Month: December 2009

• CT-Sen: You know you’re in trouble when the trade publications that cover you start asking what your exit strategy is. CQ has an interesting piece that delves into the how, when, and where of how Chris Dodd might excuse himself from his not-getting-any-better Senate race, and it also asks who might take his place.

• DE-Sen: CQ has another speculative piece about another troublesome seat for Dems: what happens if Beau Biden doesn’t show up for his planned Senate race (he’s been mum so far, although most people expect him to run). The uncomfortable truth is there just isn’t much of a Plan B there, but options could include New Castle County Exec Chris Coons, or elbow-twisting Ted Kaufman to actually stand for re-election.

• CO-Gov: Considering how deep a hole Michael Bennet was in vis-a-vis Jane Norton, it shouldn’t be a surprise that Rasmussen’s gubernatorial numbers from last week’s Colorado sample aren’t very appetizing either. Republican ex-Rep. Scott McInnis leads incumbent Dem Bill Ritter 48-40, despite Ritter having 50% approval. (The thing is, he also has 50% disapproval. Rasmussen still managed to find 1% of all likely voters who don’t know. Which, of course, adds up to 101%.)

• HI-01: Rep. Neil Abercrombie is saying he’ll resign in a matter of weeks, not months. He still wouldn’t give a specific date, citing the uncertainty of timing of major votes coming up in the short term (not just health care reform, but also the locally-important Native Hawaiian recognition act).

• IA-03: Another Republican is getting into the field against Rep. Leonard Boswell, who’s never quite gotten secure in this swing district. Retired architect Mark Rees will join state Sen. Brad Zaun and former wrestling coach Jim Gibbons in the GOP primary; Rees seems to be striking a lot of moderate notes, in contrast to the rest of the field.

• IL-10: With state Rep. Julie Hamos having gotten the AFSCME’s endorsement yesterday, her Democratic primary opponent, Dan Seals, got his own big labor endorsement today, from the Illinois Federation of Teachers.

• MS-01: Despite having a painstakingly-cleared field for him, state Sen. Alan Nunnelee is still getting a primary challenge, apparently from the anti-establishment right. Henry Ross, the former mayor of Eupora, made his campaign official. Eupora, however, is tiny, and nowhere near the Memphis suburbs; remember that Tupelo-vs.-the-burbs was the main geographical fissure in the hotly contested and destructive GOP primary last year that paved the way for Democratic Rep. Travis Childers to win.

• NJ-03: Here’s another place where the Republican establishment got hosed by a primary-gone-bad last year, and where they’d like to avoid one next year: New Jersey’s 3rd. This is one where the county party chairs have a lot of sway, and candidates aren’t likely to run without county-level backing. Burlington County’s chair William Layton is already backing NFL player Jon Runyan, so the real question is what happens in Ocean County. Other possible GOP candidates include Toms River councilman Maurice Hill, assistant US Attorney David Leibowitz, Assemblyman Scott Rudder, and state Sen. Chris Connors.

• NY-19: Another report looks at the discontent brewing in the 19th, where Assemblyman Greg Ball bailed out, leaving wealthy moderate ophthalmologist Nan Hayworth in command of the GOP field. Much of the discontent seems to be less teabagger agita and more about a personal dispute between the Orange Co. GOP chair and Hayworth’s campaign advisor, but there are also concerns that Hayworth’s country-club positioning won’t work well in the blue-collar counties further upstream from her Westchester County base. Alternative challengers being floated include Tuxedo Park former mayor David McFadden and Wall Street guy Neil DiCarlo, as well as state Sen. Vincent Leibell, who may be unethused about running a GOP primary to hold his Senate seat against Ball and looking for something else to do.

• TN-06: The newly-open 6th may not be as much of a lost cause as everyone thinks; despite its dwindling presidential numbers, Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen won the district in both 2002 (with 52%) and 2006 (with 67%). The article also names some other Republicans who might show up for the race, besides state Sen. Jim Tracy and former Rutherford Co. GOP chair Lou Ann Zelenik (both already in): businessman Kerry Roberts, state Sen. Diane Black, Army Reserve Maj. Gen. Dave Evans, and real estate agent Gary Mann. One other Dem not previously mentioned is former state Sen. Jo Ann Graves.

• TX-17: Although they didn’t get the state Senator they wanted, Republicans seem pleased to have lined up a rich guy who can pay his own way against Rep. Chet Edwards: businessman Bill Flores. Flores has also made a name as a big contributor to his alma mater Texas A&M, a big presence in the district. 2008 loser Rob Curnock also remains in the GOP field.

• WA-03: Lots happening in the 3rd. One official entry is no surprise, given what we’d already heard this week: young Republican state Rep. Jaime Herrera is in. On the Dem side, as I expected, state Sen. Craig Pridemore is telling people he’s in, although hasn’t formalized anything. (H/t conspiracy.) Pridemore, who’s from central Vancouver, is probably one or two clicks to the left of state Rep. Deb Wallace (who’s already running), as befits his safer district; in recent years, he’d been the recipient of lots of arm-twisting from local activists eager to find someone to primary the increasingly uncooperative Brian Baird. Speaking of local activists, someone named Maria Rodriguez-Salazar also plans to run; she sounds like she’s on the moderate side of the Dem equation, though. Finally, for the GOPers, there have been persistent rumors that conservative radio talk show host Lars Larson is interested, although he may have debunked that.

• WV-01: Democratic Rep. Alan Mollohan is already facing state Sen. Clark Barnes (whose district has little overlap with the 1st), but that’s not stopping other GOP entrants: today, it’s Mac Warner, a lawyer and former West Point grad.

• DCCC: The DCCC is playing some offense against vulnerable GOP House members, with radio spots in five districts: Charlie Dent, Dan Lungren, Mary Bono Mack, Lee Terry, and Joe Wilson. The ad attacks the GOPers for voting for TARP last year but then voting against financial services reform now. The DCCC is being coy about the actual cost of the ad buy, though, suggesting it’s more about media coverage of the ads than the actual eyeballs.

• House: Bob Benenson has a lengthy piece looking at House retirements, finding that the pace really isn’t that much different from previous years, and talking to a variety of Dems who can’t decide whether or not it’s time to panic. The article suggests a few other possible retirees, some of whom shouldn’t be seen as a surprise (John Spratt, Ike Skelton) and a few more that seem pretty improbable (Baron Hill?).

• NRSC: The NRSC is doing what is can to shield its hand-picked establishment candidates from the wrath of the teabaggers, often by denying their transparent efforts to help them fundraise. Here’s one more example of how the NRSC isn’t doing so well at hiding those ties, though: they’ve set up joint fundraising accounts for some of their faves, including Kelly Ayotte, Trey Grayson, Carly Fiorina, and Sue Lowden, which is sure to fan more teabagger flames.

• AK-Legislature: Alaska’s tiny legislature (20 Senators and 40 Reps.) is looking to grow (to 24 and 48), hopefully before the next redistricting. As you can imagine, the small number of seats leaves many districts extremely large, geographically, and also stitching together many disparate communities of interest.

• Redistricting: I know everyone here likes to play redistricting on their computers, but for Californians, here’s an actual chance to get your hands on the wheel! California’s new redistricting commission is soliciting applications from members of the public to become members. Anyone who has worked for a politician or been on a party’s central committee is excluded, but there are seats for 5 Democrats and 4 “others” (including decline to state), so there are lots of slots that need progressives to fill them.

• Polltopia: PPP wants your input yet again. Where to next? Connecticut, Georgia, Illinois, Kentucky, or Massachusetts? (Although it looks like the poll has already been overwhelmingly freeped in favor of Kentucky by Rand Paul supporters…)

Public Policy Polling (pdf) (12/10-13, registered voters):

Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc): 46

Chris Nelson (R): 39

Undecided: 15

Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc): 52

Blake Curd (R): 31

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±3.7%)

PPP gave us our choice last week of which Dem-held sleeper race to pick, and South Dakota’s at-large seat was a good one to pick, as it’s emblematic of where House Dems are right now. Herseth Sandlin is personally popular (with 49/38 approvals) and, as a leader among the Blue Dogs, a good fit for her Republican-leaning district and not someone who’d leap to mind as among the most vulnerable. Still, as with many red-district House members, she’s suffering from association with the larger party (Barack Obama’s approval is 41/52, and approval of the House’s HCR bill is 25/59), and facing a stronger recruit than usual, in the form of outgoing Republican Secretary of State Chris Nelson.

The result is Herseth Sandlin up by a tolerable margin against Nelson, 46-39, although she’s below the 50% safety zone and Nelson is strangely unknown for a statewide official (29/12 favorables, with 59% unknown), giving him a lot of room for growth. She wins with little effort, though, against Sioux Falls-area state Rep. Blake Curd, who has only 6/13 favorables. I’m not sure what angle Curd has for getting out of the primary, though (other than self-financing, perhaps; Curd is a surgeon by day). In the end, given her personal popularity, Herseth Sandlin still has to be favored here, but this poll certainly indicates that further erosion in standing among national Dems could further harm her chances too.

RaceTracker Wiki: SD-AL

Fellow progressives, my name is John Marty; I am entering my 24th year in the Minnesota Senate, where I have fought for social and economic justice since day one.

In the Senate, I’ve championed LGBT rights (I am chief author of marriage equality legislation), I’ve fought for government ethics reform, I’ve designed and authored single-payer healthcare (www.mnhealthplan.org), I’ve taken on powerful interest groups to protect our environment, and I’ve championed legislation to get living wage jobs and move our economy forward. We now have over 70 co-authors on my single payer legislation — over a third of the legislature!

I am a Democratic candidate for Governor in 2010 running on true progressive principles, like Senator Paul Wellstone, principles that I hold with deep conviction. In 1994, I was the DFL nominee for governor, but like many other progressives running that year, the Gingrich Revolution and his “Contract ON America.” made our attempts unsuccessful.”

Never wavering from my progressive principles, we’ve established viability with a team of supporters focused on reclaiming the governorship. With our election, we can have a national impact across this country.

Imagine a governor with the courage to break the insurance industry’s grip on our health care system, passing single payer. Imagine making healthcare a right, not a privilege.

Just imagine what the national implications would be! Imagine the precedent we would set for Democratic Party candidates throughout this country to have a genuine, principled progressive as governor of a state.

Imagine a governor who puts LGBT marriage equality, ethics reform, living wages for workers, and environmental protection, front and center on the state’s agenda.

Over next several months, I will reach out here and on other blogs across the country to keep you updated about our campaign. Please take a minute to read this recent column I wrote about the need for political courage. Feel free to share it with friends.

Thank you and I look forward to reading your comments below.

Sincerely,

John

www.johnmarty.org

The Courage of our Convictions

By Sen. John Marty

   If 21st Century Progressives led the 19th Century Abolition Movement, we’d still have slavery, but we’d have limited it to 40 hour work weeks, and we’d be so proud of the progress we’d made.

   In earlier eras of U.S. history, progressives believed they could fight injustice and move society forward, and they did so. Today however, many progressives have lost faith in their ability to affect significant change. Many are content simply to tinker with problems, whether the issue is getting living wages for work, ending poverty, or removing toxins from our food supply.

   For example, consider universal health care. All progressives claim to support this, but many aren’t willing to fight for it — not because they believe it’s bad policy, but because they believe it is “politically unrealistic.” When our proposed Minnesota Health Plan is offered as a way to deliver universal health care, some dismiss it as legislation that can’t happen for decades. They talk about universal health care but offer and support proposals that are mere band-aids.

   It is instructive to look back to the past. Despite the reality that men were the only ones who held office and the only ones who could vote, suffragettes fought and won the seemingly impossible goal of gaining the right to vote. In the 1960’s civil rights activists believed they could get rid of segregation laws and get equal rights under the law. When told they were expecting change to occur too rapidly, Martin Luther King wrote a book explaining, “Why We Can’t Wait.”

   Today, however, regardless of the speed of other changes in society, many progressives have lost hope. For them, such a book would now be titled, “Why We Need to be Pragmatic and Accept Token Change.”

   This timidity can be explained by decades of defeat at the hands of right wing politicians like Newt Gingrich and Karl Rove, which caused many progressives to retreat from a “Politics of Principle” to a supposed “Politics of Pragmatism” that is not only lacking in courage, but also has been highly ineffective.

   Under the politics of principle, the progressive movement would fight for the goal, using pragmatic politics only to figure out how to promote the message.

   But with the current politics of misguided pragmatism, some progressives calculate what is politically acceptable, and then determine what they will stand for. For example, using this “pragmatism,” President Obama decided to push for health insurance for more instead of health care for all .

   One cannot totally fault the President for failing to push for comprehensive reform. He shied away from principle-based reform because he knows that members of Congress working on health reform take big campaign contributions from the health insurance lobby and other powerful interests. He knows that they are afraid of nasty campaign attacks and believe they need the big money to win reelection.

   “Pragmatically,” Democrats in Washington are pushing for “universal” health care that isn’t universal. They are pushing for reforms that cost more, not less, and policies that focus more on their sense of pragmatism than on real public health and prevention.

   It’s time for progressives to have the courage of our convictions. If we claim to believe in universal health care, we need to fight for it. The MN Health Plan — which covers everyone for all their medical needs, and costs less than we are spending now — is on the table. Those who are not willing to take on the powerful insurance lobby, ought to be honest and admit that reelection and other priorities matter more.

   Refusing to fight for it because it is “not politically realistic” becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Likewise, dismissing it as something that will take decades to pass means leaving the problem to the next generation.

   Whether the issue is living wages for workers, environmental protection, or LGBT equality, many progressives have lost courage. They fight to raise the minimum wage by fifty cents for every dollar that inflation takes away. Even in victory, we accomplish little.

   It is time to move beyond fear and stand up for the principles we say we believe in. Minnesotans deserve nothing less.

Three conservative Republicans have already announced plans to run against Representative Leonard Boswell in Iowa’s third Congressional district, and today retired architect Mark Rees of West Des Moines threw his hat in the ring too.  

William Petroski reports for the Des Moines Register:

Rees said he isn’t criticizing Democratic President Barack Obama or individual members of Congress.

“It’s not that I support what is and has been happening in Washington because I don’t any more than my fellow candidates,” Rees said in prepared remarks. “But it serves no legitimate purpose to craft politically motivated, emotionally driven statements laced with selected statistics promoting and promising unrealistic, unachievable results.” […]

Rees said he supports a federal balanced budget amendment, expanded job creation tax credits, capital investment tax credits for new equipment and facilities expansion and developing market import loan programs. He favors stronger border security, but wants to provide immigrants with a path to citizenship.

In addition, Rees said he wants to protect marriage between a man and a woman, but also believes in civil unions. He also favors cost-effective efforts to cap carbon emissions, but he does not support programs to allow pollution credits to be traded or purchased by any entity other than the government.

He said he supports expanding alternative energy programs through investment tax credit programs and a progressive tax structure that includes a vanishing long-term capital gains tax, a tiered short-term capital gains tax, a specialized market trading surtax, and a targeted short-sales capital gains tax.

West Des Moines is the largest suburb of Des Moines and one of the larger cities in IA-03, but many of the newest and wealthiest neighborhoods in West Des Moines lie in Dallas County, which is part of IA-04.

I have no idea whether Rees can self-fund or raise enough money to run a credible campaign during the primary. Dave Funk, Jim Gibbons and Brad Zaun will be competing to see who’s the most conservative, so it’s conceivable that a moderate could sneak through next June with a strong showing in the Des Moines suburbs.

If any of the other candidates drop out before then, though, I would put extremely long odds on GOP primary voters selecting someone who believes in civil unions for same-sex couples or a path to citizenship for immigrants who came to this country illegally.

Zaun doesn’t have any issue information on his website yet. Funk covers all the wingnut bases here. Gibbons recently announced one of the more idiotic tax proposals I’ve heard in a long time.

TUESDAY UPDATE: According to The Iowa Republican blog, Pat Bertroche is campaigning for this seat but has not filed paperwork with the FEC yet. So that would make five candidates if Bertroche goes forward.

(Cross-posted on the Swing State Project and the Daily Kos)

I apologize that this is a short diary (I am on my way to beautiful Oregon to spend the holidays with my family), but I just read this opinion piece by the Denver Post’s Fred Brown, and there are some very interesting statistics in the piece regarding recent voting registration patterns in the state of Colorado.  Here’s a link via ColoradoPols.com

http://www.coloradopols.com/di…

or this link to the article itself:

http://www.denverpost.com/opin…

From the article:

“Despite their president’s many problems, despite the angry town hall meetings, the poisonous partisanship in Congress, the Tea Party movement and the “birther” billboards, Democrats continue to gain numbers in Colorado.

Since August, in fact – the month of those town hall near-riots – Colorado Democrats have managed to gain slightly each month. There are currently about 10,000 more of them than Republicans…

Voter registration figures for November were released last week by the Colorado Secretary of State’s office …

Long range, the Democrats have some reason to be more optimistic. At the November 2006 elections, Republicans outnumbered Democrats in Colorado by more than 165,000 registered voters. By Election Day in November 2008, that margin had slipped to just 9,000 more Republicans than Democrats.

And today – in fact, for the past several months – Democrats have turned that around. They are now ahead of Republicans by between 9,000 and 10,000 registered voters, a trend that has shown tiny increases in the spread beginning in August….”

Obviously, Colorado will be a very important state for us in the years ahead. Together with New Mexico and Nevada (and possibly Arizona and even Texas in the future) it may provide us with an important electoral college edge in future Presidential elections.  It’s encouraging to see numbers like the ones quoted in the article above — especially in this “time of the teabaggers.”

• AR-Sen: We’re up to eight Republicans packed into the GOP Senate field in Arkansas, none of whom are exactly top-tier but many of whom seem to have the capability to win both the primary and the general against Blanche Lincoln. The new guy is Stanley Reed, and although he hasn’t held elective office before, he seems to have the insider connections to make a serious go of it: he is former president of the Arkansas Farm Bureau, and before that was chair of the Univ. of Arkansas Board of Trustees.

• CA-Sen/Gov: Here’s an interesting rumor, courtesy of Chris Cillizza: moderate ex-Rep. Tom Campbell, probably the GOP’s greatest threat in the general but an underfunded third-wheel in the gubernatorial primary, is considering moving over to the Senate race. Perhaps the news that Insurance Comm. Steve Poizner was planning to spend $15 million of his own moolah on his stalled gubernatorial bid was the last straw? It vaguely makes sense for Campbell (who has already run for Senate twice before, most recently in 2000), as he’d face off against underwhelming Carly Fiorina (who has lots of her own money, but no inclination to use it) and Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, who has nothing but the wrath of the teabaggers powering him.

• IL-Sen: The Chicago Tribune has released polls of the primary fields in the Illinois Senate race, revealing no surprises but also still a lot of people left to make up their minds. The Democratic field finds Alexi Giannoulias in the lead at 31, with Cheryle Jackson within kind-of striking distance at 17, David Hoffman at 9, and free-spending attorney Jacob Meister at 1 (with 38% undecided). For the GOP, the most notable number may be that Patrick Hughes, who’s gotten all the buzz as the guy behind whom all the right-wingers are coalescing, is actually getting nowhere at all. Hughes is at 3, tied with virtually unknown Kathleen Thomas (a former school board member from Springfield). Mark Kirk is at 41, but with 47% undecided, he still has a lot of selling to do. Speaking of which, the DSCC has a new website devoted solely to the man and his nonstop campaign-trail flip-flops: Two-Faced Kirk.

• IL-Gov: The same Chicago Tribune sample also looked at the gubernatorial primary fields. Incumbent Pat Quinn seems to be having little trouble on his path to the Dem nomination, beating Comptroller Dan Hynes 49-23. (Hynes may be second-guessing himself for getting into this race instead of the Senate field.) On the GOP side, it looks like former AG Jim Ryan (and 2002 loser) is in pole position despite his late entry to the race, thanks to being the only figure with statewide name rec. He’s at 26, with state party chair Andy McKenna at 12, downstate state Sen. Bill Brady at 10, suburban state Sen. Kirk Dillard at 9, businessman Adam Andrzejewski at 6, and DuPage Co. Board President Bob Schillerstrom at 2.

• PA-Gov: Rasmussen’s poll from last week of PA-Sen had a governor question too, and it shows all of the Dems getting thumped by Republican AG Tom Corbett. That probably has a lot to do with name recognition (Corbett gets his face in the news every day with Bonusgate, which is good for a bizarrely-high favorable of 59/18, while Auditor Jack Wagner is the only Dem with a statewide profile), but the Dems are starting out in a hole here once campaigning starts in earnest. Wagner fares best against Corbett, losing 43-30, while Corbett beats Allegheny Co. Exec Dan Onorato 44-28, ex-Rep. Joe Hoeffel 48-26, and Scranton mayor Chris Doherty 46-23.

• NY-Gov (pdf): Breaking! David Paterson is still in deep trouble. He’s at 23/76 approval, and 19/65 re-elects. He loses the Democratic primary to Andrew Cuomo 67-23 (and opinion is certainly solidifying behind Cuomo: 50% want him to run for Governor, while 31% want him to run again for AG). The good news is that Paterson still beats hapless ex-Rep. Rick Lazio in the general, 42-40, while Cuomo beats Lazio 68-22. Siena doesn’t look at Rudy Giuliani at all, making his disappearance from the governor’s race pretty apparent. Siena also takes a look at the Comptroller’s race (although without any William Thompson or Eliot Spitzer permutations), and find Dem Thomas DiNapoli beating GOPer John Faso, 40-24.

• RI-Gov: One state where the gubernatorial race looks less and less likely to go the Republicans’ way is Rhode Island, where their only announced candidate, businessman Rory Smith, quietly backed out of the race on Friday afternoon, citing his “limited political experience and political network.” Maybe state Rep. Joe Trillo could get coaxed back into the race for the GOP — or they could just throw their backing behind former Sen. and former Republican Lincoln Chafee‘s independent bid (although based on his recent comments about the state party, it doesn’t sound like he’d want anything to do with their backing).

• SC-Gov (pdf): One more gubernatorial poll, leftover from last week. PPP polled South Carolina, and found numbers very similar to Rasmussen‘s numbers from last week. Basically, Democrats need to hope for a matchup between Jim Rex (the Superintendent of Education, and only statewide Dem officeholder) and hard-partying, car-racing, plane-crashing Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer; Rex wins that matchup, 37-36. Dems lose every other permutation. Bauer manages to beat state Sen. Vincent Sheheen 38-33, and Robert Ford 37-33. AG Henry McMaster beats Rex 40-31, Sheheen 41-27, and Ford 42-27. And Rep. Gresham Barrett beats Rex 40-33, Sheheen 41-26, and Ford 42-28. (By way of comparison, Rasmussen finds Rex beating Bauer 36-35 and losing his other matchups.) PPP didn’t poll the primaries, but based on favorables, McMaster may be the likeliest GOP nominee, at 30/20, compared with Barrett, little-known outside his district at 14/17, and Bauer, toxic at 22/43. PPP also ran a generic D ballot against GOP Sen. Jim DeMint, who has no-name opposition so far, finding DeMint winning 47-38.

• TX-Gov: As expected, Kinky Friedman ended his Democratic gubernatorial primary bid today. Friedman declined to endorse either Bill White (whose entry probably precipitated Friedman’s exit) or Farouk Shami, despite some connections to Shami. What may not have been expected was that Friedman dropped down to the Agriculture Commissioner race, where he’ll join fellow gubernatorial race refugee Hank Gilbert. While Friedman doesn’t seem to have an agricultural background, he does have as an advisor and backer former Ag Comm. and populist pundit Jim Hightower.

• ID-01: I hadn’t heard any rumblings about this happening, but in case anyone was wondering, Larry Grant (the former software exec who barely lost the 2006 ID-01 race to Bill Sali) said he wouldn’t primary Democratic freshman Rep. Walt Minnick in 2010. Minnick has raised some hackles for being the most conservative member of the Democratic caucus (not that that shouldn’t be a surprise in an R+18 district, but he’s been taking that to extremes lately, leading the way to scrap the new Consumer Financial Protection Agency). Grant also denied that he’d be running in 2010 as a moderate Republican (conceivably to Minnick’s left?), although he seemed to suggest that he could prevail against that field of wannabes, accusing Vaughn Ward of being a “Sarah Palin Republican” and Raul Labrador a “Bill Sali Republican.” (I wonder what that would make Bill Sali, if he decided to jump in?)

• IL-10: In the Democratic primary clash in the open 10th, state Rep. Julie Hamos scored a big labor endorsement today, from the AFSCME.

• IL-14: Ethan Hastert a moderate? Either the apple falls far from the tree, or the Main Street Partnership is having to greatly expand their definition of “moderate” is order to stay relevant in a GOP intent on purging itself into oblivion. At any rate, the Main Streeters’ PAC gave to Hastert (making clear where the ideological fault lines lie in his primary against state Sen. Randy Hultgren), along with OH-15’s Steve Stivers, OH-16’s Jim Renacci, and NH-02’s Charlie Bass.

• KS-03: The specter of Republican civil war in the open seat race in Kansas’s 3rd is abating, as state Sen. (and 2008 loser) Nick Jordan has the respect of both the moderate and conservative wings of the state’s party. Maybe most significantly, state Sen. Jeff Colyer, from the fire-breathing camp, said today that he won’t challenge Jordan in the primary. Moderate state Rep. Kevin Yoder is still exploring the race, though.

• PA-10: Sophomore Democratic Rep. Chris Carney has been one of the juiciest targets with only token Republican opposition, but the GOP may have found an elected official willing to take him on: state Rep. Michael Peifer, who represents a rural portion of the district.

• SC-01: Another Dem is in the hunt in the 1st, for the right to go up against Rep. Henry Brown (assuming he survives his primary). Retired Navy officer and accountant Dick Withington is getting in; his only political experience is losing a state Rep. race in 2004.

• TN-03: The open seat in the 3rd should be attracting at least some Democratic interest, but following the withdrawal of establishment candidate Paula Flowers last month, now even the race’s Some Dude bailed out: businessman (and 2006 loser) Brent Benedict got out, citing family health concerns. A few other potentially-credible Democrats are now looking at the race, though, including Chattanooga city councilor Andrae McGary and Hamilton County Democratic party chair Jeff Brown.

• TX-10: Democratic businessman Jack McDonald has gotten lots of buzz for solid fundraising for a potential run against GOP Rep. Michael McCaul, who looks increasingly shaky in the demographically-changing 10th. Last week, he removed the “exploratory” part of his campaign account, making it official, although clearly he’s been acting like a candidate all year.

• VA-05: The Virginia GOP decided on a primary, rather than a convention, to pick the person who takes on endangered freshman Rep. Tom Perriello in the 5th. In a weird way, the primary is better news for the party’s establishment, as the conventions tend to be dominated by the extremists who pick pure but unelectable candidates (recall last year’s Senate flap, where the decision to have a convention drove out moderate Rep. Tom Davis and left them with ex-Gov. Jim Gilmore). With their top contender, state Sen. Rob Hurt, coming from the sane wing of the party, that increases his odds of getting through to the general — but the downside is that this may drive dissatisfied teabaggers to the third-party right-wing candidacy of Bradley Rees in the general.

• WA-03: A journeyman Democrat is considering the open seat race in the 3rd, potentially setting up a primary with early entrant state Rep. Deb Wallace. Denny Heck was a state Rep. in the 80s, lost a Superintendent of Education race, became Gov. Booth Gardner’s chief of staff, and then founded TVW, the state’s local equivalent of C-SPAN. The article also mentions a couple other Dems interested in the race not previously mentioned, including state Sen. Brian Hatfield.

• Mayors: In a runoff election that had an undercurrent of homophobia thanks to the involvement of outside groups, city controller Annise Parker won on Saturday, making Houston by far the largest city to ever elect an openly LGBT mayor. She defeated former city attorney Gene Locke 53-47.

• Redistricting: The Texas Tribune takes a look at the many moving parts in legislative redistricting post-2010 in Texas. Factors include whether the Dems will be able to pick up the state House next year (sounding less likely), and which state officials are on the Legislative Redistricting Board (which takes over if the legislature can’t agree, which seems likely anyway since there’s a 2/3s requirement for the maps to clear the Senate and the GOP is short of 2/3s there).

• Demographics: Governing Magazine has an interesting piece on Gwinnett County, Georgia, which is as good an example as any of how suburbs, even in some of the reddest states, are becoming bluer as they become more diverse thanks to immigration. Gwinnett County has fallen below 50% non-Hispanic white, and it gave Obama 44% of the vote last year.

• Polltopia: PPP is asking for help yet again on which congressional district to poll next. This time, it’ll be a GOP-held district: Michele Bachmann’s MN-06, Lee Terry’s NE-02, or Pat Tiberi’s OH-12.

More bad news for the DCCC:

Rep. Bart Gordon (D-TN) will retire after 13 terms, he announced today in a press release, becoming the 4th Dem in a potentially competitive district to step down in the past 4 weeks.

First elected in 1984, Gordon had a solid hold on his seat, winning his past 5 re-election bids with more than 60% of the vote; his office said he has never lost any of the 15 counties he represents. He is stepping down, he said, after re-evaluating his future.

“When I was elected, I was the youngest member of the Tennessee congressional delegation; now, I’m one of the oldest. In fact, I have members of my staff who weren’t even born when I took office. That tells me it’s time for a new chapter,” Gordon said in a statement.

At a PVI of R+13, this seat will be even tougher than John Tanner’s open 8th District (R+6) to defend. While Al Gore just barely lost Gordon’s district in 2000, Barack Obama was crushed here by 25 points last year. (John Kerry didn’t fare much better in the interim, losing by 20 points.)

It’s unclear whether Dems have anyone on the farm team who will step up to run for the seat. For the Republicans, a primary is expected between Rutherford Co. GOP chair Lou Ann Zelenik and state Sen. Jim Tracy.

UPDATE: Hotline On Call posts the names of a few possible Democratic contenders:

A Dem source points out early names floated as possible Gordon replacements, including state Reps. Mike McDonald and Hank Fincher, Wilson Co. Property Assessor Jack Pratt, Wilson Co. Sheriff Terry Ashe, ex-state Sen. Andy Womack and Kent Syler, a top Gordon aide.

LATER UPDATE: Politico also mentions Murfreesboro mayor Tommy Bragg as a possible Democratic candidate.

RaceTracker Wiki: TN-06

First thank to Dave by his very good application for redistricting and thanks to the people what help me for save and up here the maps. This is my first diary here.

Well, im not expert in laws for redistricting but i hope to respect all. I try let all incumbents their own district, let all democrats safe, and make so compact districts respecting the county borders.

These are the results:

CD1: (Blue) Frank Kratovil (D)

– D+8 Obama 61% McCain 37%

– Include all of Kent, Queen Anne’s, Caroline and Talbot counties.

– Include part of Baltimore county and part of Baltimore city.

– White 57% Black 36%

– Deviation of population: -1673

CD2: (Green) Dutch Ruppersberger (D)

– D+8 Obama 61% McCain 37%

– Include all of Carroll county.

– Include part of Baltimore, Howard and Prince George’s counties.

– White 50% Black 29% Hisp 14%

– Deviation of population: -3402

CD3: (Purple) John Sarbanes (D)

– D+11 Obama 64% McCain 34%

– Include part of Baltimore, Howard and Anne Arundel counties.

– White 56% Black 30%

– Deviation of population: -2964

CD4: (Red) Donna Edwards (D)

– D+10 Obama 63% McCain 36%

– Include part of Prince George’s and Anne Arundel counties.

– White 54% Black 38%

– Deviation of population: -557

CD5: (Yellow) Steny Hoyer (D)

– D+10 Obama 63% McCain 36%

– Include all of Charles, Calvert, St-Mary’s, Dorchester, Wicomico, Somerset and Worcester counties.

– Include part Prince George’s county.

– White 56% Black 36%

– Deviation of population: -3580

CD6: (Greenish blue) Roscoe Bartlett (R)

– D+10 Obama 63% McCain 36%

– Include part of Frederick and Montgomery counties.

– White 58% Black 16% Hisp 13% Asian 11%

– Deviation of population: +8208

CD7: (Gray) Elijah Cummings (D)

– D+8 Obama 61% McCain 37%

– Include all of Cecil and Hartford counties.

– Include part of Baltimore county and part of Baltimore city.

– White 60% Black 34%

– Deviation of population: -3148

CD8: (Lilac) Chris Van Hollen (D)

– D+8 Obama 61% McCain 37%

– Include all of Garrett, Allegany and Washington counties.

– Include part of Frederick and Montgomery counties.

– White 70% Black 10% Hisp 10% Asian 8%

– Deviation of population: +7113

These results are using new population estimations. CD6 and CD8 have few more population because i try to respect county borders.

Im not sure if E Cummings get inside his new 7th district but i think he have a good part of Baltimore in the new district.

In images:

UPDATE FOR INCLUDE BLACK MAJORITIES IN CD4 AND CD7:

Giving black majorities of 50% to 4th and 7th district these are the results:

CD1: (Blue) Frank Kratovil (D)

– D+6 Obama 59% McCain 39%

– Include all of Kent, Queen Anne’s, Caroline and Talbot counties.

– Include part of Baltimore, Anne Arundel and Prince George’s counties and part of Baltimore city.

– White 65% Black 26%

– Deviation of population: +6012

CD2: (Green) Dutch Ruppersberger (D)

– D+7 Obama 60% McCain 39%

– Include part of Harford, Baltimore, Carrol, Howard, Montgomery and Prince George’s counties.

– White 50% Black 26% Hisp 15%

– Deviation of population: -4800

CD3: (Purple) John Sarbanes (D)

– D+7 Obama 60% McCain 39%

– Include part of Harford, Baltimore, Howard counties and part of Baltimore city.

– White 64% Black 25% Asian 6%

– Deviation of population: -2980

CD4: (Red) Donna Edwards (D)

– D+17 Obama 70% McCain 29%

– Include part of Prince George’s and Anne Arundel counties.

– Black 50% White 42%

– Deviation of population: +3968

CD5: (Yellow) Steny Hoyer (D)

– D+6 Obama 59% McCain 40%

– Include all of Charles, Calvert, St-Mary’s, Dorchester, Wicomico, Somerset and Worcester counties.

– Include part Prince George’s and Anne Arundel counties.

– White 63% Black 30%

– Deviation of population: +3283

CD6: (Greenish blue) Roscoe Bartlett (R)

– D+7 Obama 60% McCain 39%

– Include part of Carroll, Frederick and Montgomery counties.

– White 61% Black 14% Hisp 13% Asian 10%

– Deviation of population: -1859

CD7: (Gray) Elijah Cummings (D)

– D+16 Obama 69% McCain 30%

– Include all of Cecil county.

– Include part of Harford and Baltimore counties and part of Baltimore city.

– Black 50% White 44%

– Deviation of population: +1739

CD8: (Lilac) Chris Van Hollen (D)

– D+7 Obama 60% McCain 38%

– Include all of Garrett, Allegany and Washington counties.

– Include part of Frederick and Montgomery counties.

– White 73% Black 9% Hisp 8% Asian 8%

– Deviation of population: -5366

These results are using new population estimations.

In images:

In the last few weeks, Rasmussen Reports – already among the most prolific pollsters – has released a torrent of new senate and gubernatorial polls. While political junkies might instinctively be grateful for all the data, partisans have to be concerned about Rasmussen’s ability to drive the over-arching narrative. This is all the more so given widespread concerns about Rasmussen’s methodology – concerns which have given rise to at least two new detailed analyses on Pollster.com this month, one by Mark Blumenthal and the second by Alan Abramowitz.

I personally think Rasmussen Reports has an axe to grind – their made-up way of reporting presidential favorables and their questionable non-electoral polls make me mistrustful. At the same time, we don’t want to stick our heads in the sand, and 538.com’s pollster ratings do indicate that Rasmussen seems to be interested in getting things right, at least as far as the horserace is concerned. So we’ve decided to package up the most recent Raz surveys and let ’em all at you in one blast.

CT-Sen (12/7, likely voters, 9/10 in parens):

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 35 (39)

Rob Simmons (R): 48 (49)

Other: 7 (5)

Undecided: 11 (6)

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 39 (42)

Peter Schiff (R): 40 (40)

Other: 8 (7)

Undecided: 14 (10)

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 38

Linda McMahon (R): 43

Other: 8

Undecided: 9

(MoE: ±4.5%)

CO-Sen (12/8, likely voters, 9/15 in parens):

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 37 (36)

Jane Norton (R): 46 (45)

Other: 8 (7)

Undecided: 8 (12)

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 41

Tom Wiens (R): 42

Other: 7

Undecided: 10

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 38

Ken Buck (R): 42

Other: 8

Undecided: 12

Andrew Romanoff (D): 34 (34)

Jane Norton (R): 45 (42)

Other: 7 (8)

Undecided: 15 (15)

Andrew Romanoff (D): 40

Tom Wiens (R): 41

Other: 5

Undecided: 14

Andrew Romanoff (D): 39

Ken Buck (R): 41

Other: 6

Undecided: 14

(MoE: ±4.5%)

IL-Sen (12/9, likely voters, 10/14 in parens):

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 42 (41)

Mark Kirk (R): 39 (41)

Other: 3 (4)

Undecided: 14 (13)

Cheryle Jackson (D): 39 (39)

Mark Kirk (R): 42 (43)

Other: 4 (4)

Undecided: 15 (13)

David Hoffman (D): 38 (33)

Mark Kirk (R): 42 (43)

Other: 3 (8)

Undecided: 17 (16)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

NV-Sen (12/9, likely voters, 9/14 in parens):

Harry Reid (D-inc): 43 (40)

Sue Lowden (R): 49 (50)

Other: 6 (4)

Undecided: 3 (5)

Harry Reid (D-inc): 43 (43)

Danny Tarkanian (R): 49 (50)

Other: 6 (4)

Undecided: 2 (3)

Harry Reid (D-inc): 43

Sharron Angle (R): 47

Other: 7

Undecided: 3

(MoE: ±4.5%)

OH-Sen (12/7, likely voters, 9/23 in parens):

Lee Fisher (D): 36 (40)

Rob Portman (R): 38 (41)

Other: 8 (6)

Undecided: 18 (14)

Jennifer Brunner (D): 33 (38)

Rob Portman (R): 40 (40)

Other: 7 (5)

Undecided: 20 (18)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

OH-Gov (12/7, likely voters,  9/23 in parens):

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 39 (45)

Jon Kasich (R): 48 (46)

Other: 3 (3)

Undecided: 11 (7)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

SC-Gov (12/2, likely voters, no trendlines):

Jim Rex (D): 33

Gresham Barrett (R): 39

Other: 7

Undecided: 21

Jim Rex (D): 36

Andre Bauer (R): 35

Other: 13

Undecided: 16

Jim Rex (D): 32

Henry McMaster (R): 39

Other: 10

Undecided: 19

Vincent Sheheen (D): 23

Gresham Barrett (R): 45

Other: 11

Undecided: 20

Vincent Sheheen (D): 29

Andre Bauer (R): 39

Other: 13

Undecided: 19

Vincent Sheheen (D): 26

Henry McMaster (R): 43

Other: 10

Undecided: 21

(MoE: ±4.5%)

For the final word, I’ll turn things over to Jon Stewart. The ever-brights at Fox & Friends had some difficulty in retransmitting a misleadingly-worded (and dodgy) Rasmussen survey on global warming, leading Stewart to opine (at 1:50) that this poll had a margin of error of “monkey-fuck ridiculous”:

Rasmussen Reports, you decide.