Month: May 2010

Arkansas, Oregon & Pennsylvania Results Thread #3

3:07am: The AR-03 (R) runoff has been called for Womack and Bledsoe.

1:52am: OR-01’s R primary has finally been called by the AP for Rob Cornilles, who beat opponents Keller and Kuzmanich 40-29-28. We’re still waiting on one race: which wingnut squeaks into the Republican runoff in AR-03 against Steve Womack: will it be Cecile Bledsoe or Gunner DeLay? Bledsoe has pulled into a tiny lead (13% each, with a 182 vote spread, with 510 of 533 reporting).

12:54am: The AP has called the OR-Gov GOP primary for Chris Dudley. I forget which pundit made the point, but this sets up possibly the tallest major election ever, if you laid the two candidates end-to-end. At any rate, I think Dudley poses less of a challenge for Kitz than would Alley, who came across more, uh, substantial.

12:49am: Two last races out there. In the wingnut central that is AR-03, Gunner DeLay and Cecile Bledsoe are duking it out for the right to go into a runoff with Steve Womack (91% counted). And in OR-01, Rob Cornilles has a 10-point lead over Douglas Keller, but the vote’s still being counted.

12:42am: The AP calls PA-06 (D) for Manan Trivedi and PA-17 (R) for Dave Argall.

12:34am: All 100% are reporting in PA-17 as well, and David Argall seems to have won, beating Frank Ryan 32-31 (with a 900 vote spread). AP hasn’t called this one, yet.

12:22am: Trivedi wins! 100% in according to the AP, and he’s up 21,338 to 20,667, a 50.8% to 49.2% victory! WOOHOO!!!! GREAT NIGHT!

12:12am: Manan Trivedi is up 672 votes, and it looks like there are very few if any precincts outstanding. Hard to tell, though, since the SoS doesn’t say, and AP is lagging.

12:09am: AP calls OR-05 (R) for Scott Bruun. He’ll face freshman Rep. Kurt Schrader in the fall.

12:05am: Alright, where’s the foul up with the PA-19 (R) numbers? According to the AP, Rep. Todd Platts dispatched his primary challenger, Michael Smeltzer, with ease – 70-30. But the PA SoS shows him barely surviving, at 54-46. State Rep. Eugene DePasquale (D) tweets at us that the 70-30 figure is correct.

12:03am: Ah well – the AP says John Boozman won’t face a runoff. Fortunately, the Dem runoff in Arkansas is in just three weeks, so we won’t face a prolonged exposure like we do in NC (six weeks).

12:02am: The clock’s struck midnight, and as we like to say around here, we’re getting down to stems and seeds, folks. The AP has called PA-03 (R) for Mike Kelly, who wins with 28% to Paul Huber’s 26%.

11:59pm: A moment ago, Bill Halter temporarily pulled into the lead (by 86 votes) over Blanche Lincoln. She’s back ahead now by some 1,400 votes, but it would be interesting if Halter finished the night ahead.

11:55pm: Following these PA races is a bit of a pain — the AP is updating at a sluggish pace compared to the DoS, but the DoS won’t tell us where any outstanding votes are. Still, between the two, we have some good news for Manan Trivedi. Trivedi leads Pike by 800 votes according to the latest DoS count. The latest AP count (91% of the vote) indicates that almost all of Chester County is in (where Pike romped by 67-33), with a few outstanding precincts in Montgomery County, where Trivedi beat Pike. Great news.

11:40pm: What else is still on the board? Well, John Boozman is desperately trying to avoid getting teabagged into a runoff – he’s at 51.2% now with 60% reporting. And things just got a LOT tighter in PA-06, where Manan Trivedi is at 50.7% to 49.3% for Doug Pike now.

11:35pm: AP calls the OR-Sen R primary for law professor Jim Huffman, even though he’s only at 42%; none of his many opponents broke 15%.

11:32pm: Now we’re getting down to just a handful of races left. AR-01 (D) is going to be a runoff between Tim Wooldridge and Chad Causey. AR-02 (D) will be a runoff between Joyce Elliott and Robbie Wills.

11:31pm: So three races left in Pennsylvania: PA-06, PA-03 (where 100% are reporting but the race is uncalled), and PA-17.

11:30pm: Looks like our friends down in PA-06 have returned from a phat ganja break – Trivedi now has 18,132 to Pike’s 15,521. The problem is that the PA SoS doesn’t say how many precincts are outstanding, and the AP is well behind the SoS. But I’m guessing we’re around 70-75% counted.

11:28pm: On the R side in OR-Gov, with 40% reporting (see how fast it goes when all the ballots are already in hand?), it’s Chris Dudley with the slam dunk, or at least the lightly-contested layup: he’s at 41, Allen Alley at 32, John Lim at 13, and Bill Sizemore proving you can still be competitive even after indictment, at 8.

11:24pm: Well, that was easy – the AP just called OR-Gov (D) for Kitz. Kinda gotta wonder why Bradbury never just got out of the way in the first place….

11:21 pm: Detouring down into the weeds in Oregon: the nonpartisan race for Superintendent of Public Instruction is being decided today, not in November, because only two people ran. The incumbent Susan Castillo (whomever everyone knows is the D) is beating Ron Maurer (the R) 55-45. Also, in the Treasurer primary, incumbent appointee Ted Wheeler is beating Rick Metsger 63-37.

11:16pm: ALERT! AR-Sen (D) will go to a run-off. And the tally (with 50% in) is a lot closer than polls suggested it was likely to be. Blanche Lincoln is at 43.5% and Bill Halter is at 42.3%.

11:15pm: In OR-01 (R), it’s Rob Cornilles 38, Douglas Keller 32, John Kuzmanich 28 with 36% in. In OR-05 (R), it’s Scott Bruun 59, “Not That” Fred Thompson 42 (23% in).

11:13pm: Miles to go before we sleep: Out in Oregon, John Kitzhaber is crushing Bill Bradbury in the Dem gov primary, 69-27, with 20% reporting. Chris Dudley has a 41-33 lead over Allen Alley on the GOP side.

11:01pm: So it looks like the PA SoS is further along than Politico. They show PA-06 already at 54-46 Trivedi.

11:00pm: Polls have just closed in Oregon.

10:58pm: Gonna guess run-off in AR-01 as well, where Tim Wooldridge leads Chad Causey 34-28.

10:57pm: With about a third in, Joye Elliott leads AR-02 over Robbie Wills, 36-33. Looks like there will be a runoff here.

10:53pm: Alright, the AP just called it for Tom Marino, who wins with an unspiring 42% or so. He’ll square off against Chris Carney in the fall.

10:50pm: Still some unsettled GOP primaries in Pennsylvania. PA-03: Mike Kelly has a narrow 29-26 lead over Paul Huber with all but 7% counted. PA-10: Tom Marino hanging on with 42% (87% counted). PA-17: Dave Argall at just 35 with Frank Ryan at 32, with 82% in.

10:47pm: So here’s a look at what’s going on: In AR-Sen, Lincoln is up just 44-42 over Halter with a third of the vote in. John Boozman keeps flirting with the 50% mark. In PA-06, Manan Trivedi is up 59-41 with half the vote in; our model shows a 54% victory for him.

Polls will close in Oregon at 11pm Eastern. Let’s rock this party west coast style! Laiiiid back.

RESULTS:

Arkansas, Kentucky & Pennsylvania Results Thread #2

10:48pm: Calling all Swingnuts! Let’s make ’em hear us over here!

10:40pm: LOL – Tim Burns wins his primary, according to the AP. Lucky guy gets to face off again against Rep.-elect Mark Critz in November.

10:37pm: Check out AR-Sen – Lincoln is now down to 45-41 over Halter. DC Morrison is at a surprisingly sprightly 14% – a rare over-performance from pre-election polling for a classic “third wheel” candidate. A little over 27% of the vote is in. Also, John Boozman just slipped below the 50% mark, while Jim Holt! is in second place.

10:33pm: Also for what it’s worth, the Swing State Project is calling PA-12 for Democrat Mark Critz.

10:29pm: DRUDGE SIREN ALERT: In PA-12, Tim Burns has conceded to Democrat Mark Critz! Woo hoo!

10:26pm: Crossing off another race off this list, the AP has called PA-17 for Tim Holden, who’s sitting on 67% of the vote. On the GOP side, David Argall leads Frank Ryan by 35-33 with 79% of the vote in.

10:24pm: The AP calls PA-11 for Paul Kanjorski… The dude’s currently sitting at 50.1% of the vote. Not exactly a ringing vote of confidence!

10:22pm: In PA-04, the AP has called the race for attorney Keith Rothfus, who obliterated NRCC favorite Mary Beth Buchanan.

10:20pm: With 233 precincts reporting, Critz leads Burns by 54-43. Our county analysis tells us that Critz is running ahead of where he needs to be in order to win this.

10:19pm: The AP has called the Pennsylvania Democratic primary for Joe Sestak!

10:17pm: Possible upset special? In AR-02, Joyce Elliott is leading House Speaker Robbie Wills by 42-28 with just 7% in. (Of course, if no one hits 50%, this sucker is going to a runoff.)

10:15pm: The SSP team is projecting Joe Sestak to win his primary by around 79,000 votes.

10:08pm: The AP has called two GOP House races in Arkansas, even though only a small chunk of the vote has been counted. In AR-01, Rick Crawford gets the nod, and in AR-02, Tim Griffin does as well. Dem contests in both races are still very much undecided.

10:04pm: Damn, son – the AP calls KY-Sen for Jack Conway! Woohah!

10:02pm: With 5% now in, Blanche Lincoln is up 46-41 on Bill Halter, with DC Morrison taking 13%. John Boozman on the GOP side is at 53%, just outside of runoff territory.

10:01pm: PA-06: Manan Trivedi up 60-40 with 37% in.

10:00pm: On the GOP side in PA-17, semi-hyped David Argall is beating Frank Ryan 41-32 with a little over half the vote in. Tim Holden is at a much healthier 70-30 over Dow-Ford.

9:58pm: Rep. Todd Platts (PA-19), who we theorized might have pissed off the teabaggers by wanting to become head of the GAO, is handily dispatching his opponent 72-26 (with less than 10% of the vote in).

9:57pm: Was PA-12 more like NY-23 than we thought? Establishment fave Tim Burns is only leading angry outsider (and 2008 nominee) Bill Russell 54-46 in the primary.

9:56pm: The AP has called the PA-Gov Dem primary for (unsurprisingly) Dan Onorato. He’ll take on Tom Corbett in the fall.

9:52pm: In PA-03, it’s a dogfight between the two dudes who spent the most money: Mike Kelly’s at 29% and Paul Huber’s at 28%, though Huber lead earlier. About 44%’s been counted.

9:51pm: With 40% of the vote in, Sestak now has a narrow lead over Specter, 51-49. But Specter isn’t winning many counties, and the remaining vote seems favorable to the challenger.

9:50pm: Mark Critz is doing well in PA-12. He’s up 58-40 with 21% reporting. Much of that is from Dem-friendly areas, but our model shows him improving 1.3% over recent Dem performance in the district.

9:48pm: Over in PA-10, hyped GOP recruit Tom Marino is leading, but with a pretty blechy 43% (27% counted). He has two opponents, though, who are splitting the remainder, so this may be good enough.

9:46pm: PA-06: With 10% in, SSP favorite Manan Trivedi is up 63-37 over Doug Pike. Let’s pray that holds!

9:43pm: A bunch more votes have poured in in PA-17, and Tim Holden is now on top 61-39 with around a quarter tallied. Still pretty meager, considering Dow-Ford has spent zilch.

Results are still coming in at a fast and furious clip in Arkansas, Kentucky and Pennsylvania. We’ll have Oregon results up later — 11pm-ish.

RESULTS:

RESOURCES: SSP Election Preview | PA-12 maps

Kentucky, Pennsylvania & Arkansas Primary Results Thread

9:43pm: We’re just chewin’ ’em up and spitting ’em out, huh? Let’s move this conversation over here.

9:34pm: So our model is still liking Conway, to the tune of 7,700 votes. Serious squeaker, though.

9:27pm: I’m gonna guess Paul Kanjorski will hang on. With 28% in, he has 53% of the vote, while the once-touted Corey O’Brien is barely ahead of no-name Brian Kelly, 25-22. Numbers look rather like the IL-03 primary against Dan Lipinski in 2008.

9:25pm: I’m loving it – Keith Rothfus is absolutely hammering GOP establishment fave Mary Beth Buchanan, 64-36 with 25% reporting in PA-04.

9:23pm: 19% reporting in PA now, and Specter leads Sestak by 52-48.

9:20pm: With 25 precincts in, Mark Critz leads Burns by 59-39. These are some Dem-friendly precincts though, but Critz is holding down decent margins here based on our model.

9:17pm: With 3068 precincts in, Conway leads by only 45-42 (or just over 12K votes), but jeffmd is currently projecting Conway to win by 8,000.

9:15pm: Wow, look at Dem Rep. Tim Holden. With 18 precincts in, the guy’s getting spanked by 59-41.

9:13pm: 17 precincts are now in for PA-12, and Critz leads Burns by 59-38. This is fairly Dem-friendly turf, though.

9:10pm: Our latest projection has Conway ultimately winning by something around 4,000 votes.

9:09pm: 2846 precincts are now in, and Conway is now back up over 20,000.

9:05pm: With 2805 precincts in, Conway’s lead has dipped just below 20,000 votes. Our projection is still pointing to a 44-44 result.

9:03pm: Specter’s up by 58-42 with just 7% in.

9:00pm: 2751 precincts are reporting in Kentucky (leaving 824 on the table), and Conway’s up by 46-41, or just over 20,000 votes.

8:59pm: Heh — with just 7 precincts reporting in Arkansas, DC Morrison has 18%, and Halter leads Lincoln by 42-40.

8:54pm: Hoo boy — the abacus crew at SSP World HQ tells me that the latest projection shows a 44-44 race in Kentucky, with Conway winning a squeaker by 3,000 votes. However, we admit that our methods are crude.

8:50pm: Back in Kentucky, with 2654 precincts in (out of 3575), Conway still leads by 47-41 — or just under 22,000 votes.

8:47pm: You can also find the PA-12 special election results buried far down this page. They have Critz up by 59-41 in the single precinct reporting.

8:45pm: For PA-12 special election results, keep this link handy. Lots of other links are showing the primary nums.

8:43pm: We’re now up to 2377 precincts in Kentucky, and Conway leads Mongiardo by 47-41 (or about 23,000 votes).

8:41pm: KY-Sen turnout (so far): 328K voters in Dem primary, 212K in the GOP primary.

8:40pm: 2281, and it’s tightened to 47-40.

8:36pm: We’ve got 2237 precincts outta the oven in KY, and Conway still leads by 48-40. (Just 36 uncounted Jeffco counties, for those keeping score, though Conway is doing well enough in some of the smaller counties, too.)

8:32pm: The polls have just closed in Arkansas.

8:30pm: With 4 precincts reporting in PA, Sestak leads Specter by 131 votes to 114.

8:28pm: We’ve got two competing spreadsheets running by the eggheads at SSP Labs. One is projecting a 45-43 Conway win — the other a 46-42 Conway win.

8:25pm: 2009 precincts are now in, and Conway’s still sitting at 48-40. That includes almost all of Fayette County now, where Conway won by 52-38.

8:23pm: The boys down at SSP Labs tell me that Conway is, very crudely, projected to win by 45-43 right now. Variations in turnout could muck that one up, though.

8:21pm: 1845 precincts in — over half of the vote now — and Conway leads Mongiardo by 48-40. There’s only 60 precincts left in Jeffco to count, while Fayette still has 91 precincts taking a ganja break.

8:18pm: Hmmm — some voters were accidentally given two ballots in PA-12. Well, let’s hope that this one doesn’t come down to 178 votes!

8:15pm: 1703 precincts are now in, and Conway’s up by 48-39.

8:11pm: For whatever it’s worth, our crude back-of-the-envelope analysis has switched from predicting a Mongiardo win to a Conway victory. Conway’s also posting a narrow lead in Daviess County, home of Owensboro.

8:09pm: 1614 precincts are in, and Conway is holding onto his 49-39 lead over Mongiardo.

Polls have just closed in Pennsylvania. We’re still tracking the results in KY-Sen (D) and will bring you PA results as soon as they roll in. Arkansas (8:30pm ET) and Oregon (11pm ET) close later.

RESULTS:

RESOURCES: SSP Election Preview | PA-12 maps

Kentucky Primary Results Thread

8:06pm: Now that polls have closed in Pennsylvania, let’s move this block party to a new thread.

8:03pm: 1449 precincts now in, and Conway leads by 49-39. We still have 91 precincts outstanding in Fayette and 96 in Jeffco. After that, we’re looking at a lot of itty bitty counties.

7:59pm: In KY-06, Andy Barr has won the GOP nod to face off against Dem Rep. Ben Chandler.

7:58pm: The AP has called KY-03 for Todd Lally, in a major voter backlash against Pizza Hut.

7:55pm: 1341 precincts are in, and Conway’s lead has expanded to 50-38. Only 96 precincts in Jeffco remain.

7:52pm: Aaron hears that the Mongiardo camp is worried about low turnout in rural counties.

7:50pm: Ladies and gentleman… the Associated Press has now called your 2010 Kentucky Republican Senatorial nominee… Rand Paul!

7:48pm: 1160 precincts are in, and Conway is up by 49-39. 93 precincts in Fayette remain, and Jeffco remains untouched.

7:41pm: 1004 precincts are in, and Conway leads by 49-38. There are still 127 precincts outstanding in Fayette and 186 in Jeffco. Will that be enough to help Conway hold on? Our crude back of the envelope says maybe not, but I’m also hearing signs of optimism from a source close to the Conway campaign. We’ll see!

7:36pm: 838 precincts are in statewide (out of 3575), and Conway leads 51-37. Keep in mind, though, that Jeffco is now well over half in (Conway is crushing by 60-27 there).

7:34pm: And over in KY-03, Air Force vet Todd Lally is beating the somewhat better-funded Pizza Hut franchise baron Jeff Reetz by 53-16. Someone I haven’t heard of before today, Larry Hausman, is sitting in second with 25%. Go figure!

7:30pm: Fayette is now half in (giving Conway 52-38 there so far), keeping the score at 47-40 statewide with 572 precincts reporting.

7:23pm: Mongiardo has narrowed the gap in liberal Fayette County — he’s now only down by 51-38 there. Overall, with 509 precincts reporting statewide, it’s still 47-40 Conway.

7:21pm: 465 precincts are now in, including an additional 142 from Jeffco, pushing Conway to a 47-40 lead.

7:14pm: 255 precincts in, and Mongiardo leads Grayson by 46-42. Still only 12 of 524 precincts in from Jeffco, though.

7:13pm: Ouch — so far, Trey Grayson is losing his home county of Boone by 30 points to Rand Paul.

7:08pm: 192 precincts now in statewide (including a handful from Jefferson County, where Louisville is located), and Mongiardo has regained a 45-43 lead.

7:06pm: In KY-06, attorney Andy Barr is leading a very divided GOP field with 69% of the vote. Just under 10% of precincts are reporting there.

7:02pm: With 141 precincts in, Conway has now pulled ahead by 44-43. Note that no precincts in Conway’s home base of Louisville have reported yet. Paul’s leading Grayson by 55-39.

6:53pm: We’re up to 44 of 3575 (still only around 1%). Mongiardo leads Conway 48-39 overall (with a surprising 7% for Deb Darlene Price); Conway is up 52-35 in Fayette County, where he’ll need to do well if he’s going to have a chance (it’s the location of the college town of Lexington and the state’s 2nd most populous county). Over in KY-06, Andy Barr seems to have the edge in the GOP primary, at 66% with 3% reporting. (C)

6:37pm: Alright, time seems to be progressing in the normal manner again. With 10 precincts apparently reporting, Mongiardo leads Conway 51-37. Paul leads Grayson 50-43.

6:31pm: I believe we can call this the Curious Election of Benjamin Button.

6:24pm: It looks like the AP (and, subsequently, the Politico) are having some early jitters — for some reason, the number of precincts reported keeps going down on their pages, but the total number of votes is increasing. Whatever the case, Mongiardo now leads Conway 50-38, and Paul leads Grayson by 48-45. Keep in mind that these early counties are generally expected to be more favorable territory for Mongiardo.

6:16pm: With just over 1% of precincts reporting, Mongiardo leads Conway by 56-34. Paul leads Grayson by 49-43.

Polls will close in the Eastern time zone portions of Kentucky at 6pm, and in the CT areas an hour after that. We’ll be using this thread to follow the returns in the KY-Sen, KY-03, and KY-06 primaries. We’ll check in with Pennsylvania (8pm ET), Arkansas (8:30pm ET), and Oregon (10pm 11pm ET) later in the evening.

RESULTS: Associated Press | KY SoS | Politico

RESOURCES: SSP Election Preview | PA-12 maps

SSP Daily Digest: 5/18 (Afternoon Edition)

• CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal just ended his presser, and it was forceful and an attempt to go back on the offensive. (Reid Wilson‘s tweet sums it up pretty well: “Shot: Dick Blumenthal’s press conference. Chaser: Mark Sanford’s press conference. Study in opposites.”) He admitted to misspeaking on “in Vietnam,” but went after the NYT for the implied impugning of those who served stateside. Good damage control, but we’ll have to wait a few days to see if it takes. The local establishment seems to be taking a wait-and-see attitude, too, as Joe Lieberman is publicly saying he’s still undecided on the race (recall, though, that Blumenthal endorsed Ned Lamont, and Lieberman tends to be one who holds a grudge); the DSCC, though, is cranking things up defending Blumenthal.

Meanwhile, the GOP has been taking credit for funneling this oppo research to the Times… however, after initially taking a premature victory lap around the ring bellowing with arms raised, the Linda McMahon camp has suddenly pulled earlier references to feeding the info to the NYT off its website.

• FL-Sen: Billionaire Jeff Greene is going up with not one but two different introductory TV ads, calling himself a job-creating outsider. Looks like he’s serious about spending some major cash on his rather quixotic bid in the Democratic primary,.

• KY-Sen (pdf): One last poll sneaked across the finish line, from Republican pollster Magellan (not working on either candidate’s behalf). In their poll of the GOP primary, they find, consistent with most pollsters, a big edge for Rand Paul; he leads Trey Grayson 55-30. PPP has some pretty tantalizing tidbits of cat fud that they found in the crosstabs of their GOP primary poll, though. Grayson supporters, i.e. establishment Republicans who probably secretly like their earmarks, really, really, don’t like Rand Paul. Grayson supporters give Paul 23/53 favorables, and only 40% of them say they’ll vote for Paul, while 43% flat-out say they won’t vote for him.

• WA-Sen: While the Glenn Thrushes and Chris Cillizzas of the world seem to have some inside information that leads them to say that Dino Rossi is on the precipice of announcing his Senate run, there’s just nothing in the local press that seems to bear that out. Instead, all we’ve got is a lot of lower-level Republicans getting impatient and starting to take each their frustrations out on each other. Clark Co. Commissioner Tom Mielke sent around an e-mail to various other state GOPers saying that Rossi’s dithering is angering the base and hurting Republican chances of picking up the seat. The Seattle Times somehow got ahold of the e-mail and a bunch of responses from other insiders, if you want a glimpse behind the state GOP’s curtain. Another insider, Mathew Manweller, pointed out that Mielke has an axe to grind as a Don Benton supporter, but also told the Times over the weekend that “Dino probably has to make a decision here and let people know within a week or so, or the milk is going to sour.”

• WI-Sen: As expected, wealthy businessman Ron Johnson formally announced yesterday that he’s getting in the GOP primary to go against Russ Feingold, joining three other never-before-elected rich guys. Wondering how Johnson made his fortune? Just one word: plastics.

• IA-Gov: In case the ideological fault lines in the GOP gubernatorial primary in Iowa couldn’t get any clearer, Mitt Romney announced he’s endorsing Terry Branstad for a return engagement. In fact, this may say more about Romney’s plans than anything, as he seems to be trying to monopolize the sane/establishment wing of the party for 2012 against a Palin/Huckabee split among the nutters.

• NY-Gov: The Conservative Party is trying once again to upstage the Republicans in New York; their latest move involves moving their nominating convention up to May 28, three days before the GOP nominating convention. They’re committed to backing Rick Lazio, and this is a move designed to force the GOP’s hand into backing Lazio as well, rather than party-switching Steve Levy, in order to avoid a NY-23-style split between the GOP and the Conservatives.

• WI-Gov: Looking for some traction in the GOP primary, Mark Neumann is accusing Milwaukee Co. Exec Scott Walker of “working part-time” so he can campaign. (Does any officeholder not work part-time in the months leading up to an election?) Meanwhile, there was a big-time Walker walk-back, after he initially voiced displeasure with Arizona’s anti-illegal immigrant law and then got deluged with negative comments on his Facebook page. Now suddenly he’s for it, saying he changed his mind after talking to the Arizona state senator who proposed it.

• WY-Gov: Well, this is progress… I guess. Natrona County Democratic chair R.C. Johnson says she’ll take one for the team and run for Governor on the Democratic line if no other viable candidate does. (The state party convention came and went last weekend without any takers.) Don’t bowl us all over with your enthusiasm, R.C.!

• HI-01: Three of Hawaii’s Democratic ex-Governors (John Waihee, George Ariyoshi, and Ben Cayetano) put out coordinated statements urging voters to, whatever else they might do, not vote for Charles Djou in the messed-up special election. Waihee said Djou winning would be a “nightmare.”

• SC-05: Well, this is more than a little tasteless: the NRCC issued a statement referring to “Amnesiac John Spratt” and accusing him of having “completely forgotten” who he’s working for. Spratt, of course, recently revealed that he’s in the early stages of Parkinson’s Disease, and his opponent, Mick Mulvaney, has carefully steered clear of turning that into a campaign issue. Have no fear, Mick, the NRCC’s always willing to do what you aren’t.

• VA-05 (pdf): So what’s it like being in the World of Hurt? Pretty good, at least according to his own internal poll. Robert Hurt claims a POS poll gives him 35% of the vote in the GOP primary, with his nearest rival, Ken Boyd (the other non-teabagger in the race) lagging at 10%. The assorted teabaggers accumulated together account for another 9%.

• Things in General: CQ has a moderately interesting article today on other pending anti-incumbent primaries. Mostly I’m including it because one quote lingered with me, and I wanted to blockquote it for future reference, as a useful bit of perspective for anyone who gets a little too worked up about whatever’s being hyperbolically, breathlessly being reported on in the news any given day:

“We overreact to everything here in Washington,” said longtime Democratic media consultant Steve Murphy.

Predictions Thread

Hope your Sorta-Super Tuesday is going better than Blanche Lincoln‘s: she was turned away from her standard casting-a-ballot-at-her-home-polling-place photo-op because she’d requested an absentee ballot at her Virginia home. She hadn’t filled out the absentee ballot, so she was left to fill out a provisional ballot instead.

So, what do you think is going to happen today? Can Joe Sestak preserve his last-minute surge against Arlen Specter, or can the Pennsylvania Democratic machine turn out the votes to save Specter? Can Blanche Lincoln clear the 50% bar to avoid a runoff, or will she have to go mano-a-mano against Bill Halter again? Does Jack Conway have enough last-minute momentum to win by a nose against Dan Mongiardo? What’s going to happen in the special election in PA-12, where polls show a dead heat? Let us know in the comments! No babka at stake today… just fighting for honor!

On top of all that, there’s the Kentucky GOP primary, gubernatorial primaries in Oregon and Pennsylvania, and a dump-truck load of primaries in House races everywhere. Check out our epic-length election preview to get your bearings on all these races.

UPDATE (James): Also, if you’ve got any results links for any of the races tonight, please post ’em in the comments! Thanks!

StephenCLE’s 2010 House Predictions – May Ratings Update

StephenCLE’s 2010 House Predictions – May Ratings Update!

Hello my dear SSPers, and welcome to another edition of StephenCLE’s House Predictions.  You are locked on to my third monthly installment, this being the Ratings Update for the month of May.  

What has happened in the last 30 days?  Well first off, we had a massive flood in Tennessee, a huge oil spill in the Gulf south of Louisiana, tornadoes in Oklahoma, etc.  It was a very bad month for natural disasters.  On top of that, we had a major stock market dump about a week ago thanks to the debt crisis in Greece and several other European nations.  These events are probably only serving to heighten the anger directed toward Washington.  On the other hand, we had a very positive jobs report in April, and the economy is showing major signs of turning around.  Polls are showing democrats fairing better for the most part, most notably in the Senate races, but we’ve seen some fairly distressing House polls as well.

My feeling overall is that the field has improved marginally for the GOP over the past 30 days.  A lot of attention right now is on the two upcoming special elections in democratic districts.  In Hawaii-1, Charles Djou is heading toward a victory against Ed Case and Colleen Hanabusa, who are dividing the Democratic vote.  In Pennsylvania-12, republican Tim Burns and democrat Mark Critz are locked in a tight battle.  I feel that Critz will pull out a close win there.  Since I am operating under the assumption of wins by Critz and Djou, the current congress numbers have been adjusted to 256 democrats and 179 republicans, and those two are listed as incumbents on the big board.  Obviously, if HI-1 stays blue, or if PA-12 goes red, then that will change the math as well as the rating on those seats for November.

So without further ado, here we go!

May Ratings Changes:

1.Arizona-8 – Likely D to Lean D – It appears that the Arizona GOP has really gone hammer and tongs after Gabrielle Giffords, and indeed several challengers put up good fundraising last quarter, most notably Paton, who raised over 500k.  Giffords is popular, and has a huge war chest, but I could see the newly passed immigration law causing trouble for her since her district lies on the border.  

2.California-18 – Solid D to Likely D – I have begun tracking this race primarily because of the incumbent’s relatively poor financial situation in a district that only leans democrat.  

3.Nevada-1 – Likely D to Solid D – With the recent implosion of Sue Lowden, I think it’s unlikely that the republican candidates up-ballot will run close enough in NV-1 to put Shelley Berkley in danger.  Safe.

4.Oregon-5 – Likely D to Lean D – This swing district could be a bigger problem than anticipated, even though Oregon is moving left.

5.Illinois-8 – Likely D to Solid D – With the implosion of Joe Walsh’s campaign, Melissa Bean’s road just got a lot easier.  Safe.

6.Wisconsin-7 – Likely D to Toss Up – This one caught me off guard as I didn’t think we’d have any more retirements this late in the cycle.  Wrong.  This is a slightly democratic district, but with the environment it’s going to be a battle, especially since Sean Duffy has gotten out to a strong start on the R side.  The good news is that the Dems seem to be coalescing around a strong candidate, state senator Julie Lassa.

7.Mississippi-4 – Likely D to Lean D – Sound the alarm bells, from Biloxi to Hattiesburg.  If Gene Taylor doesn’t get his butt moving fundraising and on the campaign trail soon, he won’t be around much longer.  It’s not a good year for long running incumbents, and it’s an even worse year for democrats in the rural south.  That’s two strikes.  Not running a full-out campaign and not fundraising would be strike three.  And comparing the oil spilling in the Gulf to “chocolate milk”?!  Really?!

8.Texas-23 – Likely D to Lean D – The Republicans did the smart thing here, and actually elected a Hispanic to go up against Ciro Rodriguez in this marginally republican district (but one that did go for Obama).  It remains to be seen how well Quico Canseco can campaign in the general, but this one definitely bears watching now.

9.Texas-27 – Likely D to Solid D – The GOP missed an opportunity here, not really finding anybody of substance to take on Ortiz in what could have been a toss-up district according to the PVI.  Safe.

10.Ohio-13 – Likely D to Lean D – As OH-13 is my home district, so it is with a heavy heart that I downgrade it to Lean D.  See, this race is weird, because Betty Sutton is well liked, and the district is strongly democratic.  But, challenger Tom Ganley is sitting on the biggest warchest of any republican, incumbent or challenger, this cycle.  He actually is beating Sutton 6-to-1 in cash on hand.  If Sutton doesn’t start fundraising better, Ganley could attempt to EMeg his way to a victory.

11.Georgia-2 – Likely D to Lean D – I’m starting to get really concerned here too.  My concern here is that because of Bishop’s conservatism, that base democrats in this district may not turn out in big numbers to support him.  The upcoming primary here should tell us a lot.  Besides that, this district is barely democratic, and Bishop isn’t sitting on much cash.  Can’t believe Charlie Cook still has this one at Solid D, one of the few races in which I lean further right than he does.

12.North Carolina-8 – Likely D to Lean D – Larry Kissell did not have a good quarter fundraising, and he had a very lackluster primary win.  Those are troubling signs, but luckily his competition isn’t the greatest.  Still, without the cash, Kissell may struggle.

13.Ohio-18 – Lean D to Likely D – I’ve never really gotten the feeling that Zack Space is vulnerable, and I think going against HCR the 2nd go round was smart on his part as the district is conservative in nature.  Even better, the Republican primary is going to a recount, which is undoubtedly going to leave the victor banged and bruised.  Plus, neither GOPer has much cash while Space is killing it in fundraising.

14.New York-4 – Likely D to Safe D – I don’t even remember why I was tracking this race.  Safe.

15.Wisconsin-3 – Safe D to Likely D – With long running incumbents not faring well in early primary returns, and with the general discontent still running high, I have to put Ron Kind’s district in play, even though I don’t think there’s a great chance of a takeover here.

16.Missouri-3 – Safe D to Likely D – Russ Carnahan has drawn a moneybags republican challenger, so it’s possible that this race could draw some attention even though MO-3 is very democratic in nature.  

17.Connecticut-5 – Lean D to Likely D – This race was pretty much all predicated on coattails and the GOP coalescing around somebody strong.  Neither has happened.  Murphy is sitting on a nice cash advantage too.

18.Hawaii-1 – Lean D to Toss Up – I’m now going on the assumption that Charles Djou will win the special election for this seat next week, meaning that he will go up against the winner of the inevitable Dem primary battle between Ed Case and Colleen Hanabusa in November.  In this environment, and with Hawaii’s usual liking of incumbents, Djou has a shot to survive, which is why I move the race to Toss Up.

19.Florida-8 – Toss Up to Lean D – With his gobs and gobs of money and with very weak-sauce competition, I just don’t think Alan Grayson is all that vulnerable.  I feel confident enough to move this race to lean despite the fact that Bill McCollum might bring some R coattails in the Orlando area.  Unless if Rubio and McCollum are winning big, Grayson will be fine.  He hasn’t made any headlines with his mouth lately either, which helps.

20.Michigan-9 – Lean D to Likely D – Gary Peters isn’t really a prominent target for the R’s now that they don’t have a strong candidate and that MI-1 has opened up.  I don’t think the NRCC will be making this a priority, which makes Peters’s strong financial situation decisive.

21.New York-23 – Toss Up to Lean D – It looks like intraparty warfare is coming to NY-23 once again, as favorite Doug Hoffman is trailing Matt Doheny in the money race and both are throwing barbs at each other already.  That’s good news for Bill Owens, who rode the Hoffman-Scozzafava war into office last time.

22.Florida-2 – Lean D to Toss Up – This is one district that I am really, really concerned about, and have been for months.  Alan Boyd, probably due to his yes on HCR vote, is showing up more than 10 points down in republican internal polls.  While those are probably outliers, this is a district in which Obama underperformed Kerry, and it’s moving away from Team Blue.  I’m anxiously waiting to see how the Governor and Senate races here turn out, because that will go a long way in deciding whether Boyd survives or not.

23.West Virginia-1 – Lean D to Likely R – With incumbent Alan Mollohan losing the democratic primary to Oliverio, I think it’s pretty much a goner, and that McKinley will take it for the republicans.  R+9 open seats in areas in which Obama cratered two years ago are just about the worst case scenario for democrats to defend.  WV-1’s dem electorate really screwed this one up.

24.California-45 – Likely R to Lean R – Mary Bono Mack, I feel is going to experience a bit of a turnout problem because of her vote for Cap-N-Trade, particularly if moderate Tom Campbell is nominated for the Senate race.  That, coupled with Steve Pougnet’s strong fundraising, has made this one the race to watch in southern California.

25.Arizona-3 – Lean R to Likely R – With the new immigration law kicking in, I feel that Republicans across the state are getting a bit of a boost, and that prompts this rating change.  Which is not Hulburd couldn’t steal this one, but he has lost the money advantage too, at least against some of the potential R candidates.

26.New Hampshire-2 – Toss Up to Lean R – What a mess.  I never would’ve expected that a D+3 seat in the northeast would be one of Team Blue’s biggest headaches this cycle, but here it is.  Polls are showing Charlie Bass running far ahead of Katrina Swett, one of the presumptive democratic candidates.  Ann McLane Kuster could win the D nomination instead, but Swett has a huge money lead, both on Kuster and Bass.  If the polls are true, the red wave will be really, really amplified in NH because seeing Swett down 15 points last month was a shock to me.

27.Michigan-11 – Likely R to Solid R – What a huge disappointment, again.  Why is it that Team Blue can never seem to get anybody to run here?  Maybe they are hedging that this is the seat that will get cut out in redistricting, but in either case, Thad McCotter looks like he’s in good shape for another term, which is hugely disappointing seeing as he was one of the top 10 most vulnerable R’s at this time last year.

28.Minnesota-3 – Likely R to Solid R – Ditto for Eric Paulsen, who looks good for another term.  Team Blue really screwed up by nominating the wrong candidate in 2008, and it looks like the DFL hasn’t recovered, as their recruitment has gone seriously awry.

29.New Jersey-7 – Likely R to Solid R – By pushing a moderate profile, and with a poor recruiting cycle for the democrats here, it looks like Leonard Lance is locked in for another term.  Shame, because there’s nothing worse than a arch-conservative masquerading as a moderate and getting away with it.

30.Florida-10 – Likely R to Solid R – This was another seat that looked oh so good 12 months ago.  But with Bill Young hanging in, and Charlie Justice barely able to outraise Roland Burris, it looks like Young isn’t going anywhere fast.

31.Kansas-2 – Likely R to Solid R – I had moved this seat previously on the hope that moderate v conservative warfare would break out and possibly take out Lynn Jenkins in the primary.  But it doesn’t appear that will happen, so I’m putting this seat back into safe territory.  I still wonder where this race would be if Laura Kelly was in it.  Maybe Lean R at worst?

32.South Carolina-2 – Lean R to Likely R – Ultimately, I don’t see a pickup here as all that likely, although Joe Wilson will have to deal with a lot of ads showing his gaffe over and over again.  Team Blue picking up R+10 seats in the south, this year?  Really?

33.Florida-12 – Lean R to Likely R – With Lori Edwards struggling on the fundraising front, I move this seat in the republican direction.  

34.Ohio-2 – Likely R to Solid R – With David Krikorian getting beat in the D primary by Surya Yalamanchili, it appears that Mean Jean is set.  She actually cleared 60% in the primary, which is amazing for her.  Really, OH-2 is probably the most racist district in my home state, aside from possibly OH-6, and people there aren’t going for a non-white Dem candidate, especially one whose name that they can’t pronounce.  Sorry, but that’s the cold hard truth.

May Pickup Changes:

Four seats changed in their final color this month.  Hawaii-1, which again is now a red district, I believe will go blue once again in November, bringing the number of democratic pickups to 6.  Three districts went from blue to red this month.  The first of those is Florida-2, where I think Alan Boyd will be defeated, mostly a result of his HCR vote.  West Virginia-1, which is now an open seat due to Mollohan going down in the primary, will flip from blue to red as well.  The third seat is New Hampshire-2, which is now a republican pickup mostly due to the recent polling data I’ve seen.

Final Statistics:

Current Congress – 256 democrats, 179 republicans

Projected New Congress – 233 democrats, 202 republicans

National Swing – Republicans +23

Democratic Pickups – HI-1, CA-3, IL-10, LA-2, PA-6, DE-1

Republican Pickups – CO-4, NV-3, ID-1, WA-3, ND-1, IA-3, KS-3, AR-2, LA-3, AL-2, MS-1, TX-17, MI-1, MI-7, IN-8, OH-1, FL-2, VA-2, VA-5, TN-4, TN-6, TN-8, WV-1, MD-1, PA-11, NH-1, NH-2, NY-24, NY-29

2010 House Big Board (as of May update)

Solid Dem – 161 seats:

AL-7, AZ-4, AZ-7, AR-4, CA-1, CA-5, CA-6, CA-7, CA-8, CA-9, CA-10, CA-11, CA-12, CA-13, CA-14, CA-15, CA-16, CA-17, CA-20, CA-23, CA-27, CA-28, CA-29, CA-30, CA-31, CA-32, CA-33, CA-34, CA-35, CA-37, CA-38, CA-39, CA-43, CA-51, CA-53, CO-1, CO-2, CT-1, CT-2, CT-3, FL-3, FL-11, FL-17, FL-19, FL-20, FL-23, GA-4, GA-5, GA-12, GA-13, HI-2, IL-1, IL-2, IL-3, IL-4, IL-5, IL-7, IL-8, IL-9, IL-12, IL-17, IN-1, IN-7, IA-1, IA-2, KS-1, KS-2, ME-2, MD-2, MD-3, MD-4, MD-5, MD-7, MD-8, MA-1, MA-2, MA-3, MA-4, MA-5, MA-6, MA-7, MA-8, MA-9, MI-5, MI-12, MI-13, MI-14, MI-15, MN-4, MN-5, MN-8, MS-2, MO-1, MO-5, NV-1, NJ-1, NJ-6, NJ-8, NJ-9, NJ-10, NJ-13, NM-3, NY-2, NY-4, NY-5, NY-6, NY-7, NY-8, NY-9, NY-10, NY-11, NY-12, NY-14, NY-15, NY-16, NY-17, NY-18, NY-21, NY-22, NY-27, NY-28, NC-1, NC-2, NC-4, NC-7, NC-12, NC-13, OH-9, OH-10, OH-11, OH-17, OK-2, OR-1, OR-3, OR-4, PA-1, PA-2, PA-13, PA-14, RI-2, SC-6, TN-5, TN-9, TX-9, TX-15, TX-16, TX-18, TX-20, TX-25, TX-27, TX-28, TX-29, TX-30, VT-1, VA-3, VA-8, WA-1, WA-2, WA-6, WA-7, WA-9, WV-3, WI-2, WI-4

Likely Dem – 30 seats:

Arizona-1 (Kirkpatrick)

California-18 (Cardoza)

California-36 (Harman)

California-47 (Sanchez)

Colorado-7 (Perlmutter)

Connecticut-4 (Himes)

Connecticut-5 (Murphy)

Delaware-1 (Open)

Indiana-2 (Donnelly)

Kentucky-3 (Yarmuth)

Louisiana-2 (Cao)

Maine-1 (Pingree)

Michigan-9 (Peters)

Minnesota-1 (Walz)

Minnesota-7 (Peterson)

Missouri-3 (Carnahan)

New Jersey-12 (Holt)

New Mexico-1 (Heinrich)

New York-20 (Murphy)

New York-25 (Maffei)

North Carolina-11 (Shuler)

Ohio-6 (Wilson)

Ohio-18 (Space)

Pennsylvania-3 (Dahlkemper)

Pennsylvania-4 (Dahlkemper)

Pennsylvania-17 (Holden)

Rhode Island-1 (Open)

Utah-2 (Matheson)

Virginia-11 (Connelly)

Wisconsin-3 (Kind)

Lean Dem – 26 seats:

Arizona-5 (Mitchell)

Arizona-8 (Giffords)

California-11 (McNerney)

Colorado-3 (Salazar)

Florida-8 (Grayson)

Georgia-2 (Bishop)

Georgia-8 (Marshall)

Illinois-11 (Halvorson)

Illinois-14 (Foster)

Kentucky-6 (Chandler)

Mississippi-4 (Taylor)

Missouri-4 (Skelton)

New Jersey-3 (Adler)

New York-13 (McMahon)

New York-23 (Owens)

North Carolina-8 (Kissell)

Ohio-13 (Sutton)

Ohio-16 (Boccieri)

Oregon-5 (Schrader)

Pennsylvania-8 (Murphy)

Pennsylvania-10 (Carney)

South Carolina-5 (Spratt)

South Dakota-1 (Herseth)

Texas-23 (Rodriguez)

Virginia-9 (Boucher)

Wisconsin-8 (Kagen)

Toss Up – 38 seats:

Alabama-2 (Bright)

Arkansas-1 (Open)

California-3 (Lungren)

Colorado-4 (Markey)

Florida-2 (Boyd)

Florida-22 (Klein)

Florida-24 (Kosmas)

Florida-25 (Open)

Hawaii-1 (Djou)

Idaho-1 (Minnick)

Illinois-10 (Open)

Indiana-9 (Hill)

Iowa-3 (Boswell)

Maryland-1 (Kratovil)

Massachusetts-10 (Open)

Michigan-1 (Open)

Michigan-7 (Schauer)

Mississippi-1 (Childers)

Nevada-3 (Titus)

New Hampshire-1 (Shea-Porter)

New Mexico-2 (Teague)

New York-1 (Bishop)

New York-19 (Hall)

New York-24 (Arcuri)

North Dakota-1 (Pomeroy)

Ohio-1 (Driehaus)

Ohio-15 (Kilroy)

Pennsylvania-6 (Gerlach)

Pennsylvania-7 (Open)

Pennsylvania-11 (Kanjorski)

Pennsylvania-12 (Critz)

Tennessee-4 (Davis)

Tennessee-8 (Open)

Texas-17 (Edwards)

Virginia-2 (Nye)

Virginia-5 (Perriello)

Washington-3 (Open)

Wisconsin-7 (Open)

Lean Rep – 11 seats:

Arkansas-2 (Open)

California-45 (Bono Mack)

Indiana-8 (Open)

Kansas-3 (Open)

Minnesota-6 (Bachmann)

Nebraska-2 (Terry)

New Hampshire-2 (Open)

New York-29 (Open)

Ohio-12 (Tiberi)

Pennsylvania-15 (Dent)

Washington-8 (Reichert)

Likely Rep – 18 seats:

Alabama-5 (Griffith)

Alaska-1 (Young)

Arizona-3 (Open)

California-19 (Open)

California-44 (Calvert)

California-48 (Campbell)

Florida-12 (Open)

Illinois-13 (Biggert)

Indiana-3 (Souder)

Kansas-4 (Open)

Louisiana-3 (Open)

Michigan-3 (Open)

Missouri-8 (Emerson)

South Carolina-2 (Wilson)

Tennessee-6 (Open)

Texas-32 (Sessions)

Virginia-1 (Wittman)

West Virginia-1 (Open)

Solid Rep – 151 seats:

AL-1, AL-3, AL-4, AL-6, AZ-2, AZ-6, AR-3, CA-2, CA-4, CA-21, CA-22, CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-40, CA-41, CA-42, CA-46, CA-49, CA-50, CA-52, CO-5, CO-6, FL-1, FL-4, FL-5, FL-6, FL-7, FL-9, FL-10, FL-13, FL-14, FL-15, FL-16, FL-18, FL-21, GA-1, GA-3, GA-7, GA-9, GA-10, GA-11, ID-2, IL-6, IL-15, IL-16, IL-18, IL-19, IN-4, IN-5, IN-6, IA-4, IA-5, KY-1, KY-2, KY-4, KY-5, LA-1, LA-4, LA-5, LA-6, LA-7, MD-6, MI-2, MI-4, MI-6, MI-8, MI-10, MI-11, MN-2, MN-3, MS-3, MO-2, MO-6, MO-7, MO-9, MT-1, NE-1, NE-3, NV-2, NJ-2, NJ-5, NJ-4, NJ-7, NJ-11, NY-3, NY-26, NC-3, NC-5, NC-6, NC-9, NC-10, OH-2, OH-3, OH-4, OH-5, OH-7, OH-8, OH-14, OK-1, OK-3, OK-4, OK-5, OR-2, PA-5, PA-9, PA-16, PA-18, PA-19, SC-1, SC-3, SC-4, TN-1, TN-2, TN-3, TN-7, TX-1, TX-2, TX-3, TX-4, TX-5, TX-6, TX-7, TX-8, TX-10, TX-11, TX-12, TX-13, TX-14, TX-19, TX-21, TX-22, TX-24, TX-26, TX-31, UT-1, UT-3, VA-4, VA-6, VA-7, VA-10, WA-4, WA-5, WV-2, WI-1, WI-5, WI-6, WY-1

Arkansas, Hawaii, Kentucky, Oregon & Pennsylvania Primary/Special Election Preview

Maybe we can’t quite call it the “Super Tuesday” of congressional primary days, but based on the gravity of some of the races that will be decided this week, it wouldn’t be far off the mark. Two Democratic incumbent Senators are embroiled in stiff primary fights, and the outcome of both party primaries in Kentucky’s Senate race will weigh heavily on the competitiveness of that seat in November. All told, there are 28 elections worth watching today (by our count), with the promise of run-offs in Arkansas on June 8 if no candidate achieves a majority of the vote in their respective races. Also on tap for the weekend is the special election to replace Dem Rep. Neil Abercrombie in Hawaii’s 1st District, which is shaping up to be a disaster of Abercrombie’s making.

Arkansas:

  • AR-Sen (D): Polling seems to indicate that the odds of Bill Halter coming out ahead of two-term incumbent Blanche Lincoln as falling somewhere between slim and none, but the presence of Paulist weirdo D.C. Morrison on the Democratic ticket may draw enough votes away from Lincoln to force a runoff in June. Outside groups have already spent millions on this race; labor has lined solidly behind Halter while Chamber of Commerce-types have funneled significant resources behind Lincoln, telling you everything you need to know about the ideological fault lines of this primary battle. If a runoff becomes a reality, expect this race to find yet another gear.

  • AR-Sen (R): Again, first place isn’t at all in question here. GOP Rep. John Boozman’s superior name recognition has given him a big edge on the other seven dwarves of the GOP field. What is at stake, though, is whether or not Boozman (like Lincoln) can avoid a resource-draining runoff, and if not, which Republican contender will advance to the next round along with him. Boozman has stayed close to the 50% mark in recent polling, with ex-state Sen. Jim Holt (the GOP’s ’04 nominee against Lincoln) and state Sen. Gilbert Baker clawing for second place.

  • AR-01 (D): With Marion Berry hitting the exits, four Dems have lined up to replace him, making a runoff a safe bet. Ex-state Sen. Tim Wooldridge, a pretty conservative dude who lost a runoff for Lt. Governor in 2006 to Bill Halter, is seen as the front-runner — a notion confirmed by the lone poll we’ve seen of this race. However, Berry’s ex-Chief of Staff, Chad Causey, leads the money race, and state Sen. Steve Bryles has raised six figures, too. State Rep. David Cook, who is probably the most liberal choice in this race (he favors the public option, according to his campaign site) is also the least well-funded, pulling in just $54,000 through the end of April.

  • AR-01 (R): Republicans made a lot of noise about stealing Berry’s seat after he announced his retirement decision, but that sense of optimism didn’t result in an upgrade in terms of candidate recruitment. Radio broadcaster Rick Crawford started his race off slowly, but has begun to pick up the pace after Berry hit the exits, and that may be enough to make this a very competitive contest in November. The only candidate to join him the Republican primary is Princella Smith, a former aide to future ex-Rep. Joe Cao. Smith has proven to be something of a dud, only raising $67K for her primary against Crawford.

  • AR-02 (D): The primary to replace retiring Rep. Rick Snyder is a pretty interesting one, with state House Speaker Robbie Wills seemingly leading the way in terms of November electability and insider connections, and state Sen. Joyce Elliott enjoying the support of the district’s liberal base. Snyder’s former Chief of Staff, David Boling, is also in the race and has raised nearly as much as Wills, so his presence can’t be overlooked, either. The Dem field is rounded out by former Clinton School of Public Service programming director Patrick Kennedy and assistant Attorney General John Adams, both of whom have not raised much money are not expected to win a significant share of the vote.

  • AR-02 (R): Rove acolyte and ex-US Attorney Tim Griffin is expected to win this primary pretty easily, seeing as how he’s been out-raising Little Rock restaurateur Scott Wallace by a 6-to-1 margin. Wallace, however, tied Griffin at 20-20 in an early April poll of the race, and enjoys the backing of Mike Huckabee.

  • AR-03 (R): Good luck sorting through this orgy of teabaggery. A whopping eight Republicans are duking it out for the right to succeed John Boozman in the House, pretty much guaranteeing that this sucker is going to a runoff in June. That early April Talk Business poll suggested that we’re looking at a three-way race between state Sen. Cecile Bledsoe, Rogers Mayor Steve Womack, and the aptly-named ex-state Sen. Gunner DeLay, but ex-DEA official Steve Lowry, businessman Kurt Maddox, and ex-state Rep. Doug Matayo could also compete.

Hawaii:

  • HI-01 (Special): There’s not a whole lot that need be said about this crazy-ass jungle election, where Republican Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou looks poised to steal this seat. He of course faces off against state Sen. President Colleen Hanabusa and ex-Rep. Ed Case, who used to represent the state’s other CD. The one final point I do want to make is that I blame this all on Neil Abercrombie. Had he not resigned unexpectedly, we’d never have wound up on this situation. I can appreciate that campaigning for the governorship of Hawaii when you are needed in D.C. can be quite a tiring task, especially for a septuagenarian. But Abercrombie knew he wanted to run long ago. He should either have stuck out his term, or not have stood for re-election in 2008. (DavidNYC)

Kentucky:

  • KY-Sen (D): The Big One. While the tradmed seems to neglect this race in favor of seemingly shinier objects like Arlen Specter’s primary in Pennsylvania or Rand Paul’s surprising strength among Kentucky Republicans, the Democratic primary is the true race to watch out of Kentucky tonight. 2004 nominee and current Lt. Governor Dan Mongiardo had enjoyed a consistent and seemingly impenetrable lead against state AG Jack Conway, the candidate with less baggage to exploit in the general election. However, recent polls have suggested that Conway is coming on strong in the home stretch of this campaign, perhaps making the race a dead heat. Research 2000 had Conway pulling within three points while SUSA only had Conway down by one. This one should be tight.

  • KY-Sen (R): This one shouldn’t be tight. You know things are bad when Trey Grayson is whining like a DUMBocrat about Fox News’ apparent preferential treatment of Rand Paul. Despite the best efforts of Mitch McConnell and Dick Cheney, it looks like the teabaggers are poised to make a major victory tonight, as Paul leads by 18 points in the latest poll of this race. A Paul win today will make this a fascinating race in the fall — one that could potentially yield some major GOP headaches.

  • KY-03 (R): Republicans are truly leaving no stone unturned in their quest to take back the House, and have a couple of warm bodies to take on two-term Dem Rep. John Yarmuth. Jeffrey Reetz, some guy who owns 25 Pizza Hut franchises, is facing off against Air Force vet Todd Lally. Both of these guys have raised six figures for their campaigns.

  • KY-06 (R): After rocking his GOP opponent by 30 points in 2008, Ben Chandler has attracted a pack of mouth-breathers this time around, two of whom are somewhat well-funded. Attorney Andy Barr has been in the race the longest, and has raised over $400K. Retired coal executive Mike Templeman is his chief competition, while four other Republicans have only managed to raise chump change for the primary and are expected to be non-factors tonight.

Oregon:

  • OR-Gov (D): The main story on May 18 in Oregon may be the 30th anniversary of the eruption of Mt. St. Helens, as there’s been little activity that would qualify as volcanic in either party’s open seat gubernatorial primary. The Democratic primary has been a low-key and civil contest between two long-time friends, former Governor John Kitzhaber (termed out after two terms in 2002, but angling for a return) and former Secretary of State Bill Bradbury. Bradbury has big endorsers in his corner (Al Gore, Howard Dean) and gotten local progressives revved up by running to Kitzhaber’s left, but polling gives a wide edge to Kitz. (Crisitunity)

  • OR-Gov (R): After bigger names like Greg Walden and Jason Atkinson passed, the question in the GOP primary was whether anybody other than Allen Alley, a former high-tech CEO who lost the 2008 Treasurer race, was going to show up at all. Eventually Chris Dudley, a former Portland Trail Blazers center from the 1990s, showed up and immediately assumed front-runner status simply by virtue of name rec and money. Most polling has given a lead to Dudley, but Alley seems to be closing in on him, thanks in part to Dudley’s (very large) empty-suit-ishness. Both are from the moderate end of the GOP; the more conservative options, ex-state Sen. John Lim and anti-tax initiative grifter Bill Sizemore, are there mostly to provide comic relief. (C)

  • OR-01 (R): Sports industry consultant Rob Cornilles seems to have piqued the NRCC’s interest, as they’ve touted him as the man to take down Democratic Rep. David Wu in this D+8 suburban district. Before he can tackle Wu, though, he has to survive the GOP primary. Stephan Brodhead attracted some attention with his large bankroll, but SurveyUSA‘s poll of the primary indicates the main rival to Cornilles is teabagging mortgage broker John Kuzmanich. (C)

  • OR-05 (R): Similarly, the NRCC has its favorite pony in the 5th: state Rep. Scott Bruun, a moderate from the wealthy suburban portion of this somewhat rural district. There was some brief hubbub that Bruun was vulnerable to a challenge from Tea Party-aligned retired businessman Fred Thompson (no, not that Fred Thompson), but SurveyUSA recently found that Bruun is on track to nail down the nomination. (C)

Pennsylvania:

  • PA-Sen (D): The big kahuna. For a long time, a lot of observers (myself included) wondered when – or even if – Rep. Joe Sestak would go on the attack against the party-switching Sen. Arlen Specter. Well, Sestak’s certainly proved all the doubters very wrong. Polls are as tight as can be, and while he may not pull it off in the end, Sestak seems to have timed things perfectly. This should be quite the barnburner. (D)

  • PA-Gov (D): A funny thing happened on the way to the primary: After a year of desultory polling showing pretty much all candidates in the teens and single digits, Allegheny County Chief Executive Dan Onorato completely pulled away from the pack. According to Pollster’s trendlines, Jack Wagner, Anthony Williams, and Joe Hoeffel are all still mired in nowheresville, so unless a lot of polling is very wrong, Onorato will be the Dem gubernatorial nominee. (D)

  • PA-03 (R): There’s a crowded field to take on freshman Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper, but only two dudes have shown serious scratch – and both because they’re self-funders: retired businessman Paul Huber, who raised $200K and loaned himself another $300K, and auto dealer and ex-city councilman Mike Kelly, who lent himself $165K on top of $80K in individual contributions. Other wannabes include Cochranton insurance agent Steven Fisher, teabagger Clayton Grabb, physician Martha Moore, and Some Dude Ed Franz, who have all raised about $30K or less. Both Huber and Kelly have been on the air with TV advertisements. A big question is whether Huber’s fundraising edge will outweigh the fact that he was a registered Democrat for 33 years – and only switched parties in 2008. (D)

  • PA-04 (R): When Bush-era US Attorney Mary Beth Buchanan (one of the names that kept cropping up in the US Attorney firings scandal) got into the race, Beltway pundits seemed to think the GOP primary would be a mere formality for her before posing a strong challenge to Democratic Rep. Jason Altmire in this R+6 district in Pittsburgh’s suburbs. They didn’t count on one thing: Buchanan’s apparent ineptitude at jumping from legal practice to electoral politics. We don’t have any polls to go by, but her anti-establishment opponent, attorney Keith Rothfus has outraised her and is certainly making fewer unforced errors. (C)

  • PA-06 (D): This race pits an SSP fave, physician and veteran Manan Trivedi, against someone we simply aren’t very fond of, newspaper publisher Doug Pike. But putting aside our personal preferences, what’s going to happen here? It’s hard to say, especially since we haven’t seen any polls. Pike, thanks to massive donations from himself totaling more than a million dollars, has a big money edge. He’s also gotten his share of labor endorsements, though Trivedi has scored some of his own, as well as the backing of some key county committees. I’m rooting for Trivedi, to be sure, but I think he has an uphill fight against Pike’s bucks. (D)

  • PA-10 (R): Here’s another district where the GOP thought a former US Attorney would be just what the doctor ordered, and they didn’t quite get what they thought. Tom Marino was their hyped pick for the race, but questions about Marino’s relationship with sketchy developer Louis DeNaples have loomed large over his campaign. Marino’s fundraising has been subpar as well; what is likely to help him pull it out in the primary is that his anti-establishment opposition is split, with Snyder Co. Commissioner Malcolm Derk his most prominent foe. (C)

  • PA-11 (D): Even though there’s a long-long-time Democratic incumbent here, Rep. Paul Kanjorski, the primary is on the Democratic side, rather than for the GOP (where 2008 opponent Lou Barletta is on tap for a rematch). Up-and-coming Lackawanna Co. Commissioner Corey O’Brien is taking on Kanjorski. While he has only a fraction of Kanjorski’s money, he’s trying to outhustle the crusty Kanjorski on the ground, and also making electability arguments about the incumbent, who barely beat Barletta in the much-more favorable 2008. Without any polling, it’s hard to guess whether we’re looking at a WV-01-style unplanned retirement for Kanjorski. (C)

  • PA-12 (Special): This, by rights, should be the main event tonight, as it’s the only Democrat vs. Republican matchup anywhere. It has all the makings of a dead heat, not only in terms of polling (most recently a 1-point lead for Republican Tim Burns over Democrat Mark Critz, according to PPP), but also the lay of the land. It’s an historically Democratic district with a huge registration advantage, but it’s trending in the Republican direction as district’s aged population gets its marching orders from Fox News instead of the union hall now. Much has been made of how this R+1 district was the nation’s only one to go from backing Kerry in 2004 to McCain in 2008. Critz’s close ties to John Murtha, and the fact that the special coincides with the hotly contested Democratic Senate primary, may help Dems win the day, though. (C)

  • PA-12 (D/R): The regularly scheduled primary elections in the 12th for November are also on the same day as the special. While it’s likely that, whatever the special election outcome, Mark Critz and Tim Burns will be facing each other again in the general, that’s not guaranteed. Critz is likely to beat Ryan Bucchanieri on the Dem side, but Burns is facing a tough challenge from Bill Russell and leading only narrowly according to a recent Susquehanna poll. Russell, who was passed over by the state party for the nomination, was the 2008 candidate; he’s best known as frontman for direct-mail scammers BaseConnect, and as such, has had enough money for TV ads. Could we see a Neil Abercrombie-type result where Burns wins a special and loses a primary on the same day? (C)

  • PA-17 (D/R): Most observers expect November to be a matchup of long-time incumbent Democratic Rep. Tim Holden, and top-tier-ish GOP recruit state Sen. David Argall. Both, however, have primaries to get through first. Holden faces Democratic activist Sheila Dow-Ford, who’s attacking him over his anti-HCR vote. Meanwhile, Argall (vulnerable over the issue of legislative pay raises) is barely keeping his head above water against fractured opposition, led by veteran Frank Ryan, who’s had some surprising fundraising success. (C)

  • PA-19 (R): This has the potential to be a surprise: Rep. Todd Platts is an unusually moderate Republican given the R+12 lean of this rural district, and he’s also painted a target on his own back by publicly expressing interest on getting out of that job and moving over to head the Government Accountability Office instead. Opponent Mike Smeltzer is hoping to use that as a basis for giving Platts a good teabagging. (C)

    IN-03: Mark Souder (R) Resigning Due to Affair with Staffer

    This was… unexpected:

    Rep. Mark Souder (R-Ind.), a former congressional staffer who was elected to the House in the Republican revolution of 1994, has told colleagues he will resign Tuesday because of an affair with a female aide, a House GOP official told POLITICO.

    Souder has scheduled an announcement about his future for 10 a.m. today at his congressional office in Ft. Wayne.

    Souder is married and has three children.

    He informed Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) of his decision on Sunday, according to GOP sources.

    Souder, as you’ll recall, squeaked out of his primary earlier this month with just 48% of the vote. Last cycle, he handily dispatched Dem Mike Montagano in a race many (SSP included) expected to be a lot closer. We’ll bring you details on any word of a special as soon as we have them.

    UPDATE: The law:

        Sec. 1. A special election shall be held in the following cases:

           (3) Whenever a vacancy occurs in the office of United States Representative unless the vacancy occurs less than thirty (30) days before a general election.

    Also, when Julia Carson’s death created a vacancy in IN-07 back in 2008, news accounts at the time said that the special election had to have been held within 60 days of the vacancy. Presumably that is the timetable we’ll be following here, but we will do some more research on this question. (James)

    MORE UPDATE: Hoo boy, this is rich. Souder and his mistress actuallly made an anti-sex tape together: they appeared together in a video in favor of abstinence-only education.

    A couple other interesting observations from the comments: prior to Andre Carson’s election, the last special election in Indiana was back in 1989 in this very district (numbered the 4th back then), where Democrat Jill Long won an upset to fill the vacancy left by Dan Coats (who got promoted to the Senate to fill the vacuum left by Dan Quayle). Long went on to get swept out by Souder in 1994, and as Jill Long Thompson mounted a very poor comeback in the 2008 gubernatorial race. (H/t IndianaProgressive.) Also, it turns out that state Sen. Marlin Stutzman, last seen acquitting himself well in the Senate primary against Coats, is from this district (he’s from tiny Howe, in LaGrange County). I wonder if he’d be interested in parlaying his newfound celebrity with the DeMint wing into another run for a promotion? (H/t izengabe.)

    Finally, here’s some legal background from Indiana’s Secretary of State:

    2) When will the special election be held?

    Under Indiana Code 3-13-3-2, the circuit court clerk of the county where the U.S. Representative resided (in this case, Marion County) must certify that the vacancy has occurred, and file the certification with the Governor.

    The Governor will then issue a writ of election that must specify the date of the special election (IC 3-10-8-3). There is no deadline specified by law for either the clerk’s certification to be filed or for the Governor’s writ to be issued.

    However, the combination of deadlines set by state law for nominating candidates and absentee ballot voting makes it mathematically impossible for a special election to occur earlier than 60 days after a vacancy occurs in the office of U.S. Representative (See, for example, IC 3-13-1-7; 3-13-1-9; 3-13-1-20; 3-8-6-13; 3-8-7-15).

    Just to clarify, this means that the “within 60 days” timeline that the Politico identified back in 2008 is incorrect.

    SSP Daily Digest: 5/18 (Morning Edition)

  • NV-Sen: Looks like the chicken may have gotten hit by a bus while crossing the road: Sue Lowden is getting ripped for apparently accepting what might be an illegal campaign donation of a luxury RV. Though she says her campaign is leasing it from a supporter, her name appears on the title to the bus. The vehicle costs more than $100,000, so that would sorta exceed the $2,400 FEC limit.
  • PA-Sen: After campaigning for Creigh Deeds, Jon Corzine, and Martha Coakley, I can understand why Barack Obama suddenly thinks Arlen Specter’s developed a case of the cooties. But even if the president hopes to avoid swirling in some stink lines now, he’s not going to be able to be that choosy in the fall. P.S. How come he never made an appearance in Hawaii? He could have done a joint event for Case & Hanabusa, and the locals would have gone nuts for it.

    Meanwhile, this seems remarkably douchey: Joe Sestak said he’s “looking forward” to Arlen Specter’s support after Tuesday, but wouldn’t say whether he’d do the same! I’m not sure how you can be so nakedly hypocritical with a straight face and expect to get away with it.

  • CA-Gov: Social issues just haven’t seemed to dominate Republican primaries this year, but Steve Poizner seems to be throwing everything he can at Meg Whitman these days. He has a new ad (no word on the size of the buy, natch) attacking Whitman for creating a special porn-only section on eBay. I feel bad for that poor teenager on the laptop feature in the spot. Also, I find it odd that he mentions Whitman “cleaned up” gun sales on eBay in something of a positive light. Shouldn’t that be a bad thing, too?
  • KS-04: Richard Pompeo, the GOP’s Chosen One to succeed Rep. Todd Tiahrt, is coming under fire for a D.C. fundraiser held by convicted (and later pardoned) Iran-Contra felon Bud McFarlane. John McCain was in attendance, but so were a ton of lobbyists – something Pompeo originally tried to deny. Not a good year to be sucking up to D.C. vampire squids, but Pompeo is well ahead in the money race in his primary.
  • MA-10: State Rep. Jeff Perry’s record as a police sergeant is coming under scrutiny, for two abusive strip searches of teenage girls conducted by an officer under his command in the early 1990s. The officer, Scott Flanagan, was later convicted of assault, and Perry and the town were sued, with both cases settling. Perry resigned his job six months after the allegations were made public in 1993, but he claims the two were not related.
  • MI-07: A little dust-up in the GOP primary: A surrogate for ex-Rep. Tim Walberg blasted Brian Rooney for failing to show up at an anti-abortion dinner (sounds lovely, right?) so that he could instead attend a fundraiser at the home of a past president of the “liberal” Republican Main Street Partnership. Rooney says he’s super-duper anti-abortion, yadda yadda, this is divisive, etc. Keep it up, Walberg!
  • NY-01: Stuck behind Newsday’s paywall is a tantalizing story that suggests GOPer Randy Altschuler is getting blasted by his primary opponents for – get this – his one-time membership in the Green Party. Not exactly a sterling credential for someone hoping to land the Republican nomination.
  • VA-05: Earlier this month, the GOP 5th CD convention held a straw poll, and teabagger Feda Kidd Morton won with 30%. State Sen. Rob Hurt, who Republican activists really seem to love to hate, was second with 25%. Despite also getting the endorsement of the Family Research Council, Morton has no money, and the field is pretty fractured.
  • NY-Comptroller: Eliot Spitzer says he won’t make a comeback attempt – at least this year – for comptroller or any other office. Since petition time is almost upon us (and petitioning is very difficult in NY), he can’t really change his mind at this point.