Swing State Project – Page 115 – Campaign and Election News

SSP Updates 41 Race Ratings

Swing State Project is rolling out another round of updates to our House, Senate and Gubernatorial race ratings charts. This may seem like an alarming large number to do all at once, especially since almost all the changes are favorable to Republicans, but that’s not in response to any particular event or series of events. Mostly, we’re just playing catchup after having been a little slow in performing a global update since late July, and obviously the general environment deteriorated over August for Dems (although we might have seen a slight uptick in their fortunes, at least in terms of generic ballot tests and mindless Beltway CW, in the last week).

AZ-Sen: Races to Watch to Safe R CT-Sen: Likely D to Lean D IN-Sen: Lean R to Likely R MO-Sen: Tossup to Lean R OH-Sen: Tossup to Lean R PA-Sen: Tossup to Lean R

AZ-Gov: Tossup to Lean R CO-Gov: Lean D to Likely D CT-Gov: Tossup to Lean D IL-Gov: Tossup to Lean R ME-Gov: Tossup to Lean R NH-Gov: Safe D to Likely D NM-Gov: Tossup to Lean R NV-Gov: Lean R to Likely R WI-Gov: Tossup to Lean R

AR-02: Lean R to Likely R AZ-01: Lean D to Tossup AZ-05: Lean D to Tossup CA-47: Likely D to Lean D CO-03: Likely D to Tossup CO-07: Likely D to Lean D CT-05: Likely D to Lean D FL-02: Lean D to Tossup IA-01: Safe D to Likely D IL-11: Lean D to Tossup IL-14: Lean D to Tossup IL-17: Likely D to Lean D KY-03: Likely D to Lean D LA-02: Likely D to Lean D ME-01: Safe D to Likely D ME-02: Safe D to Likely D MI-07: Lean D to Tossup MI-09: Likely D to Lean D NY-29: Lean R to Likely R OR-05: Likely D to Lean D PA-03: Lean D to Tossup PA-07: Tossup to Lean R PA-08: Lean D to Tossup SC-05: Lean D to Tossup WA-02: Likely D to Tossup WA-03: Tossup to Lean R

39 of these changes favor Republicans; 2 races have moved in the Democratic direction.

August Party Committee Fundraising Roundup

If I were a rich man…. Here are the August fundraising numbers for the six major party committees (July numbers are here):

Committee	August Receipts	August Spent	Cash-on-Hand	CoH Change	Debt
DCCC	$8,321,828	$5,084,485	$39,045,330	$3,237,343	$0
NRCC	$6,644,522	$3,159,371	$25,577,533	$3,485,152	$0
DSCC	$7,420,000	$6,970,000	$22,920,000	$420,000	$0
NRSC	$6,050,000	$2,600,000	$24,500,000	$3,300,000	$0
DNC	$16,172,739	$13,586,859	$13,441,564	$2,585,880	$8,368,002
RNC	$7,952,299	$8,555,102	$4,694,245	($602,802)	$1,194,231
Total Dem	$31,914,566	$25,641,344	$75,406,895	$6,243,224	$8,368,002
Total GOP	$20,646,821	$14,314,473	$54,771,777	$6,182,349	$1,194,231

SSP Daily Digest: 9/22 (Morning Edition)

DE-Sen: Christine O’Donnell has decided to go the J.D. Salinger route: She told Sean Hannity that she’s doing no more interviews, ever. Okay, well, at least as far as the national media are concerned. But it’s nothing to get upset over, sports fans: Thanks to the advent of the Internet, we will hear about all her gaffes and insanities even if she’s only talking to the Kent County Evening Bugle-Reporter-Sentinel. In that same interview with Hannity, she also managed to tell some nice lies about Chris Coons, claiming that he “made some very anti-American statements, apologizing for America and calling himself a bearded Marxist.” Of course, the “bearded Marxist” line was a joke, though undoubtedly O’Donnell is too dense to grasp that.

CO-Gov: You know, as we were getting to know Christine O’Donnell, I had a feeling that she was so low-rent, she’d make even Dan Maes look good. Well, that appears to be all but fucking impossible, even for O’Donnell. Maes raised just $14K in the first two weeks of September and currently has $24K in the bank. Not sure there’s a sack big enough fit that much sad.

MI-Gov: WLNS-TV could have saved themselves some money by just reading the Swing State Project, but they went ahead and commissioned a poll of the gubernatorial race anyway. Anyhow, the Marketing Resource Group shows exactly what you’d expect: Rick Snyder beating Virg Bernero 49-31.

AL-02: The NRA’s infiltration of the Democratic Party continues apace, this time with an endorsement for Bobby Bright.

AZ-07: This smells fishy to me. A Republican operative is saying he’s seen internal polls showing Some Dude Ruth McClung in a dead heat with Rep. Raul Grijalva in this 57% Obama district. But local Dem and GOP pols say they’ve seen nothing of the kind. McClung has only $15K on hand, but this ain’t good: Grijalva, after spending half a mil so far this cycle, has just $77K in the bank.

IA-02: Evidently Mariannette Miller-Meeks did not get the Club For Growth’s memo: She’s now saying she opposes privatizing Social Security, ostensibly because she thinks its finances are rickety. But isn’t the whole reason conservative douchewads want to private Social Security is because that’s how they think they can “save” it? I’m confused!

ID-01: Heh – fucker couldn’t buy a break even if Ron Popiel was selling `em. Even though the NRA gave Raul Labrador a better grade than Walt Minnick, they declined to endorse either candidate. Suckaaaaa.

WATN?: Remember this story? Last cycle, Chris Shays’ former campaign manager, Michael Sohn, stole a quarter million dollars from his boss’s election accounts. Now, Sohn has been sentenced to 37 months in prison. Shays must go to sleep every night wondering if that extra $250K would have meant the difference between winning and losing….

SSP TV (by James L.):

FL-Sen: Charlie Crist’s new ad hits Rubio for all the pork-laden bills that he sent to the Governor’s desk while serving as Speaker of the Florida House
KY-Sen: Conservative group American Crossroads spending $235K against Jack Conway (D) – no copy of ad yet
NH-Sen: Paul Hodes’ new ad is a folksy spot on fiscal conservatism, including chiding Kelly Ayotte for supporting tax cuts for the rich
CO-07: Ryan Frazier wields some kind of laser pen while reciting a bunch of B.S. GOP boilerplate
FL-22: Allen West says that Ron Klein is no moderate
FL-24: Suzanne Kosmas would like you to know that she’s never gonna give you up, never gonna let you down
MO-04: Ike Skelton issues a fierce but vague attack on GOPer Vicky Hartzler’s support for veterans, from the mouths of veterans
NY-20: Chris Gibson says that we have to let market forces drive healthcare costs down. Yeah, like that worked the first time, moron.
PA-03: Mike Kelly and the NRCC team up to hit Kathy Dahlkemper on SPENDING OUR CHILDREN’S FUTURE INTO OBLIVION!!!!11!
PA-04: Keith Rothfus’ new ad takes the ice cream sandwich approach: two layers of delicious cookie crunch surrounding a mid-section of negative ice cream. I realize that makes no sense, but… God, I’m hungry.
PA-10: Tom Marino’s first ad plays defense against Chris Carney’s hard-hitting ads against his sleazy record

Independent Expenditures (all from the DCCC today):

AL-02: $82K media buy
HI-01: $53K media buy
IA-03: $71K media buy/production
IL-14: $19K on direct mail
MI-01: $24K media buy
MI-07: $67K media buy
MS-01: $49K media buy/production
NC-08: $200K media buy/production
NY-24: $27K media buy/production
OH-13: $232K media buy/production
OH-16: $26K media buy/production
WI-07: $61K media buy
VA-02: $86K media buy/production

ID-01, ID-Gov: Minnick Leads by 10, Otter by 16

Mason-Dixon for various Idaho newspapers (9/13-15, likely voters, no trend lines):

Walt Minnick (D-inc): 46

Raul Labrador (R): 36

Mike Washburn (L): 1

Dave Olson (I): 1

Undecided: 16

(MoE: ±5%)

Mason-Dixon dips its toes into the warm Idaho waters for the first time this cycle, finding frosh Democrat Walt Minnick in good, though not bulletproof, shape in this deep red district. To recap all of the polls we’ve seen of this race, Greg Smith & Associates released a poll back in June showing Labrador ahead by 36-24… which was the first and last time that Labrador led in any publicly-released polling, as his campaign followed up a month later with an internal poll showing Minnick up by 37-27. And local pollster Greg Strimple, who usually works for Republicans, pegged Minnick’s lead at an eye-popping 52-29 in August.

Minnick sports a very impressive 54-16 favorability rating, while Labrador is not hated at 31-10. (41%, though, recognize Labrador’s name but feel ambivalent about him.) Minnick wins 26% of Republicans and leads Labrador among independents by 48-27. In recent days, Minnick’s been going hard negative on Labrador, hitting him for his record as an immigration attorney. (I disagree with my ex-boss Greg Sargent’s take that Minnick is airing the ad out of desperation – I think he’s just trying to rough Labrador up as much as possible before the race has a chance to tighten, which could precipitate a flood of outside money into the district.)

Meanwhile, we have another glance at the gubernatorial numbers:

Keith Allred (D): 29

Butch Otter (R-inc): 45

Ted Dunlap (L): 3

Pro Life (I): 2

Jana Kemp (I): 1

Undecided: 20

(MoE: ±3.9%)

You bet I’m Pro Life! I didn’t realize that the most bizarrely-named dude in politics was back at it (yes, the man legally changed his name to Pro Life in order to run against Jim Risch for Senate in 2008 – backstory here), but it warms my heart to know that there’s no quit in him.

These numbers are actually pretty unspectacular all-around for Butch Otter, whose edge on Democrat Keith Allred has been cut in half over the course of the year. I’m not saying that Allred has a chance (though he’s certainly a very solid candidate), but Otter is on track to under-perform.

Meanwhile, in the Senate race, incumbent Republican Mike Crapo leads Dem Tom Sullivan by 61-17, while GOP Rep. Mike Simpson (who has at least some degree of goodwill from SSP for being so candid with his opinions on Bill Sali in past years) leads Dem Mike Crawford by 51-23.

Bellwether Counties: Analysis

In nearly every state, there are certain bellwether counties that are good indicators of which candidate will win the state, barring extreme regional polarization. In this post, I will examine the bellwether counties for every single state, barring the few that don’t seem to have one.

Alabama: Tuscaloosa County

Home to the University of Alabama, this is not a generic rural Alabama district. However, it is one of only a few counties with a white majority and a large black minority. Home to Tuscaloosa, the fifth largest city in the state, it is relatively urban/suburban. A Dixiecrat like Bobby Bright could probably win the state without this county by doing well in rural areas, but any other Democrat needs to win here. The college voters provide a base that leans Republican but is still gettable for a conservaDem. Besides the city of Tuscaloosa, this county has one suburb, Northport, and then outlying rural areas. Seeing how conservative this area generally is shows just how hard it is for a Democrat to win statewide in Alabama. It last voted for a Democrat for President in 1976, the last time the state was won by one. The last Senate candidate to win it was Dick Shelby in 1992, before he switched parties. It did vote for Siegelman in 2002 when he barely lost.

Alaska doesn’t have counties, so I’m not listing it here.

Arizona: Najavo County

While demographically not at all representative of Arizona, it is politically. Despite being plurality Native American, the extremely conservative White base makes this a county that leans Republican, much like the state it is a part of. Mostly rural and including huge Navajo, Apache, and Hopi reservations, the county last voted for a Democrat statewide in Janet Napolitano’s 2006 gubernatorial romp. Dennis DeConcini’s 1988 election was the last time it did for Senate, however, and Bill Clinton won it both times.

Other states will continue to be added over the flip:

Arkansas: Howard County

Tiny Howard County serves as the bellwether of one of the fastest-shifting states in the nation. Although its population is under 15,000, it is demographically close to the state as a whole (a bit over 20% Black). It is a dry county. Presidentially, it last voted for a Democrat in 1996 (not surprisingly). It’s voted for the winning candidate (read Democrat) in every Senate election in the past 20 years, as well as the winning candidate in every governor election (Beebe, Huckabee, Tucker, Clinton) in that time-span. Like most of Arkansas, it is a very poor county.

California: Imperial and San Benito Counties

Both these counties are similar, they flipped blue in 1992 like California and haven’t turned back; they both are majority Hispanic, and they are both quite rural. San Benito County, home of the acclaimed Hollister, is in the Salinas Valley and the rural mountains east of it. Imperial County is on the Mexican and Arizona borders and is home to El Centro, Calexico, Brawley, and Imperial, all of which are probably best classified as large towns. 2/3 speak Spanish as their first language, but due to non-citizenship of many, the county is only moderately Democratic. They both voted for Arnold twice, but voted for Gray Davis twice before voting to recall him just one year later. However, San Benito County voted for Feinstein over Wilson in 1990. They both voted against Feinstein in her first election to the Senate, 1994, and San Benito also voted against Boxer in 1992.

Colorado: Larimer County

This should come as no surprise to anybody that followed the 2008 election, with this being key to Obama and Betsy Markey’s victories. Larimer County is the 7th-largest in the state. Racially, it is a bit less Latino than the state, but it has many moderate surburbanites and is well-educated, much like Colorado. The main population centers are Fort Collins, the fifth largest city in the state, and its smaller southern neighbor, Loveland. Together, they comprise the Ft. Collins Metro Area, which is kind of part of the Denver Area as well. It went blue in both 2008 and 1992, the years that Democrats won the state in recent times. For Senate, it has mirrored the state in every election since 1990 (all my data goes back to that year, so when I say in every election, I mean since then). For Governor, it has done the same, making it a perfect bellwether county.

Connecticut: New London County

Yes, counties don’t matter in New England, but they will here. In the Southeast of the state, this county flipped along with the state in 1992. The main towns are New London, Groton, and Norwich, and it is home to the Coast Guard Academy. With the outlier of 1994, when it voted 3rd party for governor, it has gone along with the state in every statewide election. It is the base of Joe Courtney’s congressional district.

Delaware is too small for this to be relevant

Florida: Hillsborough County

Located along the famed I-4 corridor, this is one of the most famed swing counties. The last time it didn’t support the statewide presidential winner (in a swing state, no less) was 1960, when it voted for Kennedy. In the other close elections (2004,2000,1992, 1976, 1968, 1964) it always went with the state. In 1994, it voted Bush over Chiles for Governor, and it voted Castor over Martinez in 2004, but on the whole, it’s very accurate at predicting who will win the state. Look for it in November to see if Alex Sink will win. The county itself is very large, at 1.2 million people and still growing. It’s a little under 60% White, relatively close to the state’s population. Tampa, at 350,000 people, is nearing the top 50 nationwide. The city is barely majority-minority. There are also many suburbs:

Plant City, a large strawberry producer. and located in the rural eastern part of the county

Temple Terrace, built pre-Depression as a golf community

Bloomingdale, an affluent community

University, home of USF, a very poor community, with 30%+ in poverty

Riverview, a middle-class suburb

Egypt Lake-Leto, a poor Hispanic suburb

Keystone, a very affluent suburb

Lake Magdalene, middle class as well

Palm River, a middle-class diverse area

Brandon, the largest suburb at nearly 100,000 people.

Lutz, upper-middle class

Citrus Park, another diverse middle-class area

Westchase, another wealthy area

Town n Country, home to 80,000 and a mix of White and Hispanic

Greater Northdale, upper middle class

Greater Carrolwood, see above

SSP Daily Digest: 9/21 (Afternoon Edition)

• AK-Sen: Joe Miller finally fessed up to what we told you about last week (concerning farmland he owned in Alaska): he’s a hypocrite on the farm subsidy issue, having gladly accepted them while railing against them. This time, it’s about a different parcel of farmland in Kansas that he owned before moving to Alaska, receiving $7K in GOVERNMENT HANDOUTS FOR LAZY UNPRODUCTIVE PEOPLE WHO’VE MADE BAD LIFESTYLE CHOICES!!!1! between the years 1990 and 1997. And check out the excuse he offers: “This was back in the ’90s, the situation the country was in was far different than now.” (Uh huh… when some guy named Bill Clinton was running a surplus.)

• DE-Sen: Whoops. Prior to getting their establishment asses handed them to them on the end of a mob-wielded pitchfork, the Delaware state GOP filed a FEC complaint against Christine O’Donnell for illegal campaign coordination with and excessive contributions from the Tea Party Express. Now that they’re saddled with her as the nominee, the FEC is telling them no-backsies, and that they can’t withdraw the complaint… the complaint against their own nominee.

• NC-Sen: And now it’s Richard Burr’s turn in the hypocrisy dunk tank. An announcement of 240 new jobs and a $130 million expansion at Cree Inc. in Durham is drawing four major Democrats and Richard Burr to celebrate. Burr, unlike the Democrats, though, did not support the stimulus package that, y’know, was behind that expansion.

• NV-Sen: John Ensign may not even survive till the general election in 2012, if Jon Ralston’s tweet is to be believed. John Chachas, the little-known self-funder who barely made a ripple in the overcrowded 2010 GOP Senate field but who seems likely to do better in a one-on-one, is saying he may run against Ensign in two years.

• GA-Gov, GA-Sen: Mason-Dixon for Georgia Newspaper Partnership:

Roy Barnes (D): 41

Nathan Deal (R): 45

Michael Thurmond (D): 33

Johnny Isakson (R-inc): 52

(MoE: ±4%)

While this isn’t as nice as the InsiderAdvantage poll showing the race tied in the wake of disclosures about Nathan Deal’s financial disarray, Mason-Dixon does show a close race. This appears to be their first poll of the Barnes/Deal matchup, so there’s no sense of whether things have tightened.

• RI-Gov: Faced with the choice between a labor-friendly indie candidate and a Democrat whom they endorsed for state Treasurer four years ago, the AFL-CIO finally decided to punt, and endorse neither Lincoln Chafee nor Frank Caprio, remaining neutral. Recall that Chafee got SEIU and nurses’ union backing yesterday.

• AZ-05: There’s a new internal out in the rematch in Arizona’s 5th that founds its way across someone’s desk at the Hill. It’s from Democratic pollster Harstad Strategic Research and is apparently on behalf of the Harry Mitchell campaign, giving Mitchell a narrow lead over David Schweikert, 45-44 with 6 to the Libertarian candidate. That’s kind of pushing the limits on when it’s a good idea to release an internal, but with Schweikert having claimed an 8-point lead in his own internal and the DCCC’s ambiguous pull-out announcement about this district triggering some alarms, Mitchell seemed to need to show he’s still right in the thick of things.

UPDATE: The Mitchell campaign writes in to clarify that this isn’t their internal poll (which the Hill had originally reported, then apparently deleted), but rather is on behalf of Project New West. Mitchell’s up 51-29 among independents, which helps him prevail even in a sample that’s slightly GOP-skewed (46% GOP, 30% Dem) You can see the polling memo here.

• LA-02: Anzalone-Liszt for Cedric Richmond (9/12-15, likely voters, no trendlines):

Cedric Richmond (D): 45

Joe Cao (R): 35

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Here’s the antidote to that bizarre Joe Cao internal from a few months back, that gave him a 25-point lead over Cedric Richmond. Even this Richmond internal, which has him up by 10, indicates that this isn’t going to be a total cakewalk for the Dems, though; with only 35%, Cao is still way overperforming the GOP baseline in this district that went for Barack Obama with 75% of the vote in 2008.

• MN-01: Tim Walz picked up an endorsement from an unexpected corner yesterday. He got the backing of former Republican Senator David Durenberger, who support Walz’s stance on “uniting people” but also his support for health care reform. (Durenberger is also supporting IP candidate Tom Horner in the governor’s race.)

• PA-15: Muhlenberg College for the Allentown Morning Call (9-11/16, likely voters, 4/19-27 in parentheses):

John Callahan (D): 38 (33)

Charlie Dent (R-inc): 49 (45)

Jake Towne (I): 3 (?)

Undecided: 10 (22)

(MoE: ±5%)

John Callahan’s one of the best Dem challengers to a GOP incumbent this cycle, but he’s got a lot of work ahead of him to make up that last 12 points against Charlie Dent.

• NRSC: Here’s an interesting Roll Call dispatch from the front lines in the war between the NRSC and the Army of One known as Jim DeMint. DeMint is apparently dissatisfied with current NRSC allocations, and is moving money from his own personal stash to bolster Sharron Angle in Nevada ($156K) and Ken Buck in Colorado ($250K). The NRSC has reserved $3.2 million for Buck in TV time, more than any other candidate, so his concerns about Colorado may be misplaced.

• SSP TV:

• IL-Sen: The DSCC hits Mark Kirk for voting against unemployment extensions and minimum wage raises

• MO-Sen: Roy Blunt disappears down the meta rabbithole, with an attack ad about Robin Carnahan’s attack ads

• NV-Sen: Can we just have Harry Reid handle the advertising for all our candidates? He turns up the heat even higher on Sharron Angle, saying she wants to privatize the VA and “end our promise to our veterans”

• IA-Gov: Two separate ads for Chet Culver, one featuring endorsements from his immediate family members, the other making the case that “hey, Iowa’s not that bad off compared to all those other states”

• NM-Gov: Susana Martinez’s ad is a positive bio spot recounting her early prosecuting days

• SC-Gov: Vince Sheheen’s TV ad features a litany of reasons to be suspicious of Nikki Haley, recited by various average folks

• OH-16: The DCCC’s newest spot is a tax-time two-fer, hitting Jim Renacci on supporting the 23% “fair tax” and on his own pile of back taxes owed

• OR-05: Kurt Schrader’s newest is a testimonial from a thankful veteran

• TN-08: Roy Herron’s newest ad hits Stephen Fincher mostly on his various campaign finance discrepancies of misfilings and mysterious loans

• WI-07: Julie Lassa’s newest ad features criticism from a Sean Duffy underling from the DA’s office in Ashland County, focusing on his neglect of that stepping-stone job

• Rasmussen:

• AK-Sen: Scott McAdams (D) 25%, Joe Miller (R) 42%, Lisa Murkowski (W-I-inc) 27%

• CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 47%, Carly Fiorina (R) 43%

• NY-Sen-B: Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 49%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 39%

• RI-Gov: Frank Caprio (D) 30%, John Robitaille (R) 23%, Lincoln Chafee (I) 33%

• Rasmussen (appearing as Fox/Pulse):

• CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 45%, Meg Whitman (R) 45%

• CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 47%, Carly Fiorina (R) 46%

• DE-Sen: Chris Coons (D) 54%, Christine O’Donnell (R) 39%

• NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 45%, Sharron Angle (R) 46%

• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 41%, John Kasich (R) 47%

• OH-Sen: Lee Fisher (D) 36%, Rob Portman (R) 49%

• PA-Gov: Dan Onorato (D) 39%, Tom Corbett (R) 49%

• PA-Sen: Joe Sestak (D) 40%, Pat Toomey (R) 48%

WA-09: Add One More to the Board; SSP Moves to Likely D

SurveyUSA for KING-TV (9/14-16, likely voters, no trendlines):

Adam Smith (D-inc): 49

Dick Muri (R): 46

Undecided: 5

(MoE: ±4.1%)

Now here’s a race that wasn’t on anybody’s mind (except for Real Clear Politics, who consider every race with a sentient Republican to be at least “Likely Dem”): Washington’s 9th district, a D+5 narrow swath of middle-class suburbs reaching from SeaTac Airport in the north to Fort Lewis in the south. Adam Smith has held this uneventfully since 1996, when he picked it up from Randy Tate, who got washed in with the tide in ’94 and washed out with the next normal election.

Nevertheless, I’m not altogether surprised here. The GOP didn’t just run their usual Some Dude here; they dug up a Pierce County Councilor (that’s the state’s second-largest county, where Tacoma is) in the form of Dick Muri. The only reason you haven’t heard anything about this race nationally is because a) it’s D+5, at the outer edge of what’s feasible for a pickup, and b) Muri has raised near-bupkus (currently sitting on $96K in cash, although he may now be getting more of a second look). And then in the Top 2 primary, the cumulative Dem/Green vs. GOP vote, a good predictor of where the general election will wind up, was about 55-45 (with the GOP vote being deeply split between establishmentarian Muri and a teabagger). So, take that 10-point spread that the primary would predict, throw in the 6-or-7 point rightward skew that we’ve been seeing from SurveyUSA versus, well, everybody else in their polling of west coast states (WA-Sen, CA-Sen… need I go on?), and… voila! You have a 3-point Smith lead.

As much as it’s reasonable to expect that Smith will hold on in the high-single-digits (especially since he’s right below the 50% mark), this race should not be ignored, and we’re moving it to “Likely Democratic” (from Safe Democratic).

MI-Gov: Yet Another Bernero Blowout; SSP Moves to Likely R

Public Policy Polling (9/18-19, likely voters, 5/25-27 in parentheses):

Virg Bernero (D): 31 (28)

Rick Snyder (R): 52 (44)

Undecided: 16 (28)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

PPP’s poll of the Michigan gubernatorial race is a pretty clear indicator this one has moved out of play for the Democrats, Virg Bernero’s best efforts notwithstanding. A look at all polling shows that over the month of August, after the primary, this gradually moved from a lead for Republican Rick Snyder in the mid-teens, up to the low 20s.

Not only is there the problem of Bernero being weighed down by Jennifer Granholm’s unpopularity (Bernero’s at 28/43), but as PPP’s Tom Jensen points out, this is one GOP primary where they actually managed to shepherd through their most electable candidate (a Bernero/Mike Cox race would have been interesting, but we won’t get to find out). Snyder has 43/28 faves, including an amazing 53/17 among independents. With this race probably having already landed on the wrong end of DGA triage decisions, we’re moving this race to Likely Republican (from Lean Republican).

MA-Gov: Patrick Has 7-Point Lead Over Baker

Suffolk (9/14-16, registered voters, 5/20-23 in parentheses):

Deval Patrick (D-inc): 41 (42)

Charlie Baker (R): 34 (29)

Tim Cahill (I): 14 (14)

Jill Stein (G): 4 (8)

Undecided: 6 (7)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Suffolk is one pollster that I trust to get Massachusetts right (other states, not so much, but recall that they nailed the MA-Sen special election’s 5-pt margin and even some individual bellwether towns). As in previous polls, they find Deval Patrick in fairly durable shape against Charlie Baker, but that’s mostly because of an assist from Tim Cahill, an ex-Dem who’s a wedge right through the anti-Patrick vote. The 7-point margin is a little bigger than the average of all polling (although that average is pretty heavily Rasmussen-based).

Two words of caution, though: one is that among voters who actually know both candidates (16% of voters still haven’t heard of Baker), Baker leads 39-38. The other is that this is a registered voter model, which may be worth a few points to Patrick. However, here’s a hypothesis I have: there’s probably less enthusiasm gap here than in a lot of other states. Recent polling has shown much less of an enthusiasm gap in solidly blue states (California, Washington) and red states (Kentucky, Texas, Louisiana) than in the swingiest of states (Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania). Guess which category Massachusetts falls in?

CA-Gov: $118 Million Gets You This?

Public Policy Polling (9/14-16, likely voters, 7/23-25 in parentheses):

Jerry Brown (D): 47 (46)

Meg Whitman (R): 42 (40)

Undecided: 12 (14)

(MoE: ±3.8%)

$118 million can certainly get you heard (well past the saturation point, apparently), but it can’t erase the fundamental truth that California is a very blue state. As seen in PPP’s Senate poll released yesterday, there isn’t as much enthusiasm gap at work in California as in other states, leaving us with a likely voter sample that went for Obama by a 58-36 margin in 2008. While Whitman’s massive self-funded budget and her vaguely moderate appeal keep her competitive, the final story may simply be that there just aren’t enough Republicans (and persuable indies) to push her over the top.

People are feeling pretty ‘meh’ about Jerry Brown, with 41/43 favorables, but Whitman winds up in much worse shape at 30/50. While PPP doesn’t specifically ask whether Whitman’s ads have made people more or less likely to vote for her, they do find that people, by a 52-33 margin, think there should be a legal limit on how much a person can donate to his or her own campaign (gee, you think they’re thinking of Meg Whitman and her nonstop ads when they answer this question?). Before anybody starts to do a premature victory dance, though, bear in mind that more pollsters than not, in the last month, have given Whitman a lead (Although you know who we haven’t heard from lately? The Field Poll.). Given that this poll clocks in with a pretty optimistic 46% composition of self-described Dems, we’re looking at a neck-and-neck race here between wise tortoise and fabulously wealthy hare.