Month: July 2010

Here is the first of a multi-part series on how the demographic changes in California’s counties had an impact on the counties and the state overall. I unfortunately couldn’t find any info on race or ethnicity from the Census Bureau before 2000, so I will just be sticking with population increase/decrease, showing how the population of each county changed, and their share of the state at each census.

For the first leg of our journey, we will stop by the San Francisco Bay Area, long a very influential area in California politics. In the first few decades of the 20th century, the Bay Area was the dominant political force in California, and also a bastion of progressive Republicanism. From 1900 to 1928, the Republican presidential candidate always won California in a landslide except 1912 (thanks to the progressive-conservative split in the GOP that resulted in a TR win) and 1916 (in which an unintended snub of Governor Hiram Johnson by Charles Evans Hughes probably cost him the state and the presidency). In the Depression and War years, these counties shifted Democratic, allowing FDR to win 4 times.

The counties moderated right after the war and in the Eisenhower years and started shifting leftward after that. For example, 1956 was the last presidential election in which the core counties of the Bay Area, San Francisco and Alameda (Oakland), voted Republican. The rest of the counties were mostly suburban and stayed Republican though they were trending Democratic also. And though the Bay Area was still a significant population center in the state and was trending Democratic, the rapid growth further south kept California a Republican-voting state from 1952 to 1988 save the LBJ landslide in 1964. The counties would continue their Democratic trend to the present day, though had the Southland not trended Democratic also, California would probably not be the strongly Democratic state it is today. It would be more Democratic than Republican, but far from in the bag for Democrats.

Alameda

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	344,177	39.8%	10.04%	R+9.6
1930	474,883	38.0%	8.36%	R+6.0
1940	513,011	8.0%	7.43%	D+1.4
1950	740,315	44.3%	6.99%	D+0.3
1960	908,209	22.7%	5.78%	D+4.7
1970	1,073,184	18.2%	5.38%	D+13.7
1980	1,105,379	3.0%	4.67%	D+10.3
1990	1,279,182	15.7%	4.30%	D+20.7
2000	1,443,741	12.9%	4.26%	D+21.6
2008*	1,474,368	2.1%	4.03%	D+27.1

Contra Costa

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	53,889	70.1%	1.57%	R+4.2
1930	78,608	45.9%	1.38%	R+0.1
1940	100,450	27.8%	1.45%	D+9.0
1950	298,984	197.6%	2.82%	D+5.4
1960	409,030	36.8%	2.60%	D+4.8
1970	556,116	36.0%	2.80%	D+3.9
1980	656,331	18.0%	2.77%	R+1.8
1990	803,732	22.5%	2.70%	D+7.7
2000	948,816	18.1%	2.80%	D+8.8
2008*	1,029,703	8.5%	2.77%	D+14.9

Marin

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	27,342	8.9%	0.80%	R+8.6
1930	41,648	52.3%	0.73%	D+0.9
1940	52,907	27.0%	0.77%	R+0.2
1950	85,619	61.8%	0.81%	R+12.3
1960	146,820	71.5%	0.93%	R+8.0
1970	208,652	42.1%	1.05%	R+2.8
1980	222,592	6.7%	0.94%	R+3.4
1990	230,096	3.4%	0.77%	D+15.8
2000	247,289	7.5%	0.73%	D+15.9
2008*	248,794	0.6%	0.68%	D+25.6

Napa

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	20,678	4.4%	0.60%	R+9.6
1930	22,897	10.7%	0.40%	D+1.9
1940	28,503	24.5%	0.41%	R+1.5
1950	46,603	63.5%	0.44%	R+6.8
1960	65,890	41.4%	0.42%	R+0.7
1970	79,140	20.1%	0.40%	D+0.7
1980	99,199	25.3%	0.42%	R+5.3
1990	110,765	11.7%	0.37%	D+5.1
2000	124,279	12.2%	0.37%	D+5.6
2008*	133,433	7.4%	0.36%	D+12.3

San Francisco

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	506,676	21.5%	14.79%	D+3.6
1930	634,394	25.2%	11.17%	D+8.6
1940	634,536	0.0%	9.19%	D+8.9
1950	775,357	22.2%	7.32%	D+0.4
1960	740,316	-4.5%	4.71%	D+7.0
1970	715,674	-3.3%	3.59%	D+16.6
1980	678,974	-5.1%	2.87%	D+11.4
1990	723,959	6.6%	2.43%	D+27.2
2000	776,733	7.3%	2.29%	D+29.8
2008*	808,976	4.2%	2.21%	D+34.1

San Mateo

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	36,781	38.4%	1.07%	R+10.1
1930	77,405	110.4%	1.36%	R+0.6
1940	111,782	44.4%	1.62%	D+1.0
1950	235,659	110.8%	2.23%	R+9.8
1960	444,387	88.6%	2.83%	R+2.7
1970	557,361	25.4%	2.79%	D+4.5
1980	587,329	5.4%	2.48%	R+3.1
1990	649,623	10.6%	2.18%	D+11.7
2000	707,161	8.9%	2.09%	D+15.0
2008*	712,690	0.8%	1.95%	D+21.4

Santa Clara

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	100,676	20.5%	2.94%	R+8.4
1930	145,118	44.1%	2.56%	R+6.9
1940	174,949	20.6%	2.53%	R+4.1
1950	290,547	66.1%	2.74%	R+6.4
1960	642,315	121.1%	4.09%	R+2.2
1970	1,065,313	65.9%	5.34%	D+5.2
1980	1,295,071	21.6%	5.47%	D+2.4
1990	1,497,577	15.6%	5.03%	D+8.0
2000	1,682,585	12.4%	4.97%	D+11.3
2008*	1,764,499	4.9%	4.82%	D+16.7

Solano

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	40,602	47.3%	1.18%	D+1.6
1930	40,834	0.6%	0.72%	D+7.8
1940	49,118	20.3%	0.71%	D+16.3
1950	104,833	113.4%	0.99%	D+12.9
1960	134,597	28.4%	0.86%	D+12.5
1970	171,989	27.8%	0.86%	D+8.5
1980	235,203	36.8%	0.99%	D+1.8
1990	339,471	44.3%	1.14%	D+7.4
2000	394,542	16.2%	1.16%	D+7.8
2008*	407,515	3.3%	1.11%	D+9.9

Sonoma

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	52,090	7.6%	1.52%	R+6.7
1930	62,222	19.5%	1.10%	D+1.3
1940	69,052	11.0%	1.00%	R+4.6
1950	103,405	49.7%	0.98%	R+10.9
1960	147,375	42.5%	0.94%	R+4.3
1970	204,885	39.0%	1.03%	D+1.1
1980	299,681	46.3%	1.27%	R+1.5
1990	388,222	29.5%	1.30%	D+13.3
2000	458,614	18.1%	1.35%	D+12.6
2008*	466,741	1.8%	1.28%	D+20.7

CO-Sen: An unknown group called New Leadership Colorado hired Zata|3 to take a poll of the Dem primary, and survey says that Sen. Michael Bennet has a slim 44-40 lead over upstart Andrew Romanoff. As Colorado Pols points out, even though NLC claims to have no relationship with either campaign, the group’s interests must lie with Romanoff – because no one affiliated with Bennet would want to release a poll that makes him look so vulnerable. Colorado Pols also observes that Zata|3, until this cycle, was not known as a pollster but rather as a firm that does robocalls and direct mail – and wonders why they’ve been tapped to do actual surveys.

FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek is refusing to say whether he’d back gajillionaire asshole Jeff Greene should Greene win the Democratic primary. (According to Politico, Greene has “signaled he would support Meek.”) Politically speaking, if Meek crashes and burns, I wonder if he’d be better off endorsing Charlie Crist. After all, Crist is about a hundred (at least) times more likely to win the general than Greene, and since it seems he’d have to caucus with the Dems, backing him could earn Meek a chit or two down the line.

MO-Sen: A bunch of teabaggers are complaining that Michele Bachmann is coming to town to stump for her House colleague Roy Blunt – and not Chuck Purgason, the state senator who has failed to gain any traction in his primary bid. When Bachmann, the recent founder of the House Tea Party Caucus, isn’t passing purity tests, you know your movement has reached “Judean People’s Front” levels of absurdity.

NH-Sen: UNH, polling for WMUR, has AG Kelly Ayotte beating Dem Rep. Paul Hodes 45-37. That’s actually an improvement for Hodes from April’s 47-32 margin.

CO-Gov: The Denver Post has a helpful look at the American Constitution Party, the right-wing lunatic party whose line Tom Tancredo plans to run on for governor. Among other planks of their platform: repeal of the 17th amendment, repeal of the Endangered Species Act, and repeal of the Voting Rights Act. Sounds like they have a lot in common with the Republicans – they’re both the party of no!

IL-Gov, IL-10: Capitol Fax busts two Republicans for engaging in shady Internet-related shenanigans. First up, someone claiming to be with Bill Brady’s gubernatorial decided to vandalize Brady’s Wikipedia page, turning it into a campaign press release, more or less. Of course, the encyclopedia’s trusty editors quickly reverted these ridiculous edits – which only led to a revision war, as Brady’s stupid minions kept trying to push their nonsense. The page is now locked. As Capitol Fax reiterates, all this shit is permanent. As in, you get to look like an idiot forever.

Meanwhile, in suburban Chicago, GOPer Bob Dold’s campaign doesn’t seem to understand this lesson. He put up an item on his Facebook page the other day saying he supports Rep. Paul Ryan’s “Roadmap for America’s Future” – you know, the economic “plan” which calls for destroying Medicare and Social Security, among other things. After Dan Seals lacerated Dold’s punk ass for this, Dold took the post down. But the enterprising ArchPundit was smart enough to grab a screen capture while the post was still live. Explaining the deletion, a Dold hack said, “It’s Facebook. We put things up and take things down all the time.” Um, no – you don’t actually get to do that. Trust me on this one – I’m from the Internet.

TN-Gov: Dem gubernatorial candidate Mike McWherter is up on the air with his first ad, a positive bio-ish spot. NWOTSOTB, of course.

NC-07: Barf: Kelsey Grammer, that rare breed of Hollywood Republican, is coming to North Carolina to do fundraisers for GOPer Ilario Pantano, who is running against Rep. Mike McIntyre. Pantano, as you probably know, is best known for emptying two magazines from his M-16 into two Iraqi prisoners, killing them both, because he wanted to “send a message.”

NY-15: We’ll probably stop following this whip count soon, but anyhow, freshman Dem Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick is now the third House incumbent to call on Charlie Rangel to resign. If the floodgates do open up on this, any latecomers to the bandwagon will see diminishing returns on their calls for resignation.

PA-06: Yesterday, we mentioned a Jim Gerlach internal which had him up 54-29 over Manan Trivedi. Well, the team down at the SSP Records & Storage went dumpster diving through our deep archive to dig up an old Gerlach internal from September of 2008. That survey showed him up 57-28 over Some Dude Bob Roggio. (SSPR&S believes that this might have actually been the very first “Some Dude” reference on SSP.) You will recall that Gerlach beat Roggio by just 52-48.

TN-06: That’s interesting: Veteran Brett Carter launched a TV ad touting his military experience. Then veteran Ben Leming launched a TV ad, touting his military experience. What’s interesting is that both of these guys are running in the Democratic primary – in a seat largely written off by national Dems. NWOTSOTB for either candidate, but both men have limited cash-on-hand (Carter $100K, Leming $35K).

DNC: The DNC just transferred $2.5 million to a number of sister organizations, including the DSCC, DCCC and three marquee gubernatorial campaigns (FL, MD and PA). Click the link for the complete breakdowns.

This is Basil Marceaux. Basil Marceaux is running for governor of Tennessee. But I’d rather let Basil Marceaux introduce himself in his own words:

On his informative website, Basil Marceaux makes a very serious campaign promise:

VOTE FOR ME AND IF I WIN I WILL IMMUNE YOU FROM ALL STATE CRIMES FOR THE REST OF YOU LIFE!

Now, I’m bringing this up because of another candidate you might recall, Lee Mercer. Lee Mercer ran for president in 2008, and point 49 of his stirring 70-point platform included this stirring pledge:

To Prove the United States Government killed my sex life, my wife sex life, my daughter-in -laws sex life both may sons and other of my family members sex life with Espionage Experimentation and Espionage Exploitation sex killing.

So the question is, if you vote for him, can Basil Marceaux IMMUNE YOU from Espionage Experimentation and Espionage Exploitation sex killing?

The answer, sadly, is no. Espionage Experimentation and Espionage Exploitation sex killing is clearly a federal crime. Sorry! Better luck next time.

Braun Research for cn|2 (7/26-27, likely voters, no trend lines):

Ben Chandler (D-inc): 46

Andy Barr (R): 32

Undecided: 21

(MoE: ±4.4%)

This is the second poll we’ve seen of the race between Democrat Ben Chandler and Lexington attorney Andy Barr. Back in June, the Barr campaign released their own poll conducted by the Tarrance Group showing Chandler in the lead by 45-38. For their part, Chandler’s campaign isn’t releasing any of their own polling, but told Roll Call that they had a “strong double-digit lead” in June.

The warning sign for Chandler here is his standing under the 50% line given the fact that it’s unlikely that the name “Andy Barr” is seared into the memory of many area residents. Chandler has a real race on his hands, but he should be able to retain his advantage if he stays on his toes. One telling statistic is that voters side with Chandler over Barr on the issue of government spending by a 45-41 margin — that’s not the greatest spread, but certainly an indication of some residual trust that Chandler’s built up in a fairly conservative district.

It’s time for the third edition in our weekly roundup of news from the Democratic campaigns for the New York State Senate.  This week we’ve got a bevy of endorsements from the Women’s Campaign Forum, HRC and more.  

As always, if you see that we missed something, please include links to more news on New York State Senate campaigns in the comments.  If you Tweet about any campaigns, please consider using the #NYSen10 hashtag.  You can find all our challengers on Act Blue at the Change Albany Now page.  If you’d like to follow these roundups on a daily basis, visit our blog or subscribe to our RSS feed.  –Mike

DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES

New York state is a finalist for up to $700 million in federal education funds as part of the Race To The Top competition. This is a direct result of the Senate Democratic majority pushing through major legislation in recent months that allow test scores to be used in teacher evaluations and that raise the number of charter schools in the state to 460 from 200.

The Women’s Campaign Forum has endorsed four Democratic candidates: Didi Barrett, Regina Calcaterra, Mary Wilmot, and Robin Wilt. The WCF is dedicated to advancing the political participation and leadership of women who support reproductive health choices for all. WCF, founded in 1974, is a non-partisan national network dedicated to achieving parity for women in public office.

The Human Rights Campaign New York endorsed numerous Democratic challengers and incumbents who are all supporters of marriage equality and whose election will “put New York on a path to fairness and equality for same-sex couples in the state.” They endorsed incumbent Senators Brian Foley, Craig Johnson, Tom Duane, and Dave Valesky — and Democratic candidates Dave Mejias, Tony Avella, and Regina Calcaterra. Not a single Republican was endorsed by the group.

Tony Avella, running against 38-year Republican incumbent Frank Padavan, was endorsed by a massive retail union . The Retail, Wholesale and Department Store Union, which represents 100,000 workers across the United States and Canada, gave Avella the nod, calling him “an independent voice for working New Yorkers and taxpayers.” “He’s exactly the kind of reformer we desperately need in Albany right now,” said Stuart Applebaum, the union’s president.

Democratic Candidate Mike Kaplowitz proposed massive pension reform, advocating for the elimination of overtime for calculating a public employee’s pension and called for creating a pension plan for new public employees that would be similar to a 401K plan. Both measures, he said, could save taxpayers an estimated $2.2 billion over the next three years. “The costs of public pensions are killing New York State taxpayers,” he said. By 2013, Kaplowitz said, public employee pensions will cost taxpayers $6.8 billion — up from $2.4 billion in 2009.

Kaplowitz was also profiled by Jimmy Vielkind on The Albany-Times Union’s Capitol Confidential blog. In the piece, Kaplowitz spoke about how the GOP primary schism in the district is sure to play to his advantage. “There’s no question that the schism between the two of them will benefit me, because there are a lot of rank and file Republicans very angry with and very unhappy with the shenanigans of Assemblyman Greg Ball,” Kaplowitz said. Those shenanigans include an allegation that Ball denies that he groped a woman at an Albany bar, sleeps with a gun under his bed and once found a dead goat on his driveway.

Dave Mejias, running against 21-year Republican incumbent Kemp Hannon on Long Island, was interviewed by The Albany Project. Readers were able to send in questions in advance to ask Mejias, a former Nassau County Legislator. Mejias started out making his case quite strongly: “After 34 years in Albany, Kemp Hannon has forgotten who he represents. He works harder for party bosses and political insiders to maintain the status quo than he does for us. Why else would he have blocked ethics reform, voted to raise taxes over 400 times and most recently voted against restoring school aid?”

Democratic Candidate Didi Barrett, running against Republican incumbent Stephen Saland, weighed in on a variety of issues in a wide-ranging interview with The Register-Star. She said “It’s not about upstate or downstate, it’s about New York state. Politics has gotten in the way of progress for New York. We need an era that doesn’t complain and blame, but gets things done.” On balancing the budget, Barrett said that’s “something someone like me brings to the mix. I’m not a politician; I spent a long time in the not-for-profit sector. I learned to stretch a dollar by thinking outside the box. Everything should be on the table as a way to explore the best solutions.”

Democratic Candidate Joanne Yepsen  has continued to fight for the future of Saratoga Race Course. Yepsen and Sen. Eric Adams, head of the state Senate’s racing committee, held a roundtable at Saratoga National Golf Club to discuss the racing industry’s impact on the local economy. Yepsen said all stakeholders – New York Racing Association, New York City Off Track Betting and the Aqueduct racino operator – should be brought together to deal with racing’s future collectively. Several years ago, NYRA had a management contract with MGM to run Aqueduct’s racino, but the state wouldn’t approve it for unexplained reasons. “We’ve got different people running the state now,” Yepsen said.

Sen. Darrel Aubertine said that he is honored to have the endorsement of independent voters throughout his district. “I’m so pleased and honored to have the endorsement of the local independent voters and the Independence Party ballot line this fall,” Sen. Aubertine said. “Working for all of us means working together. I want to thank all nine members of the local Independence Party Committee and all of the local voters who signed petitions for your support and endorsement.” Over the past year, more than 50 pieces of legislation sponsored or co-sponsored by Sen. Aubertine passed the Senate.

REPUBLICANS

Showing just how out of touch he really is, Republican incumbent Stephen Saland attended a $19,000 black-tie dinner  for his re-election campaign that was thrown by a politically connected couple in April at their Rhinebeck, Dutchess County, estate.  The $19,000 dinner was listed as an in-kind donation to Saland’s campaign. That means it was for services rendered for a political function, but not a direct monetary contribution. “There’s a lot of trust with the reporting by the campaigns,” said Dick Dadey, executive director of Citizens Union, a good-government group. “There’s very little if any verification.”

• NH-Sen, NH-Gov (pdf): As PPP’s Tom Jensen hinted yesterday, Kelly Ayotte may have lost some ground in the general election, but isn’t suffering in the GOP primary. Ayotte has a 53/23 favorable among GOPers, and they also say that by a 38/28 margin, a Sarah Palin endorsement makes it more likely that they’d vote for the endorsee. Ayotte is polling at 47%, with Bill Binnie at 14, Ovide Lamontagne at 8, Jim Bender at 6, and a handful of Some Dudes in low single-digits. (Lamontagne’s personal unpopularity seems to be keeping him from catching fire among the right wing; he’s at 23/31.) They also looked at the gubernatorial primary, where establishment frontrunner John Stephen hasn’t quite sealed the deal against teabagging businessman Jack Kimball and social conservative activist Karen Testerman. Stephen leads Kimball and Testerman 26-15-5.

• NY-Sen-B, NY-Gov: Quinnipiac offers up polls of the major races in New York state today, and, try as they may, they just can’t find anything interesting going on here, any more so than any other pollster. The main point of interest may be the GOP primaries; they find Rick Lazio leading Carl Paladino 39-23 in the gubernatorial primary, and Bruce Blakeman leading David Malpass 19-12 in the Senate primary (although Joe DioGuardi, who has submitted his petitions, really should be polled in that race too). In the general, they find Kirsten Gillibrand beating Blakeman 48-27 and Malpass 49-24. Andrew Cuomo defeats Lazio 56-26 and Paladino 55-25.

• WA-Sen: Having been on the receiving end of one of Fred Davis’s abstract-expressionist attack ads, Patty Murray’s out with her own first second TV spot of the election cycle, one that’s relentlessly job-o-centric and focuses on her close links to the region’s largest employer: Boeing. It’s a panorama of Boeing workers thanking her for saving their jobs.

• FL-Gov: Bill McCollum’s trailing in the polls of the GOP primary, but he got a boost from the Florida Chamber of Commerce, which is endorsing him. The Chamber also gave the cash-starved McCollum a $500K transfusion, although it went to McCollum-supporting 527 Florida First Initiative rather than directly to McCollum.

• GA-Gov: Nathan Deal got two presents, one good, one very bad. He got the endorsement for the runoff from fellow House member Jack Kingston, who had previously endorsed fellow Savannah resident Eric Johnson in the GOP primary. However, he also got news that a federal grand jury has issued subpoenas of Georgia’s Revenue Commissioner, in its investigation of whether Deal personally intervened with him to protect a state auto inspection program that was particularly beneficial to the Deal family’s auto salvage business. At least Deal isn’t lagging on the fundraising front; both he and rival Karen Handel have raised about $500K each in the week since the primary.

• MI-Gov: Rumors keep on resurfacing regarding Republican AG Mike Cox’s presence at an out-of-control mayoral mansion party hosted by now-disgraced former Detroit mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, and they’re back in the news again, inconveniently timed for him with the primary next week. An eyewitness has just signed an affidavit placing the religious-right Cox at the stripper-laden party. Meanwhile, Rick Snyder, who’s actively trying to court Dems and indies to cross over to the GOP primary to vote for him, has rolled out an endorsement from a highly respected but long-ago GOP governor: William Milliken.

• MN-Gov: Alliance for a Better Minnesota is out with a new TV ad that’s hitting Republican nominee Tom Emmer on one of his weakest spots (of which it turns out he has many). It criticizes him for voting to weaken drunk driving laws, and oh, just happening to point out that Emmer himself has twice been convicted of drunk driving. (The Alliance name is a little oblique, probably intentionally so, but they’re a labor-backed 501(c)(4).)

• CO-04: Could Scott McInnis’s implosion and Tom Tancredo’s gubernatorial run actually help Democratic fortunes downballot, especially in the hotly-contested 4th? That’s what Politico is wondering, with a piece looking at how reduced GOP turnout and/or increased interest in Constitution Party candidate Doug Aden might ultimately benefit Democratic freshman Rep. Betsy Markey.

• NH-02: If there’s one competitive Democratic primary left where there’s a pretty clear ideological contrast, it’s in the 2nd. While Ann McLane Kuster is a netroots fave, Katrina Swett is on record as having supported the Bush-era tax cuts in 2002 (the decision of whether or not to extend said cuts is about to become an issue in Congress). Swett says she’s being misrepresented, to the extent that only supported the middle-class parts of the tax cuts, although she didn’t clarify whether or not she would have voted for the whole shebang.

• PA-06: Buried in a story about how Rep. Jim Gerlach has actually been giving money to the NRCC (to the tune of $44K just now, for a total of $100K all cycle) is news of an internal poll from a few weeks ago, which suggests he’s not in the sort of imminent danger that would require him to horde cash. He’s pointing to a Wilson Research poll from mid-July that gives him a 54-29 lead over Dem nominee Manan Trivedi.

• MI-Legislature: One state where we aren’t hurting for details on the state of the state legislatures, thanks to Michigan Liberal’s pbratt, is Michigan. He’s out with pre-primary filing fundraising databases for both the Senate (Republican-controlled, but one of our best offensive opportunities) and the House (reliably Democratic-controlled).

• Meta: I’ve always wondered, if this is such an anti-incumbent year, where the losing incumbents actually are. The Fix’s Aaron Blake is taking notice of the same thing, as we’re on track to have not really any more of an anti-incumbent year than 2008. With really only one more House member who seems on track to lose a primary (Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick), that puts us on track for 4 primary losses for both parties in the House… exactly the same number as 2008. Winning a primary, of course, takes loads of money, and the thing that sets the successful challengers (Mike Oliverio or Mo Brooks, or Joe Sestak at the Senate level) apart from the vast array of the rabble attacking from both left and right is $$. It is worth observing, though, that the average incumbent winning percentage seems to be down this year from last cycle, with many incumbents winning ugly, in the 60-70% range. We’d need to investigate how much that average percentage has changed since 2008, though, before declaring a trend to be underway.

• Rasmussen:

• AL-Gov: Ron Sparks (D) 35%, Robert Bentley (R) 55%

• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 43%, Mark Kirk (R) 41%

• NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 45%, Sharron Angle (R) 43%

• OR-Gov: John Kitzhaber (D) 44%, Chris Dudley (R) 47%

If you’d told me back in, say, January, that in late July Rasmussen would be finding Harry Reid winning and John Kitzhaber losing, I wouldn’t have even laughed at you, I would have just picked up the phone and called for assistance from men in white suits with big butterfly nets.

PPP (pdf) (7/23-25, California voters, 5/21-23 in parentheses):

Jerry Brown (D): 46 (48)

Meg Whitman (R): 40 (36)

Undecided: 14 (16)

(MoE: ±3.95%)

Pundits keep telling us that Jerry Brown’s pretty consistent small lead in the polls is, at some point, going to get washed out by Meg Whitman’s seemingly limitless financial advantage. Whitman’s up against two things, though: California’s strong Democratic lean (the sample broke 58 Obama/36 McCain), and an apparent long-past point of diminshing returns on her advertising binge. Once everyone in the state has seen your ads 500 times, what more can you do if you’re selling a crappy product? As Republican sage Tom Davis would no doubt point out, that’s just as true with a person as it is with dog food.

Although the head-to-head gap is narrower than in May, PPP finds Meg Whitman’s favorables (now 30/50) haven’t recovered from her bruising primary battle with Steve Poizner (she was at 24/44 in May). Moreover, by a 52/31 margin, people agree that there should be some sort of legal limit on how much a person can donate to his or her own campaign. Perhaps increasingly aware that she can’t keep hiding behind her ads to November and will have to engage the news cycle, Whitman is today agreeing to two more debates (bringing the total to a whopping three).

PPP (pdf) (7/23-25, California voters, 5/21-23 in parentheses):

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 49 (45)

Carly Fiorina (R): 40 (42)

Undecided: 11 (13)

(MoE: ±3.95%)

While Jerry Brown’s lead over Meg Whitman has shrunk a bit, Barbara Boxer has put a little distance between her and Carly Fiorina since the May primary. Fiorina’s favorables are down in, well, Meg Whitman territory, at 28/40 (she was at 22/30 in May). Boxer’s approval, while still negative at 44/46, is improved from May (37/46), though, as she’s only recently started to make the case for re-election.

Before we move on from California, let’s take a ganja break. The highest-profile initiative on the ballot in November, Proposition 19, proposes to legalize and tax the consumption of marijuana. PPP finds the highest (no pun intended) support yet of any pollster for Prop 19: 52% support it, and 36% oppose it. 38% of Californians say they’ve tried marijuana, but even among the non-smokers, Prop 19 (and the revenue and enforcement-savings it generates) draws 44% support. Nate Silver points out one other interesting quirk: the large disparity in support for Prop 19 between automated and live-caller pollsters.

Finally, PPP looked at the gay marriage question, although that won’t be on the ballot again this year. In view of Prop 8’s narrow passage (52-48, which was a vote against gay marriage) in 2008, the needle has barely budged. Support for gay marriage in California is currently at 46-47.

The DCCC has upped their budget for ad reservations by $20 million, hitting up twenty more districts, including open seats, a handful of incumbents, and for the first time, a small batch of Republican-held targets. Here’s the full list:

District	Incumbent	Obama %ge
AR-01	OPEN	38%
AR-02	OPEN	44%
DE-AL	OPEN	62%
FL-25	OPEN	49%
HI-01	Djou	70%
IL-10	OPEN	61%
IN-08	OPEN	47%
LA-02	Cao	74%
MA-10	OPEN	55%
MD-01	Kratovil	40%
MI-01	OPEN	50%
NH-01	Shea-Porter	53%
NH-02	OPEN	56%
OR-05	Schrader	54%
PA-07	OPEN	56%
PA-15	Dent	56%
TN-08	OPEN	43%
WA-03	OPEN	52%
WI-07	OPEN	56%
WV-01	OPEN	42%

Just six Republican targets are listed: DE-AL, FL-25, HI-01, IL-10, LA-02, and PA-15. The D-trip isn’t done yet, though. The New York Times reports that the committee intends to release another list of districts in the near future. All told, the DCCC has reserved $49 million worth of ad time in 61 districts. (The first batch is available here.) That’s not to say that the D-trip will end up spending in all of these races, but the option is on the table.

The roundup, of last night’s unexpectedly exciting results.

• OK-Gov (D): Incumbent LG Jari Askins pulled out a razor-thin win over incumbent Attorney General Drew Edmondson, despite Edmondson’s polling lead before the election. Football coaching legend Barry Switzer’s endorsement of Brad Henry 8 years ago is sometimes credited with Henry’s come-from-behind win, and perhaps the same applies this time around?
• OK-Gov (R): No surprise in the GOP gubernatorial race, where 5th CD Rep. Mary Fallin scored 55% against three opponents – this is eerily close to Ernest Istook (Fallin’s predecessor)’s 55% haul in 2006. Regardless of who wins in November, Oklahoma will have its first female governor in 2011.
• OK-01 (R): John Sullivan drew five challengers in his bid for re-election, with presumably some discontent on his right flank. Sullivan’s 62% performance puts him quite in line with other underwhelming incumbent performances this cycle.
• OK-02 (D)/(R): Incumbent Dan Boren easily dispatched State Senator Jim Wilson by a 76-24 margin. Wilson lost the counties in his own district 36-64, and the rest of the district by an even wider 78-22 margin. Boren will face one of the two underfunded GOPers who moved onto the runoff, Charles Thompson or Daniel Edmonds. Given that neither Thompson nor Edmonds has even one measly K in their campaign accounts, Boren should be a lock for re-election in November.

• OK-05 (D)/(R): On the GOP side, Christian camp director Jim Lankford and former state Rep. (and 2006 candidate) Kevin Calvey will move onto the runoff, having earned 34% and 32% respectively. State Rep. Mike Thompson – despite having the largest campaign warchest – came in third with 18%. The winner of that runoff will be heavily favored against Democrat Billy Coyle, a veteran and attorney, in this R+13 district.
  

CT-Sen: I thought it was pretty weird that alleged non-candidate Rob Simmons was going to participate in a GOP debate last night. Well, he un-weirded things (I guess) by declaring at this debate that he is “running for the United States Senate.” We’ll see if it sticks. The primary, by the way, is August 10th.

KS-Sen: Not something you see every day: Rep. Jerry Moran’s former campaign manager, who claims he was pushed out in April, has endorsed rival Rep. Todd Tiahrt. Paul Moore said he thinks Moran, who has led in every single public poll, is not “instinctively conservative.”

NC-Sen: A new Civitas poll has Richard Burr leading Elaine Marshall 44-37. It’s been a really long time since Civitas looked at this race; in December of last year, they found Burr up 40-32.

WA-Sen: Obama alert! The POTUS will headline a fundraiser for Sen. Patty Murray on August 17th in Seattle.

FL-Gov: McLaughlin & Associates supposedly has yet another poll out, but not for their client Bill McCollum. Apparently, they did double duty for the Florida Medical Association, and – surprise – found Rick Scott leading McCollum 37-33. This seems like a pretty colossal waste of money, since McCollum’s internal – released just the other day – had him down 37-31.

Meanwhile, McCollum had to deal with a small brush fire: former Florida House Speaker Alan Bense held a private meeting with Rick Scott over the weekend. The problem is that Bense is supposed to be a McCollum supporter – something he re-iterated after his soiree, saying he only got together with Scott to be polite. Bense is also the chairman-elect of the Florida Chamber of Commerce, and his group is expected to get behind Billy Mac. And in case anyone still cares what unlovable loser Gary Bauer thinks, he endorsed McCollum.

KS-Gov: Dem state Sen. Tom Holland raised $283K from Jan. 1 to July 22nd and has $103K on hand. His Republican opponent, Sen. Sam Brownback, took in $519K and has $1.2 million in the bank. Note, though, that Holland’s fundraising mostly took place after the legislative session ended in June (there are strict regulations on fundraising while the lege is in operation), while Brownback was free to raise from all sources throughout the reporting period. Brownback’s been spending his time well, mind you: He just introduced legislation which would ban the creation of “part-human, part-animal creatures.” Sadly, this would mean no manticores, minotaurs, or mermaids. And I was really looking forward to embracing our brave new Greek mythology future.

MN-Gov: Glad to see that Citizens United is proving to be a two-edged sword. Target has donated $150,000 to a right-wing group called MN Forward, which is running TV ads on behalf of extremist Republican nominee Tom Emmer. Gay groups in particular are incensed, since Target had been known as a gay-friendly employer, even going so far as to support the Twin Cities Gay Pride Festival. And speaking for myself, Target can get fucked – as can Best Buy and any other corporation which uses corporate money to help elect Republicans. Not shopping at either location anymore, that’s for sure.

NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo is launching his first TV ad of the cycle, a spot about property taxes. Of course, NWOTSOTB, or whether it’s cable or broadcast, or even where it’s airing. Sigh.

OH-Gov: Obama alert 2! The day after the POTUS appears in WA (see bullet above), he’ll be doing a fundraiser for Ted Strickland in Columbus.

OR-Gov: We haven’t done writeups of our most recent batch of race ratings yet, but Carla Axtman of Blue Oregon has a nice writeup of an interview she did with Crisitunity at Netroots Nation, where he explains our decision to move OR-Gov from Likely D to Tossup.

RI-Gov: Linc Chafee is doing his best to out-do Martha Coakley when it comes to alienating Red Sox Nation (a broad constituency throughout New England). While criticizing state loan guarantees to a video game company owned by Schilling, he also decided to question whether Schilling’s famous “bloody sock” game was legit. Already Chafee’s tried to walk back the remark – but there are no do-overs in baseball. Or politics.

GA-02: Dem Rep. Sanford Bishop, in a competitive race with Republican Mike Keown (who oh-so-narrowly outraised the incumbent last quarter), formally kicked off his campaign yesterday with a newly-famous Georgian at his side: Shirley Sherrod, with whom you are most certainly familiar by now. Even though this district is almost 48% black, it’s also extremely competitive politically, going 54% for Obama and 50% for Kerry.

KS-01: SurveyUSA has one final look at the open-seat GOP primary in KS-01, finding a three-way tie between state Sen. Jim Barnett, realtor Tracey Mann, and state Sen. Tim Huelskamp. All pull 24%. Last time, it was 23-20-18.

MA-09: Bubba alert! Bill Clinton is doing a fundraiser and rally this Thursday for conservadem and anti-healthcare reform asshole Stephen Lynch. Lynch faces a primary from Mac D’Alessandro and has a monster cash advantage ($1.3 million to just $72K), so this surely seems like overkill to me – but of course, the Big Dog loves to pay back favors, and Lynch was (you guessed it) a Hillary supporter in 2008.

NY-13: Rep. Mike McMahon, seeking to avoid a primary on the Independence Party line, is challenging the petitions of third-party irritant John Tabacco. Tabacco needs only 497 valid signatures, but New York has absurdly stringent rules which make it very easy to knock “bad” sigs out. Therefore, the common rule of thumb is that you need to submit at least twice as many petitions as the law requires, and Tabacco only provided 678. Therefore, I’m going to guess that McMahon – who is highly motivated here – will succeed in his challenges. Tabacco has some more problems to worry about, though – after giving a loan to the wife of the chair of the state Independence Party last year, he suddenly got their ballot line in a city council race (funnily enough, for the seat vacated by McMahon).

NY-15: House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer is dipping a toe into new waters, suggesting that resignation is an option for Charlie Rangel. So is fighting the charges, Hoyer says, but a ringing endorsement of the embattled former Ways and Means chair this is not. Meanwhile, Walt Minnick isn’t playing footsie, becoming the second Dem (after OH-13’s Betty Sutton) to call on Rangel to quit the House.

Rangel is still in talks with the ethics committee to try to reach some sort of plea bargain, but it seems that he’s unwilling to cop to a sufficiently broad array of violations to satisfy the committee members. If Rangel can’t come to terms, he’d face a “public hearing” (essentially a trial). As the New York Times points out, the last time this happened was in 2002, when Jim Traficant was expelled from the House.

PA-07: Teabagger Jim Schneller, hoping to appear on the ballot as an independent, says he’s gathered 5,200 signatures so far – a thousand more than the 4,200 he needs to submit by August 2nd. It remains to be seen if Republican Pat Meehan will try to challenge Schneller’s bid.

TN-03: Politico has a piece documenting the wingnut-on-wingnut violence stemming from the fight to replace outgoing Rep. Zach Wamp in this dark-red seat. The battle is between attorney Chuck Fleischmann and former state GOP chair Robin Smith.

Fundraising: A rare day: two Steny Hoyer mentions in one digest. The House Majority Leader is parachuting into a whole host of districts, doing events for Dems such as Mark Critz, Chris Carney, Tim Bishop, Denny Heck, and the undeserving Larry Kissell. Hoyer, like Nancy Pelosi, got where he is because lots and lots of people owe him – and will continue to owe him. Let this be a lesson to aspiring progressive leaders in Congress.