Tag: 2008 Elections

Yesterday I wrote about how Gordon Smith and the Oregon Republican party had released a web ad and website smearing Jeff Merkley’s record.  Today, the DSCC fired back with a brilliant ad nailing Gordon Smith on the war on Iraq.  See more below the jump…

Cross-posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

First things, first, if you’ll recall, Gordon Smith and the NRSC released the following web ad a few days back criticizing Merkley’s appearance in some issue ads funded by the Democratic Party of Oregon:

Today the DSCC fires back with an ad (not a web ad, an actual TV ad) criticizing Smith, and particularly his insistence that he is bipartisan and supports tax cuts for real families:

Let me know what you think and if you want to help Jeff take back this country by taking out one of Dubya’s most loyal friends, donate at: http://www.jeffmerkley.com/

Proof that Jeff Merkley is gaining fast in his quest to be the next Senator from the great state of Oregon increases by the day.  In the latest, the Oregon GOP goes after Merkley’s supposed campaign finance violations and then puts up a pathetic website attempting to smear Merkley’s tax record.  More below the jump.

Cross-posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

The first item today is an ad put out by the NRSC opposing Jeff Merkley’s appearance in some issue ads sponsored by the OR D’s:

The ad makes referrence of a website (http://www.musttaxmerkley.com/) which supposedly proves Merkley has a pro-tax increase record.  Some facts:

1. The newest article on this page is nearly four months old.  Oh and as I was writing this, their site went down…

2. If you go to the “Jeff Merkley’s Record” page, they give two examples of how Merkley supposedly supports higher taxes and bad budget policies  The second is his vote for a renovation of the State Capitol, which was supported by both parties.  Trust me when I say that the pipes were in bad enough condition that the water that came out of them was brown, not to mention other problems the building had.

Enjoy the smell of fear folks, they’re reeking of it.  

Exxon Ed Whitfield has been trying to clean up his voting record for this election year. He knows it is a bad year for Republicans, and that he has been a shameless enabler of every failed policy of the Bush Administration. All the election year scuffling to clean up his record cannot hide the fact that he has been a constant, bitter opponent to reform of our healthcare system, and of providing equal access to those in poverty as those with wealth to healthcare. Lets look at some of Exxon Eddie’s votes to limit the access of healthcare to working Americans

Oh goodness, where to begin? There have been so many bad votes by Ed Whitfield on this issue, it boggles the mind. However, lets start with Whitfield’s vote way back in 2000 to try and turn over Medicaire Drug coverage to the insurance companies, who we all know can be trusted to look out for our interests over their profits. (NOT):

Voted YES on subsidizing private insurance for Medicare Rx drug coverage.

HR 4680, the Medicare Rx 2000 Act, would institute a new program to provide voluntary prescription drug coverage for Medicare beneficiaries through subsidies to private plans. The program would cost an estimated $40 billion over five years and would go into effect in fiscal 2003.

Reference: Bill sponsored by Thomas, R-CA; Bill HR 4680 ; vote number 2000-357 on Jun 28, 2000

http://www.massscorecard.org/H…

You see, in the twisted world of men like Exxon Ed Whitfield, profits for Insurance and Oil companies always come before people. Think I am exagerrating? Lets keep looking at the record Eddie wants us to forget:

Voted NO on allowing reimportation of prescription drugs.

Pharmaceutical Market Access Act of 2003: Vote to pass a bill that would call for the Food and Drug Administration to begin a program that would permit the importation of FDA-approved prescription drugs from Australia, Canada, the European Union, Iceland, Israel, Japan, Lichtenstein, New Zealand, Norway, Switzerland and South Africa.

Reference: Bill sponsored by Gutknecht, R-MN; Bill HR.2427 ; vote number 2003-445 on Jul 24, 2003

http://www.massscorecard.org/H…

Yes, in Exxon Eddie’s world, the sick and elderly should be required to pay the high prices of drugs to protect the profits of drug companies, even when safe, cheaper drugs are available from trustable countries who don’t have a powerful drug lobby.

It gets even worse. Not only does Exxon Eddie believe Americans should pay higher drug prices to protect profits, evidently he believes some Americans who desperately need prescription drugs should not have access to them:

Voted YES on limited prescription drug benefit for Medicare recipients.

Medicare Prescription Drug and Modernization Act of 2003: Vote to adopt the conference report on the bill that would create a prescription drug benefit for Medicare recipients. Starting in 2006, prescription coverage would be made available through private insurers to seniors. Seniors would pay a monthly premium of an estimated $35 in 2006. Individuals enrolled in the plan would cover the first $250 of annual drug costs themselves, and 25 percent of all drug costs up to $2,250. The government would offer a fallback prescription drug plan in regions were no private plans had made a bid.Over a 10 year time period medicare payments to managed care plans would increase by $14.2 billion. A pilot project would begin in 2010 in which Medicare would compete with private insurers to provide coverage for doctors and hospitals costs in six metropolitan areas for six years. The importation of drugs from Canada would be approved only if HHS determines there is no safety risks and that consumers would be saving money.

Reference: Bill sponsored by Hastert, R-IL; Bill HR.1 ; vote number 2003-669 on Nov 22, 2003

http://www.massscorecard.org/H…

That makes perfect sense in the world of Exxon Ed Whitfield, Insurance profits before people, at all costs. Even if it means denying people the medications they desperately need and struggle to afford. However, it continues to get much worse. Not satisfied in denying life-giving medications, Exxon Eddie would deny treatment of the working poor too:

Voted YES on denying non-emergency treatment for lack of Medicare co-pay.

Vote to pass a resolution, agreeing to S. AMDT. 2691 that removes the following provisions from S 1932:

Allows hospitals to refuse treatment to Medicaid patients when they are unable to pay their co-pay if the hospital deems the situation to be a non-emergency

Excludes payment to grandparents for foster care

Reference: Reconciliation resolution on the FY06 budget; Bill H Res 653 on S. AMDT. 2691 ; vote number 2006-004 on Feb 1, 2006

In the world of Exxon Eddie, it makes perfect sense to let those who are making a profit decide whether it is an emergency for those who may not be able to pay to recieve treatment.

In keeping with the theme of protecting Insurance profits at all costs, once again we see how Whitfield would keep drug prices high, to protect his big money contributors:

Voted NO on requiring negotiated Rx prices for Medicare part D.

Would require negotiating with pharmaceutical manufacturers the prices that may be charged to prescription drug plan sponsors for covered Medicare part D drugs.

Proponents support voting YES because:

This legislation is an overdue step to improve part D drug benefits. The bipartisan bill is simple and straightforward. It removes the prohibition from negotiating discounts with pharmaceutical manufacturers, and requires the Secretary of Health & Human Services to negotiate. This legislation will deliver lower premiums to the seniors, lower prices at the pharmacy and savings for all taxpayers.

It is equally important to understand that this legislation does not do certain things. HR4 does not preclude private plans from getting additional discounts on medicines they offer seniors and people with disabilities. HR4 does not establish a national formulary. HR4 does not require price controls. HR4 does not hamstring research and development by pharmaceutical houses. HR4 does not require using the Department of Veterans Affairs’ price schedule.

Reference: Medicare Prescription Drug Price Negotiation Act; Bill HR 4 (“First 100 hours”) ; vote number 2007-023 on Jan 12, 2007

http://www.massscorecard.org/H…

Now, if you think it could not get much worse than this, unfortunately you are sadly mistaken. Exxon Ed Whitfield puts profits over people, even CHILDREN!!! Yes, in the twisted world of men like Ed Whitfield, profits are so much more important than even the health of our children that he would vote not once, but twice to make sure that Insurance Company profits are protected at all costs, even over the well-being of American children:

Voted NO on adding 2 to 4 million children to SCHIP eligibility.

Allows State Children’s Health Insurance Programs (SCHIP), that require state legislation to meet additional requirements imposed by this Act, additional time to make required plan changes. Pres. Bush vetoed this bill on Dec. 12, 2007, as well as a version (HR976) from Feb. 2007.

Proponents support voting YES because:

Rep. DINGELL: This is not a perfect bill, but it is an excellent bipartisan compromise. The bill provides health coverage for 3.9 million children who are eligible, yet remain uninsured. It meets the concerns expressed in the President’s veto message [from HR976]:

It terminates the coverage of childless adults.

It targets bonus payments only to States that increase enrollments of the poorest uninsured children, and it prohibits States from covering families with incomes above $51,000.

It contains adequate enforcement to ensure that only US citizens are covered.

Reference: Children’s Health Insurance Program Reauthorization Act; Bill H.R. 3963 ; vote number 2007-1009 on Oct 25, 2007

http://www.massscorecard.org/H…

Of course, this bill was passed by more compassionate members of Congress, but vetoed by the biggest corporate profiteer of them all, President Bush:

Veto message from President Bush:

Like its predecessor, HR976, this bill does not put poor children first and it moves our country’s health care system in the wrong direction. Ultimately, our goal should be to move children who have no health insurance to private coverage–not to move children who already have private health insurance to government coverage. As a result, I cannot sign this legislation.

Reference: Children’s Health Insurance Program Reauthorization Act; Bill H.R. 3963 ; vote number 2007-1009 on Oct 25, 2007

http://www.massscorecard.org/H…

Yes, it would be a shame if uncovered children recieved coverage without huge profits for the Insurance companies. From those who are always lecturing us about our “Christian values” it would be a shame if they valued children as much as Christ did. From Mark 10: 13-16:

13 ¶ Then were there brought unto him little children, that he should put his hands on them, and pray: and the disciples rebuked them.

14  But Jesus said, Suffer little children, and forbid them not, to come unto me: for of such is the kingdom of heaven.

15  And he laid his hands on them, and departed thence.

Yes, Christian values dictate that the children be brought to be healed, but Exxon Eddie voted against Christian values on children not once, but twice:

Voted NO on Veto override: Extend SCHIP to cover 6M more kids.

OnTheIssues Explanation: This vote is a veto override of the SCHIP extension (State Children’s Health Insurance Program). The bill passed the House 265-142 on 10/25/07, and was vetoed by Pres. Bush on 12/12/07.

CONGRESSIONAL SUMMARY: This Act would enroll all 6 million uninsured children who are eligible, but not enrolled, for coverage under existing programs.

Even after changes were made to accomodate President Bush’s concerns:

The bill makes changes to accommodate the President’s stated concerns.

It terminates the coverage of childless adults in 1 year.

It prohibits States from covering children in families with incomes above $51,000.

It contains adequate enforcement to ensure that only US citizens are covered.

It encourages securing health insurance provided through private employer.

The result? Another victory for big insurance, and another defeat for true Christian values:

LEGISLATIVE OUTCOME:Veto override failed, 260-152 (2/3rds required)

Reference: SCHIP Extension; Bill Veto override on H.R.3963 ; vote number 08-HR3963 on Jan 23, 2008

http://www.massscorecard.org/H…

So, why would Exxon Eddie cast all these votes against the healthcare of even children if he is so Christian? Well, that is because the only god he worships is Mammon.

As seen here:

Health Professionals $99,601

Electric Utilities $39,266

Pharmaceuticals/Health Products $36,250

Railroads $29,300

TV/Movies/Music $22,750

http://www.opensecrets.org/pol…

And with the $215,000 in Insurance investments seen here:

http://www.opensecrets.org/pol…

So as you can see, Exxon Eddie is clearly lined up for profits, and against people.

Luckily, this time Exxon Eddie has a real challenge. Heather Ryan believes all Americans should have a fundamental right to healhcare, whether it brings insurance profits or not:

It is an absolute travesty that 50 million Americans struggle without health care in the wealthiest nation in the world.  What’s worse is when our representative votes against improvements in access to health services for children and the poor.  Unfortunately, these are both realities that we’ve experienced under the current leadership.  I propose that health care for every American is more important than tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy.  

It is time we had a representative who thinks about more than just how much money he can make when he helps pass legislation that benefits drug and insurance companies.  As the leaders of the free world, it is an embarrassment that we are the only industrialized nation that does not offer health care for our citizens.

http://www.ryanforkentucky.com…

In fact, near the end of my interview with her, Heather Ryan states that the first thing she wants to work on in Washington is the introduction of healtcare for all Americans:

New leadership will mean a new direction for Kentucky, and our country:

Please, go here to help us win this race. With the resources to get Whitfield’s terrible record out to the 63% of registered Democrats in this district, we can easily win this race, and alleviate Exxon Eddie’s complaints:

Please go here and support fellow grassroots Democrats in their quest to expand our Congressional majorities and move our country in the direction of progress for everyone:

The following is the latest in my line of Oregon politics blogs and comes at the suggestion of one of my readers.  Simply put, I will analyze the current cash situation for major non-federal candidates in Oregon (since I believe that the federal races have been well covered here).  

For reference, my latest thoughts on the elections are posted at: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/7/10/12954/7313/791/549408.

Cross-posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

Oregon Campaign Finance Laws:

Oregon has a unique campaign finance system.  This is because Oregon’s first amendment has been interpreted by the Oregon Supreme Court to give equal protection to commercial and individual free speech, meaning that contribution limits are unconstitutional.  However, Oregon does have stringent reporting requirements, which include requiring all contributions/expenditures to be reported to the state’s new online system ORESTAR (https://secure.sos.state.or.us/eim/jsp/CEMainPage.jsp) within a particular period after the contribution/expenditure is made (it gets shorter the closer we get to the election).

Note: All totals are as recent as possible and are rounded to the nearest thousand.  I only do reports for contested races, so, for example, since the AG’s race has no Republican candidate, I will not report on it.  I exclude the state party’s themselves because their state reporting is not a full picture of their financial status since their contributions are split between federal and state races.

State Party Legislative PACs:

Democrats:

Future PAC (Oregon House):

COH: $627k

Contributions: $572k

Expenditures: $254k

Biggest Contributor: Opportunity PAC (Governor Kulongoski’s PAC)-$25K.

Senate Democratic Leadership Fund (Oregon Senate):

COH: $275k

Contributions: $165k

Expenditures: $77k

Biggest Contributor: Kurt Schrader for State Senate-$20k.

Republicans:

Promote Oregon Leadership (Oregon House):

COH: $46k

Contributions: $298k

Expenditures: $381k

Biggest Contributor: Friends of Bruce Hanna-$20k.

Leadership Fund (Oregon Senate):

COH: $151k

Contributions: $265k

Expenditures: $196k

Biggest Contributor: Roger Beyer for State Senate-$20k.

Oregon Victory PAC (Oregon Legislature):

COH: $142k

Contributions: $195k

Expenditures: $220k

Biggest Contributor: Nancy Lamatta-$30k

Statewide Candidates:

Secretary of State (D Open):

Democratic Candidate: Kate Brown.

COH: $10k

Contributions: $390k

Expenditures: $529k

Biggest Contributor: Oregon Education Association-$50k.

Republican Candidate: Rick Dancer

COH: $70k

Contributions: $96k

Expenditures: $25k

Biggest Contributor: Seneca Jones Timber Company-$25k.

State Treasurer (D Open):

Democratic Candidate: Ben Westlund.

COH: $73k

Contributions: $191k

Expenditures: $127k

Biggest Contributor: Oregon Education Association-$30k.

Republican Candidate: Allen Alley.

COH: $35k

Contributions: $193k

Expenditures: $178k

Biggest Contributor: Salem Attorney Mark Stevens (in-kind)-$25k.

State Legislature:

Note: Only candidates in contested races are discussed.  Where no information is available that means that the candidate has currently raised and/or spent less than $2k since the May primary and so is not required to report.  This is not so important, however, because of the free and easy transfers available between candidate committees and because many expenditures come from the party and its committees anyways.

District 9 (Stayton) (Republican Interim Defending):

Interim: Fred Girod (R)

No information available.

Challenger: Bob McDonald.

No information available.

District 12 (McMinnville) (Republican Open)

Republican Candidate: Brian Boquist

COH: $26k

Contributions: $15k

Expenditures: Less than $1k

Biggest Contributor: Oregon Victory PAC (OR R’s)-$5k.

Democratic Candidate: Kevin Nortness

Nothing to report.

District 14 (West Slope) (D Interim Defending)

Interim: Mark Hass (D)

COH: $55k

Contributions: $62k

Expenditures: $31k

Biggest Contributor: IBEW-$3k.

Challenger: Lisa Michaels (R)

COH: $3k

Contributions: $3k

Expenditures: $1k

Biggest Contributor: Leadership Fund (OR R’s)-$2k.

District 27 (Bend) (D Open)

Democratic Candidate: Maren Lundgren

COH: $4k

Contributions: $5k

Expenditures: $1k

Biggest Contributor: Truman Club of Central Oregon-$1k.

Republican Candidate: Chris Telfer

COH: $14k

Contributions: $107k

Expenditures: $99k

Biggest Contributor: Oregon Victory PAC and the Leadership Fund-$10k each.

Oregon House:

Note: Districts 9 and 29 have at least temporarily dropped off the competitive races list because Republican challengers were disqualified for filing in a district that they did not actually live in.

District 6 (Medford) (R Defending)

Incumbent: Sal Esquivel (R)

No information available.

Challenger: Lynn Howe (D)

COH: $5k

Contributions: $9k

Expenditures: $4k

Biggest Contributor: Eric Swenson-$750.

District 7 (Roseburg) (R Defending)

Incumbent: Bruce Hanna (R), Hanna is the Republican leader in the OR House, so his numbers are higher.

COH: $74k

Contributions: $111k

Expenditures: $111k

Biggest Contributor: Oregon Forest Industries Council-$15k.

Challenger: Donald Nordin (D)

No information available.

District 15 (Albany) (R Defending)

Incumbent: Andy Olson (R)

COH: $115k

Contributions: $72k

Expenditures: $45k

Biggest Contributor: Oregon Forest Industries Council-$10k.

Challenger: Dick Olsen (D)

COH: $2k

Contributions: $3k

Expenditures: $1k

Biggest Contributor: Benton County Democratic Party-$1k.

District 17 (Scio) (R Interim Defending):

Interim: Sherrie Sprenger (R)

COH: $6k

Contributions: $51k

Expenditures: $45k

Biggest Contributor: Oregon Victory PAC-$10k.

Challenger: Dale Thackaberry (D)

No information available.

District 18 (R interim defending):

Interim: Vic Gilliam (R)

COH: $27k

Contributions: $65k

Expenditures: $64k

Biggest Contributor: Oregon Victory PAC-$20k.

Challenger: Jim Gilbert (D)

No information available.

District 19 (Salem) (R Defending)

Incumbent: Kevin Cameron (R)

COH: $37k

Contributions: $51k

Expenditures: $23k

Biggest Contributor: Oregon Forest Industries Council-$10k

Challenger: Hanten (HD) Day (D)

COH: $6k

Contributions: $13k

Expenditures: $6k

Biggest Contributor: Marion County Democrats (in-kind)-$5k.

District 20 (Independence/Monmouth) (R Defending)

Incumbent: Vicki Berger (R)

COH: $49k

Contributions: $46k

Expenditures: $32k

Biggest Contributor: Oregon Beverage PAC (in-kind)-$10k.

Challenger: Richard Riggs (D)

COH: $5k

Contributions: $30k

Expenditures: $26k

Biggest Contributor: Marion County Democrats (in-kind)-$6k.

District 22 (Woodburn) (D Defending)

Incumbent: Betty Komp (D)

No information available.

Challenger: Tom Chereck (R)

No information available.

District 23 (Dallas) (R Open)

Republican Candidate: Jim Thompson

COH: $15k

Contributions: $52k

Expenditures: $43k

Biggest Contributor: Oregon Victory PAC-$10k.

Democratic Candidate: Jason Brown

COH: $11k

Contributions: $14k

Expenditures: $6k

Biggest Contributor: Nancy and Gerald Brown-$5k.

District 24 (McMinnville) (R Open)

Republican Candidate: Jim Weidner

COH: $1k

Contributions: $52k

Expenditures: $54k

Biggest Contributor: Oregon Victory PAC-$10k

Democratic Candidate: Bernt Hansen

No information available.

District 26 (Wilsonville) (R Open)

Republican Candidate: Matt Wingard

COH: $34k

Contributions: $52k

Expenditures: $27k

Biggest Contributor: Oregon Victory PAC-$30k.

Democratic Candidate: Jessica Adamson

COH: $14k

Contributions: $60k

Expenditures: $56k

Biggest Contributor: AGC Committee for Action (Mainly Construction Companies)-$2.5k.

District 30 (Hillsboro) (D Defending)

Incumbent: David Edwards (D)

COH: $25k

Contributions: $26k

Expenditures: $22k

Biggest Contributor: Agency 76 LLC-$2.5k

Challenger: Andy Duyck (R)

No information available, he just came in to replace a Republican candidate who dropped out, so he would not have to report quite yet.

District 35 (Tigard) (D Defending)

Incumbent: Larry Galizio (D)

No information available.

Challenger: Tony Marino (R)

COH: Less than $1k

Contributions: $32k

Expenditures: $32k

Biggest Contributor: Promote Oregon Leadership PAC (in-kind)-$4k.

District 37 (West Linn) (R Defending)

Incumbent: Scott Bruun (R)

No information available.

Challenger: Michele Eberle (D)

No information available.

District 38 (Lake Oswego) (D Open)

Democratic Candidate: Chris Garrett

COH: $2k

Contributions: $118k

Expenditures: $132k

Biggest Contributor: FireFly Studios LLC (in-kind)-$7k.

Republican Candidate: Steve Griffith

No information available.

District 39 (Canby) (R Open)

Republican Candidate: Bill Kennemer

COH: $74k

Contributions: $112k

Expenditures: $59k

Biggest Contributor: Oregon Victory PAC-$20k.

Democratic Candidate: Toby Forsberg

COH: $17k

Contributions: $53k

Expenditures: $38k

Biggest Contributor: David Forsberg-$10k.

District 49 (Gresham) (R Open)

Republican Candidate: John Nelsen

COH: $22k

Contributions: $104k

Expenditures: $83k

Biggest Contributor: Oregon Victory PAC-$30k.

Democratic Candidate: Nick Kahl

COH: $8k

Contributions: $102k

Expenditures: $98k

Biggest Contributor: Oregon Trial Lawyers PAC-$5k.

District 50 (Fairview) (R Defending)

Incumbent: John Lim (R)

No information available.

Challenger: Greg Matthews (D)

COH: $38k

Contributions: $66k

Expenditures: $29k

Biggest Contributor: Various Firefighter PACs-$10k each, $40k total.

District 51 (Clackamas) (R Defending)

Incumbent: Linda Flores (R)

No information available.

Challenger: Brent Barton (D)

COH: $105k

Contributions: $84k

Expenditures: $44k

Biggest Contributor: William Barton and Oregon Trial Lawyers PAC-$10k each.

District 52 (Corbett) (R Open)

Republican Candidate: Matt Lindland (R)

No information available.

Democratic Candidate: Suzanne VanOrman (D)

No information available.

District 54 (Bend) (R Defending)

Incumbent: Chuck Burley (R)

COH: $27k

Contributions: $95k

Expenditures: $89k

Biggest Contributor: Friends of Bruce Hanna (in-kind)-$8k.

Challenger: Judy Stiegler (D)

COH: $18k

Contributions: $26k

Expenditures: $14k

Biggest Contributor: Truman Club of Central OR-$4.5k.

District 59 (The Dalles) (R Interim Defending)

Interim: John Huffman (R)

No information available.

Challenger: Mike Ahern (D)

COH: $10k

Contributions: $32k

Expenditures: $22k

Biggest Contributor: Jason Hale-$10k.

Let me know what you think.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/…

A Connelly internal poll has Connelly leading, however, I am more open to his internal polling because his internal had him crushing Byrne, and it came true.  

Gerry Connolly (D) – 52%

Keith Fimian (R) – 21%

Lake Research Partners.  400 People.  July 10-14.  MoE 4.4%

http://www.politico.com/blogs/…

Chabot Internal poll has Chabot up by 13 points in his race against Dreihaus

Steve Chabot (R-Inc.) – 50%

Steve Dreihaus (D) – 37%

Public Opinion Strategies.  400 likely voters.  June 30-July 2.  MoE 4.9%

Also interesting Information: DSCC has reserved 6 Million dollars in Ad time against Dole.  

http://www.politico.com/blogs/…

This latest in my continuing series of diaries on Oregon politics will discuss the current status of Oregon’s political landscape by using voter registration as a guide.  With this model, we can see clearly how strongly the Democratic party is positioned for this fall.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

Key:

Names listed are those of the party’s candidate holding the seat.

For Congressional districts, multiply the State Senate values by five.

Strong District: Oregon House Voter Reg. Difference 10k or more, Senate Voter Reg. 20k or more.

Likely District: Oregon House 5-10k Difference, Senate 10-20k Difference.

Lean District: Oregon House 3-5k Difference, Senate 6-9k Difference.

Tossup District: Oregon House less than 3k Difference, Senate less than 6k Difference.

*=Opposition party has registration edge of 1k or more.

x=Candidate is unopposed (by a major party candidate).

All values are rounded to the nearest thousand, source of data is: http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/may202008/p08stats.pdf.

My read on the state of the races is here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/7/10/12954/7313/791/549408.

Congressional Races:

District 1 (D): D+ 57k, Likely D.

District 2 (R): R+ 33k, Leans R.

District 3 (D): D+ 125k, Strong D.

District 4 (D): D+ 36k, Leans D.

District 5 (D): D+ 19k, Tossup.

Oregon Legislature:

Oregon Senate:

Current Composition: 18D, 11R, 1 I.

Seats NOT up for re-election this year:

Total: 14 (Due to a vacancy filler election in one district).

D-Held: 10.

R-Held; 4.

Summary:

Strong D: 3

Likely D: 2

Lean D: 3

Tossup D: 1.

Strong R: 0.

Likely R: 2.

Leans R: 3.

Tossup R: 2.

Uncontested Races:

D-Held: 5, 3 Strong, 2 Lean.

R-Held: 3, 1 Likely, 2 Lean.

Districts in which the opposition party has a voter registration edge:

D: 1, Westlund’s seat.

R: 0.

Up For Re-Election:

Strong Districts:

21 (SE Portland)-Rosenbaum (D)-x.

22 (Portland)-Carter (D)-x.

23 (NE Portland)-Dingfelder (D)-x.

Likely Districts:

2 (Central Point)-Atkinston (R).

17 (Beaverton)-Bonamicci (D)-2 year vacancy filler)

18 (Tigard/SW Portland)-Burdick (D).

28 (Klamath Falls)-Whitsett (R)-x.

Lean Districts:

1 (Roseburg)-Kruse (R).

5 (Lincoln City)-Verger (D)-x.

14 (West Slope)-Hass (D).

25 (Gresham)-Monnes Anderson (D)-x.

29 (Pendleton)-Nelson (R)-x.

30 (Ontario)-Ferriolli (R)-x.

Tossup Districts:

9 (Stayton)-Girod (R).

12 (McMinville)-Boquist (R).

27 (Bend)-Telfer (R)*-Pickup from Westlund (D).

Oregon House:

All the seats are up for election this year.

Current Composition: 31D, 29R.

Summary:

Strong D: 9.

Likely D: 10.

Leans D: 7.

Tossup D: 5.

Strong R: 0.

Likely R: 4.

Leans R: 5.

Tossup R: 20.

Uncontested Races:

D-Held: 19, 7 Strong, 6 Likely, 4 Lean, 2 Tossup.

R-Held: 6, 4 Likely, 1 Lean, 1 Tossup.

Districts in which the opposition party has a voter registration edge:

D-Held: 0.

R-Held: 6 (Berger, Nelsen, Lim, Flores, Lindland, Burley).

Strong Districts:

8 (Eugene)-Holvey (D)-x.

33 (Portland)-Greenlick (D)-x.

36 (Portland)-Nolan (D).

41 (Milwaukie)-Tomei (D).

42 (Portland)-Koppel-Bailey (D)-x.

43 (Portland)-Shields (D)-x.

44 (Portland)-Kotek (D)-x.

45 (Portland)-Dembrow (D)-x.

46 (Portland)-Cannon (D)-x.

Likely Districts:

4 (Central Point)-Richardson (R)-x.

5 (Ashland)-Buckley (D)-x.

10 (Newport)-Cowan (D)-x.

11 (Eugene)-Barnhart (D)-x.

12 (Springfield)-Beyer (D).

13 (Eugene)-Nathanson (D)-x.

16 (Corvallis)-Gelser (D).

27 (West Slope, my district!)-Read (D).

31 (Clatskanie)-Witt (D)-x.

38 (Lake Oswego)-Garrett (D).

47 (Portland)-J. Smith (D)-x.

55 (Medford)-Gilliam (R)-x.

56 (Klamath Falls)-Garrard (R)-x.

60 (Ontario)-Benz (R)-x.

Lean Districts:

2 (Myrtle Creek)-Freeman (R).

3 (Grants Pass)-Maurer (R).

6 (Medford)-Esquivel (R).

9 (Coos Bay)-Roblan (D).

14 (Eugene)-Edwards (D)-x.

28 (Beaverton)-Barker (D)-x.

34 (Beaverton)-Harker (D).

35 (Tigard)-Galizio (D).

40 (Oregon City)-Hunt (D)-x.

48 (Happy Valley)-Schaufler (D)-x.

53 (Sunriver)-Whisnant (R).

57 (Heppner)-G. Smith (R)-x.

Tossup Districts:

1 (Gold Beach)-Krieger (R).

7 (Roseburg)-Hanna (R).

15 (Albany)-Olson (R).

17 (Scio)-Sprenger (R).

18 (Silverton)-Gilliam (R).

19 (Salem)-Cameron (R).

20 (Independence/Monmouth)-Berger (R)*.

21 (Salem)-Clem (D)-x.

22 (Woodburn)-Komp (D).

23 (Dallas)-Thompson (R).

24 (McMinnville)-Wiedner (R).

25 (Keizer)-Thatcher (R)-x.

26 (Wilsonville)-Wingard (R).

29 (Hillsboro)-Riley (D).

30 (Hillsboro)-Edwards (D).

32 (Cannon Beach)-Boone (D)-x.

37 (West Linn)-Bruun (R).

39 (Canby)-Kennemer (R).

49 (Gresham)-Nelsen (R)*.

50 (Fairview)-Lim (R)*.

51 (Clackamas)-Flores (R)*.

52 (Corbett)-Lindland (R)*.

54 (Bend)-Burley (R)*.

58 (Pendleton)-Jenson (R).

59 (The Dalles)-Huffman (R).

Let me know what you think.

People can say what they want about Heather Ryan, and her campaign, Ryan for Kentucky. The fact of the matter is that this young lady is not only extremely smart, and compassionate, but courageous. She knows full well that the Republicans in this district will once again try to use social issues to divide us and defeat Progress in this country.

One of these issues that the Republicans use is Abortion. The mere dropping of the “A” bomb gets emotions and tempers on both sides of that issue boiling. Having worked for NARAL, trying to limit the number of unwanted pregnancies, hence abortions, Heather wanted to get out ahead of Exxon Eddie, and pre-empt the divisive campaigning that we know he will use. Please see Heather’s remarks here:

You know, a few months ago I volunteered to work for Heather Ryan, and it seems that everyday, she does something else that makes me so very proud of that decision. She has shown great courage in breaking with most of our Party’s leadership on FISA, and now in trying to explain with sanity her position on a very divisive issue.

I believe Heather is exactly right on this issue. The Republicans controlled our government for years before 2006 and none of them ever did one thing to try and outlaw abortion. Definately not Exxon Ed Whitfield. I believe a lot of the reason is that they wanted a wedge issue to constantly pull out of their “bag of tricks” to divide America and win elections. They did nothing for the right-wing activists that elected them on this issue, and still seek the moral high ground.

Heather is right. We can find common ground. Instead of arguing on the legality of abortion, why can’t we all work together to curtail the NEED for this controversial practice? Why can’t we invest in the education and healthcare of our own people, particularly our young to stop unwanted pregnancies and end much of the need for abortions? Why do the Republicans slash funding for programs that do just that if they are so “Pro-Life”?

Heather Ryan is just what we need in Washington. A Democratic leader that seeks to unite our country on even the most controversial issues, and find real solutions to our problems, not talking points to attack the other side with. Heather represents a new generation of leadership, my generation stepping to the plate to do their civic duty in the governing of our country, and quite frankly I am proud of what I see.

Please help us in electing a great grassroots Democrat with the intelligence, drive, and most of all GUTS to lead and fight for us on all issues!! You can do so here:

 

State Senator Andrew Rice raised 451k for the 2nd quarter, and now has an impressive (for Oklahoma) 748k COH.

He has raised $1.4 Million for the overall campaign.

Info. from here:

http://andrewforoklahoma.com/n…

Inhofe will be in a dogfight once Rice goes on TV.

website:

http://andrewforoklahoma.com/

In order so that those of you who have been reading my Oregon politics diaries can understand who these people are I have been talking about, I present the following entry.  For brevity’s sake, only statewide and congressional candidates will be discussed.

For your information, my last Oregon elections preview is here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/7/10/12954/7313/791/549408.

Cross posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/showDiary.do?diaryId=1234

Statewide Offices:

US Senate (R Defending)

Incumbent: Gordon Smith

Party: Republican.

Birthdate: 05/25/1952

Hometown: Pendleton.

Experience in Current Job: 12 Years.

Previous Government Experience: Oregon State Senator 1993-1997

President, Oregon State Senate 1995-1997.

Key Interest Group Ratings:

NARAL-40%.

ACLU-57%.

Gun Owners of America-0% last year, 100% the year before that.

AFL-CIO-44%.

Did You Know: Gordon Smith’s brother Milan Dale Smith, Jr. is a federal judge, appointed by Dubya in 2006 to the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals.

Challenger: Jeff Merkley

Party: Democratic

Birthdate: 10/24/1956

Hometown: Portland.

Experience in Current Job (If an elected official): 10 Years.

Previous Government Experience: Speaker of the House, Oregon State House of Representatives, present

Representative, Oregon State House of Representatives, 1998-present.

Democratic Leader, Oregon State House of Representatives.

Key Interest Group Ratings:

NARAL-100%.

ACLU-75%.

NRA-F, every year they have rated him.

AFL-CIO-94%.

Did You Know: Among his previous work, Merkley was head of Portland Habitat for Humanity, where he successfully helped expand the program’s reach and success.

Congressional Races:

District 1 (D Defending):

Incumbent: David Wu

Party: Democratic

Birthdate: 04/08/1955

Hometown: Portland

Experience in Current Job: 10 Years

Previous Government Experience: Commissioner, Oregon Planning Commission.

Key Interest Group Ratings:

NARAL-100%.

ACLU-100%.

NRA-F.

AFL-CIO-96%.

Did You Know: David Wu was the first-ever Taiwanese-American representative.

Challenger: Joel Haugen

Party: Republican

Birthdate: 11/19/1949

Hometown: Scapoose

Experience in Current Job: N/A

Previous Government Experience: Scappoose Park and Recreation Commissioner, Scappoose Park and Recreation Commission, 2002-2004.

Key Interest Group Ratings: N/A

Did You Know: He cites as his political inspiration a Minnesota legislator by the name of John McKee.

District 2 (R Defending)

Incumbent: Greg Walden

Party: Republican

Birthdate: 01/10/1957

Hometown: Hood River

Experience in Current Job: 10 Years.

Previous Government Experience:

Senator, Oregon State Senate, 1995-1997

Representative, Oregon State House of Representatives, 1988-1995

Majority Leader, Oregon State House of Representatives, 1991-1993

Key Interest Group Ratings:

NARAL-100% last year, 35% the year before.

ACLU-17%.

NRA-A.

AFL-CIO-42%.

Did You Know: Until recently Walden owned Columbia Gorge Broadcasting, which ran five radio stations in the Columbia Gorge area.

Challenger: Noah Lemas

Party: Democratic

Birthdate: 02/16/1970

Hometown: Bend

Experience in Current Job: N/A.

Previous Government Experience: N/A.

Key Interest Group Ratings: N/A.

Did You Know: Noah has been a successful entrepreneur in the snowboard industry, building and then selling off two companies (Sunriver Snowboards and Side Effect Board Shop).

District 3 (D Defending)

Incumbent: Earl Blumenauer

Party: Democratic

Birthdate: 08/16/1949

Hometown: Portland

Experience in Current Job: 12 Years.

Previous Government Experience:

Commissioner of Public Works, Portland City Council, 1986-1996

Commissioner, Multnomah County Commission, 1978-1986

Representative, Oregon State House, 1973-1978.

Key Interest Group Ratings:

NARAL-100%.

ACLU-100%.

NRA-F.

AFL-CIO-96%.

Did You Know: Earl got his start in elected office in the 1970s as a proponent of the Right to Die, Right to Vote Constitutional amendment, which lowered the voting age to 18.

Challenger: Delia Lopez

Party: Republican

Birthdate: 02/14/1963

Hometown: Oakland (OR)

Experience in Current Job: N/A

Previous Government Experience: N/A

Key Interest Group Ratings: N/A

Did You Know: Is running in Earl’s district despite the fact that she lives in the fourth district, in which Peter DeFazio (D) is unopposed.

District 4 (D Unopposed)

Incumbent: Peter DeFazio

Party: Democratic

Birthdate: 05/27/1947

Hometown: Springfield

Experience in Current Job: 22 Years.

Previous Government Experience: Chair, Lane County Commission, 1982-1986.

Key Interest Group Ratings:

NARAL-100%.

ACLU-100%.

NRA-B.

AFL-CIO-96%.

Did You Know: In his prior life before becoming an elected official, DeFazio was a gerontologist (someone who studies the social, psychological and biological aspects of aging).

District 5 (D Open)

Democrat: Kurt Schrader

Birthdate: N/A.

Hometown: Canby.

Experience in Current Job: 6 Years.

Previous Government Experience: Senator, Oregon State Senate, 2002-present

Representative, Oregon State House of Representatives, 1996-2002

Former Chair, Canby, Oregon Planning Commission.

Key Interest Group Ratings:

NARAL-100%.

ACLU-67%.

NRA-B-.

AFL-CIO-89%.

Did You Know: Kurt has been both an organic farmer and a veterinarian.  His wife is currently chair of the Clackamas County Board of Commissioners.

Republican: Mike Erickson

Birthdate: N/A

Hometown: Salem

Experience in Current Job: N/A

Previous Government Experience: N/A

Key Interest Group Ratings: N/A

Did You Know: Erickson was the placekicker and punter for Portland State’s football team and still holds the school record for career field goals made with 32.

Statewide Offices:

Attorney General (D Unopposed)

Democrat: John Kroger

Birthdate: N/A

Hometown: Portland

Experience in Current Job: N/A

Previous Government Experience: Deputy Policy Director of Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential campaign, legislative assistant to U. S. Representative Tom Foley (D-WA) and U. S. Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY).

Key Interest Group Ratings: N/A.

Did You Know: Kroger was a well-respected prosecutor, having won cases against defendants ranging from Mafia kingpins to Enron executives before moving to Portland to become a professor at the Lewis and Clark Law School.

Secretary of State (D Open)

Democrat: Kate Brown

Birthdate: 06/21/1960

Hometown: Portland

Experience in Current Job: 12 Years.

Previous Government Experience: Senator, Oregon State Senate, 1996-present

Representative, Oregon State House of Representatives, 1991-1996.

Key Interest Group Ratings:

NARAL-100%.

ACLU-56%.

NRA-F.

AFL-CIO-89%.

Did You Know: Kate Brown was born in Torrejon de Ardoth, Spain and grew up in Minnesota.  Before running for elective office, she was an attorney, practicing Family and Juvenile law.

Republican: Rick Dancer

Birthdate: N/A

Hometown: Eugene

Experience in Current Job: N/A

Previous Government Experience: N/A

Key Interest Group Ratings: N/A

Did You Know: Dancer’s last job was an the anchor for Eugene’s ABC affiliate, KEZI.

State Treasurer (D Open)

Democrat: Ben Westlund

Birthdate: 09/03/1949

Hometown: Bend

Experience in Current Job: 6 Years.

Previous Government Experience:

Senator, Oregon State Senate, 2002-present

Representative, Oregon State House, 1997-2002.

Key Interest Group Ratings:

NARAL-100%.

ACLU-50%.

NRA-A+ (While still a Republican)

AFL-CIO-100%.

Did You Know: In response to a number of his positions, not least of which was his fight for GLBT rights and universal health care, opposed by the Republican Party, Westlund switched from Republican to Independent in 2006 and then from Independent to Democrat last year.

Republican: Allen Alley

Birthdate: N/A.

Hometown: Lake Oswego

Experience in Current Job: N/A

Previous Government Experience: Former Deputy Chief of Staff to Governor Kulongoski (D) for about a year.

Key Interest Group Ratings: N/A.

Did You Know: Alley was the co-founder and former CEO of Pixelworks, a “Semiconductor company which designs, develops and markets highly integrated system-on-a-chip solutions for broadband communications.”

Let me know what you think.

The following is my latest read on this fall’s Oregon elections.  This update is prompted by the release of some new registration data that goes down to the state legislative district level, thus allowing me to more correctly analyze the races.  This update includes all candidate races at the state legislative level and up (excluding local races) but does not include ballot measures.

For information, see my previous OR politics diaries:

Oregon Ballot Measures: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6/25/113448/828/338/541717

Oregon’s Vote By Mail System FAQ (Written for the primary): http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/19/124239/061/359/518313.

My first post-primary update: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6/16/121742/983/269/536725.

Crossposted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/showDiary.do?diaryId=1227

Data Sources:

Registration data comes from this document: http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/may202008/p08stats_web.pdf or here: http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/may202008/p08stats.pdf

Primary Election Results are here: http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/may202008/p08results.html

The Statewide Layout:

Total Registered Voters: About 2 Million.

Democrats: 42% (+200k vs. Republicans)

Republicans: 33%.

Nonpartisan/Others: 25%.

Key:

Size of Districts:

State House: Aprox. 55k.

State Senate: Aprox. 110k.

The incumbent is always listed first, or failing that, the incumbent party.

Ratings:

Tossup-Margin less than 3%.

Lean-3-10% margin.

Likely-11-20% margin.

Safe-More than 20% margin.

Inc=Incumbent, Int=Interim Incumbent (Someone appointed to fill a seat until the next election due typically to resignation of the previous holder.  State law allows the party which held the seat to essentially appoint the replacement.  For example, when my State Senator resigned to take a job as the leader of a moderate Business Lobbying group, as a Precinct Committee Person I was entitled to vote for his replacement, which was then ratified by the County Commission).

Statewide Races:

US President

Candidates: Sen. John McCain (R) vs. Sen. Barack Obama (D).

Summary: The fact that McCain isn’t even trying to contest Oregon says a lot.  It would be a reach for him at best.  Obama, on the other hand, sent a bunch of the Obama fellows here a few weeks ago and is ramping up for the fall.

Rating: Leans to Likely Obama.

US Senate

Candidates: Sen. Gordon Smith (R-inc) vs. Speaker of the OR House Jeff Merkley (D).

Summary: This continues to be a bit of an uphill battle for Merkley.  However, Gordon’s Smith strange tack to the left, which has been widely discussed here and elsewhere, makes one wonder how this race is really shaping up.  Smith’s biggest advantage is still his $ lead but that is diminishing.  

Rating: Leans Smith.

Secretary of State

Candidates: State Senate Majority Leader Kate Brown (D) vs. Eugene TV Reporter Rick Dancer (R).

Summary: Kate Brown is going to absolutely kick the crap out of Dancer.  Dancer isn’t even that good of a candidate.  On an early appearance on Lars Larson’s talk radio program (he’s a well known conservative for those who don’t know), he seemed unaware of much of what the SOS actually does.

Rating: Likely to Safe Brown.

Attorney General

John Kroger (D) is unopposed.

State Treasurer

Candidates: State Senator Ben Westlund (D) vs. former Kulongoski staffer Allan Alley (R).

Summary: It is always so fan to see the Republicans go after Westlund, who used to be one of them until he saw the light.  Ben has the support of those on both sides of the aisle and should cruise to an easy victory here.

Rating: Likely to Safe Westlund.

Labor Commissioner (Technically a nonpartisan race, 2 year vacancy filling election)

Candidates: Former State Senator Brad Avakian (D-inc.) vs. Founder, Instructor/Provider of a physical and mental fitness program Pavel Goberman (D).

Summary: Avakian should have little trouble, given his status as a well known figure in state politics.

Rating: Safe Avakian.

Congressional Races:

District 1: Wu (D-inc) will cruise.

District 2: Walden (R-inc) will have little trouble.  If the margin is under 10% that’s a victory for the Ds.

District 3: Blumenauer (D-inc) is well-loved in this district and for good reason.

District 4: DeFazio (D-inc) is unopposed.

District 5

Candidates: State Senator Kurt Schrader (D) vs. Businessman and 2006 R Nominee Mike Erickson (R).

Registration Info: 161k Ds, 142k Rs, 98k NP/Others.

Summary: Time was this was considered one of the most contentious house races in the country.  Then two things happened.  First, the Obama registration boost changed this district from one with a very slight D edge to a somewhat substantial one.  Second, Kevin Mannix, who lost the R primary to Erickson, accused Erickson, who had claimed he was pro-life, of paying for a former girlfriend’s abortion.  This assertion was proven to be at least somewhat true and the resulting turmoil, along with some other recent discoveries has knocked Erickson well behind the pace.  Still, he can self-finance to a significant enough extent that this race is not out of reach for him.

Rating: Leans Schrader.  

Oregon Legislature:

Current Composition: 18D, 11R, 1 I.

Projected Composition: 18D, 12R (1 I to D and one D to R).

Safe Races:

1 (Roseburg)-Kruse (R).

2 (Central Point)-Atkinston (R).

5 (Lincoln City)-Verger (D).

18 (Tigard/SW Portland)-Burdick (D).

21 (SE Portland)-Rosenbaum (D).

22 (Portland)-Carter (D).

23 (NE Portland)-Dingfelder (D), this is technically a net pickup of 1, as Avel Gordly is an I.

25 (Gresham)-Monnes Anderson (D).

28 (Klamath Falls)-Whitsett (R).

29 (Pendleton)-Nelson (R).

30 (Ontario)-Ferriolli (R).

The following districts are competitive, or at least potentially competitive.

9 (Stayton)

Candidates: Fred Girod (R-int) vs. Bob McDonald (D).

Registration: R+4.5k.

Summary: The fact that this race is even competitive ought to really scare the Rs.  Girod still has the edge though.

Outlook: Leans to Likely Girod.

12 (McMinnville)

Candidates: Brian Boquist (R) vs. Kevin Nortness (D).

Registration: R+2.5k

Summary: The Rs had to scramble to get Boquist to run for this fairly safe seat.  This district is certainly changing but I don’t know if it is changing fast enough or if Nortness is a good enough candidate to replace the well-known Boquist.

Outlook: Leans to Likely Boquist.

14 (West Slope/Beaverton-My district!)

Candidates: Mark Hass (D-int) vs. Lisa Michaels (R).

Registration: D+10k.

Summary: In 2000 this seat was the site of the most expensive legislative campaign in OR history to that point as Ryan Deckert (D) unseated Eileen Qutub (R).  My how things change as the popular Hass looks ready to cruise here.

Outlook: Likely Hass.

27 (Bend)

Candidates: Marien Lundgren (D) vs. Chris Telfer (R).

Registration: R+3.5k

Summary: This is Ben Westlund’s seat and it would be a huge accomplishment to hold it (he won it twice running as a Republican).  That being said, I think its far more possible that a hold could occur now given the blue trend of Deschutes County, the center of this district.

Outlook: Leans Telfer.

Oregon House:

Current Composition: 31 D, 29 R.

Projected Composition: 32 D, 21 R, 7 Tossups (all Rs) and it could be a lot worse for the Rs.

The following seats are rated either safe or likely:

1 (Gold Beach)-Krieger (R).

2 (Myrtle Creek)-Freeman (R).

3 (Grants Pass)-Maurer (R).

4 (Central Point)-Richardson (R).

5 (Ashland)-Buckley (D).

8 (Eugene)-Holvey (D).

10 (Newport)-Cowan (D)-She won this seat by all of 750 votes two years ago and the Rs couldn’t find an opponent for her.

11 (Eugene)-Barnhart (D).

12 (Springfield)-Beyer (D).

13 (Eugene)-Nathanson (D).

14 (Eugene)-Edwards (D).

16 (Corvallis)-Gelser (D).

21 (Salem)-Clem (D).

25 (Keizer)-Thatcher (R).

27 (West Slope, my district!)-Read (D).

28 (Beaverton)-Barker (D).

31 (Clatskanie)-Witt (D).

32 (Cannon Beach)-Boone (D).

33 (Portland)-Greenlick (D).

34 (Beaverton)-Harker (D).

36 (Portland)-Nolan (D).

40 (Oregon City)-Hunt (D).

41 (Milwaukie)-Tomei (D).

42 (Portland)-Koppel-Bailey (D).

43 (Portland)-Shields (D).

44 (Portland)-Kotek (D).

45 (Portland)-Dembrow (D).

46 (Portland)-Cannon (D).

47 (Portland)-J. Smith (D).

48 (Happy Valley)-Schaufler (D).

53 (Sunriver)-Whisnant (R).

55 (Medford)-Gilliam (R).

56 (Klamath Falls)-Garrard (R).

57 (Heppner)-G. Smith (R).

58 (Pendleton)-Jenson (R).

60 (Ontario)-Benz (R).

The following seats are competitive:

6 (Medford)

Candidates: Sal Esquivel (R-inc.) vs. Lynn Howe (D).

Registration: R+3.5k

Summary: No one believed me two years ago when I said this seat would be competitive, and then Esquivel barely eked out a win.  My guess is that he won’t be caught napping this time, though.

Outlook: Leans Esquivel.

7 (Roseburg)

Candidates: Bruce Hanna (R-inc) vs. Donald Nordin (D).

Registration: R+1.6k

Summary: This would be my shocker of the year if an upset happened.  This district, which has been solidly red for decades, or so it seems, has seen a huge drop in the Republican registration edge.  Hanna is also not the greatest politician in the world to begin with but still has an edge here.

Outlook: Leans Hanna.

9 (Coos Bay)

Candidates: Arnie Roblan (D-inc.) vs. Al Pearn (R).

Registration: D+3k

Summary: This 2006 rematch should not be any different than the last one.  Roblan has a good read on this district and should win his easiest battle yet.  

Outlook: Leans Roblan.

15 (Albany)

Candidates: Andy Olson (R-inc.) vs. Dick Olsen (D).

Registration: D and R even

Summary: This district was not on anyone’s list but mine two years ago as potentially competitive.  Now with an even registration mix, a chance for an upset is there.  Olson, a former State Policeman, has the edge at this point though.

Outlook: Leans Olson.

17 (Scio)

Candidates: Sherrie Sprenger (R-int.) vs. Dale Thackaberry (D).

Registration: R+2k

Summary: Following a bloody and divisive R primary, Thackaberry has a real chance to pull an upset.  Add to that the fact that Sprenger has never won a general election here.  Still, this is definitely a district with an R tilt, so it’ll be an uphill battle.

Outlook: Leans Sprenger.

18 (Silverton)

Candidates: Vic Gilliam (R-int.) vs. Jim Gilbert (D).

Registration: R+2.5k

Summary: Jim Gilbert is back for another attempt at an upset here.  This is clearly his best chance yet but it won’t be easy.

Outlook: Leans Gilliam.

19 (Salem)

Candidates: Kevin Cameron (R-inc.) vs. Hanten (HD) Day (D).

Registration: R+1k

Summary: This is a district that should be more competitive than it has in the past.  With a lack of need to defend their own seats, this may become a statewide target, which makes an upset possible.

Outlook: Leans Cameron.

20 (Independence/Monmouth)

Candidates: Vicki Berger (R-inc.) vs. Richard Riggs (D).

Registration: D+1k

Summary: Berger is one of the last remaining liberal Republicans that Oregon used to develop like crazy.  She’s in for fight for her life this time due much more to both the state of the Republican party and the slight D registration edge though.

Outlook: Tossup.

22 (Woodburn)

Candidates: Betty Komp (D-inc.) vs. Tom Chereck (R).

Registration: D+2k.

Summary: I have to put this as competitive because its Woodburn.  However, Komp has really done a great job in this district and should win pretty easily.  Interestingly, this district has the lowest number of registered voters in the state, likely due to the large number of undocumented workers living here.

Outlook: Leans Komp.

23 (Dallas)

Candidates: Jim Thompson (R) vs. Jason Brown (D).

Registration: R+2k

Summary: This open seat battle could be one for the books.  That being said, I have to give the edge to Thompson for now because it is an R-leaning district.

Outlook: Leans Thompson.

24 (McMinnville)

Candidates: Jim Wiedner (R) vs. Bernt Hansen (D).

Registration: D and R even.

Summary: This was the seat that Kossack Sal Peralta almost won in 2006.  If Hansen can run a good campaign, a win is definitely possible here.  I’m moving this one to a tossup.

Outlook: Tossup.

26 (Wilsonville)

Candidates: Matt Wingard (R) vs. Jessica Adamson (D).

Registration: R+2k

Summary: Sometimes the opportunities just fall into your lap.  In this case, it turns out that Wingard has been arrested for hitting his children before.  However, this is still an R district so Wingard has a slight edge.

Outlook: Leans Wingard.

29 (Hillsboro)

Candidates: Chuck Riley (D-inc.) vs. TBD (R) and Terry Rilling (R turned I).

Registration: D+2k

Summary: Rilling’s decision to run as an I likely will give Riley an easy win.  Not that he wouldn’t have won anyways.  Add to that the ruling by the SOS that former R candidate Jeff Duyck doesn’t actually live in this district and is therefore ineligible to run for it and this race is close to sliding off the competitive race board.

Outlook: Leans Riley.

30 (Hillsboro)

Candidates: David Edwards (D-inc.) vs. Andy Duyck (R).

Registration: D+2k

Summary: The Republicans are all excited that Duyck is going to be their candidate here.  The well-known Washington County Commissioner is a solid candidate but this is not the Hillsboro that existed ten or even five years ago.  It has taken a solid blue turn and add to that the fact that Edwards is battle tested and he should win.

Outlook: Leans Edwards.

35 (Tigard)

Candidates: Larry Galizio (D-inc.) vs. Tony Marino (R).

Registration: D+3k

Summary: Tony Marino’s story keeps getting weirder and weirder.  First it was his criminal record, then it was the revelation that he was an online ordained Priest and now the information that he runs an online diploma mill.  Add to that the fact that this district, which Galizio won by a scant 850 votes four years ago, is no longer really a tossup district and Larry should win easily here.  This race may slide off the competitive races board by the next update.

Outlook: Leans Galizio.

37 (West Linn)

Candidates: Scott Bruun (R-inc.) vs. Michele Eberle (D).

Registration: D and R even.

Summary: Bruun is a well-known figure in this district; his family has run a construction business for over 100 years in the area.  Still, this year he will have to fight hard to keep this swing district, which now has even registration.

Outlook: Tossup.

38 (Lake Oswego)

Candidates: Chris Garrett (D) vs. Steve Griffith (R).

Registration: D+6k

Summary: If Griffith were a D, which he practically is in many ways, this district would be his.  However, he is not.  Add to that this district’s substantial D edge and the fact that Griffith will not likely get the $ he needs to be competitive and Garrett should cruise.

Outlook: Leans Garrett.

39 (Canby)

Candidates: Bill Kennemer (R) vs. Tony Forsberg (D).

Registration: D+.5k

Summary: Kossack Mike Caudle almost pulled off a major upset here in 2006 against the then R-leader Wayne Scott. As an open seat race, this one is too close to call.

Outlook: Tossup.

49 (Gresham)

Candidates: John Nelsen (R) vs. Nick Kahl (D).

Registration: D+4k

Summary: Two years ago about the only major disappointment I had was Minnis winning this district.  With her out of the picture, this should be a D pickup, especially with the substantial D edge in this district.

Outlook: Leans Kahl.

50 (Fairview)

Candidates: John Lim (R-inc.) vs. Greg Matthews (D).

Registration: D+2.5k

Summary: How Lim keeps winning here is a mystery.  He should be in for the fight of his life this year with this district clearly trending blue.

Outlook: Tossup.

51 (Clackamas)

Candidates: Linda Flores (R-inc.) vs. Brent Barton (D).

Registration: D+1k

Summary: How I would love to get rid of the racist Flores.  Barton has as good a chance as anyone, although it is definitely an uphill battle, despite the small D registration edge.

Outlook: Leans Flores.

52 (Corbett)

Candidates: Matt Lindland (R) vs. Suzanne VanOrman (D).

Registration: D+2k

Summary: In case you’re wondering, yes Matt Lindland is indeed otherwise known as UFC fighter Matt “The Law” Lindland.  This is a dead tossup district this year and should be fun to watch.

Outlook: Tossup.

54 (Bend)

Candidates: Chuck Burley (R-inc.) vs. Judy Stiegler (D).

Registration: D+1k

Summary: This district has been trending blue over the past several years.  This could well be the year Stiegler, who barely lost to Burley in an open seat race here four years ago, breaks through and wins it.

Outlook: Tossup.

59 (The Dalles)

Candidates: John Huffman (R-int.) vs. Mike Ahern (D).

Registration: R+1k97

Summary: This was the district that shocked everyone in 2006 as it was almost a D pickup.  However, I think Huffman will not be caught unaware as a result, though an upset is possible.

Outlook: Leans Huffman.

Well that’s it, let me know what you think.