Month: July 2009

• CO-Sen: The field is slow to take shape for the Republicans in the Colorado Senate race, where they should theoretically have a decent shot at the never-before-elected and uncharismatic appointee Michael Bennet. One more candidate seems to be moving to join the field: former state Sen. Tom Weins, from the exurban GOP stronghold of Douglas County. Weins is the CEO of a real estate finance company, so he brings self-funding to the table (although some of that may be contingent on finding a buyer for his $38 million ranch). Inexperienced Aurora city councilor Ryan Frazier and grumpy Weld Co. DA Ken Buck are the leading candidates for the GOP nod for now.

• NH-Sen: The Nashua Telegraph points to some skepticism from the conservative wing of the GOP about newly minted candidate Kelly Ayotte; apparently, her joining Gov. John Lynch in urging communities to apply for stimulus funds makes her not sufficiently fiscally conservative for some in the rightosphere, who are wondering if they’ve got another Susan Collins on their hands here. With the presumably-more-conservative businessman Fred Tausch and former gubernatorial candidate Ovide Lamontagne still checking out the race, it seems like she may not have a clear primary path. Sensing some trouble here, the state party establishment is pushing back, rolling out ex-Sen. John Sununu to offer some promises that she’s a conservative, including that he “believes” that she opposes abortion rights.

• NY-Sen-B: Rep. Carolyn Maloney has apparently been holding off on her Senate primary announcement so that she won’t drive Bill Clinton off from her upcoming fundraiser. Clinton has vowed neutrality in the likely primary with Kirsten Gillibrand, and everyone is taking pains to point out that the fundraiser is for Maloney’s House account and intended as a ‘thank you’ for her support of the Hillary Clinton campaign in 2008. (Of course, she’ll still be able to transfer her House funds to a Senate race.)

• CO-Gov: Strange that the Colorado GOP is throwing all its top talent at Gov. Bill Ritter while leaving the Senate race with the second-stringers. Today 33-year-old state Senate minority leader Josh Penry made it official: he’s running for Governor, setting up a big primary collision with ex-Rep. (and Penry’s former boss, when he was a staffer) Scott McInnis.

• NJ-Gov: Dueling leaks of internal polls from the New Jersey governor’s race, as expected, paint very different pictures. The Corzine camp offers a poll showing a 4-point lead (42-38) for Chris Christie when factoring in independent Christopher Daggett (who polls at 4%). The RGA, however, has a poll giving Christie a showy lead of 15 pts. The polls were both conducted before Corzine hit the airwaves with an attack ad focusing on Christie’s ethical troubles.

• SC-Gov: The State, Columbia’s newspaper, takes a look at why, all of a sudden, Mark Sanford seems poised to survive his tango de la muerte, despite his dire straits before Sarah Palin stole the show. It’s broken down helpfully into bullet points: his wife is defending him for the first time, state law enforcement investigations found he broke no state laws, and state party leadership opted for censure rather than asking him to resign.

• MI-St. Sen.: If you haven’t seen Menhen’s diary rating our prospects in each of the upcoming Michigan State Senate races in 2010, take a peek. (The diary got some notice over at the DLCC‘s blog.) With the entire Senate up for re-election and control over Michigan redistricting in the balance, this is one of the key legislative battles in 2010… and with term limits hitting hard, there are only 8 incumbents running, with a whopping 30 open seats, so this is very much a wide-open battle.

• CfG: Roll Call takes a look at the Club for Growth under the new leadership of ex-Rep. Chris Chocola and finds, unfortunately for us, a slightly saner version of the CfG that seems more interested in playing in the general election rather than mucking up the primaries… although they did just put out that call for primary challengers against the 8 cap-and-trade defectors. For Tom Cole fans, the former NRCC head gets in some nice digs at the CfG.

After some embarrassing vacillations late last week, it looks like Mark Tiberius Kirk has an open field for the GOP Senate nod. From The Hill:

Illinois Republican Party Chairman Andy McKenna said Monday that he will not seek his state’s open Senate seat next year if Rep. Mark Kirk (R) does, clearing the way for Kirk to have a smooth primary.

Just three days after Kirk was telling colleagues that he had decided not to run because of the primary opposition, McKenna released a short statement saying he and Kirk have reached an accord.

“As party chairman my goal has been to build Party unity,” McKenna said. “Mark Kirk and I met last evening as part of an ongoing discussion about the U. S. Senate race. I reassured Mark that if he chooses to be a candidate, I will not oppose him.”

On Friday, Kirk told the Hotline that he would definitely run as long as McKenna bowed out, so it appears that thrusters are on full from here on out.

Meanwhile, for Team Blue, it’s beginning to look like state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias is consolidating a respectable level of support; earlier today, he rolled out a load of endorsements from 60 officeholders in the state, including the support of Reps. Bill Foster and Phil Hare.

RaceTracker: IL-Sen

I’m starting up this series again.  I’m going to try to do at least 2 rounds before the 2010 election.

It will be an update of the previous series, which makes it a lot easier, as some things haven’t changed.

Previous diaries:

Today: Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware

Summary:

Florida has 25 representatives: 15 Republicans and 10 Democrats

Sources:

House vote in 2008 from WaPo

VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)

Race Tracker

Obama vote by CD from Swing State

National Atlas for maps

and my previous diaries.

District: FL-01

Location The westernmost part of the panhandle, bordering AL, the Gulf of Mexico and including Pensacola map

Representative Jeff Miller (R) Not confirmed

VoteView ranking 429

First elected  2001

2008 margin 70-30 over Jim Bryan

2006 margin 69-31

2004 margin 77-22

Obama margin 32-67

Bush margin 2004 72-29

Current opponents Jim Bryan is running again, he looks like a good guy, but this is a tough district for Democrats.

Demographics Most veterans of any district (21.7%), and the 13th  most Republican district per Cook PVI

Assessment Long shot

District: FL-02

Location The middle of the panhandle, bordering AL, GA and the Gulf of Mexico, and including Tallahassee map

Representative Allen Boyd (D)

VoteView ranking 205

First elected  1996

2008 margin 62-38 over Mike Mulligan

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 62-38

Obama margin 45-54

Bush margin 2004 54-44

Current opponents There is  a primary challenge from Al Lawson daily kos diary, and then William Fisher.

Demographics 90th poorest district (median income = $35K), 60th most veterans (15.3%)

Assessment This part of FL is more like Alabama or Georgia than it is like Miami; Tallahasse (which is in the eastern part of this district) is 484 miles from Miami and 228 from Atlanta.  Boyd has shown he can win; most Democrats could not.

District: FL-03

Location The ‘joint’ where the panhandle meets the main part of the state, including (through some gerrymandering) both parts of Jacksonville and Gainesville.  This district has been the subject of lots of contoversy – it borders the 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th and 24th.  Here:



District          %Black       %Bush 04

03                  49.3          35

04                  13.5          69  

05                   4.5          58

06                  11.9          61

07                   8.8          57  

24                   6.3          55



and the borders of the 3rd are pretty tortured. map

Representative Corrine Brown (D)

VoteView ranking 173.5

First elected  1992

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin unopposed

Obama margin 73-26

Bush margin 2004 35-65

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents Jacob Hoeschst

Demographics 21st poorest district (median income = $30K), 41st most Blacks (49.3%)

Assessment Safe.  

District: FL-04

Location The eastern part of the panhandle, from Tallahassee suburbs to the Atlantic, bordering GA map

Representative Ander Crenshaw (R)

First elected  2000

2008 margin 65-35 over Jim McGovern

2006 margin 70-30

2004 margin unopposed

Obama margin 38-61

Bush margin 2004 69-31

Current opponents No confirmed Democrats.  There is a primary challenge.

Demographics 30th most veterans (17.1%); 33rd most Republican district

Assessment Long shot

District: FL-05

Location On the Gulf coast, just south of the panhandle map

Representative Ginny Brown-Waite (R)

VoteView ranking 334

First elected  2002

2008 margin 61-39 over John Russell

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin 66-34

Obama margin 43-56

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Current opponents At least 3 Democrats: Thomas Doolan (no website, only a facebook page); Jim Picillo (site in need of technical help! His quote signs are showing like diamonds, for instance), and David Werder, a perennial candidate, but definitely odd.

Demographics 12th most veterans (21.3%)

Assessment Long shot

District: FL-06

Location A boomerang shaped district in the middle of north Florida map

Representative Cliff Stearns (R)

VoteView ranking 392

First elected 1988

2008 margin 61-39 over Tim Cunha

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin 64-36

Obama margin 43-56

Bush margin 2004 61-39

Current opponents There’s a primary, and then Cunha is running again (no website yet)

Demographics 13th most veterans (18.3%)

Assessment Long shot

District: FL-07 map

Location Atlantic coast of northern FL, from north of St. Augustine to Daytona Beach

Representative John Mica (R)

VoteView ranking 367

First elected  1992

2008 margin 62-38 over Faye Armitage

2006 margin 63-37

2004 margin Unopposed

Obama margin 46-53

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Current opponents Peter Silva (no website)

Demographics 15th most veterans (17.6%)

Assessment Long shot; Silva’s facebook page does not ooze professionalism, and Mica has won easily.

District: FL-08

Location More or less the middle of FL, including Orlando map

Representative Alan Grayson (D)

VoteView ranking NA

First elected  2008

2008 margin 52-48 over Ric Keller

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 53-47

Bush margin 2004 55-45

Current opponents Todd Long

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment This is a swing district, going for Bush twice before going for Obama; it’s far from safe, but Grayson did just oust Kel

District: FL-09

Location A weirdly shaped district (Oh Gerry! Gerry!) it runs along the Gulf Coast, circles around the 10th CD, and continues, plus it runs east into Central FL, then south – it’s shaped sort of like the number 5, or more like a backwards Z rotated 90 degrees. map

Representative Gus Bilirakis (R) Not confirmed

VoteView ranking 294

First elected  2006

2008 margin 63-36 over Bill Mitchell

2006 margin 56-44

2004 margin NA (but it was his father who held the seat)

Obama margin 47-52

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Current opponents No confirmed Democrats, but there is a primary challenge

Demographics 18th most veterans (17.2%)

Assessment Long shot

District: FL-10

Location The Gulf Coast, near Tampa Bay (across the Bay from Tampa, north of St. Pete), but excluding a narrow strip that is FL-09. map

Representative Bill Young (R) Not confirmed

VoteView ranking 289

First elected  1970

2008 margin 61-39 over Bob Hackworth

2006 margin 66-34

2004 margin 69-31

Obama margin 51-47

Bush margin 2004 51-49

Current opponents If Young runs there is a primary challenge and then Hackworth is running again.

Demographics 13th most veterans (18.2%)

Assessment Young is gradually getting vulnerable.  If we get some breaks, it’s possible we could win here; still, Hackworth lost to Young in 2008.  If Young retires, it’s a new ballgame, he’s been in congress a long time and he’s nearing 80 …

District: FL-11

Location Tampa and St. Petersburg map

Representative Kathy Castor Not confirmed

VoteView ranking 98.5

First elected  2006

2008 margin 70-30 over Eddie Adams

2006 margin 70-30

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 66-33

Bush margin 2004 41-58

Current opponents Scott Keller and Steven Sandford.

Demographics 55th most Blacks (27.4%)

Assessment Probably safe.  

District: FL-12

Location Interior Florida, east of Tampa Bay map

Representative Adam Putnam (R) Quitting to run for statewide office

VoteView ranking NA

First elected  NA

2008 margin NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 49-50

Bush margin 2004 58-42

Current opponents Several Republicans are running, more are thinking about it (see the wiki; only one confirmed Demorat: Lori Edwards (website is clearly a work in progress, needs issues pages and so on).

Demographics 23rd most veterans (17%)

Assessment This is a fairly Republican seat; maybe the Repubs will damage each other in a primary?

District: FL-13

Location Gulf coast, from Bradenton to Englewood, interior to Arcadia map

Representative Vern Buchanan (R) Not confirmed

VoteView ranking 292

First elected  2006

2008 margin 56-38 over Christine Jennings

2006 margin 369 votes out of 237,000

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 47-52

Bush margin 2004 56-43

Current opponents : None confirmed

Demographics 9th most veterans (19.2%)

Assessment Buchanan is vulnerable, if a good candidate runs

District: FL-14

Location Gulf coast, including Naples and Ft. Myers map

Representative Connie Mack (R)

VoteView ranking 398

First elected 2004

2008 margin 59-25 over Robert Neeld

2006 margin 64-36

2004 margin 68-32

Obama margin 42-57

Bush margin 2004 62-38

Current opponents Robert Neeld is running again (site is just a placeholder)

Demographics 6th most veterans (19.8%)

Assessment Neeld has failed three times, long shot.

District: FL-15

Location Atlantic coast, from Cocoa to Vero Beach map

Representative Bill Posey (R) Not confirmed

VoteView ranking NA

First elected  2008

2008 margin 53*42 over Stephen Blythe

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 48-51

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Current opponents None confirmed.

Demographics 8th most veterans (19.4%)

Assessment This is a Republican district, but this is a Democratic year.  With an open seat….And no Republicans have declared yet… who knows?

District: FL-16

Location An oddly shaped district, it goes from the Gulf to the Atlantic; it’s narrow at the Gulf (just about Port Charlotte and nothing else), widens in the middle of the state, swings around Lake Okeechobee, then narrows, then widens again at the Atlantic running from Ft. Pierce to Jupiter, then jogging inland to Wellington map

Representative Tom Rooney (R)

VoteView ranking NA

First elected  2008

2008 margin  60-40 over Tim Mahoney

2006 margin 50-48

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 47-52

Bush margin 2004 54-46

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 11th most veterans (18.9%)

Assessment Vulnerable, but we need a good candidate

District: FL-17

Location Just off the Atlantic (by a mile or so) including North Miami Beach, North Miami, and Hollywood map

Representative Kendrick Meek (D) Retiring to run for Senate

VoteView ranking NA

First elected  NA

2008 margin NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 87-12

Bush margin 2004 17-83

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents About a dozen Democrats seem to be running or considering running (see the WIKI.

Demographics 20th most Blacks (55.2%) and very few veterans (7.2%). 29th poorest district (median income = $30K).  The most Democratic district in the South

Assessment Whichever Democrat wins the primary will win the general.  This is one of the most Democratic districts in the country, and Obama got more here than in all but 12 CDs.

District: FL-18

Location Miami and a narrow strip along the Atlantic north and south of there map

Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R)

VoteView ranking 258

First elected  1989

2008 margin 58-42 over Annette Tadeo

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin 65-35

Obama margin 51-49

Bush margin 2004 54-46

Current opponents None confirmed.

Demographics 16th most Latinos (62.7%)

Assessment Several southern FL seats have gone from solidly Republican to vulnerable in the last decade; partly this is the danger of gerrymandering, partly it’s because the Cuban population is changing.  I thought this one would be closer in 2008, but it’s still possible.

District: FL-19

Location Slightly off the Atlantic from near West Palm Beach to near Pompano Beach map

Representative Robert Wexler (D)

VoteView ranking 50

First elected  1996

2008 margin 66-27 over Ed Lynch

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin unoppposed

Obama margin 65-34

Bush margin 2004 34-66

Current opponents There’s a primary, then either Lynch or Josue Larose

Demographics 28th most veterans (16.6%)

Assessment  Safe

District: FL-20

Location Another weirdly shaped district.  What is it shaped like? Well, part of it is like a number 7, with the top running from the Atlantic west to Weston, and the bottom on the Atlantic. Then, atop the 7, it goes back east to the Atlantic again then north a little… ohh… go look at the map

Representative Debbie Wasserman Schulz (D) Not confirmed

VoteView ranking 83

First elected  2004 (D)

2008 margin unopposed

2006 margin unoppsed

2004 margin 70-30

Obama margin 63-36

Bush margin 2004 36-64

Current opponents Either Brian Reilly or Dennis Lamb

Demographics Not unusual on what I track, but one of the highest concentrations of Jews of any district.

Assessment Safe

District: FL-21

Location This one is shaped like a ?.  Folks, to appreciate southern FL districting, you really have to look at a map.  Gerry would be proud of these guys, but the Republicans may have overdone it, as they now have several vulnerable seats. map

Representative Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R)

VoteView ranking 281.5

First elected  1992

2008 margin 58-42 over Raul Martinez

2006 margin 59-41

2004 margin 73-27 (against a Libertarian)

Obama margin 49-51

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Current opponents None confirmed.

Demographics 8th most Latinos (69.7%)

Assessment Vulnerable with the right opponent, I thought this would be closer in 2008.

District: FL-22

Location One of the strangest shaped districts in the country. Go look. It’s south Florida along the Atlantic….more or less. map

Representative Ron Klein (D)

VoteView ranking 203.5

First elected  2006

2008 margin 55-45 over Alan West

2006 margin 51-47

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 52-48

Bush margin 2004 48-52

Current opponents There’s a primary and then Allen West is running again.

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  West does not appear to be a serious threat, but others might be.

District: FL-23

Location The eastern and southern coasts of Lake Okeechobee map

Representative Alcee Hastings (D) Not confirmed

VoteView ranking 57.5

First elected 1992

2008 margin 82-18 over Marion Thorpe

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin unopposed

Obama margin 83-17

Bush margin 2004 24-76

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents  Bernard Sansariq

Demographics 43rd fewest Whites (29.4%), 23rd most Blacks (51.2%), 41st poorest (median income = $31K)

Assessment Safe

District: FL-24

Location Atlantic coast, towards the north. map

Representative Suzanne Kosmas (D)

VoteView ranking NA

First elected  2008

2008 margin

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 49-51

Bush margin 2004 55-45

Current opponents At least 4 Republicans, see wiki

Demographics 21st most veterans (17.1%)

Assessment  As a freshman in a swing district, Kosmas is vulnerable, but, so far, there are no opponents.

District: FL-25

Location Southern end of Florida map

Representative Mario Diaz-Balart (R)

VoteView ranking 281.5

First elected  2002

2008 margin 53-47 over Joe Garcia

2006 margin 58-42

2004 margin unopposed

Obama margin 49-50

Bush margin 2004 56-44

Current opponents None confirmed.

Demographics 17th most Latinos (62.4%), 16th fewest veterans (6%)

Assessment Vulnerable to the right opponent.

First, let me say that I’m impressed by the many redistricting maps many of you have created recently. I’m happy that you have found my application useful. It’s been fun working on it and it makes it so worthwhile to see what you all are doing with it.

Today I uploaded an updated application with these new features, all of which are requests from those of you who have emailed me. They are…

— A button to assign all blocks according to the old CDs, so you can start your map with the current map and save time.

— Up to 500 CDs, so you can use the app for legislative districts, too. (Although there are no old LD polygons…yet.) The selection of #CDs is now a slider instead of a dropdown.

— Demographic info bar (at the bottom of the app’s screen) now has percentages, as well as the number of persons in each demographic group. Also, hover on the state population text block and get the demographics for the state.

Also, Pennsylvania is officially there now. (Actually the data has been there for a month; my apologies for not announcing sooner.)

Next up: adding NY and IL; and figuring out how to add partisan data. (DavidNYC has been assisting. Thanks!)

It appears that Democrats have landed a pretty solid candidate for the open seat that GOP Rep. Todd Tiahrt’s leaving behind in his pursuit of Sam Brownback’s Senate seat. From the Wichita Eagle:

State Rep. Raj Goyle, D-Wichita, announced today that he will run for the 4th Congressional District seat being vacated by Rep. Todd Tiahrt, R-Goddard.

In a written statement, Goyle said, “I am running because too many Kansas families and businesses are struggling right now. […]

The second-term state representative’s interest in the race had been known for months. Party leaders said they were delighted that he is now formally in.

“He is the most talented person I know to run for this job, bar none,” said John Carmichael, 4th District chairman for the Democratic Party. “Not only because he is a good campaigner, but because he is a bright legislator.”

Back in January, SSP diarist kansasjackass had more on Goyle’s profile:

State Rep. Raj Goyle shocked the Kansas political establishment when he beat incumbent Republican State Rep. Bonnie Huy in 2006, and has since made a name for himself as an able and ambitious member of the state legislature.  As a testament to the quality of a candidate he is, in his reliably Republican district his original election in 2006 wasn’t that close (56%-44%) and his re-election in 2008 was a blow-out: He won 67% of the vote.

While I can’t say much about the history of Goyle’s Wichita-based legislative district (HD87), it narrowly voted for McCain over Obama by a 51-48 margin in 2008 according to the skunkworks down at SSP Labs. However, the 4th CD itself is much more heavily R; McCain romped by a 58-40 margin here, while Bush posted an even-better 64-34 result in 2004. No Democrat has held this seat since Dan Glickman was turfed in 1994.

Goyle will have to prove himself to be an exceptionally talented fundraiser and campaigner in order to turn this into a real race, but his electoral track record is impressive enough to suggest that he could make this a district worth keeping an eye on.

RaceTracker: KS-04

Earlier this week fundraising data for the first half of the year was released (in off-years fundraising numbers are realesed biannually in GA state races like GOV, LT GOV, SOS, etc.) and there were some definite surprises on both the Democratic and Republican side with expectations exceeded by some (those who I consider winners) and underacheived by others (the losers) with one notable exception who has not formally declared his candidacy yet, Fmr. Governor Roy Barnes. I have to give credit to TheUnknown285 who has already provided data on this matter.

Winners

Democratic side:

Thurbert Baker raised close to $700,000 for a candidate who only started raising money in April this is pretty damn impressive and higher than many expected.

GOP side:

Nathan Deal raised over $1.2 million, really incredible given his detachment from statewide politics. Deal concerns me as a really difficult general election candidate because he is rather unknown outside of his district unlike other foot-in-mouth Republcan Congressmen in GA and he can raise a ton of $$$.

Eric Johnson raised close to $1 million, somewhat like Deal in this number came out of nowhere but given his leadership role in the State Senate and his unique geographical location like Deal he was able to rake in the big bucks.

Losers

Democratic side:

Dubose Porter  only raised $231,250 slightly more than Democratic Attorney General candidate Rob Teilhet which says a lot for Teilhet but is a rather discouraging statement about Porter's viability in the primary. I really like Porter's populist style but he'll need to ramp up the fundraising if he's serious about this gubernatorial race otherwise I think it'd be wise for him to look elsewhere to run for something. 

David Poythress  while sitting on a nice amount ($304,045.00) already Poythress lacked in the first half of 2008 raising a paltry $156,462.20 especially considering he spent $196,407.42 over the same amount of time. I know he's in it for the long haul but to be taken seriously he'll need to turn the fundraising around asap. 

GOP side:

Karen Handel while raising significantly more than Porter or Poythress, will need to do better than $431,178.57 in December to make it through a bruising GOP primary. I think she's in substantial risk of being passed over by the Deal and Johnson if the fundraising disparity continues.

Austin Scott $180,620.00 is not going to cut it. His “walking” tour would be interesting in different circumstances but in an open race with a ton of different options on the GOP and Democratic side I don't see him really catching on.

Neutral/ unknown

Democratic side:

Roy Barnes as stated above, Barnes has just launched his website and has not started fundraising in earnest reporting $0 raised so far. But given his penchant for fundraising in the past ($22 million in 2002!) I think Barnes will be bringing in a solid amount come December but with his frontrunner status come expectations that have to be met to secure the Democratic nomination without a fratricidal primary.

GOP side:

John Oxendine coming in with over $1 million so far makes this fundraising period not as critical for Oxendine as other candidates yet $416,580.35 this year so far is lagging in comparison to Deal and Johnson but going forward it will be interesting to see whether GOP donors will help him maintain his current frontrunner status.

We’d like to make a special request that the knowledgeable folks who inhabit SSP sign up at the brand-new Race Tracker Wiki and start adding data. (Gubernatorial races in particular need help.) It’s super-easy to do – just click here to create a new account. Follow the on-screen instructions and you’ll be ready in moments. When you find a page which needs candidate data, just click on the “Edit with form” tab that’s at the top of each page. Thanks!

According to Chris Cillizza, earlier today Rep. Mark Kirk suddenly dropped out of the Illinois Senate race as quick as he got in. Apparently he didn’t take kindly to having to run in a primary and the withholding of his Illinois Republican House colleagues’ support:

Kirk’s decision, a blow to Senate Republicans’ chances in Illinois, came in the wake of Burris’ formal retirement this afternoon.

It also followed a meeting of the Illinois Republican congressional delegation on Thursday in which his colleagues refused to back Kirk in a primary against Illinois Republican Party Chairman Andy McKenna due, in large part, to his vote in favor of President Barack Obama’s climate change bill.

However, Cillizza posted a quick update, which indicates that the GOP may be forced to capitulate to Kirk’s little tantrum:

[T]here is an ongoing effort now to convince him to re-think that decision, according to several sources close to the discussions. Pressure is now being brought to bear on Andy McKenna, who, according to knowledgeable sources, had told Republicans insiders that he would not run if Kirk got into the race.

We’ll have to keep you posted.

UPDATE: Politico says McKenna will make his final decision this weekend about whether to stay in the race or not, and:

Rep. Judy Biggert (R-Ill.) spoke with Kirk this afternoon and he told her he was still planning on running, according to Kathleen Lydon, Biggert’s chief of staff.  Kirk had already scheduled July 20 as the date for his Senate kickoff announcement.

LATER UPDATE (James Hell): Kirk lays it all down pretty definitively to the Hotline here:

After much ‘Will he? Or won’t he?’ speculation this afternoon about GOP Rep. Mark Kirk’s desire to run for Senate in IL, Kirk said in an email to The Hotline that he was “still talking to Andy. We are trying to avoid a primary.”

The “Andy” he references is IL GOP Chair Andy McKenna, who has made serious signals in recent days of his intention to run. When asked if this means that he may ultimately forgo a run, Kirk replied: “I will run if Andy does not.”

RaceTracker: IL-Sen

• WI-Gov: Hot on the heels of changing Ohio to Lean Dem yesterday, today we’re downgrading the Wisconsin gubernatorial race to Lean Dem as well. We aren’t reacting to any one recent event (the only two polls so far have dramatically disparate results, but they average out to a tight race), but realized that we had no business keeping WI-Gov at Likely Dem if OH-Gov is going to be Lean Dem.

• CA-Sen: Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina seems to be moving toward running against Barbara Boxer after all, not taking formal steps but rubbing elbows with the right people. Here’s some ill-timed bad PR for her, though: Fiorina has been telling people that she’s now CEO of her own company (Carly Fiorina Enterprises) and her own foundation (Fiorina Foundation), but neither one has been registered with the proper state or federal authorities… which might lead some to question her vaunted business organization skills.

• IL-Sen: The Fix reports that alleged field-clearing heavyweight Rep. Mark Kirk may still face a contested GOP primary in the Senate race; state party chair Andy McKenna, recruited as the GOP’s Plan B, seems to be staying in for now, and the state’s Republican congressional delegation is staying, at least publicly, neutral. The flashpoint may be Kirk’s recent vote in favor of cap-and-trade.

• MO-Sen: In the “did he really just say that file?” Roy Blunt offers up a doozy: in a conservative talk radio interview, he said that maybe it would have been better if the federal government had never created Medicare, Medicaid, or VA health care, because it “distorts the marketplace.” Way to put the senior citizen vote in play there, Roy!

• NV-Sen: Off-the-record GOP consultants say that a John Ensign resignation may be “on the table” and that there are worries that there may still be even more undisclosed payments to the Hamptons floating around. If there are public calls for resignation from the other key GOPers in Nevada — Gov. Jim Gibbons, Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki, Rep. Dean Heller — it’s time to prepare the fork for sticking (of course, with two of those three in deep scandal of their own, there’s a certain pot/kettle thing going on).

• PA-Sen: Arlen Specter made his first aggressive moves against possible primary challenger Rep. Joe Sestak today, calling him a “flagrant hypocrite” for not being a Democrat until 2006. (Sestak was an Independent during his decades of military service, and switched to Dem once he was out of the service.) Hmmm… remind me again which year Arlen Specter became a Democrat? Meanwhile, on the GOP side, the NRSC just can’t help themselves from hiking the Appalachian Trail despite their efforts to fall back in love with Pat Toomey. They’ve been talking behind the scenes with state Sen. Jane Orie about running in the primary (although she’s almost as conservative as Toomey, so it’s not clear what benefit that would provide).

• AK-Gov: Guess who’s saying “thanks but no thanks” to the assistance offered by the divine Sarah Palin: the GOP candidates in the two very-close blue-state gubernatorial races this year, Chris Christie and Bob McDonnell. (On the other hand, Rick Perry, who needs to rally every wingnut he can get his hands on in order to win his primary in Texas, welcomes her.) The Hill also sniffs out a number of other candidates facing possibly tough races who’d like her to stay far, far away, including Reps. Lee Terry, Frank Wolf, Mike Castle, and Pete Hoekstra. (In his efforts to become World’s Most Tone-Deaf Man, Roy Blunt welcomes her help, though.) Finally, check out Peggy Noonan‘s authoritative takedown of Palin today; say what you will about the whole pure evil thing, the woman has a way with words.

• PA-Gov: With a lot of people looking at the Democratic field in the Governor’s race and asking “is that all there is?” a familiar face is considering the race: Montgomery Co. Commissioner (and former Rep. and 2004 Senate candidate) Joe Hoeffel. In his favor, he’d be the only elected official from the Philly area in the race (Tom Knox is from Philly, but has never held office).

• IL-10: With Rep. Mark Kirk kindly leaving an open seat for us, both the Daily Herald and Roll Call take a look at the developing fields in this race. On the Dem side, the leading contenders are state Sens. Michael Bond (already in the race) and Susan Garrett. Dan Seals, who lost in 2006 and 2008 to Kirk, is also considering a third try. The only GOPer in the race is Patricia Bird, but businessman Dick Green and state Rep. Elizabeth Coulson are likely contestants.

• NY-23: Don’t count out state Sen. Darrel Aubertine on becoming the Democratic candidate in NY-23, despite the ongoing craziness in the New York state Senate. Although the July 17 filing deadline is coming up and he hasn’t made any noise about it, Aubertine is still considering it and will have the requisite family sit-down about it once he has the time (which maybe he’ll have, now that the Senate is back to “normal”).

• VA-05: Rep. Tom Perriello has become the focus in the tug-of-war over cap-and-trade. A week after the NRCC made him the sole target of a TV attack ad for voting in favor, the League of Conservation Voters is running thank-you ads in his central Virginia district.

• Mayors: Louisiana Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu has options, but he ruled out a third run at New Orleans mayor, for which he’d been considered front-runner. A run for Governor in 2011 (or maybe not until the open seat in 2015) now seems likelier. This leaves city councilor Arnie Fielkow in the driver’s seat for the next mayoral election.

• Caucuses: This seems like an odd time for this to happen, in the middle of the fight over health care reform: the Congressional Progessive Caucus canned its executive director, Bill Goold, without much explanation.