Tag: MD-Gov

Abt SRBI, Inc for the Washington Post (9/22-26, likely voters, 5/3-6 in parens):

Martin O’Malley (D-inc): 52 (47)

Bob Ehrlich (R): 41 (47)

(MoE: ±4%)

Nice movement for Martin O’Malley here. Bob Ehrlich’s problem? Although he’s winning independents, his message is failing to sway enough Democrats to his campaign:

Instead, despite widespread concern among Marylanders about the economy and direction of the state, Democrats have moved solidly behind O’Malley. And he is more popular now than at any time a Post poll has been taken since 2004.

In recent months, O’Malley has moved to invigorate his party’s base by adopting a campaign theme that asks voters to reject a return to Republican control. Four out of five Maryland Democrats say they are enthusiastic about voting for him, according to the poll. O’Malley has also emerged as the candidate more trusted by voters on the top issue in the race: Maryland’s economy. […]

In 2002, Ehrlich was lifted over his Democratic opponent, Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, in large part by scoring 22 percent among Democrats, according to a Washington Post exit poll that year. Ehrlich, in his losing reelection bid four years later, mustered 15 percent of the Democratic vote. Now, only 10 percent of self-identified Democrats say they back Ehrlich in the re-match.

Among registered voters, O’Malley’s lead is 49-35, and his job approval rating sits at 57-33. In a year where incumbent Dem Governors have been getting shellacked in the polls, the O’Malley camp has got to be pleased with these numbers.

• AK-Sen: If anything makes clear the depth of the NRSC’s change of allegiance from Lisa Murkowski to Joe Miller, check out the list of five different NRSC-organized, Senator-filled fundraisers that’ll be held on Miller’s behalf next week. Murkowski, meanwhile, is shrugging off the loss of her leadership post (which went to John Barrasso) and ranking committee position, seeming more focused on the mechanics of her write-in bid. She’s going to have to do a little better than this, though (although Alaska doesn’t require precise spelling of write-ins): the original version of the ad telling people about her write-in bid directed people to a URL that misspelled her name (LisaMurkwski.com). (I wonder if some cybersquatter has already grabbed that URL by now?)

• AR-Sen: Ipsos, on behalf of Reuters, is out with a look at Arkansas, a Senate race that’s hardly worth looking at anymore. Nevertheless, they show a closer race than anybody else has lately: Blanche Lincoln trails John Boozman by “only” 14, a 53-39 gap among LVs. Lincoln’s favorables seem to be improving a bit too, but time’s running out for a full-fledged comeback.

• CO-Sen: Here’s a tantalizing tidbit, although it doesn’t have any bearing on the current race, just likely to exacerbate the seemingly-escalating war between the NRSC and Jim DeMint. It turns out the NRSC gave the maximum $42K to Jane Norton, just four days before the GOP primary. Not much of a vote of confidence in Ken Buck, is it?

• NH-Sen: Unfortunately, where many Republican primaries have dissolved into acrimony afterwards, we’re seeing lots of unity in New Hampshire. Ovide Lamontagne is helping to raise funds for narrow victor Kelly Ayotte at a DC fundraiser scheduled for Sep. 27.

• WA-Sen: Considering the play this has gotten in the local press, this small comment on a parochial issue looks to be a major faceplant for Dino Rossi… he dared depart from the party line on the mighty Boeing. He suggested that Boeing should get no favorable treatment from the Pentagon in its competition with Airbus (whose efforts are subsidized by European governments) over who gets to build the next-generation Air Force tanker. (To put that in context, that would be like a candidate going to Iowa and dissing ethanol, or going to West Virginia and dissing coal.) Boeing had already explicitly endorsed Patty Murray, but now she has a nuclear-grade weapon to use against Rossi in the Boeing-dependent swingy suburbs.

And here’s a hat tip to Horsesass’s Goldy, who spots some interesting details in the fine print of that Elway Poll from last week. People were surprised when that CNN/Time poll found a reverse enthusiasm gap for the Dems in Washington (with Murray faring better among LVs than RVs), but Elway actually shows something similar. The 50-41 topline was LVs, but pushed leaners. Include only the “definite voters” and that pushes up to a 13-pt lead for Murray (43-30). I don’t have one good explanation for this phenomenon, but I’d guess it’s a combination of a) Dems being more diehard liberal in Washington and less swingy and/or sporadic than in other states, b) the economy being somewhat better in Washington than many other places, and c) teabagger ennui after Clint Didier lost the primary to establishment leftover Dino Rossi.

• NM-Gov: We’ve got dueling banjos internals in the Land of Enchantment. Susana Martinez whipped it out first, rolling out a POS poll from last week with a 50-40 lead for her. Not to be outdone, Diane Denish pulled out her own poll from GQR from the same timeframe, showing that Martinez is leading “only” 49-44. Um… take that?

• NY-Gov: Rick Lazio is hedging on what exactly he’s going to do with his spot on the Conservative Party line, sounding like he wants to wait and see how Carl Paladino fares before making up his mind. Meanwhile, Andrew Cuomo got a pretty significant endorsement, from NYC mayor Michael Bloomberg, which may sway a few moderate indies but is probably mostly helpful from a GOTV organizational standpoint within the city. Meanwhile, you might have also heard something about a poll of this race today? I’ve heard a few rumblings. Anyway, we’re deferring discussion of today’s Quinnipiac poll until the Siena and SurveyUSA polls, due tomorrow, also come out, offering us a better yardstick.

• RI-Gov, RI-01: Quest for WJAR-TV (9/15-17, likely voters, no trendlines):

Frank Caprio (D): 36

John Robitaille (R): 13

Lincoln Chafee (I): 24

Ken Block (M): 2

Undecided: 25

David Cicilline (D): 49

John Loughlin (R): 26

Undecided: 25

(MoE: ±4.7%)

This is probably the biggest lead we’ve seen for Frank Caprio in the Governor’s race, and also the first post-primary poll of the race in the 1st, which looks to be an easy race for Providence mayor David Cicilline despite being an open seat in a dangerous year. The poll also finds the Dems easily winning the LG, AG, SoS, and RI-02 races.

• TN-Gov: Crawford Johnson and Northcott for WSMV-TV (registered voters, trendlines from early July):

Mike McWherter (D): 24 (34)

Bill Haslam (R): 55 (60)

Undecided: 19 (6)

(MoE: ±4%)

I’m not going out on a limb by saying we can expect Bill Haslam to win the Tennessee governor’s race. The only odd thing here is that this is WSMV’s second poll of the race, and the number of undecideds has shot up dramatically since July (of course, it’s a mystery how there were so few back then).

• FL-22: Anzalone-Liszt for Ron Klein (9/14-16, likely voters, no trendlines):

Ron Klein (D): 48

Allen West (R): 40

(MoE: ±4.4%)

While this isn’t an awe-inspiring lead for Klein in his own internal, it’s a good topline and there are some interesting numbers in the fine print. Most notably, West’s unfavorables have tripled (to 26%) since May as people have started paying attention.

• MA-04: OMG, even Barney Frank’s in trouble! (In case you couldn’t tell, I was being sarcastic.) (Or was I?) Anyway, the Republican candidate running against Frank, Sean Bielat, is out with a poll from GOP pollster On Message giving Frank a 48-38 lead over Bielat. I suppose a ceiling of 38% is plausible for a no-name GOPer in this part of Massachusetts, which went 63% for Obama but includes a lot of exurbs and went narrowly for Scott Brown in the special election, but I’m unclear on how he gets much further than that.

• PA-03: Franklin & Marshall (9/14-19, registered voters, no trendlines):

Kathy Dahlkemper (D-inc): 38

Mike Kelly (R): 44

(MoE: ±4.8%)

This seems to be the first truly independent poll of this race, although we’ve seen various internals and Republican third-party polls all showing Dahlkemper in trouble, though not always losing. Franklin & Marshall opts for the “losing” side, although it’s slightly less severe among RVs (42-38).

• VA-05: Benenson Strategy Group for Tom Perriello (9/14-16, likely voters, no trendlines):

Tom Perriello (D): 44

Rob Hurt (R): 46

Jeff Clark (I): 4

Undecided: 5

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Not much difference here than that DCCC poll by Global Strategy Group a few weeks ago that also saw Perriello down by 2. Again, not the most appetizing numbers for rolling out when it’s your own internal, but at least it’s some pushback against those SurveyUSA numbers.

• WA-09: Benenson Strategy Group for Adam Smith (9/18-20, likely voters, no trendlines):

Adam Smith (D): 54

Dick Muri (R): 35

Undecided: 19

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Hmmm, speaking of pushback against SurveyUSA numbers, here’s an internal from the Adam Smith camp (who were seen as being in a close race in a public poll from over the weekend). Now these are the kind of internal poll numbers we like to see… although the very fact that Adam Smith should have to be releasing internal polls in the first place is, well, a sign of the times.

• DCCC: Here’s some interesting money shuffling from the DCCC, which might portend an increased focus on GOTV. A CQ piece detailing some miscellany from their report this month included a number of transfers from the DCCC to state Democratic party committees. That includes $196K to Ohio, $142K to Arizona, and $132K to Arizona.

• American Crossroads: Wasn’t the “Crossroads” myth about selling your soul to the devil? At any rate, Politico is out with a nauseating story that’s a stark counterpoint to the normal old committee numbers that we released this morning: while the Dems have advantages at the committee level, they’re getting crushed in outside TV spending by third-party groups, to the tune of $23.6 million for GOP ads to $4.8 million for Dem ads. (Of course, some of that is money that in previous cycles would have gone to the RNC, which is way out of whack (or “wack,” as Michael Steele might say) and unable to do much with its usual task of helping state committees… making the GOP more reliant than ever on hoping that their air saturation can overcome disadvantages in the ground game.)

The largest of these groups, of course, is American Crossroads, which is out with six new attack ads in different Senate races: Illinois ($482K), Kentucky ($235K), Nevada ($320K), New Hampshire ($643K), Ohio ($260K), and Pennsylvania ($226K). I know the teabaggers like to think that when the 2010 election is written in the history books, the story will be about some sort of populist uprising, but more likely, their useful idiocy will be long forgotten and the story will be about the uprising of a dozen or so billionaires, leveraging tens of millions on ads in order to save themselves hundreds of billions in taxes.

• SSP TV:

• CT-Sen: The state Democratic party goes after Linda McMahon, looking at job cuts she oversaw at WWE

• MO-Sen: The DSCC wades back into Missouri, looking at how Roy Blunt keeps his corruption all in the family

• MD-Gov: A DGA-allied group hits Bob Ehrlich for being in the pocket of utilities during and after his gubernatorial term

• IL-10: Dan Seals goes negative against Bob Dold!, hitting him on social security and abortion rights

• IL-14: Nancy Pelosi’s coming for you! Booogetyboogetyboogety! (or so says Randy Hultgren’s second ad)

• NC-02: Renee Elmers found the money to run an ad? Well, it is cable only… Anyway, it’s about the Burlington Coat Factory mosque, despite that Bob Etheridge says he doesn’t support it

• PA-11: Paul Kanjorski again goes negative on Lou Barletta on the bread and butter stuff, hitting for him opposition to a State Department security forces training center for the district

• PA-17: Even Tim Holden’s hitting the airwaves with two different ads, one that’s a soft bio spot for himself, and then an attack on his opponent’s role in legislative pay raises

• WA-08: Suzan DelBene’s second ad is against negative against Dave Reichert, especially for opposing financial reform

• Rasmussen:

• AK-Gov: Ethan Berkowitz (D) 34%, Sean Parnell (R-inc) 54%

• CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 47%, Meg Whitman (R) 46%

• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 41%, Mark Kirk (R) 44%, LeAlan Jones (G) 4%

• ME-Gov: Libby Mitchell (D) 27%, Paul LePage (R) 45%, Eliot Cutler (I) 14%

• MI-Gov: Virg Bernero (D) 38%, Rick Snyder (R) 51%

• NY-Sen: Charles Schumer (D-inc) 58%, Jay Townsend (R) 36%

• AR-Sen: Move along, nothing to see here. Talk Business, via Hendrix College, is out with another poll of the Arkansas Senate race. They find John Boozman leading Blanche Lincoln 56-29, with 5 for indie Trevor Drown. (The previous Talk Business poll, taken by Zata|3, had it at 57-32.)

• DE-Sen: Trying to put his money where his mouth is, Jim DeMint, via his Senate Conservatives Funds, is going on the air with a new cable TV spot on behalf of Christine O’Donnell. The buy is for at least $250K. As I expected, it makes very obvious hay out of Harry Reid’s dumb reference to Chris Coons as his “pet.”

• FL-Sen: This is a long read, but worth checking out, not just from a partisan standpoint but also as insight into the constant revolving door between politics, big law, academia, and the nebulous world of “consulting.” It’s a thorough going-over of Marco Rubio’s finances over the years, looking at some of the already-known stuff (his foreclosure problems and overuse of state party credit cards) but also at the connections that have gradually allowed him to enrich himself.

• KS-Sen, KS-Gov: SurveyUSA finds… brace yourselves… Republicans in the lead in Kansas! The Senate race appears to be out in no-man’s land, with Jerry Moran leading Lisa Johnston 66-24. The Governor’s race, however, remains moderately interesting, with Sam Brownback up over Tom Holland 59-32. Still not a good result, but that’s a 15-point swing in Holland’s favor from last time, as he now leads among self-described moderates.

• KY-Sen: This poll from last week is probably interesting enough for the front page… but it’s getting more than a little stale, after our having repeatedly fumbled attempts to write it up, so we’re just dropping it off here (figuring many of you have already seen it on over at Daily Kos). PPP, on behalf of Big Orange, finds that Rand Paul leads Jack Conway 49-42. On the plus side, not much of an enthusiasm gap here, thanks to Paul’s polarizing nature; it’s just a solidly red state.

• LA-Sen: Two different polls in Louisiana tell different stories. Dem pollster Bennett Petts & Normington, on behalf of the DSCC, sees a 10-point race, with David Vitter leading Charlie Melancon 48-38. On the other hand, Republican pollster Magellan sees it as an 18-point race: 52-34. The truth, as is often said, probably lies somewhere in between.

• UT-Sen: The Senate half of the Dan Jones poll (for the Deseret News and KSL-TV) finally showed up. In what could be called “not a surprise,” the Republican is winning in Utah. Mike Lee (who turfed out Bob Bennett at the state convention) is easily beating Sam Granato, 52-25.

• WA-Sen: Here’s a nice story about hypocrisy… or hypoc-Rossi, in this case. Dino Rossi made a campaign stop at a Whidbey Island shipyard last week, one that’s nearly doubled its workforce from 130 to 210. Turns out, though, that the shipyard received $841K in stimulus funds, and the yard’s owner says the expansion is a direct result of the stimulus. (Interestingly, Rossi, without any guidance from Admiral Ackbar, may have sailed right into A TRAP: he showed up at the invitation of the yard’s owner, who has donated to Patty Murray in the past.)

• WI-Sen: If that Rossi hypocrisy story seems kind of small potatoes to you, well, don’t worry, because Ron Johnson seems to have, over the last few weeks, been exposed as the absolute master of hypocrisy about engorging yourself on the government teat all the while raging against it. While he can claim that building-a-rail-spur-to-Pacur thing was in the distant past, now it comes out that in March 2009, in his role as board member of Oshkosh’s Grand Opera House, he sought stimulus funds for renovations to the opera. Y’know, the stimulus bill that’s KILLING US ALL AND ALL FUTURE GENERATIONS!!1!  

• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin has had good relations with the state-level Chamber of Commerce, who’ve backed him in the past. They must have put in a good word for him with the national organization, as now the US Chamber of Commerce is endorsing him too, quite the rarity for a high-profile Dem.

• FL-Gov: Rick Scott’s previous defense against the massive Medicare fraud problems at his former healthcare company Columbia/HCA was that he’d have stopped them if only he’d known they were going on (which, considering his job was to run the company, should have demolished his credibility right there). But now it’s been revealed that his legal team was keeping him apprised, at least on the issue of trying to skirt a federal anti-kickback law.

• FL-22: They’ve had to call out the biggest fundraising gun of all for Ron Klein, seeing as how he’s up against a nutty opponent but one with a direct line into seemingly hundreds of thousands of teabaggers’ wallets in Allen West. Barack Obama will fundraise for Klein in the Miami area on Oct. 11 (at the home of former NBA star Alonzo Mourning).

• MS-01: The Tarrance Group is out with another Alan Nunnelee internal giving him a single-digit lead over Travis Childers in the 1st: this time, he’s up 48-41.

• NY-23: Would you believe the NY-23 count is still going on? Although it seems like Matt Doheny is the likely victor in the GOP primary, with a 582-vote lead right now, 1,969 military and overseas ballots remain to be counted. In Friday’s count, Doug Hoffman added 207 votes while Doheny added 177.

• American Crossroads: Rove, Inc., seems to be becoming the main conduit for billionaires looking to put their thumbs on the electoral scales but skeptical of the Michael Steele-helmed RNC: they raised $14.5 million in the last 30 days, almost doubling their year-to-date total.

• NRCC: The NRCC is out with a bonanza of IEs in 23 different districts (click the FEC link for specific numbers): PA-11, VA-09, PA-08, WI-07, NJ-03, PA-03, IL-14, MI-01, MI-07, PA-07, NC-07, IL-11, AL-02, AZ-01, CA-11, FL-02, KY-06, MS-01, TN-08, TX-23, VA-05, IN-02, and IL-10.

• SEIU: So, while the CoC is endorsing the Dem in West Virginia, the SEIU is endorsing the not-Dem in Rhode Island: they’ve thrown their backing behind indie Lincoln Chafee. (United Nurses and Allied Professionals will also endorse Chafee today, and the AFL-CIO is currently meeting about which way to go.) The SEIU is also out with a couple IEs of their own, spending $250K against Tim Walberg in MI-07 and $435K against deep-pocketed Jim Renacci in OH-16.

• SSP TV:

• CO-Sen: The DSCC is out with three different ads focusing on various aspects of Ken Buck’s nuttery, including the 17th Amendment and opposition to common birth control methods

• CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal’s ad focuses on pushback against various Linda McMahon misrepresentations

• FL-22: Ron Klein calls out Allen West for his various veiled calls for armed uprising

• HI-01: Charles Djou’s first ad of the general is a positive spot listing accomplishments from his short time in office

• IL-10: Bob Dold! ties Dan Seals to Nancy Pelosi in a health care-themed ad

• PA-10: Here’s the winner of the day: Chris Carney quickly and effectively summarizes the nasty links between Tom Marino and Louis DeNaples

• PA-15: Charlie Dent goes after John Callahan’s bookkeeping as mayor of Bethlehem

• WI-08: Steve Kagen dips into the well of 50s-era public-domain stock footage to hit Reid Ribble on his calls for Social Security phaseout

• Rasmussen:

• MD-Gov: Martin O’Malley (D-inc) 50%, Bob Ehrlich 47%

• MD-Sen: Barbara Mikulski (D-inc) 54%, Eric Wargotz (R) 38%

• NH-Gov: John Lynch (D-inc) 48%, John Stephen (R) 46%

• NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo (D) 54%, Carl Paladino (R) 38%, Rick Lazio (C) 0% because Rasmussen didn’t bother to include him

• WI-Gov: Tom Barrett (D) 43%, Scott Walker (R) 51%

• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D) 50%, John Raese (R) 43%

• AK-Sen: Two positive developments in the Alaska Senate race, as Scott McAdams seeks to introduce himself in this suddenly-competitive race. He was the recipient of a Mark Begich-headlined fundraiser yesterday in Washington DC, and he’s also out with a radio ad stressing his Alaskan roots and that he’ll keep fighting for “schools, hospitals, roads, and other nuts and bolts” – both key ways to differentiate himself from Joe Miller. As for Lisa Murkowski’s plans, she’s saying that she’ll make her intentions known by Friday whether she wants to make a write-in bid (but her plans to return to DC might be a “no” tea leaf).

• DE-Sen: After running far, far away from Christine O’Donnell last night, the NRSC has done an about-face today, giving her the maximum $42K (with Mitch McConnell chipping in his own $5K). I’d be surprised if they give any more than that; this seems like an attempt to placate the base before they go ballistic. Mitt Romney is also backing O’Donnell and giving his own $5K, apparently more worried about getting past the base in the 2012 GOP primary than support for O’Donnell might look for him in the 2012 general. Meanwhile, for those hoping for outright support for Chris Coons from Mike Castle, the Castle camp has said there won’t be an endorsement. (Assistance can take a variety of other forms, though, that aren’t as likely to be apparent.) Finally, if you’re wondering about how Christine O’Donnell sees herself within the Middle Earth context, now you can find out.

• NH-Sen: Although New Hampshire recount law would allow Ovide Lamontagne to seek a recount (since he finished within 1.5% of the total votes cast), he just opted against such an action, conceding the race to Kelly Ayotte. He had until the end of the day to request it.

• AK-Gov: It’s the last day to get his name on the ballot in Alaska in any capacity (and not really at issue, since the AIP and Libertarians weren’t open to subbing him as their candidate). That leaves 2nd place GOP gubernatorial finisher Bill Walker with a write-in bid as his only option, too, and he sounds like such a bid is “unlikely.”

• CA-Gov: I don’t know if all is truly well now between Bill Clinton and Jerry Brown, or Clinton is just feeling that he’s adequately established himself as the alpha dog in the wake of Brown’s capitulation following their ill-advised sparring, but Clinton gave his endorsement to Brown. It remains to be seen what exactly Clinton does on Brown’s behalf, though.

• CO-Gov: Tom Tancredo is able to stay on the ballot, said a U.S. District Court judge yesterday. He’d been the subject of a challenge from local GOPers, but the judge ruled that it wasn’t relevant that Tancredo had been a member of the Republican Party up until launching his Constitution Party bid.

• FL-Gov: The DGA just plowed $1 million into the Florida governor’s race, showing that they indeed think this (thanks to Rick Scott’s presence) is one of their best pickup opportunities but also that the route to doing so will be through a whole lot of money.

• GA-Gov: Nathan Deal is fighting back against reports that he’s in such financial disarray right now that he might need to sell his house to avoid default on a large business loan. The $2.3 million loan is due on Feb. 1, which exceeds the Deal family’s net worth. (This was an investment in a business started by his daughter which failed completely; it’s entirely separate from the family auto salvage business that’s at the heart of the Ethics complaint that chased him out of the House.)

• MD-Gov: Looks like we won’t have any lingering bad feelings here, unlike a lot of other establishment/Tea Party GOP primaries: Brian Murphy, who lost badly to Bob Ehrlich, has offered his endorsement to Ehrlich “if he’s willing to accept it.”

• DSCC: I guess Charles Schumer looked at yesterday’s election results and decided he didn’t have much to worry about in November from Jay Townsend. He just transferred $1 million to the DSCC from his own cash yesterday, on top of a previous $1 million in August. That leaves him with “only” about $22 million CoH… about the same amount of cash on hand that the DSCC has!

• DCCC, NRCC: The DCCC and NRCC are out with slew of independent expenditures advertisements. (Expect to see that phrase in every digest for the next month and a half.) The DCCC rolled out three new IEs in HI-01, MI-01, and AL-02. The NRCC’s buy is in 10 districts: most significantly in IN-02 (for $135K), but also AZ-01, CA-11, FL-02, MS-01, TX-17, VA-05, WI-07 (for $79K), and TN-08 (for $105K). If you want more details on the NRCC’s bid, you can check out the actual FEC filing.

• Self-funders: The Wall Street Journal has a helpful rundown on how self-funders are faring this year. As with, well, pretty much every other year, they’re faring quite poorly. Of the 10 biggest self-funders in this cycle’s Senate races, only three actually are still running (Linda McMahon, Carly Fiorina, and Ron Johnson); the other seven (Jeff Greene, Steve Pagliuca, Bill Binnie, David Malpass, Sue Lowden, Jim Bender, and Terrence Wall) all fell by the wayside, often in spectacular fashion. Same story in the House, where only three of the top 10 self-funders (Tom Ganley, Randy Altschuler, and Matt Doheny) are still functional.

• Redistricting: Any SSP readers out in Arizona? Here’s your chance to get out from behind Dave’s App and actually get your hands on the real thing! The state’s nonpartisan redistricting commission is seeking applications from the public for appointment to the 5-member commission.

• SSP TV:

• 60+ Assoc.: The health care astroturfers are running anti-Dem ads in WI-03, WI-08, NY-01, NY-20, and PA-10

• AFF: AFF launches a total $2.3 million buy in seven Dem districts: AL-02, GA-08, MI-01, MI-07, NJ-03, SC-05, and WV-01

• American Crossroads: Rove, Inc., is spending $330K on a MO-Sen ad and $550K on a CO-Sen ad

• FL-Sen: The US Chamber of Commerce hits Charlie Crist, pointing to his many flip-flops

• NV-Sen: The Sharron Angle camp has another anti-Harry Reid ad, calling him “the best friend an illegal immigrant ever had”

• NY-Sen-B: Kirsten Gillibrand’s out with her first ad, more or less explicitly introducing herself despite her two years or service

• NC-02: Bob Etheridge isn’t leaving anything to chance this year, rolling out an ad that’s mostly a pleasant bio spot

• OH-18: I mentioned Zack Space’s anti-NAFTA ad yesterday, but here’s an actual link to the ad

• PA-06: Jim Gerlach’s first ad has him stepping away from the Republican label, saying he’s “an independent voice for taxpayers”

• PA-10: Chris Carney’s ad goes there, hitting Tom Marino on his ties to sketchy casino entrepreneur Louis DeNaples

• SC-05: Mick Mulvaney’s new ad hits John Spratt for having gone native in Washington

• WI-07: Is the DCCC taking a page from the Fred Davis “Celebrity” ad that seemed to bizarrely work against Obama? Their new ad against Sean Duffy is rife with clips from his days on The Real World

• Rasmussen:

• FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek (D) 23%, Marco Rubio (R) 41%, Charlie Crist (I) 30%

• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 43%, John Kasich (R) 50%

• PA-Sen: Joe Sestak (D) 41%, Pat Toomey (R) 49%

• VT-Gov: Peter Shumlin (D) 49%, Brian Dubie (R) 46%

• VT-Sen: Patrick Leahy (D) 62%, Len Britton (R) 32%

Although the people of Hawaii would beg to differ with my characterization (their turn is Saturday), this is the last big night of primaries for the cycle.

• DE-Sen (R): Mike Castle would unquestionably be the strongest candidate the GOP could put up for the seat being vacated by appointed placeholder Ted Kaufman, but since when has that stopped the GOP? Castle is facing a surging teabagger, Christine O’Donnell, who’s received plenty of assistance from the Tea Party Express (or as James Hell would say, a quarter million dead presidents worth) and the Grizzly Momma herself. O’Donnell has plenty of baggage from her run against Joe Biden in 2008, but yesterday’s PPP poll has cat fud lovers salivating, showing a narrow 47-44 advantage for none other than O’Donnell. We can’t help but pull for an O’Donnell victory, which would singlehandedly tilt this race significantly in Team Blue’s favor. (JMD)

• DE-AL (R): True SSPers will never pass up a race that has high egg-on-NRCC’s-face potential (or EoNRCCFP, if you will), something we might very well find here tonight. Two businesspeople – Michele Rollins and Glen Urquhart – face off, though Rollins has the backing of the state GOP; she’s technically more moderate than the full-fleged ‘bagger Urquhart. Urquhart had a 12-point lead in the last PPP poll of the race (which, of course, also indicated a very conservative primary electorate inclined to chuck Mike Castle). Both are on the air, and have had the requisite funds with which to do so ($433k spent by Rollins, $514k by Urquhart). It’s hard to decide who to root for here – let’s keep our mojo for the race one up on the ballot. (JMD)

• DC-Mayor (D): Incumbent Adrian Fenty hasn’t been afraid to enact controversial policies since taking office in 2007. Most notable has been his support for his controversial Chancellor of Schools appointment, Michelle Rhee. Fenty’s unpopularity has been seized by City Council Chairman Vincent Gray, opening up a divide between the newer transplants and long-time residents, who seem to prefer Fenty and Gray, respectively. The Washington Post has endorsed Fenty, as has the more local Washington City Paper …which took the opportunity to call Fenty “the jerk that D.C. needs.” Regardless, Gray has led in recent polling, with leads ranging from 7 points in a Clarus poll to 17 points in a recent WaPo poll. Given that, Gray should be favored tonight; it goes without saying that tonight’s winner will be the prohibitive favorite in this overwhelmingly Democratic city. (JMD)

• MA-09 (D): Labor activist Mac D’Alessandro has run an aggressive campaign against conservative Dem Stephen Lynch, who earned lifetime douchebag status by infamously switching from “yes” to “no” on the healthcare reform bill, in this South Boston-based district. D’Alessandro has enjoyed $250K in expenditures on his behalf from the SEIU (his former organization), and benefited from a late surge in campaign funds, but has still been badly out-raised by Lynch. (JL)

• MA-10 (D/R): Fortunately, the Dem primary to replace outgoing Dem Rep. Bill Delahunt has been relatively calm. State Sen. Robert O’Leary and Norfolk DA William Keating are the players here, but it’s been hard to get a read on who has the upper hand. O’Leary released an internal poll in early August claiming a 6-point lead, while Keating enjoyed some late-breaking positive press from chasing down a purse snatcher over the weekend. Your guess is as good as mine!

Republicans hope to seriously contest this seat in November, but both their candidates – state Rep. Jeff Perry and ex-Treasurer Joe Malone – have significant baggage: Malone for several of his staffers stealing nearly $10 million from the Treasurer’s office under his watch in the ’90s, and Perry for his oversight of a police officer under his command who conducted illegal strip-searches of teenage girls while Perry was a police sergeant in the early 1990s. (JL)

• MD-Gov (R): Former Governor Robert Ehrlich – who spent four years in office constantly clashing with the Democratic-controlled state legislature before his defeat by then Baltimore Mayor Martin O’Malley – is attempting a comeback. He faces a primary challenger from the Palin-endorsed businessman, Brian Murphy. Unlike Joe Miller in Alaska or Christine O’Donnell in Delaware, Murphy’s continued to struggle in the fundraising department, and the Tea Party Express has yet to come bail him out. Palin’s endorsement, however, has allowed Ehrlich to portray himself as – shockingly – a moderate, something he was far from while in office. Ehrlich’s expected to win, but a weak showing could presage some conservative discontent with him…which may bode well for O’Malley in November. (JMD)

• MD-01 (R): Suburban Baltimore state Senator Andy Harris – who teabagged then-Rep. Wayne Gilchrist before teabagging was popular and who we can thank for incumbent Dem. Frank Kratovil – is back for a rematch, but only if he can get past self-funding businessman Rob Fisher. The traditional divides are here again, with Harris being from NOT the Eastern Shore and Fisher being from the one area that could qualify as a population center, Salisbury. Neither candidate has been short on resources, with Harris having spent $664k and Fisher having spent $425k. Gilchrist, one of the last moderate GOPers in the House, has gone ahead and endorsed Fisher; Kratovil, of course, would prefer to face the poor ideological and geographic fit that is Harris. (JMD)

• MD-04 (D): Incumbent Donna Edwards did us all a huge favor by ridding us of the incredibly douchey Albert Wynn in the primary in 2008 – Wynn soon proved his douchebaggery by taking his marbles and going home early, forcing the state of Maryland to outlay for a special election. Soon after Edwards took office though, various state and local officials began rumblings about a primary challenge, usually with some variation on her being too liberal …for an 85% Obama district. The only one who ultimately took the plunge was State Delegate Herman Taylor, who represents a section of upcounty Montgomery. It’s unclear how much traction Taylor’s been able to get, but his measly $60k raised total isn’t the best sign for him. Two other perennial candidates round out this field. (JMD)

• NH-Sen (R): For a while, it looked like New Hampshire AG Kelly Ayotte’s chief competition would come from her left in the form of pro-choice businessman Bill Binnie. However, judging by the most recent polls, Binnie’s failure to gain any traction proves that running as a moderate within the modern Republican party is, in the words of one Edward M. Rooney, buying yourself a first-class ticket to nowhere. Instead, Ayotte appears to be subject to a credible late surge by the superbly-named attorney Ovide Lamontagne. Lamontagne is a favorite of movement conservatives but one who failed to attract the support of the scalp-collecting insurgents at the Tea Party Express. The two most recent polls have shown Ovide making a dramatic late run, but still coming up a few points short: Magellan has Ayotte up by 4, while PPP gave Ayotte a 7-point lead. National movement support never quite gelled consistently for Lamontagne, as he could only muster the backing of Laura Ingraham to match Sarah Palin’s full-throated Ayotte endorsement. Lamontagne is no stranger to upsets, though – he famously rocked the establishment in 1996 by winning the gubernatorial nomination that year. (JL)

• NH-01 (R): Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta, the early front-runner for the GOP nod to take on sophomore Dem Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, stumbled out of the gate with tepid early fundraising and reports of a bar fight dogging him in the press. A bunch of rich businessman sensed an opportunity and jumped into the ring, including Richard Ashooh, Bob Bestani, and Sean Mahoney. Mahoney, who’s pumped $900K of his own money into the race, seems to be the candidate to watch (the New Hampshire Democratic Party has even put out negative mailers against him). Guinta’s been dogged by even more bad press lately (including criticism from ex-Rep. Jeb Bradley over some weird financial irregularities), but it might be a mistake to count the teabaggish mayor out. (JL)

• NH-02 (D/R): Progressive fave Ann McLane Kuster is kicking ass in money and polls over the Joe Lieberman-associated Katrina Swett for the Dem nod to replace Paul Hodes in the House. For the GOP, ex-Rep. Charlie Bass appears in control against radio personality and proto-teabagger Jen Horn (whom Hodes clobbered in 2008), though Bass actually felt compelled to hit the airwaves earlier this month. A Horn upset here is probably be too much to hope for, but one can always dream. (JL)

• NY-Sen (R): Despite recruitment efforts by everyone from Karl Rove to Michael Bloomberg, the trio of contenders who emerged to challenge appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand is decidedly lacking in stature. The state GOP put two men on the ballot at their convention: David Malpass, a former Reagan and Bush I advisor – and also the (clearly former) Chief Economist at Bear Stearns, and Bruce Blakeman, a one-time Port Authority commissioner (i.e., friend of George Pataki’s) and failed candidate for Comptroller in 1998. But as irony would have it, the one guy who had to petition to get on the ballot, two-term Westchester ex-Rep. Joe DioGuardi (and father of former American Idol judge Kara), has consistently led in the polls. At least half of the electorate was still undecided even in the most recent surveys, though, so this race is potentially up for grabs. Malpass has spent $2.5 million of his own money, so he’s probably the biggest threat to DioGuardi, who’s tossed in a million.

BTW, believe it or not, but there’s also a Republican primary for the privilege of taking on Chuck Schumer, too. Political consultant Jay Townsend has had narrow leads (with tons undecided) over former CIA officer Gary Bernsten. (D)

• NY-Gov (R): The most-touted Republican to enter the New York gubernatorial race wasn’t even a Republican – and that was the problem. The state GOP managed to recruit obnoxious anti-immigrant Suffolk County Executive Steve Levy, but Levy couldn’t formally complete a party switch in time, and failed to meet a special 50% threshold (normally it takes just 25%) to get on the ballot at the Republican convention. That left the GOP with ex-Rep. (and 2000 Hillary Clinton victim) Rick Lazio, who presumably thought he could sleepwalk his way to the nomination. But wealthy businessman Carl Paladino – one of the most revolting human beings alive today in the Empire State (click here – NSFW) – jumped into the game, spending at least $2.5 million so far and claiming he’d spend four times that. Polling has showed Paladino gaining on Lazio, and the most recent survey (by Siena – PDF) actually had them tied in the low 40s. The winner gets to take on AG Andrew Cuomo and his (at least) $24 million warchest. (D)

• NY-01 (R): What a hot mess. The GOP looked like it scored a strong recruit in wealthy businessman (what else is new?) Randy Altschuler, who has spent $2 million of his own money to date. He’s had to spend so much so early, though, because he most definitely did not clear the field. Former SEC prosecutor George Demos also entered the race, and has raised half a million bucks. That might ordinarily seem respectable, except for the fact that another guy also got in: Chris Cox, grandson of none other than Dick Nixon and son of the state party chair, Ed Cox. Cox has self-funded a million bucks so far, and boy has this three-way gotten nasty. The round-robin of attacks is too extensive to elucidate here, but rest assured that the CFQ (Cat Fud Quotient) is high indeed. Altschuler previously snagged the Conservative Party ballot line, so Rep. Tim Bishop (who has already benefitted from the flying fur) could catch a real break if Cox (or Demos) pulled out the GOP nod. (D)

• NY-10 (D): Ed Towns is a bad congressman. Ed Towns should not be in Congress. Ed Towns, sadly, is very likely to stay in Congress. He’s facing a rematch from former Real World star Kevin Powell, a weak candidate with baggage of his own who hasn’t raised much and got killed in 2008. Towns has taken no chances, though, once again spending well over a million bucks on his re-election campaign. (D)

• NY-13 (R): I’ll be honest – Staten Island Republican shenanigans baffle the fuck out of me. For reasons that have never been clear to me, they settled on lawyer Michael Allegretti as their preferred candidate (well, after trying to nominate disgraced ex-Rep. Vito Fossella for his old seat) – who also owns a share of the family business, Bayside Fuel and Oil, which just happened to employ a longtime Gambino family lieutenant back in the day. Most amusingly of all, Allegretti’s opponent Mike Grimm served on the FBI squad which was responsible for investigating the mob in the 90s – including the Bayside Fuel deal. Grimm’s profile (9/11 first responder) helped endear him to national Republican figures like Rudy Giuliani and John McCain, while the locals pretty much all cottoned to Allegretti. The race has been fiercely negative, with Grimm securing the Conservative Party line and Allegretti attacking Grimm for apparently not having a job –   and for never having voted in a GOP primary. (D)

• NY-14 (D): Hedge fund attorney and Hillary Clinton fundraiser Reshma Saujani appeared out of nowhere earlier this year to challenge Rep. Carolyn Maloney, a congresswoman whose record few had ever complained about. Saujani has pulled in an impressive $1.4 million, largely drawing on Wall Street and the Indian-American community. Maloney, though, has outspent her challenger almost two-to-one and still has $2 million on hand, about ten times what Saujani has left in the bank. Saujani has been most notable for her desire to be kinder to the financial titans who ruined our economy – a message which perhaps might resonate in the pre-war buildings along Park and Fifth Avenues. But the 14th District, which stretches from the Lower East Side to Astoria in Queens, is more diverse than you might think. With any luck, Saujani, who has run a nasty campaign, will get crushed and slink away, though she’s already promised to run again in 2012 if she loses. However, we haven’t seen any polls since a long-ago Maloney internal (which showed her crushing). (D)

• NY-15 (D): Trillion-term Rep. Charlie Rangel, the Warhorse of Ways & Means, has been laid very, very low by a slew of ethical misconduct allegations over the last few years, culminating in formal charges by the House Ethics Committee earlier this summer. For the most part, though, the political establishment has either stuck with Rangel or avoided taking sides, so his only primary opposition is fairly weak-sauce – and divided. Arrayed against Rangel are former aide Vincent Morgan, Assemblyman Adam Clayton Powell IV, and activist Jonathan Tasini. None have raised much money, and the most prominent among them, Powell, not only has some baggage but also got crushed in a prior primary challenge against Rangel back in 1994. Despite the quality of the field, Rangel has managed to spend $3.5 million out of his campaign account this cycle – though half of that has been on legal fees. (D)

• NY-23 (R): Another race with a tremendous Cat Fud Quotient. Teabaggers still love them some Doug Hoffman, who blew the special election against Rep. Bill Owens last November. But the creepy Hoffman has raised poorly since the special and has just $150K left. Meanwhile, Republicans eager for a fresh start have rallied around investment banker Matt Doheny, who has given his campaign $1 million and raised another $850K. The good news is that Hoffman has once again secured the Conservative line, while Doheny has scored a spot on the Independence Party ticket. So no matter what happens in the GOP primary (which, predictably, has been pretty negative), there will be a right-wing split in November for the second time in a row. The only poll of this race was a Hoffman internal from July showing him up by about thirty points. Still, I’m a little skeptical, as Hoffman’s surge last year was powered by a lot of outside money, which he hasn’t seen this time around. So this may well be anybody’s race. (D)

• NY-AG (D): Around a decade ago, a guy named Eliot Spitzer (whom you might know as an up-and-coming CNN talking head) started transforming the New York Attorney General’s Office into a serious activist powerhouse, investigating and pressuring all manner of corporate miscreants. While current AG Andrew Cuomo’s public approach has differed from his predecessor’s, he’s continued the pattern of going after big fish – and, like Spitzer before him, he’s using the post to seek the governor’s mansion, so this unusually potent state office is one worth keeping an eye one. The apparent front-runner is state Sen. Eric Schneiderman, who has racked up a broad array of establishment support – and consequently faced a pile-on by his opponents at a recent debate. His closest rival is probably Nassau County DA Kathleen Rice, a law-n-order suburban conservative who never voted until age 37 (in 2002). Rounding out the field are Assemblyman Richard Brodsky of Westchester, former state Insurance Commissioner Eric Dinallo, and former federal prosecutor and wealthy trial attorney Sean Coffey. The winner will face Staten Island DA Dan Donovan in the fall. (D)

• RI-01 (D): House seats in blue Rhode Island can be a lifetime sinecure if so desired, so in the rare instances they’re open, expect a free-for-all to get in. When Patrick Kennedy announced his retirement, Providence mayor David Cicilline (who’d previously declined a widely-expected gubernatorial bid) jumped in and quickly dominated the fundraising scene. A month-old Brown University poll shows former state party chair William Lynch as his closest competition, with Cicilline up 32-15. However, the race’s third wheel, wealthy businessman Anthony Gemma has hit Cicilline hard with a very negative TV blitz, while the race’s fourth wheel, state Rep. David Segal, is relying on a grassroots push from unions, so they may be in stronger position now than when that poll was taken. The winner faces Republican state Rep. John Loughlin, who faces a steep climb in this D+13 district but can exploit the harsh Dem primary as well having an open seat in this kind of climate. If Cicilline wins, he’ll be the third openly-LGBT member of Congress. (C)

• RI-02 (D): Sometimes a House seat in Rhode Island is so tempting that a Dem has to go for it even when it it’s not open. That’s what former state Rep. Betsy Dennigan is doing, challenging entrenched Rep. Jim Langevin. In an interesting choice, Dennigan isn’t making any hay out of the abortion issue, which was at issue in several other previous primary challenges to the pro-life Langevin, who hews to the party line on most other issues. Without that on the table, don’t expect much fireworks here: the month-old Brown University poll finds Langevin leading 55-12. (C)

• WI-Sen (R): Ron Johnson, wealthy owner of a plastics manufacturing concern thanks to a fair amount of help from that government he hates so much, is that rare breed of Republican: one who’s both the establishment’s preferred choice (after Tommy Thompson didn’t get in, they decided to go the self-funder route) and the fave of the teabaggers (complete with Jim DeMint’s seal of approval). Johnson has been spending heavily on advertising (although with an eye toward the general), so there’s likely to be little drama here: the only recent poll of the race comes from PPP in early July, who found Johnson leading little-known Dave Westlake 49-11. Businessman Terence Wall, who’d been Johnson’s main rival until he dropped out in a huff after the state convention, has made some noises about a late-breaking write-in bid, but is unlikely to be much of a factor either. (C)

• WI-Gov (R): This was initially touted as a bout between two local Republican heavyweights (or at least welterweights): Milwaukee Co. Executive Scott Walker, and ex-Rep. Mark Neumann, attempting a return to politics after losing a close 1998 Senate election to Russ Feingold. Neumann has the added advantage of being a wealthy real estate developer, but for whatever reason — probably the “who’s that?” factor that sets in after twelve years out of the spotlight — Neumann hasn’t gotten much traction. The most recent poll, from PPP in early July, gave Walker (head of the state’s most populous county) a 58-19 edge. Certain Dem nominee Tom Barrett has usually polled better against Neumann than Walker, so there’s somebody to root for. (C)

• WI-07 (R): Everyone assumes that hunky Ashland County DA/ex-reality star/ex-timber sports competitor Sean Duffy is well on his way to facing off against Democratic state Sen. Julie Lassa for the open seat left behind by David Obey in this D+3 district. Not so fast, there… as Mr. GOP Establishment, he still has to run the gauntlet of the inevitable teabagger challenge. He faces off against Obey’s 2008 challenger, Dan Mielke. (C)

• WI-08 (R): For such a potentially consequential general election, we have surprisingly little intelligence about the GOP primary to pick someone to go up against vulnerable sophomore Rep. Steve Kagen. There seem to be at least five viable candidates here; the one who’s raised by far the most and that the NRCC seems to be favoring, though, is the one who’s never held elective office: contractor Reid Ribble. State Rep. Roger Roth may have an inherited name rec advantage (he’s related to the area’s former Rep., Toby Roth), and former state Rep. Terri McCormick seems to be the fave among the social conservatives, so either of them may well be in position to win as well. The field is rounded out by Door County Supervisor and NHL star Marc Savard, and Brown County Supervisor and 50s crooner Andy Williams. (C)

Closing times (all Eastern time):

NH – 7pm (8pm local option)

DE – 8pm

DC – 8pm

MD – 8pm

MA – 8pm

NY – 9pm

RI – 9pm

WI – 9pm

• AK-Sen: Once again, the Swing State Project is proud to issue one of its once-in-a-blue-moon endorsements, and to do it for Scott McAdams, the Democratic nominee in Alaska. We’re two-thirds of the way to our $2,400 goal, and we’ve just hit 50 contributors, so please join in!

• CO-Sen, CO-Gov: This is a real head-scratcher: Ken Buck’s camp is out with an internal poll by POS… showing him losing (despite what a number of public polls have said)?!? The poll gives a 43-40 edge to Michael Bennet, with 5 going to the Libertarian candidate. Either this is an odd attempt to mess with Dems’ heads, or, more likely, a message to his supporters to stop taking the race for granted and to keep the contributions flowing. UPDATE: OK, this isn’t a Buck internal; it’s a joint POS/Fairbank Maslin collaboration, and it’s not said on whose behalf this poll was performed. One other bit of news from the poll: it also includes gubernatorial numbers, and John Hickenlooper is closing in on the 50% mark. He’s at 48, to 25 for Dan Maes and 15 for Tom Tancredo.

• DE-Sen: Tax liens and penalties are sort of the common cold of political scandals, but this isn’t timed well for Mike Castle, who’s trying to stave off a last-minute zone-flooding from Tea Party Express on behalf of Christine O’Donnell. Castle had to make interest and penalty payments three times on his Capitol Hill pad in 2005 and 2006, although of course that pales in comparison to O’Donnell’s long track record of ducking her bills. Meanwhile, we have a sense of what the Tea Party Express‘s fully operational battle station looks like: they’ve spent only $60K on O’Donnell’s behalf so far, but plan to have spent $250K by the primary (including more airing of their TV spot and radio ad, as well as direct mail and out-of-state phone banking).

• KY-Sen: The moneybomb shoe’s on the other foot: Jack Conway’s doing an online one-day fundraising scramble today. As of 1 pm ET, the day’s total was up to $130K. Meanwhile, against that moneybomb backdrop, is an instance of a paid Rand Paul staffer having gotten caught sockpuppeting over at Daily Kos, concern-trolling against Conway from the left.

• NH-Sen: A lot of money ($10K from various officers and employees) has flowed into Kelly Ayotte’s campaign from a decidedly sketchy company in Texas: Tax Masters, one of those companies that relies heavily on late-night advertising to generate business for helping resolve debts owed to the IRS. The company and its CEO were charged with multiple violations of Texas’s consumer protection laws, in the wake of hundreds of consumer complaints.

• OH-Sen, OH-Gov: The Columbus Dispatch offers up some truly bad numbers for the Democratic candidates in Ohio, finding Rob Portman leading Lee Fisher 50-37 in the Senate race and John Kasich leading Ted Strickland 49-37 in the governor’s race (and the GOP winning all lower statewide races too), among registered voters. One important caveat, though: the Dispatch’s poll are notoriously an all-mail-in survey (why not just poll subscribers to Literary Digest?!?), and have consistently ranked dead last in most of 538’s pollster ratings (until the most recent installment, when they managed to leap ahead of a few other members of the rogues’ gallery, including Research 2000, ARG, and Zogby Interactive).

• WA-Sen: Patty Murray leaked an internal poll today to Politico, showing that the needle has barely budged in this race between two ubiquitously-known, well-defined candidates. The Fairbank Maslin poll gives Murray a 50-45 lead, and 53/42 approval. An April internal by the same pollster, back when Dino Rossi was only considering entering the race, gave Murray an 8-point lead.

• MA-Gov: A poll from local wire service State House News Service gives a decent lead to Deval Patrick, thanks to an assist from Tim Cahill. Their first poll of the gubernatorial race has Patrick leading Republican Charlie Baker, independent Cahill, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein 34-28-18-4, among registered voters.

• MD-Gov: For every Joe Miller, there’s, well, a Brian Murphy. The Washington Post takes a quick look at the upstart GOP gubernatorial candidate, whose Sarah Palin endorsement hasn’t turned into much of anything (other than a way for Bob Ehrlich to burnish his moderate credentials). In the pre-primary reporting period (all of which covers the post-Palin period), he’s raised only $35K, including $14K from himself, leaving him with $31K CoH. Ehrlich raised $725K over the 18-day period, taking him to $2.5 million CoH, while Dem Martin O’Malley raised $267K and has $6.5 million CoH.

• MI-Gov: While organized labor is the biggest force propelling Dem Virg Bernero in Michigan, there’s one union that isn’t falling in line. The state’s largest construction union, the Michigan Regional Council of Carpenters and Millwrights, is backing Rick Snyder instead. More alarmingly for Bernero, the much-larger Teamsters haven’t endorsed yet and could conceivably go for Snyder too.

• MS-Gov: The 2011 election is only fourteen months away, and things are taking shape in Mississippi. Phil Bryant, the first-term Republican Lt. Governor, is taking steps to prepare for a bid. Businessman Dave Dennis also seems likely to run, while the state’s great-named SoS, Delbert Hosemann, also sounds like he’s interested.

• TX-Gov: We have two wildly divergent polls in Texas, both from GOP pollsters. Hill Research, on behalf of the Texas Watch Foundation (in a poll that seems primarily about homeowners’ insurance reform, but where the gube race seems to have gotten thrown-in as an attention-getter), finds Rick Perry leading Bill White by only a 42-41 margin. On the other hand, GOPAC (perhaps having gotten an advance heads-up about the Texas Watch numbers) rolled out numbers showing Perry in better shape. Their poll, via Wilson Research Strategies, gives Perry a 50-38 lead over White.

• KS-04: With polling now pretty consistently showing Mike Pompeo leading Raj Goyle by single digits in the open seat race in the 4th, the last thing the Republicans can afford here is a high-profile third-party challenge on the right. That’s what they might get, though, if businessman (and former Tic-Tac-Dough host) Wink Hartman follows through on threats to pick up the just-abandoned Libertarian ballot line. The state party has started scrambling to lean on Hartman to get him to stand down.

• NY-various: There’s a bonanza of pre-primary fundraising reports in New York (where the primary is next week). The biggest raiser among the various Republican House challengers was Chris Cox in the 1st, who raised $103K to Randy Altschuler’s $59K (although Altschuler still has a big CoH advantage). In the 23rd, the numbers were much smaller: Matt Doheny raised $41K and Doug Hoffman raised $37K, although Doheny has about three times Hoffman’s CoH.

• WV-01: On the back of the DCCC’s wave of internal polls today, here’s one more poll that probably has to go in the “good news” file: an internal poll, from POS, has Republican David McKinley trailing Dem Mike Oliverio in the open seat race in the 1st. Oliverio leads McKinley 41-36. The only other poll of this race was an Oliverio internal last month that gave him a seemingly too-good-to-be-true 52-36 lead over McKinley, but at the very least, it seems like everyone’s in agreement that Oliverio’s in pole position for now.

• Ads:

• CO-Sen: The DSCC is out with an ad in Colorado, letting Ken Buck go after himself with his own words on Social Security and the 17th Amendment

• DE-Sen: Mike Castle’s new ad is out; predictably, it goes after Christine O’Donnell for her crazy finances

• FL-Sen: First TV ad from Charlie Crist, stressing his (what else?) independence; also Kendrick Meek’s first TV ad, which is him on a swamp boat and stressing his (what else?) Dem credentials

• MO-Sen: Roy Blunt ad about how much he loves small business

• OH-Sen: Lee Fisher’s first TV ad out of the gate is negative, going after Rob Portman for being George Bush’s job-exporting trade representative

• CA-Gov: Strangely sepia-toned ad is Jerry Brown’s first, seemingly to remind older Californians about how much things sucked less when he was Governor the first time (SOTB: $1.2 million for one week… that’s California for you)

• FL-Gov: Rick Scott’s first post-primary TV ad is an attack ad against… Barack Obama? (and Alex Sink, too, I guess)

• GA-Gov: Roy Barnes goes negative against Nathan Deal on the issues of his recently-released tax returns, calling him “too corrupt even for Congress”

• SC-Gov: Nikki Haley’s first TV spot, outsider-themed with a jab at Mark Sanford

• FL-22: The new Ron Klein spot is another anti-Allen West spot, but still hammering on the tax liens instead of, well, West’s non-stop stream-of-consciousness crazy

• ID-01: Walt Minnick’s first TV spot: please disregard the “D” next to his name, because he’s independent

• IN-02: The NRCC’s first television IE of the cycle, hitting Joe Donnelly for, well, being a Democrat

• IN-08: Trent van Haaften’s first TV ad is a basic introductory spot

• PA-03: Kathy Dahlkemper’s second ad tries to cram “jobs” in there as many times as possible

• PA-06: Manan Trivedi’s first TV ad also works the outsider angle

• PA-11: Paul Kanjorski’s second ad works the Social Security privatization angle, smart in such an aged district

• PA-15: Interestingly, Charlie Dent’s first ad is a negative shot against John Callahan (on local property taxes), indicating he may be feeling some heat here

• WI-07: Julie Lassa’s second ad goes after Sean Duffy for saying that he can’t do anything to create jobs

• AFSCME: Here’s the big buy of the day: the AFSCME is shelling out $1.5 million in four states (Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, and Pennsylvania) for an ad attacking Republicans for voting against the state aid package in August)

• Rasmussen:

• DE-Sen: Chris Coons (D) 37%, Mike Castle (R) 48%

• DE-Sen: Chris Coons (D) 47%, Christine O’Donnell (R) 36%

• ID-Gov: Keith Allred (D) 36%, Butch Otter (R-inc) 52%

• ID-Sen: Tom Sullivan (D) 24%, Mike Crapo (R-inc) 63%

• MA-Gov: Deval Patrick (D-inc) 39%, Charlie Baker (R) 34%, Tim Cahill (I) 18%

• NE-Gov: Mike Meister (D) 28%, Dave Heineman (R-inc) 61%

• NV-Gov: Rory Reid (D) 33%, Brian Sandoval (R) 58%

• NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 45%, Sharron Angle (R) 45%

Rankings are ‘Tilt’ (less than 5 point race), ‘Lean’ (5-10 point race) and ‘Favored ‘(10-20 point race). Anything beyond that is ‘Solid’ for either party.

August rankings at link.

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

SENATE

Dem Tilt

IL (Which matters more, state or year? I think the latter but only just.)

NV (Rasmussen’s latest has Reid up three with leaners which is probably about right.)

WI (Basically a tie in most polling. I think the DSCC will have to bail Feingold out here.)

WA (Same deal as WI and IL.)

Rep Tilt

CO (Very few post-primary polls but looks like Buck is up. Bennet has a chance because his opponent says crazy things.)

KY (Best chance of a pickup but only because of Rand Paul.)

FL (Rubio ahead thanks to the exposure of the Dem primary but Crist still well in the game.)

Rep Lean

MO (I don’t expect Blunt to win by much but I now expect him to win.)

PA (I really hope Sestak hasn’t left it too late to try and define Toomey.)

NH (Still a chance that Ayotte isn’t the nominee.)

OH (Fisher doesn’t have the money to compete.)

Dem Lean

CA (Very close to only a tilt but CA is more Dem than WA and WI.)

CT (Maybe should be favored still but the last two polls were a worry.)

Rep Lean

NC (Unless the DSCC gets involved I don’t see Marshall getting close. Unfortunately I doubt they can afford it.)

Dem Favored

WV (Need to see more polling before moving this to leans but suspect may need to.)

Rep Favored

DE (Castle probably wins the primary but it is damaging him. I think Coons will surprise people.)

IN (Like Castle, Coats never seems to poll much above 50 but the year looks to much to overcome.)

LA (Vitter doesn’t deserve his easy ride. A Dem would be toast in an equivalent state.)

AR (I seriously doubt that Lincoln loses as she polls but she is certain to lose.)

AK (Not as hopeful as some about this but I guess you never know.)

ND safely in the GOP column.

GOVERNORS

Dem Tilt

OR (Kitzhaber goes negative and not a moment too soon.)

MN (Would be leans if not for the latest poll.)

MD (O’Malley consistently leads if by a small amount.)

FL (Exit of Chiles is a boost to Sink but this is no slam dunk despite Scott’s negatives.)

MA (I suspect Cahill’s support will start to bleed away but Patrick should still squeeze past Baker.)

Rep Tilt

GA (Deal was probably the best opponent for Barnes but still tough this year.)

IL (Hopefully Quinn continues to close but he is still behind for now.)

ME (Not much polling here so anything could happen as in the primaries.)

VT (The primary may have been civil but overtime is hurting.)

NM (Denish has work to do but all is not lost.)

WI (Walker missteps mean I’m more bullish here than I was.)

CA (Whitman barrage finally takes a toll in the polls. I still think Brown can turn it around.)

Dem Lean

CT (Malloy has the advantage but I wonder if Foley’s money will yet tighten things up.)

Rep Lean

AZ (Brewer’s debate mess gives Goddard a chance.)

MI (Snyder has appeal to Dems but hopefully Bernero can yet catch fire.)

PA (Probably ends up closer than the polls suggest but not much chance of an Onorato win.)

TX (Polling seems to be moving this out of grasp which is a damn shame.)

OH (Can’t quite believe Kasich is doing this but believe we must.)

Dem Favored

CO (Governor Hickenlooper I presume!)

HI (Abercrombie likely wins primary and then the general.)

RI (Either Chafee wins or Caprio wins, neither is a Republican so we can safely count this as a Dem pickup.)

Rep Favored

SC (If any of this category tighten it will be here. Pushback in the base to Haley gives Sheheen an opening. Possibly.)

OK (Askins may yet make this competitive but probably not enough.)

IA (Ugly numbers for the incumbent means defeat.)

NV (Rory needs to avoid a blowout to help his dad.)

AL (Sparks is good but Bentley is better and this is Alabama in a heavily GOP year.)

ID (Not as big a lead for the GOP as one would expect but it is still Idaho.)

KS (Theoretically Holland may be able to exploit the state moderate/conservative split but I doubt he gets close.)

SD (Daugaaurd is popular and in 2010 that is more than enough for a Republican in a red state.)

TN (Haslam has some moderate credentials so could be worse I guess.)

AK (Parnell should be safe but Berkowitz will make him work for it.)

WY (No Freudenthal means no Dem governor.)

UT (This is Utah.)

Projection

SENATE – GOP +6

GOVERNORS – GOP +7

• AK-Sen: I’ve got plenty of hearsay and conjecture. Those are kinds of evidence. (Ah, Lionel Hutz, always good for a quote.) Anyway, there’s lots of those kinds of evidence burning up the Twittersphere lately: maybe most significantly, the rumor that Alaska Dems are looking into getting Scott McAdams to stand down and inserting ex-Gov. Tony Knowles (the 2004 loser against Murkowski) to run in his place. Under state law, McAdams would have until 48 days before election day to drop out, but the wisdom of such a move seem uncertain, as McAdams is at least a fresh face and Knowles has two-time-loser taint. Also out there: that Lisa Murkowski is looking into some sort of independent run, which would probably have to take write-in form (although Taniel points out major practical problems with that). One other very weird alternative mentioned for Murkowski: commandeering the secessionist Alaska Independence Party. UPDATE: The Alaska state Dem party is about to hold a conference call with McAdams in which he lays out a path to victory, which certainly suggests that they aren’t abandoning him.

• NV-Sen: Is Sharron Angle following Michele Bachmann down that dark and winding path to… well, she’s already in Crazy Town, so whatever’s around the next bend beyond that. In an interview with a right-wing talk show host Bill Manders last year, Angle agreed with Manders that there were “domestic enemies” “in the walls of the Senate and the Congress.”

• WI-Sen: Here’s one more installment in the ongoing story of teabaggers adopting the “government money for me, not for thee” line of argumentation (a la Clint Didier and Stephen Fincher’s long history of happily accepting farm subsidies), disregarding the jaw-dropping hypocrisy that goes with it. It’s been revealed that Ron Johnson’s company, Paccur, got a $2.5 million government loan to pay for a 40,000 square foot expansion to its facilities. The revelation comes about a week after he said in an interview: “I have never lobbied for some special treatment or for a government payment… When you subsidize things…it doesn’t work through the free market system very well.”

• MD-Gov: Here’s a poll showing better-than-usual results for incumbent Dem governor Martin O’Malley, locked in a rematch battle with ex-Gov. Bob Ehrlich. The OpinionWorks poll, on behalf of a non-profit called Center Maryland, gives O’Malley a 47-41 lead over Ehrlich, and also gives O’Malley a respectable 49/39 approval.

• MI-Gov: Tough nerd and GOP gubernatorial nominee Rick Snyder picked a running mate: state Rep. Brian Calley, a 33-year-old who helps Snyder fill his political-inexperience and social-conservative gaps. One wrinkle: Calley was already the GOP nominee for a state Senate seat, so it’s unclear how filling that vacancy will now play out. Dem nominee Virg Bernero will also need to pick a running mate ahead of this weekend’s nominating convention.

• NY-St. Sen.: Campaign ads in local newspapers in state Senate races are usually a little too down in the weeds for even SSP, but take a look at this amazingly thorough anti-Greg Ball demolition derby run by a group called “Republicans for Truth” as we approach the GOP primary in open SD-40 in New York. Remember, Ball is the wacko we could have been running against in NY-19 if Nan Hayworth hadn’t priced him out.

• Ads: We’re awash in new ads today (as I’m sure we will be every day until November), with the biggest-ticket one seeming to be a new anti-Joe Sestak ad in PA-Sen from Rove front-group American Crossroads. The even more mysterious Americans for Job Security are also wading into MO-Sen, launching an anti-Robin Carnahan radio ad. TV spots are also up in various House races: in FL-22 for Allen West, in KY-06 for Andy Barr, in TX-17 for Bill Flores, and in AZ-08 for Gabby Giffords. NWOTSOTB, in all cases.

• Blogosphere: Congratulations to friend-of-the-site Nate Silver, whose little blog called 538.com has completed its ascendancy, getting relaunched today as part of the New York Times’ online operations.

• History: New Orleans has a particularly fascinating and byzantine political history; with the LA-02 primary fast approaching, here’s an interesting long article on the rise (and potential decline) of African-American political power in the Big Easy.

• Rasmussen:

• CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 44%, Carly Fiorina (R) 43%

• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 42%, Mark Kirk (R) 40%

• OR-Sen: Ron Wyden (D-inc) 56%, Jim Huffman (R) 36%

• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 46%, Ron Johnson (R) 47%

• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 47%, David Westlake (R) 40%

• LA-Sen: That ginned-up internal poll that Chet Traylor released a few days ago (showing him within 12 of David Vitter) seems to have served its intended purpose, for what its worth: the contributions have started coming in at a much greater pace over the last few days. He pulled in $30K in three days, almost doubling up on the $42K he raised over the previous duration of his campaign (and most of which he blew on his new anti-Vitter radio ad). And this can’t please Vitter, either: a local paper is reporting to Vitter’s troublesome ex-aide, Brent Furer, traveled back from DC to Louisiana several times on the public’s dime, at points that just happened to coincide with his various trials on charges of drunk driving.

• NV-Sen: Sharron Angle seems to be wandering all over the map in search of a position on Social Security privatization, one that’s extreme enough to satisfy her teabagging core supporters but not so extreme that it scares off, y’know, old people. She’s removed the words “transitioned out” from her website (regarding Social Security) but, when pushed yesterday, said that she hasn’t changed her view that that’s how she feels about it (despite running ads claiming that she wants to “save” Social Security).

• PA-Sen: Joe Sestak, meet Raul Labrador? As you probably know, there’s a common-sense rule of thumb that you don’t release your internal polls unless they show you, y’know, ahead of your opponent. Nevertheless, somebody (unclear whether it was the DSCC or the Sestak camp) leaked NBC a Peter Yang internal of the race giving Pat Toomey a 2-point lead over Sestak, 46-44. Obviously, that’s not designed to create a sense of Sestak’s inevitable victory as most internals are designed to do, but it’s pushback against this week’s PPP poll, where the switch to LVs hurt Sestak’s numbers, probably oriented toward letting contributors know that this race is still in play. The DSCC has also been nailing Toomey on the rather arcane issue of derivatives, which had a key role in inflating the asset bubble that popped and left all our faces covered in pink sticky goo in 2008. Somehow I doubt more than 1% of the nation can offer a cogent explanation of what derivatives (especially credit default swaps) do, but at any rate, they’ve tracked down three separate times when Toomey as Congressman, on the House floor, praised the use of derivatives, something he’s lately tried to distance himself from.

• WA-Sen: We’re up to 67% reporting in Washington, with the numbers not really having budged from Tuesday night (still 46 Patty Murray, 34 Dino Rossi, 12 Clint Didier), but more than three-quarters of the remaining precincts are in the Dem-friendly King, Pierce, and Snohomish Counties, so look for some future budging. Meanwhile, here’s a comparison that only true politics junkies will get… remember Fred Heineman? (The one-term Republican House member from NC-04 swept in in 1994, who then said that his $183,000 salary made him “lower-middle-class” and that the middle class extended up to $750K, and promptly got swept out in 1996.) Dino Rossi has apparently decided that he should be Washington’s answer to Heineman, as he essentially said that one-third of Washingtonians make over $200K per year. More specifically, he said 2.5 million Washingtonians would benefit from keeping the Bush-era tax cuts for those making more than $200K/yr. (In reality, 105K households, or 1.6% of the state’s population, fit that profile.)

• CA-Gov: Here’s an iceberg in the way for the serene cruise of the Queen Meg: activists at a convention of state conservatives this weekend plan a rude welcome for her. They plan to lambaste her on her non-extreme positions on an Arizona-style immigration law in California, and her support for greenhouse gas-limiting Proposition 19 23. Also, here’s some quantitative evidence for something that I’ve long suspected: Whitman has so oversaturated the airwaves with advertising that it went well past the point of having its desired effect and is now just getting people pissed off at her. A Jerry Brown staffer leaked that nugget from internal polling, finding that her own advertising has helped Whitman with 8% of voters and hurt her with 27% of voters.

• IA-03: Hot on the heels of the David Rivera story in FL-25, here’s another uncomfortable blast from the past for another Republican House candidate: records reveal that Brad Zaun, the GOP’s nominee against Leonard Boswell, had to be told by West Des Moines police to stay away from his ex-girlfriend after a late night visit to her house to pound on her windows and call her names.

• MO-03, MO-04: Odd little pollster We Ask America seems to be entering another period of being prolific, as now they’re out with a couple House polls from the underserved state of Missouri. They find Russ Carnahan fairly comfortable against Republican challenger Ed Martin in the 3rd, leading 48-39, but find veteran Dem Ike Skelton in a tighter race in the 4th, leading Vicky Hartzler 45-42. Skelton still draws the support of 27% of Republicans and 37% of indies, crucial to surviving this dark-red district.

• CfG: The Club for Growth is starting to switch gears from primaries (where they seem to have had a more productive run this year than in previous cyles) to the general. They’ve endorsed four Republican challengers who all cleared the primary bar: Stephen Fincher in TN-08, Todd Young in IN-09, Mick Mulvaney in SC-05, and Tim Griffin in AR-02.

• Ads: The most attention-grabbing ad today seems to be from Indiana Dem Joe Donnelly, who already tried to distanced himself from “the Washington crowd” in his previous ad. Now he’s basically thrown in the towel on trying to fight the messaging war and just start running with Republican memes, touting his opposition in his newest ad to “Nancy Pelosi’s energy tax.” Other ads worth checking out today include an RGA ad for Duke Aiona in HI-Gov, a Joyce Elliott ad in AR-02, a Michelle Rollins spot in DE-AL, and a Mike McIntyre ad in NC-07.

• Rasmussen:

• MD-Gov: Martin O’Malley (D) 45%, Bob Ehrlich (R) 44%

• NV-Gov: Rory Reid (D) 36%, Brian Sandoval (R) 52%

• WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D) 48%, Dino Rossi (R) 44%

• CO-Sen: On the Democratic side, we have a heart-warming love-in between Michael Bennet and Andrew Romanoff, bitter rivals until about 48 hours ago. Romanoff said supporting Bennet was “an easy call,” while Bennet praised Romanoff for his stances on the issues, especially campaign finance reform. On the Republican side, well, there are no plans for a comparable unity event between Ken Buck and Jane Norton. Buck did raise some eyebrows with news that he went the full-on Paulist last year, though, lauding the gold standard and saying the main thing that would keep us from doing it is because there isn’t enough gold available to do so (well, maybe we could stimulate the economy by hiring hundreds of thousands of grizzled prospectors to go out and find us that gold…).

• DE-Sen: Is this a sign of unprecedented confidence in Delaware, as the GOP is spinning it… or worries that they need to bolster their preferred candidate Mike Castle, over unelectable-in-November Christine O’Donnell in the primary? The national party is sending three full-time staffers to work on the ground game in Delaware, which is three more than they do most cycles.

• FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek is out with an internal poll from Diane Feldman, giving him an 8-point lead over Jeff Greene, 38-30, after a week in which Greene’s yacht (and the vomit that it was caked with) seemed to be the main story figuring in the press about the Senate race this week. (Perhaps confirming these numbers: Greene is now engaged in the last refuge of a guy about to lose a race, which is to start threatening libel suits, here against the St. Petersburg Times for its look into his real estate transactions.) Meek’s also bolstered by two new anti-Greene IEs for TV spots, for a total of $260K from “Florida Is Not For Sale.”

• KY-Sen: The GOP seems to have let Rand Paul off his leash a little in the last few weeks, but between his Fancy Farm performance and some new items, they may be rethinking a return to his undisclosed location. Paul just said that eastern Kentucky’s drug problem (where meth runs rampant and marijuana growth is common) is not “a pressing issue,” and he topped that off by ditching local affiliate Fox reporters after taping a national Fox TV appearance in Lexington, in their own studio.

• PA-Sen: If you’ve been wondering where the DSCC was going to launch its first IEs of this year, Pennsylvania seems like it’s a good place to start. They’re spending $452K on running an ad highlighting Pat Toomey’s Wall Street background (good for 300 GRPs in Philly, 400 in Pittsburgh, and more in selected smaller markets). This will let Joe Sestak focus on marshalling his resources, as is his wont, while keeping the pressure on Toomey, who’s been advertising continually.

• SC-Sen: In case you were wondering if South Carolina could get any more farcical, Dem nominee Alvin Greene just finally got indicited on his pending obscenity charges for showing porn to a college student in a computer lab. I have no idea what the trial’s timetable is, but maybe Dems could actually get a new candidate in there if he’s convicted before November?

• CO-Gov: Ruh roh. The Colorado rumor mill has Dan Maes, the guy who swore he wouldn’t drop out, meeting with the state GOP about… dropping out. They’ve already been conspicuous in their silent non-support of Maes, who won Tuesday’s primary. Despite the meeting, though, Colorado Pols still seems to think that the posture from the Maes camp is one of a man who isn’t dropping out, and he’s meeting with them to try and get some additional support. At any rate, something would need to happen by Sep. 3, at which point the November ballot is finalized.

• MD-Gov: Fundraising numbers are out in Maryland. Republican Bob Ehrlich has almost kept pace with Dem incumbent Martin O’Malley over the course of this year, with Ehrlich raising $3.2 million and O’Malley raising $3.3 million in ’10 (and O’Malley couldn’t fundraise until April, because of the legislative session). O’Malley’s been building up funds for a longer time, though; O’Malley’s CoH advantage is 3:1, with $6.7 million banked compared to $2 million for Ehrlich.

• WY-Gov: Hmmm, this should turn the dominant media narrative about next week’s Wyoming GOP gubernatorial primary into “OMG! Palin/Bush proxy battle!” The Bush in question, though is George H.W. (41) Bush, who extended an endorsement today to Colin Simpson, the state House speaker and son of his long-time pal ex-Sen. Alan Simpson.

• MI-01: The final count’s over in MI-01, and it’s Dan Benishek by a whopping 15 votes, over state Sen. Jason Allen. The ball’s in Allen’s court now; he has until Sunday morning to file a written request for a recount that would need to allege mistakes or fraud.

• TX-17: Here’s an interesting stance from Republican challenger Bill Flores, especially considering this is a red enough district that it may be one of the few places in the country where John Boehner has positive ratings. But in response to questions whether he’d support His Orangeness for Speaker if the GOP had a majority in the House, Flores ducked the question, saying he’d cross that bridge if he got elected.

• Rasmussen:

• CO-Gov: John Hickenlooper (D) 43%, Dan Maes (R) 31%, Tom Tancredo (I) 18%

• CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 47%, Linda McMahon (R) 40%

• GA-Gov: Roy Barnes (D) 42%, Nathan Deal (R) 51%

• MN-Gov: Mark Dayton (D) 45%, Tom Emmer (R) 36%, Tom Horner (I) 10%