Maryland Redistricting Map

I’ve always hated Maryland’s extreme gerrymander, so I wanted to try and create a map that is more compact than the current one, but still provides a 7-1 Democratic advantage.  

Goals:

-Keep counties together as much as possible

-Keep two VRA districts

-Pack as many Republicans as possible into MD 6

-Maximize the Dem vote in the other 7 districts without having too many excess votes in the most Democratic ones

I did not however try to account for where the current Representatives live or where the majority of their current constituency resides, although I did keep the same general geographical location of each of the 8 districts.

1st District

The 1st District is really the target of this exercise, and becomes more Democratic by shedding territory in the northeast Baltimore suburbs and extending westward into heavily Dem eastern Prince George’s County.  If I wasn’t as concerned about geographic continuity it could actually extend further west to the DC border to pick up the excess Dem vote from MD-4 and shed more territory in the NE corner of the state to MD-6.  As it is, this becomes a district that would have gone 53% for Obama.  Certainly not a safe Democratic seat, but definitely an improvement over the current map and one where we would have a leg up.  

Louisiana Redistricting: Legislature Reaches Agreement, Governor Will Sign

A deal is done in Lousiana, too:

The House on Wednesday voted 63-35 to approve a congressional redistricting plan, sending it to Gov. Bobby Jindal who is expected to sign it.

About 90 minutes earlier, the Senate voted 25-13 for the measure. …

The redistricting vote came on House Bill 6 by Rep. Erich Ponti, R-Baton Rouge, after three hours of debate and most amendments being rejected. Ponti asked the House to approve the Senate-made changes to his bill when the House took it up shortly before 2 p.m. …

Ponti’s bill keeps in place two north Louisiana-based congressional districts that run from the Arkansas border into Acadiana and the Florida parishes on the east and almost to Lake Charles on the west.

UPDATE: Apologies for the confusion – but then again, what isn’t confusing when it comes to Louisiana politics? I believe that the correct maps (and population breakdowns) are contained in this file (PDF). This is the overview:

Click the link above for detail insets of places like New Orleans. Racial breakdowns are below:

















































































































































District Total Pop. White Black Asian Indian Other Hispanic Registered
LA-01 755,557 598,443 104,671 16,848 15,103 20,492 52,377 449,535
100.0% 79.2% 13.9% 2.2% 2.0% 2.7% 6.9% 77.7%
LA-02 755,538 236,430 475,543 20,562 4,039 18,964 43,372 448,947
100.0% 31.3% 62.9% 2.7% 0.5% 2.5% 5.7% 78.8%
LA-03 755,596 532,798 194,139 11,486 6,003 11,170 23,014 458,419
100.0% 70.5% 25.7% 1.5% 0.8% 1.5% 3.0% 81.6%
LA-04 755,605 462,166 263,408 8,765 10,324 10,942 24,176 432,023
100.0% 61.2% 34.9% 1.2% 1.4% 1.4% 3.2% 76.2%
LA-05 755,581 466,461 271,034 6,127 5,780 6,179 15,321 450,681
100.0% 61.7% 35.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 2.0% 79.4%
LA-06 755,495 539,894 178,090 17,763 5,304 14,444 34,300 440,770
100.0% 71.5% 23.6% 2.4% 0.7% 1.9% 4.5% 77.2%

Arkansas Redistricting: Legislature Reaches Agreement, Governor Will Sign

It’s a done deal:

The state Senate gave final approval to a congressional redistricting plan today and sent the bill to the governor for his signature.

Gov. Mike Beebe has said he will sign the bill, which divides five counties, including Sebastian and Jefferson, between districts but keeps Fayetteville, Fort Smith and Russellville in the 3rd Congressional District and keeps Pine Bluff in the 4th District. …

Under SB 972 and HB 1836, Jefferson County would be split between the 4th and 1st districts, Crawford, Newton and Sebastian counties between the 3rd and 4th districts, and Searcy County between the 3rd and 1st districts.

Also, Madison, Franklin and Johnson counties would move to from the 3rd to the 4th District, Yell County would move from the 2nd to the 4th and Lincoln, Desha and Chicot counties would move from the 4th to the 1st.

The legislature has now recessed, so there’s definitely no going back. Here’s the new map, which eliminates the “Fayetteville Finger”:

ARDem at Blue Arkansas thinks this is a sucky map, and blames Dems for caving. Considering we comfortably control the trifecta here, it sounds like we did a very lousy job.

SSP Daily Digest: 4/13

Senate:

HI-Sen: Sen. Dan Inouye says in a new interview that he “will not take sides in the primary,” and Politico ads that his “top aides insist” he won’t be lending quiet, behind-the-scenes support to any candidates either. I hope that’s true, since I was concerned Ed Case might have mended things with Inouye to the point that the latter might get behind the former. But without some special help, I think Case will have a hard time. Also, SMS Research took the most useless poll imaginable, pitting Case against former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann in a primary… and absolutely no one else. Whatevs.

ME-Sen: Olympia Snowe said she raised over $877K in Q1 and has over $2 million on hand.

OH-Sen: Sherrod Brown said he raised $1.3 million in Q1 and has $2.5 million on hand.

VA-Sen: George Allen said he raised $1.5 million in Q1 and has $1.25 million on hand.

Gubernatorial:

KY-Gov: TX Gov. Rick Perry, current chair of the RGA, says his organization won’t decide how heavily it’ll get involved in Kentucky’s gubernatorial race until after the May 17th primary. He also declined to endorse frontrunner (and establishment choice) David Williams, saying he’s “got a really good feeling about all the men and women who are running.”

House:

CO-04: Republican Rep. Corey Gardner apparently raised over $300K in Q1.

CT-04: Dem Rep. Jim Himes estimates he took in over $300K in Q1.

IN-06, IN-05: Luke Messer, a former official with the state GOP who nearly beat Rep. Dan Burton in a primary last year, now finds himself living just outside Burton’s 5th CD, according to new maps proposed by Republicans in charge of the state lege. Messer is now in the 6th, which is likely to be vacated by Mike Pence, who everyone thinks will run for governor. Messer says he’s buddies with Pence and will consider running to replace him if Pence makes the leap for the statehouse, but he wouldn’t rule out a rematch against Burton (though he says he wouldn’t move in order to do so).

MN-08: This is pretty wild: Former Rep. Rick Nolan (D) says he’s thinking about staging a comeback. It’s wild because Nolan left office in 1981 and is now 68 years old. It’s also rather strange because Nolan represented what was then the 6th CD, which is accurately represented in the map Joe Bodell presents. (His reader update is incorrect.) At the time, Nolan’s district covered the southwestern and central portions of the state; today’s 8th is in the northeastern corner (though they share one county in common, Mille Lacs). And to cap it all off, Nolan was touting himself at a Dem meeting in Bemidji, which is in the 7th CD. Actually, no – the real capper is that Nolan was a practitioner of the ’60s & ’70s fad of “Transcendental Meditation” (whose practitioners claimed they could levitate) and earned a mention in Time Magazine for it.

MO-03: Not going gently… or padding the warchest for a different race, or perhaps something else down the line? Russ Carnahan raised $333K in Q1, his best first quarter ever, and has $286K on hand. Dave Catanese notes that Lacy Clay raised just $17K (though he has $222K in the bank). Would Carnahan really go up against Clay in a primary? What do you think?

MS-02: Greenville Mayor Heather McTeer Hudson said she plans to challenge veteran Rep. Bennie Thompson in the Democratic primary next year. She also announced she’s hiring pollster Celinda Lake. Hudson had previously said she wouldn’t seek re-election to her current post. Thompson, meanwhile, ended last year with $1.7 million on hand and has warded off primary challengers before (most recently in 2006, in the form of Chuck Espy, son of former Rep. Mike Espy).

SD-AL: Though it seems all but certain that ex-Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin won’t seek a rematch this cycle (among other things, she just accepted a teaching position at South Dakota State University, where she once worked), she did say she’s open to the possibility of seeking office again at some point in the future. She didn’t specify what post, so you can mentally flag this item as something other than just SD-AL if you like. Speaking of SD-AL, Rep. Kristi Noem (the woman who beat Sandlin) announced she took in $396K in Q1.

Other Races:

LA-AG: Former Rep. Joe Cao says he plans to challenge Dem-cum-Republican AG Buddy Caldwell this fall. Cao specifically cited Caldwell’s party switch (which only happened in February) and questioned his Republican bona fides – sort of an unusual move in a state where party switching has been very common. We’ll see if he Cao actually has the chops to make a race of it. (Side note: A proud moment in SSP in-the-weeds history: Live-blogging the LA-AG runoff in 2007, when control of the state House was also at stake.)

MS-AG: A rare bright spot for Mississippi Dems: Attorney General Jim Hood leads Republican Steve Simpson by 49-32 margin in PPP’s latest poll.

Special Elections: From Johnny L-T:

Two of the three elections last night were landslides; in South Carolina’s SD-16, Republican Greg Gregory trounced Democrat Keith Brann and Libertarian Stan Smith by a 77-18-5 margin, while in Minnesota’s SD-66, DFLer Mary Jo McGuire beat Republican Greg Copeland 80-20. In Connecticut’s HD-128, Democrat Dan Fox won with 39%, while Republican Charles Pia (not Antonacci, my mistake) came in second with 24%. Independents John Mallozzi and Monique Thomas both made strong showings, pulling in 23% and 13%, respectively, and Green Rolf Maurer brought up the rear with about 1%. Note that Mallozzi failed to win the Democratic nomination, so he petitioned his way onto the ballot.

Remainders:

Pay-to-Play: MaryNYC, the First Lady of the Swing State Project (aka my wife), has an interesting backgrounder on the SEC’s new regulations which attempt to curtail Wall Street from engaging in “pay-to-play” with elected officials. What’s interesting about the rules is that they make it very difficult for employees of financial firms to donate to state and local officeholders who have a stake in municipal investment decisions, but generally speaking doesn’t affect donations to federal officeholders. So, in a hypothetical example, New Mexico state Auditor Hector Balderas, who is weighing a run for Senate, might find Wall Street’s doors shut, while Rep. Martin Heinrich, who is already in the race, would face no such problems.

Redistricting Roundup:

• Indiana: We’ll have a lengthier redistricting-only digest later today, but I wanted to bring you this information ASAP. A source involved in Indiana politics informs me that these are the Obama percentages for each CD in the new map proposed by Republicans in the state lege:

IN-01: 63.2

IN-02: 49.4

IN-03: 42.9

IN-04: 44.4

IN-05: 46.5

IN-06: 43.5

IN-07: 66.3

IN-08: 48.0

IN-09: 46.1

Crowdsourcing WI Sup. Ct. Results by Senate District

Wisconsin’s election bureau, the GAB, has made precinct results available for the Supreme Court race for all but three counties. We’re trying to match these results up with state Senate districts. Jeff and I took a couple of passes at it, and you can see what we’ve done so far on Google Docs. Supreme Court race results are in the first tab, and district locations are in the second tab. Highlighted column K in the first tab is where things stand at the moment, but you’ll see there are still a number of “#N/A” errors. These can either be corrected manually (if people have the time & inclination), or perhaps they can be solved programmatically, if there are any Excel geniuses out there. (The problem lies in split municipalities – wards are often broken up differently in the Supreme Court data than they are in the district locations data in the second tab.)

Anyhow, if you’re interested, please take a look and see if you can’t help us polish this data set off. This information will be very valuable in the coming recall elections.

My first stab at Congressional Redistricting in Florida (Part 3: Southwest Florida & Heartlands)

Southwest Florida

FL-13 (Rep. Vern Buchanan, R-Sarasota), Pale Pink

It gains retiree heavy, fairly conservative southern Hillsborough County suburbs and keeps DeSoto and Hardee counties.  All of Manatee County is now in this district.  The coastal (down to Siesta Key) and the politically moderate northern portions of Sarasota County remains here as well (For those unfamiliar with Sarasota County politics, areas north of Clark Road in Sarasota are generally considered less conservative, and HD-69 in Florida’s State House of Representative, held by Sarasota Democrat Keith Fitzgerald for two terms until his 2010 defeat, covers much of this territory).  The more suburban and conservative portion of Sarasota County and its Charlotte County portion are cast off to my new FL-26.  

It is the coastal bastions of Country-Club Republicanism in Manatee and Sarasota counties, the moderate portions of the city of Sarasota and the residual ethical questions with Buchanan that prevents me from calling this district Safe Republican, and Fitzgerald would be the only Democratic candidate who would be remotely competitive in this district.  Likely Republican.

FL-14 (Rep. Connie Mack IV, R-Fort Myers), Olive

It is removed from Charlotte County and loses a northeastern chunk of Lee County to FL-26, but reunites Collier County with the portion from FL-25.  Still one of the most Republican districts in the state.  Safe Republican.

FL-16 (Rep. Tom Rooney, R-Tequesta), Mint Green,

This is one of two districts I am least satisfied with (The other is my FL-26).  It now unites the Treasure Coast, taking Indian River County from FL-15 and portions of St. Lucie and Martin counties from FL-23.  It also loses most of Okeechobee County to FL-15 and its portion of Hendry County, plus parts of  Glades and Highlands (Lake Placid and parts of Sebring)  counties to FL-26.  Finally, it is totally removed from Charlotte County (also ceding its portion to FL-26).  With St. Lucie being the only swing county in this district, only a moderate Democrat hailing from there, possibly St. Lucie County Sheriff Ken Mascara, can make the race competitive.  Likely Republican.

FL-26 (NEW SEAT), Grey

Population growth in Southwest Florida is likely to result in one of the two new districts to be located in this area.  My FL-26 is such a district.  It takes all of Charlotte County (from FL-13, FL-14 and FL-16), the adjoining portions of Sarasota and Lee counties from FL-13 and FL-14 respectively.  It also takes most of Hendry County and parts of Glades and Highlands counties.  Expect a melee between Republicans from southern Sarasota County (like State Rep. Doug Holder, HD-70, R-Sarasota), Charlotte County (like former State Rep. Michael Grant, HD-71, R-Port Charlotte and State Rep. Paige Kreegel, HD-72, R-Punta Gorda) and Lee County (like former Lt. Governor Jeff Kottkamp) or even Highlands County.  Safe Republican.

My partisan count for this seats: 4R.

Overall partisan count so far are 14R, 3D, 2 swing.

South Florida seats (FL 17-23 and FL-25) up next.

31, Male, Independent, MS-02 (Hometown FL-19)

aawa

Raise Your Hands: How Many Knew There are Really Four Budget Proposals?

The deal hatched at the eleventh hour last Friday night added $38 billion to the “compromise” (er, extortion) the House Republicans had extracted last winter by virtue of making the Bush tax cuts permanent.  This was before the new Congress was even sworn in (i.e., Dems were still in charge, but President Obama lert the GOP call the shots anyway.  The most recent “deal” had barely been struck when the so-called MSM began trumping the next round, the 2012 Ryan Trainwreck acting as if Paul Ryan’s “budget” was the only game in town.  It never was.  Yet, as Jeffrey Sach’s notes, the current budget has been a “dialogue among the wealthy.”  But as Sachs points out, there really four budgets bandied about.  Who knew?  Certainly, the so-called MSM has said little to nothing about any options besides the Ryan sham of a “budget.” And its parroting of the corporate line is predictable but nonetheless scandalous. Let’s look at the four alternate realities described in the “plans.”

The Ryan Sham So-Called Budget

So, we’ll deal with extremist Ryan first.  Dean Baker ended a commentary by saying this:

And the pundits call Ryan’s plan “serious.” Yes, it is very serious. It is a serious plan for taking tens of trillions of dollars from low-income and middle-income people and giving them away as tax breaks to the rich and to the health care industry. It is about as serious as a robber with a gun pointed at your head.

As I have mentioned elsewhere on BV, this plan can be summarized by two numbers.  $4.2 Trillion in cuts coming out of the hide of the poor, the elderly and children; while, at the same time he sends a 4.37 trillion mash-note/giveaway to the rich and corporations. 4.37  Trillion!  This shows that there is no real deficit closing intent here.  It is massive wealth transfer from the “have littles” to the “have everythings.”  

Ryan has taken the talking points and the agenda for his draconian wrecking-crew effort straight from the Koch-funded Heritage Foundation.  So disreputable were the model, assumptions and data fundamental to Ryan’s proposal that, when real economists cried foul, Heritage scrubbed them from its website. First, the Ryan meat cleaver budget, far, far to the right of even many Republicans.  He hammers the poor and in 2022 he hammers the old.  No one is safe.  Not those already under the old system or those younger because the system depends on evening out across younger and older retirees.  That won’t happen with the Ryan Sham and so the old system will crumble, leaving seniors who are older with nothing long about 2022. On their own they will be uninsurable or will not be able to afford the price. So Alan Grayson was right.  This really is the GOP plan: That we should all die sooner.  But there is not rationing in GOPers ideology (snark).  Meanwhile, under the Ryan Sham, many seniors in the privatized system could spend most of their income on health insurance, with no guarantee that all of their health care would be covered.  This is a recipe for massive homelessness and starvation.  

The Obama Budget

Second, Sachs says, is the Obama 2012 budget.  Although I said earlier that Obama never sent a budget, what he really didn’t do is send a coherent budget reflective of a coherent progressive agenda. He didn’t send something he would promote and stick with. Certainly, he did not fight for it.  instead, as Sachs points out the Obama budget is a “muddle” of Reagan era and Bush era tax-cutting and plugging the holes that creates at the expense of sensible programs.  However, in the end, it wasn’t much worth fighting for.

It would keep most of the Reagan-era and Bush-era tax cuts in place. Like the Ryan proposal, Obama’s tax proposals would keep total taxes at around 20 percent of GDP. The result is a major long-term squeeze on vital programs such as community development, infrastructure, and job training. Also, Obama’s plan never closes the budget deficit, which remains as high as 3.1% of GDP in 2021.

Obama’s budget is barely talked about anywhere.  Now we learn through the same disreputable media (today on NPR, with its almost daily promotion of Peter Peterson/Ryan Shams) that he is planning his own attack upon Medicare and Medicaid.  But he already “streamlined” Medicare in the HCR bill!!!  We “get to” hear how much he will sell us out this Wednesday.  For now all we have is what was previously presented by the OMB on behalf of the President.

The Progressive Budget

Third is the People’s Budget, the Progressive Centrist Budget, just to the left of center, from the progressive caucus here.  How many have ever heard about this proposal? This budget.

— Eliminates the deficits and creates a surplus by 2021

— Puts America back to work with a “Make it in America” jobs program

— Protects the social safety net

— Ends the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq Is FAIR (Fixing America’s Inequality Responsibly)

We could have had an End of the Cold War Surplus.  But we didn’t. Reagan continued to build a bloated, unsustainable, and anti-human budget/white collar welfare for defense contractors. In 1991, when it looked as if we really may finally benefit from the end of the Cold War, Bush-Daddy took care of that with the first Gulf War. And all it took was for Son-of-the-Bush to keep up the Carlyle, Halliburton, Blackwater, et al enrichment scheme called the Wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.  Those two wars, combined with the ridiculously excellence tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations, will yet render us into the dustbin of failed empires.  But we will not learn, apparently.

Fourth Is Where Most Americans Converge, According To Polls.

The fourth “budget,” though it is not literally a budget is what budget we’d have if the citizens’ priorities.  Sachs points out that “the republicans often say that they want Congress to respect the voice of the people.”   Fat chance.  If they believed that, they would end two (make that three) wars.  They’d end the giveaways from under taxed and no-taxed entities, who do not even earn their keep.  And they have the nerve to attack sneiors the way Paul Ryan did the other day! The public has let our national leaders know what they want — the rich and corporations to pay more taxes, to pay their fair share.  Instead, they all suck up the nation’s resources and tax revenues like hogs at a trough.  As Sachs also points out the public wants a public option. No such luck. The public lets our leaders know it wants out of Iraq and Afghanistan and cut other Pentagon spending lest we go the way of the Soviet Union and run our economy into the ground.  We are ignored.  On issue after issue, the public has ore sense and has a more humane agenda than do our leaders. But there is no chance that this fourth “option” will ever  be implemented.

But the Congress isn’t listening to the American people — at least enough.  Worse, as Dean Baker says our leaders hate us.  It’s time our representatives do.  And that’s not just the wistful thinking of a liberal.  It’s want the people want.  Tax the rich more.  Make the corporate rate mean something by closing loopholes by which companies moaning about a 35% tax rate actually pay nothing.  More than 60% want the tax-cutters hands off Medicare and Medicaid.  Enough said.  Do something!

SSP Daily Digest: 4/12

Senate:

AZ-Sen: I’d encourage you to read this long Newsweek piece on Gabby Giffords, which I think paints a much more realistic picture of the prospects for her recovery (and possible future election campaigns). One explicitly horserace detail: 2010 Senate challenger Rodney Glassman is considering a run, and says that “if he did run, he would do so as a placeholder for Giffords, vowing to turn over his contribution list and infrastructure to her the moment she entered the race.”

FL-Sen: Looks like Adam Hasner has taken a page directly from fellow Republican Mike Haridopolos: He failed to file a personal finance disclosure form within the required sixty days after leaving office last November. After a Democratic activist filed a complaint, he hurriedly moved to comply. The GOP field sure is shaping up to be a bunch of bumblers.

IN-Sen: Dick Lugar announced that he raised $974K in Q1, or about eight times what GOP primary challenger Richard Mourdock says he pulled in, and now has $3 million on hand. I wonder if Mourdock will be able to make up the gap. If not – and if he doesn’t get some outside help from something like the Club for Growth – is it possible his much-hyped bid to topple Lugar could turn out to be a dud?

NM-Sen: Heather Wilson says she took in $300K in the final three-and-a-half weeks of the quarter since announcing her campaign, and has a little less than that on hand. Of course, these are the low-hanging kumquats. Let’s see if she can sustain this.

NY-Sen: The Fix points out that if you search for “Rick Lazio,” the description that Google gives back to you is “Republican candidate for the US Senate from New York.” I’m gonna bet that’s an artifact of his 2000 race against Hillary Clinton, though, not a sign that he’s gearing up to challenge Kirsten Gillibrand. Try Googling “Swing State Project.” The result? “Weblog focusing on the political news from and about the key swing states in the 2004 Presidential election.” Not so much anymore.

TX-Sen: Though “everyone” expects Republicans Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst to run for Senate this year, and polls showed him crushing all comers, it’s going to be a hugely expensive multi-way battle, and I’ve never quite gotten the sense that Dewhurst truly wants to become a senator. So I’m really not too surprised to see him tell a radio host the other day: “I need to make a decision in June whether I’m going to run for the U.S. Senate in 2012 or stay right where I am and run for governor in 2014….” What makes this even more interesting is that Rick Perry could still seek another term in 2014, which suggests that Dewhurst is trying to tell Perry it’s time to move on (he’s been in office since 2000), or that he’s willing to take on Gov. Goodhair in a primary. Either way, fun!

Meanwhile, in the realm of Republicans who are actually running for Kay Bailey Hutchison’s open Senate seat, Ted Cruz says he raised over a million bucks since launching his campaign in January. A good number, I suppose, but this primary is going to cost everyone a lot more than that.

Gubernatorial:

FL-Gov: Dem Bob Buckhorn, the newly-elected Mayor of Tampa, said he won’t run for governor in 2014. However, Dem chair Rod Smith refused to rule out such a run for himself, which columnist Peter Schorsch rather wisely points out is probably not such a smart call: “After all, why should Alex Sink, Dave Aronberg, etc., go out of their to make Smith look good as FDP Chair if all he is going to do is turn around and run against them in a 2014 primary?”

WV-Gov: Republican businessman Bill Maloney is up with his first TV ad of the race, while SoS Betty Ireland (who had generally been assumed to have a lock on the GOP nomination) won’t go on the air until next week. Could an upset be in the offing?

House:

CT-05: Former state Rep. Elizabeth Esty, who had only recently formed an exploratory committee, officially announced yesterday that she’d seek the Dem nomination to replace Rep. Chris Murphy, who is of course running for Senate.

IA-02: Could we see some sack-on-sack violence in Iowa’s (probable) new 2nd CD? Diarist BJazz at Bleeding Heartland makes a pretty compelling case for why former IA First Lady Christie Vilsack might choose to challenge Rep. Dave Loebsack in the Democratic primary for the state’s new southeastern district. Loebsack is a good vote, and I think it would be a shame to have this kind of battle, but as BJazz says, this is politics.

NH-01, NH-02: Hey, sports fans – do you hate Charlie Bass? Good news! You’re not alone. PPP just tested favorability ratings across the board in New Hampshire, and residents of the 2nd CD already dislike their old/new Republican rep by an ugly 31-49 margin. Even more good news: freshman GOPer Frank Guinta in the 1st CD is underwater, too, at just 34-41. Check out the link for scores for other Granite State politicians (including both senators, who fare well). There’s also a state lege generic ballot question, which shows that Republicans might have to give back the gains they made last year: they trail Dems 49-41.

Other Races:

NJ St. Sen.: Olympic track champion Carl Lewis, once known as the world’s fastest human, announced yesterday that he’s running for New Jersey state Senate as a Democrat in the 8th district. This is some very Republican territory, but Dems are hopeful Lewis’s presence on the ticket will energize their voters. (Also note that Monday was the filing deadline for this year’s state legislative races.)

Wisconsin Recall: It looks like Democrats have scored another good recruit in their recall efforts: Oshkosh Deputy Mayor Jessica King, who lost to Randy Hopper by just 263 votes in a 2008 recount, is expected to announce tomorrow that she’ll seek a rematch in a recall election. On the Republican side, meanwhile, a potential candidate declined: former Packers defensive lineman Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila (aka “KGB”) said he won’t run against Dem Dave Hansen. (Signatures have not been filed against Hansen yet.)

Meanwhile, the state’s Government Accountability Board (which supervises elections) is demurring on setting any election dates, and plans to ask a court “to give us some flexibility in the review period, so we can consolidate elections.”

Special Elections: Johnny Longtorso:

Three seats are up on Tuesday. First, in Connecticut’s HD-148, left open by the Democrat being elected to the State Senate in the last round of Connecticut specials, we have Democratic attorney Dan Fox facing off against Republican Ralph Antonacci, whose previous claim to fame was losing the Republican primary for the seat in 2010. Also in the mix are a Green and two indies. Carlo Leone held this seat by a 2-1 margin in 2010, so I don’t anticipate it being in danger.

Next we have Minnesota’s SD-66, left open by the Democrat being appointed to the state Public Utilities Commission. Democratic college professor Mary Jo McGuire is vying against Republican Greg Copeland, formerly the city manager of Maplewood, in an overwhelmingly Democratic seat in St. Paul (we’re talking 3-1 margins for the incumbent in the past two elections).

Finally, we’ve got a Republican seat up, South Carolina’s SD-16, another seat left open by a Congressional winner (Mick Mulvaney). The Democrats have accountant Keith Brann running, while the Republicans chose Mulvaney’s predecessor in the district, Greg Gregory, who served in the Senate for 16 years. There’s also a Libertarian running. I looked up Mulvaney’s performance in 2008, when he was first elected, and he only won by 7 points, which was kind of interesting, but of course, that was a completely different set of circumstances.

{Ed. Note: Apparently, Brann moved to SC from New Jersey three years ago, and initially sought this seat as a Republican, but found that the Palmetto GOP was too extreme for him.}

And that’s pretty much it until next month. There’s another special in Louisiana at the end of the month with two Republicans running.

Remainders:

Census: Interesting: The Census Bureau mis-allocated over 25,000 people living on Navy bases or aboard ships in six different states and has had to issue corrections as a result. What other errors are lurking out there?

WATN?: In case you had a burning desire to know what became of Bart Stupak, he’s joined the law firm Venable. Obviously Venable is a big firm, but Dave Weigel entertainingly points out that one of their clients is Planned Parenthood of Maryland.

In other Where Is That Asshole Now? news, disgraced ex-NY state Sen. Hiram Monserrate is now working at a pizza joint. (Of course, he really should be in the joint instead.)

A Note on Spammers

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Sneaky Legislation: The SEC’s new “pay-to-play” rules and funding of Federal elections

Initial Disclaimer: I have never written about politics before in my life, so I’m not entirely sure how to go about it. But I was specifically requested to say something about this particular piece of sausage and, well, I can never resist an appeal to my vanity, so I went and did it.

Last summer, the Securities and Exchange Commission passed Rule 206(4)-5, and amended a few other Rules under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. If you read the adopting release, and you believe everything you read, this bit of legislation is intended to preserve “the public trust” from abuse at the hands of elected officials who are taking campaign contributions and kicking it back to Wall Street by directing business to financial firms.

Why this stuff matters

Many investment firms, particularly in what’s known as the “alternative asset” space, an abstract term for, generally, hedge funds and private equity funds, earn two sets of fees, only one of which is tied to performance returns. The other is based on the amount of assets the fund has to invest, contributed by investors and added to by performance growth.  Managers and employees earn their compensation from the fees paid – asset fees tend to go to expenses which includes base salaries and bonus compensation for non-partner employees – managers who have ownership in their firms earn the performance based fees directly. For most funds, the higher fee is tied to performance – which is why Madoff inflated his returns, rather than his asset size – but asset growth can still make a substantial impact on a firm’s bottom line, and excess in asset-based revenues over expenses can mean profit for managers.

Cases of kickbacks, or “pay to play”, have come up with what seems increasing frequency in news reports – a good recent (and local) example is Alan Hevesi, the NYS comptroller who recently pled guilty to directing state pension funds to certain investment firms in return for gifts.  

So there’s no denying that this is an actual issue, and I suppose the Commission – at the explicit behest of Congress, mind you, who gets the PR credit here – gets a hats-off for addressing an issue that exists, rather than one invented to inflame public fears which they can then take credit for calming.

Why this is the wrong solution

However, I think you’d be hard-pressed to say they got it right on this one.

What the law actually says is this:

1– An investment advisor (regardless of whether it’s an entity registered with the SEC, a state, or nothing at all) may not receive compensation from a “government entity” where the advisor or its “covered associates” have made a contribution to a state or local government “official” of that public entity within the past two years (above a de minimis amount – $150 for an official someone can’t vote for, and $350 for an official one can vote for).  

A key takeaway here is that the rule applies only to state and local officials – which includes state and local officeholders (of any variety, potentially) who are running for Federal office or Federal officeholders running for state positions.  It doesn’t touch current Federal folk who are running for re-election or new Federal office.

The devil is in the details here, and the definitions of those terms in quotes matter.  A “public entity” covers what you would think of, in terms of recent news as well as common sense: public pension funds, 529 plans (education savings), and other state and locally funded pools of cash.  This would seem easy enough to comply with, if we stopped there, and perhaps a facially fair rule.  However, the definition doesn’t stop there: it also includes any pool of money, whether publicly affiliated or not, for which a state or local government official has the ability to make investment decisions or to appoint someone to make investment decisions. So, if the principal of your local public school serves on the Board of Directors for a charitable entity that makes investments – that situation is covered, too.

For investment firms, keeping tabs on which of your clients is a public entity has now gotten a lot harder.  Firms are required to “Know Your Customer” to comply with applicable anti-money-laundering laws – but the kinds of documentation requested usually do not require a full history of the Board of Directors for the past two years, say.  Or the chairman of an investment committee who left six months ago and held no other position in the entity that would make him noteworthy.  This contributes to putting advisors in a bind with respect to compliance.

“Congress shall make no law. . .”

To the best of my knowledge, Congresscritters and SEC employees are still groups with disparate elements; there’s no direct benefit to the Commission’s employees here and they don’t have a direct motive for taking such a step.  However, this rule was passed amid a flurry of Congressional interest in pay-to-play, and the Rule intersects with provisions of Dodd-Frank.  At the very least, Congress was fully aware of the potential windfalls here (discussed below in conspiracy-laden detail) by the time the notice and comment period rolled around.

In the adopting release, the SEC pats itself on the back for dancing carefully around the First Amendment – we’re not restricting speech, they say, we are restricting compensation – and they’re not wrong about that with the first prong of the law.  However, the effect of prohibiting the receipt of compensation is to restrict speech – legal guidance around compliance with these rules essentially says, look, it’s impossible with these definitions to keep track of which prospective clients can be tainted by contributions, unless you want to provide each of your investors a list of everyone your staff has made donations to and have them certify that none of those people have been in a position to direct your investment activities and you won’t hire any of them, either. That would not be a questionnaire designed to attract clients.  So firms are essentially saying, you have to notify us about all of your state and local donations in advance, and we reserve the right to tell you you can’t make them. “[W]e acknowledge”, the Commission apologizes, “that the two-year time out provision may affect the propensity of investment advisers to make political contributions” – but they still get to make this rule, because it balances out OK in the end (see below).

I’m no constitutional law scholar, and this Rule may technically be constitutionally acceptable – they are, in fact, not making a law restricting speech; they are only making a law whose impact is to restrict speech, and there are theoretical ways to comply with that law which do not restrict speech.  I would think, particularly in the wake of Citizens United, we are all in agreeance on political contributions and speech. The adopting release acknowledges that protected rights are involved here, and provides the balancing act rationale: “Limitations on contributions are permissible if justified by a sufficiently important government interest that is closely drawn to avoid unnecessary abridgment of protected

rights”

Those devious feds

This compliance issue, to me, is an example of impressive cleverness and deviousness on the part of your federal officials.  I go on to outline the rest of the rule below, if you’re interested (and hey, who isn’t interested in the regulation of investment firms! Let me hear you, crickets!) – but this first prong is the part I am most impressed with.

As outlined above, investment firms which solicit any non-individual investors have no practical compliance choice that will allow them to continue to conduct their business except to require pre-approval and the ability to deny state and local political contributions. (To be fair, some firms simply restrict employee state and local donations to a particular state and then decide not to seek clients from that state, and that should be low-risk. But this is not something most firms are willing to do – the competition for investors is fierce, and most firms will take good money wherever they can get it.)

The beauty of these definitions is that, like the definition of “government entity”, the definition of state or local official is pretty broad. It covers anyone serving in or running for a state or local office who would have the ability to direct investment activities or could hire or appoint someone with the ability to direct investment activities.

As written, and explicitly acknowledged in the release, this includes state or local officials (or someone serving in state or local government on the Board of Directors, as above) who is running for federal office.  So Congress has effectively reduced funding for the campaigns of state and local officials from some of the wealthiest individuals – investment folks, who have the money to spend on politics and who might well be interested in doing so.  

Candy from a baby: Fattening the Feds

This has two potential boons for Congress (outside of chest-beating regarding pay-to-play itself): one is that great candidates who start out in state or local offices and build political careers from there will have higher financial hurdles to overcome. I am not a student of electoral history, but I’m willing to bet at least some Congressfolk come up through the ranks this way. The second is that Congress whoops, the Commission has effectively deprived challengers who come from nonfederal offices of an important source of funding.  Wall Street can fund Gillibrand, that is, but not Ford(Apologies for the correction – here’s an actual example or two.).

I’m no conspiracy theorist.  And despite being a Democrat, I often think it’s better to leave certain things unregulated, because the law is poorly written and makes a lot of things worse – even when you need to regulate something, it’s an arms race between the drafters and the lawyers hired to get around them.  So I don’t think that the SEC’s primary reason for passing this law was to make it harder for “Washington outsiders” to make it into office.  

Regardless of whether the bill was intended to benefit Federal incumbents, I think you’d be hard pressed to say it won’t have that effect. You all know a lot more than I do about contributions and political donations – maybe I underestimate how much of that funding is coming from investment professionals. But I’d be surprised if they weren’t a significant source of revenue, whether for the side of right or wrong.  And I’ll be very curious to see if the wise analysts of the SSP notice any differences in the funding of state-level challengers to federal office.  

If you’re interested, the other main points of the rule are:

2– The advisor and its covered associates cannot solicit or coordinate contributions either to an official of a public entity which is a prospective client or to a state or local political party (italics mine) in a location where the advisor is looking for prospective clients.  So, thankfully(sarcasm), you can still give to the D-Trip , but you’d better stay away from state and local parties anywhere you might want to conduct business.

This one is a strict prohibition. I think that we pass Constitutional muster here (for those who think we do) by the narrowness of the scope: The Commission finds this only a “marginal limitation” in the adopting release. But it still reads, initially, as a somewhat ballsy move, particularly if you give any weight to my feelings above that Congress has a lot to be thankful for in respect of this piece of drafting.

Finally, the third major prong is:

3– The advisor and its covered associates may not pay third parties to solicit public entities as clients unless those third parties are also subject to pay to play rules.

In the article I linked to above, this requirement caused placement agents to fall all over themselves trying to get registered before they went out of business – and this is the most visible intersection with Dodd-Frank.