Swing State Project

Braun Research for the Rutgers-Eagleton Institute of Politics (9/23-26, likely voters, 8/5-8 [RVs] in parens):

John Adler (D-inc): 41 (31)

Jon Runyan (R): 39 (25)

Peter DeStefano (I): 6 (4)

Undecided: 14 (34)

(MoE: ±5.4%)

Braun offers a number of alternative takes on these numbers, including a sample of just registered voters (which included a “not voting” option), in which Adler beats donkey-powered ex-NFLer Jon Runyan by 40-31. Also note that before including tea-stained indie Peter DeStefano in the mix, Braun tested the race as between Adler, Runyan, and a “Third Party” option; in that match-up, Adler beats Runyan by 44-38. It’s interesting that once a name is plugged into the Third Party column, a dent is made in Adler’s margin. It would help if some of these teabaggers were a little more notorious…

NM-Gov: Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos (9/25-26, likely voters, 2/18-20 in parens):

Diane Denish (D): 42 (46)

Susana Martinez (R): 50 (32)

Undecided: 8 (21)

(MoE: ±2.7%)

PPP has been out of the field in New Mexico for seven months, so Martinez’s surge appears slightly more dramatic than it actually was. Any way you slice it, though, these numbers are still a bitter pill for Democrats to swallow. Given that Denish has trailed in both her own and Martinez’s polling by anywhere between 5 and 10 points, this poll suggests that the recent DGA poll purporting to show a tied race is an outlier.

While we’re at it, let’s also sweep up the the state’s three House races…

NM-01:

Martin Heinrich (D-inc): 50 (45)

Jon Barela (R): 43 (36)

Undecided: 7 (19)

(MoE: ±4.2%)

NM-02:

Harry Teague (D-inc): 47 (41)

Steve Pearce (R): 48 (43)

Undecided: 5 (16)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

NM-03:

Ben Ray Lujan (D-inc): 49 (42)

Tom Mullins (R): 43 (36)

Undecided: 8 (22)

(MoE: ±4.2%)

It makes me queasy that Ben Ray Lujan is only six points up in Tom Udall’s old district, but Teague in a dead heat and Heinrich up by 7 are results that I can live a bit more comfortably with. At least all three Democratic House incumbents are out-performing Denish.

This is utterly brazen:

Jan Brewer said Tuesday’s she might debate Terry Goddard again – but only if there’s some chance he actually could beat her.

Brewer, in an interview with Capitol Media Services, conceded that her decision to avoid a televised confrontation with her Democratic gubernatorial foe is purely political: She is leading in recent polls, with no sign of her margin narrowing.

In fact, Brewer’s gaffes during last month’s debate – she verbally stumbled, went silent for seconds and mangled her grammar – did not make a dent in her popularity. So at this point, Brewer said she sees no reason to give Goddard another shot at her.

“Maybe there would be a possibility that we would debate if my numbers starting dropping dramatically,” she said. “And, of course, I’m working hard to see that they don’t.”

Points for honesty, I suppose… though I’m not sure why she’d think that a debate rematch would help her in a squeaker! (Recall that she previously said there’d be no more debates, period – because they were too helpful for Goddard.)

Quinnipiac (9/21-26, likely voters, 9/8-12 in parens):

Richard Blumenthal (D): 49 (51)

Linda McMahon (R): 46 (45)

Undecided 4 (3)

(MoE: ±3%)

Quinnipiac (9/21-26, likely voters, 9/8-12 in parens):

Dan Malloy (D): 45 (50)

Tom Foley (R): 42 (41)

Undecided 12 (8)

(MoE: ±3%)

It does seem like that shiny object in Richard Blumenthal’s rear-view mirror is slowly getting larger and larger; the latest Quinnipiac poll of their home state has him only 3 points ahead of Linda McMahon and (barely) below the 50% mark. It doesn’t seem specific to the Senate race, though; there’s an even larger decline in the gubernatorial race, although, as with the Senate race, it seems like a chunk of that lost Dem support went to undecideds. The closing may have to do with McMahon’s saturation advertising as of late, although she may be running into the same problem as fellow self-funder Meg Whitman in trying to get to 50+1 in a blue state — she may be past the point of diminishing returns on ads (Qpac finds that, by a 56-40 margin, voters find her ads excessive and annoying).

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Richard Blumenthal (9/20-23, likely voters, no trendlines):

Richard Blumenthal (D): 52

Linda McMahon (R): 40

Undecided 5

(MoE: ±?%)

Not to worry, the Blumenthal camp was out yesterday with their own internal poll with reassuring numbers: a 12-point lead, with Blumie over 50. You might remember, though, the exact same thing happened last time Quinnipiac came out a few weeks ago, with Dems offering their own internal at the same time showing a better race. That was a DSCC poll by Hamilton Campaigns, so they aren’t really trendlines, but for argument’s sake, those results were 54-39 in favor of Blumenthal. That’s also a 3-point shift in McMahon’s direction, so that would tend to confirm some movement toward McMahon over the last few weeks — the real question, among the dueling polls, is how big the gap was before the movement.

FL-08: A poll for Sunshine State News, apparently by a firm called Voter Survey Service, finds GOPer Daniel Webster leading Rep. Alan Grayson 43-36. Tea Party candidate Peg Dunmire is at 6, and independent George Metcalfe takes 3.

IL-10: Bob Dold! must have superpowers. That’s because Bob Dold! can seemingly exist in two places at once. He claimed the city of Chicago as his “primary residence” from 2004 to 2006, and received a tax credit for doing so… but somehow also claimed the town of Winnetka as his “permanent residence,” enabling him to register and vote there during the same time period (which he did). So if I’m wrong and Bob Dold! is actually a mere mortal, it seems like it’s either tax fraud or voter fraud. Bob Dold!

IL-11: I think this is going to be the last cycle we keep track of this whip count, because now it’s becoming routine. The NRA endorsed Debbie Halvorson.

NY-20: Yep, definitely the last cycle. The NRA endorsed Scott Murphy, too.

PA-08: Yesterday we mentioned there was a Dem pol of this race, but that we lacked the toplines. Well, now we have the memo. A Harstad Research poll for the SEIU and VoteVets has Dem Rep. Patrick Murphy leading Mike Fitzpatrick 49-46 among likely voters. Interestingly, the poll shows slightly larger Murphy leads when an even tighter voter screen is applied.

VA-05: Ugh, this again? SurveyUSA’s latest in VA-05 is pretty much the same as last time (and the time before that). They have Rob Hurt leading by an eye-popping 58-35 margin, a gap not seen in any other polling. Teabagger Jeffrey Clark takes 4%.

NRCC: The NRCC claims to be out with a bunch of internal polls, but they only provide the alleged toplines for races in seven districts. Forget about field dates or margins of error – they don’t even bother to tell us who the pollsters are! If you want to know the numbers, you’ll have to click the link.

SSP TV:

• KY-Sen: Is mockery better than scolding? Compare this Jack Conway ad, which wryly features seniors saying they “don’t know what planet Rand Paul is from” when it comes to his Medicare views, with the Halvorson spot below
• WV-Sen: John Raese attacks Joe Manchin for being soft on coal and buddies with Barack Obama
• IL-11: A bunch of seniors scold Adam Kinzinger (on Debbie Halvorson’s behalf) for his anti-Social Security views
• NV-03: Grr… Dina Titus seems to have pulled her latest ad off of YouTube!

Independent Expenditures:

CO-07: American Future Fund drops $560K against Ed Perlmutter

A massive stack of DCCC outlays:

AL-02
AR-01
AZ-05
GA-02
HI-01
IA-03
IL-10
IL-14
MD-01
MI-01
MI-07
MO-04
MS-01
NC-08
NY-24
OH-13
OH-16
PA-03
PA-11
SC-05
VA-02
VA-11
WI-07
WV-01

Abt SRBI, Inc for the Washington Post (9/22-26, likely voters, 5/3-6 in parens):

Martin O’Malley (D-inc): 52 (47)

Bob Ehrlich (R): 41 (47)

(MoE: ±4%)

Nice movement for Martin O’Malley here. Bob Ehrlich’s problem? Although he’s winning independents, his message is failing to sway enough Democrats to his campaign:

Instead, despite widespread concern among Marylanders about the economy and direction of the state, Democrats have moved solidly behind O’Malley. And he is more popular now than at any time a Post poll has been taken since 2004.

In recent months, O’Malley has moved to invigorate his party’s base by adopting a campaign theme that asks voters to reject a return to Republican control. Four out of five Maryland Democrats say they are enthusiastic about voting for him, according to the poll. O’Malley has also emerged as the candidate more trusted by voters on the top issue in the race: Maryland’s economy. […]

In 2002, Ehrlich was lifted over his Democratic opponent, Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, in large part by scoring 22 percent among Democrats, according to a Washington Post exit poll that year. Ehrlich, in his losing reelection bid four years later, mustered 15 percent of the Democratic vote. Now, only 10 percent of self-identified Democrats say they back Ehrlich in the re-match.

Among registered voters, O’Malley’s lead is 49-35, and his job approval rating sits at 57-33. In a year where incumbent Dem Governors have been getting shellacked in the polls, the O’Malley camp has got to be pleased with these numbers.

CBS News/NY Times (9/23-27, likely voters, no trend lines):

Lee Fisher (D): 34

Rob Portman (R): 45

Undecided: 18

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 42

John Kasich (R): 43

Undecided: 11

(MoE: ±3.2%)

Ipsos for Reuters (9/23-25, likely voters, 8/6-8 in parens):

Lee Fisher (D): 37 (36)

Rob Portman (R): 50 (43)

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 46 (39)

John Kasich (R): 47 (48)

(MoE: ±4%)

More of the same for Lee Fisher, a guy whose campaign has few true believers these days. But what’s this? Two polls showing Gov. Ted Strickland only down by a point? That’s the best math we’ve seen for Strickland since May. Even recent polls from Rasmussen and the University of Cincinnati have this race in the low single-digits. Is it reasonable to hope that Ted Strickland has a fighting chance to hold this crucial office, despite the months-long narrative that Ohio Democrats are on the ropes?

• AK-Sen: Daily Kos just added Scott McAdams to its Orange to Blue list, so if you’re still looking to throw some money in his direction, you can do so via Big Orange. Meanwhile, Lisa Murkowski is trying to gear up her write-in campaign, and with Ted Stevens having been laid to rest this week, she’s mulling whether to roll out those ads featuring Stevens that she had ready to go pre-primary but pulled because of his death. This can’t be good news for Murkowski, though: Rep. Don Young, more from the Murkowski/Stevens wing of the local GOP than the teabagger wing, is having a bout of self-preservation and is staying neutral, not endorsing anyone in the race. Finally, here’s one more page in Joe Miller’s ongoing saga of milking the system that he hates so darn much: when new to Alaska (but after he’d bought his expensive house and started working as an attorney), he obtained an indigent hunting/fishing license that required an income of less than $8,200/yr.

• DE-Sen: Christine O’Donnell says she attended Oxford. Oh, no, wait, she took a course from something called the Phoenix Institute that “rented space from” Oxford. Why am I not surprised?

• FL-Sen: I always figured that the early love affair between the local teabaggery and Marco Rubio wouldn’t last; he seemed more from the mainstream Jeb Bush camp and it seemed more a marriage of convenience based on his charisma but mostly on the fact that he wasn’t Charlie Crist. Anyway, he’s pretty much severed the relationship and making a break for the establishment with his latest revelation, that he decided several months ago against privatizing Social Security after concluding the idea “doesn’t work.” (If Ken Buck gets elected, I wonder how long it’ll take him to make the same move?)

• IL-Sen: The DSCC is keeping on pouring money into the Land of Lincoln, bolstering Alexi Giannoulias. They’re adding another $400K to the pile, for another week on the air.

• KY-Sen: The NRSC is taking the opposite tack, engaging in a little advertisus interruptus and pulling out for a week from Kentucky. (They claim they’re doing so from a position of strength, naturally.) Meanwhile, this is kind of small ball ($1,400 in contributions from three guys), but it’s still the kind of headline you probably don’t want to see if you’re Rand Paul, especially once you’ve made your feelings on the Civil Rights Act clear:

Conway camp calls on Paul to return money from white separatists

• NY-Sen-B: Marist (9/19-22, likely voters, 5/3-5 in parentheses):

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 52 (50)

Joe DioGuardi (R): 41 (30)

Undecided: 7 (20)

(MoE: ±4%)

Marist gives you a buffet of different numbers of choose from, as it’s 54-42 for Gillibrand when leaners are pushed, or it’s 55-36 when polling just registered voters (meaning there’s an enthusiasm gap worth 8 points here). They also find Chuck Schumer having no problems in the other Senate race, leading Jay Townsend 58-37 among LVs (and 63-32 among RVs).

• WI-Sen: Ron Johnson’s one act of political participation prior to this year — testifying before the state legislature in opposition to the bipartisan-supported Wisconsin Child Victims Act — is getting a second look in the press. His main interest in opposing the bill was that it could lead to corporations or other business entities being held liable for acts of employees, worried about the “economic havoc” it would create (and worried that those meddling “trial lawyers” would benefit). Think Progress has video of the testimony.

• WV-Sen: This seems like a new one to me… John Raese is actually paying people to write letters to the editor on his behalf. Not just offering them McCain Bucks that can’t be redeemed for anything in the real world, but running an actual contest giving money to people who get the most letters published. Also, I’ll give John Raese credit for being himself even when he’s being followed around by reporters. Here’s his reaction to finding out that the NRA endorsement went to Joe Manchin:

Raese speaks angrily into the phone, his words full of threat: “Tell them that I have an A plus rating with them, and that if they are fair they should include that. Tell them about the polling. Tell them I’m riding an elephant.” Raese pulls the cell phone away from his ear,  hands it back to Patrick the driver, and says “That has made it a lot harder.”

• CT-Gov: Little known fact: did you know that Jodi Rell still hasn’t endorsed Tom Foley yet, despite only weeks to go? Foley’s camp is saying it’s imminent, but it looks like Rell has summoned up even less enthusiasm in the general as she did for her Lt. Gov., Michael Fedele, in the GOP primary.

• FL-Gov: Here’s an interesting endorsement for Alex Sink: she got the backing of term-limited Republican state Sen. Alex Villalobos. Villalobos is also backing Charlie Crist (and even Dan Gelber in the AG race), so this exactly a sign of the Republican edifice collapsing, though.

• IA-Gov, SD-AL: Add one more to the long list of Dems who are getting a nice NRA endorsement as their box-of-Rice-a-Roni-and-can-of-Turtle-Wax-style parting gift on their way out the studio door. Chet Culver just got the backing of the gun lobby. (One state to the north, they also just backed Stephanie Herseth Sandlin today.)

• CA-44: PPP for Democrats.com (9/24-26, likely voters, no trendlines):

Bill Hedrick (D): 38

Ken Calvert (R-inc): 49

Undecided: 13

(n=760)

Despite being woefully underfunded, Bill Hedrick’s keeping the race competitive in his rematch against Ken Calvert (recall that he almost won, out of nowhere, in 2008). How he makes up that last 12 points in this climate, though, I’m not sure.

• FL-22: Harstad Research Group for Project New West (9/20-22, likely voters, no trendlines):

Ron Klein (D): 48

Allen West (R): 43

Undecided: 9

(n=504)

There’s lots of back-and-forth in the polling of the 22nd, with each side sporting their own internal with a lead in the last week. Dem pollster Harstad weighs in with another one going in Ron Klein’s column.

• KS-03: Moore money, Moore problems? Retiring Rep. Dennis Moore is still busy emptying out his campaign coffers, transferring $100K more to the Kansas Democratic party (on top of a previous $100K in June). That’s probably with the understanding that the money will be used to pay for their newest mailer in support of Stephene Moore, running to succeed her husband.

• NH-01, NH-02: American Research Group (9/22-26, likely voters, no trendlines):

Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc): 40

Frank Guinta (R): 50

Undecided: 8

Ann McLane Kuster (D): 36

Charlie Bass (R): 38

Undecided: 21

(MoE: ±5%)

Here are some unusual results from ARG! (although should we expect anything else?): they find Carol Shea-Porter getting keelhauled in the 1st, while the open seat battle in the 2nd is a swashbuckling battle (contrary to other polls we’ve seem of these races, where the 1st has been a tossup or a narrow CSP advantage while the 2nd has looked bad).

• PA-08: I’ve been patiently waiting here for actual toplines for more than a day, but it seems like they aren’t forthcoming… so I’ll just let you know there’s a Harstad Research Group poll (on behalf of SEIU and VoteVets, not the Patrick Murphy campaign) out in the 8th that gives Murphy a 3-point lead over Mike Fitzpatrick and an 8-point lead among voters who voted in 2006. It was taken Sept. 20-22.

• WI-07: Garin Hart Yang for Julie Lassa (9/26-27, likely voters, in parentheses):

Julie Lassa (D): 41

Sean Duffy (R): 42

Gary Kauther (I): 7

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±4.4%)

I don’t know how good a sign this is, releasing an internal where you’re still trailing in a Democratic-leaning district. Lassa needs to let the donors know she’s still in this, I suppose.

• WV-03: Global Strategy Group for DCCC (9/23-26, likely voters, no trendlines):

Nick Rahall (D-inc): 55

Spike Maynard (R): 37

Undecided: 8

(MoE: ±4.8%)

Well, here’s one district where all the polls (even the one from AFF) are consistent in showing a nearly-20 point edge for long-time Dem Nick Rahall.

• NY-St. Sen.: Four polls from Siena of key New York State Senate races have, on the balance, bad news for the Democrats: Darrell Aubertine, the first Democrat in several geological epochs to hold SD-48 in the North Country, is trailing GOP opponent Pattie Ritchie for re-election, 48-45. Brian Foley, in Long Island-based SD-4, is also in a tough race, leading Lee Zeldin 44-43. Meanwhile, two Republican incumbents are looking fairly safe: Frank Padavan, who barely survived 2008 in Dem-leaning Queens-based SD-11, leads ex-city councilor Tony Avella 56-32, while in SD-44, Hugh Farley leads Susan Savage 55-37. (I’d rather see them poll the open seat races; that’s where the Republicans are at more risk.)

• Mayors: There aren’t a lot of big-city mayoral races where the decisive vote is in November (most were wrapped up in the primaries), but one interesting one is Louisville, where the longtime Dem incumbent Jerry Abramson is leaving in order to run for LG next year. Dem Greg Fischer (who you may remember from the 2008 Senate primary) is beating Republican city councilor Hal Heiner 48-42, according to SurveyUSA.

• DLCC: You probably saw yesterday that the DLCC is out with a first round of 20 “essential races” for controlling key state legislative chambers. Well, over in diaries, now they’re soliciting suggestions for further additions to the list, so please add some suggestions from races that are near and dear to your own hearts.

• SSP TV:

• CA-Sen: The Chamber of Commerce, trying to salvage this dwindling race, tries to hang the “career politician” tag on Barbara Boxer

• CO-Sen: The DSCC goes after Ken Buck on Social Security again

• CO-Sen: The NRSC runs an anti-Michael Bennet ad, hitting him on his support for health care reform

• DE-Sen: The DSCC crams as much Christine O’Donnell insanity as it can into 30 seconds

• IL-Sen: Mark Kirk goes back to where he began, with another bio spot of small town boy made good

• PA-Sen: Joe Sestak’s newest ad keeps on trying to tie Pat Toomey to Wall Street

• WV-Sen: The DSCC goes after John Raese for supporting eliminating the minimum wage and his own ooopses at his own company

• CT-Gov: The DGA hits Tom Foley on outsourcing in his former career as textile magnate

• MI-Gov: The RGA hits Virg Bernero on spending as mayor (OMG! he spent $1,277 on pencils!)

• NM-Gov: Another Susana Martinez attack ad hits Diane Denish for some bungled solar power thingamajig

• TX-Gov: Here’s a mindblowing stat: the DGA has never paid for advertising in Texas… until now. They’re out with an attack on Rick Perry, calling him what nobody wants to be called this cycle (“career politican”)

• KY-03: Todd Lally’s out with two ads, one a bio spot, the other a pretty funny attack on John Yarmuth using the K-Tel greatest hits album motif

• MI-07: Tim Walberg has to call on his mom for help: not to do any polling on his behalf, just to appear in an ad about Social Security

• NC-02: This was probably inevitable… AJS weighs into the 2nd with an ad using Bob Etheridge going apeshit on a poor innocent little tracker

• NC-11: Repent now or Jeff Miller will forever cast you into the fiery pits of Nancy Pelosi’s hell!

• ND-AL: Earl Pomeroy touts how well he cooperated with George W. Bush! (on Medicare Part D, though, which probably plays well among North Dakota’s aging population)

• PA-08: Outsourcing must be polling well for the Dems these days, as Patrick Murphy hits Mike Fitzpatrick on that

• VA-05: Indie candidate Jeff Clark scrounged up enough money to advertise? And he’s attacking GOPer Robert Hurt? That’s good enough for me

• Rasmussen:

• CT-Gov: Dan Malloy (D) 50%, Tom Foley (R) 40%

• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D) 46%, John Raese (R) 48%

• Fox/Pulse (aka Rasmussen):

• CO-Gov: John Hickenlooper (D) 44%, Dan Maes (R) 15%, Tom Tancredo (C) 34%

• CO-Sen: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 43%, Ken Buck (R) 47%

• IL-Gov: Pat Quinn (D-inc) 36%, Bill Brady (R) 46%, Rich Whitney (G) 8%

• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 40%, Mark Kirk (R) 42%, LeAlan Jones (G) 7%

• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 43%, John Kasich (R) 45%

• OH-Sen: Lee Fisher (D) 37%, Rob Portman (R) 50%

• WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D-inc) 48%, Dino Rossi (R) 47%

• WI-Gov: Tom Barrett (D) 45%, Scott Walker (R) 49%

• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 44%, Ron Johnson (R) 52%

CD 1:

*Rob Andrews (D)-59

Dale Glading (R)-24

Undecided-15

CD 2:

Gary Stein (D)-25

*Frank Lobiondo (R)-54

Undecided-13

CD 3:

*John Adler (D)-38

Jon Runyan (R)-30

Pete Destefano (Tea Party)-8

Undecided-23

*incumbent

Via Richard Stockton/Zogby Polling.  MOE +/- 5 of 400 likely voters.

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