Tag: House

cross-posted at Bleeding Heartland

If you were a loyal Republican foot-soldier seeking re-election in a state that’s trending Democratic, where the Democratic presidential candidate has a commanding lead over your party’s nominee as well as a much bigger ground game in your own Congressional district, you might want to reinvent yourself.

Late last week, Tom Latham did just that in his first television commercial of this election cycle. You can view the ad at Latham’s campaign website. It focuses on a bill Latham introduced to address the nursing shortage in Iowa.

Judging from the content of this ad, Latham recognizes that 2008 will be a big Democratic year in Iowa.

Neither the commercial nor the campaign’s accompanying press release mention that Latham is a Republican. Instead, they note that he authored “bipartisan legislation” in a specific area.

Polls typically give Democrats an edge on handling health care and education. Even someone watching this ad with the sound turned down can see that Latham is portraying himself as sensitive to these issues. Here are the words that flash on the screen during the commercial:

Nursing Shortage (footage of ambulance with siren, nurse alongside patient on stretcher)

Iowa Faces Severe Nursing Shortage (hospital scenes)

Bipartisan Legislation (Latham sitting and writing)

Help Nurses Repay Education Loans (nurse with patients)

Tom Latham (as he talks with one of the nurses quoted in the ad)

In addition, Latham’s ad features three testimonials from nurses. One of them is “nurse practitioner Linda Upmeyer,” wearing a white nurse’s coat with a stethoscope around her neck, who says, “Tom has done a wonderful job of hearing the need and translating that into legislation.” Conveniently, the ad fails to identify Upmeyer as the Republican state representative from Iowa House district 12.  

The press release announcing Latham’s television ad is even more blatant about running away from the Republican label. It describes Latham as “bipartisan” twice and notes that he “teamed up with Wisconsin Democratic Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin to introduce this bill in the United States Congress.”

I never thought I’d see the day when the conservative Republican Latham would brag about working with Baldwin, who is openly gay and has one of the most progressive voting records in Congress. Latham’s voting record as a whole could hardly be more different from Baldwin’s.

Not only does Latham’s ad avoid mentioning his party affiliation, it seems designed to address the gender gap by having a female voice-over and three women nurses do almost all of the talking. The only male voice you hear is Latham’s at the very end, saying “I’m Tom Latham, and I approved this message.”

Democratic candidates tend to do better among women, and the disparity may be even greater this year in IA-04. Becky Greenwald is giving Iowans the chance to send a woman to Congress for the first time.

One clever feature of this ad is that it implies Latham has delivered for Iowa’s nurses, without mentioning whether the bill he authored has any chance of becoming law. The wording of the press release suggests that the bill has not advanced:

Latham teamed up with Iowa nursing and health care professionals through numerous roundtables around the state to listen to their unique perspective and input on what was needed. He then wrote legislation and teamed up with Wisconsin Democratic Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin to introduce the bill in the United States Congress.

You would think that someone who spent 14 years in Congress (12 of them as part of a Republican majority) would be able to point to some concrete achievement on behalf of nurses or in the area of health care.

Instead, the Latham campaign talks about his “trusted leadership” on the nursing shortage, when he has nothing to show for this “leadership” other than writing one bill that went nowhere.

By the way, Latham signaled last week that he is not willing to defend the totality of his record in a public forum. He declined an invitation from KCCI-TV and the Des Moines Register to debate Greenwald during prime-time television. Latham also refused invitations to debate in August.

In a debate, Latham might have to explain why he talks about helping nurses repay their student loans in his commercial, when he voted for enormous cuts to federal student loan programs in 2005 and 2006.

As a challenger, Greenwald has lower name recognition than Latham, and understandably used her first television ad to introduce herself to voters. With Latham avoiding debates and using skillful image construction to conceal his ineffectiveness, I believe Greenwald will need to run some television ads that spell out why she is seeking to replace “Iowa’s low-yield Congressman.”

UPDATE: The Greenwald campaign responded to this ad with a statement exposing Latham’s real record on health care.  

(Bumped – promoted by James L.)

In the wake of the Census Bureau releasing 2007 American Community Survey data by Congressional district, it’s time for another demographic data dump. (I previously wrote about population change here.) Today, let’s take a look at income and poverty numbers.

As with the population numbers, it’s more interesting to look at the change from 2000 to 2007, rather than simply asking who’s on top and who’s on bottom. VA-11 is always going to be wealthy; NY-16 is always going to be obscenely poor. Looking at change, however, provides some interesting insight into what districts are hurting more or less than before, and thus where economic-themed messaging might play best.

As you can see by many of the same districts showing up in each category, income and poverty correlate pretty closely. I’m including both median household income and per capita income since those can give very different results. They tend to vary depending on household size; PCI tends to be highest in affluent downtown districts with a lot of single-family households, while MHI is highest in suburban/exurban areas where people earn a lot but households full of kids drag down the PCI numbers.

Let’s start with biggest gains in median household income:

District	Rep.	2000	2007	Change
VA-08	Moran (D)	$63,430	$90,662	$27,232
VA-11	Davis (R)	$80,397	$103,664	$23,267
VA-10	Wolf (R)	$71,560	$93,701	$22,141
NY-14	Maloney (D)	$57,152	$78,843	$21,691
CA-44	Calvert (R)	$51,578	$71,923	$20,345
CA-48	Campbell (R)	$69,663	$89,758	$20,095
NY-01	Bishop (D)	$61,884	$81,221	$19,337
MD-08	Van Hollen (D)	$68,306	$86,971	$18,665
MD-05	Hoyer (D)	$62,661	$81,179	$18,518
CA-30	Waxman (D)	$60,713	$79,149	$18,436

More over the flip…

Now for the smallest gains (or drops) in median household income:

District	Rep.	2000	2007	Change
MI-14	Conyers (D)	$36,099	$35,228	– $871
MI-13	Kilpatrick (D)	$31,165	$30,842	– $323
TX-09	Green (D)	$34,870	$34,934	$64
GA-04	Johnson (D)	$47,943	$48,327	$384
TX-24	Marchand (R)	$56,098	$57,552	$1,454
MI-12	Levin (D)	$46,784	$48,417	$1,633
NC-12	Watt (D)	$35,775	$37,574	$1,799
MI-05	Kildee (D)	$39,675	$41,535	$1,860
NC-01	Butterfield (D)	$28,410	$30,441	$2,031
IL-02	Jackson (D)	$41,330	$43,380	$2,050

We’re getting into Dickensian tale-of-two-districts territory here, as you can see the rich districts getting richer (basically confined to the New York, Washington, and Los Angeles areas). The only surprise, to me, is CA-44, which is out in the Inland Empire and is seeing a lot of Latino growth. Apparently it’s also seeing a lot of growth of upscale subdivisions on its remaining patches of empty buildable ground.

Likewise, we’re seeing the poor getting poorer, as working-class blue-collar districts that have escaped the worst of urban poverty (like MI-14 and IL-02) slowly slide into poverty with the loss of manufacturing jobs. The main surprise (and only Republican held district) is TX-24, the suburban area around DFW airport, which is seeing a lot of Latino growth and white flight to the exurbs.

VA-11 has the highest MHI in both 2000 and 2007, followed by NJ-11. VA-10 (which was #12 in 2000), CA-14, and VA-08 (which was #28 in 2000) round out 2007’s Top 5, while CA-14, CA-15 (which fell to #16 in 2007), and NJ-07 round out 2000’s Top 5.

The lowest MHI for both 2000 and 2007 was in NY-16, followed by KY-05. In 2000, the bottom 5 also included WV-03, CA-31, and AL-07, while in 2007, several of the biggest plungers joined the bottom 5 (NC-01 and MI-13), along with MS-02.

Now let’s turn to per capita income, starting with the biggest gains:

District	Rep.	2000	2007	Change
NY-14	Maloney (D)	$53,752	$71,409	$17,657
NY-08	Nadler (D)	$39,901	$57,462	$17,561
VA-08	Moran (D)	$35,613	$50,413	$14,800
CA-30	Waxman (D)	$34,552	$45,435	$10,883
MD-08	Van Hollen (D)	$36,245	$47,163	$10,918
CA-08	Pelosi (D)	$34,552	$45,435	$10,883
CT-04	Shays (R)	$41,147	$51,868	$10,721
CA-48	Campbell (R)	$37,242	$47,737	$10,495
IL-07	Davis (D)	$25,329	$35,697	$10,368
GA-05	Lewis (D)	$25,963	$35,979	$10,016

And here are the smallest gains:

District	Rep.	2000	2007	Change
MI-14	Conyers (D)	$17,546	$18,047	$501
MI-13	Kilpatrick (D)	$17,078	$18,238	$1,160
MI-05	Kildee (D)	$19,823	$21,299	$1,476
MI-12	Levin (D)	$23,560	$25,263	$1,703
IL-02	Jackson (D)	$18,280	$20,004	$1,724
TX-09	Green (D)	$15,998	$17,825	$1,827
GA-07	Linder (R)	$25,214	$27,079	$1,865
WI-04	Moore (D)	$16,607	$18,591	$1,865
MI-15	Dingell (D)	$23,628	$25,651	$2,023
IN-07	Carson (D)	$19,559	$21,593	$2,034

These results show even more clearly the hit taken by Rust Belt inner cities, and in fact almost the entire Detroit area. The one surprise is another suburban GOP stronghold (for now): GA-07 in Gwinnett County, which is another area that’s increasingly becoming a first stop for immigrants of all nationalities, and a prime source of white flight to other burbs. (TX-09 seems to appear on these lists because it absorbed a large portion of New Orleans’ most impoverished residents.)

NY-14, followed by CA-30, had the highest PCI in both 2000 and 2007. The top 5 in 2000 also included CA-14, CT-04, and NY-08, while the top 5 in 2007 was rounded out with NY-08, CT-04, and VA-08.

The lowest PCI in both 2000 and 2007 was in NY-16, followed by CA-20 and TX-15. The bottom 5 in 2000 also included CA-31 and CA-34, while the bottom 5 in 2007 also included TX-29 and CA-34. Note that these lists are quite different from the bottom 5 in MHI; again, that tends to be a factor of household size. Here, the bottom 5 are all heavily Latino districts, where household size tends to be larger than the rural white or black districts that have the lowest MHIs.

Now let’s look at the highest poverty percentage changes:

District	Rep.	2000	2007	Change
MI-13	Kilpatrick (D)	24.4%	32.5%	8.1%
CO-07	Perlmutter (D)	8.9%	15.0%	6.1%
TN-09	Cohen (D)	19.4%	25.0%	5.6%
MI-14	Conyers (D)	19.7%	25.0%	5.3%
IN-07	Carson (D)	13.5%	18.7%	5.2%
OH-15	Pryce (R)	10.8%	16.0%	5.2%
SC-06	Clyburn (D)	18.4%	23.4%	5.0%
NC-12	Watt (D)	15.9%	20.9%	5.0%
TX-16	Reyes (D)	23.6%	28.6%	5.0%
MI-04	Camp (R)	10.5%	15.2%	4.7%

Finally, let’s look at lowest poverty percentage changes:

District	Rep.	2000	2007	Change
CA-43	Baca (D)	20.7%	12.5%	– 8.2%
CA-20	Costa (D)	32.2%	26.4%	– 5.8%
LA-02	Jefferson (D)	26.8%	21.1%	– 5.7%
NY-15	Rangel (D)	30.5%	25.6%	– 4.9%
CA-34	Roybal-Allard (D)	26.0%	21.1%	– 4.9%
CA-28	Berman (D)	19.1%	14.4%	– 4.7%
CA-38	Napolitano (D)	16.3%	11.6%	– 4.7%
CA-31	Becerra (D)	30.1	25.5	– 4.6%
CA-35	Waters (D)	26.4%	21.9%	– 4.5%
NY-16	Serrano (D)	42.2%	37.7%	– 4.5%

Again, these numbers show Michigan taking a pounding, as well as other Rust Belt cities. Maybe most noteworthy, we’ve come across our first competitive race in an economically distressed area: OH-15, in downtown Columbus. (One other district catching my eye was CO-07 in the Denver suburbs, where I would guess there’s a lot of Latino growth.) The last set of numbers actually shows something good: a large reduction in poverty rates in mostly-Latino districts, especially in the Los Angeles area but in New York as well.

The most impoverished district in both 2000 and 2007 is NY-16 (despite its improvement over the years). In 2000, it was followed by CA-20 (which fell to #10 in 2007), NY-15 (which fell to #15 in 2007), TX-15, and CA-31. In 2007, it was followed by MI-13 (up from #20 in 2000), TX-15, PA-01, and TX-16 (up from #24 in 2000).

The least impoverished districts in 2000 were CO-06, IL-13, WI-05, NJ-07, and NJ-11. In 2007, that list changed to NJ-07, NJ-11, NJ-05, NY-03, and CA-42.

The Northeast (Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island & Vermont) has been sharply trending towards the Democratic party for some years now. Increasingly at a State and Federal level Republicans are finding it harder to get elected in the Northeast, be they conservatives or moderates, particularly in statewide races. And this years election seems certain to thin out their ranks even further.

We now have 7/9 Governors, 14/18 Senators and 51/65 House Districts!

Below the line for a look at the 14 GOP held House Races in the Northeast in 2008.

Well now 14 members of that most endangered of species the Northeast House Republican. And can you believe 5 open races in more or less Democrat friendly districts – WOW!

And so on with the show:

CT-04 – D+5 – Shays

It is appropriate that the first race we look at is one of the most competitive, CT-04, pitting Chris Shays against our guy Jim Himes. This one will be a barnburner which makes it curious that I can’t find any polling of the district. Located in the Southwest part of the state it overlaps the New York media market and many people who live in the 4th commute to NYC for work.

As the only GOP survivor in New England Shays seems to be popular but as the Iraq war becomes increasingly unpopular Shays’ fervent support for the war and the President himself makes this one race to watch. Both candidates are cashed up and either could win.

CT-04 is one of 8 districts carried by Kerry in 2004 occupied by a House Republican.  

DE-AL – D+7 – Castle

GOP incumbent Mike Castle is considered safe and I see no reason to not beileve that. Whilst Dem Karen Hartley-Nagle will run a solid campaign this district is unlikely to flip this time around. Of more interest to me is whether Castle will switch parties after the election or retire in 2010 (He had a stroke in 2006). Or if Lt Gov John Carney or Attorney General Beau Biden have a crack Castle may be vulnerable if he runs again in 2010.

DE-AL is another of the 8 districts that Kerry carried in 2004 occupied by a House Republican and in fact this is the district with the highest Kerry vote – 57% – occupied by a Republican.

NJ-02 – D+4.0 – LoBiondo

LoBiondo doged a bullet when Democratic State Senator Jeff Van Drew opted not to run against him in this district that Bush won by less than 1% and that is occupied by 2 Democratic State Senators.

Our candidate David Kurkowski will have a real slog to get this race on the radar with the open races in the 3rd and 7th. Look for Van Drew to run and win in 2010.

NJ-03 – D+3.3 – OPEN

The first of our open races this one sees Democratic State Senator John Adler running against Chris Myers. Bush won this district 51-49 and Adler has a massive COH advantage – 1.46M to 155K. Polling indicates a tight race but I expect Adler to win comfortably as he is well known through the district and genuinely popular.

NJ-04 – R+0.9 – Smith

This central Jersey district was won by Bush in 2004 56 to 44 but was won by Gore in 2000 50 to 46. With a plethora of other competitive races around this one has not been on the radar and probably won’t be. Josh Zeitz is to be applauded for having a go but 2008 probably won’t be his year. 2010 maybe?

NJ-05 – R+4 – Garrett

A district that shouldn’t be on the radar is so largely because our guy Dennis Shulman is a blind rabbi who has been getting a lot of media attention. Won by Bush in 2004 57-43 this is one of two districts in New Jersey that are considered generically safe for Repubs. If Shulman can pull it off then expect a lot of house districts to be picked up by us on election day. Shulman is down 3 to 1 in COH which is ok but he really needs to step up the fundraising.

NJ-07 – R+1 – OPEN

Another open race this one pits 2006 candidate Democrat Linda Stender against State Senator Leonard Lance. Michael Hsing, a conservative republican is also running as an independent which will take votes from Lance. Both camps have released polls that show their candidate is winning. Despite the fact that Bush won this district 53-47 in 2004 I expect Stender to win at her second time at bat as she only lost by about 1000 votes in 2006. Stender has a massive COH advantage – 1.2M-88K btw and that can only help!

NJ-11 – R+6 – Frelinghuysen

This district that Bush won 58-42 in 2004 is the safest GOP in New Jersey and unlikely to flip. Our guy, 2006 candidate Tom Wyka, is putting in a valiant effort but will most likely fall short. This district is a rarity in the Northeast, a safe GOP district.

NY-03 – D+2.1 – King

This Long Island based district is not on the radar for 2008. Democrat Graham Long hasn’t set the world on fire and won’t with all of the oxygen being sucked up by the 13th. This race may have been competitive if 2006 candidate Dave Mejias had run again be he is running for the State Senate instead 🙁 Look for Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi or Mejias to run in 2010. King has said that he will running in the gubernatorial race in 2010 so we should pick this one up then.

NY-13 – D+1 – OPEN

No race in the country has been more of a soap opera than NY-13. I will spare you the details and say simply this. Democratic candidate Michael McMahon will win and win big over a divided dispirited Republican party and their 3rd tier candidate. McMahon is even endorsed by GOP powerbroker Guy Molinari. And he lives on Staten Island a vital prerequisite in this district unlike his republican opponent. Chalk this one up as a win for team blue.

NY-23 – R+0.2 – McHugh

John McHugh is a safe bet for re-election here over a low profile candidate, Mile Oot. The attenton in upstate New York will all be focused on the 25th, 26th and 29th. Sheesh even the unions endorse McHugh who seems genuinely popular. He was rumoured to be retiring in 2008 and may do so in 2010. Either way expect a competitive race here in 2010 not 2008.

NY-25 – D+3 – OPEN

Democrat Dan Maffei never stopped running since 2006 and is considered very likely to win this open seat over Republican Dale Sweetland. He has about $1M COH and of course upstate New York is rapidly bluing. The one poll I have seen had Maffei only a point in front but that was back in April. I think that the NRCC has given up here and with good reason, Dan’s gonna win. NY-25 is one of 8 districts carried by Kerry in 2004 occupied by a House Republican.  

NY-26 – R+3 – OPEN

There was a huge shock here when Democrat Kryzan won a bloody primary over DCCC preferred Jon Powers. Nonetheless Kryzan came out reasonably clean and may well pull it off in a district where Bush won 55-43 in 2004. Kryzan needs to step up her fundraising a lot but again the DCCC has weighed with advertising expenditure. When we see some polling we will get a better sense of how this one is playing but this district is still very much in play as Gopper Chris Lee hasn’t exactly set the world on fire. Watch this space.

NY-29 – R+5 – Kuhl

Democratic 2006 candidate Eric Massa is back for a rematch in this upstate district that is the most GOP friendly district in New York. Bush won 56-42 in 2004. Don’t discount Massa though as incumbent Randy “shotgun” Kuhl is certainly vulnerable (and repellant). Haven’t seen any public polling here but the candidates are basically at parity in terms of COH and the DCCC is stumping up for advertising big time. Expect a close race.

So whilst the Northeast won’t provide much excitement at the Presidential level this year the House races (and Senate BTW) will be all the fun of the fair. I think that we will probably win between 4 and 7 of these races further decimating an already shredded GOP. The Northeast is well on the way to becoming a one party region and this year will see further shifts in that direction.

Here at Whitfield Trucking, business was getting slow. We couldn’t understand why so many Kentuckians who were suffering with high gas prices would object so much to us driving an empty tractor-trailer around the First Congressional District of Kentucky. Do they not own hundreds of thousands of dollars in Exxon and Chevron stock like we do? Why would they object to us getting rich off their pain?

Well, to figure out how to turn our business fortunes around, our CEO Exxon Ed Whitfield decided to meet with the wisest business mind he knew:

He told us we should not be driving an empty tractor-trailer around. He said that we simply must start delivering for the citizens of this district.

Luckily for us, he pointed out that Whitfield Trucking HAS delivered much more than our empty tractor-trailer would suggest. We hadn’t realized it, but our little company has delivered plenty. We have delivered a myriad of failed policies, lovingly rubber-stamped for President Bush that has

made us rich while our district has fallen further behind and our economy has crashed into the ditch. Just look at what all we have delivered in our once empty tractor-trailer. First we delivered for President Bush, and the Credit Card Companies:

Voted YES on Bankruptcy Overhaul requiring partial debt repayment.

Vote to pass a bill that would make it easier for courts to change debtors from Chapter 7 bankruptcy, which allows most debts to be dismissed, to Chapter 13, which requires a repayment plan.

Reference: Bill sponsored by Gekas, R-PA; Bill HR 333 ; vote number 2001-25 on Mar 1, 2001

http://www.ontheissues.org/Hou…

Then, we delivered the Bush Administration Energy Policy written by Dick Cheney, and the Energy Companies, which has led to record prices for our fellow Americans:

Voted YES on passage of the Bush Administration national energy policy.

Vote to pass a bill that would put into practice a comprehensive national policy for energy conservation, research and development. The bill would authorize o $25.7 billion tax break over a 10-year period. The tax breaks would include $11.9 billion to promote oil and gas production, $2.5 billion for “clean coal” programs, $2.2 billion in incentives for alternative motor vehicles, and $1.8 billion for the electric power industry and other businesses. A natural gas pipeline from Alaska would be authorized an $18 billion loan guarantee. It would add to the requirement that gasoline sold in the United States contain a specified volume of ethanol. Makers of the gasoline additive MTBE would be protected from liability. They would be required though to cease production of the additive by 2015. Reliability standards would be imposed for electricity transmissions networks, through this bill. The bill would also ease the restrictions on utility ownership and mergers.

Reference: Energy Policy Act of 2004; Bill HR 4503 ; vote number 2004-241 on Jun 15, 2004

http://www.ontheissues.org/Hou…

Then, we delivered for the People’s Republic of Communist China:

Voted NO on deterring foreign arms transfers to China.

To authorize measures to deter arms transfers by foreign countries to the People’s Republic of China, A YES vote would grant the President the ability to place sanctions on any individual or country that violates the arms embargo, including:

Denial of participation in cooperative research and development

Prohibition of ownership and control of any business registered as a manufacturer or exporter of defense articles or services

Removal of all licenses relative to dual-use goods or technology

Prohibition of participation of any foreign military sales

Reference: East Asia Security Act; Bill HR 3100 ; vote number 2005-374 on Jul 14, 2005

http://www.ontheissues.org/Hou…

Then, we delivered for the beloved lobbyists that fund our campaigns:

Voted NO on requiring lobbyist disclosure of bundled donations.

Amends the Lobbying Disclosure Act of 1995 to require a registered lobbyist who bundles contributions totaling over $5,000 to one covered recipient in one quarter to:

file a quarterly report with Congress; and

notify the recipient.

“Covered recipient” includes federal candidates, political party committees, or leadership PACs [but not regular PACs].  

Reference: Honest Leadership and Open Government Act; Bill H R 2316 ; vote number 2007-423 on May 24, 2007

http://www.ontheissues.org/Hou…

Then, we delivered for President Bush, our hero in helping him to shred the worthless piece of paper known as the Constitution:

Voted NO on requiring FISA warrants for wiretaps in US, but not abroad.

Reference: RESTORE Act; Bill H.R.3773 ; vote number 08-HR3773 on Mar 14, 2008

Voted NO on Veto override: Congressional oversight of CIA interrogations.

Bill Veto override on H.R. 2082 ; vote number 08-HR2082 on Mar 11, 2008

Voted YES on allowing electronic surveillance without a warrant.

Reference: Update the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act of 1978; Bill H.R.5825 ; vote number 2006-502 on Sep 28, 2006

Voted YES on continuing intelligence gathering without civil oversight.

Reference: Intelligence Authorization Act; Bill HR 5020 resolution H RES 774 ; vote number 2006-108 on Apr 26, 2006

http://www.ontheissues.org/Hou…

As you can see, our tractor-trailer is far from empty. It is filled with all the wonderful offerings of a failed President, rubber-stamped by a failed Congressman. We are hoping to keep this work going, so Congressman Whitfield’s failed staff can continue making over twice the median income of working families in this district working for him. It is the least we can do for the voters of this district, quite literally. Please support Exxon Ed Whitfield and keep the dream of Whitfield Trucking alive, so we can continue to get rich.

Please support Heather Ryan in Kentucky’s First, and close the doors on Whitfield Trucking for good!!:

Anyone donating $30 or more recieves a free Ryan for Congress T-Shirt!!

Candidate filing is now complete and whilst we won’t do as well as 2006 we still have candidates in 421 districts. Oh yeh and I am flying over from Australia in 10 days to spend the rest of the campaign volunteering for a house candidate!

Below the fold for details and once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.  

***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

421 races filled! This of course includes 236 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 185 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):

Districts with confirmed candidates – 185

Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 0

Districts with rumoured candidates – 0

Districts without any candidates – 0

Filing closed – No Democratic candidate – 14

The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:

AL-02 – R+13,

AL-03 – R+4,

AL-04 – R+16,

AK-AL – R+14,

AZ-01 – R+2,

AZ-02 – R+9,

AZ-03 – R+6,

AZ-06 – R+12,

CA-02 – R+13,

CA-03 – R+7,

CA-04 – R+11,

CA-21 – R+13,

CA-24 – R+5,

CA-25 – R+7,

CA-26 – R+4,

CA-40 – R+8,

CA-41 – R+9,

CA-42 – R+10,

CA-44 – R+6,

CA-45 – R+3,

CA-46 – R+6,

CA-48 – R+8,

CA-49 – R+10,

CA-50 – R+5,

CA-52 – R+9,

CO-04 – R+9,

CO-05 – R+15.7,

CO-06 – R+10,

CT-04 – D+5,

DE-AL – D+7,

FL-01 – R+19,

FL-04 – R+16,

FL-05 – R+5,

FL-06 – R+8,

FL-07 – R+3,

FL-08 – R+3,

FL-09 – R+4,

FL-10 – D+1,

FL-12 – R+5,

FL-13 – R+4,

FL-14 – R+10,

FL-15 – R+4,

FL-18 – R+4,

FL-21 – R+6,

FL-24 – R+3,

FL-25 – R+4,

GA-01 – R+?,

GA-03 – R+?,

GA-06 – R+?,

GA-07 – R+?,

GA-09 – R+?,

GA-10 – R+?,

GA-11 – R+?,

ID-01 – R+19,

ID-02 – R+19,

IL-06 – R+2.9,

IL-10 – D+4,

IL-11 – R+1.1,

IL-13 – R+5,

IL-15 – R+6,

IL-16 – R+4,

IL-18 – R+5.5,

IL-19 – R+8,

IN-03 – R+16,

IN-04 – R+17,

IN-05 – R+20,

IN-06 – R+11,

IA-04 – D+0,

IA-05 – R+8,

KS-01 – R+20,

KS-04 – R+12,

KY-01 – R+10,

KY-02 – R+12.9,

KY-04 – R+11.7,

LA-01 – R+18,

LA-04 – R+7,

LA-07 – R+7,

MD-01 – R+10,

MD-06 – R+13,

MI-02 – R+9,

MI-03 – R+9,

MI-04 – R+3,

MI-06 – R+2.3,

MI-07 – R+2,

MI-08 – R+1.9,

MI-09 – R+0,

MI-10 – R+4,

MI-11 – R+1.2,

MN-02 – R+2.7,

MN-03 – R+0.5,

MN-06 – R+5,

MO-02 – R+9,

MO-06 – R+5,

MO-07 – R+14,

MO-08 – R+11,

MO-09 – R+7,

MS-03 – R+14,

MT-AL – R+11,

NE-01 – R+11,

NE-02 – R+9,

NE-03 – R+23.6,

NV-02 – R+8.2,

NV-03 – D+1,

NJ-02 – D+4.0,

NJ-03 – D+3.3,

NJ-04 – R+0.9,

NJ-05 – R+4,

NJ-07 – R+1,

NJ-11 – R+6,

NM-01 – D+2,

NM-02 – R+6,

NY-03 – D+2.1,

NY-13 – D+1,

NY-23 – R+0.2,

NY-25 – D+3,

NY-26 – R+3,

NY-29 – R+5,

NC-03 – R+15,

NC-05 – R+15,

NC-06 – R+17,

NC-08 – R+3,

NC-09 – R+12,

NC-10 – R+15,

OH-01 – R+1,

OH-02 – R+13,

OH-03 – R+3,

OH-04 – R+14,

OH-05 – R+10,

OH-07 – R+6,

OH-08 – R+12,

OH-12 – R+0.7,

OH-14 – R+2,

OH-15 – R+1,

OH-16 – R+4,

OK-01 – R+13,

OK-03 – R+18,

OK-04 – R+13,

OK-05 – R+12,

OR-02 – R+11,

PA-03 – R+2,

PA-05 – R+10,

PA-06 – D+2.2,

PA-09 – R+15,

PA-15 – D+2,

PA-16 – R+11,

PA-18 – R+2,

PA-19 – R+12,

SC-01 – R+10,

SC-02 – R+9,

SC-03 – R+14,

SC-04 – R+15,

TN-01 – R+14,

TN-02 – R+11,

TN-03 – R+8,

TN-07 – R+12,

TX-03 – R+17,

TX-04 – R+17,

TX-06 – R+15,

TX-07 – R+16,

TX-08 – R+20,

TX-10 – R+13,

TX-12 – R+14,

TX-13 – R+18,

TX-19 – R+25,

TX-24 – R+15,

TX-26 – R+12,

TX-31 – R+15,

TX-32 – R+11,

UT-01 – R+26,

UT-03 – R+22,

VA-01 – R+9,

VA-02 – R+5.9,

VA-04 – R+5,

VA-05 – R+6,

VA-06 – R+11,

VA-07 – R+11,

VA-10 – R+5,

VA-11 – R+1,

WA-04 – R+13,

WA-05 – R+7.1,

WA-08 – D+2,

WV-02 – R+5,

WI-01 – R+2,

WI-06 – R+5,

WY-AL – R+19,

The following GOP held districts have a candidate that is expected to run but is yet to confirm:

None

The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!

None

The following districts have not a single rumoured candidate:

None

And last but not least the list I did not want to have to include.

The following Republicans will not have a Democratic opponent in 2008:

AL-01 – R+12,

Our candidate withdrew.

AL-06 – R+25,

No candidate for the second election in a row.

AR-03 – R+11,

Our candidatre withdrew all Arkansas incumbents unopposed (3D, 1R and Democrtaic Senator Mark Pryor).

CA-19 – R+10,

Our candidate withdrew.

CA-22 – R+16,

No candidate appeared.

KY-05 – R+8,

Our candidate withdrew to run in the Senate Primary (He got trounced).

LA-05 – R+10,

Our likely candidate declined to run.

TX-01 – R+17,

Our 2006 candidate is running as an Independent.

TX-02 – R+12,

A candidate set up an exploratory committee but did not go on with it.

TX-05 – R+16,

Our candidate didn’t file.

TX-11 – R+25,

Our candidate filed too late.

TX-14 – R+14,

Our candidate switched parties!

TX-21 – R+13,

A candidate filed with the FEC but then didn’t file with the SOS.

WI-05 – R+12,

Our candidate withdrew.

So there you go :). 421 is still a fantastic effort but gee it could have easily been 430+.

As for me I will be spending the last five weeks of the campaign volunteering for Dan Seals in IL-10 (Yeh my version of a holiday), followed by a couple of weeks in NYC hanging out and playing tourist.

The first 2010 House diary will be posted in January with a lot less than 199 GOP districts to find candidates for

Go Obama!!!

Benawu

This past Friday morning in Venango County all 3 candidates for the 5th Congressional District appeared at the Venango County Chamber of Commerce Breakfast Candidate Forum.   During this event, the issue of fiscal responsibility, the $482 billion budget deficit and the $9.7 trillion federal debt came up several times.   Fiscal responsibility is perhaps the single issue that clearly defines the difference between me and my opponents in this campaign.

Since day one of my candidacy I’ve stressed that we must bring the federal budget back in balance, return to growing a surplus and make the long term commitment to paying down our debt to foreign countries.  My Republican opponent stated again on Friday that he supports extending the Bush tax cuts.   Contrary to what he says, I continue to believe the first step to return to fiscal responsibility is to allow the Bush tax cuts to expire.  Below is a chart from the Congressional Budget Office that shows the negative impact the Bush tax cuts had on the federal budget along with projections of what will happen when they expire.

Be advised, the chart above was released in January of 08, months before the Bush administration themselves announced a record deficit of $482 billion when they leave office in January of 09.  The chart above actually had a more optimistic projection of a deficit of around $220 billion for 08/09.

While John McCain and many Republicans running for Congress continue to support the idea of “trickle down” economics, there is no proof that this type of fiscal policy will succeed, especially with the unstable condition the nation’s economy is in.  Consider that banks are failing, the housing bubble has burst, the mortgage / foreclosure crisis, the bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the American auto industry is seeking federal loan guarantees along with and other economic indicators that show the US economy in turmoil.  There are too many problems that require financial intervention from the federal government at a time when our federal government is in it’s fiscally weakest condition ever.

I continually point to the fact of how well off the economy was in the late 90’s when we were showing fiscal responsibility with a balanced budget, a growing surplus and a decreasing debt load.  Then, George W. Bush took office on January 20th, 2001 with a record budget surplus and he, along with the Republican controlled Congress, chose to halt fiscally responsible policy for the quick gratification of a tax cut that mostly benefited the wealthiest 5% of the citizens.  Even more problematic was when President Bush made the decision to begin the Iraq war, he failed to adjust his fiscal policies to pay for it.  

We must recognize that the fiscal mess, while blame lies directly with George W. Bush and Congress, is our nation’s #1 problem and it must be dealt with before we can move forward on solving other domestic problems.  In order to fix this problem, it is going to take sacrifice on the part of everyone.   Unfortunately, it is the people at the top who benefited the most from the Bush tax cuts that cry out “they want to take away MY TAX CUT”.   These same people must be reminded that while they benefited from the Bush tax cuts, it is now “our deficit and our debt” regardless of who the politicians were that made the irresponsible decisions to get us in this hole.   If we were to assign a moral to the story of the George W. Bush presidency, it would be reasonable to say “The Rich Got Richer, The Poor Got Poorer and the Middle Class Had To Pay For It”.

While members of the next Congress will have tough choices to make on how to deal with this fiscal mess, voters will first have to make their own tough choice on November 4th.  Before you vote on November 4th ask yourself this – Do you want to solve this problem now or have it grow larger and pass it on to your children and grandchildren?   Make no mistake — The Bill Must Be Paid at some point.   Voters need to look at this issue in this context: If you were running a business that was having financial problems and you had the choice to hire a person that identified why your business was failing and how to fix it VERSUS a person who was in denial that the problem exists and fails to recognize what caused the problem — which person would you hire to solve this problem?  

I am the only candidate on the ballot in the 5th Congressional District who recognizes the problem and will commit to making the tough / responsible choices to solve this problem that will ultimately secure a better future for our children and grandchildren.   It won’t be easy, but we were on the right track in the 90’s and we can get back there again.  

Here is a link to a story about the 5th District race that is on goerie.com

http://www.goerie.com/apps/pbc…

Highlights From The Past Week:

Last Sunday, Kelly, Amanda and I had a wonderful time attending the Democratic picnics in Clinton and Lycoming Counties.   On Tuesday, I invited Art Goldschmidt of State College to travel with me to Tioga County to attend the opening of the Tioga County Obama / Democratic Headquarters.  Wednesday we were in St. Marys attending a labor rally for both myself and State Rep. Dan Surra that was organized by various labor unions.  

Special thanks to the Pennsylvania AFL-CIO for providing the Billy Bus for an appearance at the rally in St. Marys.  Friday was the aforementioned Venango County Chamber Candidate Forum.   In the evening on Friday I attended the 50th Anniversary of the Brady Township Fire Company in Luthersburg, Clearfield County.

Saturday, Henry Guthrie and I spent the day in Warren County attending the opening of the Obama / Democratic Headquarters in Warren and later in the day we attended the Warren County Democratic Committee Steak Dinner.   Below are some pictures from the events in Warren County.

Warren County Obama HQ Opening Pictures:

Warren County Democratic Committee Steak Dinner:

Schedule for the Upcoming Week:

Sunday — Mike Hanna Event in Moshannon PA — 3 PM

Tuesday — Visit to Clarion County Democratic HQ — Meeting with Clarion / Venango County Supporters — 7 PM

Wednesday — Moshannon Valley EDC Candidate Breakfast Forum — 8 PM Philipsburg Country Club,  Centre County Realtors Lunch — State College — Noon  /  Elk County Democratic Meeting — 7 PM

Thursday — DuBois Chamber of Commerce Legislative Day — DuBois Country Club — 5 PM

Friday — Venango County Chamber of Commerce Breakfast Candidate Forum — Franklin PA — 7:30 AM,  Brady Township in Clearfield County VFD 50th Anniversary Dinner — 6 PM

Saturday — Festival in Johnsonburg — Elk County / Elk Expo — Kersey / Sykesville Gun Raffle — 5:30 PM

Sunday — Union Twp Fire Co. 50th Annv. Celebration / Truck Show — Rockton PA

IMPORTANT – Keith Bierly is still signing up people to participate in the “We’re Backin McCracken Golf Outing” on Monday September 22nd beginning at 8 AM at the Belles Springs Golf Course – Clinton County.  Please contact Keith at keithbierly@yahoo.com.

REMINDER — Keep talking with people about the 5,000 Friends to Flip the Fifth project.   We can win the 5th District Congressional District for the first time in 32 years but we need to be organizing our forces heading into the final weeks.   While it’s my name that will be on the ballot on November 4th, this victory will be for all the hard working people of the 5th Congressional District.

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

————————————————————————————————–

This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

UPDATE: On September 16 EMILY’s List announced their endorsement of two more Congressional challengers: Becky Greenwald in IA-04 (D+0) and Sharen Neuhardt in OH-07 (R+6).



Maybe someone out there who knows the inner workings of EMILY’s List can explain to me why this group has not put money behind Becky Greenwald, the Democrat challenging loyal Republican foot-soldier Tom Latham in Iowa’s fourth Congressional district.

I have been going over the list of Democratic women running for Congress whom EMILY’s List is supporting, with a particular focus on the six challengers most recently added to this group in early August. I do not mean to denigrate any of those candidates, and I recognize that every race has its own dynamic.

However, after comparing Greenwald’s race to those of other candidates, I remain puzzled that EMILY’s list is not more involved in IA-04.

Follow me after the jump for more.

First things first: IA-04 has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+0. Since 2004, every Congressional district in Iowa has seen big gains in Democratic voter registration, which surged in connection with this year’s presidential caucuses. For the first time since Iowa’s districts were last redrawn, IA-04 now has more registered Democrats than Republicans.

Democrats have an advantage in the generic Congressional ballot nationwide, but what may be more relevant for this district is Barack Obama’s big lead over John McCain in Iowa (double-digits according to the two most recent polls). The Obama campaign’s enormous ground game in Iowa will be working in Greenwald’s favor too. Her staffers and volunteers seem pleased with the level of coordination between the campaigns’ turnout efforts.

Turning to Greenwald as a candidate, you can see from her bio that she has strong roots in the district as well as experience in the business world and a history of volunteering for causes including the Iowa Democratic Party. She dominated the four-way Demomcratic primary on June 3, winning over 50 percent of the vote. As of June 30, she had raised about $143,000 for her campaign but had only about $82,000 cash on hand because of her competitive primary.

Several Iowa political analysts observed this summer that Greenwald can beat Tom Latham if she can raise enough money to compete. Latham serves on the House Appropriations Committee and was sitting on more than $800,000 cash on hand as of June 30. Then again, plenty of well-funded incumbents have lost seats in Congress when facing a big wave toward the other party. Cook has this race as likely R, but I would consider it lean R. There have been no public polls on the race yet.

The current reporting period ends September 30. I don’t have inside information about Greenwald’s cash on hand now, but I know she has been aggressively fundraising all summer long. I assume things have gone fairly well on that front, because the DCCC just put IA-04 on its “Emerging Races” list. One thing working in Greenwald’s favor is that the Des Moines and Mason City markets, which cover most of the 28 counties in the district, are not too expensive for advertising. So, she can be up on the air for several weeks, even though she clearly won’t be able to match Latham dollar for dollar.

Side note: Shortly after the Democratic primary in IA-04, the sore loser who finished third vowed to run for Congress as an independent. However, he quickly turned his attention to the fight against Iowa’s new smoking ban. He then failed to submit petitions to qualify for the ballot, took down his Congressional campaign website and reportedly moved to Florida. In other words, he won’t be a factor in November.

Why should EMILY’s list get involved in this race? Not only is Greenwald a good fit for the district, she is pro-choice whereas Latham has a perfect zero rating on votes related to abortion rights.

As a bonus, Greenwald has the potential to end Iowa’s disgrace as one of only two states that have never sent a woman to Congress or elected a woman governor.

Now, I will briefly examine the six candidates for U.S. House whom EMILY’s list most recently endorsed. As I said earlier, I don’t mean to knock any of these candidates, but I do question why these districts would be considered more winnable than IA-04.

1. Anne Barth. She is running against incumbent Shelley Moore Capito in West Virginia’s second district (R+5, somewhat more Republican than IA-04). Cook has this race as lean R, Swing State Project sees it as likely R. As of June 30, Barth had about $353,000 cash on hand, compared to more than $1.2 million for Capito. My understanding is that this district is quite expensive for advertising because of its proximity to Washington, DC.

2. Sam Bennett. She is running against incumbent Charlie Dent in Pennsylvania’s 15th Congressional District (D+2, slightly more Democratic than IA-04). Cook and Swing State Project both rate this race as likely R, although Chris Bowers is optimistic given the partisan lean of the district. As of June 30, Bennett had just under $354,000 cash on hand, compared to about $687,000 for Dent.

3. Jill Derby. She is running against incumbent Dean Heller, who beat her in the 2006 election to represent Nevada’s second district (R+8, markedly more Republican than IA-04). It’s not too uncommon for Congressional candidates to win on their second attempt, but Cook and Swing State Project both view this district as likely R. As of June 30, Derby had about $314,000 cash on hand, while Heller had just over $1 million in the bank.

4. Judy Feder. This is another rematch campaign, as incumbent Frank Wolf beat Feder by a comfortable margin in 2006 in Virginia’s 10th Congressional District (R+5). Again, Cook and Swing State Project agree that this is a likely R district. As of June 30, Feder was doing quite well in the money race with about $812,000 cash on hand, not too far behind Wolf’s $849,000.

5. Annette Taddeo. She is running against incumbent Ileana Ros-Lehtinen in Florida’s 18th Congressional District (R+4). Cook and Swing State Project both rank this district as likely R. Taddeo made a great impression on people at Netroots Nation and had just under $444,000 in the bank on June 30, while the incumbent reported nearly $1.9 million.

6. Victoria Wulsin. In 2006, she fell just short against incumbent “Mean Jean” Schmidt in Ohio’s second district (R+13). Granted, Schmidt is ineffective as an incumbent, which is probably why Swing State Project has this in the lean R category (it’s likely R according to Cook). Wulsin also had about $378,000 in the bank on June 30, compared to about $390,000 for Schmidt. Still, this is a markedly more Republican district than IA-04.

I understand that EMILY’s List does not have unlimited resources, but I still find it surprising that they have not jumped in to support Greenwald. A little money goes a long way in the Mason City and Des Moines media markets.

If you want to help send her to Congress, go here and give what you can. September 15 is her birthday, by the way.

I look forward to reading your comments about EMILY’s list or any of these Congressional races.

Cross posted at dailykos: Ia-o5: Hubler takes on Steve King!

Here’s a campaign I am getting excited about–Rob Hubler in IA-05 . I’d like to encourage you all to take a look at this (surprisingly) competitive race. We’ve got a real chance to send a progressive, democratic, smart, thoughtful, mature candidate to congress from what is traditionally considered a deep red district. Bonus points: we get to send one of the worst congressmen in the world packing!

We get behind races all over the country: Darcy Burner, Andrew Rice, John Hall, Jon Powers, Scott Kleeb, Eric Massa, Gary Trauner, Charlie Brown-I think this is one race we haven’t looked at closely yet that is worthy of our attention. I’d like to see if we can get some energy  for IA-05 and Rob Hubler here in the blogosphere.

So what’s a nice blue state girl like me doing touting a +8 red district?  Follow me below the fold to find out why this red district is well-positioned to exchange a great progressive candidate for one of the worst wingnuts in Congress.

Contribute through ActBlue

 

So first, why is “Democracylover in NYC” touting a race in Iowa?

I was honored and thrilled to be accepted into Russ Feingold’s Patriot Corps this fall and was looking forward to going to Iowa to work on Rob Hubler’s campaign . Sadly, (and I do mean sadly) I was unable to make it for logistical and financial reasons. But I still got a good look at Hubler and when I saw what a great race this is, I was determined to help, even if I’m stuck in blue New York.

I am convinced that we have a real shot at winning in this traditionally deep red district. Let me describe to you why and how. Then I encourage each of you, if you agree, to help out in whatever way you can (contributions, message amplification etc). Below my very loose analysis (I am not a campaign wonk) of why I think this is a great race.

Throw the bum out…

First for those who are motivated to “throw the bums out” there ain’t no bigger bum in congress than Steve King. I won’t spend too much time on the negative (though for those that like that sort of thing you may want to look at www.kingwatch.org for a comprehensive list at King’s positions, gaffes and general ickiness. I’ll only say a few things

1) He’s the guy that infamously said Islamic fundamentalists would be dancing in the streets when Barack Hussein Obama is elected president…

2) Here’s a recent interview with King in which our hero takes his bigotry  further as he slams Obama . He also comes out pro-“drill, baby, drill” and pro strict constructionist judges. Not exactly the positions we (and most Iowans, as I understand it) would like to see.

3) King has a net negative job approval rating.  And  some well respected and well-connected Iowa republicans are quietly working to get rid of someone even they perceive as an embarrassment to their party.

4) He was voted worst person in the world…by CNBC!!!!

Replace the bum with a true progressive:

First it’s important to remember this is the first time  a serious candidate is running against King. Rob’s positions are good, strong, progressive and much better aligned to his constituents positions than King’s.

Rob Hubler is a serious candidate, who supportsuniversal healthcare, a hybrid economy, andopposed retroactive immunity for telecoms .

And Rob’s personal story is unique and full of heart. He’s a decorated veteran who served his country seven years on the first nuclear-powered submarine, and as a nuclear plant operator. He went on to an impressive career in progressive politics working to help Dick Clark and Tom Harkin among others. Hubler left politics in 1989 to follow his calling as a presbyterian minister (like his father and uncles before him), pastoring churches throughout the midwest and California. He retired from the ministry in 2000 to take care of his dying father and sick aunt (while teaching disabled children) before returning to politics at the request of friends and former colleagues who felt he could make a difference. This is a candidate who puts the heart in heartland.

The situation on the ground:

Rob  has spent 18 months running an aggressive campaign and positioning his organization for a strong finish. The campaign has 6 field offices open with a full complement of paid and volunteer veteran staff. The Iowa coordinated campaign is running canvasses and has regional full time staff working with Hubler’s group.  Meanwhile Hubler is coordinating with the huge Iowa Obama organization which has placed 20 organizers in the 5th district alone (!).  All the Obama data is shared and they are able to base targeted mail on independents they already know are supporting a democratic ticket.

There is growing support for Rob’s campaign. He’s brought Joe Trippi as Media Advisor on board, and beloved former congressman, Dean supporter and local icon Berkley Bedell is now General Chair to the campaign. Bedell was in congress for 12 years, was known for his populist stances and for  winning deep republican counties with 60% of the vote. Rob’s communications director, Keith Dinsmore, ran 1/3 of the newspapers in the state, has worked on many campaigns, and knows how to talk with Iowans. It’s a great, thoughtful campaign.

Rob has been selected for funding and staff support from the Patriot Corps as noted above, and he has active support from Governer Chet Culver, former Governer Vilsack, and Senator Harkin.

Meanwhile in King’s Court:

Let’s  take a look at King’s organization…Well, he has his son, who is a car salesman, paid as his manager. He has no campaign offices and no staff except a spokeswoman. That’s it. Seriously. He has no plan on the ground. This is a major weakness, folks. We can hit King before he knows what happened.

What about the famous republican “War Chest”? Surely King has money to burn? King had as of mid August, less than a quarter of a million dollars. This is the least amount of money of any incumbent in Iowa, Democrat or Republican.

Can we win? You bet we can!

I know, I know it’s all very nice unless we have a viable race. This is a red district …yep, that’s true. At the bottom, I know people don’t want to waste time and money where they don’t think it can accomplish much. Well let me tell you this could be one of the most satisfying victories ever on election day. Let’s  take a look at some recent polling numbers.

The first and only poll conducted in this race, shows that these candidates are neck-and-neck. In a nutshell, likely voters are tipping in Hubler’s favor with dissent in republican ranks and independents breaking democratic. All that’s missing? Name recognition and some national support. A couple of ads in the district could put Hubler over the top.

The findings are so compelling I’ll let them speak for themselves**:

Our recent poll results indicate that Iowa’s 5th Congressional District has officially reached the tipping point, as the generic ballot between any “Democrat” and a “Republican” for Congress starts out virtually even, 36% to 38%.   Key results are as follows:

– The first finding of note, as mentioned above, is that the generic ballot choice, one without any information about the candidates, is tied at 36% Democrat and 38% Republican. In addition, the key subgroup of Independents favor the “Democrat”  by a 35% to 29% margin.  

– After hearing one positive statement about Hubler and nothing critical of King, voters are quickly able to reevaluate the congressional race, preferring Hubler over King by 47% to 30%.  This again underscores how potentially fluid this electorate is.  Hubler is a different type of nominee for this district, and his views match up more closely with voters then their current congressman’s.

– King’s job rating is a poor showing of only 36% excellent/good to 43% only fair/poor; aside from the fact that it is a net negative showing, one should note that 36% approval is a long way from 50%; voters are clearly connecting the dots between their discontent and King’s work in Washington.

**Four hundred registered, likely 2008 voters were interviewed.  The poll was designed to assess the strengths and weaknesses of Rob Hubler and his opponent Steve King as candidates for Congress.

Likely voters in the 5th district of Iowa are ready to fire Steve King.  Our challenge is to get the resources in place to communicate Rob’s message so that they know him well enough to hire him as their new Congressman.

So what can you do to make a difference?

As always, contribute, contribute, contribute. And get the word out. As we know we’re all committed to more and better democrats from everywhere.

Also just because I couldn’t get out there, that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t yourselves. If you are anywhere near Western Iowa in the next few weeks, please get out and help. I’ve been in touch with these guys and they are a great, great team. Also there are Obama offices all over the state. We can turn Iowa blue, boys and girls, and we should do it!

So take a closer look. See if this is someone you can get behind. Write to your friends who think nationally about Hubler if you like what you see. Bug the DFA. Tell the good Doctor to take a close look. And put him on your support list if you can.

This is Democracylover in NYC with her heart in the heartland…

Contribute to Rob Hubler

As we move into the final 2 months in the campaign for the 5th Congressional District, the economic conditions in the 5th district will play a key role in the outcome of this race.  The facts are clear that rural north central and northwest Pennsylvania lags behind the rest of the state and nation in economic development and opportunities for our citizens.  Recent unemployment statistics released by the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry shows that 2 counties in the 5th district, Cameron and Forest, have the 2 highest unemployment rates in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.  Additionally, 15 of the 17 counties in the 5th district have unemployment rates over 5%, which is unacceptable.

While the unemployment news is bad enough, worse is the most recent median household income figures reported by the US Census Bureau — 2006 American Communities Survey showing that citizens in the 5th district earn on average almost $12,000 less per year than the rest of the United States.  This is an abysmal number and is one of the main reasons that the best and brightest of our young people tend to leave our communities after high school and college graduation.  Why would they stay when the cost for food, clothes, gas, utilities and other necessities are the same as the rest of the country while income levels are much less in the 5th district?

What is needed for the 5th district to combat a continuation of the high unemployment rates and lower than average income levels is a commitment to have a “Rural Renewal” in the 5th Congressional District.  When I am your congressman, I plan to work on the idea of having a rural renewal for rural north central and northwest Pennsylvania that will bring investment for necessary infrastructure improvements to all our counties and communities.  I will work as a direct partner with county commissioners and economic development agencies to determine what upgrades are needed in the various counties and then work with state and federal level officials to secure funding for important projects.  

The idea for a “Rural Renewal” will only work if voters in the 5th district realize that turning around the economic fortunes of this district starts with them on November 4th.  While the economic indicator numbers referenced above are recent numbers from June of 2008 for the unemployment figures and from 2006 for the median income levels, these are trends that have continued in the 5th district for several decades.  These trends have continued over the last 12 years under our current representative in Washington and likely will continue unless the next member of Congress from the 5th District makes a real commitment to changing these trends.  My commitment is that I will be the lead partner with our state and county level elected officials along with economic development and business leaders to bring a rural renewal to the 5th district.  

The question voters must ask themselves is this:  Do you want More of the Same high unemployment and low wages or do you want Something Better in a Rural Renewal for the 5th Congressional District?

Schedule for the Upcoming Week:

Sunday — Clinton County Picnic at 1 PM / Lycoming County Picnic at 3 PM

Monday –  American Federation Of Government Employees Council Of Prison Locals, Local 3974 — Bradford PA — 5 PM

Tuesday — Tioga County / Mansfield — Obama / Democratic HQ Opening — 5 PM

Wednesday — Surra / McCracken Labor Rally — St. Marys — 3 PM

Friday — Venango County Chamber of Commerce Breakfast Candidate Forum — Franklin PA — 7:30 AM,  Brady Township in Clearfield County VFD 50th Anniversary Dinner — 6 PM

Saturday — Warren County HQ Opening — 3 PM  Warren County Democratic Steak Cookout Picnic — 5 PM

Sunday — Mike Hanna Fundraiser — Moshannon PA — 3 PM

We look forward to seeing you out there on the campaign trail!

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

————————————————————————————————–

This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

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The Census Bureau recently started to release 2007 American Community Survey data for the whole country broken down by congressional district. I’m going to start with total population figures, as that may be the most important figure: while it doesn’t tell us how the composition of the district has changed recently, it does give us a pretty clear picture of the trajectory different districts are on, in terms of where they’ll be come redistricting time in 2010. (I’ll get to income and poverty numbers in a different diary soon. Other information, such as race, education, and age, hasn’t been released and won’t be for a few more weeks.)

I’ll start with the districts which have experienced the greatest population gain. These are the areas that will have to shed the most population (often into newly-created districts).

District	Rep.	2000	2007	Change
AZ-06	Flake (R)	641,360	944,706	303,346
NV-03	Porter (R)	665,345	949,685	284,340
AZ-02	Franks (R)	641,435	923,694	282,259
GA-07	Linder (R)	630,511	874,059	243,548
TX-10	McCaul (R)	651,523	889,342	237,819
FL-05	Brown-Waite (R)	639,719	870,558	230,839
CA-45	Bono Mack (R)	638,553	850,429	211,876
TX-26	Burgess (R)	651,858	843,902	192,044
NC-09	Myrick (R)	619,705	811,360	191,655
TX-22	Lampson (D)	651,657	843,070	191,413
FL-14	Mack (R)	639,298	827,747	188,449
CA-44	Calvert (R)	639,008	821,102	182,094
GA-06	Price (R)	630,613	808,518	177,905
TX-03	S. Johnson (R)	651,782	828,598	176,816
AZ-07	Grijalva (D)	640,996	797,355	156,359
GA-03	Westmoreland (R)	630,052	777,210	147,158
UT-03	Cannon (R)	744,545	891,668	147,123
GA-09	Deal (R)	629,678	774,544	144,866
ID-01	Sali (R)	648,922	791,628	142,706
CO-06	Tancredo (R)	614,491	755,315	140,824
FL-08	Keller (R)	639,026	778,960	139,934
VA-10	Wolf (R)	643,714	780,534	136,820
WA-08	Reichert (R)	655,029	790,781	135,752
IL-14	Foster (D)	654,031	787,087	133,056
FL-25	M. Diaz-Balart (R)	638,315	770,952	132,637

Much more over the flip…

Now here are the districts that have lost the most population between 2000 and 2007, and which will need to absorb the most surrounding territory (or be eliminated and dispersed into surrounding districts).

District	Rep.	2000	2007	Change
LA-02	Jefferson (D)	639,048	385,399	– 253,649
PA-14	Doyle (D)	645,809	547,019	– 98,790
MI-13	Kilpatrick (D)	662,844	568,760	– 94,084
PA-02	Fattah (D)	647,350	556,246	– 91,104
OH-11	vacant	630,668	539,938	– 90,730
IL-07	D. Davis (D)	653,521	586,439	– 67,082
NY-28	Slaughter (D)	654,464	588,681	– 65,783
IL-04	Gutierrez (D)	653,654	589,874	– 63,780
MI-14	Conyers (D)	662,468	599,005	– 63,463
NY-27	Higgins (D)	654,200	598,044	– 56,156
IL-17	Hare (D)	653,531	598,742	– 54,789
CA-09	Lee (D)	639,426	584,787	– 54,639
KS-01	Moran (R)	672,051	617,449	– 54,602
AL-07	A. Davis (D)	635,631	581,269	– 54,362
MS-02	B. Thompson (D)	710,996	656,843	– 54,153
TN-09	Cohen (D)	631,740	577,995	– 53,745
PA-05	Peterson (R)	646,326	594,617	– 51,709
CA-53	S. Davis (D)	638,703	587,042	– 51,661
MN-05	Ellison (D)	614,874	565,407	– 49,467
OH-17	Ryan (D)	630,316	581,058	– 49,258
MA-08	Capuano (D)	635,185	587,438	– 47,747
OH-10	Kucinich (D)	631,003	585,892	– 45,111
MI-12	Levin (D)	662,559	617,539	– 45,020
PA-01	Brady (D)	645,422	600,957	– 44,465
MO-01	Clay (D)	621,497	577,240	– 44,257

Note the high number of Republican districts on the growth list, and the high number of Democratic districts on the shrinkage list. The first list is 25 of the districts that are some of the most archetypal exurbs, and the second list is mostly the inner cities of the Rust Belt. Now, I could go all David Brooks on you, and make the case that this spells doom for the Democrats, because Democrats are either dying out or else moving to the exurbs as complete blank slates who get turned into Republicans when they eat the magic GOP fairy dust that they sprinkle over the salad bar at Applebee’s.

However, this needs to be viewed through the lens of the bluening of the people remaining in the cities, and, maybe more importantly, the bluening of the people in the inner ring suburbs. In fact, there’s probably something of a ripple effect going on: people moving from the city to the inner ring suburbs, bringing their city values with them, and people already in the inner city suburbs looking around them, not liking what they see anymore, and moving further out to the exurbs. (Which isn’t to say the suburbs-to-exurbs migration is consciously for racist or ideological reasons; it might be expressed purely in terms of wanting a bigger house with granite countertops, or having more elbow room separating them from neighbors. For whatever reasons, though, someone predisposed to valuing that, more so than an easier commute, a walkable neighborhood, or more interaction with neighbors, may also likelier to be predisposed to being a Republican.)

In addition, immigration plays a big factor. Traditionally, cities were the beachhead for wave after wave of immigrants in American history, but now many of them are making their first stop in the suburbs or even exurbs. As I said earlier, 2007 race data isn’t available yet, but when it is, you’ll see that much of the growth in the fastest growing districts (TX-10 and GA-07 especially come to mind) is non-white. (There’s also another consideration: migration from other states, and people bringing their northern values with them to the Sun Belt.)

Note that this is different from a list of purely the most and least populous districts. Here are the ten most populous districts:

District	Rep.	2000	2007	Change
NV-03	Porter (R)	665,345	949,685	284,340
AZ-06	Flake (R)	641,360	944,706	303,346
MT-AL	Rehberg (R)	902,195	933,264	31,069
AZ-02	Franks (R)	641,435	923,694	282,259
UT-03	Cannon (R)	744,545	891,668	147,123
TX-10	McCaul (R)	651,523	889,342	237,819
GA-07	Linder (R)	630,511	874,059	243,548
FL-05	Brown-Waite (R)	639,719	870,558	230,839
UT-02	Matheson (D)	744,287	857,741	113,454
UT-01	Bishop (R)	744,377	852,082	107,705

And the ten least populous:

District	Rep.	2000	2007	Change
LA-02	Jefferson (D)	639,048	385,399	– 253,649
RI-01	Kennedy (D)	524,189	506,472	– 17,717
WY-AL	Cubin (R)	493,782	508,840	+ 15,058
RI-02	Langevin (D)	524,130	512,250	– 11,880
NE-03	A. Smith (R)	570,532	537,076	– 33,456
OH-11	vacant	630,668	539,938	– 90,730
PA-14	Doyle (D)	645,809	547,019	– 98,790
IA-05	King (R)	585,171	548,055	– 37,116
PA-02	Fattah (D)	647,350	556,246	– 91,104
MN-05	Ellison (D)	614,874	565,407	– 49,467

As you can see, these lists aren’t quite as interesting, because of some oddball picks where states started out the decade with either very large (Montana, Utah) or very small (Rhode Island, Iowa) districts, because their populations put them on the cusp of whether or not to get an extra seat. (Or in the case of Wyoming, because there are so few people there at all.) However, I suppose it might be interesting to start a betting pool as to when Rhode Island drops to one at-large seat (2020?).