Month: May 2010

AK-Gov (5/6, likely voters):

Sean Parnell (R-inc): 58

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 30

Sean Parnell (R-inc): 62

Hollis French (D): 24

Sean Parnell (R-inc): 62

Bob Poe (D): 21

Ralph Samuels (R): 43

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 36

Ralph Samuels (R): 48

Hollis French (D): 26

Ralph Samuels (R): 47

Bob Poe (D): 23

(MoE: ±4.5%)

CA-Sen (5/12, likely voters, 4/12 in parens):

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 42 (43)

Tom Campbell (R): 41 (41)

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 45 (42)

Carly Fiorina (R): 38 (38)

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 46 (42)

Chuck DeVore (R): 40 (39)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

CO-Gov (5/11, likely voters, 5/14 in parens):

John Hickenlooper (D): 41 (42)

Scott McInnis (R): 47 (48)

(MoE: ±3%)

ID-Sen (5/11, likely voters):

Tom Sullivan (D): 22

Mike Crapo (R-inc): 66

(MoE: ±4.5%)

ID-Gov (5/11, likely voters, 3/23 in parens):

Keith Allred (D): 32 (28)

Butch Otter (R-inc): 54 (60)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

KS-Gov (5/11, likely voters, 2/24 in parens):

Tom Holland (D): 27 (33)

Sam Brownback (R): 58 (55)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

KS-Sen (5/11, likely voters):

David Haley (D): 25

Jerry Moran (R): 60

Lisa Johnston (D): 25

Jerry Moran (R): 61

Charles Schollenberger (D): 25

Jerry Moran (R): 59

David Haley (D): 27

Todd Tiahrt (R): 58

Lisa Johnston (D): 29

Todd Tiahrt (R): 57

Charles Schollenberger (D): 30

Todd Tiahrt (R): 55

(MoE: ±4.5%)

MA-Gov (5/10, likely voters, 4/5 in parens):

Deval Patrick (D): 45 (35)

Charlie Baker (R): 31 (27)

Tim Cahill (I): 14 (23)

Grace Ross (D): 27

Charlie Baker (R): 32

Tim Cahill (I): 16

(MoE: ±4.5%)

NH-Sen (5/11, likely voters, 4/7 parens):

Paul Hodes (D): 38 (35)

Kelly Ayotte (R): 50 (50)

Paul Hodes (D): 37 (37)

Bill Binnie (R): 49 (49)

Paul Hodes (D): 43 (39)

Ovide Lamontagne (R): 38 (44)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

     

    I wonder if I am the only one interested in the Louisville Mayoral election primary that is taking place on Tuesday. Jerry Abramson was eligible to run for another term yet shocked residents by giving up the title “Mayor for Life” to run for  Lieutenant Governor in the 2011 election. I thought it would be nice to give a brief overview of the candidates running before Tuesday’s primary.  

   I am a vocal supporter of Greg Fischer. He is a prominent local businessman who ran against Bruce Lunsford for the Democratic nomination for Senate in 2008. I honestly think he would be a good Mayor who could self finance a run for statewide office in the future. He comes off as very progressive to boot.

    If David Tandy gets the nomination I would probably vomit. He was the former Council President who, in my view, did a HORRIBLE job. I’m not too worried though because I think he will come in a solid third or possibly even fourth. Polling has indicated that Fischer is the front runner with Tandy coming close. However that was a long time ago.  

    Former Council President Jim King has been advertising constantly and I think he is making headway. His advertisements mainly include talk of job creation, his experience and attacks on front runner Fischer. Fischer has done adds responding to King’s attacks and talking about his record. I expect Fischer and King to run a close election. I have nothing against King’s record but I have not been impressed with his constant attacks on Fischer. I would still support King in November, but could not say the same about Tandy.

    Other candidates for the Democratic nomination include:

Tyler Allen- founder of 8664.

Connie Marshall- small business owner

Lisa Moxley- Barack Obama’s communication director for Kentucky

Shannon White- John Yarmuth’s finance director

    The Republicans have not put up any viable candidates in my view. The best they have is Hal Heiner who is a member of the City Council. The field will also include businessman Chris Thienemanm who unsuccessfully challenged Anne Northup for the Republican nomination in 2008 and small business owner Jonathan Robertson.  I feel that Heiner will win the primary by a fairly comfortable margin and will be crushed by either King or Fischer come November. Although a Republican victory is certainly not impossible.

    This election will certainly be interesting and I hope you will join me in supporting Greg Fischer on Tuesday. I hope this diary was well liked and if your view is different than mine please feel free to express it. Thanks!

Update

Like him or not Fischer is the Democratic nominee. Tandy comes in a distance second and King in third. I’m looking forward to November!

Charlie Crist leaves the Governorship open so Alex Sink (D) and Bill McCollum (R) are running for it. Sink  is the current CFO for Florida and she won with 53% of the vote in 2006. McCollum is the Attorney General of Florida (who supports repealing the healthcare bill which prevents companies from denying people with preexisting conditions) and he was elected with 52% of the vote in 2006. The campaign has not kicked into high gear but a recent poll showed McCollum leading by 9. This looks like a big lead for McCollum but a month before, the same firm showed McCollum leading by 15. Sink will have to win without high turnout like Obama had in 2008 but she is more popular in rural areas so margins there may make up for lost young and minority votes. It is even possible that McCollum will not the primary but the baselines are done assuming he does.

Sink’s background: she worked with Bank of America until Governor Lawton Chiles (D) appointed her for the state education comission. She then ran for CFO in 2006 and defeated Tom Lee (R)

McCollum’s background: he was a congressman from Orlando from 1980 to 2001, representing Disney World at one point. He ran for Senate in 2000 losing 51%-46% to Bill Nelson who prevented McCollum from having large margins in rural areas. In 2006, McCollum ran for Attorney General and won, winning large margins in the I-4 Corridor.

About Florida regions if you are not familiar with them: the Gold Coast is the Miami to Palm Beach coastline, the I-4 Corridor includes Tampa, Orlando, Daytona Beach and the other areas near I-4. The rest of Floria is…the rest of Florida.

How I did the baselines: I added the percentages of each county from the 2006 CFO election, 2006 Attorney General election and 2008 Presidential election and divided the result by three. I then subtracted 1 point from Sink. The percentages below show how the Gubernatorial election will look if the race ties. Also, I am very sorry the baselines are not in one straight line. Here are some helpful links:

For 2006 CFO election: http://election.dos.state.fl.u…

For 2006 Attorney General election: http://election.dos.state.fl.u…

For 2008 Presidential election: http://www.uselectionatlas.org…

Now finally the baselines:

County name Sink McCollum Other

Alachua          59%  40%  1%

Baker             27%  72%  1%

Bay                32%  67%  1%

Bradford        35%  64%  1%

Brevard          45%  54%  1%

Broward         66%  33%  1%

Calhoun          42%  57%  1%

Charlotte        44%  55%  1%

Citrus             44%  55%  1%

Clay               28%  71%  1%

Collier            35%  64%  1%

Columbia       39%  60%  1%

DeSoto          43%  56%   1%

Dixie              42%  57%   1%

Duval             44%  55%  1%

Escambia       38%  61%  1%

Flager            49%  50%  1%

Franklin         47%  52%  1%

Gadsden        72%  27%  1%

Gilchrest        39%  60%  1%

Glades          47%  52%  1%

Gulf              43%  56%  1%

Hamilton       51%  48%  1%

Hardee         36%  63%  1%

Hendry         45%  54%  1%

Hernando     47%  52%  1%

Highlands      41%  58%  1%

Hillsborough  48% 51% 1%

Holmes           31% 68% 1%

Indian River    40% 59% 1%

Jackson          43% 56% 1%

Jefferson         60% 39% 1%

Lafayette        38% 61% 1%

Lake              41% 58% 1%

Lee                41% 58% 1%

Leon              63% 36% 1%

Levy              44% 55% 1%

Liberty           45% 54% 1%

Madison        56% 43% 1%

Manatee        45% 54% 1%

Marion          44% 55% 1%

Martin           42% 57% 1%

Miami-Dade  56% 43% 1%

Monroe         52% 47% 1%

Nassau          31% 68%  1%

Okaloosa      26%  73% 1%

Okeechobee  46% 53% 1%

Orange          53%  46%  1%

Osceola        52%  47%  1%

Palm Beach   62%  37%  1%

Pasco            46%  53%  1%

Pinellas          51%  48%  1%

Polk              44%  55%  1%

Putnam          44%  55%  1%

Santa Rosa    27%  72%  1%

Sarasota        48%  51%  1%

Seminole        43%  56%  1%

St. Johns        34%  65%  1%

St. Lucie        53%  46%   1%

Sumter          37%   62%   1%

Suwanee       38%   61%   1%

Taylor           44%   55%   1%

Union            35%   64%   1%

Volusia          51%   48%   1%

Wakulla         50%  49%    1%

Walton          30%  69%    1%

Washington   34%  65%    1%

Now for those of us (like me) who like visual aides, here is a map of the county percentages.

Dark Red: McCollum 65%+

Red: McCollum 60%-64%

Lighter Red: McCollum 55%-59%

Even Lighter Red: McCollum 50%-54%

Turquoise: Sink 50%-54%

Blue: Sink 55%-59%

Dark Blue: Sink 60%-64%

Even Darker Blue: Sink 65%+

A little more analysis:

The map shows Sink doing well along the Gold Coast, the Tallahassee area while winning a few counties in the I-4 corridor. McCollum does well in the rest of the state, winning the Jacksonville area, the whiter retiree communities in the north and south as well as the Pensacola area. To nitpick, Sink did very well in the rural counties around Tallahassee in 2006 but since they are trending rightward, the maps show her winning much less than she did in 2006. Also, McCollum is from Orange County (Orlando) so this should help reduce Sink’s margin there (McCollum won 55% in Orange County in 2006) but Orange County’s leftward shift should give Sink a small margin, as shown in the map.

Overall, the counties colored blue appear to not match Obama’s coalition which produced big margins in Orange County but not around Tallahassee. The results should be similar to a regular statewide Florida election.

P.S Just in case you are wondering what I will post on swing state project next, it will be my first redistricting diary in a few months, this time on my homestate of California!! It has taken me forever to write and losing half of the document in cyberspace does not help either. I should have it up hopefully in 1-2 weeks (I was thinking the same thing 4 weeks ago though.)  

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (5/10-12, likely voters, 3/8-10 in parens):

Joe Sestak (D): 45 (32)

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 43 (51)

Undecided: 12 (17)

^{(MoE: ±5%)}

Joe Sestak (D): 40 (39)

Pat Toomey (R): 45 (42)

Undecided: 15 (19)

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 41 (47)

Pat Toomey (R): 49 (41)

Undecided: 10 (12)

^{(MoE: ±4%)}

Research 2000 is the most recent pollster to find a small edge for Joe Sestak over Arlen Specter in the May 18 Democratic Senate primary, and also to find Sestak overperforming Specter versus Toomey in the general election. They also find Sestak with by far the most upside of any of the three candidates: Specter’s favorables are at 45/44 with 11% no opinion, Toomey’s are 45/40 with 15% no opinion, and Sestak’s are 39/26 with 35% no opinion.

Muhlenberg College for Allentown Morning Call (pdf) (5/10-13, likely voters, 5/9-12 in parentheses):

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 45 (44)

Joe Sestak (D): 43 (44)

Undecided: 12 (12)

Dan Onorato (D): 39 (39)

Anthony Williams (D): 14 (14)

Joe Hoeffel (D): 11 (11)

Jack Wagner (D): 11 (9)

Undecided: 25 (27)

^{(MoE: ±5%)}

Muhlenberg finds things going the other direction, with a move from a tie in its daily tracker to a 2-point lead for Specter. They also find almost no movement in the gubernatorial primary, with Dan Onorato still in a dominant position.

Summer’s here and the time is right for fighting in the street.

Charlie Crist is running as an independent!  And he’s going to tank!  But his running as a 3rd wheel helps Meek win a 3-way!

So the CW seems to go, at least on our side.

But, alas, I fear the numbers so far are telling a different story.

Polls right before and after Crist formally flipped to indy all said the same thing:  Crist leads a 3-way.  But don’t worry, Crist will tank.  Even a couple of the pollsters themselves, whose own polls showed Crist surging, said forget it, he’s at his high water mark.

But, really, is he?

What no one seems to say or think, that I think and now say out loud, is no one predicted a polling BOUNCE for Crist upon his making the switch.  People saw polls beforehand showing him competitive, but it’s clear his switch didn’t leave him merely “competitive” but shot him into the lead.

Did anyone really expect that?  No one said so, at least, which makes me conclude no one expected it.

And lo and behold, that polling bounce comes from indies and Democrats, not from any Republicans.  And it’s coming almost entirely at Meek’s expense, not Rubio’s.

So, alas, I’m left to conclude we seriously risk HI-01 The Sequal, with Charlie Crist starring as Ed Case, Kendrick Meek as Colleen Hanabusa, and Marco Rubio as our villain, Charles Djou.

Even if Crist slides, that still leaves Meek behind Rubio, which is where he’s consistently been in all polling.

We’re all enjoying this 3-way as campaign junkies, myself included.  And I always hoped and at times thought a 3-way gives Meek a better shot at victory than a one-on-one in an anti-Democratic environment.

But Meek needs a dramatic shift that includes more than just Crist fading if we’re going to take this seat.  And I fear that come election night, even the final weeks leading up to it, we might be regretting not having had a one-on-one here.

• AK-Sen: Moose man endorses Some Dude. That’s SSP shorthand for: Todd Palin just endorsed Joe Miller, the right-wing lawyer who’s taking on Lisa Murkowski in the Republican Senate primary. Recall that Mr. Palin has had some fairly fringey politics in the past (as with his membership in the Alaskan Independence Party), so I wonder if this was done with his wife’s approval (or, given her busy schedule these days, whether he was even able to block out some time with her to get her say-so). Given her rumored brief interest in taking on Murkowski in the primary herself (back when she was still Governor rather than itinerant book-selling motivational-speaking grifter), and her long-standing beef with all things Murkowksi, I’d suppose yes.

• CA-Sen: Carly Fiorina, trying to make up last-minute ground in the GOP primary against Tom Campbell, has thrown $1.1 million of her own money into her campaign. On top of previous loans to her campaign, that brings her total self-contributions to $3.6 million. Meg Whitman and Steve Poizner were both heard scoffing loudly.

• CT-Sen: Chalk this one up to bad, bad timing. Linda McMahon just sent out a mailer proposing to “put Connecticut back to work” by “increasing offshore drilling and production” (um, in Long Island Sound?). The mailer features a large, lovely picture of a (non-burning) offshore oil rig.

• NH-Sen: Has Kelly Ayotte just given up on any pretense of trying to look moderate? She’s appearing at a Susan B. Anthony List (the anti-abortion group) fundraiser today, headlined by Sarah Palin, along with a supporting cast like Rep. Steve King. I know that she still needs to survive her GOP primary, but her main opposition these days is looking like moderate Bill Binnie, not right-wing Ovide Lamontagne.

• NV-Sen: Steve Kornacki looks at the Nevada Senate race and the “what if” scenario if Sharron Angle somehow wins the primary. History indicates that Harry Reid can’t pin too many hopes on winning just because the GOP puts forth its most extreme candidate… maybe the biggest case in point, the Carter camp’s hopes that wacko Ronald Reagan would make it out of the GOP primary in 1980.

• NY-Sen: Wow, there’s actually going to be a GOP primary for the right to get mulched by Chuck Schumer! Nassau County Comptroller George Maragos, who’s only been on the job half a year, is already looking to move up. He’ll still have to get past political consultant Jay Townsend in the primary.

• UT-Sen: She stopped short of a formal endorsement, but fringey activist Cherilyn Eagar, who finished fourth at the GOP convention, said that Tim Bridgewater would be “an excellent senator” and complimented him on a “clean, honest race.” Eagar is back to her day job fighting the menace posed by gnomes.

• AL-Gov: I’m losing track of all the weird outside groups popping up to play dirty pool in the Alabama governor’s race. Today’s entrant is the mysterious New Sons of Liberty, whose main agenda seems to be Barack Obama’s birth certificate. They’ve reserved $1.1 million in TV airtime, although it’s unclear what they’ll be advertising about or on behalf of whom. The leader of a group, Basics Project, affiliated with the New Sons is mystified at where they would have gotten that kind of money, so it seems like they’re being used as a conduit for… well, somebody.

There’s also a new poll out of the Republican primary, by Republican pollster Baselice (on behalf of local PR firm Public Strategy Associates… there’s no word on whether any of the candidates are their client). They find Bradley Byrne barely leading Tim James 24-23. Roy Moore, who many thought would be the man to beat, is lagging at 18, with Robert Bentley at 12 and Bill Johnson at 2. The juicier numbers might be down in the AG race, where GOP incumbent Troy King is in all kinds of trouble. He’s losing 50-25 to challenger Luther Strange. There are three Dems in the AG field, most prominently James Anderson, ready to try to exploit the cat-fud fight.

• AR-Gov: One thing we didn’t mention in our writeup of Research 2000’s AR-Sen poll from yesterday is that they were the first pollster to throw the Arkansas Governor’s race into the mix. Incumbent Dem Mike Beebe routinely sports some of the highest favorables of any politician (64/24 here), and he seems immune from Arkansas’ reddish trend and the nation’s overall anti-incumbent fervor. He leads Republican former state Sen. Jim Keet, 62-19.

• CT-Gov: Former Stamford mayor Dan Malloy picked up another potentially useful endorsement today as we make our way toward Connecticut’s endorsing conventions. He got the nod from Rep. John Larson, the #4 man on the House totem pole. UPDATE: On the GOP side, ex-Rep. Chris Shays has an endorsement of his own: Lt. Gov. Michael Fedele.

• NY-Gov: It’s kind of more meta than we’d like, to report on an announcement about an announcement (about an announcement), but it sounds like we’re getting closer to pinning down a date from Andrew Cuomo. It’s being reported that he’ll announce his gubernatorial candidacy on or around May 25, the start of the state Democratic convention.

• AL-05: Rep. Parker Griffith is already up with a negative ad hitting one of his Republican primary opponents, Madison Co. Commissioner Mo Brooks, calling him a “career politician” and “big spender.” Brooks observed, perhaps correctly (although the Alabama primary is fast approaching), that an incumbent attacking a challenger is a big-time sign of weakness.

• GA-09: Former state Rep. Tom Graves, in the runoff for the special election in this seat against fellow Republican Lee Hawkins, got the endorsement from nearby Rep. Lynn “Uppity” Westmoreland. In a district this red, that may actually be a plus.

• MN-06: An unaffiliated independent, Troy Freihammer, may appear on the ballot, in addition to Independence Party nominee Bob Anderson. He needs 1,000 signatures by month’s end, though, so he may not make that hurdle. Getting him on might be a net plus for the Dems, as his website makes pretty clear he’s a Tenther and he’s only likely to take votes away from Michele Bachmann.

• OR-01: SurveyUSA is way down in the weeds here (although that’s because the poll where they get paid to do so, in this case by local TV affiliate KATU), with a look at the primaries in the 1st. In a four-way field on the GOP side, the NRCC’s preferred candidate, sports-industry consultant Rob Cornilles, leads at 31, beating mortgage broker John Kuzmanich at 19. The other guy whose name you hear in connection with this race, Stephan Brodhead (mostly because he somehow summoned up $298K CoH) is polling at all of 3, probably because his main campaign activity seems to be trolling the online comment sections of local newspapers and people have ascertained thusly that he’s a wackjob. Rep. David Wu is at 75% against token opposition on the Dem side.

• PA-04: What was supposed to be a victory lap for former US Attorney and loyal Bushie Mary Beth Buchanan has turned into a real dogfight with attorney Keith Rothfus, seemingly helped along by her apparent ineptitude at electoral politics. She’s currently drawing fire for a “deceitful” mailer which uses the National Rifle Association logo without its permission. Things have actually been going badly enough on the message-control front that improbable rumors have her dropping out of the race (with days to go), although her camp is saying her “major political announcement” is just a press conference to go on the offensive against Rothfus.

• Census: An interesting article from Stateline looks at what various states are doing to amp up Census participation. The real interest, here, is a neat map they’ve put together rating the states not on their overall participation percentages, but on the overall shifts in participation percentage from 2000 to 2010. Intriguingly, the biggest improvements in participation were clustered in the Deep South (especially North and South Carolina, both of which are on the cusp of adding another seat), while the Mountain West states suffered the most. California also seemed to fall off a bit, as budget limitations kept them from doing much outreach this time around, which could conceivably hurt their hopes of staying at 53 seats.

AR-Sen: Americans for Job Security, a shadowy group deservedly under fire for racist ads attacking Bill Halter, has now followed suit with an equally if not more disgusting mailer (click to see for yourself).

FL-Sen: So Charlie Crist’s gone and hired himself an interim campaign manager… who just happens to be his sister. It’s not surprising that Charlie’s having trouble finding staff. Dems are loyal to Kendrick Meek and will risk getting blackballed by the DSCC if they work against him. And the Republicans – you can bet they will fucking fry anyone who crosses them. Crist is definitely going to wind up with some slim pickins’, though if the Jeff Greene thing doesn’t work out, I’m sure Joe Trippi will be available.

NC-Sen: Former Rep. Eva Clayton, the first woman elected to Congress in North Carolina and a prominent backer of third-place finisher Ken Lewis, gave her endorsement to Elaine Marshall. Will Lewis himself follow suit?

AL-Gov: Is Artur Davis’s plan to win the war causing him to lose the battle? Ron Sparks just picked up the endorsement of two historically black political groups in Birmingham, which seem to have established a mutual shunning society with Davis thanks in large part to his vote against healthcare reform. Even if Davis does win the primary, will he kill the enthusiasm of black voters for the general?

CT-Gov: The Democratic state convention is the same weekend as the GOP meetup (see CT-04 item below). My understanding is that Dan Malloy has the nomination locked up, but Ned Lamont and his millions are only hoping to score the 15% they need to avoid petitioning to get on the ballot.

SC-Gov: Moose Lady in the Palmetto State today, endorsing Mark Sanford protégé Nikki Haley.

ME-Gov: Heh – it’s a poll, of sorts. Portland-based Critical Insights asked 600 likely voters if they could name any of the gubernatorial candidates, I assume by pure recall. Republican Les Otten was best-known, with 30% naming him, while Peter Mills was at 16%. Among Dems, Libby Mitchell scored 16% and Steve Rowe 11%. Everyone else was in single digits.

CT-04: Some Dude Will Gregory is bailing on the race, following Rob Russo, who quit a couple of weeks ago. Russo endorsed state Sen. Dan Debicella, but Gregory isn’t backing anybody. The GOP will gather next weekend (May 21st) for its convention, where a simple majority gets you the party’s endorsement, which Debicella is expected to pick up easily. However, 15% gets you on the primary ballot, and failing that, so will 2,000 signatures. The other three Republican hopefuls are all more or less saying they plan to fight on regardless of what happens at the convention.

DE-AL: This is either some unbelievable oppo or the product of an amazingly lucky Google search: A letter to the editor in a Jamaican newspaper written by businesswoman/heiress Michele Rollins has somehow surfaced, and it’s given developer Glen Urquhart a fat opening. In the letter, Rollins advocates that Jamaica – which she refers to as “our” country – develop itself as an international banking center (aka offshore tax evasion haven) to rival the Cayman Islands. Not only does this raise the weirdest dual-loyalties question I’ve ever seen, but given that Delaware is a big banking center, it’s causing Rollins extra grief. Also of note: The DE GOP will hold its convention this Saturday. Candidates need 60% to get the party’s endorsement (which is expected to go to Rollins), but it’s non-binding, and both Republicans plan to fight on to the September primary no matter what happens.

FL-08: Former state Sen. Dan Webster, like so many of his brethren, also seems ensnared in the burgeoning Republican Party of Florida Amex scandal. He spent $9K over a two-year period, pretty much entirely at restaurants, and isn’t apologizing for it. That’s a lot of pizza.

FL-25: Joe Garcia is hammering state Rep. David Rivera for a “political stunt” which cost taxpayers several hundred thousand dollars. Rivera supported a law which required travel agencies arranging flights to Cuba to post six-figure bonds. The agencies successfully fought the law in court and were also awarded their legal costs, which amounted to $365K. This is a clever hit, and it also shows that Garcia isn’t afraid to challenge anti-Castro fanaticism.

HI-01: AFSCME funneled $100K back in April to a group called Workers for a Better Hawaii, which has since spent about $75K on radios ads against Charles Djou and Ed Case. Perhaps the scariest thing is that the NRCC hasn’t spent a dime on this race (thought the RNC transferred some $94K to the Hawaii GOP back in March).

ID-01: Remember back in 1997, when George Lucas re-released Star Wars? Yeah, he shoulda stopped there. GOP candidate Vaughn Ward shouldn’t have even bothered with the re-release: He tried to re-trot-out an endorsement from the American Conservative Union in order to bolster his wingnut bonafides… but he put out a press release about this all the way back in November. That is sad. Even sadder is the Bill Sali-esque excuse making from Ward’s campaign manager, who – when called on it – claimed, “I just got a new Mac and I’m still trying to figure it out.” Oh god.

IN-08: I like it: The D-Trip is already going up on the air with an ad bashing Republican Larry Buchson on a tried-and-true theme: social security privatization. No word on the size of the buy, though apparently it will go up for a week in Evansville, which is not a costly market.

MA-05: So Niki Tsongas demurred on whether or not she’d want Barack Obama to campaign with her. While Scott Brown did win this district 56-43, I’m really not sure Tsongas wants to be playing cringe politics. However, the NYT – which seems to think she’s in real trouble – cutely points out that her best-funded GOP challenger has not raised “as much” as Tsongas has. The truth: Tsongas $863K, Jonathan Golnik $177K. P.S. I note that Rep. Brian Higgins (NY-27) was eager to get a photo op with Obama yesterday.

NY-14: Hah – Reshma Saujani almost does something I might approve of, except I don’t. She’s berating Carolyn Maloney for not supporting President Obama and the DCCC because she didn’t raise money for last night’s fundraiser (see item below). Ordinarily at SSP, we’re the loudest when it comes to demanding incumbents support their party committees – but this is ridiculous bullshit. The D-Trip always goes easy when incumbents face serious races, whether primaries or generals. But in any event, Maloney points out that she has in fact raised over a quarter mil for the DCCC this cycle. I guess Saujani has a lot of credibility when it comes to supporting the D-Trip and Obama, though: She’s donated $0 lifetime to the DCCC and was a big Clinton backer.

PA-12: SEIU just dropped a cool $200K on TV ads to go after Tim Burns. Let’s just hope those recent polls are right…. Meanwhile, Scott Brown is coming to campaign for Burns, while Sen. Bob Casey will be doing the same for Mark Critz.

DCCC: Barack Obama was in NYC last night, doing a fundraiser for the D-Trip at the St. Regis hotel. He raked in $1.3 million (tickets started at $15K a pop).

Research 2000 for The Great Pumpkin (5/10-12, likely voters, 5/2-4 in parens, 3/15-17 in brackets):

Daniel Mongiardo (D): 39 (39) [47]

Jack Conway (D): 36 (32) [31]

Other: 10 (12) [7]

Undecided: 15 (17) [15]

Rand Paul (R): 45 (44) [40]

Trey Grayson (R): 35 (32) [28]

Other: 7 (7) [14]

Undecided: 13 (17) [18]

(MoE: ±5%)

In his post, Markos has trend lines dating back to his last poll of this race, commissioned in March. However, R2K also polled this race just a week ago for a group of local news outlets. I’ve inserted those numbers in parens, and the March numbers in brackets. Between this poll and SurveyUSA‘s latest poll showing Mongiardo only ahead by a single point, I think we can say that Conway is making his move. But will it be enough on Tuesday?

General election nums (March in brackets):

Dan Mongiardo (D): 38 [37]

Rand Paul (R): 43 [46]

Undecided: 19 [17]

Dan Mongiardo (D): 36 [38]

Trey Grayson (R): 42 [43]

Undecided: 22 [19]

Jack Conway (D): 39 [39]

Rand Paul (R): 42 [45]

Undecided: 19 [16]

Jack Conway (D): 35 [36]

Trey Grayson (R): 43 [44]

Undecided: 22 [20]

(MoE: ±4%)

The situation looks mildly better for Democrats against Rand Paul, but a looming weakness remains: both Mongiardo and Conway are fairly beat up, with favorables at 47-42 and 46-44, respectively. Grayson’s at 52-27 and Rand Paul sits at 56-27. Hopefully the Democratic nominee can do a better job exploiting Paul’s weirdo politics than Trey Grayson has been able to do in the Republican primary.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (5/10-12, likely voters, 4/26-28 in parens):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 46 (43)

Bill Halter (D): 37 (35)

D.C. Morrison: 6 (7)

Undecided: 11 (15)

(MoE: ±5%)

At this point, it doesn’t look likely that Halter will be able to come out on top next Tuesday, but will Paulist weirdo D.C. Morrison eat up enough of the vote to force this one to a runoff? It could happen.

And for the first time, R2K has taken a look at the Republican primary:

John Boozman (R): 46

Jim Holt! (R): 19

Gilbert Baker (R): 12

Kim Hendren (R): 6

Curtis Coleman (R): 2

Other: 2

Undecided: 13

(MoE: ±5%)

Again, the big thing to watch next Tuesday is whether or not one or both of these races go to a runoff. For our sake, let’s hope they both do.

General election match-ups:

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 40 (42)

John Boozman (R): 54 (52)

Undecided: 6 (6)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 39 (40)

Gilbert Baker (R): 45 (47)

Undecided: 16 (13)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 40 (40)

Kim Hendren (R): 46 (50)

Undecided: 14 (10)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 41

Jim Holt! (R): 44

Undecided: 15

Bill Halter (D): 41 (42)

John Boozman (R): 50 (47)

Undecided: 9 (11)

Bill Halter (D): 42 (43)

Gilbert Baker (R): 42 (44)

Undecided: 16 (13)

Bill Halter (D): 42 (43)

Kim Hendren (R): 42 (45)

Undecided: 16 (12)

Bill Halter (D): 42

Jim Holt! (R): 43

Undecided: 15

(MoE: ±4%)

While Halter will have an incredible challenge ahead of him if he can pull out a win in this primary, Lincoln and her 39-55 favorable rating look like burnt toast.