Tag: Redistricting

• AR-Sen: Blanche Lincoln is retooling her ad message quite a bit, now that it’s come crashing home to her that she actually has to suck up to that annoying Democratic base for a few weeks in order to win her runoff in two weeks. Her new ad features lots of Obama footage, and highlights her support of the stimulus package and… well, “support of” might be overstating it, so her vote for HCR. Compare that with her old ad saying “I don’t answer to my party. I answer to Arkansas.”

• IL-Sen: Jesse Jackson Jr. seems to be up to some serious no-good in the Illinois Senate primary, although the reason isn’t clear. He’s withheld his endorsement from Alexi Giannoulias so far, and now is going so far as to talk up his respect for Mark Kirk (they serve on Appropriations together) and float the idea of endorsing him. Is he using his endorsement as a bargaining chip to get some squeaky-wheel-greasing (like Jackson’s pet airport project – recall that he didn’t endorse 1998 IL-Gov nominee Glenn Poshard over that very issue), or is he war-gaming his own run against a first-term Kirk in 2016?

• NY-Sen, NY-Sen-B (pdf): Siena is out with a slew of New York data today. They find Kirsten Gillibrand in good position in the Senate race against three second-tier opponents; she beats Bruce Blakeman 51-24, Joe DioGuardi 51-25, and David Malpass 53-22. In the GOP primary, DioGuardi is at 15, Blakeman at 8, and Malpass at 4. I guess they want to be thorough, because they also took a rather in-depth look at the usually neglected NY-Sen-_A_. Charles Schumer beats Nassau Co. Controller George Maragos 65-22, Jay Townsend 63-24, Gary Berntsen 64-23, and Jim Staudenraus 65-21. Political consultant Townsend leads the primary at 10, followed by Maragos at 5, with some dudes Bertnsen and Staudenraus at 3 and 1. They even poll Schumer’s primary, wherein he beats Randy Credico 78-11.

• AK-Gov: DRM Market Research (not working for any particular candidate) polled the two primaries in the Alaska gubernatorial race (which aren’t until August), finding, as expected, GOP incumbent Sean Parnell and Dem Ethan Berkowitz with big leads. Parnell is at 59, with 9 for former state House speaker Ralph Samuels and 7 for Bill Walker. Berkowitz is at 48, with 17 for state Sen. Hollis French and 8 for Bob Poe. Diane Benson, who ran for the House in 2006 and 2008, is running for Lt. Governor this time, and leads the Dem primary there.

• AL-Gov: Ron Sparks is out with some details from an internal poll with one week left to go before the primary, needing to push back not only against an Artur Davis internal but today’s R2K poll. For some reason, there aren’t specific toplines, but Sparks is touting a one-point lead over Davis. The poll also sees Davis polling at only 43% among African-Americans.

• NY-Gov (pdf): Siena has gubernatorial numbers, too. Believe it or not, Andrew Cuomo is winning. He beats Rick Lazio 66-24, Steve Levy 65-22, and Carl Paladino 65-22. In the GOP primary, Lazio is at 29, Carl Paladino at 16, and Steve Levy at 14. How bad do you think state party chair Ed Cox is feeling that his hand-picked Killer-App party-swapper isn’t even polling ahead of a bestiality-email-forwarding teabagger? Well, Cox’s performance here and the Senate races has been so miserable that the latest local conspiracy theory is that Cox is throwing in the towel on the Senate race so that his son, Chris Cox, can have an unimpeded run against Kirsten Gillibrand in 2012. (Of course, the cart is a few miles down the road ahead of the horse; there’s no guarantee Cox Jr. can even make it out of the GOP primary in NY-01, let alone past Tim Bishop.)

• OK-Gov: I don’t know if Mary Fallin is feeling any heat here, but nevertheless, she put out an internal poll taken for her by Cole, Hargrave, Snodgrass & Associates. She leads both Dems, Lt. Gov. Jari Askins and AG Drew Edmondson by an identical 52-30 margin. (UPDATE: The Fallin campaign writes in to say this wasn’t an internal, but CHS acting on its own.)

• OR-Gov: Chris Dudley airballed his first salvo of the general election against John Kitzhaber. Dudley accused Kitzhaber of having tried to put the state in debt by borrowing to balance the state’s budget during the 2001 recession. Ooops… Kitzhaber did the exact opposite, as he fought against doing so, against legislators of both parties. (Ted Kulongoski eventually signed off on the idea in 2003, after Kitz was out of office.)

• PA-Gov: Maybe one of his younger, hipper staffers warned him that he was heavy-handedly barking up the wrong tree, as AG and GOP nominee Tom Corbett did a 180, pulling his Twitter subpoena to try and ascertain the identities of several anonymous critics.

• SC-Gov: Well, as is usually the case, the most salacious political news of the day is also the biggest. A South Carolina blogger, Will Folks, who used to be on Nikki Haley’s payroll is now claiming that he and Haley had an affair (prior to Folks’s marriage, but after Haley’s). Folks, believe it or not, is supporting Haley, but apparently wanted to get this out there as other candidates have been pushing oppo research on this to reporters. Haley had had some recent momentum, with a big ad buy on her behalf from the Mark Sanford camp and a corresponding lead in the most recent Rasmussen poll of the primary.

• TX-Gov: This is an internet poll by British pollster YouGov, so, well, have your salt and vinegar shakers handy. Working on behalf of the Texas Tribune and the Univ. of Texas, they find incumbent GOPer Rick Perry with a lead over Dem Bill White 44-35 (and similar-sized leads for the Republicans for all the other statewide offices downballot).

• Polltopia: Here’s some more hard evidence that pollsters are increasingly missing the boat by not polling cellphone users. A new Centers for Disease Control survey finds that nearly a quarter of the adult population is simply being missed by many pollsters (especially autodialers like Rasmussen and SurveyUSA, given limitations on auto-dialing cellphones). The CDC also hints at how cellphone-only adults are not just more urban, more poor, less white, younger, and more Internet-savvy, but also less “domestic” and more “bohemian,” which Nate Silver thinks indicates a different set of political beliefs, too. Given the statistically significant difference between Pew’s generic congressional ballots that include and exclude cellphone users, the cellphone effect seems to be skewing polls away from Dems this cycle — the real question is, are those cellphone-only users at all likely to show up in November?

• Demographics: Josh Goodman has another interesting piece in his redistricting preview series of population changes in big states, this time in Illinois. He finds the greatest population growth in the suburban collar counties of Illinois, also the most politically competitive part of the state these days. While these all trended sharply in the Democratic direction in 2008, the question is whether that trend hold without the Obama favorite-son effect this year.

• AR-Sen: Those nasty anti-Bill Halter Americans for Job Security ads just keep being an issue in the Arkansas Senate race, to the extent that the Halter camp just filed an FEC complaint against AJS. The content of the ads isn’t at issue, though, but rather that AJS spent $900K on the ads without disclosing its donors.

• PA-Sen, PA-Gov: Joe Sestak continues to hold a narrow lead over Arlen Specter in the daily Muhlenberg tracker that first opened up over the weeknd; today Sestak’s lead is up to 5, at 47-42. On the gubernatorial side, it’s Dan Onorato 35 41, Anthony Williams 15 8, Joe Hoeffel 8 6, and Jack Wagner 10 5. If there were serious doubts about the Muhlenberg poll (maybe based on the small daily sample size), that might be assuaged by Rasmussen, who also polled the primary on May 6 (Thursday) and found the exact same thing: Sestak leading Specter 47-42.

• CT-Gov: Ned Lamont is out with an internal poll via Garin Hart Yang, which has him in firm control of the Democratic gubernatorial primary. He leads former Stamford mayor Dan Malloy 53-18. There’s also one less minor candidate in the midst of the Lamont/Malloy fray; former state Rep. Juan Figueroa ended his bid after not getting out of the low single digits.

• GA-Gov: Here’s some interesting behind-the-scenes intrigue in the GOP primary that seems to have good ol’ interpersonal tension at its roots, as Rep. Tom Price (the current leader of the right-wing RSC) switched his endorsement from his former House colleague, Nathan Deal, to former SoS Karen Handel. Deal responded with a statement today that essentially questioned the Michigan-born Price’s southern cred.

• OR-Gov: Bill Bradbury is hitting the TV airwaves at the last minute, with Oregon’s primary in a week (kind of buried under the monumental Arkansas, Kentucky, and Pennsylvania elections). He’s leading off with his endorsement from ex-Gov. Barbara Roberts (which seems a little underwhelming if he has Al Gore and Howard Dean in his corner). Roberts probably is unknown to younger voters and unpopular with older voters, as she’s mostly known for proposing a sales tax, which is, quite simply, the one thing you don’t propose in Oregon. She also may have something of an axe to grind with John Kitzhaber, who basically pushed her out the door in 1994 after only one term.

• SC-Gov: The Club for Growth sure loves its lost causes; they weighed in in favor of state Rep. Nikki Haley in the Republican gubernatorial primary, who’s something of a minor player in a field that includes Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer and AG Henry McMaster but known for her anti-tax zealotry. Haley is a key ally of Mark Sanford, which isn’t exactly the electoral asset that it might have been a couple years ago.

• TN-Gov: Rep. John Duncan, the occasionally iconoclastic long-time GOPer in TN-02, offered an endorsement in the GOP gubernatorial primary. He gave his nod to his fellow Knoxvillean, mayor Bill Haslam, rather than to House colleague Zach Wamp.

• ID-01: Looks like Vaughn Ward, last seen trying to out-wacky the competition in the GOP field in the 1st on the issue of repealing the 17th Amendment, may have a Democrat problem in his past. He interned for a Democratic state legislator (Jim Hansen, now the state party chair) while in college in Boise in the early 90s, and much more recently, is listed as being part of Tim Kaine’s volunteer database from his 2005 campaign.

• KS-03: State Rep. Kevin Yoder (running to succeed retiring Dennis Moore) has conventionally been regarded as something of a “moderate” by Kansas Republican standards, but in a legislature where the battle lines are often Democrats + moderate Rs vs. conservative Rs, he seems to be on the conservative side in the state’s current budget impasse. Is he moving to the right for his primary, or was he just incorrectly identified from the outset?

• MI-01: Connie Saltonstall had a few good months there as the beneficiary of NOW and NARAL support when she decided to primary Rep. Bart Stupak. With his retirement, though, the interest seems to have dried up, and today she announced she’s getting out of the primary to replace Stupak. She still decided to lob a few grenades back at the establishment on her way out the door, though, accusing them of having anointed state Rep. Gary McDowell as Stupak’s successor and saying she can’t support him because of his anti-abortion views.

• PA-12: There have been concerns about Mark Critz’s warchest dwindling (supposedly down into the $70K range) as the clock ticks down toward the May 18 special election. However, word comes from his campaign that the most recent 48-hour report has him sitting on a much more comfortable $252K. Critz also benefits from an endorsement yesterday from the Tribune-Democrat, the newspaper in the district’s population center of Johnstown.

• TX-17: Could this actually be the year Chet Edwards’ luck runs out? He survived 1994 (albeit in a much friendlier district) and the 2004 DeLay-mander, but an internal poll from Republican rival Bill Flores shows Edwards in some serious trouble this time around. The poll from OnMessage Inc. has Flores leading 53-41, quite a change from August 2009 where a Flores poll gave Edwards a 44-36 lead. That’s all despite Edwards having very positive favorables (53/38); in a district where Obama’s favorables are 33/66, Edwards needs to work his usual magic, de-nationalize the race, and make it about the two candidates.

• WA-03: More establishment backing for Denny Heck in the Dem primary in the 3rd: Heck got the endorsement from Rep. Rick Larsen, who represents a similarly swingy rural/suburban district on the other side of the Seattle area.

• NY-St. Sen.: Here’s an opportunity for a pickup in the New York state Senate, if Democrats are actually willing to play some offense. Republican Tom Morahan is not expected to seek re-election in SD-38 in the Hudson Valley, a district that was won by Barack Obama 52-47. Assemblyman Kenneth Zebrowski is a potential Dem contender, but he’ll face off against a strong Republican: Rockland Co. Executive Scott Vanderhoef, most recently seen turning down entreaties to get into the GOP Senate primary to go against Kirsten Gillibrand.

• SEIU: The SEIU plans to spend freely in a number of gubernatorial races this year. They’ve set aside $4 million more for governor’s races; they plan on getting involved in Arizona, California, Connecticut, Illinois, New York, Ohio, and Florida. (Uh, New York? Are you sure that’s necessary?)

• Redistricting: The flow of money is about to rush into one more small area of the political battlefield. The FEC issued an advisory opinion that allows members of Congress to raise soft money for legal activities concerning redistricting. The FEC allowed members to raise funds for the National Democratic Redistricting Trust. This doesn’t affect a number of other redistricting-oriented groups in either party that aren’t focused on legal issues, though — like the Dems’ Foundation for the Future, which is set up as a 527.

• Passings: One of Alaska’s legendary politicians, Walter Hickel, died over the weekend at age 91. Hickel has one thing in common with Sarah Palin: he served half a term as the state’s Republican governor… although he left to become Richard Nixon’s Interior Secretary in 1968. He then encored with another term from 1990 to 1994, as a member of the Alaskan Independence Party.

This is a redistricting plan based on geographical compactness, population deviation of less than 5,000, and communities of interest (except for one seat).  VRA is ignored, as are current residences of Reps. (There’s a deep bench in California).

CA-1:blue

California deserves a real NorCal district with a representative from the North Coast.  At the same time, neutralizing highly Republican, quickly growing Redding is a good idea.  Combining liberal Humboldt, Mendocino, Lake, and more rural Sonoma Counties with moderate Del Norte, Siskiyou, and Trinity, as well as more conservative Tehama and Shasta creates a D+3 district, from an older D+14 one, which in this part of the country should be likely Dem.  It’s a very, very rural district, with Redding as the population center, although the areas lacks Democrats, and a liberal like Mike Thompson, who lives out of the district, could still win here.  80% White and 11% Hispanic, this district is actually highly similar to Oregon in race and partisan breakdown.  

CA-2: green

So what’s the parallel to the Democratic 1st?  A Republican 2nd, much of McClintock and Herger’s old districts, either could run here.  Herger is more likely to retire due to age, so I’ll give it to McClintock as the old CA-4, remaining R+9.  From very conservative rugged territory in Modoc, Lassen, Plumas and Sierra Counties, as well as Nevada and Placer, the district goes west into the Valley foothills in Butte, taking in Paradise and Oroville, as well as E. Tehama and all of Yuba.  Sacramento Suburbs in the district include Auburn, Rocklin, Loomis, and Roseville.  The North Tahoe area, including Truckee, is also included.  81% White, 10% Hispanic.

CA-3: purple

This is actually Wally Herger’s CA-2, gone from R+10 to D+5.  Herger’s home city of Chico, a college town, is kept along with rural Colusa, Sutter, and Glenn.  However, adding in Thompson’s old Yolo Co., with college town Davis and West Sacramento, a small piece of Lungren’s old 3rd, and some of N. Sacramento from Matsui’s 5th gives this district the Democratic lean we desire.  Lincoln from the old 4th is also in the district.  61% White, 21% Hispanic, and a Democratic PICKUP  D+1

CA-4: red

A tad of Sacramento, suburbs, exurbs, and Tahoe.  I drive from one end of the district to the other every year to go skiing.  This is Lungren’s old 3rd.  Part of Sacramento from the 5th, Sac. Suburbs from like Folsom and Citrus Hts from Lungren’s old 3rd, and El Dorado Co., home of fast growing exurbs and mountainous Tahoe area, from the old 4th.  Obama won by 2,000 votes, so it’s R+3, but with Lungren’s vulnerability in a similar district, also an R+3, it’s still a Toss Up, due to the addition of unfamiliar territory and higher turnout in 2012.  Lungren doesn’t even live in it.  77% White, 10% Hispanic. D+1.5

CA-5: yellow

This old Matsui D+18 Sacramento district is now a much of Sacramento Co. D+10 district, although still maj-min. at 49W, 18H, 15A, 12B.  Lungren actually lives here, I believe, but Matsui’s still safe.  Rural Amador, Calaveras, and Alpine Cos. are also in this district, from Lungren’s old district.

CA-6: turqoise

Yes, it’s new, and it combines Bay Area with Central Valley.  However, Fairfield and Vacaville are arguably as much Sacramento as they are Bay Area.  The N. Half of Solano, from Garamendi and Miller’s districts, contains these cities.  A piece of Lungren’s is in here, too.  Half of Stockton is from Cardoza’s (no racial gerrymandering here).  The rest: other half of Stockton, Lodi, and rural areas, comes from Garamendi’s D+13 district, making his new one D+4, which should still be Likely D, Lean D in open years.  47W, 27H, 12A.  

CA-7: gray

So what’s in Mike Thompson’s new district, if he runs where he actually resides?  Well, liberal Bay Area Napa Co. from the 1st, Benicia (a former state capital), Vallejo, and Suisun City in the North Bay, which are from Miller and Garamendi’s districts, Miller’s Pittsburg, and Garamendi’s Antioch and Oakley.  McNerney’s Brentwood and Tracy (a Central Valley city attached to the old 11th to help Pombo, although it now leans left) finishes up the district.  McNerney could run here, as he’s out of a district, his old D+2 becoming D+14.  52W, 22H, 11A, 10B.  

CA-8: periwinkle

There’s nothing we can do to Lynn Woolsey’s district to make it closer to D+5 or so, so this old D+24 district remains the same PVI.  Gone are the coastal areas of Sonoma, adding the city of Sonoma from the old 1st and the North Beach, Marina, and Presidio of San Francisco from Pelosi’s old 8th.  75W, 13H

CA-9: light blue

Pelosi’s D+34 8th is now the D+33 9th, but little changes, losing a piece of SF and adding the SW part instead.  40W, 32A, 15H.

CA-10: pink

This is Speier’s district.  It goes from D+22 to D+21, losing nearly all of its SF portion, keeping San Mateo Co., and adding the old San Mateo Co. portions of Eshoo’s district: Half Moon Bay, Woodside, Menlo Park, Atherton, Redwood City, and Portola Valley.  50W (maj-min.), 22A, 20H.

CA-11: green

Eshoo gets bumped up three spots, to the 11th district, and moving from D+21 to D+20.  She keeps East Palo Alto from San Mateo Co. and all of her Santa Clara Co. portion (Saratoga, my hometown of Los Altos, Mtn View, Palo Alto, Sunnyvale) and adds Santa Clara, Cupertino, Los Gatos, and part of San Jose from Honda’s district.  54W, 26A, 13H

CA-12: blue

Honda picks up a lot more of San Jose and keeps Campbell and Gilroy while adding Morgan Hill from McNerney’s district (what a gerrymander that one was).  From D+16 to D+15.  47W, 27H, 19A

CA-13: salmon

Lofgren loses a lot of her old San Jose territory in her old D+17 district to Honda, and changes her district by adding Milpitas from Honda’s, hilly areas from McNerney, as well as his Dublin and Pleasanton, and Stark’s Newark.  It’s now D+14 and 37W, 28H, 27A.  

CA-14: puke

Pete Stark moves northward as well (all this from extending CA-1 southward), from his old, cozy, D+22 to his new, still Fremont/Union City/Hayward/San Leandro-based, but adding Lee’s S. Oakland and Castro Valley, for a now cozier D+26 district, 31W, 24A, 24H, 16B.

CA-15: orange

Barbara Lee’s district, previously at D+36, doesn’t have to be VRA, and so she now has her old N. Oakland and Berkeley along with Stark’s Alameda and Miller’s Richmond for a still D+36, but now 38W, 21B, 19A, 17H district.

CA-16: bright green

Miller is relocated entirely South of the Bay, keeping Martinez and Concord and adding Garamendi’s Walnut Creek, Lafayette, and Pleasant Hill and McNerney’s San Ramon and Danville.  It then goes into the valley, like McNerney’s old district (Miller could retire with McNerney running here)to get Manteca, Lathrop, and Ripon,from McNerney and Radanovich’s districts, Republican areas that can be neutralized here.  From D+19 to D+10.  70W, 14H, 10A.

CA-17: dark purple

Radanovich’s replacement will be safe here, the district goes from R+7 to R+11, keeping Oakdale, Yosemite, and Madera Co. and adding Merced and Atwater from Cardoza’s district.  56W, 33H.

CA-18: yellow

Devin Nunes is still fine here, but it goes from R+11 to R+9.  It keeps Tulare, Porterville, Clovis, and Visalia while adding N. Fresno from Radanovich, as well as rural areas from Costa.  45H, 45W.

CA-19: forest green

This is Cardoza’ new district; he won’t be as happy, but that’s the price to pay for making stuff look nice. From D+7 to D+2 isn’t terrible, and at least Cardoza’ a Blue Dog, but still, it likely would be Lean D instead of Safe D, or something like that.  He keeps Modesto, Ceres, and Los Banos, adds Turlock from Radanovich, and takes part of Costa and Radanovich’s Fresno.  48W, 38H.  Plus, making Cardoza vulnerable will look bipartisan. D+1 again.

CA-20: pink

Jim Costa still very safe, however.  Right now, he’s D+7, it jumps to D+16 with the one super-gerrymandered district.  To help make SoCal more Democratic, Santa Cruz Co and rural San Benito Co are combined with the Central Valley, namely S. Fresno, Hanford, and rural areas from his old district.  I’m sorry.  42W, 42H.

CA-21: maroon

Don’t worry, I didn’t forget about Sam Farr, it’s just that his district is really Central California now.  He keeps Monterey Co. but adds more conservative Atascadero, Paso Robles, and Taft from McCarthy and Wasco, Delano, and Shafter from Costa, going from D+20 to D+7.  48W, 40H.



CA-22: brown

So there have to be two Republican Central Valley districts, so here’s McCarthy’s.  He keeps Bakersfield and California City, but now adds some of N. LA Co.  His district doesn’t really change much, though, from R+15 (in California!) to R+13.  54W, 33H.

CA-23: light blue

Alright, Lois Capps, how well can you poll more than 2 miles inland?  Well, it seems she can do OK.  Adding some of McCarthy’s inland SLO Co. and Gallegly’s inland SB and Ventura Cos. to her own coastal cities like Santa Maria, Santa Barbara, and Ventura, she goes from D+14 to D+7, not a huge change. 63W, 28H.

CA-24: deep purple

Elton Gallegly has a shot, but it just went from R+2 to D+2.  He’ll probably retire, leaving it at Lean Dem.  He keeps Moorpark, Simi Valley, Thousand Oaks, and Camarillo, and adds Oxnard from Capps’ district and Malibu from Waxman’s.  56W, 33H.  This is the third toss up. D+1.5

CA-25: rose

This is Buck McKeon’s old district, but he’ll be retiring.  From R+3 to D+6, this district, which Brad Sherman will now probably run in, contains parts of Waxman, Sherman, and Berman’s LA, along with Santa Clarita from McKeon’s old district.  He’s gone.  PICKUP  59W, 26H. D+2.5

CA-26: gray

This is an open district, it’s what Sherman’s district got moved to.  From D+14 to D+8, that is.  Some Democrat will win.  It contains parts of Berman and Sherman’s LA, Dreier’s La Canada Flintridge, and Lancaster and Palmdale from McKeon.  48H, 33W.  

CA-27: bright green

Howard Berman has no issues here.  Right now, he has a D+24, but this will change him to a D+18.  No alarm.  Berman, Sherman, and Waxman’s LA districts are all represented, along with Schiff’s Burbank.  48W, 35H.

CA-28: light purple

This is David Dreier’s old R+1 district.  Now it’s a Democrat’s D+8 district.  How fun.  Take Pasadena, Alhambra, San Gabriel, and Temple from Schiff, add Dreier’s San Marino, Arcadia, Sierra Madre, Bradbury, Monrovia, Glendora, San Dimas, and La Verne, and then include Chu’s Irwindale, Azusa, and Duarte, and we’ve got a 38W, 31H, 21A Safe Dem district from Dreier’s old Lean R one. PICKUP D+3.5

CA-29: ugly green

Adam Schiff gets to keep his number, and his district, somewhat.  From D+16 to D+23, this actually helps him.  He keeps Glendale and South Pasadena and adds LA from Becerra and Berman.  38W, 37H, 16A.

CA-30: salmon

Henry Waxman stays very similar, from D+18 to D+26, but safe either way.  He keeps Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, and Hollywood, and adds Harman’s and Waters’s pieces of LA and Culver City from Watson.  53W, 19H, 13B, 10A.

CA-31: pale yellow

I don’t think Jane Harman’s going to keep her district.  Maxine Waters will primary her out.  Blue Dog Harman goes from a manageable D+12 to D+26.  Only a minority Blue Dog could survive here.  El Segundo and Beach Areas stay in the district, and Waters’s Gardena, Inglewood, Hawthorne, Lawndale, and a slice of L.A.  39H, 33B, 18W.

CA-32: orange

Xavier Becerra goes from D+28 to D+29.  Does it matter? All L.A., 53H, 17W, 16A, 11B.

CA-33: blue

This is the new district created by merging Harman and Waters.  Harman could technically run here (although I consider it Waters’s old district), it went from D+32 to D+14, much like Harman’s old one.  Torrance, Lomita, and a bit of LA are from her old district, while Richardson’s Compton, Carson, and the hills areas are in as well.  I think Harman would run, but hopefully lose in the primary.  38H, 28W, 16B, 15A.  

CA-34: green

Lucille Roybal-Allard’s district rises from D+23 to D+36.  It has LA, Bell, Vernon, and Huntington Park.  It’s 79%H, 15%B, and only 2% White!!!! She’s safe.

CA-35: purple

Napolitano’s old district was D+19.  Her new one is only D+14.  It’s got a lot of Eastern LA Co.  60H, 19W,11A.

CA-36: orange

Ed Royce won’t enjoy this.  That’s good for us.  He’s used to R+6.  He now has D+7.  Good luck, Mr. Royce.  Have a fun retirement.  Royce keeps Fullerton, adds Miller’s Brea, La Habra,  and Whittier, and then takes in Pico Rivera, Montebello, and Santa Fe Springs from Linda Sanchez.  55H, 27W, 14A.  Does any Republican represent a district that’s 27% White? PICKUP D+4.5

CA-37: bright blue

Judy Chu moves a bit, not too much.  D+16 to D+17.  Keeps Monterey Park, Rosemead, South El Monte, Baldwin Park, W. Covina, and Covina.  Adds La Puente from Napolitano.  64H, 20A, 12W.

CA-38: light greenish

While we’re getting rid of OC Republicans, let’s get rid of the only one from LA County: Gary Miller.  Miller goes from R+8 to D+6 in this district.  He keeps Diamond Bar, Chino, Chino Hills, and part of Yorba Linda.  He adds Walnut, Montclair, and Claremont from Dreier, Pomona from Napolitano, and Ontario from Baca.  And here we have 46H, 30W, 13A.  And no more Gary Miller. PICKUP D+5.5

CA-39: pale

Keep the most endangered Republican safe.  Make them happy.  Ken Calvert goes from R+3 to R+10.  He’ll love this plan.  He keeps Corona and Norco and adds Tustin from Campbell, Orange and Villa Park from Miller, and there: 56W, 28H.

CA-40: maroonish

Laura Richardson started at D+28.  Now she’s at D+7.  But it’s ok.  She keeps about a third of Long Beach and adds Lakewood from Linda Sanchez, Buena Park and Cypress from Royce, and most of Anaheim from Loretta Sanchez.  41H, 32W, 15A.

CA-41: grayish-blue

So, I really wanted to get rid of Rohrabacher.  I tried.  Best I can get while keeping beach communities together is this D+3.  He currently has R+5. I’d say he’s a toss-up.  He takes Richardson’s Long Beach and Royce’s Los Alamitos adds it to his own Huntington Beach, Seal Beach, and Costa Mesa.  54W, 27H, 10A. D+6

CA-42: bright green

Loretta Sanchez’s district.  Keeps Garden Grove and Santa Ana, adds Westminster and Fountain Valley from Ol’ Dana, and Stanton from Royce.  From D+8 to D+0, but I think she can hold on. 51H, 24W, 20A.  D+5.5

CA-43: pink

John Campbell currently resides in an R+3 district, and it changes to an R+4, still a Safe Republican OC district (the only one, unless you count Rohrabacher as safe).  He keeps Irvine, Dana Pt., and the Lagunas while Calvert’s Mission Viejo.  71W, 13A, 12H.

CA-44: magenta

Darrell Issa’s district’s moved here, and he doesn’t live in it.  However, he’s young, popular, and wealthy, so he’d probably still run.  It goes from R+8 to R+12.  He keeps Lake Elsinore and Temecula and adds San Juan Capistrano and San Clemente from Calvert, Murrieta, Hemet, and La Quinta from Bono Mack, and a lot of rural, desert-y area.  71W, 21H.

CA-45: light blue

Jerry Lewis, the Republicans’ Appropriations (earmarks) leader, moves from R+9 to R+1, a tossup (lean R with incumbency).  So I can say D+6 total.  He takes Baca’s San Bernardino and Colton and adds his own Highland, Redlands, Yucaipa, Calimesa, Banning, Beaumont, and San Jacinto.  48W, 34H.

CA-46: orange

Linda Sanchez’s D+13 LA Area district becomes a D+8 Inland Empire District.  It will have a new, probably Hispanic, representative.  It takes Riverside from Calvert, Perris from Issa, and Moreno Valley from Bono Mack.  40H, 39W, 11B

CA-47: pale purple

So Joe Baca goes from D+16 to D+6, but he’s still safe.  He keeps Fontana, Rialto, and Colton, and adds Rancho Cucamonga and Upland from Dreier.  46H, 36W, 10B

CA-48: light orange

Most redistricting plans I’ve seen take out Bono Mack, but I’d rather remove Duncan Hunter and keep Bono Mack safe.  From R+1 to R+7 she goes.  She keeps only Palm Springs, Cathedral City, Rancho Mirage, Palm Desert, and Indian Wells, while adding much of Lewis’s old district in Desert Hot Springs, Yucca Valley, Twentynine Palms, Hesperia, Apple Valley, and Needles.  She also takes Barstow, Victorville, and Adelanto from McKeon. 62W, 26H.

CA-49: earthy red

I’m not sure who’s district this changes to update: it’s Watson’s, but it was certainly an R leaning district before.  Now it’s D+4.  So that’s 6 pickups.  By taking Indio, Coachella, and all of rural Riverside Co. in the East from Bono Mack, along with Blythe, and combining it with Filner’s Imperial Co., Chula Vista, and the border part of San Diego, and then taking rural areas from Hunter and Issa, you’ve got a pretty safe district.  60H, 27W.

CA-50: light blue

Brian Bilbray is still safe, from R+1 to R+7.  He takes Issa’s Camp Pendleton, Oceanside, and Vista and adds his own Carlsbad, San Marcos, and Escondido.  58W, 30H.

CA-51: brown

I think we can win a D+3, especially since it came from Hunter’s old R+8 and he doesn’t live in it.  7 pickups for us.  Take Bilbray’s Encinitas, Solana Beach, Del Mar, UC San Diego, and Hunter’s N. Poway, and add Davis’s La Jolla and W. San Diego, and we’re safe.  71W, 14A, 10H.

CA-52: green

Susan Davis gets a D+6 district, rather than D+16.  She takes part of Poway, E. San Diego, and El Cajon from Hunter, along with his home rural area and La Mesa and adds some of her own San Diego.  60W, 20H

CA-53: white

The last one.  Bob Filner goes from D+11 to D+5.  It has his old S. San Diego area and Davis’s area plus her Coronado.  40W, 34H, 11B, 11A.

There it is, I’m done.  

• AR-Sen: Americans for Job Security strikes back! They’re launching a new ad against Bill Halter on the outsourcing front… well, it’s pretty much the same ad, just not as, y’know, openly racist. They’re spending almost $500K on the TV ad buy, supplementing the large amounts they’ve already dropped in this race.

• FL-Sen: Mason-Dixon has a new post-party-switch poll of the Senate race. They find Charlie Crist with a narrow lead, at 38, compared with Marco Rubio at 32 and Kendrick Meek at 19, but they also warn that Crist’s sitting on a house of cards, as more than half of Crist’s support is from Democrats and that may erode as Meek gets better known (Meek is at 40% unknown). I trust Mason-Dixon more than the three other pollsters who’ve also released results this week, but they all seem to be reaching a sort of consensus on this race (Rasmussen at 38C-34R-17M, McLaughlin at 33C-29R-15M, and POS for Crist at 36C-28R-23M). Meanwhile, the candidates are fumbling around trying to pin down their respective bases with various flipfloppery: Rubio is walking back his previous disdain for Arizona’s immigration law, now saying he’s all for it, while the occasionally pro-life Crist is prepared to veto a bill requiring pregnant women to view a fetal ultrasound before being able to have an abortion.

• IL-Sen: This is probably good news for Alexi Giannoulias, although it was more a question of when it would happen rather than if it would happen, given the media’s tendency to get distracted by the next shiny object. A local TV reporter more or less called out Mark Kirk for incessant focus on the Broadway Bank scandal and asked him what else he was planning to talk about in the future, perhaps indicative of a growing media boredom with the story.

• PA-Sen/Gov: Today’s tracker in the Muhlenberg/Morning Call poll shows a narrower spread in the Senate race: Arlen Specter leads Joe Sestak 45-40. In the Governor’s primary, Dan Onorato is at 34, Joe Hoeffel is at 12, and Anthony Williams and Jack Wagner are at 8. Meanwhile, the Sestak camp is hitting Specter with a new TV ad focusing on what’s probably Specter’s biggest vulnerability in the Democratic primary: the fact that he was a Republican Senator for, y’know, three decades or so. The ad’s replete with lots of photos of Specter and G.W. Bush, together again. The tightening race and aggressive tone has the Pennsylvania Dem establishment worried, and state party chair T.J. Rooney is sounding the alarm, calling a possible Sestak win “cataclysmic” and making various electability arguments in favor of Specter.

• AL-Gov: We don’t have any actual hard numbers to report, but local pollster Gerald Johnson (of Capital Survey Research Center) has been leaking reports that there’s significant tightening in the Democratic gubernatorial primary, with Ag Commissioner Ron Sparks moving within the margin of error of Rep. Artur Davis. Davis’s numbers seem to have dropped following his anti-HCR vote. Meanwhile, on the GOP side, Tim James‘ attention-grabbing, race-baiting ad seems to have had its desired effect. He just released an internal poll showing him taking the lead, with him at 26, Roy Moore at 21, Bradley Byrne at 20, and Robert Bentley at 7. (The previous James internal had Moore at 27, Byrne at 18, and James at 14.)

• CA-Gov (pdf): Another gubernatorial primary where there’s some tightening is on the Republican side is the GOP primary in California. Steve Poizner is touting an internal poll from POS that his him within 10 points of the once-unstoppable Meg Whitman, 38-28. It seems like Whitman lost a whole lot of inevitability once someone than her actually started advertising on TV, too.

• CT-02: That was fast… it was only a few days ago that former TV anchor Janet Peckinpaugh’s interest in running the 2nd became known. Now she’s officially launched her campaign, with Connecticut’s nominating convention fast approaching (May 21).

• PA-12: The DCCC paid for another $170K in media buys on behalf of Mark Critz, bringing their total investment in this special election up to $641K. (J) The GOP is bringing one more big gun to the district to campaign on Tim Burns’s behalf, too: Rep. Mike Pence.

• VA-05: In the wake of his surprising decision to join the Constitution Party, ex-Rep. Virgil Goode had to clarify several things: most notably, he said that, no, he’s not running in the 5th this year as a Constitution Party candidate (or as anything else), although he wouldn’t rule out a future run. Furthermore, he isn’t leaving the Republican Party; he doesn’t view membership as mutually exclusive. Meanwhile, Politico is wondering what’s up between the NRCC and the establishment candidate in the 5th, state Sen. Robert Hurt. Hurt hasn’t been added to the NRCC’s Young Guns list, despite their tendency to add anyone with a pulse everywhere else. The NRCC hasn’t added any names in this district and says they’d prefer to wait until after the primary — although in other contested primaries, they’ve added multiple names to the list, which suggests that they’re trying to lay low in this race, which has become a rather emblematic flash point in the establishment/teabagger rift this year.

• WA-03: Both Democratic candidates in the 3rd nailed down labor endorsements in the last few days. Denny Heck got the endorsement of the Boeing Machinists (maybe the state’s most powerful union) and the local IBEW, while Craig Pridemore got the nod from the pulp and paper workers.

• WI-07: With David Obey’s surprising retirement announcement yesterday, we’re moving the open seat in the 7th to “Tossup” status (from Likely Dem). On the one hand, it’s a D+3 district with a solid Democratic bench of state legislators, but on the other hand, GOP challenger Sean Duffy is sitting on a lot of money and establishment support, and there’s, of course, the nature of the year. CQ lists a whole herd of possible Democratic successors in the district: the big name on the list is probably Russ Decker, the state Senate’s majority leader. Others include state Sens. Julie Lassa and Pat Kreitlow, state Rep. Donna Seidel, and attorney Christine Bremer. Another area state Sen., Robert Jauch, has already taken himself out of the running. And one other Republican isn’t ruling out a bid, which could complicate Duffy’s path: state Rep. Jerry Petrowski.

• CA-Init: It looks like Californians will get the chance to vote on an initiative that proposes to move congressional redistricting to the same independent commission process as legislative redistricting, as the initiative just qualified for the ballot. I’m genuinely torn: on the one hand, the naïve idealist in me admits some fondness for compactly-drawn swingy districts, but on the other hand, Dems have a good shot at controlling the trifecta in California and with the ability to wring some additional Dem-leaning seats out of the map, control of the 2012 House may well be at stake here.

• NRCC: The NRCC promoted 13 members of its Young Guns framework to the top tier (the “Young Guns” level). This includes not only the aforementioned Sean Duffy, but also the winners of the three contested primaries in Indiana… and a surprise in the form of Morgan Griffith, who’s taking on Rep. Rick Boucher in VA-09 but who’s still sitting on a five-figure cash stash and on the wrong end of a 22:1 CoH ratio.

• NH-Sen: I’m still hazy on the backstory here, but it’s never a good sign when Politico is running big headlines titled “Fraud case complicates Ayotte bid.” New Hampshire’s Bureau of Securities Regulation director, Mark Connelly, just resigned his job to become a whistleblower, alleging a cover-up by the AG’s office and state banking commission in a fraud case where Financial Resources Mortgage Inc. defrauded New Hampshire investors out of at least $80 million. Connelly was pushing for charges against FRM as early as 2006; the AG in question, of course, was Kelly Ayotte, who resigned her post in mid-2009. Discovery in the matter may be complicated because all of Ayotte’s e-mail and calendars were wiped from her computer after she left the AG’s office.

• PA-Sen, PA-Gov (pdf): It looks like Muhlenberg College (on behalf of the Morning Call) is actually going to be doing a daily tracker on the Democratic primary races in the next two weeks as we count down to May 18. Today they find an even narrower gap in the suddenly-closer Arlen Specter/Joe Sestak race: Specter leads Sestak 46-42. Dan Onorato’s numbers in the gubernatorial race aren’t quite as showy, but still dominant: he’s at 36, with Anthony Williams at 9, Joe Hoeffel at 8, and Jack Wagner at 8. Quinnipiac also has similar numbers out today: they also have Specter leading Sestak by only single digits, at 47-39 (down from 53-32 a month ago). In the governor’s race, Qpac finds Onorato at 36, Hoeffel at 9, Wagner at 8, and Williams at 8. The DSCC seems to be sensing some trouble here for their preferred candidate, and they’re dipping into their treasury to help Specter out: the DSCC chipped in for $300K in Specter’s last $407K TV ad buy. Sestak just kicked off TV advertising two weeks ago but is going all in, outspending Specter in the last two weeks, which obviously coincides with his late surge.

• AZ-Gov: That Behavior Research Center poll of AZ-Sen from a few weeks ago contained a Republican gubernatorial primary question as well. Their findings mirror the other most recent polls of the primary: vulnerable incumbent Jan Brewer strengthened her hand among GOP primary voters by signing Arizona’s immigration law into effect. She’s at 22, not a lock but well ahead of any opposition: Owen Buz Mills is at 13, Dean Martin is at 10, and John Munger is at 4. (If your calculator isn’t handy, that leaves 51% undecided.)

• NH-Gov (pdf): Univ. of New Hampshire is out with another look at New Hampshire’s gubernatorial race, where Democratic incumbent John Lynch is well in control but still facing a tougher race than the last few times. They find Lynch leads GOP challenger John Stephen 49-32, little changed from the February poll where Lynch led 50-30.

• WI-Gov: Ex-Rep. Mark Neumann is very much the underdog in the Republican primary in the gubernatorial race (as the DC and local establishments have both embraced Milwaukee Co. Executive Scott Walker instead). But he added a hard-right endorsement to his trophy cabinet today; he got the nod from Tom Coburn.

• GA-08: In a clear sign that state Rep. Austin Scott (who recently bailed out of a long-shot gubernatorial campaign) is the man to beat in the GOP primary in the 8th, Angela Hicks got out of the race, saying she didn’t want to hurt Scott’s chances. Local businesswoman Hicks seemed to be considered the frontrunner among the GOPers prior to Scott’s entry, more by virtue of being the least weak rather than the strongest.

• HI-01: Barack Obama recorded a robocall for Democratic voters in his hometown district. Despite reports that the White House is joining the DCCC is putting a finger on the scale in favor of Ed Case rather than Colleen Hanabusa in the screwy special election, Obama didn’t name names; he simply urged a vote for “a Democrat.”

• NH-02: The largely forgotten state Rep. John DeJoie, the third wheel in the Democratic primary to replace Paul Hodes, cut short his bid today. Despite generally being regarded as from the progressive side of the ledger, DeJoie threw his support to Katrina Swett. DeJoie’s departure, on the balance, may help Ann McLane Kuster, though, by not splitting the progressive vote.

• PA-12: I have no idea whether this is good strategy or not, but Mark Critz, hoping to replace former boss John Murtha, is clinging hard to Murtha’s legacy in his new TV ad, seeming to put a lot of faith in polling data showing Murtha still a very popular figure in the district. Critz blasts back at Tim Burns for his own TV spots focusing on Murtha’s ethical woes, telling Burns ungrammatically to stop attacking “someone not there to defend themselves.” Meanwhile, the fight’s on for Murtha’s money: $7K from Murtha’s PAC found its way into Democratic pockets (including $5K for Critz), but the bulk of Murtha’s leftover money is headed for a charitable foundation established by his widow.

• CA-St. Sen.: For fans of legislative special elections, it looks like the marquee event between now and November will be the fight for California’s SD-15, a Dem-leaning central coast district vacated by Republican now-Lt. Gov. Abel Maldonado. Republican Assemblyman Sam Blakeslee just got in the race, giving the GOP a solid contender to try and hold the seat as Dems try to push closer to the 2/3s mark in the Senate; he’ll face off against Democratic ex-Assemblyman John Laird in the June 22 election. (If neither candidate breaks 50%, there’ll be an Aug. 17 runoff.)

• Redistricting: Lots of redistricting-related action this week, going in two different directions. In Florida, the GOP-held legislature placed a redistricting measure on the November ballot that partially contradicts two citizen initiatives on the ballot that would prevent the legislature from drawing maps that favor one political party. The new proposal would still allow the legislature to take “communities of interest” into consideration when drawing maps. In Illinois, though, two attempts to change redistricting both failed, when the legislature couldn’t muster the votes to put it on the November ballot. Illinois’s arcane methods (which involve breaking ties by pulling a name out of a hat) will apparently still apply for the 2012 redistricting round.

• Deutschland: Our man in Cologne, SSPer micha.1976 has a hilarious and remarkable find from the streets of Germany. Remember the impeach-Obama Larouchie, Kesha Rogers, who won the Democratic nomination in TX-22? Her image is now being used on posters for a like-minded LaRouchie candidate in Germany! (J)

If you post or lurk here, you must be the political junkiest of the junkiest. That’s why you’ve probably been looking forward to Gerrymandering, a documentary about redistricting directed by filmmaker Jeff Reichert.

I don’t pretend to be a movie aficionado. Not at all. Hopefully this review will be somewhat coherent 🙂

I’ve seen a lot of users here posting that they were looking forward to seeing the film. I, as an avid user of the time-draining DRA, couldn’t wait to see it. Fortunately, I got a chance to witness the film at the Tribeca Film Festival this weekend. My thoughts about the documentary are below the jump.

I came into the movie with high expectations because I’ve done too much research on the issue of gerrymandering and redistricting over the past few months. I also was expecting many issues to be touched upon that one would expect, like partisan motivations for gerrymandering and the Voting Rights Act.

I discuss specifically the movie in the block quote, so please skip if you want to go into the movie without knowing anything about Reichert’s style.

At the beginning of his documentary, Reichert employed animation of lines carving up states while explaining the definition of gerrymandering succinctly, a definition that anyone could easily understand. I would be content if all people took away from this movie was the definition he gave–everyone should know what gerrymandering is!!

Obviously, he went beyond it. The movie contained many interviews from activists, lawmakers, and pundits that gave their own anecdote about the issue. Personally, I felt that one of the most effective parts was the (brief) interview he got with Fmr. Rep. Martin Frost; Frost detailed exactly how he was affected by the DeLaymander, and the graphics that showed it firsthand were extremely effective.

Reichert covered pretty much everything that is pertinent to the redistricting process today: partisan motivations; racial motivations and the VRA; independent commissions; prison counting; Texas’ mid-decade redistricting; incumbent homes, etc.

I feel that people who constantly review and create maps here at SSP and know a lot about the process will know almost all of the information provided in the film. However, I thought it was cool to see personal stories behind the data we analyze here. There was one story from a non-establishment Brooklyn Democrat who had his house removed from a district so that he couldn’t re-challenge an entrenched incumbent in the ensuing election. The lawmaker, who called the process “gangsta,” now is an assemblyman.

The documentary spent a lot of time with background from the campaign on Prop 11, which you may know as the thing that will create independent commissions to deal with California redistricting. I felt as though the film didn’t do enough to explain how that would affect the state, and I also felt that it was kind of boring at times to keep hearing about the campaign behind it. Not that this was that much of a bother; in fact, it was still interesting, but the time could have been better spent explaining the background behind the VRA or other history.

I’m not going to talk more about the film, as I don’t want to give anything more away. The movie was extremely successful in teaching an important, yet under appreciated topic. It was easy to understand and follow, while it explored the ways that gerrymandering can hurt our democracy. Undoubtedly, the movie was extremely biased against legislators drawing districts, but the movie is still an extremely important teaching tool. Reichert is knowledgeable about the issues–he took questions from the audience after the movie and I was extremely impressed that he knew all of the factual answers. The only problems I had were that the VRA wasn’t explained enough, the Prop 11 campaign part was too long, and the prison-counting part was way too short.

All in all, though, the movie is extremely important for any citizen of this country. I highly recommend it for anybody in the SSP community. Also, it was nice to hear Ed Rollins call us–the people into reconfiguring districts–“nerds.” Rollins also said our work was important though.

Thanks and I hope that was coherent…

• AZ-Sen, AZ-Gov: The signature by Gov. Jan Brewer (which may have helped her survive the GOP primary, but may also hurt her in the general) of Arizona’s new aggressive anti-immigrant law was the key motivating factor in a new Democratic candidate getting into the Senate race: civil rights activist Randy Parraz. He’ll face Rodney Glassman in the Democratic primary. (Why not the, y’know, Arizona Governor’s race instead? Apparently Glassman looks like easier primary opposition than AG Terry Goddard in the governor’s race… and at any rate, John McCain and J.D. Hayworth have both been beating the war drums on immigration.) And here’s an interesting take on the immigration law: ex-Rep. Tom Tancredo just came out in opposition to it, saying, “I do not want people here, there in Arizona, pulled over because you look like should be pulled over.” If even Tom Tancredo thinks you’re doing it wrong… you’re probably doing it wrong.

• CT-Sen: Linda McMahon’s campaign doesn’t seem to be doing anything illegal here, but there’s still no good way to spin this: the campaign has been offering students an extra $5 bounty (on top of a flat hourly rate) for every Republican registered during a Univ. of Connecticut voter registration drive. It’s a practice that the DOJ has frowned upon.

• IL-Sen: In the wake of the seizure of the Broadway Bank, Alexi Giannoulias wasted no time in getting an explanatory ad on the air, laying it out in easy-to-grasp points: one, he hadn’t worked there in years and when he left it was fine, two, the broader economy took the bank down, and three, speaking of that economic downturn, don’t vote for unemployment-benefits-denying Mark Kirk.

• MD-Sen: OK, maybe all those Barb Mikulski retirement rumors will finally go away. She just had her campaign’s official kickoff event on Friday. She has 24 times the cash of her likeliest Republican opponent, Queen Anne’s Co. Commissioner Eric Wargotz.

• NC-Sen: Elon University’s out with another poll; they still aren’t doing head-to-heads, but have some assorted other numbers that Richard Burr would probably rather not see. His approvals (among flat-out everybody, not even RVs) are 28/37 and 26% say he “deserves re-election” with 44% saying “time for a new person.”

• NV-Sen: A poll for the Nevada News Bureau performed by PMI finds Sue Lowden leading the pack in the GOP Senate primary, at 41. Danny Tarkanian is at 24, Sharron Angle is at 17, and “someone else” is at 18. The poll was taken on the 22nd, shortly after Lowden laid out her support for trading chickens in exchange for poultices and tinctures.

• NY-Sen-B: Long-time Rockland Co. Exec Scott Vanderhoef has decided not to pursue a run against Kirsten Gillibrand, after having spent a month in exploratory mode, saying the money’s just not there. Vanderhoef probably found he didn’t have the name rec outside of Rockland Co. to have an advantage against the odds and ends in the GOP primary, let alone in the general.

• UT-Sen: Another poll of GOP delegates for the convention in Utah isn’t as bad for Bob Bennett as the one leaked to Dave Weigel last week, but it still looks pretty bad for him. Mike Lee leads the way among first-choice votes at 31%, followed by Bennett at 22% (and then Tim Bridgewater at 17% and Cherilyn Eagar at 10%). 41% of delegates say they will “absolutely not” vote for Bennett, so even if Bennett picks up the other 59%, he still can’t nail down the nomination at the convention (as there’s a 60% threshold).

• WA-Sen: Everyone seemed a little taken by surprise by Friday’s SurveyUSA poll of the Washington Senate race, which has non-candidate (for now) Dino Rossi leading Patty Murray 52-42 (and leading the various no-name GOPers actively in the race by 2 or 3 points). Even the Rossi camp is downplaying it, saying that their internal polling places Murray in the lead – which is an odd strategy for someone who got gifted an outlying poll, unless either he’s trying to rope-a-dope Murray into complacency or privately cursing the results saying “aw crap, now I have to run for Senate.” One of the no-namers, motivational speaker Chris Widener, got out of the race on Friday, which may also portend a Rossi run (or just having taken a stark look at his own finances). Murray’s camp may have gotten advance warning of the SurveyUSA poll, as on Friday they leaked their own internal from Fairbank Maslin giving Murray a 49-41 lead over Rossi, very consistent with R2K’s recent poll.

• IL-Gov: Oh, goody. Scott Lee Cohen, having bailed out/gotten booted off the Democratic ticket as Lt. Governor nominee after his criminal record became news, still has a political issue that needs scratching. He’s announcing that he’s going to run an independent bid for Governor instead. Considering how thoroughly his dirty laundry has been aired, he seems likely to poll in the low single digits; I have no idea whether his candidacy (which now appeals mostly only to the steroid-addled pawnbroker demographic) is more harmful to Pat Quinn, Bill Brady, or just the world’s general sense of decency.

• MI-Gov: When I heard a few weeks ago that Geoffrey Fieger (the trial lawyer best known for defending Jack Kevorkian and second-best-known for his awful turn as 1998 Democratic gubernatorial nominee) was pondering another gubernatorial run, I laughed it off. The new EPIC-MRA poll makes it seem a bit more serious, though… which, in turn, if he won the primary, would pretty much foreclose any Democratic shot at winning the general. They only polled the Democratic primary and find, thanks to name rec within the Detroit metro area, Fieger is actually comfortably in the lead at 28%. Andy Dillon is at 20, Virg Bernero is at 13, Alma Wheeler Smith is at 8, other is at 2, and 29% are undecided. Fieger hasn’t moved much to act on his interest, though, and has only three weeks to collect the necessary 15,000 signatures to qualify.

• FL-24: Karen Diebel earned the backing of Tom Tancredo in the GOP primary in the 24th, focusing on (with Tancredo, what else?) in the immigration issue. It seems less of a pro-Diebel endorsement than more of a slap against her GOP opponent Craig Miller, though; in a 2006 Miami Herald op-ed, Miller (who was at that point chairman of the National Restaurant Association) came out pretty solidly on the “cheap labor” side of the Republican split on immigration.

• GA-12: Democrats looking for an upgrade from ex-state Sen. Regina Thomas (who raised $10K last quarter and has $4K CoH) for a primary challenge to recalcitrant Blue Dog John Barrow are going to have to keep looking. State Sen. Lester Jackson decided to take a pass, and will stay neutral in the Barrow/Thomas race. He’ll focus instead of supporting the Senate bid of Labor Comm. Michael Thurmond (another rumored, but no-longer, challenger to Barrow).

• LA-03: Bobby Jindal just appointed Scott Angelle, the state’s Sec. of Natural Resources, to the vacant position of Lt. Governor. Why is this filed under LA-03? Angelle was rumored to be one of the top contenders to run for the 3rd (although it was unclear whether he was going to do it as a Dem or a GOPer… Angelle was a Dem in the legislature, but appointed by GOP Gov. Jindal to his cabinet). With Angelle saying he’ll return to his job at Natural Resources after a permanent replacement is elected, that means that former state House speaker Hunt Downer is pretty well locked-in as the GOP nominee in the 3rd, and the Dems aren’t likely to get an upgrade from attorney Ravi Sangisetty, making this open seat a very likely GOP pickup. (H/t GOPVOTER.)

• NY-01: Randy Altschuler got the endorsement from the Suffolk County Conservative Party on Friday, which guarantees him a place on the ballot if he wants it. He’ll still need to overcome Chris Cox and George Demos in the competitive three-way moneybags duel in the GOP primary (where the county GOP recently switched its endorsement from Altschuler to Cox). It’s unclear whether he’d keep the Conservative line if he lost the GOP primary, as that would create a NY-23 type situation and pretty much assure Rep. Tim Bishop’s safety. (Unlike the patchwork of counties in the upstate districts, all of the 1st is within Suffolk.)

• NY-29: The GOP would really, really like to have a special election in the 29th, despite David Paterson’s apparent intention to play out the clock until November (and prevent a possible GOP pickup, given the difference in strength between the likely candidates). Several GOP party chairs within the district are preparing a lawsuit that would force a special election; the state GOP plans to assist.

• OH-02: Bad news for Jean Schmidt: although she got the Hamilton Co. GOP’s endorsement in the previous two elections, she’s going to have to proceed without it this year. They’re staying neutral as she faces several primary challengers, most notably Warren Co. Commissioner Mike Kilburn.

• PA-12: In battling independent expenditures in the 12th, the GOP went large, as the NRCC plunked down $235K on media buys. The DCCC also spent $16K on media buys.

• SC-04: The dean at Bob Jones University (the crown jewel in the buckle of the Bible Belt, in Greenville in the 4th), Robert Taylor, has announced he’s supporting Trey Gowdy in the GOP primary instead of incumbent Rep. Bob Inglis. The occasionally-moderate Inglis (more stylistically than in actual voting substance, though) faces at least three right-wing competitors in the primary, but could run into trouble if he doesn’t clear 50% and gets forced into a runoff with one of them.

• WV-01: There are dueling internal polls in the 1st, in the Democratic primary. State Sen. Mike Oliverio was first to release a poll, saying he led Rep. Alan Mollohan 41-33. (One caveat: Oliverio’s pollster is Orion Strategies, owned by Curtis Wilkerson, who also just happens to be Oliverio’s campaign manager.) Mollohan struck back with a poll from Frederick Polls giving him a 45-36 lead over Oliverio, with the primary fast approaching on May 11.

• MA-AG: Despite it now being widely known that Martha Coakley has a glass jaw (or what’s something more fragile than glass? what do they make those fake bottles out of that they use in bar fights in the movies?), she may actually get re-elected Attorney General without facing any GOP opposition whatsoever this fall. Of course, that may have something to do with the fact that the GOP’s entire bench in Massachusetts just got elected to the Senate.

• Pennsylvania: The Philadelphia Inquirer has an interesting look at the changes in registration in Pennsylvania over the last decade. The Democratic Party grew substantially in the state’s east, gaining 550,000 registrations up to 4.3 million voters. The GOP shrank by 103,000 registrations down to 3.1 million votes. The Dems lost 20,000 voters in the state’s southwest, though; in 2002, 27.8% of the state’s Dems were in the Pittsburgh area, but that’s down to 23.8%. Contrast that with the Philadelphia metro area: in its five counties, the number of Republicans dropped 13.5%, from a million to 873,000.

• Redistricting: Here’s the last redistricting resource you’ll ever need: a handy map showing congressional and legislative redistricting procedures for all 50 states. There’s also an accompanying document (pdf) which goes into remarkable detail about the various processes, and even contains an appendix of some of the ugliest current gerrymanders.

There seems to be a flurry of people attempting to redistrict California, so my plan may seem less adventurous than others – especially when compared to the Herculean effort by Silver Springs.

However, I have a different purpose – I want to create a Democratic map that respects existing political lines – cities and counties. The bottom line is that I create a map that creates 39 safe Democratic seats, 8 safe Republican seats, and 6 toss-up seats (each of the toss-up seats were won by Obama. Based on the 2000 demographic data, I create a map with 31 minority-majority districts, including 10 majority Hispanic districts and a plurality African-American district. (*I believe that my CA 45 will be minority-majority with the new census).

Like my NY contest entry, I claim that a safe Democratic seat is one where Obama won with 55% of the vote (Seven Republicans represent districts that gave Obama 55%/16 Republcans represent districts Obama won by over 53%). I have included in my description of each district where the current incumbents live, but their residences did not play a factor in how I drew the map. The map also has no deviation in district size greater than 702.

Northern California

In Northern California, there are five seats, Currently, Republicans hold three of the seats.

In this map, I created three safe Democratic seats, one tossup and one safe Republican seat. To do this, I decided to weaken CA 1 and pack Republicans into CA 4. I did keep the City of Sacramento intact, while dividing the rest of the county amongst 4 other districts.

CA 1 Current Incumbent – none

Population – 706,684

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	80%	1%	2%	10%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	66%	32%	60%
New District	55%	42%
Change	-11%	+10%	-5%

This district sheds territory in the Sacramento Valley for counties on California’s northern border – Siskiyou, Shasta, Modoc, and Lassen counties. While Representative Thompson no longer resides in the district, he, or another Democrat should continue to find this seat winnable.

CA 1 and CA 2 are tough districts to draw. On one hand, I could draw one very safe Democratic district that includes Humbolt, Mendicno, Lake, Napa and portions of Yolo (and Solono) counties. On the other hand, I could draw two 55% Obama districts. At worse, both seats are toss-up seats in open-seat elections.

CA 2 Current Incumbent – Thompson (D-St Helena); Herger (R-Chico)

Population – 706,763

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	68%	3%	6%	19%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	43%	55%	37%
New District	55%	44%
Change	+12%	-12%	+18%

The Northern California districts in the current map generally align North-South, creating two safe Republican seats. In my map, District 2 goes down the West side of the Sacramento Valley, extends into Napa County and South to Vacaville. This should be a strong Democratic seat, and Representative Herger should be in trouble.

CA 3 Current Incumbent – Lundgren (R-Gold River)

Population – 706,602

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	70%	5%	7%	12%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	43%	55%	37%
New District	53%	45%
Change	+10%	-11%	+16%

The Northern California districts in the current map generally align North-South, creating two safe Republican seats. In my map, District 2 hugs the Nevada border, from Plumas to Alpine County. The District stretches into Sacramento County and takes in the suburban areas immediately to the east and south of Sacramento.

This will likely be a swing district for the foreseeable future, but I expect that growth will occur in the Sacramento suburbs and the district will continue to trend Democratic.

CA 4 Current Incumbent – none

Population – 706,552

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	78%	2%	5%	11%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	44%	54%	37%
New District	44%	54%
Change	0%	0%	+7%

CD 4 is composed of the northern Sacramento suburbs and exurbs in Placer and Yuba counties, as well as the Cities of Folsom and Citrus Heights in Sacramento County. Representative McClintock (Thousand Oaks) still does not live in this district.

Reflecting the changing demographics, the district becomes slightly less white than before 84% – 78%, but it is unlikely to become more hospitable for Democrats anytime soon.

CA 5 Current Incumbent – Matsui (D-Sacramento)

Population – 706,349

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	50%	12%	1%	14%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	70%	28%	61%
New District	64%	34%
Change	-6%	+6%	+3%

The District encompasses the City of Sacramento and extends north to Sutter County. The District becomes slightly whiter and more Republican, but it remains a safe Democratic seat.

This District is a minority-majority seat.

CA 10 Current Incumbent – Garamendi (D-Walnut Grove)

Population – 706,645

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	52%	11%	12%	21%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	72%	27%	67%
New District	61%	37%
Change	-11%	+10%	-6%

This district remains a split Bay Area/Sacramento County District. It stretches from Vallejo in the West to the Southern Sacramento suburbs. It dips into Contra Costa County to encompass the cities of Antioch and Oakley and parts of Pittsburg. It also takes in conservative Lodi in San Joaquin County.

Representative Garamendi should like this district, despite the drop in Democratic performance, since he is now a resident of the district.

Bay Area

All safe Democrats.

CA 6 Current Incumbent – Woolsey (D-Petaluma)

Population – 706,661

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	75%	2%	4%	16%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	76%	22%	70%
New District	66%	24%
Change	-1%	+2%	+5%

CA 6 stays fundamentally the same, only taking in the City of Napa and losing parts of Sonoma County.

CA 7 Current Incumbent – Miller (D-Martinez)

Population – 706,254

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	65%	6%	12%	14%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	72%	29%	67%
New District	66%	32%
Change	-4%	+3%	1

This district now stays entirely in Contra Costa County.

CA 8 Current Incumbent – Pelosi (D-San Francisco)

Population – 707,082

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	46%	8%	30%	13%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	85%	12%	84%
New District	85%	13%
Change	0%	+1%	+1%

Slightly whiter than the current district

This is a minority-majority district.

CA 9 Current Incumbent – Lee (D-Oakland)

Population – 706,732

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	35%	25%	1%	17%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	88%	10%	86%
New District	89%	9%
Change	+1%	-1%	+3%

Oakland, Berkeley, Richmond.

This is a minority-majority district.

CA 11 Current Incumbent – McNerney (D-Pleasanton)

Population – 706,025

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	47%	10%	18%	20%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	54%	44%	45%
New District	70%	28%
Change	+16%	-16%	+25%

CA 11 stays in Alameda County and extends slightly north to Southeastern Contra Costa County. The district goes from a swing district to a safe Democratic seat. This does not have a detrimental affect on the Democratic lean in San Joaquin County.

This is a minority-majority district.

CA 12 Current Incumbent – Speier (D-Hillsborough)

Population – 706,600

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	45%	3%	27%	20%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	74%	24%	72%
New District	74%	24%
Change	0%	0%	+2%

Parts of San Francisco, Northern and Eastern San Mateo County.

This is a minority-majority district.

CA 13 Current Incumbent – Stark (D-Fremont)

Population – 706,283

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	44%	3%	27%	22%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	74%	24%	71%
New District	68%	31%
Change	-6%	+6%	-3%

This district now extends from Fremont in the North, circles around to the east and takes in part of South San Jose, and goes south to Gilroy.

Most of Stark's base is now part of McNerney's district (CA 11), but the change is necessary to shore up McNerney's seat. When Stark retires, a Democrat should easily pick up this seat.

This is a minority-majority district.

CA 14 Current Incumbent – Eshoo (D-Menlo Park)

Population – 706,637

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	55%	3%	23%	15%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	73%	25%	68%
New District	73%	25%
Change	0%	0%	+5%

CA 14 now stays out of Santa Cruz County, and extends east into the cities of Los Altos, Mountain View, Sunnyvale, Santa Clara, Cupertino, Saratoga, and Campbell.

CA 16 Current Incumbent – Honda (D-San Jose); Lofgren (D-San Jose)

Population – 706,632

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	30%	4%	28%	34%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	70%	30%	63%
New District	71%	28%
Change	+1%	-2%	+8%

It is difficult placing two Democrats in one seat, but with one of my goals to preserve City lines mostly intact, San Jose should be in one seat. However, packing Democrats in the Bay Area does not negatively affect seats elsewhere, and cracking the Bay Area leads to ugly looking districts throughout the state.

While preserving current incumbents can be valuable, the value of a map should be viewed as a whole, rather than any one particular district.

CA 17 Current Incumbent – Farr (D-Carmel)

Population – 706,776

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	55%	2%	6%	33%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	72%	26%	66%
New District	72%	26%
Change	0%	0%	+6%

CA 17 encompasses Santa Cruz and San Benito Counties, and northern Monterey County (including the cities of Carmel and Monterey).

Central Valley

In the San Joaquin Valley, I create two 55% Obama districts, two 50% Obama districts and a solid Republican district. Assuming that a 55% district will elect a Democrat except in the largest Republican wave years, the worst that can happen in this area is exactly what is the current Congressional Delegation split (3 R – 2 D). In this case, the Republican districts will lean Democratic and only grow stronger because of the demographic changes in the area.

CA 15 Current Incumbent – none

Population – 706,846

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	47%	7%	11%	31%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	–	–
New District	55%	43%
Change	–	–

CA 15 is a new district based in Stockton and rural Stanislaus County. In many respects, the district will reflect the political nature of the entire state, and with a growing Hispanic population, should grow more Democratic as the decade goes on.

This is a minority-majority district.

CA 18 Current Incumbent – Cardoza (D-Atwater)

Population – 706,832

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	48%	3%	6%	38%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	59%	39%	49%
New District	52%	46%
Change	-7%	+7%	+3%

Representative Cardoza will face challenges in this swing district. Personally, he was elected in 2002 with only 51% of the vote, so he should be able to remember how to run a competitive election (he was unopposed in 2008).

The district runs from Modesto to Merced, and extends a bit south to Democratic precincts in east Madera (bypassing Chowchilla). The district is rapidly growing, and the demographics should continue to favor Democrats by the end of the decade.

This is a minority-majority district.

CA 19 Current Incumbent – Radanovich (R-Madera) or new member

Population – 706,439

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	65%	2%	3%	26%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	46%	52%	38%
New District	39%	59%
Change	-7%	+7%	+1%

CA 19 is a very safe Republican district bordering Nevada, from Amador County to Tulare County in the South. The district splits the city of Madera in Madera County with CA 18. In Fresno County, conservative-leaning Clovis is in CA 19.

CA 20 Current Incumbent – Costa (D-Fresno)

Population – 700,226

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	34%	6%	9%	46%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	60%	39%	51%
New District	56%	42%
Change	-5%	+4%	+4%

This Fresno-based district now stays entirely in Fresno County. Obama’s performance drops slightly to preserve compactness.

This is a minority-majority district. I expect it will soon be a majority-Hispanic district.

CA 21 Current Incumbent – Nunes (R-Tulare)

Population – 706,283

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	31%	6%	4%	55%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	42%	56%	34%
New District	50%	48%
Change	+8%	-8%	+16%

King County, Portions of Tulare and Kern Counties. Democratic-leaning precincts in East Bakersfield are also in this district.

The current district goes north from Tulare County into Fresno County. Although I considered drawing Rep. Nunes out of this district, his residence in Tulare is among the most Democratic part of this district. A Democrat may have a hard time unseating Representative Nunes, but the demographic nature of the district will make it a swing seat in normal election years.

This is a majority-Hispanic district.

CA 22 Current Incumbent – McCarthy (R-Bakersfield)

Population – 706,992

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	64%	4%	3%	26%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	38%	60%	31%
New District	38%	60%
Change	0%	0%	+7%

CA 22 remains centrally located in Kern County; it does lose precincts in Bakersfield, and all of San Luis Obispo and Los Angeles Counties. It gains Republican areas in Santa Barbara County and Ventura County, including the cities of Camarillo and most of Moorpark.

CA 23 Current Incumbent – Capps (D-Santa Barbara)

Population – 706,162

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	62%	2%	4%	29%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	66%	32%	58%
New District	58%	40%
Change	-8%	+8%	0

Much of the Republican gain in this district come from the addition of all of San Luis Obispo and Monterey Counties, where the eastern portions of those counties are not as Democratic as the cities and precincts along the Pacific Ocean.

The district continues to be a strong Democratic district.

CA 24 Current Incumbent – Gallegly (R-Simi Valley); McClintock (R-Thousand Oaks)

Population – 707,144

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	55%	2%	5%	34%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	51%	48%	43%
New District	57%	41%
Change	+6%	-7%	+14%

The fruits of these changes in the Central California Coast is changing a swing (lean Republican) district into a solid Democratic district. I do not think that Elton Gallegly would survive in this district, after losing the conservative portions of Ventura and Santa Barbara Counties to CA 22.

Los Angeles County

Los Angeles County has 14 whole Congressional Districts and only has one district split between it and Orange and Riverside Counties. All 14 CD's are Democratic leaning.

CA 25 Current Incumbent – Dreier (R-San Dimas)

Population – 706,354

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	46%	11%	6%	33%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	49%	48%	40%
New District	56%	42%
Change	+7%	-6%	16%

The statistics for this district, which is entirely in Los Angeles County are for CA 25, but Representative Dreier (CA 26) resides in the district. The district includes Lancaster and Palmdale in the North, and Pomona in the Southeast.

A Democrat should be able to win this district, especially since most of the district would be new territory for Representative Dreier.

This is a minority-majority district.

CA 27 Current Incumbent – Schiff (D-Burbank)

Population – 706,392

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	32%	4%	9%	51%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	66%	32%	59%
New District	67%	31%
Change	+1%	-1%	+8%

CA 27 is a Los Angeles – Burbank district. My guess is that the district includes Northridge, Panorama City, San Fernando, and Mission Hills, among others.

 

The district is a majority-Hispanic district.

CA 28 Current Incumbent – Sherman (D-Sherman Oaks), Berman (D-Valley Village)

Population – 706,769

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	30%	4%	10%	51%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	76%	22%	71%
New District	75%	23%
Change	-1%	+1%	+4%

CA 28 stretches across Nothern Los Angeles, from (what I would say) Resenda to Van Nuys, to North Hollywood through Griffith Park to Atwater Village.

The current districts were drawn to ensure that both incumbents resided in different districts. Short of carving out a few precincts to draw Rep. Berman into the 27th, as both Representatives live around 4 miles from each other, I kept the districts more or less compact.

This is a majority-Hispanic district.

CA 29 Current Incumbent – none

Population – 706,337

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	38%	5%	17%	35%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	68%	31%	61%
New District	64%	34%
Change	-4%	+3%	+3%

CA 29 retains the core of the old district, Glendale and Pasadena, but loses Burbank and Alhambra, gaining more northern and eastern suburbs, Sierra Madre, Monrovia, and Aduza.

While Representative Schiff now resides in CA 27, the district should remain a solid Democratic seat.

This is a majority-minority district.

CA 30 Current Incumbent – Waxman (D-Beverly Hills)

Population – 706,711

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	74%	3%	8%	11%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	70%	28%	66%
New District	63%	36%
Change	-7%	+8%	-3%

Waxman's district hugs the Los Angeles – Ventura County line, from Kern County through Santa Clarita to Malibu, and then extends eastward through Los Angeles to Beverly Hills.

CA 32 Current Incumbent – Miller (R-Diamond Bar)

Population – 705,921

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	23%	3%	21%	50%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	68%	30%	62%
New District	61%	37%
Change	-7%	+7%	-1

This district swings easterly. In the North, the district includes Glendora and Covina, in the west: Irwingdale, Baldwin Park and El Monte, and in the south and east: La Habra Heights, Walnut and Diamond Bar.

Representative Chu's residence is now in CA 38, but a Democrat should easily win this district.

This is a majority-Hispanic district.

CA 33 Current Incumbent – Watson (D-Los Angeles)

Population – 706,250

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	25%	5%	16%	51%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	87%	12%	83%
New District	79%	19%
Change	-8%	+7%	-4%

CA 33 wraps around West Hollywood.

This is a majority-Hispanic district.

CA 34 Current Incumbent – Becerra (D-Los Angeles); Roybal-Allard (D-Los Angeles)

Population – 706,977

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	5%	7%	5%	81%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	80%	18%	77%
New District	85%	13%
Change	+5%	-5%	+8

This district includes East Los Angeles, Vernon, Maywood, Huntington Park and portions of Los Angeles County.

This is a majority-Hispanic district.

CA 35 Current Incumbent – Waters (D-Los Angeles)

Population – 706,135

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	2%	50%	2%	43%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	84%	14%	79%
New District	94%	5%
Change	+10%	-9%	+15%

This is a South Los Angeles, Inglewood, Compton district.

This is a majority-minority district.

CA 36 Current Incumbent – Harman (D-Venice)

Population – 706,943

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	45%	11%	12%	28%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	64%	34%	59%
New District	77%	21%
Change	+13%	-13%	+18%

CA 36 extends from Santa Monica to Hawthorne, and has an arm through central Los Angeles. The district becomes much stronger Democratic, as it stays more compact and northerly. A challenger to Representative Harman should find much easier terrain.

This is a minority-majority district.

CA 37 Current Incumbent – Richardson (D-Long Beach)

Population – 706,336

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	8%	19%	10%	60%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	80%	19%	74%
New District	80%	19%
Change	0%	0%	+6%

CA 37 is a donut shaped district around the City of Compton. It includes the cities of Gardena, Carson, northern Long Beach, Paramount, Lynwood, and South Gate. I am not sure if Representative Richardson would actually lives in this district.

This is a majority-Hispanic district.

CA 38 Current Incumbent – Napolitano (D-Norwalk), Linda Sanchez (D-Lakewood)

Population – 707,067

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	35%	7%	14%	41%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	66%	32%	59%
New District	63%	35%
Change	-3%	+3%	+4%

* Old District CA 39

Someone who is reading to this point may think, wait a second, why are there so many Democratic primaries in this map. I want to remind the readers that the current map is a Republican gerrymander, and second, I am more concerned with the entire state delegation rather than one individual. In this particular district, Representatives Napolitano and Sanchez reside in nearly adjacent cities. From pieces from the current CA 36, CA 37, and CA 46, we can create a Democratic performing district from Manhattan Beach to Long Beach. We could then carve up northern Orange County and create two marginal Democratic performing seats – one for Rep. Napolitano and one for Rep. Sanchez. I prefer the stronger seat and one seat that has the potential to become more Democratic performing.

This district extends from Long Beach to Sante Fe Springs along the Los Angeles County border.

This is a minority-majority district.

CA 39 Current Incumbent – none

Population – 706,502

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	18%	2%	24%	54%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	54%	44%
New District	65%	33%
Change	0%	+2%

This district stretches from South Pasadena and San Marnio to Whittier and Downey. The district includes parts of the current CA 38, CA 32, and CA 34.

This is a majority-Hispanic district.

CA 46 Current Incumbent – none

Population – 706,184

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	41%	7%	15%	33%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	-%	-%
New District	60%	38%
Change	-%	-%

This district is the payoff in reversing the Republican gerrymander. In this district, located from Torrence to Long Beach along the Pacific, a Democrat should win comfortably in most election cycles.

This is a minority-majority district.

Orange County

Orange County is currently split into 6 districts, and a Republican holds 5 of them. However, Obama won 3 of those districts in 2008. In this map, I create two safe Democratic seats, and only split Orange County five ways – with only one district extending out of the County.

CA 31 Current Incumbent – Calvert (R-Corona)

Population – 707,092

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	58%	3%	7%	28%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	50%	49%	40%
New District	44%	54%
Change	-6%	+5%	+4%

*old stats are for the current CA 44.

Representative Calvert's district becomes a safe Republican district that extends into Los Angeles County to take in the City of La Mirada, the Orange County cities of Brea and Yorba Linda, and the western edge of Riverside County, including Corona, Murietta and Norco.

CA 40 Current Incumbent – Loretta Sanchez (D-Garden Grove), Royce (R-Fullerton)

Population – 706,539

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	28%	3%	14%	53%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	60%	38%	49%
New District	55%	43%
Change	-5%	+5%	+6%

*old district stats for CA 47

This district combines Fullerton, most of Anaheim, and portions of Santa Ana and Garden Grove to create a competitive, but strongly leaning Democratic district in the north-central part of Orange County.

This is a majority-Hispanic district.

CA 42 Current Incumbent – none

Population – 706,001

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	74%	1%	8%	14%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	45%	53%	37%
New District	43%	55%
Change	-2%	+2%	+6%

This district includes the eastern portion of Anaheim, and Orange, extends South to include the suothern cities of Orange County, and extends north along the Pacific Ocean to include Laguna Beach and portions of Newport Beach. A Republican is very safe here.

CA 47 Current Incumbent – Rohrabacher (R-Huntington Beach)

Population – 706,996

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	56%	1%	21%	18%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	48%	50%	42%
New District	45%	53%
Change	-3%	+3%	+3%

*old district stats for CA 46

This district is an entirely Orange County district, encompassing the cities of Cypress, Seal Beach, Huntington Beach, Fountain Valley, and most of Garden Grove and Newport Beach.

This district should remain a safe Republican seat.

CA 48 Current Incumbent – Campbell (R-Irvine)

Population – 706,454

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	45%	2%	14%	36%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	49%	49%	40%
New District	56%	42%
Change	+7%	-7%	+16%

Creating a second Democratic leaning district in Orange County was not too difficult. I combine the cities of Irvine, Tustin, Costa Mesa and Laguna Woods, and portions of Orange and Santa Ana.

This is a majority-minority district.

Remainder of Southern California – San Bernardino, Riverside, San Diego, Imperial Counties

Currently only three Democrats represent parts of any of these Southern California counties. In my map, Democrats should represent at least 5 districts, Obama won two more districts, and Republicans should only have two safe seats.

CA 26 Current Incumbent – none

Population – 706,612

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	39%	7%	7%	43%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	51%	47%	44%
New District	53%	45%
Change	+2%	-2%	+9%

CA 26 is now located in San Bernardino and northern Riverside County. It includes the cities of Chino, Chino Hills, Ontario, and Rancho Cucamunga. This is a toss-up district, but should lean Democratic most years and the demographics favor the district becoming more strongly Democratic.

This is a minority-majority district.

CA 41 Current Incumbent – Lewis (R-Redlands)

Population – 706,905

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	63%	6%	3%	23%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	44%	54%	37%
New District	42%	55%
Change	-2%	+1%	+5%

This district is located entirely in San Bernardino County. It includes Representative Lewis' residence in Redlands, and the cities of Yucaipa, Victorville and Hesperia.

This is a safe Republican district.

CA 43 Current Incumbent – Baca (D-Rialto)

Population – 706,526

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	27%	14%	4%	51%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	68%	30%	58%
New District	66%	32%
Change	-2%	+2%	+8%

This district remains a safe Democratic district and a majority-Hispanic district. It includes the cities of San Bernardino, Fontana, Colton and Rialto.

This is a majority Hispanic district.

CA 44 Current Incumbent – none

Population – 706,679

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	43%	10%	6%	37%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	50%	49%	40%
New District	56%	42%
Change	+6%	-7%	+16%

This is now a solid Democratic district in northern Riverside County. The district includes Riverside, Moreno Valley, Banning, and Beaumont.

This is a minority-majoirty district.

CA 45 Current Incumbent – Bono Mack (R-Palm Springs)

Population – 707,189

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	51%	4%	2%	40%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	52%	47%	43%
New District	53%	46%
Change	0%	-1%	+9%

The percentages stay the same in CA 45, but the district becomes more urban. Palm Springs, Indio, and Coachella in the east are united with Lake Elsinore, Perris, and Hemet in the west.

I am not quite sure what percentage of the district is new, and I would expect that Representative Bono Mack could eke out a few more terms, but the demographics of the district are on our side, and a Democrat would likely to be favored in an open-seat election.

CA 49 Current Incumbent – Issa (R-Lakeside)

Population – 706,383

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	70%	2%	4%	21%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	45%	53%	38%
New District	39%	59%
Change	-6%	+6%	+1%

This district starts in the north along the southern border of Hemet, takes in Temecula and skirts along the city of San Diego eastern border, encompassing Escondido, Poway and Santee.

This is a very safe Republican seat.

CA 50 Current Incumbent – Bilbray (R-Calisbad) Hunter (R-Vista)

Population – 707,238

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	63%	3%	7%	23%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	51%	47%	44%
New District	54%	44%
Change	+3%	-2%	+10%

Two Republican incumbents in a district where Obama won with over 54%. Ah, fun with redistricting.

The district lies entirely in San Diego County along the Pacific Ocean, Oceanside, Vista, Carlsbad, San Marcos, and comes into the City of San Diego.

CA 51 Current Incumbent – Filner (D-Chula Vista)

Population – 707,057

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	28%	4%	9%	56%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	63%	36%	53%
New District	58%	40%
Change	-5%	+4%	+5%

This is a large district from Chula Vista and the border with Mexico to the border with Arizona and to the border of Riverside and San Bernadino County. This remains a safe Democratic seat.

This is a majority-Hispanic district.

CA 52 Current Incumbent – none

Population – 706,873

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	60%	5%	13%	17%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	45%	54%	38%
New District	56%	43%
Change	+11%	-11%	+18%

This is a Democratic district from North and East San Diego extending to El Cajon. 

CA 53 Current Incumbent – Davis (D-San Diego)

Population – 706,571

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	46%	11%	10%	29%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	69%	30%	61%
New District	64%	34%
Change	-5%	+4%	+3%

This Democratic district includes portions of San Diego, Coronado, La Mesa, and Lemon Grove.

This is a majority-minority district.

• AR-Sen, IL-Sen: The hot potato that no one wants to get caught holding today is money from Goldman Sachs. Interestingly, Republican Mark Kirk is dumping his Goldman money, but Blanche Lincoln, who was trying to recast herself as anti-derivatives crusader last week, is saying there’s no reason for her to return contributions from Goldman employees. (She said she wouldn’t take money from companies receiving TARP funds, but Goldman never did.)

• CO-Sen: A subpar fundraising quarter from Andrew Romanoff, who’s going to have to expand beyond his base of the activists and party insiders if he’s going to knock off Michael Bennet in the Democratic primary. He brought in only $386K in the first quarter and spent most of that, bringing his CoH to $502K.

• FL-Sen: Charlie Crist hasn’t pulled the trigger on switching over to an indie bid… yet… but he is making two things clear, in an interview with National Review Online. He’s not dropping out of the Senate race (“damn right, I’m staying in this race,” he says), and he’s not switching over to be a Democrat. He says he’s undecided about the indie bid, and has until April 30 to make up his mind.

• IN-Sen: Jim DeMint seems intent on putting his stamp on every contested Senate primary he can find, even if it doesn’t seem likely to amount to much of anything. Case in point, Indiana, where DeMint just endorsed state Sen. Marlin Stutzman in the GOP primary. Stutzman is woefully underfunded and likely to finish third in the primary, but he’s probably the most akin to DeMint, as DeMint isn’t likely to throw his support to worn-out establishment figure Dan Coats or John Hostettler, who seems to be throwing his lot in with the Paulists instead.

• NC-Sen: The state Teamsters previously backed Cal Cunningham in the Democratic Senate primary in North Carolina, but that’s prompted a bit of a fissure. The Charlotte-area Local 71 is instead endorsing Elaine Marshall, leery of Cunningham’s statement that seemed to disapprove of the “card check” provision of EFCA (although he subsequently did a partial back-track).

• OH-Sen: Jennifer Brunner’s fundraising seemed to improve a little, as she’s done more outreach to the netroots this quarter. “Little” is all relative though, as it’s still a day late and few million dollars short; she raised $144K in the first quarter and spent $125K, leaving her with $79K CoH.

• PA-Sen: If there’s one guy who knows how to do negative advertising, it’s Arlen Specter, and he turned both barrels on Joe Sestak today (who’s also launching his own first TV spot today), going after not only Sestak’s frequent House absences but even his Navy record. Meanwhile, Pat Toomey channels Mike Dukakis, breaking one of the cardinal rules of campaigning: no funny hats.

• UT-Sen: If a new poll that Dave Weigel got a glimpse of is to be believed, the incumbent Senator least likely to be coming back next year isn’t Blanche Lincoln or Harry Reid, but… Bob Bennett? A poll of 1,000 delegates to the Utah convention suggests that Bennett is in no position to even make it out of the convention onto the primary ballot: he has the support of only 15% of delegates and second-choice support of only 5% more. Mike Lee has 35% first-choice support and 22% second-choice support, so if Lee consolidates the support of minor candidates as they’re knocked off subsequent ballots and breaks the 60% threshold on the final two-way ballot, he could nail down the nomination right there. (Of course, considering how poorly Bennett is faring, he might not even make it to the final two-way ballot, running the risk of getting knocked off earlier.) Bennett’s only hope is to make it to the final ballot and keep Lee from getting 60% there, which would let him get to the primary, where he might be able to get a majority among the non-activist, name-rec-driven public.

• FL-10: I can always count on Daily Kos’s Steve Singiser to find that stray poll that fell down the slot between the washer and dryer that everyone else missed. He points to a several-week old poll from Dem pollster Anzalone-Liszt that shows Democratic state Sen. Charlie Justice in surprisingly good shape, considering the nature of the year, his underfunded candidacy, the senior-heavy population of the 10th, and most of all that he’s running against the unsinkable Bill Young. Of course, he’s still down 49-34, so this still may not be Justice’s year.

• MI-01: Republicans look like they’ve gotten a state Senator into the race to replace the retiring Rep. Bart Stupak: Jason Allen. Allen has one major liability, though: not only is he not from the Upper Peninsula, where the district’s cultural center of gravity is, but his Traverse City-area house isn’t even in the district. There is a bit of overlap between his legislative district and the 1st, at least.

• NY-23: Hot cat fud a-flyin’ in the 23rd! Matt Doheny, the investment banker who lost the GOP selection process to Dede Scozzafava for the special election despite bringing bushels of his own money to the table, is still angling for the GOP nomination despite the presence of Doug Hoffman. And Doheny is getting some traction among the local GOP establishment, many of whom still resent Hoffman and his Conservative Party candidacy for essentially screwing up what would have otherwise been a slam-dunk. Doheny picked up the endorsement of the Oneida County GOP, and the backing of individual GOP chairs in three other counties. That institutional divide can also be seen in their fundraising; Doheny raised $363K last quarter, while Hoffman, despite his 15 minutes of fame, raised only $13K.

• PA-07: Aggressively pursuing ballot challenges against, well, everyone else on the ballot seems to have paid off for Democratic state Rep. Bryan Lentz. His final remaining Democratic primary opposition, political consultant Teresa Touey, got removed from the ballot after a number of signatures were invalidated, leaving Lentz the only Dem in the primary. He’ll face Republican ex-US Attorney Pat Meehan in the general to replace Joe Sestak.

• NRCC: The NRCC upgraded its “Young Guns” program again in the wake of first-quarter reports, bumping about a dozen challengers to the middle “Contenders” tier and adding 40 more (pretty much anyone who showed a pulse in their FEC reports) to the bottom “On the Radar” tier. It’s a long, long list, so click the link to see all the names.

• DCCC: CQ’s Greg Giroux takes a look at how the various members of the DCCC’s Frontline program (House seats playing defense) fared in the last fundraising quarter. Gabrielle Giffords leads in CoH, while Alan Grayson had the biggest one-quarter haul. To no one’s surprise, Larry Kissell and Carol Shea-Porter bring up the rear.

• Redistricting: The Sacramento Bee has a detailed look at the money-bags interests behind dueling redistricting measures. A big Republican donor, Charles Munger, is behind proposed Proposition 14 in California, which will be on the June primary ballot and proposes a citizen redistricting panel for congressional districts similar to the one in place for legislative districts. However, (usually) Dem donor Haim Saban is trying to get an initiative in place to undo Prop 11’s panel for legislative redistricting and giving the power back to the legislature, which is odd, since he supported Prop 11 when it was on the ballot. One other good redistricting piece: Josh Goodman looks at population shifts in New York over the last decade, which are subtle compared with fast-growing states but suggest that more legislative power will be consolidated in New York City next decade with or without the rejiggering for counting prisoners.

• Election results: Yesterday’s big event was the special election in FL-19, the first real electoral test after the passage of HCR. The allegedly massive opposition to healthcare reform on the part of the district’s many seniors never really materialized. Democratic state Sen. Ted Deutch beat Republican Ed Lynch 62-35, with very little falloff from Obama’s 65-34 performance in 2008. (Contrast that with John Garamendi’s so-so 53-43 performance in November’s CA-10 special election, a similarly 65-33 district in 2008.)

I should also pause to offer a little credit to Texas’s Republicans, who voted for the less crazy candidates in the Board of Education and Supreme Court runoffs, and in a bigger surprise to me, for the Hispanic-surnamed candidates in the TX-17 and TX-23 runoffs (which, based on incumbent Victor Carrillo’s trouncing in the Railroad Commissioner primary, seemed unlikely to happen). The NRCC has to be pleased to see the wealthier and less wingnutty Bill Flores and Quico Canseco emerge. Rep. Chet Edwards, however, is one guy who knows how to stand and fight, and he wasted no time hitting Flores hard and defining him as a carpetbagger in big oil’s pocket.

One other leftover issue from last night: two races in California, as expected, are headed to runoffs. In Republican-held SD-12, Republican Assemblyman Bill Emmerson will face off against Democrat Justin Blake (the GOPers combined got more than 60% of the vote, so this is a likely hold), while in safely-Democratic AD-43, Democratic lawyer Mike Gatto will face off with Republican Sunder Ramani to replace now-LA city councilor Paul Krekorian. Gatto seemed to shoot the gap in this heavily Armenian-American district after the two Armenian candidates, Chahe Keuroghelian and Nayiri Nahabedian, nuked each other.

• AR-Sen: Bill Halter’s primary campaign gained more momentum, as he picked up an endorsement from the Alliance for Retired Americans, pleased with his time as a Social Security Administration official. One group that really isn’t getting on board with Halter, though, is the Berry family; first outgoing Rep. Marion Berry dissed Halter, and now his son, Mitch, is head of a group, Arkansans for Common Sense, that’s running ads attacking Halter on the Social Security front. (Are there any Arkansans who are actually against common sense?)

• CO-Sen: Looks like GOP establishment candidate Jane Norton sees the handwriting on the wall and is taking a page from Democrat Michael Bennet’s book: not able to rely on getting on the ballot via activist-dominated convention (where teabagger-fueled Ken Buck seems likely to triumph), she’s making plans to qualify by finding 1,500 signatures in each of the state’s seven congressional districts. Speaking of Bennet, he’s still the fundraising kingpin in this race; he just announced he raised $1.4 million last quarter, well ahead of Norton’s $816K.

• FL-Sen: Charlie Crist may have sounded Shermanesque last week in his determination not to switch to an Independent bid for Governor, but apparently now there’s increasing moves within his inner circle to move in that direction. Unnamed advisors are floating the idea to the WSJ today.

• IN-Sen: Dan Coats seems to be having more trouble making the transition from the free-wheelin’ world of high-stakes lobbying back to the humdrum electoral politics world, where you actually have to follow the rules and stuff. He’s 10 days overdue on filing his finance disclosure reports with the FEC. One note that the Beltway press seemed to miss though: his main GOP primary opponent, ex-Rep. John Hostettler hasn’t made his filing yet either. (Of course, fundraising was never Hostettler’s strong suit. Or even his weak suit.)

• NC-Sen (pdf): PPP issued its latest installment in polls of the Senate general election in its home state. Maybe the biggest surprise is that incumbent Republican Richard Burr’s approvals are just continuing to fall; he’s currently at 32/41 (while likeliest opponent Elaine Marshall is in positive territory at 19/11). Also encouraging, I suppose, is that the actual human Democrats are starting to draw even with Generic D (while previous polls have had Generic D far outpacing them), showing they’re getting better-defined. Burr leads Generic D 43-38, while he leads Marshall 43-37, and leads both Cal Cunningham and Kenneth Lewis 43-35.

• NY-Sen-B: With ex-Gov. George Pataki’s phantom interest in this race finally having been dispelled, Swing State Project is removing this race from its “Races to Watch” list.

• PA-Sen, PA-Gov (pdf): One more poll in the rapidly-becoming-overpolled Pennsylvania Senate race, this time from Republican pollster Susequehanna. They use an LV model, and find Pat Toomey with a 48-38 lead over Arlen Specter. Of more immediate consequence, they find Specter leading Joe Sestak 42-28 in the Dem primary. They also polled both primaries in the gubernatorial race, finding Dan Onorato seeming to break away from the ill-defined pack among the Dems. Onorato is at 32, followed by Joe Hoeffel at 13, Jack Wagner at 6, and Anthony Williams at 4. Tom Corbett beats down Sam Rohrer on the GOP side, 50-7. After marshaling his resources, Specter is finally starting to open fire; he’s up with his first TV ad of the cycle starting today.

• WI-Sen: The only thing that’s sure is that Tommy Thompson likes to see his name in the press. There’s been a lot of conflicting reporting about Tommy Thompson today, with many outlets running with the story that he’s decided against running for Senate (that all traces back to one leak to a local TV station, although it sounds like Politico got some confirmation from an anonymous GOP source). Other outlets are emphasizing that Thompson’s spokesperson says that Thompson hasn’t made a final decision, though. Either way, Thompson will be announcing his plans at a Tea Party rally tomorrow in Madison, so our pain will be ended tomorrow one way or the other.

• MA-Gov: Here’s more evidence for my expectation that Dem-turned-indie Tim Cahill will be running to the right (or at least to the incoherent-angry-working-class-Catholic-guy-position) of the Republican in the Massachusetts gubernatorial race this year. He’s appearing at today’s Tea Party rally on Boston Common today, the same one with Sarah Palin that Scott Brown ditched (although MA-10 candidate Joe Malone and GOP gubernatorial underdog Christy Mihos will be there). Likely GOP gubernatorial nominee Charlie Baker (from the party’s old-school moderate WASP tradition) decided against attending, probably out of fears that he might get jostled by some ruffian and spill some of his gin and tonic on his white Bermuda shorts.

• MN-Gov: Two blasts from the past in the Minnesota gubernatorial race. Walter Mondale weighed in in favor of Democratic state House speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, while a guy I’ve never heard of named Al Quie, who claims to have been governor from 1979 to 1983, endorsed Republican Marty Seifert.

• NE-Gov: Via press release, the campaign for Democratic candidate Mark Lakers let us know that he took in $314K, impressive considering his late entry to the campaign.

• AL-07: State Rep. Earl Hilliard Jr. got an endorsement from the United Steelworkers, a union that seems to still have a lot of clout in Birmingham, once a major steel town.

• AZ-03: Now here’s some news I didn’t expect: the fundraising champ in the 3rd isn’t one of the many state legislators running here, but rather attorney (and vice-presidential progeny) Ben Quayle. He pulled in $550K in the first quarter, thanks no doubt to family connections. There are a couple other self-funders in the race too, but the elected officials seem to be lagging: case in point, well-known ex-state Sen. Pamela Gorman, who raised only $37K and ends with $23K CoH.

• FL-24: Rep. Suzanne Kosmas announced a haul of $260K for the first quarter. That’s less than the $340K reported by her likely GOP opponent, steakhouse mogul Craig Miller (although a slab of his money was apparently carved out of his own personal funds); Kosmas has a big CoH advantage, though, sitting on more than $1 million.

• GA-07: Retiring Republican Rep. John Linder didn’t look far to endorse a replacement for him: he gave his nod to his former chief of staff, Rob Woodall.

• HI-01: Sen. Dan Inouye just transferred $100K of his money to the DCCC, despite appearances that they’re actively backing Ed Case, rather than Colleen Hanabusa, who has the support of Inouye (and pretty much everyone else in the local Democratic establishment). Inouye has apparently been working behind the scenes, including reaching out to Nancy Pelosi, to get the DCCC to dial back their Case support, so maybe the cash infusion will give him a little more leverage. (Inouye is sitting on $3.2 million and faces little if any opposition this year.)

• IN-03: Nice fundraising numbers from Democrat Tom Hayhurst, who ran a surprisingly close race against Rep. Mark Souder in 2006 and is back for another try. Hayhurst has racked up $234K CoH, more than Souder ($99K in the first quarter).

• IN-05: Politico has a look at Rep. Dan Burton’s difficult primary in the 5th, in Indianapolis’s dark-red suburbs. While Burton may actually be safer this year compared with 2008 (since he has four opponents instead of just one), the article traces the roots of the local GOP’s discontent with him, and also shows the magnitude of his collapse in support: only 2 of the 11 local party organizations are supporting Burton this time.

• MO-08: Another Dem in a dark-red seat who keeps impressing everybody with his tenacity is Tommy Sowers. The veteran and college instructor, who’s challenging Rep. Jo Ann Emerson, raised $295K in the first quarter and is now sitting on $675K CoH.

• NM-02: Ex-Rep. Steve Pearce can write himself his own checks if he needs to, but he may not need to at this rate. Pearce raised $277K in the first quarter, and now sits on $708K. Democratic Rep. Harry Teague hasn’t reported yet, but in the duel of wealthy oil guys, he can self-fund too if need be.

• NY-14: With Democratic primary challenger Reshma Saujani having some success on the financial front, Rep. Carolyn Maloney got some top-tier help from Barack Obama, who endorsed her and sent out a fundraising appeal on her behalf.

• PA-11: If this doesn’t wake up Rep. Paul Kanjorski from his nap, I don’t know what will. Three-time Republican opponent Lou Barletta raised $300K in the first quarter. An important caveat: there was no mention of cash on hand, which is telling because Barletta was still saddled with a lot of debt from his 2008 campaign when he decided to run again. (UPDATE: Barletta’s CoH is now $205K.)

• PA-17: Republican state Sen. David Argall raised a tolerable but not-too-impressive $125K in the first quarter. He’ll need more than that to battle Rep. Tim Holden, who, if nothing else, has great survival skills (he had the worst district of any freshman who survived 1994, and then survived a 2002 gerrymander designed to rub him out). In fact, he’ll need more than that just for his primary; heretofore unknown GOP opponent ex-Marine Frank Ryan raised $70K in the first quarter.

• Redistricting: Maryland beat out New York to be the first state in the nation to enact legislation that will, in terms of redistricting, treat prisoners as residents of their last known address, rather than where they’re incarcerated (and thus move the center of gravity back toward the cities from the countryside). Also, on the redistricting front, if there’s one group of people who are the target audience for a whole movie about redistricting (Gerrymandering), it’s the crowd at SSP. The film’s director has a diary up, touting its release in two weeks at the Tribeca Film Festival.