Tag: Daily Digests

• AZ-Sen: It’s been a rumor all year, but it just won’t die: ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth is reportedly still interested in challenging John McCain in the GOP primary next year. McCain already has a primary challenge from the fringey right, in the form of former Minutemen leader Chris Simcox.

• FL-Sen: Although Rep. Corrine Brown doesn’t seem to be taking any steps to get into the Dem field, it looks like Rep. Kendrick Meek still may not get the primary all to himself: former Miami mayor Maurice Ferre is signaling his interest in the race. Ferre is 74; he was the first Hispanic (he’s Puerto Rican) to be elected Miami mayor. Meanwhile, Meek is the beneficiary of yet another Bill Clinton fundraiser; this is the Big Dog’s fourth on behalf of Meek, a prominent Hillary Clinton endorser in 2008. Finally, Karl Rove is weighing in on the Florida senate primary, albeit just with a $1,000 donation and no loud public pronouncement: he’s backing Marco Rubio.

• IL-Sen: Rep. Mark Kirk says he’s raised $1.6 million for the 3rd quarter, leaving him with $2.3 million cash on hand. State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias hasn’t made any report yet, but ended the 2nd quarter with $1.65 million on hand.

• NV-Sen: The heat is getting turned up on John Ensign; Barbara Boxer confirmed today that the Senate Ethics Committee will be taking up the little matter of getting a lobbying job for cuckolded ex-staffer Doug Hampton and then steering him clients as a parting gift. Meanwhile, the GOP’s new candidate in the 2010 Senate race, Sue Lowden, is still clinging to Ensign, standing by earlier pro-Ensign comments at an Elko appearance on Friday, saying that she hopes to have Ensign campaigning on behalf of Republican candidates (including, presumably, herself) next year.

• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold seems to be sitting pretty, with high favorables and little in the way of GOP opposition. His likeliest opponent is Madison real estate developer Terrence Wall, but Wisconsin’s Blogging Blue makes a nice catch about Wall: he loves doing business in Wisconsin so much that all 16 of his business entities are incorporated in Delaware.

• AZ-Gov: Another minor GOP player is jumping into the gubernatorial primary against appointed incumbent Jan Brewer. Former state GOP chair (during the early 1980s) and former member of the university system Board of Regents John Munger is in the race. He joins Brewer and Paradise Valley mayor Vernon Parker, with state Treasurer Dean Martin and some other higher-profile figures considering it too.

• CA-Gov: Maybe this explains why alleged Republican Meg Whitman is running for governor and not for senate: turns out she endorsed Barbara Boxer in 2004 as part of Technology Leaders for Boxer, and gave her $4,000. No word yet on whether Whitman actually got around to voting for her, though.

• MN-Gov: A straw poll at the Minnesota GOP convention sees former state House minority leader Marty Seifert in pole position; he pulled in 37% of the vote among nine candidates. Little-known state Rep. Tom Emmer finished second at 23%, and former state Auditor Pat Anderson was third with 14%. Norm Coleman was also seen mingling with convention-goers (he got a few write-in votes although his name wasn’t on the ballot); he says he hasn’t fully ruled out running, saying he’ll make a decision early next year.

• SC-Gov: Republican AG Henry McMaster, who’s running to succeed Mark Sanford as governor, has run into his own little ethical snafu. He’s having to return $32,500 in illegal contributions that came from five attorneys after he had hired them to work on cases for the state.

• SD-Gov: Republican Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard officially kicked off his campaign for the 2010 gubernatorial race. In an apparently all-Scandinavian-American rumble, he’ll face off against state Senate majority leader Dave Knudson in the GOP primary, and the winner will face Democratic state Senate minority leader Scott Heidepriem.

• VA-Gov: The money keeps pouring into the Virginia governor’s race. The DNC is throwing another $1 million into Creigh Deeds’ kitty. Also, the RGA is going on the air with a huge ad buy in the DC market with an ad featuring a testy post-debate Deeds interview.

• WI-Gov (pdf): The Univ. of Wisconsin and Wisconsin Policy Research Institute poll the Wisconsin governor’s race, but primary fields only. Unknowns rule the day: on the Dem side, Milwaukee mayor and ex-Rep. Tom Barrett (who hasn’t confirmed his interest) beats Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton, 38-16. On the GOP side, Milwaukee Co. Exec Scott Walker beats ex-Rep. Mark Neumann 39-14, with 4% to Tim Michels. (Barrett is the best known of all the candidates, with a 36/12 favorable.) Current Gov. Jim Doyle heads out of office in net negative territory, with a 43/52 approval, although that still beats a lot of other governors right now.

• WY-Gov: Most of the major players seem to be standing around and waiting to see whether current Gov. Dave Freudenthal challenges the state’s term limit laws in court in order to grab a third term. One Republican isn’t waiting though, becoming the first announced big-ticket opponent: rancher Ron Micheli. He was a state Representative for 16 years and state Agriculture Director under Republican Gov. Jim Geringer.

• NV-03: It looks like the GOP may successfully trade up in the 3rd District. With banker John Guedry bailing out of the race for personal reasons, now it looks like they’ve coaxed former state Sen. Joe Heck out of the gubernatorial primary (where he initially looked like he had a shot at taking out unpopular incumbent Jim Gibbons, but turned into a long shot with the likely inclusion of ex-AG, ex-judge Brian Sandoval in the primary) and into the race against Dem freshman Rep. Dina Titus instead. Heck is still officially mum, but will have an announcement later this week.

• PA-11: Democratic Lackawanna County Commissioner Corey O’Brien had been a long-rumored primary challenger to long-time Rep. Paul Kanjorski in the 11th, and he made it official over the weekend. O’Brien is clearly emphasizing what a young go-getter he is (compared with the aging Kanjorski), kicking things off with 30 straight hours of campaigning.) Kanjo remains undeterred though, reiterating that he’s running for re-election and looking forward to the debate.

• Generic Ballot: PPP fires up another warning flare about 2010, looking at some of the generic ballot crosstabs. Among voters who don’t like either party, they opt for the GOP 50-14. But there’s a disparity by party line among unhappy voters. The unhappy Republicans will still vote GOP, 66-18, but the unhappy Democrats say they’ll cross over to the GOP, 48-26. On the plus side, there aren’t as many unhappy Democrats as there are unhappy Republicans (20% instead of 33%).

• House: Biden Alert! The VP has been working overtime in the last month appearing at fundraisers for vulnerable House members, helping nearly a dozen members haul more than a collective $1 million. He’s also been assisting with recruiting efforts, most notably with the successful score of Bethlehem mayor John Callahan in PA-15.

• CA-Sen: We’re starting to get fundraising reports filtering in, via the media and the rumor mill. And one of the most eyebrow-raising numbers comes from Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, of all places: he pulled in $330K in the third quarter, leaving him sitting on over $700K. He’s been given afterthought status as the NRSC and tradmed have rushed to fawn over Carly Fiorina, but his seeming success at tapping movement conservative wallets indicates that he won’t be going away quietly.

• FL-Sen: When you have so many people giving you money, a few of them are bound to be very bad apples…. Alan Mendelsohn, a prominent eye doctor and chief fundraiser for the Florida Medical Association PAC, was also a key financial backer of Charlie Crist and a member of his transition team. Yesterday he was charged by a federal grand jury with mail and wire fraud, aiding and abetting fraud, and lying to federal agents.

• IL-Sen: Maybe Mike Ditka doesn’t have the same iconic power that he used to, but if he does, then upstart GOP primary challenger Patrick Hughes got a really big get. The former coach of da Bears endorsed Hughes, who seems to be coalescing most of the hard-right, anti-Mark Kirk sentiment in the Senate primary.

• MA-Sen: More showy fundraising numbers out of Massachusetts, where everyone is scrambling for money in view of the primary election a few months away. Most notable is AG Martha Coakley, whose only real weakness seemed to be a lack of money (as she already has statewide name rec, is the only woman in the race, and a big edge in the polls). That’s a weakness no longer, as she raised $2.1 million in less than a month. By contrast, Rep. Michael Capuano raised only $300K in that period; even with the $1.2 mil in his House account, his one advantage — money — has now vaporized. The big surprise is City Year founder Alan Khazei, who raised $1 million in just a week after a late start to his candidacy; the question is whether he can convert that into a decent share of the vote. Celtics co-owner Steven Pagliuca raised only $200K, but can dip into his own money to advertise.

• NV-Sen: A long but must-read piece from the NYT looks at the tangled web between John Ensign and the Hampton family. Most significantly, it looks like Ensign not only went further than previously thought in trying to line up a job for Doug Hampton (the mistress’s husband) but then used his governmental power to do favors for Hampton’s new employer, Allegiant Air — certainly a violation of Senate ethics rules. And this is the Ensign that new GOP golden girl Sue Lowden was trying to circle the wagons around, even long after most of the rest of the local GOP had decided he was better served under the bus.

• NY-Gov: This is interesting: Mitt Romney is moving to back ex-Rep. Rick Lazio in the governor’s race and hosting a Lazio fundraiser. Since polls show Lazio getting completely flattened by Rudy Giuliani if they face off in a gubernatorial primary, Romney’s expenditure of political capital is either a) a sign that insiders are pretty well aware that Giuliani won’t be getting into the governor’s race after all, or else b) a repayment for Lazio’s backing in the 2008 prez primary and a thumb-in-the-eye for primary rival Giuliani.

• GA-12: More news out of the 12th: Wayne Mosley, a wealthy doctor and the NRCC’s recruit in the race thanks to his self-funding capacity (in fact, one of their top recruits in the nation, if you believe Mosely himself), had to drop out of the race. Mosely is being sued by his hospital for breach of contract, and apparently that’s taking up all his time and money. That leaves Thunderbolt Fire Chief Carl Smith and activist Jeanne Seaver as options to go up against Blue Dog Dem Rep. John Barrow.

• HI-01: Here’s some good news for those of us who’d like to see the House stay nice and Ed Case-free: state Senate president Colleen Hanabusa is getting in the race for the Democratic nomination for the open seat in the 1st being vacated by Neil Abercrombie. Hanabusa’s main opponent looks like it will be ex-Rep. Ed Case, who beat Hanabusa in the 2002 race in HI-02; the progressive Hanabusa may have better odds against the moderate Case this time, as Case alienated a lot of the local party with an ill-advised primary challenge to Sen. Dan Akaka in 2006.

• MO-03: Rep. Russ Carnahan picked up a Republican opponent: attorney Ed Martin. The 3rd is a D+7 district that has presented Carnahan with little trouble in the past.

• NY-23: Dede Scozzafava finally hit the TV airwaves with a new ad, leading the polls but lagging both her opponents in the battle for the airwaves. Also, check out Robert Harding’s thorough examination at the Albany Project of Scozzafava’s not-so-liberal actual voting record in the Assembly, if you’re looking for a counterpoint to yesterday’s Daily Kos piece about Scozzafava.

• SD-AL: Republican state Rep. Blake Curd, a Sioux Falls surgeon, is the first opponent to officially get in the race against Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin. Secretary of State Chris Nelson is still considering the race, though, and given his statewide profiel seems like he’d be likelier to win the GOP primary if he got in.

• VA-10: Rep. Frank Wolf, the Republican dean of the Virginia delegation, has picked up a Democratic challenger in the form of attorney Patrick Lewis. Demographics are quickly moving this NoVa suburban/exurban district in the Democratic direction (it’s up to R+2 now), but Wolf has the kind of personal staying power that makes Lewis’s challenge an uphill fight.

• OH-SoS: Bad news out of the Ohio Secretary of State race (on the short list as one of the nation’s most important downballot statewide offices): Franklin County Commissioner Marilyn Brown decided to end her bid for the Democratic nomination, preferring instead to run for re-election. While this may spare the Dems a contested primary, this leaves only the much more conservative state Rep. Jennifer Garrison in the race, which may leave the base unenthused for the general election.

• ME-Init: Democracy Corps has a poll out on the anti-gay marriage ballot measure in Maine. They find 41% “yes” and 50% “no.” (Remember, as with California’s Prop 8, a “yes” vote is a vote against gay marraige.) These numbers are slightly better than the near-even split an R2K poll found a couple of weeks ago. But as Markos notes, D-Corps tested registered voters, while R2K looked at likely voters. (D)

• NH-Sen: ARG, mateys! The New Hampshire-based pollsters find that Republican AG Kelly Ayotte is keelhauling Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes in the Senate race, although with lots of undecideds: 41-34. This is their first look at the Ayotte/Hodes matchup. (UPDATE: Oh, come on… I just noticed that ARG also has Barack Obama’s NH approval at 34/57 and even Gov. John Lynch at 37/40. So take this poll with a mighty hunk o’ pirate salt.) Also today, Ayotte’s primary opposition is lining up. Businessman Jim Bender says he’s forming an exploratory committee, and Ovide Lamontagne is setting up a testing-the-waters 527 to raise funds.

• NV-Sen: Former state GOP chair, former one-term state Senator, former co-owner of the Sahara casino, and former Miss New Jersey 1973 Sue Lowden (and former Reid donor, back in the 1980s) is officially in the race against Harry Reid. Democrats are pointing to her close ties to John Ensign, while even tradmed pundits like Chris Cillizza are left wondering if her resume is “somewhat thin” for the task of going against Reid.

• VT-Gov: Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie announced today that he will run for the Republican nomination for the open gubernatorial race in Vermont. His previous silence on the issue since Jim Douglas’s retirement announcement had suggested he wasn’t going to run, but now apparently he’s all in. Dubie is socially conservative (at least by Vermont standards), so if he’s the standard bearer (and this probably means that recent party-switching Auditor Tom Salmon, who said he wouldn’t run if Dubie ran, won’t run now) that may improve Dem odds at picking up the seat. Of course, Dem odds mostly turn on what the Progressive Party does.

• GA-12: Two developments in the 12th, where Rep. John Barrow is already facing two Republicans (doctor and self-proclaimed top recruit Wayne Mosely, and Thunderbolt Fire Chief Carl Smith). A third GOPer, Savannah party activist Jeanne Seaver, is also getting into the field. And on Barrow’s left, former state Sen. Regina Thomas is considering another primary run. Although Blue Dog Barrow should theoretically be vulnerable to a challenge from an African-American Democrat in this almost half-black district, Thomas pulled in only 24% of the primary vote in a seemingly underfunded and underplanned challenge last year. (H/t TheUnknown285.)

• NC-11: This might be a slightly more imposing challenge to Rep. Heath Shuler than the guy who promised to serve only one term: Jeff Miller, a Hendersonville businessman who received a Presidential Citizens Medal for his work taking WWII veterans to Washington DC to see the WWII war memorial. Miller is “contemplating” the race.

• OR-05: Sad to say, it looks like we won’t have Mike Erickson to make fun of again next year; the GOP found a somewhat more viable challenger to freshman Rep. Kurt Schrader. State Rep. Scott Bruun says he’ll run; he says he has a “moderate middle sensibility” (which plays well in his wealthy corner of the Clackamas County suburbs, but may subject him to a primary challenge from elsewhere). Bruun ran in 1996 against Earl Blumenauer in the dark-blue 3rd and lost by a wide margin. Getting down into the weeds, his departure also opens up HD 37, the kind of suburban district that Democrats in the state legislature have been vacuuming up in the last few cycles.

• PA-04: Disregard what I said yesterday; don’t quite count out state House minority whip Mike Turzai yet. Despite the entry of lawyer Keith Rothfus to the GOP field yesterday, Turzai notified the media that he’s still considering a run against Rep. Jason Altmire, but is currently preoccupied by the budget stalemate in Harrisburg and will decide later.

• NH-Sen: Joe Biden will be on duty to help Paul Hodes (who hasn’t set the world on fire with his fundraising so far) at a DC fundraiser on Oct. 5.

• SC-Sen: Democrats appear to have a candidate with some financial heft to take on Sen. Jim DeMint next year. The Indigo Journal writes that Rock Hill attorney Chad McGowan recently told local Democrats that he’ll be running full-time for the Senate nomination beginning in early October. (J)

• CA-Gov: Looks like the period of meditation on the Governor’s race that Jerry Brown promised us didn’t take very long: he’s opening his exploratory committee today. Meanwhile, Meg Whitman managed to poach another member of the Steve Poizner camp; former state GOP chair and former Assembly minority leader Bob Naylor dropped his Poizner endorsement and switched to Whitman.

• NJ-Gov: Yet another pollster sees the same story developing in New Jersey (this time it’s Quinnipiac). The race is tightening to within the margin of error, but it’s not because Jon Corzine is getting much better (he’s still not breaking 40); instead, Chris Christie is slowly deflating, while moderate independent Chris Daggett gains. Today’s poll has Christie up 43-39-12, a definite improvement over last month’s 47-37-9.

• VA-Gov: Creigh Deeds is finally playing one of his aces in the hole: Sen. Mark Warner, who generally polls as by far the most popular political figure in the state, cut an ad for Deeds and will be campaiging for him on weekends. Deeds also got an endorsement which, superficially, seems like a big coup, but isn’t, really: former GOP governor Linwood Holton. (The moderate Holton is father-in-law to Tim Kaine and endorsed Barack Obama in 2008.)

• NH-02: It looks like ex-Rep. Charlie Bass is getting off the fence and moving closer to an effort to reclaim his old seat, which he lost to Paul Hodes in 2006 but will be an open seat in 2010. He’ll be opening his exploratory committee tomorrow. (Although — maybe this is a possible sign of ambivalence — he says he’s opening the committee because he needs somewhere by quarter’s end to put all the unsolicited checks he’s received lately, or else he’ll have to return them.) He’ll probably still face a primary against the more conservative 2008 candidate, Jennifer Horn, assuming he runs.

• NY-23: As expected, Gov. Paterson has set Nov. 3rd for the NY-23 special election, the same day as other elections in the state (such as the NYC mayoral race), and of course the gubernatorial races in NJ and VA. GOP candidate Dede Scozzafava also got an endorsement that falls into the “as expected” category: from the Main Street Partnership, the ideological caucus for the dwindling ranks of moderate House Republicans.

• PA-04, 08: Two sophomore Democrats in Pennsylvania both got Republican challengers. In the Pittsburgh suburbs’ R+6 4th, Keith Rothfus, a Republican lawyer and former Dept. of Homeland Security official, will challenge Rep. Jason Altmire. (Apparently the NRCC’s top recruit, state House minority whip Mike Turzai, has been balking so far.) Meanwhile, in the less challenging 8th in the Philly burbs, computer consultant Jeffrey Schott is slated to run against Rep. Patrick Murphy.

• CA-Sen: Politics Magazine takes a look at how the blowback from the launch of iCarly Fiorina’s new website continues from all ends of the political spectrum, including a nice dig from SSP’s own Ben Schaffer. As California’s right-wingers sputter, there were also rumors circulating at the state’s recent Republican convention that radio talk-show host Larry Elder — the conservatives’ preferred candidate, and someone who expressed interest in the race — got boxed out by the NRSC, who told him not to run.

• IN-Sen: 33-year-old state Sen. Marlin Stutzman launched his long-shot bid against Evan Bayh with some help from Rep. Mark Souder, who introduced Stutzman at his kickoff rally. The race already has some fourth-tier figures in it: businessmen Richard Behney and Don Bates. Grant County Commissioner Mark Bardsley, former state Rep. Dan Dumezich, and self-funding popcorn magnate Will Weaver are also considering the race.

• NH-Sen: Kelly Ayotte is taking this whole not-saying-anything-about-her-positions thing to an illogical extreme, refusing to say for whom she voted for Governor in 2006 and 2008. Primary opponents Ovide Lamontagne and Sean Mahoney were quick to announce that they voted for Jim Coburn and Joe Kenney — i.e. the guys who ran against Ayotte’s ex-boss, Democratic Gov. John Lynch.

• NY-Sen-B: Ed Cox, having secured his role as New York state GOP chair despite a push from Rudy Giuliani to install one of his own lieutenants in the role, is now trying to make nice with Giuliani, encouraging him to run for the Senate seat currently held by Kirsten Gillibrand instead of for Governor. Giuliani hasn’t been returning Cox’s calls, and insists via spokespersons that it’s Governor or nothing.

• AZ-01: Former state Senate majority leader Rusty Bowers has filed to form an exploratory committee to run against freshman Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick in the mostly-rural 1st. He’s been out of the legislature since 2001 and has been a lobbyist for the Arizona Rock Products Association since then.

• IL-07: Rep. Danny Davis, who previously seemed poised to bail out of his west Chicago seat and run for Cook County Board President, now seems to be dialing that back. Davis says he has the signatures collected to run for Board President “should [he] choose to do so.” He may be having some second thoughts now that he has a key seat on Ways and Means and also because the expected field-clearing for him in the Board race didn’t happen. With Illinois’s super-early February primary, he has until mid-November to  make up his mind. Alderwoman Sharon Dixon says she’s running in the primary in the 7th regardless of what Davis does, though; however, some other likely contenders, like state Rep. LaShawn Ford and state Sen. Rickey Hendon are in a holding pattern to see what Davis does.

• IL-14: The field to take on Rep. Bill Foster in the Chicago suburbs just keeps growing, with the addition of GOP state Sen. Randy Hultgren. His best-known opponent in the now five-way primary is lawyer Ethan Hastert.

• MI-11: Natalie Mosher is a fundraising consultant who’s the only person with a hat in the ring for the Dems to go up against Rep. Thad McCotter. She’s telling supporters via e-mail that she’s “very close” to being named to the DCCC’s Red to Blue program — although that seems to be news to the DCCC, who say that R2B decisions won’t be made for some time and they are still talking to other possible candidates.

• NV-03: Yesterday we reported that former state Sen. Joe Heck was content to stay in the GOP gubernatorial primary, rather than switching over to the NV-03 slot vacated by John Guedry’s withdrawal. However, since then, Heck has signaled more interest, saying he hasn’t ruled it out and is discussing it with his family. Heck could turn out to be a step up from the inexperienced Guedry (remember that Rep. Dina Titus was a replacement candidate as well in 2008, who turned out in the end to be a better bet).

• NY-13: Here’s a strange rumor: disgraced ex-Rep. Vito Fossella has been making public rounds, leading to speculation that he’s considering a comeback (although there’s no sense whether he’d try again for the 13th, or elsewhere).

• NY-23: The Watertown Daily Times has some juicy dirt on Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman, who apparently pledged his support to GOP candidate Dede Scozzafava shortly after he was passed over by the party in favor of her… and then shortly thereafter reached out to the Conservatives and got their nod. His defense is that he didn’t know just how “liberal” Scozzafava really was, despite that having been a main bone of contention even before her selection.

• NYC: With the primary runoff elections set for tonight, SurveyUSA has a final poll of the two races at issue: Public Advocate and Comptroller. For Public Advocate, city councilor Bill DeBlasio leads ex-PA Mark Green 49-42 (although DeBlasio narrowly won the primary, Green led every poll prior to it). And for Comptroller, Eric John Liu leads David Yassky 48-40 (both are city councilors). (Discussion of tonight’s main event is underway in Pan‘s diary.) Meanwhile, it looks like Barack Obama won’t be expending any political capital on the New York mayor’s race, unless it becomes clear William Thompson is closing the gap on Michael Bloomberg.

• NY-St. Sen.: The Erie County, NY DA’s office is the latest to join a bipartisan chorus calling for an investigation into the shady campaign finance practices of political consultant Steve Pigeon. As you may recall, Pigeon was the mastermind behind billionaire Tom Golisano’s attempted coup in the New York State Senate earlier this year. Pigeon is also buddy-buddy with Republican-turned-Dem Sen. Arlen Specter, and gets a $150,000 sinecure (completely above-board, I’m sure) as counsel to now-legendary scumbag Pedro Espada, Jr. (D)

• PA-St. Sen.: One other race to keep an eye on tonight, in addition to the NYC races: a state Senate election in the Philly suburbs. It’s a seat vacated by a Republican (who left to take a job with the Chamber of Commerce); Republican state Rep. Bob Mensch is considered to have the edge to hold the seat over Lansdale councilor Anne Scheuring (picked after better-known Dems took a pass), although Dems have spent considerably on the race. The district (the 24th) takes a bite out of the corners of four counties that went convincingly for Obama (Bucks, Montgomery, Lehigh, and Northampton) but it’s exurban turf and has a Republican registration advantage — which is exactly the kind of district that has bedeviled PA Dems at the legislative level but that the Dems need to pick up if they’re ever going to take over the state Senate. The GOP currently holds a 29-20 edge, plus this one vacancy.

A weirdly Senate-free version of the Digest…

• IL-Gov: State Rep. Jack Franks, a Democrat from exurban McHenry County, was a loud and frequent Rod Blagojevich critic, and he was considering parlaying that into a run in the Illinois governor’s primary against incumbent Pat Quinn. Franks just decided against it, though. (He does sound like he’s going for higher office in 2012, including a possible run against Rep. Don Manzullo in IL-16, a low-profile wingnut who’s gotten a free pass for almost two decades in a district that just went for Obama.) Meanwhile, Pat Quinn got another key union endorsement, from UNITE HERE’s Local 1 (giving him pretty much the big union trifecta, having already gotten the SEIU and Teamsters).

• MI-Gov: I can honestly say I didn’t see this coming; businessman Rick Snyder, who’s been polling in the low single digits in the GOP gubernatorial primary in Michigan, won a straw poll this weekend at a confab of party insiders on Mackinac Island. Snyder (who looks like he’s positioning himself as the ‘moderate’ in the race) got 31%, while AG Mike Cox and Oakland Co. Sheriff Mike Bouchard each got 24%.

• MN-Gov: Minnesota’s Democratic-Farmer-Labor just moved its statewide convention from June to late April. This change appears to be due in part to the expected shift in Minnesota’s primary from September to August (or earlier), thanks to a new federal law regarding the date by which absentee ballots for the general election must be mailed. The new convention date probably makes life a bit harder for candidates who are currently members of the state legislature, since the legislative session doesn’t end until May 17th, 2010. (D)

• OR-Gov: Up-and-coming Clackamas County Chairwoman Lynn Peterson was the subject of some gubernatorial speculation a few weeks ago, but now she’s declared that she won’t be running for the Democratic gubernatorial nod next year (despite her Facebook page saying otherwise).

• PA-Gov: AG Tom Corbett got another high-profile (if somewhat stale) endorsement in the GOP gubernatorial contest: Dick Thornburgh, Pennsylvania’s former governor and US Attorney General.

• IN-02: GOP St. Rep. Jackie Wolarski (who has earned the sobriquet “Wacky Jackie” for her right-wing views) turned down the NRCC’s entreaties for a run against Rep. Joe Donnelly in 2008, leaving them with the woeful Luke Puckett. However, she’s sounding more interested about a run in the R+2 2nd for 2010.

• NV-03: Back to the drawing board for the NRCC in Nevada: their touted recruit John Guedry, a deep-pocketed banker who announced his bid last month against freshman Rep. Dina Titus, withdrew from the race over the weekend, citing family concerns. They may turn to former Clark County GOP chair Brian Scroggins instead, who had considered the race. Former state Sen. Joe Heck could be another replacement, but he says he’s staying put in the GOP gubernatorial primary.

• NY-14: Our condolences to Rep. Carolyn Maloney and her family; her husband, Clifton Maloney, died while on a climbing expedition in the Himalayas, having just summitted the world’s sixth-highest peak.

• NY-23: More trouble for moderate GOP candidate Dede Scozzafava on her right flank: the Club for Growth has endorsed her Conservative opponent, Doug Hoffman (although they’d certainly telegraphed their intents, having released a poll showing him making it a 3-way race). Also, Hoffman got another boost among the social conservative set, via an endorsement from Fred Thompson (of 2008 presidential nap race fame). Democrat Bill Owens isn’t wasting any time; he’s up with his second TV spot of the campaign already.

• TN-03: Robin Smith, the leading GOP candidate to replace Zach Wamp, is claiming that Barack Obama personally called her “everything from racist to terrorist to extremist”. Smith, who served as chair of the Tennessee GOP during the last cycle, gained some previous notoriety for taking a hard run at Michelle Obama. The Smith campaign has yet to issue a retraction. (J)

• WV-01: Rep. Alan Mollohan, long-serving Democrat in northern West Virginia, has easily dispatched GOP opposition in his R+9 district over the decades. In 2010, it looks like he’ll face off against state Senate minority whip Clark Barnes. One glitch: although Barnes grew up in the 1st, his Randolph County residence and almost all of his Senate district are in the 2nd.

• Census: Sen. Robert Bennett of Utah — feeling the heat from the right in his primary — is introducing legislation to require the Census to ask a citizenship status question for purposes of apportionment. Such a bill is unlikely to gain any traction in a Democratic-controlled Congress.

• MA-Sen: A superior court judge today ruled that Deval Patrick did not overstep his authority by unilaterally declaring that there was an emergency that required immediate implementation of the new temporary Senate appointment law (instead of the usual waiting period). Bring on the usual Republican kvetching about judicial activism, but the judge did note that the GOP did “not cite any case law in support of its argument.” (Another interesting tidbit: Mitt Romney used his “emergency” power 14 times while in office, including to raise the boating speed limit in Charlton.) At any rate, this frees up Paul Kirk to be sworn in by Joe Biden this afternoon as the Bay State’s junior senator until January.

• CA-Sen: Carly Fiorina has unleashed her killer app: her new website, titled “Carlyfornia Dreamin’.” Unfortunately, the only killing that seems to be going on here is of her own credibility, as both Democrats and conservative Republicans alike are aghast at the site’s… well… vapidity. It’s more fuel for the fire for conservatives left wondering what — if, as rumored, Fiorina isn’t going to self-fund, her one potential advantage — she brings to the table.

• KY-Sen: Following his latest “moneybomb” (Sep. 23, timed to coincide with Trey Grayson’s DC fundraiser with much of the GOP Senate establishment), Rand Paul says he’s raised more than $900K this quarter and expects to report $1 million at month’s end.

• AZ-Gov: Fresh from posting godawful numbers in this week’s PPP poll, Jan Brewer is already facing her first Republican primary opponent: Paradise Valley mayor Vernon Parker. Parker, who was the Bush administration’s Asst. Sec. of Agriculture for Civil Rights, is African-American; Phoenix suburb Paradise Valley is small (pop. 13,000) but the state’s wealthiest place (2000 MHI $150K).

• CA-Gov: With stories dogging Fiorina and Linda McMahon for their spotty voting records, now it’s Meg Whitman’s turn in the spotlight. A Sacramento Bee investigation finds that her failing to vote “on a few occasions,” as she’s previously said, actually means “almost always,” with little record of voting or even registration in the six states and dozen counties where she’s lived.

• MI-Gov: Moderate businessman Rick Snyder, who’s languishing in the low single digits in the polls in the GOP gubernatorial field in Michigan, got a high-profile endorsement yesterday: from Bill Ford, chairman of Ford Motors.

• NV-Gov: CREW has filed an ethics complaint against ex-AG, ex-federal judge Brian Sandoval, who recently quit his judgeship to move to the Republican gubernatorial primary (against DOA incumbent Jim Gibbons). There are strict prohibitions against political activity by the federal judiciary, but he may have had conservations with political consultants who then included him in polling, which could have crossed the line.

• PA-Gov: In the Pennsylvania Republican primary in the open seat governor’s race, conservative AG Tom Corbett got a big endorsement from moderate ex-Gov. Tom Ridge. Meanwhile, the moderate option in the primary, Rep. Jim Gerlach, unveiled a rather less impressive endorsement: conservative ex-Rep. John Peterson.

• KS-03: Steve Rose, the Republican publisher of the Johnson County Sun, announced last week that he’d run for the House against Rep. Dennis Moore. Today, he’s already out of the race, citing health reasons.

• DGA: Another sign of Barack Obama’s increasing engagement with the gubernatorial sphere (after the row over his involvement in the New York race): he’s headlining a DGA fundraiser in DC on Oct. 1 expected to raise at least $500K.

• House: An interesting lawsuit was filed in federal court this week, demanding that the size of the House be increased. The crux is the disparity between, say, WY-AL with less than 500K residents and MT-AL with more than 900K residents; the suit invokes the “one person one vote” requirement with its roots in Baker v. Carr, but that’s never been applied across state lines, only to equalizing districts within a state. It’ll be interesting to see how far this gets. (By the way, Tom Schaller looks at how a bigger House would create a small partisan advantage for the Dems in the Electoral College. No discussion on whether it would lead to a bigger advantage in the House, although that would obviously turn on how the new smaller districts get gerrymandered into existence.)

• WATN?: The Abramoff investigation may finally take down ex-Rep. John Doolittle, who was just named as a co-conspirator by federal prosecutors in the corruption case of former aide Kevin Ring.

• Pollsters: The American Association for Public Opinion Research took the unusal step yesterday of reprimanding Strategic Vision, LLC (the one whose polls you often see here… not to be confused with well-thought-of market research firm Strategic Vision, Inc.) for failing to respond to requests for basic information about the make-up of their polls. Pollster.com’s Mark Blumenthal had previously flagged SV for suspicious behavior.

• AZ-Sen (pdf): John McCain is probably safe for re-election in 2010. PPP released the second half of their Arizona sample, and find McCain beating two strong opponents who seem to have no intention of running anyway: Sec. of Homeland Security and ex-Gov. Janet Napolitano (53-40) and Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (57-30). He also leads Tucson city councilor Rodney Glassman, who is at least a rumored candidate, 55-25. McCain only has 48/42 approvals, but with kind of a bipartisan spin: an unusually low 65% of Republicans approve, while an unusually high 32% of Democrats approve.

• IL-Sen: Facing some unrest on the right flank, the RNC’s Michael Steele has withdrawn sole support from Rep. Mark Kirk in the Illinois Senate GOP primary, according to the Chicago Observer. He’s back to a neutral position, which certainly counts as a victory for Patrick Hughes, who’s been gaining some momentum at coalescing the party’s right-wing. Considering how Kirk acted when Andy McKenna was going to run, is another temper tantrum in the offing? On the Dem side, Alexi Giannoulias got the endorsement of the SEIU, which led his new rival, former Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman, to “go there,” invoking the specter of Rod Blagojevich, who was elected via SEIU support.

• NH-Sen: This isn’t going at all according to plan for Kelly Ayotte (or the NRSC). Yet another random rich GOPer is showing up to scope out the Senate race, the third in a week. Today it’s Jim Bender, an investor who used to be the CEO of Logicraft in the 1990s.

• OH-Sen: Everyone forgets about wealthy auto dealer Tom Ganley in the GOP primary in Ohio against establishment pick Rob Portman, probably because he doesn’t have a built-in constituency. Looks like he’s trying to hook up with the teabaggers as a result, positioning himself as a populist alternative to the free-trading Portman. Ganley is also getting some help from a Republican insider: an endorsement from Bay Buchanan (sister of Pat), pleased by Ganley’s anti-immigrant rhetoric.

• WV-Sen: Looks like Robert Byrd’s stay in the hospital was a lot shorter than his stint this spring; he was released today.

• GA-Gov: Strategic Vision looks at the primary fields in the Georgia governor’s race, and finds not much has changed since last time. For the Dems, ex-Gov. Roy Barnes is at 45%, with Thurbert Baker at 30, David Poythress at 5, and Dubose Porter at 2. (It was 45-29 last month.) For the GOP, Insurance Comm. John Oxendine leads at 38, with Karen Handel at 15, Nathan Deal at 10, and four other guys in single digits. (Oxendine was at 39 last month, although Deal was in 2nd last month at 13, so maybe he took a minor hit from that corruption probe.) No head-to-heads yet, unfortunately.

• MI-Gov: Here’s another poll of a potentially exciting gubernatorial race, but primaries only. An Inside Michigan Politics finds a tight GOP primary, with AG Mike Cox in the lead at 27, followed by Rep. Pete Hoekstra at 23 and Oakland Co. Sheriff Mike Bouchard at 15 (with businessman Rick Snyder and state Sen. Tom George each at 2). Lt. Gov. John Cherry is at 40 in the Dem primary with only light opposition from state Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith (9) and former state Rep. John Freeman (8). A March poll from the same pollster had Cox at 17 and Hoekstra at 15 (but both losing to Oakland Co. Exec L. Brooks Patterson, who isn’t running).

• NJ-Gov: Two very different pictures from partisan pollsters of the New Jersey governor’s race out there. First comes one from Democracy Corps, who have the race as close as anyone has had it since early spring: Chris Christie leads Jon Corzine and Chris Daggett 40-39-11, and Christie has net negative favorables for the first time, at 32/34. (Their poll two weeks ago had Christie up 41-38-10.) The other is Strategic Vision, who see Christie up 46-38-8. Still an improvement from their last poll in July: 53-38-5… like most pollsters, they see Corzine essentially unable to move up, but succeeding in dragging Christie’s numbers down. One more bucket of mud for Corzine to throw at Christie arrived yesterday: news that Christie owned stock in Cendant Corp. at the same time as he was investigating them through the US Attorney’s office.

• NY-Gov, NY-Sen-B (pdf): Marist has a poll out that finds New Yorkers thinking that Barack Obama should butt out of New York governor’s race, by a 62-27 margin. Nevertheless, only 25% think David Paterson should run next year (63% say no); they just want him to arrive at that decision on his own. While the poll doesn’t contain gubernatorial matchups (not that we need any more of them), it does have some Senate numbers, confirming other local pollsters, finding the not-running Rudy Giuliani beating Kirsten Gillibrand 51-40 and the probably-not-running George Pataki beating Gillibrand 45-41.

Meanwhile, the NYT has a profile of a rather melancholy Paterson, saying “I didn’t sign up for this.” They also have a quote that could be seen as hopeful that he may still bail out on seeking another term: “if I got to a point where I thought that my candidacy was hurting my party, obviously it would be rather self-absorbed to go forward.” (Unless he’s made peace with just being self-absorbed.) If you’re wondering what’s taking him so long to make a decision, though, Josh Goodman has a nice pithy summary of the decisionmaking process, not just for Paterson, but all the race’s players:

Paterson thinks he can beat Lazio, but not Giuliani, so he doesn’t want to decide whether he’s running until Giuliani makes up his mind. Giuliani thinks he can beat Paterson, but not Cuomo, so he doesn’t want to decide whether he’s running until Cuomo makes up his mind. Cuomo thinks he can beat anyone, but doesn’t want the messiness of a primary battle, so he doesn’t want to decide whether he’s running until Paterson makes up his mind.

• VA-Gov: It looked briefly like ex-Gov. Doug Wilder might endorse Creigh Deeds after all, but today he backed down and said he won’t endorse. Wilder also leveled some criticism at Deeds for proposing tax increases to fix northern Virginia’s increasingly dire transportation problems. It’s a wtf? moment from the mercurial Wilder, whose endorsement would do a lot to move African-American turnout for Deeds, where he hasn’t generated much excitement yet.

• MO-04: No surprise here, but state Sen. Bill Stouffer made it official that he’ll be taking on 17-term Dem incumbent Ike Skelton in the dark-red 4th. Christian Right former state Rep. Vicky Hartzler is already in the race; Stouffer, however, seems to be working more of a fiscal discipline angle.

• PA-07: While state Rep. Bryan Lentz seems to have the inside track on the Dem nomination (despite no formal announcement), another Democrat is getting in the race: Teresa Touey, a political consultant who has worked for Joe Sestak and Ted Kennedy. One problem for her, though: although she is a native of the 7th, she’s been living in Massachusetts since the early 1990s.

• NYC-Mayor: Quinnipiac finds mayoral results in line with just about everybody else: incumbent Michael Bloomberg leads Dem comptroller William Thompson 52-36, with Conservative Party candidate Stephen Christopher pulling in 2.

• Redistricting: Roll Call has a detailed piece on how the parties are ramping up financially for the post-2010 redistricting fights. A new 501(c)(4), euphemistically titled Making America’s Promise Secure, with Newt Gingrich and Trent Lott among its founders, will be coordinating the effort (since campaign reform passed since 2002 prevents the RNC from using soft money to spearhead the effort now). The DCCC’s counterpart is the National Democratic Redistricting Trust, although a 527, the equally euphemistic Foundation for the Future, looks like it’ll do the financial heavy lifting.

• CT-Sen: Pro wrestling CEO Linda McMahon is apparently doing the things that normal candidates do when running for office, starting with her first radio ad. However, she’s already having to acknowledge that she hasn’t done a good job recently of doing another thing that normal politicians do, which is vote. She skipped the 2006 general election (the same year in which she donated $10K to the DCCC) and also the 2008 GOP primary.

• DE-Sen: There are a couple of interesting rumors that Delaware scribe Ron Williams (who doesn’t have the highest batting average out there) examines: one is that Beau Biden may run for AG again instead of Senate. (However, Williams seems to debunk that rumor, using some pretty definite phrasing in saying that “AG Biden will soon announce his candidacy for the U.S. Senate seat…” and also saying that Mike Castle is unlikely to want to run against Biden.) Meanwhile, there are rumors that the state’s other Senator, Tom Carper, is having some health problems and may not seek re-election in 2012. Carper himself denies the rumor, though, saying he’s fine. New Castle County Exec Chris Coons gets flagged as a likely Carper successor, though.

• MA-Sen: The bill to allow a temporary appointed Senator to fill Ted Kennedy’s seat until the Jan. 19 special election cleared another hurdle yesterday, passing the state Senate 24-16. A reconciled version still has to pass both houses but could do so today, so conceivably we could have a Deval Patrick signature today too. The momentum today seems to be with former DNC chair Paul Kirk, not Michael Dukakis for the appointment; Kennedy’s widow Victoria and sons Patrick and Teddy Jr. now all publicly back Kirk for the job (Kirk now chairs the JFK Presidential Library).

Meanwhile, former Red Sox rightie (although he’ll always be a Phillie to me) Curt Schilling says he won’t run for Senate. However, City Year head Alan Khazei made his entry into the race, on the Democratic side, official today.

• CA-Gov: Two decidedly unsurprising developments: ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman formally “opened” her Republican candidacy with a rally and her first ads (although technically she’s been running since February), while AG Jerry Brown opened an exploratory committee for the Dem nod.

• NJ-Gov: Yet another poll of the New Jersey governor’s race shows Chris Christie with a sizable lead, although Jon Corzine does break through that 40% ceiling that’s been plaguing him. Rasmussen shows Christie ahead of Corzine 48-41, with independent Chris Daggett at 6%. Rasmussen’s previous look in early September pegged it at 46-38. And if there’s any doubt about what Jon Corzine’s last-ditch strategy is for winning this thing, check out this picture of his new billboard.

• VA-Gov: After a bit of post-debate waffling on the issue last week, Creigh Deeds came out in favor of new taxes to fund transportation projects. Promising to raise taxes is always a risky strategy, but given how paralyzed northern Virginia is, taxes to build infrastructure might actually be a winner in that part of the state. Also, Josh Goodman has a thoughtful piece on Deeds’ belated momentum in the polls: it’s a delayed reaction to the Bob McDonnell thesis, as it took a while to trickle down, via negative ads, to the non-WaPo-reading rabble.

• AR-04: It’s looking like the scandal surrounding Blue Dog Mike Ross, concerning his sale of a $263K pharmacy to the USA Drug chain (which is actively lobbying in the health care debate) for $420K, may have some legs. Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington filed a complaint with the Justice Department asking for an investigation if there was a quid pro quo. Ross is busy attacking the messenger, calling ProPublica.com (which broke the story) a “leftist” organization.

• NY-23: The NRCC is up with a radio ad in the 23rd, and Dede Scozzafava’s camp seems flummoxed by it, to the extent that her spokesperson publicly asked the NRCC to save its money instead of spending it this way. The ad spends most of its time attacking Dem Bill Owens, trying to link him to Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi, with only a brief mention of Scozzafava’s positive qualities at the end. Scozzafava already questioned the NRCC’s airing of an anti-Darrel Aubertine ad when it looked like he’d be the candidate, and in a weird development, the NRCC’s website features a link to a story from Human Events questioning whether Scozzafava is too liberal. Not exactly what we’d call “teamwork.” Meanwhile, Bill Owens just got the endorsement of the regional SEIU, ordinarily a foregone conclusion for a Democrat but maybe not a sure thing with labor-friendly Scozzafava in the mix.  

• SC-01: Carroll “Tumpy” (his actual nickname) Campbell III made it official; he’ll be challenging Henry “Smoky” (that’s just our unofficial nickname for him) Brown in the GOP primary. The challenge from the son of the popular governor may prod the rather lackadaisical 73-year-old Brown into retirement.

• VA-02: Democratic freshman Rep. Glenn Nye got a sixth potential GOP opponent, in the form of Scott Taylor, a businessman, former Virginia Beach mayoral candidate, and former Navy SEAL. Taylor isn’t even the only former Navy SEAL running (so too is Ed Maulbeck); other GOPers are auto dealer Scott Rigell, Army Reserve Brig. Gen. Bert Mizusawa, businessman Ben Loyola, and former local GOP chair Chuck Smith. Although Nye’s R+5 district poses a theoretical challenge, note that none of his challengers has held elective office.

• Mayors: Boston mayor Tom Menino, who’s been in office for 16 years, had the weakest electoral showing of his mayoral career in yesterday’s primary election, pulling in 50.5% of the vote against a fractured field. He’ll face off in November against city councilor Michael Flaherty, who finished second with 24%. Flaherty, who is also an insider, doesn’t present as much as a contrast with Menino as the candidates who fell by the wayside.

• AR-Sen: Because you can never have too many wingnuts: yet another unknown Republican is piling into the GOP field in the Arkansas Senate race, financial adviser Buddy Rogers. At his announcement today, Rogers was introduced by, and is apparently something of a stand-in for, Benton County Judge and former state Sen. Dave Bisbee, who’s an arch-enemy of state Sen. Gilbert Baker, who’s already in the race.

• CA-Sen: The DSCC has launched a web ad going after Carly Fiorina’s disastrous tenure at Hewlett-Packard, especially her $21.5 million severance package and 18,000 layoffs. Conservative Assemblyman Chuck DeVore is still hanging in there in the GOP primary, though, and got a helpful endorsement from the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, who carry on the legacy of the 1970s anti-property tax crusader upon whom much of the blame for California’s current condition can be directed.

• IL-Sen: Although Rep. Mark Kirk has been accorded front-runner status in the Illinois GOP Senate primary, he has at least half a dozen minor opponents, and real estate developer Patrick Hughes seems to be getting the most attention of them; Kirk has been trying to move to the right to shore up that flank, as seen in his contorted waffling on cap and trade several weeks ago. Hughes has released an internal poll that shows, well, mostly very high undecideds, but with Kirk not in terribly commanding position. In a head-to-head, Kirk leads Hughes 24-11. In the seven-person field, Kirk gets 23% (no number for Hughes, though… gee, I wonder why?).

• MA-Sen: With Republican procedural stalling tactics having gotten exhausted, the state Senate is taking up debate today on the issue of revising state law to allow a temporary appointment to fill Ted Kennedy’s seat. The House has already passed the measure, and both chambers could be in agreement by tomorrow. The Boston Globe endorsed former Governor Mike Dukakis for the short-term position.

• WV-Sen: 91-year-old Robert Byrd has returned to the hospital today after a fall at his home. A spokesman says he was being checked out and unlikely to be admitted to the hospital, though.

• NJ-Gov: When we left off yesterday, Independent Chris Daggett had joined a suit by a libertarian candidate challenging New Jersey’s ballot placement laws. However, yesterday, a superior court judge refused to expedite the case, meaning it won’t be heard until after November, leaving major-party candidates Jon Corzine and Chris Christie in the positions at the top of the ballot.

• NY-Gov (pdf): I’m not sure why the New York governor’s race is so heavily polled, since the numbers don’t change much, but I guess people like gawking at train wrecks. It’s Siena’s turn today; they find David Paterson’s approval at 29/59, with a re-elect of 14%. Paterson loses a primary to Andrew Cuomo 66-20. In a general, Paterson loses to Rudy Giuliani 52-35, but beats Rick Lazio 39-35, while Cuomo beats Giuliani 52-39 and Lazio 64-18. Also, while it’s clear Giuliani isn’t running for Senate, he’d be competitive if he did, beating Kirsten Gillibrand 46-38.

• TN-08: Rep. John Tanner has drawn GOP competition that doesn’t sound that impressive on paper — Steve Fincher is a farmer who also travels Tennessee with his family gospel singing group. But Fincher at least has access to money, as he says he’ll report more than $100K in donations at month’s end.

• NY-LG: In a surprise decision, New York’s Court of Appeals (the state’s highest court) upheld David Paterson’s appointment of Richard Ravitch as Lt. Governor, in a 4-3 vote (the 3 against were all Pataki appointees). The state Constitution is vague on the LG issue, but Paterson was the first Governor to try to appoint an LG instead of leaving the spot vacant. This finally brings some stability back into New York’s politics (which devolved into chaos with a state Senate coup over summer) by giving a tie-breaking vote to Senate Dems in case there’s another defection, and maybe more importantly, enabling Paterson to resign to take a nice comfy ambassadorship somewhere without turning control of the state over to Pedro Espada Jr.