Tag: 2010 House Open Seat Watch

It’s been over two months since we last took stock of the open seat situation in the House, and a lot has happened since then. So, once again, our crack team of open seat forensic analysts down at SSP Labs have put together a new edition of the 2010 House Open Seat Watch.

As always, we’ve compiled three separate lists: one of confirmed vacancies/retirements, another of potential open seats, and a third – available below the fold – of names that have dropped off the watch list. As always, please note that “age” in our charts reflects the incumbent’s age on election day, 2010. Blue boxes indicate a new entry (or an incumbent who has been shuffled between categories). All tables are sortable – just click on any column header to sort.

We’ve got eight new additions to our big board of House retirements and vacancies, five of them Democratic, and three Republican. We’ve also had one subtraction, from GOP Rep. Jim Gerlach — although since he still technically has a primary challenger, he’s staying on the watch list for now.

What’s notable is that, just two months ago, we had zero “true” retirements (as opposed to attempts to seek higher office), and now we have exactly eight members saying goodbye to elected office in 2011.  Of the twelve Democratic-held open seats, Republicans have a chance of winning all but AL-07, FL-17, and FL-19. On the other hand, I think I count about two and a half legitimate pick-up opportunities for Democrats among the R-held seats up for grabs.

Meanwhile, eight new names are added to our watch list, and 11 have come off:

A list of incumbents whose names we’ve removed from the Open Seat Watch is available below the fold.

Resolved vacancies.

Looks like one big shoe is already dropping in the wake of the Massachusetts special election — one more big-name Republican is weighing a Senate bid, against a Democrat previously thought to be unassailable: Evan Bayh.

In the wake of winning MA, GOPers are looking to put 1 more state in play if they can convince House GOP Conference chair Mike Pence to run against Sen. Evan Bayh (R-IN).

Pence and his aides will meet with top staffers at the NRSC tomorrow, several sources tell Hotline OnCall, where they will discuss a possible bid. The NRSC has polled IN, and their survey shows Pence in a competitive position, though he trails Bayh in initial matchups.

My first response, when this was bubbling up as a rumor, was puzzlement, as Mike Pence would be giving up a coveted #3 slot on the GOP leadership ladder for an uphill run against a man with huge name rec and an eight-digit war chest. Pence seems better-known among national-level news junkies than he probably is in, say, Gary or Evansville or anywhere else outside his district — and he starts way behind the 8-ball on fundraising, with only $462K banked (thanks to not having to run competitive races in his red district). Also, rumors have previously had Pence, if looking for any promotion, to be considering the Presidential race in 2012 instead (although he’d have a number of movement conservative activists in his corner, he’d still be an extreme dark horse there, though).

Still, with his House leadeship position, he should be able to start filling his coffers quickly if he did jump into the Senate race. And as for the national ambitions, the NRSC has apparently has though that through, too: “Senate strategists plan to point out those ambitions are difficult to achieve without a Senate seat.”

One other point: ex-Rep. John Hostettler is already in the race for the GOP, along with a few other odds and ends (maybe most notably state Sen. Marlin Stutzman). I’m sure, though, the NRSC would like an upgrade from the often-embarrassing Hostettler, but given Hostettler’s previous track record of uncooperativeness with the national party, he seems unlikely to step aside in a primary. Pence could find himself stepping into an unenviable situation that replicates a lot of other Republican Senate primaries: he’d be running as the “establishment” candidate against a movement conservative outsider even further to his right.

RaceTracker Wiki: IN-Sen

Bad news:

Snyder released the following statement:

“2010 will be a robust election year during which great forces collide to set the direction for our country for another two years. Over the last several weeks Betsy and I have had discussions with family and friends including other members of Congress (Rep. David Price, Rep. Susan Davis, and our own Sen. Mark Pryor) regarding the appropriate balance between family and congressional service when a family has very young children. I have concluded that these election-year forces are no match for the persuasive and powerful attraction of our three 1-year old boys under the leadership of their 3-year old brother, and I have decided not to run for re-election. It is the greatest professional honor of my life to represent Arkansas in the U.S. House of Representatives, and I am so grateful to the people of Arkansas to have had this wonderful opportunity. That honor will now pass to someone else at the conclusion of this term.

“This decision has not been an easy one. Two weeks ago my campaign manager came on board, but that first morning I advised him to do nothing to begin the campaign because of my doubts regarding running. The onset of the new year, the time I always begin organizing my campaigns, did nothing to remove these doubts.

This seat was already looking to be a very tough hold (especially given that SUSA poll released earlier today showing Snyder trailing ex-US Attorney Tim Griffin by 56-39). Now it looks to be even tougher, unless Democrats can find a candidate sprinkled with magical Mike Beebe dust all over their person in this Little Rock-based district.

UPDATE: Here’s an idea for a replacement candidate: Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, who has previously been mulling a run for U.S. Senate. Halter lives in the district (North Little Rock), and was born there, too. I think he’d have to seriously consider the opportunity.

Just to give you a better sense of this district, it has a PVI of R+5. Al Gore lost the CD by 48-49 in 2000, Kerry by 48-51 in 2004, and Obama by 44-54 in 2008. Not a good trend, but that wasn’t as bad of a deterioration as seen in the districts held by Marion Berry (AR-01) and Mike Ross (AR-04), where the Democratic share of the vote fell all the way down to the high-30s in 2008.

RaceTracker Wiki: AR-02

Here’s a nice new piece of ridiculousness for you to add to the pile:

Former DeKalb County Chief Executive Officer Vernon Jones (D) is set to kick off his primary challenge to sophomore Rep. Hank Johnson (D) in Georgia’s 4th district.

According to a release from Jones camp, the official campaign announcement will take place at 2 p.m. Friday afternoon in Decatur, Ga.

Jones, as you may recall, is a two-time Bush voter with some bad baggage who was most recently seen losing the 2008 Democratic Senatorial primary to Jim Martin. Jones may not be the only candidate in the race; DeKalb County Commissioners Lee May and Connie Stokes have also made noises about running, but it remains to be seen whether they’ll defer to Jones, their former colleague.

RaceTracker Wiki: GA-04

Cue the “Dems are doomed! Wave of retirements! Rats jumping ship!” narrative! Another retirement! Oh, wait… another Republican?

Rep. John Shadegg (R-Ariz.), who briefly announced his retirement last cycle but then opted to seek another term, will not run for reelection in 2010, a GOP source confirms.

Shadegg becomes the third Republican to announce his retirement in recent weeks. He joins Reps. Henry Brown (R-S.C.) and George Radanovich (R-Calif.).

Shadegg, as you might recall, attempted to retire in 2008 but thought better of it (or was made to think better of it); he faced a solid challenge from Democrat Bob Lord, although he won by double digits in the end. Looks like he decided 2010 was a safer year, in terms of helping the party retain the seat, for him to hit the exit.

Right now, all the Dems seem to have on the plate is attorney and former Gary Hart staffer Jon Hulburd, although maybe an open seat will generate some interest higher up on the totem pole (this R+9 seat in middle-class and mostly white northern Phoenix, Republican as long as it has existed, doesn’t seem to have much Democratic bench though). As for a candidate on the GOP side, Shadegg’s Chief of Staff, Sean Noble, may be interested in succeeding his boss.

UPDATE: OK, it sounds like the Dem establishment will be happy to have Jon Hulburd stay in the race: he’s about to report $300,000 raised last quarter, and that’s from donors, not from his own wallet (although apparently he can self-fund too if need be). That might change the assumptions about Shadegg’s motivations, too — not wanting to face another tough race, rather than departing out of confidence. This race will be worth keeping an eye on.

RaceTracker Wiki: AZ-03

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• CO-Sen: Republican Senate candidate Jane Norton has finally realized that she might be her own worst enemy. Having reeled off a serious of gaffes and wtf? moments that were captured on tape in recent months (sitting silently while a speaker called Barack Obama a “Muslim,” saying that Obama cares more about terrorists’ rights than protecting the country, and just recently saying that government shouldn’t be involved in health care at all), she’s decided that, rather than stopping saying dumb things, the best approach is to have that nasty Democratic tracker banned from all her appearances.

• NY-Sen-B: Ex-Rep. Harold Ford Jr. has gotten a green light of sorts (or at least a shrug of the shoulders) from David Paterson regarding a primary challenge, who said it was “OK” but that he might look for a different state to do it in. A new piece in the NYT today (who seem to have been interested in promoting his candidacy) may do Ford more harm than good, filled with details of helicopter flights and chauffeured cars that help paint him as an out-of-touch Wall Streeter, not exactly a position you want to run from these days (maybe most damning: “He has breakfast most mornings at the Regency Hotel on Park Avenue, and he receives regular pedicures. (He described them as treatment for a foot condition.)” Ford also might need to explain to the electorate when he decided that Kirsten Gillibrand was no longer acceptable; it turns out that he gave her $1,000 just seven months ago. Finally, with Ford making clear that he’s going to run against health care reform, and awash in a history of pro-life pronouncements, PPP’s Tom Jensen looks at New York exit polls and finds a way for Ford to get to 25% in the primary, but wonders where that other 75% is going to come from.

• PA-Sen: The Joe Sestak candidacy continues to have its desired effect: Arlen Specter just changed his position on the Dawn Johnsen nomination, and will vote for her confirmation, taking it to 60 votes. One possible unintended consequence, though: the more Sestak succeeds at pushing Specter to the left, the less opportunity for differentiating himself in (and thus a basis for winning) the Democratic primary.

• TX-Sen, TX-Gov: We have dueling rumors coming out of Texas, regarding Kay Bailey Hutchison. Fox’s El Paso affiliate is reporting that KBH no longer plans to resign her Senate seat, either before or after the Republican gubernatorial primary. However, a spokesperson from the KBH camp is now saying that report is wrong, and she will resign only when the health care and cap-and-trade debates are over.

• AZ-Gov: A serious primary challenge just hit Arizona Governor Jan Brewer in the eye, like a big pizza pie. State Treasurer Dean Martin put an end to the speculation and officially announced his candidacy today. (There’s still no report on whether CA-41’s Rep. Jerry Lewis will offer his endorsement, or if their feud is still continuing.) While Martin is the highest-profile GOPer to challenge Brewer so far, he’ll still have to fight his way through a crowd of other anti-Brewers, perhaps most prominently former state party chair John Munger.

• CT-Gov: It looks like the Republican gubernatorial field in Connecticut will be limited to Lt. Gov. Michael Fedele, rich guy Tom Foley, and now Larry DeNardis, a 71-year-old who most recently was president of the University of New Haven, but served one term in the U.S. House, representing New Haven from 1980 to his defeat in 1982. (Little known bit of trivia: the guy DeNardis defeated in that House race? Joe Lieberman.) State Senate minority leader John McKinney (who previously demurred from a CT-04 run) just reversed course and said he wouldn’t run; state House minority leader Lawrence Cafero, another potential candidate, also recently said ‘no.’

• IA-Gov: Here’s an iceberg on the horizon for the seemingly unsinkable Terry Branstad campaign: poor relations with the state’s religious right, coming to a head now with the prominent Iowa Family PAC endorsing rival Bob Vander Plaats and having unkind words for the insufficiently conservative Branstad, whom they won’t endorse for the general even if he is the nominee. (Discussion underway in desmoinesdem‘s diary.)

• MA-Gov: A day after PPP polled him as a Democratic fill-in for Deval Patrick in the gubernatorial race, SoS William Galvin said that, no, he wasn’t planning on launching a primary challenge against Patrick. Galvin, who’s been SoS since 1994, instead said he might be interested in moving to AG, assuming Martha Coakley becomes Senator.

• SC-Gov: Well, that was kind of anticlimactic. L’affaire Sanford wrapped up today with a quick censure vote of Gov. Mark Sanford that passed the state House by a 102-11 margin.

• FL-25: A longer CQ piece on the House landscape in Florida has an interesting tidbit that suggests that former Miami mayor Manny Diaz, who would have been a top-tier contender in the 25th had he run, won’t be running. Diaz has taken a fellowship appointment at Harvard’s JFK School, which would probably preclude a run. After Democrats running strong in all three Cuban-American districts in 2008, it looks like free passes will be handed out this year.

• MD-04: All previous indications had been that a primary challenge from the right against Rep. Donna Edwards was a go, but instead Prince George’s County State’s Attorney Glenn Ivey had announced he won’t pursue that. He’d also been linked with possible runs for county executive and state Senate, so his next step is uncertain.

• NC-08: PPP adds a little information from yesterday’s poll of the 8th, which had freshman Rep. Larry Kissell comfortable against his GOP opposition. The possibility of a primary from the left, from attorney Chris Kouri, has been floated, but Kissell dispatches Kouri easily, 49-15. Only 29% of Democratic respondents in the district want Kissell replaced with someone more progressive, and 27% think Congressional Dems are too liberal vs. 12% who think they’re too conservative, suggesting (in tandem with his general election strength) that his occasional breaks from the party line may be helping more than hurting him.

• NH-02: Gonna make you Swett! The long-rumored  candidacy by wealthy Lieberdem Katrina Swett may be finally getting off the ground, as an invitation to a Jan. 31 Swett event says “Come meet our next U.S. Congresswoman!”

• OH-02: After looking into the possibility of an independent run against Rep. Jean Schmidt and probably Dem nominee David Krikorian, now Surya Yalimanchili (aka that guy from “The Apprentice”) says he’ll get into the Democratic primary instead, saying that his focus on jobs and economic growth is better served there.

• SC-01: After renewed interest in the race following the retirement announcement of GOP Rep. Henry Brown, 2008 candidate Linda Ketner has finally decided against another run. She instead asked her supporters to take a look at Robert Burton, already an announced candidate. On the GOP side, state Sen. Larry Grooms, a frequent Mark Sanford nemesis, cut short his long-shot gubernatorial bid, boxed out by bigger names like Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer and AG Henry McMaster. This might presage a run in the still-developing GOP field in the 1st, but he said that’s “unlikely” and he’d rather concentrate on the state Senate.

• TX-04: Add one more serious teabagger primary challenge to the ever-growing list, this time a challenge in the super-dark-red 4th to long-time Rep. Ralph Hall. Jerry Ray Hall (no relation, apparently) is throwing $350K of his own money into race in the fast-approaching March primary. It’s unclear what his beef with the conservative other Hall is (he was a Democrat until 2004 – albeit the most conservative one in the House — so that’s probably good enough).

• VA-11: Rep. Gerry Connolly (by virtue of his Dem-leaning suburban district) still seems the safest of the three Virginia freshman, but things got harder for him with the entry of another GOP challenger: Fairfax Co. Supervisor Pat Herrity (who narrowly lost the race to become County Chairman after Connolly ascended to the House). Herrity still faces a primary against self-funding Keith Fimian, who lost big-time to Connolly in the open seat race in 2008 and won’t get out of Herrity’s way; Fimian may still be able to beat the better-known Herrity based on his big cash stash.

• WA-02: No one has really thought of Rep. Rick Larsen as vulnerable lately, as he dismantled his at-least-somewhat-touted Republican opponents in the last two elections in this D+3 district. Still, a long-time foe has taken a look at the more favorable Republican landscape and decided to take another whack at Larsen. John Koster (a state Rep. at the time) ran against Larsen and lost in 2000, when it was an open seat following Republican Rep. Jack Metcalf’s retirement. Koster has spent most of the decade on the suburban Snohomish County Council (where he’s currently the only Republican).

• Election results: A lot happened last night, most notably the upset victory by Democratic state Del. Dave Marsden in Virginia’s state Senate district 37 by 317 votes, good for a pickup and a slightly bigger (22-18) Democratic edge in that chamber – which helps insulate against Bob McDonnell trying to Beshear the Dems back into the minority there. Also in Virginia, businessman Jeff McWaters held dark-red Senate district 8 for the GOP, defeating Democrat Bill Fleming by a 79-21 margin. Two other dark-red legislative districts (both made vacant because of Republican sex scandals) stayed in GOP hands, as California’s AD-72 was held by Chris Norby, 63-31, and Tennessee’s HD-83 was won 67-30 by Mark White. In New Hampshire, the field is now set in a potentially competitive general election to fill SD-16 on Feb. 16 (the swing district was vacated by GOPer Ted Gatsas, elected Manchester mayor). State Rep. David Boutin won the GOP nod; he’ll face off against Dem state Rep. Jeff Goley. Dems can push up to a 15-9 edge with a pickup here.

Lt. Governor John Cherry had been considered to be a shoo-in for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination until a week ago, when he abruptly ended his bid, citing poor fundraising (and also no doubt motivated by poor general election polling). However, unlike the other dropouts in CO-Gov and CT-Sen, where we had top-tier replacements eagerly waiting in the wings, in Michigan we seem to have a whole bunch of lesser Democrats milling around, bumping into each other and sizing each other up. Let’s take a look at the field:

Who’s in:

• Andy Dillon is almost certainly in; he’s formed an exploratory committee in the wake of Cherry’s exit. The termed-out state House speaker may be as close to a front-runner as we have now, although he’d never escaped single-digits when polled in the Democratic primary earlier. It’s unlikely that the centrist Dillon, however, will get much of a warm reception from the state’s liberal base (he’s pro-life) or from organized labor (he’s been the bane of their existence lately), so he’d still likely face serious primary opposition.

• Hansen Clarke is definitely in. He’s a termed-out state Senator from Detroit who previously lost a Detroit mayoral race. He seems to fall more toward the “some dude” end of the spectrum.

• Alma Wheeler Smith, an African-American state Representative from Ypsilanti, is probably the best-positioned challenger who was in the race since before Cherry’s exit. Which isn’t to say that she’s in a good position at all, as she’s made no headway at fundraising, although apparently that’s changing a little with Cherry out and liberals getting alarmed about a Dillon candidacy. Other candidates predating Cherry’s exit who are still in, but not likely to get anywhere, include MSU trustee (and former MSU football coach) George Perles, who has lots of name rec but is in his mid-70s, and Flint mayor Don Williamson.

Who’s a maybe:

• Bart Stupak, the Rep. from the Upper Peninsula, is probably the best-known “maybe,” and today he’s sounding likelier, saying he’s “strongly considering” the race. Stupak is probably best-known these days for his anti-abortion amendment stinking up the House HCR bill, which again could hurt his standing among liberals in the gube primary (although he’s not on the outs with labor as much as Dillon). There’s a sense, though, this may just be a power play to get more ego-stroking within the House (as he also comments that “A divisive primary would not be good…” for him?). He’s been rather loudly underscoring that DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen has been urging him not to run, and saying “It’s a gone district, if I’m not in there.” (Well, maybe not, as it’s R+3 and dominated by the UP, which has a historically pro-labor bent.)

• Virg Bernero, the populist-sounding mayor of Lansing and a former state Senator, was expected to jump into the race soon after Cherry’s demise, but hasn’t made any sort of official statement yet. Interestingly, Bernero had been floating his name and had opened an exploratory committee several weeks before Cherry’s exit, so it’s a puzzle whether Cherry getting out made him less, rather than more, likely to run… or if he’s just making final arrangements before announcing.

• Denise Ilitch has a famous family name (the Ilitch family owns the Tigers and the Red Wings), and is a University of Michigan regent. She was reportedly meeting with the White House yesterday about a potential bid, indicating she’s pretty serious.

• Dan Kildee, the former Genesee County treasurer, has said he’s interested. He has some name rec from being the nephew of long-time MI-05 Rep. Dale Kildee, but may be biting off more than he can chew here.

• John Bowman, the state’s former Treasurer (and current CEO of mlb.com, baseball’s interactive arm), is suddenly saying today that he’s interested, too. I have no idea if anyone remembers who he is.

Who’s out:

• Debbie Stabenow, the state’s junior Senator, won’t run. Although if she did, she’d been in a good position to hold the seat (if polling from early last year is to be believed).

• David Bonior, the former House Whip, won’t run. The very pro-labor Bonior (who lost the 2002 Dem gubernatorial primary to Jennifer Granholm) could have appealed to both social conservatives and economic liberals.

• Dennis Archer, who managed to retain a lot of popularity despite having had the unenviable job of Detroit mayor, has confirmed that he won’t run.

• Robert Ficano, the Wayne County Executive and former sheriff, has said he won’t run.

• Gary Peters, current MI-09 Rep. and former Lottery Commissioner, will run for another term in the House.

• John Freeman, a former state Rep. (and current Michigan director for HCAN) who has close relations with organized labor, was running even when Cherry was in the race. He just dropped out, though, despite the potential opening for a firebrand to slip through a Dillon/Stupak battle. He, too, cited weak fundraising.

RaceTracker Wiki: MI-Gov

Here’s the big news of the day: following shortly after some prodding on Friday from Barack Obama to run, Denver mayor John Hickenlooper appears to be ready to enter the Colorado Governor’s race for the Democrats.

“Hick is absolutely in,” said a political consultant who asked not to be named because they were not authorized to speak on the mayor’s behalf.

The sources said the announcement could come as early as this afternoon, as Hickenlooper wanted to enter the race before the opening of the Colorado Legislature Wednesday and in deference to Ritter’s State of the State address on Thursday.

The Denver Post’s article also cites Hickenlooper’s desire to “get out in front” of any announcement by former state House speaker Andrew Romanoff that he too might enter the now-open Governor’s race. The word yesterday was that Romanoff was “closer” to announcing than Hickenlooper, based on prodding from his own supporters to get out of his going-nowhere Senate primary bid against Michael Bennet. The question remains, now, though, whether Romanoff still gets in now that Hickenlooper got the drop on him… or if, as also rumored, Romanoff angles to get on board as Hickenlooper’s Lt. Governor? (That National Journal article also cites state Treasurer Cary Kennedy as a potential candidate, although that may have been more of a Plan B and doesn’t seem likely with Hickenlooper in now. Interstingly, it also said that Reps. Diana DeGette and Betsy Markey had considered it but were leaning against. The interest by DeGette, a long-time denizen of CO-01, shouldn’t be a surprise, but the interest of freshman Markey is… perhaps, sensing the difficulty of retaining CO-04, she’s casting about for an escape hatch.)

Also, yesterday, Democratic Rep. Ed Perlmutter said he wouldn’t run for Governor (perhaps he got a whiff of what was coming down the pike), and would stand for re-election in CO-07. On the GOP side in the 7th, things are definitely getting interesting in the primary between Aurora city councilor Ryan Frazier and former McCain campaign official Lang Sias. Frazier’s drop-down to CO-07 had initially seemed good for the GOP, but Sias (who has a lot of establishment backing) seemed to shake up the field. Now, Frazier’s wheeling out a big establishment endorsement of his own, from Virginia’s Rep. Eric Cantor.

UPDATE: Colorado’s GOP chair Dick Wadhams has already taken to calling Hickenlooper “Hickenritter” to handcuff him to the unpopular outgoing governor, but ColoradoPols has some nice quotes from Wadhams himself and ex-Rep. Bob Beauprez in which they publicly worried about Hickenlooper’s likely electoral dominance when it looked like he’d get appointed to the Senate vacancy that instead went to Bennet. Said Beauprez:

I’m guessing John Hickenlooper has name ID that rivals the governor’s, maybe exceeds the governor’s. I’m guessing that John Hickenlooper has 4:1 favorable/unfavorables statewide. There isn’t enough money in the world to peel that down to 1:1 – to where you could maybe beat him.

RaceTracker Wiki: CO-Gov | CO-07

• Redistricting Contest: A reminder – if you haven’t sent in your .DRF.XML file to Jeff, please do so ASAP – jeffmd [at] swingstateproject [dot] com. Please be sure to include your SSP username and a link to your diary. Thanks! (D)

• AR-Sen: Alleged United States Senator Blanche Lincoln is whinging that actually doing her job in December cost her $300,000 in fundraising receipts. This is probably her way of saying her numbers will be lighter than expected this quarter. Why on earth would you go public with this, though? This is not exactly the kind of message you want to communicate to the public – or your opponents. (D)

• CA-Sen: A lot of Republicans seemed dismayed by Carla Fiorina’s suggestions a few months ago that she wasn’t going to be dipping into her personal money in order to fund her Senate bid – I mean, that was the whole point of her running, wasn’t it? At any rate, she’s just reversed course, with her latest finance report, which reveals that she loaned her campaign $2.5 million. Having burned through most of her outside donations, that leaves her with $2.7 million on hand.

• FL-Sen, FL-Gov: Charlie Crist’s message discipline seems to be gotten completely unglued, as he searches for the just-right pitch that’s moderate enough and yet conservative enough. Today, he’s acknowledging support for the stimulus package and “being nice” to Barack Obama, and not apologizing for either one. Meanwhile, there’s still that persistent rumor out there involving Crist bailing on the Senate race and going back to another term as Governor. That’s not happening if GOP AG Bill McCollum has anything to say about it; he says he won’t stand down for Crist.

• MA-Sen: Everyone’s still milling around waiting for that rumored close Boston Herald poll, but in the meantime, a new Democratic internal poll floated to the surface this morning, and it seems to give some credence to that Boston Globe/UNH poll that gave a solid 15-point margin to Democratic AG Martha Coakley. The internal, conducted by Mark Mellman’s firm, gives Coakley a 50-36 lead over Republican state Sen. Scott Brown, with Libertarian candidate Joe Kennedy (no relation to the Kennedy clan) pulling in a surprisingly-high 6 (which may be coming out of Brown’s share). If Brown has internals showing the race a dead heat like he claims, now would be the time for him to lay them on the table. Also today comes word that Barack Obama has no plans to campaign for Coakley, although I don’t know whether to interpret that as a sign of Democratic confidence, or of Obama not wanting to risk political capital on something that’s less than a slam dunk.

• ND-Sen: Gov. John Hoeven had said he needed a few weeks to get some stuff out of the way before saying anything official about the Senate race, but it looks like the stuff was more easily cleared away than anticipated: he’s now expected to announce his candidacy at an appearance at a GOP district convention in Bismarck tonight.  

• NY-Sen-B: Republican Rep. Peter King announced, for something like the third or fourth time, that he is no longer considering running for the Senate, and instead will run for another term in NY-03. Stay tuned for next month, when King will at some point remember that he hasn’t been on cable news for a while and will reveal that he’s considering a run for the Senate. Meanwhile, the political establishment is continuing to take seriously the possibility of a Harold Ford Jr. primary challenge to Kirsten Gillibrand, going all the way up to the White House, which today confirmed that it will back Gillibrand over Ford. Ford, meanwhile, is doing some serious remodeling of his image to better comport with New York codes: he’s now done a complete 180 on gay marriage, which he’s now for, and on abortion, where he claims that when he said he was pro-life, it was to “take back” the term from its right-wing appropriators. Finally, the Republicans will have to look elsewhere than ex-Rep. Susan Molinari for their nominee; after a brief flirtation, Molinari (who’s making big money consulting and probably doesn’t want the pay cut) just declined.

• UT-Sen: This should come as no surprise, but the NRSC, tasked with defending incumbents, confirmed that it’s supporting Bob Bennett in his re-election bid against several right-wing primary challengers. The Club for Growth has painted a bullseye on Bennett’s back, although they haven’t settled on which challenger to support.

• CO-Gov: Denver mayor John Hickenlooper hasn’t leaped as quickly into the Governor’s race (following the withdrawal of Bill Ritter and demurral of Ken Salazar) as many had expected; he’s saying he’ll make a decision within the next five days, so stay tuned. Former House speaker Andrew Romanoff, currently an invisible presence in the Senate primary, has also been consulting with Democratic officials about getting in, although it sounds like he’d do so only if Hickenlooper didn’t. Another rumor getting bandied about: Romanoff joining forces and running as Hickenlooper’s Lt. Gov. candidate; at any rate, it sounds like Romanoff is looking for an exit from the Senate race. Hickenlooper’s decision may get helped along by a certain Barack Obama, who apparently called Hickenlooper to encourage him to get into the race (Hickenlooper says that doesn’t change his decision, though).

• KS-Gov: Kansas Democrats are getting way, way down the totem pole as they look for a gubernatorial candidate, with Tom Wiggans’ recent withdrawal. Board of Regents chair Jill Docking, whose name frequently appears as Democrats’ Plan B in a variety of races, said she won’t run, and now the fickle finger seems to be pointing at Lawrence-area state Sen. Marci Francisco. (H/t Campaign Diaries.)

• MA-Gov: The Boston Globe/UNH poll of the Senate race also asked about 2010’s gubernatorial race, and it’s more confirmation for the apparent trend that Dem incumbent Deval Patrick seems bolstered by the presence of state Treasurer Tim Cahill’s independent bid (despite Patrick’s 39/50 favorables and Cahill’s 39/15). Rather than Cahill dominating the middle, as he may have expected, instead he just winds up splitting the anti-Patrick vote, leaving the race’s GOPers a distant third. A Patrick/Cahill/Charlie Baker ballot plays out 30-23-19, while Patrick/Cahill/Christy Mihos is a similar 32-23-19.

• CA-11: The GOP hasn’t quite found a top-tier candidate to take on Democratic Rep. Jerry McNerney, the only Golden State Dem who’s even remotely vulnerable. But they might get something of an upgrade with the newly-announced candidacy of David Harmer, the Republican attorney who acquitted himself fairly well in the special election last year in much bluer CA-10. He can bring residual name rec and fundraising connections to the race, and one of the race’s lesser lights, former San Jose city councilor Larry Pegram, is already moving to get out of the race. Still, Harmer doesn’t live in the district, and he exposes himself to the same carpetbagging charges he brought to his race against John Garamendi in the 10th.

• CA-19: Kevin McCarthy looks a little flaky after this whole incident: it was reported last Friday that the Bakersfield-area Republican was sticking with his earlier endorsement of state Sen. Jeff Denham in the 19th while admitting a bit of a man-crush on ex-Rep. Richard Pombo. But now the Fresno Bee is reporting that McCarthy has gone all the way, spurned Denham, and is now endorsing Pombo.

• HI-01: The local political establishment weighed in heavily on the side of state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa in the upcoming special election to replace resigning Rep. Neil Abercrombie. The decision of Sen. Daniel Akaka to endorse Hanabusa over his nemesis Ed Case should be no surprise, but this was accompanied by endorsements from the state’s other Senator, Daniel Inouye, and a variety of labor leaders as well. Case does have one endorsement which he’s touting in ads, though, from ex-Governor Ben Cayetano.

• NY-23: Doug Hoffman won’t have the GOP primary field to himself in the 23rd after all. He’ll face a fight with a fellow conservative, albeit more of a team player: Assemblyman Will Barclay, who passed on a run in the special election in the 23rd, says he’s begun exploring the general election race.

• OK-02: Rep. Dan Boren can always be counted on to say something douchey, and today’s no exception. He tells the Tulsa World (in an article titled “Boren: Democrats May Lose Congress”) that Dems are likely to lose seats in Congress, and that’s good news for Oklahoma and especially for him personally. “”In the 112th (Congress), I probably will have the most influence I have ever had, no matter who has the majority,” he says.

• TN-08: It remains to be seen how much of an impact this will have on the race to succeed retiring Dem Rep. John Tanner, but the Republican primary just shrunk by one: computer consultant Donn Janes has announced that he’s going to run instead as a Tea Party-aligned independent. (J)

• Mayors: That Rahm Emanuel-running-for-Chicago-mayor thing seemed to last a whole couple days. Emanuel yesterday praised Richard Daley and backed him for another term starting in 2011.

• Florida: For all the general black clouds hanging over the Democrats regarding 2010, there’s always a lot of nuts-and-bolts numbers that somehow still look favorable, such as party committee fundraising and registration numbers. In Florida, both are actually advantage Team Blue, as the state Democratic party is sitting on $2.6 million cash on hand, $1 million more than state Republicans. Democrats have also built up their registration advantage over Republicans in Florida, to a margin of more than 800,000.

• Tea Partiers: TPM has an interesting look at the civil war growing within the Tea Party movement, a microcosm of the larger civil war within the Republican party. Front and center today is the big teabaggers’ convention in Nashville (with Sarah Palin as keynoter), which is too expensive for many of the teabagging rank and file to attend, leading some to question whether there’s a usurpation of the movement by the Republicans’ Beltway professional class. Meanwhile, Think Progress has some new additions to its ongoing compendium of teabagger primary challenges to establishment GOPers.

Since there’s a spate of dropouts going on, it looks like a prominent Republican decided to get in on the action too. Rep. Jim Gerlach has cut short his bid in the Republican gubernatorial primary, where he’s been lagging AG Tom Corbett by gigantic margins. He cites money woes as the driving concern, though:

[Expenses] left me with two choices: either spend all of my time raising money with little time left for meeting with voters; or withdrawing my candidacy and working even harder to serve the public. I am choosing to serve the public – many of whom have graciously rewarded me with their support for nearly two decades.

The big question mark for Dems is whether Gerlach plans to move back into the PA-06 race, which would probably serve to drop this ever-so-slightly-Dem-leaning tossup back to a GOP-leaning hold. Gerlach may be kicking himself for giving up his seat at all, although in the wake of barely escaping Bob Roggio in 2008, it was probably hard to imagine that he might actually have an easier time of it against better opposition in 2010 thanks to changes in the prevailing winds. However, Gerlach’s spokesperson says he hasn’t ruled anything “in or out” about running in the 6th. For starters, it’s not clear which of the myriad GOPers already running to replace Gerlach would stand down if Gerlach got back in the race.

UPDATE: While it’s not exactly concrete, GOP state Rep. Curt Schroder is indicating that he’s going to stay in the PA-06 race even if Gerlach goes for another term.

RaceTracker Wiki: PA-Gov