If there was ever a good indication that the Washington Top 2 primary is a good indicator of future performance, take a look at this SurveyUSA poll of WA-03. In last week’s primary, the Democratic candidates (Denny Heck + Cheryl Crist) got 42% and the Republican candidates got 54%. Those votes seem to have flowed unimpeded to the nominees, Heck and Jaime Herrera, with Herrera leading Heck 54-41.
Looking at the crosstabs, the sample is very top-heavy with oldsters (62% are 50+, and 68% report incomes of $50K or more). Not that it matters: the support for Herrera is pretty consistent across all age groups (54% or 55% in all four groups), though. With Herrera already over 50%, Heck is either going to have to change some minds quickly, or else hope (like a lot of other Dems) that the universe of likely voters gets bigger (and younger) than it is now.
The American Action Forum is back with a new batch of House polls. (They released their first dozen last week.) One major caveat, though: as pointed out in the comments section (!) of Hotline on Call, the ballot head-to-head questions in each poll were buried under several thermometer-style questions on Obama, Pelosi, and healthcare reform:
Those American Action Forum polls are designed to prime respondents into selecting Republican candidates. Instead of starting off with the ballot-test question, they start by asking if people think the country is on the right or wrong track, do they support/oppose health care reform, and their fav/unfav opinion of Obama & Pelosi (not Boehner and Bush, of course). Look, the Democrats are going to lose a lot of seats, and they will lose some of these seats in this poll, but the most credible way to conduct a general election poll is to start by asking who the respondent is voting for, because that is the one question that will actually be on a ballot. At least I give credit to these Republicans for showing the questions they asked.
That’s absolutely right. For any poll to maintain its credibility, the toplines need to be asked at the start (or at least, no later than right after the favorables, as PPP does it).
That said, we can still take a look at the toplines with a grain of salt.
Note: Check out the downright geriatric sample for the OH-16 poll — 4% of the voters are between the ages of 18 and 34, 22% are between 35 and 49, and 74% are 50 and up. SUSA’s crosstabs from 2008 had a sample breakdown among those age brackets of 20-28-52. Other polls in this batch have similar shifts, but this one is the most glaring.
Ipsos/Reuters (8/20-22, likely voters, no trend lines):
Michael Bennet (D-inc): 40
Ken Buck (R): 49
Undecided: 10
(MoE: ±4.6%)
Ipsos is back with the rosiest poll yet for turd-caked boot fetishist Ken Buck. The poll also offers an unsurprising glimpse of the enthusiasm gap in Colorado: 76% of Republicans say they are “completely certain” that they’ll vote compared to 59% of Democrats who feel the same. That gap is reflected in the registered voter screen version of the poll, where Buck’s lead over Bennet drops to 44-40.
Bennet’s campaign responded this morning with details of a Harstad Stategic Research poll (8/16-20, likely voters) conducted for their campaign:
Michael Bennet (D-inc): 44
Ken Buck (R): 40
(MoE: ±?%)
Bennet’s also up with a one-minute broadcast ad tearing into Ken Buck, in his own words. Republican media buying company Smart Media Group says that Bennet now has $106K worth of broadcast ads currently on the airwaves.
Ipsos also has a set of numbers on the gubernatorial race:
John Hickenlooper (D): 45
Dan Maes (R): 45
Other: 1
Undecided: 9
John Hickenlooper (D): 41
Dan Maes (R): 33
Tom Tancredo (C): 16
Undecided: 9
(MoE: ±4.6%)
Yikes — if there was ever a reflection of how scary this environment is for Democrats, it’s the sight of John Hickenlooper being tied with broke-assed tinfoil-hatter Dan Maes in a direct head-to-head race. (Among registered voters, Hickenlooper leads by 48-38, and by 42-27-19 in a three-way.) Those numbers are a lot more optimistic for Dan Maes than the most recent most recent PPP poll, but keep in mind that PPP hadn’t shifted to a likely voter model when they last tested this race.
Still, Hickenlooper is still clearly favored — Tancredo is still in this game, and Maes is, not surprisingly, having serious money woes. Even if you have the generic ballot on your side, it’s a bit difficult to win an election with a shoestring ad campaign…
Full Ipsos crosstabs are available below the fold.
Hey, this is Kendrick’s New Media Director, Kenneth Quinnell. Wanted to drop in after the primary victory (57%-31%, while being outspent $27 million to $3 million) to thank everyone who supported us and keep you up to date on what we’re doing moving forward.
First I wanted to make sure you saw Kendrick’s victory speech:
It’s the speech of a Real Democrat who is running against two conservaties. Everyone knows Marco Rubio is the darling of the Tea Party crowd. But don’t forget that Charlie Crist was calling himself a “Reagan conservative” just a few months ago. (Incidentally, we’ve posted a bunch of his recent “I’m a conservative” press releases to our website. Since he’s gone Independent, it seems like some people want to give him a pass on his lifelong history of being a proudly outspoken conservative.
I’ve also included below our latest campaign strategy memo. Please give us feedback on the speech and the memo and we look forward to continuing our conversation with the Netroots.
***
Transcript of Victory Speech
Hello, Florida!
First of all, I just want to thank God for this victory. I’m truly humbled by the people’s goodwill in this great state of Florida. I want to thank all of Florida for beliving, not only in my candidacy, but putting me on the ballot by signature — the first time in the history of this state.
I want to thank everyone that works every day. I want to thank those school bus drivers that I greeted this morning at 4:30 a.m. That know what it means to live paycheck to paycheck. I want to thank them first.
I want to thank our seniors who went out and voted and cast their ballot at 7 a.m. looking for representation. I want to thank all of those individuals, those first time voters, that voted in the last election for the first time that voted in this primary.
I want to thank President Obama. I want to thank President Clinton for coming down and supporting us. Bill Nelson and Alex Sink, who is going to be our next governor of the state of Florida.
To the campaign, to all the volunteers to all the people who kept believing. For all the people when times got rough in this campaign, there were those who counted us out, but you counted us in. Thank you for doing that.
I want to thank my family — my wife, Leslie Meek, my daughter Lauren, my son Kendrick, and my mother, U.S. Congresswoman Carrie Meek.
Ladies and Gentlemen, there are friends that are part of organized labor throughout this state who worked very, very hard. I want to thank them.
I want to be short tonight, because we have so much work to do. There are so many Floridians that are counting on a real leader to be the next United States senator and tonight we’re moving forward.
I always said that I was the David in this race and that if we just kept the faith, and we kept marching on and we kept knocking on doors and we kept making phone calls and we kept putting out yard signs and we kept putting bumper stickers on the back of cars and if we kept listening — if we just kept listening — that we would be victorious on this night and I want to thank every Floridian that cast a ballot in this primary election to make me the Democratic nominee and eventually the next senator from the state of Florida.
I made the case that I am the real Democrat in this race. I also made the case that I have the will and the desire and the energy to pull a double shift to get Florida back to work, to make sure that people have health care, to make sure we protect our environment.
Now ladies and gentlemen, I’m sorry I had to keep you down here waiting for a little while because I had to talk to Maurice Ferre. I want to thank him for a great campaign. He called and wished us well as we continue to move on. I had an opportunity to speak with Jeff Greene. Jeff Greene gave us his blessings and that he looks forward to campaigning with us and I want to thank him for that phone call.
One thing that we have to keep in mind, ladies and gentlmen, that this election is not about those that are running for office, it’s about the people of this state and we have to continue to keep that focus for people that are in rural Florida or those that are in urban Florida. All the way from Northwest Florida, Northeast Florida, Central Florida, South Florida, Southwest Florida, Southeast Florida will be represented all the way down to the southernmost point of Key West, ladies and gentlemen, I am here, I am prepared to work for every vote in the state of Florida be it Democrat, Republican or Independent because I know what it means to punch in and punch out every day.
I think if we learned anything in this campaign, it’s that the people of this state had the opportunity to see the muddiness of politics. Well let me tell you something, ladies and gentlemen, when you are dealing with the muddiness of life, you can count on me. I will not bail out on you, I will not leave you behind and I will not start changing on you when you need me because the people of the state of Florida stood with me tonight, ladies and gentlemen, through 26 million plus dollars being spent against us. We made history in this state because the state of Florida wass not for sale, will not be for sale and we will stand up and continue this effort.
Now let’s talk about the business.
I want to mention a few things because I want you to leave here and I want you to know what we stand for. Now this election is going to be about where the candidates stand. I am running against two conservative candidates for the United States senate that have similar records. I think it’s very important that everyone here in this room know by electing me to be your next United States senator, I will be the only candidate in this race that was against offshore oil drilling before and after the spill and will make sure to protect Florida’s environment.
I will be the only candidate, ladies and gentlemen, the only Democratic candidate, ladies and gentlmen, that has always, consistently been against the privatization of Social Security.
I will be the only candidate, ladies and gentlemen, that stood in their for Justice Sotomayor. When she was up for her nomination, I stood up and said that she was the right selection and that she would be an outstanding Supreme Court Justice.
I am the only candidate, and will be the only candidate, that will stand up for a woman’s right to choose what happens to her body.
I will be the only candidate, ladies and gentlemen, that fought, legislated and will continue to work for comprehensive health care for every American and every Floridian.
I will be the only candidate, ladies and gentlemen, that’s willing to pull back on the top 1% of the Bush tax cuts and give more tax cuts to the middle class and small businesses.
And when you make me your next United States senator, I will stand up to make sure that you continue to see what you’re seeing now — our men and women coming back home to their families from Iraq and Afghanistan. It is important to military families that we reuinite them and continue to hunt for those that harmed our country.
I think it’s also important, ladies and gentlemen, to know that anything that came out of this primary — it showed that this campaign has the strength, the integrity, the will and the desire to win this office. And I may not beat Goliath before November 2, but when November 2 gets here, ladies and gentlement, I’m going to still going to be comfortable playing David, because we know when the polls close, ladies and gentlemen, in the great state of Florida, on November 2, that I will be the next Senator from this state.
I want you to know that my campaign is based on the struggle of Floridians. My campaign is based on making sure that children have someone who is going to fight for them.
And I think what helped Floridians make a decision in this election was the fact that I had a real Florida story. I grew up in here Florida. My mother was born here in Florida. My children born here in Florida. Grew up in the public school system. Diagnosed with dyslexia in the third grade. Kept plowing on. Single mother, three children, divorced twice, worked at the junior college, said she wanted to represent her community. That’s where I come from.
Attended Florida A&M University. Became a state trooper. Changed car tires in this state. Did the things I had to do to understand the needs of people. Served as a skycap at the airport, service worker in this state. Went on to serve this state in the state legislature, went on to serve this state in Congress. Some people call it career politicians, I call it public service.
So Florida, as we march on, as we continue to knock on doors, as we continue to listen, as we continue to count all 67 counties in, we will win in November. And when you leave here tonight, I want you to know that hope marches on. Believe isn’t just a slogan. And the dream endures. Thank you so very much Florida.
God bless you. Thank you. I love you. I’d love, Florida, to be your next United States senator. God bless America
***
Campaign Strategy Memo
From: Abe Dyk, Campaign Manager
To: Interested Parties
Date: August 25, 2010
Re: General Election
Yesterday, Kendrick Meek earned the right to face two lifelong conservatives in Florida’s U.S. Senate race. Millions spent on negative attacks did not stop everyday people from casting their ballots for Kendrick. He won on the strength of his character, his grassroots supporters, and his ideas – not his checkbook. Kendrick proved that he can never be counted out against a better-funded opponent even in the general election.
MEEK HAS THE MOMENTUM
Kendrick being outspent seven-to-one once Jeff Greene got into the race could not match the grassroots engine that has fueled his campaign. The same people that went to work to put Kendrick on the ballot by petition – unprecedented for a statewide candidate in Florida – took him over the finish line in the primary.
Oftentimes after winning primaries, candidates need to shift their message and run a different campaign in the general election. However, Kendrick is not going to shift his message at all. In a three-way race, Kendrick is still the only Real Democrat, and the only candidate willing to fight for the middle class against the special interests.
In Florida, where Democratic registrations outpace Republicans by more than 600,000, and independents are likely to make up 18% of the electorate, this race will be won by turning out the same Democratic base that just entrusted Kendrick with the party’s nomination.
President Obama remains extremely popular with Democrats – 84% job approval in the latest Quinnipiac poll – and Kendrick is the only candidate willing to stand with Obama to get Americans back to work, invest in future generations, and get Florida moving forward. President Obama has, in turn, committed to electing Kendrick as Florida’s next U.S. Senator, as has President Bill Clinton.
Kendrick has the support of the state party apparatus, and unlike the Republican establishment that spent all of its funds bolstering Attorney General Bill McCollum’s gubernatorial bid, the Democratic Party has the resources to compete statewide. Conversely, Crist has no party apparatus, having abandoned the Republican Party – but not his conservative values – for political gain.
Floridians – especially Democrats in Florida – know exactly what they are going to get by voting for Kendrick Meek for U.S. Senate.
CRIST CANNOT WIN
The math does not add up for Florida’s elected Republican Governor.
With universal name recognition, Charlie Crist abandoned his Republican primary fight against Marco Rubio. Only 39% of Democrats supported Crist at a time when Kendrick was completely unknown beyond his district, a number that will be a high-water mark for him running against a Real Democrat.
With Republicans coalescing around a Tea Party candidate, and Democrats with Kendrick, the math does not exist to elect Charlie Crist. With an expected turnout of 43% Democrats and 40% Republicans, Kendrick needs to win 75% of registered Democrats and just 17% of the registered Independent vote to secure 35% of the vote total. 35%-40% is all that is needed to win in a three-way race.
The apparent strength that Crist is currently registering in the polls will not last. Even with all the Independents, Crist cannot win without getting more than 30% of Democrats and Republicans, and it is unlikely either group will support him as he twists and turns his positions over the next 10 weeks. The Charlie Crist sideshow does not have enough of the electorate to result in a victory, and with no state party apparatus, it is only a matter of time before Crist’s campaign begins limping towards the finish line. There are no runoffs in Florida elections, and for Charlie Crist, there may not be any more chances either.
He could not stand up against Rubio, and he will never be able to stand up for Floridians as a U.S. Senator.
THE REAL CHOICE: MEEK OR RUBIO
Once Crist collapses, voters will have a choice between Kendrick Meek and Marco Rubio.
Kendrick is the only candidate who fought against privatizing Social Security and high credit card fees. He is the only candidate who supports a woman’s right to choose and equal pay for equal work. He is the only candidate who will fight to cut taxes for the middle class and seek to repeal the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest 1% of Americans and corporate special interests.
Kendrick won the primary because he is the only candidate that will work for everyday people. He’s done it his entire career. Floridians know they can count on Kendrick, and they are poised to elect another Democrat to the U.S. Senate.
In any event, it’s official: Kande is now off the ballot, and the path has been cleared for Lance Enderle to replace him.
Note: For the backstory on the ongoing saga in Michigan’s 8th Congressional District, see this diary from August 1st. Much more has happened since then, as you’re about to see…
This is bigger than just the ongoing saga of MI-08; this is about the Michigan Secretary of State’s office playing games with the election process!
I just received the following press release, issued by the Democratic Congressional Committee of Michigan’s 8th District:
For Immediate Release
Contact: Judy Daubenmier, 734-612-7137
EAST LANSING – A special committee of the 8th District stands ready to appoint Lance Enderle as the Democratic nominee for the 8th Congressional District, but Republican Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land is putting up a roadblock.
Lance Enderle, a teacher from Clinton County, appeared before the special committee on Wednesday night and discussed his plans for a campaign to defeat Republican incumbent Mike Rogers in November. The committee recommended that Democrats in the 8th Congressional District endorse Enderle at their caucus on Saturday during the Michigan Democratic Party convention at Cobo Hall in Detroit.
Committee members are prepared to appoint him as the nominee but learned that Land has refused to accept that the party’s previous nominee, Kande Ngalamulume, has moved out of state, even though she directed Ingham County officials to remove him from the voter rolls. Ngalamulume has registered to vote in Pennsylvania and submitted to Michigan Democratic Party Chair Mark Brewer a copy of his Pennsylvania voter registration receipt along with a notarized letter indicating that he has changed his permanent residency to Pennsylvania.
A copy of the letter was hand-delivered to the Bureau of Elections on Monday by the Michigan Democratic Party. State party Chair Mark Brewer informed the Bureau of Elections that the nomination was vacant and the Michigan Democratic Party would move promptly to fill the vacancy.
Under Michigan law, when a candidate for Congress moves out of state after the primary, the party may pick a replacement candidate to appear on the November ballot. The law provides that a committee made up of the chairs, secretaries and treasurers of each of the counties in the congressional district make the selection at a meeting convened by the secretary of the party’s state central committee. Nowhere does the law say that the party must wait for the secretary of state to declare a vacancy or remove a candidate’s name.
Committee members said since Ngalamulume was allowed to register to vote in Pennsylvania it is clear that he has moved out of Michigan and that Land is merely fabricating her own hurdles to try to keep a viable Democratic candidate off the ballot.
Land is term-limited and Democrats this weekend plan to nominate Jocelyn Benson, a Wayne State University professor of election law, as their candidate to replace her. Unlike the highly partisan Land, Benson has pledged to take an “Oath of Nonpartisanship” promising to be neutral and non-partisan in administering election laws.
The section of Michigan law in question says that once the party selects a replacement candidate, the candidate’s name “shall” be printed on the general election ballot and does not give Land authority to try to block the party’s action. The law states: “The name of the candidate so selected shall be certified immediately by the secretary of the state central committee to the secretary of state and to the board of election commissioners for each county, whose duty it is to prepare the official ballots; and said board shall cause to be printed or placed upon such ballots, in the proper place, the name of the candidate so selected and certified to fill such vacancy.”
(Paid for by the Eighth Democratic Congressional District Committee, P. O. Box 4278, East Lansing, MI 48826)
In addition, I’m working on additional updates/material as I type this, but needed to get this out there ASAP. Every minute is literally of the essence.
Note: I’ve added a scan of the letter in question. As you can see, it was notarized in Pennsylvania on August 17. The text of it reads:
“Pursuant to your request, here is my formal letter of withdrawal from the race for U.S. Congress in Michigan’s 8th District.
I have also taken steps to move my permanent residency back to Pennsylvania, where I am now registered to vote. It is my understanding that these actions should allow you and other officials to remove my name on the November ballot with a replacement candidate. I extend my warmest congratulations and best wishes to the eventual nominee.
All the best to you and everyone in the 8th District.
Sincerely,
[signed] Kande Ngalamulume
Included with the notarized letter declaring his change of residency, his change of voter registration and his explicit request to have himself removed from the November ballot, the letter also included a scan of the receipt he received from his voter registration in Delaware County, Pennsylvania on August 10, 2010.
Finally, both documents included a cover letter from the Michigan Democratic State Central Committee in Lansing, Michigan, sent to Chris Thomas, the Director of the Bureau of Elections, and signed by MDP Chair Mark Brewer, specifically requesting that Kande Ngalamulume be removed from the ballot. The cover letter specifies that all three documents were hand delivered to Mr. Thomas at the Treasury Building in Lansing.
Now, there’s two stories going on here:
The first is the backstory of the original Democratic candidate for MI-08, Kande Ngalamulume, who dropped out of the race back in June, after the Primary filing deadline, resulting in his name being the only one on the Primary ballot. OK, that was entirely his doing and his responsibility.
HOWEVER, the current situation is this: The Michigan Secretary of State’s office has now been hand-delivered official, undeniable, verifiable proof that Mr. Ngalamulume a) no longer lives in Michigan; b) is now legally residing in, and registered to vote in Pennsylvania; and c) Has explicitly and without any ambiguity declared his desire to be removed from the November 2010 Congressional Ballot for Michigan’s 8th District.
Ms. Land’s office could, prior to this development, rightly claim that the situation was not her fault nor her responsibility. However, with the 60-day change-of-ballot deadline quickly approaching (the lead time is needed in order to print and distribute absentee ballots), any further delay in removing Mr. Ngalamulume from the ballot–and, simultaneously, any further delay in replacing his name with that of Lance Enderle–is nothing more than pure political posturing and obstruction, denying the 600,000+ people of Michigan’s 8th Congressional District the right to choose an alternative to Mike “Let’s Drill for Oil in the Great Lakes!” Rogers.
Hopefully the SoS office will stop playing games, go ahead and strip Kande off the ballot, and replace him with Lance’s name immediately. With so little time to spare, however, Lance needs your help!
Full disclosure: While I’m working at a substantial discount, I am still being paid. Mostly, however, I’m just upset at the mess caused by Kande’s withdrawl and am trying to help salvage the situation.
• AZ-Sen: Bad news! For John McCain! J.D. Hayworth still hasn’t conceded. He’s still waiting for those late-breaking absentee ballots to help him make up that oh-so-narrow 56-32 margin, apparently.
• CT-Sen: This doesn’t seem like it’ll end well for Linda McMahon, whose stance on WWE has been that it’s harmless soap opera. Harley McNaught, the father of recently-deceased pro wrestler Lance Cade (who died of heart failure at age 29 in the wake of painkiller addiction), is going on the offense against McMahon in response to her comments that she “might have met him once.” McNaught said that he’d been to several functions with his son where they’d met McMahon and she’d known him by name, and also ripped the company’s “Wellness Program,” which he says was more about PR than about helping employees.
• DE-Sen: There’s no third-party fallback option for teabagger Christine O’Donnell, challenging Mike Castle for the GOP Senate nomination. The Constitution Party had nominated O’Donnell for its ballot line, but didn’t even receive a ballot line after its membership dwindled to 287(!) members. (That’s less than something called the “Blue Enigma Party,” which still qualified for the ballot.) O’Donnell still can mount a write-in campaign after losing the primary to Castle (which she already did in the 2006 race after losing the primary to Jan Ting).
• KY-Sen: Our James L. summed this up pithily: “Douche Day Afternoon.” Losing Dem Senate candidate Dan Mongiardo’s latest statement of semi-support for Jack Conway was that Conway was “not the best” but that “he’s a heck of a lot better” than Rand Paul, whose “scare[s him].”
• PA-Sen, PA-Gov (pdf): The newest Franklin & Marshall poll is another one of their choose-your-own-adventure specials, which shows the dimensions of the enthusiasm gap the Dems are facing, especially in the Keystone State. In the Senate race, Pat Toomey leads Joe Sestak 40-31 among likely voters, but only 31-28 among registered voters, which isn’t much different from where we left off with their last general election poll in May. And in the gubernatorial race, it’s similar, with Tom Corbett leading Dan Onorato 38-27 among LVs, but only 29-28 (probably the best showing I’ve seen in a head-to-head in this race) among RVs.
• FL-Gov: With Hayworth and Murkowski already mentioned today, it’s just turning out to be the big day of GOP disunity and sour grapes all around. While figures like Jeb Bush and state party chair John Thrasher have gotten behind Rick Scott without any major hedging, Bill McCollum is continuing his sulk, flat-out not endorsing Scott.
• KY-Gov: The aptly-named Republican Agriculture Commissioner, Richie Farmer (I guess “Rich Farmer” was a little too overly descriptive), is still mulling over a run for Governor in next year’s off-year election against Dem incumbent Steve Beshear, where early polling has shown he’d be competitive. He’s also been linked to a possible Lt. Gov. bid, as running mate to state Senate president David Williams.
• SC-Gov: In another sign that a chunk of the local political establishment prefers Dem Vincent Sheheen to GOPer Nikki Haley, Sheheen just got the endorsement of 30 mayors around South Carolina. Most of these mayors are in nonpartisan elected positions, although one, Greer mayor Rick Danner, said he was a two-time voter for Mark Sanford.
• VT-Gov: Faced with the unenviable task of certifying her own gubernatorial primary loss, SoS Deb Markowitz says that the final certification of the super-close race in Vermont will be done on next Tuesday. All five candidates appeared amicably at a unity rally yesterday, but only shortly after Doug Racine’s campaign manager called Peter Shumlin’s declaration of victory premature, saying to wait until Tuesday. Shumlin currently leads Racine by 192 votes.
• AL-02: Rep. Bobby Bright caused some hyperventilating today when it came out that, in meeting with constituents, had punted on the issue of whether or not he’d be voting for Nancy Pelosi for Speaker next session. He did so by listing a number of reasons why that might not be an issue, including the decidedly morbid “heck, she might even get sick and die.”
• CA-18: I don’t know who looks worse in this situation, Mike Berryhill (the Republican launching an uphill, but generally credible, challenge to Rep. Dennis Cardoza), or his former campaign consultant John Villareal. Apparently they parted ways in unpleasant fashion, as Villareal blasted Berryhill’s campaign as a lost cause… but did it in the form of a somewhat unhinged-sounding, 25-minute long rant posted to YouTube.
• OH-17: Jim Traficant may still yet be able to beam himself back into Congress. He just got an extension from Jennifer Brunner, giving him more time to prove that he did collect enough signatures to qualify for the November ballot as an independent. He previously got bounced for the ballot for not having enough valid signatures.
• OR-05: Hot on the heels of a too-good-to-be-true internal from Scott Bruun giving him a small lead a few days ago, Rep. Kurt Schrader hauled out his own internal from Lake Research giving him a pretty comfortable lead: 46-35. The poll’s from late July, though, so one wonders if there’s a more recent one that he’s not sharing.
• PA-08: The ubiquitous POS is out with an internal poll on behalf of ex-Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick, giving him a 7-point lead (48-41) over Democratic sophomore Rep. Patrick Murphy. Murphy hasn’t been one of the Dems’ top worries in Pennsylvania, but as we’ve seen in recent weeks, the Dem brand in Pennsylvania seems to be waning particularly quickly.
• VA-05: Tom Perriello, in an interesting bit of distancing from national Dems that’s ambiguous enough that it works from both right and left, called for the replacement of Treasury Sec. Timothy Geithner, at a local town hall. He didn’t say who his preferred replacement would be (Robert Reich, anyone?).
• Ads: Lead-off ad of the day is from Alan Grayson in FL-08; the Hotline actually says it makes Grayson look “angelic” and they refer to it as the most positive ad they’ve seen so far from anyone. That Grayson… always zigging when everyone else is zagging. Other Dems out with their first TV ads for themselves today include Kathy Dahlkemper in PA-03, Julie Lassa in WI-07, and Tom Hayhurst in IN-03.
All the GOP ads today are anti-Dem ads being run by third party groups: America’s Future Fund running against Bruce Braley in IA-01, the Heritage Foundation’s lobbying arm against Mike McIntyre in NC-07, and Koch-backed Americans for Prosperity running against Gabrielle Giffords in AZ-08 and a weird two-fer (aimed at the Phoenix market, I guess) attacking both Anne Kirkpatrick and Harry Mitchell in AZ-01 and AZ-05. NWOTSOTB, on any of the ads.
• Rasmussen:
• CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 40%, Meg Whitman (R) 48%
• FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek (D) 21%, Marco Rubio (R) 40%, Charlie Crist (I) 30%
• UT-Gov: Peter Corroon (D) 29%, Gary Herbert (R-inc) 60%
Hmmm, Chet Traylor’s bid in the GOP primary against David Vitter was supposedly powered by unnamed figures in the state’s Republican establishment worried about Vitter’s vulnerability to Dem Charlie Melancon (at the peak of the Brent Furer furor). It looks like that was a miscalculation, as Traylor actually manages to lose to Melancon while Vitter’s numbers against Melancon, while not overwhelming, are pretty stable, continuing PPP’s trend of seeing a race in the 10-point ballpark in Vitter’s favor. Vitter’s approvals among the full electorate are 53/41, although they do concede, by a 44-21 margin, that Vitter is “not a good Christian model.” (Also, amusingly, given the choice between whether the respondents’ daughters should be married to either Vitter or Melancon, 55% chose that their daughter shouldn’t be married to any politician.)
With the Louisiana primary coming up in a few days, these are the more important numbers right now. Former state supreme court justice Chet Traylor’s late-breaking bid against Vitter was very interesting for the first few days, but at this point we might as well just close the book on it: his fundraising never materialized, his “family values” turned out to be as suspect as Vitter’s, and somehow he manages to be upside-down on favorables among GOP voters. (Traylor’s faves among Republicans are 10/30, compared with Vitter’s 78/17.)
It could be the unlikeliest Senate race match-up of the year: teabagging attorney Joe Miller vs. Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams… but we’ll first have to see if Miller is indeed the victor. Since this race is still so unsettled, let’s do a roundup of all the latest news:
The Math: With every precinct reporting, Miller leads Murkowski by 1,668 votes. But there’s the lingering matter of all those absentees, which are still trickling in. Here’s the schedule for counting them:
None of the absentees has been counted. Absentee ballots had to be postmarked by Tuesday but could arrive up to 10 days after the election if mailed in the United States and 15 days if overseas. The Division of Elections will do its first count Aug. 31, with additional counts scheduled for Sept. 3 and Sept. 8.
The Alaska Division of Elections says that “more than” 16,000 absentees were requested, and that 7,600 of them have come back so far, but remember — not all of these ballots will be Republican primary votes. One estimate by Anchorage pollster Dave Dittman says that there are 5,000 GOP absentee ballots outstanding, but I’m not sure how that conclusion was reached, or if that guesstimate accounts for the ballots that have yet to trickle in. (Likely not.) In any event, Murkowski is going to have to win this pile by a large margin in order to come back from the grave.
A Third Party Play?: Murkowski says that it’s “premature” to discuss a third-party run before all the absentees come in, but her camp certainly is not ruling it out. One option is a write-in campaign, but the chances of success are pretty dim:
According to the elections coordinator in the Alaska Department of Elections, Murkowski has until October 28 to file as a write-in, in which case write-in votes for her would be counted if the aggregate total of all write-ins is greater than the number of ballots cast for the first-place candidate, or within the range that would require a recount. In the coordinator’s 14 years, this has never happened in a state race.
Another option would be to commandeer the line of a third-party… say, for instance, the Alaskan Independence Party. The first problem is that the AIP didn’t even bother to nominate a candidate for the general election in the first place, casting doubt on whether it’s legally possible for such a play to be engineered. (Remember, Wally Hickel was famously offered the AIP line after losing the GOP primary for the 1990 gubernatorial election, but he was taking over the ballot spot of a previously-nominated candidate.) In any event, the question is entirely academic, as the chair of the AIP has said that they would “absolutely not” let Murkowski join their ranks.
The best option for Murkowski may be to go Libertarian — that party seems entirely willing to listen to any offer she might make:
If Murkowski loses the primary, there is a possibility that she might able to run on the Libertarian ticket in the November general election. But that would require the Libertarian Senate candidate, David Haase, to agree to step aside, and for the Alaska Libertarian Party to agree to put Murkowski on the ballot.
Alaska Libertarian Party chairman Scott Kohlaas said he was open to the idea and that party leaders were discussing it. “There’s a chance,” Kohlhaas said on Wednesday.
Haase didn’t rule out the idea, saying he’d certainly listen if Murkowski wanted to step into his place.
Scott McAdams, The Anti-Teabagger: First, I encourage you to read this excellent piece by The Mudflats offering a wealth of background on how Joe Miller came from nowhere to force this nail-biter. The piece also has some color on Democrat Scott McAdams, and the details sound pretty good:
Scott McAdams, little known to Alaskans outside the southeast pan-handle, is a popular small town mayor. He runs the city of Sitka and has balanced budgets, focused on education, served on the school board, and has even figured out how to sell water to India. He was a deckhand on a commercial fishing boat all over the state, and is all the kinds of things that Sarah Palin said she was, before the media began to shine a flashlight in all the dark corners. He’s a “real Alaskan” in the style of the politicians of old, before oil was discovered and turned a libertarian blue state reddish. […]
McAdams who unlike Miller, is a fiscally conservative moderate Democrat, has executive experience, was born and raised in Alaska, and has worked with his hands in the fishing industry, suddenly finds himself with an incredible opportunity. One could even say that attorney and Yale Law grad Joe Miller who was born and raised “Outside” is kind of “elite,” while McAdams is all about Alaska, and “real people.”
McAdams called the tea party-backed Miller too extreme for Alaska, in what is sure to be a theme for the Democrats if Miller turns out to be the Republican nominee.
“I invite people who supported Senator Murkowski to please take a look at our campaign. I believe we are the moderate, rational, practical campaign, not the campaign of extreme measures and 19th-century ideology,” McAdams said.
McAdams said Alaskans value federal appropriations to develop infrastructure and don’t buy proposals such as abolishing the federal Department of Education. Miller has said education is a function to be left to states and localities. He’s argued that if the nation does not slash spending, it is headed for a “sovereign debt crisis” that would be worse for Alaska than less federal money.
I like it — he’s sounding the right notes and drawing the appropriate contrasts. And he certainly has a lot of material to work with; just take a gander, if you haven’t already, at Jed L’s DailyKos profile of Miller’s hard-right, anti-choice, anti-government philosophy. Sure, Joe Miller’s resume is impressive on paper (West Point, Yale Law, Magistrate Judge), but that doesn’t paper over crazy ideas.
No Democratic Switcheroos: The Twittering classes were full of speculation yesterday that some kind of deal would be worked out to swap McAdams on the Democratic ticket with ex-Gov. Tony Knowles, a man who has lost two statewide races in Alaska in the past six years. As we mentioned earlier, Knowles put those rumors to bed, saying he’s not at all interested in a run. McAdams, for his part, is standing absolutely firm, and good for him. Also, good on Mark Begich for lining solidly in McAdams’ corner:
But McAdams has the full support of Democrat Mark Begich, who two years ago pulled off his own successful upset of a Republican senator, Ted Stevens. Begich on Wednesday had this to say of McAdams: “I like what I see.”
“Welcome to Alaskan politics. Anything can happen. Everything’s viable,” Begich said. “It doesn’t take a lot of money, but it takes someone who is committed and hardworking, and can run a campaign. So I tell people and I’ve been telling people that this race shouldn’t be discounted out, and has potential.”
FL-Sen: Five Teamster locals, representing union member across the state, endorsed Charlie Crist yesterday. Meanwhile, Marco Rubio is out with a new ad, a positive family bio spot that is about as un-partisan as you can get. The Palm Beach Post suggests Rubio is trying to appear “above the fray” and let Crist and Kendrick Meek go at each other. NWOTSOTB.
FL-Gov: Mark Blumenthal (with assists from Charles Franklin and Harry Enten) has an interesting look at the final five FL-Gov polls, in an attempt to understand why PPP and Susquehanna came closest. (In passing, Blumenthal also points out that the average error in this batch of FL-Sen polls was twice as big as the FL-Gov average, but because several high-profile pollsters “called” the gube race wrong, those polls are getting more attention than the senate polls.)
AZ-03: State Sen. and fifth-place finisher Pamela Gorman, best-known for her ad in which she fires a bunch of guns, says she won’t endorse Ben Quayle (at least not yet), on account of the vileness he spewed on TheDirty.com. Second- and third-place finishers Steve Moak and Jim Waring, however, say they will support Mr. Potatoe-son.
AZ-08: Those GOPers really can’t shut up about how much they want to destroy Social Security, huh? Check out Jesse Kelly, fresh of his teabagger-fueled upset victory:
“We have to fulfill our promises that we’ve made to people who are on it now, because the government has stolen their money their entire lives, while phasing future generations off. You have to get the future generations off or you’re going to go broke,” he said. “Individual accounts is the key to it.”
FL-22: Ron Klein is up with his first ad of the campaign season, a spot attacking GOPer Allen West for failing to pay taxes. I’m glad to see Klein going on the attack, but given how much utterly insane shit has come out of West’s mouth, it feels a little limp to be going after him on IRS liens. Maybe that issue polled better, who knows. NWOTSOTB.
FL-24: Karen Diebel, one of the crazier GOP candidates in a year just chock-full of `em, has gone AWOL in the wake of her narrow loss to state Rep. Sandy Adams. While third-place finisher Craig Miller has endorsed Adams, Diebel hasn’t said a word. With 100% of precincts reporting, she trails by 0.8%. She’d need to get under 0.5% to trigger a recount (unless she can demonstrate fraud), which I suppose is conceivable once absentee ballots are counted. But even if that were to happen, she’d still have to make up a few hundred votes, which seems impossible.
ID-01: Heh. Remember when the RNC gave money to the Idaho GOP to hire two staffers to help out the utterly feeble Raul Labrador? Turns out things haven’t quite played out that way. One of the two staffers has been re-tasked to work on state races. As for the other guy, who knows?
MI-07: Yesterday we mentioned that AFSCME was launching a new ad against Republican Tim Walberg. Well, those guys don’t mess around. The size of the buy? A cool $750K.
ND-AL: Earl Pomeroy is up with his second negative ad in a week, this one attacking GOP Rick Berg on a somewhat unusual issue. Berg apparently promoted a law early last decade which, according to the ad, would allow banks to sell customers’ financial records. The bill was later rejected by voters in a referendum. I call this issue “unusual” because you don’t typically see privacy matters make a big impact on the campaign trail. NWOTSOTB.
VA-02, VA-05: This is nice to see: Sen. Mark Warner is spending some time this recess campaigning for both Glenn Nye and Tom Perriello. It sounds like he just did a fundraiser for Nye yesterday, and has some events on tap with Perriello this weekend. Speaking of Nye, he’s up with his first ad, touting his work in Iraq and how much he enjoys voting against the Democratic Party. Meanwhile, Nye’s opponent, GOPer Scott Rigell, is also up with an ad, attacking Nye for… supporting the Democratic Party. Do you get it yet, dude? They’re going to attack you no matter what, so you might as well sack up and do the right thing. No word on the size of either buy.
Unions: The AFL-CIO and SEIU, which split apart several years back, are trying to join forces once more. The two labor organizations say that they plan to spend at least $88 million between them this cycle, and perhaps more.
Sometimes it’s not the races you lose, but the races you don’t win. Republicans currently hold a 76-44 advantage in the Florida State House, just 4 seats from a 2/3, veto-overridin’ majority, which could be important with the now distinct possibility of Governor Alex Sink (knock on wood).
This could have, would have, and should have been the year that Democrats finally made up some of that big gap in the State House. Due to term limits, Republicans have tons of open seats to defend, several of which are in vulnerable districts. But alas, the poisonous environment of 2010 will probably prevent a Democratic resurgence in the chamber. In fact, I predict no Dem pickups and two Republican pickups, leaving the chamber 78-42 Republican.
My expectation is that what Florida Democrats were once hoping would be an opportunity for a big gain will end up a stalemate or worse. It’s like a baseball team losing after leaving 20 runners on base, for those of you who love sports metaphors. In any event, here is the rundown:
DEMOCRATIC TARGETS
LEANS REPUBLICAN
HD-26 – OPEN (Patterson) – This is a dead even district, with maybe a slight Republican tilt, in Volusia and Flagler counties, stretching from the north central Atlantic coast inland to the Deland area. Term-limited incumbent Pat Patterson faced only semi-competitive races for re-election. The Democrat is Volusia County Deputy Superintendent of Schools Michael Huth. The Republican is Ormond Beach mayor Fred Costello. Huth has raised $92K to Costello’s $154K. Given the environment, the financial edge, and Costello’s higher profile as mayor of a significant city, Costello gets the edge.
HD-57 – OPEN (Culp) – This is a slightly Republican-leaning district in the Tampa area. Term-limited incumbent Faye Culp faced only semi-competitive races for re-election. The race is a battle between two attorneys: Democrat Stacy Frank and Republican Dana Young. Frank has raised $197K to Young’s $286K. Tea Party candidate Matthew Russell may take votes from Young. Nevertheless, Young has the edge between two strong candidates in this Republican-leaning district.
HD-83 – OPEN (Domino) – This is a dead even district taking in coastal and northern Palm Beach County. Term-limited incumbent Carl Domino has faced very tight re-election battles over the past two cycles. The Democrat is optometrist Mark Marciano. The Republican is businessman Pat Rooney, the brother of Congressman Tom Rooney and a member of the Rooney family of Steelers football fame. Marciano has raised a respectable $115K to Rooney’s $154K. Given Rooney’s financial edge, name recognition, and the environment, the edge goes to Rooney.
HD-87 – OPEN (Hasner) – This is a dead even district, but trending blue, along the coast in Southern Palm Beach County. Term-limited incumbent Adam Hasner has won re-election by impressive double-digit margins in spite of the tough district. The Democrat is Assistant State Attorney Hava Holzhauer. The Republican is Boca Raton City Council Member Bill Hager. Holzhauer has raised $80K to Hager’s $158K. With Hager’s financial advantage and higher profile, I expect him to win.
HD-91 – OPEN (Bogdanoff) – This is a slightly Republican district that runs along the cost of Broward County. Incumbent Ellyn Bogdanoff was elected in 2004, had a semi-competitive race in 2006, and coasted to re-election in 2008. She is vacating the seat to run for State Senate. This is another battle between two attorneys: Democrat Barbra Stern and Republican George Moraitis. Stern has raised $81K to Moraitis’s $114K. Tea Party candidate John Perez could siphon votes away from Moraitis. Nevertheless, the edge goes to Moraitis in a tough environment for Democrats.
HD-119 – OPEN (Zapata) – This is a majority Hispanic district in western Miami-Dade County, which is trending blue but has historically elected Republicans. Term-limited incumbent Juan Zapata is quite popular in the district, and never faced a competitive re-election campaign. The Democrat is Dade County Farm Bureau Executive Director Katie Edwards. The Republican is insurance professional Frank Artiles, who has received much of his financial backing from the insurance industry. Edwards has raised $190K to $154 for Artiles. There are two third party candidates. Nestor Iglesias is the obligatory Tea Party spoiler for Artiles, and Graziella Denny is an Indy candidate about whom I have been unable to find any substantive information. This could be an interesting race, but the national environment and the district’s voting history suggest that Artiles is the favorite.
REPUBLICAN TARGETS
LEANS REPUBLICAN TAKEOVER
HD-11 – Boyd – This is a heavily Republican district in rural North Central Florida. “Blue Dog” style incumbent Debbie Boyd won the district by 0.2% in a 2008 open seat contest over former Columbia County Commissioner Elizabeth Porter. Porter is back for a second run. Boyd has raised $152K to Porter’s $30K, and so she has a strong financial advantage. She will need every penny. I expect the electoral environment in this part of Florida to turn against Boyd emphatically, with Porter winning comfortably. However, Tea Party candidate John Ferentinos may keep Boyd in the game.
TOSS-UP/TILTS REPUBLICAN TAKEOVER
HD-81 – Fetterman – This is a dead even district in the Port St. Lucie area, which is trending blue. Incumbent Adam Fetterman won a 2008 open seat race by 5%. This time around, he faces Gayle Harrell, who represented the district in the State House from 2001 to 2009. Harrell won by large margins in the 2000, 2002, and 2004 elections, but faced a more competitive, 10 point race in 2008. Fetterman has raised $168K to Harrell’s $171K. In this environment, Harrell has a small edge in a race that is otherwise almost completely even in every respect.
LEANS DEMOCRATIC
HD-09 – Rehwinkel-Vasilinda – This is a solidly Democratic district in Tallahassee and the surrounding areas. Incumbent Michelle Rehwinkel-Vasilinda narrowly defeated African-American Florida State University football star Peter Boulware in an open seat contest in 2008. Her opponent this time around is social worker Kirk Headley-Perdue, who in spite of her first name is a woman. Rehwinkel-Vasilinda has raised $137K to Headley-Perdue’s $95K. Rehwinkel-Vasilinda should hold on in this blue district against an opponent who lacks the unique local appeal of Boulware.
HD-51 – Long – This is a dead even district in southwestern Pinellas County. Incumbent Janet Long won this seat in 2006 by less than 1%, and was re-elected in 2008 by a more comfortable 16%. Her opponent is businessman Larry Ahern. Long has raised $160K to Ahern’s $44K. A purported March poll of the district, the details of which were not released, claimed a 7-point lead for Long. Tea Party candidate Victoria Torres should only help Long to hold the seat. Long should have an edge here, and it actually would not surprise me if the mystery poll turned out to be accurate.
HD-52 – Heller – This is a slightly Democratic district in the St. Petersburg area. Incumbent Bill Heller won the seat in 2006 by 8%, and was re-elected in 2008 by 20%. His opponent is businessman Jeff Brandes. Heller has raised $89K to $134K for Brandes. Heller is an institution in the area, and he should win despite a strong effort from Brandes.
HD-69 – Fitzgerald – This is a dead even district based in Sarasota. Fitzgerald was elected in 2006 by 2% and re-elected by only 4% in 2008. His opponent is former Sarasota County Commissioner Ray Pilon, who has lost two races for Sarasota County Sheriff since leaving the County Commission. Fitzgerald has raised $156K to Pilon’s $73K. This could be a tough race, but Fitzgerald should hold on given his financial advantage. He is used to being targeted, and Pilon is not the toughest candidate he has faced.
HD-107 – Garcia – This is a majority Hispanic, Miami area district, which is historically Republican but trending Democratic. Incumbent Luis Garcia was elected to the seat in 2006 by 4%, and was re-elected in 2008 by 10%. His opponent is Gustavo Barreiro, who represented the district in the State House from 1999 through 2007. Mr. Barreiro was very popular while in office, coasting to re-election term after term. However, after leaving office, he was fired from his job at the Department of Juvenile Justice when pornographic images were allegedly found on his computer. Garcia has raised $122K to Barreiro’s $46K. While I would not necessarily consider Barreiro’s porn problem disqualifying, Garcia has a distinct edge in light of both that incident and Garcia’s financial advantage.
