Swing State Project

• AZ-Sen, AZ-Gov: The signature by Gov. Jan Brewer (which may have helped her survive the GOP primary, but may also hurt her in the general) of Arizona’s new aggressive anti-immigrant law was the key motivating factor in a new Democratic candidate getting into the Senate race: civil rights activist Randy Parraz. He’ll face Rodney Glassman in the Democratic primary. (Why not the, y’know, Arizona Governor’s race instead? Apparently Glassman looks like easier primary opposition than AG Terry Goddard in the governor’s race… and at any rate, John McCain and J.D. Hayworth have both been beating the war drums on immigration.) And here’s an interesting take on the immigration law: ex-Rep. Tom Tancredo just came out in opposition to it, saying, “I do not want people here, there in Arizona, pulled over because you look like should be pulled over.” If even Tom Tancredo thinks you’re doing it wrong… you’re probably doing it wrong.

• CT-Sen: Linda McMahon’s campaign doesn’t seem to be doing anything illegal here, but there’s still no good way to spin this: the campaign has been offering students an extra $5 bounty (on top of a flat hourly rate) for every Republican registered during a Univ. of Connecticut voter registration drive. It’s a practice that the DOJ has frowned upon.

• IL-Sen: In the wake of the seizure of the Broadway Bank, Alexi Giannoulias wasted no time in getting an explanatory ad on the air, laying it out in easy-to-grasp points: one, he hadn’t worked there in years and when he left it was fine, two, the broader economy took the bank down, and three, speaking of that economic downturn, don’t vote for unemployment-benefits-denying Mark Kirk.

• MD-Sen: OK, maybe all those Barb Mikulski retirement rumors will finally go away. She just had her campaign’s official kickoff event on Friday. She has 24 times the cash of her likeliest Republican opponent, Queen Anne’s Co. Commissioner Eric Wargotz.

• NC-Sen: Elon University’s out with another poll; they still aren’t doing head-to-heads, but have some assorted other numbers that Richard Burr would probably rather not see. His approvals (among flat-out everybody, not even RVs) are 28/37 and 26% say he “deserves re-election” with 44% saying “time for a new person.”

• NV-Sen: A poll for the Nevada News Bureau performed by PMI finds Sue Lowden leading the pack in the GOP Senate primary, at 41. Danny Tarkanian is at 24, Sharron Angle is at 17, and “someone else” is at 18. The poll was taken on the 22nd, shortly after Lowden laid out her support for trading chickens in exchange for poultices and tinctures.

• NY-Sen-B: Long-time Rockland Co. Exec Scott Vanderhoef has decided not to pursue a run against Kirsten Gillibrand, after having spent a month in exploratory mode, saying the money’s just not there. Vanderhoef probably found he didn’t have the name rec outside of Rockland Co. to have an advantage against the odds and ends in the GOP primary, let alone in the general.

• UT-Sen: Another poll of GOP delegates for the convention in Utah isn’t as bad for Bob Bennett as the one leaked to Dave Weigel last week, but it still looks pretty bad for him. Mike Lee leads the way among first-choice votes at 31%, followed by Bennett at 22% (and then Tim Bridgewater at 17% and Cherilyn Eagar at 10%). 41% of delegates say they will “absolutely not” vote for Bennett, so even if Bennett picks up the other 59%, he still can’t nail down the nomination at the convention (as there’s a 60% threshold).

• WA-Sen: Everyone seemed a little taken by surprise by Friday’s SurveyUSA poll of the Washington Senate race, which has non-candidate (for now) Dino Rossi leading Patty Murray 52-42 (and leading the various no-name GOPers actively in the race by 2 or 3 points). Even the Rossi camp is downplaying it, saying that their internal polling places Murray in the lead – which is an odd strategy for someone who got gifted an outlying poll, unless either he’s trying to rope-a-dope Murray into complacency or privately cursing the results saying “aw crap, now I have to run for Senate.” One of the no-namers, motivational speaker Chris Widener, got out of the race on Friday, which may also portend a Rossi run (or just having taken a stark look at his own finances). Murray’s camp may have gotten advance warning of the SurveyUSA poll, as on Friday they leaked their own internal from Fairbank Maslin giving Murray a 49-41 lead over Rossi, very consistent with R2K’s recent poll.

• IL-Gov: Oh, goody. Scott Lee Cohen, having bailed out/gotten booted off the Democratic ticket as Lt. Governor nominee after his criminal record became news, still has a political issue that needs scratching. He’s announcing that he’s going to run an independent bid for Governor instead. Considering how thoroughly his dirty laundry has been aired, he seems likely to poll in the low single digits; I have no idea whether his candidacy (which now appeals mostly only to the steroid-addled pawnbroker demographic) is more harmful to Pat Quinn, Bill Brady, or just the world’s general sense of decency.

• MI-Gov: When I heard a few weeks ago that Geoffrey Fieger (the trial lawyer best known for defending Jack Kevorkian and second-best-known for his awful turn as 1998 Democratic gubernatorial nominee) was pondering another gubernatorial run, I laughed it off. The new EPIC-MRA poll makes it seem a bit more serious, though… which, in turn, if he won the primary, would pretty much foreclose any Democratic shot at winning the general. They only polled the Democratic primary and find, thanks to name rec within the Detroit metro area, Fieger is actually comfortably in the lead at 28%. Andy Dillon is at 20, Virg Bernero is at 13, Alma Wheeler Smith is at 8, other is at 2, and 29% are undecided. Fieger hasn’t moved much to act on his interest, though, and has only three weeks to collect the necessary 15,000 signatures to qualify.

• FL-24: Karen Diebel earned the backing of Tom Tancredo in the GOP primary in the 24th, focusing on (with Tancredo, what else?) in the immigration issue. It seems less of a pro-Diebel endorsement than more of a slap against her GOP opponent Craig Miller, though; in a 2006 Miami Herald op-ed, Miller (who was at that point chairman of the National Restaurant Association) came out pretty solidly on the “cheap labor” side of the Republican split on immigration.

• GA-12: Democrats looking for an upgrade from ex-state Sen. Regina Thomas (who raised $10K last quarter and has $4K CoH) for a primary challenge to recalcitrant Blue Dog John Barrow are going to have to keep looking. State Sen. Lester Jackson decided to take a pass, and will stay neutral in the Barrow/Thomas race. He’ll focus instead of supporting the Senate bid of Labor Comm. Michael Thurmond (another rumored, but no-longer, challenger to Barrow).

• LA-03: Bobby Jindal just appointed Scott Angelle, the state’s Sec. of Natural Resources, to the vacant position of Lt. Governor. Why is this filed under LA-03? Angelle was rumored to be one of the top contenders to run for the 3rd (although it was unclear whether he was going to do it as a Dem or a GOPer… Angelle was a Dem in the legislature, but appointed by GOP Gov. Jindal to his cabinet). With Angelle saying he’ll return to his job at Natural Resources after a permanent replacement is elected, that means that former state House speaker Hunt Downer is pretty well locked-in as the GOP nominee in the 3rd, and the Dems aren’t likely to get an upgrade from attorney Ravi Sangisetty, making this open seat a very likely GOP pickup. (H/t GOPVOTER.)

• NY-01: Randy Altschuler got the endorsement from the Suffolk County Conservative Party on Friday, which guarantees him a place on the ballot if he wants it. He’ll still need to overcome Chris Cox and George Demos in the competitive three-way moneybags duel in the GOP primary (where the county GOP recently switched its endorsement from Altschuler to Cox). It’s unclear whether he’d keep the Conservative line if he lost the GOP primary, as that would create a NY-23 type situation and pretty much assure Rep. Tim Bishop’s safety. (Unlike the patchwork of counties in the upstate districts, all of the 1st is within Suffolk.)

• NY-29: The GOP would really, really like to have a special election in the 29th, despite David Paterson’s apparent intention to play out the clock until November (and prevent a possible GOP pickup, given the difference in strength between the likely candidates). Several GOP party chairs within the district are preparing a lawsuit that would force a special election; the state GOP plans to assist.

• OH-02: Bad news for Jean Schmidt: although she got the Hamilton Co. GOP’s endorsement in the previous two elections, she’s going to have to proceed without it this year. They’re staying neutral as she faces several primary challengers, most notably Warren Co. Commissioner Mike Kilburn.

• PA-12: In battling independent expenditures in the 12th, the GOP went large, as the NRCC plunked down $235K on media buys. The DCCC also spent $16K on media buys.

• SC-04: The dean at Bob Jones University (the crown jewel in the buckle of the Bible Belt, in Greenville in the 4th), Robert Taylor, has announced he’s supporting Trey Gowdy in the GOP primary instead of incumbent Rep. Bob Inglis. The occasionally-moderate Inglis (more stylistically than in actual voting substance, though) faces at least three right-wing competitors in the primary, but could run into trouble if he doesn’t clear 50% and gets forced into a runoff with one of them.

• WV-01: There are dueling internal polls in the 1st, in the Democratic primary. State Sen. Mike Oliverio was first to release a poll, saying he led Rep. Alan Mollohan 41-33. (One caveat: Oliverio’s pollster is Orion Strategies, owned by Curtis Wilkerson, who also just happens to be Oliverio’s campaign manager.) Mollohan struck back with a poll from Frederick Polls giving him a 45-36 lead over Oliverio, with the primary fast approaching on May 11.

• MA-AG: Despite it now being widely known that Martha Coakley has a glass jaw (or what’s something more fragile than glass? what do they make those fake bottles out of that they use in bar fights in the movies?), she may actually get re-elected Attorney General without facing any GOP opposition whatsoever this fall. Of course, that may have something to do with the fact that the GOP’s entire bench in Massachusetts just got elected to the Senate.

• Pennsylvania: The Philadelphia Inquirer has an interesting look at the changes in registration in Pennsylvania over the last decade. The Democratic Party grew substantially in the state’s east, gaining 550,000 registrations up to 4.3 million voters. The GOP shrank by 103,000 registrations down to 3.1 million votes. The Dems lost 20,000 voters in the state’s southwest, though; in 2002, 27.8% of the state’s Dems were in the Pittsburgh area, but that’s down to 23.8%. Contrast that with the Philadelphia metro area: in its five counties, the number of Republicans dropped 13.5%, from a million to 873,000.

• Redistricting: Here’s the last redistricting resource you’ll ever need: a handy map showing congressional and legislative redistricting procedures for all 50 states. There’s also an accompanying document (pdf) which goes into remarkable detail about the various processes, and even contains an appendix of some of the ugliest current gerrymanders.

AZ-Gov (4/15, likely voters, 3/16 in parentheses):

Terry Goddard (D): 40 (45)

Jan Brewer (R-inc): 44 (36)

Some other: 9 (12)

Not sure: 6 (7)

Terry Goddard (D): 34 (38)

Dean Martin (R): 47 (43)

Some other: 8 (6)

Not sure: 11 (13)

Terry Goddard (D): 37 (42)

John Munger (R): 44 (36)

Some other: 10 (13)

Not sure: 9 (9)

Terry Goddard (D): 37 (37)

Buz Mills (R): 46 (43)

Some other: 8 (7)

Not sure: 9 (13)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

AZ-Gov (R primary) (4/13, likely voters, 3/16 in parentheses):

Jan Brewer (R-inc): 26 (20)

Buz Mills (R): 18 (19)

John Munger (R): 14 (10)

Dean Martin (R): 12 (21)

Some other: 6 (7)

Not sure: 24 (23)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

CA-Gov (4/19, likely voters, 3/15 in parentheses):

Jerry Brown (D): 44 (40)

Meg Whitman (R): 38 (40)

Some other: 9 (6)

Not sure: 9 (14)

Jerry Brown (D): 50 (42)

Steve Poizner (R): 32 (27)

Some other: 10 (13)

Not sure: 8 (18)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

FL-Gov (4/15, likely voters, 3/18 in parentheses):

Alex Sink (D): 38 (36)

Bill McCollum (R): 45 (47)

Some other: 7 (5)

Not sure: 10 (12)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

FL-Sen (4/19, likely voters, 3/18 in parentheses):

Kendrick Meek (D): 22 (25)

Marco Rubio (R): 37 (42)

Charlie Crist (I): 30 (22)

Not sure: 11 (11)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

GA-Sen (4/22, likely voters, no trendlines):

Michael Thurmond (D): 35

Johnny Isakson (R): 51

Some other: 6

Not sure: 8

(MoE: ±4.5%)

IN-Sen (4/13-14, likely voters, 3/17-18 in parentheses):

Brad Ellsworth (D): 33 (34)

Dan Coats (R): 54 (49)

Some other: 5 (6)

Not sure: 9 (12)

Brad Ellsworth (D): 33 (32)

John Hostettler (R): 50 (50)

Some other: 5 (4)

Not sure: 12 (15)

Brad Ellsworth (D): 36 (34)

Marlin Stutzman (R): 41 (41)

Some other: 7 (6)

Not sure: 16 (18)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

MD-Gov (4/20, likely voters, 2/23 in parentheses):

Martin O’Malley (D-inc): 47 (49)

Bob Ehrlich (R): 44 (43)

Some other: 2 (2)

Not sure: 7 (5)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

NC-Sen (4/19, likely voters, 3/22 in parentheses):

Elaine Marshall (D): 32 (35)

Richard Burr (R-inc): 50 (51)

Some other: 6 (6)

Not sure: 12 (8)

Cal Cunningham (D): 31 (32)

Richard Burr (R-inc): 53 (51)

Some other: 4 (7)

Not sure: 13 (11)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

PA-Gov (4/15, likely voters, 3/16 in parentheses):

Dan Onorato (D): 36 (29)

Tom Corbett (R): 45 (46)

Some other: 8 (7)

Not sure: 11 (17)

Jack Wagner (D): 27 (33)

Tom Corbett (R): 48 (46)

Some other: 11 (6)

Not sure: 14 (16)

Joe Hoeffel (D): 29 (28)

Tom Corbett (R): 49 (49)

Some other: 11 (5)

Not sure: 11 (18)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

TX-Gov (4/14, likely voters, 3/3 in parentheses):

Bill White (D): 44 (43)

Rick Perry (R-inc): 48 (49)

Some other: 2 (3)

Not sure: 6 (6)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

WI-Gov (4/20, likely voters, 3/16 in parentheses):

Tom Barrett (D): 44 (42)

Scott Walker (R): 46 (48)

Some other: 3 (2)

Not sure: 7 (8)

Tom Barrett (D): 46 (42)

Mark Neumann (R): 46 (46)

Some other: 4 (4)

Not sure: 5 (8)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

WI-Sen (4/20, likely voters, 3/16 in parentheses):

Russ Feingold (D-inc): 48

Richard Leinenkugel (R): 37

Some other: 7

Not sure: 8

Russ Feingold (D-inc): 49 (49)

Terrence Wall (R): 43 (40)

Some other: 3 (3)

Not sure: 5 (9)

Russ Feingold (D-inc): 49 (51)

Dave Westlake (R): 38 (35)

Some other: 4 (5)

Not sure: 9 (10)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

For purposes of this diary, the Pacific Coast is defined as Alaska, Hawaii, California, Oregon, and Washington.  These states today, sans Alaska, are considered reliably Demcratic states for Team Blue.  This hasn’t always been the case in Presidential elections where two Republican Presidential candidates had strong ties to California (Reagan, Nixon).  

US Presidential elections Realignment

The following is a history of how each state supported the Democratic candidates:

1960:  Kennedy wins HI

1964:  Johnson wins all 5 states

1968:  Humphery wins WA and HI

1972:  McGovern doesn’t win any of these states

1976:  Carter wins HI

1980:  Carter wins HI

1984:  Mondale doesn’t win any of these states

1988:  Dukakis wins HI, OR, and WA

1992 thru 2008:  Democrats win all but AK

In fairness to the Democrats, the Republicans had 2 California Presidential candidates between 1960 thru 1984 (Nixon in 1960, 1968, and 1972, and Reagan in 1980 and 1984).  Also, the Democrats had 2 considerably weak Democratic candidates in 1972 (McGovern) and 1984 (Mondale).  I find it interesting that another presumably weak Democratic candidate (Dukakis) won 3 of these states in 1988.  

US House Representation Realignment

After the 1960 general election, the Democrats had approximately 60% of all house seats (and 64 of the 100 senate seats).  I have inserted below the results of certain general elections.

1960:  21(D), 22(R)

1964:  34(D), 18(R)

1966:  30(D), 22(R)  

1972:  34(D), 23(R)

1974:  40(D), 17(R)

1976:  41(D), 16(R)

1980:  32(D), 25(R)

1982:  38(D), 23(R)

1984:  37(D), 24(R)

1990:  37(D), 24(R)  

1992:  44(D), 25(R)

1994:  34(D), 35(R)

1996:  38(D), 31(R)

2000:  44(D), 25(R)

2004:  45(D), 25(R)

2006:  46(D), 24(R)

2008:  46(D), 24(R)

Fifty years ago, the Democrats and Republicans pretty much had an equal split in House Representation in this region.  After the JFK/LBJ administration and the Watergate years, the Democrats enjoyed a huge advantage of 41-16.  The Reagan revolution and a perceived weak Carter administration gave the Republicans some momentum, but by 1990, the Democrats were once again in the driver’s seat.  This region was decimated in 1994, temporarily giving the GOP a slight advantage in House representation.  By the end of the Clinton administration, the Democrats had the same advantage as it did in 1992.  Since 2000, the Democrats’ advantage has been nominal.

US Senate Representation Realignment

1960:  8(D), 2(R)

1964:  7(D), 3(R)

1966:  6(D), 4(R)  

1972:  6(D), 4(R)

1974:  6(D), 4(R)

1976:  6(D), 4(R)

1980:  4(D), 6(R)

1982:  4(D), 6(R)

1984:  3(D), 7(R)

1990:  4(D), 6(R)  

1992:  5(D), 5(R)

1994:  5(D), 5(R)

1996:  6(D), 4(R)

2000:  7(D), 3(R)

2004:  7(D), 3(R)

2006:  7(D), 3(R)

2008:  9(D), 1(R)

Besides the 1980’s, the Democrats have pretty much controlled the Senate representation in this area.  The dawn of the Reagan revolution gave the Republicans the upper hand in the 1980’s, but the 1990’s provided the Democrats with some much needed momentum.  Today, only Alaska has a Republican Senator within this region.

Conclusions:

The Democrats enjoy a strong advantage in this region as of today.  This region is much more Democratic than the nation as a whole, although that hasn’t always been the case.  To help prove this point, I wanted to compare the US House results in the election years of 1960, 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2008, comparing the national representation in the US House with the Pacific Coast.

Nationwide Democrats House Representation (Pacific Coast in parenthesis)

1960:  60% (49%)

1970:  59% (58%)

1980:  56% (56%)

1990:  62% (61%)

2000:  49% (64%)

2008:  59% (66%)

50 years ago, the Pacific Coast had more Republican representation than the US as as whole.  In 1970, 1980, and 1990, the Pacific Coast Democratic representation was almost identical with the nation. Starting with the 1988 Presidential election and building off the 1996 elections, the Pacific Coast has become more Democratic than the nation as a whole.

Besides Alaska, which is much more conservative (and liberatarian) than HI, CA, WA, and OR, the Pacific Coast is reliably Democratic.  Truth be told, an effective reapportionment in 2012 is much needed in CA.  The Democrats could easily pick up 4-5 seats, if not more, if the California districts were effectively Gerrymandered.  This region should be in the hands of the Democrats for many more years.  In 2010, we will have to play some defense in a couple of districts, most notably WA-3, CA-11, and HI-01.  However, I don’t see any other Democratic districts in which we are endangered.  In the Senate, Barbara Boxer has a fight on her hands.  I’m fairly optimistic that Boxer will prevail even with the GOP nationwide momentum.  Boxer is a politician that won’t go down without a fight.  Murray might be endangered, but I also like her reelection prospects.

We’re part of the way through Minnesota’s gubernatorial nominating convention, which you can follow at the Star Tribune. After three rounds of voting, it’s:

Kelliher, 414.5 or 30.7 percent

Rybak, 370 or 27.4 percent

Thissen, 295 or 21.8 percent

Rukavina 269 or 19.9 percent

State Sen. John Marty dropped out just after the second round. Otherwise, things have not shifted much. Sixty percent is needed to secure the nomination, though several other candidates are pledging to fight through to the primary.

UPDATE: Apparently, Rukavina has dropped out and endorsed MAK. This happened after the fourth ballot, it appears, which MinnesotaMike says went:

MAK 437 (42.8%)

Rybak 380.5 (28.6%)

Thissen 285 (21.4%)

Rukavina 226 (17%)

No Endorsement 4

Strike that – there was an error. Trying again:

MAK: 437 (32.80%)

Rybak: 380.5 (28.56%)

Thissen: 285 (21.39%)

Rukavina: 226 (16.96%)

UPDATE (James): Rybak has pulled out of the race and thrown his support to Kelliher:

Surrounded by a crowd of green-shirted supporters, Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak took the podium at the DFL convention in Duluth Saturday night and withdrew from the race for governor, saying it was time for the DFL party “to come together and support Margaret Anderson Kelliher for governor.”

“Thank you so much,” he told a cheering crowd of activists who rose to their feet. “It is time for the greatest party in history to come together and support Margaret Anderson Kelliher.”

Robert Ehlrich (R), the former Governor of Maryland is running against Martin O’ Malley (D) the incumbent Governor of Maryland. This is like a repeat of 2010 because the two same candidates are running for the same seat, except O’Malley is the Governor this time. Yes, Maryland is a Democratic state where Obama won 62% but a recent Rasmussen poll showed O’ Malley ahead by only three points. http://www.rasmussenreports.co…

Rasmussen usually leans to the right in their polling but still, Maryland should have a competitive race. O’Malley should win though. Obama had a boost from high African American turnout but most political people believe it will be lower. For your knowledge and enjoyment, I have created the baseline for Maryland counties which are the expected percentages for each candidate by county if the race is tied. I factored in the 2006 Gubernatorial election because Ehlrich and O’Malley were the candidates in it. I also factored in the 2008 Presidential election because the results are more recent and should reflect Republican and Democratic trends. The two elections combined should offer a clear picture of Maryland’s county baselines.

A bit about Ehlrich and O’ Malley’s past elections: Ehlrich won in 2002 by running far ahead of Republican percentages in the Baltimore County suburbs of Anne Arundel and Baltimore County (which does not include Balitmore City.) Ehlrich used to represent a congressional district in Republican Baltimore suburbs. In 2006, he was unable to pull big margins from them because O’Malley is the former mayor of Baltimore City and he was popular with the working class Baltimore suburban voters Ehlrich won in 2002. For example, he won Baltimore County with 61% in 2002 but lost by 300 votes in 2006. For Ehlrich to win, he needs to do very well with the working class voters. He did not so he lost with 53%-46%. Enough talk about elections, here are the baselines for 2010 if Ehlrich and O’Malley tied:

Wait, here are some helpful links:

For 2006 election: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20…

For 2008 election:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20…

(I know the percentages do not line up correctly but I cannot fix it.) Now finally the baselines:

County Name O’Malley Ehlrich Other

Alleghany  32%  67%   1%

Anne Arundel  38%  61%   1%

Baltimore County  44%  55%   1%

Baltimore City  73%  26%   1%

Calvert          36%  63%   1%

Caroline  27%  72%   1%

Carrol          23%  76%   1%

Cecil          34%  65%   1%

Charles  49%  50%   1%

Dorcester  30%  69%   1%

Frederick  36%  63%   1%

Garrett          22%  77%   1%

Harford          30%  69%   1%

Howard          48%  51%   1%

Kent          39%  60%   1%

Montgomery  60%  39%   1%

Prince George’s  76%  23%   1%

Queen Anne’s  26%  73%   1%

Somerset  36%  63%   1%

St. Mary’s  33%  66%   1%

Talbot          32%  67%   1%

Washington  32% 67% 1%

Wicomico  34% 65% 1%

Worcester  30% 69% 1%

This is a map for those who like visual aides like myself. The map itself comes from census quick facts but I colored it in.

Dark Red=Ehlrich 70%+

Red=Ehlrich 60%-69%

Light Red=Ehlrich 50%-69%

Blue=O’Malley 60%-69%

Dark Blue= O’Malley 70%+

As seen in the baselines, O’Malley only wins the big three (Baltimore City, Montgomery and Prince George’s Counties.) I think he should barely win Charles County which is trending Democratic quickly. Overall, the baselines should fluctuate a bit but I wanted to stay with election results, not my personal opinion on each county. Any thoughts?

Update: Thank you to everyone who voted in the poll. I will be doing Nevada Senate next. You should see the post either tomorrow or in the next few days. After that, I will do Florida Governor.  

It’s not the east or the west side…

For the longest time, I thought I wasn’t going to have anyone in the Dem primary for my district that I could vote for without holding my nose.  Almost all (and yes, this post is about the one exception) of the Democratic candidates, without failing, have come out against health care reform, EFCA, so on and so forth.  The presumed front runner is the worse, going above on beyond even being a conservative Democrat, sitting on the board of a hate group and introducing a bill to bring back public hangings in the legislature:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/…

Now this is a district where a bit of conservatism (social conservatism-it has a New Deal style populism) is necessary.  For example, no candidate is going to get anywhere saying anything bad about guns.  But these goons are going overboard, big time.

But there’s one candidate in the race that’s talking like a Democrat, acting like a Democrat, and is not ashamed to say that he is, in fact, a Democrat.  And if the only poll is to be believed, it’s helping him pick up substantial support.

Meet state representative David Cook.

I interviewed Representative Cook for Blue Arkansas, and walked away impressed.  He’s not the most polished or charismatic candidate, and he’s not what a lot of you guys would consider liberal.  But by Arkansas standards, he’s really good.  Go ahead, watch for yourself:

http://bluearkansasblog.com/?p…

David Cook is the only candidate in this race who said he would have voted for health care reform.  He stood up for EFCA at the second debate, the only candidate to say he’d support it, and people sat up and took notice when he started talking (surprisingly poetically) about all the things that unions and working people have done for this country.   You could tell by the reactions, the way he did it A) resonated with the audience, and B) set him apart from the other candidates who are all trying to mimic each other.  What’s more, he’s leading on the issue of taxing excessive bonuses of the bailout firms, and while he is socially conservative enough not to drive away voters in this district (he’s very pro-gun, which is a must here, and his abortion record is largely conservative as well) he did answer my questions on ENDA and DADT in ways that satisfied this gay man.  In other words, he’s conservative enough to be a good fit for this district, but he has a populist streak that makes him a very appealing option.

What’s more, Cook is running a great grassroots campaign, and I really am impressed by how much harder he’s working than everyone in the district.  I’ve had a chance to take a good look at everyone’s operation here, and his is better even than the candidates that have bigger wallets.  Arkansas, especially this part of Arkansas, is one of those increasingly rare anachronisms in this country where retail politics matters more that big advertising campaigns, and if the only poll taken so far is any indication, Cook’s approach has landed him in second place (with lots of undecideds to reach):

http://bluearkansasblog.com/?p…

I could go on and on about Representative Cook, but I’ll let him speak for himself.  This is the message he relayed to Blue Arkansas after we endorsed him:

http://bluearkansasblog.com/?p…

Read for yourself, and tell me this guy doesn’t have a great story to tell the voters of the 1st district.

   From the Office of David Cook for Congress

   I would like to take this opportunity to thank Blue Arkansas for their hard work and their dedication to Democrats everywhere. While we won’t see eye to eye on every issue, I have found that the staff here are fair and more than willing to give credit where credit is due, even if they don’t completely agree with the person. For these reasons, and many others, I am proud to have the official endorsement of Blue Arkansas.

   I want to specifically address something Blue Arkansas mentioned in their endorsement. They said it was my substance that made me different. I want to let you, the readers, know exactly what they meant by that. It isn’t my 5 years in the Navy. It isn’t my 6 years in the Legislature. It isn’t even my 32 years in education or my 3 college degrees. I am proud of all these things, but they aren’t what separate me from the other candidates. You know how, as parents, you read to your children? As a child, I read to my parents. I was born on the banks of the St. Francis River by midwife. Both of my parents were illiterate as neither had attended a day of school in their lives. My mother believed in America, she believed in Arkansas, and she believed that with a good education, a little luck, a little help and a whole lot of hard work that her children could have a better life than her. She made sure that her children went to school… but that wasn’t enough. We were dirt poor. From before I can remember, I went to school then came home and picked or chopped cotton till after dark. When I was 12 I got promoted to plowing behind a mule which was great because it meant I got a nickel raise. I worked hard to help support my family. I’ve put in spill-ways on rice levies with a shovel and a role of tar paper on my back. I’ve had to count the strips of bacon on my plate to make sure there was going to be enough food for the whole family to eat for the rest of the month.

   I know what it’s like to be hungry. I know what it’s like to be poor. I know what it’s like to be sick and have no money for health care or medicine. And I understand that there are a lot of hard-working, good Arkansans that aren’t looking for a hand-out… No, they just need a hand-up so they can work their way to a better life for themselves and their children. I know that without the hand-ups I received in my life, I might still be making my bed on that old river bottom today. For me a hand-up was my high school coach helping me out with food money or clothes and letting me work it off on his farm, or my high school sweetheart’s family finding the money to buy me another pair of shoes when my only pair was stolen out of a gym locker at college.

   These are more than just stories of my life. They have defined my life. These are WHY I spent 32 years as an educator. It’s WHY I went on to work as a Legislator. It’s WHY I voted to increase minimum wage, to reduce the grocery tax twice and to reduce health care cost for seniors. It’s WHY I worked so very hard to improve the educational environment for students and staff. And it’s WHY, when you send me to Congress, you can rest easy knowing that a man is there who gets it. You’ll know a real Arkansan with real Arkansas values is fighting like a scrappy dog to do everything he can to give you the hand-up you need for a better life.

This is a guy who could be a good Democrat in Congress.  This is a guy who can win in this district.  And unless you want to be complaining about a “Democrat” in Congress who sits on the board of a hate group, supported both Bush and Huckabee, and is still trying to explain why he wanted to bring back public hangings, you have every reason to throw ten or twenty dollars his way on ActBlue: http://www.actblue.com/entity/…

(Full disclosure: I don’t work for the Cook campaign and neither does anyone that works with me at Blue Arkansas.  We are activists and supporters, and except for volunteering our time we don’t have any role in the campaign whatsoever.)

• CA-Sen, CA-Gov: SurveyUSA (4/19-21, likely voters):

Tom Campbell (R): 34

Carly Fiorina (R): 27

Chuck DeVore (R): 14

Tim Kalemkarian (R): 3

Undecided: 23

(MoE: ±4.3%)

Meg Whitman (R): 49

Steve Poizner (R): 27

Others (R): 9

Undecided: 15

(MoE: ±4.3%)

Jerry Brown (D): 63

Richard Aguirre (D): 6

Lowell Darling (D): 6

Peter Schurman (D): 1

Others (D): 6

Undecided (D): 18

(MoE: ±3.6%)

It’s nice to see SurveyUSA getting into the game in California (although this poll is primaries only); they find, as did Capital Weekly yesterday, that Meg Whitman’s big lead over Steve Poizner is dissipating. However, with only a few weeks left until early voting begins (on May 10), it seems unlikely Poizner will be able to catch up all the way. Unlike Capital Weekly, though, they find, like most pollsters, that Tom Campbell’s lead over Carly Fiorina in the Senate primary is down in the single-digits. And apparently Jerry Brown has some primary opposition. Who knew? Peter Schurman is one of the founders of MoveOn.org, who launched a last-minute candidacy, but his lack of name recognition seems to relegate him behind some other no-names who at least have more interesting-sounding names (Lowell Darling?).

• FL-Sen: Awwwwwk-ward. George LeMieux is Charlie Crist’s former chief of staff and his hand-installed seat-warmer in the Senate seat that Crist assumed was his for the taking. But now, LeMieux is weighing whether he’ll have to say that he’ll endorse Marco Rubio for the seat if Crist pulls the trigger on his anticipated independent bid. LeMieux is reportedly interested in a 2012 Senate bid against Bill Nelson, and unless he too plans to take the indie route, can’t afford to anger the GOP rabble. PPP’s Tom Jensen takes a look at LeMieux and finds that, with his 13/33 approval (including 15/29 among Republicans), he isn’t likely to be a viable 2012 candidate regardless of how he plays his cards next week.

• KY-Sen: It looks like the story about Dan Mongiardo’s housing stipend may have some legs to it. It was revealed a few weeks ago that Mongiardo was living with his in-laws in Frankfort but still accepting the housing stipend that comes with his job, but now the news is that he used his $30K/yr. housing allowance to buy a Frankfort-area farm where he didn’t live but that, in 2003, he looked into trying to develop as a subdivision. There’s also a last-minute hit on the Republican side of the race, as Trey Grayson filed complaints with a variety of agencies alleging that Rand Paul hasn’t been paying the proper withholding taxes on some of his campaign staff. (They’re listed as “independent contractors,” which means there’s no withholding, but it’s doubtful they meet the legal criteria for being independent contractors.)

• LA-Sen: Local Democrats are asking for federal investigation into allegations that David Vitter threatened to pull federal funds to the (private) University of New Orleans if it allowed Charlie Melancon to speak at a Democratic committee meeting scheduled on campus on April 10. The meeting was subsequently canceled.

• NV-Sen: There’s a debate among the Republican candidates for Senate in Reno tonight; it’s the first major public appearance for Sue Lowden after the chickens-for-care fiasco, so it’ll be interesting to see whether her opponents shower her with derision or if they try to outflank her on the right by throwing even more white meat to the base. Here’s a clue: one of Lowden’s predecessors, former state party chair Chuck Muth, says “It is absolutely breathtaking at how badly the Lowden camp has mishandled the situation.”

• MI-Gov: Ordinarily Mitt Romney endorsements don’t get too much ink here, but this is an interesting one: he endorsed Rep. Peter Hoekstra for Michigan governor. This is relevant in a couple ways: one, Romney is the son of ex-Gov. George Romney and those are meaningful connections, seeing how he fared well in the Michigan primary in 2008, so it carries some weight. And two, if Romney is going to try to be the moderate, sane guy in the 2012 GOP primary, you’d think he’d find a different way to show it than by endorsing the hard-right, strident Hoekstra.

• MN-Gov: The DFL endorsing convention in Minnesota is tomorrow, and the main event is who gets the gubernatorial endorsement… which, given the big crowd, could require many ballots to decide. Six Dems are still left contesting the nomination: Minneapolis mayor R.T. Rybak, state House speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (considered the two frontrunners, based on the precinct-level straw polling), state Sen. John Marty, state Reps. Tom Rukavina and Paul Thissen, and former state Rep. Matt Entenza. Former Sen. Mark Dayton and Ramsey Co. DA Susan Gaertner are also running, but plan to contest the primary no matter what and therefore aren’t bothering with seeking the endorsement. (Entenza also plans to be in the primary no matter what, which means he’s unlikely to get any support at the convention, but still is participating at the convention.)

• NY-Gov: Remind me again why Suffolk Co. Exec Steve Levy is running for Governor as a Republican? I suppose it was because state chair Ed Cox promised him a smooth ride to the nomination, but if the endorsements of the various county-level GOP chairs around New York is any indication, it looks like Cox sold Levy a bill of goods. Levy has been endorsed by only 14 county chairs, with a weighted vote of 26%, while ex-Rep. Rick Lazio has the backing of 27 county chairs with a weighted vote of 51%. 19 chairs remain neutral.

• OH-Gov: When we talk about the money chase, it’s usually focused on the federal races, but Ohio is a good reminder that the money pours into the state-level races too. Big money is at work in the Buckeye State, as incumbent Dem Ted Strickland raised $1.6 million last quarter and has $7.1 million CoH, while GOP challenger John Kasich raised $2 million and has $5.1 million CoH. Even the downballot races aren’t immune: GOP SoS candidate Jon Husted has $2 million in the bank (dwarfing Democratic opponent Maryellen O’Shaughnessy), while Democratic Auditor candidate David Pepper is sitting on $785K, giving him a huge advantage over his GOP opponents.

• FL-08: Former state Sen. Daniel Webster (who’s known for not following through on his intentions to run for things) decided to go through with his threats to run against Rep. Alan Grayson, getting a late start on the race. Webster probably could have cleared the field if he’d gotten in the first time around, half a year ago, but now the various primary opponents (state Rep. Kurt Kelly, Bruce O’Donoghue, Todd Long) say they won’t get out of the way. Webster comes to the table with two big-name endorsements, though, which might help him make up some fundraising ground quickly: Jeb Bush and Mike Huckabee. The local GOP establishment is fractured, though, as Mel Martinez is sticking with his ally O’Donoghue.

• GA-04: Rep. Hank Johnson, facing a competitive Dem primary with Vernon Jones, got a big endorsement today, from one Barack Obama. (Johnson was the first member of the Georgia delegation to endorse Obama.) With Obama having won the black-majority 4th by a 79-21 margin, it’s an endorsement I’d expect that Johnson welcomes.

• NM-02: Apparently there had been some goading of Democratic freshman Rep. Harry Teague from Republican quarters for him to release his internal polling, which he hasn’t done previously. Ask and ye shall receive… Hamilton Campaigns finds Teague leading ex-Rep. Steve Pearce 47-46. That compares favorably to Teague’s internal from August, which, unsurprisingly, he didn’t release; there, Teague trailed 52-42. The one public poll of the race, from PPP in February, gave Pearce a 43-41 lead.

• NY-19: Here’s a weird story out of the GOP primary in the 19th, where ophthalmologist Nan Hayworth is already brandishing lots of money. Apparently there’s a phantom candidate out there by the name of Kristia Cavere, who’s claiming to have raised $300K in a matter of weeks and is now sitting on $400K CoH. That can’t be verified, however, because Cavere’s camp hasn’t filed an FEC Q1 report yet, though, and her spokesperson pointed to a loophole that doesn’t really exist. Furthermore, no one really seems sure what the 31-year-old Cavere does, other than having recently gotten a master’s degree, or how she’d have access to such money.

• OH-13: This is one of those “huh?” moments that makes you check the calendar to see what century you’re living in. The Medina County GOP sent out a mailer with a bullet-pointed list of to-do items. One of them was “Let’s take Betty Sutton out of the House and put her back in the kitchen!”

PPP (4/17-18, New Hampshire voters, no trendlines) (primary numbers):

John Lynch (D-inc): 47

John Stephen (R): 36

Undecided: 18

John Lynch (D-inc): 47

Jack Kimball (R): 35

Undecided: 18

John Lynch (D-inc): 47

Karen Testerman (R): 29

Undecided: 23

(MoE: ±2.6%)

John Stephen (R): 29

Karen Testerman (R): 15

Jack Kimball (R): 10

Undecided: 46

(MoE: ±3.9%)

As PPP’s thorough visit to New Hampshire comes to a close, it looks like John Lynch, New Hampshire’s three-term Democratic incumbent Governor going for a barely-precedented fourth term, is going to have a tougher race than was initially expected. Of course, that’s all relative: the broadly popular Lynch has gotten accustomed to winning by huge margins (70-28 in 2008, 74-26 in 2006), and most pundits expected nothing different this year, so the fact that he’s under 50 and looks like he’ll have to put some effort in campaigning certainly amounts to “tougher.”

I’d have chalked that up to the late entry to the race by John Stephen, a better candidate than was expected, to the extent that he’s a former state Health and Human Services secretary and the guy who narrowly lost the 2008 GOP primary in NH-01 to Jeb Bradley. But Lynch fares pretty much identically against random businessman Jack Kimball, suggesting that declines in the Democratic brand in New Hampshire are rubbing off even on the redoubtable Lynch.