Tag: 2008 Elections

(From the diaries with minor edits. – promoted by James L.)

Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP, Daily Kos and MyDD.

Rumors of Democrats getting ready to take on Heather Wilson for her seat in Congress have been floating around since November.

Clearly, whichever Democrat goes against Wilson will have money behind him or her (more on that below).  So who is stepping up to the plate?  State Rep. Al Park?  State Sen. Jerry Ortiz y Pino?  Former Albuquerque City Councilman Eric Griego?  Nope.

First up, we have the potential rock star of the group, Albuquerque City Council President Martin Heinrich.  Heinrich is popular, young, and a favorite of progressives.  Not to mention that he has his own website, which is always a plus for a blogger.

Joe Monahan reports he was told by Heinrich Monday, “Heinrich may try to clear the field and announce his candidacy for the Democratic nomination for the congressional seat held by Republican Heather Wilson within the next several weeks.”

So who would he be clearing from the field?  Besides the aforementioned names, maybe Rick Homans.  So who exactly is Rick Homans?

Currently, Homans is the New Mexico Economic Development Secretary.  He also ran for mayor in 2001… where he finished fifth behind current Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez, former Bernalillo County District Attorney Bob Schwartz, the at-the-time incumbent Jim Baca and city Councilor Mike McEntee. 

And according to a source of Heath Haussamen, he is considering a run for Congress.  Most significantly, the source told Haussamen “Gov. Bill Richardson has pledged to support Homans in a Democratic primary.”

But if Heinrich steps into the race, not many (if any) Democrats would stand a chance in a primary against the city council President.

It’s about time local area Democrats stepped up to the plate to take on Wilson.  Having quotes from potential challengers about her fauxs pas from here to election day would build a nice narrative in the minds of undecided voters. 

Even better, they could start raising money to take on the inevitable large warchest Wilson will raise to try to save her job.  And they will have support from the DCCC.

After all, Wilson’s seat is perennially a target for Democrats, and the DCCC began attacking her for her controversial phone call to former US Attorney David Iglesias.  Iglesias was subsequently fired, and believes it was due to political pressure from Wilson and Sen. Pete Domenici.

The DCCC has also started a website called the Heather Wilson Watch to keep tabs on Heather Wilson.  This is similar to the now defunct Washington Wilson Watch run by the Patricia Madrid campaign.  Currently, HWW is just dedicated to her role in the Iglesias firing; but it can easily be expanded to show her stances on many issues.

With the 50 State page in a temporary? (please come back 50 State Page hint hint Barry Welsh) hiatus I figured a candidate update was in order. Yes I know it is WAAAAYYYY early in the 2008 cycle but the sooner House candidates get in the field the better.

And the news on the filing front is great, courtesy of the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.

Below the fold for all the news.
(cross posted at MyDD and Daily Kos)

2 1/2 months ago I diaried about the fact that we had 248 Races Filled.

This of course included 233 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters (yeh yeh I know some will not run but I am assuming we will find candidates in those districts!)

Now some 10 weeks later we have 40 Republican districts filled for a grand total of 273 districts filled.

***Remember that a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running.***

Remember also that I am not commenting on the quality of each or any candidate merely that they are out and about.

So without further ado:
1) GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:
AZ-01,
AZ-02,
AR-03,
CA-04,
CA-41, [In the event of a special election but he will run in 2008 methinks!]
CA-48,
FL-01,
FL-09,
FL-13, [Either through the House of Reps investigation or Jennings has committed to another run.]
FL-21,
FL-25,
GA-10 [SPECIAL ELECTION JUNE 19TH],
ID-01,
IL-10,
IL-14,
IN-06,
IA-04,
IA-05,
MI-07,
MN-06,
MO-09,
NE-02,
NV-03,
NJ-11,
NM-02,
NY-25,
NY-29,
NC-08,
NC-09,
OH-07,
OH-15,
OH-16,
PA-03,
PA-15,
TX-04,
TX-08,
TX-13,
VA-06,
WA-08,
WI-01,

2) The following 2 GOP held districts have candidates that are expected to run but are yet to confirm:
NJ-05,
NJ-07,

3) We also have the following 37 GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!
AL-01,
AL-04,
AK-AL,
AZ-03,
AZ-06,
CA-03,
CA-42,
CA-45,
CO-04,
CT-04,
DE-AL,
FL-06,
FL-12,
KY-05,
MI-09,
MN-02,
MO-06,
MT-AL,
NE-03,
NJ-02,
NJ-03,
NJ-04,
NM-01,
NY-03,
NY-13,
NY-26,
OH-01,
OH-02,
PA-06,
PA-18,
TN-07,
TX-02,
TX-03,
TX-06,
TX-14,
UT-03,
VA-11,

4) And last but not least the following 123 districts have not a single rumoured candidate:
AL-02,
AL-03,
AL-06,
CA-02,
CA-19,
CA-21,
CA-22,
CA-24,
CA-25,
CA-26,
CA-40,
CA-44,
CA-46,
CA-49,
CA-50,
CA-52,
CO-05,
CO-06,
FL-04,
FL-05,
FL-07,
FL-08,
FL-10,
FL-14,
FL-15,
FL-18,
FL-24,
GA-01,
GA-03,
GA-06,
GA-07,
GA-09,
GA-11,
ID-02,
IL-06,
IL-11,
IL-13,
IL-15,
IL-16,
IL-18,
IL-19,
IN-03,
IN-04,
IN-05,
KS-01,
KS-04,
KY-01,
KY-02,
KY-04,
LA-01,
LA-04,
LA-05,
LA-06,
LA-07,
MD-01,
MD-06,
MI-02,
MI-03,
MI-04,
MI-06,
MI-08,
MI-10,
MI-11,
MI-12,
MN-03,
MS-01,
MS-03,
MO-02,
MO-07,
MO-08,
NE-02,
NV-02,
NY-23,
NC-03,
NC-05,
NC-06,
NC-10,
OH-03,
OH-04,
OH-05,
OH-08,
OH-12,
OH-14,
OK-01,
OK-03,
OK-04,
OK-05,
OR-02,
PA-05,
PA-09,
PA-16,
PA-19,
SC-01,
SC-02,
SC-03,
SC-04,
TN-01,
TN-02,
TN-03,
TX-01,
TX-05,
TX-10,
TX-11,
TX-12,
TX-19,
TX-21,
TX-24,
TX-26,
TX-31,
TX-32,
UT-01,
VA-01,
VA-02,
VA-04,
VA-05,
VA-07,
VA-10,
WA-04,
WA-05,
WV-02,
WI-05,
WI-06,
WY-AL,

Now obviously there is a long way to go and it is very early in the cycle but this is an impressive start!

While there has been talk for a while that Gordon Smith may face a challenge from the right, it now appears there is a name attached to that prospect. The Associated Press is reporting that anti-tax activist and form gubernatorial candidate Bill Sizemore is considering doing a little bit of our work for us.

National Democrats have made it plain that one of their top targets in the 2008 Senate election will be Oregon Republican Sen. Gordon Smith, who has been reaching out more to moderate voters of late.

But Smith also could face potential trouble within his own party at home.

There are rumors that Smith might draw a primary challenge from the party’s right wing. A national group that promotes fiscal conservatism is making noises about possibly bankrolling such an effort.

A GOP primary challenge could force Smith — who has broken with President Bush and the Republican Party on Iraq and other issues — to veer more to the right, which could harm his chances in a state that’s trending more blue….

Anti-tax activist Bill Sizemore, who was trounced when he ran against then-Democratic Gov. John Kitzhaber in 1998, said recently that he’s giving thought to possibly taking on Smith.

Oh please please please run, Bill. If he does, Peter DeFazio or any other candidate can sit back while Smith has to fend off this challenge from his right. If there is anything you can do to egg Sizemore, feel free to do so. 😉

There is a new Wes Clark video that is very unusual at YouTube. Instead of talking about a candidate, in this case Wes Clark, it speaks directly to Wes Clark. I hope this really does go viral. I feel it has a message that Wes Clark needs to hear.

The full channel name is YouTube/Polcampaign. There is only one video there at least for the moment. I will be putting this on my blogs. I hope other blog owners and members do the same.

This is not a 100% declaration of support for a Clark candidacy on my part. While most know I was heavily involved in the Draft and Campaign, I’m trying to keep an Open Mind for a couple of our declared candidates as they make their case. But I want to listen to Wes Clark too. I firmly believe he will elevate the campaign once in the game. And I think this video may help in that effort.

If Wes Clark again gets a firm demonstration of his built-in support perhaps it will impact his decision making. While most of us expect him to run, based on his own comments, I believe this is a time to demonstrate his support. Circulating this video is one easy way to make the support obvious..and elevate the campaign discussion at the same time!

The Associated Press picks up on what could be a surprisingly lively Senate race in Alabama next year, profiling the potential candidacies of three Democrats: state Sen. Vivian Figures, retired Jefferson County District Judge Pete Johnson, and state Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks.

Of all the potential candidates, though, it’s Ron Sparks who seems like the most fearless campaigner:

Sparks, who’s serving his second term as agriculture commissioner and can’t run again, said he’s received lots of encouragement to seek the office and is giving it serious thought.

Sparks said a review of Sessions’ voting record indicates there would be plenty for a Democrat to talk about, including Sessions’ push for a repeal of the estate tax.

“Only 1 percent of Americans would have benefited; 99 percent would not have,” Sparks said.

In one breath, Sparks makes it clear why he’s a Democrat, and lets it be known that while on the campaign trail, he won’t be tempering his core Democratic principles of economic fairness and progressive populism.  That’s what a Democrat looks like, and that’s the kind of scrappy, tough campaign that will be needed if Democrats hope to reconnect with Southern voters.  Recall that Sessions attempted to exploit the deaths of Katrina victims in order to build support for repealing the estate tax, so a Democrat could be well-poised to expose Sessions’ perverse values.

If Ron Sparks decides to run, the article also notes that he has a leg up on the competition:

As agriculture commissioner, he has been in the news more than some of his predecessors, including promoting agricultural trade with Cuba and showing he can cross party lines to work with Republicans on pushing alternative fuels and improving child nutrition.

Sparks said he will decide in a few months whether to enter the race. But if he does, he’s not concerned about ending up like [2002 candidate Susan] Parker did with fundraising.

“From six years ago, the atmosphere has changed completely,” he said.

Indeed, the atmosphere has changed dramatically in six years.  Six years ago, there was no collaborative Sack Sessions blog, or a Facebook group with over 200 members dedicated to unseating the Senator.  And while Dick Cheney recently stopped by the state to help fill Sessions’ coffers with an extra $500,000, I bet there wouldn’t have been this many negative letters to the editor had Cheney visited in 2002.

Race Tracker: AL-Sen

A Rasmussen report has shown that NYC mayor Mike Bloomberg, widely thought to be a potential third party candidate, would be a GOP spoiler in the 2008 election.  Their poll shows that when Bloomberg is thrown into the mix, Clinton (only dem. they’ve polled so far) only loses one percentage point, opposed to Giuliani and McCain who drop to 37%.  With a year and a half to go, Bloomberg already has 9% support, which could easily be built on.  This comes with another Rasmussen report that shows 19% of the population would be “somewhat likely” to go third party.  Should Bloomberg jump in and spend ½ billion as expected he could get enough to secure 2008.  hell he might even win, or at the very least get a few electoral votes.  Either way, as a scholar of both presidential elections and a third party advocate, I’d LOVE to see this.

Jim Inhofe is the worst Senator around right now. Perhaps you could also make a case for few others. Jeff Sessions and Mitch McConnell both come to mind but Inhofe’s global warming lunacy puts him in a league of his own.

I do not want my state to suffer under another six years of embarrassment.  We do have plenty of Democrats that could give Inhofe a run for his money. Our Attorney General, Drew Edmonson, would definitely make for a strong candidate. Brad Henry, however, our incredibly popular Democratic Governor, would instantly move this race into the tossup or lean Dem. category. While Henry has said he is not interested, there is still room for persuasion. When it comes to defeating Inhofe, we have to shoot for the best possible candidate. I have taken the first step in trying to get Governor Henry in this race and I invite all of you to join with me.

Why Henry?

In an ubber conservative state that gave President Bush one of his widest margins of victory, Henry managed to trounce his Republican opponent this past cycle 67% to 33%. Bear in mind that Henry barley made it to the governor’s office to begin with. Back in 2002, he edged out Steve Largent by less than one percent thanks in part to Gary Richardson, an anti-government Ross Perot type who ran as an independent.

His opposition was more than formidable. Thinking he would automatically be competitive in such a Republican trending state, Istook gave up his coveted Oklahoma City based U.S. House seat to run for governor. But his campaign would fizzle like crazy because of Henry’s remarkable popularity.

Not only is Henry one of our state’s most popular Democratic politicians, he has also been a solid governor. Frank Keating, his wingnut Republican predecessor, ran one of the worst, if not the worst, budget deficits in state history. Put simply, our state was a total mess. Henry amazingly turned this deficit into a surplus without massive cuts to education and health care. This is by far his most significant accomplishment so far.

While Henry is not the typical progressive pit bull that netroots movements usually support, his laid back, bipartisan style is a perfect fit for Oklahoma. 

Dumping Inhofe

Until recently, I had always thought that Inhofe was just another run of the mill conservative Republican. His notorious reaction to the Abu_Gharib prison scandal, however, made me realize that Inhofe was beyond crazy: 

“I’m probably not the only one up at this table that is more outraged by the outrage than we are by the treatment,” Sen. James Inhofe said during a hearing on the Abu Ghraib prison scandal.

And then of course, you all know that Inhofe is the global warming deniers go-to-guy in Washington. Not only is he denial of one our country’s most pressing environmental concerns, he routinely struts around with lunatic comments like these that do nothing but embarrass his home state:

“What would happen to the Weather Channel’s ratings if all the sudden people weren’t scared anymore?”

Comments like these reek of a level of stupidity, craziness and just downright idiocy that don’t belong in the U.S. Senate. I want this man out. And the best way to ensure that this happens is to run our governor, one of the strongest candidates Oklahoma Democrats have had in a long time.

Jim Inhofe is worried. And he may very well be justified. Accoridng to the Tulsa World, Chuck Schumer and the DSCC are gunning for him and looking hard for a candidate.

Inhofe says the same people who took out Pombo are now gunning for him.

He based that prediction at least partly on recent fundraising letters the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee sent out using Inhofe as one of the major reasons donors should pony up for the cause.

“One seat. That’s all it would take to flip Senate control back to the GOP in 2008,” one letter states.

“And once again, the Oklahoma Republican Senator James Inhofe — who has called global warming the ‘greatest hoax ever 
perpetrated on the American people’ — would assume the chairmanship of the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works.”

Unfortunately, our two strongest candidates have said no, for now.

Oklahoma Gov. Brad Henry has said no to national Democrats hoping to recruit him for the race.

U.S. Rep. Dan Boren is also taking a pass on the 2008 Senate race….

Although much of what Inhofe said was likley due to paranoia, it does appear that the DSCC is looking at this race. We need to help them out and urge either Henty, Boren or another strong candidate to take up this race!

 

Is it just me, or are ads produced by Democratic-allied groups getting stronger and stronger?  The Hill takes a look at three ads by Americans United for Change targeting Republican Senators Collins (ME), McConnell (KY) and Sununu (NH).  And while the ads against McConnell and Collins are both pretty good, the Sununu edit takes the prize:

Damn.

I’m feeling pretty good about this race.  Given New Hampshire’s rapidly shifting partisan composition, Sununu’s steadfast support for Bush’s disastrous and unnecessary war in Iraq, and support from his new best friends at the extreme-right Club For Growth, I’m feeling pretty pumped about the chances of any challenger who isn’t a Lieberdem with a crappy electoral track record and a name that rhymes with Boba Fett.

Race Tracker: NH-Sen

(Mo’ Money. – promoted by DavidNYC)

UPDATE:

• FL-22:

Ron Klein (D-inc.): $600K raised; $500K cash-on-hand

Man is that ever a formidable amount.

• NH-Sen:

Steve Marchand (D): $100K raised (~$85K for primary, 250 donors)
Katrina Swett (D): $462K raised ($304K for primary); $443K cash-on-hand

Glad to see Marchand come in with six figures. Swett, who is almost certainly my least favorite Senate challenger this cycle, undoubtedly got a lot of help from her father, Rep. Tom Lantos (CA-12). Can’t wait to see how many of her donors maxed out – and are from out of state. (Marchand’s money was half in-state.)

• CT-05

Chris Murphy (D-inc.): $420K raised (via DCCC e-mail)

Chris Murphy rode to what I consider the largest win in 2006 against a non-scandal-ridden, non-crazy opponent. That, combined with his prodigious fundraising, will probably mean the GOP will have a tough time scaring up a challenger for this fast-rising star.

• IN-08

John Hostettler (R): -$216 raised; $9K cash-on-hand

Ah, this is just too perfect. John Hostettler, whose well-known refusal to fundraise directly led to his 22-point thrashing last November, managed to raise negative $216 this quarter. No, that is not a typo. Somehow, I don’t think he’ll be seeking a rematch.

• VA-02

Thelma Drake (R-inc.): $227K raised; $190K cash-on-hand

Freshman Drake won in a 51-49 squeaker last year, despite her district’s heavy Republican tilt. Seems like she must be at least a little bit scared about her hold on the district. Unfortunately, we can’t compare these figures to the comparable period last cycle because she didn’t get into the race until late in 2004. (After self-hating gay Republican Ed Schrock was outed and quit the race.)

• CA-11

Richard Pombo (R): -$825 raised; $35K cash-on-hand

Wow, he managed to out-un-raise John Hostettler. Impressive. Anyhow, there’d been some soft talk about Pombo seeking a rematch. Numbers talk a lot louder, and what they’re saying is: bullshit.

P.S. I took a quick look at all the Senate candidates listed on ActBlue who are running this cycle. Only one candidate has raised a material amount of money via AB so far: Tim Johnson, with almost $60K and 1,000 donors. A few other candidates have very low four figures, and most have zero.

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It’s that time of year again: the first fundraising reports for the 2008 election season are starting to trickle in.  Since the Presidential fundraising numbers are already well-covered by this point, let’s start logging fundraising totals for House and Senate candidates.

• MN-Sen:

Al Franken (D): $1.3m raised; $1m cash-on-hand
Norm Coleman (R-inc.): $1.5m raised; $2.8m cash-on-hand

• LA-Sen:

Mary Landrieu (D-Inc.): $1.02m raised; $1.8m cash-on-hand
(H/T: The Guru)

• NC-Sen:

Elizabeth Dole (R-Inc.): $1.7m raised; $1.5m cash-on-hand
(H/T: BlueSouth)

It may be early, but as Franken’s example proves, the campaign window keeps getting pushed back earlier and earlier each cycle.  If you’ve seen any other noteworthy numbers for House and Senate incumbents or challengers, please post them in the comments.