Tag: John Kasich

SSP Daily Digest: 10/11 (Afternoon Edition)

• CO-Sen: This probably doesn’t count as an October Surprise since it made a big media impression five years ago, but it’s suddenly popped back into view, and making things dicier for Ken Buck, already on the wrong end of a sizable gender gap in the polls. Buck refused to prosecute a rape case as Weld Co. DA five years ago (despite the police having recommended charges), and the alleged victim is now back in the news. She has a taped recording of their meeting (transcript available at the link) in which he seems to blame the victim and suggest that the case wouldn’t pass muster with a jury.

• FL-Sen: Mason-Dixon (10/4-6, likely voters, 9/20-22 in parens):

Kendrick Meek (D): 21 (23)

Marco Rubio (R): 42 (40)

Charlie Crist (I): 27 (28)

(MoE: ±4%)

With Marco Rubio way ahead, it looks like a Kendrick Meek dropout (rumored on Friday) and a cobbling-together of some sort of Meek/Crist hybrid cyborg would be the only way for the non-Rubio forces to get an advantage in this race. However, Meek’s definitely not acting like a man who’s dropping out, if getting the president of the United States to cut a radio ad for you is any indication.

• WV-Sen: Remember that “hicky” ad that the NRSC ran, and then promptly got apologetic over, once the casting call instructions got leaked? (I know, that was last week, a lifetime ago in politics…) Now it sounds like it just kept running anyway, through last Friday for several days after the story broke, despite promises to take it down.

• NM-Gov: Yep, this is definitely the most over-polled, or at least over-internal-poll-leaked, race around. Today it’s Diane Denish’s turn to retaliate, and she’s out with another poll from one of her apparently two pollsters, Third Eye Strategies, with a 46-46 tie (a little stale, taken 9/21-23). I think we get the general idea, already: Denish sees a tie, Susana Martinez sees a high-single-digits lead for herself, public pollsters see something in between. (UPDATE: That’s odd… we reported this poll several weeks ago. Not sure why it’s back in the news today.)

• CA-47: This is the kind of unity that Loretta Sanchez (last seen alienating her district’s small but politically active Vietnamese community with an ill-advised remark) probably doesn’t like to see: apparently there was a major rift with the Vietnamese Republican community that just got sealed up, as long-time Van Tran rival Janet Nguyen (an Orange County councilor) gave a late-game endorsement to Tran.

• CT-02, CT-03: Merriman River Group hits the quinella in Connecticut, with polls of the two House races in the Nutmeg State that aren’t interesting. In the 2nd, despite getting some touting when she got in the race, GOPer Janet Peckinpaugh is making little impression against Joe Courtney, trailing 55-41. And in the 3rd, Rosa DeLauro is the state’s safest Dem, leading Jerry Labriola 58-37.

• FL-22: Endorsements from primary challengers, especially at this stage in the game, are interesting only when they go to the guy from the other party. But that’s what’s happening in the 22nd, where the guy who lost to Allen West, David Brady, gave his backing to Democratic incumbent Ron Klein today. (So too did several minor-league local elected GOPers, including Palm Beach mayor Jack McDonald.) Says Brady, apparently from the sane wing of the GOP (to the extent that the Palm Beach Post endorsed him in the primary): “I ran against Allen West. I debated him and I can tell you: Allen West is too extreme for this community.”

• MS-04: Dueling polls in the 4th, where everything still averages out to a Democratic lean but unfortunately this is looking like one more real race. GOP state Rep. Steven Palazzo offered a poll a few weeks ago saying incumbent Gene Taylor led by only 4, and now Taylor says, no, he’s leading by 8 (without giving us any other useful information, like the toplines, let alone the pollster or dates). Hmmm, that’s only a difference of four points, so why show your hand, especially in such haphazard fashion? Somehow I don’t think Taylor would be a very good poker player.

• NY-22, NY-25: Bill Clinton showing up in upstate New York to stump on behalf of Dan Maffei, that’s not a surprise, as this race seems to be competitive. But also Maurice Hinchey in the 22nd? We haven’t gotten any smoke signals out of that district before, but that’s an indication that something may bubbling under here. (It’s a D+6 district, and Hinchey barely won in ’94.)

• OH-01: One more unfortunate though unsurprising triage decision to report: Steve Driehaus seems to have run out of time at the DCCC, who are canceling their remaining ad buy in the Cincinnati market for the next two weeks. The deadline for reservations cancellations is coming up soon, so we’ll soon know who else gets the shortest straw drawn for them.

• PA-10: After seeing a incumbent Chris Carney up by single digits in a recent public poll from Lycoming, GOP challenger Tom Marino rummaged around in his poll drawer and pulled out one from the Tarrance Group giving him a 47-42 lead on Carney. (No word from the Fix on the dates, though.)

• TN-04: One last GOP internal to throw into the mix: a POS survey (from 9/27-28) on behalf of Scott DesJarlais shows him tied with Dem incumbent Lincoln Davis, 42-42. We haven’t seen any public polling of this race (and may not, as the NRCC doesn’t seem to be pushing this one hard, maybe on the off chance that it’s the kind of district that’ll flip in a wave regardless of what they do), but Davis claimed an 11-point lead in a late August internal.

• House: If you’re thinking that it seems like there are a lot more races in the “Tossup” and “Lean” categories this year, you’re not alone. Nate Silver quantifies various ways in which there are way more competitive races this year than in other recent cycles, including number of races where there are polls within single-digits, where there are polls period, and where there are major financial contributions.

• Redistricting: This is an interesting, if counterintuitive, piece from HuffPo on redistricting, which proposes that we’ll be in better shape in 2010 redistricting than 2000 redistricting because (based on projected gubernatorial and state legislative outcomes) we’ll have more control over the process in more important states: oddly he leaves out California, but also including Florida, Illinois, Michigan, and Virginia (all states where there was a GOP trifecta last time), and Minnesota and New York (where we might get the trifecta this time)… while the states where the GOP will improve its position aren’t as large (Alabama, Indiana, Tennessee… with Georgia the most significant one). The article also gets into the nitty-gritty of where the population growth within the fast-growing states has occurred (i.e. among minorities).

• Polltopia: You might have noticed that Political Wire briefly had some Senate polls up today from somebody I’ve never heard of before, called “TCJ Research.” Those polls mysteriously vanished after Nate Silver, vanquisher of bogus pollsters, showed up on the scene with a simple tweet:

A WordPress blog getting ~500 hits a day on posts like “October Giveaway: 32 Gigabyte Apple iPad!” suddenly commissions 5 polls? Not likely.

• SSP TV:

• IL-Sen: Two different ads from the DSCC attacking Mark Kirk, hitting him for his House voting record and also revisiting Kirk’s misrememberment of his military record

• NC-Sen: Elaine Marshall’s finally out with a TV spot, going after Richard Burr for helping to break the economy

• WV-Sen: While John Raese nods to the ‘hick’ ad semi-apologetically before changing the subject back to Washington Dems, Joe Manchin seems to be trying to out-hick the hick ad by touting his pro-gun and anti-environment credentials in one fell swoop by (I kid you not) shooting a copy of the cap-and-trade bill

• IL-Gov: The most famous Illinoisian, Barack Obama, cuts a radio spot on behalf of Pat Quinn

• RI-Gov: The DGA pounds Lincoln Chafee one more time from the right, accusing him of being a tax-hiking hippy

• FL-22: Ron Klein moves past the boring fixation on Allen West’s tax liens and onto the really juicy stuff about 2nd Amendment remedies

• MN-06: Taryl Clark hits Michele Bachmann on Social Security

• PA-03: Kathy Dahlkemper touts her pro-life credentials in her new ad, explaining her siding with the Stupak bloc on health care reform

• VA-02: The DCCC’s IE unit points the “hypocrite” arrow at Scott Rigell, for making hundreds of thousands of dollars off “Cash for Clunkers”

• WI-08: Ditto the DCCC ad in the 8th, where they hit Reid Ribble for making hundreds of thousands of dollars for his roofing business off stimulus projects

• Rasmussen:

• CT-Gov: Dan Malloy (D) 49%, Tom Foley (R) 44%

• FL-Gov: Alex Sink (D) 47%, Rick Scott (R) 50%

• FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek (D) 19%, Marco Rubio (R) 50%, Charlie Crist (I) 25%

• GA-Gov: Roy Barnes (D) 41%, Nathan Deal (R) 50%

• GA-Sen: Michael Thurmond (D) 38%, Johnny Isakson (R-inc) 53%

• MN-Gov: Mark Dayton (D) 40%, Tom Emmer (R) 38%, Tom Horner (I) 15%

• NE-Gov: Mike Meister (D) 24%, Dave Heineman (R-inc) 66%

• NH-Sen: Paul Hodes (D) 44%, Kelly Ayotte (R) 51%

• NM-Gov: Diane Denish (D) 43%, Susana Martinez (R) 52%

• NV-Gov: Rory Reid (D) 40%, Brian Sandoval (R) 53%

• OR-Gov: John Kitzhaber (D) 48%, Chris Dudley (R) 46%

• SD-Gov: Scott Heidepriem (D) 33%, Dennis Daugaard (R) 57%

• TX-Gov: Bill White (D) 42%, Rick Perry (R-inc) 53%

• WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D-inc) 46%, Dino Rossi (R) 49%

• Angus-Reid: Some of you might have gotten excited about the California numbers offered up today by Angus-Reid (a well-established Canadian pollster, but apparently making their first foray into the States). Well, don’t, because they’re using an RV model, and more importantly, it’s an Internet sample. (Now presumably there’s some scientific selection behind it, not just a “click here!” banner ad, but we’re highly skeptical nonetheless, especially since that seemed to produce notably pro-Dem results in California.)

• CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 53%, Meg Whitman (R) 41%

• CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 55%, Carly Fiorina (R) 39%

• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 46%, John Kasich (R) 48%

• OH-Sen: Lee Fisher (D) 42%, Rob Portman (R) 53%

SSP Daily Digest: 10/7 (Morning Edition)

  • IL-Sen: My god, Mark Kirk is an asshole. The excellent ArchPundit catches Kirk bragging about funding “the largest voter protection” operation in 15 years in “key vulnerable precincts” where “the other side might be tempted to jigger the numbers somewhat.” And pray tell which precincts are those? Says Kirk: “South and West Side of Chicago, Metro East, Rockford.” Those aren’t just Dem strongholds – they happen to be the places where almost all of the African Americans in Illinois live. What a fucker. “Jigger,” huh.
  • KY-Sen: Clinton Alert! The Big Dog is coming to Kentucky to campaign for Jack Conway on Monday.
  • OH-Sen: Quinnipiac (9/29-10/3, likely voters, 9/9-14 in parens):

    • Lee Fisher (D): 36 (35)

    Rob Portman (R): 55 (55)

    Undecided: 8 (9)

    (MoE: ±3.1%)

  • OH-Gov: Quinnipiac (9/29-10/3, likely voters, 9/9-14 in parens):

    • Ted Strickland (D-inc): 41 (37)

    John Kasich (R): 50 (54)

    Undecided: 7 (7)

    (MoE: ±3.1%)

  • IL-Gov: Biden alert! The VPOTUS is joining Gov. Pat Quinn for a rally in Chicago on October 12th at the Chicago Journeymen Plumbers Local 130 Hall.
  • NY-Gov: Carl Paladino, international man of mystery? The noted scuzzball is apparently buying time on all the networks for 5 p.m. today to make a “major announcement.” Sounds pretty stunty to me.
  • SC-Gov (PDF): Hamilton Campaigns (D) for Vincent Sheheen (10/1-4, likely voters, 9/24-28 in parens):

    • Vincent Sheheen (D): 44 (41)

    Nikki Haley (R): 49 (51)

    Undecided: 7 (8)

    (MoE: ±4.4%)

  • CO-03: Morans.
  • IL-14: A Randy Hultgren internal from the Tarrance Group shows him leading Dem Rep. Bill Foster 44-38, with 4 points going to Green Party candidate Daniel Kairis.
  • MD-01: Clinton Alert 2.0! The Big Dog is holding a fundraiser in Washington, D.C. this Sunday for Rep. Frank Kratovil. Man, after all the work he’s done this cycle, I hope Clinton has a phat vacation planned for after election day.
  • SC-02: Rob Miller says he won’t vote to retain Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House. He also said that he plans to draft Joe DiMaggio in his fantasy baseball league next year and that he’s getting his wife a jetpack for Christmas.

    • Fundraising:

    • FL-Sen: Marco Rubio, $5 million raised (a new record)
    • NRCC: Securing a $6.5 million loan

    SSP TV:

    • MA-Gov: Deval Patrick hits Charlie Baker for raising premiums as a healthcare CEO (while noting that he capped them as governor)
    • FL-Gov: Rick Scott tries to paint Alex Sink as a hypocrite on various financial goings-on during her tenure as state CFO
    • FL-08: A new spot from Alan Grayson hits Webster on women’s issues
    • MA-04: Republican Sean Bielat is out with two ads (apparently cable only): the first attacks Barney Frank on the bailout (and features someone calling Bielat “a reasonable guy” – such praise!); the second is basically the same low production values, faux man-on-the-street shtick, and also has a dude saying, “If you don’t like the new guy, get rid of him in two years!”

    Independent Expenditures:

    SSP Daily Digest: 10/6 (Afternoon Edition)

    • CA-Gov: Another few weeks go by, and Meg Whitman keeps smashing the barriers on over-the-top self-funding: she’s spent $140 million out of pocket over the entire cycle now. Here’s the number that’s gotta suck for her, though: Jerry Brown, having spent all of $10 million so far this cycle, is sitting on $22 million in reserves for the remaining month, allowing him to compete on perhaps an even financial footing for the last month. Whitman’s cash reserves are $9 million, but even if she cuts herself the biggest check of all to re-up, there’s only a finite amount of TV time left for her to buy. Truly the story of the ant and the grasshopper.

    • NM-Gov: The Diane Denish camp keeps up the onslaught of internal polls showing her behind but within arm’s length of Susana Martinez. This time, the poll is from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, and gives Martinez a 49-46 lead. That still feels kind of “meh” to me, but there’s an interesting kernel in the fine print: Martinez has fallen into net negative favorables for the first time (39/42, down from 42/31 in August), suggesting the ad war is having its effect.

    • OH-Gov: I’m going to wait until I start seeing these kind of numbers in public polls before I start getting too optimistic about whether Ted Strickland’s comeback really has legs, but here’s another strong internal from his camp. The Feldman Group poll taken 10/3-5 gives Strickland a 46-42 lead over John Kasich, and finds Strickland with 47/40 favorables.

    • CA-03: Ami Bera continues to be a fundraising force among Democratic challengers (not that he has much high-profile competition on that front); he raised $550K in 3Q, and $2.1 million raised over the cycle. He beat incumbent Dan Lungren yet again, who raised $480K for a $1.7 mil total.

    • FL-02: We still haven’t seen any public polling of this race, but here’s a second GOP poll for challenger Steve Southerland giving him a double digit lead over Allen Boyd (the first one was an NRCC poll from the Tarrance Group way back in May, giving Southerland a 52-37 lead). This one’s from National Research (presumably on Southerland’s behalf?), taken 9/29-30, giving Southerland a 46-30 lead.

    • VA-05: The US Chamber of Commerce gave its backing to Robert Hurt, not much of a surprise as he’s the kind of non-threatening establishment conservative that wing of the GOP tends to like. Tom Perriello picked that up and is using it as a cudgel that seems to combine various elements that have apparently polled well for Dems (outsourcing and Citizens United), saying that the endorsement means “foreign money” is pouring into the race now, citing companies in Bahrain, Russia, and China that give money to the US Chamber.

    • DCCC: Here’s some more detail on the various ways in which the DCCC is, um, advancing in other directions (we told you about their pullout in AZ-08 last night, which probably has to do with Gabby Giffords having enough money to pull her own weight). They’ve also reduced buys for one week in a few other districts: a mix of ones where they seem genuinely hosed (CO-04, TX-17, FL-24, and the KS-03 and IN-08 open seats), one that seems a true tossup but where our guy has money (Harry Teague in NM-02), and one that’s looking like a pickup (LA-02). The DCCC will be using at least some of that money putting out a new brushfire that popped up in NY-23, where Doug Hoffman’s ceasing and desisting makes the race a tossup, and where they’re spending $500K.

    • NRCC: Speaking of CO-04 and being hosed, here’s some additional evidence: the NRCC is taking $700K out of the 4th, and moving it next door to another race that’s looking decidedly tossup-ish: John Salazar’s CO-03.

    • Redistricting: This may be the single best use of money anywhere by Dems this cycle: they’re finally putting some money into Florida’s redistricting amendments that purport to make the process less subject to gerrymandering. Over $1 million has flowed from Democratic groups to Fair Districts Florida, who are behind the measures. Fair Districts is ostensibly nonpartisan, but obviously the net effect of a less partisan map would be to dismantle one of the most effective Republican gerrymanders anywhere.

    • Polltopia: With dramatically different results (especially in the generic ballot tests, but also in head-to-head polls) popping up that often seem to have very different definitions of “likely voter,” Mark Blumenthal looks at the various ways pollsters cobble together their LV models. There’s a marked difference between the way academic pollsters and partisan pollsters do it, revealing major disparities. If you haven’t seen it already, this should be required reading.

    • Independent expenditures: The folks at Zata|3 have put together a very useful table, adding up and comparing DCCC and NRCC independent expenditures in all the districts where they’ve weighed in. (The NRCC has spent a lot more so far, despite their cash shortfall vs. the DCCC. The D-Trip seems to be saving up for a massive blast in the final weeks. Or maybe just saving up for 2012.) They also have charts for the DCCC and NRCC that break down each district’s expenditures by category (media buys, production, internet, etc.).

    • SSP TV:

    • CO-Sen: The DSCC hits Ken Buck for his enthusiasm for privatizing everything he can get his hands on

    • CT-Sen: The Chamber of Commerce has a fairly boilerplate ad against Richard Blumenthal for being too anti-(big) business

    • KY-Sen: There are six different ads embedded in this Inquirer article, several of which you’ve already seen (including the DSCC ad on Medicare deductibles), but including a new Rand Paul campaign ad on the “Conway = Obama” theme; separately, the NRSC has a new ad here on Conway waffling on extending Bush tax cuts

    • MO-Sen: The DSCC has yet another ad about Roy Blunt and his lobbyist friends

    • NY-Sen-B: Kirsten Gillibrand’s out with a second bio ad that seems specifically aimed at the upstate market, pointing out her roots in that part of the state

    • PA-Sen: Joe Sestak’s new ad points to what we junkies have long known, that Pat Toomey’s free market fundamentalism has given him aggregator ratings even more conservative than Rick Santorum

    • WI-Sen: A second cookie-cutter ad from the Chamber of Commerce, this one targeting Russ Feingold

    • KS-Gov: Tom Holland’s out with his first ad of the cycle, a comparison spot that’s half negative against Sam Brownback, half positive intro of Holland

    • TX-Gov: Bill White’s newest ad rebuts some of Rick Perry’s claims about his mayoral leadership and lists his various commendations

    • AZ-05: The National Education Association gets into the ad war in a big way, hitting David Schweikert for being anti-public education (this buy is part of a $15 million initiative on the NEA’s part, also including TV in OH-13 and mailers in NC-08)

    • CO-04: EMILY’s List is still sticking around in the 4th, bolstering Betsy Markey with an anti-Cory Gardener spot that’s a mother of a child with autism addressing Gardener not wanting to require insurers to cover that

    • Rasmussen:

    • AZ-Gov: Terry Goddard (D) 39%, Jan Brewer (R-inc) 55%

    • CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 54%, Linda McMahon (R) 43%

    • IL-Gov: Pat Quinn (D-inc) 38%, Bill Brady (R) 46%, Rich Whitney (G) 4%

    • IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 41%, Mark Kirk (R) 45%, LeAlan Jones (G) 4%

    • MD-Gov: Martin O’Malley (D-inc) 49%, Bob Ehrlich (R) 41%

    • RI-Gov: Frank Caprio (D) 30%, John Robitaille (R) 22%, Lincoln Chafee (I) 33%

    • WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D) 44%, John Raese (R) 50%

    SSP Daily Digest: 10/5 (Afternoon Edition)

    • AK-Sen: It’s never a dull moment with Joe Miller in the race. Hot on the heels of the news that he believes that federal unemployment insurance is unconstitutional, today comes the news that his wife went on unemployment after leaving a job in 2004, and that Miller did not disown his wife for betraying the Founding Fathers. But wait, it just gets more interesting: the job Miller’s wife left was working for… Miller himself. He hired his wife as a part-time clerk when he was working for several years as a magistrate judge for the federal district court (y’know, for the federal government he just hates so much). Local gadfly (and Lisa Murkowski ally) Andrew Halcro is, in fact, suggesting that Miller was forced to fire his wife because the blatant nepotism may have been a violation of court policies. (Of course, Miller’s response was that Murkowski’s not one to talk about nepotism.)

    And on top of that, now it’s come out that Miller is a full-on Seventeenther. In other words, part of the new crop of right-wingers who want you to vote for him so he can take away your rights to vote for him in the future.

    • HI-Sen: Term-limited GOP Gov. Linda Lingle is saying she’ll “take a look” at a Senate bid in 2012. That seat’s current occupant, Dan Akaka, is 86 years old, so it’s not clear whether he’ll run for another term or not. Lingle is probably the only Republican on the bench in Hawaii with enough juice to make a Senate race, especially an open seat one, competitive.

    • IL-Sen, IL-Gov: Mark Kirk is out with an internal poll (from Fulcrum), giving him a much larger lead than, well, anyone else, considering that most pollsters have seen this within a point or two either way. His poll says he leads Alexi Giannoulias 42-33, with 2 for the Green Party’s LeAlan Jones. (The same poll also shows Bill Brady leading Pat Quinn 39-27 in the Governor’s race.) Sitting on a big cash advantage, Kirk has reserved most of his entire kitty ($5.2 million) on ad buys for the remaining month.

    • WI-Sen: Russ Feingold seems determined to follow Nancy Boyda down the path of integrity/obscurity. He’s telling the DSCC (who haven’t advertised yet on his behalf) to back off and let him fight the election himself. Says Feingold: “I consider it to be outside help of a kind that is uncontrolled and tends to believe in a philosophy of slash-and-burn politics. That’s frankly not who I am. I don’t want to win that way.”

    • NH-Gov: Univ. of New Hampshire (9/23-29, likely voters, July in parentheses):

    John Lynch (D-inc): 51 (54)

    John Stephen (R): 34 (29)

    (MoE: ±4.3%)

    Considering that UNH’s sample had Paul Hodes down by 15 and Carol Shea-Porter losing too, it’s pleasantly surprising to see John Lynch hanging in there with little trouble (in contrast to several other recent polls, such as UNH’s in-state rival for weird results, ARG).

    • WV-Gov: I guess the 2010 election is over already? Because the conversation today already seems to be changing to 2012. Republican state Sen. Clark Barnes (whom you might remember for briefly getting in and then getting out of the field in WV-01 last year) says he’ll run for governor two years from now.

    • NY-20: Finding himself on the very wrong end of both a Siena poll and a Scott Murphy internal, Chris Gibson offers up a POS internal of his own, taken 9/27-28, showing that he’s still within striking distance. He says he trails Murphy 42-38.

    • VA-05: Here’s one more Dem poll from the 5th that shows Tom Perriello is narrowly trailing, but not officially dead yet. Rob Hurt leads Perriello 44-43 in a poll sponsored by the League of Conservation Voters and the SEIU (no word on who the pollster is, though). (UPDATE: The pollster is David Dougherty, and the memo is here. The sample was taken 9/20-23 with a 4.4% MoE.)

    • American Crossroads: Remember back when we all laughed at American Crossroads for not raising any money, apparently because they were waiting for the million-dollar checks from their half-a-dozen billionaire donors to clear? Ha ha, boy, those were simpler times. Anyway, Democracy 21 and the Campaign Legal Center are going to the IRS to ask for an investigation of Crossroads GPS, one tentacle of the group that’s organized as a non-profit “social welfare organization” or 501(c)(4). The larger Crossroads is a PAC, but GPS itself isn’t supposed to participate in campaigns. Rather than take it up with the FEC, which has fallen into chaotic uselessness because of empty seats on the commission, they’re going straight to the IRS, alleging tax law violations instead.

    • Fundraising:

    • MO-Sen: Roy Blunt raised $2 million in 3Q, no CoH given

    • PA-07: Pat Meehan raised $725K, giving him $1.5 million CoH

    • SSP TV:

    • AK-Sen: Two different ads, one a coordinated spot between the Joe Miller camp and the NRSC that’s a bio spot for Miller, the other a Tea Party Express one-minute extravaganza that calls Lisa Murkowski a liar, a fraud, and various other things

    • IN-Sen: Here’s a link to that Brad Ellsworth ad we mentioned yesterday, where he literally calls Dan Coats a sellout over that all-covers album he released outsourcing

    • KY-Sen: The DSCC rolls out an ad hitting Rand Paul on his proposed $2,000 Medicare deductible, while Paul’s newest ad returns to the Jack Conway=Obama theme

    • MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan goes back to the theme of Roy Blunt’s cozy DC insider relationships

    • NY-Sen-B: Joe DioGuardi’s first ad is an intro spot, as well as bemoaning the dwindling American Dream

    • WA-Sen: The DSCC revisits Dino Rossi’s days as a state Senator, including support for cutting unemployment benefits and the minimum wage

    • WI-Sen: Russ Feingold takes the GOP to task for prematurely celebrating short of the end zone

    • WV-Sen: John Raese follows the NRSC’s lead with his own ad doing the Joe Manchin=Obama thing

    • FL-Gov: The DGA’s out with a Florida ad with various law enforcement officials bashing Rick Scott’s Medicare fraud

    • NH-Gov: Here’s the ad of the day: John Lynch leaps out of the gate and punches John Stephen in the nose over scandals at New Hampshire’s HHS Dept.

    • OH-Gov: Ted Strickland, bedecked in camo, reminds the state’s hunters who got the NRA’s backing

    • PA-Gov: Well, at least Tom Corbett isn’t saying Dan Onorato = Obama, but he is saying Onorato = Ed Rendell

    • RI-Gov: The DGA hits Lincoln Chafee from the right? Their new ad says that vulnerable Rhode Islanders can’t afford all the new taxes Chafee wants

    • FL-24: Suzanne Kosmas hits Sandy Adams over the Paul Ryan roadmap

    • PA-04: Oh, good… more kids complaining about how their allowance isn’t big enough to cover all the debt they’re going to have to pay off, courtesy of Keith Rothfus

    • Rasmussen:

    • AZ-Sen: Rodney Glassman (D) 33%, John McCain (R-inc) 54%

    • CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 49%, Carly Fiorina (R) 45%

    • CO-Gov: John Hickenlooper (D) 43%, Dan Maes (R) 16%, Tom Tancredo (C) 35%

    • CO-Sen: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 45%, Ken Buck (R) 50%

    • Rasmussen (appearing as Fox/Pulse):

    • CT-Gov: Dan Malloy (D) 47%, Tom Foley (R) 41%

    • CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 52%, Linda McMahon (R) 42%

    • MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan (D) 42%, Roy Blunt (R) 50%

    • NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 46%, Sharron Angle (R) 49%

    • OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 43%, John Kasich (R) 49%

    • OH-Sen: Lee Fisher (D) 37%, Rob Portman (R) 53%

    • WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D) 43%, John Raese (R) 48%

    SSP Daily Digest: 10/4 (Afternoon Edition)

    • CT-Sen: Remember how Linda McMahon was touting how the WWE dialed things back to “PG-rated” entertainment this decade? That didn’t seem to take into account some corporate synergy between WWE and the Girls Gone Wild empire, who collaborated on a 2003 pay-per-view. My Left Nutmeg has the rundown on GGW’s greatest legal hits, and also some compare and contrast with WWE’s own most luridly misogynist moments from its pre-PG days.

    • IN-Sen: Brad Ellsworth, after a few weeks in the dark, is going back on the air with an ad hitting Dan Coats on outsourcing, including his lobbying ties to job-shippers and his own NAFTA vote in the early 90s. However, it looks like this ad is coming out of the Ellsworth campaign coffers, as the DSCC (contrary to a brief flurry of reports) still doesn’t seem to be buying any time here.

    • MD-Sen: Washington Post (9/22-26, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Barbara Mikulski (D): 61

    Eric Wargotz (R): 29

    (MoE: ±3.5%)

    Here’s the Senate half of WaPo’s last Maryland poll, with Barbara Mikulski looking like she might match the 65% she got in her 2004 re-election. Her lead is 59-24 among RVs, so Maryland, like many solidly blue states, has less of an enthusiasm gap problem than the swing states. Her opponent’s problem is, naturally, name rec: he has 10/9 favorables, with 81% with no opinion.

    • NV-Sen: Sharron Angle will be in Washington DC tomorrow, fundraising at the NRSC headquarters at a minimum-$500 event replete with many lobbyists and ex-Senators. If that causes a little head-spinning cognitive dissonance for you — in the wake of revelations of her inexplicably tape-recorded summit with Tea Party candidate Scott Ashjian in which they both agree that the GOP has been corrupt since, oh, at least 1994 — well, then, clearly you’re not a Republican.

    • CA-Gov: While Meg Whitman and Jerry Brown have actually gotten down to some debating lately, tomorrow’s planned debate is suddenly off… and without any explanation it’s by mutual agreement, not purely a Whitman pullout (while she retrenches in the wake of her illegal employment arrangement with her housekeeper). If you’re wondering what the first poll of the race taken since the story broke looks like and whether it’s hurting Whitman, well, there’s a box called “Rasmussen” down at the bottom of the digest…

    • CO-Gov: Here’s a little more info on what happens to the Colorado GOP if Dan Maes doesn’t reach 10% in the gubernatorial race. You probably know they get stuck in “minor party” status, which affects their ballot position in both 2012 and 2014. But (this is new, at least to me) it also has major fundraising ramifications for state legislative candidates in those cycles, halving what they can raise from individual donors.

    • MA-Gov: Tim Cahill, whose right-leaning indie campaign lost its wheels months ago and last week seems to have lost most of its chassis as well too, still plans to go on the air with $1 million worth of attack ads (his only ads so far have been positive, which may explain why he’s polling in the single digits). And here’s the good news… he’s going after Republican Charlie Baker. If he were to join Baker in training his guns only on Deval Patrick, that could be a problem, but he won’t. (Makes me wonder if he was a Patrick plant all along? Probably not, but it’d be one of the greatest stories in the history of ratfucking if true.)

    • NY-Gov: Now here’s one big financial disparity, at least on paper. Andrew Cuomo’s warchest, as of required reports last week, is more than $19 million CoH. That contrasts sharply with Carl Paladino’s $209K. Of course, Paladino can write his own checks, and has promised to spend up to $10 million of his own money if necessary. (Even if he did, that’d still be a 2:1 disadvantage, with little likelihood of ‘recouping’ that money in the form of a win, so don’t count on it.) Cuomo spent almost $3 million on TV ads in the last few weeks, so he’s leaving nothing to chance.

    • AL-02: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for DCCC (9/26-28, likely voters, 8/23-26 in parentheses):

    Bobby Bright (D-inc): 52 (52)

    Martha Roby (R): 43 (43)

    (MoE: ±4.9%)

    Not a typo. The numbers seem to have stayed exactly the same over the last month, since GQR’s previous internal on behalf of Bobby Bright. In this climate, consistency is good.

    • IA-01: If, like me, you’ve been wondering why AFF is pouring $800K into the race against Bruce Braley in the 1st, which no observer has taken much interest in or seen any smoke coming from, well, now you have an answer: Sandy Grenier is the head of AFF. She’s also running for state Senate in her spare time… in Iowa. In other words, she’s pouring money into a race that’s her own personal hobby horse, at the expense of other races that are actually competitive. (And that’s not even the main point of the article… it turns out that Grenier, like so many other members of the current wave of GOP candidates, is a big believer in sucker-punching the government with one hand even as you take money from it with the other. Her family has received over $935K in farm subsidies over the last 15 years.)

    • NY-20: Grove Insight for DCCC (9/28-30, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Scott Murphy (D-inc): 51

    Chris Gibson (R): 38

    (MoE: ±4.9%)

    We haven’t seen an internal in this district until now. While the numbers are nice, this actually isn’t as good as Siena’s poll of the district mid-September, which put Murphy up 54-37.

    • WV-03: Anzalone Liszt for Nick Rahall (9/27-29, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Nick Rahall (D-inc): 59

    Spike Maynard (R): 34

    (MoE: ±4.5%)

    With the DCCC out with a poll a couple weeks ago giving Rahall a 55-37 lead (and even that round of AFF polls showing him up by 16), I think it may be time to stop discussing this race as competitive. What’s most remarkable here is that the Dems manage to have a 47-37 edge on the generic ballot question, and Maynard (a controversial ex-state Supreme Court justice) still manages to underperform that low bar.

    • DCCC: Now who’s copping out on their DCCC dues payments? CQ finds that the Congressional Hispanic Caucus has been particularly remiss on making its payments, with only junior leadership member Xavier Becerra having paid all his dues as of the Aug. 24 tally. (Two more, including CHC chair Nydia Velazquez, report having paid up since then.) Some members cite failure to move immigration reform as a reason for holding out and giving directly to cooperative individual Reps instead.

    • AL-St. Sen.: Despite having a 25-10 20-15 Democratic edge in the Alabama state Senate, many observers are thinking it’s high on the list of legislative chambers that could flip this year, given a perfect storm of local and national dynamics. And this isn’t going to help: 4 different members of the 35-person body got snared in a federal probe of a bingo operation. One is a retiring Republican, but the others are a Dem running in a tossup seat, a Dem running in a safe seat, and an independent running for re-election who was expected to caucus with Dems next session (Harri Anne Smith, whom you might remember from the AL-02 2008 GOP primary). This scandal looks like it’ll drive the legislative race conversation in the state for the remaining weeks.

    • NY-St. Sen.: There are four more polls from Siena of state Senate races in New York, showing two pretty safe incumbents (one from each party) but two open seats in true tossup territory. The safe-ish incumbents are Dem David Valesky in SD-40 (beating Andrew Russo 50-40) and GOPer James Alesi in SD-55 (beating Mary Wilmot 55-35). The other two races seem close mostly because of their screwy circumstances. In the Hudson Valley’s GOP-held SD-40, GOPer Greg Ball (an inflammatory teabagger out of step with a district more amenable to moderate GOPers) leads Dem Michael Kaplowitz 45-44. And in Buffalo-area Dem-held SD-58, GOPer Jack Quinn (not the ex-Rep., but a relative) leads at 42, but that’s because Tim Kennedy (on the Dem and Con lines) is at 39 and William Stachowski (whom Kennedy beat in the Dem primary) is at 12 on the WFP and IP lines.

    • State legislatures: At SSP, we’re always about finding ways for you to maximize the leverage you get out of your political contributions, and there’s no better way to do that than through giving at the state legislative level, where a little money can go a long way (especially a lot of vulnerable chambers and redistricting looming.) The DLCC is out with its second list of Essential races, in the contests they consider important ones in the quest to hold important legislative chambers.

    One other resource you should check out is the “Win Big By Thinking Small” ActBlue page, courtesy of Progressive Kick. They have 18 different progressives in important state legislative races all in one place. (One name you might remember is Patsy Keever, who ran in NC-11 in 2004.)

    • SSP TV:

    • CT-Sen: The DSCC is out with an ad simply called “Bad” focusing on Linda McMahon as bad CEO of WWE; meanwhile, the McMahon camp is out with an ad calling Richard Blumenthal a liar for the nth time over his Vietnam service

    • MD-Sen: Barbara Mikulski seems to have an easy race, but is still hitting the airwaves touting her education record

    • OH-Gov: John Kasich says that 400,000 Ohio jobs were lost under Ted Strickland’s watch (without, of course, guessing at how many of those job losses were proximally related to the devastation of the credit market in the wake of the collapse of Lehman Brothers)

    • CA-03: Ami Bera hits Dan Lungren for using ethical loopholes to party with lobbyists in Hawaii

    • FL-12: Faced with a state Rep. opponent, Dem Lori Edwards tries running against Tallahassee instead of Washington (and against big insurance, while she’s at it), in what’s definitely today’s most cut-through-the-clutter ad

    • PA-11: Paul Kanjorski keeps going to the well of how bad a mayor of Hazleton Lou Barletta was

    • NRCC: The NRCC is out with freakin’ 27 different ads today… you can see the full list at their blog, and even watch them if you have 13½ minutes of your life you don’t want to get back

    • Rasmussen:

    • AR-Gov: Mike Beebe (D-inc) 51%, Jim Keet (R) 41%

    • AR-Sen: Blanche Lincoln (D-inc) 37%, John Boozman (R) 55%

    • CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 49%, Meg Whitman (R) 44%

    • NM-Gov: Diane Denish (D) 41%, Susana Martinez (R) 51%

    • PA-Gov: Dan Onorato (D) 41%, Tom Corbett (R) 53%

    • WY-Gov: Leslie Peterson (D) 25%, Matt Mead (R) 61%

    SSP Daily Digest: 9/30 (Afternoon Edition)

    • CA-Sen: PPIC (9/19-26, likely voters, 7/6-20 in parentheses):

    Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 42 (49)

    Carly Fiorina (R): 35 (40)

    Other: 6 (-)

    Undecided: 17 (11)

    (MoE: ±3.6%)

    One more poll for the pile with a high-single-digits lead for Barbara Boxer, this time from the very trustworthy PPIC. They also look at the Governor’s race (see below) and a few initiatives: they find Prop 19 (pot) passing 52-41 and Prop 25 (simple majority budget) passing 48-35, but also finding Prop 23 (suspending greenhouse gas limits) passing 43-42.

    • IN-Sen: We’d speculated that this was a possibility back around the time of the Indiana GOP primary, when Dan Coats (an unusually tepid gun supporter as far as GOPers go) won. The NRA today endorsed his Democratic opponent, Brad Ellsworth, who’s pretty much walked the pro-gun line in his red House district. (I know we’d said we’d shut up about NRA endorsements of conservaDems, but this one actually has the potential to move some votes in a key race.)

    • PA-Sen: Susquehanna for Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (9/23-26, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Joe Sestak (D): 42

    Pat Toomey (R): 45

    (MoE: ±3.5%)

    I wish this had come out in time for our monstrous Pennsylvania wrapup from early this morning, as it’s an interesting post-script. Susquehanna (a Republican pollster, but one who’ve demonstrated that they know what they’re doing in Pennsylvania; for instance, they got the PA-12 special pretty close to right) sees it as a surprisingly close race, finding Sestak within 3. Is this the first sign of Sestak closing, or is this just the optimistic edge of the stable mid-single-digits band that the race has usually been pegged at?

    • CA-Gov: PPIC (9/19-26, likely voters, 7/6-20 in parentheses):

    Jerry Brown (D): 37 (46)

    Meg Whitman (R): 38 (40)

    Other: 7 (-)

    Undecided: 18 (14)

    (MoE: ±3.6%)

    Unfortunately, this poll closes out the end of a run of remarkable luck for Jerry Brown of polls showing him spiking into the lead (although there’s a lot of movement from both candidates to “Other,” though I’m not sure who that would be). Importantly, though, the polling period ended before Meg Whitman’s illegal housekeeper problem burst into public view. The SEIU is doing its part to keep the issue front and center, pumping $5 million into a Latino outreach effort that’s largely field efforts but also includes an ad starting in a few days hitting Whitman on the housekeeper issue. Whitman’s also doing her part to keep it in the news, saying she’ll employ the scoundrel’s last refuge — a polygraph test — to prove she was unaware.

    • NY-Gov: Marist (9/27-29, likely voters, 9/14-19 in parentheses):

    Andrew Cuomo (D): 53 (52)

    Carl Paladino (R): 38 (33)

    Rick Lazio (C): – (9)

    Undecided: 8 (6)

    (MoE: ±4%)

    Marist strikes back quickly with another poll following up on the news that Rick Lazio is no longer a candidate, preferring to enjoy the great prestige that comes with a trial court judgeship in the Bronx. At any rate, they don’t see anything changing other than what you’d expect: most of Lazio’s voters from the Conservative line gravitated over to GOP nominee Carl Paladino, with a few, unappetized by the bombastic Paladino, joining the ranks of the undecided.

    • OR-Gov: One major explanation for how Chris Dudley has made a major race out of what looked like an easy Dem pickup hold a year ago is… money. (As with so many other races this year…) Dudley has raised $5.6 million all cycle long, as of Tuesday’s reporting deadline, more than doubling up on John Kitzhaber’s $2.6 million, the largest disparity between the two parties ever seen in an Oregon gubernatorial race. (The SEIU has been running ads on Kitzhaber’s behalf, and the DGA has $750K ready to go, but that’s still a big deficit.)

    • RI-Gov: Fleming & Associates for WPRI-TV (9/22-26, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Frank Caprio (D): 33

    John Robitaille (R): 19

    Lincoln Chafee (I): 30

    Undecided: 15

    (MoE: ±4.4%)

    There’s been a general trend in the last month or two toward the Democrat, Frank Caprio, in this race. But the newest poll (apparently the first of this race from Fleming & Associates), on behalf of local TV stations, shows a much closer race, with Caprio up only 3 on his indie opponent, Lincoln Chafee.

    • GA-08: American Viewpoint for Austin Scott (9/26-27, likely voters, late July in parentheses):

    Jim Marshall (D-inc): 38 (44)

    Austin Scott (R): 46 (39)

    Undecided: 13 (14)

    (MoE: ±5.7%)

    Well, there’s only one alarming GOP House internal poll today, unlike yesterday’s onslaught. (Also, note the hypertrophied margin of error, based on an n of 300.) Still, this is another race that’s tended to be on the “Lean D” or at least “Tilt D” side of the equation, and one more juggling ball that the DCCC is going to have to keep in the air.

    • ME-01, ME-02: Critical Insights, like last time, included both Maine House districts as part of their poll, so we actually have some trendlines now. In the 1st, Chellie Pingree is expanding her lead over Dean Scontras, 54-26. However, in the 2nd, Mike Michaud’s lead over Jason Levesque is a little smaller, down to 44-32 (from 48-28). (In a way, that’s reassuring, because that’s evidence that Critical Insights didn’t just stumble into a much Dem-friendlier batch, and that the flight from Paul LePage seems real.)

    • DSCC: The DSCC is having to put some money into Connecticut, a race they probably thought they could avoid spending on when Richard Blumenthal got into the race. They’re starting with a smallish $250K, though. Other DSCC outlays today include $720K in CO-Sen, $464K in IL-Sen, $362K in MO-Sen, and $386K in WV-Sen.

    • NARAL: NARAL rolled out endorsements of twenty different Dems running in House races, almost all of whom received $5K each. You can click for the full list, but it includes Cedric Richmond, Steve Pougnet, John Hulburd, and Joe Garcia on offense (the rest are defensive picks).

    • SSP TV:

    • AK-Sen: Lisa Murkowski’s out with two different ads, one hitting Joe Miller as outsider, the other a PSA-type ad that verrrry slowly and carefully explains to people how to vote for her

    • KY-Sen: Here’s a powerful new ad from Jack Conway hitting Rand Paul on the drug issue yet again, complete with tombstone and tagline “He doesn’t know us” (interestingly, though, the DSCC is following the NRSC’s lead here with an ad buy cancellation for the week of the 5th) (UPDATE: Looks like the DS un-cancelled)

    • MO-Sen: Roy Blunt hits Robin Carnahan over the stimulus, pointing out that another member of the extended Carnahan clan got money for his wind farm

    • WI-Sen: Russ Feingold tries going back to firing up the base, running an ad based on the merits of health care reform

    • MI-01: The NRCC weighs in with an ad in the 1st, an endless circle of meta wherein Dan Benishek attacks Gary McDowell for attacking

    • WI-07: Julie Lassa goes back to the theme of Sean Duffy having prematurely abandoned his day job as DA to run for the House

    • AJS: Americans for Job Security tries again in VA-09 (remember that’s where their previous ad got bounced for being too egregious), as well as in CO-03 and NY-24

    • Rasmussen:

    • CO-Sen: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 43%, Ken Buck (R) 51%

    • FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek (D) 21%, Marco Rubio (R) 41%, Charlie Crist (I) 30%

    • IA-Sen: Roxanne Conlin (D) 37%, Charles Grassley (R-inc) 55%

    • KY-Sen: Jack Conway (D) 38%, Rand Paul (R) 49%

    • MA-Gov: Deval Patrick (D-inc) 47%, Charlie Baker (R) 42%, Tim Cahill (I) 6%

    • NV-Gov: Rory Reid (D) 40%, Brian Sandoval (R) 53%

    • NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 48%, Sharron Angle (R) 47%

    • OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 42%, John Kasich (R) 50%

    • WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D-inc) 47%, Dino Rossi (R) 48%

    • WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 42%, Ron Johnson 54%

    SSP Daily Digest: 9/29 (Afternoon Edition)

    • AK-Sen: The Tea Party Express is reloading in Alaska, with Lisa Murkowski having popped up again as a target. They’re launching a new ad blitz starting Monday, although no word on how much they plan to spend on this go-round.

    • CA-Sen: It seems like the NRSC can read the handwriting on the wall in California: they’ve canceled a $1.9 million ad buy on Carly Fiorina’s behalf for the last week before the election (probably sensing that money’s more valuable in West Virginia). They’re, of course, framing it as “advancing in another direction,” saying they wanted to give her flexibility to spend the money “around the state and not just in one city.”

    • CO-Sen: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for DSCC (9/22-26, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Michael Bennet (D-inc): 48

    Ken Buck (R): 46

    (n=800)

    The DSCC has the first publicly-offered poll in a while giving Michael Bennet a lead, here up 2 on Ken Buck. (The last poll with a Bennet lead seems to be that joint POS/Fairbank Maslin poll from early September, which had him up by 3.)

    • DE-Sen: Wow, Christine O’Donnell’s resume (on her LinkedIn profile) is falling apart like it was made out of balsa wood and chewing gum. After getting called on not having actually taken any classes at Oxford yesterday, now it turns out that she never took any classes at Claremont Graduate University. And she’s offering a really strange denial, the kind of thing you might expect from a first-grader rather than a 41-year old: that Linked In profile with her name on it? Yeah, she’s saying she didn’t put it up and doesn’t know who did.

    • LA-Sen: I don’t know if anyone has compared this yet to that epic-length R. Kelly video that has him hiding in closet and there’s a dwarf apropos of nothing? At any rate, Charlie Melancon is out with a new ad that’s not the first time he’s broached the issue of David Vitter’s, um, personal failings… but this one goes on for two whole minutes, chronicling the whole thing in great detail. Given its remarkable length, it should be no surprise that it’s only running on cable.

    • NC-Sen: Public Policy Polling (pdf) (9/23-26, likely voters, late Aug. in parentheses):

    Elaine Marshall (D): 36 (38)

    Richard Burr (R-inc): 49 (43)

    Michael Beitler (L):  (6)

    Undecided: 11 (13)

    (MoE: ±3.8%)

    The movement toward Richard Burr (thanks to his seemingly-effective advertising, paid for with his huge financial edge) shown by other pollsters is corroborated by PPP, who’ve tended to see a closer race here in their home state than anyone else. He leads by 13, instead of 5 like last time. One galling number, indicating this could be a real race if Elaine Marshall had any money (not forthcoming, since the DSCC is playing so much defense elsewhere), is that Marshall actually leads 47-45 among those who have an opinion of her.

    • NV-Sen: Jon Ralston continues to pummel Sharron Angle, this time over her strange attempts to walk back claims that she wants to privatize the VA. “Walk back” may not even be the right word, since her seem to involve the argument that she never actually said the words that she previously said in May. Meanwhile, here’s the level of message discipline they have over at Camp Angle: her own spokesperson is criticizing Angle’s latest ad on immigration as “propaganda,” in her side gig as chair of the Nevada Republican Hispanic Caucus!

    • WA-Sen: Who’s the most popular politician in America these days? Bill Clinton, believe it or not. So it’s no surprise he’s in demand as Democratic surrogate, and he’s even coming to Washington on Patty Murray’s behalf, headlining a Boeing-themed event in Everett on Oct. 18.

    • CA-Gov: This story seems to be developing as the day goes on: Meg Whitman’s camp has had to cop to the fact that she once employed a housekeeper who was, gasp, an illegal immigrant. The fight… which will probably determine how much of a story this becomes (if any) over the next few days… seems to be over how much Whitman personally knew about her status (although the non-matching social security number seems like it should’ve been a tipoff).

    • CO-Gov: Wow, this might actually help Dan Maes climb his way out of polling in the low teens! Today he offers some exculpatory evidence that he did too sorta-kinda work as an undercover officer for a small-town police department in Kansas. (Of course, it also shows that he was in fact fired for leaking information about the probe to the relative of a target.)

    • OH-Gov: Benenson for Campaign for the Moderate Majority (9/25-27, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Ted Strickland (D-inc): 41

    John Kasich (R): 40

    Undecided: 13

    (MoE: ±4%)

    You might apply a little salt as this is a poll by a Dem pollster for Dem-sounding group, but this is still the first we’ve seen this in a long, long while… a poll with Ted Strickland in the lead. With a trio of polls in the last few days showing Strickland down by either 1 or 2, there’s some definite late closing in this race. (One strange item, though, is that “other” candidates are eating up 6% of the vote here. I’d be surprised if that continues.)

    • CO-02: Magellan (9/29, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Jared Polis (D-inc): 48

    Stephen Bailey (R): 36

    Undecided: 8

    (MoE: ±3.7%)

    I’m not sure why Magellan fired up their crack team of robo-dialers to test this race, not really on anyone’s radar screen — maybe they’re prospecting for unusual targets. As one would expect, Jared Polis isn’t in particular danger in this D+11 district, although thanks to the drag of the national climate his numbers seem softer than the district’s heavy lean.

    • NC-07: SurveyUSA for Civitas (pdf) (9/24-26, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Mike McIntyre (D-inc): 45

    Ilario Pantano (R): 46

    (MoE: ±4.4%)

    SurveyUSA takes a look at NC-07, as part of the Civitas Institute’s rotating cast of pollsters. The (not very comforting) good news is that this is SurveyUSA, which has been putting out very GOP-friendly polling in House races, especially in North Carolina. (See their NC-11 polling, compared to other sources.) The bad news is that this race is pretty low on people’s watch lists, although the NRCC has started to spending some money on ads here.

    • VA-02: POS for Scott Rigell (9/26-27, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Glenn Nye (D-inc): 35

    Scott Rigell (R): 42

    Kenny Golden (I): 5  

    Undecided: 18

    (MoE: ±4.9%)

    On top of the NRCC internal poll leaked yesterday (giving Scott Rigell a decent if not-awe-inspiring 45-40 lead over Glenn Nye in an Ayres McHenry poll on 9/23-26), now Rigell’s out with his own internal poll from POS giving him a slightly bigger lead. There’s one very strange detail here, though: the voters going for tea-flavored indie Kenny Golden seem to be coming out Glenn Nye’s column, as that subsample has 59/23 Obama approvals. The MoE on that subsample is probably astronomical, but still, there seems to be some message confusion here about who’s who.

    • WI-07: POS for Sean Duffy (9/21-22, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Julie Lassa (D): 43

    Sean Duffy (R): 47

    (MoE: ±4.9%)

    With Julie Lassa having released a poll yesterday showing her down by 1, Sean Duffy retaliated with a poll showing, well, not much difference: his poll has Lassa down by 4. This gets a little confusing, because the NRCC is out with a totally different internal poll today giving Duffy a better result (see below). At any rate, the polls taken in combination seem to give him a definite advantage here.

    • NRSC: Here are some McCain Bucks that are actually worth something in the real world! Apparently feeling confident in his general (having survived a bigger challenge in his primary from J.D. Hayworth), John McCain just kicked $1 million over to the NRSC. (Alternate title: Good news! From John McCain!)

    • NRCC: In addition to those couple candidate-released internals, the NRCC leaked five more internals of its own today to the Hotline, the majority of which confirm the expected trouble in three Midwestern open seats, but one showing a sleepy race is a live one and one with flat-out awful numbers for the Dem:

    WI-08: Steve Kagen (D-inc) 39%, Reid Ribble (R) 57% (OnMessage, 9/15-16)

    IL-17: Phil Hare (D-inc) 43%, Bobby Schilling (R) 44% (Tarrance Group, 9/23-25)

    WI-07: Julie Lassa (D) 38%, Sean Duffy (R) 52% (Fabrizio, McLaughlin 9/15-16)

    MI-01: Gary McDowell (D) 24%, Dan Benishek (R) 40% (Hill Research, 9/19-22) (um, no polling on Glenn Wilson?)

    IN-08: Trent Van Haaften (D) 20%, Larry Buchson (R) 41% (OnMessage, 9/13-14)

    • American Crossroads: Money’s flowing out of American Crossroads as fast as it flows in, from their handful of billionaire donors: they’re launching TV ad buys worth $724K in CO-Sen, $618K in IL-Sen, $346K in NV-Sen, $267K in PA-Sen, $492K in WA-Sen, $384K in MO-Sen, and also $247K in direct mail in FL-Sen. (Here’s a peek at their WA-Sen ad.)

    • NFIB: Committees? Who needs ’em? The National Federation of Independent Business is getting straight into the IE business, too, and in a big way. They have a new PA-Sen ad out (see the link). They’re also starting to advertise in NC-Sen, WI-Sen, IN-08, WI-07, ND-AL, OH-16, NM-01, NV-03, FL-08, SC-05, VA-05, and WI-08.

    • State legislatures: Louis Jacobson, writing for Governing magazine, updates his state legislature projections, with almost every move in the Republicans’ favor. 25 of the 28 chambers “in play” are Democratic-controlled. The most alarming moves include moving the Dem-held Pennsylvania House and Ohio House to Lean Republican, and the North Carolina Senate and Colorado House to Tossup. The one remaining viable pickup opportunity for Dems is the Texas House.

    • Polltopia: There isn’t exactly anything new in this Politico piece from Maggie Haberman, but it does convey that professional pollsters and poll watchers in the Beltway are throwing up their hands in frustration about wildly vacillating, inconclusive polling this cycle as the rest of us are… showing that, really, nobody has much of a clue as to what’s about to happen. Just to help everyone take a deep breath and keep things in perspective here…

    • SSP TV:

    • FL-Sen: The winning ad of the day comes from the Florida Democratic Party, on Kendrick Meek’s behalf, letting Charlie Crist do all the talking about how he’s really a conservative Republican

    • WI-Sen: I actually agree with the Fix here that this is an effective Ron Johnson ad, letting him play the outsider in the same way that Russ Feingold did 18 years ago

    • WV-Sen: The NRSC contrasts at-home Joe Manchin vs. Washington Joe Manchin

    • FL-Gov: The FDP is also out with two different ads in the Governor’s race, hitting Rick Scott on his Columbia/HCA tenure and contrasting that with Alex Sink’s uncontroversial time at Bank of America

    • MA-Gov: The RGA keeps hitting Tim Cahill (on the lottery this time), knowing full well that less Cahill means more Charlie Baker

    • MD-Gov: Martin O’Malley is one politician embracing instead of fleeing Barack Obama, in a new radio ad

    • FL-22: Ron Klein is out with another anti-Allen West ad, but it’s back to the tax liens instead of dipping into the well of crazy

    • IA-01: AFF is out with a mondo-sized ad buy against Bruce Braley in a race that no one else but them seems to be paying attention to (for $800K!) (h/t desmoinesdem)

    • KS-03: Stephene Moore is finally out with her first TV spot, which is mostly an attack on Kevin Yoder (though self-narrated, which is unusual for that)

    • NH-02: Ann McLane Kuster’s out with an ad hitting Charlie Bass for wanting to “pick up where he left off”

    • NV-03: Here’s a link to that Dina Titus “peas in a pod” ad that we mentioned this morning, tying Joe Heck to Sharron Angle

    • PA-12: Mark Critz’s first ad talks about his own hardscrabble roots, and about outsourcing

    • WI-07: As cool as it is to watch, how many more ads is Sean Duffy going to keep playing lumberjack in?

    • Rasmussen:

    • OH-Sen: Lee Fisher (D) 42%, Rob Portman (R) 51%

    OH-Sen, OH-Gov: Two Polls Show Grim Reality for Fisher, But Hope for Strickland?

    CBS News/NY Times (9/23-27, likely voters, no trend lines):

    Lee Fisher (D): 34

    Rob Portman (R): 45

    Undecided: 18

    Ted Strickland (D-inc): 42

    John Kasich (R): 43

    Undecided: 11

    (MoE: ±3.2%)

    Ipsos for Reuters (9/23-25, likely voters, 8/6-8 in parens):

    Lee Fisher (D): 37 (36)

    Rob Portman (R): 50 (43)

    Ted Strickland (D-inc): 46 (39)

    John Kasich (R): 47 (48)

    (MoE: ±4%)

    More of the same for Lee Fisher, a guy whose campaign has few true believers these days. But what’s this? Two polls showing Gov. Ted Strickland only down by a point? That’s the best math we’ve seen for Strickland since May. Even recent polls from Rasmussen and the University of Cincinnati have this race in the low single-digits. Is it reasonable to hope that Ted Strickland has a fighting chance to hold this crucial office, despite the months-long narrative that Ohio Democrats are on the ropes?

    SSP Daily Digest: 9/28

    • AK-Sen: Daily Kos just added Scott McAdams to its Orange to Blue list, so if you’re still looking to throw some money in his direction, you can do so via Big Orange. Meanwhile, Lisa Murkowski is trying to gear up her write-in campaign, and with Ted Stevens having been laid to rest this week, she’s mulling whether to roll out those ads featuring Stevens that she had ready to go pre-primary but pulled because of his death. This can’t be good news for Murkowski, though: Rep. Don Young, more from the Murkowski/Stevens wing of the local GOP than the teabagger wing, is having a bout of self-preservation and is staying neutral, not endorsing anyone in the race. Finally, here’s one more page in Joe Miller’s ongoing saga of milking the system that he hates so darn much: when new to Alaska (but after he’d bought his expensive house and started working as an attorney), he obtained an indigent hunting/fishing license that required an income of less than $8,200/yr.

    • DE-Sen: Christine O’Donnell says she attended Oxford. Oh, no, wait, she took a course from something called the Phoenix Institute that “rented space from” Oxford. Why am I not surprised?

    • FL-Sen: I always figured that the early love affair between the local teabaggery and Marco Rubio wouldn’t last; he seemed more from the mainstream Jeb Bush camp and it seemed more a marriage of convenience based on his charisma but mostly on the fact that he wasn’t Charlie Crist. Anyway, he’s pretty much severed the relationship and making a break for the establishment with his latest revelation, that he decided several months ago against privatizing Social Security after concluding the idea “doesn’t work.” (If Ken Buck gets elected, I wonder how long it’ll take him to make the same move?)

    • IL-Sen: The DSCC is keeping on pouring money into the Land of Lincoln, bolstering Alexi Giannoulias. They’re adding another $400K to the pile, for another week on the air.

    • KY-Sen: The NRSC is taking the opposite tack, engaging in a little advertisus interruptus and pulling out for a week from Kentucky. (They claim they’re doing so from a position of strength, naturally.) Meanwhile, this is kind of small ball ($1,400 in contributions from three guys), but it’s still the kind of headline you probably don’t want to see if you’re Rand Paul, especially once you’ve made your feelings on the Civil Rights Act clear:

    Conway camp calls on Paul to return money from white separatists

    • NY-Sen-B: Marist (9/19-22, likely voters, 5/3-5 in parentheses):

    Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 52 (50)

    Joe DioGuardi (R): 41 (30)

    Undecided: 7 (20)

    (MoE: ±4%)

    Marist gives you a buffet of different numbers of choose from, as it’s 54-42 for Gillibrand when leaners are pushed, or it’s 55-36 when polling just registered voters (meaning there’s an enthusiasm gap worth 8 points here). They also find Chuck Schumer having no problems in the other Senate race, leading Jay Townsend 58-37 among LVs (and 63-32 among RVs).

    • WI-Sen: Ron Johnson’s one act of political participation prior to this year — testifying before the state legislature in opposition to the bipartisan-supported Wisconsin Child Victims Act — is getting a second look in the press. His main interest in opposing the bill was that it could lead to corporations or other business entities being held liable for acts of employees, worried about the “economic havoc” it would create (and worried that those meddling “trial lawyers” would benefit). Think Progress has video of the testimony.

    • WV-Sen: This seems like a new one to me… John Raese is actually paying people to write letters to the editor on his behalf. Not just offering them McCain Bucks that can’t be redeemed for anything in the real world, but running an actual contest giving money to people who get the most letters published. Also, I’ll give John Raese credit for being himself even when he’s being followed around by reporters. Here’s his reaction to finding out that the NRA endorsement went to Joe Manchin:

    Raese speaks angrily into the phone, his words full of threat: “Tell them that I have an A plus rating with them, and that if they are fair they should include that. Tell them about the polling. Tell them I’m riding an elephant.” Raese pulls the cell phone away from his ear,  hands it back to Patrick the driver, and says “That has made it a lot harder.”

    • CT-Gov: Little known fact: did you know that Jodi Rell still hasn’t endorsed Tom Foley yet, despite only weeks to go? Foley’s camp is saying it’s imminent, but it looks like Rell has summoned up even less enthusiasm in the general as she did for her Lt. Gov., Michael Fedele, in the GOP primary.

    • FL-Gov: Here’s an interesting endorsement for Alex Sink: she got the backing of term-limited Republican state Sen. Alex Villalobos. Villalobos is also backing Charlie Crist (and even Dan Gelber in the AG race), so this exactly a sign of the Republican edifice collapsing, though.

    • IA-Gov, SD-AL: Add one more to the long list of Dems who are getting a nice NRA endorsement as their box-of-Rice-a-Roni-and-can-of-Turtle-Wax-style parting gift on their way out the studio door. Chet Culver just got the backing of the gun lobby. (One state to the north, they also just backed Stephanie Herseth Sandlin today.)

    • CA-44: PPP for Democrats.com (9/24-26, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Bill Hedrick (D): 38

    Ken Calvert (R-inc): 49

    Undecided: 13

    (n=760)

    Despite being woefully underfunded, Bill Hedrick’s keeping the race competitive in his rematch against Ken Calvert (recall that he almost won, out of nowhere, in 2008). How he makes up that last 12 points in this climate, though, I’m not sure.

    • FL-22: Harstad Research Group for Project New West (9/20-22, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Ron Klein (D): 48

    Allen West (R): 43

    Undecided: 9

    (n=504)

    There’s lots of back-and-forth in the polling of the 22nd, with each side sporting their own internal with a lead in the last week. Dem pollster Harstad weighs in with another one going in Ron Klein’s column.

    • KS-03: Moore money, Moore problems? Retiring Rep. Dennis Moore is still busy emptying out his campaign coffers, transferring $100K more to the Kansas Democratic party (on top of a previous $100K in June). That’s probably with the understanding that the money will be used to pay for their newest mailer in support of Stephene Moore, running to succeed her husband.

    • NH-01, NH-02: American Research Group (9/22-26, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc): 40

    Frank Guinta (R): 50

    Undecided: 8

    Ann McLane Kuster (D): 36

    Charlie Bass (R): 38

    Undecided: 21

    (MoE: ±5%)

    Here are some unusual results from ARG! (although should we expect anything else?): they find Carol Shea-Porter getting keelhauled in the 1st, while the open seat battle in the 2nd is a swashbuckling battle (contrary to other polls we’ve seem of these races, where the 1st has been a tossup or a narrow CSP advantage while the 2nd has looked bad).

    • PA-08: I’ve been patiently waiting here for actual toplines for more than a day, but it seems like they aren’t forthcoming… so I’ll just let you know there’s a Harstad Research Group poll (on behalf of SEIU and VoteVets, not the Patrick Murphy campaign) out in the 8th that gives Murphy a 3-point lead over Mike Fitzpatrick and an 8-point lead among voters who voted in 2006. It was taken Sept. 20-22.

    • WI-07: Garin Hart Yang for Julie Lassa (9/26-27, likely voters, in parentheses):

    Julie Lassa (D): 41

    Sean Duffy (R): 42

    Gary Kauther (I): 7

    Undecided: 10

    (MoE: ±4.4%)

    I don’t know how good a sign this is, releasing an internal where you’re still trailing in a Democratic-leaning district. Lassa needs to let the donors know she’s still in this, I suppose.

    • WV-03: Global Strategy Group for DCCC (9/23-26, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Nick Rahall (D-inc): 55

    Spike Maynard (R): 37

    Undecided: 8

    (MoE: ±4.8%)

    Well, here’s one district where all the polls (even the one from AFF) are consistent in showing a nearly-20 point edge for long-time Dem Nick Rahall.

    • NY-St. Sen.: Four polls from Siena of key New York State Senate races have, on the balance, bad news for the Democrats: Darrell Aubertine, the first Democrat in several geological epochs to hold SD-48 in the North Country, is trailing GOP opponent Pattie Ritchie for re-election, 48-45. Brian Foley, in Long Island-based SD-4, is also in a tough race, leading Lee Zeldin 44-43. Meanwhile, two Republican incumbents are looking fairly safe: Frank Padavan, who barely survived 2008 in Dem-leaning Queens-based SD-11, leads ex-city councilor Tony Avella 56-32, while in SD-44, Hugh Farley leads Susan Savage 55-37. (I’d rather see them poll the open seat races; that’s where the Republicans are at more risk.)

    • Mayors: There aren’t a lot of big-city mayoral races where the decisive vote is in November (most were wrapped up in the primaries), but one interesting one is Louisville, where the longtime Dem incumbent Jerry Abramson is leaving in order to run for LG next year. Dem Greg Fischer (who you may remember from the 2008 Senate primary) is beating Republican city councilor Hal Heiner 48-42, according to SurveyUSA.

    • DLCC: You probably saw yesterday that the DLCC is out with a first round of 20 “essential races” for controlling key state legislative chambers. Well, over in diaries, now they’re soliciting suggestions for further additions to the list, so please add some suggestions from races that are near and dear to your own hearts.

    • SSP TV:

    • CA-Sen: The Chamber of Commerce, trying to salvage this dwindling race, tries to hang the “career politician” tag on Barbara Boxer

    • CO-Sen: The DSCC goes after Ken Buck on Social Security again

    • CO-Sen: The NRSC runs an anti-Michael Bennet ad, hitting him on his support for health care reform

    • DE-Sen: The DSCC crams as much Christine O’Donnell insanity as it can into 30 seconds

    • IL-Sen: Mark Kirk goes back to where he began, with another bio spot of small town boy made good

    • PA-Sen: Joe Sestak’s newest ad keeps on trying to tie Pat Toomey to Wall Street

    • WV-Sen: The DSCC goes after John Raese for supporting eliminating the minimum wage and his own ooopses at his own company

    • CT-Gov: The DGA hits Tom Foley on outsourcing in his former career as textile magnate

    • MI-Gov: The RGA hits Virg Bernero on spending as mayor (OMG! he spent $1,277 on pencils!)

    • NM-Gov: Another Susana Martinez attack ad hits Diane Denish for some bungled solar power thingamajig

    • TX-Gov: Here’s a mindblowing stat: the DGA has never paid for advertising in Texas… until now. They’re out with an attack on Rick Perry, calling him what nobody wants to be called this cycle (“career politican”)

    • KY-03: Todd Lally’s out with two ads, one a bio spot, the other a pretty funny attack on John Yarmuth using the K-Tel greatest hits album motif

    • MI-07: Tim Walberg has to call on his mom for help: not to do any polling on his behalf, just to appear in an ad about Social Security

    • NC-02: This was probably inevitable… AJS weighs into the 2nd with an ad using Bob Etheridge going apeshit on a poor innocent little tracker

    • NC-11: Repent now or Jeff Miller will forever cast you into the fiery pits of Nancy Pelosi’s hell!

    • ND-AL: Earl Pomeroy touts how well he cooperated with George W. Bush! (on Medicare Part D, though, which probably plays well among North Dakota’s aging population)

    • PA-08: Outsourcing must be polling well for the Dems these days, as Patrick Murphy hits Mike Fitzpatrick on that

    • VA-05: Indie candidate Jeff Clark scrounged up enough money to advertise? And he’s attacking GOPer Robert Hurt? That’s good enough for me

    • Rasmussen:

    • CT-Gov: Dan Malloy (D) 50%, Tom Foley (R) 40%

    • WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D) 46%, John Raese (R) 48%

    • Fox/Pulse (aka Rasmussen):

    • CO-Gov: John Hickenlooper (D) 44%, Dan Maes (R) 15%, Tom Tancredo (C) 34%

    • CO-Sen: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 43%, Ken Buck (R) 47%

    • IL-Gov: Pat Quinn (D-inc) 36%, Bill Brady (R) 46%, Rich Whitney (G) 8%

    • IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 40%, Mark Kirk (R) 42%, LeAlan Jones (G) 7%

    • OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 43%, John Kasich (R) 45%

    • OH-Sen: Lee Fisher (D) 37%, Rob Portman (R) 50%

    • WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D-inc) 48%, Dino Rossi (R) 47%

    • WI-Gov: Tom Barrett (D) 45%, Scott Walker (R) 49%

    • WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 44%, Ron Johnson (R) 52%

    SSP Daily Digest: 9/27 (Afternoon Edition)

    • IA-Sen: Selzer & Co. for Des Moines Register (9/19-22, likely voters, 11/8-11/09 in parentheses):

    Roxanne Conlin (D): 30 (30)

    Charles Grassley (R-inc): 61 (57)

    Undecided: 6 (10)

    (MoE: ±4.2%)

    Not much to see here other than the remarkable consistency over the almost one year’s period since the previous Selzer poll of this race. (I just learned a new word today, while searching for how to describe this race, linked to the Chet Culver vortex: “syntropy.” It’s synergy + entropy.)

    • NH-Sen, NH-Gov: American Research Group (9/22-26, likely voters, Dec. 2009 in parentheses):

    Paul Hodes (D): 32 (36)

    Kelly Ayotte (R): 46 (43)

    Undecided: 20 (21)

    John Lynch (D-inc): 42

    John Stephen (R): 40

    Undecided: 14

    (MoE: ±3.5%)

    ARG, mateys! Here be a mighty treasure trove of undecided scallywags! (And here be the gubernatorial link.)

    • OH-Sen, OH-Gov: Univ. of Cincinnati for various Ohio newspapers (9/16-20, likely voters, 5/11-20 in parentheses):

    Lee Fisher (D): 40 (47)

    Rob Portman (R): 55 (46)

    Undecided: 5 (6)

    Ted Strickland (D-inc): 45 (49)

    John Kasich (R): 49 (44)

    Undecided: 6 (6)

    (MoE: ±3.4%)

    University of Cincinnati hasn’t been in the field for a while, so they missed the very steady decline of the Dems in Ohio, making it look like more of a sudden collapse. At any rate, this is actually Ted Strickland’s best non-internal showing since early August.

    • WA-Sen: Commonsense Ten is out with a $412K independent expenditure in the Washington Senate race, on Patty Murray’s behalf. (Wondering who they are? This Hotline article from July explains how they’re something of a Dem answer to groups like American Crossroads, as well as giving some legal background on just how it came to be that the super-wealthy can give endless money to 527s to spend endlessly on IEs.) Meanwhile, there are dueling ads in Washington. As one might expect, Patty Murray lets Dino Rossi hang himself with his own anti-Boeing words, while Rossi hits Murray on her support of tarps. (Since most Washingtonians own several tarps — they only thing that allows them to go camping during the ten rainy months of the year — I don’t see what the big deal is.)

    • WV-Sen: The Dems are definitely getting active in here: the AFL-CIO is out with a huge direct mail blitz in West Virginia, and the DSCC is placing a major ad buy there starting tomorrow. In the meantime, John Raese, Tweeter and Facepage aficionado, is sticking to the GOP party line on global warming: it’s all volcanoes’ fault! (Wait… I thought it was sunspots. They’d better get their stories straight.)

    • AK-Gov: Bill Walker, after weeks of dithering in the wake of losing the GOP gubernatorial primary, has formally decided against a write-in bid (despite having an easier-to-spell name than Murkowski). No word on an endorsement of either Sean Parnell or Ethan Berkowitz, although Berkowitz has been steadily reaching out to Walker.

    • GA-Gov: With Nathan Deal not really having done much to deflect the attention being paid to his family’s imminent financial collapse, now he’s having to run damage control on another issue: his campaign is accused of having spent $135K to lease aircraft from a company where Deal himself is a part-owner. State ethics law bars candidates from using campaign funds for personal benefit, although the open legal question here is whether this turns into “personal benefit.”

    • NM-Gov: Third Eye Strategies for Diane Denish (9/21-23, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Diane Denish (D): 46

    Susana Martinez (R): 46

    Undecided: 7

    (MoE: ±4.4%)

    This is kind of odd… we just got a Diane Denish internal poll from a totally different pollster (GQR) in the middle of last week. Does she have two different pollsters working for her? At any rate, the news is decidedly better in this one, showing a tie where last week’s poll had her down by 5.

    • TX-Gov: Blum & Weprin for Texas newspapers (9/15-22, likely voters, 2/2-10 in parentheses):

    Bill White (D): 39 (37)

    Rick Perry (R-inc): 46 (43)

    Kathie Glass (L): 4 (-)

    Deb Shafto (G): 1 (-)

    Undecided: 8 (13)

    (MoE: ±3.9%)

    The Texas race is extremely stable (check out the flatness in Pollster‘s regression lines, with a mid-single-digits spread). While I’d like to think that Bill White can get over 50% on his own, his best hope at this point might be for Libertarian candidate Kathie Glass to start taking a bigger share (presumably out of Rick Perry’s hide, via the same crowd who went for Debra Medina in the primary).

    • FL-24: Hamilton Campaigns for Suzanne Kosmas (9/22-23, likely voters, 8/25-29 in parentheses):

    Suzanne Kosmas (D-inc): 45 (43)

    Sandy Adams (R): 43 (49)

    Undecided: 12 (9)

    (MoE: ±3.7%)

    This is the first internal we’ve seen from Team Kosmas, and while it’s not the kind of numbers that fill you with great confidence (up 2 in one’s own internal), it is an indicator that we’re still looking at a Tossup here instead of Lean R (which is where some of the other prognosticators have been sticking this one). The movement in Kosmas’s direction suggests that voters have found out more about the crazier side of Adams in the wake of her surprise primary victory.

    • MS-04: Tarrance Group for Steven Palazzo (9/21-22, likely voters, December 2009 Tarrance Grop poll for NRCC in parentheses):

    Gene Taylor (D-inc): 45 (68)

    Steven Palazzo (R): 41 (24)

    (MoE: ± ?%)

    There were reports last week that the NRCC was starting to smell smoke in this race (despite having an underfunded, low-name-rec candidate in Palazzo), and was going to try out a round of polling. Seems like their hunch may be right, as long-time Rep. Gene Taylor (who hasn’t given Dems much reason to take interest in him lately… well, ever, really) is up only by single-digits in a new poll from the Palazzo camp.

    • PA-10: Momentum Analysis for Chris Carney (9/23-25, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Chris Carney (D-inc): 46

    Tom Marino (R): 38

    Undecided: 17

    (MoE: ±4.9%)

    Chris Carney, having been slightly on the wrong end of a public poll from the Times-Leader (and on the very wrong end of that sketchy AFF poll last month), rolls out an internal giving him an 8-point lead over Tom Marino. Marino (who’s pretty underfunded, although the NRCC is starting to get involved) is little-known (only 26/24 faves), so this is going to be one of many races where the Dem’s survival is based on localizing in order to fend off Generic R.

    • PA-16: I’m not sure what to make of this: the uphill campaign of Lois Herr (going against Joe Pitts in the 16th, which is solidly Republican but moved a lot in the Dems’ direction in 2008) is out with a second internal poll from PPP that has her within single digits of the GOP incumbent. Pitts leads 41-34, which seems kind of bizarre considering that we’re seeing polls in Pennsylvania with incumbent Dems losing by larger margins than that in much friendlier districts.

    • SD-AL: Bennett Petts and Normington for Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (9/22-23, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc): 51

    Kristi Noem (R): 38

    Undecided: 10

    (MoE: ±4.9%)

    Here’s one race that seems to be becoming a little more comfortable for the Democrats. (Recall that Herseth Sandlin led in the last Rasmussen poll of this race, after months of trailing.) I wonder how much of that has to do with the reveal of Noem’s atrocious driving record, given voters’ memories of leadfooted ex-Rep. Bill Janklow?

    • DLCC: If you’re looking to really micro-target your financial contributions to where your dollars get stretched the furthest and the leverage is the greatest (given the knife-edges on which many state legislatures, and the entire 2012 redistricting process, rest) the DLCC has rolled out its “Essential Races” program. This points to some of the tightest races in the tightest chambers; the link details their first wave of 20.

    • CA-Init: There are some Field Poll leftovers to look at, concerning three of the biggest initiatives on the ballot this year. The news is good all around, although the margins aren’t decisive: Proposition 19 (marijuana legalization) is passing 49-42 (it was failing 44-48 in the July Field Poll). Proposition 23 (undoing greenhouse gases limiting legislation) is failing 34-45. And maybe most importantly, Proposition 25 (allowing budget passage with a simple majority) is passing 46-30.

    • Florida: Mason-Dixon’s latest Florida poll (we gave you Sen and Gov numbers over the weekend) has a lot of miscellany in the fine print that’s worth checking out. They find the GOP leading narrowly in three major downballot races: Pam Bondi leads Dan Gelber in the AG race 38-34, Jeff Atwater leads Loranne Ausley in the CFO race 29-27, and Adam Putnam leads Scott Maddox in the Ag Comm race 36-32. They also find that Amendment 4 has a shot at passing; it’s up 53-26, although bear in mind that you need to clear 60% for a Florida initiative. Amendment 4 would require localities to put changes to comprehensive zoning plans up to a public vote; Josh Goodman has a good discussion of it today along with several other initiatives in other states that may pass despite having both sides of the entire political establishment lined up against them.

    • SSP TV:

    • FL-Sen: Marco Rubio rolls out his first ad en espanol, a biographical spot

    • PA-Sen: How many freakin’ ads has Pat Toomey come out with? Anyway, here’s another one

    • CT-02: Joe Courtney stresses his independence, especially regarding TARP

    • CT-05: Chris Murphy’s new ad focuses on stopping outsourcing

    • PA-03, PA-11: The DCCC is out with new ads in the 3rd and 11th, continuing the trends of hitting Mike Kelly as out-of-touch millionaire and hitting Lou Barletta for sucking as Hazleton mayor

    • Rasmussen:

    • AL-Sen: William Barnes (D) 30%, Richard Shelby (R-inc) 58%

    • CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 50%, Linda McMahon (R) 45%

    • DE-Sen: Chris Coons (D) 49%, Christine O’Donnell (R) 40%, Mike Castle (I) 5%

    • GA-Sen: Michael Thurmond (D) 36%, Johnny Isakson (R-inc) 52%

    • IA-Gov: Chet Culver (D-inc) 37%, Terry Branstad (R) 55%

    • ND-Sen: Tracy Potter (D) 25%, John Hoeven (R) 68%

    • SC-Sen: Alvin Greene (D) 21%, Jim DeMint (R-inc) 64%