Month: July 2009

Yes, I have created another Democratic gerrymander. I think the redistrictors in Arizona  must create competitive districts. I was able to create some competitive ones. My main objectives were to strengthen Gabrielle Giffords, Ann Kirkpatrick and Harry Mitchell. They are all Democrats elected to the U.S House in 2006 and 2008 in districts that McCain won in the single digits. Except maybe for Kirkpatrick, I probably strengthened those Democrats. I was able to weaken John Shadegg enough to attract strong competition. As for the other Republicans, I kept their district safely Republican while creating two new Republican districts. I had to do that because all those Republicans had to go somewhere. It is pretty difficult to aim for a 5-5 or 6-4 Democratic delegation in a state McCain won with 53% of the vote. Now here are the maps.

Northern Arizona

Southern Arizona

Phoenix area

Tucson area

District 1 Ann Kirkpatrick (D) Blue

I am sorry I could not strengthen Kirkpatrick much. The best I could do was to remove only a small slice of Conservative Yavapai County. Also, I wish I could include the Hopi Reservation to allow more Democrats but because of a rivalry with the Navajo, I am unable to put both tribes in the same districts. Except for taking out a bit of Yavapai County, the district pretty much remains the same. Since Kirkpatrick easily won here by 16 points, she should be safe enough. McCain probably won 53% of the vote here. Racial stats are 16% Hispanic, 21% Native American and 60% White. Status is Likely Democratic.

District 2 Trent Franks (R) Green

This district stays pretty much the same except I moved a bit of eastern Glendale and western Phoenix out of the district. I took in some White parts of Yuma County and a bit more of Coconino County which totals to about only 7,000 people. This district probably voted about 60% for McCain. Racial stats are 17% Hispanic and 73% White. Status is Safe Republican.

District 3 John Shadegg (R) Bright Purple

Shadegg should be in for a tough race with this map. I removed the more Conservative northern part of his district. Even though I slipped in part of the current Republican 2nd district, this should not alter the political leanings of this district enough. To weaken Shadegg tremendously, I added in parts of the heavily Hispanic 4th district. This increases the Hispanic population from 14% to 30%. In 2008, Shadegg said he wanted to retire and then retracted the statement. Such a shaky district would probably propel him to retire. With Shadegg gone, this district is a prime pickup for the Democrats. The redistricting panel will like it because it is competitive enough. Obama probably won 51% of the vote here and he certainly would have won more voters if McCain were not from Arizona. The racial stats are 30% Hispanic and 59% White. Status is Toss Up if Shadegg stays, Lean Democrat if he retires.

District 4 Ed Pastor (D) Red

I had to move this district into some Republican areas to strengthen Obama’s performance in other districts. I remember Michael Barone in the Almanac of American Politics 2006 said that Republicans can dominate because they win fast growing areas. Well Michael, did you know that the fastest growing Arizona district is the heavily Hispanic 4th? The growth of Hispanics has been useful in shoring up other districts. Still, Ed Pastor should be fine in this majority Hispanic district. Obama probably won 64% of the vote here. Racial stats are 6% African American, 58% Hispanic and 31% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 5 Harry Mitchell (D) Yellow

I removed most of northern Scottsdale from the district and part of Tempe. I substituted that by adding part of the current 4th district to boost the Hispanic population here. Mitchell is in his late 60’s and he may retire soon. This district should be safe for him or any other Democrat who represents it. Minorities should become the majority here in a few years. Obama probably won 54% of the vote here. Racial stats are 5% African American, 34% Hispanic and 53% White. Status is Likely Democrat if Mitchell retires, Safe Democrat while he represents it.

District 6 Jeff Flake (R) Teal

I kept Flake’s district pretty much the way it used to be. I removed all of Pinal County and kept the district centered on Mesa (just for trivia, Mesa is larger than Cleveland, OH but most people in the East have never heard of it.)  There are a few Hispanic neighborhoods in Mesa but they should not be nearly enough to offset the Republican majorities in the rest of the city. McCain probably won 60% of the vote here. Racial stats are 23% Hispanic and 68% White. Status is Safe Republican.

District 7 Raul Griljava (D) Gray

This district is about the same except I moved most of the Tucson area and substituted it with heavily Hispanic areas in Phoenix. I took out some Republican areas in Yuma as well as La Paz County. The Pinal County portion stays the same except I added a few Hispanic precincts. Since this district has a Hispanic majority, Griljava should not worry. Obama probably won 55% of the vote here. That should be safe enough. Racial stats are 5% African American, 5% Native American, 54% Hispanic and 34% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 8 Gabrielle Giffords (D) Purple

One of my priorities was to protect Giffords from a strong challenge even though she seems pretty safe in her district. To protect her, I removed every inch of Cochise County from this district and replaced it with almost all of Tucson and some Hispanic areas in Pinal County. With Republican battles for the 10th district over in Cochise County, Giffords should have no strong opponent. Obama probably won 54% of the vote here. Racial stats are 35% Hispanic and 55% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 9 No Incumbent (R) Light blue

If a Republican does not win here, I am shocked. I removed the whitest areas I could find from the 3rd and 5th districts and slipped in parts of the 6th district due to population growth. It would be great if someone could tell me about state legislators who might run here but former Congressman J.D Hayworth might take a run at this seat. I imagine there will be a big Republican battle for the seat but Democrats will have token opposition. McCain probably received 62% of the vote here. Racial stats are 12% Hispanic (the lowest amount for any of my districts) and 81% White (the highest for any of my districts.) Status is Safe Republican.

District 10 No Incumbent (R) Pink

This district basically takes in Republican parts of the old 8th, 7th and 1st districts. With the more Democratic areas in those districts, the 10th should stay heavily Republican. The only possible problem is growth of Hispanics but that should not be an issue for awhile. The competition in this district will be in the Republican primary. The candidates could be Randy Graf from the southern part of the district or someone from Maricopa/Pinal County. McCain probably won 59%-60% of the vote here. Racial stats are 22% Hispanic and 69% White. Status is Safe Republican.

Previous diaries:

Today: Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware

Summary:

Colorado has 7 representatives: 5 Democrats and 2 Republicans.  The only seat that might be in danger is Markey’s in CO-04

Connecticut has 5 representative, all Democrats

Delaware has 1 representative, a Republican, and its a potential gain for the Democrats.

Sources:

House vote in 2008 from WaPo

VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)

Race Tracker

Obama vote by CD from Swing State

National Atlas for maps

and my previous diaries.

District: CO-01

Location This oddly shaped district includes metro Denver, southern suburbs like Glendale, south to Sheridan and Cherry Hills Village, and northeast in a stair step pattern map

Cook PVI D+21

Representative Diana DeGette (D)

VoteView rank 93/447

First elected  1996

2008 margin 72-24 over George Lilly

2006 margin 80-20 (against a Green)

2004 margin 73-25

Obama margin 74-24

Bush margin 2004 31-68

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 30% Latino (49th place)

Assessment Safe

District: CO-02

Location Boulder, and points west, in the Rockies.  Also the exurbs of Denver map

Cook PVI  D +11

Representative Jared Polis

VoteView rank 187.5/447

First elected  2008

2008 margin 62-34 over Scott Starin

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin NA

Bush margin 2004 41-58

Current opponents Scott Starin is running again.

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Polis won easily in 2008, should be safe

District: CO-03

Location Western Colorado (bordering UT), and east along the southern edge (bordering NM), includes Durango and Pueblo and Aspen map

Cook PVI R + 5

Representative John Salazar (D) Not confirmed

VoteView rank 207/447

First elected  2004

2008 margin 61-39 over Wayne Wolf

2006 margin 62-37

2004 margin 51-47

Obama margin 47-50

Bush margin 2004 55-44

Current opponents Martin Beeson

Demographics Relatively rural (39%, 95th place) few Blacks (0.7%, 23rd least) or Asians (0.5%, rank NA) but 21.5% Latino (69th most)

Assessment This is a Republican district, but Salazar, a moderate Democrat, seems safe.  It’d be nice to have a more progressive rep, but better a blue dog than a red Repub.  

District: CO-04

Location Shaped like a backwards F, this is eastern CO (bordering KS and NE) and moves a bit west to Fort Collins (bordering WY) and the northwestern suburbs of Denver map

Cook PVI R + 6

Representative Betsey Markey (D) Not confirmed

VoteView rank NA

First elected  2008

2008 margin 56-44 over Marilyn Musgrave

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 49-50

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Current opponents  Two confirmed Republicans and a bunch of possibles (see Wiki

Demographics 23rd fewest Blacks (0.7%)

Assessment This is a Republican district; Musgrave was an awful person; even if Markey runs, it will probably be hard-fought.

District: CO-05

Location Central CO, including Colorado Springs map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative Doug Lamborn (R)

VoteView rank 439.5/447

First elected  2006

2008 margin 60-37 over Hal Bidlack

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 40-59

Bush margin 2004 66-33

Current opponents None declared.  Possible primary challenge

Demographics More veterans than all but 4 districts, and the 33rd most Republican district.

Assessment A long shot

District: CO-06

Location Exurbs of Denver, and a large area south and east of Denver map

Cook PVI R + 8

Representative Mike Coffman (R) Not confirmed

VoteView rank NA

First elected  2008

2008 margin 60-40 over Hank Eng

2006 margin 59-40

2004 margin 59-39

Obama margin 46-53

Bush margin 2004 60-39

Current opponents Two declared Democrats:

David Canter

and

John Flerlage

I don’t have a strong sense of either of them.

Assessment This is a Republican district; if Coffman runs, it’s a longshot.  Even if he does not, it will be tough.

District: CO-07

Location More of suburban Denver, and a long strip eastward map

Cook PVI D + 4

Representative Ed Perlmutter (D)

VoteView rank 203.5/447

First elected  2006

2008 margin 63-37 over John Lerew

2006 margin 55-42

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 59-40

Bush margin 2004 48-51

Current opponents Brian Campbell

Demographics Not unusual in what I track

Assessment Of the Democrats in CO, this is probably the  least safe, but the Republicans don’t even have a declared candidate

District: CT-01

Location Shaped like a backwards C, including Hartford and suburbs, running north to tha border of MA, and looping south and then west to almost form a circle map

Cook PVI D + 13

Representative John Larson (D) Not confirmed

VoteView rank 119.5

First elected  1998

2008 margin 71-26 over Joe Visconti

2006 margin 74-26

2004 margin 73-27

Obama margin 66-33

Bush margin 2004 39-60

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on things I track

Assessment Safe

District: CT-02

Location Eastern CT, bordering RI, MA and Long Island Sound, including Storrs and New London map

Cook PVI D + 6

Representative Joe Courtney (D)

VoteView rank 137/447

First elected  2006

2008 margin 65-32 over Sean Sullivan

2006 margin 83 votes

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 59-40

Bush margin 2004  44-54

Current opponents Matthew Daly and Daria Novak

Demographics 31st fewest people in poverty (5.8%)

Assessment One close race, one easy victory.  I won’t say “safe” but it looks good.  Novak’s website is like a joke (see the Wiki for a link), with no  issues and some pix of her at a tea party. Daly has a more professional website, but he’s a wingnut, not suited to the district.

District: CT-03

Location New Haven and areas around it map

Cook PVI D + 9

Representative Rosa DeLauro

VoteView rank 93/447

First elected  1990

2008 margin 77-20 over Bo Itshaky

2006 margin 76-22

2004 margin 72-25

Obama margin 63-36

Bush margin 2004 42-56

Current opponents Itshaky is running again.

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: CT-04

Location NYC suburbs – Stamford, Darien, Norwalk, Bridgeport, bordering NY and Long Island Sound map

Cook PVI D + 5

Representative Jim Himes (D)

VoteView rank NA

First elected  2008

2008 margin 51-48 over Chris Shays

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 60-40

Bush margin 2004 48-52

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 30th richest district (median income = $67K)

Assessment Himes won a close one over the incumbent Shays; how safe this is probably depends on the opponent.

District: CT-05

Location Western CT, bordering NY and MA, but going inland to New Britain and Meriden map

Cook PVI D + 2

Representative Chris Murphy (D)

VoteView rank 142/447

First elected  2006

2008 margin 59-39 over David Capiello

2006 margin 54-44

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 56-42

Bush margin 2004 49-49

Current opponents Justin Bernier

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Probably safe.

District: DE-AL

Location Delaware.  

Cook PVI D + 7

Representative Mike Castle (R) Not confirmed

VoteView rank 250/447

First elected  1992

2008 margin 61-38 over Karen Hartley Nagle

2006 margin 57-39

2004 margin 69-30

Obama margin 62-37

Bush margin 2004 46-53

Current opponents John Carney and Scott Spencer; neither website has much on the issues.

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Castle used to win more easily, and he’s getting older, and has been ill, and Delaware is more and more Democratic…. we have a shot!

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (7/6-8, likely voters, no trendlines):

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 44

John Kasich (R): 39

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±4%)

R2K is now the third straight pollster to peg Strickland in the mid-to-low 40s, apparently solving the OH-Gov polling mystery. This is not a pretty chart:

One important thing to note, though: R2K has Obama’s favorables at 59-35 in Ohio, while Quinnipiac pegs them at 49-44. R2K is probably the outlier, though, as the two firms show similar favorables for Strickland, and Q’s job approval numbers for Obama now match up with PPP’s.

As a result of this recent nosedive, the Swing State Project is changing its rating on OH-Gov from Likely Dem to Lean Dem. Of course, it’s early; if Strickland can pull out of this tailspin, then we’ll be ready to adjust our rating once again as needed.

R2K also looked at the Senate race:

Lee Fisher (D): 22

Jennifer Brunner (D): 17

Undecided: 61

(MoE: ±5%)

Lee Fisher (D): 42

Rob Portman (R): 35

Undecided: 23

Jennifer Brunner (D): 40

Rob Portman (R): 36

Undecided: 24

(MoE: ±4%)

These numbers are very similar to those shown by Quinnipiac and PPP.

RaceTracker: OH-Gov | OH-Sen

UT-Austin (6/11-22, GOP voters, 2/24-3/6 in parens):

Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): 27 (36)

Rick Perry (R-inc): 38 (30)

Leo Berman (R): 1

Other: 7 (11)

Undecided: 26 (24)

(MoE: ±5.2%)

This is the third poll we’ve seen of the Texas gubernatorial primary since May (Rasmussen gave Perry a four-point lead, but a Baselice internal for Perry had KBH ahead by seven), and they all point to what appears to be one hell of a battle ahead of us. Despite KBH’s broad popularity in the state, Perry is still posting competitive numbers, and he’s no pushover when it comes to fundraising, either; he ended June with $9 million in the bank after raising $4.2 million in the last nine days of the month (the first period of the year in which he could legally accept donations).

Of course, with this poll’s rather rotund margin of error and its elongated sampling period, take this one with as many grains of salt as you desire. Less useful are these numbers of the Democratic primary:

Kinky Friedman (D): 13

Leticia Van de Putte (D): 12

Tom Schieffer (D): 3

Mark Thompson (D): 2

Someone else: 14

Undecided: 62

(MoE: ±6%)

Yeah, that’s right: Kinky Effin’ Friedman is leading the Democratic pack at this point, just barely nosing non-candidate Leticia Van de Putte. (Although, I suppose that “Someone else” technically has the lead…) Not included in this poll is former Travis Co. DA Ronnie Earle, who recently filed papers for a statewide run. It’s unclear, though, if Earle is more interested in Governor or Attorney General.

UT also included a Senate special election question in this round, and they found Democrat John Sharp leading the pack with a whopping 10% of the vote, followed closely by a pack of seven other candidates. With 62% of the electorate undecided, I think we can sit on this one until the race becomes a bit more defined. Full results are available here.

RaceTracker: TX-Gov | TX-Sen

Public Policy Polling (7/7-8, registered voters):

R.T. Rybak (D): 43

Norm Coleman (R): 37

Mark Dayton (D): 41

Norm Coleman (R): 39

Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D): 34

Norm Coleman (R): 42

(MoE: ±2.5%)

Perhaps bolstered by the recent spate of reports that Norm Coleman (now in need of a new job) is considering running for Governor, PPP took a decidedly Coleman-centric approach in their first poll of next year’s Minnesota governor’s race. (Which is fine; they had to start somewhere, considering that there are at least 10 interested candidates on both the Democratic and Republican sides of the ledger, and they probably didn’t want to run a poll with 100 permutations.)

It looks like Norm Coleman may have done himself no favors by dragging out the aftermath of the Minnesota Senate race for so long. Coleman sports dreadful 38-52 favorables, and 54% of respondents say that his conduct during the post-election scrum made them less likely to vote for him (as opposed to 26% saying “more likely”). Coleman loses head-to-heads against popular Minneapolis mayor R.T. Rybak (who has 37-24 favorables) and even, by 2 points, against luckless former Senator Mark Dayton (who has 36-37 favorables). Coleman does manage to beat state House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (who has only 24-33 favorables). Of course, with such wide-open fields, it seems distinctly possible that none of the persons mentioned above will be around for the general election; I’m left wondering how these same Democrats would fare against a more generic Republican.

RaceTracker: MN-Gov

So says the Chicago Sun-Times:

Sneed has learned U.S. Sen. Roland Burris has decided NOT to seek election to the seat he fought the government to keep.

Sen. Burris is planning to announce his decision Friday by issuing a statement to the press. But he’s reportedly not planning to field any questions from the press.

The decision by Burris was based on his inability to raise campaign funds; campaign disclosures with the Federal Election Commission are expected to be filed next week…and he has reportedly only raised approximately $20,000

Presumably Burris is also seeking an early exit in order to spend more time with his mausoleum.

RaceTracker: IL-Sen

Man, this is turning into a crazy day:

Sen. John Ensign (R-Nev.) Thursday acknowledged that his family made nearly $100,000 in payments to family members of his former mistress after her husband, a longtime aide and personal friend, discovered the relationship.

Since Ensign admitted his affair with former campaign staffer Cynthia Hampton, he has repeatedly denied making payments to her, her husband, Doug, or other members of the family.

But in a statement released by his attorney Thursday afternoon, Ensign for the first time acknowledged that in April 2008, his family – backed by his father’s casino and land development empire – made a series of payments to both Hamptons and their children, totaling $96,000.

“In April 2008, Senator John Ensign’s parents each made gifts to Doug Hampton, Cindy Hampton, and two of their children in the form of a check totaling $96,000. Each gift was limited to $12,000. The payments were made as gifts, accepted as gifts and complied with tax rules governing gifts. After the Senator told his parents about the affair, his parents decided to make the gifts out of concern for the well-being of long-time family friends during a difficult time. The gifts are consistent with a pattern of generosity by the Ensign family to the Hamptons and others,” Ensign’s lawyer Paul Coggins said in a statement.

Pattern of generosity! I think Ensign needs to resign. It’s not just the payoffs, but the fact that he lied about them and tried to hide them.

Whoa whoa whoa:

The Senate deadlock may be over.

Rogue Democrat Pedro Espada Jr., who collaborated with Republicans in a June 8 coup that toppled Majority Leader Malcolm Smith, is returning to the fold, sources said.

That will give Democrats a 32-30 majority and, ostensibly, allow the Senate to convene and vote on crucial legislation, like mayoral control of city schools and a city sales tax hike.

Under the deal, Malcolm Smith will be the Senate president, several senators said.

Espada (D-Bronx) and Democratic conference leader John Sampson will serve as co-majority leaders, they said.

Jesus wow.

UPDATE: Espada is scum, the Senate leaders suck, this has been a huge mess & massive waste of money… but the one silver lining here is that Tom Golisano can seriously, seriously suck it.

• AL-02: Noted sartorialist Bobby Bright was photographed (proudly?) holding up a t-shirt with the logo “Fire Congress” on the front. Also be sure to check out the shirt Bright himself is actually wearing.

• IL-Gov: GOP state Sen. Kirk Dillard formally announced his entrance into the race today.

• MI-09: Former GOP state Rep. Andrew Raczkowski has filed paperwork to run against Dem Rep. Gary Peters in this D+2 district. “Rocky,” as he is known, got hammered by Carl Levin in the 2002 Senate race, 61-38.

• MN-06: Dem state Sen. Tarryl Clark, generally considered a possible MN-Gov candidate, may turn her attention instead to Michele Bachmann. Of course, she’d face a contested primary against El Tinklenberg (who was last seen giving $250,000 from his unexpected 2008 surplus to the DCCC).

• NC-Sen: Civitas has Sen. Richard Burr’s favorables at 31-19, which is the weakest they’ve been all year. I don’t quite understand why 50% are either undecided or haven’t heard enough, though. Meanwhile, Burr’s pollster Paul Shumaker, who did a garbagey poll for Burr and then pretended it was an independent survey, will now pay for the poll out of his own pocket and call it an in-kind contribution to the campaign. Nice try, bucko.

• NJ-Gov: Rasmussen has Chris Christie up 46-39. Believe it or not, that’s good news – last month, it was 51-38. Don’t get too excited, though. With leaners, it’s 53-41. Obama can’t show up here soon enough.

• NV-Sen: Oklahoma Sen. Tom Coburn advised John Ensign to pay off his mistress’s million-dollar mortgage and move her & her husband out-of-state. Seriously.

• NYC-Mayor: Another poll – this time from Marist – shows Bloombo under 50, and his re-elects are an uninspiring 44-51, despite the fact that he’s blanketed the airwaves with zillions of ads for months. The problem is that Comptroller Bill Thompson (who clocks in at 35) doesn’t seem to be running much of a campaign.

• New York: Ken Rudin makes an interesting point – if you count “new LG” Richard Ravitch, four of NY’s six statewide elected officials… weren’t elected to the positions they now hold. Comptroller Tom DiNapoli was appointed when Alan Hevesi resigned; Gov. David Paterson was elevated when Eliot Spitzer resigned; Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand was appointed when Hillary Clinton resigned; and now Paterson is attempting to appoint Ravitch. Only Sen. Chuck Schumer and AG Andy Cuomo faced voters for their current jobs.

• OH-Sen: A good get for Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher – he just received the endorsement of the 134,000-strong Ohio branch of the United Auto Workers union.

• UT-Sen: Just when you thought the Utah GOP Senate primary couldn’t get any zanier and more chock-full of wingnuts, along comes news that new Rep. Jason Chaffetz — rising star of the movement conservatives, who just vaulted into power by out-conservativing Chris Cannon in a 2008 primary — is now thinking about a challenge to the establishment’s Bob Bennett. It’d be a pretty brash move by Chaffetz, especially since AG Mark Shurtleff is already mounting a strong primary challenge from the far right. (C)

• VA-02: Scott Rigell, who owns car dealerships “throughout the Virginia beach area,” has filed paperwork to run against Dem Rep. Glenn Nye in this R+5 district. Rigell, like the vast majority of auto dealers, is of course a Republican, but he did donate $1,000 to Obama last year.

• WA-Sen: Not that you were probably sitting up at night worrying about Patty Murray’s re-election prospects, but a poll by local pollster Elway finds her looking pretty good with 53-34 job approval. 44% say they would re-elect her and 33% say they wouldn’t, with the rest taking a wait-and-see attitude to see what sort of opposition the Washington GOP can scrape up. (C)

• Census: Looks like we may finally get a floor vote on Census Director Robert Graves’ confirmation, who is currently subject to holds by both David Vitter and Richard Shelby (over use of sampling techniques and ACORN’s involvement in the census); Harry Reid is planning a cloture vote now that we’re eight months away from the April 1 count. (C)

I’m starting up this series again.  I’m going to try to do at least 2 rounds before the 2010 election.

It will be an update of the previous series, which makes it a lot easier, as some things haven’t changed.

Today: California!

Summary: Most CA districts are very safe.  All of those that might be in play are in Republican hands, including

CA-03 Lungren (R)

CA-04 McClintock (R)

CA-19 Radonovich (R)

CA-25 McKeon (R)

CA-26 Drier (R)

CA-44 Calvert (R)

I think we might pick up 2 of these.

Sources:

House vote in 2008 from WaPo

VoteView

Race Tracker

Obama vote by CD from Swing State

National Atlas for maps

and my previous diaries.

District: CA-01

Location Northern coast of CA, bordering OR, and going inland to include suburbs of Sacramento map

Representative Mike Thompson (D)

Vote view ranking 154/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1998

2008 margin 68-24 over Zane Starkwolf

2006 margin 66-29

2004 margin 67-28 (remainder Green)

Obama margin 2008  66-32

Bush margin 2004 38-60

Current opponents Zane Starkwolf

Demographics 47th lowest percentage Black of any district (1.9% Black)

Assessment Safe

District: CA-02 May retire

Location The 2nd roughly parallels the first, but is inland, but not on the NV border, includes Yreka and Chico map

Representative Wally Herger (R)

Vote view ranking 396/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative) First elected 1986

2008 margin 57-43 over Jeff Morris

2006 margin 64-32

2004 margin 67-33

Obama margin 2008 43-55

Bush margin 2004 62-37

Current opponents None declared, Morris may run again

Demographics 42nd lowest percentage Black (1.2%); 48th most veterans (15.7%)

Assessment A long shot, whether or not Herger retires.

District: CA-03

Location One of the many oddly shaped CA districts, this one loops around Sacramento, and then runs west to the NV border map

Representative Dan Lungren (R)

Vote view ranking 378/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected 2004

2008 margin 50-44 over Bill Durston

2006 margin 59-38

2004 margin 62-35

Obama margin 2008 49-49

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Current opponents At least 3 confirmed Democrats:

Gary Davis (nice site, needs more info, esp. on issues)

Amrerish Bera (An MD, this site also needs some more info.  His parents immigrated …. from where? Where did he go to school? His issue is public health, and he sounds vaguely centrist) and

Bill Slayton (no web site, a utilities executive).

Demographics 49th most veterans (15.7%).

Assessment Lungren has won by a smaller margin each election, and Obama ran even here. Possible.  My inclination is for Davis.

District: CA-04

Location North western CA, bordering OR and (mostly) NV map

Representative  Tom McClintock (R) May retire

Vote view ranking NA (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative) NA

First elected  2008

2008 margin 622 votes out of 340,000 cast, over Charlie Brown

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 2008 44-54

Bush margin 2004 61-39

Current opponents None declared, Brown may run again.

Demographics 27th most veterans (16.6%)

Assessment This one has been close twice now. McClintock has not declared, wait and see.

District: CA-05

Location Sacramento and some suburbs map

Representative Doris Matsui (D)

Vote view ranking 87/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected 2005

2008 margin 74-21 over Paul Smith

2006 margin 71-24

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 2008 70-28

Bush margin 2004 38-61

Current opponents None declared. Smith may run again.

Demographics One of the few district that has high number of Blacks (14.4%, 106th place), Latinos (20.8%, 75th place), and non-white, non-Black, non-Latinos (21.4%, 13th place).  Only 13 districts have more than 10% of each of these groups (the district that is the ‘most’ this way is TX09).

Assessment Safe

District: CA-06

Location Coastal CA north of San Francisco map

Representative Lynn Woolsey (D)

Vote view ranking 3/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1992

2008 margin 72-24 over Mike Halliwell

2006 margin 70-26

2004 margin 73-27

Obama margin 2008 76-22

Bush margin 2004 28-70

Current opponents None declared, Halliwell may run again.

Demographics Relatively wealthy (median income = $59K, 43rd place) and very Democratic (Cook PVI D+21, 45th place)

Assessment Safe

District: CA-07

Location Starting NE of San Francisco and continuing NE to Vacaville and east to Pittsburg (no, not the one in PA!) also including El Cerrito and San Pablo map

Representative  George Miller (D)

Vote view ranking 6/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1974

2008 margin 73-22 over Roger Petersen

2006 margin 84-16 (against a Libertarian)

2004 margin 76-24

Obama margin 2008 72-27

Bush margin 2004 32-67

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 70th fewest Whites (43.2%), with large numbers of Latinos (21.4%, rank = 69), Blacks (16.8%, rank = 95), and others (18.6%, rank = 23)

Assessment Safe

District: CA-08

Location San Francisco map

Representative Nancy Pelosi (D)

Vote view ranking 101/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected   1987

2008 margin 72%, Cindy Sheehan got 16%, Dana Walsh (R) 10%

2006 margin 80-11

2004 margin 83-12

Obama margin 2008 85-12

Bush margin 2004 14-85

Notes on opponents Amazingly, the 2006 opponent raised $150K and got only 19,000 votes. Pelosi hasn’t been under 75% since her first race

Current opponents Dana Walsh is running again.

Demographics Fewer veterans than all but 24 districts (6.8%), and more people who are neither Black, Latino, nor White than all but 14 districts. Also the 18th most Democratic district per Cook PVI

Assessment  Vulnerable.  Ha!  Just seeing if you were paying attention.  Safe.

District: CA-09

Location Oakland and Berkeley and some eastern suburbs of San Francisco map

Representative Barbara Lee (D)

Vote view ranking 4/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1998

2008 margin 86-10 over Charles Hargrave

2006 margin 86-11

2004 margin 85-12

Obama margin 2008 88-10

Bush margin 2004 13-86

Notes on opponents In 2004, Bermudez raised almost $500K.  She got 31,000 votes.  

Current opponents None declared.

Demographics Like the 5th, but more so.  35% White (57th lowest), 26% Black (rank = 61), 19% Latino (83rd place), also 15.4% Asian (rank NA). Only 5 districts are more Democratic – and 4 of those are in NY.

Assessment Safe

District: CA-10

Location Eastern suburbs of San Francisco map

Representative None. Ellen Tauscher (D) resigned to take a state job.  There will be a special election.

Vote view ranking NA

First elected  NA

2008 margin NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin

Obama margin 2008 66-32

Bush margin 2004 40-59

Notes on opponents The 2004 opponent raised $150K; the 2006 opponent raised $7K. They got the same votes

Current opponents A lot of people in both parties are running, see race tracker wiki.

Demographics The 23rd wealthiest district (median income = $65K), it also has a large number of minorities.

Assessment Safe for whoever the Democrats pick.

District: CA-11

Location Central Valley, east of San Francisco. map

Representative Jerry McNerney Not confirmed

Vote view ranking 156.5/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  2006

2008 margin 55-45 over Dean Andal

2006 margin 53-47

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 2008 65-33

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Current opponents Jon del Arroz and Brad Goehring.

Demographics Quite similar to the 10th, with a lot of wealth (median income = $62K) and a lot of Latinos (19.7%, rank = 80).  

Assessment If McNerny runs, this looks increasily safe.  

District: CA-12

Location Southern suburbs of San Francisco. map

Representative Jackie Speier (D)

Vote view ranking 131/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  2008

2008 margin 75-18 over Greg Conlon

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 2008 74-24

Bush margin 2004 27-72

Current opponents None declared.

Demographics 14th wealthiest CD (median income = $70K) with 33.6% people who are neither Black, Latino, nor White (rank = 13); 28.5% Asian.

Assessment Probably safe for Democrats.

District: CA-13

Location The eastern shore of San Francisco Bay. map

Representative Pete Stark (D)

Vote view ranking 1/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1972

2008 margin 76-24 over Raymond Chui

2006 margin 75-25

2004 margin 72-24

Obama margin 2008 74-24

Bush margin 2004 28-71

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Quite similar to the 12th

Assessment Safe.  Stark is one of the most outspoken liberals in the House.  Go Pete! Tell it like it is. Someone has to!  VoteView ranks him most progressive of all in the House.

District: CA-14

Location Coastal CA south of San Francisco, including Menlo Park and Palo Alto. map

Representative Anna Eshoo (D)

Vote view ranking 122.5/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1992

2008 margin 70-22 over Ronny Santana

2006 margin 71-24

2004 margin 70-27

Obama margin 2008 73-25

Bush margin 2004 33-68

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Third wealthiest district (only NJ11 and VA11 are higher median income), also 17th highest percentage of non-White, non-Black, non-Latinos.

Assessment Safe

District: CA-15

Location A long, narrow district running north-south, from Santa Clara to Gilroy map

Representative Mike Honda (D)

Vote view ranking 8.5/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected 2000

2008 margin 72-20 over Joyce Cordi

2006 margin 72-28

2004 margin 72-28

Obama margin 2008 68-30

Bush margin 2004 36-63

Current opponents None declared, but Honda has a primary challenger: Joe Simitian, now a state senator.

Demographics Another wealthy (median income = $75K) district with lots of minorities (29.2% Asian)

Assessment Safe

District: CA-16

Location San Jose and south of San Jose to San Martin map

Representative Zoe Lofgren (D)

Vote view ranking 77/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1994

2008 margin 71-24 over Charel Winston

2006 margin 73-27

2004 margin 71-26

Obama margin 2008 70-29

Bush margin 2004 36-63

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Very similar to the 15th.  The 8th most non-Latino, non-Black, non-Whites of any district; 6th most outside Hawaii.  

Assessment Safe

District: CA-17

Location Coastal California from Santa Cruz south to Monterrey and beyond map

Representative Sam Farr (D)

Vote view ranking 54/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1993

2008 margin 73-27 over Jeff Taylor

2006 margin 76-23

2004 margin 67-29

Obama margin 2008 72-26

Bush margin 2004 33-66

Current opponents None declared.

Demographics The 31st most Latinos of any district (42.9%)

Assessment Safe.  Farr has quietly worked on district issues, while being solidly liberal on national ones

District: CA-18

Location Central Valley map

Representative Dennis Cardoza (D)

Vote view ranking 201/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  2002

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin 65-35

2004 margin 68-33

Obama margin 2008 59-39

Bush margin 2004 50-49

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Like the above districts, the 18th has a lot of Latinos (41.9%, 33rd). Unlike them, it is quite poor (median income = $34K, 84th lowest).

Assessment Safe.  Cardoza is relatively centrist, and wins easily in this swing district; safer than ever, now, as the 18th has moved more Democratic.

District: CA-19

Location If there is a middle of CA, this is it. map

Representative George Radonovich (R) May retire

Vote view ranking 363.5/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1994

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin 61-39

2004 margin 66-27

Obama margin 2008 46-52

Bush margin 2004 61-38  

Current opponents Les Marsden, a somewhat odd website.  Marsden is a professional musician and actor.  He seems good on some issues (e.g. he’s for nationalized health care) although he’s centrist on e.g. fiscal policy.

Demographics Another district with lots of Latinos (28.2%, rank = 55)

Assessment If Radanovich retires, Marsden might have a shot.

District: CA-20

Location More of the Central Valley map

Representative Jim Costa (D)

Vote view ranking 201/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected 2004

2008 margin 74-26 over Jim Lopez

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 53-47

Obama margin 2008 60-39

Bush margin 2004 48-51

Current opponents Josh Miller, apparently a right wing nut, and conservative Christian, chaired a “Yes on 8” campaign.

Demographics 25th fewest Whites of any district (21.4%), and 13th most Latinos (63.1%)

Assessment A moderate Democrat in an increasingly Democratic district, Costa seems relatively safe, but it bears a little watching.

DONE TO HERE

District: CA-21

Location Porterville and north of Porterville in the Central Valley map

Representative Devin Nunes (R)

Vote view ranking 365/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  2002

2008 margin 68-32 over Larry Johnson

2006 margin 67-30

2004 margin 73-27

Obama margin 2008 42-56

Bush margin 2004 65-34

Current opponents None declaredhttp://www.opencongress.org/wiki/CA-21

Demographics Similar to the other Central Valley districts

Assessment Long shot

District: CA-22

Location Runs east-west, the southern edge of the Central Valley map

Representative Kevin McCarthy (R)

Vote view ranking 363.5/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  2006

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin 71-29

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 2008 38-60

Bush margin 2004 31-68

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on variables I track

Assessment Long shot.

District: CA-23

Location A weird, long, skinny strip along the coast from San Luis Obispo to Oxnard, not really contiguous, plus a couple islands map.

Representative Lois Capps (D) Not confirmed

Vote view ranking 72/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1998

2008 margin 68-32 over Matt Kokkonen

2006 margin 65-35

2004 margin 63-34

Obama margin 2008 66-32

Bush margin 2004 40-58

Current opponents None declared.

Demographics Another district with a lot of Latinos (41.7%, rank = 34)

Assessment Safe.  

District: CA-24

Location Just interior to most of CA-23 map

Representative Elton Gallegly (R) May retire

Vote view ranking 341/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1986

2008 margin 58-42 over Marta Jorgensen

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin 63-34

Obama margin 2008 51-48

Bush margin 2004 56-43

Current opponents Jill Martinez (ran before, but I can’t find a current website), Shawn Stern, possibly others

Demographics The 35th wealthiest district (median income = $68K).

Assessment Gallegly has had a couple close races (in 2000 and in 1992); Jorgensen didn’t do well in 2008, but this could be close again, whether Gallegly runs or not.

District: CA-25

Location map

Representative Buck McKeon (R) Possibly retiring

Vote view ranking 356/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected 1992

2008 margin 58-42 over Jackie Conaway

2006 margin 60-36

2004 margin 64-36

Obama margin 2008 49-48

Bush margin 2004 59-40

Current opponents Jacquese Conaway is running again, but I can’t find a current website.

Demographics 56th most Latinos (27.1%)

Assessment This is Republican territory, but Obama did win the district.

District: CA-26

Location Northeastern suburbs of Los Angeles, east to Upland and Rancho Cucamunga map

Representative David Dreier (R)

Vote view ranking 366/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1980

2008 margin 53-40 over Russ Warner

2006 margin 57-38

2004 margin 54-43

Obama margin 2008 51-47

Bush margin 2004 55-44

Current opponents Russ Warner is running again. This website could use some help.

Demographics A fairly wealthy district (median income = 59K, rank = 44) with a lot of Asians (15.2%)

Assessment Warner lost badly even though Obama took the district, so this doesn’t look too good; still, his name recognition is up, so it’s at least possible.

District: CA-27

Location Shaped like an upside-down U, the middle of the U is CA-28.  This is north of Beverly Hills, and includes Northridge and Reseda. map

Representative Brad Sherman (D)

Vote view ranking 112.5/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1996

2008 margin 68-25 over Navraj Singh

2006 margin 69-31

2004 margin 62-33

Obama margin 2008 66-32

Bush margin 2004 39-59

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Another district with a lot of Asians (10.5%) and Latinos (36.5%, rank = 38).

Assessment Safe

District: CA-28

Location San Fernando valley, including Van Nuys. The 28th is shaped like an upside-down T map

Representative Howard Berman (D)

Vote view ranking 87/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1982

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin 74-19

2004 margin 71-23

Obama margin 2008 76-22

Bush margin 2004 28-71

Current opponents None declared.

Demographics Fewer veterans (5.9%) than all but 13 districts.  Fewer Whites (31.4%) than all but 47 districts. More Latinos (55.6%) than all but 21.

Assessment Safe

District: CA-29

Location Another oddly shaped district, shaped sort of like a number 7, with two antennae coming out of the top map

Representative Adam Schiff (D)

Vote view ranking 125/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected 2000

2008 margin 69-27 over Charles Hahn

2006 margin 63-27

Obama margin 2008 68-30

2004 margin 65-30

Bush margin 2004 37-61

Current opponents None declared.  Hahn will not run.

Demographics More non-White, non-Black, non-Latinos than any but 5 districts (23.7% Asian)

Assessment Safe

District: CA-30

Location Coastal California, Beverly Hills to Malibu map

Representative Henry Waxman

Vote view ranking 57.5/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1974

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin 71-26

2004 margin 71-29

Obama margin 2008 70-28

Bush margin 2004 33-66

Current opponents None declared, but there is a primary challenge from Tony Dolz, who would be a blue dog, from his website.  In fact, he sounds like a Republican, not a Democrat at all.

Demographics Wealthy (median income = 61K, rank = 44), lots of Asians (8.8%), few veterans (8.3%, rank = 41).

Assessment Safe

District: CA-31

Location Yet another oddly shaped district, something like a W on its side, centered on Hollywood map

Representative Xavier Becerra (D) Not declared

Vote view ranking 77/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1992

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 80-20

Obama margin 2008 80-18

Bush margin 2004 22-77

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Fewer veterans than any other district (3.7%), fewer Whites (9.8%) than any except NY16, more Latinos (70.2%) than any but 5 districts. More Democratic (per Cook PVI) than any but 32.

Assessment Safe.

District: CA-32

Location Yes, it’s another oddly shaped district, it’s shaped a little like NY State, in the northeastern suburbs of Los Angeles map.  

Representative None (Solis resigned to take a state job)

Vote view ranking NA

First elected  2000

2008 margin NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 2008 68-30

Bush margin 2004 37-62

Current opponents Lots of candidates.

Demographics Like the 31st, but not quite as extreme.

Assessment Safe for whichever Democrat wins

District: CA-33

Location This one is shaped sort of like a teakettle in Los Angeles.  This is one of the smallest districts in the US (just 48 square miles) map

Representative Diane Watson

Vote view ranking 25/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  2001

2008 margin 87-13 over David Crowley

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 89-11 (against a Libertarian)

Obama margin 2008 87-12

Bush margin 2004 16-83

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents None declared.

Demographics Relatively poor (median income = $32K, 46th lowest), with many minorities (29.9% Black, rank = 37; 34.6% Latino, rank = 33) and very Democratic (Cook PVI = D+36, rank = 7)

Assessment Safe

District: CA-34

Location Los Angeles, centering on Broadway map

Representative Lucille Roybal-Allard (D)

Vote view ranking 87/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1992

2008 margin 77-23 over Chris Balding

2006 margin 77-23

2004 margin 74-26

Obama margin 2008 75-23

Bush margin 2004 30-69

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Fewer Whites than any but 3 districts; more Latinos than any but 3 districts (TX15,16 and 28) and lower median income ($30K) than any but 24 districts.

Assessment Safe

District: CA-35

Location Los Angeles, including Gardena, South Central, and Inglewood map

Representative Maxine Waters (D)

Vote view ranking 14/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1990

2008 margin 82-14 over Ted Hayes

2006 margin 84-8-8 (against two minor parties)

2004 margin 81-15

Obama margin 2008 84-14

Bush margin 2004 20-79

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 3rd fewest Whites (10.4%), 32nd most Blacks (34.1%) and 26 most Latinos (47.4%)

Assessment Safe

District: CA-36

Location Los Angeles along Santa Monica Bay and the Pacific map

Representative Jane Harman (D)

Vote view ranking 93/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  2000

2008 margin 68-32 over Brian Gibson

2006 margin 63-32

2004 margin 62-33

Obama margin 2008 64-34

Bush margin 2004 40-59

Current opponents No declared Republicans but she has a primary challenger: Marcy Winograd (no web site yet) who is pledging to be a true progressive.  I don’t know if she has a chance, but, in this safe district, a real progressive would be good. Other Democrats may run as well.

Demographics 27th most non-Blacks, non-Whites, non-Latinos

Assessment Safe for any Democrat.

District: CA-37

Location Long Beach map

Representative Laura Richardson (D)

Vote view ranking 93/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  2007

2008 margin 75-25 over Nick Dibs (Indep), no R.

2006 margin NA (she won her 2007 race 67-25, with almost no one voting – a total of about 21,000 people)

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 2008 80-19

Bush margin 2004 25-74

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Similar to the other Los Angeles districts

Assessment Safe

District: CA-38

Location Another weirdly shaped district, shaped sort of like a 7 on it’s side, with the middle of the 7 in East Los Angeles, then extending south about 8 miles to Norwalk, and east about 20 miles to Pomona map

Representative  Grace Napolitano (D)

Vote view ranking 77/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1998

2008 margin 82-14 over Chris Agrella (Lib). No R.

2006 margin 75-25

2004 margin Unopposed

Obama margin 2008 71-27

Bush margin 2004 34-65

Current opponents none declared

Demographics Again, similar to those above

Assessment Safe

District: CA-39

Location Horseshoe shaped district including Whittier, Cerritos and Lynwood map

Representative Linda Sanchez (D)

Vote view ranking 119.5/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected   2002

2008 margin 69-31 over Diane Lenning

2006 margin 66-34

2004 margin 61-39

Obama margin 2008 65-32

Bush margin 2004 40-59

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 21st fewest Whites (21%), 18th most Latinos (61.2%), modest income (median = $45K, 153rd place)

Assessment Safe

District: CA-40

Location An inverted horseshoe, it caps CA47 and includes Cypress, Fullerton and Orange map

Representative Ed Royce (R)

Vote view ranking 439.5/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected 1992

2008 margin 63-27 over Christina Avalos

2006 margin 67-31

2004 margin 68-32

Obama margin 2008 47-51

Bush margin 2004 60-39

Current opponents : None declared

Demographics Demographically, hard to distinguish from the Democratic districts in the area

Assessment A long shot.

District: CA-41

Location A wedge shaped district, running east-west. In the west, it includes Redlands, Highland and Yucalpa (the eastern edge of the Los Angeles basin) and runs west through desert to the border of AZ and NV map

Representative Jerry Lewis (R)

Vote view ranking 305/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected 1978

2008 margin 62-38 over Tim Prince

2006 margin 67-33

2004 margin 83-17 (against a Libertarian)

Obama margin 2008 44-54

Bush margin 2004 62-37

Current opponents : None declared.

Demographics Lots of veterans (16.1%, 39th place)

Assessment Long shot.

District: CA-42

Location A funnel shaped district, with the top running from La Habita to Chino, and the point in Mission Viejo map

Representative Gary Miller (R) Not confirmed

Vote view ranking 355/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1998

2008 margin 60-40 over Ed Chau

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 68-32

Obama margin 2008 45-53

Bush margin 2004 62-37

Current opponents : Michael Williamson, a strange website.

Demographics 13th wealthiest district (median income = $70K), with a large Asian population (15.9%)

Assessment Another Republican district, but Miller may also be a crook: He seems fond of claiming that his land was taken under eminent domain, and thus dodging taxes, and is under FBI investigation. He also uses his staff to run his personal errands…..uh oh…. and now he’s running against a cop.

District: CA-43

Location Runs east-west from Ontario to San Bernadino map

Representative Joe Baca (D)

Vote view ranking 158.5/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1999

2008 margin 68-32 over John Roberts

2006 margin 64-36

2004 margin 66-34

Obama margin 2008 68-30

Bush margin 2004 41-58

Current opponents None declared.

Demographics Similar to many of the California districts: Lots of Latinos, few veterans, few Whites.

Assessment Safe for Democrats; Baca is fairly centrist, so the primaries might be worth looking at

District: CA-44

Location runs NE to SW, with the northeasternmost city being Riverside, and the southwesternmost being San Clemente map

Representative Ken Calvert (R)

Vote view ranking 318/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1992

2008 margin 52-48 over Bill Hedrick

2006 margin 60-37

2004 margin 62-35

Obama margin 2008 50-49

Bush margin 2004 59-40

Current opponents He has a primary challenger, and then Bill Hedrick is running again.  This, to me, is what a “running for congress” site should look like.  

Demographics Another district with many Latinos (35.0%)

Assessment A Southern California Republican.  Ethical and legal troubles.  Calvert also has ties to Duke Cunningham. He was also found in a car with a prostitute, with her head in his lap, and both of them partially unclad.  He said they were just talking.  hmmmm. Where are his ears?  Hedrick looks like a good guy, e.g.

Supports EFCA

Wants Manhattan Project type thing for energy technology

I will fight not only to end our dependence on foreign oil, but also to hold all oil companies accountable for profiteering. I will always put our national security, the needs of our economy, and the interests and health of all Americans before the self-serving interests of oil industry lobbyists.”

District: CA-45

Location A long narrow district running east west near the southern end of CA, from Moreno Valley in the west to the AZ border map

Representative Mary Bono (R)

Vote view ranking 291/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1998

2008 margin 57-43 over Julie  Bornstein

2006 margin 61-39

2004 margin 67-33

Obama margin 2008 52-47

Bush margin 2004 56-43

Current opponents Steve Pougnet.  Too busy, in my opinion, too much motion.

Demographics Also heavily Latino (38.0%, rank = 35)

Assessment Obama won, but Bono won easily, even in 2008.

District: CA-46

Location Coastal CA including Long Beach and Costa Mesa, and some islands map

Representative Dana Rohrabacher (R) Not confirmed

Vote view ranking 416/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1988

2008 margin 53-43 over Debbie Cook

2006 margin 60-37

2004 margin 62-33

Obama margin 2008 48-50

Bush margin 2004 57-42

Current opponents No declared Democrats, but he has a primary challenger.

Demographics Another wealthy district (median income = $62K, rank = 34) with a lot of Asians (15.4%)

Assessment Another Southern California Republican with ethics problems – he’s tied to Abramoff.  Still, this is a Republican district.  

District: CA-47

Location East of the 46th and south of the 40th (both Republican) is the 48th (which is Democratic). It runs north-south, including Anaheim and Santa Ana map

Representative Loretta Sanchez (D)

Vote view ranking 119.5/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1996

2008 margin 69-26 over Rosie Avila

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin 60-40

Obama margin 2008 60-38

Bush margin 2004 50-49

Current opponents Van Tran

Demographics More Latinos (65.3%) than all but 11 districts, also 13.9% Asian.  Fewer Whites (17.3%) than all but 10 districts, fewer veterans (5.2%) than all but 9.

Assessment  Should be safe

District: CA-48

Location Coastal California from Newport Beach south to Laguna Niguel map

Representative John Campbell (R) Not confirmed

Vote view ranking 435/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  2005

2008 margin 56-41 over Steve Young

2006 margin 60-37

Obama margin 2008 49-49

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 58-40

Current opponents Beth Krom (another too flashy site, IMHO).

Demographics The 15th wealthiest district (median income = $70K)

Assessment A long shot

District: CA-49

Location A V shaped district, running from Oceanside (on the coast) to Parris and into San Diego county [map

Representative Darrell Issa

Vote view ranking 388/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  2000

2008 margin 59-37 over Robert Hamilton

2006 margin 63-33

2004 margin 63-35

Obama margin 2008 45-53

Bush margin 2004 63-36

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Another heavily Latino district (29.5%, 52nd place)

Assessment Long shot

District: CA-50

Location Coastal California from Carlsbad south to Solana Beach and a little beyond, and inland to Escondido, surrounding San Diego map

Representative Brian Billbray (R) Not confirmed

Vote view ranking 371/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  2006, but was in House 1994-2000

2008 margin 50-45 over Nick Leibham

2006 margin 53-43

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 2008 51-47

Bush margin 2004 55-44

Current opponents At least 2 Democrats: Francine Busby and Tracey Emblem.  Busby lost a squeaker a while back.  She’s good.  I don’t know much about Emblem, her site is a work in progress.

Demographics Relative wealthy (median income = $59K, 40th place).

Assessment Possible.  

District: CA-51

Location The southwest corner of CA, bordering Mexico and AZ map

Representative Bob Filner (D) Not confirmed

Vote view ranking 28.5/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected 1992

2008 margin 72-25 over David Lee Joy

2006 margin 67-30

2004 margin 62-35

Obama margin 2008 63-35

Bush margin 2004 46-53

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 22nd most Latinos (53.2%), 23rd fewest Whites (21.3%)

Assessment Probably safe

District: CA-52

Location An L shaped district, running from the San Diego suburbs east and then north through mountains and desert map

Representative Duncan Hunter (R) retiring

Vote view ranking 342/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1980

2008 margin 57-39 over Mike Lumpkin

2006 margin 65-32

2004 margin 69-28

Obama margin 2008 45-53

Bush margin 2004 61-38

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Long shot

District: CA-53

Location Central San Diego, and some suburbs map

Representative Susan Davis (D)

Vote view ranking 129.5/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  2000

2008 margin 68-28 over Michael Crimmins

2006 margin 68-30

Obama margin 2008 68-30

2004 margin 66-29

Bush margin 2004 38-61

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe