Tag: 2008 Elections

It is an election year, and Exxon Ed Whitfield has been trying to clean up the stains on his terrible record of representing the First Congressional District of Kentucky. First, we had him bragging in our “impartial” newsrag, the Paducah Sun about voting for the G.I. Bill for the Twenty First Century, when acutally he had  voted against Veteran’s Benefits three times previous.

Yes, so many times Exxon Eddie has said this and that. Only to be caught asleep at the wheel:

When the time came to fight for them.

Case in point, Affordable prescription drugs for our seniors, and all that need them. I mean, just look at his warm and fuzzy little statement on his website:

While pharmaceuticals have helped millions of Americans live longer and better lives, the cost of modern medicines has skyrocketed in recent years. Many Americans are forced to take chances with their health, simply because they cannot afford the costs of modern medicines. This is unacceptable. Medicine should never be a luxury item. I am committed to working with my colleagues in Congress to drive down the prices of prescription drugs and make them affordable for the millions of Americans who currently take them. This includes our recent work to create a Medicare prescription drug benefit for our seniors, as well as efforts to bring down the costs of prescription drugs across the board, so that all Americans can enjoy the better quality of life that these medications bring.

http://www.ontheissues.org/Hou…

The truth of the matter is that his Pfizer Stock makes him cast votes like this on the Congressional Record:

Voted NO on requiring negotiated Rx prices for Medicare part D.

Would require negotiating with pharmaceutical manufacturers the prices that may be charged to prescription drug plan sponsors for covered Medicare part D drugs.

This legislation is an overdue step to improve part D drug benefits. The bipartisan bill is simple and straightforward. It removes the prohibition from negotiating discounts with pharmaceutical manufacturers, and requires the Secretary of Health & Human Services to negotiate. This legislation will deliver lower premiums to the seniors, lower prices at the pharmacy and savings for all taxpayers.

It is equally important to understand that this legislation does not do certain things. HR4 does not preclude private plans from getting additional discounts on medicines they offer seniors and people with disabilities. HR4 does not establish a national formulary. HR4 does not require price controls. HR4 does not hamstring research and development by pharmaceutical houses. HR4 does not require using the Department of Veterans Affairs’ price schedule.

Reference: Medicare Prescription Drug Price Negotiation Act; Bill HR 4 (“First 100 hours”) ; vote number 2007-023 on Jan 12, 2007

http://www.ontheissues.org/Hou…

You see, with men like Ed Whitfield, who have been in Washington far too long, it is all about the profits, and the addiction of the mighty greenback. No matter how much, it is never enough and taking money from anyone becomes a habit. EvenConvicted Terrorists. I am sure there are several organizations that could’ve used that $1000 in blood money. St. Jude’s Hospital and the Disabled American Veterans come immediatley to mind. The fact that Exxon Eddie kept this money I believe speaks a lot about his character. Character that considers theft and vandalism to be a “Christian Value”.

Luckily, we have Heather Ryan, an awesome “Fighting Democrat” opposing Exxon Eddie. She is a wife, mother, and proud veteran. She knows the problems everyday Americans face because she lives among us and faces them right along with us. She is not the least bit shy telling truth to power:

She fired everyone up at Fancy Farm too!!:

This is Heather’s first run for office, and quite frankly I couldn’t be more pleased to be supporting her in this race. She has definately evolved into a fine young Democratic candidate.

We need your help as grassroots Democrats. Heather is one of us and she needs our help!! She is working hard to earn it and if she gets the resources she needs, she WILL win this race. Exxon Eddie is scared, or he wouldn’t be sending people to steal and vandalize her signs.

With that in mind I started Americans for Ryan, and hope to reach $10,000 by election day. I am almost 40% there, so please, help make a real difference in a race that can make a real difference in next year’s Congress. Heather shares our values, and WILL fight for them!!

With the final signature verification complete. Oregon’s ballot measure slate is set for this year.  Below I review each ballot measure and discuss its chances of passing as well as its impact on the candidate elections this fall.

Cross-posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

Some Oregon Initiative Basics:

Although commonly thought only as an Initiative process, the actual truth is that there are four major types of ballot measures (of which the first two are by far the most common):

Legislative Referrals-Typically these are constitutional modifications but they can be statutory as well (See 2007’s Measure 49, which modified the state’s land use laws as an example).  Depending on the specific measure, they require either a simple majority or, in some cases, a 3/5 majority to get on the ballot.

Citizen Statutory Initiatives-Change or create state law.  They require 82,679 signatures.

Citizen Constitutional Initiatives-Change the Oregon Constitution.  They require 110,358 signatures.

Citizen Referrals-Refer a recently passed law, by the legislature, to the people for a vote, most recently seen in the failed attempts to get votes on the state’s new domestic partnership (civil unions) and GLBT civil rights laws.  They require 55,179 signatures, which must be turned in within 90 days after the law is signed by the Governor.

Ballot Measures are listed by ballot measure number.  Measure numbers are sequential and the first measure this year will be Measure 54.  This summary does not include any local ballot measures.

Key:

Measure Type:

C-Constitutional.

S-Statutory.

Race Ratings:

Tossup-Less than 3% margin projected.

Lean-3 to 10% margin.

Likely-11 to 20% margin.

Safe-Greater than 20% margin.

Note: Ratings assume the measure will qualify.

Progress-O-Meter:

How progressive is this initiative, on a 1-10 scale, with 1 being very much not progressive and 10 highly progressive.

Campaign Impact:

What impact will this initiative have on candidate elections this fall, 1 being low and 10 being high.

Legislative Referrals:

Measure 54 (C):

Summary: This corrects a bizarre flaw in the state constitution that prohibits citizens under 21 from voting in school board elections (a provision which is, of course, not in effect but should be removed anyways).

Known Opposition: None.

Progress-O-Meter: N/A, technical measure.

Campaign Impact: 1, no impact.

Outlook: Safe Yes.

Measure 55 (C):

Summary: Minor fixes to the state’s redistricting process.

Known Opposition: None.

Progress-O-Meter: N/A, technical measure.

Campaign Impact: 1, no impact.

Outlook: Safe Yes.

Measure 56 (S):

Summary: Partially repeals the Double Majority law requiring that 50% of registered voters cast ballots in an election for a bond measure to pass for May and November votes.

Known Opposition: Taxpayer Association of Oregon (Far Right), Bill Sizemore (Sponsor of all things extremely libertarian).

Progress-O-Meter: 10, gets rid of a really stupid law.

Campaign Impact: 3, this will get some play on the far right but I doubt it’ll have much of a real impact.

Outlook: Likely Yes, the legislature’s approval should allow this one to win pretty easily.

Measure 57 (S):

Summary: Proposes an alternative to Kevin Mannix’s (R-Of Course) property crime sentence minimum initiative.  Focuses state policy on treatment rather than prison for low level drug and property crimes.

Known Opposition: Kevin Mannix and his crew.

Progress-O-Meter: 7, its not a great law but its a damn sight better than Mannix’s proposal.

Campaign Impact: 7, this will probably, along with Mannix’s measure, be the main focus of many campaigns this fall.  It will have an impact for sure.

Outlook: Leans Yes, my guess is that with both on the ballot, Mannix’s extreme measure will fail when compared to this one.

Citizen Constitutional and Statutory Measures:

Measure 58 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore.

Summary: This measure would require English immersion rather than ESL for children for whom English is not their primary language.

Known Opposition: I would think a lot of progressive groups will mobilize against this one.

Progress-O-Meter: 2, progressives don’t like race-baiting measures like this one.

Campaign Impact: 4, this might get some wingnuts out to vote but I don’t think it’s much of a real issue.

Outlook: Leans to Likely No, I think the racist anti-immigrant folks will discover that they have limited political power after this one fails.  However, it is impossible to know exactly how this will turn out because this is the first immigration measure to make the ballot here.

Measure 59 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Summary: This is at least the third time that Sizemore and his gang have proposed this measure, which makes federal income taxes fully deductible on state returns.  This measure largely benefits high wage earners and would blow a huge hole in the state’s budget.

Known Opposition: A leading coalition of progressive groups will once again mobilize against this one.

Progress-O-Meter: 1, really really bad.

Campaign Impact: 3, yawn.  This ain’t new so this isn’t giong to swing many votes.

Outlook: Likely No, the good news is that although Sizemore can qualify measures, he can’t pass them.  This proposal has failed by increasingly wider margins every time it’s been proposed.

Measure 60 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Summary: This would require “merit-pay” for teachers in public schools.

Known Opposition: The Oregon Education Association will doubtless go all out against this measure.

Progress-O-Meter: 2, merit pay simply doesn’t work.

Campaign Impact: 5, the Repubs will definitely try to make this an issue this fall.

Outlook: Leans to Likely No, in 2000 a similar measure was rejected with 65% of the vote.  Given the more favorable political climate for education since then, this one will likely fail.

Measure 61 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Kevin Mannix

Summary: This is Kevin Mannix’s draconian sentencing measure for property and low-level drug crimes.

Known Opposition: Most of the Legislature for one (See Measure 57) as well as most of the moderate and progressive groups in the state.

Progress-O-Meter: 1, oh Kevin, your ideas suck so much.

Campaign Impact: 8, this is probably going to be the most closely contested ballot measure this fall except for perhaps the primary initiative.

Outlook: Leans No, with the competing measure by the legislature, this one may go down, which is good because withotu the competiting measure it would likely pass.

Measure 62 (C):

Chief Sponsor: Kevin Mannix.

Summary: Dedicates 15% of Oregon Lottery proceeds to crime fighting/prevention efforts.

Known Opposition: The current groups that receive lottery funds, schools and parks, have opposed this.

Progress-O-Meter: 4, not horrible but not great either.

Campaign Impact: 5, although closely contested I can’t imagine this one will get too much play either way in the campaigns this fall.

Outlook: Tossup, IMHO a bad idea but measures like this have fared pretty well in the past.

Measure 63 (S):

Chief Sponsor; Bill Sizemore

Summary: This measure would allow minor building changes without a permit.

Known Opposition: None but anything Sizemore proposes won’t stay without opposition for long.

Progress-O-Meter: 5, I honestly don’t know what Sizemore is up to here but I bet it’s no good.

Campaign Impact: 2, I don’t know what this is but it doesn’t look like it will have to much of an impact.

Outlook: Leans to Likely No, I don’t get this one but Sizemore’s name on the measure should be good enough to kill it.

Measure 64 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Summary: Sizemore brings back an old and twice-failed idea to ban public-employee unions from using dues for political purposes.

Known Opposition: The progressive movement in this state will mobilize to kill this one.

Progress-O-Meter: 1, strikes right at the heart of the progressive movement.

Campaign Impact: 8, In the current political climate, this measure will certainly get some play and will clearly have an impact.  We are already getting the misleading “Democrats hate the Secret Union Ballot” ads from some right-wing interest groups.

Outlook: Likely No, Sizemore=without power, Public Employee Unions=Powerful, enough said.

Measure 65 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Former SOS Phil Keisling (D)

Summary: Creates a Top-Two Open Primary in which all parties run their candidates on the same ballot and the top two, regardless of party affiliation, advance to the general election.

Known Opposition: Both the Oregon D’s and R’s oppose this strongly.

Progress-O-Meter: I’m not even going to try to rate this one because I know I will get slammed if I do but I personally oppose it.

Campaign Impact: 7, This will get a fair amount of play on the left for sure, but I don’t think this measure will break through to independent voters.

Outlook: Leans No, if this qualifies, the state parties will spend a lot of $ to kill it, so I’ll list it as leans no for now.

Let me know what you think.

On Saturday a fundraising solicitation arrived in the mail from Iowa Senator Tom Harkin. It asked me to confirm delivery of the enclosed “supporter card” within ten days, and also to “help keep my 2008 re-election campaign on the road to victory” with a special contribution.

Funny, I wasn’t aware that Harkin needed any extra help. Everyone in the election forecasting business has labeled this seat safe for him. The available polling shows Harkin with a comfortable lead.

According to Open Secrets, Harkin had $4.1 million cash on hand at the end of the second quarter. His little-known Republican opponent, Christopher Reed, has raised a total of $11,765 for his Senate campaign and had $292 (two hundred and ninety-two dollars) on hand as of June 30.

Harkin’s letter got me thinking that we need a “Use It Or Lose It” campaign for 2008.

In 2006, MyDD and MoveOn.org launched a “Use It Or Lose It” campaign to contact “ultra-safe Democratic House Representatives and ask them to help fully fund all of our competitive challengers this cycle.” The project spurred at least $2.3 million in additional major donations from House incumbents (click the link to read details).

A similar project targeted at safe incumbents in the House and Senate has the potential to raise even more money this year.

The Democratic House and Senate campaign committees have been crushing their Republican counterparts in fundraising. At the end of the second quarter, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee had about $46.2 million cash on hand, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had $54.7 million cash on hand. As of June 30, the DSCC had about twice the cash on hand as the National Republican Senatorial Committee, and the DCCC had six times the cash on hand as the National Republican Congressional Committee.

But we should be able to outspend the Republicans even more if our Democrats in safe seats donate more to the relevant committees.

Everyone agrees that the Democrats have an unusually large number of solid pickup opportunities. Here’s the Swing State Project list of competitive Senate races. All them are Republican-held but one (Louisiana), and that one is “lean Democratic.” Only one Democratic-held seat (New Jersey) is even on the “races to watch” list.

Look at the most recent Senate forecast by Chris Bowers. He’s projecting a pickup of six seats. He also lists ten “Democratic held, uncompetitive locks”:

Arkansas (Pryor), Delaware (Biden), Illinois (Durbin), Iowa (Harkin), Massachusetts (Kerry), Michigan (Levin), Montana (Baucus), Rhode Island (Reed), South Dakota (Johnson), West Virginia (Rockefeller)

I haven’t added up the cash on hand numbers for all those incumbents from the latest FEC filings, but it must total many millions of dollars.

In the past six weeks, the DSCC has sent out many fundraising e-mails touting “11 battleground states” (Alaska, Colorado, Kentucky, Maine, Minnesota, Mississippi, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon, and Virginia).

How many more Senate races could become more competitive if the DSCC were able to put significant resources behind our candidates? Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas and Georgia immediately come to mind.

The netroots are already working hard to promote Democratic challengers for Republican-held seats. Daily Kos has featured 10 House and four Senate candidates in its “Orange to Blue” ActBlue page. MyDD is raising money for five Senate candidates on its “Road to 60” ActBlue page. SenateGuru even went “on strike” until readers donated enough to three of eleven candidates on SenateGuru’s ActBlue page.

But it’s likely that Tom Harkin alone could donate more to the DSCC than all of the donors to all of those ActBlue pages combined.

Not only that, but safe Democratic incumbents sitting on huge war chests could do a lot for legislative candidates in their home states. A few thousand dollars can go very far in a statehouse race.

I don’t mean to pick on Harkin. (After all, he was the only senator to have the guts to vote against confirming Gen. David Petraeus as the new chief of U.S. Central Command last month.)

More to the point, I know Harkin is already helping other Democrats. He has reportedly donated to the Iowa Democratic Party’s GOTV efforts. Over the weekend he held a joint event with Becky Greenwald, the Democratic candidate in Iowa’s fourth Congressional district. He’s holding a fundraiser with Rob Hubler, candidate in Iowa’s fifth Congressional district, this Thursday. Earlier this summer, he gave $2,000 each to five Iowa House and five Iowa Senate candidates, plus an extra $5,000 to two candidates who received the most votes from constituents in Harkin’s “Building Blue” contest. I hear rumors that Harkin will hold fundraisers for other Democratic candidates in key Iowa statehouse races, or perhaps donate substantial amounts to the Iowa House and Senate Democratic leadership funds.

For all I know Harkin has already donated a substantial amount to the DSCC as well. I couldn’t find a list of Senate incumbents who have given to that fund.

But still–Harkin had more than $4.1 million in the bank at the end of June, which is more than 14,000 times the amount his Republican challenger had in the bank. Couldn’t Harkin dig a little deeper to help the DSCC get behind Scott Kleeb, Jim Slattery, Andrew Rice and other good Democrats?

While I’ve talked primarily about Senate races in this diary, of course a potential “Use It Or Lose It” 2008 campaign should also focus on some House incumbents. The DCCC has reserved ad time in 51 districts so far, and only 17 of those are Democratic-held. (Click here for the first wave of DCCC ad buys and here to see the 20 districts targeted in the second wave.) I take that to mean that the DCCC feels confident about holding more than 200 of our House seats.

There have to be at least 150 House Democrats who meet the “ultra safe” standard and should be putting more of their campaign funds into the DCCC pot.

Look at Swing State Project’s list of competitive House races. Four Republican-held seats are in the “lean Democrat” category, another 11 are “tossups”, another 17 are “lean Republican,” and at least two dozen more could become competitive with more money for Democratic challengers to spend. Meanwhile, no Democratic-held seats are in the “lean R” category, and only two are even rated tossups.

How many of those Lean R or Likely R races can we break open with more money for challengers to spend? How many races not even on Swing State Project’s list right now could become surprise wins for us, along the lines of NH-01 in 2006?

For instance, Swing State Project’s list does not currently include the two Republican-held seats in Iowa, but in my opinion both Becky Greenwald in IA-04 and Rob Hubler in IA-05 have a chance to win in a strong Democratic year. (I explain why here and here.)

I look forward to reading your thoughts and comments on a possible Use It Or Lose It campaign. Bob Brigham had some great suggestions earlier today at MyDD:

1. The earlier the better. Getting the money moving now helps a great deal with budgeting. Money spent just after Labor Day is worth far more than a last minute spree just before the election.

2. When it comes to lose it for senators, I wouldn’t just focus on those with a safe race this year, but those who left 2006 with big warchests.

3. I think after they pay up, they should be made a secondary ask to their supporters to get involved in local federal races. This is easy to do. Yet since most out of state money comes from blue, urban areas, this segment could be asked to Adopt-A-Race.

MyDD user Ramo already thought of a reasonable proposal for the senators:

If you’re Landrieu, Lautenburg, or Obama, we’re not asking for anything.  If you’re vulnerable in 2010 (Boxer, Salazar, Dorgan, Reid, and Feingold), we’re asking for 3% of your CoH.  If you’re vulnerable in 2012, we’re asking for 7% (McCaskill, Tester, Conrad, Menendez, Brown, and Webb).  Otherwise, 10%.

That would net us $9.693 million.

A lot has happened since we last ranked the Senate races in June, so I think it’s high time that we do another one of these. You know what to do: Rank the senate races (as far down the list as you wish to go) in order of their likelihood of flipping.

So with about three months to go, with Ted Stevens’ indictment dominating the Senate news, it’s time for another look at all the 2008 Senate races.  There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively.  Now obviously, quite a few of the races are considered “safe” for the incumbent.  So what are the competitive races?

I’ll rank these in terms of tiers.  The top tier will be the races where the party holding the seat has a real shot of switching (but I ain’t guaranteeing anything).  The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point.  Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play.  And the safe seats?  Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.

This is meant to be a primer for both newcomers and political junkies alike, so some of the information may seem repetitive for you junkies out there.  Also see my previous May diary to see what things have changed since my last update.

(Just so you know, I don’t do predictions.  Every time I do, horrible things happen.  So I won’t even make an actual prediction on the Virginia Senate race, because doing so would effectively jinx Mark Warner.)

FYI, whenever I refer to fundraising numbers in the races, I’m using the latest numbers we know of, from the end of June 2008.  “Q2” refers to the period of April to June 2008, the most recent quarter that we have the fundraising numbers for.  Major hat tip to Senate Guru for putting all the numbers in an easy to read table format.

Tier I

1. Virginia: Incredibly popular former Governor Mark Warner (D) is running for this seat that opened up when John Warner (R), no relation, announced his retirement.  Warner left the governorship with a whopping 80% approval rating.  That’s freaking unheard of.  He’ll face another former Governor, Jim Gilmore (R), who some of you may remember tried running for President last year.  Gilmore was known as the governor who helped drive the state into near-bankruptcy with his car tax cut, and Warner as the one who fixed the problem when he took over for Gilmore.  Not a single poll shows Gilmore getting even 40%.  Warner’s sitting on 20+ point leads.  And oh yeah, Warner also pulled in almost $3 million in Q2, while Gilmore raised less than $500K.  To top it off, Gilmore’s been burning through the little cash he got, and ended up with less than $117K left at the end of Q2, which was almost $5 million less than what Warner was sitting on.  This is about as lopsided as you’re gonna get, but still, no official predictions from me.

2. New Mexico: Rep. Tom Udall (D) announced for this seat shortly after Pete Domenici (R) announced his retirement.  Yes, he is part of the famed Udall political family; his father Stewart served as Interior Secretary under JFK, and his uncle Mo was an Arizona Congressman for 30 years who ran for President in 1976.  Stewart Udall was largely responsible for just about all the environmental laws that were passed in the 1960s.  Rep. Steve Pearce (R) won a bitter GOP primary over Heather Wilson, ending her career in Congress.  So the entire New Mexico U.S. House delegation was running for this Senate seat!  The polling just keeps getting better and better for Udall, as he’s hit the 60% mark in several polls now. I wrote back in May that I expected to see a sort of “unity bounce” once the GOP primary was decided.  Instead, the opposite happened, and Udall’s numbers went up even more.  Combine this with Udall having over 5 times as much cash on hand as Pearce, and Udall would be number 1 on the list if it weren’t for Mark Warner.

3. New Hampshire: John Sununu (R) is about to become 2008’s version of Rick Santorum.  Democrats could run a ham sandwich against him, and it would be a competitive race.  But why settle for a ham sandwich when you can run the former governor?  Jeanne Shaheen (D), who Sununu beat in 2002 along with some illegal phone-jamming on Election Day for which several GOP operatives went to prison, has led Sununu in every single poll taken in 2008.  The latest Rasmussen poll has her leading 50%-45%.  A general rule of thumb: any incumbent polling under 50% in an election poll is in trouble.  Add to that, the fact New Hampshire strongly went blue in 2006 all over the place, kicking out both Republican Congressmen and flipping over 80 seats in the state House, giving Democrats control of both state legislature for the first time since 1910, and Sununu has to be considered the most endangered incumbent.  The only thing keeping this race from being tied at number 2 is that while Shaheen outraised Sununu in the first two quarters this year, Sununu still has almost $3 million more cash on hand than Shaheen has.  That money will probably make this race closer, but given how much New Hampshire has changed, I’m not sure how much that money advantage is really going to help Sununu.

4. Alaska: 84-year-old Ted Stevens (R) is seeking a sixth term, but earlier this week, he was indicted on 7 felony counts for not disclosing the gifts (over $250,000 worth) he got from oil company Veco Corp.  This started when the FBI raided his home last June.  Several Veco executives have already pled guilty to bribing Ted’s son Ben, who was the former Alaska state senate president, with former Veco CEO Bill Allen having admitted some bribe money also went towards Ted Stevens.  Democrats got their top choice when Anchorage mayor Mark Begich entered the race.  His father Nick Begich was a former Congressman, who was killed in a plane crash along with House Majority Leader Hale Boggs (D-LA) in 1972.  Even before the indictment, several polls had already shown Begich leading Stevens.  In the wake of the indictments, Rasmussen now has Begich leading Stevens 50%-37%.  Jury selection will begin on September 24, and Stevens wants the trial to take place before the election.  What remains to be seen is if he’ll survive the August 26th primary, and even if he does, if the Alaska GOP would try to replace him with someone else.  But Rasmussen also showed that among some of the other GOP challengers, Begich leads them by even bigger margins, so it’s unclear if that will help the GOP out.  On the fundraising side, Begich pulled in over $1 million in Q2, over a quarter million more than Stevens brought in, though Stevens still has twice as much cash on hand as Begich, though that may not help him now.

5. Colorado: Wayne Allard (R) kept his pledge of only serving two terms, and is retiring from the Senate.  Rep. Mark Udall (D) is Mo Udall’s son, and Tom Udall’s cousin.  He’ll face off against former Congressman Bob Schaffer (R).  Colorado has been trending bluer recently, picking up a Senate seat in 2004 (Ken Salazar), and a congressional district and the governor’s office in 2006.  Schaffer had previously lost the GOP primary for that Senate seat back in 2004 to Pete Coors.  At the end of Q2, Udall was sitting on an almost $4 million warchest, with Schaffer over $1 million behind.  Schaffer also has close ties to Jack Abramoff and human rights abuses on the Marianas Islands, and was helping out Aspect Energy push an oil deal that would hurt U.S.-Iraq policy.  Recently, though, some right-wing front groups have been running TV and radio ads filled with falsehoods attacking Udall.  That may explain why Rasmussen shows the race getting narrower, though Udall still leads.  The other polls still show Udall with some kind of lead (other than Quinnipiac, though its crosstabs make it look like they undersampled Democrats), and not a single poll has come out with Schaffer holding any kind of lead.  Update: 9News in Colorado went through one of those attack ads and found every single statement the ad made was misleading, false, or conflating opinion with fact.

6. Oregon: Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D) won a close primary over lawyer/activist Steve Novick to take on Gordon Smith (R).  The two quickly joined forces in a unity event to take on Smith.  Smith seems worried, as his recent commercials have him embracing Barack Obama and John Kerry and fighting Bush!  Merkley raised over half a million more than Smith did in Q2, but much of that was spent on the primary, and now Smith has almost $4 million more in his campaign war chest at the end of Q2.  The DSCC has stepped in with an $850,000 cable TV ad buy starting in September to help out Merkley.  Also, the latest Rasmussen poll now shows Merkley with a lead for the first time ever in any poll, at 43%-41%.  In an interesting twist, Smith is actually a cousin of the two Udalls running for Senate.

7. Mississippi-B: Roger Wicker (R), appointed by governor Haley Barbour (R) on New Year’s Eve after Trent Lott (R) resigned to become a lobbyist, won’t have all the incumbency power Lott had accumulated over the years.  Wicker was the Congressman from MS-01, so he’s won elected office previously.  But that seat then went blue when Travis Childers (D) won it in May.  So things are changing even in Mississippi.  That has to be a shot in a arm for former Governor Ronnie Musgrove (D).  However, Wicker showed himself to be a prolific fundraiser, bringing in over $2.5 million in Q1.  But in Q2, the two were almost even in fundraising, each raising a little over $800K.  The latest polls still show this to be a tight race, with Wicker slightly up.  It may all come down to the African-American turnout in this state.  The 2004 exit polls showed they made up 34% of the electorate.  The Rasmussen poll showing Wicker up by 6 seems to also have a 34% black breakdown in their sample.  So if black turnout increases, that should benefit Musgrove.  And because this is technically a special election (to fill out the remainder of Lott’s term), there will be no party identification on the ballot in November.  That can actually work to our benefit in a state like Mississippi.  As a result, Wicker went up with a TV ad back in May introducing himself to voters.

8. Minnesota: Norm Coleman (R) won this seat in 2002 only after Paul Wellstone (D) died just a few weeks before the election.  Comedian Al Franken got the DFL (basically the Democratic Party for Minnesota) nod.  The polls had been steadily favoring Franken, until late April when a story came out that Franken owed $70,000 in back taxes to 17 different states.  Now, it turns out that as a traveling comedian, having visited lots of states, he was supposed to pay taxes to those individual states, but paid them instead all to the states he had homes in.  Then the GOP hammered Franken for a Playboy article he wrote over a decade ago, calling it “juicy porn“.  As for the fallout, there are very conflicting stories.  SurveyUSA has Coleman up by double-digits, while Rasmussen has Franken up by 3.  However, the SurveyUSA poll shows Coleman’s best support comes from young people, which doesn’t seem to make a lot of sense.  Combined with their presidential poll, which shows Obama TIED with McCain among young voters, and something doesn’t quite make sense in their numbers.  The Senate poll also shows the electorate will be made up of 32% Republicans, only 33% Democrats, and 21% Independents.  It strangely leaves out 14% of the population.  So take that poll with a huge grain of salt.  Plus, Franken did outraise Coleman for three straight quarters until Q2, when they both raised over $2.3 million, with Coleman getting $50,000 more, though Coleman ended Q2 with $3 million more in his coffers.

9. North Carolina: After Kay Hagan easily won her primary in May, the polls showed a primary bump, with some polls even putting her ahead of incumbent Elizabeth Dole (R).  That led Dole to fire her campaign manager.  Then her campaign asked the DSCC and NRSC not to spend money on the race.  Um, isn’t that’s the whole point of those campaign committees?  However, since the primary bump, Dole’s lead has gone back to about 10 points.  But something to note about those polls, they all seem to underestimate the black turnout.  In 2004, blacks made up 26% of the electorate, while these polls have a sample that’s 22% or less black.  Conventional wisdom says black turnout will be significantly higher than in 2004, so keep that in mind.  Hagan’s been keeping pace in fundraising, pulling in 91% as much as Dole did in Q2, though Hagan still trails by a little over a 2:1 margin in cash on hand.  Interesting fact, Hagan is the niece of the late Lawton Chiles, the longtime Senator and Governor of Florida, who came from behind to win re-election to the governorship in 1994 by defeating Jeb Bush.

10. Maine: Rep. Tom Allen (D) is running to challenge Susan Collins (R).  But even though Maine is a blue state, he has an uphill climb.  Collins has worked hard to craft her moderate credentials.  The most recent Rasmussen poll has some good news for Allen, with him only trailing Collins 49%-42%.  Allen’s fundraising was pretty strong in Q2, with both him and Collins netting a little over $1 million each, though he trails in cash on hand by $2 million.  The DSCC has now reserved $5 million for ad buys in the state.  And it will be needed, as the Maine newspapers suck at telling the truth about Collins.  I mean, really suck.  When they consistently let Maine GOP officials shill for Collins in letters to the editor without letting the readers know that fact, you know something’s up.

11. Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D) is the most endangered Democratic incumbent in 2008.  But how endangered that really is remains to be seen.  She was still able to win in 2002, a decidedly strong year for the GOP.  Karl Rove was able to woo state treasurer John Neely Kennedy (no relation to the Kennedy family in Massachusetts) to switch parties to run for re-election to State Treasurer as a Republican last August, and after winning, he announced he would challenge Landrieu for her Senate seat.  (Party switching actually seems rather common in Louisiana.)  As for how endangered Landrieu really is, well, there’s lots of conflicting data.  On the one hand, hundreds of thousands of residents from New Orleans and the surrounding areas never came back to the state after Hurricane Katrina, making the state more red than it used to be.  Bobby Jindal (R) didn’t even need a runoff to win the governor’s race last year, getting over 50% of the vote on the first ballot and performing stronger than expected.  On the other hand, Mary’s brother Mitch won the Lt. Governorship by an even bigger margin.  And the win by Don Cazayoux (D) in LA-06, a Republican district, may bode well for Landrieu.  Kennedy did outraise Landrieu in Q1, but she outraised him in Q2, and has almost $3 million more in cash on hand than he does.  All the non-Zogby polls show Landrieu ahead; the question is by how much.  A boost came to the Landrieu campaign when the Huffington Post obtained an NRSC memo from 2004 that attacked Kennedy when he ran for the Senate that year… as a Democrat.  After ripping him for being so wrong for Louisiana, they’re suddenly going to say he’s the right person for the job?

12. Texas: Democrats got the challenger they wanted to face John Cornyn (R).  State rep. and Texas National Guard Lt. Col. Rick Noriega (D) served in Afghanistan after 9/11, and was chosen to coordinate relief efforts in Houston after Hurricane Katrina.  The biggest news this summer so far is probably the Big Bad John ad Cornyn’s people released, which drew mockery and laughter from just about everywhere.  Then the Texas Medical Association rescinded their endorsement of Cornyn after he and other GOP Senators blocked the Medicare bill that would have prevented 10% cuts in Medicare payments to doctors, and the American Medical Association said they were going to run ads against Senators like Cornyn who voted against it.  But no polls have been taken of this race since June, when Rasmussen showed Noriega down by 13, though Cornyn was under the 50% mark.  However, the fundraising numbers are troubling, with Cornyn having outraised Noriega by more than a 4-to-1 margin in Q1.  Noriega did better in Q2, raising almost $1 million, but Cornyn finished Q2 with over 10 times as much cash on hand.  And in a huge state like Texas, money will most definitely matter.  Unless some polls come out showing this is a closer race, this will remain in Tier II.  Update: And right after writing this, Rasmussen shows Noriega down by 10 points, with Cornyn under the 50% mark.  So I’ve moved it back to Tier I status.

13. Kentucky: Even though Mitch McConnell (R) became the Senate Minority Leader, he is a top target of the Democrats.  And with former Governor Ernie Fletcher (R) losing his re-election bid to Steve Beshear (D) 59%-41% last November, that made Kentucky Democrats even more confident.  But then Kentucky Attorney General Greg Stumbo and State Auditor Crit Luallen both declined to run, and netroots favorite Lt. Col. Andrew Horne, a Marine who has served in both the Persian Gulf War and the Iraq War, dropped his bid.  Wealthy businessman Bruce Lunsford hasn’t exactly been a netroots favorite in the past, having ticked off a lot of Democrats in the past by endorsing Fletcher over Ben Chandler (D) for Governor back in 2003 after he lost the primary to Chandler.  But it looks like Kentucky Democrats quickly unified behind Lunsford and are all pledging to do their part to defeat McConnell.  McConnell has a HUGE warchest of over $9 million, but Lunsford can afford to self-fund.  And this quote from Lunsford after winning the primary is nice to read.  “[McConnell is] going to spend millions of dollars trying to destroy my reputation.  But I don’t care how many names he’s going to call me, because in January he’s going to call me ‘Senator.'”  Well played, sir.  Things like that will help assuage the netroots.  Two recent polls show Lunsford behind by about 10 points.  Lunsford actually brought in more money in Q2, largely due to loaning himself $2.5 million to keep pace, but McConnell still has almost 7 times as much cash on hand.  But by keeping pace, if Lunsford can force McConnell (and his campaign coffers) to stay in Kentucky instead of going to help other Senators, that will only serve to benefit the other Democrats running for Senate.

Tier II

I decided, for the sake of my own sanity, not to try to rank the Tier II and III races.  These are given in alphabetical order, by state.

Idaho: With Larry Craig (R) retiring after his airport bathroom… ah… incident, it’s looking like a rematch between Lt. Governor Jim Risch (R) and former Congressman Larry LaRocco (D), who lost the 2006 Lt. Gov. race to Risch by a sizable 58%-39% margin.  While LaRocco finished 2007 with more cash on hand than Risch, he was absolutely blitzkrieged in Q1, with Risch raising over 4 ½ times as much money as LaRocco raised, and again outraised in Q2, leaving Risch with over 4 times as much cash on hand as LaRocco.  A recent Research 2000 poll showed LaRocco down by 10 points, 42%-32%.  The wild card in this race may be independent rancher Rex Rammell, who despises Risch, and may be able to pull away some of Risch’s support.  Rammell actually outraised LaRocco, and has a little more cash on hand, and will spend that money attacking Risch.  There are also two other right-wing candidates on the ballot that will split the conservative vote even more.

Kansas: Pat Roberts (R), known for covering up issues related to intelligence and domestic spying for Bush, looked to be coasting to an easy re-election until former Congressman Jim Slattery entered the racein mid-March.  Given that late start, he still managed to raise over $250,000 in just the first two weeks, and brought in a decent haul in Q2 also.  Rasmussen had given encouraging news in June, showing Slattery within single digits, but in July, their poll showed Slattery down by 27 points.  There are signs, however, that Roberts is nervous, as his people lashed out, attacking Slattery for criticizing the Iraq War, considering he voted for going to war with Iraq.  Except… the war he voted for was the FIRST Gulf War in 1991.  So… voting for that war makes you unable to criticize this war?  Um, OK, that’s some great Republican logic for you.  And then, they attacked Slattery for missing a lot of votes in his last year in Congress.  Why only that year?  Because that was the year Slattery was back in Kansas running for Governor.

Oklahoma: James Inhofe (R) looks pretty safe, though interestingly enough, Inhofe has never gotten to 50% approval in the history of SurveyUSA’s polling.  State senator and netroots favorite Andrew Rice (D), who lost his brother in the 9/11 attacks, is now the formal Democratic nominee, having won his primary last week by a 20-point margin.  Rice and Inhofe could not be farther apart when it comes to energy and environmental issues.  Rice pulled in decent fundraising numbers in Q2, but still trails Inhofe by over $1.7 million.  A Research 2000 poll from June showed Rice down by 22 points.  Those two factors would normally make this a Tier III race, but then came the news that veteran political operatives Geri Prado and Phil Singer have joined Rice’s staff.  Those two both worked on Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign and for the DSCC.

Tier III

Alabama: The Democrats’ top hope in Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks announced he was not running, leaving little-known state senator Vivian Figures (D) as the only challenger to incumbent Jeff Sessions (R).  But, Jeff Sessions does play a role in the Don Siegelman case.  And it seems Sessions was desperate enough to try and kill the 60 Minutes piece about Siegelman before it aired.  So if Sessions gets ensnared in this scandal, his seat may not be so safe.  And the prospect of that, which grows dimmer by the day, is the only thing keeping this from going into the “safe” category.

Georgia: A crowded field of relatively unknown Democratic challengers to Saxby Chambliss (R) didn’t seem to go anywhere, until former state representative Jim Martin entered the race in March.  Martin was the 2006 Democratic Lt. Gov. nominee, so he’s run a statewide race before.  And in just 12 days, Martin raised $346,675, which dropped a lot of jaws.  Martin would first have to get by DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones, who is black and is depending on African-American turnout to win the primary runoff on August 5th.  Except… Jones voted for Bush… twice, still doesn’t know what to think about Iraq, and likes calling Democrats “losers”.  Way to, um, not endear yourself to the netroots.  The 3rd and 4th place finishers in the primary have already endorsed Martin in the runoff.  Remember, Chambliss ousted triple amputee Max Cleland (D) in 2002 by running a despicable ad blending the images of Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein into Cleland’s face.  If Martin bests Jones in the primary next Tuesday, I’ll move this up to Tier II, as polling shows Martin would at least be competitive, though he’d still be seriously behind in funds.

Nebraska: With Chuck Hagel (R) retiring, former governor Mike Johanns (R) quit his job as Bush’s Agriculture Secretary to run for this seat.  The netroots were thrilled when rancher and history professor Scott Kleeb (D) threw his hat in the ring.  While Kleeb lost the NE-03 House race in 2006, that district is the most Republican in Nebraska, and Kleeb got a higher-than-expected 45% of the vote.  That’s had a lot of people thinking he would actually win in the other two districts, and thus a statewide race.  Of course, that doesn’t take into account how he’d be running against the former governor of the state.  Kleeb easily won his primary against Republican-turned-Democrat Tony Raimondo, but the polls show Kleeb still has quite a ways to go.  The last two Rasmussen polls show Kleeb down by over 25 points to Johanns.  The one bright spot was that Kleeb outraised Johanns in Q2, though he still trails in cash on hand by almost $800K.

New Jersey: Frank Lautenberg (D) is running again, but as he is already 84 years old, his age is always going to be a concern.  His poll numbers also don’t look that good, but no New Jersey politician’s numbers ever look really good.  He easily beat back a primary challenge from Rep. Rob Andrews.  On the GOP side, it’s been a wild roller coaster ride as multiple candidates have been declaring, and then dropping out of the race, before they finally settled on former Congressman Dick Zimmer.  Blue Jersey has a wild recap of it all.

South Dakota: Tim Johnson (D) is fully back at work after suffering a brain hemorrhage in December 2006.  His illness had made Republicans hesitant to challenge or attack him.  And the polling shows Johnson may be the most popular Senator in the country, to boot.

Tennessee: Former Tennessee Democratic Party chair Bob Tuke entered the race in late February.  It remains to be seen if Tuke can make this a real race against Lamar Alexander (R), who was also a two-term governor of Tennessee and the Secretary of Education under George H.W. Bush.  Tuke has a little over a quarter million on hand, while Alexander has over three million.

Democratic safe seats

Arkansas (Mark Pryor)

Delaware (Joe Biden)

Illinois (Dick Durbin)

Iowa (Tom Harkin)

Massachusetts (John Kerry)

Michigan (Carl Levin)

Montana (Max Baucus)

Rhode Island (Jack Reed)

West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller)

Republican safe seats

Mississippi (Thad Cochran)

South Carolina (Lindsey Graham)*

Wyoming (Michael Enzi)

Wyoming (John Barrasso)

*South Carolina is now a safe seat, as Lindsey Graham easily won his primary in June, and Michael Cone ended up barely losing the Democratic primary by 0.6% to Bob Conley, a Republican-turned-Democrat who voted for Ron Paul in the South Carolina primary.

So there you have it, my personal rankings for the 2008 Senate races, as they stand at the beginning of August.  Things can still change, people who only pay attention after Labor Day may shake things up, and we won’t know exactly what the national mood will be 3 months from now.  Still, given that, these are my picks, and I’m sticking with them… until my next update, at least.

Feel free to rip me apart in the comments, telling me I don’t know what the hell I’m talking about, how could I possibly put a certain race in Tier II or III when it’s so obviously a top tier race, why I’m being too optimistic in some seat, etc.  Have at it.  🙂

cross-posted in slightly different form at Bleeding Heartland

Congressman Tom Latham is a conservative Republican representing a swing (D+0) district. He has a lot more money in the bank than Democratic candidate Becky Greenwald, but Iowa political observers think this race could be very competitive.

Today Latham opened up his war chest to start running statewide radio ads touting his advocacy of more oil drilling in the U.S.

Follow me after the jump for more.

Iowa Politics has this press release from Latham’s campaign about

a statewide radio ad highlighting Latham’s work to lower gas and energy prices for Iowa families.

The sixty second ad reinforces Latham’s continued commitment to renewable energy but also discusses the need for Congress to work immediately to increase domestic energy supplies that America controls.

“$4.00 a gallon gas hurts Iowa families,” notes Latham in the ad. “And they’re frustrated with leaders in Congress for not doing more about it – and they have every right to be.”

“I have always been, and will continue to be, a strong supporter of alternative energy research and production, but we need to work for solutions that get Iowans from point A to point B without busting their family budget.”

Latham has been working in Congress on legislation aimed at increasing our domestic supply of affordable that will lower gas and energy prices through the increased use of our current resources, to include off-shore drilling and drilling in ANWR.

Latham recently told Iowa Independent that Republicans can ride high gas prices to victory this November. It’s not clear to me why this is a big selling point for the GOP–shouldn’t they have been doing something to reduce our dependence on foreign oil during the years Republicans controlled Congress as well as the presidency?

Anyway, some Republicans clearly believe that this issue will save them from an otherwise hostile political environment. Last week John McCain started running a television ad blaming Barack Obama for high gas prices because Obama opposes more offshore oil drilling.

The rapid response from Becky Greenwald’s campaign points out the various misleading aspects of Latham’s radio ad:

For Immediate Release                                                                      Contact: Erin Seidler

July 29, 2008                                                                                                         515-537-4465

Latham Runs Misleading Ad on Drilling To Divert From Votes Against Immediate Gas Price Relief

Waukee, IA – This week, Tom Latham’s campaign released a radio ad misleading voters about offshore drilling. Experts agree that offshore drilling will do nothing to lower gas prices for seven to ten years, and its clear that this ad is a diversion from Latham’s votes against opening the Strategic Petroleum Reserves and forcing oil companies to drill on existing leases. (McClatchy, 6/18/08)

“I’m running for Congress because of these sort of shenanigans. Latham is trying to get Iowans to think about leasing 2,000 more acres when 68 million acres already leased are open, untapped and will lower prices. Latham is trying to divert attention from his failure to support immediate relief through opening the Strategic Petroleum Reserves and forcing oil companies to drill on existing leases,” said Becky Greenwald, Candidate for Congress in Iowa’s 4th District. “Is it too much to ask for leaders to be honest with us?”



Unfortunately, Latham, like George Bush decided to play politics with gas prices. Last week, he voted against a bill that would release 70 million barrels of oil from the strategic oil reserve to bring relief from high gas prices. This bill would bring almost immediate relief to high gas prices. (H. Res. 6578)

And two weeks ago, Latham voted against a bill to force oil companies to drill on existing leases. There are 68 million acres of federal land already leased by oil companies. That is two times the size of the state of Iowa available for energy production that is now sitting idle. (H.R. 615)

Instead, Democrats in Congress and Becky Greenwald are fighting for a comprehensive energy policy that includes in the short term, opening the Strategic Petroleum Reserves and forcing oil companies to drill on almost 68 million acres of existing leases.

In the long term, Becky will fight to invest in a green energy industry here in Iowa by investing in ethanol, wind energy, biodiesel, and other homegrown, alternative forms of energy.

“I know that investing in renewable fuels will reduce our reliance on foreign oil and bring down gas prices and create thousands if not hundreds of thousands of jobs in rural America, including Iowa’s 4th District,” Greenwald continued. “It’s time for a solution, not diversion tactics.”

The bolded passages were bold in the original, by the way.

Latham’s advocacy of more oil drilling will do nothing to solve our energy problems. Even the president of the Teamsters Union, which has long supported increased oil drilling in the U.S., declared last week that

“We must find a long-term approach that breaks our dependence on foreign oil by investing in the development of alternate energy sources like solar, wind and geothermal power.”

Furthermore, public opinion on this matter may not be where Latham thinks it is. The polling firm Rasmussen says the public is divided on whether more drilling is the answer:

A new Rasmussen Reports national survey, taken last night (Monday), finds that 45% think placing more restrictions on energy speculators is more important , while 42% take the opposite view that allowing offshore oil drilling is more important.

A major partisan divide on the issue, like the split in Congress, is evident, however. Sixty-seven percent (67%) of Republicans say lifting the ban is the highest priority, while 59% of Democrats – and 48% of unaffiliated voters — say controlling speculators is more important. Only 29% of unaffiliateds say lift the ban first.

Unaffiliated or “no-party” voters have a slim plurality among registered voters in Iowa’s fourth district, and there are about 8,000 more Democrats than Republicans in the district.

If Rasmussen’s findings are accurate, it seems that Latham is out of step with his district on this issue.

If you reject Latham’s misleading spin on energy policy, please donate to Greenwald’s campaign to help her respond on the air. She has a lot going for her in this race and a real chance to win if she raises enough money to get her message out. Remember, the fourth district has a partisan index of D+0.

Final note: Latham’s press release says the radio ad is running statewide. That’s a lot more expensive than just running the ad in fourth district markets.

Is he trying to raise his profile outside his district to pave the way for a gubernatorial bid in 2010? If he loses to Greenwald, he could start campaigning for governor immediately. But even if he wins re-election, serving in Congress isn’t much fun when you’re in the minority party.  

With the end of July nearing and the election now only 99 days away, I thought it was appropriate to publish a review of the last month’s action in Oregon politics.  In addition, I preview what lies ahead in August and give updates on previous race ratings or other information I have talked about in my earlier diaries.

Cross-posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

Stock Watch:

Who is up and down in Oregon politics this month:

Up: Jeff Merkley.  Fresh off his best fund-raising quarter ever, Merkley erased a 9% deficit to Gordon Smith during the past month, even though Smith was on the air and Merkley largely was not.

Down: Gordon Smith.  Already flailing about, Smith appears desperate to show that he is really a centrist, despite all the evidence to the contrary.  His recent decision not to attend the RNC Convention proves he knows that John McCain is an anchor on his campaign.

Up: Oregon Democrats.  As you will see below, the Oregon Democratic Party has seen rating upgrades in a number of races and has not lost ground anywhere.  With a strong group of candidates at all levels, this could be a banner year for the DPO.

Down: Oregon Republicans.  Down, with no money and with rapidly fading chances at all levels, Oregon Republicans are flailing out wildly.  With the demise of a number of their prized legislative recruits for a number of reasons (Jeff Duyck violating residency requirements, Tony Marino turning out to be crazy) and with a huge cash disadvantage to the Oregon Ds, they are in trouble.

Up: Bill Sizemore.  As much as it pains me to say this, Sizemore had a good month in July.  He qualified all his initiatives and although most, if not all, are unlikely to pass, he still thumbed our noses in it again.

Down: Bill Bradbury.  Long one of my favorite Oregon politicians, Bill Bradbury has fallen hard in the last month.  With the revelation that Bradbury did not investigate potential signature fraud by conservative groups (info here: http://www.blueoregon.com/2008/07/citizens-begin.html) I honestly won’t be too disappointed when Kate Brown replaces him in January.  One of his most visible jobs is to enforce the signature laws and he appears he may not have done so, according to our dear friends at Our Oregon and other wonderful liberal interest groups.

Upcoming Deadlines and Interesting Dates:

August 2-All signature verification must be completed (already done), and ballot measure numbers are assigned.  See below for more.

August 26-Voter’s Pamphlet Statements Due.  A rough version will be posted soon after.

August 29-Last day to withdraw/replace a candidate.  All candidates on the ballot at that point are considered the final candidates.  The only exception is if a candidate dies in a non-federal race, under the state constitution the SOS may elect to postpone the election for a short period of time if necessary.

August 30-The seven day rule for campaign finance reporting goes into effect, requiring all contributions and expenditures made from this date to election day be reported within 7 days.  Currently, candidates have 30 days to report.  Violations are subject to progressively harsher penalties.

Measure by Measure, a Ballot Measure Update:

Assuming that Our Oregon is not successful in its lawsuit over possibly fraudulent signatures on Sizemore’s initiatives, here are the current initiatives for this year’s ballot, numbers to be assigned early next week:

Key:

S-Statutory

C-Constitutional

Numbers listed are initiative petition numbers.  Ballot measure numbers this year will begin with #54 and go sequentially from there.  The four legislative referrals will be first, followed by all the qualified citizen initiatives.

Qualified:

Legislative Referrals:

405-C-Corrects a bizarre flaw in the state constitution that prohibits citizens under 21 from voting in school board elections (a provision which is, of course, not in effect but should be removed anyways).

406-C-Minor fixes to the state’s redistricting process.

407-C-Repeals the Double Majority law requiring that 50% of registered voters cast ballots in an election for a bond measure to pass.

408-S-Proposes an alternative to Kevin Mannix’s (R-Of Course) property crime sentence minimum initiative.  Focuses state policy on treatment rather than prison for low level drug and property crimes.

Citizen Constitutional and Statutory Measures:

3-S-Makes federal income taxes fully deductible on state returns.  This measure largely benefits high wage earners and would blow a huge hole in the state’s budget.

19-S-This measure would require English immersion rather than ESL for children for whom English is not their primary language.

20-S-This would require “merit-pay” for teachers in public schools.

21-S-This measure would allow minor building changes without a permit.

25-S-Sizemore brings back an old and twice-failed idea to ban public-employee unions from using dues for political purposes.

40-S-This is Kevin Mannix’s draconian sentencing measure for property and low-level drug crimes.

41-C-Dedicates 15% of Oregon Lottery proceeds to crime fighting/prevention efforts.

109-S-Creates a Top-Two Open Primary in which all parties run their candidates on the same ballot and the top two, regardless of party affiliation, advance to the general election.

Failed to Qualify:

51-S-Limits contingency fee awards in lawsuits.  Your classic “lawsuit reform” measure.

53-S-Establishes penalties for “frivolous lawsuits.”

Race Rating Changes:

From my last update, posted here on July 10: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/7/10/12954/7313/791/549408.

US Senate: Upgraded from Lean Smith to Tossup.  With the new polling showing Merkley with a small lead, up from 9% down last month, this race has clearly moved to tossup territory.  GAME ON!

Oregon Legislature:

Oregon Senate: OR-14 (West Slope, my home district!), Mark Hass (R), upgrade from Likely Hass to Safe Hass.  Time was this was a competitive district, not anymore.  When last this seat was up, the registration gap was 3k, now its 10k.  With Michaels not raising nearly enough cash to make this competitive, this race goes off the competitive races board.

Oregon House:

OR-29 (Hillsboro), Riley (D) upgrade from Lean Riley to Likely Riley.  Jeff Duyck was the only real chance the OR GOP had in this district.  With him out of the way since it was revealed he didn’t actually live in the district, it’s hard to believe this one will be too close, especially with former GOOPer Terry Rilling running as an independent.

OR-35 (Tigard), Galizio (D) upgrade from Leans Galizio to Likely Galizio.  With Marino becoming more and more of a laughing stock every day, Galizio looks poised to win by far his biggest win of his three races here.

OR-38 (Lake Oswego), Garrett (D) upgrade from Lean Garrett to Likely Garrett.  I know Steve Griffith (R) personally, he’s a nice guy and I respect him a lot.  That being said, he’s going to get his ass kicked in this district as he has been seemingly unable to raise nearly the amount of $ required to be competitive.

OR-51 (Clackamas), Flores (R), upgrade from Lean Flores to Tossup.  With the large amount of cash Flores’s opponent Brent Barton (D) has managed to raise in this district, he has certainly made this one a close race.  It should be fun to watch.

Let me know what you think.

Here is my personal rundown, a word document almost copy and pasted for how I see the senate races.  

Notes:

– All the numbers, names, and codes can be rather mind-numbing.  If you see any spelling or numerical errors, please tell me.  

-If you think one race should be rated more competitive than another, or less competitive than another, feel free to make your case.  I think I have a good setup, but it isn’t perfect.

-This is a more liberal prediction, how the races will be on election day.  (For example, NY25, Dan Maffei will raise and spend about two million dollars, while his opponent, who isn’t an incumbent, will raise and spend around $500,000 & The DCCC will spend money here if they think it is necessary to pickup this seat.)

– *** = Retired Incumbent

– I round fundraising down to the nearest thousand.

Republican Held Seats:

1-7 = Likely Democratic Pickup

8-14 = Lean Democratic Pickup

15-24 = Toss up

25-37 = Lean Republican Retention

38-49 = Likely Republican Retention

50-68 = Race to Watch

Democratic Held Seats:

1-3 = Toss Up

4-14 = Lean Democratic Retention

15-27 = Likely Democratic Retention

House Republicans

1. New York-25*** (D+3) – – –  R2B

Dan Maffei v. Dale Sweetland

Total Raised — $1,309,000 v. $133,000

Cash On Hand – $961,000 v. $107,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for NY-25

2. New York-13*** (D+1) – – –  R2B

Mike McMahon v. ???

Total Raised —- $498,000 v. $0

Cash On Hand – $470,000 v. $0

CQ Politics – “Democrat Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for NY-13

3. Arizona-01*** (R+2) – – –  R2B

Ann Kirkpatrick v. Sydney Hay

Total Raised —- $968,000 v. $293,000

Cash On Hand – $668,000 v. $257,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for AZ-01

4. New Jersey-03*** (D+3) – – –  R2B

John Adler v. Chris Myers

Total Raised —- $1,719,000 v. $626,000

Cash On Hand – $1,463,000 v. $155,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for NJ-03

5. Virginia-11*** (R+1) – – –  R2B

Gerry Connolly v. Keith Fimian

Total Raised —- $937,000 v. $1,293,000

Cash On Hand – $275,000 v. $1,039,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for VA-11

6. Illinois-11***  (R+1) – – –  R2B

Debbie Halvorson v. Martin Ozinga

Total Raised —- $1,233,000 v. $810,000

Cash On Hand — $916,000 v. $669,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for IL-11

7. New Jersey-07*** (R+1) – – –  R2B

Linda Stender v. Leonard Lance

Total Raised —- $1,545,000 v. $385,000

Cash On Hand – $1,200,000 v. $80,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for NJ-07

———————————————————————

8. New York-26*** (R+3) – – –  R2B

Jon Powers v. Chris Lee

Total Raised —- $869,000 v. $670,000

Cash On Hand – $488,000 v. $636,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for NY-26

9. New Mexico-01*** (D+2) – – –  R2B

Martin Heinrich v. Darren White

Total Raised — $1,240,000 v. $905,000

Cash On Hand — $354,000 v. $634,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for NM-01

10. Michigan-07 (R+2) – – –  R2B

Mark Schauer v. Representative Tim Walberg

Total Raised — $1,330,000 v. $1,208,000

Cash On Hand — $928,000 v. $855,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for MI-07

11. Minnesota-03*** (R+1) – – –  R2B

Ashwin Madia v. Erik Paulson

Total Raised — $1,052,000 v. $1,393,000

Cash On Hand — $738,000 v. $1,123,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for MN-03

12. Ohio-15*** (R+1) – – –  R2B

Mary Jo Kilroy v. Steve Stivers

Total Raised —- $1,559,000 v. $1,216,000

Cash On Hand – $1,163,000 v. $879,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for OH-15

13. Washington-08 (D+2) – – –  R2B

Darcy Burner v. Representative Dave Reichert

Total Raised —- $1,959,000 v. $1,487,000

Cash On Hand – $1,248,000 v. $916,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for WA-08

14. Ohio-16*** (R+4) – – –  R2B

John Boccieri v. Kirk Schuring

Total Raised — $1,081,000 v. $819,000

Cash On Hand — $531,000 v. $348,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for OH-16

———————————————————————

15. New York-29 (R+5) – – –  R2B

Eric Massa v. Representative Randy Kuhl

Total Raised — $1,158,000 v. $943,000

Cash On Hand — $652,000 v. $618,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for NY-29

16. North Carolina-08 (R+3) – – –  R2B

Larry Kissell v. Representative Robert Hayes

Total Raised —- $610,000 v. $2,207,000

Cash On Hand – $231,000 v. $1,174,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for NC-08

17. Illinois-10 (D+4) – – –  R2B

Dan Seals v. Representative Mark Kirk

Total Raised —- $1,988,000 v. $3,763,000

Cash On Hand – $1,175,000 v. $2,856,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for IL-10

18. Michigan-09 (R+0) – – –  R2B

Gary Peters v. Representative Joe Knollenberg

Total Raised —- $1,301,000 v. $2,547,000

Cash On Hand – $1,082,000 v. $1,891,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

2006 Results for MI-09

19. Ohio-01 (R+1) – – –  R2B

Steve Dreihaus v. Representative Steve Chabot

Total Raised —- $889,000 v. $1,356,000

Cash On Hand – $631,000 v. $1,311,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for OH-01

20. Nevada-03 (D+1) – – –  R2B

Dina Titus v. Representative Jon Porter

Total Raised —- $575,000 v. $2,038,000

Cash On Hand – $553,000 v. $1,277,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for NV-03

21. Florida-24 (R+3) – – –  R2B

Suzanne Kosmas v. Representative Tom Feeney

Total Raised —- $1,142,000 v. $1,388,000

Cash On Hand — $936,000 v. $795,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

2006 Results for FL-24

22. Colorado-04 (R+9) – – –  R2B

Betsy Markey v. Representative Marilyn Musgrave

Total Raised —- $958,000 v. $1,661,000

Cash On Hand – $580,000 v. $1,155,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for CO-04

23. Florida-21 (R+6) – – –  R2B

Raul Martinez v. Representative Lincoln Diaz Balart

Total Raised —- $1,219,000 v. $1,485,000

Cash On Hand – $1,079,000 v. $1,456,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

2006 Results for FL-21

24. Connecticut-04 (D+5) – – –  R2B

Jim Himes v. Representative Chris Shays

Total Raised —- $2,055,000 v. $2,329,000

Cash On Hand – $1,444,000 v. $1,698,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for CT-04

———————————————————————

25. New Mexico-02*** (R+6) – – –  R2B

Harry Teague v. Ed Tinsley  

Total Raised —- $1,529,000 v. $1,091,000

Cash On Hand —– $75,000 v. $111,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

2006 Results for NM-02

26. Louisiana-04*** (R+7) – – –  R2B

Paul Carmouche v. Chris Gorman

Total Raised —- $481,000 v. $706,000

Cash On Hand – $388,000 v. $352,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for LA-04

27. Missouri-09*** (R+7)

Judy Baker v. Bob Onder

Total Raised —- $401,000 v. $495,000

Cash On Hand – $140,000 v. $349,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for MO-09

28. Florida-25 (R+4) – – –  R2B

Joe Garcia v. Representative Mario Diaz-Balart

Total Raised —- $824,000 v. $1,135,000

Cash On Hand – $700,000 v. $752,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for FL-25

29. Idaho-01 (R+19) – – –  R2B

Walt Minnick v. Representative Bill Sali

Total Raised —- $997,000 v. $656,000

Cash On Hand – $444,000 v. $250,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for ID-01

30. Alaska-AL (R+14) – – –  R2B

Ethan Berkowitz v. Sean Parnell

Total Raised —- $627,000 v. $291,000  

Cash On Hand – $398,000 v. $207,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”  

2006 Results for AK-AL

31. Missouri-06 (R+5) – – –  R2B

Kay Barnes v. Representative Sam Graves

Total Raised — $1,852,000 v. $1,902,000

Cash On Hand — $962,000 v. $936,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

2006 Results for MO-06

32. Wyoming-AL*** (R+19) – – –  R2B

Gary Trauner v. Mark Gordon

Total Raised —- $955,000 v. $723,000

Cash On Hand – $701,000 v. $69,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for WY-AL

33. Florida-13 (R+4) – – –  R2B

Christine Jennings v. Representative Vernon Buchanan

Total Raised — $1,499,000 v. $2,953,000

Cash On Hand — $578,000 v. $1,572,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for FL-13

34. Ohio-02 (R+13) – – – ER

Victoria Wulsin v. Representative Jean Schmidt

Total Raised — $1,090,000 v. $858,000

Cash On Hand — $378,000 v. $393,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

2006 Results for OH-02

35. Alabama-02*** (R+13) – – –  R2B

Bobby Bright v. Jay Love

Total Raised —- $399,000 v. $1,051,000

Cash On Hand – $280,000 v. $90,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

2006 Results for AL-02

36. California-04*** (R+11) – – –  R2B

Charlie Brown v. Thomas McClintock

Total Raised — $1,314,000 v. $1,596,000

Cash On Hand — $675,000 v. $117,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for CA-04

37. Virginia-02 (R+6) – – –  R2B

Glenn Nye v. Representative Thelma Drake

Total Raised —- $515,000 v. $1,334,000

Cash On Hand – $409,000 v. $682,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

2006 Results for VA-02  

———————————————————————

38. Texas-07 (R+16) – – – ER

Michael Skelly v. Representative John Culberson

Total Raised —- $1,465,000 v. $983,000

Cash On Hand – $1,050,000 v. $550,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for TX-07  

39. Kentucky-02*** (R+13) – – – ER

David Boswell v. Brett Guthrie

Total Raised — $219,000 v. $764,000

Cash On Hand — $45,000 v. $661,000

CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for KY-03

40. Texas-10 (R+13)Larry Doherty v. Representative Mike McCaul

Total Raised —- $701,000 v. $975,000

Cash On Hand – $259,000 v. $489,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for TX-10

41. Nevada-02 (R+8) – – – ER

Jill Derby v. Representative Dean Heller

Total Raised —- $437,000 v. $1,169,000

Cash On Hand – $353,000 v. $984,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for NV-02

42. Florida-08 (R+3)

Charlie Stuart v. Representative Richard Keller

Total Raised —- $613,000 v. $986,000

Cash On Hand – $414,000 v. $935,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

2006 Results for FL-08

43. Maryland-01*** (R+10) – – –  R2B

Frank Kratovil v. Andrew Harris

Total Raised —- $789,000 v. $1,905,000

Cash On Hand – $454,000 v. $609,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for MD-01

44. Pennsylvania-03 (R+2) – – – ER

Kathleen Dahlkemper v. Representative Phil English

Total Raised —- $314,000 v. $1,579,000

Cash On Hand – $127,000 v. $786,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

2006 Results for PA-03

45. Arizona-03 (R+6) – – –  R2B

Bob Lord v. Representative John Shadegg

Total Raised — $1,065,000 v. $1,704,000

Cash On Hand — $706,000 v. $1,354,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for AZ-03

46. New Jersey-05 (R+4) – – – ER

Dennis Shulman v. Representative Scott Garrett

Total Raised —- $548,000 v. $983,000

Cash On Hand – $258,000 v. $649,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for NJ-05

47. Virginia-05 (R+6) – – – ER

Tom Perriello v. Representative Virgil Goode

Total Raised —- $910,000 v. $818,000

Cash On Hand – $519,000 v. $834,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for VA-05

48. West Virginia-02 (R+5) – – –  R2B

Anne Barth v. Representative Shelly Capito Moore

Total Raised —- $629,000 v. $1,143,000

Cash On Hand – $353,000 v. $974,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

2006 Results for WV-02

49. California-50 (R+5) – – – ER

Nick Leibham v. Representative Brian Bilbray

Total Raised —- $560,000 v. $879,000

Cash On Hand – $266,000 v. $528,000

CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for CA-50

———————————————————————

50. Pennsylvania-15 (D+2) – – – ER

Siobhan Bennett v. Representative Charlie Dent

Total Raised —- $537,000 v. $1,161,000

Cash On Hand – $353,000 v. $686,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for PA-15

51. Alabama-03 (R+4) – – – ER

Josh Segall v. Representative Mike Rogers

Total Raised — $521,000 v. $906,000

Cash On Hand – $410,000 v. $1,119,000

CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for AL-03

52. Pennsylvania-06 (D+2) – – – ER

Bob Roggio v. Representative Jim Gerlach

Total Raised —- $324,000 v. $1,814,000

Cash On Hand – $259,000 v. $761,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for PA-06

53. Florida-18 (R+4) – – – ER

Annette Taddeo v. Representative Ros-Lehtinen

Total Raised —- $475,000 v. $1,124,000

Cash On Hand – $457,000 v. $1,893,000

CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for FL-18

54. Indiana-03 (R+16) – – – ER

Michael Montagano v. Representative Mike Souder

Total Raised —- $459,000 v. $556,000

Cash On Hand – $351,000 v. $323,000

CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for IN-03

55. California-46 (R+6)

Debbie Cook v. Representative Dana Rohrbacher

Total Raised — $157,000 v. $319,000

Cash On Hand — $97,000 v. $387,000

CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for CA-46

56.Virginia-10 (R+5) – – – ER

Judy Feder v. Representative Frank Wolf

Total Raised — $1,207,000 v. $1,403,000

Cash On Hand — $812,000 v. $849,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for VA-10

57. Indiana-04 (R+17)

Nels Ackerson v. Representative Steve Buyer

Total Raised — $395,000 v. $479,000

Cash On Hand – $177,000 v. $623,000

CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Safe Republican”

2006 Results for IN-04

58. Illinois-18*** (R+5) – – – ER

Colleen Callahan v. Aaron Schock

Total Raised —- $227,000 v. $1,498,000

Cash On Hand – $155,000 v. $299,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for IL-18

59. California-26 (R+4)

Russ Warner v. Representative David Dreier

Total Raised —- $651,000 v. $918,000

Cash On Hand – $125,000 v. $1,903,000

CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Safe Republican”

2006 Results for CA-26

60. Ohio-14 (R+2)

William O’Neill v. Representative Steven LaTourette

Total Raised — $345,000 v. $1,166,000

Cash On Hand — $46,000 v. $870,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Safe Republican”

2006 Results for OH-14

61. Illinois-06 (R+3) – – – ER

Jill Morgenthaler v. Peter Roskam

Total Raised —- $495,000 v. $1,770,000

Cash On Hand – $230,000 v. $1,213,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for IL-06

62. Florida-09 (R+4) – – – ER

John Dicks v. Representative Gus Bilirakis

Total Raised —- $354,000 v. $1,049,000

Cash On Hand – $323,000 v. $642,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for FL-09

63. Louisiana-07 (R+7) – – – ER

Don Cravins Jr. v. Representative Charles Boustany

Total Raised —- $107,000 v. $1,014,000

Cash On Hand – $104,000 v. $669,000

CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Safe Republican”

2006 Results for LA-07

64. Ohio-07*** (R+6)

Sharen Neuhardt v. Steve Austria

Total Raised —- $363,000 v. $818,000

Cash On Hand – $108,000 v. $361,000

CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for OH-07

65. Minnesota-02 (R+3) – – – ER

Steve Sarvi v. Representative John Kline

Total Raised — $251,000 v. $1,075,000

Cash On Hand — $98,000 v. $647,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for MN-02

66. North Carolina-10 (R+15) – – – ER

Dan Johnson v. Representative Patrick McHenry

Total Raised —- $341,000 v. $1,031,000

Cash On Hand – $218,000 v. $410,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for NC-10

67. Minnesota-06 (R+5) – – – ER

El Tinklenberg v. Representative Michele Bachmann

Total Raised —- $531,000 v. $1,932,000

Cash On Hand – $225,000 v. $1,297,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for MN-06

68. Nebraska-02 (R+9)

James Esch v. Representative Lee Terry

Total Raised —- $246,000 v. $957,000

Cash On Hand – $140,000 v. $616,000

CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for NE-02

–

–

–

House Democrats

1. Texas-22 (R+15)

Representative Nick Lampson v. Pete Olson

Total Raised — $1,635,000 v. $1,068,000

Cash On Hand – $1,148,000 v. $261,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for TX-22  

2. Kansas-02 (R+7)

Representative Nancy Boyda v. Jim Ryun

Total Raised — $1,227,000 v. $1,649,000

Cash On Hand — $892,000 v. $223,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for KS-02  

3. Florida-16 (R+2)

Representative Tim Mahoney v. Hal Valeche

Total Raised — $2,497,000 v. $1,054,000

Cash On Hand – $1,172,000 v. $828,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for FL-16

———————————————————————

4. New Hampshire-01 (R+0)

Representative Carol Shea-Porter v. Jeb Bradley

Total Raised — $919,000 v. $714,000

Cash On Hand – $748,000 v. $475,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for NH-01  

5. Oregon-05*** (D+1)

Kurt Shrader v. Michael Erickson

Total Raised — $382,000 v. $1,963,000

Cash On Hand – $231,000 v. $400,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for OR-05  

6. Alabama-05*** (R+6)

Parker Griffith v. Wayne Parker

Total Raised — $572,000 v. $431,000

Cash On Hand – $351,000 v. $73,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for AL-05  

7. Georgia-08 (R+8)

Representative Jim Marshall v. Richard Goddard

Total Raised — $1,169,000 v. $767,000

Cash On Hand – $1,372,000 v. $488,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for GA-08  

8. Kentucky-03 (D+2)

Representative John Yarmuth v. Anne Northup

Total Raised — $1,456,000 v. $1,081,000

Cash On Hand – $1,001,000 v. $819,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for KY-03  

9. Pennsylvania-10 (R+8)

Representative Chris Carney v. Chris Hackett

Total Raised — $1,648,000 v. $2,010,000

Cash On Hand – $1,149,000 v. $174,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for PA-10  

10. Pennsylvania-04 (R+3)

Representative Jason Altmire v. Melissa Hart

Total Raised — $2,122,000 v. $823,000

Cash On Hand – $1,574,000 v. $624,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for PA-04  

11. Louisiana-06 (R+7)

Don Cazayoux v. Bill Cassidy

Total Raised — $1,833,000 v. $212,000

Cash On Hand — $271,000 v. $195,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for LA-06  

12. Mississippi-01 (R+10)

Travis Childers v. Greg Davis

Total Raised — $1,315,000 v. $1,345,000

Cash On Hand — $160,000 v. $53,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for MS-01  

13. Arizona-08 (R+1)

Representative Gabrielle Giffords v. Tim Bee

Total Raised — $2,499,000 v. $1,146,000

Cash On Hand – $2,077,000 v. $687,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for AZ-08  

14. New York-20 (R+3)

Representative Kirsten Gillibrand v. Alexander Treadwell

Total Raised — $3,602,000 v. $2,693,000

Cash On Hand – $2,802,000 v. $1,269,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for NY-20    

———————————————————————

15. California-11 (R+3)

Representative Jerry McNerney v. Dean Andal

Total Raised — $2,130,000 v. $798,000

Cash On Hand – $1,375,000 v. $663,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for CA-11  

16. Pennsylvania-11 (D+5)

Representative Paul Kanjorski v. Lou Barletta

Total Raised — $1,513,000 v. $517,000

Cash On Hand – $2,174,000 v. $321,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for PA-11  

17. Arizona-05 (R+4)

Representative Harry Mitchell v. David Schweikert

Total Raised — $1,717,000 v. $681,000

Cash On Hand – $1,372,000 v. $514,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for AZ-05  

18. Connecticut-05 (D+4)

Representative Chris Murphy v. David Cappiello

Total Raised — $2,272,000 v. $763,000

Cash On Hand – $1,901,000 v. $710,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”

2006 Results for CT-05  

19. Wisconsin-08 (R+4)

Representative Steve Kagen v. John Gard

Total Raised — $1,410,000 v. $812,000

Cash On Hand — $926,000 v. $649,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for WI-08

20. Texas-23 (R+4)

Representative Ciro Rodriguez v. Lyle Larson

Total Raised — $2,164,000 v. $534,000

Cash On Hand – $1,193,000 v. $279,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”

2006 Results for TX-23  

21. Illinois-14 (R+5)

Representative Bill Foster v. Jim Oberweis

Total Raised — $3,459,000 v. $4,660,000

Cash On Hand — $442,000 v. $547,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for IL-14

22. Indiana-09 (R+7)

Representative Baron Hill v. Mike Sodrel

Total Raised — $1,734,000 v. $664,000

Cash On Hand – $1,160,000 v. $379,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for IN-09

23. Minnesota-01 (R+1)

Representative Tim Walz v. Brian Davis

Total Raised — $1,941,000 v. $490,000

Cash On Hand – $1,210,000 v. $377,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”

2006 Results for MN-01

24. New York-19 (R+1)

Representative John Hall v. Kieran Lalor

Total Raised — $1,821,000 v. $226,000

Cash On Hand – $1,267,000 v. $150,000

CQ Politics – “Democrat Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”

2006 Results for NY-19

25. Ohio-18 (R+6)

Representative Zach Space v. Fred Dailey

Total Raised — $1,809,000 v. $272,000

Cash On Hand – $1,141,000 v. $12,000

CQ Politics – “Democrat Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”

2006 Results for OH-18

26. Georgia-12 (D+2)

Representative John Barrow v. John Stone

Total Raised — $1,725,000 v. $134,000

Cash On Hand – $1,109,000 v. $8,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”

2006 Results for GA-12

27. Indiana-08 (R+9)

Representative Brad Ellsworth v. Greg Goode

Total Raised — $1,246,000 v. $144,000

Cash On Hand — $779,000 v. $9,000

CQ Politics – “Democrat Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”

2006 Results for IN-08

Total # of Red to Blue Candidates: 38

Total # of Emerging Races Candidates: 21

Current Breakdown: 236D-199R

Prediction: 25-35 Democratic pickups in the US House

July in Oklahoma heats up, especially in election years.

With the primary election four days away, Andrew Rice’s campaign is getting more intense.  We took it to the next level on Monday by launching our first TV ad, called “Leader.”  This 30-second ad has received great feedback from all corners of Oklahoma.

Here’s the ad; more on the heat below the fold.

The ad demonstrates one thing clearly: Sen. Rice is a unique candidate in a unique election year.  He is gaining ground on Jim Inhofe by fighting the insurance industry to improve patients’ rights, opposing the War in Iraq, promoting ways to break America’s addiction to oil, and guaranteeing that he will not trample on the privacy rights of American citizens.

Though his background and message are catching on among voters, the biggest obstacle in our race right now is name ID.  From Kos’ baseline poll in mid-June:

So what is keeping Rice down? Name ID.

 Do you have a favorable or un favorable opinion of Andrew Rice?

 Not sure: 52

Less than half of Oklahoma voters know who Rice is, but over 50 percent will consider voting for someone not named Inhoffe.

From the feedback we’ve gotten, the ad is effectively introducing voters to Sen. Rice – and they’re buying into the campaign.

Right now is a critical moment in our campaign to defeat Jim Inhofe and to send Andrew Rice to the Senate. We’re building name ID and building excitement for our race by going up on TV.  We’re going to have a tremendous showing at the polls on Tuesday, and we’re going to build from that victory to a great win in November.

We’re trying to raise $35,000 to stay on the air a week longer than planned.  Can you help us out?  A few dollars toward TV now can make this race competetive in fall.  Our internal polls show that once people know Andrew and his message, he beats Inhofe by a wide margin.

So please help us raise $35K to raise Andrew’s name ID.  July’s hot, but the next few months will only get hotter in this campaign.  We’re building toward victory on November 4th, but we need resources now to keep it up.

Best,

Karina Henderson

Rice for US Senate

A poll from University of New Hampshire Survey Center that showed Shaheen leading Sununu 46%-42% also came with half the people polled in CD-01.

University of New Hampshire Survey Center (7/11-20) 240 people (MoE 6.4%)

Bradley – 46%

Shea-Porter – 40%

http://www.politico.com/blogs/…

Next, an internal poll from the Harris campign that should probably be taken with a grain of salt (as the link says – High MoE + Poll Taken in one day)

Arthur J. Finkelstein & Associates for Harris (7/15) 300 people (MoE 5.65%)

Harris – 44%

Kratovil – 28%

http://www.politico.com/blogs/…

I would take both polls with a grain of salt because I doubt Sununu is only down four points in the NH-Sen race.  

MD-01 Fundraising round-up

Maryland-01*** (R+10) – – –  R2B

Frank Kratovil v. Andrew Harris

Total Raised — $789,000 v. $1,905,000

Cash On Hand – $454,000 v. $609,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 results – http://www.opensecrets.org/rac…

NH-01 Fundraising round-up

New Hampshire-01 (R+0)

Representative Carol Shea-Porter v. Jeb Bradley

Total Raised — $919,000 v. $714,000

Cash On Hand – $748,000 v. $475,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 results – http://www.opensecrets.org/rac…