Tag: 2008 Elections

Cross posted from 21stCenturyDems.org.

As I reflect on the Take Back America 2008 conference, I’m thrilled 21st Century Democrats was a partner organization at the event.  We are proud to stand with other great groups like Campaign for America’s Future, Progressive Majority, ACORN, People for the American Way, the Center for Progressive Leadership, and many others who are working hard to change the direction of this country from the disastrous policies of George W. Bush.

For me, one of the highlights of the conference was the roll out of “A Responsible Plan To End The War In Iraq” by Darcy Burner, Chellie Pingree and several other Congressional candidates. Darcy explained how a the Bush Administration’s top down approach to ending the war in Iraq has failed to stem the violence and that’s why she drafted the plan and organized fellow Congressional candidates to take a bottom’s up approach by putting forward a plan to end the war.

One of the most important points made during the rollout was the need to change the frame of the conversation about the war from whether the surge is working to what we should be doing to make our country safer.   To shift the conversation we need to get more people involved in this debate. We must talk to our neighbors, friends, family – and most importantly to the candidates where we live – and ask them to sign on to the responsible plan to end the war in Iraq.

We in the progressive community have asked for leadership on ending the war, and now have Darcy Burner, Chellie Pingree and several other candidates who have put themselves on the line by not only standing up against the war, but by providing a detailed plan of how the United States can bring our military engagement in Iraq to a responsible end and take steps to restore the checks and balances in our government to make sure we do not make the same mistake again in the future.

You can endorse the plan here. You can also show your support the candidates leading this effort by donating to Darcy Burner, Chellie Pingree or the slate of Congressional candidates who have signed onto the plan.

On Friday, the DCCC released its list of 90 targeted races (both offense and defense) to watch this year. We’ve transcribed the full list in a few handy charts below — have a look. Italics denote the races that have been given “Red to Blue” status so far.

Offense:

District	Incumbent	District	Incumbent	District	Incumbent
AL-02	OPEN (Everett)	IL-06	Peter Roskam	NY-03	Peter King
AK-AL	Don Young	IL-10	Mark Kirk	NY-13	Vito Fossella
AZ-01	OPEN (Renzi)	IL-11	OPEN (Weller)	NY-25	OPEN (Walsh)
AZ-03	John Shadegg	KY-02	OPEN (Lewis)	NY-26	Thomas Reynolds
CA-04	OPEN (Doolittle)	LA-04	OPEN (McCrery)	NY-29	Randy Kuhl
CA-26	David Dreier	LA-06	OPEN (Baker)	OH-01	Steve Chabot
CA-50	Brian Bilbray	MD-01	OPEN (Gilchrest)	OH-02	Jean Schmidt
CO-04	Marilyn Musgrave	MI-07	Tim Walberg	OH-14	Steve LaTourette
CT-04	Chrissy Shays	MI-09	Joe Knollenberg	OH-15	OPEN (Pryce)
FL-08	Ric Keller	MN-03	OPEN (Ramstad)	OH-16	OPEN (Regula)
FL-09	Gus Bilirakis	MN-06	Michele Bachmann	PA-03	Phil English
FL-13	Vern Buchanan	MO-06	Sam Graves	PA-06	Jim Gerlach
FL-15	OPEN (Weldon)	MO-09	OPEN (Hulshof)	PA-18	Tim Murphy
FL-18	Ileana Ros-Lehtinen	NC-08	Robin Hayes	VA-02	Thelma Drake
FL-21	Lincoln Diaz-Balart	NJ-03	OPEN (Saxton)	VA-10	Frank Wolf
FL-24	Tom Feeney	NJ-07	OPEN (Ferguson)	VA-11	OPEN (Davis)
FL-25	Mario Diaz-Balart	NM-01	OPEN (Wilson)	WA-08	Dave Reichert
IA-04	Tom Latham	NM-02	OPEN (Pearce)	WV-02	Shelley Moore-Capito
ID-01	Bill Sali	NV-02	Dean Heller	WY-AL	OPEN (Cubin)
		NV-03	Jon Porter

Defense:

District	Incumbent	District	Incumbent	District	Incumbent
AZ-05	Harry Mitchell	IN-02	Joe Donnelly	NY-24	Mike Arcuri
AZ-08	Gabrielle Giffords	IN-08	Brad Ellsworth	NC-11	Heath Shuler
CA-11	Jerry McNerney	IN-09	Baron Hill	OH-18	Zack Space
CT-02	Joe Courtney	IA-03	Leonard Boswell	PA-10	Chris Carney
CT-05	Chris Murphy	KS-02	Nancy Boyda	PA-04	Jason Altmire
FL-16	Tim Mahoney	KY-03	John Yarmuth	PA-08	Patrick Murphy
FL-22	Ron Klein	MN-01	Tim Walz	TX-17	Chet Edwards
GA-12	John Barrow	NH-01	Carol Shea-Porter	TX-22	Nick Lampson
GA-08	Jim Marshall	NH-02	Paul Hodes	TX-23	Ciro Rodriguez
IL-08	Melissa Bean	NY-19	John Hall	WI-08	Steve Kagen
IL-14	Bill Foster	NY-20	Kirsten Gillibrand

So with eight months to go, I figure it’s time for an updated look at all the 2008 Senate races.  There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively.  Now obviously, quite a few of the races are considered “safe” for the incumbent.  So I’ll rank these in terms of tiers.  The top tier will be the races where there is a serious challenger to the incumbent (or at least the incumbent’s party, in cases of retirement), where the party holding the seat has a real shot of switching.  The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point.  Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play.  And the safe seats?  Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.

Note: Some of this may seem repetitive, with information you already know.  That’s because I originally wrote this for the Bruin Democrats, many of whom don’t follow the national races like we do.  Consider this a primer for both newcomers and political junkies alike.

Tier I

1. Virginia: Incredibly popular former Governor Mark Warner (D) is running for this seat that opened up when John Warner (R), no relation, announced his retirement.  Warner left the governorship with a whopping 80% approval rating.  That’s freaking unheard of.  He’ll face another former Governor, Jim Gilmore (R), who some of you may remember tried running for President last year.  Gilmore was known as the governor who helped drive the state into near-bankruptcy with his car tax cut, and Warner as the one who fixed the problem when he took over for Gilmore.  Rasmussen Reports released a poll two weeks ago showing Mark Warner would CRUSH Jim Gilmore, 57%-37%.

2. New Hampshire: John Sununu (R) is about to become 2008’s version of Rick Santorum.  Democrats could run a ham sandwich against him, and it would be a competitive race.  No, really.  But why settle for a ham sandwich when you can run the former governor?  Jeanne Shaheen (D), who Sununu beat in 2002 thanks to some illegal phone-jamming on Election Day for which several GOP operatives went to prison, has led Sununu in almost every single poll taken.  The latest from the University of New Hampshire shows her leading 54%-37%.  Rasmussen shows a closer race, with her leading 49%-41%.  A general rule of thumb: any incumbent polling under 50% in an election poll is in trouble.  Under 40%, and you can start writing their political obituary.  Add to that, the fact New Hampshire strongly went blue in 2006 all over the place, kicking out both Republican Congressmen and flipping over 80 seats in the state House, giving Democrats control of both state legislature for the first time since 1910, and Sununu has to be considered the most endangered incumbent.

3. New Mexico: When Pete Domenici (R) announced he was retiring, it suddenly turned this former Tier III seat into a top tier race.  Rep. Tom Udall (D) announced for this seat shortly thereafter.  Yes, he is part of the famed Udall political family; his father Stewart served as Interior Secretary under JFK, and his uncle Mo was an Arizona Congressman for 30 years, also running for President in 1976.  Stewart Udall was largely responsible for just about all the environmental laws that were passed in the 1960s.  The GOP side will feature a primary fight between Reps. Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce.  So the entire New Mexico U.S. House delegation is running for this Senate seat!  Before Udall even entered the race, hypothetical matchups from Research 2000 and SurveyUSA showed him crushing both GOP opponents by over 15 points.  But a more recent Rasmussen poll shows a closer race, though with Udall still hitting the 50% mark in both matchups.  The main New Mexico blog questioned the accuracy of the poll, given their matchup showing Obama tied with McCain, defying the trends you see in other states.

4. Minnesota: Norm Coleman (R) won this seat in 2002 only after Paul Wellstone (D) died just a few weeks before the election.  With two top challengers in comedian Al Franken and lawyer Mike Ciresi, Coleman had a change of heart on Iraq, actually criticizing Bush over his handling of Iraq for the first time in years.  And the polls have been steadily favoring the Democrats, especially Franken.  While earlier polls showed Coleman leading by double digits (though under the 50% mark), both Democrats have been steadily closing the gap.  And in February, three polls came out showing Al Franken either leading Coleman or basically tied: Minnesota Public Radio (Franken 43.2%, Coleman 40%), Rasmussen (Franken 49%, Coleman 46%), and SurveyUSA (Coleman 47%, Franken 46%).  Ciresi doesn’t seem to do as well.  Franken is showing himself to be much more than just a comedian.  In 2007, he raised close to $7 million from over 81,000 people!  The Minnesota SEIU, a decent-sized union, just endorsed Franken too.  In case you’re wondering, there’s no “primary” for the Democrats, but rather the nominee will be picked at the party convention this June among about 1,400 delegates.

5. Colorado: Wayne Allard (R) kept his pledge of only serving two terms, and is retiring from the Senate.  Democrats have cleared the path for Rep. Mark Udall here.  He’s Mo Udall’s son, and Tom Udall’s cousin.  On the GOP side, former Rep. Bob Schaffer is the likely nominee.  Colorado has been trending bluer recently, picking up a Senate seat in 2004 (Ken Salazar), and a congressional district and the governor’s office in 2006.  Schaffer had previously lost the GOP primary for that Senate seat back in 2004 to Pete Coors.  At the end of 2007, Udall was sitting on a $3.6 million warchest, with Schaffer trailing by over $2 million.  Money isn’t everything, but damn.  Dick Wadhams (no, really, that’s his name) is taking over Schaffer’s campaign. Wadhams got Allard first elected to the Senate, and became a rising start in the GOP for managing John Thune’s 2004 win over Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle in South Dakota.  But, he was also in charge of managing George Allen’s 2006 re-election bid in Virginia, sending him from a 20-point lead seven months out to defeat.  (Allen revealing his inner racist greatly helped, too.)  However, recent Rasmussen polling shows Schaffer barely edging out Udall, so this race is far from a given pickup.

6. Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D) is the most endangered Democratic incumbent in 2008.  But how endangered that really is remains to be seen.  She was able to win in 2002, a decidedly strong year for the GOP.  Karl Rove was able to woo state treasurer John Kennedy (no relation to the Kennedy family in Massachusetts) to switch parties to run for re-election to State Treasurer as a Republican last August, and after winning, he announced he would challenge Landrieu for her Senate seat.  Party switching actually seems rather common in Louisiana.  And hundreds of thousands of residents from New Orleans and the surrounding areas never came back to the state after Hurricane Katrina, making it even more red than it used to be.  Bobby Jindal (R) didn’t even need a runoff to win the governor’s race last year, getting over 50% of the vote on the first ballot and performing stronger than expected.  So that doesn’t bode well for Landrieu’s chances.  The good news for her is that she raised over twice as much as Kennedy did in the fourth quarter last year (October – December) and has almost 10 times as cash on hand as he does.

7. Alaska: Ted Stevens (R) is always a candidate for retirement, being 85 years old now, but says he will seek a sixth term.  But Stevens is in some legal trouble, with the FBI having raided his home last June in connection with possible bribes from Veco Corp., where several executives have already pled guilty to bribing his son Ben, who was the former state senate president.  Former Veco CEO Bill Allen admitted some bribe money also went towards Ted Stevens.  Democrats got their top choice when Anchorage mayor Mark Begich announced he was forming an exploratory committee (the first step in running).  His father Nick Begich was a former Congressman, who was killed in a plane crash along with House Majority Leader Hale Boggs (D-LA) in 1972.  A Research 2000 poll from December showed Begich already leading Stevens 47%-41%.

8. Oregon: Gordon Smith (R) has two challengers in lawyer/activist Steve Novick (D) and Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D).  Smith’s approvals from 2007 are not as good as they were in 2006 and before.  We’ll see if that trend continues.  The state party itself is in financial trouble too, facing over a quarter million dollars in debt, and the IRS is calling for some missing payroll taxes.  Rasmussen polling still shows Smith with double digit leads over both Democrats, but he is under the 50% mark.  Interesting to note, Smith is actually a cousin to the two Udalls running for Senate.

9. Maine: Susan Collins (R) doesn’t have the stature that fellow Senator Olympia Snowe (R) has.  Rep. Tom Allen (D) is running to challenge Collins.  But even though Maine is a blue state, he’ll have an uphill climb.  Collins has worked hard to craft her moderate credentials.  The most recent polls all show Collins over the 50% mark, with almost 20-point leads over Allen.  And the Maine newspapers suck.  I mean, really suck.

10. Texas: John Cornyn (R) has some pretty anemic poll numbers, and the immigration issue seems to have triggered a change in the Latino community.  State rep. Rick Noriega (D) got a nice boost when wealthy trial attorney Mikal Watts (D) dropped out of the race and threw his support to Noriega, ensuring a united Democratic front against Cornyn in November.  Noriega is also Lt. Col. in the Texas National Guard, served in Afghanistan after 9/11, and was chosen to coordinate relief efforts in Houston after Hurricane Katrina.  Earlier polling shows Texans are largely dissatisfied with Cornyn, and a baseline poll from last September showed Cornyn beating Noriega 51%-35%, with only 40% saying Cornyn deserved re-election.  And that was before Watts dropped out of the Democratic primary.  The Texas GOP seems to be concerned about this race, as they recently demanded Noriega release his military records… to them.  Instead, Noriega released his records to the entire public and denounced their swiftboating tactics at the same time.  Well played, sir.  However, the fundraising numbers are troubling, with Cornyn having outraised Noriega by more than a 4-to-1 margin in the fourth quarter, and Noriega trailed by almost $7 million in cash on hand to end the year.

Tier II

I decided, for the sake of my own sanity, not to try to rank the Tier II and III races.  These are given in alphabetical order, by state.

Kentucky: Even though Mitch McConnell (R) became the Senate Minority Leader, he is a top target of the Democrats.  And with former Governor Ernie Fletcher (R) losing his re-election bid to Steve Beshear (D) 59%-41% last November, that made Kentucky Democrats even more confident.  But then Kentucky Attorney General Greg Stumbo (D) and State Auditor Crit Luallen (D) both declined to run, and netroots favorite Lt. Col. Andrew Horne (D), a Marine who has served in both the Persian Gulf War and the Iraq War, dropped his bid.  Rasmussen had shown both Stumbo and Luallen holding McConnell under the 50% mark, and for the Senate Minority Leader who can bring home the pork, that showed significant dissatisfaction with McConnell in Kentucky.  Now, the Democratic establishment seems to have coalesced around wealthy businessman Bruce Lunsford, who’s lost several primaries before, and ticked off a lot of Democrats by endorsing Fletcher over Ben Chandler (D) for Governor back in 2003 after losing the primary to Chandler.  The blogs are, ah, less than pleased.  We’ve yet to see how Lunsford would match up against McConnell.

Mississippi-B: Roger Wicker (R), appointed by governor Haley Barbour (R) on New Year’s Eve after Trent Lott (R) resigned to become a lobbyist, won’t have all the incumbency power Lott had accumulated over the years.  Wicker was the Congressman from MS-01, so he’s won elected office previously.  But Democrats scored a huge get when former Governor Ronnie Musgrove announced he was running for Senate, and former Rep. Ronnie Shows (D) ended his campaign, deferring to Musgrove.  Some polls have shown this matchup would be close.

Nebraska: With Chuck Hagel (R) retiring, all eyes had turned to former Nebraska Governor and Senator Bob Kerrey (D) to see if he would challenge for this open seat.  But, he announced last October that he wouldn’t run.  But Mike Johanns (R), who was also a former Governor of Nebraska, quit his job as Bush’s Agriculture Secretary to run for the seat.  The netroots were thrilled when rancher and history professor Scott Kleeb (D) threw his hat in the ring.  While Kleeb lost the NE-03 House race in 2006, that district is the most Republican in Nebraska, and Kleeb got a higher-than-expected 45% of the vote.  That’s had a lot of people thinking he would actually win in the other two districts, and thus a statewide race.  Of course, that doesn’t take into account how he’d be running against the former governor of the state.

South Dakota: Tim Johnson (D) is fully back at work after suffering a brain hemorrhage in December 2006.  His illness had made Republicans hesitant to challenge or attack him.  Governor Mike Rounds (R) would be a top challenger, but hasn’t made any indications that he will give up his governorship for the seat.  And when polling shows Johnson may be the most popular Senator in the country, why would he?

Tier III

Alabama: The Democrats’ top hope in Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks announced he was not running, leaving little-known state senator Vivian Figures (D) the only challenger to incumbent Jeff Sessions (R).  But… with the recent 60 Minutes piece on former Alabama governor Don Siegelman (D) being sent to prison on incredibly flimsy charges which Karl Rove may have had a hand in, those of us who’ve been following the story know that the guy who supposedly gave illegal contributions to Siegelman had also done the exact same thing with Sessions.  And it seems Sessions was desperate enough to try and kill the 60 Minutes story before it aired.  So there’s a chance Sessions will get ensnared in this growing scandal, in which case his seat may not be so safe.  But for now, it’s still Tier III.

Idaho: It’s looking like a rematch between Lt. Governor Jim Risch (R) and former Congressman Larry LaRocco (D), who lost the 2006 Lt. Gov. race to Risch by a sizable 58%-39% margin.  While LaRocco finished 2007 with more cash on hand than Risch, he had been raising money for most of 2007, while Risch only jumped in after the Larry Craig airport bathroom… ah… incident.

New Jersey: Frank Lautenberg (D) said he’s running again, but his age is always a concern, as he is already 84 years old right now.  His poll numbers also don’t look that good, but no New Jersey politician’s numbers ever look really good.  But no top-tier challenger has yet stepped up to challenge him.  Anne Estabrook (R) recently plopped $1.6 million of her own money into her campaign, but when she answers questions like this, Lautenberg may not have much to worry about.

North Carolina: Both Governor Mike Easley (D) and state rep. Grier Martin (D) decided not to run for this seat, giving Elizabeth Dole (R) some good news.  The declared Democrats are state senator Kay Hagan and businessman Jim Neal.  The blogosphere seems to be supporting Neal in this race.  FYI, if Jim Neal were to get the Democratic nomination and then beat Dole in the general, he would be the first openly gay Senator in U.S. history.

Oklahoma: James Inhofe (R) looks pretty safe, though interestingly enough, Inhofe has never gotten to 50% approval in the history of SurveyUSA’s polling.  State senator and netroots favorite Andrew Rice (D), who lost his brother in the 9/11 attacks, has declared for this race.

South Carolina: This race is only in Tier III because Lindsey Graham (R) may actually be primaried out of his own party, for his support of Bush’s immigration plan.  The natives are restless.  A party switch is much less likely, but a different senator serving in this seat come 2009 is a distinct possibility.

Tennessee: Well, businessman Mike McWherter (D), son of former Tennessee Governor Ned McWherter (D), announced back in November that he was not going to run for this seat, a blow for Democrats.  But, former Tennessee Democratic Party chair Bob Tuke announced last week that he will run.  It remains to be seen if Tuke can make this a real race against Lamar Alexander (R), who was also a two-term governor of Tennessee and the Secretary of Education under George H.W. Bush.

Democratic safe seats

Arkansas (Mark Pryor)

Delaware (Joe Biden, so safe I forgot to include him last time)

Illinois (Dick Durbin)

Iowa (Tom Harkin)

Massachusetts (John Kerry)

Michigan (Carl Levin)

Montana (Max Baucus)

Rhode Island (Jack Reed)

West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller)

Republican safe seats

Georgia (Saxby Chambliss)

Kansas (Pat Roberts)

Mississippi (Thad Cochran)

Wyoming (Michael Enzi)

Wyoming (John Barrasso)

So there you have it, my personal rankings for the 2008 Senate races, as they stand at the beginning of March.  Things can still change if some candidates jump in or drop out.  But the filing deadline has already passed in some states, so getting our dream candidate in some of these races has already passed.  And we won’t know what the national mood will be 8 months from now.  Still, given that, these are my picks, and I’m sticking with them… until my next update, at least.

Feel free to rip me apart in the comments, telling me I don’t know what the hell I’m talking about, how could I possibly put a certain race in Tier II or III when it’s so obviously a top tier race, why I’m being too optimistic in some seat, etc.  Have at it, folks.  🙂

(From the diaries – promoted by DavidNYC)

The L.A. Times blog has the story.  Most blogs focused on the line that Mitt Romney may re-enter the race, but check this out: Mitt Romney’s son Josh may run for Congress!

After a full year of campaigning for his father around the country, Josh Romney, who is the only Romney clan member to reside in Utah, is reported to be considering a race for the House of Representatives as a Republican representing Utah’s 2nd Congressional District, a seat currently held by Democrat Jim Matheson.

In an interview with the Deseret Morning News to be published in Monday’s editions, the younger Romney acknowledges that he is considering the House race. “I’m pretty young,” he says, “but I’ve had good experience on the campaign trail.” He campaigned for his father all year and invested the summer visiting each of Iowa’s 99 counties.

So what do you guys think?

The First districts of Louisiana and Kentucky both have great Democratic women running to win their seats. Heather Ryan in Kentucky’s first, and Gilda Reed in Louisiana’s first are definately what our party need in Washington. They deserve the support of grassroots Democrats in the blogosphere. I just want to look at some of the reasons why.

First, from Gilda Reed, down in Louisiana:

“I am running for the U.S. House of Representatives in Louisiana’s 1st Congressional District to make a powerful difference in the quality of life for the working middle class and the poor, to put an end to the War in Iraq, bringing our troops home safely, and to work on environmental issues vital to the health and well being of all of our citizens.”

“I am a strong Louisiana Democrat and I embody hard-headed determination. Early on, I learned how to say what needs to be said, even when unpopular. We all need to get involved and put our District and our Nation back on the right track, for the benefit of our families and fellow citizens.”

http://www.gildareed.com/ct-Gi…

Sounds like to me this is one Democrat we need in the Congress. Sounds like to me she would bring strong ethics with her:

Ethics rather than corruption should be expected and demanded.  The great state of Louisiana has been looked down upon too long.  It is no longer acceptable for the nation to view us as corrupt.  I want better documented funding at all levels-local, state and federal.  Business as usual is over.

Fiscal responsibility demands that the U.S. pays as it goes.  We are deeply mired in debt and we need to pull out by not charging any more.  This does not mean cutting programs for the defenseless among us.  It means managing our funds in a more equitable way and denying the tax breaks to those most able to afford more.  I disagree with a federal flat tax.  People who earn more should be required to pay more according to a progressive rate system.

I find it an ethical violation for Congress members to vote for their own pay raise and  against a minimum wage increase for working Americans.  Congress members should also be required to pay for their own retirement plans like everyone else does.

http://www.gildareed.com/page….

Hear Gilda in her own words here:

http://gildareed.com/page.php?…

Better yet, show her some love here:

http://www.gildareed.com/Call-…

Then we have my home of the First District of Kentucky, and another outstanding lady, Heather Ryan. Catch the first installment of her video diary:

There will be more to come from Heather, as soon she will be online answering questions from the blogosphere. As a veteran, she has a strong opinion on Iraq, and the treatment of our troops:

As a veteran of the United States Navy, and an active member of the American Legion, my

dedication to the men and women in uniform is unyielding.  The current service member is

highly skilled, highly trained and highly ignored by this administration.  The American people

were duped into an ill-conceived war under false pretenses and the administration continues

to over utilize a national guard system which was never intended to be used for sustained

combat missions.  Congress must insist that an exit strategy be planned and implemented

immediately.  By the Bush Administration’s own account, the nation will be forced to

reinstate the draft system again should we continue to over-tax our National Guard with

sustained combat.  I am not a supporter of reinstating the draft for as history clearly shows

us, the draft is merely for those of us who are not wealthy enough to buy our way out of

active duty.  We must not allow this ill planned and ill executed war to continue to destroy the

brave men and women in our armed forces while simultaneously placing our nation at a

heightened risk with a limited national guard.

http://www.ryanforkentucky.com…

She is facing Ed Whitfield of the powerful McConnell machine in Kentucky. She is the only Democrat that filed to challenge him. She will need our help to win.

With that in mind I started a fundraising page for her and am trying to raise $1500 for her online before the Kentucky primary she is unopposed in on May 20. Please consider helping me in that goal here:

http://www.actblue.com/page/am…

Lets support two great ladies in two races to expand our majorities!!!!!  

 

I believe we are going to elect a Democratic President this year. Voter turnouts in the primaries and caucuses so far have shown that America is simply fired up about our great Presidential candidates. Why shouldn’t they be? I mean, our party should look at pride at the candidates we put forth this year.  

I mean, men like Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, Bill Richardson, Dennis Kucinich, and even Mike Gravel are far superior to ANY candidate put forth by the other side. AND THAT WAS OUR SECOND TIER IN THIS PRIMARY!!! Then we you look at our final three, Obama, Clinton, and Edwards, you begin to realize why our party is so much more superior to the Republicans.

Our final three candidates offered hope to millions in there own way. Obama with his ability to reach out and bring new, young voters into the process and fire them up, Clinton with her toughness and resolve and determination, and Edwards with his ability to appeal to our better angels, yes ALL our candidates are far superior to anything the Republicans offered. And the voters have proven it.

Now, we are down to two awesome candidates. I think either one would be a vast improvement over the last eight years. I think too, that either one will need more than just the slim majority of seats offered in both chambers of Congress to get Progressive change enacted. We have seen that when you count Democrats that don’t always support us, we actually have a slim MINORITY for enacting Progressive Change.

We are putting a lot of stock in our Presidential candidates. The support that has been shown them is staggering. However, lets not forget the fact that even if we do succeed in electing one of these fine Democrats, which I believe we will, if we do not expand their majorities in both chambers of Congress with the kind of Democrats they will need, Democrats that will fight, their hands will be tied. We must not only give them a mandate at the polls, we must give them a mandate of expanded majorities of committed Democrats in the House and Senate to achieve the progress we want. Otherwise, we are setting ourselves up for disappointment even with a Democrat in the White House.

That is why I am pleading with you now. Here in Kentucky’s First Congressional District we have a chance to replace an established Republican from the McConnell machine with an awesome Democrat who will fight with a backbone for the policies of our new President. Heather Ryan can win this race with your support, and send a clear message to the Republican establisment that Kentucky is no longer stomping grounds, and that they will no longer impede progress in this state.

Just read why she decided to run for this seat:

I was propelled into this race when I became the victim of

a corrupt politician.  

It was after my experience that I realized that the Republican Representation

Kentucky has in Washington, D.C. is part of the “Culture of Corruption” from which

our communities are currently reeling.  

Ed Whitfield, KY-01’s current representative, is no exception.  He consistently votes

for his own financial interests, has only introduced one piece of legislation in 13 years

as Representative

(a ban on eating horse meat) and opposed SCHIP legislation which would have

increased health care benefits for poor children!

I refuse to allow a powerful few to bully me and the First Congressional District.  We

need someone who is not afraid to stand up for the rights of their constituents – not

another puppet of the rich and power hungry.

I will be a TRUE Representative for the people of Kentucky’s First District!  Not a

No-Show like “Exxon Eddie Whitfield”

Read some of the issues that matter to her:

As a veteran of the United States Navy, and an active member of the American Legion, my

dedication to the men and women in uniform is unyielding.  The current service member is

highly skilled, highly trained and highly ignored by this administration.  The American people

were duped into an ill-conceived war under false pretenses and the administration continues

to over utilize a national guard system which was never intended to be used for sustained

combat missions.  Congress must insist that an exit strategy be planned and implemented

immediately.  By the Bush Administration’s own account, the nation will be forced to

reinstate the draft system again should we continue to over-tax our National Guard with

sustained combat.  I am not a supporter of reinstating the draft for as history clearly shows

us, the draft is merely for those of us who are not wealthy enough to buy our way out of

active duty.  We must not allow this ill planned and ill executed war to continue to destroy the

brave men and women in our armed forces while simultaneously placing our nation at a

heightened risk with a limited national guard.

http://www.ryanforkentucky.com…

As a veteran, Heather will fight endlessly for real respect for our troops with more than talking points.

She also will fight for good jobs here in Western Kentucky and all over the nation, something that is sorely needed:

It is not hard to figure out that outsourcing American jobs to third world countries is

destroying our middle class.  We must stop rewarding companies who send our jobs

oversees with tax cuts and begin rewarding companies who invest in our nations future.  

As a member of a staunch union family, and a former union member myself, I understand first

hand the need for a living wage as well as benefits and training programs.  I will work

tirelessly to fight for the rights of the working person.  For far too long, the citizens of

Kentucky have been victimized by the million dollar boy’s club.  It is time for change!

http://www.ryanforkentucky.com…

Just listening to her announcment to run for Congress tells you a lot about what kind of a Congresswoman Mrs. Ryan would be:

I have lived in Kentucky’s First District my whole life. I can attest to the fact that we need someone in Congress, someone like Heather Ryan. However, as one of the poorest Congressional districts in the nation, we need help from Democrats everywhere that want to fight for the Progress expanded Congressional majorities would bring.

That is why I personally am asking for your help. I have started an ActBlue fundraising page to benefit Heather in her run for Congress. I hope to raise $1500 dollars online for her by the time our primary comes in May. She is already on the ballot in the fall since she is the only Democrat that filed in the first by the deadline.

Investing in Heather is an investment in expanded Congressional majorities. For former Edwards supporters such as myself that want to continue to fight for the ideals he presented, this is a chance to support a candidate who will embrace many of the policies of One America in the Congress, and for the supporters of Obama and Hillary this is a chance to invest in them having a Congress that will allow either one of them to achieve their agenda when elected. Folks, this young lady will fight for all of us that support the Democratic Party!!!

Please go to my page and help me to raise $1500 during the primary for an awesome candidate that is already running in the fall against an established Republican. We won’t be recieving a million dollars in special interest money like Exxon Ed Whitield, so we have to rely on fellow grassroots Democrats like all of you to win, please go here and help me towards my goal of $1500 by May 20!!!:

http://www.actblue.com/page/am…

Watch in the coming days for our first installment of Ask Heather Ryan, where Heather answers questions on video directly to the grassroots Democrats who ask them!!

Also, be sure to visit her site and sign up for email updates from the campaign here:

http://www.ryanforkentucky.com…

Please show the power that grassroots Democrats can have when they stand up together for candidates that will fight for us!! Please help me to support Heather Ryan and give her the funding she needs!!

Best wishes fellow Democrats!!

Here is Kentucky’s First Congressional District we call our Congressman Exxon Ed Whitfield. This is because he holds stock in Exxon and Chevron, but not the people of our district. Now, holding stock in itself is not wrong. Making profit and being successful is not wrong. However, when you are a Congressman that doesn’t even own a house in the district you represent, and you continually vote in the interests of your stock holdings over the people you represent, that is a problem.  

The investment in the fuels of the future could be essential to building good jobs, and re-opening plants shut down by free trade to do something new, refine the fuels of the future here in Kentucky’s First District. With our endless acres of farmland, a little investment in research could end up being very beneficial to Kentucky. We could grow the products to make bio-fuels here, and create endless high-paying jobs refining them. After all, Kentucky’s First District had a whopping poverty rate of 17.62% in 2006.

However, Exxon Eddie is far removed from those of us who live in, or just above poverty. Look at his net worth as of 2005:

From $1,402,041 to $3,658,000

http://www.opensecrets.org/pfd…

With his cushy job and personal fortune, why should he worry about the citizens of Kentucky’s First falling further behind? He doesn’t live here, and definately has plenty to fall back on. Including his stock in Exxon and Chevron:

Chevron Corp  $100,001 to $250,000  

Exxon Mobil  $100,001 to $250,000

http://www.opensecrets.org/pfd…

Now, as stated before, success is not a bad thing in America. However, lets look at how Exxon Eddie voted for Exxon instead of the citizens he represents who need investment in the fuels of the future that could give Kentucky and economic boom.

Here are some votes where Exxon Eddie supported Big Oil over the citizens of Kentucky. These started in 2003:

On April 10, 2003, the House of Representatives defeated, by a vote of 162 – 268, a proposal to require a 5 percent reduction in automotive fuel use by 2010, (which would equate roughly to an average standard of 30 miles per gallon). A YES vote (to require a reduction on fuel use) was the pro-environment vote. All of Kentucky’s representatives (Lewis, Lucas, Whitfield, Rogers, Northup, and Fletcher) voted NO.

http://www.biology.eku.edu/kos…

Of course, less fuel use means less money for Whitfield’s stock in Big Oil.

But it doesn’t end there:

On April 11, 2003, Ron Kind (D-WI) offered an amendment to the energy bill (HR 6) that would have removed harmful oil and gas drilling provisions and subsidies from the Energy Bill. The Kind amendment attempted to strike Title II from H.R. 6, which threatens special wildlands and sensitive coastal areas, exempts drilling sites from water pollution standards, and provides unnecessary Federal hand-outs to industry at the cost of the American taxpayer. Despite a recent study by the Interior Department confirming most oil (85%) and gas (88%) resources on our public lands are already available for development, this title seeks to further expedite the permitting and leasing of these resources at the expense of meaningful public involvement and environmental review. Title II of the House energy bill provides unnecessary corporate subsidies for the oil and gas industry during a time of record profits. This title also promotes the use of government funds for unnecessary studies and research that would solely benefit the oil and gas industry. In fact, the Congressional Budget Office estimates that the provisions of Title II alone will cost taxpayers $414 million over the next ten years. The Kind Amendment would have removed these harmful provisions, as well as a variety of handouts to oil and gas industry, from the energy bill but was defeated by a vote of 171 to 251. YES was the pro-environment vote. All of Kentucky’s representatives (Lewis, Lucas, Whitfield, Rogers, Northup, and Fletcher) voted NO.

http://www.biology.eku.edu/kos…

Corporate subsidies for Big Oil at a time of record profits? It is safe to assume who Whitfield voted for there, and it WASN’T the citizens of Kentucky’s First District!!

But not to worry, Exxon Eddie was watching out for the big electric utilities too:

On April 11, 2003, the U.S. House of Representatives passed an outdated, polluting energy bill (HR 6), rejecting a host of common-sense solutions and choosing instead to sacrifice the crown jewel of America’s National Wildlife Refuge system.  HR 6 continues our dependence on oil by failing to provide any significant increases in the fuel economy of cars, SUVs and other light trucks. America’s automobiles guzzle more than 8 million barrels of oil per day. HR 6 exposes consumers to more corporate fraud by rewriting the rules on electricity markets to benefit the utility industry and expose consumers to more Enron-like debacles. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has found that utility companies gouged California’s consumers by creating false electricity shortages. HR 6 provides huge subsidies on polluting industries by providing billions of dollars to polluting industries including coal, oil and nuclear. Over the next 10 years, these three industries are already scheduled to receive over $33 billion in handouts. Finally, HR 6 threatens America’s special places. By relying on destructive drilling in Western public lands, possibly including the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, and threatens sensitive coastal and marine areas. Pillaging the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge would yield less than a six-month supply of oil but would cost America our last pristine Arctic wilderness.  The Energy Bill passed 247-145. NO was the pro-environmental vote. All of Kentucky’s representatives (Lewis, Lucas, Whitfield, Rogers, Northup, and Fletcher) voted YES.

http://www.biology.eku.edu/kos…

Huge subsidies for polluting industries such as coal, oil and nuclear? Industries that already have $33 billion in subsidies scheduled? Last but not least, allowing the Oil Industries to rape one of the last remaining pristine Arctic Wildernesses for pure greed? Big Oil definately has a friend in Exxon Ed Whitfield.

It is clear as long as Exxon Ed Whitfield haunts the hallowed halls of the U.S. Congress, that he will fight against having the fuels of the future, that hold promise for our workers, and industries here in Kentucky’s First to fight for Big Oil and his stock options. He will defeat any kind of progress to create high-paying jobs in Kentucky because he is invested in the old guard and profiting handsomely from it.

So what can we do? Kentucky’s First needs to send a real Representative to Washington. A representative with union roots, that is a working person and wants to represent working people. A representative that doesn’t benefit financially when Progressive change is defeated in this country.

That representative is Heather Ryan. Mother, Navy Veteran, union supporter, and most of all, working American who knows the challenges facing those of us who scratch and claw daily to make ends meet.

We are already in the general against Exxon Ed Whitfield in the fall. Go to Heather’s site and read up on her here:

http://www.ryanforkentucky.com/

Sign up for email updates and keep up with our campaign to expand our Congressional majorities. The FISA vote shows we need as many Democrats with a backbone in the Congress as we can get. Heather is that, and would fight for us without cowardice, and without rolling over. She supports a Democratic vision for this country and does so proudly.

To win this fight however, we simply must have your help. We are up against the McConnell Republican machine here in Kentucky, which as you all know is well-funded and well-oiled. Exxon Eddie has a million dollars to spend from the Big Oil interests he so gleefully represents. We need grassroots Democrats to stand up and support us desperately. Won’t you make an investment in the future of our party and our Congress, and support a “Fighting Democrat”?

The loss of Andrew Horne in Kentucky’s Senate race has shown us that we cannot depend on the leaders of our party to support real Democrats. It has shown us that Kentucky will once again be ignored and conceded by the leaders of our party. If we want to elect grassroots Democrats who will change things, it is up to us to give them the resources they need.

I can promise you while our national party has no stomach for this fight, this grassroots Kentucky Democrat has just begun to fight. My home and neighbors are important to me, as they are to Heather Ryan. Please, go here and support this fight against Exxon Ed Whitfield and the McConnell machine and send a message to the Democratic leadership as well as Mitch McConnell. We are still itching for a fight!!!:

http://www.actblue.com/page/ry…

Don’t let the powers that be derail change in this country once again. Kossacks, lets fight for Ryan!!!!

For those who may have missed it, here is Heather announcing her run for this seat, and the reasons for it:

Please, help us!! We can win this race with national Democrats behind us!!

Candidate filing is sailing along with 5 states now having completed candidate filings. And other than a truly woeful performance by the Texas Democratic Party we are humming along.

Below the fold for details and once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.  

***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

Lots of House races now have Democratic candidates that have bobbed up in the last few weeks:

CA-25 – R+7,

FL-04 – R+16,

FL-25 – R+4,

KY-01 – R+10,

NE-02 – R+9,

SC-01 – R+10,

VA-07 – R+11,

But one more race will have an unopposed Republican incumbent in November:

KY-05 – R+8 (our candidate is running for the Senate),

So 381 races filled! This of course includes 233 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 148 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):

Districts with confirmed candidates – 148

Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 2

Districts with rumoured candidates – 17

Districts without any candidates – 28

Filing closed – No Democratic candidate – 7

The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:

AL-01 – R+12,

AL-03 – R+4,

AL-04 – R+16,

AK-AL – R+14,

AZ-01 – R+2,

AZ-02 – R+9,

AZ-03 – R+6,

AZ-06 – R+12,

AR-03 – R+11,

CA-03 – R+7,

CA-04 – R+11,

CA-21 – R+13,

CA-24 – R+5,

CA-25 – R+7,

CA-26 – R+4,

CA-40 – R+8,

CA-41 – R+9,

CA-42 – R+10,

CA-44 – R+6,

CA-45 – R+3,

CA-46 – R+6,

CA-48 – R+8,

CA-49 – R+10,

CA-50 – R+5,

CA-52 – R+9,

CO-04 – R+9,

CO-06 – R+10,

CT-04 – D+5,

DE-AL – D+7,

FL-01 – R+19,

FL-04 – R+16,

FL-05 – R+5,

FL-07 – R+3,

FL-08 – R+3,

FL-09 – R+4,

FL-10 – D+1,

FL-12 – R+5,

FL-13 – R+4,

FL-14 – R+10,

FL-15 – R+4,

FL-21 – R+6,

FL-24 – R+3,

FL-25 – R+4,

GA-01 – R+?,

GA-09 – R+?,

GA-10 – R+?,

ID-01 – R+19,

IL-06 – R+2.9,

IL-10 – D+4,

IL-11 – R+1.1,

IL-13 – R+5,

IL-14 – R+5,

IL-15 – R+6,

IL-16 – R+4,

IL-19 – R+8,

IN-03 – R+16,

IN-04 – R+17,

IN-06 – R+11,

IA-04 – D+0,

IA-05 – R+8,

KS-01 – R+20,

KS-04 – R+12,

KY-01 – R+10,

KY-02 – R+12.9,

KY-04 – R+11.7,

LA-01 – R+18,

LA-06 – R+7,

MD-01 – R+10,

MD-06 – R+13,

MI-02 – R+9,

MI-04 – R+3,

MI-07 – R+2,

MI-09 – R+0,

MI-11 – R+1.2,

MN-02 – R+2.7,

MN-03 – R+0.5,

MN-06 – R+5,

MO-02 – R+9,

MO-06 – R+5,

MO-07 – R+14,

MO-09 – R+7,

MS-01 – R+10,

MS-03 – R+14,

NE-02 – R+9,

NV-03 – D+1,

NJ-03 – D+3.3,

NJ-04 – R+0.9,

NJ-05 – R+4,

NJ-07 – R+1,

NJ-11 – R+6,

NM-01 – D+2,

NM-02 – R+6,

NY-13 – D+1,

NY-23 – R+0.2,

NY-25 – D+3,

NY-26 – R+3,

NY-29 – R+5,

NC-03 – R+15,

NC-05 – R+15,

NC-06 – R+17,

NC-08 – R+3,

NC-09 – R+12,

NC-10 – R+15,

OH-01 – R+1,

OH-02 – R+13,

OH-03 – R+3,

OH-04 – R+14,

OH-05 – R+10,

OH-07 – R+6,

OH-08 – R+12,

OH-12 – R+0.7,

OH-14 – R+2,

OH-15 – R+1,

OH-16 – R+4,

OK-05 – R+12,

PA-03 – R+2,

PA-05 – R+10,

PA-06 – D+2.2,

PA-09 – R+15,

PA-15 – D+2,

PA-16 – R+11,

PA-18 – R+2,

SC-01 – R+10,

TX-03 – R+17,

TX-04 – R+17,

TX-06 – R+15,

TX-07 – R+16,

TX-08 – R+20,

TX-10 – R+13,

TX-12 – R+14,

TX-13 – R+18,

TX-19 – R+25,

TX-24 – R+15,

TX-26 – R+12,

TX-31 – R+15,

TX-32 – R+11,

VA-02 – R+5.9,

VA-05 – R+6,

VA-06 – R+11,

VA-07 – R+11,

VA-10 – R+5,

VA-11 – R+1,

WA-04 – R+13,

WA-08 – D+2,

WV-02 – R+5,

WI-01 – R+2,

WI-06 – R+5,

WY-AL – R+19,

The following GOP held districts have a candidate that is expected to run but is yet to confirm:

FL-18 – R+4,

MT-AL – R+11,

The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!

AL-02 – R+13,

FL-06 – R+8,

GA-03 – R+?,

GA-06 – R+?,

GA-07 – R+?,

GA-11 – R+?,

IL-18 – R+5.5,

LA-04 – R+7,

NE-03 – R+23.6,

NV-02 – R+8.2,

NJ-02 – D+4.0,

NY-03 – D+2.1,

OK-03 – R+18,

OK-04 – R+13,

SC-04 – R+15,

TN-07 – R+12,

UT-03 – R+22,

The following districts have not a single rumoured candidate:

AL-06 – R+25,

CA-02 – R+13,

CA-19 – R+10,

CA-22 – R+16,

CO-05 – R+15.7,

ID-02 – R+19,

IN-05 – R+20,

LA-05 – R+10,

LA-07 – R+7,

MI-03 – R+9,

MI-06 – R+2.3,

MI-08 – R+1.9,

MI-10 – R+4,

MO-08 – R+11,

NE-01 – R+11,

OK-01 – R+13,

OR-02 – R+11,

PA-19 – R+12,

SC-02 – R+9,

SC-03 – R+14,

TN-01 – R+14,

TN-02 – R+11,

TN-03 – R+8,

UT-01 – R+26,

VA-01 – R+9,

VA-04 – R+5,

WA-05 – R+7.1,

WI-05 – R+12,

And last but not least the list I did not want to have to include.

The following Republicans will not have a Democratic opponent in 2008:

KY-05 – R+8

TX-01 – R+17,

TX-02 – R+12,

TX-05 – R+16,

TX-11 – R+25,

TX-14 – R+14,

TX-21 – R+13,

Finally due praise to those states where we already have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia and Wyoming.

It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in Colorado, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, Nevada, Montana, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington and Wisconsin. Thats 23 states with a full slate, and 15 states with one race to fill! And then there is Kentucky where filing has finished leaving 1 vacancy. That is more than 3/4 of the states with a full or nearly full slate of candidates 8 1/2 months before election day, an impressive feat indeed!

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see candidates in AZ-06, CA-42, FL-12, LA-06, MS-03, VA-06 and WI-06; 7 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006! Of the other 3 TX-11 will again go uncontested whilst VA-04 and AL-06 do not currently have Democratic candidates.

We were on track to beat the 425 races we contested in 2006 but with the Texas debacle it now seems unlikely.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

As an Edwards supporter, I was extremely disappointed to see my candidate leave the race for the Democratic nomination. However, as many of us have stated, our fight has just begun. We are as determined as ever to keep the message of One America alive. To do this, we simply must support candidates who believe in the message of creating One America, and support Democrats who will fight with a backbone in Congress.

One such candidate is Heather Ryan, Democrat in Kentucky’s First Congressional District. Heather is running to expand our majority in the Congress by unseating Exxon Ed Whitfield. She is a proud, Fighting Democrat who served her country honorably during the Gulf War. She also supports policies to create One America. Here she is speaking on the need for Universal Healthcare:

It is an absolute travesty that 50 million Americans struggle without health care in the

wealthiest nation in the world.  What’s worse is when our representative votes against

improvements in access to health services for children and the poor.  Unfortunately, these are

both realities that we’ve experienced under the current leadership.  I propose that health

care for every American is more important than tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy.  

It is time we had a representative who thinks about more than just how much money he can

make when he helps pass legislation that benefits drug and insurance companies.  As the

leaders of the free world, it is an embarrassment that we are the only industrialized nation

that does not offer health care for our citizens.

More importantly, Ryan would continue the work of making our government accountable to the people, not the Corporations:

The Budget Reconciliation Bill, signed by President Bush and passed by Congress, cut future

spending for Medicare, Medicaid, Student Loans and even free and reduced lunches for poor

children; all while giving a $2.3 Billion tax break to Oil Companies and affording a $5.7 billion

slush fund to Pharmaceutical Companies (both of which Representative Ed Whitfield has

personal financial investments and large campaign contributions).  Corporate welfare for

profitable companies who donate heavily to Congressmen is corrupt and scandalous.  I will

work diligently against the culture of corruption which permeates the political system.

Our fight for One America WILL continue. Now however, it must continue on the grassroots level by supporting Democrats running for Congress that will have a backbone and stand up for us. Heather Ryan is such a Democrat, and will continue the work we started on the grassroots level.

Will you help us by supporting Heather Ryan? We need Democrats everywhere to help us fight against the millions dollars of special interest money Exxon Eddie has amassed. Please join our campaign and sign up for email updates at the bottom of the screen here:

http://www.ryanforkentucky.com…

More importantly, please make an investment in the expansion of our Congressional majority, and the electing of Democrats with a backbone that seek to create One America here:

http://actblue.com/page/ryanfo…

We cannot forget the awesome Democrats who seek to fight for us from the ground up!!

 

Whilst almost all of the blogospheres attention has been focused on the Presidentials great things have been happening in the House. Below the fold to see the Democratic hits and misses in vulnerable Repub districts as well as a large number of retiring Repub incumbents in vulnerable districts also …………..

Once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.

I thought it was time to have a look at the GOP House districts that generically lean Democratic or only slightly lean Republican to see how we are faring so far this cycle.

So here they are ranked in order of Cook PVI number every GOP district up to PVI R+5.9. Without further ado:

1) DE-AL – D+6.5,

The most Democratic House district occupied by a Republican has been a disappointment candidate wise. All of the declared candidates are at best 2nd tier. The conventional wisdom seems to be that this district is Castle’s as long as he wants it. ***sigh***

This is one of 8 Districts that voted for Kerry with a Repub incumbent.

2) CT-04 – D+5,

The last House Republican in New England is facing the latest in a long line of challenging contests; one that we all hope he loses against top tier candidate Jim Himes.

This is one of 8 Districts that voted for Kerry with a Repub incumbent.

3) NJ-02 – D+4.0,

Surprisingly no confirmed Democratic candidate here yet. Did you know that Democrats won every State Senate district in this CD in 2007? That included winning one open GOP district and the defeat of a GOP sitting Senator!

IMHO potential Democratic candidates are waiting to see if State Sen Jeff Van Drew declares. If he does this one becomes a barn burner if not then LoBiondo probably lives to fight another day. ***Watch this space***

4) IL-10 – D+4,

2006 candidate and netroots hero Dan Seals is back for a rematch. Assuming he survives the primary, watch this one rage. Interestingly this district takes in part of Cook County with its fearsome Democratic machine. Unfortunately the Repub incumbent Kirk has more money fundraised than any other GOP incumbent this cycle. OTOH imagine this race if Obama is the nominee.  

This is one of 8 Districts that voted for Kerry with a Repub incumbent.

5) NY-25 – D+3.4, OPEN RACE

Walsh has announced his retirement, 2006 candidate Dan Maffei is back for another go and to avenge his less than 4000 vote loss (He won 2 out of 4 counties). With Democrats picking up Repub districts in NY in 5 of the last 6 cycles chalk this one up as a gonna win for team blue.

This is one of 8 Districts that voted for Kerry with a Repub incumbent.

6) NJ-03 – D+3.3, OPEN RACE

Saxton is retiring and we got our first choice of candidate State Sen John Adler who announced before Saxton pulled the pin. This district voted 51% for Bush in 2004 and that won’t happen again and the Repubs are on the way to an ugly primary. Another blue state pick up for team blue.

7) NM-01 – D+2.4, OPEN RACE

Wilson is off to try and run for the senate and we look like having a big primary however this is one of 8 Districts that voted for Kerry with a Repub incumbent and we only missed out by 900 votes last time. There are 40000 more registered Dems than Repubs so count this one as a win for team blue.

8) PA-06 – D+2.2,

Two declared candidates who are like options 14 and 15 for the party this one has been a massive disappointment. Like DE-AL this one seems to be Gerlach’s for as long as he wants it.

This is one of 8 Districts that voted for Kerry with a Repub incumbent.

***Another sigh***

9) NY-03 – D+2.1,

Amazingly not a Dem candidate to be seen in what may be the most Repub district in NY which is akin to being the heaviest light beer. In an ideal world State Rep David Bishop or Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi would run but don’t hold your breath for it to happen in 2008. Interestingly this district is the last of the GOP bastions on Long Island the 1st, 2nd, 4th and 5th all moving into the Dem column over the last 10 years.

Don’t hold your breath over this one in 2008.

10) WA-08 – D+2,

2006 candidate Darcy Burner is back for a rematch and Reicherts fundraising has been anemic making me wonder if he will retire! BTW Burner has almost twice as much cash on hand as Reichert. Simple equation here – If Burner wins in King (Seattle) County by more than Reichert wins Pierce County then she wins the District. 2700 votes was the margin last time.

This is one of 8 Districts that voted for Kerry with a Repub incumbent.

Hot Hot race!

11) PA-15 – D+2,

Definitely a race to watch as Sam Bennett has generated some netroots buzz and is a prolific fundraiser. In 2006 Dent only managed 53% against an underfunded last minute candidate who had to run in the primary as a write in to get on the ballot.

This is one of 8 Districts that voted for Kerry with a Repub incumbent.

Dent is very vulnerable.

12) FL-10 – D+1.1,

Simple dynamic going on here if Young runs he wins if he retires team blue will pile in and win (See also PA-06 & DE-AL). Young has said he will run but methinks not as his fundraising has been truly terrible (less than 10k last quarter!)

One third tier candidate in for us but watch them pile in when and if Young retires.

13) NV-03 – D+1.0,

Another race not getting the oxygen it should. Daskas seems to be the real deal and raised over 200k last quarter.

Bush got less than 50% here in 2004 and there are slightly more registered Dems than Repubs.

14) NY-13 – D+1,

More registered Dems than Repubs in this district not surprisingly. 2 second tier candidates declared so far but the conventional wisdom is that we need a candidate from Staten Island rather than Brooklyn. Unfortunately to this point all 3 of the Dem State Reps and Senators from the island have stayed out.

Interestingly Recchia raised more than 200K last quarter so this one could yet get competitive.

15) IA-04 – D+0.4,

This race has an oddly low profile given how pro Dem it is. Admittedly the attention has been on the 1st and 2nd until now but we won them both in 2006. One 3rd tier candidate running in a year where either Dem pres candidate will win Iowa against McCain. Latham only got 57% in 2006 and is very vulnerable if we can find a decent candidate. Spencer has only 60K COH too.

16) MI-09 – R+0,

3 great candidates in a district that gave Bush only just 50% in a state where our House representation is definitely underdone (6 out of 15). Will 2008 finally be the year when a Repub district flips and will it be the 9th? Only time will tell. One of 3 districts targetted by us this year in Michigan.

17) NY-23 – R+0.2,

Another GOP incumbent safe until he retires even some unions endorsed McHugh in 2006. Only declared candidate is 3rd tier Crummy website and poor fundraising) so nothing to see here move right along. UNLESS – Given that McHugh only raised 40K last quarter and has 200k on hand we must wonder if he will retire. If he does watch for us to pile in and pick up the district because Bush got 51% in 2004 here and because nobody is better at winning open GOP congressional House districts than the New York Democratic Party!

18) MN-03 – R+0.5, OPEN RACE

Ramstad is out and we got the candidate we wanted in State Senator Terri Bonoff. This district gave Bush 51% in 2004 and in 2008 minnesota will have a competitive senate race and should go blue for the Prez. Count this one as a win for team blue.

19) NJ-07 – R+0.6, OPEN RACE

Ferguson is out and Stender is back for another go having won 2/4 counties in 2006 and losing by only 3300 votes. The GOP is heading into a monster primary with 8 declared candidates allready. Count this one in for team blue.

20) VA-11 – R+0.6, OPEN RACE

The retirement of Davis has ensured that this district will flip. Located in Nthn Virginia which is rapidly trending Dem and with fmr Gvr Warner on the Senate ticket any one of the 3 Dems could win this one. Gave Bush a mere 50% in 2004. Count this one as a win for team blue.

21) OH-12 – R+0.7,

Personally I believe that Ohio will be ground zero in November but not in OH-12. All of the attention will be on the open races in the neighbouring 15th as well as the 16th. 3 second tier candidates here for us means that this 51% 2004 Bush District won’t be flipping in 2008 a real recruiting miss this.

22) NJ-04 – R+0.9,

An unfortunate recruitment miss pits a 3rd tier candidate against an entrenched incumbent. This district gave Bush 56% of the vote in 2004 and with competitive races in the 3rd and 7th and probably the 2nd there won’t be any excitement here on election night.

23) OH-01 – R+1,

This race is one of 4 barnburners in Ohio. We got the candidate we wanted in Steve Driehaus and he has 400K+ COH all of which will make this district one to watch on election night. Bush won this one by less than a point in 2004 and if we win Ohio this year then I think we win OH-01!

24) IL-11 – R+1.1, OPEN RACE

Weller is out and we and State Sen Majority leader Halvorson is absolutely top tier. She had about 400K COH in mid January and has raised at least another 70K since then. Despite the fact that this district gave Bush 53% in 2004 it will be flipping Dem in 08, particularly if Obama is the nominee. Count this one as a win for team blue.

25) OH-15 – R+1.1, OPEN RACE

Pryce is out and Kilroy is back to avenge her 1062 vote loss in 2006. She has 638K COH! in a district which Bush won by less than 1% in 2004. Count this one as a win for team blue.

26) MI-11 – R+1.2,

Another Michigan swing district and one of 3 districts targetted by us this year in Michigan. Both of our canidates are 3rd tier and this one won’t be flipping depsite only giving Bush 52% in 2004 and McCotter 54% in 2006. A frustrating miss at this point.

27) MI-08 – R+1.9,

We don’t even have a rumoured let alone confirmed candidate here. Need I say more?

28) PA-03 – R+2,

A definite recruiting miss here this time out. 4 2nd tier candidates running with only reporting more than 100K cash on hand (English has in excess of 500K). Bush got 53% here in 2004 and English was held to 53% in 2006 by Porter who stupidly is running again as an independent thsu making it unlikely that this rece will flip. It will be interesting to assess this race agian post primary.

29) PA-18 – R+2,

A sleeper race this one IMHO. We have 5 Dems running in the primary so something must be going on here and it seems that our presumed top tier candidate is a very poor fundraiser as are all 5 of our guys. Wait for this race to evolve in the next few months; it could get hot or disapear without a trace.

30) OH-14 – R+2,

Well we got the candidate we wanted in O’Neill and in a district that only gave Bush 52.5% in 2004 so why isn’t this one top tier? Because there are 4 other competitive races in Repub districts in Ohio and also because O’Neill’s fundraising is lacklustre (71K last quarter). Which is a real shame because under other circumstances this could be a marquee race. Hope O’Neill runs again in 2010.

31) MI-07 – R+2,

At this stage this looks to be the only competitive race in Michigan in 2008 (although this could change). And it will be a barnburner. Kept below 50% in 2006 and facing at least 3 great Democratic candidates Walberg may yet still face a primary challenge from his Repub predecessor Joe Schwarz. This is definitely one race to watch.

32) AZ-01 – R+2.2, OPEN RACE

BARNBURNER Renzi has been on Democratic target list for ywars and now he has retired. Watch for a monster primary on our side although i expect top tier candidate State Rep Anne Kirkpatrick to be our nominee. She has BTW about 300K COH. If McCain is the Repub nominee this one will be tough but if not watch out for a great race.

33) MI-06 – R+2.3,

We don’t even have a rumoured let alone confirmed candidate here. Need I say more?

34) MN-02 – R+2.7,

An intriguing race developing in this district. Our candidate Sarvi is top tier he got back from his 2nd or 3rd tour of duty in Iraq and declared his candidacy. Whilst his fundraising is a problem keep an eye on this one on election night Bush got 54% in 2004 but I reckon that if we win the MN Senate race we will win the 2nd also.

A dark horse race.

35) IL-06 – R+2.9,

Great embarrassment to Rahm Emanuel that we didn’t win this one in 2006 we are running another Iraq war vet. Unfortunately this one doesn’t have any money (40K as of mid Jan COH) and her primary opponent hasn’t filed with the FEC.

So two third tier candidates (go check the district blogs) means that this district is staying Repub this year. Let’s face it if we couldn’t win the open race in 2006 we won’t win in 2008 even if Obama is the nominee. Consider as well that there will be 2-4 competitive races elsewhere in Illinois.

36) OH-03 – R+3,

All 3 of the democratic candidates declared in the last 6 weeks and none is top tier. Too much action in other districts for this one to be competitive this time. Another recruiting miss.

37) FL-08 – R+3,

There will be a large number of competitive House races in Florida this year, maybe as many as 8! Whilst the 8th hasn’t received much attention yet it probably will. Amongst a group of 2nd tier candidates are a couple that could make this race competitive including one (Smith) who raised more than 100K last quarter and has 271K COH. And when you consider that Keller was held to 53% in 2006 and Bush only got 55% in 2004 and you have the makings of a great race. Watch this space.

38) NC-08 – R+3,

Kissell is back to avenge his 329 vote loss. He raised about 95K last quarter and should get some DCCC assisitance this time around.

Definitely one to watch on election night.

39) MI-04 – R+3,

Our candidate is second tier at best so this 54% Bush 2004 district will not be overly competitive in 2008. The attention in Michigan will be focused on CD’s 7 & 9 anyway.

40) CA-45 – R+3.2,

On paper this district should be competitive but no first tier candidate has emerged. The three 2nd tier candidates have not fundraised much and won’t be making this 56% Bush district competitive in 2008.

41) FL-24 – R+3,

3 candidates including fmr State Rep Suzanne Kosmas are running here. Kosmas has fundraised some 350K in 3 months and was heavily wooed by the party to run 2006 candidate Clint Curtis held Feeney to 58% in this 55% Bush district. Who knows what he could achieve in 2008 if he is the nominee. This race may get some traction and be terribly competitive or it may not. Wait and see  

42) NY-26 – R+3.5,

A sleeper race. We came close to knocking Reynolds in 2006 (52/48) and we have a much better candidate this time in Iraq veteran Jon Powers who has about 200K cash on hand. This one may fire up or fizzle.

43) OH-16 – R+4, OPEN RACE

Regula is retiring and we got our candidate of choice in Boccieri who has some 300K+ COH, twice the amount of his lead opponent. Bush got 53% here in 2004. Watch this one on election night if we don’t win this then Clinton or Obama don’t win Ohio IMHO.

44) FL-09 – R+4,

Held to 56% in 2006 Bilirakis could be in for a competitive race again this time with either Dicks or Mitchell set to campaign up a storm. Mitchell has 100K+ on hand and Dicks has 300K+ on hand. Like the 24th wait and see if this one lights up.

45) CA-26 – R+4,

Personally I think this district is a sleeper race. Netroots favourite  Warner is back to avenge his primary loss in 2006 and is sitting on 239K COH! With a dearth of competitive races in California this time (2) this race could really take off if things are going well for us on election night.

46) AL-03 – R+4,

A rare target for Dems in the south but unfortunately it looks like all of the attention will be focused on the open race in the 2nd where Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright looks like being a top tier recruit leaving the 3rd to languish in obscurity for this cycle.

47) IL-16 – R+4,

Our candidate Robert Abboud is a nuclear engineer which is pretty cool. Despite that he won’t be winning this 55% Bush district with only 40k odd COH, particularly with other competitive house races in Illinois.

48) FL-13 – R+4,

This race has never really ended and will be a barnburner this year. Jennings is running again and will self fund so we will see if the voting machines malfunction again.

49) FL-15 – R+4, OPEN RACE

Welson’s retirement means that a top tier Dem will get into the race. Is that Dem Higgs? Who knows. Watch this space to see how this race develops.

50) FL-18 – R+4,

The first of the three districts held by Cuban-Americans who are being challenged by yep Cuban-Americans. Whilst this one is the least likely of the three to be competitive it has the makings of a monster free for all. Watch this space in this 54% Bush district.

51) NJ-05 – R+4,

2 Second tier candidates here although Shulman has the potential to make this a competitive race having raised 140K last quarter and with an interesting life story to say the least (he is a blind rabbi). Unfortunately Bush got 57% here in 2004 and with 2 or 3 other competitive races in New Jersey I suspect that this one will struggle to get oxygen.

52) MI-10 – R+4,

We don’t even have a rumoured let alone confirmed candidate here. Need I say more?

53) FL-07 – R+4.1,

There may be lots of competitive House races in Florida this cycle but the 7th won’t be one of them. Two second tier candidates running that won’t flip this district.

54) FL-25 – R+4.4,

The second of the Cuban American districts this one will be a hoot as two political heavy weights duke it out. This one should be one to watch.

55) IL-14 – R+4.8,

Hard to handicap this 55% Bush district. We have good solid candidates with variable fundraising performances. Probably best to await the outcome of the special election in March and then examine this race then.

56) MO-06 – R+4.8,

With our top tier candidate Kay Barnes and an open Gubernatorial race this one will be a barn burner. Keep an eye on this one on election night.

57) CA-24 – R+4.8,

Will Gallegly try to retire again like he did in 2006? If so this might become competitive as there are a couple of decent 2nd tier candidates on our side. May be competitive but probably won’t be.

58) VA-04 – R+5,

We don’t even have a rumoured let alone confirmed candidate here, and we didn’t run a candidate here in 2006 at all.

Need I say more?

59) CA-50 – R+5,

Despite the enthusiasm of Leibham (187K COH) in particular I can’t help but htink that our best chance to nab this district was in the special election in 2006.

60) FL-12 – R+5,

Like the 7th this one won’t be providing any shocks on election night unfortunately. Reasonable 2nd tier candidate but nothing to see here.

61) IL-13 – R+5,

Our 3rd tier candidate has raised about 40K so far this cycle so don’t expect this race to hot up. An understandable recruiting miss given all of the open and/or competitive races in Illinois this time.

62) MN-06 – R+5,

About 4 months ago the Minnesota Democratic party were bullish that they could win all 3 Repub districts in Minnesota. I hope they are right but think they are worng. Both our candidates have about 100K in the bank but if this one couldn’t be won as an open race in 2006 it won’t be won in 2008. Watch the 3rd and 2nd not the 6th.

63) WV-02 – R+5,

Unger is out but Barth is in so wait and see how this one shakes out could be a fizzer or a firestorm. 57% Bush district.

64) WI-01 – R+2,

A couple of potentially decent 2nd tier candidates here who need to lift their fundraising game. This district only went 53% for Bush in 2004. But this race has yet to gain any traction. Will it do so? Who knows? This the most likely GOP district in Wisconsin to flip to us however, so wait and see.

65) WI-06 – R+5,

56% Bush district, Petri unopposed in 2006 and a 3rd tier candidate. Sound like a recipe for success? No I didn’t think so either.

66) FL-05 – R+5.1,

Third tier candidate means that this congressional district won’t be providing any joy in 2008.

67) NY-29 – R+5.2,

Massa almost nailed Kuhl in 2006 (52/48) and is back for another shot. In arguably the most Republican district in NY this one will be a tight race with Massa the strongest possible candidate we could have running.

68) VA-10 – R+5.3,

Whilst Bush got 55% here in 2004 and Wolf got 57% in 2006 don’t yet write this one off. With the coattails from the senate race this one may be winnable particularly given that 2006 challenger Judy Feder is back and has almost 500k COH! If we do well in the house on election night this one could well flip whilst everyone os focused on the 11th.

69) IL-18 – R+5.5, OPEN RACE

Don’t yet have a candidate as our guy Versace quit the race after filing closed. The Dem county chairs will appoint a candidate after the primary but don’t expect them to win even if Obama is our nominee.

70) NM-02 – R+5.7, OPEN RACE

A slew of democratic candidates running here and the open senate race has NM Dems talking up our chances here with some justification. If McCain is the repub nominee then forget it but otherwise our 40,000 registration advantage might us over the line in this 57% 2004 Bush district.

71) VA-02 – R+5.9,

Businessman and political rookee Glenn Nye is our candidate and he is keen but 2nd tier. This one won’t be flipping on election night and has been a real recruiting miss as our first choice declined the opportunity. 57% Bush district in 2004.