Tag: WI-08

• NC-Sen: Republican pollster Civitas poked at the Senate race, not doing head-to-heads but looking at favorables for Richard Burr and two of his likeliest challengers, SoS Elaine Marshall and Rep. Mike McIntyre. Marshall and McIntyre are little-known, with 12/7 favorables for Marshall and 13/10 and McIntyre (although he was at 38/12 in his district). The bad news for Burr? He’s barely doing better than them, with 31/19 favorables (meaning 50% don’t know him or have no opinion).

• NY-Sen-B: Marist dribbles out the Senate half of its newest New York poll today (Gov was yesterday), and it finds a super-tight race in the Dem primary in wake of yesterday’s sorta-kinda entry by Carolyn Maloney: Maloney leads Kirsten Gillibrand, 38-37 (compared with a 36-31 Gillibrand lead in May). Gillibrand wins against both George Pataki (46-42, up from a 46-38 deficit last time) and Peter King (48-32). Marist doesn’t do general election head-to-heads with Maloney, although for some reason they poll a GOP primary between Pataki and King (51-36 for Pataki) despite the decreasing likelihood that either of them run.

Also of interest: Bill Clinton will be appearing at a Maloney fundraiser scheduled for July 20. Clinton isn’t wading into the race with an endorsement at this point, though; this was in the works long before Maloney announced her run, as payback for Maloney’s 2008 primary support for Hillary Clinton, and he also headlined a Gillibrand fundraiser in March.

• PA-Sen: Pat Toomey got another endorsement from one of the more conservative members of Pennsylvania’s House GOP delegation: PA-09’s Bill Shuster.

• AL-Gov: The Democratic field in the governor’s race in Alabama seems to be solidifying; the last question mark, Supreme Court Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb, announced that she won’t be running. With a lot of establishment figures waiting on the fence to see if an alternative to Rep. Artur Davis and Ag Comm. Ron Sparks shows up, expect them to start choosing sides soon. Davis, meanwhile, has been staffing up with some key political players, adding Joey Ceci and David Mowery to his team (who managed the successful campaigns of freshman Reps. Parker Griffith and Bobby Bright).

• CA-Gov: Sure, California’s an expensive state, but Jerry Brown and Meg Whitman have reported gigantic hauls even by the Golden State’s outsized standards. Brown raised $7.3 million in the year’s first half, while Whitman raised $6.5 million. Steve Poizner and Gavin Newsom raised huge sums and are still far behind — Poizner raised $1.3 million and loaned himself another $4 million, while Newsom raised $1.6 million, much of it online.

• MN-Gov: The tradmed seems to be intent today on talking up Norm Coleman’s next logical step as being running for Governor of Minnesota, although Minnesota reporters and politicians in the know are trying to point out the sheer ridiculousness of that idea. (If Norm’s going to be doing any running soon, it’s running away from the FBI, as they investigate his links to Nasser Kazeminy.)

• RI-Gov: The Democratic primary for the open Rhode Island Governor’s seat was looking to be a three-way slugfest, but Lt. Gov. Elizabeth Roberts yesterday announced that she would run for re-election instead of for Gov. Although she had started staffing up for the race, she couldn’t have been encouraged by poll numbers which showed her at a disadvantage with likely opponents Treasurer Frank Caprio and AG Patrick Lynch.

• SC-Gov: Gov. Mark Sanford seems to have taken a few steps backwards this week. A snap poll from yesterday by SUSA now finds 69% of South Carolinians saying resign, as opposed to 28% saying stay. 63% say they have “no trust” in Sanford. Here’s an interesting red flag: only 20% say Lt. Gov/party boy Andre Bauer is “completely prepared” to become Governor, with 38% saying “somewhat prepared” and 34% saying “not prepared.”

• WI-Gov: Real estate developer and ex-Rep. Mark Neumann, who held WI-01 from 1994 to 1998 before losing narrowly to Russ Feingold, announced his gubernatorial candidacy yesterday. Neumann’s entry had been widely anticipated; he’ll face off against Milwaukee Co. Executive Scott Walker in the GOP primary.

• CA-45: With Rep. Mary Bono Mack having defected on the cap-and-trade vote, the rightosphere has been calling for her head. Their favored replacement, term-limited state Senator Dennis Hollingsworth, quickly said “no” to a primary challenge, so their wish-list has turned to ex-state Sens. Jim Battin and Ray Haynes and ex-state Rep. Bonnie Garcia.

• IL-14: A second GOP challenger got into the race against Rep. Bill Foster, although this guy doesn’t sound like he’ll pose much of a threat to Ethan Hastert for the nom. Jeff Danklefsen hasn’t run for office before and is “maintenance manager for a property management company.”

• LA-03: The Hill reported last week that Democratic efforts to find a replacement to Rep. Charlie Melancon have focused on state Rep. Gary Smith, who was going to run for the open seat in 2004 but deferred to Melancon. State Rep. Fred Mills was also interested, but state Rep. Damon Baldone, who might be the highest-profile candidate, is about to run in a special election for a state Senate seat and is unlikely to follow that with a U.S. House run.

• PA-06: With the 2nd quarter just wrapped up, look for lots of financial reports to start getting leaked. Here’s a nice place to start: Doug Pike, in the 6th, is looking at a haul of over $500K for the quarter, thanks a recent D.C. fundraiser starring Allyson Schwartz and Patrick Murphy.

• WI-08: We’re building up a backlog of Republicans trying to take on Rep. Steve Kagen. Businessman Reid Ribble jumped into the field, joining Door Co. Supervisor Marc Savard and Brown Co. Supervisor Andy Williams.

• WV-02: With some prodding from the DCCC, Gov. Joe Manchin’s former general counsel, Carte Goodwin, is looking into challenging Rep. Shelly Capito Moore in the Charleston-based 2nd.  

• KY-Sen: Jim Bunning’s conference calls with reporters are always good for comedy gold, and his most recent one was no exception, as he heads further off the reservation and out into Howard Beale territory: he referred to Mitch McConnell as a “control freak,” and said he’d be better off without McConnell’s endorsement. He also challenged a reporter, who’d questioned his fitness to serve, to an arm-wrestling match.

• NY-Sen-B: Another primary challenger to Kirsten Gillibrand dropped out of the race, but unlike Steve Israel’s disappearance, this one barely made a ripple in the pond. Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer said he’ll run for re-election instead, citing Barack Obama’s desire for a clear path (nothing about an actual phone call from the POTUS, though). Gillibrand is also starting to rack up endorsements from some of her former House colleagues — Maurice Hinchey and Yvette Clarke — as well as state Senate leader Malcolm Smith, Assemblyman Peter Rivera (who was one of her loudest opponents at first), and NARAL New York.

• MN-Sen: The NRSC has better places to spend its money (like trying to salvage NH-Sen, OH-Sen, and MO-Sen), but they’re giving $750,000 to help Norm Coleman with his legal bills in his prolonged fight to get back his seat (or at least keep it empty as long as possible). Meanwhile, Rasmussen now finds that Minnesotans want Coleman to concede right now, 54-41.

• MO-Sen: New (likely) entrant to the race Tom Schweich has wasted no time in lighting Rep. Roy Blunt up like a Christmas tree. Responding to Blunt’s criticisms of a one-time donation by Schweich to Claire McCaskill, Schweich referenced Blunt’s “vintage Washington-style smear campaign” and made fun of Blunt’s big poll gap against Robin Carnahan. How sad is it (for Blunt) that he’s having already playing defense against a never-elected law professor instead of Carnahan?

• UT-Sen: Bob Bennett, suddenly facing a likely primary challenge from AG Mark Shurtleff, got high-profile help from Mitt Romney, who cut a TV spot for Bennett. Bennett’s decision to spend big and spend now may be timed to encourage Shurtleff to think more about the 2010 governor’s race that also just materialized.

• MA-Sen: Harry Reid backed down today on yesterday’s comments that Ted Kennedy’s cancer is in remission and that he’ll be back in the Senate after Memorial Day. He said he’ll leave the timeline up to Kennedy and his doctors.

• OK-Sen: Tom Coburn told the Tulsa World that he’ll announce on June 1 what he’ll do with his political future. (Not sure if that’s real world June 1, or Mark Kirk June 1.)

• NY-Gov: Rasmussen takes their first look at the NY-Gov morass. No big surprises: David Paterson has 31/67 approvals. Paterson loses 58-30 to Rudy Giuliani and 47-33 to George Pataki, while Andrew Cuomo beats Giuliani 55-37 and Pataki 57-29. Meanwhile, the GOP is putting together a Plan B in the likelihood that, as recently rumored, Rudy doesn’t even show up; with Rick Lazio exciting nobody, they’re increasingly interested in Erie County Exec Chris Collins.

• WA-Gov: Yes, it’s never too early to start thinking about 2012. AG Rob McKenna, the only Republican who poses a real threat to Dems in this blue state, seems to be staffing up with an eye toward bigger electoral challenges, hiring Randy Pepple (a prominent Republican strategist) as his new chief of staff.

• TN-03: Robin Smith, Tennessee’s GOP chair, quit her job in order to focus full-time on exploring the TN-03 race (to replace the retiring Zach Wamp, running for Governor). Insiders view Smith as the likely frontrunner for the GOP nod; she faces Bradley Co. Sheriff Tim Gobble in the primary, and maybe state Sen. Bo Watson as well.

• GA-12: Another Republican is getting into the race against Rep. John Barrow in this rural Georgia district, despite Wayne Mosely’s made-up statistics that he’s one of the NRCC’s Top 3 recruits. Carl Smith is the fire chief and former city councilor of “Thunderbolt.” (Yes, it’s a real town. I checked the atlas.)

• WI-08: Rep. Steve Kagen also got another Republican challenger: Brown County Supervisor Andy Williams, who represents De Pere on the county board. Marc Savard (Door County Supervisor) is already in the race, so GOP voters will apparently think they’re choosing between an NHL player and the guy who sang “Moon River.”

• FL-AG: Bill Nelson is trying to broker a truce to avoid a three-way primary between state Sen. Dan Gelber, Rod Smith (’06 gube candidate) and state Sen. Dave Aronberg for the AG slot. This could be a pretty important downballot test for Dems here — if a Dem could win this race, they could be the star player of the farm team in Florida for quite some time. (J)

• NY-20: As we pass the two-week mark on the special election, Jim Tedisco has a new TV ad out that’s apparently the first salvo in his new decision to run far, far away from those mean national Republicans. Says Tedisco: “Like the president said, we’re not Republicans or Democrats, we’re Americans. And that’s the team I’m on.” So this is what we’ve come to, in just a few short years… a panicked and fearful Republican has to abandon the noble American rhetorical tradition of attack ads, and instead stoop to craven positive messaging?

• PA-Sen: Shortly after publicly spurning attempts by Democratic bigwigs to get him to party-switch, Arlen Specter sends up an interesting trial balloon: he may consider running as an independent in 2010, with the understanding that he would continue to caucus with Republicans. Since Pennsylvania has a sore loser law, he’d have to decide ahead of time to take this route rather than only after losing the GOP primary. The article gives the last word to Joe Lieberman: “I’d be delighted to have him in my caucus.”

• Maps: Pew Research Center has released a really interesting series of maps showing migration patterns between the four census regions of the country. The results shouldn’t be surprising (the most dominant pattern is northeast to south, followed by midwest to south, with the west basically holding steady), but they illustrate what we’re looking at with redistricting in 2010 (and also illustrates why we’re starting to see better results for Dems in the non-Deep parts of the South).

• Media: On a personal note for me, my daily newspaper is dead; long live my daily newspaper. This is the first day with no dead-tree edition of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer in about 150 years, but as you can see, seattlepi.com (with a dramatically reduced staff) just keeps humming right along (which doesn’t really affect me, since I was part of the problem; I only read only it online for free). Time will only tell whether this is the first bold step in reimagining the media business… or one more nail in journalism’s coffin as ‘newspapers’ keep moving toward aggregating other people’s information and not doing the actual work of reporting.

• WI-08: Republican John Gard, who lost two consecutive races to Democrat Steve Kagen, tells a local Fox affiliate that it is “highly unlikely” that he’ll run in 2010. Meanwhile, Door County Board of Supervisors member Mark Savard is in the race, and is already running radio ads. (J)

Roll Call has released a batch of new SurveyUSA House race polls (10/4-5, likely voters) with lots of good news for Democrats. In this post, we’ll look at their numbers for Democratic incumbents. DavidNYC has results for their polls of IL-10, NC-08, and NY-29 here.

IN-09 (9/8-10 in parens):

Baron Hill (D-inc): 53 (50)

Mike Sodrel (R): 38 (39)

Eric Schansberg (L): 7 (5)

(MoE: ±4%)

Sodrel has been on a consistently downward trend ever since SUSA started tracking this race — back in July, he was at 42%. It looks like he picked the wrong year to mount a comeback. Remarkably, though perhaps not surprisingly given the tossup nature of Indiana this year, McCain only leads Obama by 49-47 in this R+7 district. To put that in perspective, Bush crushed Kerry by a 59-40 margin in this CD in 2004.

NH-01:

Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc): 50

Jeb Bradley (R): 41

Bob Kingsbury (L): 3

Peter Bearse (I): 3

(MoE: ±4%)

This is the first poll we’ve seen giving Shea-Porter a clear lead. For what it’s worth, I like SUSA better than I like Research 2000 or the UNH’s flawed Granite State Poll, so these numbers are particularly pleasing. In the Presidential race, Obama is leading McCain by 52-45 here.

PA-04:

Jason Altmire (D-inc): 54

Melissa Hart (R): 42

(MoE: ±4%)

What’s particularly impressive about this number for Altmire is that McCain has a wide lead over Obama in this R+2.6 district: 51-43. That’s similar to the 54-45 margin that Bush carried this district by in 2004, so it doesn’t look like McCain’s “coattails” will cause Altmire too much damage. The only other poll we’ve seen of this race, a Hart internal, gave Altmire a 49-44 lead.

WI-08:

Steve Kagen (D-inc): 54

John Gard (R): 43

(MoE: ±4%)

A much better result than John Gard’s internal polling has been telling us. Special bonus finding: Obama is leading McCain’t by 52-45 in this R+4 district.

The DCCC has filed nearly $1.6 million in media buys in support of House Democratic candidates tonight. Here’s the damage:

This is on top of $1.4 million in media buys filed in 15 other districts yesterday. Tonight marks the first time that the DCCC has spent money on TV ads in LA-06, NJ-03, NM-02, NV-03, and WI-08.

For more details on these and other expenditures, please consult SSP’s Independent Expenditure Tracker.

MN-01: The Tarrance Group for Brian Davis and the NRCC (9/17-18, likely voters, 8/17-18 in parens):

Tim Walz (D-inc): 50 (54)

Brian Davis (R): 32 (27)

Greg Mikkelson (I): 4 (4)

Undecided: 14 (16)

(MoE: ±5.7%)

Kudos to Brian Davis for releasing an obviously non-rogered poll, as these numbers paint a pretty bleak portrait for the Republicans here. On the generic ballot, the DFL leads the GOP by 44-39, and McCain leads by 45-43. Lagging behind the generic ballot this badly, Davis would need a series of miracles in order to pull off an upset here.

NH-02: Public Opinion Strategies for Jennifer Horn and the NRCC (9/16-17, likely voters):

Paul Hodes (D-inc): 43

Jennifer Horn (R): 39

(MoE: ±5.7%)

Maybe I’m being a bit too kneejerk here, but I just flat-out refuse to believe these numbers. And even if they were not far off, with only $146K in the bank, Horn doesn’t have the kind of resources she needs to turn this D+2.7 district red.

WI-08: Public Opinion Strategies for John Gard (9/16-17, likely voters, July in parens):

Steve Kagen (D-inc): 46 (46)

John Gard (R): 45 (45)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

I’m inclined to believe that this race is fairly close, but I don’t know if it’s this close. Still, Gard’s polls are all we’ve got on this race so far.

(From the diaries – promoted by James L.)

New GOP internal poll in WI-08, h/t Politico, from Public Opinion Strategies (7/8-7/9, likely voters):

Steve Kagen (D-inc): 46

John Gard (R): 42

(N=400, MoE=±4.9%)

There’s reason for concern in this district; Gard’s a former Wisconsin Assembly Speaker and very narrowly outraised Kagen last quarter. The poll also shows Gard with very high name recognition (88%). McCain leads Obama in the district 46-41.

Kagen, however, has plenty of cash on hand and personal wealth he can dig into if necessary.

SSP currently rates this race as Leans Democratic.

Two weeks ago, I posted a diary on DailyKos, MyDD, Open Left, and the Swing State Project announcing the creation of the ActBlue page Protecting Our Asses.  The goals of this page are as follows:

1. To reinforce vulnerable and potentially vulnerable incumbent members of Congress with cash.

2. To reward good, progressive behavior from these incumbents.

3. To diminish or replace the need for these incumbents to seek fundraising dollars from less progressive sources such as corporate PACs and “moderate”/conservative groups.

4. To send the message that the Netroots will have your back if you have ours.

This page grows out of a couple of observations I’ve made.  The first is that the Netroots seems almost exclusively oppositional in its campaign focus.  The candidates supported the most tend to be either general election challengers to Republicans or primary challengers to disappointing Democrats.  Don’t get me wrong, I have no problem with supporting Darcy Burner or Larry Kissell or Ned Lamont.  However, I would like to see Democrats retain seats as well.  A multi-term progressive is more able to act than a freshman progressive.  This is where goal number one comes in.

The second observation is that many candidates previous supported by the Netroots have been at various times disappointing.  Perhaps this is because such candidates feel they need to drift toward the center to be re-elected.  Maybe they feel that they can take the Netroots for granted.  Maybe even they feel abandoned by the Netroots and cast their lots with the DLC, etc.  This is where the other three goals come into play.

However, some incumbents stay true to their progressive ideals, despite district dynamics and potentially tough races.  Their courage and resolve should not cost them their jobs.  Such a thing would send a devasting message: Progressivism still equals defeat.

The first candidate added to Protecting Our Asses was Carol Shea-Porter.  Today, I’m announcing the addition of Steve Kagen.  Kagen is a freshman Democrat representing the Eight District of Wisconsin.  Kagen won by two points in 2006.  His race is currently rated as “Leans Democrat” by CQ, Cook, Sabato, and Rothenberg.  The PVI for this district is a troubling R+4.  So, there is a possibility that Kagen, should he be re-elected this year, will continue to face spirited challenges in the near future.

Despite his competitive race and Republican-leaning district, Kagen is a progressive, loyal Democrat.  Kagen enjoys a 93.27 rating from Progressive Punch, which includes perfect scores on the environment, housing, government checks on corporate power, and labor rights, plus either A’s or high B’s on aid to the less privileged, education and the arts, fair taxation, healthcare, human rights and civil liberties, war and peace, and equal justice.  Kagen has voted the right way on FISA, Iraq, the surge, S-CHIP, the minimum wage, and prescription drug price negotiations, just to name a few.

Please reward Steven Kagen (and Carol-Shea Porter) for their progressive stances.  We need to keep them in Congress.

http://www.actblue.com/page/pr…

Cross-posted at Daily Kos

As a physician and medical scientist, I know something about Band-Aids.  You have to clean the wound first if you really want it to heal.  A little strip of adhesive glue and gauze is not going to get the job done.

As a Congressman, I have learned that Band-Aids are what politicians are using to “fix” our nation’s broken health care delivery system.  But you don’t have to be a doctor or a Congressman to understand that Band-Aids can’t fix a fracture.

That’s why I declined to accept the health care insurance offer from Congress.  Plainly put, I will not accept health insurance coverage until everyone I represent in Wisconsin and across America is given the same opportunity.  After all, I did not run for this office to get health care benefits.

I ran to change Washington and to guarantee access to affordable care for every citizen, everywhere in these United States.

Since voters sent me to Capitol Hill last November, I’ve been working hard to leverage support for a new approach.  My purpose is not to destroy profit centers in medicine, as some insurance industry allies will falsely argue, but to allow everyone to benefit from the efficient delivery of affordable care in a transparent and competitive marketplace.

Here’s how.

• Open Disclosure of all health care-related prices;
• Unitary Pricing so everyone gets the same discount and pays the same price for the same product or service;
• Form a Single Insurance Risk Pool to leverage down insurance prices for all citizens;
• Deductibles set at three percent of a household’s taxable federal income; and
• A Renewed Commitment to Cover all uninsured children and working parents.

I’m looking forward to seeing “Sicko” soon, and I hope it will serve as the kind of wake-up call for Washington on the need for serious health-care reform that Al Gore’s “An Inconvenient Truth” has been on the urgent issue of global warming.

Everyone knows our health care system is broken.  And  there’s no longer any mystery about why.  Rising health care costs have outpaced wages.  Solid middle-class families are being squeezed.  How can people afford to purchase insurance policies when the average premiums are about $12,000 a year for a family of four?

People simply don’t have the money.

Here’s my bottom line: No citizen – rich or poor, young or old – should be denied access to affordable health care.  Period. And no business should be be pushed to the brink of bankruptcy simply because it cares for its employees.

After more than 25 years helping to heal the wounds of families in my District, I understand our health care crisis is beyond a Band-Aid remedy.  I’m pro-cure, and so are American families.  Washington should be, too.

And until it is, I will decline my Congressional health coverage.

The Hill published an article highlighting some of the fundraising efforts of freshmen Democrats in the House.  Apparently, many are doing quite well.  David Loebsack (IA-02) has raised about $71,000.  Kirsten Gillebrand (NY-20) has raised $65,000 in PAC money alone.  Earl Perlmutter (CO-07) has raised $79,000.  Charlie Wilson (OH-06) has raised $34,000.  Paul Hodes has raised $35,000.  Jason Altmire (PA-04) and Patrick Murphy (PA-08) have both raised $50,000 in PAC money alone.  Zack Space (OH-18) and Steven Kagen (WI-08) have both raised $35,000 in PAC money.

As far as simple financial numbers go, this is good news.  All of these candidates are vulnerable to some degree.  So, if all of these House members are already off to good starts, they may be able to force out potentially strong challenges early on.

But the article also has some worrying relevations.  For one thing, Nancy Boyda (KS-02) has raised only $13,000.  Considering the presidential vote in her district (Bush won it by 20 points), Boyda is probably one of our top five most vulnerable Democrats.  Plus, she will not have Sebelius’ coattails helping her and will instead have to contend with the Republican tide at the top of the ticket from the eventual Republican nominee and Senator Pat Roberts. Finally, she will possibly face a rematch against Jim Ryun. More over the flip…

However, the thing that is more disappointing to me than Boyda’s numbers (it’s early, give her some time) is where the other candidates are getting there money.  First, relying heavily on PAC money does not give the best image.  But beyond that, it’s a question of which PACs they’re getting donations from.

Both Gillebrand and Perlmutter have taken money from Altria, which represents the makers of Marlboro cigarettes. Loebsack and Perlmutter have received contributions from the American Bankers Association PAC while Perlmutter also has donations from Comcast and JP Morgan and Loebsack has donations from the American Association of Realtors.

It’s unsettling to see any elected officials taking money from cigarette makers.  It’s worse to see Democrats, liberal Democrats at that, doing that.  And while Comcast, et al. aren’t the scourge of Satan, I also don’t like the image of elected Democrats at their beg and call.

http://www.thehill.c…

My suggestion for anyone else who feels the way I do, is to donate through the Netroots and other liberal PACs like MoveOn and Democracy for America.  The more candidates and elected officials can get from the Netroots, the less they have to rely on PACs whose goals are sometimes/often/always contrary to the goals of progressives/working people/middle class/etc.

One should also note that Netroots heroes Jerry McNerney (CA-11), Carol Shea-Porter (NH-01), John Yarmuth (KY-03), Joe Sestak (PA-07), John Hall (NY-19), and Tim Walz (MN-01) are not mentioned in the article.  We need to act now to keep these people a)in Congress by making sure they have adequate resources to be re-elected and b)from becoming corrupted by negative interests.