Month: August 2010

Florida House Races (CORRECTED)

Sometimes it’s not the races you lose, but the races you don’t win.  Republicans currently hold a 76-44 advantage in the Florida State House, just 4 seats from a 2/3, veto-overridin’ majority, which could be important with the now distinct possibility of Governor Alex Sink (knock on wood).

This could have, would have, and should have been the year that Democrats finally made up some of that big gap in the State House.  Due to term limits, Republicans have tons of open seats to defend, several of which are in vulnerable districts.  But alas, the poisonous environment of 2010 will probably prevent a Democratic resurgence in the chamber.  In fact, I predict no Dem pickups and two Republican pickups, leaving the chamber 78-42 Republican.

My expectation is that what Florida Democrats were once hoping would be an opportunity for a big gain will end up a stalemate or worse.  It’s like a baseball team losing after leaving 20 runners on base, for those of you who love sports metaphors.  In any event, here is the rundown:

DEMOCRATIC TARGETS

LEANS REPUBLICAN

HD-26 – OPEN (Patterson) – This is a dead even district, with maybe a slight Republican tilt, in Volusia and Flagler counties, stretching from the north central Atlantic coast inland to the Deland area.  Term-limited incumbent Pat Patterson faced only semi-competitive races for re-election.  The Democrat is Volusia County Deputy Superintendent of Schools Michael Huth.  The Republican is Ormond Beach mayor Fred Costello.  Huth has raised $92K to Costello’s $154K.  Given the environment, the financial edge, and Costello’s higher profile as mayor of a significant city, Costello gets the edge.

HD-57 – OPEN (Culp) – This is a slightly Republican-leaning district in the Tampa area.  Term-limited incumbent Faye Culp faced only semi-competitive races for re-election.  The race is a battle between two attorneys: Democrat Stacy Frank and Republican Dana Young.  Frank has raised $197K to Young’s $286K.  Tea Party candidate Matthew Russell may take votes from Young.  Nevertheless, Young has the edge between two strong candidates in this Republican-leaning district.

HD-83 – OPEN (Domino) – This is a dead even district taking in coastal and northern Palm Beach County.  Term-limited incumbent Carl Domino has faced very tight re-election battles over the past two cycles.  The Democrat is optometrist Mark Marciano.  The Republican is businessman Pat Rooney, the brother of Congressman Tom Rooney and a member of the Rooney family of Steelers football fame.  Marciano has raised a respectable $115K to Rooney’s $154K.  Given Rooney’s financial edge, name recognition, and the environment, the edge goes to Rooney.

HD-87 – OPEN (Hasner) – This is a dead even district, but trending blue, along the coast in Southern Palm Beach County.  Term-limited incumbent Adam Hasner has won re-election by impressive double-digit margins in spite of the tough district.  The Democrat is Assistant State Attorney Hava Holzhauer.  The Republican is Boca Raton City Council Member Bill Hager.  Holzhauer has raised $80K to Hager’s $158K.  With Hager’s financial advantage and higher profile, I expect him to win.

HD-91 – OPEN (Bogdanoff) – This is a slightly Republican district that runs along the cost of Broward County.  Incumbent Ellyn Bogdanoff was elected in 2004, had a semi-competitive race in 2006, and coasted to re-election in 2008.  She is vacating the seat to run for State Senate.  This is another battle between two attorneys: Democrat Barbra Stern and Republican George Moraitis.  Stern has raised $81K to Moraitis’s $114K.  Tea Party candidate John Perez could siphon votes away from Moraitis.  Nevertheless, the edge goes to Moraitis in a tough environment for Democrats.

HD-119 – OPEN (Zapata) – This is a majority Hispanic district in western Miami-Dade County, which is trending blue but has historically elected Republicans.  Term-limited incumbent Juan Zapata is quite popular in the district, and never faced a competitive re-election campaign.  The Democrat is Dade County Farm Bureau Executive Director Katie Edwards.  The Republican is insurance professional Frank Artiles, who has received much of his financial backing from the insurance industry.  Edwards has raised $190K to $154 for Artiles.  There are two third party candidates.  Nestor Iglesias is the obligatory Tea Party spoiler for Artiles, and Graziella Denny is an Indy candidate about whom I have been unable to find any substantive information.  This could be an interesting race, but the national environment and the district’s voting history suggest that Artiles is the favorite.

REPUBLICAN TARGETS

LEANS REPUBLICAN TAKEOVER

HD-11 – Boyd – This is a heavily Republican district in rural North Central Florida.  “Blue Dog” style incumbent Debbie Boyd won the district by 0.2% in a 2008 open seat contest over former Columbia County Commissioner Elizabeth Porter.  Porter is back for a second run.  Boyd has raised $152K to Porter’s $30K, and so she has a strong financial advantage.  She will need every penny.  I expect the electoral environment in this part of Florida to turn against Boyd emphatically, with Porter winning comfortably.  However, Tea Party candidate John Ferentinos may keep Boyd in the game.

TOSS-UP/TILTS REPUBLICAN TAKEOVER

HD-81 – Fetterman – This is a dead even district in the Port St. Lucie area, which is trending blue.  Incumbent Adam Fetterman won a 2008 open seat race by 5%.  This time around, he faces Gayle Harrell, who represented the district in the State House from 2001 to 2009.  Harrell won by large margins in the 2000, 2002, and 2004 elections, but faced a more competitive, 10 point race in 2008.  Fetterman has raised $168K to Harrell’s $171K.  In this environment, Harrell has a small edge in a race that is otherwise almost completely even in every respect.  

LEANS DEMOCRATIC

HD-09 – Rehwinkel-Vasilinda – This is a solidly Democratic district in Tallahassee and the surrounding areas.  Incumbent Michelle Rehwinkel-Vasilinda narrowly defeated African-American Florida State University football star Peter Boulware in an open seat contest in 2008.  Her opponent this time around is social worker Kirk Headley-Perdue, who in spite of her first name is a woman.  Rehwinkel-Vasilinda has raised $137K to Headley-Perdue’s $95K.  Rehwinkel-Vasilinda should hold on in this blue district against an opponent who lacks the unique local appeal of Boulware.

HD-51 – Long – This is a dead even district in southwestern Pinellas County.  Incumbent Janet Long won this seat in 2006 by less than 1%, and was re-elected in 2008 by a more comfortable 16%.  Her opponent is businessman Larry Ahern.  Long has raised $160K to Ahern’s $44K.  A purported March poll of the district, the details of which were not released, claimed a 7-point lead for Long.  Tea Party candidate Victoria Torres should only help Long to hold the seat.  Long should have an edge here, and it actually would not surprise me if the mystery poll turned out to be accurate.

HD-52 – Heller – This is a slightly Democratic district in the St. Petersburg area.  Incumbent Bill Heller won the seat in 2006 by 8%, and was re-elected in 2008 by 20%.  His opponent is businessman Jeff Brandes.  Heller has raised $89K to $134K for Brandes.  Heller is an institution in the area, and he should win despite a strong effort from Brandes.  

HD-69 – Fitzgerald – This is a dead even district based in Sarasota.  Fitzgerald was elected in 2006 by 2% and re-elected by only 4% in 2008.  His opponent is former Sarasota County Commissioner Ray Pilon, who has lost two races for Sarasota County Sheriff since leaving the County Commission.  Fitzgerald has raised $156K to Pilon’s $73K.  This could be a tough race, but Fitzgerald should hold on given his financial advantage.  He is used to being targeted, and Pilon is not the toughest candidate he has faced.

HD-107 – Garcia – This is a majority Hispanic, Miami area district, which is historically Republican but trending Democratic.  Incumbent Luis Garcia was elected to the seat in 2006 by 4%, and was re-elected in 2008 by 10%.  His opponent is Gustavo Barreiro, who represented the district in the State House from 1999 through 2007.  Mr. Barreiro was very popular while in office, coasting to re-election term after term.  However, after leaving office, he was fired from his job at the Department of Juvenile Justice when pornographic images were allegedly found on his computer.  Garcia has raised $122K to Barreiro’s $46K.  While I would not necessarily consider Barreiro’s porn problem disqualifying, Garcia has a distinct edge in light of both that incident and Garcia’s financial advantage.

HI-Gov: Abercrombie Leads Hannemann by 5; Dems Lead Aiona by Double Digits

Ward Research for the Honolulu Star-Advertiser/Hawaii News Now (8/10-17, likely voters, 4/23-28 in parens):

Neil Abercrombie (D): 49 (36)

Mufi Hannemann (D): 44 (32)

Undecided: 8 (21)

(MoE: ±4.8%)

General election numbers:

Neil Abercrombie (D): 53 (49)

Duke Aiona (R): 41 (35)

Undecided: 6 (16)

Mufi Hannemann (D): 54 (48)

Duke Aiona (R): 37 (35)

Undecided: 9 (17)

(MoE: ±4.0%)

This one’s been sitting on our shelf for a couple of days, so now’s a good time to clear the decks before it starts to collect dust. Note that Ward Research has shifted away from their unusual approach in sampling that they deployed back in May and gone for a more conventional sample.

Favorable ratings for all three of these guys are pretty even: Aiona’s at 57-31, Abercrombie’s at 57-36, and Hannemann’s at 55-38. In the general election, both Democrats lose independents to Aiona by varying degrees (Abercrombie by 41-49 and Hannemann by 32-52) and aren’t holding onto Democrats very strongly (Hannemann leads among Dems by 72-21 and Abercrombie leads by 71-24). The problem remains, though, that there are just way more Democrats than Republicans in Hawaii. Aiona has a shot, but he’ll probably need the Democratic primary to get a bit nastier first.

Redistricting Pennsylvania: 14D-4R

Here is my first attempt at redistricting Pennsylvania. This one will be much better.

Chris Carney, Tim Holden, Jason Altmire, Kathy Dahlkemper, and Mark Critz are all Democratic Congressmen representing districts that Obama lost. I’m going to fix that. This plan creates 14 Congressional districts (out of 18) where the Democrats are favored to win. It preserves communities of interest. It looks much cleaner and less gerrymandered than the current map. And it has a VRA district that’s the most Democratic district in America.



Click for a larger map

1st District Bob Brady (D)

East Philadelphia (yellow)

New 70%O 29%M Old 88%O 12%M

63% White, 11% Black, 17% Hispanic, 7% Asian

It’s a big drop from 88% to 70% but he’s still safe.

2nd District Chaka Fattah (D)

West Philadelphia (dark blue)

New 96%O 4%M Old 90%O 10%M

13% White, 75% Black, 6% Hispanic, 4% Asian

Compare the demographics of districts 1 and 2, and then notice that what separates them is mostly a single straight line. That’s how segregated Philadelphia is. This is the most Democratic district in the country. Since Pennsylvania has enough votes to spare, it should compete for that honor.

3rd District Brian Lentz (D)

Delaware County, southern Chester County (brown)

New 58%O 41%M Old 56%O 43%M

75% White, 16% Black, 4% Hispanic, 4% Asian

It gets all of Delaware County, including the black parts currently in PA-1. This makes it 2 points more Democratic.

4th District Allyson Schwartz (D)

Montgomery County (green)

New 62%O 37%M Old 59%O 41%M

80% White, 9% Black, 3% Hispanic, 6% Asian

Most of Montgomery County is now one solid compact district, and it’s safe Dem.

5th District Patrick Murphy (D)

Bucks County (orange)

New 54%O 45%M Old 54%O 45%M

88% White, 4% Black, 3% Hispanic, 4% Asian

It’s a tiny bit more Democratic than it was before. If you keep all of Bucks County in one district then there’s not much you can do.

6th District Jim Gerlach (R) or Manan Trivedi (D)

West Chester, Coatesville, Reading (peach)

New 55%O 44%M Old 58%O 41%M

81% White, 6% Black, 10% Hispanic, 3% Asian

If Jim Gerlach gets reelected this year then this plan won’t work. If he keeps winning 52% of the vote in his district then he’ll win a safe 55% of the vote in a district that’s 3% more Republican. The only way to dislodge him will be to put some lower Montgomery County in this district and then put a lot of Berks County in Allyson Schwartz’s district. It will be ugly and un-communities-of-interest-ish and no one wants that. However if Trivedi wins this year (and I think he will) then he should be able to hold a 55% Obama district that gets more Democratic every year and is centered around his home in Berks County.

7th District Charlie Dent (R)

Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton (pale blue)

New 57%O 42%M Old 56%O 43%M

79% White, 5% Black, 12% Hispanic, 2% Asian

At 57% Obama it will have to go Democratic eventually. This counts towards one of the 14 D’s.

8th District Tim Holden (D) vs Paul Kanjorski (D)

Wilkes-Barre, Pottsville, Stroudsburg (lime green)

New 53%O 45%M Old 57%O 42%M

88% White, 4% Black, 6% Hispanic, 1% Asian

Obama won a 50% plurality in this part of Schuylkill County and he got 56% of Luzerne. It’s not the best at communities of interest. It has a liberal city (Wilkes-Barre), rich liberal rural area (Monroe Co), poor rural barely-Democratic areas (Carbon, Schuylkill, rest of Luzerne Co) and conservative suburbs (Northampton and Lehigh Co). If Kanjorski beats Barletta this year then it’s worth taking our chances on a 53% Obama district, especially with Monroe County which is quickly getting more populous and more Democratic. If Barletta wins then a 14-4 plan goes out the window, and instead Barletta gets a more Republican version of this district, and Carney gets a safe Scranton and Wilkes-Barre district.

9th District Chris Carney (D)

Scranton, State College, Northern Tier (pink)

New 52%O 46%M Old 45%O 54%M

93% White, 2% Black, 3% Hispanic, 2% Asian

Carney gets a 52% Obama district. I’m sure he’ll appreciate that as he drives 300 miles to a townhall in Warren. It has 2 different centers of population, Scranton and State College, but so what, lots of congressional districts have 2 different centers of population (right?). Carney is the second biggest winner from this plan.

10th District Glenn Thompson (R)

Williamsport, Bloomsburg, Lebanon (cyan)

New 41%O 58%M Old 44%O 55%M

93% White, 3% Black, 3% Hispanic, 1% Asian

This is the first of 4 Republican districts. It’s the only one with any chance of going Democratic within the decade. Maybe it’s 10 years behind NY-20 (a comparable rural northern district) and will trend Democratic.

11th District Todd Platts (R)

Lancaster County, York County, Adams County (blue-purple)

New 37%O 62%M Old 43%O 56%M

94% White, 2% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

This district is as Republican as the current PA-19 was 10 years ago. This is the smallest (densest) Republican district. It is trending Democratic, but not fast enough for a Democrat to win it within the next decade.

12th District open

Lancaster, York, Harrisburg (gray)

New 54%O 45%M

76% White, 11% Black, 9% Hispanic, 2% Asian

Obama won each of the 3 county fragments and narrowly lost the Cumberland part. Since we can make a Democratic district out of the 3 mid-state cities and their suburbs, we should.

13th District Bill Shuster (R)

Chambersburg, Bedford, Altoona (turquoise)

New 34%O 64%M Old 35%O 63%M

95% White, 2% Black, 1% Hispanic, 1% Asian

Definitely the most Republican district in the Northeast, maybe one of the 20 most Republican districts in the country. And it no longer reaches west to suck up Democratic votes in Fayette and Indiana counties.

14th District Mark Critz (D)

Washington, Uniontown, Johnstown (red)

New 50%O 49%M Old 49%O 50%M

93% White, 4% Black, 1% Hispanic, 1% Asian

It’s a thicker, less gerrymandered-looking version of the Critz district. It has the least % Obama of all 14 Democratic districts. Obama only won a 50% plurality, but as you know, this area is more Democratic at the local level than the presidential level. Obama won the Beaver, Washington, Indiana, and Clearfield parts of this district. Out of the 14, I think this is the district that is most likely to go Republican within the next decade.

15th District Mike Doyle (D)

Pittsburgh, Braddock, McKeesport (purple)

New 56%O 44%M Old 70%O 29%M

86% White, 8% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

In order to protect 4 incumbents in Western PA Mike Doyle had to take one for the team. Pittsburgh gets spread between 2 districts. Still, at 56% Obama, and stronger at the local level, it shouldn’t be a problem for Doyle or any Democrat who succeeds him.

16th District Jason Altmire (D)

Pittsburgh, Ross, Lower Burrell (green)

New 55%O 44%M Old 44%O 55%M

80% White, 15% Black, 1% Hispanic, 2% Asian

By losing Butler County and gaining half of Pittsburgh, Altmire is the biggest winner from this redistricting plan. Hopefully Altmire is adaptable, and this district will allow him (or force him) to vote more liberally.

17th District Tim Murphy (R)

Greensburg, Butler, Punxsutawney (yellow)

New 38%O 61%M Old 44%O 55%M

97% White, 1% Black, 1% Hispanic, 1% Asian

It doesn’t look like Tim Murphy’s old district, but 23% of it overlaps with his old district. After putting anything remotely Democratic in a Democratic district, this is what you have leftover.

18th District Kathy Dahlkemper (D)

Erie, Hermitage, New Castle (blue)

New 52%O 47%M Old 49%O 49%M

91% White, 5% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

This is about the most Democratic possible compact northwestern district. As Mercer, Lawrence and Beaver trend Republican, Erie is trending more Democratic, so that should help the district stay Democratic.

AK-Sen: Murkowski Makes Up a Bit of Ground, McAdams Staying Put (Update: Knowles Not Interested)

The latest count:


















438 of 438 Precincts Reporting
Candidate Votes Percent
Lisa Murkowski 45,359 49.10%
Joe Miller 47,027 50.90%

Seven more precincts have been counted, leaving just two precincts (and a load of absentees) outstanding, and Murkowski has cut the deficit to 1,492 votes from around the 2,000 mark. That gives the Murkowski camp a bit of hope, however faint, that the absentees could be enough to tip this thing back to her.

If Miller ends up winning and Murkowski wants to explore her third-party options, well, it seems that it would have to be Libertarian or bust:

Alaska Division of Elections Director Gail Fenumiai told me it’s too late for Murkowski to file to have her name appear on the ballot as an independent, so that would need to be a write-in effort. There is a Libertarian candidate in the race, Frederick Haase, who could choose to step down. The Libertarian Party could then select a replacement for him on the ballot.

There is no other third party candidate in the U.S. Senate race, so Libertarian would be the only option for Murkowski to join a new party for a run.

And as for Democratic nominee (and Sitka mayor) Scott McAdams, he announced today on a conference call organized by the Alaska Democratic Party that he will not be stepping aside for another candidate.

UPDATE: 100% is now in, and Miller netted a couple hundred extra votes. Also, we can put the Tony Knowles rumors to bed:

Knowles, however, told POLITICO Wednesday that he’s not interested in running for Senate again.

“I do not want to run for the office of Senate again,” said Knowles, who lost to Murkowski by a slim margin in her first bid for a full term in 2004. She had been appointed to the seat in 2002 by her father, then-GOP Gov. Frank Murkowski, a move that generated a considerable amount of controversy at the time.

“All of the deadlines are passed. That was a decision that had to be made by the 1st of June,” Knowles said. “But am I interested in running? No.”

SSP Daily Digest: 8/25 (Afternoon Edition)

• AK-Sen: I’ve got plenty of hearsay and conjecture. Those are kinds of evidence. (Ah, Lionel Hutz, always good for a quote.) Anyway, there’s lots of those kinds of evidence burning up the Twittersphere lately: maybe most significantly, the rumor that Alaska Dems are looking into getting Scott McAdams to stand down and inserting ex-Gov. Tony Knowles (the 2004 loser against Murkowski) to run in his place. Under state law, McAdams would have until 48 days before election day to drop out, but the wisdom of such a move seem uncertain, as McAdams is at least a fresh face and Knowles has two-time-loser taint. Also out there: that Lisa Murkowski is looking into some sort of independent run, which would probably have to take write-in form (although Taniel points out major practical problems with that). One other very weird alternative mentioned for Murkowski: commandeering the secessionist Alaska Independence Party. UPDATE: The Alaska state Dem party is about to hold a conference call with McAdams in which he lays out a path to victory, which certainly suggests that they aren’t abandoning him.

• NV-Sen: Is Sharron Angle following Michele Bachmann down that dark and winding path to… well, she’s already in Crazy Town, so whatever’s around the next bend beyond that. In an interview with a right-wing talk show host Bill Manders last year, Angle agreed with Manders that there were “domestic enemies” “in the walls of the Senate and the Congress.”

• WI-Sen: Here’s one more installment in the ongoing story of teabaggers adopting the “government money for me, not for thee” line of argumentation (a la Clint Didier and Stephen Fincher’s long history of happily accepting farm subsidies), disregarding the jaw-dropping hypocrisy that goes with it. It’s been revealed that Ron Johnson’s company, Paccur, got a $2.5 million government loan to pay for a 40,000 square foot expansion to its facilities. The revelation comes about a week after he said in an interview: “I have never lobbied for some special treatment or for a government payment… When you subsidize things…it doesn’t work through the free market system very well.”

• MD-Gov: Here’s a poll showing better-than-usual results for incumbent Dem governor Martin O’Malley, locked in a rematch battle with ex-Gov. Bob Ehrlich. The OpinionWorks poll, on behalf of a non-profit called Center Maryland, gives O’Malley a 47-41 lead over Ehrlich, and also gives O’Malley a respectable 49/39 approval.

• MI-Gov: Tough nerd and GOP gubernatorial nominee Rick Snyder picked a running mate: state Rep. Brian Calley, a 33-year-old who helps Snyder fill his political-inexperience and social-conservative gaps. One wrinkle: Calley was already the GOP nominee for a state Senate seat, so it’s unclear how filling that vacancy will now play out. Dem nominee Virg Bernero will also need to pick a running mate ahead of this weekend’s nominating convention.

• NY-St. Sen.: Campaign ads in local newspapers in state Senate races are usually a little too down in the weeds for even SSP, but take a look at this amazingly thorough anti-Greg Ball demolition derby run by a group called “Republicans for Truth” as we approach the GOP primary in open SD-40 in New York. Remember, Ball is the wacko we could have been running against in NY-19 if Nan Hayworth hadn’t priced him out.

• Ads: We’re awash in new ads today (as I’m sure we will be every day until November), with the biggest-ticket one seeming to be a new anti-Joe Sestak ad in PA-Sen from Rove front-group American Crossroads. The even more mysterious Americans for Job Security are also wading into MO-Sen, launching an anti-Robin Carnahan radio ad. TV spots are also up in various House races: in FL-22 for Allen West, in KY-06 for Andy Barr, in TX-17 for Bill Flores, and in AZ-08 for Gabby Giffords. NWOTSOTB, in all cases.

• Blogosphere: Congratulations to friend-of-the-site Nate Silver, whose little blog called 538.com has completed its ascendancy, getting relaunched today as part of the New York Times’ online operations.

• History: New Orleans has a particularly fascinating and byzantine political history; with the LA-02 primary fast approaching, here’s an interesting long article on the rise (and potential decline) of African-American political power in the Big Easy.

• Rasmussen:

• CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 44%, Carly Fiorina (R) 43%

• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 42%, Mark Kirk (R) 40%

• OR-Sen: Ron Wyden (D-inc) 56%, Jim Huffman (R) 36%

• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 46%, Ron Johnson (R) 47%

• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 47%, David Westlake (R) 40%

AK, AZ, FL, OK, and VT Primary Wrapup

• Alaska: Last night’s biggest story wound up being the Alaska GOP Senate primary, where Lisa Murkowski is on track to being the second sitting Senator to get bounced by the tea partiers, via the previously little-known Joe Miller. Miller leads Murkowski by 2,000 votes (51-49), although with about a dozen precincts outstanding and then at least 7,600 absentee ballots to be counted, we won’t know anything for sure until possibly Sep. 8. With the outcome uncertain, Murkowski isn’t conceding, but is already sounding sour-grapesy, sending some bad vibes in the direction of Miller-endorsing Sarah Palin. The winner will face off against Sitka mayor Scott McAdams, the Dem winner who suddenly finds himself in a potentially competitive race. (The DSCC is already out with a press release this morning hitting Miller’s extremism, but they haven’t said anything about McAdams yet.)

Also in the Last Frontier, the gubernatorial race shaped up as expected, with incumbent GOPer Sean Parnell (who got promoted to the job when Palin did the resigny-quitty thing) facing off against former Dem state House minority leader Ethan Berkowitz. Both won their primaries with smaller than expected numbers, though (with each receiving 49% of the vote).

• Arizona: Good news! For John McCain! He won his primary against J.D. Hayworth by a crushing margin — 56-32 — and all for the low, low cost of only his very soul (and tens of millions of dollars). He’ll face off against Rodney Glassman in the Senate primary; the former Tucson vice-mayor won a crowded Dem field with 35% of the vote.

There was one lone surprise among the four contested GOP House primaries, and that was in AZ-08, where 31-year-old teabagging veteran Jesse Kelly upset former state Sen. (and establishment pick) Jonathan Paton, 49-41. Maybe the result in AZ-03 was a surprise too, given the underwhelming last few weeks of his campaign, but money and family name rec managed to push Ben Quayle to a dazzling 23% victory in a 10-person field. Democratic opponent Jon Hulburd welcomed Quayle to the field in withering terms:

This election is now between Jon Hulburd and Brock Landers. It’s between a young man who fabricated a family, degraded women, and then tried to lie about it, and a small businessman and father of five who has been dedicated to his community…

In AZ-01, as expected, the victor was dentist Paul Gosar (at 31%), and in AZ-05, former Maricopa Co. Treasurer David Schweikert gets his rematch against Rep. Harry Mitchell (winning with 39%).

• Florida: For Florida Democrats, the GOP gubernatorial primary was truly the Best of Both Worlds (sorry, I just can’t get off the Peter Garrett thing). They could face off against a vociferously evil, Medicare-defrauding centimillionaire, or against an unpalatable dweeb with a long track record of losing elections, both of whom had turned each other radioactive with unprecedented levels of saturation negative advertising. In the end, the creepy rich guy won (spending $2.70 $84 per vote en route to a 46-43 win), advancing in thoroughly pre-defined form to face Democrat Alex Sink, left unscathed from her primary. McCollum has conceded without endorsing Scott, amidst the planned “unity rally” having already been scrapped several days in advance of the primary.

The Democrats own version of the GOP primary, in their Senate primary, turned out to not be so momentous; Kendrick Meek beat hard-partying billionaire Jeff Greene 57-31, and will try to wade into the general election battle between Charlie Crist (strangely still mum on how he’d caucus) and Marco Rubio. The most interesting House primary in the state was also one of the few Dem ones: Allen Boyd barely held off Al Lawson in a primary challenge from the left-ish in FL-02, winning 51-49 as Lawson rallied African-American voters. He’ll face GOPer Steve Southerland in November. The FL-17 primary, to replace Kendrick Meek, was a relatively easy win for state Sen. Frederica Wilson, who got 35% to take over this safe blue seat. (Those sad over Regina Thomas’s loss in GA-12 can at least take some comfort in that Wilson will be bringing her own crazy hat collection with her to the House.)

The tightest GOP House primary was in FL-24, where state Rep. Sandy Adams, basically that field’s third wheel, made her way through the wreckage left by Craig Miller and Karen Diebel’s attacks on each other to win with 30% of the vote, by a 560-vote margin (no AP call and no concession, though); Adams faces freshman Rep. Suzanne Kosmas. Daniel Webster won with 40% of the vote in the GOP primary in FL-08, for the right to face Rep. Alan Grayson in what’s likely to be the nation’s most over-the-top House race. And in FL-25, state Rep. David Rivera won the GOP primary in this open seat race with 62% despite late-breaking allegations of, well, everything; he’ll face Dem Joe Garcia.

• Oklahoma: In the fourth case (along with AZ-08, FL-08, and FL-24) last night of the NRCC not getting their preferred and/or expected candidate (not that it matters much in this red district), social conservative Jim Lankford beat Club for Growther Kevin Calvey in the OK-05 runoff, by a wide 65-35 margin.

• Vermont: The night’s most refreshing primary — one that was extremely civil and where one of the key issues was just how much each participant supported Vermont’s possible move to single-payer health care — also turned out to be its closest. With every precinct reporting this morning, state Sen. Peter Shumlin has a 190-vote lead over ex-LG Doug Racine, who in turn has a 494-vote lead on SoS Deb Markowitz. Shumlin has more or less declared victory, and will face Republican LG Brian Dubie.

Florida State House Races

Sometimes it’s not the races you lose, but the races you don’t win.  Republicans currently hold a 76-44 advantage in the Florida State House, just 4 seats from a 2/3, veto-overridin’ majority, which could be important with the now distinct possibility of Governor Alex Sink (knock on wood).  

This could have, would have, and should have been the year that Democrats finally made up some of that big gap in the State House.  Due to term limits, Republicans have tons of open seats to defend, several of which are in vulnerable districts.  But alas, the poisonous environment of 2010 will probably prevent a Democratic resurgence in the chamber.  In fact, I predict no Dem pickups and two Republican pickups, leaving the chamber 78-42 Republican.  

My expectation is that what Florida Democrats were once hoping would be an opportunity for a big gain will end up a stalemate or worse.  It’s like a baseball team losing after leaving 20 runners on base, for those of you who love sports metaphors.  In any event, here is the rundown:

DEMOCRATIC TARGETS

LEANS REPUBLICAN

HD-26 – OPEN (Patterson) – This is a dead even district, with maybe a slight Republican tilt, in Volusia and Flagler counties, stretching from the north central Atlantic coast inland to the Deland area.  Term-limited incumbent Pat Patterson faced only semi-competitive races for re-election.  The Democrat is Volusia County Deputy Superintendent of Schools Michael Huth.  The Republican is Ormond Beach mayor Fred Costello.  Huth has raised $92K to Costello’s $122K.  Given the environment, and Costello’s higher profile as mayor of a significant city, Costello gets the edge.

HD-57 – OPEN (Culp) – This is a slightly Republican-leaning district in the Tampa area.  Term-limited incumbent Faye Culp faced only semi-competitive races for re-election.  The race is a battle between two attorneys: Democrat Stacy Frank and Republican Dana Young.  Frank has raised $171K to Young’s $162K.  Tea Party candidate Matthew Russell may take votes from Young.  Nevertheless, Young has the edge between two strong candidates in this Republican-leaning district.

HD-83 – OPEN (Domino) – This is a dead even district taking in coastal and northern Palm Beach County.  Term-limited incumbent Carl Domino has faced very tight re-election battles over the past two cycles.  The Democrat is optometrist Mark Marciano.  The Republican is businessman Pat Rooney, the brother of Congressman Tom Rooney and a member of the Rooney family of Steelers football fame.  Marciano has raised a respectable $81K to Rooney’s $141K.  Given Rooney’s financial edge, name recognition, and the environment, the edge goes to Rooney.

HD-87 – OPEN (Hasner) – This is a dead even district, but trending blue, along the coast in Southern Palm Beach County.  Term-limited incumbent Adam Hasner has won re-election by impressive double-digit margins in spite of the tough district.  The Democrat is Assistant State Attorney Hava Holzhauer.  The Republican is Boca Raton City Council Member Bill Hager.  Holzhauer has raised $80K to Hager’s $158K.  With Hager’s financial advantage and higher profile, I expect him to win.

HD-91 – OPEN (Bogdanoff) – This is a slightly Republican district that runs along the cost of Broward County.  Incumbent Ellyn Bogdanoff was elected in 2004, had a semi-competitive race in 2006, and coasted to re-election in 2008.  She is vacating the seat to run for State Senate.  This is another battle between two attorneys: Democrat Barbra Stern and Republican George Moraitis.  Stern has raised $81K to Moraitis’s $114K.  Tea Party candidate John Perez could siphon votes away from Moraitis.  Nevertheless, the edge goes to Moraitis in a tough environment for Democrats.

HD-119 – OPEN (Zapata) – This is a majority Hispanic district in western Miami-Dade County, which is trending blue but has historically elected Republicans.  Term-limited incumbent Juan Zapata is quite popular in the district, and never faced a competitive re-election campaign.  The Democrat is Dade County Farm Bureau Executive Director Katie Edwards.  The Republican is insurance professional Frank Artiles, who has received much of his financial backing from the insurance industry.  Edwards has raised $173K to $154 for Artiles.  There are two third party candidates.  Nestor Iglesias is the obligatory Tea Party spoiler for Artiles, and Graziella Denny is an Indy candidate about whom I have been unable to find any substantive information.  This could be an interesting race, but the national environment and the district’s voting history suggest that Artiles is the favorite.

REPUBLICAN TARGETS

LEANS REPUBLICAN TAKEOVER

HD-11 – Boyd – This is a heavily Republican district in rural North Central Florida.  “Blue Dog” style incumbent Debbie Boyd won the district by 0.2% in a 2008 open seat contest over former Columbia County Commissioner Elizabeth Porter.  Porter is back for a second run.  Boyd has raised $152K to Porter’s $30K, and so she has a strong financial advantage.  She will need every penny.  I expect the electoral environment in this part of Florida to turn against Boyd emphatically, with Porter winning comfortably.  However, Tea Party candidate John Ferentinos may keep Boyd in the game.

TOSS-UP/TILTS REPUBLICAN TAKEOVER

HD-81 – Fetterman – This is a dead even district in the Port St. Lucie area, which is trending blue.  Incumbent Adam Fetterman won a 2008 open seat race by 5%.  This time around, he faces Gayle Harrell, who represented the district in the State House from 2001 to 2009.  Harrell won by large margins in the 2000, 2002, and 2004 elections, but faced a more competitive, 10 point race in 2008.  Fetterman has raised $145K to Harrell’s $131K.  In this environment, Harrell has a small edge in a race that is otherwise almost completely even in every respect.  

TOSS-UP/TILTS DEMOCRATIC

HD-69 – Fitzgerald – This is a dead even district based in Sarasota.  Fitzgerald was elected in 2006 by 2% and re-elected by only 4% in 2008.  His opponent is former Sarasota County Commissioner Ray Pilon, who has lost two races for Sarasota County Sheriff since leaving the County Commission.  Fitzgerald has raised $118K to Pilon’s $73K.  This could be a tough race, but Fitzgerald should hold on given his financial advantage.  He is used to being targeted, and Pilon is not the toughest candidate he has faced.

LEANS DEMOCRATIC

HD-09 – Rehwinkel-Vasilinda – This is a solidly Democratic district in Tallahassee and the surrounding areas.  Incumbent Michelle Rehwinkel-Vasilinda narrowly defeated African-American Florida State University football star Peter Boulware in an open seat contest in 2008.  Her opponent this time around is social worker Kirk Headley-Perdue, who in spite of her first name is a woman.  Rehwinkel-Vasilinda has raised $116K to Headley-Perdue’s $95K.  Rehwinkel-Vasilinda should hold on in this blue district against an opponent who lacks the unique local appeal of Boulware.

HD-51 – Long – This is a dead even district in southwestern Pinellas County.  Incumbent Janet Long won this seat in 2006 by less than 1%, and was re-elected in 2008 by a more comfortable 16%.  Her opponent is businessman Larry Ahern.  Long has raised $160K to Ahern’s $44K.  A purported March poll of the district, the details of which were not released, claimed a 7-point lead for Long.  Tea Party candidate Victoria Torres should only help Long to hold the seat.  Long should have an edge here, and it actually would not surprise me if the mystery poll turned out to be accurate.

HD-52 – Heller – This is a slightly Democratic district in the St. Petersburg area.  Incumbent Bill Heller won the seat in 2006 by 8%, and was re-elected in 2008 by 20%.  His opponent is businessman Jeff Brandes.  Heller has raised $89K to $134K for Brandes.  Heller is an institution in the area, and he should win despite a strong effort from Brandes.  

HD-107 – Garcia – This is a majority Hispanic, Miami area district, which is historically Republican but trending Democratic.  Incumbent Luis Garcia was elected to the seat in 2006 by 4%, and was re-elected in 2008 by 10%.  His opponent is Gustavo Barreiro, who represented the district in the State House from 1999 through 2007.  Mr. Barreiro was very popular while in office, coasting to re-election term after term.  However, after leaving office, he was fired from his job at the Department of Juvenile Justice when pornographic images were allegedly found on his computer.  Garcia has raised $122K to Barreiro’s $46K.  While I would not necessarily consider Barreiro’s porn problem disqualifying, Garcia has a distinct edge in light of both that incident and Garcia’s financial advantage.

FL-Gov: Sink Leads Scott by 7 Points

Public Policy Polling (8/21-22, likely voters,

Alex Sink (D): 41 (36)

Rick Scott (R): 34 (30)

Bud Chiles (I): 8 (13)

Undecided: 22 (NA)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

PPP is out of the gate with the first poll of the Florida gubernatorial election now that billionaire creepazoid Rick Scott is the Republican nominee (although, note that the poll was conducted over the weekend). It seems that Rick Scott has gorged himself on cat fud, as his favorable rating is an abysmal 28-49 compared to Sink’s 35-23. Only 57% of Republicans are committing to Scott while Sink enjoys the support of 72% of Democrats. Independents, who detest Scott (giving him a 54% unfavorable rating), lean toward Sink by a 37-28 spread.

It doesn’t sound like Billy McCollum is all that keen on hopping aboard the Rick Scott bandwagon. His concession statement doesn’t even mention Scott by name, choosing instead to refer to the medicare fraudster as “a multi-millionaire with a questionable past” who put out “false and misleading advertising”. That sure doesn’t sound like the tone of a man who’s anywhere near ready to endorse his party’s nominee, does it? I’m sure McCollum would rather let Scott grease for a while (at least) instead.

Things are definitely looking up for Alex Sink, although she’ll be faced with the whirling blades of Rick Scott’s gazillions. She’s already up on the airwaves with her first post-primary ad, though, with a spot that highlights her reform priorities.

AK-Sen: Joe Miller, Murkowski Killer?

The latest count:


















429 of 438 Precincts Reporting
Candidate Votes Percent
Lisa Murkowski 43,949 48.91%
Joe Miller 45,909 51.09%

So, it seems Joe Miller is on the verge of a shocking upset — or was it really all that shocking? Sure, the polls we saw of this race were not particularly encouraging for Miller, but they were taken before the Tea Party Express (the same lugs who powered bat-eyed Sharron Angle to a primary win) spent over $550K on Miller’s behalf. That may not seem like much, but those ad dollars can stretch a lot further in a less expensive media market like Alaska’s. Also, let’s not forget the dubious track record of Alaska polls back in 2008…

As for the final result, we won’t know for sure until all the absentees are counted — which will begin next week but finish on September 8th:

The final results of the race won’t be known for over a week. The Alaska Division of Elections said over 16,000 absentee ballots were requested and as of Monday night 7,600 had been returned. The first count of absentees will be next Tuesday and there will be two subsequent counts as the absentee votes trickle in on Sept. 3 and on Sept. 8.

I hope that Chuck Schumer’s been on the horn with Sitka Mayor – and Democratic Senate nominee – Scott McAdams this morning.

SSP Daily Digest 8/25 (Morning Edition)

  • AR-Sen: Quelle surprise: The AFL-CIO, which was a major supporter of Bill Halter, won’t endorse Blanche Lincoln in the general.
  • NV-Sen: Your daily dose of Angle Crazy comes courtesy Greg Sargent:

    • MANDERS: We have domestic enemies. We have home-born homegrown enemies in our system. And I for one think we have some of those enemies in the walls of the Senate and the Congress.

    ANGLE: Yes. I think you’re right, Bill.

  • PA-Sen: Karl Rove’s gang of ne’er-do-wells is out with an ad attacking Joe Sestak. NWOTSOTB.
  • WI-Sen: Weirdo Ron Johnson has a new ad out, trying to sell himself as just a reg’lar guy. NWOTSOTB, but the “ad is airing statewide on cable and broadcast TV starting Tuesday, according to a campaign spokeswoman.” Meanwhile, the new right-wing group American Action Network is dropping a $325K ad buy against Russ Feingold. Some background on the group (whose backers include Nixon hatchet man Fred Malek – whataguy!) here.
  • HI-Gov: Wow. Former Rep. (and recent special election loser) Ed Case went somewhat against type and endorsed Neil Abercrombie over Mufi Hannemann in the Dem gubernatorial primary. The “centrist” Case seemingly had more in common with Hannemann, the urbane mayor of Honolulu, than Abercrombie, the septuagenarian progressive. And Case didn’t just issue some anodyne statement – he utterly lambasted Hannemann:

    • Case called him “the most dangerous politician in a generation,” adding that Hannemann governs “by fear and intimidation.”

    “He is the product and clear choice of a political machine that must end. While professing unity, he’s practiced the politics of division, exploiting rather than healing differences of race, origin and economic status,” Case said.

  • CO-03: Republican Scott Tipton is touting an internal poll from Magellan, showing him with a 49-43 lead over Rep. John Salazar. Salazar says his own internals have him leading. One FYI about this (and most other) Magellan polls: It’s a one-day sample, much like Rasmussen, and – I would guess – does not include callbacks. Nate Silver previously laid out in great detail how a lack of callbacks can negatively affect poll quality.
  • KS-04: Raj Goyle is up with a positive bio spot touting his “Kansas values.” NWOTSOTB, though this district is centered around Wichita, which is a pretty cheap media market.
  • MA-10: Great headline:

    • Jeff Perry ‘proud’ despite work on bogus degree

    Meanwhile, Dem Rob O’Leary is out with his first TV ad, which interestingly enough calls for an end to the war in Afghanistan. NWOTSOTB, and WARNING – AUTOPLAYING YOUTUBE. Very annoying.

  • MI-07: AFSCME has a new ad out hitting Republican retread Tim Walberg for his votes in Congress, though I think the messaging is a little muddled. Anyhow, NWOTSOTB just yet, but presumably the union will have to file an IE report soon.
  • NJ-12: GOPer Scott Sipprelle claims he’s launching his “third positive, issue-based cable television commercial this summer.” First off, check out the ad (which attacks “Washington politicians right at the start”) and then tell me if you think it’s “positive.” Secondly, I’m guessing that this ad is much closer to a “video press release” (as Nathan Gonzales calls them) than a real buy, given that this district lies mostly in the #1-most expensive media market in the country (and the rest is in Philly, which ain’t exactly cheap), and that Sipprelle acknowledges it’s a cable-only buy.
  • NY-14: It seems like a long time ago now, but remember when Carolyn Maloney came oh-so-close to primarying appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand? Well, it’s an old memory indeed, seeing as Gillibrand is hosting a breakfast fundraiser in Manhattan for Maloney next week.
  • OH-16: Jim Renacci is up with his first ad of the general election campaign – which I can only assume is targeted at his race against me for NYC Zoning Board. But it’s weird that he keeps talking about Ohio, no? Anyhow, a spokesman says the ad “is part of a $250,000 two-week buy” on both broadcast and cable. Do you think it’s running on New York 1?
  • OH-17: Jim Traficant missed the deadline to file as a write-in candidate, but his supporters are still hoping for a favorable ruling from SoS Jennifer Brunner on whether Traficant can appear as an independent. If not, they are supposedly threatening to go to court.
  • PA-04: Great, another one of these. Much like Joe Donnelly, Jason Altmire has a new ad up claiming he that he’s “not afraid to stand up to the president – and Nancy Pelosi.” Lovely. NWOTSOTB.
  • PA-10: It’s nice when Republican delusions help us win campaigns. Here’s Tom Marino’s latest:

    • “My generation and probably the generation that follows me, we are going to have to step up to the plate and say,” he said. “We are not going to get Social Security,” he said. “But we are going to pay into it to get this debacle squared away. So if I have to sacrifice my Social Security to get it squared away … because we can’t take Social Security away from people that are on it now.