Tag: Louisiana

Southern Media and Opinion Research has the first poll of the year for the Democrats’ biggest defensive target up in 2008, the Louisiana Senate seat held by Mary Landrieu.  In a hypothetical matchup between Sen. Landrieu and recently-elected Republican Secretary of State Jay Dardenne, they come up with this snapshot (Jan. 12-14, likely voters):

Mary Landrieu (D-Inc.): 53
Jay Dardenne (R): 38
MoE: ±4%

The poll also notes that Dardenne (who, at this point, is only one of several possible challengers to Landrieu) has a name-recognition of two-thirds in the state.  It’s nice to see Landrieu in the lead, but this it’s still way too early to get a feel for this race.  As the polling firm notes, on paper, Dardenne seems to be a fairly good challenger–already enjoying good statewide name recognition (but still with some room to grow), and 15 points is by no means an insurmountable gap at this stage in the game.  Still, in light of all of the disastrous polls showing Gov. Kathleen Blanco (D) trailing Rep. Bobby Jindal (R) in the 2007 Governor’s race by as much as 24 points, it’s nice to know that the state may not ready for a complete Democratic purge just yet.  Republicans will still wisely throw everything that they have at this one, though.

(Hat-tip to rob.)

Race Tracker:  LA-Sen

Since Republican Cong. Charles Boustany has now ruled out a race against incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu of Louisiana it appears that she may be in better shape for another term than was originally thought. A January poll published today in the Advocate shows that she leads Republican challenger Jay Dardenne by a wide margin. The Louisiana race has been of much concern to Democratic insiders because of the loss of hundreds of thousands of voters who relocated to other states after Hurricane Katrina.

http://bluesunbelt.c…

The following is a diary Mike Stagg, who ran for the House in LA-07 last November, posted at MyDD on Friday, only to have it pushed aside by all the Presidential diaries.  After we lost one LA State House seat last weekend, I believe we should try to support Langhoff, whether it be through volunteering, contributing or blogging.  Here is Mike’s dairy, and I will try to write more at another time.  Although Mike works with the Langhoff campaign, I do not; I just support her candidacy. 

Deborah Langhoff, you may recall from my other diaries, is a Democrat running for a seat recently vacated by a Republican.  Because Republicans plan on sweeping all statewide and legislative offices this year, we really need to win this seat.  Langhoff’s main Republican opponent in the open primary is Jeb Bruneau, the son of Republican Peppi Bruneau, who evacuated this seat on short notice in order to create a short special election cycle to the benefit of his son.  Langhoff is a grassroots organizer who has the chance to win this seat, and I ask everyone to support her and her really promising campaign.

Anyone interested in seeing the Republican game plan for 2007 unveiled should keep their eye on the special election in House District 94 where Democrat Deborah Langhoff has emerged as a threat to win the seat.

Langhoff, who has won endorsements from the Greater New Orleans AFL-CIO and the New Orleans Coalition, has been warned in recent days that she is about to become the subject of a smear campaign. How did she learn of this? From Republicans (including at least one candidate) who wanted her to know that they “had nothing to do” with what is, allegedly about to happen.

Element One of the 2007 GOP Game Plan: Crank Up the Slime Machine! No doubt money from the Louisiana Committee for a Republican Majority is not far removed from this effort.

Then, today, Jeb Bruneau — the designated heir apparent for whose benefit this special election was engineered (thanks to his daddy’s resignation from the seat) rolled out a mailer touting an endorsement from the leading Republican candidate for governor — Bobby Jindal. Poor Jeb! Bobby’s probably telling him how to run his campaign now! 😉

The mailer looks more like a Jindal piece than a Bruneau piece. No 
doubt Jindal approved it.

Element Two of the 2007 GOP Game Plan: Create an air of inevitability. This, actually, is out of the Karl Rove playbook. Work the media, tout your internal poll numbers (that you won’t let anyone see) or the numbers of a friendly pollster who will skew things your way. Try to depress voter turnout among Democrats by creating a defeatist attitude.

But, the Langhoff campaign is going to unveil a Democratic template of its own. It’s called Fighting Back!

If/when the smear comes, Deborah and her team will come out fighting, slamming the Republican slime machine, calling them out on their cynicism, their reliance on manipulation of process and people in a deceitful effort to retain/gain power at all costs.

Deborah needs your help NOW! There are nine days until the primary. 

The wheels are coming off the Bruneau campaign. The Alliance for Good Government, of which Jeb Bruneau is a member, endorsed another candidate. Deborah’s direct mail campaign has slammed the blatant manipulation of the election process by Peppi Bruneau with the intent of benefitting Jeb — and people are responding. Why are they responding? Because they recognize the attempted manipulation and Deborah has had the courage to call the Bruneaus on it.

As you know, Republicans have targeted at least 37 House seats currently held by Democrats for Republican takeover this fall. They don’t believe they have a single vulnerable seat.

Democrats have a chance to take that seat through Deborah Langhoff’s inspiring campaign.

We can knock their alleged juggernaut off the tracks before it even gets rolling — IF YOU WILL HELP DEBORAH’S CAMPAIGN!!!

Go here: Deborah Langhoff’s website

Make a contribution — even if you don’t live in the district. If you live in or near the district, make a contribution and get involved directly in the campaign. Volunteer to phone bank or walk neighborhoods.

Republicans have big plans for Louisiana that start in 2008. As John Lennon said: “Life is what happens while you’re busy making plans.” Victories are won that way, too. We can upset those GOP plans by working together in 2007.

Help Deborah Langhoff resist the Swiftboating of her campaign! It’s a preview of what Democrats across this state are going to face this fall.

Help fight it NOW!!!

Special open primaries for the remainder of the terms to end in November for LA-HD1, LA-HD4 and LA-HD40 have been held today.  Polls close at 8pm CST in Louisiana, and returns should be available immediately thereafter.

Here is how the ballot appears for all three races:

State Representative, 1st Representative District
0 of 31 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
0  0% Michael Page Boyter, R –
0  0% Richard “Richie” Hollier, D –
0  0% Ruth W. Johnston, D –
0  0% “Jim” Morris, R –
0  0% Marc Weddleton, R –

State Representative, 4th Representative District
0 of 26 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
0  0% Larry Ferdinand, D –
0  0% Reginald Johnson, D –
0  0% Calvin “Ben” Lester, Jr., D –
0  0% Patrick C. Williams, D –

State Representative, 40th Representative District
0 of 43 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
0  0% “Jim” Darby, D –
0  0% “Chris” Declouette, D –
0  0% Elbert Lee Guillory, D –
0  0% “Bradford” Jackson, N –
0  0% Roderick “Rod” James, D –
0  0% Ledricka Johnson, D –

LA-HD4 and LA-HD40 are seats guaranteed for Louisiana Democrats.  LA-HD4 is centered around Shreveport, and it extends into some of the more rural portions of Caddo Parish.  A district with an African-American majority, LA-HD4 was previously held by Cedric Glover, who is now the first African-American Mayor of Shreveport.  Larry Ferdinand and Patrick Williams, who received the endorsement of the Shreveport Times, the major local newspaper, are considered the favorites in this race, and I imagine they will face each other in a runoff.  Whoever wins LA-HD4 will hold this seat in November, as Democrats outnumber Republicans in this district by very high numbers.

LA-HD40 is also guaranteed for the Democrats.  This seat, centered around Opelousas in St. Landry Parish, was previously held by Don Cravins, Jr., who ran for and won the Louisiana Senate seat vacated by his father, Don Cravins, Sr., who is now Mayor of Opelousas.  This district is both an African-American and Democratic majority district, and whoever wins it will most probably hold it in November.  The Daily World, the major local newspaper, chose not to endorse any of the six candidates.  Turnout for this election is approximately 16%, and reporters are anticipating a runoff between two of the six candidates.

LA-HD1, however, is not guaranteed for the Democrats.  Although it was previously held by a Democrat named Roy “Hoppy” Hopkins, who recently died of cancer, this open seat can be won by either party.  Indeed, the district has a tendency to vote for Republicans in federal races: John Kerry only received 32.28% of the vote in 2004; Kathleen Blanco received 44.15% of the vote in 2003; and Mary Landrieu received approximately 45.34% of the vote in 2002.  A populist Democrat who understand agricultural and infrastructural issues can win in this district that includes rural Caddo and Bossier Parishes, but it will be a difficult seat for Democrats to hold in November. 

Richie Hollier, a Democrat who is running for office for the first time, has a strong grasp of the issues facing this district, and he has traveled throughout the district in order to hear its constituents’ needs.  Ruth Johnston, an Oil City resident who has served as Justice for the Peace, an elected office, for 18 years, is a former restaurant owner who desires to make government and the legislative process more accessible to the residents of the first district.  Both of these Democrats will face stiff competition from “Jim” Morris, a Caddo Parish Commissioner, who has received key endorsements from other Republicans in the district as well as the endorsement of the Shreveport Times, the major local newspaper.  Morris believes problems with Louisiana’s public school system will be solved with the introduction of prayer into the classroom, which leads me to wonder how an editorial board can endorse his candidacy in the open primary.  The other Republicans are not considered viable: Marc Weddleton just moved to the area two years ago, and Boyter is a regular gadfly whose platform is marijuana rights.

Turnout for LA-HD1 has been very low: only 100 ballots were cast during the early voting period in all of Caddo Parish, which also includes the race for the open seat of LA-HD4.  Moreover, Caddo and neighboring DeSoto Parish have been under a tornado watch all afternoon.  And while one would believe this would depress turnout, some claim it may increase it in some areas.  But turnout overall has varied from 2% to 16%.

LA-HD1 is what I consider to be a bellwether race.  If we hold it, we will hold the Louisiana House in November.  If we lose it, then we need to prepare ourselves for the fight of our political lives in November.  Watch the returns of this race, as this race will determine how hard Louisiana Democrats will have to fight if they want to hold on to their majorities in the state legislature.  And if we lose LA-HD1, then capturing LA-HD94, the special election for which will be held on 10 March, will be mandatory.  That can be done by supporting Deborah Langhoff.

The returns should be available at 8:30pm CST.

(The importance of holding on to what we can in Louisiana is critical. This will be a make-or-break year for Louisiana Democrats. Are we ready? – promoted by James L.)

Having had penned multiple diaries on Louisiana politics and the plight of the Democratic party in my state here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here and here, I am elated Thomas F. Schaller of Whistling Past Dixie fame has written this 20 FEB 2007 article for Salon.com on the GOP’s planned 2007 sweep of Louisiana.  The situation is grim, and the graphic accompanying his article, a blue Louisiana in the process of being delaminated into a red Louisiana, aptly summarizes the state of affairs in my state.

Here are some of the key passages from Schaller’s article, key passages I hope will compel my readers to begin participating in the mobilization project on behalf of Louisiana Democrats I am trying to enact here and elsewhere in the blogosphere:

“The polls show him [Bobby Jindal] ahead big.” Not surprisingly, state Republicans are licking their chops. “The GOP is very organized and aggressively fundraising,” says a top Louisiana Democrat, who asked not to be named. “They will be well financed and looking to use a big gubernatorial win [in 2007] to catapult other GOP wins down ballot.” Louisiana is, in short, perhaps the only state in the nation where George W. Bush’s policies may end up creating a permanent Republican majority.

In fact, however, Louisiana was trending away from Democrats even before the hurricane. Bill Clinton carried the state in both 1992 and 1996. But Al Gore — who spent little time there, despite the fact that his campaign manager, Donna Brazile, knows the state’s politics better than almost anyone — received just 45 percent of the vote in 2000. Four years later John Kerry slipped to 42 percent. So recently a swing state, Louisiana will be on neither party’s 2008 target list.

Notice how the second paragraph establishes a causal connection between the national Democratic party’s lack of investment in Louisiana and the state’s rightward trend.  Somehow the fifty-state strategy of Dr. Dean flew over Louisiana, and state Democrats on the local, state and federal level are paying dearly.  And 2007 will be no different.  All statewide, executive offices are on the ballot, as is the entire state legislature, and I have written many diaries that are cited above on the 2007 situation.  Republicans can sweep both state legislative chambers and control redistricting after the 2010 census, lending them the opportunity to gerrymander districts to the favor of the Republicans.  And if a Republican governor in Bobby Jindal is elected, the gerrymander will be especially damaging to Democrats, as he and Sen. David Vitter (R) have been planning the 2007 collapse of the Louisiana Democratic Party for many years.  Discussion of this latest installment of the Southern Strategy can be found in the diaries I cite above, which contain links to other writers who have elaborated on the cynicism undergirding the Republicans’ power grab in Louisiana.

So Schaller has alerted a broader audience of a problem about which I have been writing for at least three months.  What can be done?  Will we bring the fight to the Louisiana GOP?  Or will we allow them to steamroll over our state? 

The first step would be donating to a grassroots Democratic candidate who is running in a special election to be held on 10 March for Louisiana House District Seat 94, a seat vacated by a Republican named Peppi Bruneau, who has held that seat since 1974.  I have penned a long article about this race here, noting how the grassroots, Democratic challenger, Deborah Langhoff, who in my opinion is an excellent candidate we should all support, has a real chance at winning this race.  Her strongest opponent, Jeb Bruneau, Peppi Bruneau’s son, has raised a lot of money with the help of his father and lobbyists in Baton Rouge.  But the cynicism of his father’s last minute retirement has upset voters in District 94, and this gives Langhoff a chance to win this race with her compelling message of governmental reform and change.  

Langhoff’s race is important, as this is one of the first competitive races in 2007.  With the entire legislature up for reelection in November,  a Langhoff victory will send the Louisiana GOP a signal that they have a very big fight on their hands if they want to change this state red.  It will also give beleaguered voters the hope that they will have representatives in Baton Rouge who understand their plight.  

Louisiana, as many of you may recall, was a swing state in 2000.  Clinton won the state in 1992 and 1996, and Mary Landrieu managed to eke out wins for her Senate seat in 1996 and 2002.  If Louisiana falls to the GOP, Arkansas will be the only Democratic leaning state in the South, and the GOP will eventually focus their efforts there.  We must stop the Southern Strategy, and this begins with supporting Deborah Langhoff now.  

Schaller claims that John Breaux, who may run for Governor, may be the only hope for the Louisiana Democratic Party.  Perhaps he is.  But we can also help out by participating in races such as LA-HD94 that may at first seem very insignificant.

Expect more diaries on Louisiana politics.  If the GOP sweeps the state, our displaced residents will most probably never be able to return home.  The GOP has been cynically exploiting Katrina and Rita for political gain, and it is incumbent upon us to inform them that we as citizens will not allow them to destroy a wonderful state in order to expand their political power.  I hope you will join me on behalf of this beautiful albeit struggling state.  And please accept my apologies for the rushed diary.

The ballot for the 10 March open primary for the open Louisiana State House District 94 seat, recently abandoned by Peppi Bruneau, a New Orleans Republican who held this seat since 1974, is set.  Here is how the ballot will appear for the special election:

State Representative, 94th Representative District
0 of 53 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
0  0% Philip C. Brickman, R –
0  0% “Jeb” Bruneau, R –
0  0% John M. Holahan, Jr., D –
0  0% Deborah J. Langhoff, D –
0  0% Nicholas J. “Nick” Lorusso, R –
0  0% William “Bill” Vanderwall, Sr., D –

Louisiana House District 94,

located in the northwestern corner of Orleans Parish, encompasses the Lake Vista, Lakeshore, Lake Terrace, Lake Oaks, Lakewood, Lakeview, Country Club Gardens, Parkview and City Park neighborhoods as well as parts of Mid-City, Gentilly and Faubourg St John.  Traditionally Republican, the voters of District 94 and of northwestern New Orleans have shown signs of shifting their political allegiances.  For in 2006 they ousted Republican incumbent Jay Batt in the City Council District A race and replaced him with Democratic newcomer Shelley Stephenson Midura, who ran an aggressive grassroots campaign that included everything from humorous television commercials to women clad in aprons protesting and marching on Carrollton Avenue.  Although some claim Midura’s 52-48 victory over Jay Batt in the 2006 runoff was an anomaly that was largely the result of population shifts in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, others maintain her victory was undergirded by voters’ distrust of incumbent politicians who were viewed as aloof, corrupt and unresponsive to the needs of the citizens they were elected to represent.

Midura’s 2006 victory is apposite to this discussion of the special election for LA-HD94 for many reasons:  Midura’s City Council A District,

although it contains Democratic precincts in Uptown and Mid-City not included in LA-HD94, is similar in shape and composition to LA-HD94; the open primaries for Midura’s race as well as the race for LA-HD94 contain large fields of candidates along with a vulnerable Republican incumbent, although in the case of LA-HD94 Jeb Bruneau is not the incumbent but the heir apparent of Bruneau père, who is attempting to transfer power from father to son; and Midura’s campaign consultant, Michael Beychok, has been hired by Democratic challenger Deborah Langhoff, a movement candidate who similar to Midura is running a campaign that highlights the corruption and cronyism of the Republican heir apparent while promising to provide overdue advocacy and representation for the beleaguered LA-HD94 voters who are still trying to recover and rebuild in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.  In other words, Langhoff is running on a compelling message of change, and she is using Midura’s victorious 2006 campaign as a model.

Deborah Langhoff is a political activist, small business owner and community organizer who understands the plight of the constituents she desires to serve: a resident of Lake Vista, her home was destroyed in Katrina.  She also has the political and community experience to wage a winning campaign: she founded Democrats in Jeans, a network of Louisiana Democrats who organized to provide assistance to hurricane survivors in the wake of Katrina; she is a Founding Member of the Citizens’ Road Home Action Team, a group who organized on the New Orleans Wiki who desire to ensure everyone receives their Road Home Program funds; she created LaRoots.net, a private database project that sustains and nutures grassroots organization in Louisiana that began as KerryRoots.net during the 2004 Presidential race; she and the group surrounding her who call themselves Beaucoup Blues organized with Jim Dean and Democracy for America in 2005 in order to “turn Louisiana blue;” and she has created and volunteered for multiple arts education programs in public schools in New Orleans.  In other words, Langhoff is the real deal, and her grassroots organization skills will be a huge benefit to the Democratic Party in Louisiana and in the United States as a whole.

Langhoff definitely has a chance of qualifying for the runoff and beating Jeb Bruneau, the presumed frontrunner, with the right amount of effort and funds.  LA-HD94 is comprised of 53 precincts, 42 of which are located in Midura’s City Council A District.  Midura won 10 of these 42 precincts, garnering 3,419 votes to Batt’s 5,385, or 38.8% to Batt’s 61.2%.  The precincts Midura won are located in Mid-City and Parkview, while Batt one in precincts located in Navarre, Lakewood, West End, Lakeview, Lakeshore, Lake Vista, Lake Terrace and Lake Oaks.  LA-HD94 does contain a Mid-City precinct not included in Midura’s City Council A District, and it also includes 2 in Faubourg St. John, also Democratic, and 5 in Fillmore, which is a lot more Democratic than the precincts located along Lake Pontchartrain and the Metarie Canal, where Batt beat Midura, sometimes by large margins.  LA-HD94 also contains 3 Lake Terrace and Lake Oaks precincts not located in Midura’s City Council A District.  A resident of Lake Vista, Langhoff will be able to reduce Republican margins in these precincts.  Midura’s 2006 victory also provides Langhoff with a precedent with which to lure voters to take her candidacy seriously. 

Although Langhoff will have to fight in order to win this seat, it is definitely feasible: she is the only woman on the ballot; there are no other races on the ballot on 10 March, which makes the open primary and the runoff turnout elections, especially as one other special election for the LA House in Orleans Parish in the wake of Katrina, LA-HD97, had very low turnout in the open primary and in the runoff, 2,300 and 5,400 votes respectively, when turnout for such races is normally about 9,000 to 10,000 votes; and Langhoff is exploiting, indeed exacerbating, a general distrust voters have for incumbent politicians, especially local politicians who failed to keep their constituents safe while never delivering the services they promised.

Visit Deborah Langhoff’s website, and consider contributing to her campaign.  Not only will her victory enable us to gain a LA House seat and thereby ensure that chamber is in Democratic hands for redistricting; her victory will be the first signal to the Louisiana GOP that they will have a big fight on their hands when they try to take over both state legislative chambers later this year.

 

From the Cook Political Report (top item on front page):

Former Democratic Sen. John Breaux is seriously considering a bid for Governor of Louisiana.  John Maginnis, editor of the highly regarded Louisiana Political Fax Weekly, initially reported the news this morning, and the Cook Political Report has independently verified that it is true.  Apparently Democratic Gov. Kathleen Blanco has privately indicated a willingness to step aside if Breaux, or possibly another Democrat, such as Rep. Charlie Melancon, would run instead.

None of this is a done deal, but Breaux is serious, and his candidacy would change the face of the race for Democrats.

Breaux is certainly no favorite of mine – indeed, it’s probably hard for most movement progressives to feel too warmly about him. However, it’s not as though I carry a torch for Blanco, and his entrance into this race would be an immediate game-changer. He’d transform this from an uphill battle to a likely hold, and if he won a second term, he’d be around for redistricting. (LA is a state where, if we’re willing to play hardball, we can pick up at least a seat or two with friendlier lines.)

If this is true, this is big.

UPDATE: Much more here from LouisianaGirl.

P.S. The Race Tracker Wiki could use some updating.

Here is some interesting news from the Cook Political Report:

February 16, 2007

Breaking News: Former Democratic Sen. John Breaux is seriously considering a bid for Governor of Louisiana.  John Maginnis, editor of the highly regarded Louisiana Political Fax Weekly, initially reported the news this morning, and the Cook Political Report has independently verified that it is true.  Apparently Democratic Gov. Kathleen Blanco has privately indicated a willingness to step aside if Breaux, or possibly another Democrat, such as Rep. Charlie Melancon, would run instead.

None of this is a done deal, but Breaux is serious, and his candidacy would change the face of the race for Democrats.

John Maginnis, the Republican operative Cook Political Report cites in their breaking report, writes the following:

Breaux Eyes Governor’s Race
Former Sen. John Breaux has told sources he is “very interested” in running for governor if Kathleen Blanco doesn’t. T. he Fax Weekly spoke to three individuals who say Breaux directly told them of his renewed interest during Washington Mardi Gras.
“This is the most interested I’ve seen him than all the other b.s. we’ve been through,” said a friend of the 61-year-old ex-senator turned high-powered Washington lobbyist. He toyed with campaigning for governor in 2003 and for re-election in 2004, holding the political community and other campaigns in suspense until he announced he would not run.
News of Breaux’s interest both heartens Democrats and puts pressure on Blanco to make her decision soon. The governor is said to have a poll in the field.

If Cook Political Report cites Maginnis, I believe this is news to be taken very seriously.  For Breaux, as many here already know, won his reelection bids for his US Senate seat in 1992 and 1998 in the open primary, not a runoff, with 73% and 64% respectively.  And unlike Landrieu, Breaux’s base is not in Orelans Parish; it is in Acadiana, specifically Acadia Parish.  Moreover, Breaux has overwhelmingly carried what is now the very important, indeed crucial, population center of East Baton Rouge Parish, a feat Mary Landrieu has had much difficulty acheiving, although her 2002 runoff performance is promising. 

Blanco claims a poll is presently in the field, but I am not sure it will convince her to run now that Beaux has indicated a strong interest in the gubernatorial race.  For a Southern Media and Opinion Research poll in January 2007 reported the following:

Republican Jindal leads Blanco, a Democrat, 59 percent to 35 percent, according to a survey of 600 likely voters conducted during the weekend by Southern Media and Opinion Research.

In a three-way race with Democratic Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell, Jindal leads Blanco 58 percent to 31 percent, with Campbell pulling 6 percent.

I am not aware of any legislative feat Blanco has acheived with the state House or the state Senate in the past month, but she has managed to convince Nancy Pelosi and House Democrats to craft legislation to benefit Louisiana.  Blanco has also spent the last month vociferously criticizing Bush in the wake of Brown’s statement that the Bush Administration purposefully undermined Louisiana in order to undercut Blanco’s credibility.

But there are at least three variables we need to consider before we assume Breaux would beat Jindal in the open primary or in a very competitive runoff:  Foster Campbell, John Georges and Walter Boasso.  Foster Campbell, a populist Democrat from North Louisiana who is presently the Public Service Commissioner for one fifth of the state, has a warchest of $750,000, and he plans to run.  But Jindal will be splitting the Republican vote with at least Walter Boasso, a state Senator representing Plaquemines Parish, St. Bernard Parish and parts of St. Tammany Parish, and Orleans Parish businessman John Georges, who has committed $2 million of his own money to his campaign.  Jindal has $2.67 million, and Blanco has $3 million.  Although Breaux has not yet announced, I imagine he will match if not surpass Jindal’s warchest.  We should also keep in mind that Blanco, if she abandons her campaign, will have $3 million to distribute through various channels to Breaux. 

If Breaux chooses to run, this race will become very interesting.  As you can see, Jindal already has viable challenges from two Republicans and two Demcrats, Blanco included.  If Breaux enters, it may be possible Jindal does not even make a runoff, as he will split the Republican vote, particularly the Republican votes of populous Jefferson and St. Tammany Parishes, with a popular state Senator and a wealthy Orleans Parish businessman.  And Foster Campbell will complicate Jindal’s bid in North Louisiana, where Blanco, according to the January poll, still maintains an edge.  John Breaux will only compound the problems Jindal already faces, as Breaux will seriously reduce any support Jindal has in Acadiana, which according the January poll could have been a Jindal stronghold. 

While I am still awaiting Breaux’s entry, I am more optimistic about this race than I was a week ago.  A ticket of Jindal, Georges, Boasso, Breaux and Campbell will make it impossible for Jindal to win the Governor’s seat in 2007.  And I imagine this will make it very difficult for the Louisiana GOP to focus on state House and state Senate seats, as they will have to spend to ensure a Republican, any Republican, makes a runoff with Breaux.

And what of Foster Campell, you may ask?  It is a legitimate question.  Building name recognition in 2007, Campbell can prepare himself for a 2010 race against David Vitter, who is now, according to Maginnis, fashioning himself as another John Breaux.  Perhaps Vitter knows Louisianans are not ready to swallow his callous conservatism. 

This is a subject on which I have done a lot of research on, and I think that I have found a new method of winning in the South. Someone on Daily Kos pointed out that former Nebraska U.S. Senator Jim Exxon was an Economic Populist, but very socially conservative. I find that this is a very good point, because Nebraska is highly rural, and Socially Conservative, much like many Southern states, and I believe it is a good example for what I am trying to push for.

I won’t beat around the bush, but, members of this organization should know I’m a more socially conservative Democrat, so I may see things differently on some issues than you do. I will, however, do my best not to offend anyone in the least.

But, from my own studies of the South, and many rural areas, many people who haven’t voted for Democrats in years, still tend to be populists, it has surprised me over and over and over and over again. Why don’t they vote for Democrats. Well the most common answer was that they weren’t perceived as “Christian” in their values or position as the other guy. After that came, “I didn’t feel like I could connect with him, like he was my friend”, then, “Since both candidates didn’t have an ounce of populism in them, I voted for the more Socially conservative candidate.” All of those statements are true, gotten from overwhelmingly white, and 72% pro-Bush in 2004, East Carroll Parish, where I have several Great-Grandparents, and a place that I visit often, and occasionally deliver a sermon in my great-grandfather’s church.

Quite the opposite of what many think, these Religious Conservatives are actually
Populist, why. Well as someone who has always liked talking and having the spotlight, I also write a bunch of Sermons, many of which I never get a chance to tell anybody, some which I get to do at a small church, a lot of the time my great grandfathers. I can tell you right know, the Bible contains a great deal of economically populist messages, and rural social conservatives do believe these ideals, a lot of them do, far more than most people probably think. Some of the only problems are how Republicans have demonized taxation and Government. That’s why we need what I like to call “Your Friendly Neighborhood Democrat”. The charismatic Democrat who can create what many bloggers have so aptly called ‘a narrative’ about middle class and lower class families struggling to make it, to bring emotion and personal appeals into. I do this regularly in my sometimes rather blatantly political sermons.

Conservatives have gotten many of them thinking Democrats what to take your tax money and give it to poor worthless blacks and minorities, when really, Southern states are the poorest, and rural whites make up a majority of their percentage of the population on welfare. A Democrat needs to bring that back into perspective, to make it to where when someone mentions the Democratic party, that person’s first though is, ‘my party, the common man’s party’, and not, ‘the pro-gay, pro-abortion, Minority party’. That first thought, that’s what most people used to think about the Democratic party into the South before the Republican party, (with much effort), changed the narrative to the latter.

In my opinion the South is not lost at all, but Democrats must adjust. I still maintain that the Democratic Party at large needs to remain fairly socially liberal, (and must start acting more Economically Liberal), but in the South the party needs to become more socially conservative, (in many instances far more than I am). Rural areas that were once the bastion of the Democratic party have now become the opposite for the Republican party, I am personally sure that the key to success is to take back those areas, or come close. In Georgia, many Rural counties where a majority of registered voters were Democrats, Bush got close to 60%, indicating major crossover support due to social issues, and social issues alone.

To give you some more background on this, East Carroll parish is where Oak Grove and multiple other small towns lie. I travel the Parish often, and have found Economic populism, or semi-economic populism still common. People just don’t believe Democrats are the Party to do it, but for them neither are the Republicans.

This brings me up to my second subject; the economic conservatism of elected Southern Democrats. Many Southern Democrats like: Gene Taylor, Lincoln Davis, John Tanner, Mary Landrieu, Blanche Lincoln, Bud Cramer, Mike McIntyre, and Allen Boyd, (who actually signed the Republican proposal to privatize Social Security), are all extremely conservative on Economic Issues. They all also represent districts that, on a presidential level, mostly support Republicans. When a fundamentalist Christian voter who is open to economic is voting in a tough election between a very conservative Democrat and Republican, he’ll most likely choose the Republican because he is most likely the most conservative of the two candidates when it comes to Social issues. Why does he vote this way, why because there’s not a charisma or Economic populism in the Democrats’ body.

Charisma is key! New Democrats will have to use personal appeals, like Republicans, to move voters with a touching narrative. As a writer, I find this personally very easy, and during some sermons on the problems and tough lives of many poor working Americans, my eyes have started watering, because I know what it’s like to grow up poor. New Democrats will have to do the same. Voters have to be moved, not won over because you support massive tax cuts for the rich, or oppose Gay Marriage.

I’d like to know where many of you stand on this issue, maybe you have a personal opinion, or anecdote to share that relates to it. Let’s get into it, as this is the first major post of the Southern Democrats Club.

To tie up a few things, when I said, ‘the pro-gay, pro-abortion, Minority party’, I was not being racist; I was just purveying the reader a very, very, scarily accurate portrayal of a rural conservative white’s thoughts on the Democratic party. Many poor rural people indeed don’t even like the party they always vote for. They still distrust it as the party of the rich, and big business, many still have a deep affinity for the Democratic party too, they just don’t feel like they can vote for it anymore. But, the right type of Democrat can win these voters once again. Second, I will write you all an example of a personal narrative in my next post.

Please vote in the poll so I can get an idea of how many people read this, and please, please, post your thoughts and vocal agreements or disagreements with my thinking.

National and local bloggers as well as a local political scientist, who is, in fact, a Republican operative, have already discussed the ineluctable loss of a US Congressional seat in Louisiana, and they have noted how the GOP is ready to pounce on a state Democratic Party made vulnerable by a national and political disaster.  While I will not express my disgust with the Republicans’ vacuous cynicism and the egregious opportunism of some members of the Louisiana GOP, I will focus on one remedy to this increasingly dire situation: the 2007 elections for every seat in the Louisiana Legislature.

The Louisiana House of Representatives is comprised of 105 seats.  The Democrats presently enjoy a strong majority of 60 seats in the House, while the Republicans and an Independent occupy 41 seats and one seat respectively.  3 seats are currently vacant.  This majority, however, is threatened by many factors, one of which are the term limits that have recently been imposed on all Louisiana legislators: 30 Democrats and 16 Republicans must abandon their seats in 2007.  Compounding the dilemma Louisiana Democrats will face when trying to retain all these open seats is the organization the Republican Party has already consolidated in preparation for the 2007 elections.  Republicans are “on the march in Louisiana,” crows John Maginnis, another Republican operative who poses as an objective news analyst and as a disinterested political commentator for the New Orleans Times-Picayune and other Louisiana newspapers.  While his confidence is somewhat founded, it is also premature, especially as the field for the 2007 legislative races has not yet assumed a discernable shape. 

But Maginnis and the people for whom he serves as a paid pamphleteer do have reason to be optimistic.  For out of the 60 Louisiana Democrats presently in the House, only 30 are eligible for reelection.  And even worse, four of the thirty Democratic incumbents will most probably have to stave off spirited Republican challenges for thier seats in 2007. 

Complicating this already grim predicament are the 30 open seats Democrats must try to retain, 16 of which could very well fall to the Republicans if they are not amply defended.  While two of the sixteen Republican open seats can be claimed by strong Democratic challengers, Republicans can win the House if they wage a coordinated campaign across the state.  Indeed, Democrats are only guaranteed 40 seats in the 2007 election, 13 short of the 53 needed to claim the majority of their chamber.  And even if they win all three of the vacant seats up for election on 24 FEB 2007, they will still be 10 seats short after the November 2007 runoffs.  If Louisiana Democrats and the online activists who should help them do not plan for the imminent Republican onslaught as John Maginnis describes it in advance, their ability to redraw the lines of US House seats to the advantage of Democratic incumbents after the 2010 census will be compromised.

Seats located in parishes that have voted for Democrats running for federal office statewide in 1996, 2000, 2002 and 2004 with incumbents unencumbered by term limits who have received little to no opposition in the last two election cycles are seats I consider guaranteed for the Democratic Party.  I also consider seats where Republicans have not competed in open seat primaries safe for the Democrats.  The maps located on this webpage will help you determine the exact location of these districts.  Seat numbers are printed in the order of Democratic strength, the weakest of which is typed last.

SAFE INCUMBENT DEMOCRATIC SEATS – LOUISIANA HOUSE

61 – Michael L. Jackson (D), East Baton Rouge Parish, elected 1999

101 – Cedric L. Richmond (D), Orleans Parish, elected 1999

102 – Jeffrey “Jeff” J. Arnold (D), Orleans, elected 2002

63 – Avon R. Honey (D), East Baton Rouge Parish, elected 2002

100 – Austin J. Badon, Jr. (D), Orleans Parish, elected 2003

97 – Jean-Paul L. Morrell (D), Orleans Parish, elected 2006

87 – Terrell L. Harris (D), Jefferson Parish, elected 2005

18 – Donald J. Cazayoux, Jr. (D), Pointe Coupee, West Baton Rouge and West Feliciana Parishes, elected 1999

21 – John F. “Andy” Anders (D), Concordia, East Carroll, Madison and Tensas Parishes, elected 2006

51 – Carla Blanchard Dartez (D), Assumption, St. Mary and Terrebonne Parishes, elected 1999

53 – Damon J. Baldone (D), Lafourche and Terrebonne Parishes, elected 2001

75 – Harold L. Ritchie (D), St. Tammany and Washington Parishes, elected 2003

10 – Jean M. Doerge (D), Webster Parish, elected 1998

60 – Karen Gaudet St. Germain (D), Ascension, Assumption, Iberville and West Baton Rouge Parishes, elected 2003

99 – Charmaine L. Marchand (D), Orleans Parish, elected 2003

96 – Juan A. LaFonta (D), Orleans Parish, elected 2005

91 – Jalila Jefferson-Bullock (D), Orleans Parish, elected 2003

29 – Regina Ashford Barrow (D), East Baton Rouge and West Baton Rouge Parishes, elected 2005

93 – Karen R. Carter (D), Orleans Parish, elected 1999

13 – James R. “Jim” Fannin (D), Bienville, Jackson, Ouachita and Winn Parishes, elected 2003

11 – Richard “Rick” Gallot, Jr. (D), Bienville, Lincoln and Claiborne Parishes, elected 2000

23 – T. Taylor Townsend (D), Natchitoches and Winn Parishes, elected 1999

38 – Kenneth Eric LaFleur (D), Evangeline and St. Landry Parishes, elected 1999

2 – Roy A. Burrell (D), Bossier and Caddo Parishes, elected 2003

28 – Monica H. Walker (D), Avoyelles Parish, elected 2003

56 – Gary L. Smith, Jr. (D), St. Charles and St. John the Baptist Parishes, elected 1999

26 seats

4 Democratic and 9 Republican incumbents presently occupy seats representing competitive districts.  These incumbents have received strong competition from an opposing party in an open primary, or they were forced to engage in very competitive runoffs against a member of the opposing party during the last two election cycles.  Some Republican incumbents, especially Nita Hutter and Ernest Wooton, are considered vulnerable as a result of demographic shifts in their districts in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.  Because Democrats may lose many of their open seats, it is to their advantage to wage vigorous challenges against Republicans who hold competitive seats in 2007, especially those Republicans who represent parishes with Democratic leanings.  Seat numbers are presented in order of Democratic strength, the weakest seat for Democrats typed last.  The lone Independent seat in the Louisiana House of Representatives is a competitive seat vulnerable to a Republican takeover.  Unfortunately, we did not run a candidate in the open primary for this seat during the 2004 special election.

COMPETITIVE INCUMBENT SEATS – LOUISIANA HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

98 – Cheryl Artise Gray (D), Orleans Parish, elected 2003

27 – Rick L. Farrar (D), Rapides Parish, elected 1991 and 1999

22 – Billy R. Chandler (D), Grant, LaSalle, Rapides and Winn Parishes, elected 2006

41 – Mickey James Guillory (D), Acadia, Evangeline and St. Landry Parishes, elected 2003

105 – Ernest D. Wooton (R), Jefferson, Plaquemines and St. Charles Parishes, elected 1999, switched from D to R in 2006

54 – Loulan J. Pitre, Jr. (R), Jefferson and Lafourche Parishes, elected 1999

104 – Nita Hutter (R),  St. Bernard Parish, elected 2000

62 – Thomas H. “Tom” McVea (R), East Baton Rouge, Tangipahoa, West Feliciana, East Feliciana, Livingston and St. Helena Parishes, elected 2000

35 – Brett Frank Geymann (R), Calcasieu and Beauregard Parishes, elected 2003

88 – M. J. “Mert” Smiley, Jr. (R), Ascension and Livingston Parishes, elected 2003

71 – Dale M. Erdey (R), Livingston Parish, elected 1999

59 – Eddie J. Lambert (R), Ascension Parish, elected 2003

52 – Gordon E. Dove, Sr. (R), Lafourche and Terrebonne Parishes, elected 2003

31 – Donald “Mark” Don Trahan (R), Lafayette and Vermilion Parishes, elected 2003

45 – Joel C. Robideaux (I), Lafayette Parish, elected 2004

15 seats

15 incumbent Republicans who are unencumbered with lerm limits are considered safe in 2007, but every single one of these seats must be challenged.  The most Republican district is typed last. 

SAFE INCUMBENT REPUBLICAN SEATS – LOUISIANA HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

16 – Kay Kellogg Katz (R), Ouachita Parish, elected 1999

43 – Ernest J. Alexander (R), Lafayette Parish, elected 1999

12 – Hollis Dawns (R), Lincoln and Union Parishes, elected 2003

36 – E. “Chuck” Kleckley (R), Calcasieu Parish, elected 2005

66 – Hunter V. Greene (R), East Baton Rouge Parish, elected 2005

69 – Gary J. Beard (R), East Baton Rouge Parish, elected 2001

81 – John LaBruzzo (R), Jefferson Parish, elected 2003

6 – Mike Powell (R), Bossier and Caddo Parishes, elected 2003

64 – Mack A. “Bodi” White, Jr. (R), East Baton Rouge and Livingston Parishes, elected 2003

89 – Timothy G. “Tim” Burns (R), St. Tammany Parish, elected 2003

86 – Jim Tucker (R), Jefferson and Orleans Parishes, elected 2001

8 – Jane H. Smith (R), Bossier Parish, elected 1999

76 – A. G. Crowe (R), St. Tammany Parish, elected 1999

74 – Michael G. Strain (R), St. Tammany Parish, Tangipahoa and Washington Parishes, elected 1999

5 – Wayne Wadell (R), Caddo Parrish, elected 1997

15 seats

30 Democrats and 16 Republicans must retire in 2008, leaving 46 open seats behind them.  14 seats are safe for Democrats, while 12 are safe for Republicans.  Of the 20 open seats I consider competitive, 16 are presently held by Democrats.  The weakest of these safe Democratic seats is typed last.

SAFE DEMOCRATIC OPEN SEATS – LOUISIANA HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

95(Heaton, D) – Orleans Parish

26(Curtis, D) – Rapides Parish

44(Pierre, D) – Lafayette Parish

17(Hunter, D) – Ouachita Parish

57(Faucheux, D) – St. James and St. John the Baptist Parishes

46(Durand, D) – St. Martin Parish

47(Frith, D) – Cameron and Vermilion Parishes

55(Triche, D) – Lafourche Parish

34(Guillory, D) – Calcasieu Parish

67(Dorsey, D) – East Baton Rouge Parish

39(Baudoin, D) – Lafayette, St. Landry and St. Martin Parishes

20(Kenney, D) – Caldwell, Catahoula, Franklin and Tensas Parishes

3(Baylor, D) – Caddo Parish

58(Quezaire, D) – Ascension, Assumption, Iberville, St. James and St. John Parishes

14 seats

Louisiana Democrats have the tall order of defending 16 of the following 20 competitive open seats.  One Republican seat, however, can be won by a Democrat.  Emile “Peppi” Bruneau, an Orleans Parish Republican who fashions himself as a “fiscal conversative,” has occupied the 94th seat since 1974.  According to Louisiana Republican insiders, Bruneau may retire within the next month, opening the seat for a special election to be held on 31 March, the day of the election for New Orleans’s municipal judges.  Although Bruneau will endeavor to hand this seat to his son with lobbyist money from Baton Rouge, New Orleans Democrats can derail this effort and win this seat, especially as Republican voters from Lakeview have yet to return and rebuild.  Shelley Stephenson Midura, whose City Council district is similar in shape to that of Bruneau’s House district, won her seat as a Democrat during the New Orleans municipal elections last year.  If Orleans Parish Democrats can find a Democrat from Lakeview to run an aggressive grassroots campaign similar to that of Midura, we can win this seat and add to our majority.  Does former New Orleans mayoral candidate Virginia Boulet want a Louisiana House seat?  The least likely seat to be one by a Democrat is typed last.

COMPETITIVE OPEN SEATS – LOUISIANA HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

83(Alario, D) – Jefferson Parish

84(Damico, D) – Jefferson Parish

94(Bruneau, R) – Orleans Parish (may retire in time for 31March election)

19(Thompson, D) – East Carroll, Madison, Morehouse, Ouachita, Richland and West Carroll Parishes

72(Carter, D) – East Feliciana, Tangipahoa, West Feliciana and St. Helena Parishes

103(Odinet, D) – Orleans and St. Bernard Parishes

42(Pinac, D) – Acadia and Lafayette Parishes

32(Hill, D) – Allen, Beauregard and Vernon Parishes

24(Salter, D) – DeSoto, Red River, Sabine and Vernon Parishes

70(Crane, R) – East Baton Rouge Parish

14(McDonald, D) – East Caroll, Morehouse, Ouachita, West Carroll

49(Hebert, D) – Iberia and Vermilion Parishes

25(DeWitt, D) – Rapides and Vernon Parishes

50(Smith, D) – Iberia, St. Martin and St. Mary Parishes

65(Kennard, R) – East Baton Rouge Parish

92(Ansardi, D) – Jefferson Parish

48(Romero, D) – Iberia Parish

7(Bruce, D) – Caddo and DeSoto Parishes

30(Smith, D) – Beauregard and Vernon Parishes

73(Powell, R) – Tangipahoa Parish

20 seats

All of the following safe Republican open seats must be challenged.  The weakest Democratic opportunity is typed last.

SAFE REPUBLICAN OPEN SEATS – LOUISIANA HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

15(Walsworth, R) – Ouachita Parish

68(Daniel, R) – East Baton Rouge Parish

33(Johns, R) – Beauregard and Calcasieu Parishes

82(Scalise, R) – Jefferson and Orleans Parishes

37(Moorish, R) – Calcasieu and Jefferson Davis Parishes

85(Toomy,R) – Jefferson Parish

79(Martiny, R) – Jefferson Parish

9(Montgomery, R) – Bossier Parish

80(Lancaster, R) – Jefferson Parish

78(Bowler, R) – Jefferson Parish

90(Schneider, R) – St. Tammany Parish

77(Winston, R) – St. Tammany and Tangipahoa Parishes

20 seats

Open primaries will be held for the three vacant House seats on 24 February 2007.  2 of these vacant seats are safe Democratic seats, while one of them is a competitive seat.  Here is how the ballot for these seats will appear:

State Representative, 1st Representative District
0 of 31 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
0  0% Michael Page Boyter, R –
0  0% Richard “Richie” Hollier, D –
0  0% Ruth W. Johnston, D –
0  0% “Jim” Morris, R –
0  0% Marc Weddleton, R –

State Representative, 4th Representative District
0 of 26 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
0  0% Larry Ferdinand, D –
0  0% Reginald Johnson, D –
0  0% Calvin “Ben” Lester, Jr., D –
0  0% Patrick C. Williams, D –

State Representative, 40th Representative District
0 of 43 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
0  0% “Jim” Darby, D –
0  0% “Chris” Declouette, D –
0  0% Elbert Lee Guillory, D –
0  0% “Bradford” Jackson, N –
0  0% Roderick “Rod” James, D –
0  0% Ledricka Johnson, D –

The 40th district seat, located in Opelousas, St. Landry Parish, is the safest Democratic seat with an election on 24 Feb, even if there is a candidate not affiliated with the Democratic Party on the ballot.  The 4th district seat in Shreveport is guaranteed for the Democrats, as only Democrats are on the open primary ballot.  But the 1st district ballot is somewhat worrisome.  Previously held by a Democrat, Rep. Hoppy Hopkins, who recently died of cancer, this is a competitive seat for Republicans: notice how they have three Republicans on the ballot.  Thankfully, we have only two Democrats on the ballot, giving us a chance to at least have one Democrat make the runoff, as Republicans will split their vote between three candidates.  Ruth Johnston, former restaurant owner and populist Justice of the Peace from Oil City, Louisiana (population 1,188), is the strongest Democratic candidate, although she does not have a website.  The other Democratic candidate, Richie Hollier, also lacks a website, and I hope Louisiana Democrats will begin to create campaign websites in the future, for some Republicans, especially those who fashion themselves as so many mindless clones of a David Vitter or a Piyush “Bobby” Jindal, already have. 

Beating Caddo Parish Commissioner Jim Morris in the first distrcit race on 27 FEB will be difficult, even if “Psycho Santa” is tarring the Republican brand with his eccentric marijuana rights platform .  Given the shape of this first district race, I hope you understand why I am so worried about 2007:  Republicans are fielding their best candidates for competitive seats, and Louisiana Democrats believe they can retain their fragile majorities without advanced infrastructure or Internet outreach.  This must change immeidately, and I plan on contacting Chris Whittington at the Louisiana Democratic Party office in Baton Rouge about this problem. 

Although I plan to contact local officials, I also plan to write the DLCC.  We can retain our majority in the Louisiana House of Representatives, but it will take some money, some time and some effort at recruitment.  It will have its dividends, however, as we will control redistrcting in 2010 after setting an overly confident Louisiana GOP to rout.  What better way to prepare Louisiana to vote for a Democratic Presidential candidate than to humiliate their state GOP party organization in a year when they expect to sweep legislative and executive offices throughout the state?

Expect a diary on LA-HD104 once Emile “Peppi” Bruneau’s retirement is confirmed.  This is a race Democrats can and must win before the October 2007 showdown.  And because the netroots was already involved in New Orleans politics with Karen Carter’s bid to oust Bill Jefferson, I imagine a residual infrastructure still exists in order to support this important effort.