Month: May 2010

After publicly mulling the idea of running as a write-in, giving hope for cat fud fans everywhere, unfortunately, Bob Bennett has decided to go quietly into the night after all.

“If I were to do it, it would revive all of those passions and divide the party in the state of Utah,” Bennett said, calling the campaign “the nastiest race for a party nomination in the history of Utah.”

The fact that his announcement was at NRSC headquarters was a pretty clear tip-off ahead of time that he wasn’t going to break away from the party. Bennett didn’t endorse anyone, but has a meeting scheduled today with Tim Bridgewater (who faces a primary against Mike Lee, both of whom finished ahead of Bennett at the GOP convention).

AR-Sen: Democracy For America is out with a new poll that they commissioned from Research 2000 on the Democratic primary runoff, and it finds Halter ahead of Lincoln by 48-46. A couple of caveats, though: the runoff top lines are buried under a series of issues-related questions, which could suggest that the runoff was tested later in the question order; also, keep in mind that this was a snap overnight poll with no callbacks instead of their usual method. We’ll probably be seeing plenty of polling out of Arkansas over the next three weeks, so I wouldn’t get too excited about a quickie poll like this one.

Meanwhile, Lincoln still has a pretty powerful weapon in her arsenal — the unqualified support of Bill Clinton. Clinton will campaign with Lincoln in Little Rock on May 28.

CT-Sen: Markos does a very thorough job rounding up the independent push-back against the New York Times’ over-the-top hit pieces against Democrat Richard Blumenthal.

FL-Sen: Here’s an amusing slice of parochialism. NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg, a famous independent, is refusing to endorse Charlie Crist’s Senate candidacy because Crist vetoed a controversial teacher “merit pay” bill passed by the Florida state legislature.

KY-Sen: After initially vowing to seek a recanvass of the statewide vote, Democrat Dan Mongiardo has instead elected to concede the race to AG Jack Conway.

Meanwhile, Rand Paul says that he now plans to be “best friends” with Mitch McConnell — a dude whom he shared tense relations with during the primary season. The bigger story for Paul right now, though, seems to be the national attention that some of his uncompromising views are receiving. Think Progress takes a look at Paul’s reservations with the 1964 Civil Rights Act, specifically the idea that private businesses can’t be as racist as they want to be. (The original source of that nugget, a Louisville Courier-Journal editorial interview, offers a pretty damning assessment of Paul: “The trouble with Dr. Paul is that despite his independent thinking, much of what he stands for is repulsive to people in the mainstream.”)

PA-Gov: How’s this for some thin-skinned bullshit? Republican Attorney General (and gubernatorial nominee) Tom Corbett is subpoenaing Twitter to provide “any and all subscriber information” on two user accounts who have been anonymously criticizing Corbett in missives under 140 characters long. Corbett is apparently going after these two users for their “violations of the laws of Pennsylvania” — whatever that means. It sure doesn’t look like an abuse of office for a politician to use the justice system to silence his critics, does it?

ID-01: Moose Lady to the rescue! Sarah Palin is returning to Idaho on Friday to help pump up the flagging candidacy of Vaughn Ward, whose bid for Congress hit a few snags recently, including allegations that he’s actually a closeted Democrat.

IN-03: Were you wondering how disgraced GOP Rep. Mark Souder got dimed out of office? Souder’s colleague in the Indiana delegation, fellow Republican Mike Pence, effectively claimed his scalp yesterday, saying that he directed the House Ethics Committee to the attention of Souder’s philandering ways. That’s some stone cold shit right there!

NY-14: Lake Research for Carolyn Maloney (5/10-12, likely voters):

Carolyn Maloney (D-inc): 75

Reshma Saujani (D): 7

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±4.9%)

PA-06: We missed this in yesterday’s round-up, but Doug Pike has conceded the Democratic nod to take on Rep. Jim Gerlach to Manan Trivedi. Pike also issued an unqualified endorsement of Trivedi for the general election.

SC-05: Veteran Dem Rep. John Spratt is hitting back hard against recent NRCC attacks that have attempted to label Spratt as an “amnesiac” with a faulty memory. Spratt, who recently disclosed that he has been diagnosed with early-stage Parkinson’s disease, is calling the NRCC’s missives an attempt to sow doubt about his health, which he calls “beneath contempt”. Even Spratt’s Republican foe in the race, state Sen. Mick Mulvaney, attempted to put some daylight between himself and the NRCC.

VA-05: Feda Kidd Morton, a favorite of the teabagger scene, is in a bit of hot water for an opinion piece she wrote for a local newspaper back in February that turned out to be heavily cribbed from an article written by syndicated conservative columnist Joseph Sobran. In response, Morton says she did no wrong because, “restating principles of the Constitution is no different than restating the Ten Commandments.” Yuh huh. And if you are a Scottish Lord, then I am Mickey Mouse.

Now that the dust has settled and I’ve had time to reflect, I wanted to post a quick analysis of what happened in Arkansas last night, from a progressive Arkie’s perspective.  Keep in mind, this is only meant to be an analysis of last night, and of nothing that’s to come.  I don’t think it’s a perfect analysis, but it is my take.

First, let’s start with the biggie, the AR-Sen race.

Dem primary-Obviously, it was a big night for Halter supporters like myself.  Bill cleaned up in places I never imagined-dominating southwest Arkansas and picking up counties in Lincoln’s home turf-Cross, St. Francis, Greene, Poinsett, etc.  What was odd was the fact that Lincoln won a few places where Halter was thought to be running strong in, namely Pulaski County, where Halter is from.  There’s an interesting explanation for this, and I wouldn’t have thought of it myself if one of my associates on Blue Arkansas hadn’t pointed it out.  Halter is running an anti-establishment campaign.  You don’t get more establishment in Arkansas Democratic politics than Pulaski County.  There has been a charge put out there that Halter drew in “GOP good ol’ boys”.  It’s true that Halter did do better in rural, more conservative areas (which should put the electability suggestion Lincoln is trying to peddle to rest).  However, I don’t think these count as Republican voters per se.  They are socially conservative, but they don’t necessarily think government doesn’t work.  They just think it’s not working for them.  Halter’s populist message, I think, is resonating.

GOPer primary-With all the excitement on the Dem side, John Boozman was able to quietly walk to victory.  Gilbert Baker’s campaign flamed out as he got more desperate for attention, becoming incredibly ridiculous.  (Go to youtube and type in “sexy Arkansas cheerleader politician”.)  The real drama, if there was any, was waiting to see if Jim Holt pulled into a runoff.  If that had happened, Boozman could have been the next Trey Grayson.  Sadly, it wasn’t to be.

AR-01:

Dems-former state senator Tim Wooldridge and Berry CoS Chad Causey have advanced to the runoff.  We at Blue Arkansas were backing State Representative David Cook, a more progressive, populist style candidate, but he ended up placing third, the cash advantage being the problem.  Wooldridge made it to this runoff by virtue of his name recognition from his Lt. Gov race against Halter.  Causey by his connections to Berry.

GOP-Rick Crawford easily beat my old high school classmate Princella Smith.  How many Republicans in Arkansas do you think really were enthusiastic about voting for a black woman?

AR-02:

Dems-State senator Joyce Elliott (a progressive hero in the state) surged to an incredibly high total in the initial primary that no one had expected.  State house speaker Robbie Wills won everywhere outside Pulaski County, but not by impressive margins.  High African American and progressive turnout was responsible for the Elliott surge.

GOP-Tim Griffin easily raised/spent far more money than his opponent, who did have some significan endorsements from folks like Mike Huckabee, the cash advantage carrying him over.

AR-03:

GOP primary-Weird dynamics in this one.  Steve Womack (Rogers mayor) has been labeled as a RINO in the primary.  Keep in mind, this is a man who’s so nutty on immigration George Bush said he was an extremist.  Cecile Bledsoe managed to inch past Gunner Delay to challenge Womack in the runoff.

Statewide offices:

Two statewide office races were particularly noteworthy, the Secretary of State race and the Land Commissioner’s race.  In both races, young, more progressive minded candidate running on ideas (Pulaski county clerk Pat O’Brien and businessman L.J. Bryant respectively) both surged to face establishment candidates in the Dem runoff (current Land Comm. Mark Wilcox in the SoS race and state rep. Monty Davenport in the Land Commissioner’s race).  This is a big deal, as these offices are usually where Arkansas sends old politicians to retire, as in the case of our former Land Commissioner, current Sec. of State, and future Auditor Charlie Daniels.  The fact that more issues oriented progressive policy wonks did so well last night is a huge deal for the state.

State legislature-Nothing dramatic on the state legislative front, except for maybe two things.  The large black turnout in Pulaski county lead to the defeat of state representative Richard Carroll, the former Green turned Democrat, at the hands of state senator Tracy Steele.  The saddest blow was this-Jay Barth, a great progressive running to be the first openly gay man elected to the state senate, was defeated after his opponent Linda Poindexter Chesterfield, ran an ad raising his sexual orientation and accusing him of racism for questioning her missed votes as a state rep.  (Chesterfield is black and said that doing so amounted to playing to the stereotype of blacks as lazy.)  For me, that was the lowest moment of the night.  However, there was one good moment as Fayetteville sent a true progressive to the legislature, Greg Leding.

What on earth is going on here?

I just confirmed with a source who was at tonight’s executive committee meeting of the Staten Island GOP that both Michael Allegretti and Michael Grimm were turned down for the nomination for ex-Rep. Vito Fossella’s old seat (now held by Democratic Rep. Michael McMahon) in favor of… Vito Fossella.

The ex-rep was not present at the meeting, but his name was put up by Chairman John Friscia, the source told me. …

Both Allegretti and Grimm went through the interview process before Fossella was nominated in absentia, the source said: “There was no explanation. Everybody walked out with their mouths, like, hung open. [Fossella] didn’t ask for our endorsement or our support. John Friscia did.”

Fossella has, in the past, said that he has no plans to run again this cycle, but at the same time, we haven’t heard anything definitive out of him… and we have heard persistent whispers that he’s trying to find some way to plan a comeback. If there was any doubt, it now looks like Fossella is trying to muscle Allegretti and Grimm out of the field. I don’t know what’s more surprising: the fact that Fossella is apparently pulling the trigger on a comeback so soon, or the fact that the Staten Island GOP is so eager to lend him an assist.

For his part, ex-Rep. and ex-Staten Island Borough President Guy Molinari is fuming mad:

“I’m deeply troubled. I think the status of the Republican Party on Staten Island has reached a new low tonight. Fossella has been playing his usual game at the expense of two other candidates, Michael Grimm and Michael Allegretti,” Molinari said.

“I have a difficult time that Fossella would put his own personal ambitions above his family. His family has been through enough and I couldn’t believe that he would be willing to put them through all of that once again. If Fossella were to win, the investigation that was dropped when he (chose not to run for reelection) would be reopened. I am told that there are other matters that would be brought to the surface if he were to win again.”

Asked if he believed Fossella had any knowledge of the Executive Committee’s plans, Molinari said bluntly: “There’s no way this would have been done tonight without his knowing it.”

Added Molinari: We have a fine candidate in Michael Grimm. I welcome a primary with Fossella…It’s going to be ugly, it’s going to be nasty, but he has to know that would come out in the course of a campaign…Everything he has done will be brought to light by me in this campaign.”

Wow. Let the games begin.

(Hat-tip: GOPVoter)

Public Policy Polling (5/14-16, Colorado voters, 3/5-8 in parens):

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 44 (43)

Jane Norton (R): 41 (43)

Undecided: 14 (14)

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 44 (45)

Tom Wiens (R): 36 (37)

Undecided: 20 (18)

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 45 (46)

Ken Buck (R): 39 (36)

Undecided: 16 (14)

Andrew Romanoff (D): 43 (44)

Jane Norton (R): 41 (39)

Undecided: 16 (17)

Andrew Romanoff (D): 41 (44)

Tom Wiens (R): 37 (36)

Undecided: 22 (20)

Andrew Romanoff (D): 41 (45)

Ken Buck (R): 38 (34)

Undecided: 22 (21)

(MoE: ±3.0%)

No huge changes in the top lines here, though it is certainly nice to see Bennet with his head back above water for change against NRSC favorite Jane Norton, thanks in large part to Bennet’s improvement among independent voters. But speaking of Norton, it’s looking like she’s in for a rough ride against teabagger favorite Ken Buck, the District Attorney of Weld County. Check out these primary trend lines:

Jane Norton (R): 31 (34)

Ken Buck (R): 26 (17)

Tom Wiens (R): 5 (7)

Others: 10 (9)

Undecided: 29 (32)

(MoE: ±4.6%)

If you haven’t seen it already, check out this Denver Post profile on Norton’s rather vacuous campaign, in which she has a hard time defending the very existence of her candidacy to reporters. It’s stuff like that that really deflates the notion that Norton is in any way formidable. And, for what it’s worth, PPP’s Tom Jensen is willing to put his dollar on Buck winning the primary right now.

In the Democratic primary, Bennet’s lead is looking a bit more comfortable:

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 46 (40)

Andrew Romanoff (D): 31 (34)

Undecided: 23 (26)

(MoE: ±4.7%)

I’m sure Romanoff supporters may point to the late surges of candidates like Jack Conway, Joe Sestak, and Bill Halter as evidence that Romanoff can still win this. Maybe so! But remember that all of those examples were backed by serious financial muscle, whereas Romanoff is at a severe disadvantage in that department.

• CA-Sen: Good news for Tom Campbell, in the form of the Senate half of M4’s poll of the California GOP primary: he leads Carly Fiorina and Chuck DeVore, 33-28-15. (Of course, with his plans to briefly go dark to conserve funds, that gives Fiorina a chance to play catchup when the margin’s not that big.) Bad news for Campbell, though: the NRA has him in its metaphorical crosshairs, sending out a mailer to members attacking Campbell and, while not endorsing, offering kind words for Fiorina and DeVore.

• CT-Sen: This is going to make it a lot easier for Richard Blumenthal to make the case that the “in Vietnam” controversy is something of a cheap shot. A longer-form video release of the appearance (provided, ironically, by the Linda McMahon campaign, undercutting their own hatchet job) where the offending phrase occurred have him correctly referring to having “served in the military, during the Vietnam era” in the very same speech. That’s not stopping Vietnam vet Rob Simmons, who, sensing an opening, has rolled out web advertising with “Blumenthal Lied About Vietnam” in very large letters.

Blumenthal is getting more explicit backing from Democratic bigwigs now, as his mea culpa/attempt to get back on the offense seems to have had the desired effect. Rep. Chris Murphy, the likeliest guy to pick up the pieces if Blumenthal had to bail out, offered his unqualified support; so too did Howard Dean. And here’s one thing that’s actually good about Rasmussen‘s one-day, no-callback samples: they can strike fast. They polled Connecticut, and while the trendlines aren’t appealing, they find Blumenthal still beating McMahon even in the heat of the moment before the story has had time to digest, and beating the other, unmoneyed GOP opponents by pretty wide margins. Markos has some really nice pushback against Rasmussen in general, today, asking why they always poll quickly when there’s the potential for a good Republican narrative but not when the narrative doesn’t fit (as seen in their failure to poll the Sorta Super-Tuesday primaries).

• FL-Sen: Charlie Crist has been trying to woo union support, starting with a speech at the state AFL-CIO convention this weekend. It’s another indication that he’s trying to move squarely onto Kendrick Meek’s turf and monopolize as much of the left-of-center vote as he can, now that he’s free from his GOP shackles. Meanwhile, quixotic Democratic candidate Jeff Greene has apparently been seen wooing Ukrainian strippers, in 2005 on his 145-foot yacht while cruising the Black Sea. Not so, claims his campaign spokesperson; he was busy traveling with his rabbi at the time instead.

• KY-Sen: In case you needed one more data point on how thin-skinned Rand Paul and how likely a meltdown from him is at some point before November, here’s an anecdote from last night: he refused to take the customary concession call from Trey Grayson, at least according to the Grayson camp.

• NC-Sen: Here’s a big score for Elaine Marshall: Third-place finisher Kenneth Lewis gave his backing to Marshall in her runoff against Cal Cunningham. This move isn’t so surprising, given that Lewis’s supporters, like Rep. Eva Clayton, were already gravitating toward Marshall, but it ought to steer much of Lewis’s African-American and youth base in her direction as well.

• NV-Sen: Three items, all of which are very, very bad for Sue Lowden. First, the Club for Growth finally weighed into the Senate primary, and they backed right-winger Sharron Angle (maybe not that surprising, since they backed her in the 2006 primary for NV-02). That ought to give Angle a further shot of adrenaline, though, on top of her Tea Party Express endorsement and polling momentum. Lowden is also still bogged down in controversy over her luxury bus, doubling-down on her claims that use of the $100K vehicle was leased despite also having stated elsewhere that the bus was “donated” (which means it would have needed to be reported as an in-kind contribution). That’s nothing, though, compared to the (by my count) quintupling-down on Chickens-for-Checkups, simultaneously trying to fight top Nevada journo Jon Ralston on the fact that, yes, people are bartering for health care while trying to claim that she never actually said anything about Chickencare at all.

• NY-Sen-B: The only GOP big name left who hadn’t said anything definitive about participating in the GOP Senate primary for the right to get creamed by Kirsten Gillibrand finally said a public “no.” Orange County Executive Ed Diana said he’ll stick with his current job, to which he was elected in November to a third term.

• UT-Sen: Looks like that teabaggers’ victory in Utah might be short-lived. Bob Bennett seems to be more interested than before in running as a write-in in the general (where, despite the complex dynamics of a write-in campaign, he faces better odds with the broader electorate than with the narrow slice of extremists running the GOP convention). We may know tomorrow what his plans are, as he emphasized “Stay tuned tomorrow.”

• WA-Sen: If Dino Rossi really is still interested in running for Senate, this isn’t a particularly good way of showing it. Rossi is scheduled to make a blockbuster appearance on May 25… to give opening remarks at a dinnertime seminar for local real estate investors focusing on strategies for profiting off foreclosures. Because nothing says “I’m a man of the people” than knowing all the ins and outs of how to profit off the people’s misery.

• AL-Gov: Artur Davis is out with an internal poll, that seems mostly oriented toward countering the sense that he’s losing ground among his African-American base. The poll shows Davis leading Democratic primary rival Ron Sparks 46-33. It also shows Davis leading 50-25 among African-Americans (despite the defections of some prominent local black groups), while trailing Sparks 42-41 among whites.

• FL-Gov: Bill McCollum is going to have to start taking moneybags Rick Scott seriously, and he’s striking hard, sending out a press release calling him an “embarrassment” and a “fraud,” presumably in reference to allegations leveled against Scott’s health care firm. Scott’s ginormous introductory ad buy is now estimating at $6.3 million.

• KS-Gov: Sam Brownback is drawing some heat for taking things out of context. Now, politicians take things out of context all the time, but his sleight-of-hand in attempting to fight efforts to more tightly regulate the business of car loans to military members may be a fridge too far.

“CNN Money on May 13 reported that ‘Raj Date … agreed that the additional (Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection) regulation might cause some dealers to stop arranging loans,” Brownback said in the letter.

But Brownback’s letter did not include the rest of Date’s comment, which was this, “There will be some dealers who say, ‘If I have to play by an honest set [of] rules, then I can’t be in this business anymore.’ I’m not going to shed any tears for these dealers.”

• MA-Gov: You may recall last week’s Rasmussen MA-Gov poll where, in an effort to find some sort of good news, they found that, if liberal activist Grace Ross somehow beat incumbent Dem Deval Patrick in the primary, she would lost to GOPer Charlie Baker. Well, it’s looking like Ross is in danger of not even making it onto the ballot. The state SoS says she has only a little more than half of the 10,000 signatures she needs; Ross promises an announcement tomorrow morning on her next step. (The upside for Patrick, if Ross qualifies for the primary though, would be $750K in public financing for his campaign, which he wouldn’t be entitled to if he were running unopposed.)

• ME-Gov: There’s been some ongoing controversy in the sleepy Maine governor’s race about how Republican candidate Steve Abbott (former CoS to Susan Collins) wound up with GOP voter lists, but this is a strange turn: the state Republican party chair, Charlie Webster, is now saying that Abbott’s camp flat-out “stole” it.

• GA-09: The special election to replace Nathan Deal (where GOPers Tom Graves and Lee Hawkins are in a runoff) seems to have winnowed the Republican field for the regularly-scheduled GOP primary, too. Former state Senate majority leader Bill Stephens has dropped out of contention in that field.

• HI-01: Even if something incredibly dramatic happens between now and Saturday’s drop-dead date in the special election in the 1st, things are still pretty much cast in stone. In the all-mail in election, now 43% of all ballots sent out have been returned.

• IN-03: State Sen. Marlin Stutzman (whose name rec is sky-high right now after running fairly well in the GOP Senate primary against Dan Coats) says that he’s going to strike while the iron is hot, and get into the race to replace resigning Rep. Mark Souder. Other GOPers confirming that they’ll run include state Rep. Randy Borror, Ft. Wayne city councilor Liz Brown, and recent primary loser Phil Troyer. Another recent primary loser, Bob Thomas, is a potential candidate.

• OH-16: After having found an excuse to hide behind the door the last time Barack Obama came to Ohio, Rep. John Boccieri was proudly with him when he visited Youngstown yesterday. Perhaps he can sense a bit of a turning of the tide? Troublingly, though, Senate candidate Lee Fisher wasn’t present.

• PA-12: PPP digs through the data from their last pre-election poll in the 12th and finds what may really have done the Republicans in. There’s one entity in the district even more unpopular than Barack Obama (who had 30% approval), and that’s Congressional Republicans, who were at a miserable 22/60. In nationalizing the election, Tim Burns tied himself to the nation’s least favorite people of all.

• PA-19: After having surviving his primary last night despite publicly seeking another job, it looks like Rep. Todd Platts exposed himself to all that danger for no reason at all. Platts announced yesterday that the Obama administration had let him know that he wasn’t going to be selected for the Government Accountability Office job he’d been angling for.

• CT-AG: Here’s one of the weirdest career crash-and-burns I’ve seen lately: SoS Susan Bysiewicz went in a few months from likely next Governor to somehow not even eligible to run for the lower-tier job she dropped down to. Connecticut’s Supreme Court unanimously ruled that she didn’t meet the criteria for legal experience required to become AG, reversing a lower court’s decision. Former Democratic state Sen. George Jepsen now has the AG job pretty much to himself. At any rate, with Bysiewicz now combing the “Help Wanted” section, that gives the Connecticut Dems a fallback plan for the Senate if Richard Blumenthal does need to bail out (although Bysiewicz may be seriously damaged at this point too).

• OR-St. House: Here are a couple races with interesting implications that I forgot to watch last night: two Republican state Reps. from the high-desert parts of Oregon (the state’s Republican stronghold) committed the unthinkable heresy of not only bipartisanship but supporting tax increases to close the state’s budget gap. Both Bob Jenson and Greg Smith survived their primaries, though, after teabaggers, right-to-lifers, and even their state House minority leader turned their wrath against them.

• Arizona: One other election result from last night that most people, us included, seemed to overlook was Proposition 100 in Arizona. In a surprise, at least to those people who think that it’s a rabidly anti-tax year (which would be those people who didn’t pay any attention to Measures 66 and 67 earlier this year in Oregon), the people of this red state voted by a fairly wide margin for a temporary sales tax increase as part of a package of changes to close the budget gap. It’s a victory for Jan Brewer, actually, who backed the plan (perhaps feeling safer to do so, having solidified her position with her support for the “papers please” law).

• 1994: When you have a wave, a lot of dead wood washes up on the beach. Prompted by ’94 alum Mark Souder’s mini-scandal and resignation, Dana Milbank looks back at the wide array of scoundrels and rogues who were swept in in 1994.

• History: History’s only barely on the side of Blanche Lincoln when it comes to runoffs. It turns out that the person who finishes first in a runoff wins 72% of the time, but when that’s limited only to runoffs in primaries, the success rate is only 55%… and Lincoln’s victory over Bill Halter last night was a particularly close one.

Last night was a lot of fun, but with over two dozen races worth watching, it’s easy to lose track of some of those important but lesser-heralded contests while getting mesmerized by some of the more marquee races that went down last night. Let’s do a brief re-cap of everything:

Arkansas:

• AR-Sen: The big story out of Arkansas is Bill Halter’s strong finish in the Democratic Senate primary against Blanche Lincoln. Lincoln ultimately ended the night with a 45-43 result, which was good enough to send this race to a runoff on June 8. Everyone is aflutter that Paulist weirdo D.C. Morrison managed to scoop up 13% of the vote, a higher mark than the polls expected. While it might be tempting to speculate that Morrison’s votes will flock to the more right-wing choice in the runoff (Lincoln), I don’t really think that’s how it works. I’d expect Halter to pick up a share of these voters based purely on anti-incumbent spite, while others may simply crawl back into the woodwork, dissatisfied with both options. And for what it’s worth, Morrison says that he won’t be supporting either Dem in the runoff (or the general), and guesses that his supporters will split evenly between the two of them.

  On the Republican side, GOP Rep. John Boozman cleared the primary with an easy 53% of the vote over a very fractured Republican field. While Boozman gets the luxury of extra time to refill his war chest, it’s not the biggest loss in the world for Dems — we’re only talking about three weeks worth of time here.

• AR-01: Ex-state Sen. Tim Wooldridge is headed to a runoff against Marion Berry’s former Chief of Staff Chad Causey for the Democratic nomination here. Wooldridge, a fairly conservative fellow whom Bill Halter beat in a runoff for the Democratic Lt. Governor nod in 2006, came in first with 39% of the vote. Causey, who was endorsed by Berry and some labor groups, scored 27%. The winner of the runoff will face Republican radio broadcaster Rick Crawford, who easily beat Princella Smith, a former aide to future ex-Rep. Joe Cao, by a 73-27 margin.
• AR-02: Republicans nominated ex-US Attorney and Rove acolyte Tim Griffin over teabagging restaurateur Scott Wallace by a 62-38 margin, while Democrats sent state Sen. Joyce Elliott, a liberal African-American, to a runoff against state House Speaker Robbie Wills. Elliott won 40% of the vote to 28% for Wills. Departing Dem Rep. Vic Snyder’s former Chief of Staff, David Boling, came in third with 19%.
• AR-03: In a district that is essentially the home base of Republican muscle in Arkansas, it’s too bad ex-state Sen. Gunner DeLay didn’t manage to force himself into the runoff, if only to give us more opportunities to namedrop him. Instead, Republicans chose Rogers Mayor Steve Womack (31%) and state Sen. Cecile Bledsoe (13%) to advance to the runoff out of a very crowded field.

Kentucky:

• KY-Sen: In a night of amazing finishes, this one caused a lot of bubbly to be spilled in the SSP comments section. While Rand Paul sleepwalked to a 59-35 win over Trey Grayson, Attorney General Jack Conway executed a remarkable surge in the remaining weeks of the campaign, escaping a double-digit deficit to beat Dan Mongiardo by 44-43 for the Democratic nomination. Perhaps surprisingly, though, Mongiardo is holding out for a recanvass of the vote before he concedes. A recount will unlikely do much good for Dr. Dan, especially when you consider that there are still 13 precincts left to count in Conway-loving Jefferson County.

  Also, if this is any indication of Rand Paul’s campaign skills — hosting his victory party at an exclusive country club and then defending the choice on Good Morning America as non-elitist… because Tiger Woods brought golf to “the city youth” — this should be a pretty fun campaign.

• KY-03: Here’s another mild surprise. Despite a financial disadvantage, Air Force vet Todd Lally crushed Pizza Hut franchise baron and presumed front-runner Jeff Reetz by a 52-17 margin for the Republican nod to take on two-term Dem Rep. John Yarmuth. Reetz, in fact, did so poorly that he finished in third — right behind real estate investor Larry Hausman, who took 25% of the vote.
• KY-06: We initially expected retired coal executive Mike Templeman to give attorney Andy Barr a run for his money for the GOP nod to take on Democratic fixture Ben Chandler, but this race was nothing short of a blow-out. Barr dispatched Templeman by a 64-10 spread.

Oregon:

• In Oregon, surprises were few and far between. Polling had given ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber a big edge over ex-SoS Bill Bradbury going into the Democratic primary, and that was borne out by Kitzhaber’s 66-30 win. Although Bradbury was rhetorically running to Kitzhaber’s left, progressives don’t need to be disappointed by the result; Kitzhaber’s track record is as a health care innovator, and he’s clearly eager to push forward on that now that he has a reliably Democratic legislature and the state-level flexibility afforded by the new HCR law. Kitzhaber faces off against Republican victor Chris Dudley, who won with 40% of the vote in a crowded GOP field (which is still less than his 46% career free throw average in the NBA). Dudley fought off a late surge from Allen Alley, who finished at 32%, after trying to make inroads with the conservative wing once Dudley staked out the same moderate turf where Alley had hoped to compete.

  In the Senate race, Dem incumbent Ron Wyden picked up 90% of the vote; he faces a not-very-competitive race against Republican law professor Jim Huffman, the best known out of seven nobodies, who prevailed with 42%. The NRCC got its desired candidates in the two House districts where it’s hoping to compete this year. State Rep. Scott Bruun had a solid performance in OR-05, winning with 62%, while Rob Cornilles was a bit more underwhelming, winning with 41% against a teabagger-clogged field in OR-01. (Crisitunity)

Pennsylvania:

• PA-Sen: You gotta hand it to Joey Sestak. After months of stagnating in the polls and storing his powder safely in airtight Ziploc containers, he used some well-timed late hits to topple Arlen Specter by 54-46 in the Democratic primary. Given that Sestak has actually been performing more competitively than Specter against Republican Pat Toomey (who won his primary over Peg Lutsik by 63 points), this is probably good news over all for team blue.
• PA-Gov: In the end, it wasn’t close. Allegheny Co. Executive Dan Onorato beat state Auditor Jack Wagner by 45-24 for the Democratic gubernatorial nod. Two Philly-area candidates, state Senator (and school voucher advocate) Anthony Williams and ex-Rep. Joe Hoeffel combined for 31% of the vote. Onorato faces a bigger challenge now in defeating Republican AG Tom Corbett. Corbett beat his no-name opposition with 69% of the vote.
• PA-03: Auto dealer and ex-city councilman Mike Kelly narrowly beat well-funded retired businessman Paul Huber by 28-26. Kelly will be the Republican nominee against frosh Dem Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper this fall.
• PA-04: Politics ain’t beanbag, and Bush-era US Attorney Mary Beth Buchanan found that out the hard way last night. Expected to easily clinch the Republican nomination against Democrat Jason Altmire by beltway progs when she entered the race, her ineptitude on the campaign trail resulted in attorney Keith Rothfus pasting her by 33%. Better luck next time, Mary Beth!
• PA-06: In a night that gave us some pretty good news all around, this one is particularly special for SSP. Democratic physician Manan Trivedi upset rich guy Doug Pike, who had donated over $1 million of his own money to his campaign effort, by a 51-49 spread. It looks like Pike still hasn’t conceded, but he’ll have to face the truth sooner rather than later. And here’s a nickel’s worth of free advice that I’ll give to anyone who’s interested in running for Congress in the future: You Don’t Mess With The Project.
• PA-10: Another ex-Bush era US Attorney, Tom Marino, was touted as a strong recruit who’d have little difficulty winning his party’s nomination against Democrat Chris Carney. Things got a little dicey last night, but Marino did end up succeeding where Mary Beth Buchanan failed. Marino won the nod with a 41% plurality over chiropractor David Madeira and Snyder Co. Commissioner Malcolm Derk.
• PA-11: If there’s one race where things didn’t really work out for Democrats, it’s this one. Crusty incumbent Rep. Paul Kanjorski beat a divided Democratic primary field with only 49% of the vote — one of the weakest performances we’ve seen by an incumbent House member this cycle. That probably doesn’t bode well for the general election, where Kanjorski will face off with Lou Barletta for the third time.
• PA-12: Wow. After all the Republican swagger, did anyone honestly expect Democrat Mark Critz to beat Republican Tim Burns by 53-45 in the special election to replace John Murtha? Certainly Republicans appeared stunned, because I don’t think they would have tried to spin yarns like this one if they weren’t reeling from the result:
  

  “Republican Tim Burns ran an excellent campaign in one of the bluest of congressional districts,” Mr. Steele said in a statement Tuesday night. “Despite the fact that Pennsylvania’s 12th District has been a Democratic stronghold for more than 30 years and Democratic voters outnumber Republicans by more than 2 to 1, Republican Tim Burns pushed his Democratic opponent to the wire.”

  “One of the bluest” CDs? Shah! Right! Obviously Mikey was not reading from the same hymnbook as ex-Rep. Tom Davis:

  Tom Davis, a former Republican House member and top party campaign strategist, saw the win by Democrat Mark Critz, a former aide to Mr. Murtha, over Republican Tim Burns as a serious blow to the Republican claim to be within reach of the 40 seats needed to recapture the House.

  “If you can’t win a seat that is trending Republican in a year like this, then where is the wave?” asked Mr. Davis, who said Republicans will need to examine what went wrong. “It would be a huge upset not to win this seat.”

  Or Charlie Cook, for that matter, from late April:

  Republicans have no excuse to lose this race. The fundamentals of this district, including voters’ attitudes towards Obama and Pelosi, are awful for Democrats. And Democratic party registration advantages here are just as obsolete as GOP’s advantages in Upstate New York were last year. Timing is no excuse for Republicans either. This special election, not the competitive statewide Democratic primaries held the same day, will be driving turnout on May 18th.

  Meanwhile, Burns managed to win his primary over direct mail scammer Bill Russell by 57-43, which means he gets the pleasure of facing Critz again in November. It’s pretty rare for the loser of a special election to win the rematch in the next general election. The last example of such a casualty, that I can come up with, was half-term Dem Rep. Peter Barca, who won a special election against Republican Mark Neumann in 1993. Neumann came back to beat Barca in ’94. Otherwise, this type of situation is pretty rare.

• PA-17: Democrat Tim Holden seemed to aggravate the base of his party with his vote against HCR, resulting in only a 65% win last night over his no-money primary challenger, Sheila Dow-Ford. On the Republican side, state Sen. Dave Argall only managed to beat veteran Frank Ryan by 1.4%.
• PA-19: Despite speculation that semi-sane GOP Rep. Todd Platts was endangering himself by openly seeking an appointment from Barack Obama to lead the Government Accountability Office, Platts dispatched teabagging challenger Mike Smeltzer by a 70-30 margin.

The result that caught me by surprise on Tuesday night was PA-12. I wasn’t surprised Critz won, but by nine percentage points in what was supposed to be a Republican year in a district where both Obama and HCR have polled abysmally?

Does this mean that we should start questioning how Republican 2010 going to be? Is even a prediction of a 20-seat Republican gain in the House and and a three seat gain in the Senate too optimistic for the Republicans?

At this point, I think the answer might be a definite “maybe”.

A couple caveats. I’ve heard the argument that Critz benefited substantially by having the election on the same day as a competitive Dem primary. I’m not buying it. Might have been good for one percentage point at best. The best analysis I’ve seen of this issue is (oddly) National Review, where Jim Geraghty strikes this meme down cold.

I also don’t buy the Dems had a registration edge here: that’s no more a factor than it was in the New York districts where the Republican candidates still lost despite a Republican edge. With Obama’s low approvals, this district was tailor made for a Republican win, not a big win for the Democrat.

So below the fold, here’s my thoughts about what PA-12 shows.

1). The enthusiasm gap is a myth (for now)

Most polls have found an enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Dems favoring the former, although the gap has been shrinking in recent weeks. But when push comes to vote, it doesn’t seem like the enthusiasm was there, at least on the Republican side. My theory: disapproval of Obama, unlike the disapproval of Clinton in 1994 or Bush in 2006, is not translating into motivation. My guess is that Obama will hover at 50 percent until November, but he doesn’t seem to inspire the dislike that Clinton and Bush inspired (and of course, if his approval remains at 50 percent it will be higher than either Bush in 2006 or Clinton in 1994). The polls that were picking up a close race or even a small Burns lead were picking up at least some voters who thought they might be motivated to vote for the Republican, but when election day actually came, found better things to do. (minor point: pollsters should not bother to poll congressional districts for special elections. I’m looking at you, PPP). Last thing: the Republican party still has not recovered its reputation, and this is contributing to its problems of getting the vote out.

2).  Candidates and campaigns matter

Critz turned out to have the perfect campaign for this district. He took conservative stands (more conservative than Murtha), including opposing HCR (although also opposing repeal), he talked about how he had helped Murtha bring money to the district, and he painted Burns as a right-wing outsourcer who wanted to raise the sales tax and slash social security. It also helped that his most competitive primary opponent, Barbara Hafer, withdrew, meaning he did not have to endure interparty sniping (see below). One reason why the DCCC has become so adept at winning these special elections is by ensuring the Democrats have only one main candidate who fits the district well (I realize there were minor candidates in PA-12). The one place they weren’t able to do that is Hawaii, which come Saturday is a probable loss. The quality of Democratic candidates, and the campaigns they run, will have a good effect in countering any residual gap in enthusiasm that appears.

3). The Republican civil war is hurting Republican candidates.

Burns not only was running against Critz, but also William Russell, who was so bitter about Burns getting the endorsement for the special election that he refused to say anything supportive of his candidacy. Russell took 43 percent of the vote in the primary, and one can imagine a lot of his voters refusing to vote for Burns in the special. This didn’t cost Burns the election, but it certainly hurt (in contrast, I don’t think either of Critz’s primary opponents actively attacked him). While I don’t think Russell campaigned as a tea party guy, this civil war between Republican candidates, tea party endorsed or not, is playing out across the country, with negative implications for the Republicans across the board. Yes, we also see interparty warfare breaking out among Democrats, but mostly in a few Senate races (and of the ones that are left, only Halter-Lincoln comes to mind as comparable).

So, my thought is that we may need to revise our predictions of Republicans gains, to 1 oor 2 or perhaps even in the Senate and the low teens in the House. The caveat: this could change for the negative, if the economy goes south again (Greece, anyone?), if a terrorist attack occurs, or something else unexpected happens. It’s only May, after all. (I’m not sure it can change for the better – I’d say even in the Senate and low teen gain in the house is about the best we can do).

OK, who goofed?  Dave Weigel reports that Tim Crawford, the guy who won the Democratic primary earlier this month in IN-05, is a certifiable teabagger who seems to hate everything about Democrats and Obama.

Just look at what he’s written on his Facebook page.

So… anti-health care reform, thinks we’re all socialists, and a Tenther to boot!

How’d Indiana Democrats let this happen?  Nonpartisan had me convinced Nasser Hanna, an actual Democrat, would be the Democratic nominee.  Instead… we got Crawford, who handily won the primary, 61%-39%.

Ugh.