Month: January 2010

New York is a very Democratic state. It voted for Barack Obama by more than twenty-five points.

But it’s not uniformly Democratic. You can’t make 28 63-36 Obama districts, because whilst Obama won the Five Boroughs by somewhere in the region of 1.6m votes, his margin in the rest of the state was only half a million votes, which my very hurried mental arithmetic tells me is about a 55-45% margin.

What’s more, even there the vote is concentrated. Obama recorded convincing victories in major population centres such as Albany, Syracuse, Rochester, Buffalo and Yonkers, but he also lost twenty-six counties in the state.

If NYC was located where Albany is, these hurdles would be much more manageable. One could send out tendrils across the state, pairing the bluest bits of Manhattan with the reddest bits of Hamilton County. But with NYC’s actual position, the best you can do is send a rainbow through Westchester and those unbearably ugly tentacles would in any case peter out somewhere around Delaware and Schoharie counties. [EDIT: Turns out abgin proved me wrong.]

All of which is a very long way of saying that I don’t think a sustainable 28-0 map for Democrats exists. In fact, I don’t think 27-1 can ever be properly secure and if we hadn’t run the table since 2006, I’d be sceptical of 26-2.

So why am I trying for 27-1? Because I want to win this competition, and figure I’ll do better with a more ambitious gerrymander. No, this isn’t an unbreakable map. But it does seem likely to flip one Republican district and to drastically increase the survival chances of at least three Democrats, without making any incumbent more vulnerable than they already are.

I’ve drawn this map with a couple of aims besides those given in the contest rules. Firstly, I’ve attempted to reduce the number of obvious gerrymanders, such as Hinchey’s leg to Ithaca. I’ve paid more attention to this Upstate, whereas in NYC I’ve figured that nobody cares about the present gerrymanders so I can draw some atrocious looking districts when it benefits me. Long Island falls somewhere in between – the lines aren’t clean, but I junked a couple of early drafts where they got too silly.

Secondly, I’ve tried to preserve towns intact, on the basis that keeping counties whole makes the process very difficult, but towns are functional enough as units of local government for that to be used as a defence. This hasn’t applied on Long Island, where the towns are too large, the borders aren’t given in Dave’s app and it makes effective gerrymandering extremely difficult.

Nor have I followed district boundaries in New York, as that would take ages, screw with the VRA districts and give me a tremendous headache for very little benefit. Where possible, however, I have tried to preserve neighbourhoods fairly intact.

Finally, I’ve tried to make districts where constituent service is possible. Some measure of compactness and community of interest has been used as a criterion. Whilst this has prevented me from all the fun you can have with a Long Island Sound district, I did completely ignore this rule for the 9th. But that’s OK, because I was actively trying to make the votes of southern Staten Island irrelevant, and at last I didn’t follow my earlier plan of sticking it into the 11th!

NY 28 (light purple): No incumbent (Louise Slaughter – D)

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
704928	185889	125411	59	40	69	30	77	14	1	6

This district – composed of north-west Buffalo, most of Niagara county, the Orleans coast, north-west Monroe and all but the very east of Rochester – does not look like Louise Slaughter’s old district. It looks even more like John LaFalce’s district than the current 28th does. Slaughter doesn’t even live in this district – Perington, where she has her residence, was only just inside the 28th and including it would have shaved two points off Obama’s margin.

On the other hand, the chairwoman of the House Rules Committee is not going to lose a district that includes most of Rochester and a sizeable proportion of Buffalo. She can move and survive. And whilst her retirement in a bad year might give somebody like Maziarz a chance in a great Republican year in a 57% Obama district, a 59% Obama district is pretty much bulletproof.

Hopefully Louise will move and continue to win for another decade. It not, we can at least be sure that her successor will be a reliable vote.

NY 27 (Painful green): Brian Higgins – D, Chris Lee – R

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
695684	192096	130007	59	40	54	44	79	14	2	3

Not much change for Higgins’ district. It exchanges some of its sections of Buffalo for NY-28’s and swaps south-east for northern Erie (hence moving Chris Lee’s home into a district he can’t win) but retains seemingly similar lines. Blacker bits of Buffalo, however, raise Obama’s percentage here to 59%. Higgins becomes absolutely safe.

NY 26 (Dark grey): No incumbent (Chris Lee – R)

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
694230	136584	179963	42	56	46	52	94	2	1	1

The district retains the core of the old 26th, but replaces suburbs and exurbs of Rochester and Buffalo for much of the Southern Tier. All Cattaraugus and Allegany counties, plus all of Steuben bar Corning, joins eastern Erie (but not Clarence), most of Yates, half of Schuyler and south-western Ontario in the district. In return, the district gives up almost all Niagara as well as the towns of Gates, Greece and Parma.

McCain would have won this district 56-42, so any Republican ought to be safe here, but with its incumbent drawn out, there could be an interesting primary as several Republican State Senators may want to jump ship from that redistricting. Ranzenhofer in the 61st is out, as he lives in Clarence, but Volker in the 59th (just) and Young in the second both live in the district and represent much of it.

NY-25 (dark pink): Dan Maffei – D

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
706912	185238	136930	56	42	56	43	88	6	2	2

Maffei’s district retains Onondaga County, but otherwise is almost entirely different. Whereas previously it went westwards, towards Rochester, here it gives up northern Cayuga, Wayne and north-east Monroe to the 23rd, and heads south-east through territory largely represented by Arcuri. Absorbing all of Madison, Cortland and Chenango, plus most of Otsego and the southern half of Cayuga, it finishes up by taking a tiny sliver of Herkimmer so as to help out NY-20.

Despite its shift in orientation, the district remains at 56% Obama. Only scandal or a 1994 style wave is likely to worry Maffei.

NY-24 (blue verging on purple): Eric Massa – D, Louise Slaughter – D

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
698110	190684	142212	56	42	51	48	89	4	3	2

The number is Arcuri’s, but the district is made for Massa. I decided to avoid reshaping Higgins’ district too much, so I couldn’t send the district to Buffalo and needed to keep Binghamton in the 22nd to avoid imperilling Hinchey, so maintaining its orientation towards Rochester was inevitable.

However, its previous southern tier character has been largely removed, since those counties are simply too red to secure Massa. Only Massa’s home in Corning is preserved from Steuben County, from where the district heads east into Chenango and Tioga, before turning north-west.

Arcuri will miss Tompkins County, but an outspoken liberal like Massa needs somewhere like Ithaca in his district. The 24th then takes in some of the better bits of Yates and Schuyler, all of Seneca and the more heavily populated bits of Ontario, including Geneva and Canandaigua, before absorbing most of eastern Monroe, including East Rochester, as well as the 6th, 21st and 23rd wards of Rochester.

Although it stretches from Lake Ontario to the Pennsylvania border, I’d like to think it doesn’t look too horribly gerrymandered. I’m not sure many would agree with me however, and it most certainly is, since Obama got 56% here, an improvement of 8% from the old 29th and 5% from the current 24th. Short of Slaughter deciding to run here, Massa is safe.

NY-23 (mildly feverish green): Bill Owens – D

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
705623	149248	130941	52	46	52	47	93	3	1	2

Perhaps less a North Country district now than a Great Lakes-Canadian border district, the district drops its southern protusions in return for Wayne County, the rest of Essex County and the town of Webster in Monroe.

Although the lines are perhaps neater, the percentages don’t change much. Obama stays on 56%, whilst McCain drops a point.

Hoffman now lives in the 23rd, but his three best counties in the special election, Madison, Oneida (part) and Lewis, have now been entirely removed from the district. Wayne County is more conservative than any of them, but Owens is at least no more in danger of teabagging under this map than he is right now. Only one Republican Senator, Joseph Griffo, lives in and represents the new 23rd.

NY-22 (brown): Maurice Hinchey – D

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
703054	175214	139995	55	44	59	39	86	5	2	6

I think this district is an improvement on the old 22nd, although it isn’t as compact as I’d hoped. In fact it actually includes one more county than the current district.

This district isn’t as Democratic, but I don’t think Hinchey needs it. He’s a great representative, but he’s not a magnet for controversy and he’s won in tough conditions before.

It begins in Broome – which isn’t as strong as you might think, as northern Broome is conservative enough to partly balance Binghamton, before continuing into strongly Republican Delaware and Greene counties.

The bulk of the district’s population is situated to the south. Hinchey keeps all of Sullivan and Ulster counties, and has two separate bits of northern Orange – one in the north-west, taking in Port Jervis and stopping more or less where the NJ border begins, and one around Middletown, in territory he mostly already represents.

To the north, the district takes pressure off those around it by adding bits of Otsego and Schoharie to Greene and Delaware. In the east, it takes in most of Columbia County, bordering Massachusetts but also takes Schodack in Rensslaer so the 20th can take north-east Columbia.

NY-21 (red wine stain): Paul Tonko – D

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
703431	186093	144815	55	43	58	40	89	5	2	3

The 21st looks similar, but moves north and west to gain populationand help out the 20th. In the process it gets less Democratic, but at 55% Obama it’s hardly marginal.

Tonko keeps all of Montgomery and Schenechtady and also gains all of Fulton. To this I added bits of Herkimmer and Otsego, Saratoga south of Saratoga Springs, most of Schoharie and almost all of Albany.

Not all, however. Several wards in Albany are moved to the 20th to shore that one up. i can’t imagine state legislators are overjoyed, but at less than 100000 Albany is too small to control a district, and might actually find its influence enhanced by being split.

NY-20 (skin pink): Scott Murphy – D, Michael Arcuri – D

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
700948	156774	148240	51	48	51	48	91	5	1	2

This district voted for Obama, but to be honest it leans Republican. It may actually lose us two Democratic incumbents.

Either way, it loses us one. Utica and Glens Falls are combined, throwing Murphy and Arcuri into the same district.

The reasons I picked these two are various, and combine the political and the pragmatic. Firstly Upstate needed to lose a district. Secondly carving up Chris Lee makes his neighbours more vulnerable, and I wanted to keep Massa. Thirdly, rural New York east of Syracuse just doesn’t have enough strong clumps of Democrats – not unless they suddenly annex Vermont and gerrymander that in. Fourthly, Murphy is junior and Arcuri is a weak campaigner. Fifthly, they’re both Blue Dogs and Murphy in particular is an unreliable vote.

The district itself is not just a mash-up of the current 20th and 24th. Much of the 24th has been reassigned to Maffei and Massa, whilst the 20th loses its southern portions.

Instead the district begins Oneida County, housing Rome, which is surprisingly conservative for a city, and Arcuri’s home in Utica. It heads north to take in Lewis county, then takes in most of Herkimmer county (although much more in terms of area than in terms of population).

Next up is Hamilton, Obama’s worst county in the state. It’s followed by Warren, where Murphy lives, and northern Saratoga (including Saratoga Springs). The district then turns down the Vermont border. It keeps all of Washington and heads on into Rensselaer.

Here it picks up Troy and heads across the river into Albany in a desperate bid to find some Democratic votes. It drops marginal Schodack township and replaces it with heavily Democratic Chatham, Canaan and New Lebanon townships in Columbia.

The end result is a 51-48 Obama district, which both the 20th and 24th now are. However, the unfamiliar territory and heavily rural nature makes it a tough hold, however, especially in Republican years. And its more northerly orientation probably means it won’t blue as fast as Hudson Valley districts.

I can’t say for sure how the primary will go. I’d like to think Murphy’s anti-HCR vote will doom him, but he probably represents slightly more of this district already, so I’d favour him to win the primary and lose to a pro-HCR Republican that November.

NY-19 (grassy green): John Hall – D

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
694702	171172	132308	56	43	51	48	78	8	3	10

Hall will like this much improved district for him. It swaps much of its current incursions into Orange County for northern Dutchess, drops Carmel from Putnam and pushes south into Westchester as far as Mount Pleasant.

The end result is a 5% rise for Obama and a concommitant fall for McCain.

NY-18 (yellow): Nita Lowey – D

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
694795	185455	112686	62	38	62	38	65	14	5	15

Rather than throwing her district across the sound, I elected to continue the process of throwing Lowey’s district further north. It begins in Carmel and similarly conservative bits of Putnam and proceeds south into Westchester.

Skirting around Mount Kisco, Bedford and Newcastle, it then proceeds to its effective anchor – southern Westchester. It takes in more of this than it does now – the 17th gives up Mount Vernon and a bit more of Yonkers to this district. The end result is that the margins are largely unchanged for Obama and McCain.

NY-17 (dark blue): Eliot Engel – D

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
699892	160041	117574	57	42	72	28	67	11	4	15

Although this is the first district to cross the city lines, this isn’t really a NYC district. It’s much more of a Rockland district. It takes in the whole of that county and expands into Orange.

It then sends a thin line through Westchester, taking in the Yonkers shore, before crossing over in to the Bronx.

Containing Riverdale, Van Cortlandt Park and associated bits of the Borough, the district remains safe.

Nevertheless, whilst Engel – moderate, able to appeal to conservative Orthodox Jews and eminently suited to represented an outer suburbs district – is in no danger, the district loses enough Democrats that Obama only got 57%.

NY-16 (neon green): Jose Serrano – D

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
701769	170961	8917	95	5	95	5	2	32	1	62

What’s to say? This district is largely unchanged. It drops its spur into Queens, it spreads a bit further east and it loses Fordham and environs to the 15th. But it’s basically the same extremely Hispanic South Bronx district as before.

NY-15 (orange): Charlie Rangel – D

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
706507	200710	13410	93	6	93	6	10	30	3	55

The 15th abandons Queens and heads into the Bronx.

Beginning at Central Park, it heads through Harlem to Washington Heights, before crossing into the Fordham/University Heights area in the Bronx.

In the process, it goes from a minority-majority district to a Hispanic-majority district. At 55% Hispanic, it’s actually more Hispanic than Velazquez’s. With those kinds of numbers, it wouldn’t surprises me if the Justice Department imposes a VRA Hispanic district here anyway.

NY-14 (unfortunate brown): Caroline Maloney

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
695589	232945	55306	80	19	78	21	65	4	16	12

Continuing with my habit of confining districts to one borough, NY-14 is yet another district that doesn’t enter Queens. In exchange for its territory there, it heads further south into Manhattan, reaching as far as the Lower East Side and Chinatown.

The white population drops 8% to 65% and Obama improves two points to 80%.

NY-13 (salmon pink): Mike McMahon

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
703495	108243	75500	58	41	49	51	56	7	14	19

I know there’s no good reason to split Staten Island, but it’s fun. My only defence is that I tried to keep to existing boundaries to some extent. Lou Tobacco’s assembly district is almost entirely removed, and much of Janele Hyer-Spencer’s district is also lost.

Over the Verranzano Narrows, much more of Brooklyn has to be absorbed. Bay Ridge, Dyker Heights, Gravesend and Bensonhurst stay in the district, which snakes around Borough Park to take in Sunset Park and Red Hook.

At 58% Obama, it’s probably strong enough to deal with the Staten Island backlash for screwing them over. As an added bonus, McMahon would under these lines very likely be succeeded by a Brooklyn Democrat. As a 56% white district, he might even be replaced by a Hispanic.

NY-12 (light blue): Nydia Velazquez – D

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
701512	138150	26924	83	16	86	13	22	10	13	51

As much a Queens district as a Brooklyn one, this district takes in Williamsburg, Bushwick, Sunnyside, bits of Woodside, South Corona and Elmhurst.

I can’t say much more about this, because I know nothing about NYC. 83% Obama can’t be bad though.

NY-11 (NY-16 green): Yvette Clarke

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
704746	203935	27185	88	12	91	9	26	54	5	11

This central Brooklyn district is the standard blacks and Republicans mixture. Ocean Park and similar dead-losses are combined with Flatbush, Crown Heights and Bedford-Stuyvesant for a 54% black and monolithically Democratic district.

Assuming I drew the lines right and Clarke doesn’t have to move, she has nothing to complain about here.

NY-10 (dark pink): Edolphus Towns

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
704474	167880	42933	79	20	91	9	30	51	5	11

This district, to my mind, looks like a man in a homburg hat vacuuming. Just so you know…

It’s the same principle as NY-11, but more so. From East New York and Brownsville, it sends a thin tendril through Canarsie into Georgetown before absorbing Republicans around Manhattan Terrace and Home Crest, before continuing on to Coney Island and Sea Crest. Only 79% Obama.

NY-9 (light blue): Anthony Weiner

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
697804	120275	87072	58	42	55	44	53	10	9	22

A conscious monstrosity, this district combines central Queens with southern Staten Island via the Rockaway Peninsula, Manhattan Beach and Marine Park. Bits of north-east Brooklyn were added in to pad the margins.

At 58% Obama, it’s not actually as much of an improvement as it might have been, and Weiner is probably a better fit for Brooklyn Jews than Staten Island Italians.

On the other hand, he does retain his Forest Hills base, the district will give him increased recognition in other boroughs if he wants to run for mayor again and Republicans aren’t about to start winning districts that are only 53% white and likely to be majority-minority by 2020.

NY-08 (purple): Jerrold Nadler – D

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
705168	236867	50065	82	17	74	26	61	11	8	17

I’d argue this is a substantial improvement on the current 8th in terms of logical lines, but it isn’t compact by any means. From Nadler’s home on the Upper West Side, it snakes down the west side of Manhattan and crosses the East River over the Brooklyn Bridge.

Once in Brooklyn, it takes in Downtown before marching further south into Prospect Park. By this point it’s ridiculously Democratic, such that it absorbs the majority of Borough Park and barely takes a hit for it. At 82% Obama, it’s actually one of the biggest improvements of any district. Not that Nadler needs it, of course.

NY-07 (light grey): Joe Crowley – D

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
704836	161725	36669	81	18	79	20	33	26	8	28

Crowley may be the Queens Democratic chair, but his new district is much more Bronx-based. He keeps Queens’ northern shore, taking in Ravenswood, Astoria, Flushing, College Point and Beechurst. He may even keep his home in Woodside, but if not the lines could be changed easily enough.

Most of his territory is in the Bronx, however. In addition to Riker’s Island, his district crosses the Whitestone Bridge to take in Schuylerville, Pelham Park, Parkchester, Co-op City and the rest of the East Bronx.

The district remains majority-minority and becomes rather more so. Whilst white are the largest group, they’re only 33%, and blacks and Hispanics are almost at parity. If Crowley retires, it’s anybody’s guess who replaces him. My money’s on DavidNYC, for the record.

NY-06 (teal): Gregory Meeks

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
697850	202891	68157	75	25	89	11	31	50	4	10

I tried the tactic of putting Oyster Bay in this district, but couldn’t make any maps I liked with it. Instead I settled for this more compact district, which is nevertheless a deliberate attempt to make irrelevant the votes of LI Republicans. Jamaica and Far Rockaway form the core of this district, and about 450000 of the district’s inhabitants are 65% black or so.

The other 250000 are mostly LI Republicans. Whilst I took in some black areas just outside the city lines, mostly I took Republican leaning areas like East Rockaway, Malverne and Franklin Square. Pockets of Democratic strength in south-west Nassau, most notable Lynbrooke, were excised.

Note that I may have described these areas wrongly, as I’m doing this from Google maps. Either way, we have a 50.2% black district that voted 75-25 for Obama. That means a lot of Republicans now have their votes wasted

NY-05 (child’s paint yellow):

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
694477	123549	81485	60	39	63	36	54	4	23	17

I’ve been much less ambitious in Long Island than some other entries. This is largely because I didn’t want to create fajita strips. I didn’t succeed entirely, but this is a district Ackerman would recognise, whereas other entires have reconfigured NY-05 much more.

The Nassau section is only very slightly changed. Most of the changes have been in Queens. It still includes neighbourhoods like Douglaston and Auburndale, but it’s been expanded further west, up to the Brooklyn border. By skating through Rego Park I drew Ridgewood and the Middle Village into the district.

In general, however, I was surprised how similar the lines were, as the 5th was one of the last districts I drew. The major change is a fairly hefty drop in the Hispanic percentage. If the district goes majority-minority, Ackerman’s replacement is more likely to be Asian than Puerto Rican.

NY-04 (red): Caroline McCarthy

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
696289	163148	111809	59	40	58	41	59	10	13	14

NY-04 is much more changed than NY-05, due to the need to remove Peter King. This is an obviously gerrymandered district, stretching well into NYC and being only one voting district wide at two separate points. On the other hand, it’s still 59% Obama, so I’m willing to forgive its aesthetic unpleasantness.

This is no longer a compact Nassau County district. In the city, it goes as far as Kew Gardens and if it doesn’t stray into Jamaica too many times, that’s only because I had to keep NY-06 black-majority.

Outside the city, it’s a mess of tendrils. It snakes its way through North Hempstead (and hopefully includes McCarthy’s home, although I won’t absolutely vouch for that, then sends one tentacle into Hempstead township and some form of stubby proto-foot into Oyster Bay.

The Hempstead one hoovers up the more Democratic portions that NY-06 – places like Lynbrooke, Freeport, South Hempstead and Uniondale. The Oyster bay stump appears to take in Levitttown, Hicksville and Farmingdale, but I could easily be wrong. It certainly takes in bits of Massapequa. This stump isn’t as Democratic as the tendril, since it isn’t designed to boost McCarthy’s numbers. It’s designed to split King’s base.

NY-03 (purple): Peter King – R

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
695671	174340	139832	55	44	47	52	73	12	3	10

This is not an unwinnable district for a Republican, but it’s not a nice one. Obama improves eight points to 55%. I wouldn’t expect King to lose by 30 points. But I would expect him to lose, especially against a strong candidate like Suozzi or Meijas, or to run statewide or retire instead.

On the North Shore, the district takes in Glen Cove and the rest of northern Oyster Bay. From there it heads south, narrowing near Plainview as 4th and 2nd both intrude upon it and continuing towards the South Shore.

Once it gets there, it diverges. One side of it goes to Long Beach, largely staying close to the coast but sending up a hook towards Bellmore. On the other side, it moves in to Suffolk, where it mostly hugs the coast through Babylon.

It doesn’t look that different. But it does look like it’ll give King headaches.

NY-02 (dark green): Steve Israel – D

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
694752	162562	141316	53	46	56	43	75	8	3	13

I’m not entirely happy with Long Island. I’m only submitting now because the deadline is fast approaching. And I do think that if this map has a weakness, it’s NY-02.

Not that Steve Israel is doomed. Obama still got 53% here and Israel is an entrenched incumbent whose district isn’t changed overwhelmingly. But if Long Island does become redder, he could face some tougher re-election efforts.

In Nassau, Israel keeps Plainview and the lines are mostly just neatened. In Suffolk, he takes all of Huntington and heads south-west towards Brentwood and Islip.

And if that was all he did, he’d be fine. The problem is he also takes Smithtown, and that’s a bit of an anvil for him.

Then again, he’s a Blue Dog with no trouble raising cash. Smithtown hampers him, but it shouldn’t cripple him.

NY-01 (blue): Tim Bishop – D

Population	Obama	McCain	Obama %	McCain %	Old Obama %	Old McCain %	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
701716	162574	145024	53	47	52	48	84	4	2	8

Bishop’s district isn’t wildly different. It’s the same eastern Suffolk district with the same thin Democratic margins. In the north he drops Smithtown and in the south he gains some of Islip, but I didn’t make huge changes.

Because of this, the Democratic margin doesn’t change much. It improves from 52% Obama to 53%, but mostly I’m relying on Bishop’s continued good relations with his constituents.

If he’s caught up in a scandal, we’ve likely lost the district and if he retires it’ll be a close race. Otherwise, I’d say he’ll probably keep this seat without too much trouble.

This is the fifth part of an analysis of the swing state Pennsylvania. It focuses on the traditionally Republican region between the Democratic strongholds in the southeast and southwest. The last part can be found here.

Pennsyltucky

Outside the Pittsburgh and the Philadelphia metropolis, Pennsylvania is a very different place. Political analysts often label this area “the T,” while others call it Pennsyltucky.

Popular culture mythologizes Pennsyltucky as red-neck capital – a rural region dominated by NASCAR-loving red-necks. Politically, James Carville compared Pennsyltucky to Alabama without the blacks.

In fact, this stereotype is inaccurate on two accounts. Firstly, Pennsyltucky contains far more than so-called rural red-necks; most of its counties are fairly populated (they are far more densely peopled than, say, rural Arkansas). Secondly, many of these supposedly NASCAR-loving red-necks also belong to the local union and vote Democratic on economic issues. The majority may support Republicans, but that majority certainly is below the 88% of Alabama whites that voted for John McCain.

Nevertheless, the “T” does constitute the Republican base in Pennsylvania. Former president George W. Bush pulled 48.42% of the state’s vote in 2004, and he had to get those votes somewhere.

More below.

Pennsylvania’s 2006 Senate election provides a geographic illustration of this base. In that election, former Senator Rick Santorum lost by a landslide 17.36% margin; only the reddest counties supported him:

Although they cover a lot of land, not all these counties are rural enclaves of Pennsyltucky (if they were all rural, Senator John Kerry would have won by double-digits in the state). In fact, fast-growing exurbs constitute a substantial source of Republican votes. Located east of the Philadelphia metropolis, these are somewhat wealthy and mostly white. They include Lancaster County (where Bush won 65.80% of the vote) and York County (where he won 63.74%); the former president came out of these two counties with a 121,832 margin, enough to offset Pittsburgh, Erie, and Scranton.

Erie and Scranton both constitute solidly blue areas belonging to “the T.” They give lie to the myth that all Pennsyltucky votes loyally Republican. Like the southwest, Erie and Scranton contain a number of working-class Democrats; unlike the southwest, however, cultural appeals have not swayed these folk into voting Republican.

Indeed, Democrats do respectably in many parts of Pennsyltucky. Here is President Barack Obama’s performance:

Mr. Obama did not just win Erie and Scranton; he took several other counties and ran closely elsewhere. These included Centre County, home to Pennsylvania State University, and Dauphin County, which has a relatively high black population. All the Lehigh Valley – somewhat an extension of Philadelphia’s suburbs – voted for the president. More surprisingly, Obama ran very closely in several rural, lily-white regions of the T; one such county (Elk) even gave the president a 4% margin of victory.

Obama was not the only Democrat to do well in parts of Pennsyltucky. Here is how former president Bill Clinton performed:

Mr. Clinton, of course, was a fellow with immense appeal to so-called “red-necks.” Since his time, much of Pennsyltucky has moved to the right. Yet not all of it is deep-red: while some counties gave Mr. McCain more than 70% of the vote, others – demographically identical – gave him barely more than 50%. These are substantial and curious variations.

While Pennsyltucky as a whole votes strongly Republican, it is wrong to generalize the area. Its most populous regions – the exurbs – constitute a vital part of the Republican coalition, while some rural counties have a fairly weak Republican habit. Finally, a number of places dependent upon industry routinely support Democrats. To stereotype the “T” as a composed solely of Republican-voting red-necks would do injustice to the region’s complexities.

(Note: All statistics come from http://uselectionatlas.org/ . Some pictures modified from the NYT.)

–Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (1/7-9, likely voters, no trendlines):

Martha Coakley (D): 47

Scott Brown (R): 48

Undecided: 6

(MoE: ±3.6%)

Some findings from Tom Jensen:

• As was the case in the Gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia last year, it looks like the electorate in Massachusetts will be considerably more conservative than the one that showed up in 2008. Obama took the state by 26 points then, but those planning to vote next week only report having voted for him by 16.

• Republicans are considerably more enthusiastic about turning out to vote than Democrats are. 66% of GOP voters say they are ‘very excited’ about casting their votes, while only 48% of Democrats express that sentiment- and that’s among the Democrats who are planning to vote in contrast to the many who are apparently not planning to do so at this point.

• Brown has eye popping numbers with independents, sporting a 70/16 favorability rating with them and holding a 63-31 lead in the horse race with Coakley. Health care may be hurting Democratic fortunes with that group, as only 27% of independents express support for Obama’s plan with 59% opposed.

Tom also offers some thoughts on how he thinks Coakley can win, and says that PPP will be back in the field next weekend. Taegan Goddard also has this update:

Meanwhile, polls from the Boston Globe and Boston Herald should be released in the morning.

A source tells Jim Geraghty that the Globe poll finds Coakley ahead by 15 points and the Herald poll finds her ahead by seven points — but just one point among likely voters.

Mark Blumenthal also promised that Pollster would put up a trend chart once it has a fifth poll of this race (PPP makes five).

UPDATE: The Boston Globe’s poll is out. As usual, it was conducted by UNH, a pollster whose methodologies I mistrust and whom we usually relegate to the digest – indeed, Dean Barker of the indispensible Blue Hampshire has rightly eviscerated UNH director Andy Smith for inhabiting “Cloud Hampshire.” I’m not sure their Massachusetts results are any better, but anyhow, here goes:

UNH (1/2-6, likely voters incl. leaners, no trendlines):

Martha Coakley (D): 53

Scott Brown (R): 36

Undecided/Other: 11

(MoE: ±4.2%)

I’m not going to cherrypick – I don’t like UNH when they’ve got bad news for Dems, so I’m not going to relax just because this survey happens to show good news for Dems. In fact, the full polling memo hasn’t been published yet (though I expect it will appear here if it does go online), so there’s no way to even know what assumptions Andy Smith is making. (UPDATE: The memo is now available here.)

From the Allentown Morning Call:

Former Bucks County Republican Congressman Mike Fitzpatrick plans to announce before the end of the month his intention to reclaim the 8th district seat that he narrowly lost in 2006 to Democrat Patrick Murphy, a source close to the local Republican party confirmed.

Fitzpatrick, who was diagnosed with colon cancer in June 2008, has reportedly been consulting with doctors about running for re-election this year.

“His health is good and his passion is high and he’s ready to reclaim his seat,” the source said Friday.

Murphy had managed to escape a serious challenge so far — one of the rare Democrats in a competitive district to do so — but Fitzpatrick is probably about as strong a candidate as Republicans can hope to run here. Despite the district’s small Democratic lean (Obama won this district by nine points, up from John Kerry’s 3% win in 2004), this will be a non-trivial race.

RaceTracker Wiki: PA-08

The Swing State Project recently announced changes to ten race ratings. Since then, we’ve added three more races to the list (MA-Sen, IL-Gov & OH-Gov). Our writeups for all of these are below. You can find our complete ratings here: Sen | Gov.

Senate races:

AR-Sen (Lincoln): Lean D to Tossup

With Chris Dodd out of the picture, conventional wisdom is starting to coalesce around Blanche Lincoln as the Democrats’ most vulnerable Senate incumbent. She has a few things still in her favor: a sizable warchest, a 2010 ballot shared with popular Dem governor Mike Beebe, and most importantly, no top-tier opponents – just a grab-bag of Republican odds and ends in a state with little GOP bench (with state Sen. Gilbert Baker the main contender).

However, the decline in Democratic fortunes over the last few years was perhaps most precipitous of all states in Arkansas, and some of that has rubbed off on Lincoln. She’s trailing even her weaker Republican opponents according to Rasmussen, while other pollsters find the Lincoln/Baker matchup a dead heat. Her conservative positioning on health care has fizzled, having served only to enrage her base while winning her no new fans on the righ. Lincoln, who may also face a primary challenge from Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, has little time left to right her capsizing ship. (C)

AZ-Sen (McCain): Safe R to RTW

Former Rep. J. D. Hayworth has put this once-sleepy race on the map. Hayworth, a bull-headed conservative, has been making noises about challenging John McCain in the Republican primary, recently saying that he’s “testing the waters” for a potential bid. Even though the allegedly Mavericky McCain pretty much dropped all pretense of having anything in common with Democrats once he began his presidential run, somehow he’s still mistrusted by the right. When the tribe speaks, it may well be McCain who gets voted off the island.

Sadly, Democrats don’t really have anyone who could capitalize on a potential Hayworth coup. The only announced candidate is one Rudy Garcia, former mayor of the town of Bell Gardens (pop. 45,000). Not so helpfully, Bell Gardens is in California. This race seems ripe for a young up-and-comer looking to raise his or her profile – no one will blame you for losing to John McCain, and hey, you might get a chance to take on Hayworth instead. Tucson City Councilman Rodney Glassman, who has formed an exploratory committee, might fit the bill. It’ll be a while yet before we know if Team Blue can make any waves here, though. (D)

CO-Sen (Bennet): Lean D to Tossup

Michael Bennet, the former Denver schools superintendent appointed to fill the vacant Senate seat, has had a year to introduce himself to his constituents and still doesn’t seem to have made much of an impression. Bennet may be well-connected and a monster fundraiser, but he seems a little short on charisma and retail politicking talent. For a while this year, he seemed safe simply by virtue of having third-tier opposition, but with the entry of former Republican Lt. Governor Jane Norton this summer, he’s facing a competitive race. And things are complicated by a primary challenge from former state House speaker Andrew Romanoff, although Romanoff has seemed lately to struggle to get any traction (and may even change over to the now-open gubernatorial race).

It’s hard to get a handle on this contest, as only Rasmussen has been polling it lately. They’ve been finding leads over both Bennet and Romanoff for Norton and some of the Republicans’ lesser lights as well. The Democrats’ decline in Colorado this year has been across the boards (affecting Obama approvals and Gov. Bill Ritter), and that seems to be hampering the blank-slate-ish Bennet as well. One item in Bennet’s favor, though, is that the withdrawal of the unpopular Ritter and a potential upgrade to the better-liked John Hickenlooper may help pull him across the finish line in November. (C)

IA-Sen (Grassley): RTW to Likely R

Chuck Grassley is a seemingly entrenched, allegedly sometimes “moderate” Republican, sitting on a decent ($4.4 mil) pile of cash in a state which has elected him five times – in other words, a tough nut to crack. Dems did a good job landing a very credible candidate, though – former gubernatorial candidate and super-lawyer Roxanne Conlin. Conlin is personally wealthy and, as one-time president of the Association of Trial Lawyers of America, she ought to have good connections to other well-to-do attorneys. We’ll be watching her fourth-quarter fundraising reports very closely.

Meanwhile, Grassley’s approval ratings – which typically were sky-high for most of his career – have slipped in recent months. He’s still the heavy favorite here, and Conlin has a lot of work to do. But this race is now officially on the map. (D)

IL-Sen (Open): Lean D to Tossup

Democratic front-runner Alexi Giannoulias’s baggage is well-known at this point, so there’s no need for us to rehash his troubles here. Suffice it to say we’re concerned that the battle-hardened GOP Rep. Mark Kirk can exploit these weaknesses in a general election. Democratic internal polling (from primary opponent David Hoffman and from Giannoulias’ own pollster) has placed Giannoulias either down or up on Kirk by a scant three points. This suggests to us that Giannoulias can’t count on the usual generous margin of error that this Dem-leaning state has given to the likes of Rod Blagojevich in the past.

It’s still possible that Hoffman or Cheryle Jackson could win the Democratic nomination, but the primary is less than a month away, and an upset seems unlikely. At the same time, any chance that teabagger Patrick Hughes might ding up Kirk are mostly evaporating, given the short time left. Still, the general election is a long ways off, and a well-disciplined campaign could dispel our doubts. But for now, it’s too difficult to give the Democratic field the edge. (J)

MA-Sen (Open): Safe D to Lean D

Democrats shouldn’t have to be at all worried about Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat – and yet, with the special election just a week away, here we are. The DSCC is sending out a fundraising email on behalf of Martha Coakley. Meanwhile, big gun Bill Clinton will campaign with Coakley next week. And there’s probably more to come.

But why? A Rasmussen poll showed a nine-point race between Coakley and GOPer Scott Brown, while Tom Jensen at PPP is about to release a survey he’s touted as showing a “losable” race for Team Blue. If internal polls were showing a prettier picture, we’d be seeing them. While it’s hard to believe things have come to this in the state of Massachusetts, many have faulted a lackluster Democratic campaign and general Democratic complacency – the sorts of things we saw a bunch of in 2009. At least there finally seems to be a sense of urgency about this race, though let’s hope it’s not too little, too late. (D)

PA-Sen (Specter): Lean D to Tossup

Some pretty credible polling has shown Democrats Arlen Specter and Joe Sestak in a dogfight against Republican Pat Toomey. After Specter switched, it was difficult to fathom  a Toomey win. But as is the case in most states, the underlying environment has become a lot less favorable for Democrats since last April, and Toomey’s taken advantage of the opportunity to keep his head down, stockpile arms, and refrain from saying anything insane. Indeed, Toomey’s lack of a primary challenged has allowed him to practice his crossover pitches to Democrats and independents (e.g. endorsing Sonia Sotomayor). After the Democrats settle their contentious primary, Toomey will need to be held to account, but that will be an expensive and surprisingly arduous task. (J)

TX-Sen (Hutchison): Likely R to RTW

Kay Bailey Hutchison has changed her mind about resigning her Senate seat a thousand times, and honestly, who the hell knows what she’s going to do at this point. One report says she’ll only step down if she beats Gov. Rick Perry in the GOP gubernatorial primary; another says she’ll bail no matter what happens. And even if she does win the Republican nod, she may want to hold on to her current job just a bit longer, given that she’d face a stiff Democratic challenge in November from Houston mayor Bill White. Since this Class I seat ordinarily wouldn’t be up again until 2012, we’re downgrading this contest to Race to Watch status until KBH actually makes a decision. (D)

Gubernatorial races:

IL-Gov (Quinn): RTW to Likely D

Republicans succeeded in bumping this race up a notch with the recruitment of former state AG Jim Ryan, who was last seen losing this race to Rod Blagojevich by a 52-45 spread in 2002. Ryan is a credible contender, and incumbent Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn is currently on the receiving end of hard hits from his primary opponent, state Comptroller Dan Hynes. There’s still plenty of time for this race to evolve, and if Illinois winds up like many of its Rust Belt brethren, this race will only get more competitive for the Democrats, not less so. But in the meantime, we’re starting off with a rating of Likely D. (J)

KS-Gov (Open): Likely R to Safe R

In November, the Dems finally landed a plausible candidate in an admittedly extremely uphill race, retired pharmaceutical executive Tom Wiggans. Unfortunately, just a month later, he dropped out. Dems are now trying to find a replacement, but it won’t be easy. Gov. Mark Parkinson (who filled Kathleen Sebelius’s spot when she joined the Obama administration) was asked if he’d reconsider his earlier decision not to run; the good news is that he didn’t offer a flat-out rejection, and he’d almost certainly be our strongest candidate. But unless and until he or someone else credible bites the bullet, this race is now Safe Republican. (D)

OH-Gov (Open): Lean D to Tossup

Gov. Ted Strickland was riding a wave of popularity for most of his first term, but he’s fallen victim to the same plague that’s afflicted many other Rust Belt governors. His approvals have dwindled alongside his state’s economy, particularly hard-hit by the decline in the manufacturing sector – and his fate is probably linked with how well the jobs market improves in the next year.

Strickland is facing off against ex-Rep. John Kasich, whose supply-side, free-trading economic conservatism doesn’t initially seem a good fit for blue-collar Ohio. Perhaps Strickland can regain the upper hand if he’s able to highlight Kasich’s relationship to those who helped cause the economic woes buffeting Ohio. But in the meantime, Kasich, functioning as something of a Generic R, is currently leading Strickland according to Rasmussen and polling close to him according to other pollsters. (C)

OR-Gov (Open): Lean D to Likely D

Here’s one of the few moves in the Democrats’ favor, and it has less to do with the national or even state atmosphere as it does with a complete recruiting failure on the Republicans’ part. Rep. Greg Walden was about the only Republican with a shot at making this a truly competitive race, and he said no thanks. Likable young state Sen. Jason Atkinson wouldn’t have likely won, but could have at least made it a spirited, high-energy race – but he, too, said no. That left the Republicans with an almost comedic assortment of spare parts: hopelessly moderate former Treasurer candidate Allen Alley, long-forgotten ex-state Sen. John Lim, and anti-tax initiative huckster Bill Sizemore, who’s likelier to be in prison come 2011 than in the governor’s mansion. Former Portland Trail Blazer Chris Dudley seems left as the de facto frontrunner by virtue of his name recognition, personal pocketbook, and pleasant persona, but even party faithful seem flummoxed by his utter lack of substance so far.

The Democrats are facing a primary between two of their top statewide figures, ex-Governor John Kitzhaber and ex-SoS Bill Bradbury (with the outside possibility that populist Rep. Peter DeFazio may still join them). While it’s hard to imagine a primary between those two amiable guys turning rancorous, even a depleted and wounded primary victor would still have to be heavily favored against whatever the GOP offers up. (C)

TX-Gov (Perry): RTW to Likely R

Despite facing a challenging environment elsewhere in the country, Democrats appear to have their best shot at taking back the governor’s office in Texas in over a decade. Why? Because Team Blue has landed a legitimate top-flight candidate in outgoing Houston Mayor Bill White. White has broad appeal in metro Houston, which will be a big asset for Democrats, especially if GOP Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison’s primary challenge against incumbent Rick Perry results in serious intra-party damage for the Republicans.

Perry, who has to be considered the primary favorite at this point, is coming off an underwhelming 39% victory in 2006, making him about as appealing a target for Democrats as one can reasonably hope for. In truth, a Perry vs. White general election match-up is probably a shade better for Dems than “Likely R”, but we’re going to err on the side of caution for the time being. In terms of money raised, GOTV, polling, and messaging, White has a lot to prove before we can talk about Texas Democrats snapping their painfully long statewide losing skid. (J)

Governor Chet Culver’s re-election campaign announced yesterday that Abby Curran has been hired as campaign manager. She replaces Andrew Roos, who departed in November.

Curran first worked in Iowa in 2003 and 2004, as a field organizer for Dick Gephardt in the Dubuque area. In 2006, she managed Baron Hill’s successful campaign in Indiana’s Republican-leaning ninth Congressional district. In 2007, she was deputy field director for John Edwards’ Iowa caucus campaign. In 2008, she managed the campaign of Linda Stender, who fell short in New Jersey’s Republican-leaning seventh Congressional district.

Jesse Harris remains deputy manager for the Culver-Judge campaign, and the Des Moines Register reported some other encouraging news: “Culver retains as his general campaign consultant Teresa Vilmain, a Cedar Falls native and veteran Democratic organizer whose Iowa experience dates back 30 years.”  

Meanwhile, the Iowa Democratic Party launched a new web video yesterday on the coming “showdown” of Terry vs. Terry:

Former Governor Branstad’s record doesn’t square with his campaign rhetoric in many respects. So far he has either glossed over the discrepancies or claimed to have learned from his mistakes. Republican primary voters may accept that explanation, but Branstad’s accountability problem is sure to be an issue this fall if he wins the GOP nomination.

Earlier this week, a Republican state representative and supporter of Bob Vander Plaats for governor vowed never to vote for Branstad under any circumstances.

Public Policy Polling (1/4-5, likely voters):

Susan Bysiewicz (D): 50

Michael Fidele (R): 25

Undecided: 25

Susan Bysiewicz (D): 48

Tom Foley (R): 26

Undecided: 27

Ned Lamont (D): 40

Michael Fidele (R): 30

Undecided: 29

Ned Lamont (D): 40

Tom Foley (R): 29

Undecided: 30

Dan Malloy (D): 37

Michael Fidele (R): 26

Undecided: 36

Dan Malloy (D): 37

Tom Foley (R): 27

Undecided: 36

(MoE: ±4.5%)

I think you’d be forgiven if you’ve forgotten who all these players are, so let’s give you a scorecard:

Susan Bysiewicz: CT Secretary of State (1998-)

Dan Malloy: Mayor of Stamford (1995-)

Ned Lamont: Businessman, ’06 Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate

Tom Foley: Businessman, U.S. Ambassador to Ireland (2006-2009)

Michael Fedele: State Representative (1992-2002), Lt. Governor (2007-)

Republicans are hampered by extremely low name recognition here, but even Bysiewicz has room to grow (45% are “not sure” whether or not they approve of her). The candidate who arouses the most opinions, one way or the other, is Ned Lamont — but his favorables are at 29-28, well below Bysiewicz’s 39-16 spread. Ned Lamont closed his ’06 campaign with some damaged favorables (29-36, with another 21% having “mixed” feelings, according to a Quinnipiac poll from late October of that year), so he’d have a bit of work to do in building a more appealing image for himself.

Still, though, it’s hard not to like these numbers.

RaceTracker Wiki: CT-Gov

• Redistricting contest: Attention all redistricting nerds! Our New York redistricting contest deadline is Sunday, midnight Eastern time, so get your maps done. Don’t forget that people need to email their .DRF.XML files to jeffmd at swingstateproject dot com.

• AR-Sen, MO-Sen: Here’s an interesting alliance between two prominent female Senate candidates, one perhaps our most vulnerable incumbent and the other our likeliest pickup. Blanche Lincoln and Robin Carnahan have formed a joint fundraising committee, the Missouri Arkansas Victory Fund.

• CT-Sen: I had almost forgotten about Merrick Alpert, a young entrepreneur who’d been trying to carve out some space for himself in the Democratic primary against Chris Dodd as the “clean” outsider (and had been polling in the low double digits in primary polls, by virtue of his non-Dodd-ness). With the departure of Dodd and his replacement with the squeaky-clean Richard Blumenthal, it looks like Alpert’s going to need to do some message retooling. At any rate, Alpert says he’s sticking around in the race no matter what.

• DE-Sen: A politician voting against something, and then take credit for its benefits after it passes anyway? Why, I’m sure that’s never happened before. Still, it’s not the kind of thing you might expect Rep. Mike Castle to do… but he’s doing it anyway, touting $5 million in aid to the Delaware state government that came from the stimulus package he voted against.

• FL-Sen: I’m not sure if Charlie Crist actually thinks this’ll work; it seems like a transparent-enough ploy that the teabaggers will see through it like Grandma’s underpants. At any rate, he’s spinning to the paranoid right as quickly as the newly-rabid John McCain, decrying “Obamacare secrecy” in HCR negotiations, and also engaging in a little revisionist history about his stance on abortion.

• MA-Sen: Everyone’s getting Twitter-pated about PPP’s early teasings of its poll of this race, which they say is “loseable” for the Democrats; the actual numbers should be out this weekend. Still, you’d think that if there were an actual fire going on here, you’d see the national committees getting involved, and they aren’t (yet)… although the RNC has been sending around an e-mail asking for money on state Sen. Scott Brown’s behalf. Meanwhile, Martha Coakley has a big fundraiser scheduled for next Tuesday in DC (with all the state’s Congressional delegation and other moneybags luminaries like the Podestas) — although, given how gigantic a cash advantage she already has for blanketing the airwaves, it seems like that day might be better spent actually working on the ground than heading to Washington.

• ND-Sen: It turns out R2K had a perfectly good poll of North Dakota in the field on Tuesday, which got spoiled when Byron Dorgan suddenly retired. Still, it sheds some light on Dorgan’s retirement decision, as the final result is Hoeven 54, Dorgan 37 (which may be skewed toward Hoeven because they kept asking polling after Dorgan’s announcement, but Dorgan was still losing before the announcement too). That’s despite Dorgan’s sky-high approvals of 63%… just what happens when the state’s natural lean is against you, and someone even more popular than you comes along (just ask Lincoln Chafee). Remember that R2K found a 57-35 lead for Dorgan back in February over Hoeven; the flip was driven in large part by independents, who moved decisively from Dorgan to Hoeven over the year. One other Democratic name is getting floated as a potential Dorgan successor: former Dorgan aide and former state Senator Kristin Hedger.

• NY-Sen-B: Lots of New York’s power players are trying to talk Harold Ford Jr. down from the ledge regarding his potential primary challenge to Kirsten Gillibrand, starting with Gillibrand’s mentor Charles Schumer. Rep. Jerry Nadler, who came around late to supporting Gillibrand but is firmly in her column now, also joined in the chorus telling Ford (who’s been huddling with advisors from Michael Bloomberg’s coterie) to back off. The campaign against Ford almost seems to write itself, starting with his pro-life proclamations and the fact that he’s been registered to vote in New York for only six weeks. That’s only the tip of the iceberg, though; Campaign Diaries has the definitive takedown of his record.

• NV-Sen: Some more intraparty sniping in Nevada, where Rep. Dean Heller is still complaining that John Ensign continues to tarnish the GOP’s brand in the state, which could hurt its chances in the Senate and Governor’s races in 2010. Heller said he wouldn’t call for Ensign to resign, “at least not on this show.”

• PA-Sen: Former Commonwealth Court judge Doris Smith-Ribner ended her longshot bid in the Democratic primary in the Senate race, having made no fundraising progress. She made so little impact I don’t see this changing much of anything, although maybe it helps Rep. Joe Sestak a bit via less splitting of the anti-Arlen Specter vote. She’s switching over to the Lt. Governor’s race, although she faces a longshot bid there too for the Dem nod against former Philadelphia controller Jonathan Saidel.

• UT-Sen: Maybe yesterday’s news that Jason Chaffetz wouldn’t challenge him was good news for Bob Bennett, but things aren’t getting any better for Team Bob. He’s now officially a target of the Club for Growth, unhappy with his occasionally moments of across-the-aisle comity. The CfG doesn’t have a preferred horse in the race, yet, as they seem torn between Mike Lee, Tim Bridgewater, and Cherilyn Eagar; for now, they’re calling all three of them “superior” to Bennett.

• NM-Gov: The New Mexico GOP has only a number of second-stringers running for Governor (with Dona Ana County DA Susana Martinez maybe the most interesting), so they still seem to be casting about. They’ve gotten a nibble from a local attorney with no electoral experience but a prominent family name: Pete Domenici Jr.

• SD-Gov: One more Republican got into the field in the South Dakota gubernatorial race, bringing the total to five. State Sen. Gordon Howie seems to be laying claim to the teabaggers’ mantle in the race, via his presidency of the Tea Party-linked Citizens for Liberty. (I’d rather see him run for the House, where he could someday form the Guys Whose Names Seem To Be Out Of Order Caucus, along with Rodney Tom and Nickie Monica.)

• TX-Gov, TX-Sen: Kay Bailey Hutchison’s gubernatorial run has been giving John Cornyn nonstop heartburn since he took over the NRSC, and now he seems to be strategically leaking that he’d prefer that she drop her gubernatorial bid altogether (despite the primary being only two months away) to avoid the prospect of an expensive special election. Note to Cornyn: she’ll lose the gubernatorial primary anyway, and you’ll have her back shortly. While smart Texans (see White, Bill) seem to be backing away from the Senate-Race-that-probably-won’t-exist, one more Republican is floating his name for the hypothetical race. And it’s a guy I didn’t know even had any political inclinations: ESPN talking head Craig James.

• UT-Gov: Democrats got a good candidate to run in the 2010 gubernatorial special election: Salt Lake County mayor Peter Corroon confirmed that he’ll run. Corroon still faces a steep uphill fight, given the state’s crimson hue, but Dems have a better opening than usual, given the muddled Republican field in view of possible convention and/or primary challenges to appointed Gov. Gary Herbert.

• CA-19: Neighboring Representatives are taking sides in the Republican primary in the open seat race in the 19th. Kevin McCarthy, who leads NRCC recruitment efforts, is sticking with his initial endorsement of state Sen. Jeff Denham despite ex-Rep. Richard Pombo’s entry to the race (although he confesses that he “likes” Pombo too), while Devin Nunes has endorsed his ex-colleague Pombo. Denham also benefits from endorsements from many of the other state GOP House members (Dreier, Royce, Campbell, Issa, and Herger), although Duncan Hunter Jr. switched to “neutral” from Denham after Pombo’s entry.

• IN-09: It’s on… for the fifth freakin’ time. Ex-Rep. Mike Sodrel is launching another run against Democratic Rep. Baron Hill. (Hill has a 3-1 win record in their meetings so far.) The trouble is, unlike previous tries, Sodrel will have to get through a primary this time; attorney Todd Young has already raised substantial money and has many establishment endorsements (including some statewide officials). With Sodrel increasingly buddying up to the teabaggers, this looks like it has the potential to turn into one more skirmish in the establishment/movement battle.

• ND-AL: Republicans suddenly seem more interested in taking on the usually untouchable Democratic Rep. Earl Pomeroy, no doubt heartened by the knowledge that they’d be running downticket from John Hoeven in the Senate race and might benefit from coattails. State Rep. Rick Berg is sounding the loudest, although former Insurance Comm. Jim Poolman also is expressing interest. Public Service Commission member Kevin Cramer (who’s lost twice to Pomeroy before) was scoping out a run even before Byron Dorgan’s retirement.

• NH-02: With a crowd already formed in the NH-02 Democratic primary, Executive Councilor Debora Pignatelli declined to run. She didn’t endorse attorney Ann McLane Kuster, state Rep. John DeJoie, or Katrina Swett (who hasn’t formally declared yet), though.

• PA-04: There are rumors of a potential primary challenge from the left to Rep. Jason Altmire (despite the R+6 character of his suburban Pittsburgh district). Businesswoman Georgia Berner — who lost the 2006 primary to Altmire, who went on to defeat GOP Rep. Melissa Hart in the general — is dissatisfied with Altmire’s Blue Doggish record and is considering a rematch.

• VA-05: Some more delicious cat fud in the 5th, where state Sen. Robert Hurt, the Republican establishment’s pick in the race, has told the teabaggers to get bent. He’ll be skipping two debates sponsored by Tea Party organizations (although he cites the legislative calendar as the reasons for not showing up).

• Polltopia: Nate Silver has a very interesting deconstruction of Rasmussen, one of the best things I’ve seen written about them yet. He looks at why they keep finding right-wing insurgent candidates (Marco Rubio, Rand Paul) overperforming against Democratic candidates compared to Republican establishment rivals, contrary to other pollsters. What he sees is that between their exclusionary likely voter screen and their one-day polling periods (with no callbacks), they’re disproportionately reaching the most informed, motivated, and ideologically-driven voters.

America’s favorite pollster, Scott Rasmussen, has some nice news for Republicans (1/6, likely voters, 9/30 in parens):

Jack Conway (D): 35 (40)

Trey Grayson (R): 45 (40)

Undecided: 12 (17)

Jack Conway (D): 38 (42)

Rand Paul (R): 46 (38)

Undecided: 12 (15)

Dan Mongiardo (D): 37 (37)

Trey Grayson (R): 44 (44)

Undecided: 14

Dan Mongiardo (D): 35 (38)

Rand Paul (R): 49 (42)

Undecided: 11 (13)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

That’s some pretty nasty stuff, and I’m sure the Paulistas are dancing on the clouds right now. Despite his surprising strength in the general election match-ups, I still hold that the best result for Democrats would be a Rand Paul nomination. That’s not to say that Paul could be easily beaten, but his freak-wing politics are more vulnerable upon closer examination. For instance: Is Rand Paul a 9/11 Truther? The answer isn’t exactly clear.

RaceTracker Wiki: KY-Sen