Tag: 2008

We’ve done Senate cattle calls several times in the past, so let’s try something a little more challenging: ranking the House races.

You know what to do: List the competitive House races (as far down as you want to go) in order of their likelihood of flipping. I would suggest making two lists — one for Republican vulnerabilities and the other for Democratic defenses.

You may find SSP’s Competitive House Ratings to be helpful in remembering all the targeted races this year, but don’t let our ratings influence your list. After all, campaigns will be filing their second quarter fundraising reports with the FEC over the next couple of weeks, and our ratings will be due for another revision by then.

I had the chance to meet Eric Roberson, who is running for CD32 up in Dallas, while I was in Austin for the state Democratic convention, but due to my short stay our schedules didn’t allow for an interview. Fortunately, he was going to be coming to Houston shortly afterward, and I took advantage of that to rectify the omission. We’re all aware of the recent IVR poll that shows him trailing Rep. Pete Sessions by only nine points. Now you can hear what he has to say on a variety of issues, from Iraq and FISA to immigration and why he calls himself a former Republican. The interview is available here, along with links to other candidate interviews I did at the convention. Please let me know what you think. Thanks.

I AM!

Today, State Senator Don Cravins, Jr. announced his candidacy for Congress as a Democrat! Cravins said that he’s running because:

The people of Louisiana are ready for a change and deserve representation that is line with their values. I am running for Congress because we need a leader who will work to find solutions to the hard times we face right now, like the skyrocketing cost of gas, groceries, and health care. I promise to bring my record of effective leadership and my strong faith and Louisiana values to Congress.”

It’s about time we take this seat back from Congressman Boustany, who can’t be bothered to bring home all the bacon he can so towns like Cameron, LA can rebuild after Rita. It’s about time we take this seat back from a Congressman that flip-flopped on healthcare for children … he originally opposed SCHIP, the health care program for children. Then he saw that the Democratic Party was gunning for him, and he changed his tune. We need somebody who has better judgment than that the first time around, and doesn’t need to be threatened with a election challenge to do the right thing.

Again, I ask … ARE YOU WITH JUNIOR?

Then go to his website and sign up!

This past week had important events scheduled every day ending with a very busy weekend.  Here is a brief rundown of the highlights of the week:

The first major joint debate between the 2 candidates in the 5th Congressional District was held on Tuesday at the CBICC luncheon.  The event was broadcast later that evening on PCN.  The feedback I’ve received is that the debate clearly showed the contrast where I stand on the important issues, both regional and national, and where my opponent stands.  The important topics addressed included healthcare, the Iraq war and the growing crisis of increasing gas and energy costs.

On Thursday, I attended an open house for the expansion of Murmac Farms outside of Bellefonte.  This was a very educational trip for me as I got to see the operation of a modern dairy farm with 1000 cows that are milked daily.  Speaking with the owner, he explained to me the trials of running the operation which is a 7 day a week, year round operation.  It is a family business with 2 of his 3 sons also living and working on the farm.  The farm also employs around 25 people on a full time basis.  The most interesting thing I learned was how technology is used on a modern dairy farm.  Every cow has a device around their neck that is read as they move through the process of milking.  The data is retrieved using wireless technology and fed back into computers which monitor their daily milk output and how much feed they consume.  

Friday I traveled to Altoona to attend the annual convention of the Pennsylvania Federation of Democratic Women.   I was honored to be one of the featured speakers along with fellow congressional candidates Tony Barr from the 9th district, Kathy Dahlkemper from the 4th district, State Representative Scott Conklin and Auditor General Jack Wagner.  

The week ended with campaign chairman Henry Guthrie traveling with me to Wellsboro on Saturday for the Laurel Festival and Parade.  The parade was late in starting due to a nasty passing thunderstorm and the parade had to end abruptly when another storm passed through the area.  However, it was another enjoyable visit to Tioga County and I got to speak with a good number of people while I attended the festival prior to the parade.  

On the way home from Tioga County, we made a side trip to Williamsport to stop in at the headquarters of the Lycoming County Democratic Party.  It was inspiring to see 4 young people from the Obama campaign along with a person from the county Democratic Party working at the headquarters on a Saturday evening.  It shows how committed people are to positive change in our country.

Finally on Sunday, Kelly, Amanda and I traveled to State College for 2 house parties hosted by Art and Louise Goldschmidt from 3 to 5 and then it was on to Mary Jane Havanec’s house from 5 to 7.  Both house parties offered a great opportunity to talk about the issues important to the people in attendance.  I was also encouraged by several college students who are Obama supporters that came to Art and Louise’s party.   It is great to see their commitment, not only to Senator Obama, but to the entire Democratic slate of candidates.

It was a very busy week for the campaign with many people taking time to be involved.  I want to thank all the Centre County Democrats who turned out to support me at the debate on Tuesday.  I also want to thank the Democrats in Tioga County that arranged for a booth at the Laurel Festival and finally, thanks to the Goldschmidt’s and the Havanec’s for hosting the house parties on Sunday and for everyone who took the time to come out and meet with me.

Below is information about a fundraising event we will be having in Clearfield on July 17th:

McCracken for Congress Dinner

Thursday, July 17th at 5:30PM

Lawrence Township Fire Company Social Hall

Mill Road – Clearfield

Come out and support the campaign to elect Mark B. McCracken to Congress from the 5th Congressional District.  Cost $20 per person – Meal catered by the Country Butcher – Door Prizes – Call for tickets at 765-6821 or 577-3374 or email requests to mccrackenforcongress@verizon.net .

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

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This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

The race for Kentucky’s First Congressional District’s House seat is definately heating up with the weather. As we approach the dog days of summer, the Ryan for Kentucky campaign is definately gaining steam. Today, we have several pieces of new news to pass on to our fellow Democrats. Heather Ryan is hitting her stride, and is ready to fight to expand our Congressional majorities!!  

The first piece of news we have is this letter to the editor sent by Heather to Louisville’s Courier Journal in response to their article about “Exxon Eddie’s” horse initiative:

To the Editor:

As the Democratic candidate for Kentucky ‘s First Congressional District, I have followed with interest Republican Congressman Ed Whitfield’s (KY-01) performance presiding over a dog-and-pony show before a House Energy Subcommittee.  Mr. Whitfield’s plan to add a layer of federal bureaucracy to regulate the horse racing industry is unnecessary in light of the industry’s ability and willingness to self-regulate their business practices.  Congressman Whitfield is obviously exploiting the recent death of Kentucky Derby runner-up Eight Belles to make political points during an election season.  At a time of skyrocketing energy prices, when oil companies like Exxon-Mobil  boast record profits, doesn’t seven-term Congressman Whitfield  realize that the House Energy and Commerce committee’s Commerce, Trade and Consumer Protection subcommittee should be dealing with more pressing issues?

In much more important news, due to inquiries by many potential constituents, including myself Heather has decided to speak on the FISA compromise the Senate will vote on later this week. From the email sent to me by Heather:

Later this week, the Senate will be considering passage of the compromise on the FISA Bill. Since many voters in the First Congressional District of Kentucky have contacted me wondering what my stance on this legislation is, I felt compelled to speak on this issue.

While I was in Washington on that terrible day of Sept. 11, 2001 when planes crashed into the World Trade Center and in Western Pennsylvania, and the Pentagon, I can understand the passion that has fueled this bill. Having said that, I must urge the Senate to reject this FISA compromise as proposed and passed by the House of Representatives with H.R. 6304.

There are several reasons why I feel this bill is unnecessary. First, I think that we have lost focus on the fact that a competent Administration could have actually gone a long way in preventing this tragedy. The Bush Administration was warned in advance of 9-11 and did nothing at the time to prevent it. I believe if the Bush Administration would have acted on the intelligence provided them, then the 9-11 tragedy could have been avoided through the laws that existed at the time.

I also believe this law is an extension of the Bush Administration’s attempts to politicize the Justice Department. Prosecuting entities are provided by the Constitution with checks and balances on which to operate. They already have very broad powers and if they found a credible threat would have no problem getting a warrant in a timely fashion.

Finally, I believe that FISA and this compromise are an abomination to the Constitution because it seeks to circumvent the checks and balances provided all of us by that sacred document. I strongly oppose giving the Telecom Corporations immunity when they knew they were breaking the law, when the Bush Administration asked them to break the law.

I saw where my opponent in this race, “Exxon Ed” Whitfield voted for this Legislation. I think it is pretty ironic when the very Republicans who lecture us regarding limiting the roll of the Federal Government propose, and push through, the House of Representatives a bill that vastly broadens the powers of the Federal Government. This is one issue on which Progressives, Moderates and Conservatives should all be able to agree. There are certain things on which none of us should ever compromise, and the Constitution is one thing on which I will never compromise as Representative of Kentucky’s First District.

Indeed. I don’t think I could have put it better myself. Heather has shown with this response that she, simply put just gets it. None of us should forget the incompetence of the Bush Administration leading up to 9-11, and how it contributed to that tragedy. We should remember too, that they have now attempted to politicize the Justice Department to make us forget that incompetence.

The truth of the matter is that this law is unneccesary. Toying with the Constitution is a dangerous precedent for anyone to set, especially at the behest of the most incompetent administration in modern times. Heather is spot on in her analysis of the Republicans, including Exxon Eddie, lecturing us on the size of the Federal Government while voting to broadly expanding the powers of that entity.

As usual, Exxon Eddie has shown no vision or leadership on this issue. Of course we all know that Exxon Eddie is

Asleep at the Wheel

It is refreshing to see a candidate that isn’t afraid to speak the truth, especially on such an important issue as the Constitution. It is also refreshing to see a candidate that isn’t afraid to break from her party’s leadership when she feels they are wrong. We need more candidates like that in the Congress. As much as we complain about what we feel is capitulation by our party’s leadership, we simply must fight for newer and better Democrats like Heather Ryan.

In more light-hearted news, Ryan for Kentucky today unveiled it’s new “Bag Eddie” series, designed to show some of the ridiculousness of Exxon Ed Whitfield and his fellow Kentucky Republican lackeys. Catch the first installment here:

Mitch McConnell makes an appearance in this one:

Now, you know what to do. We need Democrats in the Congress who share our ideals and aren’t afraid to fight for them. We need Democrats who don’t buy into the propoganda put forth by the Bush Administration. Why not support a Democrat who clearly gets it??:

http://www.actblue.com/page/am…

I think the Ryan for Kentucky quote of the week says it all:

“What this country needs is more unemployed politicians”.

Edward Langley

Best wishes everyone!!

Father’s Day — Our Day to Relax

Today being Father’s Day, I’m getting extra special treatment from Amanda.  I was treated to breakfast this morning and afterwards, Kelly and Amanda headed to the community pool in Clearfield so I could relax for a couple of hours.  For all the fathers, soak up the special treatment today because tomorrow it’s back to solving problems.

There are several important events to note from the past week.  On Tuesday evening I attended the monthly meeting of the Centre County Democratic Committee.  Centre County Chair Dianne Gregg along with Greg Stewart from the Obama campaign hosted a great meeting.  The people in attendance are ready to go to work for the entire Democratic ticket and there was much enthusiasm and excitement about what can be accomplished in 2008.  Also, voter registration and voting trend numbers are very positive for the Democratic Party in Centre County.  

On Friday, Kelly and I were in Bellefonte to take in the atmosphere of the Bellefonte Cruise.  Our original plan was to take a classic car and participate in the event, but, when a downpour went through Clearfield around 4 PM, we decided to leave the sports car in the garage.  We did get the chance to walk around downtown Bellefonte and talk with people and see some great cars.  The only downside was several people commented that participation appeared to be down from prior years.  You have to wonder how much the $4 per gallon price of gas affected the turnout.

On Saturday morning, Kelly, Amanda and I were back in Centre County to attend a fundraising breakfast arranged by Keith Bierly.  I want to thank the people who signed on to host the event: Elizabeth Goreham, John and Sharon McCarthy, Joe French, Tom and Barbara Thwaites, Bill Cahir and Benson Lichtig  It was a tremendous event with attendance from people we had already met during the primary election campaign and many new friends who are joining on to support our campaign.  Thanks to everyone who came out and I greatly appreciate all the questions, comments and suggestions that were made to help with the direction of the campaign as we move forward.

Thanks to the Hosts of the State College Breakfast – L-R, Henry Guthrie – Campaign Chairman, Mark McCracken, Hosts Elizabeth Goreham, Sharon and John McCarthy, Barbara and Tom Thwaites, Joe French.

The rest of the day Saturday was busy as we attended a flea market / car show in Bigler at the historic Super 322 Drive-In, spent several hours at DuBois Community Days and eventually ended up in Houtzdale to attend a dinner event.  

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Events for the Coming Week – June 16th to 22nd:

Tuesday June 17th – State College, the Chamber of Business and Industry of Centre County will be hosting a luncheon and debate with both candidates for the 5th Congressional District.  

Thursday, June 19th from 11 AM to 3 PM, Open house at the recently expanded Murmac Farms in Bellefonte PA.  Thursday, June 19th as Clearfield County Commissioner, I will be attending the LMIP hearing held by Pennsylvania DEP for the proposed Chest Township landfill.  

Friday, June 20th, Kelly and I are tentatively scheduled to attend the Pennsylvania Federation of Democratic Women’s 81st annual convention in Altoona.  

Saturday, June 21st, Wellsboro, Tioga County – Laurel Festival from 10 AM and Parade at 2 PM.  

Sunday June 22nd, State College attending 2 house parties hosted by Art Goldschmidt at 1173 Oneida Street from 3 to 5 PM and at a second location to be determined later from 5:30 to 7:30 PM.

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Pins, Pens, Stickers and Magnetic Bumper Signs Available:  We have McCracken for Congress pins, pens, lapel stickers and magnetic bumper stickers available for anyone who would like them.  Please email the campaign with requests for these items.  

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Fundraising:  We would like to remind everyone that the FEC quarterly report deadline is coming up June 30th.  It is important to show that the campaign is making progress raising funds for the fall campaign.  Our message is strong but we need to mount a competitive media campaign after Labor Day.  Please visit our website www.mccrackenforcongress.com if you would like to donate online via ActBlue.com.  We really appreciate the support we are receiving.  

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Important Upcoming Event:  We will be holding a McCracken for Congress dinner in Clearfield on Thursday July 17th 5:30 PM at the Lawrence Township Fireman’s Social Hall on Mill Road in Clearfield.  Mark your calendars and plan to attend this event.  

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Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

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This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

A Choice – More of the Same or Something Different  

On November 4th, voters will have a choice to make, not only in the race for President between Senator John McCain (More of the Same) and Senator Barack Obama (Something Different), but also in each of the contested races for seats in the US Congress.  

Voters have to look no further than two recent congressional roll call votes to see a contrast between the Democratic and Republican parties.  On May 21st, with solid Democratic support, HR 6049 passed on a 263 for / 160 against vote.   HR 6049 provides energy, business and personal tax breaks totaling $55.5 billion to spur the production of non-fossil fuels, promote energy conservation, stimulate business activity and help homeowners and the working poor.  In order to offset the costs of HR 6049, the bill tightens accounting rules on multinational corporations and eliminates certain offshore tax shelters and loopholes utilized by some US hedge fund managers.  Most important, HR 6049 does not add any additional burden to the national debt.

Most encouraging, HR 6049 will have a positive effect right here in north central Pennsylvania with funding to spur renewable energy sources from crops (including corn based ethanol) and by providing incentives for the production of non-corn based ethanol.  Both of these options will support the alternative fuels industry that is coming to north central Pennsylvania creating jobs and investment in the 5th Congressional District.  Additional language authorizes tax breaks for investment in coal gasification technology, another process that could bring jobs and investment to revitalize the coal industry in north central Pennsylvania.  

Because HR 6049 invests in domestically produced alternative energy and offers great benefits to north central Pennsylvania, I would have voted, along with 16 other members of the Pennsylvania delegation, to support the legislation.  The 3 dissenting votes cast from the Pennsylvania delegation came from Republicans John Peterson, Bill Shuster and Joseph Pitts.  

The Republicans offered alternative language that removed the tighter accounting rules to eliminate the offshore tax shelters and loopholes and included language that added $50 billion for a temporary fix for the Alternative Minimum Tax.  The Republican alternative shifted the entire $55.5 billion cost for HR 6049 plus the $50 billion for the temporary fix of the AMT directly to the national debt.  Since a main theme of my campaign is fiscal responsibility and the elimination of the national debt, I would have voted against the alternative language.   The Republican alternative failed 201 for / 220 against with all 8 Republican members of the Pennsylvania delegation voting for the Republican alternative language.   TRANSLATION:  All 8 Republican members of the Pennsylvania delegation voted to add an additional $105.5 billion to the national debt which is closing in on $10 trillion.

Perhaps most disturbing was the following statement made by Rep. Jeb Hensarling R-Texas in opposing HR 6049.  “Under the Democrats control of Congress, we have seen prices at the pump go up about $1.50 a gallon.   They have tried to sue their way to lower gas prices.   Now they are trying to tax their way to lower gas prices.  Yet they never think about producing American energy in America.”.

WHAT WAS THAT?  The entire purpose of HR 6049 is to spur the production of alternative fuels produced right here in the United States of America, creating jobs, investment and decreasing our dependence on foreign oil.   Perhaps it is time for Rep. Hensarling and his cohorts to acknowledge that foreign policy failures by the Bush administration destabilized the Middle East which is THE reason oil is now $140 a barrel and gas is over $4 a gallon.  

The votes on HR 6049 and the Republican alternative language that would have increased the national debt by $105.5 billion are prime examples of what voters must consider when they vote in November.  Maybe the choice isn’t between More of the Same or Something Different.  Perhaps the real choice comes down to More of the Same or Something Better!

Campaign Highlights for the  Week:

Friday morning, Campaign Chairman Henry Guthrie and I stopped in Lock Haven to participate in a candidate forum that was sponsored by Hub’s Home Oxygen Supply.  The event was broadcast live on the radio with Glenn Thompson joining me to take questions for about an hour.   The on site audience consisted of customers and employees of Hub’s Home Oxygen and 10th and 11th grade students from a nearby high school.  Questions ranged from I-80 tolling / highway and bridge funding, health care reform, our stance on Second Amendment rights, the war in Iraq and who we support for president.

Later Friday and on Saturday, Henry and I attended the Democratic State Committee meeting in Harrisburg.  During our time at the state committee meeting we spoke with several people including former Congressman Joe Hoeffel, Ruth Rudy who ran for the 5th District seat in 1996, PA-16 candidate Bruce Slater and Lt. Gov. Catherine Baker Knoll among others.

It was also encouraging to hear strong statements about the Democratic Party unifying behind Senator Barack Obama as our candidate for President.   These messages came from Governor Ed Rendell, Senator Bob Casey and State Chairman T. J. Rooney.   With our party unified we offer voters Something Better on November 4th.

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

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This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

cross-posted from Election Inspection

Latest Senate Polls for 2008:

State	Incumbent	Poll	Dem Candidate	%	Rep Candidate	%
AL	Sessions	Rasmussen 5/27	Figures	29	Sessions	62
AK	Stevens	Research 2000 5/12-5/14	Begich	48	Stevens	43
CO	Allard	Rasmussen 5/19	Mark Udall	47	Schaffer	41
GA	Chambliss	Strategic Vision (R) 5/9-5/11	Vernon Jones	29	Saxby Chambliss (i)	58
GA	Chambliss	Strategic Vision (R) 5/9-5/11	Dale Cardwell	27	Saxby Chambliss (i)	57
GA	Chambliss	Strategic Vision (R) 5/9-5/11	Rand Knight	25	Saxby Chambliss (i)	58
GA	Chambliss	Strategic Vision (R) 5/9-5/11	Josh Lanier	24	Saxby Chambliss (i)	57
GA	Chambliss	Rasmussen 3/20	Jim Martin	33	Chambliss	51
ID	Craig	Robinson Research 11/26-12/12	LaRocco	27	Risch	46
IA	Tom Harkin	Research 2000 4/21-4/23	Tom Harkin	57	George Eichorn	28
IA	Tom Harkin	Research 2000 4/21-4/23	Tom Harkin	58	Steve Rathje	23
IA	Tom Harkin	Research 2000 4/21-4/23	Tom Harkin	59	Christopher Reed	20
KS	Pat Roberts	Research 2000 6/2-6/4	Slattery	38	Roberts	50
KY	McConnell	Rasmussen 5/22	Bruce Lunsford	49	McConnell	44
LA	Landrieu	Rasmussen 5/28	Landrieu	47	Kennedy	44
ME	Collins	Rasmussen 5/14	Allen	42	Collins	52
MA	Kerry	Rasmussen 5/29	Kerry	63	Jim Ogonowski	29
MA	Kerry	Rasmussen 5/29	Kerry	63	Jeff Beatty	25
MI	Levin	Rasmussen 5/7	Levin	54	Hoogendyk	37
MN	Coleman	Rasmussen 5/22	Franken	45	Coleman	47
MS-A	Cochran	Rasmussen 5/27	Fleming	35	Cochran	58
MS-B	Wicker	Rasmussen 5/27	Musgrove	47	Wicker	46
NE	Hagel	Research 2000 5/19-5/21	Kleeb	31	Johanns	58
NH	Sununu	Rasmussen 5/20	Shaheen	50	Sununu	43
NM	Domenici	SUSA 5/30-6/1	Tom Udall	60	Steve Pearce	35
NC	Dole	PPP 5/28-5/29	Kay Hagan	39	Dole	47
OK	Inhofe	Soonerpoll.com 12/16-12/19	Andrew Rice	19	Inhofe	60
OR	Smith	Rasmussen 5/7	Jeff Merkley	42	Smith	45
SD	Johnson	Rasmussen 3/4	Johnson	63	Joel Dykstra	28
TN	Alexander	Rasmussen 4/3	Bob Tuke	30	Alexander	59
TN	Alexander	Rasmussen 4/3	Mike Padgett	31	Alexander	58
TX	Cornyn	Baselice & Associates (R) 5/20-5/25	Noriega	33	Cornyn	49
TX	Cornyn	Research 2000 5/5-5/7	Noriega	44	Cornyn	48
VA	John Warner	Rasmussen 5/8	Mark Warner	55	Gilmore	37

Democrats currently lead in all Democratic-held seats and in 7 GOP-held seats (AK, CO, KY, MS, NH, NM, VA) – although there is considerable skepticism about Rasmussen’s Kentucky poll. That would mean ousting 4 GOP incumbents (Stevens, McConnell, Wicker, Sununu), although Wicker is merely an appointee to an open seat. The GOP has only one good pickup opportunity – Louisiana, where Landrieu is up by only 3. We are within 5 points of defeating incumbents in Minnesota, Oregon, and Texas (I don’t count GOP internal polls). This means we are less than a 5 point swing away from a 60 seat filibuster-proof majority, which relegates the GOP to the back seat where legislation is concerned.

Beyond that, we trail by only 8 points in North Carolina, 10 points in Maine, and 12 points in Kansas. Remember what the Virginia race looked like at this point in time last year.

57 – in hand. 60 – within our grasp. 63 – within reason.

Candidate filing is sailing along with lots of states now having completed candidate filings and others with a full slate of Democratic House candidate long before filings close.

Below the fold for details and once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.  

***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

3 more House races have a Democratic candidate that has filed in the last three weeks:

OK-01 – R+13,

OK-03 – R+18,

OK-04 – R+13,

But one race goes back to uncontested:

LA-01 – R+18,

So 419 races filled! This of course includes 236 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 183 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):

Districts with confirmed candidates – 183

Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 0

Districts with rumoured candidates – 2

Districts without any candidates – 3

Filing closed – No Democratic candidate – 11

The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:

AL-01 – R+12,

AL-02 – R+13,

AL-03 – R+4,

AL-04 – R+16,

AK-AL – R+14,

AZ-01 – R+2,

AZ-02 – R+9,

AZ-03 – R+6,

AZ-06 – R+12,

CA-02 – R+13,

CA-03 – R+7,

CA-04 – R+11,

CA-21 – R+13,

CA-24 – R+5,

CA-25 – R+7,

CA-26 – R+4,

CA-40 – R+8,

CA-41 – R+9,

CA-42 – R+10,

CA-44 – R+6,

CA-45 – R+3,

CA-46 – R+6,

CA-48 – R+8,

CA-49 – R+10,

CA-50 – R+5,

CA-52 – R+9,

CO-04 – R+9,

CO-05 – R+15.7,

CO-06 – R+10,

CT-04 – D+5,

DE-AL – D+7,

FL-01 – R+19,

FL-04 – R+16,

FL-05 – R+5,

FL-06 – R+8,

FL-07 – R+3,

FL-08 – R+3,

FL-09 – R+4,

FL-10 – D+1,

FL-12 – R+5,

FL-13 – R+4,

FL-14 – R+10,

FL-15 – R+4,

FL-18 – R+4,

FL-21 – R+6,

FL-24 – R+3,

FL-25 – R+4,

GA-01 – R+?,

GA-03 – R+?,

GA-06 – R+?,

GA-07 – R+?,

GA-09 – R+?,

GA-10 – R+?,

GA-11 – R+?,

ID-01 – R+19,

ID-02 – R+19,

IL-06 – R+2.9,

IL-10 – D+4,

IL-11 – R+1.1,

IL-13 – R+5,

IL-15 – R+6,

IL-16 – R+4,

IL-18 – R+5.5,

IL-19 – R+8,

IN-03 – R+16,

IN-04 – R+17,

IN-05 – R+20,

IN-06 – R+11,

IA-04 – D+0,

IA-05 – R+8,

KS-01 – R+20,

KS-04 – R+12,

KY-01 – R+10,

KY-02 – R+12.9,

KY-04 – R+11.7,

LA-04 – R+7,

MD-01 – R+10,

MD-06 – R+13,

MI-02 – R+9,

MI-03 – R+9,

MI-04 – R+3,

MI-06 – R+2.3,

MI-07 – R+2,

MI-08 – R+1.9,

MI-09 – R+0,

MI-10 – R+4,

MI-11 – R+1.2,

MN-02 – R+2.7,

MN-03 – R+0.5,

MN-06 – R+5,

MO-02 – R+9,

MO-06 – R+5,

MO-07 – R+14,

MO-08 – R+11,

MO-09 – R+7,

MS-03 – R+14,

MT-AL – R+11,

NE-01 – R+11,

NE-02 – R+9,

NE-03 – R+23.6,

NV-02 – R+8.2,

NV-03 – D+1,

NJ-02 – D+4.0,

NJ-03 – D+3.3,

NJ-04 – R+0.9,

NJ-05 – R+4,

NJ-07 – R+1,

NJ-11 – R+6,

NM-01 – D+2,

NM-02 – R+6,

NY-13 – D+1,

NY-23 – R+0.2,

NY-25 – D+3,

NY-26 – R+3,

NY-29 – R+5,

NC-03 – R+15,

NC-05 – R+15,

NC-06 – R+17,

NC-08 – R+3,

NC-09 – R+12,

NC-10 – R+15,

OH-01 – R+1,

OH-02 – R+13,

OH-03 – R+3,

OH-04 – R+14,

OH-05 – R+10,

OH-07 – R+6,

OH-08 – R+12,

OH-12 – R+0.7,

OH-14 – R+2,

OH-15 – R+1,

OH-16 – R+4,

OK-01 – R+13,

OK-03 – R+18,

OK-04 – R+13,

OK-05 – R+12,

OR-02 – R+11,

PA-03 – R+2,

PA-05 – R+10,

PA-06 – D+2.2,

PA-09 – R+15,

PA-15 – D+2,

PA-16 – R+11,

PA-18 – R+2,

PA-19 – R+12,

SC-01 – R+10,

SC-02 – R+9,

SC-03 – R+14,

SC-04 – R+15,

TN-01 – R+14,

TN-02 – R+11,

TN-03 – R+8,

TN-07 – R+12,

TX-03 – R+17,

TX-04 – R+17,

TX-06 – R+15,

TX-07 – R+16,

TX-08 – R+20,

TX-10 – R+13,

TX-12 – R+14,

TX-13 – R+18,

TX-19 – R+25,

TX-24 – R+15,

TX-26 – R+12,

TX-31 – R+15,

TX-32 – R+11,

UT-01 – R+26,

UT-03 – R+22,

VA-01 – R+9,

VA-02 – R+5.9,

VA-04 – R+5,

VA-05 – R+6,

VA-06 – R+11,

VA-07 – R+11,

VA-10 – R+5,

VA-11 – R+1,

WA-04 – R+13,

WA-05 – R+7.1,

WA-08 – D+2,

WV-02 – R+5,

WI-01 – R+2,

WI-06 – R+5,

WY-AL – R+19,

The following GOP held districts have a candidate that is expected to run but is yet to confirm:

None at this stage

The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!

LA-07 – R+7,

NY-03 – D+2.1,

The following districts have not a single rumoured candidate:

LA-01 – R+18,

LA-05 – R+10,

WI-05 – R+12,

And last but not least the list I did not want to have to include.

The following Republicans will not have a Democratic opponent in 2008:

AL-06 – R+25,

AR-03 – R+11,

CA-19 – R+10,

CA-22 – R+16,

KY-05 – R+8

TX-01 – R+17,

TX-02 – R+12,

TX-05 – R+16,

TX-11 – R+25,

TX-14 – R+14,

TX-21 – R+13,

Finally due praise to those states where we have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennesee, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia and Wyoming.

It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in New York and Wisconsin. Thats 42 states with a full slate, and 2 states with one race to fill!  

There are also 5 states where filing has closed where we do not have a full slate: Arkansas, Alabama, California, Kentucky and of course Texas. Lets hope the last 3 –  Louisiana, New York and Wisconsin fill out.

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see candidates in AZ-06, CA-42, FL-12, LA-06, MS-03, VA-04, VA-06 and WI-06; 8 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006! The other 2, TX-11 and AL-06, will again go uncontested by Team Blue in 2008.

With 11 uncontested Republicans we will not reach our great 2006 effort of 425 races filled but we will do really well nonetheless.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

I just had to do a diary on this story.  It’s simply too incredible to believe.  We all knew that republicans had no serious challenger for Montana’s Democratic Senator Max Baucus, but they did have a state Representative Michael Lange was was supposed to win their primary with little trouble.  Well, that didn’t happen.  In fact the guy who won the republican primary this week by a 13% margin could more accurately be called a socialist or Green party member than a republican.  

Meet 85 year old Bob Kelleher.  Until this week when he won the primary Kelleher didn’t even have his own domain website.  He had what amounted to an AOL personal webpage and essentially didn’t even campaign for the nomination.  Basically everything on his new website is “under construction” with dead-end links.

Here is Kelleher’s prior electoral history:

http://www.ourcampaigns.com/Ca…

1968 – Ran for MT-02 congressional district as a Democrat.  Lost the general by a 68-32% margin

1980, 1984, 1988, 1992 and 1996: – Ran for Montana Governor as a Democrat.  Lost every primary with less than 26% of the vote.

2002 – Ran for U.S. Senate as a Green and received 2% of the vote.

2004 – Ran for MT Governor as a Green and received 1.9% of the vote.

2006 – Ran for MT Senate as a Republican and received 4% of the vote.

That’s right- he’s run for office as a Democrat, Republican AND Green.

http://www.bobkelleher2008.com/

Some of his stances I pulled off of his old website before it was taken down:

http://www.votesmart.org/speec…

– In one of the republican debates Kelleher blasted his rivals for not pushing for serious gun control legislation.  Uhh… ya.  I’m sure pro-gun control candidates are wildly popular in Montana.

– Supports legalization of marijuana and other drugs.

– Anti Social Security Privatization

– Pro healthcare reform, apparently supports universal healthcare.

– In favor or eliminating the Bush Tax Cuts.

– Staunchly protectionist and anti free-trade.

– Wants the U.S. to change it’s government to European style Parlimentary form.  Yes… I’m dead serious.

– Wants immediate withdrawal from Iraq.

Needless to say this should be one of the most entertaining races of the cycle.  We have a republican candidate who is running on a more liberal platform than his democratic opponent Max Baucus, in a republican leaning state.

And one last thing, Kelleher has some kickass eyebrows.  I’d probably vote for him over Max Baucus, that’s for sure.