Month: July 2010

SurveyUSA (7/22-25, likely voters, no trend lines):

Martin Heinrich (D-inc): 45

Jon Barela (R): 51

Undecided: 4

(MoE: ±4.2%)

There’s been a lot of chatter today about this explosive new SUSA poll showing frosh Democrat Martin Heinrich trailing his Republican challenger, former Albuquerque Hispanic Chamber of Commerce leader Jon Barela. Let’s slice this sucker open and take a look at the innards.

SurveyUSA polled this contest once before in 2008 and several times in 2006 — culminating in an early November poll showing a razor-thin lead for Democrat Patsy Madrid. Let’s take a look at three demographic yardsticks from each poll, starting with its sample composition of 18-34 year-olds, a particularly controversial age bracket for SUSA this cycle:

	Nov-06	Aug-08	Jul-10
Vote Share	24%	20%	16%
Dem Margin	8%	37%	-3%

Next up, Hispanic voters:

	Nov-06	Aug-08	Jul-10
Vote Share	37%	24%	27%
Dem Margin	16%	23%	13%

And, finally, party affiliation:

	Nov-06	Aug-08	Jul-10
Democratic	46%	47%	45%
Republican	39%	36%	39%
Independent	13%	16%	16%

Nothing particularly dramatic outside of Heinrich’s supposed collapse among younger voters. I’m inclined to believe this is a real race (though I’m not yet convinced that Heinrich is actually down).

In response, Heinrich’s campaign released an internal poll of their own. Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (7/8-13, likely voters, 4/28-5/2 in parens):

Martin Heinrich (D-inc): 53 (55)

Jon Barela (R): 41 (38)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

At the very least, this race is getting closer — which isn’t good news for anyone.

11:01pm: Drew Edmondson’s conceded the race to Jari Askins, who’s still holding onto her 2,000 vote lead. That’s a wrap, folks!

10:47pm: Big chunk of Tulsa precincts just reported, closing Edmondson within 1%. This last batch was only slightly more pro-Edmondson than expected, leaving our projection at 50.28% Askins.

10:43pm: Canadian County’s also completely reported, shifting from a 7-vote Edmondson lead to a 4-vote Askins lead. That hardly budges the needle when it comes to the projection, we’re still saying 50.31% Askins. Three counties are left, but the bulk of remaining precincts are in Edmondson’s stronghold of Tulsa.

10:21pm: Rogers County has finally reported, adding a bit more than 5,700 votes into the race. (The mainframe is still good for some things!) Edmondson’s 53-47 haul there tightens the projection further, now to 50.31% Askins, with about 11,000 votes outstanding.

10:07pm: Here at SSP, we’re entertaining ourselves by speculating on what’s taking Rogers County so long to report results. We usually assume to ganja breaks, but this is suburban Tulsa, after all. In all seriousness, we’re estimating roughly 5,700 votes from Rogers County – Dem turnout’s been about 26% of the registered total; Rogers County has 22,000 registered Dems.

10:00pm: More than three hours in, and still nothing from Rogers County. The bulk of outstanding OK County precincts are in, only slightly less Askins-friendly than expected, nudging her predicted total to 50.38%.

9:40pm: The incoming precincts continue to be more Edmondson-friendly than expected, Askins is down to a predicted 50.46%, with the Rogers County caveat still applicable. With much of Tulsa left outstanding, it’ll likely come down to how the remaining OKC precincts swing.

9:36pm: Dan Boren is one lucky fellow. A runoff’s been called in OK-02 between Edmonds and Thompson, neither of whom has raised more than $24k this cycle (or has more than $1k cash-on-hand, for that matter).

9:25pm: We’re still looking at 51.00% for Askins, but an important caveat – we know nothing about Rogers County, which is next to Edmondson’s Tulsa stronghold.

9:19pm: Some more Edmondson-friendly territory in just now, dropping our prediction for Askins to 51% flat with about 65,000 votes left to count. Little movement in OK-02, where Daniel Edmonds is still almost doubling up Daniel Arnett in competition for that second runoff slot.

9:13pm: The last two sets of updates have been remarkably consistent for Jari Askins – her predicted vote share moved from 51.23% to 51.22% to 51.24%. We’re estimating now about 80,000 left out there.

9:04pm: 62% reporting statewide now; Askins continues to hold a slim 52-48 lead. Back-of-envelope says Askins by 2.5% with about 88,000 votes still floating in the ether.

9:00pm: A runoff’s been called for OK-05 as well, with Kevin Calvey at 34 slightly ahead of Jim Lankford at 32. Mike Thompson lags at 17; Shane Jett’s at 12.

8:53pm: The AP’s called half the runoff in OK-02, with the scarlet letter floating next to Charles Thompson’s name. He’s at 34%, followed by Daniel Edmonds at 27% and Daniel Arnett at 14%.

8:49pm: The mainframe’s finally warmed up, and the back-of-punchcard calculations are saying  Askins by 3%. Edmondson’s cleaning house in his home base of Tulsa 61-39, but Oklahoma County is leaning towards Askins 52-48. Askins is also doing well in the south of the state (her base), scoring 82-18 in Stephens County (Duncan) and 68-32 in Comanche County (Lawton).

8:40pm: For OK-05, the AP’s called the Dem nod for Billy Coyle, a former Marine and current OKC lawyer; despite this district’s swing towards Obama in 2008, he’ll face an uphill climb in November.

8:37pm: A big influx of precincts brings us to 42% reporting; Askins continues to hold a 53-47 lead for the Gov nod. Thompson at 34 and Edmonds at 27 continue to look like runoff contenders in OK-02 (R), as do Calvey at 33 and Lankford at 31 in OK-05 (R). We’ll put the call to SSP Labs to boot up the mainframe, should the Gov (D) race stay close.

8:34pm: The AP’s called the Governor’s race on the GOP side for Mary Fallin, following the trajectory of her Congressional predecessor, Ernest Istook.

8:30pm: One-third reporting for Governor now, Askins still has a 53-47 lead, while Fallin continues to cruise with 60 on the (R) side.

8:26pm: The AP’s now called OK-01 for John Sullivan, who’s at 65% – a number we’ve seen pretty frequently this primary cycle for underwhelming incumbents on both sides.

8:17pm: The AP’s now running slightly ahead of the OK SEB, and the two sources have converged on 53-47 Askins for Gov-D and 58% for Fallin on the R side.

8:14pm: In the House races, OK-02 and OK-05 are two similar stories of two candidates pulling away. In OK-02, Edmonds and Thompson are ahead; in OK-05, it’s Calvey and Lankford. In OK-01, Sullivan’s still pulling a less-than-stellar but far-from-worrisome 65%.

8:08pm: Jari Askins continues to exceed expectations in the Gov (D) race, the AP (36,000 cast) has her with a 55-45 lead; the OK SEB has her with some newfound daylight at 53-47 (46,000 cast). Fallin’s still clearing a runoff on the (R) side.

8:01pm: While the AP and OK SEB disagree on the Dem side for Governor, they’re in agreement on Mary Fallin’s 59% haul so far. In OK-02 (R), Daniel Edmonds and Charles Thompson have broken away from the field, but are still in runoff territory. The AP’s also called OK-04 for Tom Cole, who’s scoring 80%.

7:56pm: Edmondson continues to close on Askins for the Dem nod for Governor, now 51-49 according to the SEB with 25,000 votes cast. The AP has 18,000 votes cast and a 56-44 Askins lead.

7:53pm: Off in OK-01, six lined up to challenge incumbent GOPer John Sullivan, but only 2 are in the double digits; Sullivan has 67% or 69%, depending on source.

7:51pm: More precincts keep trickling in. The OK SEB has 5% reporting and a 53-47 Askins lead for Gov (D); Fallin’s still looking at an outright win, with 59% right now. AP has this at 57-43 Askins and Fallin at 62%.

7:48pm: Love him or hate him, Dan Boren seems on track for reelection. The AP’s just called OK-02 in his favor.

7:46pm: Again the OK SEB and the AP are showing their discrepancies. The OK SEB has Calvey ahead at 39 and Lankford at 30, with the rest of the field still trailing.

7:44pm: In the OK-05 free-for-all, now 3% reporting, Lankford’s at 35 and Calvey at 30. Thompson’s at 18, Jett at 12. In the OK-02 (R) six-way brawl, Charles Thompson’s leading. He’s at 40 according to the AP, but the OK SEB has him clearing a runoff with 55.

7:39pm: The geographic discrepancy is already quite obvious in OK-02 (D), where Boren’s ahead 69-31. Wilson’s leading 57-43 in the counties that overlap his SD, but is getting demolished 75-25 elsewhere.

7:32pm: The AP’s called the OK-Sen (R) primary for Tom Coburn, who holding steady at 91%.

7:29pm: On the Republican side, Tom Cole is easily dispatching his opponent in OK-04 79-21; Mary Fallin is still on track for an outright win with 60% by the AP/Politico and 58% by the OK SEB.

7:25pm: Politico and the OK SEB seem to be reporting different areas; Politico’s absentees, for example, have Askins up 59-41, while the SEB’s 17 (presumably election-day) precincts show a 58-42 Askins.

7:23pm: Tom Coburn has 2 primary challengers but seemingly little difficulty, earning 91% in the first few precincts. In OK-05, Jim Lankford and Kevin Calvey have a bit of distance between then and Mike Thompson, who’s in 3rd. Boren’s now leading in OK-02, 71-29 according to Politico; the OK SEB has this at 52-48 Boren.

7:17pm: With a single precinct reporting in OK-02, Jim Wilson has a 57-43 lead over Dan Boren. No info on where that precinct is; Wilson represents three counties (Adair, Cherokee, and Sequoyah) in the state Senate.

7:15pm: Just a few votes here and there so far; Jari Askins has a 35-vote lead over Drew Edmondson in the Dem Gov race, while Mary Fallin’s 3% out of runoff territory.

This is about to get real.

RESULTS: Associated Press | OK SEB | Politico

• CO-Sen: Andrew Romanoff, who’s had seeming trouble articulating a motivation for his primary campaign against appointee Michael Bennet (other than “it was my turn”), still seems like he’s confident in his chances of winning the primary. He just doubled down by selling his house and lending the $325K proceeds to his campaign (or maybe he was just eager to sell the dump, anyway). Romanoff had $464K CoH on June 30, but most of that has been gobbled up by ad buys. Also on the ad front in Colorado, the shadowy, Ken Buck-backing 501(c)(4) Americans for Job Security is out with another anti-Jane Norton ad, attacking her over her support for anti-TABOR Proposition C.

• DE-Sen: Christine O’Donnell, the forgotten right-winger in the Delaware GOP primary against Rep. Mike Castle, keeps hitting wingnut paydirt. Having already secured the Susan B. Anthony List endorsement, she’s now getting backing from two more of the engines pulling the crazy train: the Tea Party Express (the corporate astroturf umbrella org for the teabaggers), and Concerned Women for America (Phyllis Schlafly’s group). The Politico article includes a litany of O’Donnell’s baggage as rattled off by Delaware’s GOP state party chair, so it seems like the establishment is taking note and starting to push back.

• FL-Sen: Well, that was fast; I guess when you have a few hundred million dollars at your disposal, you can whip up ads pretty quickly (or just have  a couple extra sitting in the can, ready to go). With Kendrick Meek having launched his first Dem primary ad yesterday, a negative ad against Jeff Greene, today Greene hit back with two different anti-Meek ads. One focuses on Meek’s family connections to a corrupt developer, and the other focuses on the cigar-maker carveout from SCHIP. As always, NWOTSOB.

• KY-Sen: The Jack Conway camp has leaked Daily Kos an internal from Benenson giving them a 44-44 tie with Rand Paul, and a 48-46 lead over Paul with leaners pushed. The poll’s a little stale, having been taken June 26-29, but it’s good news; if nothing else, it’s confirmation for the most recent PPP poll, which also saw a tie. We have a copy of the full memo here. Another small reason for optimism in the Bluegrass State: there’s word of a new (and apparently nameless, for now) 527 headed by former progressive Democratic ’08 Senate candidate Andrew Horne, that will be playing in the Kentucky race. They have $2 million pledged by various business leaders to work with, and they’ve lined up Anzalone Liszt and Zata|3 to work for them.

• CT-Gov: This is one of my favorite headlines since “Lamborn Primaried by Local Crank“: “Looney Backs Malloy in Governor’s Bid.” (Martin Looney is the state Senate majority leader.)

• FL-Gov: Taking a page from Raul Labrador, Bill McCollum’s out with an internal. His own poll from McLaughlin & Associates finds him trailing Rick Scott 37-31. (The polling memo actually has the audacity to ask, “Why hasn’t Rick Scott done better?”)

• MD-Gov: Local pollster Gonzales Research is out with their second look at the Maryland gubernatorial race; they find a 45-42 lead for Martin O’Malley over Robert Ehrlich, which very closely echoes the PPP poll from a few weeks ago. Their trendlines go back to January, when a Ehrlich re-run was only vaguely being discussed; then, O’Malley had a 9-point lead.

• MN-Gov: Fundraising reports in Minnesota were due yesterday. GOPer Tom Emmer might well need to use that giant jar of pennies he had dumped on his table in order to buy some ad time, as he’s lagging on the financial front. Emmer has less than $300K CoH and raised under $800K in the first six months of the year, while DFL endorsee Margaret Anderson Kelliher has $385K CoH and raised about $1 million. Kelliher, however, still might not get out of her primary against two rich guys: Matt Entenza raised $360K during that period but also loaned himself $3.5 million (and spent $3.9 million, mostly on TV ads). Mark Dayton hasn’t filed yet.

• OR-Gov: Republican Chris Dudley is padding his financial advantage over John Kitzhaber in Oregon’s gubernatorial race: he’s raised $850K since the May 18 primary, compared with $269K for Kitzhaber. Dudley has raised $2.6 million all cycle long, compared with Kitz’s $1.7 million. (One historical note, though: Ted Kulongoski was easily re-elected in 2006 despite being outspent by opponent Ron Saxton and his $7 million.) Much of Dudley’s money seems to be coming in from out-of-state, as the former NBA player and current financial advisor is getting a lot of Wall Street and sports industry money. Interestingly, the timber industry, usually a Republican force in the state, is staying largely on the sidelines this election, as they’re fairly friendly with Kitzhaber.

• TN-Gov: Having nowhere to go in the GOP primary polls but up, Lt. Governor Ron Ramsey is going the out-and-proud Islamophobe route. Spurred on by the ongoing controversy over the construction of a mosque in Murfreesboro, Ramsey, in response to a question at an appearance, said, “You could even argue whether being a Muslim is actually a religion or is it a nationality, way of life or cult, whatever you want to call it.”

• ID-01: Raul Labrador, a conspicuous absence from the NRCC’s anyone-with-a-pulse Young Guns program, says that he “opted out” of the Young Guns. (Yeah… just like I “opted out” of junior prom.) He didn’t give a specific reason why, although tensions between him and the NRCC have been high.

• MN-03: I’m not exactly sure why Jim Meffert thought it was a good idea to release this internal, but I guess he needed to let people know that he’s actually contesting this thing. His poll (no mention of the pollster in the article) finds him trailing freshman GOP Rep. Erik Paulsen 44-27, with 7% for an IP candidate. The number he’d probably like us to focus on is that Paulsen has only a 33% re-elect (although only 12% say they’re a definite “no”).

• MN-06: Seems like Johnny Law doesn’t like Michele Bachmann’s particularly freaky brand of law and order: the state’s police union, the Minnesota Police and Peace Officers Association, just gave its endorsement to Dem Tarryl Clark in the 6th.

• RI-01: The American Federation of Teachers, having just endorsed indie Lincoln Chafee instead of Dem Frank Caprio, also went for unconventional with their 1st District endorsement. They went for young up-and-comer state Rep. David Segal, who’s tried to stake out the most progressive turf in the Dem primary, instead of Providence mayor and presumed frontrunner David Cicilline.

• TN-09: On top of having gotten SSP’s annual John Hostettler Award for outstanding performance at filing quarterly reports (for failing to electronically file his FEC report on time, despite having only $19K CoH), Willie Herenton got a much worse piece of news: the Congressional Black Caucus either doesn’t think much of his chances, or think much of him. Although they wouldn’t let Steve Cohen join their club in 2007, they did just endorse him, and sent $5,000 his way.

• Rasmussen:

• AL-Sen: William Barnes (D) 29%, Richard Shelby (R-inc) 59%

• AZ-Sen (D): Rodney Glassman (D) 15%, Cathy Eden (D) 11%, Randy Parraz (D) 10%, John Dougherty (D) 7%

• CO-Sen: Andrew Romanoff (D) 40%, Jane Norton (R) 44%

• CO-Sen: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 39%, Jane Norton (R) 48%

• CO-Sen: Andrew Romanoff (D) 42%, Ken Buck (R) 48%

• CO-Sen: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 42%, Ken Buck (R) 48%

• MA-Gov: Deval Patrick (D-inc) 38%, Charlie Baker (R) 32%, Tim Cahill (I) 17%

PPP (pdf) (7/23-25, New Hampshire voters, 4/17-18 in parentheses):

Paul Hodes (D): 42 (40)

Kelly Ayotte (R): 45 (47)

Undecided: 13 (13)

Paul Hodes (D): 41 (41)

Bill Binnie (R): 46 (46)

Undecided: 13 (13)

Paul Hodes (D): 43 (43)

Jim Bender (R): 42 (40)

Undecided: 16 (18)

Paul Hodes (D): 43 (43)

Ovide Lamontagne (R): 38 (38)

Undecided: 18 (19)

(MoE: ±3.3%)

It looks like Sarah Palin is one former point guard that you don’t want an assist from… or more specifically, her endorsement is great in the GOP primary, but poison in the general. It turns out that 26% of voters say her endorsement would may it more likely that they’d vote for her endorsee, while 51% say it would make them less likely. In this race, Kelly Ayotte got the endorsement, and it seems to have had exactly that effect, in that Ayotte is the only candidate for whom the spread against Democrat Paul Hodes got tighter since April.

Moderates really seem to dominate the field (47% are moderate here, with 23% liberal and 30% conservative), and that also may explain why Bill Binnie, who’s portraying himself as the most moderate of the GOP field here, is now faring the best against Hodes. (It’ll be interesting to see whether he can get out of the conservative-dominated GOP primary, though, and Tom Jensen hints that he won’t. Presumably PPP will release primary numbers tomorrow.) The Palin effect is particularly pronounced among moderates: 14% say more likely, 65% say less likely.  

Looking into the fine print, I’m also noticing something very unusual here: Granite Staters seem to dislike every single candidate in this race (Hodes at 35/40, Ayotte 36/39, Binnie 27/33, Bender 15/28, Lamontagne 16/33), which is probably attributable to the negative ads currently filling the air. But in a marked departure from most other states, they actually approve of their elected officials (Barack Obama 49/47, Judd Gregg 44/39, Jeanne Shaheen 45/44).

A relatively low-key week in primaries; with just Oklahoma on tap.

Predictions? Toss ’em in the comments; polls close at 7pm Central (8pm Eastern).

• OK-Gov (D): The race is on to replace term-limited Dem Brad Henry, with Lieutenant Governor Jari Askins and Attorney General Drew Edmondson running to hold this one for team Blue. Both are statewide elected officials (LG in Oklahoma is elected separately) and have their street cred, but the two recent polls of this race have given Edmondson a 49-33 and a 38-27 lead. As we mentioned in yesterday’s digest, Askins just scored a big endorsement from former OU football coach Barry Switzer, but Edmondson still retains the advantage here.
• OK-Gov (R): A congressperson from the 5th CD holding a sizeable lead over a lesser-known state official in the Republican primary? If this all seems a bit deja vu, it is. In 2006, then OK-05 Rep. Ernest Istook bested state Energy Secretary Bob Sullivan 55-31; now we see if Istook’s successor Mary Fallin can repeat the feat against Tulsa-area State Senator Randy Brogdon. Recent polls suggest she will, pegging her lead at 56-18 and 50-22, respectively. There are also two Some Dudes in the race, which will go to a runoff in a month if Fallin can’t claim 50%+1 tonight.
• OK-02 (D): Dan Boren is one of the most conservative Dems in the 111th Congress, which has drawn him a challenger in Jim Wilson, a state senator from the northeastern part of the state. Wilson is hitting Boren hard from his left flank, but it’s unlikely that’s catching much traction in this conservative, though ancestrally Democratic, district. Wilson’s own internal had him down 62-17. Boren isn’t resting on his polling laurels though and has been on the airwaves; the question isn’t whether he’ll win, just by how much.
• OK-02 (R): Boren’s conservative voting record doesn’t dissuade challengers; no fewer than six GOPers have stepped up to the plate. Three – Chester Falling, Charles Thompson and ’08 loser Raymond Wickson – haven’t needed to file FEC reports. Businessman Howard Houchen is the best funded of the three remaining (having a raised a whopping $70k…); rounding out the field are law student Dan Arnett ($9k raised) and rancher Daniel Edmonds ($23k). Given the sheer number of candidates here – none of whom are all that well known – a runoff is almost assured.
• OK-05 (R): The field’s crowded in the race to replace would-be Governor Mary Fallin as well. Two are familiar faces from the open seat race in 2006, doctor Johnny Roy (who scored 3% in 2006) and former State Rep. Kevin Calvey (10%). Other likely contenders include Christian camp director James Lankford, and a pair of State Reps, Mike Thompson of OKC and Shane Jett of more rural Pottawatomie County. A recent poll had Calvey at 28, Lankford at 20, Thompson 15, Jett at 6, and Roy at 2. That represents a surge for Lankford, but Thompson’s $262k CoH (and $900k+ raised this cycle) can’t be counted out. Two more round out the seven-man field, which will be narrowed to two before an almost-certain runoff.

We’ve been a little slow in getting this out over at the Lexington Avenue office of SSP Quarterly, but thanks to the heroic efforts of Contributing Editor Jeffmd, who compiled something in the ballpark of 85% of these numbers with his own bare hands, we now have our full spreadsheet of noteworthy 2Q House fundraising numbers for you to enjoy.

A few notes:

• Democratic challengers who outraised Republican incumbents: Ami Bera (CA-03), Steve Pougnet (CA-45)
• Republican challengers who outraised Democratic incumbents: David Harmer (CA-11), Allen West (FL-22), Mike Keown (GA-02), Austin Scott (GA-08), Adam Kinzinger (IL-11), Jackie Walorski (IN-02), Todd Young (IN-09), Todd Lally (KY-03), Andy Barr (KY-06), Rocky Raczkowski (MI-09), Alan Nunnelee (MS-01), Ilario Pantano (NC-07), Harold Johnson (NC-08), Steve Pearce (NM-02), Chris Gibson (NY-20), Steve Chabot (OH-01), Bill Johnson (OH-06), Steve Stivers (OH-15), Jim Renacci (OH-16), Lou Barletta (PA-11), Tim Burns (PA-12), Kristi Noem (SD-AL), Bill Flores (TX-17), Quico Canseco (TX-23), Scott Rigell (VA-02), Morgan Griffith (VA-09), Dan Kapanke (WI-03)
• Democratic challengers with more cash-on-hand than Republican incumbents: Ami Bera (CA-03), Suzan Delbene (WA-08)

• Republican challengers with more cash-on-hand than Democratic incumbents: Randy Altschuler (NY-01), Nan Hayworth (NY-19), Matt Doheny (NY-23), Steve Chabot (OH-01), Tom Ganley (OH-13), Steve Stivers (OH-15)
  

As you’re probably now aware, the DCCC has reserved $28 million worth of ad time to help shore up the re-election campaigns of 40 incumbents (and one open seat campaign) this fall. While we don’t know how much money will be spent everywhere, the Hotline has a partial list of dollar figures for a few select districts. Let’s look at the fab forty-one in chart form (click on the table headers to sort):

(†Special election margins)

Note that the DCCC does not necessarily need to use these reservations. (For example, the DCCC reserved $2.1 million in 2008 to beat up the Republican nominee in NY-13’s open seat race, but ultimately didn’t spend a dime against Bob “The Wiener King of Manhattan” Straniere.) Also note that the DCCC has yet to reserve time in any open seats (aside from Dennis Moore’s) or Republican-held districts.

The scary thing is that I can think of a few dozen more Democratic incumbents whom the DCCC might feel compelled to drop some significant coin on defending.

Netroots Nation: In case you missed it, click the link to watch the video of our panel on the 2010 horserace from last Friday at Netroots Nation. It was a terrific, fast-paced panel and we were asked a broad range of questions on a ton of different races. Fun stuff! Also of interest, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner conducted a straw poll of convention-goers. They included one horserace-ish question, asking participants which race was their top priority this fall. 31% picked NV-Sen, followed by PA-Sen (25%), KY-Sen (21%), MN-06 (15%), and VA-05 (7%).

CA-Sen: The NRSC has reserved $1.75 million in ad time for Carly Fiorina – but remember, just cuz you reserve time doesn’t mean you necessarily wind up buying it, so this could just be a feint.

FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek is up with his first ad, attacking zillionaire schmuckface Jeff Greene for his past run for Congress in California – as a Republican – and for the windfall he reaped by betting on a housing market collapse two years ago. Adam Smith of the St. Pete Times says the buy is for $420K, which he thinks is “pretty small” for the pretty big state of Florida.

IL-Sen: Mark Kirk is pulling a Pat Toomey. You’ll recall that the ultra-conservative Pennsylvania senate candidate somewhat surprisingly endorsed Sonia Sotomayor’s nomination for the Supreme Court. Now it’s Kirk’s turn to try to burnish his “moderate” credentials, so he’s backing Elena Kagan.

Meanwhile, here’s some new craziness: A federal district court judge just ordered a special election to fill the remaining months of Roland Burris’s term, most likely to coincide with the regular election in November. Both Kirk and Dem Alexi Giannoulias have said they want to run in the special, and they probably won’t have to face a primary, since the judge seems inclined to allow nominees to be picked by party committees. Politico points out a potentially huge angle to all of this: the FEC says that since the special would constitute a new election, the candidates would be able to raise fresh money for that race – meaning that Kirk and Giannoulias could hit up maxed-out donors once more.

PA-Sen: But wait! Pat Toomey isn’t pulling a Pat Toomey! He’s coming out against Elena Kagan.

WV-Sen: When early word came that Rep. Shelley Moore Capito wouldn’t run for Robert Byrd’s seat, we said that we’d move the race to Likely D. Capito made it official last Wednesday, so consider this move retroactive to that date.

MI-Gov: Bummer: Detroit Mayor Dave Bing has endorsed DLC Dem Andy Dillon, whom Dillon called a “kindred spirit.” Given Bing’s outsider status and short tenure, I suspect he’s not quite a “machine” mayor, though, who can deliver wards on the turn of a heel.

MN-Gov: Republican gubernatorial nominee Tom Emmer continues to burnish his moron credentials. The other day, he declared that Minnesota should pass its own GI bill to help veterans. Good idea, right? So good, in fact, that the state actually passed such a law three years ago. Even better: Emmer, a state representative, voted against the bill!

RI-Gov: Linc Chafee won the endorsement of the 10,000-strong Rhode Island Federation of Teachers and Health Professionals, his first big union nod. The Projo says that the teachers had been favored to go to AG Patrick Lynch, but Lynch rather unexpectedly dropped out of the race not long ago, and evidently Dem Treasurer Frank Caprio didn’t suit them.

SC-Gov: Nikki Haley, a member of the Strength Through Crippling Austerity wing of the Republican Party, is trying to soften (i.e., flip-flop) some of her less business-friendly stances. The AP explains her shifts on two issues: the infamous anti-tax pledge sponsored by Americans for Tax Reform, and the bailout.

IL-17: Can an internal poll sometimes seem just too good? That’s how I feel about this survey by Magellan Strategies for GOPer Bobby Schilling, which has him up 45-32 over Dem Rep. Phil Hare. YMMV.

NY-13: John McCain is endorsing former FBI agent Mike Grimm in the GOP primary. Grimm has faced hostility from the Republican establishment here, which has backed Michael Allegretti (whom Maggie Haberman delightfully refers to with the epithet “Bayside fuel heir”). Apparently, McCain (who has a race of his own to worry about) will both fundraise and campaign for Grimm, though no word yet on when. As for why he’s getting involved, Haberman says it’s because of his relationship with Rudy Giuliani and Guy Molinari, both of whom are supporting Grimm.

NY-15: Charlie Rangel’s autobiography is titled “And I Haven’t Had a Bad Day Since,” referring to his service in the Korean War. Well, it sure seems like he’s had more than a few bad days lately, with the latest batch coming in the last week. The House Ethics Committee declared on Thursday that Rangel had indeed committed transgressions and created a new panel to investigate further. In response, Indiana senate candidate Brad Ellsworth announced he would give to charity all the money he’s received from Rangel (some $12K). Rep. Betty Sutton (OH-13) went one further, calling on Rangel to resign. For the record, Rangel disagrees with me, saying: “I’m not in a foxhole, I’m not surrounded by a million Chinese communists coming after me. Life is good. I’m 80 years old. I’m on my way to a parade.”

OK-05: SoonerPoll.com has a survey out of the 5th CD Republican field, finding former state Rep. Kevin Calvey increasing his lead from 20 to 28 since the last test in March. Some Dude James Lankford is in second with 20, followed by 15 for state Rep. Mike Thompson, 6 for state Rep. Shane Jett, and a bunch of other Some Dudes bringing up the rear.

PA-15: This is what we call a good get: Bill Clinton will be coming to Salisbury Township for a fundraiser for John Callahan on August 10th. As is so often the case with the Big Dog, this is payback for Callahan’s support of Hillary Clinton’s presidential bid in 2008.

TN-09: Willie Herenton, asshole until the end:

Willie W. Herenton, the former mayor, is accusing Steve Cohen, the white two-term United States representative, of “trying to act black.” He tells voters in this majority-black city that they “need to come off that Cohen plantation and get on the Herenton freedom train.”

WI-03: State Sen. Dan Kapanke has an internal out from Public Opinion Strategies (memo here) which shows Dem Rep. Ron Kind up just 44-38.

SurveyUSA (7/17-20, likely voters, no trend lines):

Rick Boucher (D-inc): 52

Morgan Griffith (R): 39

Jeremiah Heaton (I): 5

Undecided: 5

(MoE: ±4.2%)

Continuing the clean-up of items we missed while boozing it up in Las Vegas, SurveyUSA’s next stop on their Virginia road trip is the much-hyped match-up between veteran Democratic incumbent Rick Boucher and Virginia House of Delegates Majority Leader Morgan Griffith. Compared to the absolute carnage that SUSA projected in their poll of Democrat Tom Perriello’s race, this poll looks a lot more comforting for Team Blue. Still, like we did for the Perriello poll, it’s worth comparing SUSA’s 2010 likely voter universe to their work in previous cycles.

We have to look back to July 2006 in order to find SurveyUSA’s previous poll of this district. In that poll, Boucher led Bill Carrico, also a member of the state House of Delegates, by 66-29. Boucher ultimately won that race by a 68-32 spread, so I think it’s safe to say that SUSA nailed it four years ago. That year, SUSA’s likely voter model had a 21% sample composition of 18-34 year-olds, who favored Boucher by a whopping 65-31 margin. This year, SUSA’s likely voter screen only has a 12% sample of 18-34 year-olds who favor Griffith over Boucher by an eye-popping 61-31 margin. The sample of self-identified conservatives has shot up from 40% in 2006 to 54% today. As for party composition, SUSA’s screen has shifted from 38D-35R-25I in 2006 to 33D-35R-29I this year, which seems like it could be an entirely reasonable turnout projection.

Would I buy stock in these numbers? I’m not sure, but the fact that this sample’s party ID hasn’t gyrated as wildly as SUSA’s VA-05 polls leaves me more trusting of this poll.

California has undergone many dramatic changes politically as well as demographically over the years. In the dawning decades of the 20th century, California consistently voted more Republican than the country as a whole thanks to the Republicans being the liberals and the Democrats the conservatives. During the Depression and World War II, California filled up with Okies and Arkies that pushed it sharply to being more Democratic than the country. After the war, and many more newcomers later, California voted about the same as the country most of the time until 1992. President Clinton’s focusing more on the state, especially after the Northridge earthquake in early ’94, gradually brought California into consistently voting more Democratic than the country.

Here are California’s PVI’s, beginning with 1920: R+5.4; 1924: R+15.8; 1928: R+14.4; 1932: R+2.4; 1936: D+3.6; 1940: D+4.3; 1944: D+3.1; 1948: D+0.4; 1952: R+2.0; 1956: D+0.1; 1960: D+0.9; 1964: R+1.3; 1968: R+1.7; 1972: D+1.8; 1976: D+1.4; 1980: R+3.1; 1984: R+1.6; 1988: D+1.5; 1992: D+3.6; 1996: D+3.8; 2000: D+4.2; 2004: D+6.1; 2008: D+7.4.

Kerry won by 10% and carried a minority, 22 of 58, of California’s counties (Alameda, Alpine, Contra Costa, Humboldt, Imperial, Lake, Los Angeles, Marin, Mendocino, Mono, Monterey, Napa, Sacramento, San Benito, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Barbara, Santa Clara, Santa Cruz, Solano, Sonoma, Yolo).

Obama won by 24% and won a majority 34 counties, carrying all 22 Kerry counties and adding 12 more: Butte (plurality), Fresno (plurality), Merced, Nevada, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, San Joaquin, San Luis Obispo, Stanislaus (plurality), Trinity, Ventura. Obama broke some longtime Republican voting streaks in these counties. Here is the last time the new Obama-majority counties voted majority-Democratic.

San Diego – 1944

Nevada – 1964

Riverside – 1964

San Bernardino – 1964

San Joaquin – 1964

San Luis Obispo – 1964

Ventura – 1964

Merced – 1976

Trinity – 1976

Obama improved on Kerry in all 58 counties, though less so in the ultra-Democratic Bay Area counties (Alameda, Marin, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Cruz). These less-than-dramatic improvements do not suggest the region is trending Republican; looking at their numbers (70-80% Democratic), these counties most likely just maxed out their Democratic numbers. Because I want to see an expanded Democratic playing field to shut out Republicans in as many areas as possible, I am pleased at the growth in Democratic numbers, especially in the Valley and inland Southland because these areas also experienced the fastest growth in population in the past decade.

Back in 2005-6, Arnold and other California Republicans proposed a measure to award electoral votes by congressional district, Maine and Nebraska-style. Going by the 2004 presidential results, Bush would have won 22 of California’s 53 districts, which would have neutralized Democrats’ winning Ohio or Florida. Ironically, this time, had the system been in place, Republicans would have netted only 11 electoral votes.

Here I will include the maps of the counties by PVI in each presidential election from 1920 to 2008. Below the flip are the tables showing the exact PVI of each county.

Dark Blue = D+20 and up

Blue = D+15-19

Medium-Light Blue = D+10-14

Light Blue = D+5-9

Very Light Blue = D+0-4

White = EVEN

Very Light Red = R+0-4

Light Red = R+5-9

Medium-light red = R+10-14

Red = R+15-19

Dark Red = R+20 and up

1920: http://i56.tinypic.com/mh85dh.gif

1924: http://i55.tinypic.com/205a0wm…

1928: http://i52.tinypic.com/6qia6t.gif

1932: http://i52.tinypic.com/e7hvkp.gif

1936: http://i52.tinypic.com/2e4f1vt…

1940: http://i51.tinypic.com/10d5gmg…

1944: http://i51.tinypic.com/xd5wk1.gif

1948: http://i55.tinypic.com/34i0cuu…

1952: http://i54.tinypic.com/72wuwl.gif

1956: http://i54.tinypic.com/2aeq992…

1960: http://i51.tinypic.com/169fgr6…

1964: http://i55.tinypic.com/34qmvpt…

1968: http://i51.tinypic.com/5o8hu0.gif

1972: http://i56.tinypic.com/ztuosi.gif

1976: http://i51.tinypic.com/b5r31e.gif

1980: http://i53.tinypic.com/2n18569…

1984: http://i56.tinypic.com/jzckcl.gif

1988: http://i56.tinypic.com/ruo09v.gif

1992: http://i53.tinypic.com/14szck7…

1996: http://i53.tinypic.com/2gsn861…

2000: http://i53.tinypic.com/24whh5i…

2004: http://i55.tinypic.com/28rf5lk…

2008: http://i55.tinypic.com/v46ixu.gif

	1920	1924	1928	1932	1936	1940	1944	1948	1952	1956
*California	R+5.4	R+15.8	R+14.4	R+2.4	D+3.6	D+4.3	D+3.1	D+0.4	R+2.0	D+0.1
Alameda	R+9.6	R+19.7	R+16.6	R+6.0	R+1.4	D+1.4	D+2.6	D+1.2	D+0.3	D+3.8
Alpine	R+25.8	R+26.8	R+30.7	R+21.6	R+8.4	R+15.4	R+22.1	R+27.8	R+33.0	R+27.3
Amador	D+1.9	R+4.1	D+5.1	D+14.8	D+14.5	D+12.8	D+10.2	D+8.0	D+4.9	D+5.5
Butte	R+1.5	R+9.3	R+7.3	D+3.6	D+7.4	D+4.4	D+1.5	R+2.6	R+6.3	R+4.7
Calaveras	R+0.6	R+6.5	R+1.3	D+7.6	D+10.3	D+7.1	D+3.6	D+0.9	R+3.9	R+3.6
Colusa	D+7.1	R+2.4	R+1.1	D+7.3	D+10.7	D+7.0	D+4.1	D+1.8	R+2.1	R+0.0
Contra Costa	R+4.2	R+16.1	R+13.1	R+0.1	D+6.3	D+9.0	D+8.9	D+7.8	D+5.4	D+6.1
Del Norte	R+3.7	R+10.2	R+6.8	D+5.4	D+3.0	R+5.8	R+9.2	R+9.1	R+9.0	R+2.2
El Dorado	D+2.6	R+5.2	D+4.5	D+15.5	D+15.5	D+13.2	D+9.4	D+4.4	R+1.7	R+0.9
Fresno	D+3.4	R+4.3	R+4.1	D+8.7	D+15.0	D+15.6	D+12.7	D+9.6	D+7.4	D+10.2
Glenn	D+0.7	R+9.3	R+10.6	D+0.8	D+6.4	D+2.6	R+1.4	R+4.0	R+7.0	R+1.8
Humboldt	R+12.5	R+19.2	R+18.0	R+7.6	R+0.9	D+1.4	D+2.4	D+0.7	R+3.5	R+0.1
Imperial	R+1.4	R+11.4	R+13.3	D+0.5	D+4.8	R+1.6	R+4.9	R+7.1	R+6.7	R+2.8
Inyo	D+0.9	R+6.7	R+6.6	D+4.5	D+4.6	D+0.4	R+2.2	R+7.5	R+12.1	R+11.2
Kern	D+10.8	D+1.1	R+6.2	D+5.1	D+13.8	D+10.2	D+4.7	D+3.6	D+2.5	D+3.1
Kings	D+2.6	R+3.1	D+0.1	D+9.8	D+13.3	D+13.3	D+12.4	D+10.5	D+7.6	D+10.6
Lake	D+4.1	R+4.9	R+8.8	R+1.2	R+3.4	R+10.4	R+8.9	R+10.9	R+12.8	R+10.0
Lassen	D+0.6	R+8.6	R+4.0	D+7.6	D+15.5	D+16.2	D+13.4	D+12.4	D+12.1	D+13.4
Los Angeles	R+9.1	R+18.5	R+18.5	R+5.8	D+3.0	D+4.7	D+3.6	D+0.6	R+1.7	D+0.4
Madera	D+5.0	R+4.5	R+4.3	D+8.9	D+14.5	D+14.0	D+9.8	D+7.1	D+6.7	D+10.4
Marin	R+8.6	R+18.4	R+11.9	D+0.9	D+2.3	R+0.2	R+2.9	R+6.9	R+12.3	R+10.4
Mariposa	D+8.0	D+0.8	D+0.5	D+7.5	D+12.5	D+11.6	D+5.9	R+4.5	R+11.0	R+7.0
Mendocino	R+5.0	R+12.3	R+11.5	R+0.7	D+2.8	D+1.6	D+1.0	R+2.8	R+5.9	R+2.7
Merced	R+0.9	R+11.8	R+10.2	D+4.9	D+11.8	D+9.9	D+6.5	D+4.4	D+2.9	D+6.7
Modoc	D+4.3	R+1.0	D+0.4	D+7.1	D+7.6	D+4.9	D+3.8	D+0.2	R+3.3	R+1.0
Mono	R+4.7	R+12.4	R+9.0	D+0.8	D+4.6	D+0.7	R+8.2	R+17.5	R+21.0	R+19.0
Monterey	R+4.5	R+14.2	R+11.9	R+2.5	R+0.4	R+0.0	D+0.4	R+2.3	R+6.1	R+4.7
Napa	R+9.6	R+15.4	R+9.1	D+1.9	D+0.8	R+1.5	R+1.6	R+4.4	R+6.8	R+2.4
Nevada	D+0.3	R+13.7	R+5.9	D+6.4	D+8.5	D+11.1	D+6.7	R+0.5	R+5.8	R+5.7
Orange	R+14.2	R+19.0	R+22.3	R+14.6	R+7.2	R+8.8	R+11.1	R+13.0	R+15.2	R+12.5
Placer	D+5.3	R+10.4	R+5.4	D+11.6	D+14.6	D+14.2	D+11.3	D+9.1	D+6.7	D+8.1
Plumas	D+0.8	R+8.9	D+0.8	D+15.3	D+18.0	D+17.7	D+17.1	D+14.6	D+12.3	D+13.6
Riverside	R+13.2	R+17.7	R+21.3	R+15.8	R+11.8	R+9.6	R+7.6	R+9.3	R+10.3	R+7.5
Sacramento	D+0.6	R+12.5	R+6.4	D+9.9	D+14.7	D+15.5	D+13.4	D+10.6	D+7.2	D+9.4
San Benito	R+1.2	R+9.8	R+7.5	D+2.4	D+2.8	R+2.1	R+5.7	R+8.1	R+9.7	R+6.0
San Bernardino	R+6.4	R+12.9	R+18.7	R+11.5	R+4.1	R+0.9	R+0.3	R+1.8	R+2.6	R+0.8
San Diego	R+4.0	R+14.8	R+16.1	R+5.9	R+0.4	D+1.6	D+0.9	R+1.3	R+5.8	R+7.7
San Francisco	R+3.6	R+16.9	R+7.0	D+8.6	D+10.3	D+8.9	D+6.2	D+2.9	D+0.4	D+4.0
San Joaquin	D+3.3	R+9.0	R+10.0	D+2.1	D+9.4	D+4.9	R+1.5	R+2.3	R+2.1	D+1.2
San Luis Obispo	R+2.2	R+13.4	R+10.9	D+3.7	D+5.1	R+0.6	R+1.9	R+5.6	R+9.4	R+5.7
San Mateo	R+10.1	R+20.5	R+13.4	R+0.6	D+1.8	D+1.0	R+2.6	R+7.1	R+9.8	R+5.9
Santa Barbara	R+3.4	R+15.6	R+16.8	R+5.2	D+0.3	R+0.2	R+0.1	R+6.5	R+12.4	R+9.6
Santa Clara	R+8.4	R+17.4	R+14.5	R+6.9	R+5.8	R+4.1	R+2.9	R+4.7	R+6.4	R+3.1
Santa Cruz	R+4.6	R+15.5	R+16.1	R+5.8	R+5.4	R+8.1	R+7.4	R+10.7	R+12.9	R+9.2
Shasta	D+1.7	R+7.4	R+2.9	D+10.8	D+12.2	D+11.1	D+9.6	D+5.9	D+2.6	D+6.2
Sierra	R+0.9	R+13.1	R+3.6	D+10.4	D+14.4	D+13.6	D+9.3	D+4.3	D+1.9	D+4.2
Siskiyou	D+4.4	R+8.8	R+6.5	D+7.8	D+10.4	D+8.2	D+6.3	D+3.7	D+1.4	D+3.5
Solano	D+1.6	R+12.4	R+6.1	D+7.8	D+13.1	D+16.3	D+16.3	D+14.7	D+12.9	D+14.4
Sonoma	R+6.7	R+13.6	R+10.3	D+1.3	D+1.1	R+4.6	R+5.9	R+7.3	R+10.9	R+7.8
Stanislaus	R+1.0	R+13.1	R+14.8	R+3.3	D+2.1	R+0.4	R+2.0	R+2.2	R+1.7	D+4.1
Sutter	R+3.2	R+13.5	R+6.0	D+9.2	D+11.5	D+5.7	R+0.7	R+5.1	R+9.2	R+8.8
Tehama	D+1.0	R+10.2	R+11.6	R+1.9	D+1.5	R+0.6	R+0.7	R+3.8	R+7.6	R+2.8
Trinity	D+2.3	R+4.0	D+2.3	D+13.2	D+12.2	D+7.9	D+6.8	D+1.7	R+1.4	D+2.4
Tulare	R+0.8	R+4.9	R+7.0	D+0.6	D+6.5	D+4.0	R+0.9	R+2.1	R+1.4	D+1.5
Tuolumne	D+3.1	R+7.7	R+5.1	D+6.2	D+10.3	D+9.9	D+6.5	D+0.5	R+3.7	D+0.6
Ventura	R+13.1	R+18.6	R+16.5	R+5.0	D+1.7	D+1.9	D+4.2	D+5.0	D+3.4	D+5.2
Yolo	D+1.2	R+6.0	R+4.5	D+6.0	D+8.9	D+5.8	D+4.3	D+3.2	D+2.0	D+5.7
Yuba	R+2.8	R+12.8	R+3.3	D+11.0	D+13.4	D+11.7	D+7.2	D+1.6	R+3.1	R+1.8

	1960	1964	1968	1972	1976	1980	1984	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008
*California	D+0.9	R+1.3	R+1.7	D+1.8	D+1.4	R+3.1	R+1.6	D+1.5	D+3.6	D+3.8	D+4.2	D+6.1	D+7.4
Alameda	D+4.7	D+4.7	D+7.2	D+13.7	D+13.6	D+10.3	D+15.0	D+19.1	D+20.7	D+20.6	D+21.6	D+25.8	D+27.1
Alpine	R+24.4	R+22.9	R+16.5	R+8.7	R+4.4	R+7.9	R+4.4	R+0.8	R+3.7	R+4.8	R+3.5	D+2.0	D+7.4
Amador	D+6.8	D+5.4	D+3.9	D+3.7	D+3.1	R+3.2	R+5.5	R+3.2	R+3.7	R+6.5	R+9.4	R+10.9	R+11.4
Butte	R+4.5	R+8.9	R+11.3	R+6.1	R+2.1	R+8.0	R+7.9	R+4.0	R+2.9	R+6.7	R+10.1	R+6.6	R+3.1
Calaveras	R+1.7	R+3.0	R+5.7	R+5.5	R+2.2	R+6.3	R+8.5	R+4.7	R+3.5	R+6.9	R+10.2	R+10.5	R+10.6
Colusa	D+1.4	R+1.2	R+3.1	R+1.9	R+1.6	R+7.0	R+8.1	R+6.8	R+9.5	R+13.5	R+16.1	R+17.3	R+14.9
Contra Costa	D+4.8	D+2.6	D+1.8	D+3.9	D+2.4	R+1.8	D+1.1	D+4.9	D+7.7	D+8.2	D+8.8	D+12.7	D+14.9
Del Norte	D+3.0	D+2.0	D+0.6	D+1.5	D+3.0	R+3.0	R+4.2	D+1.3	D+1.9	R+2.1	R+7.2	R+8.1	R+6.9
El Dorado	D+2.2	R+0.3	R+2.9	D+0.1	D+2.3	R+5.8	R+8.9	R+6.5	R+7.5	R+11.1	R+12.7	R+11.4	R+10.0
Fresno	D+9.9	D+4.9	D+3.4	D+6.1	D+4.7	R+0.4	D+1.9	D+3.8	D+0.4	R+4.2	R+5.7	R+6.1	R+4.7
Glenn	D+1.1	R+5.4	R+8.9	R+5.9	R+3.1	R+10.2	R+13.5	R+10.4	R+10.7	R+15.5	R+19.4	R+18.4	R+15.8
Humboldt	D+4.0	D+4.0	D+2.6	D+5.2	D+8.0	D+1.2	D+1.8	D+9.4	D+9.9	D+4.2	D+1.1	D+6.2	D+10.9
Imperial	R+1.2	R+6.7	R+9.1	R+5.5	R+2.1	R+3.5	R+4.2	R+2.7	R+1.0	D+2.6	D+5.2	D+4.7	D+7.0
Inyo	R+6.8	R+6.4	R+9.3	R+9.9	R+9.9	R+13.4	R+14.1	R+11.9	R+11.4	R+13.1	R+14.6	R+11.7	R+8.7
Kern	D+2.8	R+1.7	R+2.2	R+1.6	R+2.9	R+6.6	R+7.6	R+7.4	R+9.5	R+12.5	R+13.6	R+14.4	R+14.3
Kings	D+11.4	D+7.7	D+5.6	D+2.8	D+0.5	R+2.7	R+4.6	R+4.3	R+4.1	R+6.1	R+8.6	R+12.4	R+12.8
Lake	R+8.2	R+7.0	R+4.3	D+0.1	D+3.4	R+0.9	R+0.6	D+4.3	D+6.4	D+5.7	D+4.3	D+5.2	D+5.9
Lassen	D+12.3	D+6.9	D+4.1	D+6.0	D+6.5	R+0.1	R+4.0	R+4.5	R+6.3	R+11.2	R+18.2	R+20.7	R+21.0
Los Angeles	D+1.3	R+1.8	R+2.2	D+2.4	D+2.6	R+0.2	D+1.9	D+5.2	D+8.7	D+11.0	D+13.5	D+15.6	D+16.0
Madera	D+11.7	D+7.2	D+4.8	D+5.3	D+4.6	R+0.4	R+2.0	R+1.6	R+4.8	R+11.1	R+14.0	R+13.7	R+12.0
Marin	R+8.0	R+3.5	R+1.2	D+2.8	D+1.2	R+3.4	D+4.4	D+11.5	D+15.8	D+15.3	D+15.9	D+22.3	D+25.6
Mariposa	R+3.6	R+4.2	R+4.6	R+1.2	D+1.5	R+3.4	R+5.0	R+2.5	R+2.5	R+7.8	R+12.7	R+11.7	R+10.2
Mendocino	D+0.5	D+2.2	D+1.6	D+3.5	D+4.4	D+1.4	D+3.9	D+8.4	D+13.6	D+11.0	D+6.5	D+11.9	D+17.5
Merced	D+9.0	D+6.9	D+6.7	D+5.8	D+3.8	D+2.0	D+0.9	D+0.8	D+0.7	R+2.1	R+3.7	R+4.9	R+2.7
Modoc	D+1.1	R+2.4	R+4.9	R+3.7	R+2.0	R+9.7	R+13.9	R+11.0	R+9.2	R+12.8	R+21.7	R+24.3	R+22.8
Mono	R+16.5	R+17.1	R+18.9	R+14.0	R+9.8	R+13.9	R+15.1	R+11.6	R+6.9	R+6.9	R+7.8	R+2.6	D+2.2
Monterey	R+4.2	R+2.9	R+1.7	R+0.6	R+0.5	R+5.2	R+2.6	D+2.4	D+5.0	D+5.5	D+7.4	D+11.4	D+14.1
Napa	R+0.7	R+0.7	D+1.4	D+0.7	R+2.3	R+5.3	R+2.7	D+1.7	D+5.1	D+5.5	D+5.6	D+9.5	D+12.3
Nevada	R+3.1	R+4.4	R+5.6	R+1.5	D+0.8	R+6.6	R+8.0	R+4.8	R+5.6	R+9.9	R+11.6	R+6.4	R+2.0
Orange	R+10.4	R+14.2	R+17.4	R+13.7	R+12.4	R+17.3	R+18.0	R+15.5	R+13.1	R+12.0	R+10.4	R+8.8	R+7.1
Placer	D+8.8	D+5.3	D+4.1	D+6.5	D+6.0	R+2.0	R+5.8	R+5.8	R+7.7	R+11.2	R+13.0	R+12.3	R+10.8
Plumas	D+14.0	D+10.7	D+9.0	D+10.8	D+8.0	R+0.2	R+1.1	D+1.7	R+0.3	R+7.7	R+13.9	R+13.2	R+10.6
Riverside	R+5.6	R+5.5	R+5.9	R+2.8	D+0.1	R+5.8	R+7.6	R+5.6	R+4.3	R+4.3	R+4.9	R+5.5	R+4.9
Sacramento	D+9.5	D+5.5	D+4.9	D+8.3	D+7.0	D+2.0	D+2.0	D+2.5	D+2.0	D+1.0	D+1.1	D+1.6	D+3.7
San Benito	R+1.8	R+1.1	R+0.8	D+0.2	R+1.0	R+3.7	R+3.3	R+1.8	D+1.0	D+2.5	D+4.1	D+5.3	D+6.1
San Bernardino	R+0.8	R+3.3	R+4.7	R+3.1	R+1.4	R+5.9	R+8.2	R+6.7	R+4.7	R+3.4	R+2.7	R+2.9	R+2.6
San Diego	R+6.8	R+9.2	R+11.1	R+6.5	R+5.4	R+11.0	R+10.4	R+7.1	R+4.8	R+4.0	R+4.0	R+2.1	R+0.2
San Francisco	D+7.0	D+9.0	D+12.1	D+16.6	D+12.2	D+11.4	D+22.4	D+27.4	D+27.2	D+27.1	D+29.8	D+34.0	D+34.1
San Joaquin	D+0.0	R+1.3	R+1.0	D+0.5	D+0.8	R+3.7	R+3.4	R+1.1	R+1.2	R+2.6	R+2.4	R+1.7	R+0.4
San Luis Obispo	R+2.7	R+3.0	R+3.1	R+0.4	D+0.1	R+6.9	R+7.7	R+4.1	R+1.9	R+4.7	R+7.4	R+4.4	R+1.7
San Mateo	R+2.7	D+0.6	D+2.7	D+4.5	D+1.1	R+3.1	D+2.4	D+8.5	D+11.7	D+12.9	D+15.0	D+19.4	D+21.4
Santa Barbara	R+7.1	R+6.2	R+6.0	R+1.0	D+0.6	R+5.7	R+6.1	R+2.7	D+0.1	R+0.5	R+0.9	D+2.8	D+6.6
Santa Clara	R+2.2	R+0.5	D+1.9	D+5.2	D+3.1	R+2.4	D+0.5	D+4.8	D+8.0	D+9.6	D+11.3	D+14.8	D+16.7
Santa Cruz	R+8.0	R+6.3	R+3.8	D+2.5	D+6.6	D+2.5	D+7.5	D+14.9	D+17.9	D+16.1	D+16.0	D+22.4	D+25.9
Shasta	D+12.2	D+8.5	D+5.9	D+9.1	D+7.1	R+3.7	R+6.4	R+5.3	R+8.3	R+13.7	R+17.9	R+17.8	R+16.9
Sierra	D+4.9	D+4.1	D+3.2	D+6.9	D+8.6	D+1.4	R+0.1	D+1.5	R+1.5	R+10.0	R+17.0	R+16.7	R+14.6
Siskiyou	D+7.2	D+4.6	D+1.3	D+3.9	D+3.3	R+4.0	R+3.7	D+0.7	D+1.9	R+4.0	R+13.0	R+13.3	R+9.7
Solano	D+12.5	D+8.6	D+9.7	D+8.5	D+5.6	D+1.8	D+1.2	D+4.9	D+7.4	D+7.7	D+7.8	D+9.0	D+9.9
Sonoma	R+4.3	R+2.1	R+1.3	D+1.1	D+1.9	R+1.5	D+2.8	D+9.4	D+13.3	D+12.9	D+12.6	D+17.2	D+20.7
Stanislaus	D+4.5	D+2.4	D+3.4	D+5.3	D+5.8	D+1.4	R+0.3	R+0.2	R+0.3	R+2.5	R+4.4	R+6.3	R+5.4
Sutter	R+9.4	R+13.1	R+13.9	R+9.2	R+5.2	R+10.6	R+13.8	R+13.8	R+15.0	R+16.5	R+17.5	R+17.1	R+14.4
Tehama	D+1.7	R+0.6	R+1.9	D+2.5	D+5.1	R+3.9	R+7.5	R+4.3	R+3.5	R+8.2	R+15.3	R+16.8	R+16.2
Trinity	D+9.2	D+6.8	D+1.3	D+4.4	D+4.7	R+3.6	R+5.4	R+2.5	R+2.5	R+5.3	R+10.9	R+9.3	R+3.1
Tulare	D+0.4	R+2.8	R+3.9	R+3.5	R+3.6	R+6.7	R+6.1	R+5.9	R+8.2	R+11.7	R+12.9	R+14.0	R+13.5
Tuolumne	D+3.0	D+1.3	R+0.1	D+1.7	D+3.1	R+3.0	R+3.2	R+0.5	R+1.3	R+5.0	R+8.6	R+9.2	R+9.9
Ventura	D+3.9	R+1.2	R+3.8	R+4.6	R+4.9	R+8.8	R+11.1	R+9.4	R+5.4	R+3.4	R+2.6	R+0.7	D+1.0
Yolo	D+7.3	D+6.6	D+8.7	D+13.9	D+11.9	D+6.4	D+9.2	D+11.1	D+11.8	D+10.5	D+9.1	D+10.4	D+13.3
Yuba	R+0.2	R+2.9	R+3.9	R+1.2	D+2.4	R+1.8	R+6.0	R+6.9	R+8.8	R+11.0	R+13.5	R+15.5	R+14.0