Mason-Dixon for the Las Vegas Review-Journal (1/5-7, likely voters, 11/30-12/2 in parens):

Harry Reid (D-inc): 41 (42)

Danny Tarkanian (R): 49 (48)

Undecided: 10 (10)

Harry Reid (D-inc): 40 (41)

Sue Lowden (R): 50 (51)

Undecided: 10 (8)

Harry Reid (D-inc): 40 (NA)

Sharron Angle (R): 45 (NA)

Undecided: 15 (NA)

(MoE: ±4%)

Danny Tarkanian (R): 28 (24)

Sue Lowden (R): 26 (25)

Sharron Angle (R): 14 (13)

Mark Amodei (R): 1 (1)

Bill Parson (R): 0 (1)

Robin Titus (R): 0 (1)

Mike Wiley (R): 0 (1)

John Chachas (R): 0 (1)

Undecided: 32 (33)

(MoE: ±6%)

Purely numerically, things haven’t changed much in the Nevada Senate race, with only minor fluctuations in the general and primary (although that fluctuation does move Danny Tarkanian ahead of Sue Lowden). A new feature is a matchup between Harry Reid and right-wing ex-Assemblywoman Sharron Angle; even that turns up as a loss for Reid, although not by as big a margin.

These numbers, however, predate Harry Reid’s latest woes. The “stepping in it” of the title, of course, refers to allegations in the new book Game Change that Reid observed several years ago, in his best attempts to sound like a 19th-century linguistics professor, that Barack Obama lacked a “Negro dialect.” It looks like Reid may weather this particular storm — for instance, John Cornyn said that while he’d like Reid to resign, he doesn’t actually expect him to do so — but it can’t help when you’re in a difficult re-election fight if you have to put out fires like this and belabor talking points that reiterate that you’re staying on as majority leader. With stories and comments (Chuck Todd, Nate Silver) popping up more and more wondering if Reid has crossed the event horizon from which he can’t re-emerge from the black hole — much as Chris Dodd seemed to do last month — it’ll be interesting to watch his next series of moves.

The LVRJ reports gubernatorial numbers separately:

Jim Gibbons (R-inc): 23 (18)

Brian Sandoval (R): 39 (39)

Michael Montadon (R): 7 (6)

Undecided: 31 (37)

(MoE: ±6%)

Rory Reid (D): 31 (34)

Brian Sandoval (R): 53 (49)

Undecided: 16 (17)

Rory Reid (D): 43 (48)

Jim Gibbons (R-inc): 36 (34)

Undecided: 21 (18)

Rory Reid (D): 20 (24)

Brian Sandoval (R): 35 (32)

Oscar Goodman (I): 33 (35)

Undecided: 12 (9)

Rory Reid (D): 24 (25)

Jim Gibbons (R-inc): 21 (25)

Oscar Goodman (I): 41 (38)

Undecided: 14 (12)

(MoE: ±4%)

Things aren’t looking any better for Reid Jr., who seems to still be losing ground against Republican Brian Sandoval (although he still beats incumbent GOP governor Jim Gibbons in a two-way, perhaps the least popular man in a state chock-full of terribly unpopular politicians). Democratic Las Vegas mayor Oscar Goodman — who hasn’t made any official plans one way or another, but apparently would run as an independent if he ran — is competitive with Sandoval, although Sandoval noodges ahead in the three-way tossup.

RaceTracker Wiki: NV-Sen | NV-Gov

• Redistricting Contest: A reminder – if you haven’t sent in your .DRF.XML file to Jeff, please do so ASAP – jeffmd [at] swingstateproject [dot] com. Please be sure to include your SSP username and a link to your diary. Thanks! (D)

• AR-Sen: Alleged United States Senator Blanche Lincoln is whinging that actually doing her job in December cost her $300,000 in fundraising receipts. This is probably her way of saying her numbers will be lighter than expected this quarter. Why on earth would you go public with this, though? This is not exactly the kind of message you want to communicate to the public – or your opponents. (D)

• CA-Sen: A lot of Republicans seemed dismayed by Carla Fiorina’s suggestions a few months ago that she wasn’t going to be dipping into her personal money in order to fund her Senate bid – I mean, that was the whole point of her running, wasn’t it? At any rate, she’s just reversed course, with her latest finance report, which reveals that she loaned her campaign $2.5 million. Having burned through most of her outside donations, that leaves her with $2.7 million on hand.

• FL-Sen, FL-Gov: Charlie Crist’s message discipline seems to be gotten completely unglued, as he searches for the just-right pitch that’s moderate enough and yet conservative enough. Today, he’s acknowledging support for the stimulus package and “being nice” to Barack Obama, and not apologizing for either one. Meanwhile, there’s still that persistent rumor out there involving Crist bailing on the Senate race and going back to another term as Governor. That’s not happening if GOP AG Bill McCollum has anything to say about it; he says he won’t stand down for Crist.

• MA-Sen: Everyone’s still milling around waiting for that rumored close Boston Herald poll, but in the meantime, a new Democratic internal poll floated to the surface this morning, and it seems to give some credence to that Boston Globe/UNH poll that gave a solid 15-point margin to Democratic AG Martha Coakley. The internal, conducted by Mark Mellman’s firm, gives Coakley a 50-36 lead over Republican state Sen. Scott Brown, with Libertarian candidate Joe Kennedy (no relation to the Kennedy clan) pulling in a surprisingly-high 6 (which may be coming out of Brown’s share). If Brown has internals showing the race a dead heat like he claims, now would be the time for him to lay them on the table. Also today comes word that Barack Obama has no plans to campaign for Coakley, although I don’t know whether to interpret that as a sign of Democratic confidence, or of Obama not wanting to risk political capital on something that’s less than a slam dunk.

• ND-Sen: Gov. John Hoeven had said he needed a few weeks to get some stuff out of the way before saying anything official about the Senate race, but it looks like the stuff was more easily cleared away than anticipated: he’s now expected to announce his candidacy at an appearance at a GOP district convention in Bismarck tonight.  

• NY-Sen-B: Republican Rep. Peter King announced, for something like the third or fourth time, that he is no longer considering running for the Senate, and instead will run for another term in NY-03. Stay tuned for next month, when King will at some point remember that he hasn’t been on cable news for a while and will reveal that he’s considering a run for the Senate. Meanwhile, the political establishment is continuing to take seriously the possibility of a Harold Ford Jr. primary challenge to Kirsten Gillibrand, going all the way up to the White House, which today confirmed that it will back Gillibrand over Ford. Ford, meanwhile, is doing some serious remodeling of his image to better comport with New York codes: he’s now done a complete 180 on gay marriage, which he’s now for, and on abortion, where he claims that when he said he was pro-life, it was to “take back” the term from its right-wing appropriators. Finally, the Republicans will have to look elsewhere than ex-Rep. Susan Molinari for their nominee; after a brief flirtation, Molinari (who’s making big money consulting and probably doesn’t want the pay cut) just declined.

• UT-Sen: This should come as no surprise, but the NRSC, tasked with defending incumbents, confirmed that it’s supporting Bob Bennett in his re-election bid against several right-wing primary challengers. The Club for Growth has painted a bullseye on Bennett’s back, although they haven’t settled on which challenger to support.

• CO-Gov: Denver mayor John Hickenlooper hasn’t leaped as quickly into the Governor’s race (following the withdrawal of Bill Ritter and demurral of Ken Salazar) as many had expected; he’s saying he’ll make a decision within the next five days, so stay tuned. Former House speaker Andrew Romanoff, currently an invisible presence in the Senate primary, has also been consulting with Democratic officials about getting in, although it sounds like he’d do so only if Hickenlooper didn’t. Another rumor getting bandied about: Romanoff joining forces and running as Hickenlooper’s Lt. Gov. candidate; at any rate, it sounds like Romanoff is looking for an exit from the Senate race. Hickenlooper’s decision may get helped along by a certain Barack Obama, who apparently called Hickenlooper to encourage him to get into the race (Hickenlooper says that doesn’t change his decision, though).

• KS-Gov: Kansas Democrats are getting way, way down the totem pole as they look for a gubernatorial candidate, with Tom Wiggans’ recent withdrawal. Board of Regents chair Jill Docking, whose name frequently appears as Democrats’ Plan B in a variety of races, said she won’t run, and now the fickle finger seems to be pointing at Lawrence-area state Sen. Marci Francisco. (H/t Campaign Diaries.)

• MA-Gov: The Boston Globe/UNH poll of the Senate race also asked about 2010’s gubernatorial race, and it’s more confirmation for the apparent trend that Dem incumbent Deval Patrick seems bolstered by the presence of state Treasurer Tim Cahill’s independent bid (despite Patrick’s 39/50 favorables and Cahill’s 39/15). Rather than Cahill dominating the middle, as he may have expected, instead he just winds up splitting the anti-Patrick vote, leaving the race’s GOPers a distant third. A Patrick/Cahill/Charlie Baker ballot plays out 30-23-19, while Patrick/Cahill/Christy Mihos is a similar 32-23-19.

• CA-11: The GOP hasn’t quite found a top-tier candidate to take on Democratic Rep. Jerry McNerney, the only Golden State Dem who’s even remotely vulnerable. But they might get something of an upgrade with the newly-announced candidacy of David Harmer, the Republican attorney who acquitted himself fairly well in the special election last year in much bluer CA-10. He can bring residual name rec and fundraising connections to the race, and one of the race’s lesser lights, former San Jose city councilor Larry Pegram, is already moving to get out of the race. Still, Harmer doesn’t live in the district, and he exposes himself to the same carpetbagging charges he brought to his race against John Garamendi in the 10th.

• CA-19: Kevin McCarthy looks a little flaky after this whole incident: it was reported last Friday that the Bakersfield-area Republican was sticking with his earlier endorsement of state Sen. Jeff Denham in the 19th while admitting a bit of a man-crush on ex-Rep. Richard Pombo. But now the Fresno Bee is reporting that McCarthy has gone all the way, spurned Denham, and is now endorsing Pombo.

• HI-01: The local political establishment weighed in heavily on the side of state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa in the upcoming special election to replace resigning Rep. Neil Abercrombie. The decision of Sen. Daniel Akaka to endorse Hanabusa over his nemesis Ed Case should be no surprise, but this was accompanied by endorsements from the state’s other Senator, Daniel Inouye, and a variety of labor leaders as well. Case does have one endorsement which he’s touting in ads, though, from ex-Governor Ben Cayetano.

• NY-23: Doug Hoffman won’t have the GOP primary field to himself in the 23rd after all. He’ll face a fight with a fellow conservative, albeit more of a team player: Assemblyman Will Barclay, who passed on a run in the special election in the 23rd, says he’s begun exploring the general election race.

• OK-02: Rep. Dan Boren can always be counted on to say something douchey, and today’s no exception. He tells the Tulsa World (in an article titled “Boren: Democrats May Lose Congress”) that Dems are likely to lose seats in Congress, and that’s good news for Oklahoma and especially for him personally. “”In the 112th (Congress), I probably will have the most influence I have ever had, no matter who has the majority,” he says.

• TN-08: It remains to be seen how much of an impact this will have on the race to succeed retiring Dem Rep. John Tanner, but the Republican primary just shrunk by one: computer consultant Donn Janes has announced that he’s going to run instead as a Tea Party-aligned independent. (J)

• Mayors: That Rahm Emanuel-running-for-Chicago-mayor thing seemed to last a whole couple days. Emanuel yesterday praised Richard Daley and backed him for another term starting in 2011.

• Florida: For all the general black clouds hanging over the Democrats regarding 2010, there’s always a lot of nuts-and-bolts numbers that somehow still look favorable, such as party committee fundraising and registration numbers. In Florida, both are actually advantage Team Blue, as the state Democratic party is sitting on $2.6 million cash on hand, $1 million more than state Republicans. Democrats have also built up their registration advantage over Republicans in Florida, to a margin of more than 800,000.

• Tea Partiers: TPM has an interesting look at the civil war growing within the Tea Party movement, a microcosm of the larger civil war within the Republican party. Front and center today is the big teabaggers’ convention in Nashville (with Sarah Palin as keynoter), which is too expensive for many of the teabagging rank and file to attend, leading some to question whether there’s a usurpation of the movement by the Republicans’ Beltway professional class. Meanwhile, Think Progress has some new additions to its ongoing compendium of teabagger primary challenges to establishment GOPers.

SoonerPoll.com (1/2-5, likely voters):

Drew Edmondson (D): 39

Mary Fallin (R): 51

Jari Askins (D): 36

Mary Fallin (R): 52

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Primaries:

Drew Edmondson (D): 46

Jari Askins (D): 36

(MoE: ±5.4%)

Randy Brogdon (R): 16

Mary Fallin (R): 68

(MoE: ±6%)

These numbers are pretty close to the general picture we’ve seen so far: a Fallin internal from June had similar spreads, while PPP had Fallin up by spreads of 10 and 16 points. The interesting thing, though, is that Askins and Edmondson remain pretty well-liked; in fact, Edmondson’s favorable rating (51-31) is very close to Fallin’s (54-29). Askins is at a pretty decent 43-28. It almost makes you wonder if one of these two leading Democrats might consider running for re-election instead.

RaceTracker Wiki: OK-Gov

Edit: I just realized the deadline was of course Eastern standard time. Forgive the foolish Californian. At any rate, I did send my .drf.xml to Jeff in time, but even if I am too late this has been a lot of fun.

For my entry in New York redistricting contest, I decided to create a 27-1 map. I chose to eliminate Peter King and pack as many republicans as possible into Chris Lee’s 26th district.  

I expect all democrats to be reelected. Eliminating the old 3rd allowed me to move Nita Lowry’s district southwards, thereby opening up much of Westchester county to reinforce Hall and indirectly the other upstate districts. I aimed for 55% Obama (i.e. a PVI of D+2) for most of the vulnerable upstate districts. The most vulnerable incumbent is Bill Owens in the 23rd at 53% Obama. In general, I tried to keep incumbents in their main bases of support. Also, I was careful to make sure all incumbents’ homes were actually in their new districts.

I aimed for clean lines where possible; however, I had no compunction about obscene gerrymandering when necessary (e.g. Rochester). Some of the uglier districts where necessary to ensure VRA compliance (Nadia Velazquez’s). Also just for fun, I tried to keep all the NYC bridges within the same district.

All districts are within 1600 or about 0.2% of the average population and all but four are within 1000. Finally, I adjusted the district numbers to reflect the changes.

Now without further ado onto the districts.

Long Island

NY-01

Incumbent: Tim Bishop (D)

Population: 701,285

2008 Results: 54% Obama – 45% McCain

This district stays based in western Suffolk county including Bishop’s home in Southampton. I strengthened it from 51% Obama by grabbing some very blue parts of Islip in exchange for swingy parts of Brookhaven and solid red Smithtown.

NY-02

Incumbent: Steve Israel (D)

Population: 699,873

2008 Results: 54% Obama – 46% McCain

The 2nd stays based in western Suffolk county, including all of Israel’s home in Huntington. I had to weaken this district slightly to strengthen the 1st. I made up for this partly by sending a finger into true blue North Hempstead while moving GOP leaning parts of Babylon into McCarthy’s district.

NY-03

Incumbent: Carolyn McCarthy (D)

Population: 700,667

2008 Results: 56% Obama – 43% McCain

Formerly the 4th, this district takes in most of south eastern Nassau County, including most of McCarthy’s base in Hempstead.

NY-04

Incumbent: Gary Ackerman (D)

Population: 700,640

2008 Results: 55% Obama – 44% McCain

The remnants of Peter King’s district had to go somewhere, and this (formerly the 5th) is where much of it went. I moved the swingy parts of the old 3rd west of Hempstead here, while giving part of north Queens for balance. I also took in the blue parts of Glen Cove. This district drops a fair bit from its old D+12, but should stay blue.

New York City

Queens

NY-05

Incumbent: Gregory Meeks (D)

Population: 699,395

2008 Results: 74% Obama – 26% McCain

Formerly the 6th, this is probably my favorite district, simply because it royally screws Peter King. This stays based in southeast Queens, but stretches along the coast to take in the truly brutal parts of the old 3rd, including all of King’s hometown in Oyster Bay. At 50% African American, it stays VRA compliant and should be a cakewalk for Meeks.

NY-06

Incumbent: Anthony Weiner (D)

Population: 700,140

2008 Results: 61% Obama – 38% McCain

This district, formerly the 9th, is mostly unchanged. It is based in central and south western Queens, with a finger into republican parts of south Brooklyn.

NY-07

Incumbent: Joseph Crowley (D)

Population: 699,985

2008 Results: 72% Obama – 27% McCain

This district sheds its northern half in the Bronx, which instead goes to Nita Lowey. This is balanced out by the Queens part of Gary Ackerman’s old district.

Brooklyn

NY-08

Incumbent: Edolphus Townes (D)

Population: 700,681

2008 Results: 85% Obama – 15% McCain

Formerly the 10th, this district is still based eastern Brooklyn and still majority (56%) African American. I slightly extended the finger into south Brooklyn to take in some of the deep red areas.

NY-09

Incumbent: Nydia Velazquez (D)

Population: 700,803

2008 Results: 87% Obama – 12% McCain

Formerly the 12th, this VRA district continues to take in the majority Hispanic neighborhoods in northern Brooklyn, western Queens and lower Manhattan. In total the district is 51% Hispanic

NY-10

Incumbent: Yvette Clarke (D)

Population: 701,024

2008 Results: 86% Obama – 14% McCain

Formerly the 11th, this district stays deep blue with its 56% African American majority

NY-11

Incumbent: Michael McMahon (D)

Population: 699,849

2008 Results: 57% Obama – 43% McCain

Formerly the 13th, this district gets a big boost with the inclusion of the financial district and Batter Park in southern Manhattan. I also have a couple fingers into deep blue parts along the Brooklyn shore. The core of the district remains Staten Island however.

Manhattan

NY-12

Incumbent: Jerrold Nadler (D)

Population: 699,549

2008 Results: 71% Obama – 28% McCain

Formerly the 8th, this is probably the most gerrymandered district I have. As before it takes in most of the Lower West Side, wanders through lower Manhattan, the jumps across the Brooklyn Bridge to take in much of western Brooklyn

NY-13

Incumbent: Carolyn Maloney (D)

Population: 699,640

2008 Results: 80% Obama – 19% McCain

This districts stays based in eastern Manhatten then jumps accross the Queensboro Bridge and Long Expressway to take in north western Queens.

NY-14

Incumbent: Charlie Rangel (D)

Population: 701,118

2008 Results: 92% Obama – 7% McCain

Formerly the 15th, this district stays based in Harlem and the rest of northern Manhattan. At 44% Hispanic and 28% AA, this is still solidly majority minority.

Bronx

NY-15

Incumbent: Jose Serrano (D)

Population: 699,572

2008 Results: 95% Obama – 5% McCain

At 63% Hispanic, this is the Bronx area VRA district taking in the south west of the borough.

NY-16

Incumbent: Nita Lowey (D)

Population: 699,561

2008 Results: 67% Obama – 32% McCain

Formerly the 18th, this district stays based in New Rochelle, but moves to take in the Bronx parts of the 7th and red parts of Northern Nassau County.

NY-17

Incumbent: Eliot Engel (D)

Population: 699,626

2008 Results: 70% Obama – 29% McCain

This district stays based in the north west Bronx, then stretches along western Westchester to take in the blood red parts of Rockland county.

Upstate

NY-18

Incumbent: John Hall (D)

Population: 701,862

2008 Results: 58% Obama – 41% McCain

We now get to the second benefit of eliminating Peter King. Since a series of NYC districts moved south and west to fill in the old 3rd, I’m able to open up some bright blue parts of Westchester County. Hall’s district, formerly the 19th, now extends much further south, taking in White Plains, part of Yonkers, and Mount Vernon. For balance, I shed Orange county and south western Dutchess county.

NY-19

Incumbent: Maurice Hinchey (D)

Population: 700,165

2008 Results: 55% Obama – 44% McCain

Formerly the 22nd, this district gets the most radical redraw of any in the state. I shed the entire northern half of the district, using Binghamton and Ithaca to strengthen Acuri. Meanwhile, I extend the district south to take in Orange county and the blue parts of Rockland county. Most of Hinchey’s base in Ulster County is still in so she should still be able to hold onto it, but it will definitely won’t be cakewalk anymore.

NY-20

Incumbent: Scott Murphy (D)

Population: 700,715

2008 Results: 55% Obama – 44% McCain

The biggest change here is the addition of deep blue Troy and part of western Albany. Also I have added in Poughkeepsie and swingy parts of south western Dutchess County. I have given Washington county to the 23rd, along with a blue finger running down the west part of the district. This should be a little easier to hold.

NY-21

Incumbent: Paul Tonko (D)

Population: 700,770

2008 Results: 55% Obama – 43% McCain

This district is weakened slightly to help out Scott Murphy and to some extent Bill Owens. To make up for the loss of Troy and part of Albany I extend the district both north and south west. To the north I take in deep red Hamilton County along with GOP parts of Fulton, Saratoga, and Warren Counties. To the south west I take in swing parts of Greene and Sullivan Counties, red parts of Delaware county, and solid blue parts of north Ulster County.

NY-22

Incumbent: Mike Acuri (D)

Population: 700,450

2008 Results: 55% Obama – 44% McCain  

Formerly the 24th, this district gets a significant boost with the addition of Ithaca and Binghamton. I also shed the deep red area north of Rome. Finally to get sufficient population, I added in swingy Syracuse suburbs in south and western Onondaga County.

NY-23

Incumbent: Bill Owens (D)

Population: 701,668

2008 Results: 53% Obama – 45% McCain  

This remains our most vulnerable district in New York. Still I manage to make it a point bluer by shedding the deep red area north and west of Rome and extending the aforementioned finger down the eastern border.

NY-24

Incumbent: Eric Massa (D)

Population: 701,475

2008 Results: 55% Obama – 43% McCain  

Formerly the 29th, this district gets a significant boost from a large chunk of downtown Rochester. I also shed the deep red Western half of the district. Finally I sent out a finger going east to claim the rest of the swing parts of Maurice Hinchey’s old district

NY-25

Incumbent: Dan Maffei (D)

Population: 699,797

2008 Results: 55% Obama – 43% McCain  

This district also gets a bump from parts of Rochester. However, this is then canceled out by the very republican areas in and around northern Oneida County. The end result is a point more competitive, but Maffei should be able to hold it with his base in Syracuse

NY-26

Incumbent: Chris Lee (R)

Population: 700,240

2008 Results: 42% Obama – 57% McCain  

All the republicans in western New York had to go somewhere, so this is it. I added in the deep red western parts of Massa’s district along with any republican leaning areas in Erie and Chautauqa counties.  Meanwhile I moved in swing areas around Rochester or Buffalo into the 27th and 28th.

NY-27

Incumbent: Brian Higgins (D)

Population: 699,327

2008 Results: 57% Obama – 41% McCain  

This district is mostly unchanged, with a bit more of Higgins base in Buffalo. Should be an easy hold.

NY-28

Incumbent: Louise Slaughter (D)

Population: 699,260

2008 Results: 57% Obama – 41% McCain  

This district probably ties the 8th for most gerrymandered. Seriously, Congresswoman Slaughter please for all that is holy move to the other side of Rochester. As it is now this district is D+15. I wanted to share some of that wealth with Maffei and Massa. The result is a serious of fingers taking in all the swing or only lean blue suburbs of Rochester, with just the thinnest sliver running through the downtown area to connect her home. As before I then run along the shore of Lake Ontario to take in northern Buffalo. I realize this district is ugly, but then it already gets a bad rap as the “earmuffs.”

At any rate, that’s my crack at New York. I think that’s about as much as we can strengthen upstate without sacrificing one of our incumbents. If nothing else though, I am convinced we need to get rid of Peter King once and for all.

Full size maps are available at http://s862.photobucket.com/al…

I experienced technical difficulties trying to generate JPEGs, and had to run an update on my computer which left me unable to get any images up before midnight, although I did email my .drf file to Jeff before the deadline.  I understand if the lack of timely posted images leaves me ineligible for babka. 🙂  It’s my fault for trying to post on the last night of the contest, I realize.  I now have a statewide map, but my area maps are coming up very weird.

This 27-1 map has all 27 Democratic districts with at least 56% Obama voters.  All districts are contiguous over either land or bridges to the best of my knowledge.  Specific bridges are noted in particular district descriptions.

Unfortunately, I do agree that this looks fairly gerrymandered, but in other respects I like it.

I have 8,941 voters unaccounted-for that I have been unable to find even using the “next unassigned” tool.  Nonetheless, I have gotten all deviations from the theoretically proper district population within the maximum one percent.  

New York State image:

I am going to make further efforts tomorrow or later to generate better area maps, but I think this contest entry may fail for lack of technical acumen on my part.  Still, I offer these districts for whatever value they may provide the SSP community; hopefully there’s enough in this diary to at least help Jeff make sense of my .drf file.

District 1: Tim Bishop’s district, and remains rooted in his Southhampton base.  Instead of comprising all of eastern Suffolk, however, it omits much of the northern shore of Long Island and wends its way through Brookhaven and Smithtown into Islip.  

Strengthened from 52%-48% Obama-McCain under the current districts to 56%-43% Obama-McCain.  73% White, 15% Hispanic, 7% Black, 3% Asian, 2% Other.  Total population 699,044.

District 2:  Steve Israel’s district, which remains centered in his Huntington home base of northwestern Suffolk County (with the exception of the very shore), and includes much of Smithtown in northwestern Suffolk as well, but then tunnels through southern Suffolk County and central Nassau County to reach Jackson Heights, and portions of Corona and Flushing in Queens.

Strengthened from 56%-43% Obama-McCain under the current districts to 57%-42% Obama-McCain.  54% White, 23% Hispanic, 15% Asian, 6% Black, 2% Other.  Total population 700,293.

District 3: the approximate successor to Carolyn McCarthy’s current District 4, although significantly rearranged.  Part of the plan to screw Peter King, whose district has essentially disappeared and who would need to choose between running in any of districts 2 through 6, or 8, none of which are weaker than 57% Obama.  I believe this district may contain Carolyn McCarthy’s home in Mineola, although I am not certain, and adjustments might be necessary.  In addition to Mineola, it takes in a substantial portion of central and southern Nassau County, a Democratic area of western Nassau close to the border with Queens, some neighborhoods of eastern Queens such as the Floral Park and Fresh Meadows areas, much of the south shore of Suffolk County, and Republican-leaning chunk of Brookhaven in central Suffolk County.  Along with districts 4, 8, and possibly 2 and 5, it may contain Peter King’s home.

Like McCarthy’s current 58%-41% Obama-McCain district, this is 59%-41% Obama-McCain.  66% White, 14% Black, 12% Hispanic, 6% Asian, 2% Other.  Total population 700,743.

District 4: the majority-black successor to Gregory Meeks’ current District 6.  Still based around Jamaica, St. Albans, Springfield Gardens, and Meeks’ home in Far Rockaway.  Crosses the border into Nassau County with two distinct “tentacles” serving three purposes, however.  The northern protrusion into Nassau County takes in some majority-black areas just over the border and some Republican areas slightly further in to central Nassau.  The southern tentacle takes in Rockaway to create a land bridge to Far Rockaway and include some heavily Republican areas nearby as well, and then incorporates Republican areas near the southern shore reaching all the way out to around Peter King’s Seaford / Oyster Bay home.  It may or may not include that home.

Weakened from Meeks’ current 89%-11% Obama-McCain to 76%-24% Obama-McCain, but this should not put Meeks in any serious jeopardy.  51% Black, 29% White, 11% Hispanic, 4% Asian, 5% Other.  Total population 698,468.

District 5: the successor to Gary Ackerman’s current District 5.  Still includes northern Nassau, including his Roslyn Heights home area, and reaches into Flushing and other portions of northern Queens just like his current district.  The Queens segment is longer and narrower, however, reaching all the way across the borough past Flushing and through LaGuardia Airport and East Elmhurst to Astoria.  And the Long Island segment extends further out, taking in much of what is now the northern part of Peter King’s district in northeastern Nassau County, and also crossing over to Babylon in southwestern Suffolk County.  Peter King’s home may be included at that crossover point, although it is probably to the south.

Slightly weakened from Ackerman’s current 63%-36% Obama-McCain to 58%-42% Obama-McCain, but Ackerman should still be OK.  69% White, 12% Hispanic, 11% Asian, 6% Black, 2% Other.  Total population 699,091.

District 6: the successor to Anthony Weiner’s current District 9.  Includes much of Forest Hills and nearby portions of Queens (the boundaries may need to be tweaked to include his exact home address), the Ozone Park and Howard Beach areas of Queens, and some Republican areas of southeastern Brooklyn such as Brighton Beach, Manhattan Beach, and Sheepshead Bay.  Also extends a tentacle into Nassau County to take in some Republican areas of western-central Nassau.

Strengthened from Weiner’s current 55%-44% Obama-McCain to 58%-41% Obama-McCain, befitting Weiner recent liberal stands and to increase the odds of holding the seat if he becomes Mayor of NYC.  52% White, 18% Hispanic, 17% Asian, 7% Black, 6% Other.  Total population 697,614.

District 7: the successor to Jerrold Nadler’s current District 8.  Still includes his home neighborhood of the Upper West Side of Manhattan, and some Republican areas of Brooklyn.  Includes less of Manhattan south of the UWS than Nadler’s current districxt, however, and somewhat more of the Republican portions of Brooklyn because it is taking in areas currently belonging to Mike McMahon’s Staten-Island-based 13th, the 12th under this redistricting.  Also, this 7th takes an even more convoluted route to get to most of its Brooklyn territory than Nadler’s current 8th: it goes down the west coast of Manhattan and around the southern tip to the Brooklyn Bridge, then down the Brooklyn coast to the southern tip of the majority-Hispanic District 11 (also taking in some Republican areas of Bay Ridge), then winds up around the 11th and back down around the Park Slope and Ditmas Park northern tip of the new 12th, before expanding to take in Borough Park, Bensonhurst, Bath Beach, and much of Coney Island, Dyker Heights and the remainder of Bay Ridge.  

Roughly the same partisan breakdown as Nadler’s current district, strengthened very slightly from 74%-26% Obama-McCain to 74%-25% Obama-McCain.  61% White, 15% Hispanic, 11% Asian, 9% Black, 3% Other.  Total population 701,117.

District 8: the successor to Joseph Crowley’s current District 7.  Still based in his home neighborhood of Woodside and surrounding areas of Queens, but instead of extending up to the Bronx, it extends out on to Long Island to take in Republican parts of central and southern Nassau County.  It at least comes close to Peter King’s home, and may include it.

Weakened from Crowley’s current 79%-20% Obama-McCain to 61%-38% Obama-McCain.  This should still be sufficient for Crowley, however, and his overly moderate, almost bluedoggish and “white ethnic” political personality should play well in Nassau County.  55% White, 23% Hispanic, 15% Asian, 4% Black, 4% Other.  Total population 700,800.

District 9: the majority-black successor to Ed Towns’ current District 10, covering roughly the same areas in Bedford-Stuyvesant, East New York and Canarsie, plus some of Downtown Brooklyn and a bit of Williamsburg.

Very similar partisan breakdown, 90%-10% Obama-McCain as opposed to the current District 10 91%-9% Obama-McCain.  55% Black, 22% White, 15% Hispanic, 4% Asian, 3% Other.  Total population 699,196.

District 10: the majority-black successor to Yvette Clark’s current District 11.  Still centered in Crown Heights, Brownsville and Flatbush, but takes in Republican areas around Gravesend, Ocean Parkway and Manhattan Terrace rather than the more Democratic Park Slope.  

Weakened to 78%-21% Obama-McCain from 91%-9% Obama-McCain in the current District 11, but 78% Obama should be strong enough.  54% Black, 30% White, 8% Hispanic, 5% Asian, 3% Other.  Total population 698,631.

District 11: the majority-Hispanic successor to Nydia Velasquez’s current District 12.  Somewhat more similar to the original “Bullwinkle” version of her district, this takes in Hispanic neighborhoods on the Lower East Side of Manhattan; Red Hook, Sunset Park, East Williamsburg, Bushwick, and Cypress Hills in Brooklyn; and Hunter’s Point and Long Island City in Queens.  It also includes Velasquez’s home neighborhood of Williamsburg in Brooklyn and Asian neighborhoods in Manhattan’s Chinatown.  Note that the Manhattan and Brooklyn sides of the district are connected by the Manhattan Bridge and the Williamsburg Bridge.

Very similar partisan breakdown to current District 12, 87%-13% Obama-McCain rather than the current 86%-13% Obama-McCain.  51% Hispanic, 20% White, 14% Asian, 11% Black, 4% Other.  Total population 698,823.

District 12: the successor to Mike McMahon’s current District 13.  Still based in Staten Island, but extends into more Democratic neighborhoods of Brooklyn than the current incarnation, especially Park Slope.  

Strengthened to 56%-43% Obama-McCain, compared to 49%-51% Obama-McCain in the current District 13.  65% White, 13% Hispanic, 9% Black, 9% Asian, 3% Other.  Total population 702,424.

District 13: the successor to Carolyn Maloney’s current District 14, but based purely in Manhattan (omitting the Astoria/Long Island City portions of her current district), adding to her Upper East Side and Midtown base more West Side and downtown neighborhoods than her current district, such as Clinton/Hell’s Kitchen, Chelsea, the West Village and much of the Financial District.

Strengthened slightly to 81%-18% Obama-McCain from 78%-21% Obama-McCain.  72% White, 11% Hispanic, 9% Asian, 5% Black, 2% Other.  Total population 700,061.

District 14: the majority-minority successor to Charlie Rangel’s current District 15.  Still based in Harlem, but instead of extending down the west side of Manhattan to Morningside Heights and the northern Upper West Side, it crosses over a number of Harlem River bridges to the Morris Heights, University Heights and High Bridge neighborhoods of the southwestern Bronx.  It also includes Rangel’s traditional representation of the Riker’s Island prison, connected by the Triboro Bridge, a largely unpopulated portion of northern Queens, and dedicated bridge to Riker’s Island.

Similar partisan breakdown to the current District 15: 95%-5% Obama-McCain compared to the current 93%-6% Obama-McCain.  55% Hispanic, 35% Black, 6% White, 1% Asian, 2% Other.  Total population 699,859.

District 15: the majority-Hispanic successor to Jose Serrano’s current District 16.  Still occupies a similar area of the South Bronx, although it is shifted slightly to the east, including the Hunt’s Point and Soundview neighborhoods but losing the above-discussed areas in Morris Heights, University Heights and High Bridge to District 14.

Similar partisan breakdown to current District 16: 93%-6% Obama-McCain as compared to the current 95%-5% Obama-McCain in District 16.  61% Hispanic, 28% Black, 6% White, 2% Other.  Total population 701,023.

District 16: the successor to Eliot Engel’s current District 17.  Based in his home neighborhood of Riverdale and including other portions of the northern Bronx as Engel’s current district does, but rather than only extending up the river to Rockland County, it takes in Republican areas of Rockland as well as a number of other Republican areas in the suburbs north of New York.  In particular, it takes in Republican portions of Yonkers and Eastchester in Westchester County; Yorktown and much of Somers in northern Westchester; more than half of Putnam County; and East Fishkill and LaGrange in southern Duchess County.  It is worth noting that the Metro-North New York commuter rail system extends even slightly beyond this district, to Poughkeepsie west of this district and Dover Plains and Wassaic to the east and northeast, so this is still essentially a district of New York City commuters.

Weakened to 60%-39% Obama-McCain from the current 72%-28% Obama-McCain, but Engel should be able to handle it– especially because I believe the heavily-Republican areas of Ramapo in Rockland that Engel is given here are Orthodox Jewish areas that may be won over by the fact that Engel is himself Jewish and has fairly hawkish/pro-Israel views on Middle East issues.  59% White, 22% Black, 14% Hispanic, 4% Asian, 2% Other.  Total population 701,212.

District 17: the successor to Nita Lowey’s current District 18.  Although it contains her hometown of Harrison and much of the rest of eastern Westchester, it extends through the eastern Bronx, across the Throgs Neck Bridge, and along the northern shore of Long Island to take in much of northeastern Suffolk County.

Weakened slightly to 60%-40% Obama-McCain from 62%-38% Obama-McCain for Lowey’s current District 18, but not enough to hurt Lowey, especially because the Long Island suburbs are a reasonably good fit for her current district.  66% White, 19% Hispanic, 9% Black, 4% Asian, 2% Other.  Total population 700,635.

District 18: the successor to John Hall’s current District 19, but while it remains centered around his hometown of Dover, it extends largely up and down the Hudson Valley rather than across it.  Some of Rockland, Orange and a little bit of Ulster County are included, but much of Westchester and portions of Columbia and Rensselaer counties are also included.  On the southern end, in addition to Democratic portions of Yonkers and Mount Vernon, this district also includes a small piece of the northern Bronx.

Strengthened substantially, to 60%-40% Obama-McCain from the current 51%-48% in Hall’s current District 19, which should more than make up for the addition of unfamiliar areas.  72% White, 11% Black, 11% Hispanic, 4% Asian, 2% Other.  Total population 700,716.

District 19: the successor to Scott Murphy’s current District 20 (which previously belonged to Kirsten Gillibrand), this remains fundamentally a northeastern Hudson Valley district, but is redrawn to add more Democratic areas.  From Murphy’s hometown of Glens Falls in Warren County, it winds around (but avoids) Saratoga Springs and Schenectady, takes in the Democratic strongholds of Cohoes and Troy in the Albany area, and includes much of Washington, Rensselaer and Columbia counties.  It also takes in Poughkeepsie and Beacon on the east side of the Hudson Valley, as well as Beacon’s sister city of Newburgh on the west side of the river, and continues down through western Putnam County to Peekskill and parts of Ossining and Cortlandt in northern Westchester.

Strengthened to 56%-43% Obama-McCain from the 51%-48% Obama-McCain of the current 20th District.  83% White, 7% Black, 6% Hispanic, 2% Asian, 1% Other.  Total population 700,109.

District 20: the successor to Paul Tonko’s current District 21, this is centered around Albany and contains his hometown of Amsterdam just like the current district, and does include Rensselaer city on the east bank of the Hudson across from Albany, but rather than including Troy, Cohoes, and Schenectady (which have been reassigned elsewhere) extends through additional counties west of Albany, south to Ulster and even part of Sullivan county, and west to Delaware, Otsego, Herkimer and a little bit of Oneida.

Slightly weakened to 57%-41% Obama-McCain from the 58%-40% Obama-McCain of the current 21st District, but that shouldn’t be enough to cause any trouble for Tonko.  87% White, 6% Black, 4% Hispanic, 2% Asian, 1% Other.  Total population 697,546.

District 21: the successor to Maurice Hinchey’s current District 22, this district still includes his hometown of Hurley and the west bank of the Hudson in Ulster County, and still extends west from there, but it has been substantially reshaped.  It includes the northern suburbs of Binghamton, but no longer Binghamton itself; from there it extends north to include Republican areas of Cortland and Chenango counties and a little bit of Madison.  It no longer includes Ithaca, home of Cornell University, but as compensation it extends through Rockland (where it takes in a number of Democratic areas) and down the bank of the Hudson to Morningside Heights in Manhattan and takes in Columbia University.

Slightly weakened to 57%-42% Obama-McCain from the 59%-39% Obama-McCain of the current District 22.  Hinchey should be able to handle it, taking one for the team to help other Upstate Democrats.  74% White, 11% Hispanic, 9% Black, 3% Asian, 2% Other.  Total population 699,827.

District 22: the successor to the current District 23, the Northern Tier district that Bill Owens won over Doug Hoffman.  In addition to St. Lawrence County, Franklin, Clinton (including Owens’ hometown of Plattsburgh), and much of Essex, Jefferson, and Oswego, this district reaches south to take in the Democratic cities of Saratoga Springs and Schenectady.

Strengthened to 56%-43% Obama-McCain from the 52%-47% Obama-McCain of current District 23.  91% White, 4% Black, 3% Hispanic, 1% Asian, 1% Other.  Total population 700,229.

District 23: the successor to Michael Arcuri’s current District 24.  Includes Arcuri’s hometown of Utica, and nearby Rome, as well as Auburn and Cortland, and most of the part of Tompkins county currently represented by Arcuri.  In addition, incorporates Binghamton and Ithaca itself (currently represented by Hinchey), and reaches down to take in some Democratic portions of Sullivan and Orange Counties (including Middletown), as well as a small piece of Rockland.

Strengthened to 56%-42% Obama-McCain (2% Other) from the 51%-48% Obama-McCain of current District 24.  86% White, 5% Black, 5% Hispanic, 3% Asian, 2% Other.  Total population 700,163.

District 24: the successor to Dan Maffei’s current District 25.  Still centered around Syracuse and including all of the surrounding Onondaga County, but reaches out east to the Oneida area and west to, among other areas, large portions of Ontario and Yates counties.

Same partisan breakdown as the current District 25: 56%-43% Obama-McCain.  88% White, 6% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian, 1% Native American, 1% Other.  (In other racial breakdowns where the Native American percentage is displayed as 0%, I have not listed it separately.  Total population 699,379.

District 25: the successor to Louise Slaughter’s current district 28, or more precisely the successor to her old Rochester-based district before it got combined with Buffalo in the last redistricting.  Contains Rochester and most of the surrounding Monroe County (including Slaughter’s home in Perinton), with the exception of some heavily Republican areas in the west of the county.

Only 59%-40% Obama-McCain, as compared to the 69-30% Obama-McCain of the current Rochester-to-Buffalo “dumbbell” district.  But Louise Slaughter, and even her successor when she eventually retires, should be safe enough at 59%-40%.  77% White, 13% Black, 5% Hispanic, 3% Asian, 2% Other.  Total population 700,707.

District 26: successor to the current District 26, this is the designated Republican district, home to Christopher Lee.  (At least, it likely includes his Clarence home; a small portion of Clarence is not included, but the boundaries can be tweaked if necessary.)  Ranging from Republican suburbs and rural areas south and east of Buffalo to other Republican rural areas of the state, such as Steuben County in the Southern Tier and much of Hamilton County in the Northern Tier, all the way east to Essex County near the Vermont border.

39%-59% Obama-McCain, as compared to the 46%-52% Obama-McCain currently.  95% White, 2% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Other.  Total population 701,016.

District 27: successor to Eric Massa’s current District 29.  Runs from his Corning hometown along the southern New York State border to take in Democratic areas like Elmira city and Salamanca city, and Jamestown city in Chautauqua county, and then extends up to northern Buffalo and the northeastern Democratic suburbs of Buffalo.  Also extends a tentacle up from the Southern Tier to take in the town of Geneseo in Livingston County (more than 10,000 voters split 63%-35% Obama-McCain, due in substantial part to the 5,000-student State University of New York Geneseo campus).

Strengthened to 56%-42% Obama-McCain from the 48%-51% Obama-McCain of Massa’s current District 29.  84% White, 11% Black, 2% Hispanic, 2% Asian, 1% Other.  Total population 701,136.

District 28: the successor to Brian Higgins’ current District 27. Still includes southern Buffalo, much of southern Erie County and much of Chautauqua county, but omits Republican portions of Erie and Chautauqua, and also passes through western Buffalo to Niagara Falls, Tonawanda, North Tonawanda, and Lockport in Niagara County.

Strengthened to 56%-43% Obama-McCain, as compared to the 54%-44% Obama-McCain of the current District 27.  85% White, 8% Black, 4% Hispanic, 1% Asian, 1% Native American, 1% Other.  Total population 700,553.

I decided to go with a 28-0 map because I think its the most realistic. I dont think the democrats would have spent a million dollars to get Bill Owens elected if they didnt intend on keeping all upstate Democrats. I get 28 Democrat districts by drawing Lee and Massa into the same district and King and McCarthy into the same district and creating a new Long Island seat. My map only leaves two Democrats under 54% Murphy and Owens. I chose these two because the Northeast seems to be the fastest Democrat trending area of New York.  

NY-1: Bishop

Part of Suffolk County

New 54%-46% Obama

Old 52%-48% Obama

White:81% Black:5% Native:0% Asian:3% Hispanic:10% Other:1%

Stays mostly the same loses Smithtown and reaches into the Hispanic part of Islip

NY-2: Israel

Part of Suffolk County, part of Nassau County

New 55%-45% Obama

Old 56%-43% Obama

White:75% Black:9% Native:0% Asian:3% Hispanic:12% Other:2%

Stays mostly the same

NY-3: No Incumbent

Part of Suffolk County, part of Nassau County, part of Queens, part of Bronx

New 57%-43% Obama

Old 52%-47% McCain

White:67% Black:15% Native:0% Asian:4% Hispanic:12% Other:2%

I drew this district from the Bronx to the Conservative areas of Suffolk and Nassau to let the other districts pick up the more Democratic areas of Suffolk and Nassau. I noticed some people drew 3 horizontal districts to solve this problem but I like this way because I keep Israel’s and McCarthy’s districts as close to their current districts as possible. This way also allows me to add a few more Democratic votes to the other districts.

NY-4: King vs McCarthy

Part of Suffolk County, Part of Nassau County

New 57%-42% Obama

Old 57%-42% Obama

White:67% Black:16% Native:0% Asian:3% Hispanic:12% Other:2%

McCarthy keeps most of her old district and King loses most of his republican areas

NY-5: Ackerman

Part of Queens, part of Nassau County

New 57%-43% Obama

Old 63%-36% Obama

White:58% Black:6% Native:0% Asian:21% Hispanic:12% Other:3%

Loses parts of Queens to reach further into Nassau

NY-6: Meeks

Queens

New 87%-13% Obama

Old 89%-11% Obama

White:16% Black:50% Native:1% Asian:8% Hispanic:16% Other:8%

Stays mostly the same

NY-7: Crowley

Queens, Bronx

New 76%-23% Obama

Old 79%-20% Obama

White:31% Black:15% Native:0% Asian:15% Hispanic:36% Other:3%

loses parts of the Bronx and adds parts of Queens

NY-8: Nadler

Upper West Side, Lower East Side, Brooklyn

New 79%-20% Obama

Old 74%-24% Obama

White:50% Black:5% Native:0% Asian:19% Hispanic:23% Other:3%

The 8th becomes a minority district with a 50.25% minority population by picking up minority areas of the Lower East Side and Brooklyn

NY-9: Weiner

Brooklyn, Queens

New 56%-43% Obama

Old 55%-44% Obama

White:62% Black:5% Native:0% Asian:16% Hispanic:13% Other:3%

Adds more of Southern Brooklyn loses some of Queens

NY-10: Towns

Brooklyn

New 92%-7% Obama

Old 91%-9% Obama

White:18% Black:59% Native:0% Asian:3% Hispanic:17% Other:3%

Stays mostly the same

NY-11: Clarke

Brooklyn

New 83%-16% Obama

Old 91%-9% Obama

White:27% Black:55% Native:0% Asian:5% Hispanic:10% Other:4%

Adds some of the heavily republican areas of Brooklyn to keep it out of Weiner’s district

NY-12: Valazquez

Brooklyn, Queens

New 81%-19% Obama

Old 86%-13% Obama

White:25% Black:10% Native:0% Asian:9% Hispanic:51% Other:4%

Removed the southern part of Brooklyn and added more of Queens to make it a little more compact.

NY-13: McMahon

Staten Island, Brooklyn, Manhattan

New 58%-41% Obama

Old 51%-49% McCain

White:72% Black:7% Native:0% Asian:7% Hispanic:11% Other:2%

Adds part of Manhattan, couldnt get the distric Democratic enough without it.

NY-14: Maloney

Upper East Side, Queens

New 78%-21% Obama

Old 78%-21% Obama

White:62% Black:6% Native:0% Asian:11% Hispanic:16% Other:4%

Stays mostly the same

NY-15: Rangel

Harlem, Spanish Harlem, Upper West Side, Washington Heights

New 93%-6% Obama

Old 93%-6% Obama

White:18% Black:29% Native:0% Asian:3% Hispanic:47% Other:2%

Stays mostly the same

NY-16: Serrano

Bronx

New 95%-5% Obama

Old 95%-5% Obama

White:3% Black:30% Native:0% Asian:2% Hispanic:63% Other:2%

Stays mostly the same

NY-17: Engel

Rockland County, Part of Westchester County(Yonkers), Bronx

New 61%-38% Obama

Old 72%-28% Obama

White:62% Black:12% Native:0% Asian:6% Hispanic:18% Other:2%

Loses part of the Bronx to add more of Rockland County.

NY-18: Lowey

Part of Westchester County(Mount Vernon, New Rochelle, White Plains, Rye) part of Putnam County, part of Dutchess County

New 60%-39% Obama

Old 62%-38% Obama

White:69% Black:14% Native:0% Asian:4% Hispanic:12% Other:2%

Has to reach further North with the loss of an upstate district.

NY-19: Hall

Part of Dutchess County(Poughkeepsie), part of Columbia County, part of Orange County, Part of Putnam County, part of Westchester County(Peekskill)

New 54%-45% Obama

Old 51%-48% Obama

White:79% Black:8% Native:0% Asian:2% Hispanic:9% Other 2%

Stays mostly the same.

NY-20: Murphy

Warren, Saratoga, Washington Counties, part of Schenectady, Rensselaer, Columbia Counites

New 53%-45% Obama

Old 51%-48% Obama

White:92% Black:3% Native:0% Asian:1% Hispanic:2% Other:1%

Adds Schenectady and becomes much more compact.

NY-21: Tonko

Albany, Fulton, Montgomery Counties

New 54%-44% Obama

Old 58%-40% Obama

White:89% Black:5% Native:0% Asian:1% Hispanic:3% Other:1%

Has to become larger to allow other districts to become more Deomcratic.

NY-22: Hinchey

Ulster County, Sullivan County, Broome Coumty(Binghamton)

New 54%-44% Obama

Old 59%-39% Obama

White:86% Black:5% Native:0% Asian:2% Hispanic:5% Other:2%

Stays mostly the same. Loses Ithica and adds more rural areas to become less Democratic.

NY-23: Owens

Clinton County, Oswego County, Jefferson County, part of Onieda County(Rome)

New 51%-47% Obama

Old 52%-47% Obama

White:93% Black:3% Native:1% Asian:1% Hispanic:2% Other:1%

Stays mostly the same. I kept Owens district the weakest because he is the newest representative and his district is trending Democratic faster than most. Hopefully by mid decade he will have a more favorable district.

NY-24: Arcuri

Tompkins County(Ithaca), Part of Onieda County(Utica), Part of Monroe County

New 55%-44% Obama

Old 51%-48% Obama

White:90% Black:3% Native:0% Asian:3% Hispanic:2% Other:1%

Has to move further west with the loss of a district. Becomes more Democratic with adding Ithica and Rochester suburbs.

NY-25: Maffei

Onondaga County(Syracuse), part of Monroe County

New 56%-43% Obama

Old 56%-43% Obama

White:87% Black:6% Native:1% Asian:2% Hispanic:2% Other:2%

Stays the same

NY-26: Lee vs Massa

Steuben County, Part of Erie County(Buffalo), Part of Niagara(Niagara Falls)

New 54%-45% Obama

Old 29th 51%-48% McCain

White:82% Black:14% Native:1% Asian:2%  Hispanic:1% Other:1%

Combines some republican areas of both reps and adds most of the black areas of Buffalo and Niagara Falls. If Massa can win his current district in 2010 he should win in 2012 against Lee in the more favorable district.

NY-27: Higgins

Part of Erie County(Buffalo), Chatuaqua County

New 54%-44% Obama

Old 54%-44% Obama

White:88% Black:5% Native:1% Asian:1% Hispanic:4% Other:1%

Higgins wins by comfortable margins so I kept his district the same.

NY-28: Slaughter

Part of Monroe County(Rochester), Part of Niagara County, Orleans County

New 55%-43% Obama

Old 69%-30%Obama

White:79% Black:13% Native:0% Asian:1% Hispanic:5% Other:2%

Loses its parts of Buffalo and Niagara Falls and adds more of Monroe County.  

This is my contest entry for Redistricting New York.

The aim of this entry was to create a map where 27 Democrats should be expected to win in New York in any given election. Every Democratic district is 53%+ for Obama. (Notwithstanding the astute observation by jeffmd that Presidential toplines don't mean everything) only 16 Republicans were elected in districts that Obama won by 53% or more (DE-AL, IL-06, IL-10, IL-13, IL-16, IA-04, LA-02, MI-06, MI-08, MI-11, NJ-02, OH-12, PA-06, PA-15, VA-10, and WA-08 [55% or more in bold]).

This entry respects VRA districts in New York City, puts King an a solid Obama district, and solidifies Democratic districts in upstate New York. 

Since New York is expected to lose one Congressional seat, one incumbent's district needs to be eliminated. Although the current Representative from New York 23 is a Democrat, I eliminated Representative Owens district and combined his home with Representative Murphy's NY-20. This map also shifts Representative Massa out of his district (represented here as NY-19). The reason for this is the location of his home in southeastern Steuben County. Steuben County is surrounded by Republican leaning counties, and a way to create a third solid Democratic district in Western New York is to connect Rochester and Syracuse.

Long Island

NY 1 Current Incumbent – Bishop

Population – 700,226

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	77%	7%	2%	12%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	54%	44%
New District	54%	46%
Change	0%	+2%

NY 1 becomes the southern half of Suffolk County.

NY 2 – Current Incumbent – Israel

Population – 700,711

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	78%	7%	3%	10%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	56%	43%
New District	54%	46%
Change	-2%	+3%

NY 2 contains the central and northeastern portions of Suffolk County. This district remains potentially competitive, as the district vote for Obama was 53%.

Of all of the districts drawn on this map, this is probably the hardest one to justify – going from a district where Obama won with 56% in 2008. The only solace that I have is that a) Republicans rarely win districts where Obama won with 53% or greater, and b) there are plenty of Republican precincts in Nassau in Suffolk counties, especially along the border and along the northern shore. This, then requires a couple of decisions that need to be made. First, you could divide up Nassau and Suffolk counties east-west as exemplified by Answer Guy with a historical discussion here. Answer Guy's map divides Nassau into seven districts – each taking a portion of the Republican areas on Long Island.

NY 3 – Current Incumbent – None

Population – 700,454

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	70%	13%	4%	11%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	47%	52%
New District	55%	44%
Change	+8%	-8%

Unlike other maps for this contest, I did not feel the need to split up Long Island – just moving the pieces around could create four Democratic-leaning districts (and BTW, and FWIW, WA 1 is connected by Ferry between Edmonds and Kingston).

This configuration of NY 3 draws Representative King out of the district. Even if he were to decide to run in the district, and not against Representative McCarthy in his NY 4, he would face a district where Obama received 55% of the vote.

The district is split into two areas, those parts of Hempstead adjacent to Queens and the portion of Hempstead adjacent to Suffolk County. The two areas are connected through Long Beach.

NY 4 – Current Incumbent – McCarthy

Population – 700,121

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	77%	5%	9%	9%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	58%	41%
New District	54%	46%
Change	-4%	5%

This is perhaps my ugliest looking district, but Representative McCarthy should be able to retain his seat under this configuration. The district encompasses the northern part of Nassau County, some Republican areas of Hempstead, and the North and West portions of Suffolk County. The district also extends into the Bay Side and Bay Terrace neighborhoods of the Queens.

If Representative King were to run for this seat, he would find its dynamics very unfavorable, with a lot of new constituents with a strong Democratic lean.

NY 5 – Current Incumbent – Ackerman/King

Population – 700,231

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	54%	9%	20%	14%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	63%	36%
New District	60%	39%
Change	-3%	+3%

NY 5 could be considered a New York City district, as it stretches from the Bronx through Queens into North Hempstead and Republican areas of Hempstead (including Representative King's Seaford neighborhood).

New York City

NY 6 Current Incumbent – Meeks

Population – 700,218

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	16%	51%	8%	16%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	89%	11%
New District	86%	13%
Change	-3%	+2%

This is a VRA district, and it does not change much from the current district. It does add all of the Rockaways.

NY 7 Current Incumbent – Crowley

Population – 700,095

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	41%	9%	11%	34%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	79%	20%
New District	70%	29%
Change	-9%	+9%

Like the existing district, there are two distinct areas of the district. Instead of going North, NY 7 now orientates South, from Woodside and Hunters Point, through Ridgewood and Bushwick, and Woodhaven. From there, the district cuts into Jamaca Bay, Floyd Bennet Field and Marine Park to connect to Seagate, Coney Island, Brighton Beach and Manhattan Beach.

This is a minority-majority district.

NY 8 Current Incumbent – Nadler

Population – 700,295

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	52%	11%	15%	20%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	74%	25%
New District	87%	13%
Change	+13%	-12%

NY 8 is now entirely a West Side/Lower Manhattan district.

NY 9 Current Incumbent – Weiner

Population – 700,395

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	26%	11%	17%	42%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	55%	44%
New District	76%	23%
Change	+21%	-21%

NY 9 takes what was lost from NY 7 – crossing from the Queens into the Bronx over the Bronx-Whiteshone Bridge. The district is a minority-majority district.

NY 10 Current Incumbent – Towns

Population – 700,417

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	24%	52%	4%	16%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	91%	9%
New District	84%	16%
Change	-7%	+7%

NY 10 loses the Willamsburg neighborhood and areas toward the west, and gains Republican areas in Manhattan Terrace. The district remains an African-American majority district.

NY 11 Current Incumbent – Clarke

Population – 700,102

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	49%	15%	16%	16%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	90%	9%
New District	60%	40%
Change	-30%	+31%

The district extends from Representative Clarke's home precinct in Prospect Gardens in the north to Bath Beach in the south. While NY 11 is no longer an African-American majority district, it remains a minority-majority district. Because it takes in many of the Republican precincts in Queens, Obama's percentage in the district drops to 60%.

NY 12 Current Incumbent – Velazquez

Population – 700,391

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	22%	50%	4%	20%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	86%	13%
New District	91%	9%
Change	+5%	-4%

NY 12 is now the second African-American majority district located entirely in the Queens. The district encompasses the Crown Heights and Prospect Heights neighborhoods as well as the Williamsburg neighborhoods. On the western edge of the Queens, a finger stretches south to pick up Representative Velazquez's home precinct in Carroll Gardens.

It is possible that neither Nydia Velazquez nor Yvette Clarke would be happy in their districts, since Representative Clarke will represent the more Hispanic-leaning district, while Representative Velazquez will represent an African-American majority district. However, this could be easily rectified. First, in my original map (before I learned what precinct each representative lives in), I had Representative Clarke in NY 12 (and she now is the Northernmost precinct of NY 11). Second, since Representative Velazquez is a renter, it is possible that she could subsequently move into the then open NY 11.

NY 13 Current Incumbent – McMahon

Population – 700,091

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	67%	9%	6%	15%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	49%	51%
New District	60%	39%
Change	+11%	-12%

All of Staten Island remains in NY 13, and the district crosses into Brooklyn over the Verrazano-Narrows Bridge. From the bridge, the district heads north along the New York Bay into the Red Hook and Gowanus neighborhoods.

This composition makes the swing district a reliable Democratic district. Obama won 60% in this district.

NY 14 Current Incumbent – Maloney

Population – 700,256

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	61%	8%	9%	19%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	78%	21%
New District	80%	19%
Change	+2%	-2%

NY 14 retains much of its current shape – although it does go a bit further north to encompass Rikers Island. Representative Maloney should be happy, as Obama won 80% of the vote here.

NY 15 Current Incumbent – Rangel

Population – 699,954

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	14%	30%	3%	50%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	93%	6%
New District	91%	8%
Change	-2%	+2%

Charlie Rangel may face a stiff primary challenge in this district where Obama won 91% of the vote. The district loses portions of the Upper West Side for the Norwood and Olinville neighborhoods in the Bronx. The district does retain most of Harlem.

The district is a majority Hispanic district (just over 50%). 

NY 16 Current Incumbent – Serrano

Population – 700,580

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	5%	30%	2%	60%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	95%	5%
New District	93%	6%
Change	-2%	+1%

60% Hispanic. 93% Obama. Not much more I can say about this Bronx district.

Upstate New York

NY 17 Current Incumbent – Lowey

Population – 700,687

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	62%	20%	3%	12%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	62%	38%
New District	62%	37%
Change	+0%	-1%

Representative Lowey's district extends from the Bronx and follows I-95 and I-695 through Mount Vernon to the Connecticut border. To complete the district, NY 17 extends north along I-84 into eastern Putnam County and southern Dutchess counties.

NY 18 Current Incumbent – Engel

Population – 700,238

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	70%	9%	5%	14%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	72%	28%
New District	58%	41%
Change	-14%	+13%

New York 18 extends into the Bronx to pick up Representative Engel's neighborhood of Fairport goes north through Yonkers into Westchester and Putnam counties. The District crosses the Hudson over I-87, and takes the Republican portions of Rockland and Orange County.

Engel's district takes a hit in order to strengthen Representative Hall. Obama's percentage in the district drops to 58%, which still should be a safe seat for a Democrat.

NY 19 Current Incumbent – None

Population – 700,409

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	86%	6%	2%	3%

	Obama	McCain
Old District*	56%	43%
New District	56%	43%
Change	+0%	-0%

* Percentage for Representative Maffei's current district
Percentage for NY 29 = Obama 48%, McCain 50%

This configuration of upstate New York is necessary to preserve a 27-1 delegation. With Eric Massa's home in Corning in Southeastern Steuben County, the possible routes are to go north to Rochester, north and east to Ithica and Syracuse, or west towards Buffalo. None of these options make much sense and damage the possibilities of creating a Democratic performing district for Representative Arcuri's Utica based district because of the need to add population to NY 22 (or Maffei's Syracuse based district).

1) North to Rochester/Syracuse. This route is problematic for the creation of a sensible (to the eye) district for Representative Arcuri. Since in this formulation, his district spans I-90 and dives south to pick up Ithaca, any finger north puts pressure on Arcuri's district to ensure contiguity. (Also see MattTX2's entry for a good explanation of why going North does not work).

2) West to Buffalo. This route is more logical than going North, but has the effect of making NY 26 an eyesore, when it is possible to create a compact Republican performing district in Western New York and safer Democratic districts throughout upstate New York.

Instead, what I did was to create a district spanning I-90 from Syracuse to Rochester and Democratic portions of Ontario county, which is similar to the existing NY 25. In this district, Obama received 55% of the vote. As I suggested in the intro, 55% is really the safest magic number, with 7 Republicans representing districts 55% plus. Of those 7 Republicans, one Cao won because of scandal, two are in Illinois (where Obama is from), and one is a state institution (Castle). For me, the only head scratchers are the two Pennsylvania districts and WA-8 (but that is a different story).

To sum up, NY-19 is a very safe Democratic district and follows much of the current NY 25, even if it does not contain Representative Massa's (or Representative Maffei's) current residence. This does not pose a Constitutional problem, but long-term, is a relatively compact district that should safely elect a Democrat to Congress. In addition, if Massa is not able to win reelection in 2010 (rated lean Democrat by CQ; Kerry 42%, Gore 43%), the issue then becomes moot. However, since that is not part of the conditions of this contest, I choose to create a compact district between Rochester and Syracuse and elsewhere in upstate New York that are more consistently Democratic performing.

NY 20 Current Incumbent – Hall

Population – 700,079

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	74%	10%	3%	12%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	51%	48%
New District	55%	44%
Change	+4%	-4%

Representative Hall's district, like most of the swing districts in upstate New York is strengthened. The district stretches from the northern portion of Weschester County (including Yorktown and New Castle) to a small portion of Ulster County and includes the Democratic parts of Rockland County and Orange County.

The district becomes a safe seat for Representative Hall, with Obama's percentage at 55%.

As an aside, I think this district looks like a M.U.S.C.L.E. Man, with its head in Ulster County, two arms going from Orange County to Dutchess County, and its two legs stretching into Ramapo and Yorktown and New Castle.

NY 21 Current Incumbent – Tonko

Population – 700,765

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	89%	6%	2%	3%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	58%	40%
New District	56%	42%
Change	+2%	-2%

This Albany-centered district becomes less Democratic to shore up Representative Arcuri's seat, but the district should remain a safe seat for Representative Tonko.

In the Capitol Region area, the district loses Schenectady and gains Saratoga. Outside of the region, the district takes in Republican-leaning portions of Schohare and Greene counties, and Republican areas of Delaware and Ostego counties. Representative Tonko's residence in Amsterdam remains in the district.

NY 22 Current Incumbent – Hinchey/Massa

Population – 700,478

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	88%	5%	2%	4%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	59%	39%
New District	55%	44%
Change	-4%	+5%

This district is drawn for Represenative Hinchey, but would be a good district for Representative Massa should Hinchey (72) retire.

The district stretches along the Southern border of New York from Hinchey's home town of Hurley to Corning in Steuben County. The district also encompasses the Southern portions of Tompkins and Cortland counties and, in the East, the City of Poughkeepsie. The performance of the district does drop to 55% – staying above the potentially competitive line.

NY 23 Current Incumbent – Murphy/Owens

Population – 700,469

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	93%	3%	1%	2%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	51%	48%
New District	53%	45%
Change	+2%	-3%

New York 23 takes in many of the counties in the Adirondack Mountains in upstate New York and then follows the Vermont/Massachusetts border into Dutchess County. 

This district contains most of the current NY 20 and portions of the current NY 23 and 24, but still raises Obama's percentage from 51% to 53%. Most of the increase is due to losing Greene and Delaware counties, in favor of more reliable Democratic Franklin and Clinton counties in the North.

Both Murphy and Owens reside in this district, but this is necessary to create safer districts across the State.

NY 24 Current Incumbent – Maffei

Population – 700,386

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	91%	4%	1%	2%

	Obama	McCain
Old District*	52%	47%
New District	55%	43%
Change	+3%	-4%

* Percentage is for the current NY 23
Percentage for the current NY 25: 56% Obama, 43% McCain

Instead of going east from Syracuse, as Maffei's current district does, this district goes North, picking up large portions of the current NY 23 (Oswego, Lewis, Jefferson, and St Lawrence Counties). This district is Syracuse based, both in population and possess a shared community of interest, with most of the district in the Syracuse TV market (or Watertown market, which overlaps with Syracuse anyway).

This configuration does suggest a swing, but increasingly Democratic district. Obama did get 55% in 2008, but it may have barely gone for Bush in 2004. Perot did well in this district in 92, probably getting close to 25-26% of the vote (compared to 16% in New York and 19% nationwide).

NY 25 Current Incumbent – Arcuri

Population – 700,483

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	87%	7%	2%	3%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	50%	48%
New District	54%	44%
Change	+4%	-4%

District 25 becomes an octopus looking district that stretches from Democratic Schenectady to Democratic Syracuse and Ithaca in the east. The head of the octopus is Representative Arcuri's home county of Oneida. The district also picks up portions of Syracuse. Despite the uglish looking nature of the district, the district gains 4% for Obama from 2008.

The district contains all of Schenectady, Oneida, and Madison counties, as well as portions of Montgomery, Schoharie, Otsego, Cortland, Tompkins, and Canondaga counties.

NY 26 Current Incumbent – Lee

Population – 699,996

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	94%	2%	1%	1%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	46%	52%
New District	44%	55%
Change	-2%	+3%

With this map, Representative Lee is the safest Republican in any of the New England states. This NY 26 takes in his home precinct of Clarence 22 in Erie County, and encompasses most of the Republican leaning counties in Western NY as well as Republican-leaning areas in Western Monroe county. The district is comprised of all of Genessee, Wyoming, Livingston, Yates, Schuyler, Allegany, Cattaraugus, and Chautauqua counties, most of Stuben and the Republican areas of Ontario counties.

NY 27 Current Incumbent – Higgens

Population – 700,487

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	81%	14%	2%	2%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	54%	44%
New District	57%	41%
Change	+3%	-3%

In creating a Republican performing district for Lee, NY 27 is the most immediate beneficiary. NY 27 now is an entirely Erie County district, with the exception of the town of Newstead and parts of Clarence in the Northeast corner (NY 26) and the North and West portions of Buffalo (NY 28).

NY 28 Current Incumbent – Slaughter

Population – 699,977

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	79%	12%	1%	6%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	68%	30%
New District	57%	41%
Change	-11%	+12%

Representative Slaugher's district stays similar in form to her existing district, but includes all of Niagara and Ontario counties and a large portion of Monroe County. The district does include most of Rochester. The Obama performance in the district drops, from 68% to 57%, but a Democrat should remain safe here.

Conclusion

I am proud of the map. Although not every Democratic incumbent may like the map, at least 24 of the 27 current Democratic incumbents will be very safe in every single election. Of the Democratic incumbents, every district gave Obama at least 53% of the vote. The only remaining potential swing districts are NY 1, NY 2, NY 4, NY 23, and NY 25. Of these districts, NY 23 and NY 25 are significantly safer than before, while NY 1, NY 2, and NY 4 are in Democratic leaning areas of Long Island (NY 4 has a significant presence in New York City as well).

I believe that preserving County and City lines are important to the districting process. Communities of interest should not be broken up whenever possible, and I tried to keep towns intact, especially in upstate New York.

To supporters of Representative Massa, I expect that he will succeed Representative Hinchey when he retires.

As has been thoroughly discussed in other diaries, New York is likely to lose one House seat in the 2010 census. And given the population trends, the district likely to disappear will be upstate. This presents a problem for Democrats, who now control all but one seat there. If the Democrats keep their monopoly on state government in 2011, they will need to make some uncomfortable compromises: unless a seat is somehow removed from downstate, they will either have to leave one incumbent Democrat without a seat to run in or weaken all upstate Democrats in order to remove Chris Lee. Keeping in mind the pitfalls of the “Dummymander” (PDF), I have made the following choices:

1. To “pair” two upstate Democrats in one seat;

2. To ensure that all downstate seats are safe for current or future Democratic incumbents, including the ones that are not currently safe;

3. To give all but one upstate upstate Democrat a familiar seat that s/he can win;

4. To the extent possible, pack upstate Republican voters in Chris Lee’s seat; and

5. To comply with all contest requirements.

Follow me below the fold for maps, data, and discussion. . .

As a preliminary matter, I will refrain from “hiding the ball” and share overview maps; one for upstate, and another for downstate. In the city especially, districts can be difficult to make out, but I will attempt to clarify below.

Upstate Overview:

Downstate Overview:

In general, my discussion will move from west to east, and from upstate to downstate. By no coincidence, this means that higher-numbered districts will be discussed first. We begin, therefore, with western and central New York.

District	Population	Black%	Hispanic%	Asian%	Obama Votes	McCain Votes	Obama%	McCain%	Swing From 2008 Map
28	699,770	13%	5%	NA	191,081	130,799	59%	40%	R+20%
27	699,850	15%	4%	1%	192,759	123,020	60%	38%	D+12%
26	700,982	3%	2%	1%	146,555	172,357	45%	53%	R+2%
25	699,439	5%	2%	2%	187,103	154,111	54%	44%	R+3%
24	700,615	3%	2%	2%	158,656	136,049	53%	45%	D+5%
22	700,635	4%	3%	2%	174,645	147,498	53%	45%	R+12%

Who loses?

Eric Massa currently represents NY-29. In a map with 28 districts, there can obviously no longer be one numbered 29, but by no coincidence, on my map there is also no corresponding district. Massa’s Corning home is now in NY-22, which reaches from  the NYC suburbs all the way north to Monroe county and the Rochester suburbs. Maurice Hinchey continues to live in NY-22, and retains most of his political base. However Ithaca is removed and given to NY-24 to strengthen Michael Arcuri. Thus Massa and Hinchey are the two Democratic incumbents I have chosen to pair. My best guess is that Hinchey would retire rather than face this map. I expect that Massa would fare well here. In any case, one of the two must go. For population equity, and (again) to strengthen Arcuri, Dan Maffei’s NY-25 (Syracuse, Wayne, Monroe) is three points more Republican than before. This was one of the more frustrating aspects of my map. However, the district is substantially as it was before, Maffei retains his Syracuse base.

What remains?

From a thousand miles away, it looks as though I have retained the much-derieded “earmuff” district (i.e. NY-28). However, it is substantially different from before. Louise Slaughter retains most of Rochester (i.e. her base) and Niagara falls, but gives up her half of Buffalo. This is sufficient to cause a 20% Republican swing in NY-28. But Neither Slaughter nor her successors should worry: Obama still won the new district 59/40%. In return, Brian Higgins’s NY-27 picks up the rest of Buffalo, and his district swings 12% more Democratic, making it a safe seat. Chris Lee’s NY-26 (Erie, Wyoming, Allegany, Monroe) expands substantially, picking up all of the nasty bits and becoming two points more Republican. I could have made Lee’s district even more Republican, but this would have required (a) touch-point contiguity (not allowed in this contest), or (b) substantially reconfiguring NY-25, NY-24, and NY-23. I considered option (b), but decided against it mainly because I thought there was real value in leaving the cores of existing districts intact. I believe the incumbents would agree. Finally in this region, NY-24. Michael Arcuri had a close call here in 2008. So he gets a district that is 5% more Democratic. To provide for this, I removed the most Republican precincts to the east and added  Ithaca. I would not call the 24th safe, but for Arcuri it should be substantially improved.

We proceed to eastern Upstate:

District	Population	Black%	Hispanic%	Asian%	Obama Votes	McCain Votes	Obama%	McCain%	Swing From 2008 Map
23	699,639	4%	2%	1%	146,382	125,538	53%	45%	D+3%
21	699,912	6%	3%	2%	183,489	140,360	56%	43%	R+5%
20	700,285	4%	3%	1%	176,803	149,128	53%	45%	D+5%

(Note that for the sake of space, I will not reproduce images from above).

Who loses?

Paul Tonko’s NY-21 (Albany, Schenectady, Montgomery) becomes 5 points more Republican. However, at 56/43 Obama, it is still reasonably comfortable for him. And in the event, he retains almost all of his former territory. Suffice to say that if Democrats are having trouble in this district, they are likely losing the House of Representatives.

What Remains?

NY-23 (Jefferson, St. Lawrence, Clinton) becomes 3 points more Democratic, and NY-20 (Saratoga, Dutchess) swings 5 points D. Both land at 53/45 Obama. Bill Owens and Scott Murphy both won their special elections in districts that were substantially the same, except more Republican (the 23rd also picks up some Syracuse precincts). If Owens and Murphy cannot win in these districts as I have strengthened them, then one or both should be sacrificed in redistricting. In that respect, 2010 should be revelatory.

The march south continues with a look at NYC’s northern suburbs:

District	Population	Black%	Hispanic%	Asian%	Obama Votes	McCain Votes	Obama%	McCain%	Swing From 2008 Map
19	700418	7%	10%	2%	170,996	139,646	54%	45%	D+6%
18	700,555	10%	15%	4%	165,531	118,461	58%	41%	R+7%
17	700,144	27%	18%	4%	175,408	80,686	68%	31%	R+7%

Who loses?

NY-18 takes the greatest hit here, becoming 7 points more Republican, and even reaching down into Long Island. But Nita Lowey has very little to be concerned about. Her Westchester base, though reduced by being parceled out to several surrounding districts, is largely intact. And at 58/41 Obama, it is difficult to imagine a serious Republican challenge. As above, if there’s a tidal wave here, NY-18 is not the first district Dems will need to worry about.

What Remains?

John Hall’s NY-19 (Putnam, Dutchess, Westchester) gets the biggest boost, becoming 6 points more Democratic. It’s probably fair to say that Sue Kelly is out of the running for good. And because the core of Hall’s existing district is retained, he won’t need to worry about unfamiliar and hostile territory. NY-17 does take on some more hostile territory in Sullivan county, but at 68% Obama, Eliot Engel should not lose much sleep.

Finally, we protect Michael E. McMahon and make Peter King walk the plank. Into the city!

District	Population	Black%	Hispanic%	Asian%	Obama Votes	McCain Votes	Obama%	McCain%	Swing from 2008 Map
16	701,167	30%	63%	2%	160,961	8821	95%	5%	0
15	699,479	31%	50%	3%	218,488	13,982	93%	6%	0
14	700,439	6%	14%	13%	217,459	54,510	79%	20%	D+2%
13	700,540	9%	13%	12%	108,539	85,063	56%	44%	D+14%
12	700,623	12%	49%	10%	168,574	23,627	87%	12%	D+2%
9	699,725	8%	21%	18%	130,195	61,300	68%	32%	D+25%
8	700,774	3%	10%	10%	192,868	84,698	69%	30%	R+9%
7	701,294	14%	40%	14%	141,199	39,762	78%	22%	R+3%
5	699,981	4%	22%	23%	135,473	86,728	61%	39%	R+5%

The City, Continued:

District	Population	Black%	Hispanic%	Asian%	Obama Votes	McCain Votes	Obama%	McCain%	Swing From 2008 Map
11	700,323	50%	10%	6%	166,981	39,649	80%	19%	R+21%
10	700,640	50%	10%	2%	197,163	61,690	76%	24%	R+30%
6	701,002	51%	13%	4%	206,280	55,143	79%	21%	R+20%
3	700,343	16%	12%	4%	168,982	112,455	60%	40%	D+25%
4	700,408	17%	12%	6%	191,113	130,871	59%	40%	D+2%
2	700,451	9%	14%	3%	167,660	132,736	56%	44%	R+1%
1	699,901	4%	8%	2%	163,358	144,040	53%	47%	D+2%

(Note: sorry about the strange table format just above.)

Everything is tied together to some degree here, so I will shift my categorization from above.

Without a doubt, Peter King (NY-3) is the biggest loser. His new district, if you can cal it that, is the purple one that sprawls over my three downstate images from Long Island into Brooklyn. NY-3 is now a 60% Obama district, and probably out of reach for the Republicans (that makes this a 27-1 map). So how did I do it? In a nutshell, I made him walk the plank.

First, I protected the existing white Democrats downstate. Tim Bishop’s NY-1 (Suffolk,The Hamptons) and Carol McCarthy’s NY-4 (Nassau, Hempstead)  both reach out over Long Island Sound into Westchester, but are otherwise substantially the same as before. Gary Ackerman’s NY-5 (Great Neck) is barely changed from before. NY-9 (Queens) is quite strengthened. Whites are now just a plurality, but Weiner keeps his home base, so he should be safe. I made some changes around the edges of NY-2 (Suffolk, Plainview), but nothing that should phase Steve Israel.

Keeping in mind my goal of not disturbing the Democratic incumbents, I at first thought that it might not be possible to sufficiently weaken NY-3 with what was left, considering the accommodations needed for VRA districts. With touch-point contiguity, it would have been a fairly quick job, but without that I had to take some care. The problem is that there are a number of contiguous Nassau and Suffolk precincts that are very white and very Republican. (i.e., King’s base). They would have to be parceled out among the VRA districts, but how? First, NY-11 picks up all of the Republican territory possible in Brooklyn, becoming 21% more Republican. But Yvette Clarke retains here home base and her black majority, so she’s in no trouble.

Now the fun part. NY-10 is still based in Brooklyn and majority black. But it is a whopping 30% more Republican now. How? It reaches across Jamaica Bay into Nassau and Suffolk (I like to think of this as the Republican ferry). Towns is still safe, but King is sunk. Most of the rest of former NY-3’s territory is vacuumed into Greg Meeks’s NY-6 (still black majority and based in Queens, but now reaching accross Nassau to touch Suffolk). NY-3 is thus drawn towards Brooklyn, and more Democrats.

I deal with Staten Island in a similar way. Nadler’s NY-8 retains the Upper West Side (and my present apartment), and hugs a shipping lane near New Jersey to  Raritan Bay and the southern tip of Staten Island. Lots of Republican precincts there go to NY-8, but as you can see from the chart above, Nadler is in no trouble (he also retains his Republican Brooklyn precincts, but he never had trouble there before, so far as I know). NY-13 gets a big boost, taking on much more of Brooklyn. But it’s not so mangled that Staten Islanders are likely to take out blame on Michael McMahon, who now has a solid Obama district.

Wrapping up, NY-14 (the Upper East Side) is much the same, as is NY-12 (Queens, Brooklyn), so Maloney and Velázquez should be happy. In the rest of the city, my no-change-broken-record continues. Crowley’s 7th (Parkchester, Jackson Heights) is sitting pretty. Rangel’s NY-15 is now about 50% Hispanic, but that is because of demographic changes in Harlem, not my fiddling. Serrano’s ultra-Bronx 16th is as it was, and retains the required Hispanic supermajority. All should be pleased with their very familiar districts.

The political trends were in my mind as I drew this map, and to be honest I am still uncomfortable with upstate. But I think there are at least a few solid districts up there, and even if Republicans make gains, they will not be riding back to the majority on this map on the basis of New York wins.