WA-Sen: Murray Leads By 9 (Again)

Opinion Research Corp. for CNN/Time (pdf) (9/2-7, likely voters, no trendlines):

Patty Murray (D-inc): 53

Dino Rossi (R): 44

Undecided: 1

(MoE: ±3.5%)

I’ll admit that, as big a backer of the Elway Poll as I am, even I thought their Monday poll of Washington’s Senate race, giving Patty Murray a 9-point lead was maybe a few points too optimistic. Oh, me of little faith, because today CNN/Time is out with a poll that pretty well confirms it, giving Murray another 9-point spread and finding her all the way up at 53. That’s with a staggering 1% undecided with a month and a half to go — talk about two well-defined candidates! (The missing 2% responded either “Other” or “Neither.”)

Note that this batch of CNN polls switches to a likely voter model (instead of the strange decision with last week’s wave to do only registered voters)… and the LV model actually benefits Murray, which seems weird, but also indicative of Washington’s solidly blue status: Murray leads Rossi 50-44 among RVs. Rossi gets 95% of Republicans, while Murray gets 93% of Democrats — and there are simply more (self-identified, since there’s no party registration) Democrats in Washington. Murray polls 66% in King County, and leads by 5 in suburban Puget Sound, while Rossi leads by 20 in the rest of the state.

SSP Daily Digest: 9/15

• AK-Sen: Two positive developments in the Alaska Senate race, as Scott McAdams seeks to introduce himself in this suddenly-competitive race. He was the recipient of a Mark Begich-headlined fundraiser yesterday in Washington DC, and he’s also out with a radio ad stressing his Alaskan roots and that he’ll keep fighting for “schools, hospitals, roads, and other nuts and bolts” – both key ways to differentiate himself from Joe Miller. As for Lisa Murkowski’s plans, she’s saying that she’ll make her intentions known by Friday whether she wants to make a write-in bid (but her plans to return to DC might be a “no” tea leaf).

• DE-Sen: After running far, far away from Christine O’Donnell last night, the NRSC has done an about-face today, giving her the maximum $42K (with Mitch McConnell chipping in his own $5K). I’d be surprised if they give any more than that; this seems like an attempt to placate the base before they go ballistic. Mitt Romney is also backing O’Donnell and giving his own $5K, apparently more worried about getting past the base in the 2012 GOP primary than support for O’Donnell might look for him in the 2012 general. Meanwhile, for those hoping for outright support for Chris Coons from Mike Castle, the Castle camp has said there won’t be an endorsement. (Assistance can take a variety of other forms, though, that aren’t as likely to be apparent.) Finally, if you’re wondering about how Christine O’Donnell sees herself within the Middle Earth context, now you can find out.

• NH-Sen: Although New Hampshire recount law would allow Ovide Lamontagne to seek a recount (since he finished within 1.5% of the total votes cast), he just opted against such an action, conceding the race to Kelly Ayotte. He had until the end of the day to request it.

• AK-Gov: It’s the last day to get his name on the ballot in Alaska in any capacity (and not really at issue, since the AIP and Libertarians weren’t open to subbing him as their candidate). That leaves 2nd place GOP gubernatorial finisher Bill Walker with a write-in bid as his only option, too, and he sounds like such a bid is “unlikely.”

• CA-Gov: I don’t know if all is truly well now between Bill Clinton and Jerry Brown, or Clinton is just feeling that he’s adequately established himself as the alpha dog in the wake of Brown’s capitulation following their ill-advised sparring, but Clinton gave his endorsement to Brown. It remains to be seen what exactly Clinton does on Brown’s behalf, though.

• CO-Gov: Tom Tancredo is able to stay on the ballot, said a U.S. District Court judge yesterday. He’d been the subject of a challenge from local GOPers, but the judge ruled that it wasn’t relevant that Tancredo had been a member of the Republican Party up until launching his Constitution Party bid.

• FL-Gov: The DGA just plowed $1 million into the Florida governor’s race, showing that they indeed think this (thanks to Rick Scott’s presence) is one of their best pickup opportunities but also that the route to doing so will be through a whole lot of money.

• GA-Gov: Nathan Deal is fighting back against reports that he’s in such financial disarray right now that he might need to sell his house to avoid default on a large business loan. The $2.3 million loan is due on Feb. 1, which exceeds the Deal family’s net worth. (This was an investment in a business started by his daughter which failed completely; it’s entirely separate from the family auto salvage business that’s at the heart of the Ethics complaint that chased him out of the House.)

• MD-Gov: Looks like we won’t have any lingering bad feelings here, unlike a lot of other establishment/Tea Party GOP primaries: Brian Murphy, who lost badly to Bob Ehrlich, has offered his endorsement to Ehrlich “if he’s willing to accept it.”

• DSCC: I guess Charles Schumer looked at yesterday’s election results and decided he didn’t have much to worry about in November from Jay Townsend. He just transferred $1 million to the DSCC from his own cash yesterday, on top of a previous $1 million in August. That leaves him with “only” about $22 million CoH… about the same amount of cash on hand that the DSCC has!

• DCCC, NRCC: The DCCC and NRCC are out with slew of independent expenditures advertisements. (Expect to see that phrase in every digest for the next month and a half.) The DCCC rolled out three new IEs in HI-01, MI-01, and AL-02. The NRCC’s buy is in 10 districts: most significantly in IN-02 (for $135K), but also AZ-01, CA-11, FL-02, MS-01, TX-17, VA-05, WI-07 (for $79K), and TN-08 (for $105K). If you want more details on the NRCC’s bid, you can check out the actual FEC filing.

• Self-funders: The Wall Street Journal has a helpful rundown on how self-funders are faring this year. As with, well, pretty much every other year, they’re faring quite poorly. Of the 10 biggest self-funders in this cycle’s Senate races, only three actually are still running (Linda McMahon, Carly Fiorina, and Ron Johnson); the other seven (Jeff Greene, Steve Pagliuca, Bill Binnie, David Malpass, Sue Lowden, Jim Bender, and Terrence Wall) all fell by the wayside, often in spectacular fashion. Same story in the House, where only three of the top 10 self-funders (Tom Ganley, Randy Altschuler, and Matt Doheny) are still functional.

• Redistricting: Any SSP readers out in Arizona? Here’s your chance to get out from behind Dave’s App and actually get your hands on the real thing! The state’s nonpartisan redistricting commission is seeking applications from the public for appointment to the 5-member commission.

• SSP TV:

• 60+ Assoc.: The health care astroturfers are running anti-Dem ads in WI-03, WI-08, NY-01, NY-20, and PA-10

• AFF: AFF launches a total $2.3 million buy in seven Dem districts: AL-02, GA-08, MI-01, MI-07, NJ-03, SC-05, and WV-01

• American Crossroads: Rove, Inc., is spending $330K on a MO-Sen ad and $550K on a CO-Sen ad

• FL-Sen: The US Chamber of Commerce hits Charlie Crist, pointing to his many flip-flops

• NV-Sen: The Sharron Angle camp has another anti-Harry Reid ad, calling him “the best friend an illegal immigrant ever had”

• NY-Sen-B: Kirsten Gillibrand’s out with her first ad, more or less explicitly introducing herself despite her two years or service

• NC-02: Bob Etheridge isn’t leaving anything to chance this year, rolling out an ad that’s mostly a pleasant bio spot

• OH-18: I mentioned Zack Space’s anti-NAFTA ad yesterday, but here’s an actual link to the ad

• PA-06: Jim Gerlach’s first ad has him stepping away from the Republican label, saying he’s “an independent voice for taxpayers”

• PA-10: Chris Carney’s ad goes there, hitting Tom Marino on his ties to sketchy casino entrepreneur Louis DeNaples

• SC-05: Mick Mulvaney’s new ad hits John Spratt for having gone native in Washington

• WI-07: Is the DCCC taking a page from the Fred Davis “Celebrity” ad that seemed to bizarrely work against Obama? Their new ad against Sean Duffy is rife with clips from his days on The Real World

• Rasmussen:

• FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek (D) 23%, Marco Rubio (R) 41%, Charlie Crist (I) 30%

• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 43%, John Kasich (R) 50%

• PA-Sen: Joe Sestak (D) 41%, Pat Toomey (R) 49%

• VT-Gov: Peter Shumlin (D) 49%, Brian Dubie (R) 46%

• VT-Sen: Patrick Leahy (D) 62%, Len Britton (R) 32%

NH-Sen: Ayotte Leads Hodes by 4

PPP (pdf) (9/11-12, likely voters, 7/23-25 in parentheses):

Paul Hodes (D): 43 (42)

Kelly Ayotte (R): 47 (45)

Undecided: 9 (13)

(MoE: ±2.2%)

PPP’s shift from a registered to a likely voter model doesn’t change the spread significantly in New Hampshire, where Ayotte leads 2nd CD Rep. Paul Hodes by four points. Their LV model has a sample that split its vote by 47-47 between Obama and McCain (down from a 9-point Obama win in 2008, and a three-point Obama edge in PPP’s last poll). Both Ayotte and Hodes begin the general election campaign equally damaged: Ayotte’s favorables took at turn for the worse, at 35-47, but so have Hodesey’s, which are at 35-46. Hodes has been battered by a seven-figure Chamber of Commerce ad buy, while Ayotte just barely survived a competitive primary despite her big financial advantage on movement conservative Ovide Lamontagne.

Of note is that compared to her Republican primary opponents, Ayotte isn’t particularly stronger – Lamontagne and Bender both had similar leads on Hodes according to this poll, while Binnie trailed Hodes by a point. (Still, it’s clear that the underfunded, more obviously conservative Lamontagne would have been the better choice for Dems, no matter the top lines of this poll.)

CA-20: Costa in a Dogfight?

SurveyUSA for KFSN-TV (9/10-12, likely voters, no trend lines):

Jim Costa (D-inc): 48

Andy Vidak (R): 46

Undecided: 6

(MoE: ±4.2%)

Jim Costa’s coming off a whopping 74-26 win over unheralded GOP challenger Jim Lopez in 2008, but SurveyUSA thinks that cherry farmer Andy Vidak is within striking distance of an upset here this fall. The 20th District is at least somewhat competitive, having gone for John Kerry by only three points over Bush in 2004 (but also supporting Obama by 60-39 in ’08 and Al Gore by 55-44 a decade ago). One big red flag is SUSA’s estimation of the Hispanic turnout: they’re pegging it at just 30%. (Note that this CD was 63% Hispanic as of 2000.) In what appears to be an effort to preemptively address criticism with their sample’s demographics, SUSA broke with their normal practice and banged out the following:

* If Hispanics make up 30% of voters on Election Day, Costa and Vidak finish effectively even, Costa 48%, Vidak 46%, within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error. At this hour, Republicans are, subject to change as the campaign unfolds, within reach of a take-way. If Hispanic turnout is 30% or less on election day, other turnout issues, such as the number of males vs females, could potentially come into play and help decide the contest.

* If Hispanics make up 35% of voters on Election Day, Costa is better positioned to hold the seat for the Democrats: he would lead today by approximately 7 points, 50% to 43% in a hypothetical analysis conducted by SurveyUSA.

* If Hispanics make up 40% of voters on Election Day, Costa today would lead by approximately 11 points, 52% to 41%, according to a hypothetical analysis conducted by SurveyUSA.

Meanwhile, in the open seat race to replace George “Who?” Radanovich, GOP state Sen. Jeff Denham leads physician/attorney Loraine Goodwin by 63-30.

NH-Sen: Ayotte Defeats Lamontagne

Per the Union Leader:

Kelly Ayotte wins U.S. Senate primary, defeating Ovide Lamontagne by more than 1,600 votes.

Note: The final projection by the boys down at SSP Labs last night was Ayotte by 1838.

A total missed opportunity for the Tea Party Express (as was the surprisingly soft showing of Charlie Bass in NH-02 for like-minded movement conservatives). Oh well – we’ll always have Christine!

UPDATE: The final tally is Ayotte 53,055, Lamontagne 51,377 (a spread of 1,678).

DE-Sen: Defeat From the Jaws of Victory; SSP Moves to Lean D

Public Policy Polling (9/11-12, likely voters, 8/7-8 in parentheses):

Chris Coons (D): 50 (44)

Christine O’Donnell (R): 34 (37)

Undecided: 16 (19)

Chris Coons (D): 35 (35)

Mike Castle (R): 45 (48)

Undecided: 20 (17)

(MoE: ±3.2%)

The loud rumbling sound you’re hearing is the implosion of Republican chances in the Delaware Senate race, previously one of their gimmees that were the foundation for big overall Senate gains. As you can see, Democratic New Castle Co. Executive Chris Coons was well on track to lose to Mike Castle (although by a narrower margin than others polls have seen)… but the state’s remaining Republican electorate saw fit to nominate Christine O’Donnell last night, giving Coons a pretty clear shot at the win.

How bad a fit for the Delaware general electorate is O’Donnell? Let’s look at some of the underlying details: Castle’s favorables are 44/40, while O’Donnell’s are 29/50. 45% thought Mike Castle was “just right,” while 31% said “too liberal” and 15% “too conservative.” On other hand, Christine O’Donnell is 40% “too conservative,” with only 35% “just right” and 9% “too liberal.” By a 59-26 margin Castle was seen “fit to hold public office;” by a 49-31 margin O’Donnell is not. 18% say a Sarah Palin endorsement would make it more likely for them to vote for a candidate, while 52% say less likely. 15% say they’re members of the Tea Party, 71% are not. All in all, a pretty serious indication that the Delaware Republican Party, shrunken by the defection of many moderates to the Dems as in many other northeastern states, has been distilled to irrational purism in its purest essence.

UPDATE: Swing State Project is moving this race to Lean Democratic (from Lean Republican). While this poll might be more suggestive of “Likely D,” we don’t want to underestimate the power of a particularly revved-up Republican base in an open-seat race, even in a blue state like Delaware.

OH St.-House: Campaigns Ramping Up

[cross-posted at DLCC.org – SSP has been paying a lot of attention to the Ohio House and Ohio redistricting, so we hope the latest campaign news is of interest to folks here.]

Part 1 of 2:

A relative handful of Ohio House contests offer Democrats an opportunity to unpack one of the worst GOP gerrymanders in the country, and they offer Republicans a chance to fine-tune their handiwork and wipe away the Democratic gains since 2006.

Last week was a busy one in the campaign to defend the Democrats' narrow majority, underscoring the two-month sprint that's all that remains between now and Election Day.

Democratic House Speaker Armond Budish started things off on a confident note, predicting that his Caucus’ successful legislative effort on job creation and other campaign advantages would allow House Democrats to localize their races and survive a tough climate:

Democrats will do well against the odds based on the strength of a significant fundraising advantage of roughly 3-to-1 and a strong ground game focused on door-to-door campaigning, he said.

“State rep races are local and even though you all know there is a strong headwind this year, we will keep and expand the Democratic majority in the House because we have a strong message of job creation,” Budish said. The Beachwood Democrat cited a film tax credit, a renewal of the Third Frontier program and a $100 million expansion of the Venture Capital Fund as job-creating efforts pushed by Democrats.

When told that GOP leaders were already predicting victory in the chamber, Budish gave a characteristically pithy response:

“At the local level, Ohioans understand that we have fought for them, and we've put their interest first,” Budish said. “We're hearing that people want common-sense solutions. They don't want extreme ideology.”

Talking to reporters, Budish gave the exact measurements of the windows in the speaker's office, suggesting that Minority Leader William G. Batchelder could now stop measuring the curtains and “maybe he can spend time working with us on policy for a change.”

That same day, the Dayton Daily News profiled two districts where observers feel Democrats remain on the offensive:

Republican Seth Morgan holds the 36th District seat but is not seeking re-election because he ran for the GOP nomination for auditor and lost. Democrat Carl Fisher, Jr., a Huber Heights school board member, is running against Republican Michael Henne of Clayton, an insurance agency co-owner.

Henne was a GOP “second choice” who won the nomination after frontrunner Joe Ellis had a bar fight, Budish said.

The 72nd is more competitive but Republican incumbent Ross McGregor, who’s seeking re-election, won in 2006 and 2008, great years for Democrats.

Democrat Gregory Krouse, a teacher and president of the Springfield Education Association, is challenging McGregor.

Winning either of these districts would complicate GOP electoral math, but it would also strongly suggest Democrats are doing well enough statewide to retain their majority.

Finally, as if to reinforce Speaker Budish’s original point, Democrats got two pieces of good news for their candidates. First, the GOP nominee in the Columbus-based 25th district withdrew from the race – leaving Democratic nominee Michael Stinziano unopposed this November. Stinziano was already considered the favorite in this race, but one fewer open seat to worry about is always good news for the defending party.

Second, the AFL-CIO has announced the start of its own Get Out the Vote operation targeting 650,000 union households in Ohio:

The Ohio union has established 16 call centers in cities across the state from which voluteers talk nightly with prospective voters about union-friendly candidates. Ohio AFL-CIO, which represents 650,000 workers from 1,600 local unions, also is targeting direct mail and worksite leafleting to union households and members.

Focused on helping the Democrats’ statewide ticket, this effort is also likely to boost down-ticket Democrats in vote-rich swing areas of the state – exactly the areas where swing legislative districts tend to be concentrated.

Part 2 of this series will look at the Democratic House Caucus’ field effort.

Gubernatorial Cattle Call (September 2010)

In lieu of a morning digest, let’s continue our series of community surveys by holding a cattle call for all the Governor’s races up this year.

In case you haven’t done one of these before, rank the gov seats that are up this fall in order of likelihood of flipping party control. The traditional SSP way is to include seats held by both parties in a single list (separate lists make comparisons harder). Go as far down the list as you like. If you need some food for thought, check out Swing State’s gubernatorial race ratings. Have fun!

NH, NY, and WI Results Thread #4

3:00am: Still no call in NH-Sen, or even much of any progress. Only a few more precincts trickled in over the last hour (now 83% reporting). Apparently they were Ovide-friendly areas, though, because Ayotte’s lead shifted down to 964. We can stick a fork in the last other race that’s still outstanding: incumbent Adrian Fenty has reportedly conceded to Vincent Gray in the Washington, DC mayoral primary. With that, we’re hanging it up for the night!

2:08am: If you’re wondering what’s up with NH-Sen, it’s still a smallish Ayotte lead, now with 82% reporting. Ayotte leads Lamontagne by 1,346 (still 38-37).

2:05am: And here’s some bigass news via the Twitter: Rick Lazio, who has the Conservative line, is planning to “fight it out” through November. Not that it’ll have an impact on the bottom line… now Andrew Cuomo gets to win 70-15-15 instead of 70-30.

2:03am: It’s over in NH-01: the AP has called it for Frank Guinta. With 81% reporting (91/113), he’s now beating Rich Ashooh and Sean Mahoney 32-28-28 (Mahoney got a late surge as Portsmouth came in). He has a 2,200 vote lead over Ashooh. The baggage-laden Guinta faces Carol Shea-Porter in November.

1:26am: One last projection from the SSP mainframe: we’re seeing a 1,838-vote win for Ayotte, and a 2,486-vote win for Guinta. That’s based on the latest batch of precincts (taking us up to 238 of 301, which is 79% in). Right now, Ayotte leads Lamontagne by 1,213 (38-37), while Guinta leads Ashooh by 2,237 (32-28).

1:22am: The AP has also called NH-02 for Charlie Bass. He currently leads Jennifer Horn 43-35, with a margin of about 4,000 votes, with 80% reporting. Unfortunately, facing the moderate and well-known Bass makes our matchup with Ann McLane Kuster more difficult than a matchup against teabagging Horn.

1:20am: AP has called the NY-AG race, and Maggie Haberman is reporting that Kathleen Rice has conceded, making Eric Schneiderman the Dem AG nominee. (Oh, who am I kidding… making him the AG.) It’s 34 Schneiderman, 31 Rice, with 91% reporting.

1:14am: And in NH-02, with 69% reporting, Bass leads Horn and Giuda 42-36-17. Bass’s lead is 2,708. Our model projects a 4,1110 vote win for Bass at night’s end.

1:12am: In NH-01, with 69% reporting, Guinta leads Ashooh and Mahoney 33-29-27. Guinta’s lead is 2,131. Our model projects, in the end, Guinta wins by 2,555.

1:10am: Another 10 precincts, so it’s 70% reporting. Ayotte’s up by 792 (still 38-38 with Lamontagne). That moves our projection to 1,576.

1:05am: 20 more precincts just showed up in NH, taking us up to 67% reporting. (Including all of Laconia reporting en masse, apparently.) Ayotte’s now leading Lamontagne by 700 votes. Our model has adjusted to project a final Ayotte victory of 1,593.

1:00am: If you’re wondering where we are currently, and not where we’ll be in the future, it’s Ayotte and Lamontagne both at 38%, with Ayotte up by 421. That’s with 60% reporting. (Bill Binnie is in 3rd at 14%, with 12K votes. If he spent $6 million of his own money, that’s only about $500 per vote.)

12:56am: SSP Labs is bending the curve downward: now we’re seeing a 1,441 Ayotte victory after everything’s been counted.

12:48am: Sarah Palin appears to have either dropped her BlackBerry on the floor, or else has lapsed into speaking Norwegian, with her latest Tweet:

Competitive trongmsgssent& tonite;congrats 2 the victors;Now, Commonsense Constitutionalists, let’s unite

12:46am: In case you were wondering, Mike Castle has now made clear that he will not endorse or otherwise support Christine O’Donnell. (No word on a Coons endorsement?) He also made clear that he won’t pursue a write-in bid, which would be most he could do.

12:44am: The AP has also now called NY-Sen-B’s GOP primary for Joe DioGuardi (who also has the Con line). He wins over Malpass and Blakeman, 42-38-20. With Kara departed from American Idol, I suppose Joe resumes being the most famous member of the DioGuardi clan.

12:41am: Here’s a couple calls from the “who cares?” department that we didn’t mention earlier: Jay Townsend (who also has the Con line) won the NY-Sen-A GOP line, 54-46, over Gary Berntsen. And in MD-Sen, Eric Wargotz eventually won the GOP nomination; he’ll face off against Barb Mikulski.

12:35am: SSP Labs has adjusted the NH-Sen projection, with the recent Ayotte surge. Now we’re looking at Ayotte by 1,783 in the end.

12:34am: Looks like Charlie Bass may have bottomed out early in NH-02 and is starting to put some distance between him and Jennifer Horn. Now he’s up 42-36, with 17 for Bob Giuda.

12:29am: Nathan Gonzales, ongoing debunker of the “anti-incumbent” meme, points out that as of tonight, 415 of 422 incumbents (House + Senate) have won re-election.

12:24am: In fact, the switch is already underway: the AP is seeing, for the first time, Kelly Ayotte in the lead. She’s up 39-38 (with a 200-vote spread), with almost half reporting. It doesn’t look like any of the bigger cities (other than Manchester and Nashua, who are done) reported anything, so the difference seemed to come from small towns.

12:22am: SSP Labs has kicked into gear, looking at NH-Sen by county-by-county extrapolation. It’s going to go down to the wire, but we’re seeing a 374-vote win for Kelly Ayotte at the end of the count.

12:07am: Matt Doheny wins the GOP nod against Doug Hoffman in NY-23. Cat fud lovers take note: Hoffman still has the Conservative ballot line for November… and Hoffman is Hoffman!

12:05am: We’re now at 40% in, and Ovide’s lead has whittled down to 733 votes. Guinta and Bass are both up by a cool grand.

11:58pm: Lamontagne’s lead has shrunk to 1127, and Bass is now up 910.

11:53 pm: Adrian Fenty is saved from Bob Inglis-dom, having recovered to a 45-54 deficit in DC.

11:50 pm: In New Hampshire, Charlie Bass in NH-02 is the only one who’s seen his lead increase, now to 668 votes. Guinta’s down to 891 in NH-01, and sadly, Ovide’s lead is now down to 1,324.

11:47 pm: For NY-AG, Eric Schneiderman now leads Kathleen Rice by more than 10,000 votes, mostly on his strength in NYC (44-25 over Rice). However, 71% of the city is now reporting, compared to 60% of LI. For NY-Sen-B, Joe DioGuardi continues to lead in all regions of the state with a narrow 42-39 margin.

11:44 pm: At least a second member of the NY State Senate has been booted tonight, the always-sketchy Pedro Espada. Note that both defectors, Espada and Monserrate, have been rejected by voters.

11:40 pm: Reid Ribble the Raging Roofer has been declared the winner in WI-08. Worst incumbent performance of the night, currently, goes to Adrian Fenty, who’s now staring at 70-29 deficit in the DC Mayoral primary. This is in contrast to Charlie Rangel, who’s just been declared the winner in NY-15 with 53%.

11:38 pm: We’re oddly back where we started in NH-02, where Charlie Bass’ lead over Jen Horn is now 203 votes. Guinta leads Ashooh by 950 votes in NH-01, and Lamontagne’s lead over Ayotte is now less than 4%.

11:36 pm: NY-13 has also been called for Michael Grimm.

11:34 pm: Out in NY-01, Randy Altschuler’s been declared the winner. Charlie Rangel is pulling a surprisingly strong 52% in NY-15, while Matt Doheny clings to a 7-point lead in NY-23.

11:26 pm: More NH precincts slowly trickling in, with Bass slightly padding his margin in NH-02, now up to 400 votes. Ovide’s lead continues to slide, now below 4.5%. Further up the ballot in New York, Eric Schneiderman now leads Kathleen Rice, though the city is now 47% reporting compared to 43% of Lawn Guyland. Joe DioGuardi continues to lead for the right to challenge Kirsten Gillibrand, narrowly leading Malpass in the City, on LI, Upstate, and Westchester.

11:22 pm: DavidNYC at the helm here. I’ve been waiting to write these words since February: The AP has called NY-14 for Carolyn Maloney. All is well in the Silk Stocking district. That is all. Carry on.

11:17 pm: With 88% reporting in NY-01, Altschuler is leading Demos 45-30, with Cox at 24.  This is unfortunate since Altschuler has the Conservative line as well, but cat fud lovers need not worry, as there’ll be Meow Mix afoot regardless in NY-23, as Doheny and Hoffman have split the Independence and Conservative lines. With 64% reporting there, Doheny is up 54-46.

11:13 pm: Back in New York, SSP’s ancestral home, there are a slew of House races to report on. Gary Ackerman has had a surprisingly weak performance in NY-05 floating in the 60’s all night, currently 66-34. Ed Towns has been declared the winner in NY-10, also with a 66-34 margin.

11:10 pm: In New Hampshire, Ovide’s lead over Ayotte continues to thin, as more of the areas outside Ovide’s I-93 strongholds start to report. Charlie Bass’ lead is now 220 votes, but with much left to report.

11:08 pm: Meanwhile, in DC, a few more non-absentee precincts have rolled in, with incumbent Fenty now finding himself in a 59-39 hole.

11:05 pm: Real World update: Sean Duffy’s been called the winner in WI-07 with 67%, while Kevin Powell is getting only 34% against Ed Towns in NY-10.

11:03 pm: It turns out that we’re not the only ones that find Rick Lazio boring and lifeless! The AP calls the GOP Gov nod for Carl “Welfare Prison” Paladino, who now earns the right to get his ass handed to him by Andrew Cuomo. Lazio, of course, still keeps the Conservative ballot line…haven’t we had enough Cat Fud tonight?

11:01 pm: These New Hampshire precincts trickle in mighty slowly, but they sure pack a punch. Charlie Bass is now only leading Jen Horn by 202 votes or 1.2% in NH-02. Ovide Lamontagne continues to maintain a slight edge over Kelly Ayotte, though she’s closed to within 5%.

10:58 pm: In the westernmost state tonight, Wisconsin, the GOP Governor’s nod’s been called for Scott Walker, who’s now leading Mark Neumann 56-41 with 37% reporting. In the House races, Sean Duffy has 67% in WI-07; Reid Ribble has 51% in WI-08.

Results:

MA, MD, NH, NY, RI, & WI Results Thread #3

11:01pm: Let’s move the party over here!

11:00pm: We finally have something out of the DC mayor’s race, but it’s only partially absentees. Adrian Fenty (the incumbent) leads Vincent Gray 58-41 (for now).

10:58pm: The AP finally called MD-01, which I’d kind of forgotten about. As expected, Andy Harris beats Rob Fisher; he currently leads 67-33 with 57% in.

10:56pm: Wow, things are just continuing to dwindle for Charlie Bass in NH-02. He’s up over Jennifer Horn now only 41-37, with third wheel Bob Giuda at 17 (meaning that Bass vs. only one teabagger would have been a convincing teabagger win). And that’s with only 16% in.

10:54pm: Is there some hope for Eric Schneiderman in the NY AG race? He’s pulled with 33-27 behind Kathleen Rice as The City starts to report. Schneiderman’s up 45-25 over Rice in NYC, but also 32-21 in Westchester + Rockland. (Rice, the Nassau Co DA, is up 57-22 on Long Island.)

10:50pm: One other prominent Dem state Senator going to massive defeat in New York: Pedro Espada (the coup leader who’s likely going to prison for health care fraud) is losing SD-33 to David Rivera by a whopping 76-17 margin.

10:46pm: 23% are in statewide for the New York GOP. Carl Paladino is still with a serious lead in the Gov race (though still shrinkin): 61-39 over Rick Lazio. In NY-Sen-B, it’s DioGuardi 41, Malpass 40, Blakeman 20. (Could this turn out to be the race that takes the longest tonight to get a call?) And in poor forgotten NY-Sen-A, it’s Jay Townsend 57, Gary Berntsen 43.

10:42pm: Checking back in on our incumbent Dems in New York: in NY-14, Maloney leads Saujani 85-15 with 10% in. In NY-10, Ed Towns is leading Kevin Powell (the other Real World alum in a primary tonight) 66-34 with 15% in. And in NY-15, with 8% in, Charlie Rangel is at 45%, but with his nearest competition (Adam Clayton Powell IV) back at 23.

10:40pm: As expected, William Keating caught a bit of a bounce as his Norfolk Co. base continued to report. The AP just called the MA-10 Dem primary for him (he’ll face off against Jeff Perry). He’s ahead of O’Leary 55-45 with 77% reporting.

10:36pm: No, it’s not you… New Hampshire is still moving in slow motion. NH-Sen is at 20% in, with Lamontagne at 44 and Ayotte at 36. Could tighten as the state’s outer reaches report. In NH-01 for the GOP, it’s Guinta 37, Ashooh 34, Mahoney 20 (with 28% in); bad news for Guinta is that all of Manchester has reported. And in the GOP’s NH-02, it’s Charlie Bass looking weak in the face of a teabagging; he leads Jennifer Horn 43-36 (with only 15% in).

10:34pm: For some reason, 19% are in in the Dem AG primary, despite that also being statewide. Kathleen Rice is in the lead at 36. Coffey’s at 25 and Schneiderman’s at 22. Also an interesting note for state Senate watchers: long-time Dem state Sen. William Stachowksi lost a primary in his Buffalo-area seat to Tim Kennedy by a wide margin.

10:33pm: The Carl Paladino lead is shrinking quite a bit, as places other than Buffalo report. His lead on Rick Lazio in the GOP gube race in New York is down to 67-33, with 13% in.

10:30pm: Paul Begala sums up the night, and pretty much all of politics: “If Christine O’Donnell can’t stand masturbation, she’ll hate the US Senate.”

10:28pm: Wow, things flipped in the GOP primary in NY-23. With 17% in, Matt Doheny now leads Doug Hoffman 56-44.

10:25pm: Only 2% is in in the GOP primary in NY-13, but the marginally employed Mike Grimm has a big lead over possibly ‘connected’ Mike Allegretti, 65-35. Further out Long Island, Randy Altschuler’s still leading George Demos and Chris Cox, 46-31-23, in NY-01 (31% reporting).

10:23pm: Charlie Rangel’s looking in better, but still weak, shape, up to 57% now with 1% reporting in NY-15. And here’s a surprise, in NY-05, not on anyone’s radar: long-time backbencher Gary Ackerman is at only 65 (with 3% reporting) to the unheralded P. Maher’s 35.

10:22pm: This won’t surprise you, but Kirsten Gillibrand has been called the winner of the Dem Senate primary.

10:21pm: RI-02 has been called by the AP for Jim Langevin, who with 56% of the vote can be added to the long list of Reps. surviving their 2010 primary with lower-than-usual numbers.

10:18pm: Things are super-close in MA-10 right now on the Dem side. Keating leads 50.5-49.5 over O’Leary, with 60% in. But Keating may push that lead, as less of his base (Norfolk and Plymouth Cos.) has reported (53%) than O’Leary base (Barnstable: 74% reporting). Both lead 69-31 in their respective turfs.

10:17pm: Ooops, thanks to the RGA press release, I’ve been reminded that there was a GOP gubernatorial primary in Rhode Island. Former communications director for Don Carcieri, John Robitaille, is the nominee, beating former state Rep. Victor Moffitt 69-31.

10:15pm: No surprise here; the AP has called WI-Sen for Ron Johnson on the GOP side, with 84% of the vote. In the Gov race, with 13% in, it’s Walker 51, Neumann 46, but not much Milwaukee Co. has reported yet so Walker’s lead should go up.

10:12pm: The margin for Frank Guinta in NH-01 on the GOP side keeps narrowing: he’s only leading at 37 now (with 30% reporting), but it’s Rich Ashooh, not Sean Mahoney, who’s closing. Ashooh’s at 34, with Mahoney still at 20. By the way, in the NH-02 GOP primary, with only 14% reporting, Charlie Bass leads Jennifer Horn 45-34. The current tally on the Dem side (already called) is Kuster 74, Swett 26.

10:11pm: David Cicilline, despite being in the low 30s, has been called the winner in the Dem primary in RI-01 by the AP. He’ll face John Loughlin in November.

10:10pm: Yikes, check out the O’Donnell photo at the WaPo!

10:08pm: We’re up to 19% in NH-Sen, still not much new to say there: 45 for Lamontagne, 36 for Ayotte.

Hope you’re enjoying the Fancy Feast, John Cornyn!

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