Tag: 2008

I have been blogging for Heather Ryan, and been a proud member of Ryan for Kentucky for a little over a month now. I have started my own ActBlue page in support of Heather, and asked my fellow Democrats around the country to contribute to Americans for Ryan. Well, many of you have responded, and I am very grateful. I have said that your contribution will be put to work immediately to defeat a sitting incumbent Republican and expand our Congressional majorities.

Well, the good news is the fruits of our labor are paying off!! Because of our netroots support, and support from all over the district we have been able to get a head start during primary season, a primary Heather is unopposed in, and have been able to get Heather’s name out there right now!! A quick drive around my hometown of Paducah lets me see just how valuable your support is, and it also shows me how Ryan for Kentucky is catching on with my neighbors here in Paducah. So, without delay I want to share with you the fruits of our labor!!! Driving around Paducah today, I saw a Ryan for Kentucky prescense!!:

This is just the start!! Democrats in Kentucky’s First District have a candidate they can be proud of!! Heather Ryan is young, smart, and ready to fight for our ideals!! They know that she will fight for the working American even harder than Exxon Eddie fights for billions of dollars in taxpayer funded corporate welfare:

The Budget Reconciliation Bill, signed by President Bush and passed by Congress, cut future spending for Medicare, Medicaid, Student Loans and even free and reduced lunches for poor children; all while giving a $2.3 Billion tax break to Oil Companies and affording a $5.7 billion slush fund to Pharmaceutical Companies (both of which Representative Ed Whitfield has personal financial investments and large campaign contributions).  Corporate welfare for profitable companies who donate heavily to Congressmen is corrupt and scandalous.  I will

work diligently against the culture of corruption which permeates the political system.

http://www.ryanforkentucky.com…

Yes, the citizens of Kentucky’s First District are waking up to the fact that Exxon Ed Whitfield will never lead in trying to bring about the changes we need. This is because not only has he taken tens of thousands in special interest money, but because he is actually invested in and profiting from the policies that impeed progress. Yes, Exxon Eddie will keep doling out welfare to Corporate America, because he is invested in them, not the workers of Kentucky.

We need a REAL Representative in Kentucky’s First District. We need a Representative that understands our citizens because she lives and works among them. We need a Representative that is invested in the working men and women of this district and indeed the whole country, not Exxon, Chevron and the Big Drug companies. We need Heather Ryan for Kentucky!!

Thanks so much for making this all happen. We are so proud of our grassroots support both within and without the district. Heather is very good at making every penney count as you can see.

Our race is just getting started. If we get the resources we need, we WILL defeat Exxon Ed Whitfield this fall and return this seat to where it was for generations, Democratic hands. To do this we need your continued support!! Please consider supporting me in my attempt to raise $1500 for Heather by May 20. As you can see, your money IS going to work IMMEDIATELY to expand our Congressional majorities. Please support the continuation of our work here:

http://www.actblue.com/page/am…

To those of you who have already supported Americans for Ryan, you have my humble thanks. Together, we WILL make a difference in this race and our Congress!!!

Best wishes fellow Democrats!!

By now, y’all know that President Bush, Governor Jindal, and Senator Vitter are coming to town tonight to raise money for John N. Kennedy.

This is why Senator Landrieu’s campaign just sent out an email asking for a mere $5 to show Mr. Kennedy and his brand new amigos in the Republican Party that she’s got more grassroots support.

So if you can forego that cup of coffee from CC’s, PJ’s or Starbucks for the next few days, drop her some coin by clicking on the image to the right.  Let’s show the Republican Party that they cannot count on Louisiana this fall.  

Another Busy Week – Less Than 1 Day To Go!!!

I started out the week on Monday with a trip to State College to meet with the PSU College Democrats. I took the time to give special thanks to the PSU Dems for their hard work getting students registered to vote in this election. It really is encouraging to see how interested young voters throughout the district are about this election. I think our young people realize that they have to get involved and make a difference in this election.

Later in the week on Thursday, I had an afternoon radio interview on WPHB followed in the evening with a trip to Clarion for the Clarion University Young Dems Spring Unity Banquet. The Clarion Young Dems have a very involved and active group. They have had representation at every 5th District candidate event held in Clarion throughout the campaign. It was great to get a final chance to meet with them before Election Day. We also had people in attendance throughout the day at the stops by President Clinton in Brookville, St. Marys and Clearfield.  The crowd in Clearfield to see Pres. Clinton wrapped around the front of the Clearfield Middle School and wrapped around onto Mill Rd.  Everyone was in high spirits and thankfully the weather cooperated.  Our campaign stopped and talked about the issues important to citizens of the 5th District and we feel that our message was warmly received by the gathered crowd.

Friday, I traveled to DuBois to participate in Eyes Wide Open, a traveling exhibit to help educate the public on the real costs of the Iraq war. The exhibit contained several banners that describe the monetary costs of the war and compares what we could do here in the United States with the funds. The most moving part of the exhibit was the 183 pairs of military boots with the names attached of the fallen PA soldiers and civilians who have died in Iraq during the conflict. It was a very moving exhibit and should make our resolve even stronger to end the conflict and bring the troops home as soon as possible.

On Saturday, we attended the annual Blue White Game at Penn State. It was a warm sunny day and it was a lot of fun working the tailgate parties in the parking lot. However, I found 2 things: 1 – The majority of Penn State fans travel in from outside of the 5th district, and 2 – A good number start drinking the hard stuff early in the morning and have no interest in politics once the alcohol takes effect. I do want to thank State Rep. Scott Conklin, the PSU College Dems and the Obama State College Campaign Staff for hosting a great tailgate event.  One note from the blogger:  You can see more about the Blue White Game in the CDT article written by Mike Joseph.  It can be found here:although I’m not sure if I would make a good caddy.

The week ended today with a trip back over to Happy Valley to work the line waiting to attend Sen. Hillary Clinton’s visit to Penn State. It was an excited group waiting to see Sen. Clinton and their spirits were high in spite of a cold downpour that started around 5:30. I really enjoy the one on one campaigning that we were able to do both Saturday and Sunday.

I’ll close this last report before Election Day with a round of thanks to everyone who has helped with the campaign thus far. We started back in mid-January and what has been accomplished so far is because of everyone who has been involved. I also want to thank and wish the best of luck to all the Democratic candidates who are on the ballot on Tuesday. It’s been a privilege to campaign and attend events with these people.

Finally, I want to give a special thank you to my 2 fellow Democratic candidates in the 5th District race. I truly admire the way Rick, Bill and I have focused on the issues of this campaign, met with the voters and kept our campaigns positive. I’ve told several people over the last week, our party and our eventual nominee in the 5th district will be stronger because of the positive campaigns all 3 of us ran. Regardless of who wins on Tuesday, we are tested and ready to take on the Republican candidate in November. I have a stronger opinion today than I did in January when I started the campaign – a Democrat WILL be elected in the 5th Congressional District in 2008.

One final note: Please tell as many people as you can – Support Mark B. McCracken for Congress – #1 on the Democratic Ballot.

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

————————————————————————————————–

This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

Candidate filing is sailing along with lots of states now having completed candidate filings and others with a full slate of democratic House candidate long before filings close.

Below the fold for details and once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.  

***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

Lots of House races now have Democratic candidates that have bobbed up in the last few weeks:

FL-06 – R+8,

GA-06 – R+?,

MI-08 – R+1.9,

NJ-02 – D+4.0,

VA-01 – R+9,

WA-05 – R+7.1,

So 413 races filled! This of course includes 234 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 179 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):

Districts with confirmed candidates – 179

Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 0

Districts with rumoured candidates – 5

Districts without any candidates – 6

Filing closed – No Democratic candidate – 11

The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:

AL-01 – R+12,

AL-02 – R+13,

AL-03 – R+4,

AL-04 – R+16,

AK-AL – R+14,

AZ-01 – R+2,

AZ-02 – R+9,

AZ-03 – R+6,

AZ-06 – R+12,

CA-02 – R+13,

CA-03 – R+7,

CA-04 – R+11,

CA-21 – R+13,

CA-24 – R+5,

CA-25 – R+7,

CA-26 – R+4,

CA-40 – R+8,

CA-41 – R+9,

CA-42 – R+10,

CA-44 – R+6,

CA-45 – R+3,

CA-46 – R+6,

CA-48 – R+8,

CA-49 – R+10,

CA-50 – R+5,

CA-52 – R+9,

CO-04 – R+9,

CO-05 – R+15.7,

CO-06 – R+10,

CT-04 – D+5,

DE-AL – D+7,

FL-01 – R+19,

FL-04 – R+16,

FL-05 – R+5,

FL-06 – R+8,

FL-07 – R+3,

FL-08 – R+3,

FL-09 – R+4,

FL-10 – D+1,

FL-12 – R+5,

FL-13 – R+4,

FL-14 – R+10,

FL-15 – R+4,

FL-18 – R+4,

FL-21 – R+6,

FL-24 – R+3,

FL-25 – R+4,

GA-01 – R+?,

GA-06 – R+?,

GA-07 – R+?,

GA-09 – R+?,

GA-10 – R+?,

GA-11 – R+?,

ID-01 – R+19,

ID-02 – R+19,

IL-06 – R+2.9,

IL-10 – D+4,

IL-11 – R+1.1,

IL-13 – R+5,

IL-15 – R+6,

IL-16 – R+4,

IL-18 – R+5.5,

IL-19 – R+8,

IN-03 – R+16,

IN-04 – R+17,

IN-05 – R+20,

IN-06 – R+11,

IA-04 – D+0,

IA-05 – R+8,

KS-01 – R+20,

KS-04 – R+12,

KY-01 – R+10,

KY-02 – R+12.9,

KY-04 – R+11.7,

LA-01 – R+18,

LA-04 – R+7,

LA-06 – R+7,

MD-01 – R+10,

MD-06 – R+13,

MI-02 – R+9,

MI-04 – R+3,

MI-07 – R+2,

MI-08 – R+1.9,

MI-09 – R+0,

MI-11 – R+1.2,

MN-02 – R+2.7,

MN-03 – R+0.5,

MN-06 – R+5,

MO-02 – R+9,

MO-06 – R+5,

MO-07 – R+14,

MO-08 – R+11,

MO-09 – R+7,

MS-01 – R+10,

MS-03 – R+14,

MT-AL – R+11,

NE-01 – R+11,

NE-02 – R+9,

NE-03 – R+23.6,

NV-02 – R+8.2,

NV-03 – D+1,

NJ-02 – D+4.0,

NJ-03 – D+3.3,

NJ-04 – R+0.9,

NJ-05 – R+4,

NJ-07 – R+1,

NJ-11 – R+6,

NM-01 – D+2,

NM-02 – R+6,

NY-13 – D+1,

NY-23 – R+0.2,

NY-25 – D+3,

NY-26 – R+3,

NY-29 – R+5,

NC-03 – R+15,

NC-05 – R+15,

NC-06 – R+17,

NC-08 – R+3,

NC-09 – R+12,

NC-10 – R+15,

OH-01 – R+1,

OH-02 – R+13,

OH-03 – R+3,

OH-04 – R+14,

OH-05 – R+10,

OH-07 – R+6,

OH-08 – R+12,

OH-12 – R+0.7,

OH-14 – R+2,

OH-15 – R+1,

OH-16 – R+4,

OK-05 – R+12,

OR-02 – R+11,

PA-03 – R+2,

PA-05 – R+10,

PA-06 – D+2.2,

PA-09 – R+15,

PA-15 – D+2,

PA-16 – R+11,

PA-18 – R+2,

PA-19 – R+12,

SC-01 – R+10,

SC-02 – R+9,

SC-03 – R+14,

SC-04 – R+15,

TN-01 – R+14,

TN-02 – R+11,

TN-03 – R+8,

TN-07 – R+12,

TX-03 – R+17,

TX-04 – R+17,

TX-06 – R+15,

TX-07 – R+16,

TX-08 – R+20,

TX-10 – R+13,

TX-12 – R+14,

TX-13 – R+18,

TX-19 – R+25,

TX-24 – R+15,

TX-26 – R+12,

TX-31 – R+15,

TX-32 – R+11,

UT-01 – R+26,

UT-03 – R+22,

VA-01 – R+9,

VA-02 – R+5.9,

VA-04 – R+5,

VA-05 – R+6,

VA-06 – R+11,

VA-07 – R+11,

VA-10 – R+5,

VA-11 – R+1,

WA-04 – R+13,

WA-05 – R+7.1,

WA-08 – D+2,

WV-02 – R+5,

WI-01 – R+2,

WI-06 – R+5,

WY-AL – R+19,

The following GOP held districts have a candidate that is expected to run but is yet to confirm:

None at this stage

The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!

GA-03 – R+?,

LA-07 – R+7,

NY-03 – D+2.1,

OK-03 – R+18,

OK-04 – R+13,

The following districts have not a single rumoured candidate:

LA-05 – R+10,

MI-03 – R+9,

MI-06 – R+2.3,

MI-10 – R+4,

OK-01 – R+13,

WI-05 – R+12,

And last but not least the list I did not want to have to include.

The following Republicans will not have a Democratic opponent in 2008:

AL-06 – R+25,

AR-03 – R+11,

CA-19 – R+10,

CA-22 – R+16,

KY-05 – R+8

TX-01 – R+17,

TX-02 – R+12,

TX-05 – R+16,

TX-11 – R+25,

TX-14 – R+14,

TX-21 – R+13,

Finally due praise to those states where we have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennesee, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia and Wyoming.

It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in Georgia, New York and Wisconsin. Thats 39 states with a full slate, and 3 states with one race to fill!  

There are also 5 states where filing has closed where we do not have a full slate: Arkansas, Alabama, California, Kentucky and of course Texas. Lets hope the last 3 Louisiana, Michigan and Oklahoma fill out.

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see candidates in AZ-06, CA-42, FL-12, LA-06, MS-03, VA-04, VA-06 and WI-06; 8 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006! The other 2, TX-11 and AL-06, will again go uncontested by Team Blue in 2008.

With 11 uncontested Republicans we will not reach our great 2006 effort of 425 races filled but we will do really well nonetheless.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

(From the diaries with minor edits – promoted by DavidNYC)

Below is a handy table of all the verifiable House polls I could find for the current election cycle. Special election polls are only included for upcoming elections, not for those that are already over. Every poll contains a link and an exact date range. Polling for candidates who have dropped out or decided against running is not included.

Cross posted from Election Inspection.

District	Incumbent	Poll	Dem Candidate	%	Rep Candidate	%
AL-02	Terry Everett (R)	Anzalone Liszt 10/2-10/4	Bobby Bright	43	Harri Anne Smith	38
AL-02	Terry Everett (R)	Anzalone Liszt 10/2-10/4	Bobby Bright	46	Jay Love	27
AL-05	Bud Cramer (D)	Capital Survey Research Center 4/1	Parker Griffith	48	Wayne Parker	32
AK-AL	Don Young (R)	Research 2000 12/3-12/6	Ethan Berkowitz	49	Don Young	42
AZ-08	Gabby Giffords (D)	Summit Group (R) 12/3-12/4	Gabby Giffords	36	Tim Bee	30
FL-13	Vern Buchanan (R)	Public Opinion Strategies 3/5-3/6	Christine Jennings	37	Vern Buchanan	53
FL-24	Tom Feeney (R)	Garin-Hart-Yang 7/9-7/11	Suzanne Kosmas	23	Tom Feeney	42
IL-10	Mark Kirk (R)	Garin-Hart-Yang 2/7-2/8	Dan Seals	39	Mark Kirk	46
LA-06	Richard Baker (R)	Anzalone Liszt 4/8-4/10	Don Cazayoux	49	Woody Jenkins	42
LA-06	Richard Baker (R)	Anzalone Liszt 3/16-3/20	Don Cazayoux	49	Woody Jenkins	44
MD-01	Wayne Gilchrest (R)	Moore Information 1/15-1/16	Frank Kratovil	22	Andy Harris	37
MI-07	Tim Walberg (R)	EPIC-MRA 2/27-3/2	Mark Schauer	40	Tim Walberg	51
MI-09	Joe Knollenberg (R)	Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 10/31-11/02	Gary Peters	35	Joe Knollenberg	42
MS-01	Roger Wicker (R)	Anzalone Liszt 4/3-4/7	Travis Childers	41	Greg Davis	40
NM-01	Heather Wilson (R)	Public Opinion Strategies (R) 10/8-10/9	Martin Heinrich	33	Darren White	51
NY-25	Jim Walsh (R)	Global Strategy Group (D) 2/16-2/20	Dan Maffei	41	Peter Cappuccilli	29
NC-08	Robin Hayes (R)	Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 11/13-11/15	Larry Kissell	49	Robin Hayes	47
OH-02	Jean Schmidt (R)	Tarrance Group (R) 3/11-3/12	Vic Wulsin	33	Jean Schmidt	51
PA-10	Chris Carney (D)	Momentum Analysis 12/6-12/9	Chris Carney	53	Dan Meuser	23
PA-10	Chris Carney (D)	Momentum Analysis 12/6-12/9	Chris Carney	55	Chris Hackett	21
TX-07	John Culberson (R)	IVR 4/8	Michael Skelly	39	John Culberson	57
WY-AL	Barbara Cubin (R)	Mason-Dixon 1/18-1/21	Gary Trauner	41	Cynthia Lummis	40

Based on the polling above, Democrats are likely to pick up at least 5-10 seats, and that’s with many competitive races yet unpolled and many campaigns just starting to rev up. Although there are a few seats held by Democrats that are in danger, none yet polled show us losing to the GOP.

Keep an eye on EI for House and Senate polls updated daily.

6 Counties in 1 Week:

Monday — Tioga County:   I started out the week with a day long visit to Tioga County with the day’s agenda coordinated by Emily Rizzo.  Emily took me around to several communities in Tioga County including Wellsboro, which included a visit to the Tioga County Courthouse to meet the elected officials, and to Mansfield where we stopped to meet with the staff at the Obama headquarters.  I found Tioga County to be one of the most scenic counties, not only in the 5th district, but in the entire state.

The day ended with a candidate forum that was attended by 10 of the 12 candidates (the 2 missing candidates had people stand in for them) for the 5th district seat.  For the first time at one of these multi-candidate events, I drew the 12th position so I had to sit and wait as every other candidate did their 10 minute presentations.   Here is what the Elmira Star Gazette wrote about my presentation:

“After sitting silent for two hours, Democrat Mark McCracken, a Clearfield County commissioner, finally got his turn to speak.   He said the nation’s $9.4 trillion debt was tragic and that his priority would be getting the federal budget back in order.   “We’re in a deeper hole than we have ever been in before,” he said.    “This is a threat to our national security.   Foreign interests could pull the rug out from under us at any time.”

“Congress also needs to address energy costs and supplies…We missed a wake-up call in the ’70s,” he said. “We really need to get an energy plan in place. We need to be looking at alternate energy sources.    This is our second wake-up call. We’d better take it.”

Tuesday — Clarion County:   Tuesday evening, Kelly and I made the trip to Clarion County for the Spring Democratic Banquet.  Like Democrats all over the region, the folks in Clarion are excited about our party’s prospects for 2008.

Wednesday — Elk and Mifflin Counties:  Wednesday morning brought a trip to St.Marys for a candidate forum in front of members of the Allegheny Hardwoods Utilization Group AHUG.  The members of AHUG quizzed 11 of the 12 candidates on where we stood in regards to the lumber and timber business that is so important to the economy in north central Pennsylvania.

Wednesday evening brought a trip to Lewistown to appear at a candidate forum sponsored by the Mifflin County Farm Bureau.  It was decided that the 3 Democratic candidates would have our own portion of the forum since the Republican candidates would be arriving later due to party event also being held in Lewistown.

Thursday — Clearfield County:   The DuBois Democratic Committee sponsored a forum for the 3 Democratic candidates at the Penn State DuBois Campus.  PCN was on hand to record the forum which they will run several times over the next few days.  

I have to congratulate the people who put the event together.  It was a unique format which included the standard Q & A, followed by a 1 on 1 session with a moderator, then questions from the audience and ended with 5 minute closing statements from each candidate.  The format was different from any event we’ve participated in thus far and was a good challenge for me personally and I think for the other 2 candidates as well.

Friday — Centre County:  Friday evening Kelly and I traveled to the Tussey Mountain Lodge to attend the Centre County Democrats Spring Banquet.  This event turned into a celebration of the extraordinary gains in voter registration the Democratic party has made in central Pennsylvania.  Centre County led the way with the excitement for Sen. Obama’s candidacy leading to a huge wave of young people registering Democratic.  But, the excitement doesn’t end in Centre County as my home county of Clearfield and Rick Vilello’s home county of Clinton also turned “BLUE”!   Hmmm, with everything going the Democratic way, maybe a Democrat can win the 5th district after all.

Saturday — Clearfield County: I spent the day working on behalf of the Obama campaign doing some door to door canvassing at the invitation of Jody Grumblatt.  Jody has been putting her heart and soul into campaigning on behalf of Sen. Obama.  She was even out on the Clearfield Courthouse Plaza on a cold day a few weeks back registering voters.

Sunday — Clearfield County:  Kelly, Amanda and I went to the DuBois Democratic Committee spaghetti dinner.  Many campaigns were on hand for this well attended annual event.  

Auditor General Jack Wagner was the main speaker with Jay Paterno on hand to speak for the Obama campaign.    Rick Vilello and I each spoke to the crowd to make our case for votes on April 22nd.

Maybe the Wrong McCracken in on the Ballot:  Kelly had a very lucky week.    She won 4 tickets to a Pirate baseball game at the Clarion County Dinner and really cleaned up at the spaghetti dinner in DuBois winning 2 gift baskets.  

Amanda was really excited with the one gift basket that had a porcelain doll that she really liked.

We’re heading into the last full week of the primary campaign and there are a lot of miles left to travel.    Please be sure to remind your family and friends to vote on April 22nd.  Of course, a mention to vote for the 5th district candidate listed in the #1 position on the ballot would be appreciated.

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate for Congress

————————————————————————————————–

This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

New Rasmussen poll on the Alaska Senate race!

Rasmussen: Alaska Senate 4/7, 500 LV, MOE +/-4.5%

Mark Begich (D): 45%

Ted Stevens (R): 46%

Some other candidate: 4%

Not sure: 5%

Lots of pundits were quick to discount last December’s R2K poll for DKos, but they can’t deny it any longer – this race is officially a Tossup.

More recent polls below the flip!

cross-posted from Election Inspection

Latest Senate Polls for 2008:

State	Incumbent	Poll	Dem Candidate	%	Rep Candidate	%
AL	Sessions	Rasmussen 4/2	Figures	36	Sessions	57
AK	Stevens	Rasmussen 4/7	Begich	45	Stevens	46
CO	Allard	Rasmussen 3/17	Mark Udall	46	Schaffer	43
GA	Chambliss	Rasmussen 3/20	Vernon Jones	30	Chambliss	56
GA	Chambliss	Rasmussen 3/20	Dale Cardwell	36	Chambliss	52
GA	Chambliss	Rasmussen 3/20	Jim Martin	33	Chambliss	51
ME	Collins	Rasmussen 4/3	Allen	38	Collins	54
MN	Coleman	Rasmussen 3/19	Franken	46	Coleman	48
NH	Sununu	ARG 3/14-3/17	Shaheen	47	Sununu	33
NJ	Lautenberg	Rasmussen 3/27	Lautenberg	54	Joe Pennacchio	36
NJ	Lautenberg	Rasmussen 3/27	Lautenberg	54	Murray Sabrin	35
SD	Johnson	Rasmussen 3/4	Johnson	63	Joel Dykstra	28
TN	Alexander	Rasmussen 4/3	Bob Tuke	30	Alexander	59
TN	Alexander	Rasmussen 4/3	Mike Padgett	31	Alexander	58
VA	John Warner	Rasmussen 3/26	Mark Warner	55	Gilmore	39

Today’s new poll is Alaska, where Rasmussen shows a Tossup. Since March, 4 races have been polled as Solid Republican Hold (AL, GA, ME, TN), 2 races are Solid Democratic Hold (NJ, SD), 3 races are Tossups (AK, CO, MN), and 2 races are Solid Democratic Gain. New Mexico hasn’t been polled since February, but it too rates Solid Democratic Gain, while Oregon’s February polls shows it to be Solid Republican Hold at this time. That is regardless of whether Wilson, Pearce, Merkley, or Novick wins their respective primaries. Louisiana has not been polled since December and rated Slight Democratic Hold at that time.

For races where the most recent poll is older than March, check out Election Inspection’s Senate Polls page.

Aight, y’all … in less than month, voters will head back to the polls and decide which candidate best represents Louisiana values. Don Cazayoux’s campaign is putting the final touches on their sprint to the finish and they need our help to put them over the top. It’s time to get their message out and make sure all the voters know that Don will stand up for Louisiana families.

Don has promised to stand up for Louisiana’s middle class families by fighting to provide access to high quality, affordable health care, while at the same time making it easier for small businesses to provide health care to their employees. He’s also committed to keeping the lower tax rates for middle class families, so they can keep what they earn, and reinvest it right here in Louisiana.

CQ Quarterly called this race a “No Clear Favorite,” which is astonishing, as this district has been represented by a Republican for the last 30+ years. Even the Cook Political Report called a Cazayoux-Jenkins matchup “a perfect storm for Democrats”:

Insiders on both sides agree the nomination of the current favorites – moderate Democratic state Rep. Don Cazayoux and GOP newspaper publisher Woody Jenkins – would present something akin to a perfect storm for Democrats in the May 3rd special general election.

Cazayoux, much like neighboring Democratic Rep. Charlie Melancon did in 2004, could very plausibly take advantage of GOP disunity and use his rural background to cut into the heart of the district’s GOP base.

Folks, we can win this one. But we need to step it up. You can donate, or volunteer. In order to win this one, we all have to step it up.

Let’s set a goal of $10,000 from the netroots. Right now, Don’s raised $60,810 from 110 donors over at ActBlue.

Let’s make it $70,810 in 7 days. I know we can do that.

Donate.

Volunteer.

IF IT’S TUESDAY, THIS MUST BE BELLEFONTE:

The headline says it all as it was a very busy and sometimes hectic week.  I started out the week Sunday and Monday in Harrisburg where I was attending the County Commissioners Association of Pennsylvania spring conference.   I really wish I could have been in State College to see Senator Barack Obama’s historic visit to Penn State but, I had already scheduled to attend the CCAP conference several weeks ago.   I’ve heard from people who attended and they were all still buzzing late in the week from the rally.

I left Harrisburg Monday afternoon to attend the Lycoming County Democratic Dinner in Williamsport on Monday evening.   Lycoming County Chair Jessie Bloom put together a fantastic event that was so well attended they filled up 2 rooms with Democrats who are excited about 2008.  

Lycoming County is split between the 5th and the 10th congressional districts.  As I was working the rooms, I shook hands with one gentleman who apologized and said “sorry, you just wasted a handshake, I’m from the 10th district”.  I countered back to him, “No, it wasn’t wasted, if I met a Democrat who is going to be working to get Democrats elected in 2008 that was good enough for me”.  All the candidates in attendance got the chance to speak and Auditor General Jack Wagner was the keynote speaker for the evening.

Tuesday brought 2 events in Centre County with an afternoon forum for the 5th District Democratic candidates at the Foxdale Retirement Community in State College.  Art Goldschmidt moderated the event and the residents asked many important questions.  

Then it was on to Bellefonte for a candidate’s forum with the 3 Democratic candidates taking center stage from 6:30 to 7:30 with the Republicans getting their chance from 8:00 to 9:30.

Wednesday brought an early morning trip to Clarion for legislative breakfast sponsored by the Clarion Chamber of Commerce.   This event had 16 candidates, 5 for the PA House seat being vacated by Rep. Fred McIllhatten and 11 of the 12 candidates for the 5th District seat.   Wednesday evening had us back in Centre County for the League of Women Voters debate.  Again, the Democratic candidates went first from 7:00 to 8:00 with the Republican candidates following.  Is it wrong to think the Republican candidates had viewers tuning out in favor of American Idol both nights?

Also on Wednesday, we released the news that both the IBEW Local #5 and the Ironworkers Local #772 have endorsed my candidacy.   It is important to me that we get endorsements from organizations that represent the hard working people of the 5th Congressional District.

You can read the endorsement letters here!

Thursday we had the Jefferson County Democratic spring banquet in Reynoldsville followed by a candidate forum for the Democratic candidates at the IBEW building in Clearfield.

Friday brought an important visitor to Clearfield County as US Senator Richard Durbin, the Assistant Majority Leader (also known as the Majority Whip), stopped in Clearfield and DuBois to support the Obama for President campaign.  It really is an exciting time for Democrats in central Pennsylvania as we are getting real attention from the presidential campaigns for the first time in my lifetime.

The longest day of the week was Saturday.  I was up a 5:15 AM to drive to Warren for a Democratic breakfast at 9:00 AM.  I found my theme that communities in the 5th district share many similarities took a new twist on Saturday morning.  The Clearfield County Courthouse sets at the corner of Second and Market streets and, believe it or not, the building where the Warren County breakfast was held was on the corner of Second and Market streets.  I pointed this coincidence out and the crowd got a chuckle from my observation.  I shared the microphone with 3 of the candidates running for the 3rd congressional district along with fellow 5th district candidate Rick Vilello.  We also heard from Jeff Eggleston for the Obama campaign and Congressman Marion Berry for the Clinton campaign.

Then it was on to Clarion for a League of Women Voters debate at Clarion University at 2 PM.  Rick Vilello and I shared the stage with 7 of the 9 Republican candidates for a joint debate.  Rick and I did the Democratic party proud as we addressed the issues important to the hard working people of the district.  The event concluded with a brief verbal skirmish between 2 of the Republican candidates during the closing statements.  I was very pleased when the Clarion County Democratic Chairman and several people in the audience came up and congratulated both of the Democratic candidates for our performances.

Saturday ended in Ridgway with the Elk County Democratic Spring Banquet.  Kelly joined me in Ridgway to hear 2 keynote speakers, Congressman Marion Berry representing the Clinton campaign and Jay Paterno representing the Obama campaign.  And, I can’t forget to mention that Victor Ordonez represented the campaign in Mifflin County for their spring dinner on Saturday evening.  A big thank you to Victor for making the trip to Lewistown.  It would have been impossible to do the debate in Clarion and also make it to Lewistown.

It was a long day to end a long week but I feel our campaign made great progress over the last 7 days.  The only downside to this is the reality that campaigning in such a large district is taking a toll on the family life.  Kelly and I knew what we were getting into back in January but it is difficult now that we are in the middle of the campaign.  April 22nd is coming fast and it will be nice once the outcome is known.  Either we will be campaigning through November or life will settle back down.

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate for Congress

————————————————————————————————–

This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

Candidate filing is sailing along with lots of states now having completed candidate filings and others with a full slate of democratic House candidate long before filings close.

Below the fold for details and once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.  

***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

Lots of House races now have Democratic candidates that have bobbed up in the last few weeks:

GA-07 – R+?,

GA-11 – R+?,

ID-02 – R+19,

SC-03 – R+14,

SC-04 – R+15,

TN-01 – R+14,

TN-02 – R+11,

TN-03 – R+8,

TN-07 – R+12,

UT-03 – R+22,

But three races go to the uncontested in 2008 list:

AL-06 – R+25,

CA-19 – R+10, (our candidate withdrew)

CA-22 – R+16,

So 407 races filled! This of course includes 234 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 173 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):

Districts with confirmed candidates – 173

Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 2

Districts with rumoured candidates – 9

Districts without any candidates – 6

Filing closed – No Democratic candidate – 11

The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:

AL-01 – R+12,

AL-02 – R+13,

AL-03 – R+4,

AL-04 – R+16,

AK-AL – R+14,

AZ-01 – R+2,

AZ-02 – R+9,

AZ-03 – R+6,

AZ-06 – R+12,

CA-02 – R+13,

CA-03 – R+7,

CA-04 – R+11,

CA-21 – R+13,

CA-24 – R+5,

CA-25 – R+7,

CA-26 – R+4,

CA-40 – R+8,

CA-41 – R+9,

CA-42 – R+10,

CA-44 – R+6,

CA-45 – R+3,

CA-46 – R+6,

CA-48 – R+8,

CA-49 – R+10,

CA-50 – R+5,

CA-52 – R+9,

CO-04 – R+9,

CO-05 – R+15.7,

CO-06 – R+10,

CT-04 – D+5,

DE-AL – D+7,

FL-01 – R+19,

FL-04 – R+16,

FL-05 – R+5,

FL-07 – R+3,

FL-08 – R+3,

FL-09 – R+4,

FL-10 – D+1,

FL-12 – R+5,

FL-13 – R+4,

FL-14 – R+10,

FL-15 – R+4,

FL-18 – R+4,

FL-21 – R+6,

FL-24 – R+3,

FL-25 – R+4,

GA-01 – R+?,

GA-07 – R+?,

GA-09 – R+?,

GA-10 – R+?,

GA-11 – R+?,

ID-01 – R+19,

ID-02 – R+19,

IL-06 – R+2.9,

IL-10 – D+4,

IL-11 – R+1.1,

IL-13 – R+5,

IL-15 – R+6,

IL-16 – R+4,

IL-18 – R+5.5,

IL-19 – R+8,

IN-03 – R+16,

IN-04 – R+17,

IN-05 – R+20,

IN-06 – R+11,

IA-04 – D+0,

IA-05 – R+8,

KS-01 – R+20,

KS-04 – R+12,

KY-01 – R+10,

KY-02 – R+12.9,

KY-04 – R+11.7,

LA-01 – R+18,

LA-04 – R+7,

LA-06 – R+7,

MD-01 – R+10,

MD-06 – R+13,

MI-02 – R+9,

MI-04 – R+3,

MI-07 – R+2,

MI-09 – R+0,

MI-11 – R+1.2,

MN-02 – R+2.7,

MN-03 – R+0.5,

MN-06 – R+5,

MO-02 – R+9,

MO-06 – R+5,

MO-07 – R+14,

MO-08 – R+11,

MO-09 – R+7,

MS-01 – R+10,

MS-03 – R+14,

MT-AL – R+11,

NE-01 – R+11,

NE-02 – R+9,

NE-03 – R+23.6,

NV-02 – R+8.2,

NV-03 – D+1,

NJ-03 – D+3.3,

NJ-04 – R+0.9,

NJ-05 – R+4,

NJ-07 – R+1,

NJ-11 – R+6,

NM-01 – D+2,

NM-02 – R+6,

NY-13 – D+1,

NY-23 – R+0.2,

NY-25 – D+3,

NY-26 – R+3,

NY-29 – R+5,

NC-03 – R+15,

NC-05 – R+15,

NC-06 – R+17,

NC-08 – R+3,

NC-09 – R+12,

NC-10 – R+15,

OH-01 – R+1,

OH-02 – R+13,

OH-03 – R+3,

OH-04 – R+14,

OH-05 – R+10,

OH-07 – R+6,

OH-08 – R+12,

OH-12 – R+0.7,

OH-14 – R+2,

OH-15 – R+1,

OH-16 – R+4,

OK-05 – R+12,

OR-02 – R+11,

PA-03 – R+2,

PA-05 – R+10,

PA-06 – D+2.2,

PA-09 – R+15,

PA-15 – D+2,

PA-16 – R+11,

PA-18 – R+2,

PA-19 – R+12,

SC-01 – R+10,

SC-02 – R+9,

SC-03 – R+14,

SC-04 – R+15,

TN-01 – R+14,

TN-02 – R+11,

TN-03 – R+8,

TN-07 – R+12,

TX-03 – R+17,

TX-04 – R+17,

TX-06 – R+15,

TX-07 – R+16,

TX-08 – R+20,

TX-10 – R+13,

TX-12 – R+14,

TX-13 – R+18,

TX-19 – R+25,

TX-24 – R+15,

TX-26 – R+12,

TX-31 – R+15,

TX-32 – R+11,

UT-01 – R+26,

UT-03 – R+22,

VA-02 – R+5.9,

VA-04 – R+5,

VA-05 – R+6,

VA-06 – R+11,

VA-07 – R+11,

VA-10 – R+5,

VA-11 – R+1,

WA-04 – R+13,

WA-08 – D+2,

WV-02 – R+5,

WI-01 – R+2,

WI-06 – R+5,

WY-AL – R+19,

The following GOP held districts have a candidate that is expected to run but is yet to confirm:

NJ-02 – D+4.0,

WA-05 – R+7.1,

The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!

FL-06 – R+8,

GA-03 – R+?,

GA-06 – R+?,

LA-07 – R+7,

MI-08 – R+1.9,

NY-03 – D+2.1,

OK-03 – R+18,

OK-04 – R+13,

VA-01 – R+9,

The following districts have not a single rumoured candidate:

LA-05 – R+10,

MI-03 – R+9,

MI-06 – R+2.3,

MI-10 – R+4,

OK-01 – R+13,

WI-05 – R+12,

And last but not least the list I did not want to have to include.

The following Republicans will not have a Democratic opponent in 2008:

AL-06 – R+25,

AR-03 – R+11,

CA-19 – R+10,

CA-22 – R+16,

KY-05 – R+8

TX-01 – R+17,

TX-02 – R+12,

TX-05 – R+16,

TX-11 – R+25,

TX-14 – R+14,

TX-21 – R+13,

Finally due praise to those states where we have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennesee, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia and Wyoming.

It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in Florida, New Jersey, New York, Virginia, Washington and Wisconsin. Thats 35 states with a full slate, and 6 states with one race to fill!  That is more than 80% of the states with a full or nearly full slate of candidates 7 months before election day, an impressive feat indeed!

There are also 5 states where filing has closed where we do not have a full slate: Arkansas, Alabama, California, Kentucky and of course Texas. Lets hope the rest fill out.

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see candidates in AZ-06, CA-42, FL-12, LA-06, MS-03, VA-04, VA-06 and WI-06; 8 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006! The other 2, TX-11 and AL-06, will again go uncontested by Team Blue in 2008.

With 11 uncontested Republicans we will not reach our great 2006 effort of 425 races filled but we will do really well nonetheless.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***