Month: December 2009

Rasmussen (12/15, likely voters, 9/21 in parentheses):

Robin Carnahan (D): 46 (46)

Roy Blunt (R): 44 (46)

Some other: 4 (2)

Not sure: 6 (5)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

If there’s one thing everyone can agree on about the Missouri Senate race, it’s been polling remarkably consistently; with the exception of a GQR poll from April, it’s always been either a tie or a couple-point lead for Democratic SoS Robin Carnahan. That’s partly because races are always close in deeply-polarized Missouri, and also because Carnahan and Republican Rep. Roy Blunt are pretty well-defined in voters’ minds already. Look for these two to stay closely locked all the way through to next November — although if you ask me, if there’s one place where we might actually gain a Senate seat somewhere next year, it’s here.

The two even have remarkably similar favorables: Carnahan’s at 51/43, while Blunt is at 50/43. Barack Obama’s approval is at 47/53 (with the requisite 1% unsure for a total of 101%), indicating that Carnahan’s personal popularity associated with the family name helps her overperform the Democratic brand a bit.

RaceTracker: MO-Sen

With the withdrawal of barely-candidate pharmabiz guy, Kansas Democrats are in need of a gubernatorial candidate.

At this point, Some Dude would be a step up. But I think Kansas Democrats can do better.

We can get someone credible. Yes we can.

Gov. Mark Parkinson– Why won’t he run and save us from Brownback? He is the A List. He just issued this statement, which is actually his softest yet on the re-election question, which he’d heretofore always strenuously denied:

Asked whether he would reconsider running for the office, Parkinson said in a statement: “The 2010 elections are still very far away. In the meantime, I am focused on responsibly balancing the budget and getting Kansans back to work.”

So who knows?

State Sen. Anthony Hensley– Competent state senator, senate minority leader, definitely has solid enough experience and likely the best of the rest on paper, at least. He already acts as a strong opposition leader, putting out a statement against Brownback’s preemptive attacks on Wiggans, so he won’t roll over. Could raise decent money. From Topeka, which is among the swingiest and better-populated places in Kansas.

Con: Might be better in the State Senate? Or prefer it? Has lots of votes Brownback can attack.

Joshua Svaty – State Agriculture Secretary – Pro:experienced former State Representative from red Ellsworth recently appointed to his current position. Young, attractive fifth-generation farmer with solid NRA ratings. And his Dad got his seat when he left it and now his Dad is all into it! How cute is that! NRA-approved, rural-friendly moderate male will also have big potential crossover appeal.

Con: Just got appointed, might be prohibited from campaigning in office. Might be better to let him gain experience and not encourage him to sacrifice his career on in a race where he’d be the David to Goliath.

Good bio: http://www.kansasfreepress.com…

Alan Jilka – former Salina Mayor– Pro: Former Salina Mayor, was going to be the “sacrificial lamb candidate/maybe they’ll nominate an actual Nazi and I can win candidate” for the open seat in KS-01. He could switch over without any great loss.

Con: No one knows who he is, if he can run the state, or if he can raise money to match Brownback’s millions. Salina only has 42,000-ish people.

Dan Hesse – CEO of Sprint – Pro: Wealthy businessman, but not a total a-hole by most accounts. According to a survey by Glassdoor, he’s by far the most popular telecom CEO according to his employees, which helps since there are literally thousands in this district. l don’t know if he’s even a Democrat…but if he’s unaffiliated, and switched to the Democrats to run for Governor, I totally think he could win a primary. KS Dems are a pretty pragmatic bunch.

Con: I don’t know if he lives in KS, but Sprint’s headquartered there. Don’t know if he’s a Democrat or would even consider running.

Official Sprint bio: http://www2.sprint.com/mr/ex_d…

Rolf Potts – Travel Writer – I told ya, crazy. Pro: From Salina, lots of family there, maintains family farm there. Founded Vagablogging and is a successful small businessman. Kinda almost famous.

Con: Probably would rather be a travel writer and too footloose and worldly. Never held office.

Bio: http://www.rolfpotts.com/bio

Burdett Loomis – Univ. of KS Professor of Political Science – Pro: Would be seen as knowledgeable about politics while also being very non-partisan. Has some experience as “Director of Administrative Communications, Governor Kathleen Sebelius, 2005.” The KU connection would drive up his vote share in Douglas & Johnson Counties.

Con: An academic, no business experience, no elected experience. Kansas State connection would drive down his numbers in Manhattan.

KU Bio: http://www2.ku.edu/~kups/peopl…

Chris Steineger – State Senator – Okay, yes, he’s an elected official and not supposed to go in this section. But what’s his deal? He seemed to look at a run then decide against it. Nice website but hasn’t been updated recently.

Pro: Experienced elected official and would not have to give up his seat to run. Wonky. Seems fairly competent.

Con: Would be seen a liberal. And urban. All that and his reduce-the-state-to-13-counties plan would be stir up rural fear. Also majorly on the outs with the state party and recently told KC Star: “The party insiders just can’t get their stuff together,” Steineger said. “I lay it on them. They’re dysfunctional. I think it’s directly their fault that we’re in this situation.” Not helpful.

Interesting profile: http://cjonline.com/opinion/20…

I’m sure we can throw out some more names, no? There’s 50-ish Democrats who are State Reps, what about any of them?  

What about Jill Docking? Rematches are always fun, right? I probably forgot someone obvious, too so help me out….  

And now it’s time to throw out some unexpected names. Kansas SSPers, please brainstorm with me. Let’s get crazy.

Now that we’ve finally been able to name a winner in our 2009 predictions contest, we’re ready to open up some new frontiers. Check it out:

The Short Version: Redistrict New York state so that your map would likely elect at least 26 Democrats and no more than two Republicans. Post your plan as a diary. Win babka.

The Long Version: Dave (of Dave’s Redistricting App) and Jeffmd have been hard at work implementing partisan political data for New York, and the results have recently gone live. So you have from now until Sunday night, January 10th, at midnight Eastern in which to post a diary containing your maps & descriptions. Jeff, who has graciously agreed to judge this contest, will then decide which plan he deems “best.” There are a few criteria which I’ll detail below, and those have to be met in order for your plan to be eligible. But as far as what constitutes the “best” plan, well… this is going to be something like an art contest, and the judge’s sense of aesthetics will rule the day. After all, redistricting is as much art as it is science!

Here are the criteria to follow:

0) Not that we would expect anyone to do otherwise, but you have to use Dave’s Redistricting App.

1) You must have 28 districts of equal population size, within ~±1% of the ideal district size of 700,334 (i.e., any district between 693,331 and 707,337 will work).

2) You must draw seats for at least 26 Democrats – 26-2, 27-1, and 28-0 plans are all acceptable.

3) Assume that all current incumbents are re-elected in 2010. You will therefore have to eliminate at least one incumbent’s district.

4) Your over-arching goal should be to shore up all Democratic seats which are potentially vulnerable. If you choose to eliminate an incumbent Democrat’s district, the trade-off should mean bluer districts for remaining incumbents.

5) Not a requirement, but bonus points for screwing Peter King in some fashion

6) Water contiguity is permitted (bonus points for connecting along bridges).

7) Touch-point contiguity is not permitted. (Touch-point contiguity occurs when two geographical units only meet each other at a single point. Think of the famous “Four Corners” in the American southwest: Arizona and Colorado share touch-point contiguity, as do New Mexico and Utah.)

8) VRA compliance is required. VRA-compliant districts should be centered around the geographic areas covered by the the present-day districts listed below. These districts may be re-numbered and re-shaped however you see fit, so long as your final plan includes districts which meet the criteria below. They may also be combined & re-fashioned, especially in the case of NY-10 and NY-11.

We won’t require strict adherence to any particular set of numbers, but these are probably pretty decent guidelines:

     • NY-06 area (Jamaica, St. Albans, Springfield Gardens, Far Rockaway): 50%+ African-American

     • NY-10 area (Bed-Stuy, Canarsie, East New York, Downtown Brooklyn): 50%+ African-American

     • NY-11 area (Crown Heights, Brownsville, Park Slope, Flatbush): 50%+ African-American

     • NY-12 area (Greenpoint, Bushwick, Glendale, Lower East Side): 48%+ Hispanic

     • NY-15 area (Harlem, Spanish Harlem, Upper West Side, Washington Heights): Majority-minority

     • NY-16 area (South Bronx, Morrisania, High Bridge, Port Morris): 60%+ Hispanic

9) All 28 districts must be described in your writeup. Each district writeup must include:

     • A list of any current incumbents whose homes are in that district. If more than one incumbent lives in a district, you must describe whom you think the district “belongs” to.

     • A brief narrative summary of major counties, cities, towns, and/or neighborhoods encompassed by the district. This list need not – and should not – be exhaustive. It should just hit the high points.

     • Demographic information about racial breakdowns by percentage.

     • 2008 presidential election results, both for the new district and the old district (to the extent there is a corresponding old district).

     • Total population.

10) Your writeup must include maps sufficient to show all 28 districts with reasonable detail. Use zoomed-in maps for densely populated areas. Please make maps no more than 590 pixels wide – any larger and they break the site’s formatting on many monitors. But by all means link to full-size images.

11) Your map can be as gerrymandered or as compact as you wish. Bonus points for creativity.

12) Only one entry per user – but you can post your diary at any time during the contest period (again, until midnight Eastern time on Sunday, Jan. 10th).

13) Please email your saved .DRF.XML to Jeff (jeffmd [at] swingstateproject [dot] com). Dave has instructions for locating your file in his help file (scroll down to the section “Saved Files”), for Mac OS, Windows XP, and Windows Vista. Do not post this file online.

If you have any questions or need any clarifications, please feel free to ask in comments. To the winner goes the babka!

P.S. To assist you, a list of each represenative’s area of residence is below the fold. If you have more detailed information about any of them, please let us know in comments.

UPDATE: Please put the phrase “Contest Entry:” at the start of your diary title, and please also put the tag “redistricting contest” in your tags.

Also, here’s a helpful map of NYC neighborhoods (warning: large PDF).

UPDATE 2: There are special instructions for turning on the political (Obama vs. McCain) data:

To access this new data, you need to check the “Use Test Data” checkbox in the upper right corner of the app before selecting New York State. (Because the data format is different than I have been using, I’ve separated it into a separate directory on the server.)

• AR-Sen: State Sen. Kim Hendren got some early attention as the first entrant in the GOP field to take on Blanche Lincoln, but a few feet-in-mouth later, he doesn’t seem to be taken seriously much anymore. He seems to be trying to fix that by loaning himself $200K for his campaign.

• AZ-Sen: A new poll from Republican pollster the Tarrance Group (paid for by Foundation for a Secure and Prosperous America, presumably on John McCain’s behalf, as it also did anti-J.D. Hayworth message testing) shows McCain faring much better in a potential Republican primary against ex-Rep. Hayworth than a Rasmussen poll did last month; they have McCain beating Hayworth 56-36, and with a 78/20 favorable. Also, Grant Woods, a former Arizona Attorney General (and more significantly, a former McCain chief of staff) filed an FEC complaint against Hayworth, accusing him of using his talk radio bullhorn to promote his potential candidacy.

• CO-Sen: Former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton is facing something of a teabagger deficit, having been ordained as the GOP establishment’s candidate. But she’s trying to make up for that with some red meat that pleasantly surprised members of the hard right she was appearing in front of: she advocated eliminating the Dept. of Education. (Actually, maybe that should be described as green meat, considering how long that moldy idea has been sitting on the shelf. Ask President Bob Dole how that one went over.)

• CT-Sen: Ralph Nader reiterated his interest to the Princeton University newspaper (his alma mater) in running as a Green in the Connecticut race, saying he’s encouraged by the nation’s anti-incumbent mood. The netroots’ other least favorite person, Joe Lieberman, is heading the opposite direction: aware that any hope of winning a Democratic nomination in 2012 vaporized this week, he’s now making noises about seeking the Republican nomination instead. One other 2010 note: Barack Obama plans to appear on NBC’s “WWE Tribute to the Troops” special to deliver a tombstone piledriver to Linda McMahon. Ooops, actually, it looks like he’s just delivering a holiday message to the troops.

• IL-Sen: It looks like all that pandering to the right wing is finally paying off for Rep. Mark Kirk; he got $5,000 from the Koch Industries PAC (Koch is one of the biggest funders of the right, including of operations like Freedom Works and the Cato Institute). It also got him a brief bit of praise from Sarah Palin via Twitter, after months of tugging at her sleeve for help. Erick Erickson still isn’t buying what Kirk is selling, though, saying in his usual understated manner that Kirk “will knife [conservatives] in the chest with a smile once he gets to D.C.”

• NV-Sen: This ought to just further rev up right-wingers who view former state GOP chair and former Miss New Jersey Sue Lowden as a RINO in the making. Turns out she claimed to be pro-choice when representing a Dem-leaning state Senate seat in the 1990s, while today she’s claiming Roe v. Wade is a “bad decision.” One more flip-flop that’ll have to be dealt with, just like her previous support of Harry Reid.

• NY-Sen-B: Suffolk County Legislator Jon Cooper had been making noises about a primary challenge to Kirsten Gillibrand for many months, but apparently a face-to-face meeting with her was more than satisfactory to him, and he came out of it with an effusive endorsement of Gillibrand instead. And while we discussed the possibility of a William Thompson primary yesterday on the front page, there were also some other numbers from yesterday’s Siena and Quinnipiac polls. Quinnipiac tested out Rudy Giuliani numbers, and found that on the off chance he runs, he’d beat both Gillibrand (50-40) and Thompson (52-36). Siena went with a whole bunch of permutations, finding Gillibrand losing to Giuliani 49-42, but beating ex-Gov. George Pataki (46-43) and Port Commissioner Bruce Blakeman (52-22). Thompson loses to both Giuliani (56-34) and Pataki (49-36) but beats Blakeman (40-23). They even tried out an improbable-looking GOP primary, finding Giuliani at 57 and Pataki at 26, followed by ex-state Sen. Michael Balboni at 7, Liz Feld at 6, and Blakeman at 4.

• SD-Sen: John Thune can consider himself safe for next year. He beats a Generic Dem 56-33 (fitting, since no one is running against him yet), and has approvals of 57/35. The only cloud on his horizon is that his constituents don’t want him to run for President, by a 28/55 margin.

• FL-Gov: Rasmussen threw in a Florida gubernatorial race general election question to their Senate race sample (which leads to the question: are there going to be Meek/Crist and Meek/Rubio numbers forthcoming?). They find that Republican AG Bill McCollum has a small lead over Democratic CFO Alex Sink, 44-39, but that Sink has more room to grow (24% have no opinion of Sink vs. 16% for McCollum).

• KS-Gov: That didn’t last long: the Kansas Dems thought they finally had a decent gubernatorial candidate in retired businessman Tom Wiggans, but he just ended his infant campaign. He cited trouble fundraising, although recent bad press about a settlement by his pharmaceutical company probably helped prompt his move too.

• NY-Gov: That same Quinnipiac sample also took a look at the New York Governor’s race, finding a la Siena, that the resurrection of David Paterson (from DOA to slightly less DOA) continues apace. They find Paterson beating Republican ex-Rep. Rick Lazio, 41-37, and with an approval of 40/49 and favorable of 38/44. Paterson shouldn’t break out the champagne, though, as he still loses a primary to Andrew Cuomo, 60-23, and Cuomo goes on to beat Lazio 62-22.

• CT-05: The former occupant of the 5th, ex-Rep. Nancy Johnson, endorsed state Sen. Sam Caligiuri to try and take the seat back for the GOP. The awkward part is, Caligiuri’s primary opponent Justin Bernier is still touting Johnson’s endorsement of him too. Johnson said that she did in fact back Bernier — up until the moment Caligiuri (her 2002 campaign co-chair) got into the race.

• FL-08: I’m a little confused here, because it seemed like the GOP was desperately casting about for any sort of elected official to go up against Rep. Alan Grayson for a long time, and finally settled on businessman Bruce O’Donoghue… but now that all that sturm and drang is over, state Rep. Kurt Kelly says he’s likely to get into the race against Grayson. Kelly’s name rarely appeared on the list of potential candidates, leaving me to wonder why the NRCC didn’t express any interest in him and whether they’ll continue to back O’Donoghue here.

• HI-01: Hawaii may try something new in the wake of the realization that it doesn’t have the money to hold a special election to replace resigning Rep. Neil Abercrombie. Elections officer Kevin Cronin says that he can’t fight that feeling anymore that Hawaii may have to follow the lead of the northwestern states and conduct an all mail-in ballot. Meanwhile, ex-Rep. Ed Case isn’t wasting any time; he’s already hitting the airwaves with his first TV spot.

• KS-03: Despite party efforts to coalesce behind state Sen. Nick Jordan, we’ve definitely got a contested GOP primary in the open seat in the 3rd. State Rep. Kevin Yoder confirmed he’s getting into the race.

• MD-01: What is this, the 80s? The NRCC is actually pulling out the “soft on crime” card as they road-test different lines of attack on freshman Rep. Frank Kratovil. Kratovil made his name as the Queen Anne’s County state’s attorney (and escaped previous “soft on crime” attacks last year in his first matchup against state Sen. Andy Harris), so they’re trying to hit him on his strengths.

• NJ-07: One swing district with a freshman GOPer where the Dems have had no luck filling out their dance card is the wealthy suburban 7th. Without an elected officials interested in the race, Dems are looking at cumbersome-named Dem fundraiser Zenon Christodolou to go up against Rep. Leonard Lance.

• NY-23: A month after the fact, we finally have our official count from the special election in the 23rd (hence our finally calling our predictions contest!). Bill Owens got 73,137 votes (48.3%) to 69,553 (46.0%) for Doug Hoffman and 8,582 (5.7%) for Dede Scozzafava; the final count brought Hoffman a little closer.

• NC-08: With a lot of liberals feeling burned by freshman Rep. Larry Kissell’s voting record since getting into the House, there’s actually talk of a primary challenge happening. Chris Kouri, who ran for the seat in 2002 and surprised a better-known Dem in the primary before losing the general to Robin Hayes, is being courted by some in the district for another run. Kouri is the general counsel for the Lowe’s Motor Speedway.

• PA-06: State Rep. Curt Schroder got an endorsement from a once-prominent conservative, ex-Rep. Bob Walker, a key Newt Gingrich henchman back in the day as well as an Elmer Fudd lookalike. Walker used to represent part of Chester County, much of which was contained in the 16th under the 1990s map. That didn’t deter one more no-name Republican from getting in the already-crammed field: geologist Walt Hufford, who sits on the board of the Pennsylvania Environmental Council and plans to run as a moderate.

• TN-01: Get ready for Roe v. Davis, part III. Ex-Rep. David Davis, narrowly beaten by Rep. Phil Roe in a GOP primary in this dark-red district in 2008, says to Politico that he’s “strongly leaning” toward another matchup.

• TN-06: State Sen. Jim Tracy has a slight problem that could hurt him in his GOP primary in the open seat race to succeed Bart Gordon: in the 1990-2002 time period, he voted in six Democratic primaries (Tennessee voters can crossover in primaries) and only two GOP primaries. Of course, Tracy offers the defense that, in that part of the state, there was nothing to vote for but Democrats back then, but that’s more grist for the teabagger mill as other candidates (like Lou Ann Zelenik) seek to woo the hard right.

• Retirements: A little more followup on the retirements front, in the wake of our front-page post yesterday: Rick Boucher and Allen Boyd have now confirmed with party leaders that they, too, will be back for re-election next year. (No surprise on Boyd, as he’s already hitting the airwaves in his primary fight.) Lincoln Davis also reaffirmed his commitment, saying he’s “running come hell or high water,” and also saying he’s not worried about the specter of GOP-controlled redistricting in 2012, saying he can’t be put “in any more conservative district.” (SSP’s crack team of redistricters may disagree with him on that one!)

• House: Nancy Pelosi seems to be getting fed up with the Senate in many ways, and one smart way she’s fighting back is saying that the House won’t be going first on the tough votes anymore, and that she’ll act on potentially divisive issues like EFCA and immigration reform only after the Senate has hashed it out. She has to be concerned with shielding her most vulnerable members from voting on tough votes like HCR and cap and trade only to see the legislation head into purgatory in the Senate.

There has been a lot of negativity surrounding the two Tennessee retirements involving Bart Gordon and John Tanner.  TN-6, which is Gordon’s district appears to be the real trouble spot  If you look at the numbers it gives you reason for concern given the R+13 slant of the district.  I think we all know that this district will be particularly hard to hold, but that not mean we should not draft the best possible candidate.

NOTE:  I apologize if my R+13 number is incorrect.

I preceded to do a little research on some of the candidates who are out there on our side of the aisle.  I headed on over to Politics1 and found a description for Terry Ashe, it read Wilson County Sheriff, Farmer, Businessman, Vietnam War Veteran.  I figure this guy sounds like a good fit given they can’t use the same lines that I always hear against Democrats.  The ones about never creating a job, ambulance chaser or liberal professor.

So if you actually Google Terry Ashe, you will find that he has an outstanding military record.  Sheriff Terry Ashe has been awarded 3 purple hearts, two Bronze stars and had a Congressional Resolution passed in his honor in 1989.  This goes without mentioning his numerous Sheriff of the Year Awards and the non-profit organizations he belongs to.  You can find his entire resume here:

http://www.wilsoncotnsheriff.c…

I then went ahead and took a look at the possible federal contributions that Ashe had made in the past.  I know many of you are afraid of a Dan Boren or Zell Miller type in this type of district.  Terry Ashe does not appear to fit that mold.  Terry Ashe gave money to Jim Sasser in 1993, Al Gore in 2000 and Harold Ford Jr. in 2006.  

You can find that information here:

http://www.newsmeat.com/fec/by…

I tend to believe that this means we or someone out in the Netroots community should get a hold of Terry, get him some funds and let the guy run.  I would certainly love to find out how Republicans would go about attacking a guy with such an impeccable resume in a district that has sent a Dem to Washington before.

PPP (pdf) (12/11-13, likely voters, 11/9-11 in parentheses):

Elaine Marshall (D): 37 (34)

Richard Burr (R-inc): 42 (45)

Undecided: 21 (21)

Kenneth Lewis (D): 37 (32)

Richard Burr (R-inc): 43 (45)

Undecided: 21 (23)

Cal Cunningham (D): 36 (31)

Richard Burr (R-inc): 45 (44)

Undecided: 20 (25)

Generic Democrat (D): 41 (40)

Richard Burr (R-inc): 42 (44)

Undecided: 17 (16)

(MoE: ±4.0%)

Civitas (12/1-3, likely voters, 10/20-21 in parentheses):

Elaine Marshall (D): 32 (33)

Richard Burr (R-inc): 40 (43)

Undecided: 21 (24)

Generic Democrat (D): 40 (NA)

Generic Republican (R): 39 (NA)

Undecided: 21 (NA)

(MoE: ±4.0%)

The new numbers in the North Carolina Senate race, I’m surprised to say, don’t look half bad. While Richard Burr was looking like his lot had been improving in recent months, today’s PPP poll shows Burr leading his best-known Democratic opponent, SoS Elaine Marshall, by only 5 points, and the elusive “Generic Democrat” by only 1. In fact, I’d be inclined to think that PPP got a lucky bounce with a favorable sample here, if we didn’t have separate confirmation from Civitas with similar numbers. They find Marshall a little further back, but with a similar positive trend, and they find a 1-point gap in favor of Generic D over Generic R in their first attempt at a generic ballot.

So is there an easing in the anti-Democratic sentiment here, perhaps as we start to show tangible signs of economic rebound? I wouldn’t generalize that, based on how little the same sample likes Kay Hagan (36/44 approvals) or Bev Perdue (a dire 27/53). Instead, I think we’re seeing an electorate so surly they hate all incumbents, regardless of their stripes: Burr’s not much better, at 35/37 (at least he can take some comfort in that he’s gotten 70% of the electorate to know who he is). Elaine Marshall’s the only person they’ve tested who’s in the net positives, at 19/12 — and that low name rec points to room to grow.

RaceTracker Wiki: NC-Sen

We’ve been patiently waiting for the New York State Board of Elections to certify the results of the NY-23 special election so that we could name the winners of our 2009 predictions contest. Well, the numbers are finally in, so here we are! But first, thanks as always to everyone who participated. We received 110 valid entries, which is about as many as we had in 2008. Not bad for an off-year election!

If you are listed as a winner, send me an email and I will send you a super-delicious Green’s babka posthaste. Without further ado:

Congratulations to all the winners! If you’d like to find out how you did, please click here. The average score was 29. KainIIIC, Tiger in Blue Denver, and overall winner Zeitgeist9000 nailed NY-23 exactly (average error: 7). No one got NJ-Gov on the nose, though GoodWellOK and third-place finisher pinhickwv were off by just one point (average error: 9). Six folks got VA-Gov (second-place finisher andyroo312, brownsox, gabjoh, GOPVOTER, PropJoe & Zeitgeist9000, once again), while seven got ME-Init (bennytoothpick, David Kowalski, DGM

GoodWellOK, Lois, Mark & stevenaxelrod). (Average errors were 5 and 7, respectively.) Also, only one person correctly picked the victors of all four races. NJCentrist rightly named Owens, Christie, McDonnell and “Yes” as the winners of the four big 2009 races. Nice going!

In any event, props once again to our winners, and thanks once more to all who participated. If you didn’t win this time, have no fear – one thing I can predict is that there will be more babka in the very near future!

Speculation about outgoing NYC Comptroller Bill Thompson’s future has been all over the place. Rumors include a run for state comptroller, a run for Charlie Rangel’s House seat, a second run for mayor in 2013, or a primary challenge to appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand. That last possibility is the subject of two new polls, which offer widely differeing results.

Quinnipiac (12/7-13, registered voters, no trendlines):

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 28

Bill Thompson (D): 41

Other: 1

Undecided: 28

(MoE: ±3.7%)

As you might expect, Thompson cleans up among black voters, 65-11. Interestingly, he also leads among women, 39-28. Gillibrand gets good favorables among Democrats (34-7), but Thompson, probably by virtue of his recent mayoral campaign, is even better known among members of his own party (45-6). In the state as a whole, both Dems have pretty low name rec, with Gillibrand at just 26-15 faves and Thompson at 25-10. (This almost certainly explains why both are shown losing to non-candidate Rudy Giuliani – Gillibrand is down 50-40, and Thompson is down 52-36.)

Siena (PDF) (12/6-9, registered voters, no trendlines):

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 32

Bill Thompson (D): 23

Harold Ford (D): 7

Jonathan Tasini (D): 3

Undecided: 35

(MoE: ±5.5%)

Somewhat hilariously, Siena tested Harold Ford (yeah, that Harold Ford) – hopefully this is the last we’ll hear of that nonsense. In any event, while the Dem head-to-head margins diverge considerably, both pollsters show Gillibrand with similar levels of support. Also, some of the favorables (PDF) don’t look too different. Gillibrand is 31-22 overall and 35-18 among Dems, while Thompson is at 25-17 and 32-16 (that last number differs the most). Gillibrand nets similar numbers against Rudy (49-42), but edges Pataki (46-43), while Thompson loses 56-34 and 49-36, respectively.

So it’s hard to say what exactly is going on here. Polling folks with such low name recognition can be tricky. What’s more, neither Siena nor Quinnipiac divulges their sample composition (come on, guys), so we can’t judge who best has their finger on the pulse of the state. I’ll also note that Siena had a smaller sample than Q – exactly how small, I’m not sure, because they didn’t reveal their Dem-only sample size. But Quinnipiac tested more Dems (719) than Siena’s entire sample (665). (UPDATE: Siena’s Dem sample size was 315.) Anyhow, this may all be moot if Thompson doesn’t take the plunge, but food for thought nonetheless.

And we’re here to serve it up – or hide it in the dryer. Rasmussen (12/15, likely voters, 10/19 in parens):

Charlie Crist (R): 43 (49)

Marco Rubio (R): 43 (35)

Some other: (5) (4)

Not sure: 9 (12)

(MoE: ±5%)

It’s a tie game. Maybe this explains why Charlie Crist didn’t celebrate his first anniversary with his wife – the campaign is clearly demanding too much from him.

Not so fast, said the DCCC to the doomsayers:

At least 2 members who have been targets of an orchestrated GOP effort to goad them into retiring have told DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen they will run again over the past day. Spokespeople for Reps. Ike Skelton (D-MO) and Tim Holden (D-PA) say the incumbents will seek another term. …

Meanwhile, other potentially vulnerable incumbents have also assured the DCCC they are staying put. Reps. Ben Chandler (D-KY), Jim Matheson (D-UT) and Chet Edwards (D-TX) all told Dem leaders they would seek additional terms. A spokesperson for Rep. Lincoln Davis (D-TN) later said he will run for re-election as well.

Reid Wilson, who has done yeoman work tracking down retirement rumors, also reports that his sources say they expect Rick Boucher (VA-09) to run again. The GOP’s gung-ho attempts to goad various red-seat Dems into retirement may be having the opposite effect, if it’s pushing Dems to circle the wagons (and getting some competitive juices flowing again). In any event, this is some good pushback by Chris Van Hollen and the D-Trip.

Of course, there are still plenty of other names to be concerned about – our open seat watch still has several Democratic names on it, and several more have been the subject of recent rumors. I’m hoping, though, that some wobbly members of our caucus will take some cues from an old warhorse like Skelton and say to themselves, “If he can do it once more, then so can I.”

UPDATE: Maybe my theory is right:

Rep. Collin Peterson (D-Minn.) even publicly announced he’s definitely running again, and bashed Republicans for spreading rumors that he was thinking of stepping down.

“I don’t know why anyone would give credibility to these Republican rumors. I’m running for re-election and anyone who knows me knows that what I’m doing now is what I’ve always done,” Peterson said in a statement. “My paperwork is on file and in February I’ll make an official announcement.”

UPDATE No. 2: I’ve changed the title, in light of the extra information in the Politico piece, which notes that Earl Pomeroy has also told the DCCC he’s running again. (So has Paul Kanjorski, but Obama won his district handily.) Marion Berry is also expected to run again, according to the piece. So that’s seven red-seat yeses and two probablies (Boucher and Berry). Not bad for a day’s work.