Month: March 2011

An absolutely mammoth-sized digest for your enjoyment today. You can return the favor by following us on Twitter or liking us on Facebook!

• FL-Sen: Remember that beyond-pathetic non-book that Mike Haridopolos “wrote” for Brevard Community College – a work so bad that the school was too embarrassed to ever even publish it? (Sample observation: politicians should carry cell phones. Political GOLD.) Actually, I lied – it’s now available to anyone with a Kindle and enough ingrown stupidity to spent $9.99 on it. But none of this, believe it or not, is even the reason for this bullet. Rather, the Miami Herald points out that in 2006 and 2009, Haridopolos directed a total of $3.1 million in the state budget toward none other than Brevard Community College. Payback for that payback sure is turning out to be a bitch, huh?

• HI-Sen: KHON2 has a rundown of the federal bank accounts of potential contenders for Dan Akaka’s now-open Senate seat. Here’s one odd thing: Charles Djou still has a quarter million bucks left over. What on earth did he do that for?

• MA-Sen: Mutual fund executive Robert Pozen says he isn’t running for Senate – “unless the Democratic Party asks me to.” Considering he served as an advisor to Mitt Romney and worked on a George W. Bush Social Security panel which recommended privatization, I’m gonna guess that he’ll be waiting by the phone for quite a while.

• MI-Sen: In response to a Facebook page trying to draft him, a spokesman for uber-teabagger Justin Amash says that he “is not contemplating a Senate run.” This also confirms a pet theory of mine, which is that if you want to grab a candidate’s attention and get him or her on the record as to whether they’ll seek a higher office, all you need to do is create a Facebook page, sign up a few people (Amash’s has just 130 “likes”), and spread the word a bit (either to the media or the candidate directly) – and bam, you’ll get an answer.

• NJ-Sen: Several states to the east, another teabagger favorite – one with a lot less to lose – is steeping a different bag of darjeeling. Anna Little, who lost to Rep. Frank Pallone last year after upsetting a wealthy establishment-type candidate in the GOP primary, says she’s considering a run against Bob Menendez. She’s previously said she wants to take on Pallone in a rematch, so who knows what she’ll wind up doing.

• NM-Sen: Alright, it’s not quite the horse’s mouth, but politically speaking, it’s just as good: A spokesperson for Republican Lt. Gov. John Sanchez says his boss is “seriously considering” running for Senate. He’d provide a conservative alternative to Heather Wilson (who made her entry official today), and he’s also personally wealthy and has self-funded in the past.

• NV-Sen: This would make life a hell of a lot more interesting: Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki, who contemplated a Senate run last cycle, says he’s considering a bid to succeed John Ensign. The fact that Krolicki is openly declaring this suggests to me he’s not afraid of going head-to-head with Rep. Dean Heller in the GOP primary – and that perhaps the idea of Heller being some kind of Republican steamroller is a bit overblown.

• OH-Sen: We’ve mentioned this guy before, but the WaPo has a longish profile of 33-year-old Republican state Treasurer Josh Mandel, who won election just last year and hasn’t ruled out a Senate run. The piece claims that Mandel has cross-party appeal, but it also quotes a teabagger leader who says Mandel is “just great on the issues and has been right from the start.” Both of these things cannot be simultaneously true.

Somewhat related, Greg Giroux helpfully provides a breakdown of last year’s gubernatorial and senate results from Ohio by congressional district.

• RI-Sen, RI-01: Scott MacKay at WNRI (a local NPR station) has a helpful backgrounder on Brendan Doherty, the state police chief who abruptly announced his resignation the other day and is thought to be contemplating a run for federal office this cycle. MacKay makes the argument that Rep. David Cicilline may present a more tempting target than Sheldon Whitehouse, largely due to the fallout from Providence’s financial troubles (the city where Cicilline was mayor until getting elected to the House).

• TX-Sen: I don’t think it’ll move any votes, but it’s a signal: Sen. Mike Lee of Utah – who may represent the purest, most highly distilled strain of teabagger – just endorsed Ted Cruz for Senate. But note the item just below – Lee won’t endorse his fellow Utahn Orrin Hatch for re-election.

• UT-Sen: While we’re on the theme of Utah and teabaggers, I actually think Orrin Hatch is being pretty smart here, Lee’s non-endorsement non-withstanding. I mean, his attempts to prove fealty to the insane-o-philes are brutally embarrassing, but they may just save his hide – which is all he cares about. His latest effort involves trying to hire prominent teabaggers as organizers for his campaign (for $2,500 a month). The Salt Lake Tribune talked to two people Hatch had reached out to – one took the job, the other liked the offer to bribery. I would have expected Republicans to appreciate the virtues of selling out a little more, but then again, the true believers usually get left out in the cold. (An aside: The article also mentions another possible challenger to Hatch, state Sen. Dan Liljenquist.)

• VA-Sen: PPP has some numbers out for the Democratic “primary” in Virginia – and I put that word in quotation marks because really, if Tim Kaine runs, no one else will, and if he doesn’t, it’s a totally different ballgame. Anyhow, Kaine is the wide favorite of Virginia Dems, to absolutely no one’s surprise. In related news, Mike Signer, a Democrat who got crushed in the primary for the party’s Lt. Gov. nomination in 2009, says he won’t run for Senate, either (or state Senate, but there’s talk he might run for AG in 2013).

• MO-Gov: Dave Catanese has some bits and pieces from a poll by Republican pollster Public Opinion Strategies, the most interesting one of which is Gov. Jay Nixon’s saintly 61-26 job approval rating. I’ve gotta believe the poll included head-to-heads with super-likely opponent Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder (R), but they don’t seem to have been made available.

• WV-Gov: The Democratic Executive Committee of Charleston (the state’s capital and largest city) hosted a gubernatorial straw poll over the weekend, and state Treasurer John Perdue came in first with 25% of the vote in a tight field. House Speaker Rick Thompson got 24, Acting Senate President Jeff Kessler 22, Secretary of State Natalie Tennant 21, and Acting Governor Earl Ray Tomblin just 6.

• CA-36: Yet another Republican has joined the field in the special election to replace Jane Harman: Hermosa Beach City Councilman (and attorney, and Air Force vet) Kit Bobko is now the third GOPer in the race. Is this all part of some super-genious plan? Anyway, at least one Republican is getting out of the way: former Rep. Steve Kuykendall (who beat Janice Hahn to serve a single term in 1998, when the seat was last open, only to lose when Jane Harman – the previous occupant – victoriously returned in 2000) says he won’t run because he’s convinced the district will be “gone” after redistricting.

• CA-41: Not long ago, we speculated that the mopey Jerry Lewis might be contemplating retirement, seeing how he got passed over for key leadership spots and had just a few rusty nickels in his campaign account. Well, thanks to the Sunlight Foundation’s cool new “Political Party Time” website, we know that Lewis is hosting a high-dollar DC fundraiser next week, so perhaps he’s gearing up again. Still, he ain’t comin’ off our watch list just yet.

• Iowa: It really sounds like former Iowa first lady Christie Vilsack is gearing up to run for the House. As the Des Moines Register notes, she quit her job at a non-profit last week, and has been meeting with political operatives and party regulars. As pretty much everyone has noted, though, where the heck will she run? Iowa’s losing a seat (going from five to four), and has three incumbent Democrats. This isn’t a game of musical chairs so much as it is Rock ‘Em Sock ‘Em Robots.

• MO-03, MO-LG: Missouri’s Lt. Gov. spot is expected to be open (see the MO-Gov item above w/r/t Peter Kinder), but even if it isn’t, Dems still need a candidate. One possibility is 3rd CD Rep. Russ Carnahan, who may get drawn into oblivion. Other possibilities include former State Sen. Wes Shoemyer (who lost his senate seat last year) and State Rep. Sara Lampe.

• NJ-02: Andrew McCrosson, treasurer to Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R) for fifteen years, just plead guilty to embezzling over $450,000 from his boss’s campaign accounts, going back at least half a decade. Reminds of a very similar thing which happened to ex-Rep. Chris Shays.

• NY-26: Gov. Andrew Cuomo says he’ll announce the date of the special election here “later this week.” That means we’ll have an election around two-and-a-half months from now. Some cat fud just got stuffed back into the tin, though (but it was expected): Conservative Party chair Mike Long just announced he’s backing Republican nominee Jane Corwin. That more-or-less means his party’s meeting to announce a formal endorsement next week is a foregone conclusion.

As a result, teabagging Iraq vet David Bellavia now says he’s not sure if he’ll make an independent bid, citing the daunting task of collecting 3,500 signatures in the twelve days after Cuomo announces. But wait! Crazy Jack Davis says he’ll spend $3 million of his own money pursuing an independent bid. Hopefully he’ll run wildly to the right, but regrettably, his three runs on the Democratic ticket might mean he’ll claw more votes from our side than theirs.

• IL Redistricting: Gov. Pat Quinn just signed a new law requiring that racial or language minority communities not get split up when drawing state legislative lines. This measure was pushed in part by leaders in Chicago’s Chinatown, who didn’t want their neighborhood chopped up between districts once again.

• Special Elections: Johnny-Longtorso-on-the-spot:

Another light week; there are technically four specials tonight, but two are unopposed: Tennessee’s HD-98, a Democratic hold, and Virginia’s HD-91, a Republican hold. The two contested elections are Tennessee’s SD-18, freshman Rep. Diane Black’s district, a safe Republican seat; and Arkansas’ HD-24, where the Republican candidate died before the 2010 election, but was elected posthumously, so the seat ended up vacant. The latter might be interesting, given the Democrats’ recent troubles – it was held by a Dem who was term-limited prior to the deceased Republican winning it last year.

That Arkansas special has gotten exceedingly vile: A member of the Garland County Republican Committee has been sending around emails attacking Dem Jerry Rephan as “a pro-abortion Jewish lawyer” and emphasizing the need to support Republican Bruce Cozart because he’s a “Christian.”

• Wisconsin Recall: In a really interesting article, Craig Gilbert of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel observes that recall efforts are now underway against 16 state senators – 8 Dems and 8 Republicans – something that appears to be unprecedented in scope, pretty much anywhere. The largest number of state legislator recalled at the same time for the same reason? Two, on three separate occasions in three different states. One other detail: The number of signatures required varies from 11,817 in Dem-held SD-06 to 20,973 in GOP-controlled SD-28. But the whole piece is worth a read.

• WATN?: Several entries in the “Where Are They Now?” Dept. today. Democratic ex-Rep. Brad Ellsworth (IN-08) will become president of Vectren Corp.’s Indiana gas utility division in May. Democratic ex-Rep. Paul Hodes (NH-02) says he’s starting a new firm to help New Hampshire companies “that need a better understanding of Washington.” Hodes is being very careful not to call himself a lobbyist, since he’s barred from that activity for a year; his comments (and his new choice of career) suggest he’s not planning a return to politics. And finally, Republican ex-Rep. Ginny Brown-Waite (FL-05), who announced her retirement last year on the day of the filing deadline, says her health has improved (that was, she says, her reason for stepping down in the first place) and that she wants to run for office again. She’s not sure exactly what office, though, and she won’t decide until the middle of this year.

You may remember my quick calculation of PVI-based vulnerability estimates for the recall-eligible state senators of Wisconsin.  There, I used the Obama numbers for my calculations.

Well, the Milwaukee, Wisconsin Journal Sentinel has the gubernatorial numbers by senate district.  As a bonus finding, they also mention that Darling, Kapanke, Hopper, and Holperin had close races in 2008.

Enjoy.  One of you should go do a quick PVI calculation using the gube results as well, for each of the 16 recall-eligible districts.  I’m heading to bed for now since it’s past 1:30 AM.

I just wish I could see ten different ways of dealing with the Democrats in the Triad, rather than ten different variations that all deal with them the same way: using NC-12.

roguemapper

Two of the most recent NC redistricting diaries have featured roguemapper’s cri de couer against I-85-based NC-12s in their comments. Here, I’m only delivering two different ways of dealing with the Triad Dems instead of ten. I hope the comment section will make up for the missing eight.

The argument against an I-85-based NC-12 is threefold: (1) it was upheld in the courts as a partisan-based and not minority-based gerrymander; (2) creating a minority-majority NC-12 barely requires leaving Charlotte, let alone Mecklenburg County; and (3) state Republicans have said they don’t want one. I’m currently too lazy to source any of those statements and I’m not interested in arguing them. My purpose is to discuss North Carolina maps that treat that argument as true. Think about it like a move trailer, if it helps:

(booming movie announcer voice) In a world where North Carolina Republicans are committed to a compact, Charlotte-based, minority-majority NC-12… (/booming movie announcer voice)

I’m presenting two maps here. One is an  unaggressive and therefore unlikely map that cuts out Kissell but gives the Democrats a new district in the Triad. (It’s also got retrogression issues.) I’m posting it because I think it’s an interesting baseline for what a minimally gerrymandered map could look like. There’s a grand total of ten counties statewide that are split between two or more districts. The other is an extremely aggressive map which creates 10 McCain districts.

Pictures and discussion are after the jump.

(Note: I don’t generally like changing colors, because I’m used to the defaults and I assume others are too. But there are too many blues in the first 13 colors for a NC map. On the first map, NC-08 is Beige. On the second map, NC-12 is Beige.)

Map One

Not much to say about this one. It’s my best attempt to use county integrity as my first priority, with partisan effects as my second. All six Republicans should be fine in districts that McCain carried by at least 9 points by at least 5 pts. Correction: The preceding sentence was incorrect. My 8PVI rating means that McCain did at least 9 pts better than he did nationally in all six Republican districts, but that only means that he won them by at least 5 points, not 9. The seven Democrats have a more varied range of impacts. Shuler and Miller are in districts that are about one point more McCain-friendly. McIntyre’s district gets a seven point boost in Obama-friendliness. Kissell’s district is axed and relocated to the Triad. Miller and Watt hold steady.

NC-01, obviously, would be contentious. There are retrogression concerns in having it become majority-white in terms of VAP (total population it’s merely plurality white). It’s also lost about six points worth of Obama-friendliness. Something like this would require a Republican legislature that’s willing to test the bounds what the courts will let them get away with. If they were willing to adopt the rest of the map (not likely), some playing around with borders of NC-01 and NC-03 should be able to result in better districts for both Jones and Butterfield and satisify retrogression concerns.  (Note that this map has Jones drawn out of his district.)

I don’t actually endorse this version of NC-01 — again, this particular map is meant to be a baseline for county-integrity. This is important primarily because the Republicans in charge of redistricting have been talking a big game about a clean map. I wanted something to be able to compare to their eventual map.

Map Two

There should be more to say about this one, since it is an actual proposal. But I’m tired, so I’m going to let the pictures tell most of the story. This is, ostensibly, a 10-3 map. Note that is a fairly clean map as well, with a total of 19 counties split between two or more districts.

The three Democratic districts are Durham + the core of the old First, Greensboro + Chapel Hill + downtown Raleigh, and Charlotte. Foxx’s district is red enough to absorb all of Winston-Salem easily. McHenry’s is likewise red enough to absorb Asheville.

I’ve lumped two incumbent Democrats into one uber-Democratic seat in the north and two incumbent Democrats into one fairly-Republican seat in the south. I’m curious how the primary process would play out in this NC-04.

There are two new Republican open seats. Note how evenly spread Republican strength is — all in the McCain +7 to +12 range.

Update: Re-reading my diary, I realized that I incorrectly described the meaning of my 8PVI rating. I’ve struck through and corrected a sentence up in the Map One section. 8PVI is based on Cook PVI but only uses 2008 voting data. It’s a measure of how much better Obama or McCain did in a jurisdiction than they did nationwide. The nationwide balance was 53.5 Obama to 46.5 McCain. So O+10 means Obama won a jurisdiction 63.5 to 36.5. M+5 means McCain won a jurisdiction 51.5 to 48.5.

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Since Obama managed to win Nebraska’s second congressional district 3 years ago I’ve been wondering just how Democratic a district it is possible to make in Nebraska. With the new census data becoming available, now seemed as good a time as any to find out! As Dave’s Redistricting App doesn’t include partisan data for Nebraska I tabulated each precinct by hand.

CD1 Blue

57% Obama 43% McCain, 71/11/12 W/B/H

The Democratic district stretches predictably enough from Omaha to Lincoln and on into Saline county. While it certainly isn’t the most Democratic congressional district going around it is pretty darn blue for Nebraska and the right kind of Democrat could do very well here.  

CD2 Green

39% Obama 61% McCain, 90/2/5 W/B/H

The non-CD1 parts of south-east Nebraska.

CD3 Dark magenta

30% Obama 70% McCain, 85/1/11 W/B/H

The rest of Nebraska.

Braun Research for cn|2 (2/28-3/1, likely voters, Sept. 2010 in parens):

Steve Beshear (D-inc): 48 (44)

David Williams (R): 38 (38)

Undecided: 13 (15)

Steve Beshear (D-inc): 53 (49)

Phil Moffett: 28 (29)

Undecided: 17 (19)

Steve Beshear (D-inc): 53

Bobbie Holsclaw: 27

Undecided: 19

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Those trendlines are pretty ancient (more than half a year old), yet little seems to have changed since last September. These numbers look quite good for incumbent Dem Steve Beshear, and in fact aren’t too far off from PPP’s late October survey. One note of caution, though, is that Braun’s Kentucky polls were fairly favorable to Dems last cycle; their final KY-Sen numbers showed Rand Paul up seven (he won by 11.5).

Braun didn’t test the GOP primary, but state Senate President David Williams (running on a ticket with the perfectly named Ag. Comm’r Richie Farmer) is widely considered to be the frontrunner. In an internal poll from last month, Williams’ ticket took 47% to just 9% for teabagging businessman Phil Moffett and 10% for Jefferson Co. Clerk Bobbie Holsclaw, the only woman in the race. We haven’t seen any other responsive internals which might contradict this one… though hope always springs eternal. Still, don’t hold your breath for too long – the Hotline takes a long look at the many ways in which Moffett’s candidacy differs from Paul’s, and I’m inclined to agree with most of them. In particular, note that Paul himself says he won’t endorse in the primary.

This poll also included a test of the Kentucky Attorney General’s race, which gives us a good chance to check up on our old buddy Jack Conway:

Jack Conway (D-inc): 52

Todd P’Pool (R): 33

Undecided: 14

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Conway looks to have a very nice lead over Vulcan ambassador Hopkins County Attorney Todd P’Pool. P’Pool was more of a second choice after SoS Trey Grayson, who lost the 2010 GOP senate primary to (of course) Rand Paul), decided Harvard was a better fit for him than the Bluegrass State.

Retirement season is in full swing in the Senate, and it’s looking like we’ll soon have one more. Unfortunately, it’s one where Dems would probably be better served running against the badly damaged incumbent, John Ensign, than the likely Republican replacement (Rep. Dean Heller).

Sen. John Ensign is expected to announce at an afternoon news conference in Las Vegas that he will retire rather than face a brutal 2012 re-election campaign, according to knowledgeable sources.

The news conference is set for noon (Pacific time); I suppose it’s possible the multiple sources are wrong. The real question, at this point, is how long it takes post-conference for Heller to announce… and then, what does potential Dem candidate Rep. Shelley Berkley do, now that she faces a much less appealing race against Heller?

UPDATE: With the news conference underway, Ensign confirms that he’s retiring in 2012, but won’t resign and will finish his term “in strong fashion.” He was planning on running again as recently as last week he says, but, in the end, couldn’t put his family through it. Jon Ralston’s reaction?

Ensign puts family first after polls show he has no chance, Heller all but in, ethics panel ramps up probe and money slows down.

(Originally from Nevada Progressive)

We see money scandals. We see discussions behind closed doors. And we see outrageous talk on some awfully funny issues.

Oh, and we hear about conflicting poll data.

But wait, what about us?  

Yesterday, I was out walking in Sun City Anthem with Sam Bateman, one of the candidates for Henderson City Council. What I heard up the hill yesterday was quite interesting. Despite who held which title and who’s on whose team, people are still making up their minds.

This seemed to confirm what I’ve heard from friends and family around these parts. They’re looking at failed development projects and wondering how to clean up the mess. They’re looking at the challenge ahead of balancing redevelopment needs Downtown with ensuring other parts of town continue to age gracefully. They’re looking at the city budget and want to make sure their tax dollars are being spent wisely.

And despite how some might interpret recent name recognition polls, a number of voters have yet to make up their minds.

And I suspect we’re seeing similar dynamics at play in Las Vegas.

So who’s listening to us? This may be the critical question going into the primary, which actually starts with early voting this month.

Who’s listening to us? Who’s doing the most voter outreach? Who’s paying attention to what potential constituents are saying? Even in this age of digital everything, those regular one-on-one conversations with real people will likely make the difference, more so than any TV ad, mailer, or flashy event.