NY-20: Gillibrand Impresses

At first glance, of the three House Democratic freshmen from New York, Kirsten Gillibrand might seem like a compelling target for Republicans.  Her district, New York’s 20th, delivered its votes to Bush by an 8-point margin in 2004, and by 7 points in 2000.  And, with an advantage of over 80,000 voters in 2006, the 20th district has one of the most favorable voter registration balances for Republicans in New York.  However, as we’ve all seen for over 20 years (the last six especially), the definition of “Republican” has changed, and many of this district’s voters are in the midst of a fundamental identity change.

Politicians like Kirsten are at the forefront of this shift, and she has already made all the right moves to put herself in the strongest possible position for her first re-election campaign after defeating the scandal-plagued John Sweeney last November.  Aside from raising a very impressive $668,000 in the first quarter of 2007, she’s also been very successful in making headlines for all the right reasons: namely, an incredibly energetic delivery of services to her constituents.  Just take this remarkable letter to the editor in the Albany Times-Union, written by a former Sweeney aide.  Allow me to reproduce it in full, because it really captures the essence of the 20th’s new Democratic (big-d and small-d) representation:

As a former aide to John Sweeney while he was in the Pataki administration, I must say what a tremendous job Kirsten Gillibrand is doing. She is the most accessible politician in the region. Every weekend, she is somewhere in the 20th Congressional District, letting us know exactly where she stands on issues and why, which is a refreshing change. I’m sure we all have stories about experiences we have had dealing with Rep. Gillibrand, but I feel compelled to tell you about mine.

Last month, Rep. Gillibrand asked me to serve on her Veterans Advisory Committee. Being a veteran and still involved in politics, I decided to accept her invitation to a meeting at the State Military Museum in Saratoga Springs.

I figured I would see the usual political maneuver in which the politician walks through the room, shakes a couple of hands, gets a picture with a leading area vet, says how hard she is fighting for us in Washington and then is whisked out of the room, all in a matter of minutes.

What happened could not have been further from this. Rep. Gillibrand went to the podium, disconnected the microphone, walked to the vet seated nearest her, gave him the microphone, sat down, opened a notebook, got out a pen and asked, “What do you want me to do as your representative in Congress?” I have to tell you, I was astonished.

Rep. Gillibrand sat there for 2 1/2 hours, listening as we passed the microphone from person to person. She asked questions, gave opinions and answers, and took down personal contact information if she did not have an answer, promising to call us back.

Our district could not have asked for a better person to serve us. If she keeps this up, she will be our representative for life.

GREG MIHALKO

Stephentown

Yep, public service like that sure beats Sweeney’s frat boy antics of years past.

Race Tracker: NY-20

PA-06: Jim Gerlach’s $120,000 Gaffe

While we noted in our round-up that Republican Jim Gerlach of Pennsylvania’s 6th district finished the first quarter of 2007 having raised $213,000 and holding $107,000 cash-on-hand, we didn’t take into account this golden blunder in the calculus:

The Federal Election Commission has fined Rep. Jim Gerlach’s campaign committee $120,000 for filing inaccurate financial disclosure reports in 2004 and 2005, an unusually large penalty that puts a significant dent in the lawmaker’s re-election coffers.

The commission, in announcing the fine Wednesday, said the 6th District Republican’s campaign over-reported its contributions by $2.2 million in several of its quarterly statements during the two years, and misreported about $9,000 in refunded donations in late 2005. It also said Gerlach failed to itemize $9,000 worth of contributions in his 2004 year-end report.

The fine, which commissioners voted 5-0 to assess as part of an agreement with Gerlach’s campaign to close the case, is the third largest issued against a sitting U.S. lawmaker since 1980, according to the FEC. It resulted from a complaint filed in 2005 by Gerlach’s opponent in the past two elections, Democrat Lois Murphy.

[…]

The fine, though, does mean Gerlach is already about $300,000 behind where he was at this period in the last election cycle, when he raised nearly $400,000 in the first quarter of the year. He and Murphy ended up waging one of the most expensive congressional races in the country.

So Gerlach essentially returns to square one.  It may be schadenfreude, but… I can’t resist: ha-ha!

Race Tracker: PA-06

CA-45, NM-01, NY-25, NY-29, NV-02, IL-15: House Incumbents Hit Hard on Iraq

Hot on the heels of their hard-hitting ads against Republican Senators McConnell (KY), Collins (ME) and Sununu (NH), Americans United For Change is setting its sights on four Republican House incumbents: Heather Wilson (NM-01), Jim Walsh (NY-25), Dean Heller (NV-02), and Tim Johnson (IL-15):

AUFC picked an interesting mix of incumbents here.  While Walsh and Wilson will be two huge Democratic targets next year, Johnson and Heller are completely out of left field.  Raise your hands if you even knew that the Republicans had their own Tim Johnson.  Yeah, I thought so.

As far as an “expanding the playing field” type of move, I remain skeptical that Heller’s district will come into play next year.  At a PVI of R+8.2, the only reason this district was competitive last year was due to its open seat status, a feisty Republican primary, and Democrat Jill Derby’s strengths.  I’m not anticipating that any of these factors will re-emerge in 2008, and I doubt that a top-shelf challenger will emerge.  If I were in charge of these ad buys, I would have gone after Republican Jon Porter in nearby NV-03, whose D+1.0 district and out-of-the-mainstream views on Iraq make his district ripe for another aggressive challenge.

As for Johnson, his Illinois district went to Bush by 11 and 18 point margins in 2000 and 2004, respectively.  I would be surprised if anything happened here, but at least Mr. Johnson will have to feel some deserved heat on Iraq.  Hopefully his ass will get redistricted into oblivion in a few years.

UPDATE: AUFC is also going after Randy Kuhl (NY-29) and Mary Bono (CA-45).

1Q Fundraising Round-Up

(Bumped. – promoted by James L.)

UPDATE: I just added new numbers for John Doolittle and Charlie Brown in CA-04. It was a pleasant surprise to see Brown pull in nearly $89,000 during the first quarter–a number made more impressive when you stack it against the totals raised by other rematch-seekers (Eric Massa, Darcy Burner, Mary Jo Kilroy, Larry Kissell, et cetera). I also added Ric Keller (FL-08), whose $27K report shouldn’t chase off a strong challenger from emerging to this underperforming incumbent. More new names: Ciro Rodriguez (TX-23), Blumenauer & DeFazio (OR-03 & OR-04), Hayes & Kissell (NC-08), and John McHugh (NY-23).


Now that the two week deadline for House and Senate campaigns to file their first quarter fundraising reports has passed, let’s round up all reports that we’ve logged here, here, here, and here–and add a whole bunch more for good measure.

First, a few Senate numbers:














































































District Candidate Party 1Q Raised Cash-on-Hand
CO-Sen Mark Udall* D $324K $1.54m
LA-Sen Mary Landrieu D-inc. $1.02m $1.8m
ME-Sen Tom Allen* D $393K $812K
MN-Sen Norm Coleman R-inc. $1.5m $2.8m
MN-Sen Al Franken D $1.35m $1.1m
MT-Sen Max Baucus D-inc. $1.1m $2.9m
NC-Sen Elizabeth Dole R-inc. $1.7m $1.5m
NH-Sen Steve Marchand D $100k (n/a)
NH-Sen Katrina Swett D $462K $443K
VA-Sen John Warner R-inc. $500 $667K

(*Denotes numbers filed for House campaign accounts, which will be transferred over to their soon to be formed Senate accounts.)

It’s great to see Tom Allen nearly doubling his war chest during the first three months of the year, and it’s even better to know what Mark Udall’s $1.5 million must be doing to the psyche of his Republican competition in Colorado.

Next up, we have lotsa noteworthy new numbers from House incumbents and challengers (but mostly incumbents). All of these figures were taken from FEC’s E-Filing Report Retrieval page:

























































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































District Candidate Party 1Q Raised Cash-on-Hand
AZ-01 Rick Renzi R-inc. $118K $81K
AZ-05 Harry Mitchell D-inc. $235K $223K
AZ-08 Gabby Giffords D-inc. $320K $415K
CA-04 John Doolittle R-inc. $128K $91K
CA-04 Charlie Brown D $89K $136K
CA-11 Jerry McNerney D-inc. $347K $297K
CA-11 Richard Pombo R -$825 $35K
CO-04 Marilyn Musgrave R-inc. $247K $268K
CT-02 Joe Courtney D-inc. $307K $287K
CT-05 Chris Murphy D-inc. $420K $448K
DE-AL Mike Castle R-inc. $96K $1.21m
FL-08 Ric Keller R-inc. $27K $153K
FL-10 Bill “C.W.” Young R-inc. $15K $434K
FL-13 Vernon Buchanan R-inc. $462K $280K
FL-13 Christine Jennings D $236K $49K
FL-16 Tim Mahoney D-inc. $458K $439K
FL-22 Ron Klein D-inc. $611K $533K
GA-08 Jim Marshall D-inc. $125K $353K
GA-12 John Barrow D-inc. $252K $506K
IA-04 Tom Latham R-inc. $143K $215K
IA-05 Steve King R-inc. $16K $21K
ID-01 Bill Sali R-inc. $87K $70K
IN-02 Joe Donnelly D-inc. $342K $264K
IN-08 Brad Ellsworth D-inc. $228K $216K
KS-02 Nancy Boyda D-inc. $137K $171K
KS-02 Jim Ryun R $171K $256K
KY-03 John Yarmuth D-inc. $304K $293K
LA-06 Richard Baker R-inc. $94K $66K
MI-07 Tim Walberg R-inc. $136K $160K
MI-09 Joe Knollenberg R-inc. $262K $280K
MN-01 Tim Walz D-inc. $187K $156K
MN-06 Michelle Bachmann R-inc. $259K $200K
MT-AL Denny Rehberg R-inc. $76K $300K
NC-08 Robin Hayes R-inc. $150K $176K
NC-08 Larry Kissell D $12K $469
NH-01 Carol Shea-Porter D-inc. $107K $128K
NH-01 Jeb Bradley R-inc. $7K $64K
NH-02 Paul Hodes D-inc. $248K $203K
NM-01 Heather Wilson R-inc. $274K $250K
NM-02 Steve Pearce R-inc. $114K $196K
NM-03 Tom Udall D-inc. $1,600 $713K
NV-03 Jon Porter R-inc. $234K $235K
NY-13 Vito Fossella R-inc. $133K $83K
NY-19 John Hall D-inc. $341K $342K
NY-20 Kirsten Gillibrand D-inc. $668K $552K
NY-23 John McHugh R-inc. $51K $111K
NY-25 Jim Walsh R-inc. $105K $132K
NY-26 Tom Reynolds R-inc. $238K $356K
NY-29 Randy Kuhl R-inc. $93K $104K
NY-29 Eric Massa D $7K $2K
OH-02 Jean Schmidt R-inc. $20K $17K
OH-15 Deborah Pryce R-inc. $167K $171K
OH-15 Mary Jo Kilroy D $23K $36K
OH-16 Ralph Regula R-inc. $1,560 $91K
OH-18 Zack Space D-inc. $213K $180K
OR-03 Earl Blumenauer D-inc. $92K $405K
OR-04 Peter DeFazio D-inc. $24K $106K
PA-04 Jason Altmire D-inc. $225K $225K
PA-06 Jim Gerlach R-inc. $213K $107K
PA-07 Joe Sestak D-inc. $444K $587K
PA-08 Patrick Murphy D-inc. $340K $301K
PA-10 Chris Carney D-inc. $248K $210K
PA-15 Charlie Dent R-inc. $181K $221K
TX-22 Nick Lampson D-inc. $219K $261K
TX-23 Ciro Rodriguez D-inc. $221K $356K
VA-02 Thelma Drake R-inc. $227K $190K
VA-11 Tom Davis R-inc. $623K $833K
WA-08 Dave Reichert R-inc. $185K $48K
WA-08 Darcy Burner D $17K $38K
WI-08 Steve Kagen D-inc. $155K $167K
WY-AL Barbara Cubin R-inc. $18K $9K

A few quick thoughts:

1) Kirsten Gillibrand has been working overtime to deter any strong Republican opposition from forming against her in New York’s 20th district. Her $668,000 raised is simply awe-inspiring. I haven’t gone through each individual filing, but I bet that, aside from members of the House leadership, she made the largest fundraising splash of 2007.

2) Don’t miss Flordia Republican Bill Young’s measley $15,000 raised. Despite Florida Democrats pouring on the heat over his inaction during the Walter Reed scandal and the DCCC actively recruiting potential challengers in the district, Young, who will be 78 on election day, vowed that he would not bend to what he called a “smear campaign” against him. At that level of fundraising, he sure isn’t preparing for much of a brawl.

3) Tim Walberg’s underwhelming total of $136K certainly won’t deter a top-shelf candidate from giving this Club For Growth stooge a hard challenge next year. MI-07 and FL-10 have got to be in the top five Democratic House targets this cycle.

Anything we missed?

VA-Sen: Tom Davis Raises a Bundle

We don’t have a crystal ball.  We never understood Tarot cards.  We can’t read Senator John Warner’s mind.  And we certainly don’t have any informants in the upper ranks of the Virginia Republican Party.

But we do have FEC filings, and they may very well be just as useful to find out whether John Warner is running for another term in the Senate or not.  As you may recall, rumors were floating last month that Warner had signalled his preferred successor, Rep. Tom Davis, to prepare himself to run in his place.  This was amidst news that Mark Warner, the mind-bogglingly popular former Virginia Governor, was considering a Senate run regardless of Warner’s decision.

Well, Tom Davis filed his first quarter fundraising reports today, and money talks:

Tom Davis (R): $623,463 raised; $833k cash-on-hand

$623k almost two years before the next election is an astronomical amount raised for a House campaign.  While I haven’t seen all of the fundraising reports, it could very well be the highest haul of all House members this year.  The next higest fundraising total was a similarly impressive number: $600k for freshman Democrat Ron Klein of Florida.  Klein, however, occupies a bizarrely-drawn district with an insanely expensive media market, so he needed to post a larger-than-average 1Q report to deter any potentially strong challengers.

Stack up Davis’ $623,000 next to Warner’s five Benjamins (yes, that’d be $500 even) raised during the same time frame, and I think we may have some pretty compelling evidence to believe that John Warner is heavily leaning towards retirement.

Let the games begin.

Race Tracker: VA-Sen | VA-11

Congress 2008: Who’s Running?

I wanted to share with everyone a brand new site that we have been putting together over the past couple of months: DC Critters.

This site lists every House and Senate incumbent and the vote totals by county for each race. The site also lists any challenger or potential challenger for the seat in 2008 (the Senate seats that are up in 2010 and 2012 will be updated as candidates announce as well.)

This should be somewhat of a clearinghouse for election data and candidate announcements so we will keep it updated as the candidates begin to announce for 2008.

If you are a data geek like us, this site is pure heaven!

Son of 1Q Fundraising Thread

(Give us numbers, people! – promoted by DavidNYC)

Everywhere at once:

  • LA-06:
  • Richard Baker (R-Inc.): $94k raised; $66k cash-on-hand

    Wow, is that ever weak.  Considering that Baker is among the top tier of potential Republican candidates rumored to run against Sen. Mary Landrieu next year, this says a lot.  Is he that unenthusiastic to enter a high-profile slugfest?  In any case, he might want to watch himself: Katrina-related demographic changes have made his R+6.5 district a shade bluer.

  • PA-06:
  • Jim Gerlach (R-inc.): $213k raised; $107k cash-on-hand

    Mediocre showing for Gerlach, who should never be considered safe in this tossup district.

  • MN-06:
  • Michelle Bachmann (R-inc.): $259k raised; $200k cash-on-hand

    It remains to be seen whether or not Minnesota’s 6th district is suffering a serious case of buyer’s remorse after seeing their newly-elected Representative’s death-grip on President Bush on the House floor, or after her claim that she knows of a “secret plan” by Iran to partition Iraq.

  • KS-02:
  • Nancy Boyda (D-inc): $137k raised; $171k cash-on-hand
    Jim Ryun (R): $275k raised; $255k cash-on-hand

    Oof, that’s a brutal, but unsurprising showing for Boyda.  Any freshman Democrat who occupies a district that Bush won by 20 points should be bracing for the fight of their lives in 2008.  By opting out of the DCCC’s Fronline incumbent protection program earlier in the year, Rep. Boyda has made it clear that she has other priorities, and other ideas on what it takes to win in a district this red.  Her saving grace could come from a nasty primary fight between Ryun and State Treasurer Lynn Jenkins, who comes from the so-called “moderate” wing of the Kansas GOP.  A bloodied Ryun as the Republican nominee would be her best bet for survival.

  • NM-01:
  • Heather Wilson (R-inc.): $274k raised; $250k cash-on-hand

    You’re gonna need every penny, Heather…

  • KY-Sen:
  • Mitch McConnell (R-inc.): $1.7 million+ raised; $4.4 million cash-on-hand

    Daaaaamn.  It looks like that blood money raised on his behalf by Bush himself can add up quickly.

  • PA-04:
  • Jason Altmire (D-inc.): $300k raised; $200k+ cash-on-hand

  • WA-08:
  • Darcy Burner (D): $17k raised; $38k cash-on-hand

  • NY-29:
  • Eric Massa (D): $7k raised; $2k cash-on-hand

2008-SEN and Stem Cells

This is an issue where the public is clearly on our side. So the bill came up today and it was 63-34, with Landrieu, Johnson, and Dodd not voting, so basically it was a 66-34 vote. We were just 1 vote away from getting the numbers to override Bush’s veto.

The opponents were 32 Republicans and 2 Dems(Casey and Ben Nelson). 14 of the 21 GOP Senators who are up for re-election in 08 voted against this. Those being Allard(retiring), Chambliss, Coleman, Cornyn, Craig, Dole, Domenici, Graham, Hagel, Inhofe, McConell, Roberts, Sessions and Sununu.

Coleman and Sununu’s names are obviously the two big ones their as their opponents will almost surely use this against them. Dole, and perhaps Cornyn, Craig, and Inhofe are also people who could face competitive elections and their opponents may be able to gain traction using this issue. Also who could forget Ron Sparks as this would be a good issue to use against Sessions.

Also, one thing I just realized is that Frist supported this legislation and his successor, Corker didn’t. Wow, I can’t believe that in one way I actually wish Frist was still in the senate.

Tom Udall Could Force a Pete Domenici Retirement

[Cross-posted at my blog, Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

The Albuquerque Tribune just came out with an article on Pajamas Pete Domenici’s Q1 fundraising.  Domenici raised a seemingly meager $393,000 for Q1.  It looks meager given that Domenici is a long-time incumbent and former Chair of a powerful committee.  The article elucidates:

Domenici’s total is dwarfed by what was spent on most Senate races in 2006 but is comparable to what Sen. Jeff Bingaman, a Silver City Democrat, raised and spent on the way to an easy victory over Allen McCulloch of Farmington last year.

Bingaman raised about $230,000 in the first quarter of 2005 and had $556,000 in cash on hand at the end of the period. He wound up spending about $3.3 million. Domenici spent about $4.6 million on his last re-election race in 2002.

Bingaman spent $3.3 million to beat his opponent 71-29 last year.  In 2002, Domenici spent $4.6 million and only beat his opponent 65-35, a drubbing to be sure, but a smaller margin than Bingaman’s victory and at a 40% higher price.

So, Domenici is on a correct fundraising pace, if he just wants to raise the same $3 to $5 million for a cake-walk run.

(More below the fold.)

Keep in mind that his physical health, and some have suggested his mental health, are giving away.  And he has that pesky Senate Ethics investigation looming over his head.

If a top-tier challenger ran against Domenici, he would have to raise maybe $8 to $10 million, probably double what he originally expected.  And he’d have to debate and hustle and endure the rigors of a tough campaign.  And, all this, again, while the Senate Ethics investigation loomed over him.  With all that to consider, if a top-tier candidate entered the race, I think Domenici, who turns 75 next month, would opt for retirement.

But that candidate would have to enter the race soon, to force Domenici to a decision.  As I’ve suggested before, Democratic Congressman Tom Udall is probably the strongest option, with Lt. Gov. Diane Denish keeping her eye on the Governor’s office and former state AG Patricia Madrid having just narrowly lost to Heather Wilson and (however unfairly) being tangentially connected to the scandal that plagues Domenici.

If Tom Udall entered the race now, he could force Domenici to retire and have a not-too-difficult run against far-right-winger Steve Pearce or an even less-prominent Republican opponent.  But Udall would have to get in soon.  With all of the draft movements cropping up, I’d sure like to see one get started for Tom Udall.