SSP Daily Digest: 9/25

MA-Sen: A superior court judge today ruled that Deval Patrick did not overstep his authority by unilaterally declaring that there was an emergency that required immediate implementation of the new temporary Senate appointment law (instead of the usual waiting period). Bring on the usual Republican kvetching about judicial activism, but the judge did note that the GOP did “not cite any case law in support of its argument.” (Another interesting tidbit: Mitt Romney used his “emergency” power 14 times while in office, including to raise the boating speed limit in Charlton.) At any rate, this frees up Paul Kirk to be sworn in by Joe Biden this afternoon as the Bay State’s junior senator until January.

CA-Sen: Carly Fiorina has unleashed her killer app: her new website, titled “Carlyfornia Dreamin’.” Unfortunately, the only killing that seems to be going on here is of her own credibility, as both Democrats and conservative Republicans alike are aghast at the site’s… well… vapidity. It’s more fuel for the fire for conservatives left wondering what — if, as rumored, Fiorina isn’t going to self-fund, her one potential advantage — she brings to the table.

KY-Sen: Following his latest “moneybomb” (Sep. 23, timed to coincide with Trey Grayson’s DC fundraiser with much of the GOP Senate establishment), Rand Paul says he’s raised more than $900K this quarter and expects to report $1 million at month’s end.

AZ-Gov: Fresh from posting godawful numbers in this week’s PPP poll, Jan Brewer is already facing her first Republican primary opponent: Paradise Valley mayor Vernon Parker. Parker, who was the Bush administration’s Asst. Sec. of Agriculture for Civil Rights, is African-American; Phoenix suburb Paradise Valley is small (pop. 13,000) but the state’s wealthiest place (2000 MHI $150K).

CA-Gov: With stories dogging Fiorina and Linda McMahon for their spotty voting records, now it’s Meg Whitman’s turn in the spotlight. A Sacramento Bee investigation finds that her failing to vote “on a few occasions,” as she’s previously said, actually means “almost always,” with little record of voting or even registration in the six states and dozen counties where she’s lived.

MI-Gov: Moderate businessman Rick Snyder, who’s languishing in the low single digits in the polls in the GOP gubernatorial field in Michigan, got a high-profile endorsement yesterday: from Bill Ford, chairman of Ford Motors.

NV-Gov: CREW has filed an ethics complaint against ex-AG, ex-federal judge Brian Sandoval, who recently quit his judgeship to move to the Republican gubernatorial primary (against DOA incumbent Jim Gibbons). There are strict prohibitions against political activity by the federal judiciary, but he may have had conservations with political consultants who then included him in polling, which could have crossed the line.

PA-Gov: In the Pennsylvania Republican primary in the open seat governor’s race, conservative AG Tom Corbett got a big endorsement from moderate ex-Gov. Tom Ridge. Meanwhile, the moderate option in the primary, Rep. Jim Gerlach, unveiled a rather less impressive endorsement: conservative ex-Rep. John Peterson.

KS-03: Steve Rose, the Republican publisher of the Johnson County Sun, announced last week that he’d run for the House against Rep. Dennis Moore. Today, he’s already out of the race, citing health reasons.

DGA: Another sign of Barack Obama’s increasing engagement with the gubernatorial sphere (after the row over his involvement in the New York race): he’s headlining a DGA fundraiser in DC on Oct. 1 expected to raise at least $500K.

House: An interesting lawsuit was filed in federal court this week, demanding that the size of the House be increased. The crux is the disparity between, say, WY-AL with less than 500K residents and MT-AL with more than 900K residents; the suit invokes the “one person one vote” requirement with its roots in Baker v. Carr, but that’s never been applied across state lines, only to equalizing districts within a state. It’ll be interesting to see how far this gets. (By the way, Tom Schaller looks at how a bigger House would create a small partisan advantage for the Dems in the Electoral College. No discussion on whether it would lead to a bigger advantage in the House, although that would obviously turn on how the new smaller districts get gerrymandered into existence.)

WATN?: The Abramoff investigation may finally take down ex-Rep. John Doolittle, who was just named as a co-conspirator by federal prosecutors in the corruption case of former aide Kevin Ring.

Pollsters: The American Association for Public Opinion Research took the unusal step yesterday of reprimanding Strategic Vision, LLC (the one whose polls you often see here… not to be confused with well-thought-of market research firm Strategic Vision, Inc.) for failing to respond to requests for basic information about the make-up of their polls. Pollster.com’s Mark Blumenthal had previously flagged SV for suspicious behavior.

An Iowan’s view of Sabato’s new House ratings

Last year all five Iowa incumbents in the House of Representatives were re-elected by double-digit margins. The main challengers failed to win even 40 percent of the vote against Democrats Bruce Braley (IA-01) and Dave Loebsack (IA-02), as well as Republicans Tom Latham (IA-04) and Steve King (IA-05).

I’ve long assumed that none of Iowa’s Congressional districts would be competitive in 2010. Although Republicans have put Leonard Boswell (IA-03) on their long list of House targets, several other analysts share my view that Boswell is safe for next year. To my knowledge, the only declared candidates against Boswell are the little-known Dave Funk and Pat Bertroche. Boswell’s 1996 opponent Mike Mahaffey is thinking it over too.

Isaac Wood and Larry Sabato released new House race rankings, and they included IA-03 among 47 Democratic-held districts that are “likely” to remain Democratic:

The “likely” category is reserved for those competitive races where one party has a distinct advantage over the other. Most of these races feature either strong challengers or weak incumbents, but not a combination of the two that would warrant a more competitive designation. Consider these races as a watch list which could turn into heated battle with a single misstep by an incumbent or positive fundraising report.

I could see Iowa’s third district becoming competitive, but only if the economy is in terrible shape next fall and Republicans fund a well-known candidate with a base in Polk County (the population center of the district).

I question Wood and Sabato’s decision to put Loebsack’s district in the “likely” category as well. So far right-winger Steve Rathje is definitely running against Loebsack (he narrowly lost the 2008 GOP primary for U.S. Senate). Mariannette Miller-Meeks is also considering a rematch. She’s an impressive woman, but I frankly can’t imagine this district becoming competitive in 2010. IA-02 has much stronger Democratic voting performance than IA-03, which tracks closely with the nationwide vote in presidential elections.

Iowa City-based blogger John Deeth, who’s lived in IA-02 for a long time, also thinks Loebsack is rock solid for 2010.

Share any thoughts or predictions in this thread.

P.S.: Any idea when SSP’s 2010 House race ratings will be released?

UPDATE: From Deeth’s blog:

MMM’s case (other than her admittedly interesting biography) was attacking Loebsack as a solid vote for Speaker Pelosi and the Democratic leadership — as if that was a BAD thing in a Democratic district. She also had trouble keeping her own party united behind her, with anti-choice forces within the GOP sent out late attacks and fed the rumor mill.

Only thing I can think of is that Sabato just looked at the Loebsack percentage of just a hair under 60. The Green and independent candidates account for that; in Johnson County at least MMM’s percentage almost exactly matched McCain’s, and Loebsack trailed Obama by almost exactly the third party vote.

Looks to me like Sabato just threw every 2006 and 2008 upset winner (Space, Shea-Porter, Walz, etc.) on the “Likely” list. Like I was saying even BEFORE the 2006 election, the real fluke is that Jim Leach held the seat as long as he did.

300 House Districts now have Republican candidates (2 of 2)

Yesterday I took a look at our efforts to recruit House candidates for 2010. This time it is the Republicans.

37! more Districts now have Republican candidates and they are getting wingnuttier all the time.

NV-03 (Titus) – D+2,

OH-16 (Boccieri) – R+4,

Below the fold for all the details (and bring some eyewash) and hey go check out the shiny new 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

Also keep an eye out for the great series on Democratic House Candidates by Adam T

(Cross posted at Daily Kos, MyDD and Open Left)

As we assumed for us so should we assume for them; so all 178 Republican held districts can be considered filled (although I think we may sneak a win in the NY-23rd Special).

122 Democratic held Districts have confirmed GOP candidates:

AL-02 (Bright) – R+16,

AL-05 (Griffith) – R+12,

AZ-01 (Kirkpatrick) – R+6,

AZ-05 (Mitchell) – R+5,

AZ-07 (Grijalva) – D+6,

AZ-08 (Giffords) – R+4,

AR-01 (Berry) – R+8,

AR-02 (Snyder) – R+5,

CA-01 (Thompson) – D+13,

CA-08 (Pelosi) – D+35,

CA-10 (VACANT) – D+11,

CA-11 (McNerney) – R+1,

CA-20 (Costa) – D+5,

CA-30 (Waxman) – D+18,

CA-47 (Sanchez) – D+4,

CA-53 (Davis) – D+14,

CO-03 (Salazar) – R+5,

CO-04 (Markey) – R+6,

CO-07 (Perlmutter) – D+4,

CT-02 (Courtney) – D+6,

CT-03 (DeLauro) – D+9,

CT-04 (Himes) – D+5,

CT-05 (Murphy) – D+2,

FL-02 (Boyd) – R+6,

FL-03 (Brown) – D+18,

FL-08 (Grayson) – R+2,

FL-11 (Castor) – D+11,

FL-17 (Meek OPEN) – D+34,

FL-19 (Wexler) – D+15,

FL-20 (Wasserman Schulz) – D+13,

FL-22 (Klein) – D+1,

FL-23 (Hastings) – D+28,

FL-24 (Kosmas) – R+4,

GA-02 (Bishop) – D+1,

GA-12 (Barrow) – D+1,

GA-13 (Scott) – D+15,

HI-01 (Abercrombie OPEN) – D+11,

ID-01 (Minnick) – R+18,

IL-02 (Jackson Jr) – D+36,

IL-08 (Bean) – R+1,

IL-11 (Halvorson) – R+1,

IL-14 (Foster) – R+1,

IL-17 (Hare) – D+3,

IN-08 (Ellsworth) – R+8,

IN-09 (Hill) – R+6,

IA-02 (Loebsack) – D+1,

IA-03 (Boswell) – D+1,

KY-06 (Chandler) – R+9,

LA-03 (Melancon) – R+12,

ME-02 (Michaud) – D+3,

MD-01 (Kratovil) – R+13,

MD-03 (Sarbanes) – D+6,

MD-08 (Van Hollen Jr) – D+21,

MA-02 (Neal) – D+9,

MA-04 (Frank) – D+14,

MA-05 (Tsongas) – D+8,

MA-06 (Tierney) – D+7,

MI-07 (Schauer) – R+2,

MI-09 (Peters) – D+2,

MI-12 (Levin) – D+12,

MN-04 (McCollum) – D+13,

MS-01 (Childers) – R+14,

MS-04 (Taylor) – R+20,

MO-04 (Skelton) – R+14,

NV-03 (Titus) – D+2,

NH-01 (Shea Porter) – D+0,

NH-02 (Hodes OPEN) – D+3,

NJ-12 (Holt) – D+5,

NM-01 (Heinrich) – D+5,

NM-02 (Teague) – R+6,

NM-03 (Lujan) – D+7,

NY-01 (Bishop) – D+0,

NY-04 (McCarthy) – D+6,

NY-13 (McMahon) – R+4,

NY-19 (Hall) – R+3,

NY-22 (Hinchey) – D+6,

NY-25 (Maffei) – D+3,

NY-29 (Massa) – R+5,

NC-04 (Price) – D+8,

NC-07 (McIntyre) – R+5,

NC-08 (Kissell) – R+2,

NC-13 (Miller) – D+5,

OH-01 (Driehaus) – D+1,

OH-06 (Wilson) – R+2,

OH-15 (Kilroy) – D+1,

OH-16 (Boccieri) – R+4,

OH-18 (Space) – R+7,

OK-02 (Boren) – R+14,

OR-01 (Wu) – D+8,

OR-04 (DeFazio) – D+2,

PA-03 (Dahlkemper) – R+3,

PA-07 (Sestak) – D+3,

PA-10 (Carney) – R+8,

PA-12 (Murtha) – R+1,

PA-13 (Schwartz) – D+7,

RI-01 (Kennedy) – D+13,

RI-02 (Langevin) – D+9,

SD-AL (Herseth Sandlin) – R+9,

TN-04 (Davis) – R+13,

TN-06 (Gordon) – R+13,

TN-08 (Tanner) – R+6,

TX-16 (Reyes) – D+10,

TX-17 (Edwards) – R+20,

TX-18 (Jackson Lee) – D+24,

TX-23 (Rodriguez) – R+4,

TX-27 (Ortiz) – R+2,

TX-29 (Green) – D+8,

UT-02 (Matheson) – R+15,

VA-02 (Nye) – R+5,

VA-05 (Perriello) – R+5,

VA-09 (Boucher) – R+11,

VA-11 (Connolly) – D+2,

WA-03 (Baird) – D+0,

WA-06 (Dicks) – D+5,

WA-09 (Smith) – D+5,

WV-01 (Mollohan) – R+9,

WV-03 (Rahall) – R+6,

WI-02 (Baldwin) – D+15,

WI-03 (Kind) – D+4,

WI-04 (Moore) – D+22,

WI-07 (Obey) – D+3,

WI-08 (Kagen) – R+2,

12 Democratic held Districts have GOP candidates that are considering a run:

CA-33 (Watson) – D+35,

KY-03 (Yarmuth) – D+2,

MO-03 (Carnahan) – D+7,

NJ-03 (Adler) – R+1,

NY-14 (Maloney) – D+26,

NY-20 (Murphy) – R+2,

NY-24 (Arcuri) – R+2,

NC-11 (Shuler) – R+6,

PA-11 (Kanjorski) – D+4,

PA-17 (Holden) – R+6,

WA-07 (McDermott) – D+31,

4 Democratic held Districts have rumoured GOP Party candidates:

KS-03 (Moore) – R+3,

MN-01 (Walz) – R+1,

NJ-08 (Pascrell) – D+10,

PA-04 (Altmire) – R+6,

118 Democratic held Districts don’t have any GOP candidates:

AL-07 (Davis OPEN) – D+18,

AZ-04 (Pastor) – D+13,

AR-04 (Ross) – R+7,

CA-05 (Matsui) – D+15,

CA-06 (Woolsey) – D+23,

CA-07 (Miller) – D+19,

CA-09 (Lee) – D+37,

CA-12 (Speier) – D+23,

CA-13 (Stark) – D+22,

CA-14 (Eshoo) – D+21,

CA-15 (Honda) – D+15,

CA-16 (Lofgren) – D+16,

CA-17 (Farr) – D+19,

CA-18 (Cardoza) – D+4,

CA-23 (Capps) – D+12,

CA-27 (Sherman) – D+13,

CA-28 (Berman) – D+23,

CA-29 (Schiff) – D+14,

CA-31 (Becerra) – D+29,

CA-32 (Chu) – D+15,

CA-34 (Roybal-Allard) – D+22,

CA-35 (Waters) – D+31,

CA-36 (Harman) – D+12,

CA-37 (Richardson) – D+26,

CA-38 (Napolitano) – D+18,

CA-39 (Sanchez) – D+12,

CA-43 (Baca) – D+13,

CA-51 (Filner) – D+8,

CO-01 (DeGette) – D+21,

CO-02 (Polis) – D+11,

CT-01 (Larson) – D+13,

GA-04 (Johnson) – D+24,

GA-05 (Lewis) – D+26,

GA-08 (Marshall) – R+10,

HI-02 (Hirono) – D+14,

IL-01 (Rush) – D+34,

IL-03 (Lipinski) – D+11,

IL-04 (Gutierrez) – D+32,

IL-05 (Quigley) – D+19,

IL-07 (Davis) – D+35,

IL-09 (Schakowsky) – D+20,

IL-12 (Costello) – D+3,

IN-01 (Visclosky) – D+8,

IN-02 (Donnelly) – R+2,

IN-07 (Carson) – D+14,

IA-01 (Braley) – D+5,

ME-01 (Pingree) – D+8,

MD-02 (Ruppersberger) – D+7,

MD-04 (Edwards) – D+31,

MD-05 (Hoyer) – D+11,

MD-07 (Cummings) – D+25,

MA-01 (Olger) – D+14,

MA-03 (McGovern) – D+9,

MA-07 (Markey) – D+15,

MA-08 (Capuano) – D+32,

MA-09 (Lynch) – D+11,

MA-10 (Delahunt) – D+5,

MI-01 (Stupak) – R+3,

MI-05 (Kildee) – D+11,

MI-13 (Kilpatrick) – D+31,

MI-14 (Conyers) – D+34,

MI-15 (Dingell) – D+13,

MN-05 (Ellison) – D+23,

MN-07 (Peterson) – R+5,

MN-08 (Oberstar) – D+3,

MS-02 (Thompson) – D+12,

MO-01 (Clay) – D+27,

MO-05 (Cleaver) – D+10,

NV-01 (Berkley) – D+10,

NJ-01 (Andrews) – D+12,

NJ-06 (Pallone) – D+8,

NJ-09 (Rothman) – D+9,

NJ-10 (Payne) – D+33,

NJ-13 (Sires) – D+21,

NY-02 (Israel) – D+4,

NY-05 (Ackerman) – D+12,

NY-06 (Meeks) – D+36,

NY-07 (Crowley) – D+26,

NY-08 (Nadler) – D+22,

NY-09 (Weiner) – D+5,

NY-10 (Towns) – D+38,

NY-11 (Clarke) – D+38,

NY-12 (Velazquez) – D+33,

NY-15 (Rangel) – D+41,

NY-16 (Serrano) – D+41,

NY-17 (Engel) – D+18,

NY-18 (Lowey) – D+9,

NY-21 (Tonko) – D+6,

NY-27 (Higgins) – D+4,

NY-28 (Slaughter) – D+15,

NC-01 (Butterfield) – D+9,

NC-02 (Etheridge) – R+2,

NC-12 (Watt) – D+16,

ND-AL (Pomeroy) – R+10,

OH-09 (Kaptor) – D+10,

OH-10 (Kucinich) – D+8,

OH-11 (Fudge) – D+32,

OH-13 (Sutton) – D+5,

OH-17 (Ryan) – D+12,

OR-03 (Blumenauer) – D+19,

OR-05 (Schrader) – D+1,

PA-01 (Brady) – D+35,

PA-02 (Fattah) – D+38,

PA-08 (Murphy) – D+2,

PA-14 (Doyle) – D+19,

SC-05 (Spratt) – R+7,

SC-06 (Clyburn) – D+12,

TN-05 (Cooper) – D+3,

TN-09 (Cohen) – D+23,

TX-09 (Green) – D+22,

TX-15 (Hinojosa) – D+3,

TX-20 (Gonzalez) – D+8,

TX-25 (Doggett) – D+6,

TX-28 (Cuellar) – R+0,

TX-30 (Johnson) – D+27,

VT-AL (Welch) – D+13,

VA-03 (Scott) – D+20,

VA-08 (Moran) – D+16,

WA-01 (Inslee) – D+9,

WA-02 (Larsen) – D+3,

So the Republicans have confirmed candidates in 300 districts. Take a look at some of their challengers websites though and your eyeballs will bleed. They also have 12 districts with candidates that are considering a run and 4 districts with rumoured candidates.

Whilst they are still behind us numerically they have more in ours than we have in theirs, and the gap is ateadily narrowing.

They also have some huge gaps in California and New York.

They already have a full House slate in Alaska, Delaware, Florida, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, Louisiana, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming (we have 15 such states).

They also have but one slot to fill in Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Connecticut, Hawaii, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine,  Mississippi, North Dakota, and Vermont (we have 7 such states).

Expect candidates to bob up with increasing frequency from here on in.

Any news, gossip or thoughts in the comments please.

More updates soon.

313 House Districts now have Democratic candidates.

In less than 15 months the midterms will be upon us.

In 2006 we fielded candidates in 425 districts and in 2008 candidates in 421.

How will we go in 2010?

Since my last update intrepid Democrats have been confirmed in another 17 Districts.

CA-19 (Radanovich) – R+9,

CA-25 (McKeon) – R+6,

CA-41 (Lewis) – R+10,

CA-42 (Miller) – R+10,

FL-01 (Miller) – R+21,

FL-13 (Buchanan) – R+6,

FL-16 (Rooney) – R+5,

IL-15 (Johnson) – R+6,

KS-04 (Tiahrt) – R+14,

LA-02 (Cao) – D+25,

OH-12 (Tiberi) – D+1,

PA-15 (Dent) – D+2,

SC-01 (Brown) – R+10,

SC-03 (Barrett OPEN) – R+17,

TX-21 (Smith) – R+14,

TX-32 (Sessions) – R+8,

VA-01 (Wittman) – R+7,

Below the fold for all the details and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

(Cross posted at Daily Kos, MyDD and Open Left)

Well for starters I think we can safely assume that we will field candidates in all 257 of the Districts that we currently hold.

So onto the Republican held districts:

56 GOP held Districts have confirmed Democratic Party candidates:

AL-03 (Rogers) – R+9,

AR-03 (Boozman) – R+16,

CA-03 (Lundgren) – R+6,

CA-19 (Radanovich) – R+9,

CA-24 (Gallegly) – R+4,

CA-25 (McKeon) – R+6,

CA-26 (Dreier) – R+3,

CA-41 (Lewis) – R+10,

CA-42 (Miller) – R+10,

CA-44 (Calvert) – R+6,

CA-45 (Bono Mack) – R+3,

CA-48 (Campbell) – R+6,

CA-50 (Bilbray) – R+3,

C0-06 (Coffman) – R+8,

DE-AL (Castle) – D+7,

FL-01 (Miller) – R+21,

FL-05 (Brown-Waite) – R+9,

FL-06 (Stearns) – R+10,

FL-07 (Mica) – R+7,

FL-10 (Young) – R+1,

FL-12 (Putnam OPEN) – R+6,

FL-13 (Buchanan) – R+6,

FL-14 (Mack) – R+11,

FL-16 (Rooney) – R+5,

IL-10 (Kirk) – D+6,

IL-13 (Biggert) – R+1,

IL-15 (Johnson) – R+6,

IL-18 (Schock) – R+6,

KS-04 (Tiahrt) – R+14,

KY-04 (Davis) – R+14,

KY-05 (Rogers) – R+15,

LA-02 (Cao) – D+25,

MD-06 (Bartlett) – R+13,

MN-06 (Bachmann) – R+7,

MI-11 (McCotter) – R+0,

MT-AL (Rehberg) – R+7,

NE-03 (Smith) – R+24,

NV-02 (Heller) – R+5,

NY-23 (McHugh) – R+1,

OH-02 (Schmidt) – R+13,

OH-12 (Tiberi) – D+1,

PA-06 (Gerlach) – D+4,

PA-15 (Dent) – D+2,

PA-16 (Pitts) – R+8,

SC-01 (Brown) – R+10,

SC-02 (Wilson) – R+9,

SC-03 (Barrett OPEN) – R+17,

TN-03 (Wamp OPEN) – R+13,

TN-07 (Blackburn) – R+18,

TX-21 (Smith) – R+14,

TX-26 (Burgess) – R+13,

TX-32 (Sessions) – R+8,

VA-01 (Wittman) – R+7,

VA-07 (Cantor) – R+9,

WA-08 (Reichert) – D+3,

WI-01 (Ryan) – R+2,

9 GOP held Districts have Democratic Party candidates that are considering a run:

AK-AL (Young) – R+13,

CA-04 (McClintock) – R+10,

MN-03 (Paulsen) – R+0,

NE-02 (Terry) – R+6,

NY-03 (King) – R+4,

OH-14 (LaTourette) – R+3,

TX-10 (McCaul) – R+10,

WI-06 (Petri) – R+4,

WV-02 (Capito) – R+8,

1 GOP held Districts have rumoured Democratic Party candidates:

FL-18 (Ros-Lehtinen) – R+3,

112 GOP held Districts don’t have any Democratic Party candidates:

AL-01 (Bonner) – R+14,

AL-04 (Aderholt) – R+26,

AL-06 (Bachus) – R+29,

AZ-02 (Franks) – R+13,

AZ-03 (Shadegg) – R+9,

AZ-06 (Flake) – R+15,

CA-02 (Herger) – R+11,

CA-21 (Nunes) – R+13,

CA-22 (McCarthy) – R+16,

CA-40 (Royce) – R+8,

CA-46 (Rohrabacher) – R+6,

CA-49 (Issa) – R+10,

CA-52 (Hunter) – R+9,

C0-05 (Lamborn) – R+14,

FL-04 (Crenshaw) – R+17,

FL-09 (Bilirakis) – R+6,

FL-15 (Posey) – R+6,

FL-21 (Diaz-Balart) – R+5,

FL-25 (Diaz-Balart) – R+5,

GA-01 (Kingston) – R+16,

GA-03 (Westmoreland) – R+19,

GA-06 (Price) – R+19,

GA-07 (Linder) – R+16,

GA-09 (Deal OPEN) – R+28,

GA-10 (Broun) – R+15,

GA-11 (Gingrey) – R+20,

ID-02 (Simpson) – R+17,

IL-06 (Roskam) – R+0,

IL-16 (Manzullo) – R+2,

IL-19 (Shimkus) – R+9,

IN-03 (Souder) – R+14,

IN-04 (Buyer) – R+14,

IN-05 (Burton) – R+17,

IN-06 (Pence) – R+10,

IA-04 (Latham) – R+0,

IA-05 (King) – R+9,

KS-01 (Moran OPEN) – R+23,

KS-02 (Jenkins) – R+9,

KY-01 (Whitfield) – R+15,

KY-02 (Guthrie) – R+15,

LA-01 (Scalise) – R+24,

LA-04 (Fleming) – R+11,

LA-05 (Alexander) – R+14,

LA-06 (Cassidy) – R+10,

LA-07 (Boustany) – R+14,

MI-02 (Hoekstra OPEN) – R+7,

MI-03 (Ehlers) – R+6,

MI-04 (Camp) – R+3,

MI-06 (Upton) – R+0,

MI-08 (Rogers) – R+2,

MI-10 (Miller) – R+5,

MN-02 (Kline) – R+4,

MS-03 (Harper) – R+15,

MO-02 (Akin) – R+9,

MO-06 (Graves) – R+7,

MO-07 (Blunt OPEN) – R+15,

MO-08 (Emerson) – R+17,

MO-09 (Luetkemeyer) – R+9,

NE-01 (Fortenberry) – R+11,

NJ-02 (LoBiondo) – D+1,

NJ-04 (Smith) – R+6,

NJ-05 (Garrett) – R+7,

NJ-07 (Lance) – R+3,

NJ-11 (Frelinghuysen) – R+7,

NY-26 (Lee) – R+6,

NC-03 (Jones) – R+16,

NC-05 (Foxx) – R+15,

NC-06 (Coble) – R+18,

NC-09 (Myrick) – R+11,

NC-10 (McHenry) – R+17,

OH-03 (Turner) – R+5,

OH-04 (Jordan) – R+15,

OH-05 (Latta) – R+9,

OH-07 (Austria) – R+7,

OH-08 (Boehner) – R+11,

OK-01 (Sullivan) – R+16,

OK-03 (Lucas) – R+24,

OK-04 (Cole) – R+18,

OK-05 (Fallin OPEN) – R+13,

OR-02 (Walden) – R+10,

PA-05 (Thompson) – R+9,

PA-09 (Shuster) – R+17,

PA-18 (Murphy) – R+6,

PA-19 (Platts) – R+12,

SC-04 (Inglis) – R+15,

TN-01 (Roe) – R+21,

TN-02 (Duncan) – R+16,

TX-01 (Gohmert) – R+21,

TX-02 (Poe) – R+13,

TX-03 (Johnson) – R+14,

TX-04 (Hall) – R+21,

TX-05 (Hensarling) – R+17,

TX-06 (Barton) – R+15,

TX-07 (Culberson) – R+13,

TX-08 (Brady) – R+25,

TX-11 (Conaway) – R+28,

TX-12 (Granger) – R+16,

TX-13 (Thornberry) – R+29,

TX-14 (Paul) – R+18,

TX-19 (Neugebaeur) – R+26,

TX-22 (Olsen) – R+13,

TX-24 (Marchant) – R+11,

TX-31 (Carter) – R+14,

UT-01 (Bishop) – R+21,

UT-03 (Chaffetz) – R+26,

VA-04 (Forbes) – R+4,

VA-06 (Goodlatte) – R+12,

VA-10 (Wolf) – R+2,

WA-04 (Hastings) – R+13,

WA-05 (McMorris Rodgers) – R+7,

WI-05 (Sensenbrenner) – R+12,

WY-AL (Lummis) – R+20,

So we now have candidate in 313 House Districts, 9 Districts with candidates considering their options and 1 with rumoured candidates.

In this stage in 2007 we had candidates in about 323 Districts but we do now hold 20 more districts. hhhhmmmmmm

Whilst at this stage there is no real cause for concern vis a vis candidate recruitment, so much more remains to be done.

On the upside we already have a full slate in 15 states – Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico :), North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota & Vermont.

We also have only 1 district to fill in 8 states – Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Mississippi, Oregon, South Carolina, West Virginia and Wyoming.  

On the other hand however Texas is a problem for us as it has been for the last two cycles with 17 Districts still to fill, and less than 5 months to close of filings (January 4th). So too do we have far too many vancancies in California and Florida but at least in these 2 states we do already have candidates in a number of Republican districts.

Any news, gossip or thoughts in the comments please.

Why Pennsylvania Matters So Much

Pennsylvania, my home state, will see a lot of big races in 2010. We are electing a new Governor – electing new members of Congress from vacant seats, have a Senate election, and progressive Democrats need to win in the State House and Senate races (We have a very un-progressive Republican state Senate, the only Republican chamber left in the Northeast). It is CRITICAL that the netroots and the grassroots and all of the progressives come together and focus on PA…it's very important.

Please read on to learn more about our 2010 races!

Pennsylvania has been a swing state for some time now so what happens here is VERY IMPORTANT nationwide.

U.S. Senate

Democrats have both Senate seats for the first time since 1968 (okay, January 1969) thanks to the Specter Switcheroo.

Pat Toomey is Rick Santorum 2.0, and he MUST NOT become our new Senator. Arlen Specter or Joe Sestak MUST win.

Our Senate race is very important and has NATIONAL IMPLICATIONS, especially since Arlen Specter is known throughout the country for his switch to the Democratic Party. If Senator Specter wins his primary, we must vigorously support his re-election, no matter what.  So that means no more of the Snarlin' Arlen comments!

The U.S. House

The House delegation has gone from 12-7 Republican to 11-8, with four Democratic pickups (The biggest Democratic sweep in ANY state in 2006- no other state had more than 3 pickups).  In 2008, Democrat Kathy Dahlkemper won in PA-3 (the Erie district) and now we are at 12-7, a complete reversal of pre-2006.

We want to make sure Democrats continue to stay on a roll.

PA-15

My Congressional district of PA-15 is going to be one of the most important races in the country (to me, THE most important House race and a bellwether for the entire nation). Charlie Dent, Republican, has had a VERY easy time winning here despite a prO-bama majority. Mayor John Callahan of Bethlehem is running for the Democratic nomination.  We must make him Congressman. Plus, if you ask me, he's kinda cute (-:

 Mayor Callahan's Campaign Site (Very new)

PA-8

Jim Gerlach is running in the Republican primary for Governor and we have (so far) Doug Pike, who I don't know much about but will support if he is the Democrat.  I think this is VERY winnable.  If Gerlach loses, I'm not so sure he can get back into the race.  Curt Schroder is already running.  A Pike victory will mean A LOT on Election Day since it is expected the Republicans will narrowly hold onto this seat in the Philly suburbs.  It's an Obama district though.

Governor's Race

We also have to watch the Governor's race- most likely it will be between Jack Wagner and Tom Corbett.  Ed Rendell will not have very good approval ratings which will bode poorly for the Democrat but hopefully Jack Wagner (or Dan Onorato from Pittsburgh) will run a top-notch campaign and really narrow that gap in the last few weeks.  My mind says Corbett though.  Please let me wrong.

State Senate

We have a ridiculous 30-20 Republican majority in the State Senate and it keeps getting bigger by the day, so to turn it blue we'll need SIX MAGIC SEATS to take it back (I'm assuming Democrats had control of it at one point).

We will have 25 chances to win the Senate (half of it is up for election in 2010) and most of these will remain the same, however…judging from previous election results, I see these six Republican seats as the most vulnerable (Keeping in mind that they were all last up in 2006, a Democratic year):

SD 6 – held by Robert Tomlinson (R), last won by 53.4%

SD 10 – held by Chuck McIlhinney (R), won by a measly 51.5% against Democrat Chris Serpico

SD 12 – held by Stewart J. Greenleaf (R), won by 57.4%

SD 16 – held by Pat Browne (R), won by 54.2%

SD 24 – Bob Wonderling (R), won by 56.5%

SD 26 – Edwin Erickson (R), won by 52.2% (his challenger in '06 was Mike Farrell)

SD 34 – Jacob Corman (R), won by 56.0% (but Democrat Jon Eich only got 39.1%)

SD 44 – John Rafferty (R), won by 56.2%

SD 50 – Bob Robbins (R), won by 53.5% (challenger was Art Allen)

 The good news is that all of the Democratic seats will likely, barring any unusual events, be safe so we can focus on these nine seats, which are ripe for a takeover.

 State House

Democrats hold onto a 104-99 majority.  It's clearly not a safe majority.

All of the 201-or-some House seats are up and there are a lot of opportunities to pick off some of these Republicans, so let's go through the seats where the Republican won by less than 60%:

HD 15 – Jim Christiana, 51.5%

HD 26 – Tim Hennessy, 52.1%

HD 57 – Tim Krieger, 51.7%

HD 75 – Matt Gabler, 52.8%

HD 128 – Sam Rohrer, 52.2%

HD 142 – Frank Farry, 51.7%

HD 146 – Thomas Quigley, 53.4%

HD 187 – Gary Day, 52.3%

If we win all of these eight seats (a nice goal), and keep onto our close seats, we will have a 112-91, which will be a significant improvement.

Worst Case Scenario

If the Republicans win PA big, we will have:

U.S. Senator Pat Toomey (formerly the president of right-wing Club for Growth and you can just imagine those tax breaks for the rich)

Governor Tom Corbett replacing the fairly progressive Ed

A 30-20 Republican Senate (I sincerely doubt they'll win any Democratic seats)

A Republican State House (which will pass an anti-gay marriage amendment to the Constitution, at top of their to-do list when they retake the House)

The loss of Democrats Paul Kanjorski (he barely won last time around), Jason Altmire (represents a very conservative district), Chris Carney (representing an even more conservative district), freshman Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper, Republican victories in the 6th and 15th, which will give the Republicans a pickup of FOUR seats…which would undo the results of 2006, and perhaps if Joe Sestak runs for the Senate and abandons his House seat they will have FIVE seat pickups.

So as you can see the stakes cannot be higher here in the Keystone State.

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

View Results

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MS-01 Race

http://www.clarionledger.com/a…

Looks like state senator Alan Nunnelee is planning on making the run.  Given Nunnelee’s lackluster performance in the state senate, I don’t see how he could possibly say he’s going to effect change in the Washington spends money.  It’ll make for a competitive race given that he and Rep. Childers are from the same neck of the woods.

House 2Q 2009 Fundraising Roundup

The second quarter reporting deadline for congressional candidates has now come and gone, so it’s time for SSP to gather up all the noteworthy fundraising numbers for 2010’s hot (and not-so-hot) House races.

Here’s the full chart, but if you see anything we missed, let us know in the comments:

A few quick notes:

  • The average amount raised by a Frontline participant was $278K, an improvement over the first quarter, when the average amount raised was $259K.
  • The Frontline member with the phattest second quarter haul was Jim Himes’ impressive $518K. The weakest? For the second quarter in a row, it’s Carol Shea-Porter and her $120K raised. Jeez Louise.
  • You may vaguely recall that the NRCC started their own copycat version of the DCCC’s Frontline program, titled the “Patriot Program“. Let’s take a look at their first ten participants, a batch that they finally rolled out in May (Lungren, Calvert, Bilbray, Biggert, Cao, McCotter, Paulsen, Lance, Lee and Reichert). Their average haul was $301K each — a big jump from that group’s average 1Q take of $167K. It’s a small group so far, but it appears that the Patriot project is having some effect.
  • Democratic challengers who out-raised Republican incumbents: Ami Bera (CA-03), Stephen Pougnet (CA-45), John Carney (DE-AL), and Charlie Justice (FL-10). (However, it must be noted that Justice’s haul was far from impressive.)
  • Republican challengers who out-raised Democratic incumbents: Van Tran (CA-47), Greg Ball (NY-19), and Bill Russell (PA-12). (Caveat: Bill Russell is a BMW Direct client, which explains where most of his money is laundered coming from — and going to.)
  • Overall, I’m struck by the lackluster sums from many highly-touted candidates on both sides of the aisle. For the Dems, Michael Bond (IL-10), Charlie Justice (FL-10), Paula Flowers (TN-03), and Bill Hedrick (CA-44) in particular will need to step up their game. But many GOP candidates had pretty underwhelming quarters, too: Charles Djou (HI-01), Sid Leiken (OR-04), Jon Barela (NM-01) and Frank Guinta (NH-01) were all well south of $100K this quarter. (If you can’t out-raise Carol Shea-Porter, something is wrong with you.) No doubt the crappy economy is tightening the cash flow for many candidates right now, but these candidates will have to start finding the money sooner rather than later.

Off to the 2010 Races! (GOP version).

Yesterday I took a look at our efforts to recruit House candidates for 2010. This time it is the Republicans.

Below the fold for all the details (and bring some eyewash) and hey go check out the shiny new 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

(Cross posted at Daily Kos, MyDD and Open Left)

As we assumed for us so should we assume for them; so all 178 Republican held districts can be considered filled (although I think we may sneak a win in the NY-23rd Special).

85 Democratic held Districts have confirmed GOP candidates:

AL-02 (Bright) – R+16,

AL-05 (Griffith) – R+12,

AZ-01 (Kirkpatrick) – R+6,

AZ-05 (Mitchell) – R+5,

AZ-07 (Grijalva) – D+6,

AZ-08 (Giffords) – R+4,

AR-01 (Berry) – R+8,

CA-01 (Thompson) – D+13,

CA-08 (Pelosi) – D+35,

CA-10 (VACANT) – D+11,

CA-11 (McNerney) – R+1,

CA-30 (Waxman) – D+18,

CA-32 (Chu) – D+15,

CA-47 (Sanchez) – D+4,

CA-53 (Davis) – D+14,

CO-03 (Salazar) – R+5,

CO-04 (Markey) – R+6,

CO-07 (Perlmutter) – D+4,

CT-02 (Courtney) – D+6,

CT-03 (DeLauro) – D+9,

CT-05 (Murphy) – D+2,

FL-02 (Boyd) – R+6,

FL-03 (Brown) – D+18,

FL-08 (Grayson) – R+2,

FL-11 (Castor) – D+11,

FL-17 (Meek OPEN) – D+34,

FL-19 (Wexler) – D+15,

FL-20 (Wasserman Schulz) – D+13,

FL-21 (Klein) – D+1,

FL-23 (Hastings) – D+28,

FL-24 (Kosmas) – R+4,

GA-12 (Barrow) – D+1,

HI-01 (Abercrombie OPEN) – D+11,

ID-01 (Minnick) – R+18,

IL-11 (Halvorson) – R+1,

IL-14 (Foster) – R+1,

IL-17 (Hare) – D+3,

IN-08 (Ellsworth) – R+8,

IN-09 (Hill) – R+6,

IA-02 (Loebsack) – D+1,

ME-02 (Michaud) – D+3,

MD-01 (Kratovil) – R+13,

MD-03 (Sarbanes) – D+6,

MD-08 (Van Hollen Jr) – D+21,

MA-02 (Neal) – D+9,

MA-04 (Frank) – D+14,

MA-05 (Tsongas) – D+8,

MI-09 (Peters) – D+2,

MI-12 (Levin) – D+12,

MN-04 (McCollum) – D+13,

NH-01 (Shea Porter) – D+0,

NH-02 (Hodes OPEN) – D+3,

NJ-12 (Holt) – D+5,

NY-01 (Bishop) – D+0,

NY-19 (Hall) – R+3,

NY-22 (Hinchey) – D+6,

NY-25 (Maffei) – D+3,

NC-04 (Price) – D+8,

NC-07 (McIntyre) – R+5,

OH-01 (Driehaus) – D+1,

OH-15 (Kilroy) – D+1,

OH-18 (Space) – R+7,

OK-02 (Boren) – R+14,

OR-04 (DeFazio) – D+2,

PA-03 (Dahlkemper) – R+3,

PA-12 (Murtha) – R+1,

RI-01 (Kennedy) – D+13,

RI-02 (Langevin) – D+9,

TN-04 (Davis) – R+13,

TN-06 (Gordon) – R+13,

TN-08 (Tanner) – R+6,

TX-16 (Reyes) – D+10,

TX-17 (Edwards) – R+20,

TX-18 (Jackson Lee) – D+24,

TX-29 (Green) – D+8,

VA-02 (Nye) – R+5,

VA-05 (Perriello) – R+5,

WA-03 (Baird) – D+0,

WA-06 (Dicks) – D+5,

WA-09 (Smith) – D+5,

WV-01 (Mollohan) – R+9,

WV-03 (Rahall) – R+6,

WI-04 (Moore) – D+22,

WI-07 (Obey) – D+3,

WI-08 (Kagen) – R+2,

15 Democratic held Districts have GOP candidates that are considering a run:

AR-02 (Snyder) – R+5,

CA-33 (Watson) – D+35,

CT-04 (Himes) – D+5,

IA-03 (Boswell) – D+1,

MS-01 (Childers) – R+14,

NV-03 (Titus) – D+2,

NJ-03 (Adler) – R+1,

NM-01 (Heinrich) – D+5,

NM-02 (Teague) – R+6,

NY-24 (Arcuri) – R+2,

NC-08 (Kissell) – R+2,

NC-11 (Shuler) – R+6,

PA-10 (Carney) – R+8,

PA-11 (Kanjorski) – D+4,

PA-17 (Holden) – R+6,

5 Democratic held Districts have rumoured GOP Party candidates:

KS-03 (Moore) – R+3,

LA-03 (Melancon) – R+12,

NY-29 (Massa) – R+5,

PA-04 (Altmire) – R+6,

PA-07 (Sestak) – D+3,

152 Democratic held Districts don’t have any GOP candidates:

AL-07 (Davis OPEN) – D+18,

AZ-04 (Pastor) – D+13,

AR-04 (Ross) – R+7,

CA-05 (Matsui) – D+15,

CA-06 (Woolsey) – D+23,

CA-07 (Miller) – D+19,

CA-09 (Lee) – D+37,

CA-12 (Speier) – D+23,

CA-13 (Stark) – D+22,

CA-14 (Eshoo) – D+21,

CA-15 (Honda) – D+15,

CA-16 (Lofgren) – D+16,

CA-17 (Farr) – D+19,

CA-18 (Cardoza) – D+4,

CA-20 (Costa) – D+5,

CA-23 (Capps) – D+12,

CA-27 (Sherman) – D+13,

CA-28 (Berman) – D+23,

CA-29 (Schiff) – D+14,

CA-31 (Becerra) – D+29,

CA-34 (Roybal-Allard) – D+22,

CA-35 (Waters) – D+31,

CA-36 (Harman) – D+12,

CA-37 (Richardson) – D+26,

CA-38 (Napolitano) – D+18,

CA-39 (Sanchez) – D+12,

CA-43 (Baca) – D+13,

CA-51 (Filner) – D+8,

CO-01 (DeGette) – D+21,

CO-02 (Polis) – D+11,

CT-01 (Larson) – D+13,

GA-02 (Bishop) – D+1,

GA-04 (Johnson) – D+24,

GA-05 (Lewis) – D+26,

GA-08 (Marshall) – R+10,

GA-13 (Scott) – D+15,

HI-02 (Hirono) – D+14,

IL-01 (Rush) – D+34,

IL-02 (Jackson Jr) – D+36,

IL-03 (Lipinski) – D+11,

IL-04 (Gutierrez) – D+32,

IL-05 (Quigley) – D+19,

IL-07 (Davis) – D+35,

IL-08 (Bean) – R+1,

IL-09 (Schakowsky) – D+20,

IL-12 (Costello) – D+3,

IN-01 (Visclosky) – D+8,

IN-02 (Donnelly) – R+2,

IN-07 (Carson) – D+14,

IA-01 (Braley) – D+5,

KY-03 (Yarmuth) – D+2,

KY-06 (Chandler) – R+9,

ME-01 (Pingree) – D+8,

MD-02 (Ruppersberger) – D+7,

MD-04 (Edwards) – D+31,

MD-05 (Hoyer) – D+11,

MD-07 (Cummings) – D+25,

MA-01 (Olger) – D+14,

MA-03 (McGovern) – D+9,

MA-06 (Tierney) – D+7,

MA-07 (Markey) – D+15,

MA-08 (Capuano) – D+32,

MA-09 (Lynch) – D+11,

MA-10 (Delahunt) – D+5,

MI-01 (Stupak) – R+3,

MI-05 (Kildee) – D+11,

MI-07 (Schauer) – R+2,

MI-13 (Kilpatrick) – D+31,

MI-14 (Conyers) – D+34,

MI-15 (Dingell) – D+13,

MN-01 (Walz) – R+1,

MN-05 (Ellison) – D+23,

MN-07 (Peterson) – R+5,

MN-08 (Oberstar) – D+3,

MS-02 (Thompson) – D+12,

MS-04 (Taylor) – R+20,

MO-01 (Clay) – D+27,

MO-03 (Carnahan) – D+7,

MO-04 (Skelton) – R+14,

MO-05 (Cleaver) – D+10,

NV-01 (Berkley) – D+10,

NJ-01 (Andrews) – D+12,

NJ-06 (Pallone) – D+8,

NJ-08 (Pascrell) – D+10,

NJ-09 (Rothman) – D+9,

NJ-10 (Payne) – D+33,

NJ-13 (Sires) – D+21,

NM-03 (Lujan) – D+7,

NY-02 (Israel) – D+4,

NY-04 (McCarthy) – D+6,

NY-05 (Ackerman) – D+12,

NY-06 (Meeks) – D+36,

NY-07 (Crowley) – D+26,

NY-08 (Nadler) – D+22,

NY-09 (Weiner) – D+5,

NY-10 (Towns) – D+38,

NY-11 (Clarke) – D+38,

NY-12 (Velazquez) – D+33,

NY-13 (McMahon) – R+4,

NY-14 (Maloney) – D+26,

NY-15 (Rangel) – D+41,

NY-16 (Serrano) – D+41,

NY-17 (Engel) – D+18,

NY-18 (Lowey) – D+9,

NY-20 (Murphy) – R+2,

NY-21 (Tonko) – D+6,

NY-27 (Higgins) – D+4,

NY-28 (Slaughter) – D+15,

NC-01 (Butterfield) – D+9,

NC-02 (Etheridge) – R+2,

NC-12 (Watt) – D+16,

NC-13 (Miller) – D+5,

ND-AL (Pomeroy) – R+10,

OH-06 (Wilson) – R+2,

OH-09 (Kaptor) – D+10,

OH-10 (Kucinich) – D+8,

OH-11 (Fudge) – D+32,

OH-13 (Sutton) – D+5,

OH-16 (Boccieri) – R+4,

OH-17 (Ryan OPEN) – D+12,

OR-01 (Wu) – D+8,

OR-03 (Blumenauer) – D+19,

OR-05 (Schrader) – D+1,

PA-01 (Brady) – D+35,

PA-02 (Fattah) – D+38,

PA-08 (Murphy) – D+2,

PA-13 (Schwartz) – D+7,

PA-14 (Doyle) – D+19,

SC-05 (Spratt) – R+7,

SC-06 (Clyburn) – D+12,

SD-AL (Herseth Sandlin) – R+9,

TN-05 (Cooper) – D+3,

TN-09 (Cohen) – D+23,

TX-09 (Green) – D+22,

TX-15 (Hinojosa) – D+3,

TX-20 (Gonzalez) – D+8,

TX-23 (Rodriguez) – R+4,

TX-25 (Doggett) – D+6,

TX-27 (Ortiz) – R+2,

TX-28 (Cuellar) – R+0,

TX-30 (Johnson) – D+27,

UT-02 (Matheson) – R+15,

VT-AL (Welch) – D+13,

VA-03 (Scott) – D+20,

VA-08 (Moran) – D+16,

VA-09 (Boucher) – R+11,

VA-11 (Connolly) – D+2,

WA-01 (Inslee) – D+9,

WA-02 (Larsen) – D+3,

WA-07 (McDermott) – D+31,

WI-02 (Baldwin) – D+15,

WI-03 (Kind) – D+4,

So the Republicans have confirmed candidates in 263 districts. Take a look at some of their challengers websites though and your eyeballs will bleed. They also have 15 districts with candidates that are considering a run and 5 districts with rumoured candidates.

Whilst they are behind us numerically they have more in ours than we have in theirs.

They also have some huge gaps in California and New York.

They already have a full House slate in Alaska, Delaware, Florida, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, West Virginia and Wyoming (we have 15 such states).

They also have but one slot to fill in Alabama, Arizona, Connecticut, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine,  North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah and Vermont (we have 7 such states).

Expect candidates to bob up with increasing frequency from here on in.

Any news, gossip or thoughts in the comments please.

More updates soon.

Off to the 2010 House Races for Team Blue!

In less than 17 months the midterms will be upon us.

In 2006 we fielded candidates in 425 districts and in 2008 candidates in 421.

How will we go in 2010?

Below the fold for all the details and hey go check out the shiny new 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

(Cross posted at Daily Kos, MyDD and Open Left)

Well for starters I think we can safely assume that we will field candidates in all 257 of the Districts that we currently hold (does anyone really think that we won’t win in CA-32 in July?).

So onto the Republican held districts:

40 GOP held Districts have confirmed Democratic Party candidates:

AL-03 (Rogers) – R+9,

AR-03 (Boozman) – R+16,

CA-03 (Lundgren) – R+6,

CA-24 (Gallegly) – R+4,

CA-26 (Dreier) – R+3,

CA-44 (Calvert) – R+6,

CA-45 (Bono Mack) – R+3,

CA-48 (Campbell) – R+6,

CA-50 (Bilbray) – R+3,

C0-06 (Coffman) – R+8,

DE-AL (Castle) – D+7,

FL-05 (Brown-Waite) – R+9,

FL-06 (Stearns) – R+10,

FL-07 (Mica) – R+7,

FL-10 (Young) – R+1,

FL-12 (Putnam OPEN) – R+6,

FL-14 (Mack) – R+11,

IL-10 (Kirk) – D+6,

IL-13 (Biggert) – R+1,

IL-18 (Schock) – R+6,

KS-04 (Tiahrt) – R+14,

KY-04 (Davis) – R+14,

KY-05 (Rogers) – R+15,

MD-06 (Bartlett) – R+13,

MN-06 (Bachmann) – R+7,

MI-11 (McCotter) – R+0,

MT-AL (Rehberg) – R+7,

NE-03 (Smith) – R+24,

NV-02 (Heller) – R+5,

NY-23 (McHugh) – R+1,

OH-02 (Schmidt) – R+13,

PA-06 (Gerlach) – D+4,

PA-16 (Pitts) – R+8,

TN-03 (Wamp OPEN) – R+13,

TN-07 (Blackburn) – R+18,

TX-26 (Burgess) – R+13,

SC-02 (Wilson) – R+9,

VA-07 (Cantor) – R+9,

WA-08 (Reichert) – D+3,

WI-01 (Ryan) – R+2,

10 GOP held Districts have Democratic Party candidates that are considering a run:

AK-AL (Young) – R+13,

CA-04 (McClintock) – R+10,

FL-16 (Rooney) – R+5,

LA-02 (Cao) – D+25,

NY-03 (King) – R+4,

OH-14 (LaTourette) – R+3,

PA-15 (Dent) – D+2,

TX-10 (McCaul) – R+10,

TX-32 (Sessions) – R+8,

WI-06 (Petri) – R+4,

4 GOP held Districts have rumoured Democratic Party candidates:

FL-13 (Buchanan) – R+6,

MN-03 (Paulsen) – R+0,

SC-01 (Brown) – R+10,

SC-03 (Barrett OPEN) – R+17,

124 GOP held Districts don’t have any Democratic Party candidates:

AL-01 (Bonner) – R+14,

AL-04 (Aderholt) – R+26,

AL-06 (Bachus) – R+29,

AZ-02 (Franks) – R+13,

AZ-03 (Shadegg) – R+9,

AZ-06 (Flake) – R+15,

CA-02 (Herger) – R+11,

CA-19 (Radanovich) – R+9,

CA-21 (Nunes) – R+13,

CA-22 (McCarthy) – R+16,

CA-25 (McKeon) – R+6,

CA-40 (Royce) – R+8,

CA-41 (Lewis) – R+10,

CA-42 (Miller) – R+10,

CA-46 (Rohrabacher) – R+6,

CA-49 (Issa) – R+10,

CA-52 (Hunter) – R+9,

C0-05 (Lamborn) – R+14,

FL-01 (Miller) – R+21,

FL-04 (Crenshaw) – R+17,

FL-09 (Bilirakis) – R+6,

FL-15 (Posey) – R+6,

FL-18 (Ros-Lehtinen) – R+3,

FL-21 (Diaz-Balart) – R+5,

FL-25 (Diaz-Balart) – R+5,

GA-01 (Kingston) – R+16,

GA-03 (Westmoreland) – R+19,

GA-06 (Price) – R+19,

GA-07 (Linder) – R+16,

GA-09 (Deal OPEN) – R+28,

GA-10 (Broun) – R+15,

GA-11 (Gingrey) – R+20,

ID-02 (Simpson) – R+17,

IL-06 (Roskam) – R+0,

IL-15 (Johnson) – R+6,

IL-16 (Manzullo) – R+2,

IL-19 (Shimkus) – R+9,

IN-03 (Souder) – R+14,

IN-04 (Buyer) – R+14,

IN-05 (Burton) – R+17,

IN-06 (Pence) – R+10,

IA-04 (Latham) – R+0,

IA-05 (King) – R+9,

KS-01 (Moran OPEN) – R+23,

KS-02 (Jenkins) – R+9,

KY-01 (Whitfield) – R+15,

KY-02 (Guthrie) – R+15,

LA-01 (Scalise) – R+24,

LA-04 (Fleming) – R+11,

LA-05 (Alexander) – R+14,

LA-06 (Cassidy) – R+10,

LA-07 (Boustany) – R+14,

MI-02 (Hoekstra OPEN) – R+7,

MI-03 (Ehlers) – R+6,

MI-04 (Camp) – R+3,

MI-06 (Upton) – R+0,

MI-08 (Rogers) – R+2,

MI-10 (Miller) – R+5,

MN-02 (Kline) – R+4,

MS-03 (Harper) – R+15,

MO-02 (Akin) – R+9,

MO-06 (Graves) – R+7,

MO-07 (Blunt OPEN) – R+15,

MO-08 (Emerson) – R+17,

MO-09 (Luetkemeyer) – R+9,

NE-01 (Fortenberry) – R+11,

NE-02 (Terry) – R+6,

NJ-02 (LoBiondo) – D+1,

NJ-04 (Smith) – R+6,

NJ-05 (Garrett) – R+7,

NJ-07 (Lance) – R+3,

NJ-11 (Frelinghuysen) – R+7,

NY-26 (Lee) – R+6,

NC-03 (Jones) – R+16,

NC-05 (Foxx) – R+15,

NC-06 (Coble) – R+18,

NC-09 (Myrick) – R+11,

NC-10 (McHenry) – R+17,

OH-03 (Turner) – R+5,

OH-04 (Jordan) – R+15,

OH-05 (Latta) – R+9,

OH-07 (Austria) – R+7,

OH-08 (Boehner) – R+11,

OH-12 (Tiberi) – D+1,

OK-01 (Sullivan) – R+16,

OK-03 (Lucas) – R+24,

OK-04 (Cole) – R+18,

OK-05 (Fallin OPEN) – R+13,

OR-02 (Walden) – R+10,

PA-05 (Thompson) – R+9,

PA-09 (Shuster) – R+17,

PA-18 (Murphy) – R+6,

PA-19 (Platts) – R+12,

SC-04 (Inglis) – R+15,

TN-01 (Roe) – R+21,

TN-02 (Duncan) – R+16,

TX-01 (Gohmert) – R+21,

TX-02 (Poe) – R+13,

TX-03 (Johnson) – R+14,

TX-04 (Hall) – R+21,

TX-05 (Hensarling) – R+17,

TX-06 (Barton) – R+15,

TX-07 (Culberson) – R+13,

TX-08 (Brady) – R+25,

TX-11 (Conaway) – R+28,

TX-12 (Granger) – R+16,

TX-13 (Thornberry) – R+29,

TX-14 (Paul) – R+18,

TX-19 (Neugebaeur) – R+26,

TX-21 (Smith) – R+14,

TX-22 (Olsen) – R+13,

TX-24 (Marchant) – R+11,

TX-31 (Carter) – R+14,

UT-01 (Bishop) – R+21,

UT-03 (Chaffetz) – R+26,

VA-01 (Wittman) – R+7,

VA-04 (Forbes) – R+4,

VA-06 (Goodlatte) – R+12,

VA-10 (Wolf) – R+2,

WA-04 (Hastings) – R+13,

WA-05 (McMorris Rodgers) – R+7,

WV-02 (Capito) – R+8,

WI-05 (Sensenbrenner) – R+12,

WY-AL (Lummis) – R+20,

So we now have candidate in 297 House Districts, 10 Districts with candidates considering their options and 4 with rumoured candidates.

Whilst in numerical terms we are about where we were at this stage in 2007 we do now hold 20 more districts but we also control the White House (still love saying that).

So at this stage there is no real cause for concern vis a vis candidate recruitment but so much more remains to be done.

On the upside we already have a full slate in 15 states – Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico :), North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota & Vermont.

We also have only 1 district to fill in 7 states – Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Mississippi, Oregon, West Virginia and Wyoming.  

On the other hand however Texas is a problem for us as it has been for the last two cycles with 19 Districts still to fill. So too do we have far too many vancancies in California and Florida but at least in these 2 states we do already have candidates in a number of Republican districts.

Expect candidates to bob up with increasing frequency from here on in.

Any news, gossip or thoughts in the comments please.

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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Uncontested, Four-and-a-Half Years Later

This old Chris Bowers post – in which he suggested Terry McAuliffe run for NY-25 in 2006 – lists 36 House seats we let go uncontested in 2004. What’s most interesting about this list is that Dems now control four of these seats:















































































































































































District Member Party PVI District Member Party PVI
AL-06 Bachus (R) R+29 MS-01 Childers (D) R+14
AZ-03 Shadegg (R) R+9 MS-03 Harper (R) R+15
AZ-06 Flake (R) R+15 NY-25 Maffei (D) D+3
CA-22 McCarthy (R) R+16 OK-03 Lucas (R) R+24
CA-41 Lewis (R) R+10 OK-04 Cole (R) R+18
FL-04 Crenshaw (R) R+17 PA-05 Thompson (R) R+9
FL-07 Mica (R) R+7 PA-10 Carney (D) R+8
FL-09 Bilirakis (R) R+6 PA-19 Platts (R) R+12
FL-21 Diaz-Balart (R) R+5 SC-01 Brown (R) R+10
FL-24 Kosmas (D) R+4 SC-03 Barrett (R) R+17
FL-25 Diaz-Balart (R) R+5 TN-07 Blackburn (R) R+18
GA-01 Kingston (R) R+16 TX-03 Johnson (R) R+14
GA-06 Price (R) R+19 TX-10 McCaul (R) R+10
GA-07 Linder (R) R+16 TX-13 Thornberry (R) R+29
GA-10 Broun (R) R+15 TX-14 Paul (R) R+18
KS-01 Moran (R) R+23 VA-01 Wittman (R) R+7
KY-05 Rogers (R) R+16 VA-06 Goodlatte (R) R+12
LA-04 Fleming (R) R+11 VA-07 Cantor (R) R+9

Obviously most of these districts are still utterly brutal territory. But we very nearly won two others in 2008 – LA-04 and SC-01. We also seriously contested four other seats last year (AZ-03, FL-21, FL-25 & TX-10), and came very close to winning NY-25 in 2006 (before Dan Maffei cruised to victory the following cycle). There aren’t too many other opportunities on this list, barring scandal or an open seat. Obama lost VA-01 by just 51-48, but we got crushed there in a special election in 2007. Still, it’s interesting to see how things have changed in just a few short years.