August 2010 – Page 3 – Swing State Project

Louisiana and West Virginia Primary Preview

Saturday night is alright for hot congressional primary action. Polls close in West Virginia at 7:30pm Eastern, and Louisiana at 9pm.

LA-Sen (R): The race that never was. After being teased with the tantalizing prospect of cat fud for, well, years, David Vitter just never drew a Republican challenger of any substance despite his “serious sins”. The best he got was ex-state supreme court justice Chet Traylor, who has yet to break 5% in the polls. I believe that Crisitunity summed this race up pretty well earlier in the week:

Former state supreme court justice Chet Traylor’s late-breaking bid against Vitter was very interesting for the first few days, but at this point we might as well just close the book on it: his fundraising never materialized, his “family values” turned out to be as suspect as Vitter’s, and somehow he manages to be upside-down on favorables among GOP voters.

It’d probably be something of a minor accomplishment if Traylor could crack double digits tonight.

LA-02 (D): This Democratic primary — originally thought to be essentially to be the offer of a free House seat, although accidental GOP incumbent Joe Cao released an internal that suggests otherwise — was supposed to attract every ambitious New Orleans politician around. In the end, though, it really only attracted two of note: state Reps. Cedric Richmond and Juan LaFonta. The establishment, both local and in DC, also quickly got behind Richmond (who finished third in the 2008 primary that Bill Jefferson eventually won). The DCCC added him but not LaFonta to Red to Blue, and both Mitch and Mary Landrieu recently endorsed him. The lone internal poll of the primary made public gave Richmond a 53-13 edge over LaFonta, outside the runoff zone. (There are some minor candidates present, so a runoff is possible.) (C)

LA-03 (R): Three GOPers are in the race for this Cajun Country seat left behind by Dem Charlie Melancon: former Houma State Rep. (and Democrat until 2000) Hunt Downer, attorney Jeff Landry, and engineer Kristian Magar. Downer is the establishment pick, but we saw on Tuesday how far that may or may not get you in the GOP these days. The tea-stained Landry and Magar have both been hitting Downer, whose history as a Democrat might just come back to bite him. Landry’s outspent Downer ($297k to $282k) and has the CoH advantage as well ($234k to $126k). This race will head to a runoff should no one clear 50%; a mano-a-mano matchup against either ‘bagger may be more difficult for Downer to handle. (JMD)

WV-Sen (D/R): If Gov. Joe Manchin doesn’t win the Democratic primary for the race to fill the late Sen. Robert Byrd’s senate seat, we might have transitioned into an alternate universe. Manchin’s “main” opponent is Ken Hechler, “a 95-year-old former congressmen who represented West Virginia between 1959 and 1976 and also served in the Truman administration.” That means Hechler is actually older than Byrd was at the time of his death! Manchin’s already raised $1.2 million. No one else is even remotely close.

On the GOP side, richie rich John Raese is expected to win the nod against an even more uninspiring field. Raese has self-funded half a million bucks so far, and again, everyone else is scrounging for couch change. (Note that Raese spent more than $2 million of his own money running against Byrd in 2006, only to pull just 34% of the vote.) (D)

SSP Daily Digest: 8/27 (Evening Edition)

• FL-Sen: Well, so much for the secret ballot. The Palm Beach Post deduced that Jeff Greene voted for himself… inasmuch as his vote was the only vote for himself in his entire precinct. It was a 2-to-1 vote (literally… Kendrick Meek got 2). Even his wife didn’t vote for him, although that’s because she isn’t registered to vote in the county. (Marco Rubio got 26 votes in the same precinct.) Meanwhile, Charlie Crist seems to have lost some of his footing after a convincing Meek victory in the Dem primary; he flip-flopped on health care reform in the space of one day, saying in a TV interview that he would have voted for health care reform, then, after the Rubio camp started flagging that, saying later in the day that he actually wouldn’t have voted for it. I get that he wants to appeal to both Dems and moderate GOPers, but he has to be less transparent than that.

• IL-Sen: Bad news for Alexi Giannoulias: the Constitution Party slate just got struck from the ballot, so Randy Stufflebeam won’t be there to siphon right-wing votes from Mark Kirk. Libertarian candidate Mark Labno will be on the ballot, though, as a Kirk alternative (as will Green LeAlan Jones).

• IN-Sen: This is sort of pushing the outer limit of when it’s a good idea to release an internal, but it looks like the Brad Ellsworth camp needed to let people know that he’s still in this race. His own poll, via Garin Hart Yang, finds him trailing Dan Coats 49-38. The race is closer among those who actually know Ellsworth, but his six-week-long ad buy is about to end, so his name rec problems may persist.

• KY-Sen: Jack Conway is joining Elaine Marshall on the Alan Simpson-pile-on, seconding calls for the firing of Simpson from the Social Security commission in the wake of his “milk cow” comments. Meanwhile, Rand Paul has apparently brushed up on his elementary math skills recently, as he’s now backtracking on previous pledges to erase the nation’s federal budget deficit in one year.

• MO-Sen, MO-04: Although this poll from Missouri State University (on behalf of TV station KY3) looks good for Robin Carnahan, it’s got some methodological issues that we just aren’t comfortable with. It was taken over the period of Aug. 7-22, is of registered (not likely) voters, and it also wound up with a sample that was 63% female, although they say they weighted for various demographic factors. At any rate, it shows the race a dead heat, with Roy Blunt leading Robin Carnahan 49-48. It also took looks at three House races in the Show Me State, although with MoEs in the 7% ballpark. In the 4th, Ike Skelton has a 47-35 lead over Vicki Hartzler. Two GOP-held seats look to be pretty uneventful: in the open 7th, Billy Long leads Scott Eckersley 51-23, and in the 8th, Jo Ann Emerson leads fundraising maven Tommy Sowers 64-17.

• WI-Sen: Seems like it was just this morning we were discussing the second instance of Ron Johnson’s flagrant hypocrisy when it comes to railing against government involvement in the market, except when it comes to government aid for his own business… and now we’re up to a third instance before the day’s even out. On Wednesday it came out that in 1985 he’d gotten $2.5 million in government loans to expand his plastics business, and now it’s come out that in 1983, two years earlier, he’d gotten a separate $1.5 million loan for a $4 mil total.

• NM-Gov: The DGA is out with a new ad against Susana Martinez in the gubernatorial race, hitting her for $350K in bonuses handed out in her prosecutor’s office. NWOTSOTB, but we’re told it’s a statewide saturation buy.

• VT-Gov: The final count from the SoS office in the Dem gubernatorial primary seemed to get finished ahead of schedule, as numbers today gave Peter Shumlin a 197-vote win over Doug Racine. Racine said that he would go ahead and request a recount; state law provides for a taxpayer-funded recount for a candidate trailing by less than 2% (seems like a pretty generous recount policy compared with most states). In keeping with the primary’s very civil tone, both candidates continued to praise each other and say they understood the recount choices.

• CO-07: Republican pollster Magellan (which put out an internal for Scott Tipton in CO-03 last week) is out with a poll in the 7th as well now, although this appears to be on their own, not as an internal for Ryan Frazier. At any rate, their poll gives a 40-39 lead to Republican Frazier, over incumbent Dem Ed Perlmutter. (10% opt for “some other candidate.”)

• MS-04: Thanks to Haley Barbour, the previously low-dollar campaign of state Rep. Steven Palazzo just kicked into higher gear (or into gear, period). Barbour held a fundraiser for Palazzo that raised $177K, which will help his uphill campaign against Democratic Rep. Gene Taylor.

• SC-05: Another POS poll in the 5th on behalf of GOP state Sen. Mick Mulvaney has him making up ground on Rep. John Spratt; the two are now tied at 46-46. Spratt led by 2 in a previous POS poll in May. Spratt retorted to CQ that in his own polling he was ahead with “breathing room,” but declined to provide specific numbers.

• Ads: Other ads for your consideration today include not one but two new ads from Roy Barnes, going negative against Nathan Deal (on the ethics issue, but also general Washington-bashing). In OH-Gov, Ted Strickland is also out with a double-shot of ads, hitting John Kasich for his free-trading past. Chet Edwards is out with an anti-Bill Flores ad in TX-17 accusing Flores of lying about having voted for GOPer Rob Curnock in 2008 (he didn’t vote at all that day), while the Club for Growth is out with a PA-Sen ad that calls Joe Sestak “liberal” several hundred times in the space of 30 seconds.

• Rasmussen:

• AZ-Sen: Rodney Glassman (D) 31%, John McCain (R-inc) 53%

• FL-Gov: Alex Sink (D) 36%, Rick Scott (R) 41%, Bud Chiles (I) 8%

• NM-Gov: Diane Denish (D) 43%, Susana Martinez (R) 48%

• SC-Gov: Vincent Sheheen (D) 36%, Nikki Haley (R) 52%

• WI-Gov: Tom Barrett (D) 44%, Scott Walker (R) 47%

• WI-Gov: Tom Barrett (D) 44%, Mark Neumann (R) 48%

A Startling Fact About the Black Electorate

By: Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

In the 2008 presidential election, 65.3% of eligible blacks voted – a voting rate about equal to the 66.1% of eligible whites who voted.

This is actually quite amazing. Indeed, in demographic terms this should not be happening.

The reason why below.

Here is why. Voter participation is affected by many categories. Age, for instance, is one factor. Young people, busy with their lives and politically less involved, have historically low voting rates. The elderly, on the other hand, vote in high numbers. Immigrants are also less likely to vote – thus the immigrant-heavy Hispanic and Asian communities have quite low voting rates, as the chart above indicates.

These two specific factors affect blacks and whites about equally. Others, however, hit blacks harder. As a whole, the black electorate is much poorer than the white electorate, and poor people are less likely to vote in the United States. In the 1988 presidential election, voter turn-out amongst the bottom fifth of Americans was 36.4%. Amongst the top fifth of Americans it was 63.1%. Education levels have a positive correlation with turn-out – and education attainment is lower amongst blacks than whites. More blacks also live in the South, where turn-out has been historically lower than the national mean. Finally, there are millions of blacks disenfranchised as ex-felons.

Demographically, therefore, blacks should be voting less than whites – and yet they are not.

This has startling implications. It means that a black person is far more likely to vote than a white person of similar circumstances. Indeed, according to the Census “the odds of voting in 2008 were about twice as high for blacks,” than whites once age, region, sex, income and educational attainment were factored in.

In other words, a black plumber was twice as likely to vote as a white plumber, a black lawyer twice as likely to vote as a white one. It is only because lawyers are more likely to vote than plumbers – and because the ratio of poor plumbers to rich lawyers is higher amongst blacks than whites – that voting participation is equal amongst blacks and whites.

This phenomenon is not just limited to 2008. In 2004 black voters in the South composed 17.9% of the overall Southern electorate, equal to their share of eligible voters. Consider that Southern blacks are poorer, less educated, and more likely to be in jail than Southern whites – yet still vote at the same rates as Southern whites. This means that a 30-year-old black male making $60,000 was much more likely to vote than his white counterpart.

So the next time that a political pundit talks about low black turn-out, don’t believe it. Person to person, man to man, blacks vote more often than any other race.

Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

Blue = Murkowski, Red = Miller

In case you’ve lost your pulse, we’ve been all over the short-circuiting, wingnuts gone wild Alaska Senate race this week. A recap of our latest coverage:

Roundup #1: Libertarians may cut a deal, Begich backs McAdams, and more.

Jeffmd’s projection: SSP Labs guru jeffmd busts out the slide rule, abacus, yardstick, and junior chemistry set to forecast that the outstanding ballots may not actually help Murkowski at all.

Roundup #2: The vote count schedule, the Libertarian wish list, and McAdams on the stump.

Staying Classy: Joe Miller puts up a tasteless tweet and then deletes it – but not before Team SSP busts his balls.

Cat Fud: In case you didn’t see, check out the Murkowski campaign’s furious response to Miller’s tweet. Goddamn, this is the kind of Fancy Feast that is fit for human consumption!

AK-Sen: Stay Classy, Joe Miller!

Joe Miller tweets:

What’s the difference between selling out your party’s values and the oldest profession? http://bit.ly/93kXBr #teaparty #tcot #alaska #ak

UPDATE: I see that Joe Miller quickly pulled the plug on that tweet. But don’t worry, James Hell has the screenshot!

LATER UPDATE: The Murkowski campaign is furious:

Sean Cockerham spoke with Murkowski’s campaign manager John Bitney, who had this to say:

“He just basically called Senator Murkowski a prostitute,” Bitney said. “I am doing my best in a moment of extreme anger right at the moment to be measured in my remarks. The word that comes to mind is deplorable. Disgusting. The man has no place representing Alaska in the U.S. Senate with that kind of attitude.”

Bitney said this is being watched nationally and Miller should be ashamed to take it to that level. “He owes Alaskans an apology.”

StephenCLE’s 2010 Governor Predictions – Initial Picks

StephenCLE’s Governor Races 2010 Preview –

Current governor breakdown – 26 democrats, 24 republicans

38 seats are up for grabs in 2010

First up, here’s the map:

Now for the wordy roundup of each race (although some aren’t so wordy):

Alabama – Ron Sparks vs Robert Bentley – This is a race that would in a normal year look interesting because of Alabama’s penchant for electing conservative democrats every now and then. However, with a republican wave set to sweep the nation and the south in particular, I don’t give Sparks much of a chance here. Bentley by 20 points at least.

Rating – Solid R

Alaska – Sean Parnell vs Ethan Berkowitz – With the Senate race surprisingly haywire a few days ago, a lot of attention has been thrown Alaska’s way, but not for this race. Parnell is safe.

Rating – Solid R

Arizona – Jan Brewer vs Terry Goddard – Now this is a race that looks interesting and that has had several twists and turns already and could have more down the stretch. Goddard looked like a shoo-in until Jan Brewer signed the infamous SB 1070, igniting the whole immigration debate once again. Polls have been mixed, but I feel Brewer is definitely ahead, but this race has the potential to be quite volatile. It could boil down ultimately to whether Arizona’s immense Hispanic population turns out or not.

Rating – Lean R

Arkansas – Jim Keet vs Mike Beebe – Unlike the rest of the south region, it looks like Arkansas is a safe haven for popular governor Mike Beebe. Polls show him leading by 15-20 points right now. Safe for now, but I could see a scenario where Blanche Lincoln drags down his victory margin if she fails to get 40% in the Senate race.

Rating – Safe D

California – Meg Whitman vs Jerry Brown – This has been a really close race since the start, but a lot of that is because Whitman, former EBay CEO, has absolutely gone crazy with saturating the airwaves, spending tens of millions of her own money. Former governor Jerry Brown, who is the democratic nominee, hasn’t gone to the advertising well much as of yet. Hard to tell what will happen in the polls once he does, but I’d think he’d get at least a slight bounce. Close one right now, I think Brown will win in the end though.

Rating – Toss Up

Colorado – Dan Maes vs John Hickenlooper vs Tom Tancredo – A total clustereff for the GOP, as their top man, Scott McInnis, got thrown to the curb following news of plagiarism in his past. The ordeal prompted conservative blowhard Tom Tancredo to run as an independent, and between him and the rather weak GOP candidate, Dan Maes, the right is horrible split. Unless one or the other collapses at some point, Hickenlooper will walk into office.

Rating – Likely D

Connecticut – Tom Foley vs Dan Malloy – Jodi Rell’s retirement really helped out the democrats here, as their candidate, former Stamford mayor Dan Malloy, is holding a big lead over GOP candidate Tom Foley. That, coupled with the overall lean of the state leads me to believe that this one is almost in the bag. Malloy would really have to screw up to not win.

Rating – Likely D

Florida – Rick Scott vs Alex Sink vs Bud Chiles – Florida is chock-full of 3-way races this cycle, and with Bud Chiles pulling at least 10% in most polls, I throw him in here, but really the race is between Rick Scott and Alex Sink. Scott is a rich, teabagging jerkoff that won this seat solely because of his riches, as the much stronger GOP establishment fave, Bill McCollum, got swallowed in negative ads. Scott’s favorables are in the tank. Sink, Florida’s CFO, has mostly stayed away from the fray so far, and her favorables are still quite good. Despite the year and the fickleness of Florida politically, I like Sink right now to win.

Rating – Lean D

Georgia – Nathan Deal vs Roy Barnes – Georgia is a state that in an environment like this should be out of reach to Team Blue. But the democrats nominated a strong candidate in former governor Roy Barnes, while Team Red went with the ethically-questionable 9th house district rep Nathan Deal. The candidate strength disparity is keeping this one competitive and I think it’ll be a fight all the way. In the end I expect the republican surge, and the southern surge in particular (R’s lead by 20+ on the generic ballot in the southeast), to carry Deal across the finish line.

Rating – Toss Up

Hawaii – Duke Aiona vs Neil Abercrombie/Mufi Hannemann – The democratic primary hasn’t been held yet here, but unless things really get ugly between Abercrombie and Hannemann, I expect either will crush Aiona in November.

Rating – Solid D

Idaho – Butch Otter vs Keith Allred – This race isn’t going to be much worth watching. Otter should cruise in this hugely red state.

Rating – Solid R

Illinois – Bill Brady vs Pat Quinn – This race to me is a real shocker. On the GOP side, you have a deeply conservative candidate from downstate that should never, ever, in a million years be elected statewide in Illinois. Yet it seems that governor Pat Quinn is so universally hated by the masses that he is going to end up losing. I don’t understand why Quinn is so unpopular, and I want to believe that he can come back and win, but once you get below the SSP-coined “Corzine Line”, it’s very difficult to pull yourself up.

Rating – Lean R

Iowa – Terry Branstad vs Chet Culver – Another Midwestern governor’s race where it appears that the incumbent is so reviled that he has no chance. Culver isn’t quite as hated as Quinn, but he’s also facing a much tougher opponent in former governor Terry Branstad.

Rating – Likely R

Kansas – Sam Brownback vs Tom Holland – Blowout city. Next.

Rating – Solid R

Maine – Paul LePage vs Elizabeth Mitchell – Wait, could you repeat those names again? That’s the story of the Maine race right now, as neither is well-known. Supposedly, LePage is too conservative for the state as a whole, but given that state’s past history, I’m somewhat ambivalent. For now, I’ll stick with the PVI and say that Mitchell is slightly favored. I haven’t seen any polling here recently either, and most early polling was by Scotty Rass.

Rating – Toss Up

Maryland – Bob Ehrlich vs Martin O’Malley – Here’s a race that I don’t quite understand. Martin O’Malley has generally decent, even good, favorables and resides in an extremely blue state. Yet former governor Bob Ehrlich is within 5 points of him in the polls. Maryland is an almost impossible state for Team Red, so unless the economy really goes to shit between now and November, I don’t see how Ehrlich can win. It wouldn’t surprise me if O’Malley started pulling away at some point if his favorables stay +5-+10 where they are now.

Rating – Lean D

Massachusetts – Charlie Baker vs Deval Patrick vs Tim Cahill – Here’s another three-way, and it was a pretty close one too until the RGA went hard negative against indy Tim Cahill, knocking him down into the teens in the polls. Deval Patrick is leading by 7-10 points generally, but he’s below 40% in most surveys. Still, I don’t see MA electing republican senators and governors back to back. The democratic base may not like Patrick, but nose-holding is practically a pastime in Massachusetts.

Rating – Lean D

Michigan – Rick Snyder vs Virg Bernero – Let me start by saying that I absolutely adore Virg Bernero, I think he’s probably the greatest progressive nominee the Democrats have in the governor’s area this cycle. But, the bad thing is, he may be too liberal even for Michigan, and he’s going up against a centrist in Rick Snyder. Polls are showing Snyder way ahead too. It looks like this is a case of the outgoing governor being so unpopular that it drags down the current nominee. What a shame.

Rating – Lean R

Minnesota – Tom Emmer vs Mark Dayton – This is the one state in the Midwest that hasn’t seemed to lose it’s democratic leanings, at least as far as governors are concerned. Former senator Mark Dayton appears to be on pace to take out GOP nominee Tom Emmer by a wide margin. Better yet, the latter probably won’t be able to eat at a restaurant in Minnesota without having his food spat in for the rest of his life.

Rating – Likely D

Nebraska – Dave Heineman vs Dave Meister – The only question here is, does Heineman feel like becoming a senator? He’s got it if he wants it in 2012.

Rating – Solid R

Nevada – Brian Sandoval vs Rory Reid – The republicans in NV did themselves a favor by kicking unpopular governor Jim Gibbons to the curb in favor of attorney general Brian Sandoval. The latter has had a few hiccups on the campaign trail already, but is a huge favorite over Rory Reid, who is probably unpopular solely due to his last name.

Rating – Likely R

New Hampshire – undetermined vs John Lynch – The republican candidate is yet to be determined in New Hampshire, but incumbent governor John Lynch is doing very well in the polls and has very solid favorables. Safe, even though NH has turned rightward this cycle.

Rating – Solid D

New Mexico – Susana Martinez vs Diane Denish – This could be one of the closest and most intriguing races of the cycle. Dona Ana county district attorney Susana Martinez is the republican candidate, her opponent is lieutenant governor Diane Denish. From what I can tell both of these individuals have good favorables and the campaign thus far has been low key and positive. Polling is close as well, with most giving Martinez a small lead at the moment. NM is a democratic state, but the year is republican. This one’s going to be a tough cookie.

Rating – Toss Up

New York – undetermined vs Andrew Cuomo – The republicans haven’t determined their candidate here yet, but it won’t matter, as popular AG Andrew Cuomo will demolish whoever his opponent is.

Rating – Solid D

Ohio – John Kasich vs Ted Strickland – Here’s another tough race. Former Lehman Brothers higher-up John Kasich is the republican nominee, and he takes on incumbent Ted Strickland, who breezed to victory 4 years ago. The environment now is vastly different, and this election so far has centered upon jobs. The question here is whether or not Ohio voters are willing to pin the blame for Ohio’s economy on Strickland or if they will attribute it more to factors outside of his control. I’m definitely not as confident about this one as I was two months ago, but it’ll still be a fierce fight all the way.

Rating – Toss Up

Oklahoma – Mary Fallin vs Jari Askins – In a year like this, states like Oklahoma is simply out of the discussion for Team Blue. It’s a shame, because Askins isn’t half bad as a candidate.

Rating – Solid R

Oregon – Chris Dudley vs John Kitzhaber – This is a race that I can’t quite get a handle on. John Kitzhaber is a former governor of Oregon, and from polling thus far, is still relatively popular in the state. Yet, he’s locked in a tight battle against former NBA player Chris Dudley, who from what I know about him has little to no political experience. That, coupled with the democratic lean of Oregon, makes me to want to give Kitzhaber the advantage, but for now I will defer to the polls. Of all the toss-ups though, I’m most confident that the democrats will win this one.

Rating – Toss Up

Pennsylvania – Tom Corbett vs Dan Onorato – I don’t know much about Tom Corbett, but apparently he is very popular with the republican base, and more importantly, independents, in Pennsylvania. He is the sitting attorney general, while his opponent Dan Onorato is Allegheny county executive. There are two scary things about this race, first off that Pennsylvania, which usually leans democratic, has gotten way away from it’s roots and looks like a likely R state at the moment. Second, even though Onorato was arguably the best candidate the democrats had at their disposal, he’s still down around 10 points. Ouch.

Rating – Likely R

Rhode Island – undetermined vs Frank Caprio vs Lincoln Chafee – Here’s another 3-way race, but it’s really a 3INO. (3-way In Name Only) The republican has no shot at winning, but polling has been relatively close between democrat Frank Caprio and independent former senator Lincoln Chafee. The funny thing about this race is, if Chafee wins, he’ll probably be more liberal/progressive than Caprio, so an Ind Pickup is really the same or better as a Dem Pickup here.

Rating – Lean D

South Carolina – Nikki Haley vs Vincent Sheheen – This is a race that looks bad on paper for Team Blue, but has the possibility of getting interesting. The SC GOP good ole boys clearly had a problem with Haley, and tried to sabotage her on several occasions in the primary, most notably with unsubstantiated allegations of infidelity. The dem candidate, Vincent Sheheen, is a fairly strong campaigner who will be looking to capitalize on the GOP establishment’s dissatisfaction with Haley. In a year like this, it’ll be very tough but certainly not impossible.

Rating – Lean R

South Dakota – Dennis Daaguard vs Scott Heidepriem – This won’t be much of a race. Daaguard big.

Rating – Solid R

Tennessee – Bill Haslam vs Mike McWherter – Ditto for this one. Haslam to romp.

Rating – Solid R

Texas – Rick Perry vs Bill White – Now this is the one southern governorship (other than perhaps Georgia, I don’t consider Florida southern persay) that has a chance of going red to blue. Rick Perry is an extremely unpopular incumbent, probably similar to Chet Culver in Iowa. The difference between Perry and Culver is twofold, first off the year which leans republican, and second the states in which they represent. But if any democrat has a chance of cracking extremely republican Texas in a year like this, popular Houston mayor Bill White is it. This is a race that probably leans Perry at the moment, but will probably buck the rightward trend of the nation as we get down the stretch.

Rating – Lean R

Utah – Gary Herbert vs Peter Corroon – Corroon was actually a decent get for the democrats as he is the mayor (I think) of Salt Lake county. That being said, like Oklahoma, in a year like this, Utah is hopeless.

Rating – Solid R

Vermont – Brian Dubie vs Peter Shumlin – It amazes me that a state as liberal and democratic as Vermont could elect a republican governor here, but the democrats nominated their weakest possible candidate, Peter Shumlin, and Dubie is actually quite popular in VT. I have this one at tossup, mostly because of the gigantic democratic lean of the state, but if polling continues to show Dubie ahead I might have to trust the polls at some point.

Rating – Toss Up

Wisconsin – Scott Walker vs Tom Barrett – This has the makings of another close race in what is usually a fairly swingy state. The republican candidate is Milwaukee County executive Scott Walker, and in a backyard brawl of sorts he faces democratic Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett. Polling so far has shown this as either a dead heat or a very small lead for Walker. Incumbent governor Jim Doyle isn’t all that popular, which hurts Barrett, but I don’t get the feeling that democrats have felt a big backlash in Wisconsin like they have in some other states in the region.

Rating – Toss Up

Wyoming – Matt Mead vs Leslie Petersen – Cmon now, this is Wyoming in 2010. Nothing to see here.

Rating – Solid R

Recap – Well, the governor’s races this cycle for the most part lean republican, but the results vary greatly from state to state and region to region. Overall I have the democrats picking up governorships in Hawaii, Connecticut, Minnesota, Rhode Island, and California. The republicans will pick up governorships in New Mexico, Ohio, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Kansas, Oklahoma, Wyoming, and Tennessee. Many of these races are close, and are closely tied to voter discontent and the economy, much more so even than Senate or House races. Therefore we could see some great volatility in these rankings before we reach the end of the campaign in November.

2010 Governors Big Board

Solid Dem – 4 seats

Arkansas

Hawaii

New Hampshire

New York

Likely Dem – 3 seats

Colorado

Connecticut

Minnesota

Lean Dem – 4 seats

Florida

Maryland

Massachusetts

Rhode Island

Toss Up – 8 seats

California

Georgia

Maine

New Mexico

Ohio

Oregon

Vermont

Wisconsin

Lean Rep – 5 seats

Arizona

Illinois

Michigan

South Carolina

Texas

Likely Rep – 3 seats

Iowa

Nevada

Pennsylvania

Solid Rep – 10 seats

Alabama

Alaska

Idaho

Kansas

Nebraska

Oklahoma

South Dakota

Tennessee

Utah

Wyoming

AK-Sen: Libertarians, Lawyers, The Fed, and Other Updates

We did this yesterday, and by God, we’re doing it again. It’s time to sort out the craziness that is the Alaska Senate race.

The Math: Our own Jeffmd, the mad scientist of SSP Labs, forecast earlier today that Murkowski may actually lose ground once the absentee and provisional votes are counted. However, Jeff’s math assumed 7,500 GOP absentees and 5,000 provisionals (or “questioned” ballots) would be counted. That number may come in a bit higher than that. From the Anchorage Daily News:

Elections officials on Thursday evening released the first detailed breakdown of the remaining ballots.

The state has received back 11,266 absentee ballots so far out of over 16,000 requested. The ballots had to be postmarked by Tuesday’s election but can come in as much as 15 days afterward.

There are also 658 early votes not yet counted and 8,972 questioned ballots. A ballot can be “questioned” for several reasons. Often the reason is that the voter cast the ballot in a precinct other than where they live.

Of course, it’s worth repeating that some of these ballots will be counted toward the Democratic primary (although Murkowski’s campaign manager, who observed the sorting of absentee ballots at the Division of Elections, said that a “very, very high percentage” of the ballots were Republican) and some will ultimately be disqualified. Counting the ballots should be a deliciously tense affair for all involved, and Joe Miller has already lashed out at Murkowski for calling in an NRSC lawyer in an attempt to “pull an Al Franken”. (I think the more appropriate term would be “pull a Norm Coleman”, but clearly Miller knows how to ace the lunatic cultural litmus test of the right.)

The Schedule: Here’s the timetable for the outstanding ballot count:

The Division of Elections plans to count all the absentee ballots on Aug. 31 that it has received by then. Some of the questioned ballots will be disqualified; for example if it turns out the voter really wasn’t registered in Alaska. Those that are valid will likely be counted on Sept. 3. Elections officials said they’ll do a final count of absentees and any other remaining ballots on Sept. 8.

Circle those dates on your calendar — especially the 31st, which should represent the biggest chunk of outstanding ballots.

“Considering All Options”: Murkowski’s camp is staying tight-lipped on the possibility of pursuing a third-party bid, but there are definitely some signs that she’s seriously considering it. Andrew Halcro, a Murkowski supporter who ran for Governor against Sarah Palin in 2006 as an indie, has apparently begun reaching out to Libertarian nominee David Haese about a possible third-party run for Murkowski:

There is a possibility that Murkowski could run on the Libertarian ticket in the November general election if she loses the Republican primary. The Alaska Libertarian Party is discussing the possibility and its Senate candidate, David Haase, has said he is open to talking to Murkowski about him stepping aside.

Andrew Halcro, a Murkowski supporter who served with her in the state Legislature, called Haase on Wednesday and discussed the possibility. Halcro said he was acting on his own and not coordinating with the Murkowski campaign.

Halcro said he did bring it up with Murkowski on Thursday morning. “She said what she’s told (the media), that she’s considering all the options,” he said.

Strings Attached: But what price would Murkowski have to pay in order to secure a ballot position from the Libertarians? By the sounds of it, Haese has one pet issue near and dear to his heart… nationalizing the Federal Reserve:

Libertarian Haase is the only third party candidate in the race, so that would be the only option for Murkowski to join a new party for a run. Haase would surely press Murkowski on the Federal Reserve, which is his focus. “Let’s take the Federal Reserve, nationalize it and take that income earning capacity and turn it over to the people to finance Social Security and Medicare,” Haase said.

Putting aside the mind-boggling reality of a Libertarian who wants to protect Social Security and Medicare… I have to admit that I’m mystified as to what exactly “nationalizing” the Fed would entail. But, hey, no one reads SSP for the policy! Anyhow, I wonder if Murkowski’s support of a David Vitter amendment which supported a stronger audit of the Fed than the one that ultimately passed might endear her to the Libertarians.

McAdams Gears Up: While Miller and Murkowski go into a state of vigil, Democratic nominee Scott McAdams, the mayor of Sitka, is busy exciting Democratic activists on the ground in Alaska. The Mudflats has video of a speech McAdams gave to a gathering of Alaska Dems on Wednesday night, and I like what I’m hearing – the man knows how to work a room. In case you’d rather not sit through a ten-minute video, Real Clear Politics has a partial recap:

McAdams soothed some of the heartburn within the party after his first conference call with reporters on Wednesday, in which he came across as poised and up to speed on statewide issues. Then in a speech on Wednesday at the Alaska Democrats Unity Dinner in Anchorage, McAdams made it clear that he will not make the same mistake that Murkowski did in neglecting to define Miller early.

The Democratic nominee struck an aggressively contemptuous note, referred to “this Joe Miller character” and calling him a “fringe character.”

The man’s got some game:

As McAdams also demonstrated on Wednesday, he will also seize upon the very platform that appealed so much to Miller’s fiscally conservative to libertarian primary voters. After all, it won’t be easy for a candidate who vows to fight government largess to win a general election in Alaska-the state that has long benefited more than any other from federal pork projects.

“I hear him talk about the end of federal investment in Alaska,” McAdams said on Wednesday, eliciting uproarious laughter from the crowd of Democrats in attendance.

“There’s a vote getter!” an anonymous voice in the crowd shouted, causing another eruption from the crowd.

McAdams continued to hammer home the point. “But the good news is that we as Democrats stand up for working people,” he said. “We believe in job creation. We believe that Alaska as a young state deserves to be developed like every other western state in the history of the United States.”

Observant swingnuts can probably tell that I’ve been very, very sour on Democratic hopes in general this cycle for quite some time. But, it’s the Sharron Angles and the Rand Pauls and the Joe Millers of this world that make this cycle, at the very least, a lot more competitive and entertaining to watch than it has any right to be. For now, the more I think about this race, the more I like it.

AK-Sen: Absentees (and Provisionals) May Hurt Murkowski

I haven’t been up with SSP as much as I would have liked to be over the past few days, but the brewing brouhaha in Alaska was too good for me to pass up.

First, let’s take a quick look at the geography of the vote, by state house district (blue for Murkowski, red for Miller):

Murkowski did well in the southeastern part of the state, as well as the Arctic North, and the Aleutians. In the Anchorage-area inset below, you can also see that she did well in the Dem-leaning (and less GOP-vote heavy) Anchorage-city districts, but got absolutely crushed in the GOP-vote-rich Mat-Su Valley north of the city (no surprise, given Palin’s involvement).

For the analysis and maps presented here, I use Alaska House of Representative Districts, numbering 40 in total. I also rely extensively on 2008 absentee and provisional ballot rates, which I think is a reliable assumption; Election Day only turnout between the two contests is remarkably similar:

I’d also hoped to use Young v. Parnell in 2008 as a proxy for Murkowski and Miller respectively, but the correlation there isn’t as strong:

Between the 40 House Districts, there was a huge variation in the percentage of GOP ballots that were cast absentee in 2008, ranging from 2.96% in HD-39 (Nome), to 20.47% in the Anchorage-based HD-18.

Using this analysis, the outcome already begins to look grim for Lisa Murkowski. Here is a comparison of her Election Day performance and the percentage of votes cast absentee in 2008:

From this, I think we can expect fewer absentee ballots from her stronger areas, and more absentee ballots from areas more favorable to Miller.

Things look even worse for her when we start to factor in the fact that there is variation in the number of votes cast per HD, and therefore variation in the number of absentee ballots returned per HD. In 2008, this varied from a tiny 28 absentees in HD-39, to 741 in HD-34 (Rural Kenai). Assuming that each HD returns the same percentage of total absentees as they did in 2008, this is what we get:

That negative correlation we saw earlier becomes even stronger, as Miller strongholds are expected to return more of the absentee ballots outstanding. Adding the additional assumption of Murkowski’s performance among absentees to be the same as her Election Day performance (tenuous, yes), she can be expected to receive about 48.51% of the absentee vote.

Repeating this analysis for provisional ballots, things are no better for Lisa.

While the relationship between her Election Day performance and provisional ballot rate seems to be better, adding into consideration the percentage of statewide provisionals per HD shows that familiar negative correlation for her. Making the same assumptions as above, Murkowski can be expected to get 48.82% of the provisional vote.

Extrapolating further, using the oft-cited 7,500 absentees and assuming 5,000 provisionals (5,200 were cast in 2008), we can expect Miller’s margin to increase by 223 votes among absentees and 118 votes among provisionals. For Murkowski to pull this out assuming those figures for outstanding ballots, Murkowski would have to perform 8.04% better than she did on Election Day among absentees and provisionals…which is quite the tall order! More outstanding ballots means the swing she needs will be less, but it also means more ballots through which she could lose more ground. Given this, there isn’t too much reason to be optimistic for Lisa, and we might just have to put the ‘W’ in the column for the Grizzly Momma.

You can also check out my dataset below the flip.

Estimated Murkowski percentage is obtained by taking the weighted average of her performance by HD, with weights being the percentage of statewide absentees/provisionals cast within the HD.

SSP Daily Digest: 8/27 (Morning Edition)

CO-Sen: Like so many Republicans who rail against pork, Ken Buck still loves to gorge himself. Buck signed an anti-earmarks pledge pushed by Americans for Prosperity, but as Weld County DA, he asked then-Rep. Marilyn ~~Manson~~ Musgrave for a $2 million in federal funding for “expansions of North Range Behavioral Health center in Greeley.” He also “won $235,000 earmarked for the Weld County Gang Task Force.” In non-explaining this rather glaring contradiction, Weld said it “doesn’t mean I don’t want to change the system.” In other words, vote for me because I’m a hypocrite.

FL-Sen: Marco Rubio agreed to participate in a debate with Charlie Crist and Kendrick Meek, and then proposed six more. Adam Smith of the Tampa Bay Buzz explains how this play might really squeeze Crist:

Charlie Crist is almost always good on TV, but this poses a real problem for him. In a three-person debate, it would be Rubio and Meek each taking turns hitting Crist and pressing him on flip-flops and inconsistencies. It’s hard to stay above the fray when you’re the main target.

But skipping most of the debates is equally problematic. If Meek agrees to these debates and the networks agree to televise them with or without all three candidates, Crist would be letting Meek raise his profile as the Democratic alternative to Rubio.

Tom Jensen also describes another rock-and-hard-place problem for Charlie: Kendrick Meek is starting to eat his lunch among Democrats, so how can Crist regain that support? Well, he could pledge to caucus with the Democrats… but that would, of course, hurt him among Republicans. Mark Blumenthal also has an in-depth post on the subject, looking at things from Kendrick Meek’s perspective and wondering if he has a path to victory. Blumenthal concludes that Meek has a lot of room to grow, but thinks wining would be a “tall order.”

KY-Sen: Rand Paul knows that when you are in a deep hole, you bring in a back-hoe. Then, you start using some C4. Finally, you send in an army of ten million moles. At last, once you can finally hear the sound of Chinese being spoken, you know you are deep enough – and you reiterate your opposition to doing anything about the drug problem in Eastern Kentucky.

NC-Sen: Elaine Marshall has become the first (I think) challenger so far to call for former WY Sen. Alan Simpson’s resignation from what Atrios calls the “cat food commission” (not cat fud commission, sadly) – aka the president’s stupid deficit commission. Simpson, if you haven’t heard yet, wrote a vile email to the head of the National Older Women’s League, calling Social Security “a milk cow with 310 million tits” – and telling his correspondent to “get honest work.”

NV-Sen: His Mayoralness Michael Bloomberg will be hosting a fundraiser for none other than Harry Reid at Bloombo’s home in September. The Hill notes that Bloombleman has endorsed both Dems and GOPers this cycle, including Michael Bennet and Joe Sestak for the good guys, and Mark Kirk and Mike Castle for the bad guys.

Getting back to Nevada for a second, both Reid and Angle have new ads up, which you can view here. Reid has really been smacking Angle relentlessly over all the crazy shit she’s said – so I think you can understand why I said yesterday that it feels “limp” for Ron Klein to go after the similarly insane Allen West over tax issues rather than teh crazy. Anyhow, NWOTSOTB, though the Reid campaign says the ad “will be added to its rotation of statewide spots.”

WI-Sen: Wait, could there actually be room in this digest for a second Republican hypocrite? Hell yes! And it’s a repeat performance. It turns out that Ron Johnson’s plastics company Pacur received a HUD grant in 1979 to build a railway line out to its factory. This is on top of the $2.5 million federal loan Pacur received in the mid-80s to build an addition to the factory. As one blogger says, Ayn Rand must be rotating in her crypt. Don’t forget what Dagny Taggart did for a living!

AZ-03: Ben Quayle started a post-victory press conference by doubling down on his previous jerk-assedness, repeating his claim that “Barack Obama is the worst President in history.'” The douche really doesn’t fall far from the bag, huh. Meanwhile, Quayle’s former buddies at TheDirty.com were hit with an $11 million default judgment in a defamation suit brought by one of the many people they’ve wronged over the years. The only problem, however, is that the plaintiff’s attorneys appeared to have crumbed the play by naming the wrong business entity in their lawsuit. Hooman Karamian, the scumbag behind the website, says that neither he nor his company was served process, which could seriously imperil the award. In any case, all this legal wrangling is gonna make it a little harder for Quayle to get past this issue, methinks. (And Karamian, for that matter, says that he’ll stop blogging about Quayle’s involvement with the site once he “admits that he is Brock Landers”.)

FL-08: Alan Grayson is sharpening his battle axe:

“Dan Webster is deader than Elvis. … He is the ultimate establishment candidate,” Grayson quipped Wednesday, the morning after Republican voters picked the veteran former state legislator to run against him in District 8. …

Grayson, of Orlando, is a bare-knuckle campaigner who has already begun referring to Webster as “Taliban Dan,” for what he considers to be Webster’s extreme religious views. Grayson made it clear his campaign plans a heavy onslaught of attacks against Webster’s voting record.

“Stay tuned. You’ll see: We’ll be putting it out day after day, week after week,” Grayson said. “Very soon people are going to realize that Webster can’t possibly win.”

While he’s often infuriating, you gotta respect Grayson for being balls-out, and not sounding like such a wuss like so many other Democrats.

FL-17: The Miami Herald has an interesting post-mortem on the Dem primary in the 17th CD. Given the heavily Haitian population in the district, it seemed likely that it could send the first Haitian-American person to Congress. But the four candidates of Haitian descent in the race split the vote, allowing state Sen. Frederica Wilson to carry the day with 35% (a number which, given the huge size of the field, was actually considered pretty high).

FL-24: Put the can-openers away, boys – no cat fud here. Karen Diebel emerged from hiding to endorse state Rep. Sandy Adams, the winner of the GOP primary. Diebel lost by about 0.8%, but obviously this means no recount.

ME-02: Businessman Jason Levesque is up on the airwaves in his bid to upset Blue Dog Mike Michaud, touting his desire to reign in government spending. Levesque has raised over $250K for his bid, so you may want to consider adding this one to your list of races that are bubbling under. (JL)

NM-02: The other day, we mentioned that the Defenders of Wildlife threw down another $125K on a new attack ad against GOPer Steve Pearce. The New Mexico Independent has the ad, if you’d like to watch it.

NC-07: Here’s something you don’t see every day: Dem Rep. Mike McIntyre’s 2008 Republican opponent, Will Breazeale, is endorsing him. Breazeale really has it in for GOP nominee Ilario Pantano – Breazeale attempted a repeat bid this year, but was beaten by Pantano in the primary. The odd thing is that the McIntyre campaign specifically said “no comment” in regard to the endorsement. Any thoughts on why?

NC-08: Larry Kissell is touting a new internal poll from Anzalone-Liszt, showing him beating Republican Harold Johnson 49-32, with Libertarian Thomas Hill at 7. The only other interesting finding actually released in the memo is Johnson’s faves, 32-25.

NV-03: Actually, it turns out AFSCME’s buy was a lot bigger than we thought: $750K, according to independent expenditure reports, rather than the $240K reported by the Smart Media Group. AFSCME really seems to like buying in three-quarters-of-a-million chunks.

NY-01: Randy Altschuler is out with a new ad attacking Republican rival Chris Cox for living in New York City, rather than in Suffolk County. (Apparently, Cox is crashing at his uncle’s house in the Hamptons.) NWOTSOTB.

NY-13: GOPer Michael Allegretti has a new ad out, frenetically edited in the Dale Peterson style, which includes a “man on the street” declaring that Allegretti “is a paisan! He’s one of us!” And here’s an interesting detail the ad alludes to, which I think we missed: Allegretti’s opponent Mike Grimm apparently has no job and has debts which far exceed his income, according to financial disclosure forms. Gotta wonder how he can afford to run for Congress in NYC.

NY-14: Looks like the New York Post got caught trying to ratfuck the Dem primary here in my backyard. Those scuzzes tried to claim that Hillary Clinton – you know, the Secretary of State – was “unofficially” backing Reshma Saujani. Clinton confidantes and the State Department have called bullshit, though, stating that the Secretary of State does not engage in partisan politics. Duh. Nice try, Posties.

SD-AL: In politics, going after a candidate’s record traffic infractions is usually a rinky-dink play, but it turns out that Republican Kristi Noem’s record behind the wheel is very troubled:

KELOLAND News checked the records for all five candidates for U.S. House and Governor; Noem has the longest list of violations, including 20 speeding tickets, three stop sign violations, two seat belt violations, and no driver’s license. Noem also has six court notices for failure to appear and two arrest warrants.

Yikes! Meanwhile, Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin is out with a new ad that, mercifully, doesn’t feature her son’s poop, but instead speaks in dour tones about how liberals in Washington are wrecking the heartland. Pretty bleak, defeatist-sounding stuff. (JL)

My First Political Contribution

Today, August 27, 2010 marks the day I made my first political contribution. The person I choose to be lucky enough to earn the $10 that I contributed is a person who is not only an inspiring leader but a person who takes great effort in addressing many of the issues most critical to me. Issues such as Global Warming, Health Care, Education, and Woman and Gay Rights. This person also happens to be not only one of my favorite Senators but politicians as well. And the candidate who I gave a total of $10.00 is………..BARBARA BOXER (D)!!!!

For those of you who may not know, Senator Boxer is currently seeking to have 10,000 Americans contribute to her money bomb this September 1st. This goal, if broken would allow her to break through 100,000 total grassroots contributions to her campaign to date. It’s no secret that this race will be an expensive one, and with Carly Fiorina’s ability to self-finance every dollar of her own campaign Senator Boxer will need every penny she can get in order to win re-election. So I ask you will you SSP members help Boxer reach her goal of 10,000 contributors on September 1st, or will you allow someone like Carly Fiorina be able to buy herself of Senate seat. Your choice is yours! (cue in dramatic music)

PS. I do not work for Senator Boxer, do not represent her in anyway, blah blah blah blah. I’m just some teenager in Jersey (take that last part as a positive or negative characteristic I don’t care but I am in no way so gel headed bimbo from the Jersey Shore)

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