Month: August 2010

4:46am: Hm, nope. We’re now at 77% reporting, and Miller’s up by 2,996. That’s it from me, though. Goodnight and good luck!

4:41am: Okay, I lied. With 72% now reporting (the final DoE update for the night), Miller now leads by over 3,100 votes.

4:28am: Final update, I swear! From the ADN:

The final results of the race won’t be known for a week. The Alaska Division of Elections said over 16,000 absentee ballots were requested and as of Monday night 7,600 had been returned. The first count of absentees will be next Tuesday and there will be subsequent counts as they trickle in on Sept. 3 and on Sept. 8.

4:24am: The Anchorage Daily News is tweeting that the Alaska DoE will stop counting votes at 12:30am local (six minutes from now) and will resume in the morning. Hope you have your morning coffee ready!

4:00am: One final update from the SSP Rocky Mountain Headquarters: We’re up to 66% of the vote reporting in Alaska, and Joe Miller’s lead has shot up to 2,881 votes (still 52-48). Who knows how long it’ll take to sort this one out. The last time we covered a close Alaska primary, we ended up liveblogging for 24 hours.

3:22am: We’re going to call it a night at SSP. Before we go, though, a quick Alaska update: 51% are reporting (not much change over the last hour), and Miller’s lead is 52-48, by 2,300 votes. Based on half-assed piecing-apart of the legislative districts (y’know, it seems like once every two years I really find myself wishing that Alaska had counties), though, that lead may be kind of fragile as more rural areas start to report more. But we’ll know more tomorrow.

3:20am: A few minutes ago the AP finally called AZ-03 for Ben Quayle, who wins with an overwhelming mandate of 23%. He’ll face Dem Jon Hulburd in November. Also just noticed the AP called, at some point, AZ-Sen D for Rodney Glassman, who wins with 35% and will face John McCain.

2:50am: And it looks like they’ve just shut it down for the night in Vermont, with no clear victor in the Dem gubernatorial primary. They’re still stalled at 232 of 260 precincts.

2:49am: 94% reporting in AZ-03, but still no call. It’s still Ben Quayle at 23, with 18 for Steve Moak, and 17 for Jim Waring and Vernon Parker each.

2:47am: Sean Parnell has been called the victor in the GOP gubernatorial primary. It wasn’t that overwhelming, though: also exactly 50% of the vote, with Bill Walker pulling in 34%.

2:45am: Almost exactly half reporting in Alaska, and the Miller lead continues to grow very slightly: he’s up to a 2,200 vote lead, good for a 52-48 margin. Whoever wins will face Scott McAdams; the Sitka mayor has been called by the AP as winner of the Dem primary (with 50% of the vote).

2:14am: With 36% reporting, it’s still 51-49 for Miller over Murkowski. The lead is up to 1,200 votes. Interestingly, though (if I’m reading this map correctly), it seems like the Mat-Su Valley (the most conservative part of the state, including Wasilla, home of Miller’s most famous endorsers) has mostly reported (based on state House districts 12 and 15). The Bush (which if you remember your 2008 history, where Young’s victory eventually came from) reports later, and they might be less teabaggish and more pork-friendly out there.

2:00am: The last uncalled GOP primary in Arizona is AZ-03, although we’re up to 81% reporting. Ben Quayle is still leading, by that same 23-18-18 margin over Jim Waring and Steve Moak.

1:45am: One other call: the AP call the GOP primary in AZ-01 for rogue dentist Paul Gosar. He’ll face Ann Kirkpatrick. He wins with only 31%, beating Sydney Hay at 23 and Rusty Bowers at 14.

1:42am: The AP has called Don Young’s GOP primary for him, beating Sheldon Fisher with 70%. He’ll face Dem Harry Crawford in November.

1:41am: We’re up to 33% reporting in Alaska, and it’s still 51-49 for Miller over Murkowski, with a 1,000 vote lead for Miller. (Well, 1,002, if you want to get technical.)

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RESULTS:

• Alaska: Associated Press | AK DoE | Politico
• Arizona: Associated Press | AZ SoS | Politico
• Vermont: Associated Press | Politico

1:35am: Follow us over here.

1:34am: And yet another lead change in Vermont. Now Peter Shumlin is back on top by 121 votes over Doug Racine, thanks to only two more precints reporting (now 232 out of 260).

1:28am: Meanwhile, back in Arizona, the AP has called the AZ-08 GOP primary for Jesse Kelly, who unexpectedly beats establishment favorite Jonathan Paton 49-40.

1:26am: We’ve moved up to 29% reporting; Miller still leads Murkowski by about 500.

1:24am: Via the Twitter, Taniel is reminding us that Don Young trailed early in the GOP 2008 primary (against now-Gov. Parnell), and came back slowly as the late precincts from the Bush (where they like and in fact depend on their pork, and thus love the old-school Alaska politicians, in which category Murkowski seems to fall) trickled in.

1:20am: At least the indestructible Don Young is cruising; he leads the AK-AL GOP primary over Sheldon Fisher 70-24.

1:18am: We’ve got gubernatorial results in Alaska too. On the Dem side, Ethan Berkowitz is leading, though maybe not as big a margin as expected; he leads Hollis French 48-42. On the GOP side, Sean Parnell also leading by a not overwhelming margin, 48 over 35 for Bill Walker and 14 for Ralph Samuels.

1:15am: Wow, this is big. We’re just getting the first Alaska results (via the state site, the AP has nothing) and we’ve got a real race in the AK-Sen GOP primary. Joe Miller leads Lisa Murkowski 51-49, with 27% reporting (119 of 438).

1:11am: We’re rounding the halfway mark in AZ-Sen D (1100 out of 2239), and it’s looking like Rodney Glassman is on track to face John McCain. He’s at 35, with Cathy Eden at 28, J. Dougherty at 24, and Randy Parraz back at 13.

1:09am: The AP has called AZ-05, where David Schweikert is still at 39% atop a crowded field. That’s with only 38% reporting, but he’s well ahead of Susan Bitter Smith, at 25.

1:07am: Contrast that with Arizona, where nothing interesting has happened since the initial rollout of votes. In AZ-01, we’re up to 66% reporting, and it’s still the exact same, with Paul Gosar over Sydney Hay 32-23. Rusty Bowers, who on paper seemed like he should have been the frontrunner thanks to his long-ago legislative tenure and then his duties lobbying on behalf of the sand and gravel industry, is in 4th place at 14, trailing B. Beauchamp.

1:03am: I don’t think this Vermont race could get any closer if we tried. Doug Racine pulled back into the lead, by a whopping 13 votes over Peter Shumlin. That’s with 230 out of 260 precincts reporting (88% in).

1:00am: In AZ-03, we’re up to 48% reporting. Looks like Ben Quayle going crying to mommy and daddy may have saved him in the end; he’s still holding at 23, beating Jim Waring and Steve Moak, both at 18.

12:51am: The Peter Shumlin lead is declining a bit in Vermont: he’s up by 45 now, 16,401 to 16,366 over Doug Racine, with Deb Markowitz at 15,621. (That’s 25-25-24.) 88% are reporting.

12:29am: We’re up to 35% reporting in AZ-03, and Ben Quayle has inched up to 23%, ahead of Waring at 19% and Moak at 18%. A Quayle win would certainly breathe a bit of life into well-financed Democrat Jon Hulbard’s campaign…

12:25am: Shumlin’s lead is now down to 75 votes (over Racine). Markowitz trails by 768 votes.

12:21am: Smoke ’em if you got em, fellow Swingnuts.

12:17am: Over in AZ-06, GOP incumbent Jeff Flake is at a somewhat underwhelming 67% against his Some Dude opponent.

12:11am: Get your Florida election law on. Automatic recounts are the name of the game if the final margin is less than 0.5%. In FL-24, Adams leads SnakesinaPool by 0.8% with one measly precinct outstanding.

12:05am: Not much has happened in the Arizona House Races. Gosar’s lead in AZ-01 is 10% of 5,500 votes with 51% reporting; nothing else new from AZ-03, 05, or 08.

12:03am: Shumlin’s now up to a 250-vote lead in VT-Gov, which is probably the largest lead of the night. Markowitz is still about 550 behind Racine.

12:00am: Still no call in FL-24, where we’re missing only one precinct in Brevard County. The last one added no votes, leaving Adams’ lead at 560, or 0.85%. SSP Legal is looking to Florida’s recount laws…

11:54pm: In AZ-Sen (D), we’re at 19% reporting; Glassman leads Eden 35-29, with Parraz in a distant fourth at 12.

11:48pm: More precincts keep flowing (dripping) in Vermont, where Racine is now 49 votes behind Shumlin. Markowitz is another 618 votes behind with 85% in.

11:46pm: Just two precincts left outstanding in FL-24, where Sandy Adams continues to hold her 560-vote lead over Karen SnakesInAPool (TM) Diebel, though both of them are in reptile-infested Brevard County.

11:41pm: Checking in on the Arizona house races, Paul Gosar has a 33-22 over retread Sydney Hay in AZ-01; Ben Quayle has a 22-19-18 lead over Jim Waring and Steve Moak in AZ-03. Dave Schweikert’s seem to have done fine despite his recanted hubris, leading Susan Bitter Smith by 6,000 votes or 39-25 in their AZ-05 rematch; the teabaggish Jesse Kelly has a 50-39 lead over establishment pick Jonathan Paton in AZ-08.

11:37pm: Back in VT-Gov, Peter Shumlin has now taken a 126-vote lead over Doug Racine; Deb Markowitz has now fallen another 526 votes back.

11:34pm: The Glass Man is up to 36-29 over Eden. Over in AZ-08, Kelly leads Paton by 50-39. In AZ-01, it’s 33-23 for rogue dentist Gosar over Sydney Hay.

11:31pm: We’d be remiss if we didn’t mention the one other competitive statewide race in Florida, the AG race on both sides. For the Dems, state Sen. Dan Gelber beat fellow state Sen. Dave Aronberg (who the DCCC had tried to lure into FL-16), 59-41. And on the GOP side, Sarah Palin-approved Pam Bondi beat Charlie Crist’s estranged Lt. Governor, Jeff Kottkamp, 38-33.

11:28pm: Well, that was fast. The AP has called AZ-Sen R for John McCain! (Good news!)

11:20pm: In the 5th, David Schweikert leads Susan Bitter Smith and Jim Ward 39-25-23. And in the 8th, this may be the big surprise of the night: teabagger Jesse Kelly is leading NRCC fave Jonathan Paton by a pretty wide 55-40.

11:19pm: In the House races, Paul Gosar’s over Sydney Hay 36-23 in the 1st. In the 3rd, Ben Quayle is leading 22-19-18 over Jim Waring and Steve Moak.

11:17pm: Finally, some data’s trickling in from Arizona. (Check out the SoS site, not the AP.) John McCain is crushing J.D. Hayworth 60-30. Rodney Glassman has a small lead over Cathy Eden, 33-31. (Randy Parraz is in 4th.)

11:12pm: Check out the raging enthusiasm with which the RGA greeted Rick Scott’s awesome victory!

“Rick Scott is the nominee, the general election has begun, and our party now looks forward.”

11:11pm: Switching back over to Vermont, now that we’re pretty much done with Florida and Arizona hasn’t given us anything yet. It’s Racine and Shumlin both at 25 (Racine up by 43 votes) with Markowitz at 24.

11:07pm: This just gets tastier and tastier. McCollum isn’t conceding yet. He’s saying “this’ll go into the wee hours of the morning.”

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RESULTS:

• Alaska: Associated Press | Politico
• Arizona: Associated Press | AZ SoS | Politico
• Florida: Associated Press | FL DoE | Politico
• Vermont: Associated Press | Politico

11:00pm: Time for some fresh thread.

10:55pm: Hahahhahahahahahha! The AP calls FL-Gov for none other than Rick Scott! Fuckin’ amazing!

10:53pm: Over in FL-24, is Sandy Adams this cycle’s Alice Kryzan? Diebel attacked Miller on immigration, Miller attacked Diebel on crazy, and Adams is walking through the hole in the middle. Still, it’s a very close race and not yet called.

10:49pm: Speaking of Boyd, the AP just called the race for him. What a crazy race.

10:47pm: The hamsters have been spinning in their wheels furiously to keep the ol’ mainframe running, which is still calling for about a 2-point Scott win and a 3-point Boyd escape.

10:42pm: We have a winner in FL-17! The AP has called the race for state Sen. Frederica Wilson, with 35% of the vote. Self-funder Rudy Moise was a distant second with 16%. He spent over a million bucks to get fewer than 6,000 votes (so far).

10:37pm: Rick Scott has now nudged up to 47%. If he hangs on, Tom Jensen and the gang over at PPP are going to look like geniuses.

10:34pm: Annette Taddeo, who ran a spirited campaign last cycle in FL-18, is running again this year for County Commissioner in Dade Co. Unfortunately, things don’t look so hot for her right now – she is in third place (look for District 8) in a race where the top two candidates advance.

10:28pm: We’re up to 67% in VT-Gov, Racine leads Markowitz by 8 votes. Shumlin trails by 50 or so votes. Basically, every update of this race has given us a new leader.

10:20pm: We’re now up to 81% reporting in Florida, and Rick Scott leads by 46-43. Note the disparity between the AP and Miami-Dade’s website in terms of precincts reporting: AP says 380, Miami-Dade says 526, but both show the same raw vote total. I’ve learned that when in doubt, the AP is usually wrong!

10:13pm: A perfect tie! Racine and Shumlin are at 9,440 votes each. Markowitz is about 200 votes behind.

10:07pm: Over in Vermont, Peter Shumlin had the lead briefly, but now it’s Doug Racine over Markowitz by 34 votes. (52% reporting)

10:06pm: The AP has called FL-25’s GOP primary for David Rivera. He’s up 64, to Crespo’s 25 and Cancio’s 10. Democratic oppo researchers are doing happy dances.

10:05pm: Eagle-eyed watchers may have noticed that the Miami-Dade elections office is about 300 precincts further along than the AP (526, instead of 213). McCollum needs to make up about 40K votes statewide, and the further-along Miami votes only help him make up about 5,000, though. Anyway, according to the AP, 72% are reporting, and it’s still 47-43 in favor of Scott.

9:59pm: It’s still a small Sandy Adams lead on the GOP side in the 24th. She leads Karen Diebel 30-29, with Craig Miller at 27, with 93% reporting. On the Dem side, let’s Partyka like it’s 2010. Suzanne Kosmas beat even-more-conservaDem Paul Partyka 78-22.

9:57pm: Did we mention there were primaries in the open seat FL-12? On the Dem side, Lori Edwards won 75-25 over Doug Tudor, the 2008 candidate and the preferred candidate of a few vocal souls in the netroots. On the GOP side, Dennis Ross’s performance against some teabagging dude J. Lindsey wasn’t overwhelming: 69-31.

9:55pm: Allen Boyd is starting to put a little more distance between him and Al Lawson, if 52-48 can be considered distant. That’s with 86% reporting, and with mostly rural white counties left (Boyd’s stronghold) to report.

9:51pm: Things are starting to look kind of locked in, in the Florida GOP gubernatorial race. With 65% reporting, it’s still 47 for Lex Luthor Bizarro World Peter Garrett Rick Scott, 43 for Bill McCollum. There’s still 2/3ds of Miami-Dade County left, though, where McCollum is doing well (up 63-30), presumably because of his support in the Cuban community over his less-insane immigration stance.

9:47pm: In the wildly swinging Vermont gubernatorial race (if you go by percentages instead of raw votes), Deb Markowitz has pulled back into the lead by about 65 votes over Doug Racine. It’s 26-26 with Shumlin at 24 and Dunne at 19.

9:44pm: One more call to mention: the AP called OK-05 for outsiderish social con Jim Lankford, who beats Club for Growth stooge Kevin Calvey 65-35.

9:41pm: The AP called the Dem field in FL-25 for Joe Garcia, who beats Luis Meurice 77-23. Still no call on the GOP side, but David Rivera’s at 64.

9:39pm: No call yet in the GOP field in FL-24, but it has one thing in common with FL-08: the NRCC’s prize pick finished embarrassingly back. In the 24th, Craig Miller is in 3rd at 27 (with Sandy Adams at 31 and Karen Diebel at 30). And in the 8th (which is called), Bruce O’Donoghue finished 5th, at _7_, behind Daniel Webster at 40, Todd Long at 23, Kurt Kelly at 14, and heretofore unknown P. Sullivan at 11.

9:37pm: Somewhere in there, the Republican primary in FL-05 got called for the Nuge. That’s Richard Nugent, not Ted, the Hernando Co. Sheriff who beats random teabagger Jason Sager 62-38 for the right to succeed Ginny Brown-Waite. He’ll face Dem Jim Piccillo in the general.

9:35pm: With 57% now reporting statewide in Florida, we’re still holding at a 47-43 lead for Rick Scott. That’s with 10 for Mike McAllister, a pretty good showing for Some Dude, although he pretty much a priori has to be the least of three evils.

9:32pm: The mainframe at SSP Labs has finally laid its egg (extrapolating each county’s results so far), and it predicts that Allen Boyd will continue to hold the lead and survive, by a not-so-convincing 52-48 margin. (He’s currently up 51-49 over Al Lawson, says the AP.) By the way, who ever wins will face Steve Southerland; the AP has called the GOP field in the 2nd for him, with 48% out of a field of five.

9:30pm: In what’s likely to not be the last lead change of the night, now Doug Racine leads the Dem pack in Vermont, with not quite 1/3 reporting. Racine’s at 26, with Markowitz at 25 and Shumlin at 24. (Racine’s edge is just 22 votes, so this’ll be a game of inches all night.)

9:15pm: And in FL-Gov, Rick Scott leads by 3.6% with 55% of the vote in. The other hot race to watch is FL-24, where conservative state Rep. Sandy Adams leads Karen “Snakes in a Pool” Diebel by 1% with 90% reporting.

9:14pm: We’re at 73% reporting in FL-02, and Allen Boyd’s lead has dipped down to 51-49. The ticker tape is spewing out of the SSP Labs mainframe fast and furiously — we’ll let you know what our findings tell us in a few minutes.

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RESULTS:

• Arizona: Associated Press | AZ SoS | Politico
• Florida: Associated Press | FL DoE | Politico
• Oklahoma: Associated Press | OK SEB | Politico
• Vermont: Associated Press | Politico

This is the last part of a series of posts analyzing competitive Senate  elections in blue states. It is the second section of two posts focusing on the greatest state in the union (otherwise known as California). The first part of the series can be found here.

Suburban SoCal

Southern California (SoCal, in short) is where the battle for California will be won or lost. Ms. Fiorina must accomplish two tasks in the region.

First, she must clean the clock in the suburban counties outside Los Angeles.

More below.

It is in places like Orange County, San Diego, and the Inland Empire that the votes to counter the Democratic bases in the Bay Area can be found. In the 2008 presidential election, there were one million more votes cast in the six SoCal counties above (excluding Los Angeles) than in the entire Bay Area.

This task is not too difficult. Unlike liberal NorCal, the suburbs in this region are more like the rest of the United States in their political leanings; in fact, they are probably more conservative than the median. Orange County and San Diego County are nationally known as conservative bastions (although they are not as red as in the past). Ms. Fioina probably needs to win above 60% of the vote in both counties. Historically, Republicans have often done this. The trouble is with Los Angeles.

Los Angeles

Ms. Fiorina’s second task is to run closely in Los Angeles. It is here that Republicans face their greatest challenge. Los Angeles – sprawled, extremely populous, and arguably more diverse than even the Bay Area – constitutes a Democratic stronghold. President Barack Obama ran off with 69.2% of the vote here; Senator John Kerry took 63.1%. Ms. Fiorina must reduce this Democratic margin to within the single-digits.

The math here is simple.  There are just not enough Republican votes in Central Valley, the Orange County-San Diego metropolis, and the Inland Empire to offset the Democratic bastions of the Bay Area and Los Angeles. Republicans must therefore break one of the two strongholds. It is impossible to do this in the Bay. So the choice must be Los Angeles.

The key are the outer, wealthier suburbs within Los Angeles county. Some are liberal Hollywood areas, typified by Congressman Henry Waxman’s 30th congressional district. Republicans probably cannot win these. Others are more conservative and even voted for Senator John McCain (see, for instance, the patches of red north of Pomona and south of Redondo Beach). Ms. Fiorina will have to expand upon this core and win places like the San Fernando Valley and Pasadena – suburbs which rarely vote Republican.

Conclusion

When the voting booths close and the precinct results start pouring in, look at Los Angeles County. Ms. Fiorina’s performance there will be most indicative of her overall strength. If Democrats are winning the county by double-digits, then she is in trouble. Conversely, if their margin is less than five percent – or if Republicans are winning the county – then Republicans are in good shape. A Democratic margin between five and ten percent signifies that a long night is ahead.

On a state-level basis, modeling a close Republican victory is somewhat difficult; Republican candidates haven’t won a close race for a long time in California. There is, however, a substitute that fits well:

These are the results of the famous Proposition 8, which passed by a 4.5% margin. On a county-by-county basis, a Fiorina victory will probably look quite similar to this. There are minor differences; the margins in Orange and San Diego Counties would probably be greater; Republicans probably wouldn’t win Los Angeles County.

Overall, however, the picture would not be too different. Heavy margins from the SoCal suburbs and Central Valley counter Democratic strength in NorCal, while a strong Republican performance in Los Angeles dilutes Democratic margins there.

There is one final complication for Republicans. California constitutes the most diverse state in the country; winning minorities is a must. The Republican Party is not very good at this, which why California is a blue state today. It must change this, if candidates like Ms. Fiorina are to win the state.

Some minorities are easier to win than others. Blacks are most loyal to the Democratic Party, but they number only 6.2% of the state’s population. While more numerous Asians and Latinos do not vote their numbers (their share in the voting electorate is slightly more than half their share of the overall population), their votes are easier to get.

Here Proposition 8 is less useful as a guide. In Los Angeles County, for instance, all of South Central voted for the proposition. Unless Republicans start winning Compton and Watts, they will have to find support from a different section of California’s majority-minorities.

Winning minorities constitutes a novel challenge to the Republican Party; until now it has drawn an ever-increasing percentage of the white vote to offset increasing numbers of minorities. This is no longer possible in places like California. If Republican candidates like Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman are to win the state, they will need to envision a new strategy.

(Note: Credit for several edited images goes to the LA Times).

–Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

9:06pm: Move along, now, y’all. Over here.

9:04pm: “Out East” or so they say, with 18% reporting in Vermont, Markowitz has a 121-vote lead over Shumlin, who has a 6-vote lead over Racine. For those of you that prefer percentages, that’s 26-25-25, with 19 for Dunne.

9:01pm: 39% reporting in OK-05 now, Jim Lankford continues to lead Kevin Calvey, now 61-39. First of several outsider upsets tonight?

8:57pm: All of Broward’s reporting in FL-17, Wilson continues to hold her 33-16 lead. Broward is 26% of the district.

8:55pm: The AP’s also called FL-08 for Daniel Webster, who’s holding his 40-23 lead over Todd Long.

8:53pm: The AP’s called the OK-02 runoff for Charles Thompson, who…has a $13k warchest. While that’s better than Edmonds’ $1300, it’ll likely be no match for Dan Boren.

8:49pm: Bill McCollum is lagging Rick Scott just a little more in FL-Gov (R), with Scott now up 46-43. While McCollum’s stronghold of Miami-Dade is only 0.1% reporting, let’s not forget that  around 40% of votes are cast early in Florida, and those have indeed reported.

8:47pm: Some early results coming through in Vermont. With 12% reporting, SoS Deb Markowitz has a narrow 28-25 lead over Lt. Gov Doug Racine; Shumlin and Dunne are close behind at 21 apiece.

8:44pm: Further down the peninsula, Daniel Webster leads Todd Long 40-23 in FL-08; Sandy Adams leads Karen Diebel 32-30 in FL-24, and “Road Rage” Rivera has 65 in FL-25. For the “Get to Congress Free” card in FL-17, Frederica Wilson has 33% to Rudy Moise’s 16%. (The GOP isn’t contesting this district in November.)

8:39pm: Another 200 precincts have rolled in down in Florida; Rick Scott continues to hold his 46-44 advantage for the GOP Gov nod. 57% reporting in FL-02, with Boyd seeing a little more daylight at 52-48 now. Alarmingly for him, only early votes have reported in Gadsden County, which is heavily-Democratic and majority-black.

8:38pm: In Oklahoma, Charles Thompson leads Daniel Edmonds 66-34 in OK-02 with about 10% reporting; Jim Lankford looks on track to upset establishment pick Kevin Calvey in OK-05, leading 58-42 with 9% reporting.

8:24pm: Wow. Allen Boyd only leads Al Lawson by 2% with 42% reporting.

8:21pm: Summerwind sails into the sunset. The AP has called the Dem Senate primary for Kendrick Meek.

8:18pm: Over in FL-24, Sandy Adams leads Karen “Snakes in a Pool” Diebel by 31-30 with 29% reporting.

8:11pm: We’re up to 30% reporting in Florida, and Scott is still holding steady at 46-44 over McCollum. Meek leads Greene by 55-32. Oh, and hey: The AP has called FL-Sen (R) for Marco Rubio and FL-Gov (D) for Alex Sink.

8:05pm: Some early results in from Vermont — Deb Markowitz, Matt Dunne, and Doug Racine are separated by a mere handful of votes.

7:57pm: Rick Scott’s margin has tightened to 46-44, in part thanks to McCollum’s strong performance in Miami-Dade, where the pocket protector-wielding dork is boasting 66% of the vote.

7:48pm: In the AP’s hot early precinct action in FL-25, scumbucket David Rivera has 57% to Paul Crespo’s 33% and Mariana Cancio’s 10%.

7:42pm: We’re up to 5.5% reporting in the Gov race, and Rick Scott’s lead over Bill McCollum is now at 48-42. In the Senate race, Meek now leads Greene by 51-36.

7:36pm: Some early House primary results: Boyd leads Lawson 59-41 in FL-02. Richard Nugent’s got a 60-40 lead over Pat Sager in FL-05. Dan Webster’s at 40%, with a big lead over Todd Long in FL-08. In FL-24, Sandy Adams, Karen Diebel and Craig Miller are essentially locked in a three-way tie.

7:31pm: So much for the Florida DoE’s futile plan to hold the results until 8pm… The Associated Press has already got some early precinct action: Meek is up 48%-38% on Greene, and Rick Scott leads Bill McCollum by 50-40!

7:24pm: And we’re off! Only, Florida is holding their results until 8pm…

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RESULTS:

• Florida: Associated Press | FL DoE | Politico
• Oklahoma: Associated Press | OK SEB | Politico
• Vermont: Associated Press | Politico

Polls close in less than an hour in select locations, so let’s hear some predictions! Can Bill McCollum beat free-spending Rick Scott by virtue of being less unlikeable in the Florida governor’s race? Can Jeff Greene sail his vomit-covered yacht through the rapidly closing window in the Florida Senate race? Can J.D. Hayworth help you get free government grant money?

Closing times tonight:

• Florida: 7 pm ET (except: 7 pm CT/8 pm ET in the Panhandle)

• Vermont: 7 pm ET

• Oklahoma: 7 pm CT/8 pm ET

• Arizona: 7 pm MST/10 pm ET

• Alaska: 8 pm local/midnight ET (except: 8 pm local/1 am ET in the Aleutians)

• CO-Sen, CO-Gov: ColoradoPols has an interesting question up at their site: who’s crazier, the Republicans’ candidate in the Senate race or the Governor’s race? (In fact, that’s a good question for the comments here… not just Colorado, but for a whole number of other states too.) The DSCC would like the answer to be “Ken Buck,” the whole Dan Maes UN-bicycle-plot thing notwithstanding: they’re out with a new ad working the Paul/Angle-style “too extreme” angle, here focusing on Buck’s support for eliminating the 17th amendment.

• PA-Sen: This is going to be a hard one for Pat Toomey to explain without some high-impact semantic gymnastics. At the Pennsylvania Press Club yesterday, Toomey said “I’ve never said I favor privatizing Social Security.” The DSCC promptly rolled out 36 different newspaper articles in which Toomey favored privatizing Social Security. We Ask America did offer some sustenance for Toomey, though: they find him leading Joe Sestak 48-35.

• FL-Gov: Here’s a bad sign for the Republican Party of Florida (aka RPOF, pronounced “rip-off”), who poured a lot of money into carrying Bill McCollum across the finish line in the primary and will have to keep propping him up for November. They’re down to $54K in their federal campaign finance account (after plowing much of their holdings into outside committees backing McCollum). Maybe they’d been counting on a reimbursement check from disgraced former state party chair Jim Greer to help fill their coffers a bit, but here’s the ultimate ignominy: Greer’s $7K check to reimburse the party for overcharges bounced.

• LA-03: Politico has a preview of the Republican primary in the open seat 3rd (which will be decided this Saturday, don’t forget). Former state House speaker Hunt Downer is pretty universally considered frontrunner, but he faces a double-teabagging from attorney Jeff Landry and engineer Kristian Magar, who are pointing to his decades as a Democrat, and his snubbing of Tea Party events. Downer’s fate could rest on whether he clears the 50% mark and avoids a runoff, as he could face more trouble against just one opponent.

• MI-01, MI-07: It looks like the Tea Party won’t be getting a ballot line in Michigan, after a 2-2 decision by the state’s Board of Canvassers. (The tie means they’re kept off the ballot.) Republicans brought the challenge pointing to possible Democratic involvement in getting the Tea Party on the ballot (to the extent that a member of the Oakland County Dem leadership helped them). This probably has the greatest impact in the competitive races in the 1st and 7th, where the Tea Party had had candidates ready to go (Lonnie Lee Snyder and Danny Davis, respectively), presumably who would eat into the GOP’s vote share.

• NJ-06: Who knew that when Facebook was created that it’d become a preferred venue for leaking internal polls? Anna Little, the surprise victor in the NJ-06 GOP primary, is now touting a poll from National Research showing her trailing Rep. Frank Pallone 40-34.

• OR-05: One other GOP internal poll kicking around today: state Rep. Scott Bruun, is out with a poll via local Republican pollster Bob Moore giving him a 41-38 lead over freshman Rep. Kurt Schrader.

• Ads: The big ad of the day may be Harry Reid’s newest attack on Sharron Angle in NV-Sen, using her own words to seize on her claims that the state aid package was “money laundering.” Ted Strickland in OH-Gov is also out with a new ad, hitting John Kasich again on his ties to Lehman Brothers. Two House members facing credible challenges this year are also out with their first ads of the season: Republican Lee Terry in NE-02, focusing on his hatred of pork, and Democrat Martin Heinrich in NM-01, focusing on his constituent services.

• Outside Money: The Washington Post has a fantastic new little tool, in the form of a sortable chart that keeps track of outside expenditures by unions, Republican front groups, assorted weirdos, and all other manner of interest groups outside the two parties. Fun fact: did you know that Robert Kirkland (who spent $2.1 million) is #5 overall in total IEs for 2010 (on behalf of his brother Ron’s losing GOP primary run in TN-08), more than the Club for Growth, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, or even the DSCC?

• Rasmussen:

• IL-Gov: Pat Quinn (D-inc) 37%, Bill Brady (R) 46%

• MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan (D) 40%, Roy Blunt (R) 51%

• OR-Gov: John Kitzhaber (D) 44%, Chris Dudley (R) 45%

Public Policy Polling (8/21-22, likely voters, 7/16-18 in parens):

Kendrick Meek (D): 17 (17)

Marco Rubio (R): 40 (29)

Charlie Crist (I): 32 (35)

Alex Snitker (L): 3 (4)

Undecided: 8 (15)

Jeff Greene (D): 13 (13)

Marco Rubio (R): 37 (29)

Charlie Crist (I): 36 (38)

Alex Snitker (L): 4 (3)

Undecided: 10 (16)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

PPP’s newest look at the Florida Senate race is a complete turnaround from one month ago. Charlie Crist and Marco Rubio aren’t that differently situated, in terms of their popularity: Crist’s approval is 42/44, while Rubio is at 40/37. However, a few things have changed that have caused their positions to dramatically flip since a month ago, though: the Republicans are even more tightly united around Rubio, taking moderate GOPers away from Crist. Also, the share of unaffiliateds (theoretically Crist’s strongest constituency, since he’s one of them now) has dropped since July, from 20% to only 14% of the sample.

It’s a sample that went for John McCain over Barack Obama 48-45 in 2008 (instead of the actual Obama 51-48), and the Republican part of the sample may be even more extra-conservative than usual (remember that PPP was the only pollster yesterday to give Rick Scott, who seems to be the “conservative” candidate in the Gov primary, a lead). While I agree with PPP (and pretty much everyone else) that Crist’s chances improve significantly with Jeff Greene as the Dem nominee rather than Kendrick Meek, it’s interesting to note that Meek hasn’t really increased his share in the general… the flip between Rubio and Crist seems based partly on composition differences between the two samples, and, even more notably, on undecideds moving to Rubio.

• AK-Gov (R/D): Anything other than slam-dunk wins tonight for incumbent Gov. Sean Parnell and ex-state House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz would have to be considered a surprise. Parnell has led his two highest-profile challengers, ex-state House Speaker Ralph Samuels and attorney and ex-Valdez Mayor Bill Walker by huge margins, as has Berkowitz against state Sen. Hollis “October Surprise” French. (JL)

• AK-Sen (R): Could Lisa Murkowski bite it in a intra-party challenge from little-known attorney Joe Miller? In Miller’s corner are the Palins, Mike Huckabee, and a half-million from the Tea Party Express. In her corner, Murkowski has the backing of about 1.9 million dead presidents, and a 62-30 lead over Miller in a late July Ivan Moore poll. Of course, that was before the TPX started unloading, but the odds are always long for Some Dudes… (JL)

• AZ-Sen (R): This looked like it was going to be one of the all-time great Republican primary slugfests when it first appeared on the horizon: Mr. Maverick himself, John McCain, versus fiery conservative ex-Rep.-turned-radio-talk-show-host J.D. Hayworth. Some of the initial polling, in fact, was fairly close, before the novelty wore off… but then the novelty wore off, and we were left with three basic realities: a) John McCain had a ton more money than Hayworth and was willing to use it, b) John McCain had absolutely no shame about taking all that Maverick stuff, throwing it in the trash can along with many of his previous policy positions, and remaking himself as a right-wing ideologue in order to survive his primary, and c) J.D. Hayworth is a complete and total clown. The turning point seemed to be the revelation in June that Hayworth had shilled for a Matthew Lesko-style free-government-money infomercial, which destroyed any remaining credibility he may have still had. Polling from July gave McCain leads ranging from 20 to over 40 points. (C)

• AZ-Sen (D): At this point, the Democratic Senate primary in Arizona looks a good bit more unpredictable than the Republican one. The seeming frontrunner is former Tucson vice-mayor Rodney Glassman, a former Raul Grijalva aide and a young up-and-comer with some family money as well. Glassman seemed to have the field to himself after the NRSC’s desired candidate, wealthy businesswoman Nan Stockholm Walden, begged off… but once the specter of a race against J.D. Hayworth instead of John McCain appeared, some other late entrants arrived, most notably civil rights activist Randy Parraz and former state Rep. Cathy Eden. What little polling we’ve seen of this race (a Rasmussen poll from July and a Parraz internal) has given Glassman the lead, but he didn’t rise above 20% in either poll. More-frequent polling of the general election has actually given Glassman a good chance against Hayworth… but unfortunately, a McCain match is looking much likelier. (C)

• AZ-01 (R): Eight Republicans have jumped into the race for the right to challenge freshman Dem Ann Kirkpatrick. Notably, rogue dentist Paul Gosar has spent the most, but the field also includes former State Senate majority leader Rusty Bowers and 2008 nominee Sydney Hay (whose abysmal campaign netted her a 56-40 defeat). Gosar seems to have most of the establishment support, including endorsements from the Grizzly Momma and (even though the district doesn’t enter it) Maricopa County Sheriff and xenophobe extraordinaire Joe Arpaio. Gosar’s internal polling has him in the lead, ahead of Hay by a 30-10 margin. Primary voters would be doing themselves a favor by not nominating Hay; we’ll see if Gosar can live up to his polling. (JMD)

• AZ-03 (R): Crowded GOP primaries seem to be the norm in Arizona, with a 10-man field for the open seat of retiring GOPer John Shadegg. Several qualify beyond Some Dude status, including former northern Phoenix State Rep. Sam Crump, former State Senator Pamela Gorman (who represented the same district as Crump), former northern Phoenix/Scottsdale State Senator Jim Waring, attorney Paulina Morris, Paradise Valley Mayor Vernon Parker, and Parker’s predecessor as Mayor, Ed Winkler. The two largest warchests, however, belong to Ben “Son of Potatoe” Quayle and self-funding businessman Steve Moak. Moak and Quayle have gone hard after each other, with recent revelations about Quayle’s history with what eventually became TheDirty.com taking their toll and Quayle’s responses being, perhaps hereditarily, ineffectual. Moak seems ready to occupy the vacuum that Quayle’s implosion has left, but the sheer number of credible candidates leaves room for surprise. (JMD)

• AZ-05 (R): Two-term Dem Harry Mitchell will face one of five GOPers, a field that includes a rematch between 2008 candidates David Schweikert and Susan Bitter Smith. Schweikert prevailed then by a 1,000-vote margin out of 48,000 cast and went on to a 53-44 loss to Mitchell. Complicating this rematch are other credible candidates in doctor Chris Salvino and self-funded businessman Jim Ward, both of whom have outraised and outspent Bitter Smith. Schweikert seems to have assumed frontrunner status, going as far as cancelling his last-minute ad buy…before opting in for one again. Will Schweikert’s hubris come to haunt him today? (JMD)

• AZ-08 (R): In a common pattern that we’ve seen this cycle, the primary for the right to challenge sophomore Dem Gabby Giffords has a clear establishment v. outsider rift. However, there is only one teabagger here, Jesse Kelly, who squares off against the “establishment’s” former Tucson-area State Senator, Jonathan Paton. Perhaps owing to the fact that there’s only one teabaggish-type here, Kelly seems to be favored against Paton, posting a hefty 36-17 lead in recent polling. However, this poll was taken before third wheel Brian Miller headed for the exit, endorsing Paton on his way out. Given Miller’s low share of support and Kelly’s sole claim to the Holy Teabag, we might finally see the upset of an NRCC golden child here. (JMD)

• FL-Gov (R): All good things must indeed come to an end – and I am going to be very sad when this primary is over. Until mid-April of this year, Bill McCollum, the colorless, unlikeable, ambiguously hairpieced state AG and former House impeachment manager, at least had one thing to keep his sorry ass happy at night: He was guaranteed to be the Republican nominee for governor of Florida. Then, a funny thing happened: Zillionaire asshole Rick Scott decided he wanted the nod more – a whole lot more. In fact, about $40 million more, which is what he and allied groups (aka his wife’s checkbook) have spent on the race. McCollum and his allies (if you can imagine such a thing), undoubtedly stunned to have to start spending so early, have fired back, but they’ve only mustered some $14 million. (Check out this great graphic of both camps’ spending.)

Anyhow, this race has gone more negative than googolplex divided by minus one. There isn’t much consensus among pollsters on how much damage has been done to both candidates (some show McCollum with worse favorables, others show Scott deep in the doghouse), but I’m going to guess the answer is “a lot.” There’s also some divergence over who the frontrunner actually is. For a while there, Billy Mac’s toplines utterly bombed – you can almost see him in his kitchen, sobbing into his cornflakes, as your eyes traverse that mid-July nosedive. But the problem with zillionaire assholes is that it’s very hard for them to stop being zillionaire assholes, and they’ve also probably done quite a few somethings to deserve that reputation in the first place. McCollum’s hit Scott hard over his ultra-shady past in the healthcare business, and while we can’t say for sure, it seems to have turned the race around. Most recent polls have show McCollum taking back the lead, with PPP’s seven-point Scott lead the main outlier.

It’s hard to know whom to root for, though. Do we take Scott, with his deeply tarnished background but willingness to spend every last dime, or McCollum, with his coffers depleted but less scandal-plagued and still the establishment favorite? I think we have to be happy no matter what happens. And either way, I can hear the sound of that cat fud tin popping open: McCollum’s already saying it would be “very difficult” for him to endorse Scott should he lose. Let’s only hope Scott is willing to return the favor! Anyhow, this one was definitely a primary for the ages. God bless you, Florida Republicans. (D)

• FL-Sen (D): Forget the actual Democratic candidates in this race — the real star of the summer-long Florida Democratic primary saga was not a person, but an inanimate object: Summerwind, the notorious party yacht belonging to billionaire scuzzball Jeff Greene (also known as the Levi Johnston of boats). If there was one factor that helped turn this race upside-down, it was the steady barrage of drug-fueled, vomit-caked, and used condom-strewn stories of Jeff Greene’s adventures on the high seas. Those stories, along with a barrage of hits against Greene’s shady practices as a derivatives pioneer, have completely stunted Greene’s momentum and returned the lead to congressman Kendrick Meek. A Meek primary win undoubtedly complicates things for Charlie Crist, who has to hope that he can marginalize the Democratic nominee in order to drink their milkshake steal their votes in November, but three-way races are notoriously difficult to forecast. (Oh, and as a footnote, technically, ex-Miami Mayor Maurice Ferre is still in this race, but his campaign has been totally eclipsed by the Jeff Greene freakshow.) (JL)

• FL-02 (D/R): Despite that Rep. Allen Boyd is a pretty entrenched Blue Dog facing a potentially hard race in November in this GOP-leaning Panhandle district, the real race to watch tonight is the Democratic primary. Boyd faces a challenge from the left from term-limited state Senate majority leader Al Lawson. Lawson isn’t a raging liberal himself (and, unlike many Dem primary challenges this year, Boyd deprived him of a key piece of ammo by voting “yes” on the second round of health care reform), but he’s hoping that the fact that the district’s Democratic electorate, which is substantially African-American, can keep him competitive with the much-better-funded Boyd. Lawson posted a small lead in an internal poll way back in Nov. 2009, but we haven’t heard any polling details about the primary since then. The likeliest GOP nominee is funeral home owner Steve Southerland, whose fundraising has been adequate enough for the NRCC’s Young Guns program and who even put out an internal also showing him leading Boyd. However, there are four other even-less-known GOPers standing in Southerland’s way in the primary (with David Scholl the best fundraiser of the bunch, although even he hasn’t broken into the six digits). (C)

• FL-05 (R): I don’t know about you, but I’ve got a bad case of Cat Scratch Fever, and there’s only one cure… a primary victory tonight by the Rock ‘n’ Roll Sheriff, the Hernando County Madman, the Ten Terrible Fingers of Local Law Enforcement: Richard Nugent. Current Republican Rep. Ginny Brown-Waite, facing only an uneventful challenge from teabagger Jason Sager (whose impetus for getting into the race was Brown-Waite’s support for Dede Scozzafava!), unexpectedly bailed out on filing day, letting her designated successor Nugent pick up the flag and sneak into office without a top-drawer Republican opponent, of which there are potentially many in this red district. Nugent still has to get past Sager, though; we’ll have to see if Sager is beneficiary of people’s discontent over the “selection process.” (C)

• FL-08 (R): Rep. Alan Grayson should be a tempting target, given his shoot-from-the-hip style and his freshman-in-a-swing-district status, but his huge stash of netroots cash seemed an active deterrent as the NRCC tried vainly to find a top-tier recruit. Eventually, they settled on businessman Bruce O’Donoghue, who had some self-funding potential, as their go-to guy. Unfortunately, one of the other guys they’d been unenthusiastically flirting with, social conservative state Rep. Kurt Kelly, decided he was going to get in anyway, and that was compounded by the fact that attorney/talk radio host Todd Long, who nearly beat then-Rep. Ric Keller in the ’08 GOP primary, wasn’t going away. Finally, the guy they wanted all along but who initially blew them off, state Sen. Daniel Webster, decided he wanted to run after all, but came back much too belatedly to clear the field or even get much of a fundraising foothold. Webster does have some key backers (Mike Huckabee, Jeb Bush), but with not so much as a leaked internal of the primary from any of the players, there’s no clue as to whether he’ll emerge from tonight’s primary. (C)

• FL-17 (D): This nine-way primary to succeed Kendrick Meek has largely been off the  national radar – and that’s too bad, because it probably represented a good chance for progressive groups to get involved, seeing as it’s an 87% Obama district. In any event, the race features several elected officials, a local community figure, and one wealthy self-funder with a proverbial “colorful past,” Rudy Moise. The only recent poll of the race was taken on behalf of a group supporting activist Marleine Bastien, which had her at 22, while state Sen. Frederica Wilson was at 21. Moise was back at 10, and Miami Gardens Mayor Shirley Gibson was at 9. No one (apart from Moise) has raised much, with state Rep. Yolly Robertson leading the pack at $336K. The Miami Herald has a helpful run-down on each of the candidates in this wide-open race. (D)

• FL-24 (R): National Republicans have run through a succession of favored candidates in this primary, starting with former Winter Park Commissioner Karen Diebel. Diebel turned out to be crazy (in a call to 911 a few years ago, she said political opponents placed a snake in her pool – and were spying on her home and hacking her computer), so attention turned to state Rep. Sandy Adams. Adams, however, turned out to be a sucky fundraiser, so the GOP recruited Ruth’s Chris Steakhouse chief Craig Miller, a first-time candidate. Miller has self-funded less than you might have expected (only about $350K), which might explain his last-minute mailer attacking Diebel’s sanity over the Snakes In A Pool incident. If Miller hasn’t in fact sealed the deal, then race could be very much up in the air, especially since we haven’t seen any recent polling. (D)

• FL-25 (R): State Rep. David Rivera, despite a week of horrible press, is still the favorite for the Republican nomination to succeed district-hopping GOP Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, but it will still be interesting to see if any of the ugly headlines will make a dent at the ballot box. First, we learned that Rivera once ran a truck off the road back in 2002 because it was carrying flyers printed for his opponent, in the hopes of preventing it from reaching the post office on time. Next, Rivera’s Republican opponents have resurrected allegations that Rivera was involved in a domestic violence dispute. Damaging as stories like those may be, Rivera enjoys a huge fundraising lead over attorney Mariana “Marili” Cancio and Marine Corps veteran and public-relations consultant Paul Crespo. The real fireworks will have to wait for November, where the GOP nominee will face Tea Partier Roly Arrojo, Whig nominee (!!) Craig Porter, and ’08 candidate Joe Garcia, who is the heavy favorite to beat union leader Luis Meurice for the Democratic nod tonight. (JL)

• OK-02 (R): The last we checked in on this race, underfunded GOPers Charles Thompson and Daniel Edmonds received 34% and 28% respectively, setting the stage for a runoff. Both candidates seem to have improved their financial position, with Edmonds now able to claim $1,300 in his campaign account and Thompson up to a whopping $13k! Given this, whoever stumbles out of the runoff tomorrow will end up quite the underdog to incumbent (and oft-frustrating) Dem Dan Boren. (JMD)

• OK-05 (R): In the first round, Christian camp director Jim Lankford edged out establishment pick former State Rep. Kevin Calvey, 34-32, a development that left some at NRCC headquarters scratching their heads. Third-place finisher State Rep. Mike Thompson, who earned 18%, has endorsed Lankford and not his former colleague. This just might give Lankford’s more grassroots-oriented campaign the extra push it needs to overcome Calvey’s financial advantage; since we last checked in, Calvey’s plunked out $780k’s to Lankfords $415k. While November in this district won’t likely be exciting, true SwingNuts would never give up a chance to see egg on the NRCC’s face. (JMD)

• VT-Gov (D): Democrats have a challenge ahead of them in knocking off reasonably well-liked Republican Brian Dubie in November, but they have a giant, five-way primary to get through first. The players include former Lt. Gov. Doug Racine, Secretary of State Deb Markowitz, state Sens. Peter Shumlin and Susan Bartlett, and ex-state Rep. Matt Dunne. Markowitz and Shumlin have had the strongest fundraising, while Bartlett has raised the least of the major players. Without any public polling of the Democratic primary — or even a leaked internal — it’s impossible to say what will happen here. (JL)