Month: January 2010

One of the big question marks left, as the House landscape is starting to solidify, is whether long-time Democratic Rep. Rick Boucher would have to face Republican state Del. Terry Kilgore in November. We have our answer today… no, he won’t.

Terry Kilgore (R), a member of Virginia’s House of Delegates, told The Washington Post Thursday that family considerations and his seniority in Richmond influenced his decision.

“I’m doing more for southwest Virginia in Richmond than I ever could in Congress,” said Kilgore, who was first elected in 1993 to the Republican-controlled state House.

Kilgore (the brother of the former AG and gubernatorial candidate) was the one Republican who seemed to have the capacity to turn this otherwise-pretty-safe race into a precarious contest. Getting him to run would have been a major recruiting score for the NRCC, as the “Fighting Ninth,” in coal country in southwestern Virginia, is a historically Democratic area that has moved sharply toward the Republicans at the presidential level, but one where the GOP hasn’t had the talent available to translate that shift downballot. (In fact, no Republican at all has filed yet to run here in 2010.) Without Kilgore around, Boucher can breathe much easier, and the DCCC has one less hole in the dike to plug with money.

RaceTracker Wiki: VA-09

Having flamed out of his gubernatorial bid in the face of AG Tom Corbett’s dominance of the Republican primary field, Jim Gerlach‘s going back to his day job:

Less than 24 hours after Rep. Jim Gerlach (Pa.) dropped his gubernatorial bid, the four-term Republican will announce Friday that he will run for re-election to the House instead.

According to a source familiar with Gerlach’s decision, the Congressman is expected to announce he will run for re-election at noon Friday. The same source also confirmed that Gerlach will almost immediately receive the backing of the National Republican Congressional Committee.

This certainly scrambles the PA-06 calculus, especially with the NRCC playing favorites. As we reported yesterday, state Rep. Curt Schroder isn’t getting out (at least not yet) from the Republican primary — and who knows, maybe he can make some hay out of Gerlach’s dithering. Look for some winnowing among the various lesser Republicans in the field, though, and possibly even rich guy Steven Welch, who may not want to throw good money after bad. (UPDATE: Welch sounds like he’s staying in, too.)

On the Dem side, Doug Pike and Manan Trivedi say they’re staying in, too… although this probably diminishes their chances in November (though between the district’s Democratic lean and a lot of ammunition to be had from Gerlach’s vacillations, Gerlach still has to be seen as the GOP’s second-most-vulnerable incumbent).

RaceTracker Wiki: PA-06

First days I was try to down the maps, but I have much trouble until the last change in the application what help me very much.

The philosophy for my model is so easy. If you need more democratic votes for make more democratic the districts, you must go where they are, you must go to New York City. That gives us a linear model what seems a rainbow for the redistricting.

My model try to find the limits, and I can draw a map with very much 59% Obama districts (D+7) but not all, I need down for some districts to 58% Obama (D+6). The first limit what stop me making more democratic New York districts is the limit of box in the Westchester County for can access with more districts to the area of New York City. The second limit would be the VRA conditions.

For make more compact the districts, but without lose the linear model, you only need down more districts to 58% Obama.

IMAGES:

DETAILS:

Only E Massa change his district number. He pass from 29th to 26th. All other democratis incumbents keep his number district.

P King and C Lee, the republican incumbents lose their districts.

Sometimes the areas where lives the incumbents are excessively big. I try to include all the areas in their districts, but for the 2nd, 8th, 14th and 15th districts I need to take some parts for other districts. Knowing exactly where live the incumbents would not be difficult to leave they in their districts.

I don’t include McCain results because i can not see the end of the line of results. The line get cut without pass to a second line.

District 01:

– Incumbent: T Bishop

– Dark blue in Long Island.

– Population: 706,022 with deviation of +5,689

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 69%; Bl 11%; Hi 16%; As 2%.

District 02:

– Incumbent: S Israel

– Dark green in Long Island, from Nassau until Suffolk.

– Population: 706,389 with deviation of +6,056

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 68%; Bl 14%; Hi 12%; As 4%.

District 03:

– Incumbent: vacant

– Purple in western New York, linear district from Chautauqua until Manhattan.

– Population: 698,741 with deviation of -1,592

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 62%; Bl 7%; Hi 27%; As 2%.

District 04:

– Incumbent: C McCarthy and maybe P King (R)

– Red in Long Island, linear district from Queens until Suffolk.

– Population: 707,202 with deviation of +6,887

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 54%; Bl 15%; Hi 15%; As 9%.

District 05:

– Incumbent: G Ackerman

– Dark yellow in Long Island, from Queens until Nassau.

– Population: 704,967 with deviation of +4,634

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 52%; Bl 7%; Hi 14%; As 24%.

District 06:

– Incumbent: G Meeks

– Dark greenish blue in Long Island, from Brooklin until Nassau.

– Population: 694,093 with deviation of -6,240

– 2008 elections: 79% Obama D+27.

– Racially: Wh 32%; Bl 50%; Hi 10%; As 5%. VRA district

District 07:

– Incumbent: J Crowley

– Gray in New York City, from Brooklin until Queens.

– Population: 696,707 with deviation of -3,626

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 51; Bl 3%; Hi 24%; As 18%.

District 08:

– Incumbent: J Nadler

– Light purplish blue in western New York, linear district from Erie until Manhattan (Upper West Side).

– Population: 706,893 with deviation of +6,350

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 69%; Bl 11%; Hi 16%; As 2%.

District 09:

– Incumbent: A Weiner

– Light tuquoise in Long Island, from Queens until Suffolk.

– Population: 694,038 with deviation of -6,295

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 61%; Bl 10%; Hi 18%; As 8%.

District 10:

– Incumbent: E Towns

– Dark pink in New York City, Brooklin.

– Population: 693,891 with deviation of -6,442

– 2008 elections: 82% Obama D+30.

– Racially: Wh 26%; Bl 50%; Hi 13%; As 8%. VRA district

District 11:

– Incumbent: Y Clarke

– Light green in New York City, Brooklin.

– Population: 693,935 with deviation of -6,398

– 2008 elections: 85% Obama D+33.

– Racially: Wh 31%; Bl 50%; Hi 11%; As 4%. VRA district

District 12:

– Incumbent: N Velázquez

– Blue in New York City, from Brooklin until Queens.

– Population: 695,534 with deviation of -4,799

– 2008 elections: 84% Obama D+32.

– Racially: Wh 29%; Bl 11%; Hi 48%; As 8%. VRA district

District 13:

– Incumbent: M McMahon

– Salmon in New York City, from Staten Island until Manhattan by water link.

– Population: 706,942 with deviation of +6,609

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 65%; Bl 8%; Hi 13%; As 11%.

District 14:

– Incumbent: C Maloney

– Dark brownish green in New York City and Long Island, from Manhattan until north Suffolk.

– Population: 706,712 with deviation of +6,379

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 81%; Bl 3%; Hi 7%; As 6%.

District 15:

– Incumbent: C Rangel

– Orange in New York City, from Manhattan until Queens.

– Population: 695,108 with deviation of -5,225

– 2008 elections: 86% Obama D+34.

– Racially: Wh 44%; Bl 14%; Hi 27%; As 12%. VRA district

District 16:

– Incumbent: J Serrano

– Green in New York City, Bronx.

– Population: 693,589 with deviation of -6,744

– 2008 elections: 95% Obama D+43.

– Racially: Wh 3%; Bl 32%; Hi 61%; As 1%. VRA district

District 17:

– Incumbent: E Engel

– Dark purplish blue in the south of western New York, linear district neighboring Pennsylvania, from Chautauqua until Manhattan (Upper West Side).

– Population: 706,897 with deviation of +6,564

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 80%; Bl 5%; Hi 10%; As 3%.

District 18:

– Incumbent: N Lowey

– Light Yellow in northern New York, from Dutchess until Queens.

– Population: 695,784 with deviation of -4,549

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 68%; Bl 6%; Hi 16%; As 6%.

District 19:

– Incumbent: J Hall

– Green in northern New York, from Saratoga and Washington until Putnam.

– Population: 693,403 with deviation of -6,930

– 2008 elections: 58% Obama D+6.

– Racially: Wh 68%; Bl 14%; Hi 12%; As 4%.

District 20:

– Incumbent: S Murphy

– Light pink in northern New York, from Jefferson until the Bronx.

– Population: 703,781 with deviation of +3,448

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 70%; Bl 19%; Hi 7%; As 2%.

District 21:

– Incumbent: P Tonko

– Dark red in northern New York, linear district from Oswego until the Bronx.

– Population: 706,364 with deviation of +6,031

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 67%; Bl 14%; Hi 13%; As 3%.

District 22:

– Incumbent: M Hinckey

– Brown in western New York, linear district from Erie until the Bronx.

– Population: 706,466 with deviation of +6,133

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 65%; Bl 9%; Hi 20%; As 3%.

District 23:

– Incumbent: W Owens

– Ligth turquoise in northern New York, from Syracuse until Albany.

– Population: 693,837 with deviation of -6,496

– 2008 elections: 58% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 90%; Bl 5%; Hi 2%; As 1%.

District 24:

– Incumbent: M Arcuri

– Dark purple in western New York, linear district from Ontario until Manhattan.

– Population: 695,810 with deviation of -4,523

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 72%; Bl 16%; Hi 8%; As 2%.

District 25:

– Incumbent: D Maffei

– Pink in western New York, from Buffalo until Onondaga.

– Population: 693,428 with deviation of -6,905

– 2008 elections: 58% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 87%; Bl 8%; Hi 2%; As 2%.

District 26:

– Incumbent: E Massa

– Dark gray in western New York, from Steuben until Rockland.

– Population: 700,655 with deviation of +322

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 80%; Bl 7%; Hi 7%; As 3%.

District 27:

– Incumbent: B Higgins and C Lee (R)

– Green in western New York, from Erie until Monroe.

– Population: 693,889 with deviation of -6,444

– 2008 elections: 58% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 78%; Bl 14%; Hi 4%; As 1%.

District 28:

– Incumbent: L Slaughter

– Light purple in western New York, Monroe.

– Population: 693,567 with deviation of -6,766

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 77%; Bl 13%; Hi 5%; As 2%.

They are four districts in 58% Obama. You can increase three of they until 59% Obama, but the fourth down until 55-56% Obama (D+3 or D+4) because can not access to the New York City area.

Well, sure republicans will hate this model, and maybe democrats smile. New York gives the chance of a good redistricting for democrats.

An omnibus of some of the early-bird fundraising numbers we’ve seen reported so far:

AR-02:

     Tim Griffin (R): >$250K raised

FL-08:

     Armando Gutierrez (R): $210K raised + $100K personal donation; $300K CoH

KY-Gov:

     Steve Beshear (D-inc): $542K raised; $784K CoH

NC-Sen:

     Cal Cunningham (D): $320K raised (since December)

ND-AL:

     Earl Pomeroy (D-inc): $360K raised; $1.4M CoH

NH-Sen:

     Bill Binnie (R): $225K raised + $1.26M loan

NH-02:

     Ann McLane Kuster (D): $206K raised; $550K CoH

NY-01:

     Randy Altschuler (R): $185K raised + $450K loan; $776K CoH

     George Demos (R): $300K raised; $275K CoH

PA-07:

     Pat Meehan (R): $580K raised

     Bryan Lentz (D): ~$300K raised; $450K CoH

TN-08:

     Roy Herron (D): >$425K raised + $250K loan; $675K CoH

     Steve Fincher (R): $320K raised

VA-05:

     Laurence Verga (R): $11K raised + $227K loans/personal donations, $218K CoH

VA-11:

     Keith Fimian (R): $500K CoH

WI-Gov:

     Tom Barrett (D): $750K raised; $1.5M CoH

Upstate New York has trended Democratic quickly over the past decade. Therefore I’m spreading Democratic support thin over Upstate to make only Democratic districts.

However Long Island has trended Republican at the presidential level since 2000. I’m keeping Peter King’s district Republican in order to keep the other Long Island districts safe Democratic. If Long Island becomes more Democratic then Peter King’s district becomes a tossup when he retires. If Long Island becomes more Republican then at least the Democrats on the Island remain safe.

I did not split a single municipality north of Westchester and Rockland Counties except for Buffalo.

I’m sorry the 11th and the 16th are almost the same color.



Please don’t read anything into the colors assigned to the 13th and 14th districts. Those are the colors that automatically get assigned to those numbers, nothing more.

1st District Tim Bishop (D)

Hamptons, Brookhaven

New 54%O 46%M Old 52%O 48%M

82% White, 5% Black, 9% Hispanic, 3% Asian

I removed Smithtown and added some Hispanic parts of Islip to make it more Democratic.

2nd District Steve Israel (D)

Huntington, Babylon, Islip

New 56%O 44%M Old 56%O 43%M

73% White, 9% Black, 13% Hispanic, 3% Asian

These days the south shore of Suffolk County is less Republican then the north shore, so I removed the north shore and added more south shore. I hope I kept Steve Israel’s home in the district. The most Democratic parts of Huntington are still in the 2nd.

3rd District Peter King (R)

Oyster Bay, Glen Cove, Smithtown

New 48%O 52%M Old 47%O 52%M

88% White, 2% Black, 6% Hispanic, 3% Asian

I tried to find the right balance between making the 3rd possible for a Democrat to win when Peter King retires, while keeping the 1st and 2nd as safe as possible for the Democrats.

4th District Carolyn McCarthy (D)

most of Hempstead, some North Hempstead

New 58%O 42%M Old 58%O 41%M

63% White, 17% Black, 13% Hispanic, 5% Asian

This is the only Long Island district with a sizable minority population, almost enough for a black or Hispanic candidate to have a chance. The northern protrusion is so that the 5th district reaches Gary Ackerman’s home in Mineola. The eastern protrusions are to take either minority or extremely Republican parts out of the 3rd.

5th District Gary Ackerman (D)

Flushing, Floral Park, North Hempstead

New 62%O 37%M Old 63%O 36%M

51% White, 5% Black, 14% Hispanic, 27% Asian

The loss of a district Upstate can already be felt in the 5th district. It has more Queens and less Nassau than before. Pretty soon it will be possible to make an Asian majority district in Queens.

6th District Gregory Meeks (D)

Jamaica, Ozone Park, Far Rockaway

New 86%O 14%M Old 89%O 11%M

17% White, 50.2% Black, 17% Hispanic, 7% Asian

It’s still the black district in southern Queens. It expanded west to take some Republican territory from Anthony Weiner.

7th District Anthony Weiner (D) (Old 9th)

Brighton Beach, Sheepshead Bay, Ridgewood, Forest Hills

New 61%O 38%M Old 55%O 44%M

55% White, 7% Black, 21% Hispanic, 14% Asian

It still has the same 2 far-apart population centers. It loses its Hasidic Jews and gains more of Queens.

8th District Edolphus Towns (D) (Old 10th)

Williamsburg, Bedford Stuyvesant, East New York, Canarsie

New 94%O 6%M Old 91%O 9%M

8% White, 66% Black, 20% Hispanic, 2% Asian

Probably the blackest district in America. Yet it borders another black-majority district and is only block away from another black-majority district.

9th District Yvette Clarke (D) (Old 11th)

Park Slope, Crown Heights, Flatbush

New 91%O 9%M Old 91%O 9%M

27% White, 51% Black, 14% Hispanic, 5% Asian

I removed the panhandle from the Towns district so it would be more compact. As a result the Clarke district barely has a black majority. But it’s good enough.

10th District Michael McMahon (D) (Old 13th)

Staten Island, southwest Brooklyn

New 51%O 48%M Old 49%O 51%M

68% White, 9% Black, 12% Hispanic, 9% Asian

The border between the 10th and 12th districts is the only ugly political gerrymander in this map. (The 11th is an ugly racial gerrymander.) The Brooklyn part of this district gave Obama 62% of the vote. Also keep in mind that a Staten Island Democrat has at least a 5 point advantage here over a presidential Democrat, so Michael McMahon should be safe.

11th District Nydia Velazquez (D) (Old 12th)

Sunset Park, Lower East Side, Chinatown, Bushwick, South Corona

New 85%O 14%M Old 86%O 13%M

14% White, 7% Black, 54% Hispanic, 22% Asian

The existing 12th is a Hispanic district, and it also seems to be an Asian district, so I added more of both groups, and extended it into north Queens.

12th District Jerrold Nadler (D) (Old 8th)

Upper West Side, west Midtown, Lower West Side, extremely Republican parts of Brooklyn

New 69%O 30%M Old 74%O 26%M

76% White, 3% Black, 9% Hispanic, 9% Asian

The extremely republican Hasidic parts of Brooklyn had to get buried somewhere. I could have buried them in the black districts but I decided it would be better for race relations to give them to a white Jewish Democrat. The Manhattan part of the district is almost completely unchanged.

13th District Carolyn Maloney (D) (Old 14th)

Upper East Side, east Midtown, Long Island City, Greenpoint

New 79%O 20%M Old 78%O 21%M

69% White, 4% Black, 13% Hispanic, 10% Asian

I added Greenpoint (northern point of Brooklyn) because Greenpoint is turning into another rich gentrified neighborhood. Besides that, it’s mostly unchanged.

14th District Charles Rangel (D) (Old 15th)

Harlem, some Upper West Side

New 93%O 6%M Old 93%O 6%M

16% White, 31% Black, 48% Hispanic, 3% Asian

Everything north of 96th street on the east side and 90th(?) street on the west side. And also Rikers Island. I decided it’s more important to make the district geographically compact (Manhattan only) than to add more black population by trading precincts with a Bronx district.

15th District Jose Serrano (D) (Old 16th)

South Bronx

New 95.0%O 4.8%M Old 94.8%O 5.0%M

2% White, 31% Black, 63% Hispanic, 2% Asian

This has the distinction of being the most Democratic district in America. I did my best to keep it that way.

16th District Joseph Crowley (D) (Old 7th)

East Bronx, Astoria

New 84%O 16%M Old 79%O 20%M

24% White, 30% Black, 35% Hispanic, 7% Asian

Renumbered 16th because it’s now a Bronx district not a Queens district (thus forcing me to renumber so many other districts). I hope it still includes Crowley’s home in Woodside, it’s hard to tell.

17th District Eliot Engel (D)

Riverdale, Mount Vernon, Ramapo

New 63%O 37%M Old 72%O 28%M

58% White, 17% Black, 18% Hispanic, 5% Asian

It’s not as Democratic as before because it loses black parts of the Bronx and gains Republican parts of Orange County.  But it’s still safe Democratic.

18th District Nita Lowey (D)

New Rochelle, White Plains, Mount Pleasant

New 61%O 39%M Old 62%O 38%M

71% White, 8% Black, 14% Hispanic, 5% Asian

The Westchester district didn’t change much.

19th District John Hall (D)

Peekskill, Middletown, Newburgh, Ploughkeepsie

New 53%O 46%M Old 51%O 48%M

78% White, 8% Black, 10% Hispanic, 2% Asian

It gets pushed further upstate. Fortunately gaining northern Orange County and Ploughkeepsie makes it more Democratic.

20th District Maurice Hinchey (D) Old 22nd

New Paltz, Woodstock, Hudson, Albany suburbs

New 55%O 44%M Old 59%O 39%M

89% White, 4% Black, 4% Hispanic, 1% Asian

This district now includes several Hudson Valley counties instead of a finger into Ithaca.

21st District Paul Tonko (D)

Albany, Troy, Schenectady

New 56%O 42%M Old 58%O 40%M

87% White, 7% Black, 3% Hispanic, 2% Asian

It still has Tonko’s home in Montgomery County and it picks up Republican territory in Fulton, Saratoga, and Rensselaer Counties.

22nd District Scott Murphy (D) Old 20th vs Bill Owens (D) Old 23rd

Watertown, Plattsburgh, Saratoga Springs

New 53%O 46%M Old 20th 51%O 48%M, Old 23rd 52%O 47%M

93% White, 3% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

All of Democratic northern rural New York gets packed into 1 district. It’s only 53% now but expect it to continue trending Democratic into the future. I decapitated Herkimer for aesthetic reasons. Unfortunately Murphy and Owens can’t both be Congressman in 2013 but I’m sure they saw this coming when they ran.

23rd District Michael Arcuri (D) Old 24th

Utica, Ithaca, Binghamton

New 54%O 45%M Old 51%O 48%M

90% White, 3% Black, 2% Hispanic, 2% Asian

Made safer by adding Ithaca and Binghamton and removing most of Oneida County.

24th District Dan Maffei (D) Old 25th

Syracuse, Rome, Oswego

New 55%O 45%M Old 56%O 43%M

88% White, 6% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

The Syracuse district buries extremely-Republican northern Oneida County. It shifted east because Western New York lost a lot of population and its districts are expanding.

25th District Eric Massa (D) Old 29th

Webster, Brighton, Corning

New 50%O 49%M Old 48%O 51%M

92% White, 3% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

This November Eric Massa will hopefully get reelected by a significant margin. This plan then makes his district more Democratic, so he will be able to keep getting reelected. The district includes most of Massa’s original district, and the rest is currently represented by Dan Maffei and Michael Arcuri. If this district becomes open then it’s a tossup, so I’m counting on Massa to keep running for reelection.

26th District Louise Slaughter (D) Old 28th

Rochester, Greece, Batavia

New 55%O 44%M Old 69%O 30%M

78% White, 14% Black, 5% Hispanic, 1% Asian

No more earmuffs! This district includes the entire city of Rochester, its suburbs to the west, and 4 rural conservative counties. Louise Slaughter’s home isn’t in the district, and drawing her in would weaken the Massa district too much. But it’s still Slaughter’s district.

27th District Chris Lee (R) Old 26th

Buffalo, Amherst, Niagara Falls

New 55%O 43%M Old 46%O 52%M

87% White, 8% Black, 2% Hispanic, 2% Asian

There’s a fine line between increasing a city’s influence by putting it in more Congressional districts, and decreasing a city’s influence by spreading it too thin over too many districts. I hope I did the former, not the latter. Chris Lee, an unremarkable Republican, will now have to face reelection in a 55% Obama district.

28th District Brian Higgins (D) Old 27th

Buffalo, Lackawanna, Olean

New 54%O 45%M Old 54%O 44%M

84% White, 10% Black, 4% Hispanic, 1% Asian

Brian Higgins gains some more black parts of Buffalo, and also gains some rural conservative counties. This makes the district as Democratic as it was before, just bigger.

Hello all. I’m very excited to participate in my first contest here at SSP. Not only that, I’m extremely excited to deal with my home state, New York. For you, I’ve redistricted New York, 27-1. I’ve seen some entries that involve a 28-0 gerrymander, which would be hypothetically nice, but probably unfeasible. To strengthen all incumbents, I’ve given every Democrat a 55% or higher Obama district, which translates to at least a D+2 or D+3 PVI for each one.  Right now, several Democratic incumbents occupy Republican PVI districts (Arcuri, Massa, Murphy, Hall, and Owens). That will change under my plan. However, unlike previous entries, I have to ax one of the districts upstate to make sure that I have a 27-1 gerrymander, and, unfortunately for the new guys, Murphy’s old district is eliminated, forcing him to enter a primary with Bill Owens. I don’t really care who wins that one, though I recognize that Murphy is a very good fundraiser and probably would win. All VRA districts are kept in tact, with Velazquez’s becoming Hispanic majority (instead of plurality).  In the future, I foresee that there will be another Hispanic majority district, mostly based in Crowley’s present district. I also want to see a majority Asian district eventually, though I realize that many Asian communities in New York have different interests.

I know that there is a strategic advantage to sending in your map later so that nobody gets any ideas, but I think it’s in all of our best interests to build the best map as possible. If you haven’t made your map yet, feel free to use some of my ideas. If you have made your map, then post it!

Here’s a summary of what I did:

-Created 27 likely/safe Democratic seats

-Created one über safe Republican district to protect Massa, Arcuri, Owens/Murphy, and, to some extent, Hinchey and Maffei.

-Kept districts relatively compact, with only four New York City/suburban districts (there are only two right now, so not much of a difference)

-Kept all cities in one district if possible

-Obeyed the VRA

-Kept populations within the allocated margins

-Made every Democratic seat relatively easy to represent (no Binghamton to Buffalo drives for Massa)

There are 3,086 people that are unaccounted for. I just couldn’t find the missing precincts; I assume they’re in New York City, though, as the unaccounted voters voted for Obama by something like 90-10. I don’t think it makes much of a difference in the larger picture, though. Also, I’m trying to figure out a way to send it to jeffmd through e-mail, as my first two tries didn’t work.

One last thing: I connect a few New York City districts with bridges-and, in one case, a ferry. I will note that in my write-up. Please enjoy!

Clean Map:

With Counties:

Long Island:

District 1 – BLUE

Incumbent: Tim Bishop (D)

Area: Part of Suffolk County (Islip, Brookhaven, Southampton)

Population: 669,859

Obama: 55%

McCain: 45%

Old District: Obama 51% McCain 48%; Kerry 49% Bush 49%

White: White: 77% Black: 6% Native: 0% Asian: 2% Hispanic: 12% Other: 2%

Notes: Bishop keeps his base in the Hamptons, while receives favorable territory in Brookhaven and Islip. These added points to his previous district-of which Obama only received about 51% of the vote-should keep Bishop safe.

District 2 – DARK GREEN

Incumbent: Steve Israel (D)

Area: Part of Suffolk County (Huntington)/Part of Nassau County

Population: 700,704

Obama: 55%

McCain: 45%

Old District: 56% McCain 43%; Kerry 53% Bush 45%

White: 75% Black: 9% Native: 0% Asian: 3% Hispanic: 10% Other: 2%

Notes: The newly minted Long Island district takes in much of Israel’s and Bishop’s old district in Eastern Suffolk. The district splits Huntington, which is Israel’s base, so Israel can elect to run in either the 2nd or the 3rd district.

District 3 – PURPLE

Incumbent:

Area: Part of Nassau County (Glen Cove)/Part of Suffolk County (Huntington)/Part of Bronx County (The Bronx)

Population: 700,178

Obama: 55%

McCain: 45%

Old District: Obama 47% McCain 52%; Kerry 47% Bush 52%

White: 73% Black: 13% Native: 0% Asian: 3% Hispanic: 9% Other: 1%

Notes: This is where King is screwed. His base in Southern Nassau is split into three districts, the 3rd, the 4th, and the 5th. I had to add part of the Bronx to strengthen the district (and for population purposes). King would have to sweep the Nassau portions to win, and I don’t think he could. Granted, this district is less Democratic than the 4th and the 5th, but I think the Democratic lean ultimately propels a Democrat to victory. Israel could also run in the neighboring 2nd, as Huntington is split between the two districts.

As for the Bronx connection, the representative can take the Throgs Neck Bridge from Queens. Though the bridge doesn’t connect the Long Island parts to the Bronx part, it will make representing both sections very manageable.

District 4 – RED

Incumbent: Carolyn McCarthy (D)/Peter King (R)

Area: Part of Nassau County (Long Beach)/Part of Queens County (Queens)

Population: 700,877

Obama: 57%

McCain: 43%

Old District: Obama 58% McCain 41%; Kerry 55% Bush 41%

White: White: 64% Black: 15% Native: 0% Asian: 8% Hispanic: 10% Other: 3%

Notes: This district takes in most of King’s base, (and his home), but tethers it to Queens to make this district pretty safe for McCarthy. Also of note, I had to add some black-majority precincts to make McCarthy safe, so Meeks has to go Brooklyn to make sure his district is VRA. Also, here is a short arm in the middle of Nassau County to take McCarthy’s home in Mineola.

District 5 – YELLOW

Incumbent: Gary Ackerman (D)

Area: Part of Nassau County/Part of Queens County (Queens)

Population: 700,542

Obama: 58%

McCain: 42%

Old District: Obama 63% McCain 36%; Obama 63% McCain 36%

White: 61% Black: 7% Native: 0% Asian: 18% Hispanic: 12% Other: 2%

Notes: Takes in Nassau, Queens along with parts of King’s base. He should continue to do fine here.

District 6 – DARK GREENISH BLUE

Incumbent: Gregory Meeks (D)

Area: Queens County (Queens)/Kings County (Brooklyn)

Population: 699,692

Obama: 87%

McCain: 13%

Old District: Obama 89% McCain 11%; Kerry 84% Bush 15%

White: 17% Black: 50% Native: 0% Asian: 9% Hispanic: 17% Other: 7%

Notes: Remains a VRA-protected district in Queens, but to help McCarthy, it is water-continuous to take in black-majority precincts in Brooklyn. Takes in some icky old Weiner precincts. Meeks can travel the Shore Parkway to go Brooklyn to his other constituents. Also has the most “Other” raced-people in the state (45,528). I have no idea what that means.

District 7 – GRAY

Incumbent: Joseph Crowley (D)

Area: Part of Bronx County (Bronx)/Part of Queens County (Queens)

Population: 700,514

Obama: 80%

McCain: 20%

Old District: Obama 79% McCain 20%: Kerry 74% Bush 24%

White: 29% Black: 19% Native: 0% Asian: 8% Hispanic: 40% Other: 4%

Notes: I didn’t change much, but now the district is even more Hispanic. Crowley would win here, and I doubt he would get a primary. However, a Hispanic Bronx Democrat should win here after he retires. He can travel on Route 678.

District 8 – DARK PURPLE

Incumbent: Jerrold Nadler (D)

Area: Part of New York County (Manhattan)/Part of Kings County (Brooklyn)

Population: 700,149

Obama: 76%

McCain: 23%

Old District: Obama 74% McCain 25%: Kerry 72% Bush 27%

White: 59% Black: 7% Native: 0% Asian: 17% Hispanic: 14% Other: 3%

Notes: Nadler loses downtown, but retains his base on the Upper West Side. He also takes in heavily Republican areas of Brooklyn, but that area is superfluous as his Manhattan parts are ridiculously Democratic. I also gave him Chinatown.

District 9 – LIGHT TURQUOISE

Incumbent: Anthony Weiner (D)

Area: Part of Kings County (Brooklyn)/Part of Queens County (Queens)

Population: 699,891

Obama: 61%

McCain: 38%

Old District: Obama 55% McCain 44%; Kerry 56% Bush 44%

White: 50% Black: 6% Native: 0% Asian: 16% Hispanic: 22% Other: 5%

Notes: I had to shore up this district, even though Weiner would be fine otherwise. It’s just that Weiner will probably run for another office some day (especially mayor), so I wanted to make sure that a moderate (probably Jewish) Republican couldn’t win here. It’s pretty gerrymandered to be a slightly majority white district. Anyway, his base is here and Weiner should win by a large margin.

District 10 – DARK PINK

Incumbent: Edolphus Towns (D)

Area: Part of Kings County (Brooklyn)

Population: 699,919

Obama: 85%

McCain: 15%

Old District: Obama 91% McCain 9%; Kerry 86% Bush 13%

White: 22% Black: 52% Native: 0% Asian: 5% Hispanic: 18% Other: 23%

Notes: Pretty much the same Brooklyn-based VRA-protected district, but it takes in icky some icky Brooklyn precincts to help Weiner.

District 11 – GREEN

Incumbent: Yvette Clarke (D)

Area: Part of Kings County (Brooklyn)

Population: 700,196

Obama: 84%

McCain: 16%

Old District: Obama 90% McCain 9%; Kerry 86% Bush 13%

White: 25% Black: 54% Native: 0% Asian: 7% Hispanic: 11% Other: 4%

Notes: Same deal as District 10.

District 12 – MEDIUM BLUE

Incumbent: Nydia Velazquez (D)

Area: Part of Kings County (Brooklyn)/Part of Queens County (Queens)

Population: 700,735

Obama: 86%

McCain: 13%

Old District: Obama 86% McCain 13%; Kerry 80% Bush 19%

White: 23% Black: 11% Native: 0% Asian: 11% Hispanic: 51% Other: 3%

Notes: A VRA-protected Hispanic district, Velazquez sheds Manhattan and takes in the Hispanic parts of Brooklyn and Queens. The district gets a somewhat big makeover to make it Hispanic-majority, but I’m sure there will be no complaints for anyone.

District 13 – TEAL

Incumbent: Michael McMahon (D)

Area: All of Richmond County (Staten Island)/Part of New York County (Manhattan)

Population: 700,676

Obama: 62%

McCain: 37%

Old District: Obama 49% McCain 51%; Kerry 45% Bush 55%

White: White: 71% Black: 8% Native: 0% Asian: 8% Hispanic: 11% Other: 2%

Notes: My Staten Island-based district is now tethered to downtown Manhattan to make the district a safe Democratic district.

District 14 DARK GREEN

Incumbent: Carolyn Maloney (D)

Area: Part of New York County (Manhattan)/Part of Kings County (Brooklyn)/Part of Queens County (Queens)

Population: 699,854

Obama: 80%

McCain: 19%

Old District: Obama 78% McCain 21%; Kerry 74% Bush 25%

White: 64% Black: 8% Native: 0% Asian: 8% Hispanic: 18% Other: 3%

Notes: My hometown district, Maloney gains parts of Brooklyn to enable Velazquez to have a Hispanic-majority district. Goes all the way up to the limits of the Upper East Side on 96th Street.

District 15 – ORANGE

Incumbent: Charlie Rangel (D)

Area: Part of New York County (Manhattan)/Part of Queens County (Queens)

Population: 700,198

Obama: 91%

McCain: 8%

Old District: Obama 93% McCain 6%; Kerry 90% Bush 9%

White: 17% Black: 27% Native: 0% Asian: 6% Hispanic: 47% Other: 3%

Notes: Rangel’s district is plurality Hispanic (and almost majority Hispanic). I would bet he wouldn’t like this district, as he could be primaried by an ambitious Hispanic legislator who would target him on ethics issues. Otherwise, it loses all parts of the Upper West Side, which never really made sense for him.

District 16 – LIGHT GREEN

Incumbent: Jose Serrano (D)

Area: Part of Bronx County (Bronx)

Population: 700,500

Obama: 95%

McCain: 5%

Old District: Obama 95% McCain 5%; Kerry 89% Bush 10%

White: 3% Black: 33% Native: 0% Asian: 2% Hispanic: 60% Other: 2%

Notes: The VRA-protected South Bronx district makes no substantive changes. This district would undoubtedly have the fewest white people in the country.

Suburbs:

District 17 – DARK BLUE

Incumbent:  Eliot Engel (D)

Area: Part of Bronx County (Bronx)/Part of Westchester County (Yonkers)/Part of Rockland County/Part of Orange County

Population: 700,056

Obama: 60%

McCain: 40%

Old District: Obama 72% McCain 28%; Kerry 67% Bush 33%

White: 61% Black: 17% Native: 0% Asian: 4% Hispanic: 16% Other: 3%

Notes: A kind of similar district to Engel’s current, the district takes in Mount Vernon, parts of Rockland, parts of Orange, and all of Yonkers. His home in the Bronx remains for a solid (but less diverse) Democratic district.

District 18 – LIGHT YELLOW

Incumbent: Nita Lowey (D)

Area: Part of Bronx County (Bronx)/Part of Westchester County (Rye, New Rochelle, Part of Peekskill)/Part of Putnam County/Part of Orange County/Part of Sullivan County/Part of Delaware County

Population: 699,983

Obama: 58%

McCain: 41%

Old District: Obama 62% McCain 38%; Kerry 58% Bush 42%

White: 76% Black: 7% Native: 0% Asian: 4% Hispanic: 11% Other: 2%

Notes: This district is pretty ugly, but it’s necessary to shore up Hall and Hinchey. It has the preexisting Westchester flavor, but it moves upstate to take in nasty Republican-leaning areas. It’s so ugly that Orange County is represented by four congresscritters. Anyway, Lowey should do well here, as her home base in Rye stays.

District 19 – WESTERN NEW YORK GREEN

Incumbent: Eric Massa (D)

Area: Part of Chemung County (Elmira)/All of Steuben County/All of Allegany County/All of Cattaraugus County/All of Chautauqua County/Part of Erie County (Buffalo)

Population: 700,415

Obama: 55%

McCain: 44%

Old District: Obama 48% McCain 50%; Kerry 42% Bush 56% (former 29th)

White: 84% Black: 11% Native: 1% Asian: 1% Hispanic: 2% Other: 1%

Notes: This is by far my favorite district that I drew. Massa takes in three of the heavily Republican Southern Tier counties (Cattaraugus, Allegany, and Steuben), while taking in moderate Chautauqua. It is also tethered to Buffalo, though, which shifts the district up in the Obama column tremendously. On the eastern side, the Democratic-leaning Elmira is taken in. This district should be safe for Massa.

District 20 – BEIGE

Incumbent: Maurice Hinchey (D)

Area: Part of Otsego County/Part of Montgomery County/Part of Schenectady County (Schenectady)/Part of Schoharie County/Part of Delaware County/All of Greene County/All of Ulster County/Part of Sullivan County/Part of Rockland County/Part of Dutchess County (Poughkeepsie)/Part of Shanango County

Population: 699,767

Obama: 56%

McCain: 42%

Old District: Obama 59% McCain 39%; Kerry 54% Bush 45% (Current 22nd)

White: 81% Black: 8% Native: 0% Asian: 2% Hispanic: 7% Other: 2%

Notes: Shoring up Hinchey while losing Ithaca and Binghamton was a struggle, yet I think I did well. The district takes in the strongly-Dem precincts in Rockland County, going up through Sullivan, taking up some of the rest of the Capital Region, including Democratic Schenectady City. His base in Ulster is still there, though, and should propel Hinchey or whatever succeeding Democrat to win.

District 21 – DARK RED

Incumbent: John Hall (D)

Area: Part of Westchester County (White Plains, Part of Peekskill)/Part of Putnam County/Part of Orange County (Newburgh)/Part of Dutchess County/All of Columbia County

Population: 700,291

Obama: 56%

McCain: 43%

Old District: Obama 51% McCain 48%; Kerry 45% Bush 54% (Current 19th)

White: 78% Black: 8% Native: 0% Asian: 2% Hispanic: 10% Other: 2%

Notes: Hall’s district gets quite the makeover, but now is solidly his. He moves upstate a little, but Dover Plains is still here. He takes in heavily Democratic White Plains in Westchester.

District 22 – BROWN

Incumbent: Paul Tonko (D)

Area: Part of Fulton County/Part of Schenectady County All of Albany County (Albany)Part of Rensselaer County/Part of Saratoga County/Part of Schoharie County

Population: 700,675

Obama: 56%

McCain: 43%

Old District: Obama 58% McCain 40%; Kerry 55% Bush 43% (Current 21st)

White: 90% Black: 5% Native: 0% Asian: 2% Hispanic: 2% Other: 1%

Notes: The Albany-based district is not as strongly Democratic as it once was, but it remains safe territory for Tonko. Schenectady is lost, as is Troy.

District 23 – UPSTATE LIGHT BLUE

Incumbent: Bill Owens (D)/Scott Murphy (D)

Area: Part of Saratoga County (Saratoga Springs)/All of Washington County/All of Essex County/All of Warren County/All of Clinton County/All of Franklin County/All of St. Lawrence County/All of Jefferson County/Part of Lewis County/Part of Oswego County/Part of Oneida County/Part of Renssalaer County (Troy)

Population: 700,814

Obama: 55%

McCain: 43%

Old District: Obama 52% McCain 47%; Kerry 47% Bush 51%

White: 92% Black: 3% Native: 0% Asian: 1% Hispanic: 2% Other: 1%

Notes: I’m tired of Blue Dogs, so I really don’t care what happens to Murphy in this district. I had to axe on upstate district, so I chose Murphy’s and drew him into this one. Here, which now has a D PVI, takes in a lot of old McHugh-territory, while shedding Lewis and Hamilton counties. Also, Saratoga Springs and Troy are added, helping boost the district by a few percentage points. The district should be fine for whoever makes it out of the primary.

District 24 – SYRACUSE PURPLE

Incumbent: Dan Maffei (D)

Area: Part of Monroe County/All of Wayne County/Part of Ontario County/Part of Cayuga County/Part of Onondaga County (Syracuse)/Part of Oswego County/Part of Oneida County

Population: 700,260

Obama: 56%

McCain: 43%

Old District: Obama 56% McCain 43%; Kerry 50% Bush 48% (Current 25th)

White: 87% Black: 6% Native: 0% Asian: 2% Hispanic: 2% Other: 2%

Notes: Maffei’s district remains the same in principle with its Syracuse base.

District 25 – ROCHESTER PINK

Incumbent: Louise Slaughter (D)

Area: Part of Monroe County (Rochester)/Part of Livingston County (Geneseo)/Part of Ontario County/Part of Yates County

Population: 700,187

Obama: 59%

McCain: 40%

Old District: Obama 68% McCain 30%; Kerry 63% Bush 36% (Current 28th)

White: 78% Black: 13% Native: 0% Asian: 2% Hispanic: 5% Other: 2%

Notes: A Monroe-centric district, Slaughter also absorbs Geneseo in Livingston, most of Ontario County, and the Obama-won precincts in Yates. Her district sheds a lot of Democratic votes (all in Buffalo), but she-or any other Rochester Democrat-would do well here. A bonus: no more earmuffs district.

District 26 – UPSTATE GRAY

Incumbent: Chris Lee (R)

Area: Part of Niagara County/Part of Erie County/All of Orleans County/All of Wyoming County/All of Genesee County/Part of Livingston County/Part of Ontario County/Part of Yates County/Part of Schuyler County/Part of Chemung County/All of Tioga County/Part of Broome County/Part of Chenango County/Part of Otsego County/Part of Oneida County/All of Herkimer County/All of Hamilton County/Part of Fulton County/Part of Montgomery County

Population: 700,225

Obama: 42%

McCain: 57%

Old District: Obama 46% McCain 52%; Kerry 43% Bush 55%

White: 95% Black: 2% Native: 0% Asian: 0% Hispanic: 2% Other: 1%

Notes: Clearly drawn to take every upstate Republican precinct, this district is beyond safe for Lee. I believe that Obama lost every single precinct in this county, except for two in lower Broome! The district is reminiscent of jeffmd’s earlier redistricting, but I do think that this is the way to shore up Democrats all across the state. Dems could hypothetically run a Blue Dog here, but that’s probably a waste of money, as the overall partisan bent strongly favors Republicans and the district is in the Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, and Capital Region media markets.

District 27 – BUFFALO LIGHT GREEN

Incumbent: Brian Higgins (D)

Area: Part of Erie County (Buffalo, Lackawanna)/Part of Niagara County (North Tonawanda, Lockport, Niagara Falls)

Population: 700,130

Obama: 56%

McCain: 43%

Old District: Obama 54% McCain 44%; Kerry 53% Bush 45%

White: 85% Black: 8% Native: 0% Asian: 2% Hispanic: 4% Other: 1%

Notes: This Buffalo-based district does not change much partisan-wise, but it shifts up to take Niagara Falls.

District 28 – MID-STATE PINK

Incumbent: Michael Arcuri (D)

Area: Part of Oneida County (Rome, Utica)/All of Madison County (Oneida)/Part of Onondaga County/Part of Cayuga County (Auburn)/All of Seneca County/All of Tompkins County (Ithaca)/All of Cortland County/Part of Broome County (Binghamton)/Part of Schuyler County/Part of Lewis County

Population: 699,838

Obama: 55%

McCain: 44%

Old District: Obama 50% McCain 48%; Kerry 47% Bush 53% (Current 24th)

White: 90% Black: 4% Native: 0% Asian: 2% Hispanic: 2% Other: 1%

Notes: Arcuri sheds a lot of the Republican precincts in Oneida, while retains his base in Utica. Further, he loses Herkimer and Chenango, while taking in Ithaca and Binghamton. The distict also takes in Auburn and the southern suburbs of Syracuse. The PVI is now in the D territory, and Arcuri should be fine from now on-though, he might consider leaving the Blue Dogs as votes in Tompkins might want a primary.

A whopping eight months since my last Senate roundup, I figured it was high time to survey the landscape again. Overall, things have gotten significantly better for the Republicans in the last year, though not nearly as overwhelmingly so as the drama-prone national media might have you believe.

A continued Democratic majority in the Senate is all but assured after November (and is still quite likely in the House as well). The probable range, IMO, is a Democratic caucus in the 112th Senate of between 54 seats at the low end and 58 seats at the high end.

Read a race-by-race analysis (with pretty maps) below the fold…

This is the playing field in 2010: Democratic open seats in North Dakota, Connecticut, and Delaware; Republican open seats in Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Kentucky, New Hampshire, and Kansas. And here is my (early) results projection:

I am fairly certain of Republican pickups in North Dakota, Arkansas, and Nevada at this time, while the true tossup races for now are in Colorado, Missouri, Ohio, Delaware, and New Hampshire. The Democrats remain very slight favorites to hold Illinois and Pennsylvania, and the Republicans retain edges in Florida, Kentucky, and North Carolina.

As always, seats are ranked by likelihood of flipping:

1. North Dakota (open) – Byron Dorgan (D) retiring after 3 terms

Outlook: Very Likely Republican pickup

Dorgan’s retirement is indeed a huge blow to the Democrats, though perhaps canceled out by Dodd’s bowing out in Connecticut. Gov. John Hoeven (R) is in and will almost certainly be the junior Senator from North Dakota.

2. Arkansas – Blanche Lincoln (D) seeking third term

Outlook: Likely Republican pickup

Lincoln’s numbers are getting uglier against all opponents (the best she does is an eight-point deficit) and show no signs of recovering. Barring an eleventh-hour miracle, her Senate career is over, it seems.

3. Nevada – Harry Reid (D) seeking fifth term

Outlook: Leans Republican pickup

Reid has such a fundraising advantage and some time left to up his approval ratings, but few longtime incumbents recover from these dismal numbers. Many Democrats are probably quietly hoping that Reid “pulls a Dodd” in the next few months.

4. Colorado – Michael Bennet (D) seeking full term

Outlook: Tossup

Bennet faces a tough challenge in the Democratic primary from former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, and neither candidate seems secure against ex-Lt. Gov. Jane Norton or any of the other Republican prospects. The Democrats definitely have a good chance to hold this seat, with neither candidate carrying much prior baggage, but I sense that this race will go however the national climate goes, and at this moment, that means it will go to the GOP.

5. Delaware (open) – Ted Kaufman (D) retiring after partial term

Outlook: Tossup

I know that most polls have shown longtime Rep. Mike Castle (R) leading state Attorney General Beau Biden (D), but I for one am fairly convinced this race will tighten and the trends go Biden’s way once he declares and the state’s Democrats start “coming home.” Interestingly, Castle will be 71 years old on election day, to Biden’s 41, so there will likely be a noticeable contrast in tone and style between these two highly familiar candidates.

6. Missouri (open) – Kit Bond (R) retiring after four terms

Outlook: Tossup

Polls here have been close but consistent, with Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) barely ahead of Rep. Roy Blunt (R), always within the margin of error. Still, considering the GOP-friendly trends elsewhere during the last several months, this seems a promising sign for the Show Me State Democrats. For now, this is the Dems’ best opportunity for a pickup.

6. Ohio (open) – George Voinovich (R) retiring after two terms

Outlook: Tossup / Leans Republican hold

Even with nationwide Republican advances of late, former Rep. Rob Portman (R) has never built a convincing lead against either Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) or Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (D). Fisher is favored to win the primary, and at the point I expect the race to become a tossup. If the election were today, Portman would win.

7. New Hampshire (open) – Judd Gregg (R) retiring after three terms

Outlook: Tossup / Leans Republican hold

Former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R) has a slight lead over Rep. Paul Hodes (D) — grain-of-salt-worthy pollster ARG has her ahead 43-36, hardly a game-ending advantage. Like Ohio, Hodes should close the gap over the spring and summer, and if he doesn’t, we should be worried.

8. Pennsylvania – Arlen Specter (D) seeking sixth term

Outlook: Leans Democratic hold

Specter is in for a close fight (if he makes it to the general election) against former Rep. Pat Toomey (R), the hardline conservative who nearly unseated him in the GOP primary back in 2004. In the meantime, Rep. Joe Sestak is giving Specter reason to watch his left flank. But Specter has been careful to compile a fairly progressive record since switching parties last spring, and my own prediction is that this gives him a clear edge for the nomination. At that point, disaffected Democrats and moderate-minded Independents will gradually line up behind the incumbent in big enough numbers to carry him to victory over Toomey, especially if the winds shift back to the Dems over the summer.

9. Illinois (open) – Roland Burris (D) retiring after partial term

Outlook: Leans Democratic hold

The polls have been unclear about who has the advantage in a race between Republican Rep. Mark Kirk and Democratic state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, while (due to name recognition) Kirk polls well ahead of lesser-known Dems David Hoffman and Cheryle Jackson. Considering the state’s recent history, it’s hard to imagine Kirk winning on any but an exceptionally fortunate night for the GOP.

10. Florida (open) – George LeMieux (R) retiring after partial term

Outlook: Leans Republican hold

Gov. Charlie Crist has long been the favorite for this seat in a general election, as his cross-partisan popularity remains high, but his biggest problem will be winning the GOP primary against conservative former state House Speaker Marco Rubio. If Rubio beats Crist, as many now expect (though his momentum could always stall), expect a competitive and expensive race between Rubio and Rep. Kendrick Meek (D).

11. North Carolina – Richard Burr (R) seeking second term

Outlook: Leans Republican hold

I’ve been surprised by the sporadic polling in this race. Burr faces a reputable challenger in Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D), even if this is a Southern state in a GOP-leaning election cycle. Burr is far from universally popular or even universally recognized, but for now the DSCC clearly has to prioritize defense.

12. Kentucky (open) – Jim Bunning (R) retiring after 2 terms

Outlook: Leans Republican hold

The Democratic primary between Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo and state Attorney General Jack Conway has been nasty, while “small government conservative” Rand Paul has by several accounts taken the upper hand in the GOP primary against Secretary of State Trey Grayson, the establishment choice. Considering Kentucky’s traditional balance of social conservatism with economic liberalism, Paul would seem an unorthodox general election choice, but polls show he would do well against the Democrats. Definitely a primary to watch, even if either Republican is clearly favored in November.

Just below competitive:

– California for the Democrats (Boxer clearly ahead of Carly Fiorina, but not quite out of the woods)

– Gillibrand (New York B) for the Democrats (against anyone but Rep. Peter King, who might keep the race competitive, Gillibrand should win easily, assuming she wins the primary)

– Louisiana for the Republicans (Vitter leads Rep. Charlie Melancon, but his personal issues make it hard for me to rate him as “safe”)

The Democrats should be fine in Connecticut (Blumenthal trouncing Simmons/McMahon/Schiff), as should the Republicans in Kansas (either Tiahrt or Moran). Meanwhile, Republican incumbents seem solid (in the general election, at least) in Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, Iowa, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, and Utah. Democratic incumbents should win without trouble in Hawaii, Indiana, Maryland, New York (Schumer), Oregon, Vermont, Washington, and Wisconsin.

Since there’s a spate of dropouts going on, it looks like a prominent Republican decided to get in on the action too. Rep. Jim Gerlach has cut short his bid in the Republican gubernatorial primary, where he’s been lagging AG Tom Corbett by gigantic margins. He cites money woes as the driving concern, though:

[Expenses] left me with two choices: either spend all of my time raising money with little time left for meeting with voters; or withdrawing my candidacy and working even harder to serve the public. I am choosing to serve the public – many of whom have graciously rewarded me with their support for nearly two decades.

The big question mark for Dems is whether Gerlach plans to move back into the PA-06 race, which would probably serve to drop this ever-so-slightly-Dem-leaning tossup back to a GOP-leaning hold. Gerlach may be kicking himself for giving up his seat at all, although in the wake of barely escaping Bob Roggio in 2008, it was probably hard to imagine that he might actually have an easier time of it against better opposition in 2010 thanks to changes in the prevailing winds. However, Gerlach’s spokesperson says he hasn’t ruled anything “in or out” about running in the 6th. For starters, it’s not clear which of the myriad GOPers already running to replace Gerlach would stand down if Gerlach got back in the race.

UPDATE: While it’s not exactly concrete, GOP state Rep. Curt Schroder is indicating that he’s going to stay in the PA-06 race even if Gerlach goes for another term.

RaceTracker Wiki: PA-Gov

The idea behind this plan is to create 28 districts that Democrats can expect to win, while pushing back against conservative charges of gerrymandering by creating districts that are relatively compact.  In my mind, a district was likely to elect a Democrat if it gave Barack Obama 54% of the vote or more – i.e. at least one point more than the national average.  There is a risk that in a heavily Republican year a number of Democrats could get splattered, but once things shifted back they should be able to pick most of these seats back up.  

In addition, I wanted to create districts that split as few counties as possible.  Obviously, you can’t avoid county-splitting without violating one-person-one-vote, but I’ve managed to keep this to a minimum.  In the NYC area, all bets are off, though districts are more compact than they’ve probably been since the 1980s.

Because many of these districts are only marginally Democratic, I also tried to keep as much of an incumbent’s “home turf” as possible.  You’ll recognize most of these districts, but the changes are substantial.  

In sum, I split up Lee’s district between Massa, Slaughter, Arcuri and Higgins.  Peter King loses most of his present district, and gains Southwestern Nassau County.  In a 55% Obama district with a substantial African American population, I think he’ll find it quite difficult to survive.  Suffolk is split up three ways.  Other than that, I think you’ll recognize the map pretty easily.

As a side note, this non-New Yorker (who avoids the City as much as possible) was pretty shocked to learn how much of South Brooklyn votes like Texas (I do know that the demographics are NOTHING like Texas, but I didn’t realize just how heavily Republican they voted).  The 91% McCain precincts made the map-drawing there much more difficult than I expected.

(BTW, no idea why the images screwed up like they did.  If anyone has a clue let me know and I’ll re-try).

District 1:  Tim Bishop

Current District:  Obama 52%, McCain 48%

Proposed District: Obama 54%, McCain 46%

Population: 700,592

Demographics: 78% white, 7% bl, 2% asn, 12% hisp., 2% other.

The idea here is to split the fairly Democratic Hamptons, which enables Bishop to pick up some more heavily Democratic voters in Islip and Babylon.  Bishop also gets some Democratic precincts around Plainview.

District 2:  Steve Israel

Current District:  Obama 56%, McCain 43%

Proposed District:  Obama 54%, McCain 46%

Population:  701,787

Demographics:  78% white, 7% bl, 3% asn, 10% hisp., 1% other.

This is most of northern Suffolk County.  Israel picks up some Republican towns on the North Shore, but gains part of the Hamptons to offset a bit.

District 3:  RIP, Peter King

Current District:  Obama 47%, McCain 52%

Proposed District:  Obama 55%, McCain 44%

Population:  701,964

Demographics:  72% white, 13% bl, 3% asn, 10% hisp., 2% other.

King loses almost all of his district, which is now roughly the bottom third of Nassau County, and gains the most heavily Democratic portions of McCarthy’s old district.  Overall, this is a huge drop in Republican performance, and a big gain in Democratic performance.  Moreover, about 2/3 of his constituents are new to him, and a lot of them aren’t particularly friendly.  He can’t move to the 4th or 5th because of what we’re doing there.  To the extent Republicans complain, three horizontal districts is exactly how Nassau County was configured in the 1960s, when it was advantageous to evenly distribute the Republican vote.

District 4:  Carolyn McCarthy.

Current District:  Obama 58%, McCain 41%

Proposed District:  Obama 58%, McCain 41%

Population: 703,628

Demographics: 82% wh, 12% bl, 1% asn, 3% hisp, 1% other

McCarthy has quite a few new constituents, but most of them are Democrats.  To the east, she picks up Jericho and surrounding counties, and then gets a bunch of racially mixed counties in Queens out of the Old Ninth.  The population base is still Nassau, so I don’t see much risk of a primary challenge here.

District 5:  Gary Ackerman

Current District: Obama 63%, McCain 36%

Proposed District: Obama 55%, McCain 44%

Population: 702, 300

Demographics: 65% wh, 3% bl, 19% asn, 11% hisp, 2% other

Ackerman might not like the district, which is much more Republican and which now stretches across Northern Long Island into Suffolk County. On the other hand, this is a lot of territory that he had in the 1992 iteration of the district, and he has to pick up new areas due to population loss anyway.  He could be vulnerable to a primary challenge, but ultimately low voter participation among recent Hispanic and Asian immigrants probably maintains a pretty white primary electorate here.

District 6:  Gregory Meeks

Current District: Obama 89% McCain 11%

Proposed District:  81% McCain 19%

Population: 699,514

Demographics: 26% wh, 50% bl, 5% asn, 13% hisp, 6% other

It is becoming very, very difficult to maintain three black majority districts in New York City due to population loss and losing district.  We’ll see this in Pennsylvania, Illinois and Michigan this time around as well, where black majority districts created in the 1970s and 1980s are just stretched too thin to continue to exist.  Anyway, Meeks’ district grows west into Brooklyn and maintains its black majority – barely – by picking up some heavily black precincts near Sea Gate and Coney Island.

District 7:  Joe Crowley

Current District: 79% Obama, 20% McCain

Proposed District:  83% Obama, 16% McCain

Population: 701,950

Demographics: 27% wh, 27% bl, 5% asn, 37% hisp, 4% oth

Crowley’s district loses a lot of Queens, and becomes much more of a Bronx-based district, connected by the Bronx-Whitestone bridge.  It’s actually probably a better district for Crowley than his present one, due to low turnout among new minorities.  I doubt he’ll miss Jackson Heights.

District 8:  Jerrold Nadler

Current District:  74% Obama, 26% McCain

Proposed District:  82% Obama, 20% McCain

Population: 702,525

Demographics: 56% wh, 5% bl, 17% asn, 19% hisp

Because I push Velazquez’s district back into Queens, Nadler picks up Hispanic precincts in Southern Manhattan, as well as some old Maloney districts.  Other than that, this should look pretty familiar; it now crosses over the Brooklyn Bridge, and again, I don’t think he’ll miss Bensonhurst.

District 9:  Anthony Weiner

Current District:  55% Obama, 45% McCain

Proposed District: 63% Obama, 37% McCain

Population: 700, 751

Demographics: 57% wh, 10% bl, 14% asn, 16% hisp, 4% other

Weiner loses some of Central Queens to the Fourth, and loses his connection to Brooklyn due to the new Sixth extending all the way across Jamaica Bay.  So I did one of the few really grotesque things with this map.  I put a “tunnel” through East New York to get to a lot of Weiner’s old Brooklyn constituents, and to help break up “Little Texas” in South Brooklyn.  If I just did water contiguity, I could probably “pretty” this up quite a bit.

District 10: Ed Towns

Current District:  91% Obama, 9% McCain

Proposed District:  80% Obama, 20% McCain

Population:  704,800

Demographics: 27% wh, 50% bl, 5% asn, 15% hisp, 3% oth

This district maintains its black majority (barely) and is much more compact than the present district.  It is still based around East New York.  The problem is that with stagnant population growth and the need of every district in the state to take on a fair number of new constituents due to the eliminated district, there just aren’t a whole lot of African American voters to split between three black-majority districts.  So I took some additional voters from Little Texas and added them on.  They won’t be voting in a Democratic primary anytime soon anyway.

District 11:  Yvette Clarke

Current District:  91% Obama, 9% McCain

Proposed District:  85% Obama, 15%

Population:  693,425

Demographics:  27% wh, 50% bl, 5% asn, 15% hisp, 3% other

Clarke has to pick up a substantial number of new constituents as well, from  her Bed-Stuy district, so I use her to break up South Brooklyn.  This is one of the bigger deviations from the equal population standard, but it’s hard to bring her numbers up while maintaining the black majority.

District 12:  Nydia Velazquez

Current District:  86% Obama, 13% McCain

Proposed District: 82% Obama, 17% McCain

Population:  700,933

Demographics: 19% wh, 12% bl, 14% asn, 52% hisp, 3% other

This is more like Velazquez’s 1990s district, which took in the Hispanic vote in Northern Queens, rather than NYC.  There’s an ugly tunnel across Brooklyn to connect to Velazquez’s home in Carroll Gardens, but this is still an improvement in terms of compactness from the present one.

District 13:  Michael McMahon

Current District:  49% Obama, 51% McCain

Proposed District:  54% Obama, 46% McCain

Population:  695, 331

Demographics: 65% wh, 7% bl, 10% asn, 15% hisp, 2% other

I was bound and determined not to split Staten Island and not to use the Staten Island ferry to connect the district to the City.  It just didn’t work – I could get up to 53% Obama but not 54%.  I suppose if I knew the City better I could do it, but I didn’t feel like testing out every precinct in Brooklyn.  Besides, for most of the district’s existence it was joined with Manhattan via the ferry anyways, not into Brooklyn, so I can live with this.

District 14:  Carolyn Maloney

Current District:  78% Obama, 21% McCain

Proposed District:  80% Obama, 19% McCain

Population: 697, 918

Demographics: 54% wh, 12% bl, 8% asian, 22% hisp, 4% other

Maloney loses a good chunk of the Lower East Side, but picks up Clinton Hill, Williamsburg, and Greenpoint.  Connection to the island is still through the Queens Midtown Tunnel.

District 15:  Charlie Rangel

Current District: 93% Obama, 6% McCain

Proposed District:  93% Obama, 6% McCain

Population:  706, 188

Demographics:  20% wh, 29% bl, 3% asn, 46% hisp, 2% other.

Not a whole lot of changes for Rangel, who goes a little further into the Upper East Side and loses Queens.  Rangel could be vulnerable to a primary challenge from the burgeoning Hispanic community, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing.

District 16: Jose Serrano

Current District: 95% Obama, 5% McCain

Proposed District: 93% Obama, 7% McCain

Population: 703,044

Demographics: 6% wh, 29% bl, 2% asn, 61% hisp, 2% other

Not many changes here to this Southwest Bronx district.  This remains among the top 5 most heavily Democratic districts in the country.

District 17:  Eliot Engel

Current District: 72% Obama, 28% McCain

Proposed District: 55% Obama, 45% McCain

Population:  698, 694

Demographics:  73% wh, 10% bl, 4% asn, 12% hisp, 2% other

Oh, Engel’s not going to like this.  He loses a chunk of the Bronx and gains all of Sullivan and half of Orange County.  He could presumably lose a primary, but while Engel is a solid liberal, he’s not really a rock star of the party.  If you aren’t obsessed with keeping counties together, you could give Nita Lowey parts of Rockland in exchange for parts of Yonkers and shore Engel up.  But at the end of the day, this is how you make upstate districts more Democratic.

District 18:  Nita Lowey

Current District: 62% Obama, 38% McCain

Proposed District: 67% Obama, 33% McCain

Population: 707, 243

Demographics: 56% wh, 20% bl, 4% asn, 17% hisp, 3% other

Lowey gets more of Westchester and a more Democratic district.  She’ll still like this a lot more than her 1992 district, which actually went down in the Bronx and Queens.  

District 19:  John Hall

Current District:  51% Obama, 48% McCain

Proposed District:  54% Obama, 46% McCain

Population: 700,714

Demographics:  79% wh, 7%bl, 3% asn, 10% hisp, 1% other

Hall is still the one to represent FDR’s old stomping grounds.  He gives up a chunk of Orange and Rockland Counties and gets a lot of Westchester, while keeping his Dutchess and Putnam County bases.  That’s a good trade for him; he’ll still be the one here.

District 20:  Scott Murphy

Current District:  51% Obama, 48% McCain

Proposed District:  54% Obama, 45% McCain

Population:  704,604

Demographics:  91% wh, 4% bl, 1% asn, 2% hisp, 1% other

This district becomes much more compact.  It loses its spike into Essex County and its extension into Delaware County, but it gains heavily Democratic parts of Rensselear and an Albany precinct for 1p1v purposes.  Much better territory for Murphy.  

District 21:  Paul Tonko

Current District:  58% Obama, 40% McCain

Proposed District:  55% Obama, 43% McCain

Population:  697,033

Demographics:  89% wh, 5% bl, 1% asn, 3% hisp, 1% other

The heart of this district actually remains very much the same:  Albany, Schoharie and Montgomery counties.  Tonko loses the city of Schenectady to shore up the 23rd, and picks up lightly populated, but fairly Republican Cortland, Chenango, Otsego, Greene and Herkimer Counties.  Tonko should have little trouble keeping this seat, even with the reduced Democratic percentages.

District 22:  Maurice Hinchey

Current District:  59% Obama, 39% McCain

Proposed District: 56% Obama, 42% McCain

Population: 704,793

Demographics: 89% wh, 3% bl, 2% asn, 3% hisp, 2% other

Hinchey loses the Sullivan and parts of Rockland Counties.  Because of population loss, he picks up entire versions of Delaware, Broome, Tioga, and Tompkins Counties, and then takes Chemung, Schuyler and Yates out of the 29th and 26th.  The tendril over to Ithaca is actually less obvious because of this, and it’s a nicer looking district.  He keeps all of his Ulster base.

District 23:  Bill Owens

Current District:  52% Obama, 46% McCain

Proposed District:  54% Obama, 44% McCain

Population:  702, 958

Demographics:  91% wh, 3% bl, 1% asn, 2% hisp, 1% other

This district is fundamentally unchanged.  Owens loses the more conservative portions of Oneida County and Madison County, while picking up the heavily Democratic Schenectady precincts.  The three North Country are still kept together.

District 24:  Mike Arcuri

Current District:  51% Obama, 48% McCain

Proposed District:  54% Obama, 45% McCain

Population:  696, 248

Demographics:  88% wh, 6% bl, 1% nat, 1% asn, 2% hisp, 1% other

Gone is the crescent-shaped old 24th.  Instead, Arcuri keeps his Oneida County base, and picks up a chunk of Syracuse, with Madison in between.  It’s a good tradeoff for the rural counties he gives up, though he may be more vulnerable to a primary challenge.

District 25:  Dan Maffei

Current District:  56% Obama, 43% McCain

Proposed District:  54% Obama, 45% McCain

Population:  696,671

Demographics:  88% wh, 6% bl, 2% asn, 2% hisp, 1% other

Pretty simple concept going on here.  Maffei keeps most of central Syracuse, and Wayne County, picks up some suburbs of the ‘Cuse, a couple of small rural districts, and a lot more of Rochester.  Population loss in this area just requires everyone to get a lot of new constituents regardless, but his district is pretty safe.

District 26:  Brian Higgins

Current District:  54% Obama, 44% McCain

Proposed District:  54% Obama, 44% McCain

Population:  694,363

Demographics: 83% wh, 10%bl, 1% nat, 1%asn, 4% hisp, 8% other

Higgins picks up Cattaraugus, Allegany, and part of Wyoming Counties, but makes up for it with more of central Buffalo.  It’s a wash for him.  As a side note, I’m genuinely interested what the 8% “other” is.

District 27:  Louise Slaughter

Current District:  69% Obama, 30% McCain

Proposed District:  54% Obama, 44% McCain

Population:  693,836

Demographics:  85%wh, 8% bl, 2% asn, 4% hisp, 1% other

Okay, first a gripe.  If Slaughter would move to the west side of Rochester, we could do a lot better here.  Since she’s 80, I was half tempted to just do it anyway, but I guess I don’t get to make the contest rules.  🙂 Anyway, by expanding into Orleans County she gets a more compact-looking district.  Her failure to hoard Democrats in Buffalo and Rochester is why this whole thing works.  This could result in the election of a blue dog-type Democrat, but trading Slaughter for a blue dog as a price for getting rid of Chris Lee strikes me as a good deal.

District 28:  Chris Lee and Eric Massa

Current District:  51% McCain, 48% Obama (Massa)

Current District:  52% McCain, 46% Obama (Lee)

Proposed District:  54% Obama, 45% McCain  

Population: 695, 120

Demographics: 82% wh, 12% bl, 1% asn, 3% hisp, 1% other

This is really Lee’s old district at heart, with Massa’s home base tacked on.  The big difference is that Lee loses half of Wyoming County to Higgins while picking up some nasty precincts around Buffalo and Rochester.  Assuming Massa doesn’t lose a primary challenge, he should be able to win in a much bluer district.

Q.E.D.

• AR-Sen: The news that the guy who held Blanche Lincoln to within about 10 points last time (in 2004) is getting back in the race this year seems like it should be a bigger news story than it is, but there’s an already filled-to-capacity GOP field and the establishment seems to have already picked favorites. At any rate, former state Sen. Jim Holt, closely linked with the state’s religious right, officially launched his bid today.

• AZ-Sen: It’s look more and more like ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth is serious about pursuing a Republican primary challenge to John McCain and not just looking to fundraise his way out of some lingering legal debts. He’s been contacting consultants and pollsters about strategy, and he’s also made some high-profile appearances recently, including headlining a fundraiser for controversial Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio. In response to the possible challenge, John McCain is launching two different radio ads full of right-wing language pretty transparently aimed at the teabagging crowd, saying Barack Obama is “leading an extreme left-wing crusade” and calling himself “Arizona’s last line of defense.”

• CT-Sen: Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves, but it’s looking likelier that starting in 2013, Richard Blumenthal will be Connecticut’s senior senator. PPP finds that Joe Lieberman’s numbers, not good before his HCR sabotage, have gotten even worse. His approval is a mind-blowing 14/81 among Democrats (probably ending any plans by him to seek the Democratic nomination in 2012). He fares least worst among Republicans, who give him a 39/48 approval; it’s good for a 25/67 approval over all, along with a 19/68 approval of his actions on health care (which pissed off Democrats while still leaving Republicans unhappy when he voted for final passage). While the Hill’s piece on Rep. Chris Murphy seems to be based mostly on a vague sentence by Murphy, it does point to a suddenly congealing CW that Murphy (with Blumenthal already engaged) will be the person to tackle Lieberman in 2012.

• FL-Sen, FL-Gov: You know you’re in trouble when you’re spending valuable time fighting rumors spread on Facebook by thoroughly discredited ex-Rep. Mark Foley. Charlie Crist today said there’s no truth to the rumors that he’s about to drop his faltering Senate primary bid and try for re-election as Governor instead.

• IL-Sen: Patrick Hughes, who’s been seeding his right-wing insurgent bid with some of his own money, is seeking to break out of the single digits in the GOP primary polls against Rep. Mark Kirk by upping his name recognition. He’s out with a TV spot today.

• MA-Sen: Martha Coakley is shifting her sleepy general election campaign into overdrive today with the special election several weeks away, launching her first general election TV ad. She’s also receiving the endorsements today of most of the key figures in the Kennedy clan, including Ted’s widow Vicky and ex-Rep. Joe (along with honorary Kennedy and temporary Senator Paul Kirk).

• ND-Sen: As we parse the comments from various potential Democratic candidates in the newly-open Senate race in North Dakota, it sounds like former AG Heidi Heitkamp is “very interested” and “very much looking into” the race, while talk show host Ed Schultz is “at this point… not even considering.”

• NY-Sen-B: Here’s an interesting possibility surfacing, as the GOP seeks anyone who’s willing to take on Kirsten Gillibrand in the Senate race: ex-Rep. Susan Molinari, who was considered a rising star back when she represented NY-13. She’s started floating her name out there (or more accurately, her dad, Staten Island GOP leader Guy Molinari), but one key point from the article is that Molinari — currently employed at the firm of Bracewell & Giuliani (yes, that Giuliani) — “left Congress in 1997 and currently lives in Virginia.” Meanwhile, as the potential Harold Ford Jr. candidacy is still the “wtf?” heard ’round the blogosphere, The Albany Project takes a deeper look at the mysterious forces pushing the idea front and center.

• IL-Gov: Desperately needing to make up some ground on incumbent Gov. Pat Quinn in the last month before the Democratic primary, Comptroller Dan Hynes is going hard negative against Quinn from the apparent right in a new TV spot, painting him as a soft-on-crime tax-raiser. Meanwhile, Quinn got the endorsement from the Chicago Sun-Times.

• MA-Gov: State Treasurer Tim Cahill’s independent candidacy for Governor hasn’t really seemed to have its desired effect for Cahill, as it mostly has allowed Democratic Gov. Deval Patrick to move ahead in the polls as Cahill splits the anti-Patrick votes. Cahill looks to be trying to lure some more GOP voters into his camp to become the definitive anti-Patrick candidate, though, with his running mate pick, GOP former state Rep. Paul Loscocco. It doesn’t sound like Cahill or Loscocco are very enthuasiastic about taking each other to the prom, though; Cahill already got turned down by four previous people he’d asked to be his running mate (including current Senate candidate Scott Brown), and Loscocco had previously been lobbying to be GOP candidate Charlie Baker’s running mate but missed the cut on that one.

• MD-Gov: Incumbent Gov. Martin O’Malley seems to have a fairly clear path to re-election, but for the time being he has higher-profile opposition in his own primary than from the Republicans. He’s facing a challenge from the right from George Owings, who officially launched today. Owings was a conservative Democratic state Delegate for many years and then picked by GOP Governor Bob Ehrlich as the state’s veteran affairs secretary (who was then sacked by O’Malley once he took office); Owings is attacking O’Malley’s tax raising and opposition to the death penalty.

• NE-Gov: Democrats are back to square one in the Nebraska gubernatorial race against GOP incumbent Dave Heineman, after Douglas Co. Commissioner (and former Omaha mayor) Mike Boyle — who’d sounded likely to run last month — decided against a bid. Democratic state Sen. Steve Lathrop has also ruled the race out.

• CO-03: Martin Beeson, the Republican DA for an agglomeration of small mountain counties, has pulled out of his bid for the GOP nod in the 3rd to challenge Rep. John Salazar. Beeson’s hopes dimmed when state Rep. (and 2006 loser) Scott Tipton got into the GOP field a few months ago.

• IL-10: Moderate Republican state Rep. Beth Coulson got a big (if unsurprising) endorsement, from fellow GOP moderate ex-Rep. John Porter. Porter held the seat for 20 years, until he made way for his former chief of staff (current Rep. Mark Kirk) in 2000.

• MN-01: Apparently John Wade, the president of Rochester’s Chamber of Commerce, had been interested in a run in the 1st against Democratic sophomore Rep. Tim Walz. He just decided against it, although a lone business conservative seems like he might have a shot at winning the crowded GOP primary, split between a number of loudmouthed social conservatives (most notably ex-state Rep. Allen Quist).

• MS-01: Good fundraising has propelled Republican state Sen. Alan Nunnelee up a tier in the NRCC’s framework for challengers. Nunnelee, who’ll likely face off against Rep. Travis Childers and his mighty ‘stache, is now a “Contender.”

• TN-06: Democrats are having trouble recruiting to fill the slot left behind by Rep. Bart Gordon’s retirement. State Rep. Henry Fincher just said no; he follows fellow state Rep. Mike McDonald in declining. It can’t be that appetizing, given the district’s reddening hue, several strong GOPers waiting in the wings, and the likelihood of GOP gerrymandering making the district even less hospitable in 2012.

• UT-03, UT-Sen: I’d be surprised if anyone were on pins and needles about this, but if you missed yesterday’s announcement, yes, Rep. Jason Chaffetz will be returning for another term in the House rather than getting into the primary against impermissibily sane GOP Sen. Bob Bennett.

• EMILY’s List: Stephanie Shriock, chief of staff to Sen. Jon Tester, will take over as head of EMILY’s List from Ellen Malcolm. It marks the first change in leadership at the top for the prolific PAC.

• RNC: After a revolt by what remains of its moderate wing, the RNC has backed down on its purity test (which would require 8 of 10 agreements on right-wing positions, and probably would have cut loose Mike Castle, Mark Kirk, Rob Simmons, and Charlie Crist loose from RNC funding). Now they’re simply requiring that nobody endorse any Democratic candidates in 2010. Meanwhile, Michael Steele continues to overshadow the rest of the RNC’s operations with his gift of saying odd things, with today’s installment a riposte to intraparty critics intent on withholding RNC donations because of Steele’s leadership: “get a life” or “fire me.”

• Gay marriage: It’s been flying under the radar with everything else going on this week, but New Jersey’s state Senate is currently debating gay marriage, with a vote possibly later today. Only 13 Senators have definitely committed to it so far though, short of the 21 needed for passage. (Dems are already short 1 vote with the absence of Dana Redd, who resigned after becoming mayor of Camden.)

• Census: Here’s an interesting conundrum for the Census Bureau — how to deal with the issue of the nation’s legions of sunbirds: retirees who live in the south for winter and the north for summer. It’s especially an issue for Minnesota as it seeks to stave off elimination of one of its Congressional districts, and it’s making special efforts to make sure long-term travelers list themselves according to their Minnesota addresses.