Swing State Project

SEIU’s New England regional political director Mac D’Alessandro has taken the primary plunge against incumbent Stephen Lynch.  (Lynch, for you Progressive Punch score followers, gets a lousy 2 rating, coming from Massachusetts, and has a lifetime progressive score on “Crucial Votes” of 81.87, which drops to 71.95 when focusing on 2009-2010.)

D’Alessandro promises to be a progressive alternative to Lynch.  D’Alessandro’s Facebook group, started this week, is up to almost 900 members.  I’d encourage you to join.  And he just got on ActBlue.  You can help replace ConservaDem Stephen Lynch with a real progressive by making a contribution to Mac D’Alessandro today.

D’Alessandro has also introduced himself to the local progressive netroots at Blue Mass Group:

Greetings, Blue Mass Group!  My name is Mac D’Alessandro.  I’m the New England Political Director for the Service Employees International Union (SEIU); and, as of this week, I am a candidate for United States Congress from Massachusetts’ 9th district.  I am a progressive Democrat, and I’m running for Congress because I believe that the working families in our communities deserve a Congressman who will fight for them and who will actually be a leader on key issues that matter to them – from reforming our health care system (and building on the recently-passed reforms) to holding Wall Street accountable to investing in job creation for our communities to protecting our civil rights and ensuring equal protection under the law.

I have spent my career fighting for working families.  I’ve been with the SEIU for nine years.  Prior to that, I worked for Greater Boston Legal Services, directing legislative efforts to help families combat poverty.  I live in Milton with my wife Jennie, our children Sophie and Atticus, and our cat Nile.  Like most families throughout the district and across Massachusetts, my wife and I sit at our kitchen table on a regular basis, going over our bills and the family budget, paying for today while trying to save for tomorrow.  We see too often that the well-being of Fortune 500 companies are put in front of the good fortune of working families like ours.  That is why I’m running.  The 9th district deserves more than just another representative; the district deserves someone who will champion our Democratic ideals in the U.S. House of Representatives as we fight to balance the playing field for working families like ours.

There were 34 House Democrats who opposed health care reform.  Lynch was the only one from Massachusetts.  And, of those from the 34 who are running for re-election, I still don’t see a lot of primary challenges.  Supporting Mac D’Alessandro’s campaign can send a message nationally to Democrats wavering on other issues (like Wall Street reform).  Mac very much represents what it means to be a “Better Democrat.”  Please spread the word, join the Facebook group, and contribute any amount you can.

• CA-Sen, CA-Gov: I’m starting to think there’s some actual truth to this “Whitman is slipping (having passed the point of diminishing returns on saturation advertising)” meme that’s developing, perhaps illustrated most clearly in yesterday’s Rasmussen poll of the general. That may also be at play in the primary, though, where a new poll from Capital Weekly (by Probolsky Research) finds a smaller (though still dominant) edge for Meg Whitman in the GOP primary; she leads Steve Poizner 47-19 (a 28-pt. lead, quite different from the Field Poll’s 49-point lead last month). Over on the Senate side, Tom Campbell seems to be putting some distance between himself and his competitors; he’s at 31%, with Carly Fiorina at 17 and Chuck DeVore at 14. (No general election matchups were tested.)

• FL-Sen: Although everyone’s sitting and watching, the other shoe still hasn’t dropped yet in Florida. The state GOP is already preparing for the likely independent bid from Charlie Crist, telling its other candidates that they can’t back anybody who isn’t running under the GOP banner. They’ve also rolled out their chief enforcer, Dick Cheney, who endorsed Marco Rubio and who will be inviting Crist-supporting GOPers on hunting trips. Meanwhile, there’s growing speculation that the credit card/fancy-livin’ scandal that’s engulfing the RPOF, and has taken some of the shine off Rubio’s halo, may actually spatter mud as far afield as Crist himself (via for state party chair and key Crist ally Jim Greer). The possibility of a split between two damaged GOPers may be luring a new Democrat to the race, too: billionaire investor Jeff Greene is considering jumping in the primary field (although, considering that every news account about him today seems to be more interested in his relations with Mike Tyson, Heidi Fleiss, and Ron Howard, than with his political chops, I doubt this will be more than a curiosity).

• LA-Sen: While everyone’s still waiting to see if right-wing gadfly James Cain shows up to challenge David Vitter, another lesser-known member of the teabagging set has confirmed that he’s going to run as an independent in the Senate race. Mike Spears, owner of a web design firm, apparently doesn’t have self-funding capacity. He offers up a 5-point plan for “restoring the America he knew growing up,” point 1 of which is the rather ominous, if weird-sounding, “neutralizing party strongholds.”

• PA-Sen: Joe Biden is making his first trip back to Scranton since his election, to stump for Arlen Specter. Fellow members of the local political establishment Bob Casey, Paul Kanjorski, and Chris Carney will be at the event too.

• WA-Sen: Here’s some more food for thought for Dino Rossi, who may still be contemplating a Senate bid (and it seems to be what Tommy Thompson and George Pataki already seemed to understand). No one* in the last decade has launched a Senate bid this late in the game and gone on to win (* = Frank Lautenberg won under unusual circumstances as a last minute fill-in for Bob Torricelli). The closest anyone has come is Mark Dayton, who won in 2000 despite announcing on April 3. The majority of successful non-incumbents ran for more than one year. And prominent members of the state GOP are starting to see the handwriting on the wall, too: state House minority leader Richard DeBolt got tired of waiting and endorsed state Sen. Don Benton in the race instead.

• KS-Gov: This isn’t the right time for Sam Brownback’s approvals to go negative for the first time in years; he’s at 41/47 according to SurveyUSA. Brownback, of course, is looking to make the leap to Governor, facing Democratic state Sen. Tom Holland. Fellow Senator Pat Roberts — less of social values warrior and more of an uncontroversial Main Street type — fares much better at 51/38.

• MN-Gov: Minneapolis mayor R.T. Rybak picked up a couple more endorsements, starting with Rep. Betty McCollum (who represents mostly St. Paul, rather than Minneapolis). McCollum had previously backed Steve Kelley, who dropped out several months ago. And while the SEIU won’t be endorsing, its state president, Javier Morillo-Alicea, individually weighed in on Rybak’s behalf.

• OR-Gov: Blue Oregon has a rundown on the money chase in the Oregon gubernatorial race. GOPer and ex-NBAer Chris Dudley has been raising the most, but also spending the most: raising $1.3 million over the course of the race, but with $276K CoH. Democrat John Kitzhaber has raised $1.2 million, but is sitting on $575K. Everyone else is down in the five digits.

• MO-08: Tommy Sowers has been attracting a lot of attention this week with his second straight quarter of outraising Jo Ann Emerson, but she retaliated with an internal poll showing that Sowers has a long way to go toward knocking her off in this R+15 district. According to pollster American Viewpoint, she leads 71-18.

• NY-23: More evidence that the institutional might is pushing away from 2009 spoiler Doug Hoffman and toward investment banker Matt Doheny instead, for the GOP nomination. Hoffman’s fundraising numbers for Q1 were weak: he took in $14K in outside contributions, and loaned himself $100K. He’s sitting on $263K CoH, but also $205K in debt.

• NY-29: We Ask America has been trying to break into the polling game lately, although we gotta wonder what’s up with their love of significant digits. Are they that sure about their results? They polled the 29th, finding that, if the special election were held today, GOP Corning mayor Tom Reed would beat currently-little-known Democratic candidate Matthew Zeller 41.38%-24.01%. A majority also support having a special election, rather than waiting till November to fill the seat.

• SD-AL: The first candidate to hit the TV airwaves in the GOP primary in South Dakota isn’t the well-known one (SoS Chris Nelson) or the one with money (Blake Curd), but, well, the other one. State Rep. Kristi Noem is up with an introductory spot.

• VA-02: This may seem way, way down in the weeds, but it could help Glenn Nye out a lot, considering that he has the most Navy-centric district in the nation. The main fight of Nye’s short political career has been to keep the Navy from moving one of its carrier groups from Norfolk to Jacksonville; while he lost the first skirmish on that, the Navy now says the move won’t happen until 2019, sparing his district any immediate economic pain.

• CA-LG: The Democrats in the California state Assembly somehow wised up and, reversing their previous decision, decided to confirm moderate Republican state Sen. Abel Maldonado to the vacant Lt. Governor position. With the 51-17 vote, that means that Maldonado will be opening up the Democratic-leaning SD-15 on the central coast, which will be filled by special election (and has the potential to get the Dems one step closer to the magic 2/3s mark in the state Senate).

• WA-Init: In the wake of Oregon voters approving a high-income surtax, it looks like Washington may follow their lead. Proposed Initiative 1077 would create an income tax (Washington currently has none) on individuals making more than $200K, and in exchange lower property taxes and eliminate the nettlesome B&O tax. SurveyUSA polled the topic and found an almost astonishingly high level of support: 66 are in favor, 27 against. More evidence that new taxes, when properly framed, can be a winner at the ballot box.

• RNC: The RNC is subtly getting involved in the HI-01 special election, transferring $90K to the state party in March that went toward a TV spot for Charles Djou. The bigger story about the RNC today, though, may be about the financial disarray in its house: it’s spending more money courting top-dollar donors that it actually gets back from them.

• WATN?: After weighing a variety of different possible candidacies (state CFO? FL-25?), we’re glad to see 2008 FL-18 candidate Annette Taddeo taking another stab at elective office, as we need to expand our Hispanic bench in the bluening Miami area. She’s running for a seat on the Miami-Dade County Council.

PPP (4/17-18, New Hampshire voters, no trendlines):

Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc): 45

Frank Guinta (R): 46

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Katrina Swett (D): 32

Charlie Bass (R): 47

Undecided: 21

(MoE: ±3.4%)

PPP does us a big favor by throwing in both congressional districts (both of which are tossups this year) in with their statewide poll of the Senate and gubernatorial races. We’ve already gotten a sense that these races are potential trouble thanks to a UNH poll from February; the generally more trustworthy PPP finds Dems in better shape in the 1st (where UNH saw Rep. Carol Shea-Porter losing 43-33 to former Manchester mayor Frank Guinta… although bear in mind that UNH saw Shea-Porter losing through most of her first re-election in 2008) but Dems faring even worse in the 2nd.

There’s not too much falloff in Democratic enthusiasm in these districts; their samples went 48-45 for Obama in the 1st and 52-46 for Obama in the 2nd. Instead, there seems to be some antipathy to the Democratic candidates in these districts; Shea-Porter’s approval is 41/50, and Swett fares even worse, somehow managing to be unknown and unpopular among those who know her: 19/29 (including, tellingly, 35/16 among liberals and 35/18 among Democrats). Shea-Porter is pretty much locked-in; her survival will be all about turnout and the Dems’ overall standing come November. But it’d be interesting to see whether Ann McLane Kuster (who’s probably even less known than Swett, but likely in better standing with the Democratic base) fares any better against Charlie Bass, who benefits from being fairly well-known, having held the seat from 1994-2006. Alas, there were no head-to-heads involving Kuster (or, in the 1st, involving the lesser GOPers).

Considering all the hype that this guy received over the past year, this is something of a surprise:

Former Kansas state Sen. Nick Jordan, who at one point was the frontrunner for the GOP nomination in the 3rd district, has suddenly dropped out of the race — which is one of the most competitive open-seat contests in the country.

Jordan lost by 16 points in 2008 to Rep. Dennis Moore (D), who is retiring at the end of this term. The congressman’s wife, Stephene Moore, recently announced she would run for his seat. Jordan faced state Rep. Kevin Yoder (R) in the Aug. 3 GOP primary. However, Jordan’s campaign had been dogged by comparatively poor fundraising; he raised less than $90,000 in the first three months of this year.

“With so many candidates in the Republican primary for the U.S. House of Representatives, I fear we could provide an opening for our liberal congressman’s liberal wife to sneak into office in his place,” Jordan said in an e-mail to supporters.

Jordan’s exit effectively cedes the GOP primary to “moderate” state Rep. Kevin Yoder for now, although ex-state Rep. Patricia Lightner may give Yoder some trouble on his right.

AR-Sen: Bill Halter and Blanche Lincoln are having a debate on Friday, and Politico’s Dave Catanese, one of the moderators, is asking for questions. Click the link to find his email address or Twitter account. Meanwhile, Blanche Lincoln, who has refused to return $4,500 she received from Goldman Sachs’s PAC, has cancelled a fundraiser with the firm.

CO-Sen: Struggling GOP front-runner Jane Norton has booted her top advisors in favor of some new names, including one which may sound a bit familiar: Josh Penry. He’s Norton’s new campaign manager… and also happens to be the sitting state Sen. Minority Leader who briefly ran for governor last year before getting pushed aside for ex-Rep. Scott McInnis. The Colorado legislative session is set to end soon (May 12), so maybe this won’t interfere too much with Penry’s day job.

IN-Sen: This is crappy even for John Hostettler, who usually makes the likes of Larry Kissell and Carol Shea-Porter look like fundraising champs: He raised just $37K since joining the race and has just $10K in the bank. Meanwhile, the hapless Dan Coats got an endorsement from fellow Hoosier Mike Pence, the third-ranking Republican in the House, presidential wannabe, and all-around moran.

WA-Sen: Though Dino Rossi has been largely dragging his feet about a run against Sen. Patty Murray, the DSCC is concerned enough that they supposedly have sent a squad of researchers to Washington to start digging up oppo. But wouldn’t Gov. Christine Gregoire, who beat Rossi twice, already have a mile-long file on him? Meanwhile, Teabagger King Jim DeMint says he won’t endorse anyone against Rossi if he gets in the race – and if anything, seems excited to give Rossi his support.

FL-08: The cast of characters running in the GOP primary in Florida’s 8th CD has been an ever-changing, tumultuous mix – and the field is about to get even more shook-up. Former State Sen. Daniel Webster, who said no to a run back in October, looks like he’s ready to change his mind and hop into the race after all. But while Webster might have cleared the field half a year ago, no one seems interested in bowing out for him now. We can only pray for cat fud galore.

Census: The nationwide census participation rate hit 71% earlier this week, just a point below the 2000 response rate, which officials say is unexpectedly high, given what they perceive as a growing mistrust of government. The Census Bureau had budgeted for a response rate of only 67%, so we’ve already saved $425 million.

Polling: Gallup has a new midterm-focused blog up and running called “2010 Central.”

Fundraising: CQ has a great chart compiling Senate fundraising numbers for Q1. SSP will have its usual House chart up at the end of this month.

Wall Street: Is financial regulation finally the issue that will let Dems find their mojo? Back to Dave Catanese again, who says that Paul Hodes, Lee Fisher and – believe it or not – Charlie Melancon are all bashing their opponents for standing in the way of Wall Street reform. Melancon’s cruddy voting record has made it hard for the DSCC to push out a coordinated message on most issues (he’s voted against a lot of big-ticket Dem legislation), but maybe now we can all speak with one voice on this topic.

NV-Sen: Who runs Bartertown? Sue Lowden runs Bartertown!

There seems to be a flurry of people attempting to redistrict California, so my plan may seem less adventurous than others – especially when compared to the Herculean effort by Silver Springs.

However, I have a different purpose – I want to create a Democratic map that respects existing political lines – cities and counties. The bottom line is that I create a map that creates 39 safe Democratic seats, 8 safe Republican seats, and 6 toss-up seats (each of the toss-up seats were won by Obama. Based on the 2000 demographic data, I create a map with 31 minority-majority districts, including 10 majority Hispanic districts and a plurality African-American district. (*I believe that my CA 45 will be minority-majority with the new census).

Like my NY contest entry, I claim that a safe Democratic seat is one where Obama won with 55% of the vote (Seven Republicans represent districts that gave Obama 55%/16 Republcans represent districts Obama won by over 53%). I have included in my description of each district where the current incumbents live, but their residences did not play a factor in how I drew the map. The map also has no deviation in district size greater than 702.

Northern California

In Northern California, there are five seats, Currently, Republicans hold three of the seats.

In this map, I created three safe Democratic seats, one tossup and one safe Republican seat. To do this, I decided to weaken CA 1 and pack Republicans into CA 4. I did keep the City of Sacramento intact, while dividing the rest of the county amongst 4 other districts.

CA 1 Current Incumbent – none

Population – 706,684

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	80%	1%	2%	10%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	66%	32%	60%
New District	55%	42%
Change	-11%	+10%	-5%

This district sheds territory in the Sacramento Valley for counties on California’s northern border – Siskiyou, Shasta, Modoc, and Lassen counties. While Representative Thompson no longer resides in the district, he, or another Democrat should continue to find this seat winnable.

CA 1 and CA 2 are tough districts to draw. On one hand, I could draw one very safe Democratic district that includes Humbolt, Mendicno, Lake, Napa and portions of Yolo (and Solono) counties. On the other hand, I could draw two 55% Obama districts. At worse, both seats are toss-up seats in open-seat elections.

CA 2 Current Incumbent – Thompson (D-St Helena); Herger (R-Chico)

Population – 706,763

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	68%	3%	6%	19%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	43%	55%	37%
New District	55%	44%
Change	+12%	-12%	+18%

The Northern California districts in the current map generally align North-South, creating two safe Republican seats. In my map, District 2 goes down the West side of the Sacramento Valley, extends into Napa County and South to Vacaville. This should be a strong Democratic seat, and Representative Herger should be in trouble.

CA 3 Current Incumbent – Lundgren (R-Gold River)

Population – 706,602

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	70%	5%	7%	12%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	43%	55%	37%
New District	53%	45%
Change	+10%	-11%	+16%

The Northern California districts in the current map generally align North-South, creating two safe Republican seats. In my map, District 2 hugs the Nevada border, from Plumas to Alpine County. The District stretches into Sacramento County and takes in the suburban areas immediately to the east and south of Sacramento.

This will likely be a swing district for the foreseeable future, but I expect that growth will occur in the Sacramento suburbs and the district will continue to trend Democratic.

CA 4 Current Incumbent – none

Population – 706,552

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	78%	2%	5%	11%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	44%	54%	37%
New District	44%	54%
Change	0%	0%	+7%

CD 4 is composed of the northern Sacramento suburbs and exurbs in Placer and Yuba counties, as well as the Cities of Folsom and Citrus Heights in Sacramento County. Representative McClintock (Thousand Oaks) still does not live in this district.

Reflecting the changing demographics, the district becomes slightly less white than before 84% – 78%, but it is unlikely to become more hospitable for Democrats anytime soon.

CA 5 Current Incumbent – Matsui (D-Sacramento)

Population – 706,349

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	50%	12%	1%	14%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	70%	28%	61%
New District	64%	34%
Change	-6%	+6%	+3%

The District encompasses the City of Sacramento and extends north to Sutter County. The District becomes slightly whiter and more Republican, but it remains a safe Democratic seat.

This District is a minority-majority seat.

CA 10 Current Incumbent – Garamendi (D-Walnut Grove)

Population – 706,645

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	52%	11%	12%	21%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	72%	27%	67%
New District	61%	37%
Change	-11%	+10%	-6%

This district remains a split Bay Area/Sacramento County District. It stretches from Vallejo in the West to the Southern Sacramento suburbs. It dips into Contra Costa County to encompass the cities of Antioch and Oakley and parts of Pittsburg. It also takes in conservative Lodi in San Joaquin County.

Representative Garamendi should like this district, despite the drop in Democratic performance, since he is now a resident of the district.

Bay Area

All safe Democrats.

CA 6 Current Incumbent – Woolsey (D-Petaluma)

Population – 706,661

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	75%	2%	4%	16%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	76%	22%	70%
New District	66%	24%
Change	-1%	+2%	+5%

CA 6 stays fundamentally the same, only taking in the City of Napa and losing parts of Sonoma County.

CA 7 Current Incumbent – Miller (D-Martinez)

Population – 706,254

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	65%	6%	12%	14%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	72%	29%	67%
New District	66%	32%
Change	-4%	+3%	1

This district now stays entirely in Contra Costa County.

CA 8 Current Incumbent – Pelosi (D-San Francisco)

Population – 707,082

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	46%	8%	30%	13%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	85%	12%	84%
New District	85%	13%
Change	0%	+1%	+1%

Slightly whiter than the current district

This is a minority-majority district.

CA 9 Current Incumbent – Lee (D-Oakland)

Population – 706,732

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	35%	25%	1%	17%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	88%	10%	86%
New District	89%	9%
Change	+1%	-1%	+3%

Oakland, Berkeley, Richmond.

This is a minority-majority district.

CA 11 Current Incumbent – McNerney (D-Pleasanton)

Population – 706,025

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	47%	10%	18%	20%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	54%	44%	45%
New District	70%	28%
Change	+16%	-16%	+25%

CA 11 stays in Alameda County and extends slightly north to Southeastern Contra Costa County. The district goes from a swing district to a safe Democratic seat. This does not have a detrimental affect on the Democratic lean in San Joaquin County.

This is a minority-majority district.

CA 12 Current Incumbent – Speier (D-Hillsborough)

Population – 706,600

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	45%	3%	27%	20%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	74%	24%	72%
New District	74%	24%
Change	0%	0%	+2%

Parts of San Francisco, Northern and Eastern San Mateo County.

This is a minority-majority district.

CA 13 Current Incumbent – Stark (D-Fremont)

Population – 706,283

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	44%	3%	27%	22%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	74%	24%	71%
New District	68%	31%
Change	-6%	+6%	-3%

This district now extends from Fremont in the North, circles around to the east and takes in part of South San Jose, and goes south to Gilroy.

Most of Stark's base is now part of McNerney's district (CA 11), but the change is necessary to shore up McNerney's seat. When Stark retires, a Democrat should easily pick up this seat.

This is a minority-majority district.

CA 14 Current Incumbent – Eshoo (D-Menlo Park)

Population – 706,637

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	55%	3%	23%	15%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	73%	25%	68%
New District	73%	25%
Change	0%	0%	+5%

CA 14 now stays out of Santa Cruz County, and extends east into the cities of Los Altos, Mountain View, Sunnyvale, Santa Clara, Cupertino, Saratoga, and Campbell.

CA 16 Current Incumbent – Honda (D-San Jose); Lofgren (D-San Jose)

Population – 706,632

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	30%	4%	28%	34%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	70%	30%	63%
New District	71%	28%
Change	+1%	-2%	+8%

It is difficult placing two Democrats in one seat, but with one of my goals to preserve City lines mostly intact, San Jose should be in one seat. However, packing Democrats in the Bay Area does not negatively affect seats elsewhere, and cracking the Bay Area leads to ugly looking districts throughout the state.

While preserving current incumbents can be valuable, the value of a map should be viewed as a whole, rather than any one particular district.

CA 17 Current Incumbent – Farr (D-Carmel)

Population – 706,776

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	55%	2%	6%	33%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	72%	26%	66%
New District	72%	26%
Change	0%	0%	+6%

CA 17 encompasses Santa Cruz and San Benito Counties, and northern Monterey County (including the cities of Carmel and Monterey).

Central Valley

In the San Joaquin Valley, I create two 55% Obama districts, two 50% Obama districts and a solid Republican district. Assuming that a 55% district will elect a Democrat except in the largest Republican wave years, the worst that can happen in this area is exactly what is the current Congressional Delegation split (3 R – 2 D). In this case, the Republican districts will lean Democratic and only grow stronger because of the demographic changes in the area.

CA 15 Current Incumbent – none

Population – 706,846

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	47%	7%	11%	31%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	–	–
New District	55%	43%
Change	–	–

CA 15 is a new district based in Stockton and rural Stanislaus County. In many respects, the district will reflect the political nature of the entire state, and with a growing Hispanic population, should grow more Democratic as the decade goes on.

This is a minority-majority district.

CA 18 Current Incumbent – Cardoza (D-Atwater)

Population – 706,832

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	48%	3%	6%	38%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	59%	39%	49%
New District	52%	46%
Change	-7%	+7%	+3%

Representative Cardoza will face challenges in this swing district. Personally, he was elected in 2002 with only 51% of the vote, so he should be able to remember how to run a competitive election (he was unopposed in 2008).

The district runs from Modesto to Merced, and extends a bit south to Democratic precincts in east Madera (bypassing Chowchilla). The district is rapidly growing, and the demographics should continue to favor Democrats by the end of the decade.

This is a minority-majority district.

CA 19 Current Incumbent – Radanovich (R-Madera) or new member

Population – 706,439

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	65%	2%	3%	26%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	46%	52%	38%
New District	39%	59%
Change	-7%	+7%	+1%

CA 19 is a very safe Republican district bordering Nevada, from Amador County to Tulare County in the South. The district splits the city of Madera in Madera County with CA 18. In Fresno County, conservative-leaning Clovis is in CA 19.

CA 20 Current Incumbent – Costa (D-Fresno)

Population – 700,226

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	34%	6%	9%	46%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	60%	39%	51%
New District	56%	42%
Change	-5%	+4%	+4%

This Fresno-based district now stays entirely in Fresno County. Obama’s performance drops slightly to preserve compactness.

This is a minority-majority district. I expect it will soon be a majority-Hispanic district.

CA 21 Current Incumbent – Nunes (R-Tulare)

Population – 706,283

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	31%	6%	4%	55%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	42%	56%	34%
New District	50%	48%
Change	+8%	-8%	+16%

King County, Portions of Tulare and Kern Counties. Democratic-leaning precincts in East Bakersfield are also in this district.

The current district goes north from Tulare County into Fresno County. Although I considered drawing Rep. Nunes out of this district, his residence in Tulare is among the most Democratic part of this district. A Democrat may have a hard time unseating Representative Nunes, but the demographic nature of the district will make it a swing seat in normal election years.

This is a majority-Hispanic district.

CA 22 Current Incumbent – McCarthy (R-Bakersfield)

Population – 706,992

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	64%	4%	3%	26%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	38%	60%	31%
New District	38%	60%
Change	0%	0%	+7%

CA 22 remains centrally located in Kern County; it does lose precincts in Bakersfield, and all of San Luis Obispo and Los Angeles Counties. It gains Republican areas in Santa Barbara County and Ventura County, including the cities of Camarillo and most of Moorpark.

CA 23 Current Incumbent – Capps (D-Santa Barbara)

Population – 706,162

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	62%	2%	4%	29%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	66%	32%	58%
New District	58%	40%
Change	-8%	+8%	0

Much of the Republican gain in this district come from the addition of all of San Luis Obispo and Monterey Counties, where the eastern portions of those counties are not as Democratic as the cities and precincts along the Pacific Ocean.

The district continues to be a strong Democratic district.

CA 24 Current Incumbent – Gallegly (R-Simi Valley); McClintock (R-Thousand Oaks)

Population – 707,144

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	55%	2%	5%	34%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	51%	48%	43%
New District	57%	41%
Change	+6%	-7%	+14%

The fruits of these changes in the Central California Coast is changing a swing (lean Republican) district into a solid Democratic district. I do not think that Elton Gallegly would survive in this district, after losing the conservative portions of Ventura and Santa Barbara Counties to CA 22.

Los Angeles County

Los Angeles County has 14 whole Congressional Districts and only has one district split between it and Orange and Riverside Counties. All 14 CD's are Democratic leaning.

CA 25 Current Incumbent – Dreier (R-San Dimas)

Population – 706,354

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	46%	11%	6%	33%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	49%	48%	40%
New District	56%	42%
Change	+7%	-6%	16%

The statistics for this district, which is entirely in Los Angeles County are for CA 25, but Representative Dreier (CA 26) resides in the district. The district includes Lancaster and Palmdale in the North, and Pomona in the Southeast.

A Democrat should be able to win this district, especially since most of the district would be new territory for Representative Dreier.

This is a minority-majority district.

CA 27 Current Incumbent – Schiff (D-Burbank)

Population – 706,392

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	32%	4%	9%	51%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	66%	32%	59%
New District	67%	31%
Change	+1%	-1%	+8%

CA 27 is a Los Angeles – Burbank district. My guess is that the district includes Northridge, Panorama City, San Fernando, and Mission Hills, among others.

 

The district is a majority-Hispanic district.

CA 28 Current Incumbent – Sherman (D-Sherman Oaks), Berman (D-Valley Village)

Population – 706,769

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	30%	4%	10%	51%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	76%	22%	71%
New District	75%	23%
Change	-1%	+1%	+4%

CA 28 stretches across Nothern Los Angeles, from (what I would say) Resenda to Van Nuys, to North Hollywood through Griffith Park to Atwater Village.

The current districts were drawn to ensure that both incumbents resided in different districts. Short of carving out a few precincts to draw Rep. Berman into the 27th, as both Representatives live around 4 miles from each other, I kept the districts more or less compact.

This is a majority-Hispanic district.

CA 29 Current Incumbent – none

Population – 706,337

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	38%	5%	17%	35%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	68%	31%	61%
New District	64%	34%
Change	-4%	+3%	+3%

CA 29 retains the core of the old district, Glendale and Pasadena, but loses Burbank and Alhambra, gaining more northern and eastern suburbs, Sierra Madre, Monrovia, and Aduza.

While Representative Schiff now resides in CA 27, the district should remain a solid Democratic seat.

This is a majority-minority district.

CA 30 Current Incumbent – Waxman (D-Beverly Hills)

Population – 706,711

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	74%	3%	8%	11%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	70%	28%	66%
New District	63%	36%
Change	-7%	+8%	-3%

Waxman's district hugs the Los Angeles – Ventura County line, from Kern County through Santa Clarita to Malibu, and then extends eastward through Los Angeles to Beverly Hills.

CA 32 Current Incumbent – Miller (R-Diamond Bar)

Population – 705,921

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	23%	3%	21%	50%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	68%	30%	62%
New District	61%	37%
Change	-7%	+7%	-1

This district swings easterly. In the North, the district includes Glendora and Covina, in the west: Irwingdale, Baldwin Park and El Monte, and in the south and east: La Habra Heights, Walnut and Diamond Bar.

Representative Chu's residence is now in CA 38, but a Democrat should easily win this district.

This is a majority-Hispanic district.

CA 33 Current Incumbent – Watson (D-Los Angeles)

Population – 706,250

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	25%	5%	16%	51%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	87%	12%	83%
New District	79%	19%
Change	-8%	+7%	-4%

CA 33 wraps around West Hollywood.

This is a majority-Hispanic district.

CA 34 Current Incumbent – Becerra (D-Los Angeles); Roybal-Allard (D-Los Angeles)

Population – 706,977

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	5%	7%	5%	81%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	80%	18%	77%
New District	85%	13%
Change	+5%	-5%	+8

This district includes East Los Angeles, Vernon, Maywood, Huntington Park and portions of Los Angeles County.

This is a majority-Hispanic district.

CA 35 Current Incumbent – Waters (D-Los Angeles)

Population – 706,135

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	2%	50%	2%	43%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	84%	14%	79%
New District	94%	5%
Change	+10%	-9%	+15%

This is a South Los Angeles, Inglewood, Compton district.

This is a majority-minority district.

CA 36 Current Incumbent – Harman (D-Venice)

Population – 706,943

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	45%	11%	12%	28%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	64%	34%	59%
New District	77%	21%
Change	+13%	-13%	+18%

CA 36 extends from Santa Monica to Hawthorne, and has an arm through central Los Angeles. The district becomes much stronger Democratic, as it stays more compact and northerly. A challenger to Representative Harman should find much easier terrain.

This is a minority-majority district.

CA 37 Current Incumbent – Richardson (D-Long Beach)

Population – 706,336

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	8%	19%	10%	60%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	80%	19%	74%
New District	80%	19%
Change	0%	0%	+6%

CA 37 is a donut shaped district around the City of Compton. It includes the cities of Gardena, Carson, northern Long Beach, Paramount, Lynwood, and South Gate. I am not sure if Representative Richardson would actually lives in this district.

This is a majority-Hispanic district.

CA 38 Current Incumbent – Napolitano (D-Norwalk), Linda Sanchez (D-Lakewood)

Population – 707,067

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	35%	7%	14%	41%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	66%	32%	59%
New District	63%	35%
Change	-3%	+3%	+4%

* Old District CA 39

Someone who is reading to this point may think, wait a second, why are there so many Democratic primaries in this map. I want to remind the readers that the current map is a Republican gerrymander, and second, I am more concerned with the entire state delegation rather than one individual. In this particular district, Representatives Napolitano and Sanchez reside in nearly adjacent cities. From pieces from the current CA 36, CA 37, and CA 46, we can create a Democratic performing district from Manhattan Beach to Long Beach. We could then carve up northern Orange County and create two marginal Democratic performing seats – one for Rep. Napolitano and one for Rep. Sanchez. I prefer the stronger seat and one seat that has the potential to become more Democratic performing.

This district extends from Long Beach to Sante Fe Springs along the Los Angeles County border.

This is a minority-majority district.

CA 39 Current Incumbent – none

Population – 706,502

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	18%	2%	24%	54%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	54%	44%
New District	65%	33%
Change	0%	+2%

This district stretches from South Pasadena and San Marnio to Whittier and Downey. The district includes parts of the current CA 38, CA 32, and CA 34.

This is a majority-Hispanic district.

CA 46 Current Incumbent – none

Population – 706,184

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	41%	7%	15%	33%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	-%	-%
New District	60%	38%
Change	-%	-%

This district is the payoff in reversing the Republican gerrymander. In this district, located from Torrence to Long Beach along the Pacific, a Democrat should win comfortably in most election cycles.

This is a minority-majority district.

Orange County

Orange County is currently split into 6 districts, and a Republican holds 5 of them. However, Obama won 3 of those districts in 2008. In this map, I create two safe Democratic seats, and only split Orange County five ways – with only one district extending out of the County.

CA 31 Current Incumbent – Calvert (R-Corona)

Population – 707,092

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	58%	3%	7%	28%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	50%	49%	40%
New District	44%	54%
Change	-6%	+5%	+4%

*old stats are for the current CA 44.

Representative Calvert's district becomes a safe Republican district that extends into Los Angeles County to take in the City of La Mirada, the Orange County cities of Brea and Yorba Linda, and the western edge of Riverside County, including Corona, Murietta and Norco.

CA 40 Current Incumbent – Loretta Sanchez (D-Garden Grove), Royce (R-Fullerton)

Population – 706,539

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	28%	3%	14%	53%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	60%	38%	49%
New District	55%	43%
Change	-5%	+5%	+6%

*old district stats for CA 47

This district combines Fullerton, most of Anaheim, and portions of Santa Ana and Garden Grove to create a competitive, but strongly leaning Democratic district in the north-central part of Orange County.

This is a majority-Hispanic district.

CA 42 Current Incumbent – none

Population – 706,001

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	74%	1%	8%	14%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	45%	53%	37%
New District	43%	55%
Change	-2%	+2%	+6%

This district includes the eastern portion of Anaheim, and Orange, extends South to include the suothern cities of Orange County, and extends north along the Pacific Ocean to include Laguna Beach and portions of Newport Beach. A Republican is very safe here.

CA 47 Current Incumbent – Rohrabacher (R-Huntington Beach)

Population – 706,996

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	56%	1%	21%	18%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	48%	50%	42%
New District	45%	53%
Change	-3%	+3%	+3%

*old district stats for CA 46

This district is an entirely Orange County district, encompassing the cities of Cypress, Seal Beach, Huntington Beach, Fountain Valley, and most of Garden Grove and Newport Beach.

This district should remain a safe Republican seat.

CA 48 Current Incumbent – Campbell (R-Irvine)

Population – 706,454

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	45%	2%	14%	36%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	49%	49%	40%
New District	56%	42%
Change	+7%	-7%	+16%

Creating a second Democratic leaning district in Orange County was not too difficult. I combine the cities of Irvine, Tustin, Costa Mesa and Laguna Woods, and portions of Orange and Santa Ana.

This is a majority-minority district.

Remainder of Southern California – San Bernardino, Riverside, San Diego, Imperial Counties

Currently only three Democrats represent parts of any of these Southern California counties. In my map, Democrats should represent at least 5 districts, Obama won two more districts, and Republicans should only have two safe seats.

CA 26 Current Incumbent – none

Population – 706,612

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	39%	7%	7%	43%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	51%	47%	44%
New District	53%	45%
Change	+2%	-2%	+9%

CA 26 is now located in San Bernardino and northern Riverside County. It includes the cities of Chino, Chino Hills, Ontario, and Rancho Cucamunga. This is a toss-up district, but should lean Democratic most years and the demographics favor the district becoming more strongly Democratic.

This is a minority-majority district.

CA 41 Current Incumbent – Lewis (R-Redlands)

Population – 706,905

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	63%	6%	3%	23%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	44%	54%	37%
New District	42%	55%
Change	-2%	+1%	+5%

This district is located entirely in San Bernardino County. It includes Representative Lewis' residence in Redlands, and the cities of Yucaipa, Victorville and Hesperia.

This is a safe Republican district.

CA 43 Current Incumbent – Baca (D-Rialto)

Population – 706,526

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	27%	14%	4%	51%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	68%	30%	58%
New District	66%	32%
Change	-2%	+2%	+8%

This district remains a safe Democratic district and a majority-Hispanic district. It includes the cities of San Bernardino, Fontana, Colton and Rialto.

This is a majority Hispanic district.

CA 44 Current Incumbent – none

Population – 706,679

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	43%	10%	6%	37%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	50%	49%	40%
New District	56%	42%
Change	+6%	-7%	+16%

This is now a solid Democratic district in northern Riverside County. The district includes Riverside, Moreno Valley, Banning, and Beaumont.

This is a minority-majoirty district.

CA 45 Current Incumbent – Bono Mack (R-Palm Springs)

Population – 707,189

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	51%	4%	2%	40%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	52%	47%	43%
New District	53%	46%
Change	0%	-1%	+9%

The percentages stay the same in CA 45, but the district becomes more urban. Palm Springs, Indio, and Coachella in the east are united with Lake Elsinore, Perris, and Hemet in the west.

I am not quite sure what percentage of the district is new, and I would expect that Representative Bono Mack could eke out a few more terms, but the demographics of the district are on our side, and a Democrat would likely to be favored in an open-seat election.

CA 49 Current Incumbent – Issa (R-Lakeside)

Population – 706,383

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	70%	2%	4%	21%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	45%	53%	38%
New District	39%	59%
Change	-6%	+6%	+1%

This district starts in the north along the southern border of Hemet, takes in Temecula and skirts along the city of San Diego eastern border, encompassing Escondido, Poway and Santee.

This is a very safe Republican seat.

CA 50 Current Incumbent – Bilbray (R-Calisbad) Hunter (R-Vista)

Population – 707,238

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	63%	3%	7%	23%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	51%	47%	44%
New District	54%	44%
Change	+3%	-2%	+10%

Two Republican incumbents in a district where Obama won with over 54%. Ah, fun with redistricting.

The district lies entirely in San Diego County along the Pacific Ocean, Oceanside, Vista, Carlsbad, San Marcos, and comes into the City of San Diego.

CA 51 Current Incumbent – Filner (D-Chula Vista)

Population – 707,057

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	28%	4%	9%	56%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	63%	36%	53%
New District	58%	40%
Change	-5%	+4%	+5%

This is a large district from Chula Vista and the border with Mexico to the border with Arizona and to the border of Riverside and San Bernadino County. This remains a safe Democratic seat.

This is a majority-Hispanic district.

CA 52 Current Incumbent – none

Population – 706,873

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	60%	5%	13%	17%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	45%	54%	38%
New District	56%	43%
Change	+11%	-11%	+18%

This is a Democratic district from North and East San Diego extending to El Cajon. 

CA 53 Current Incumbent – Davis (D-San Diego)

Population – 706,571

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	46%	11%	10%	29%

	Obama	McCain	Kerry
Old District	69%	30%	61%
New District	64%	34%
Change	-5%	+4%	+3%

This Democratic district includes portions of San Diego, Coronado, La Mesa, and Lemon Grove.

This is a majority-minority district.

Nice to see some hard numbers pushing back against the grating beltway CW:

Vulnerable House Democrats who supported the healthcare bill last month reaped big financial rewards. …

Several of these members were last-minute yes votes, which helped push the legislation to passage.

Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D-N.D.) raised more than $140,000 from PACs and fellow members in the final 10 days of the quarter – which was more than one-third of the $400,000 total he raised for the entire quarter.

Rep. Scott Murphy (D-N.Y.) raised more than $100,000 from political committees after deciding to vote yes on the bill, and he raised about $475,000 overall.

Reps. Debbie Halvorson (D-Ill.) and Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz.) weren’t far behind, each raising more than $90,000 from PACs and fellow members of

Congress in the final week-plus of the quarter. Halvorson raised $410,000 total, while Giffords raised nearly $500,000.

And it’s not just individual candidates – the party committees saw a big bump, too. I don’t think healthcare reform is going to be our savior by any stretch – we’re going to have a brutal year pretty much no matter what. But the alternate – not passing anything – would have been vastly worse.

• FL-Sen: The big rumor, all over the Interwebs today (courtesy of Southern Political Report/Insider Advantage’s Matt Towery), is that Charlie Crist has fully resolved to run as an independent for Senate. The announcement will be “sooner rather than later,” and he’s drafting the speech for the announcement. There’s no confirmation from anyone else, though. Crist’s camp has denied they’ve been scrubbing all references to “Republican” from Crist’s websites in preparation for the big switch. Meanwhile, GOP establishment support within Florida for Crist seems to be cratering, as current state House speaker Larry Cretul threw his lot in with Rubio today. John McCain also said today that he can’t support Crist’s independent candidacy. (Wow, that’s really going out on a limb there, Mr. Maverick.)

• AK-Sen: Lisa Murkowski may be one of the least endangered Senate incumbents out there, with no Democrats of note stepping forward to challenge her. Her GOP primary may turn out to require at least a little effort, though, as a challenger of at least something-of-note has stepped forward: former judge Joe Miller, whose only elective experience is losing a Fairbanks-area state House race. Miller is sounding teabaggy themes about the Constitution and socialism, but has endorsements from three state legislators, all from the socially conservative side of the GOP.

• IN-Sen: Hey, big spender! John Hostettler reports raising $37K in the first quarter, spending $27K, and ending with $10K CoH.

• NC-Sen: Cal Cunningham’s fundraising haul for Q1 was a weak $345K, leaving him $478K CoH. That’s still more than Elaine Marshall, who has $181K. Pundits are left wondering if the DSCC (who seem to prefer Cunningham) will intervene on Cunningham’s behalf to get him out of the primary, where polls have shown the former state Senator lagging behind Marshall, who as SoS is known statewide.

• NV-Sen: Sue Lowden would do well to heed the old expression about finding oneself in a hole and stopping digging. After her disastrous comments about bartering chickens to doctors in exchange for surgeries and MRIs, she was given ample opportunity to back down, but she doubled down yesterday, saying no, she was serious, and now her spokesperson is tripling down today, saying, no, she was still serious, and presenting a quote from one doctor who says that, yes, he does accept payment in alfalfa and bathtub form. Meanwhile, over in the other Senate seat, badly-damaged John Ensign is also on the receiving end of a lot of derision after reporting $50 in receipts in Q1. TPM actually tracked Ensign’s one donor down, who shrugged off Ensign’s problems, saying “All men are dogs.”

• UT-Sen: Mitt Romney will be at the Utah Republican convention next month to lend his support to faltering incumbent Bob Bennett. I’m not sure if Romney will be able to vote for Bennett, though, as Utah may not be one of the approximately 14 states in which he has residency.

• WA-Sen: Dino Rossi seems content to pad out his waiting game all the way up to Washington’s June 11 filing deadline (seemingly blissfully unaware that he needs to raise a metric ton of money ASAP if he’s going to run). That’s not sitting well with John Cornyn, who’s amping up the public statements telling Rossi to get his ass in gear.

• CA-Gov: Meg Whitman’s out with an internal poll via McLaughlin, giving her a 53-22 edge over Steve Poizner in the GOP primary. Some of you may also have noticed a Rasmussen poll out today showing the needle zooming back in Jerry Brown’s direction in the general. I’m very puzzled about this one… why is Rasmussen, of all people, putting up better California results for Dems than the Field Poll? I’m wondering if California is intensely blue enough that Rasmussen’s LV model works in Dems’ favor somehow.

• MI-Gov: I suppose it was only a matter of time before someone went after Republican AG Mike Cox over the alleged coverup of a party-gone-very-awry at then-mayor Kwame Kilpatrick’s place in 2002. The ad (a small buy on Lansing-area radio stations) attacking Cox is from Foundation for a Secure and Prosperous America, who, if the name sounds familiar, is the handiwork of Rick Reed, auteur of the Swift Boat Vets ads. Fingers are being pointed at primary rival Rick Snyder, but he says he didn’t have anything to do with it.

• NY-19: This ought to ease the risk of a NY-23 type situation in the 19th: Nan Hayworth, from the county club wing of the GOP and facing some teabagging opposition in the primary, managed to nail down the endorsement of the Putnam County Conservative Party. Of course, exurban Putnam County is only a small minority of the district, so we’ll have to see what happens in the other more populous counties.

• NY-29: Speaking of New York and teabaggers, it looks like Corning mayor Tom Reed  — a moderate who managed to deter bigger GOP names from jumping into the race following Eric Massa’s implosion — is now drawing some teabagging opposition in the GOP primary from small businessman Angelo Campini.

• NY-St. Sen.: It’s kind of sad that I had to debate over whether a New York state Senate majority leader’s office getting raided by the FBI and the state AG’s office even qualifies as newsworthy because it’s so totally expected. At any rate, Pedro Espada, who mere months ago held the linchpin of power in New York, now seems on his way to an ignominious end, as the scandal over Soundview Health Center heats up.

• NY-St. Ass.: This feels more like “Where Are They Now?” than an actual state Assembly story, but Dede Scozzafava, who went in a few short weeks from likely U.S. Representative to historical footnote, has decided that she’s through with the Assembly (having gotten sacked from her deputy leadership position). She’ll be retiring at the end of her term.

• Governors: Here’s a fun conversation piece: CREW has released its list of the 10 worst governors, in terms of corruption, unethical behavior, and general malfeasance. In a surprise to me, Jim Gibbons didn’t top the list. (I’ll give you a hint of who did: he’s thinking of running for President in 2012, and he seems to be made partly of Foghorn Leghorn DNA.) Only two Dems made the cut: David Paterson and Bill Richardson.

Public Policy Polling (4/17-18, New Hampshire voters, no trendlines) (primary numbers):

Paul Hodes (D): 40

Kelly Ayotte (R): 47

Undecided: 13

Paul Hodes (D): 41

Bill Binnie (R): 46

Undecided: 13

Paul Hodes (D): 43

Jim Bender (R): 40

Undecided: 18

Paul Hodes (D): 43

Ovide Lamontagne (R): 38

Undecided: 19

(MoE: ±2.6%)

Kelly Ayotte (R): 43

Bill Binnie (R): 19

Jim Bender (R): 11

Ovide Lamontagne (R): 5

Tom Alciere (R): 1

Undecided: 21

(MoE: ±3.9%)

This is PPP’s first poll of New Hampshire since Judd Gregg retired; they find what most non-Rasmussen pollsters have been finding for the last half a year, which is a high-single-digits lead for ex-AG Kelly Ayotte over Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes. PPP thinks that Barack Obama may be dragging the Dems down in this race, but Obama’s approval in New Hampshire is a tolerable 47/48, pretty consistent with national averages and with New Hampshire’s position near the nation’s midpoint. Instead, some of the problem seems to be with Hodes himself, who’s in deeper negative territory, with 32/39 favorables. (The law-and-order, no-controversial-positions Ayotte fares beter at 34/24.)

They also take a rare look at the state of the GOP primary. R2K had a look at the primary from February, finding a much closer race between Ayotte and conservative insurgent Ovide Lamontagne, which Ayotte was winning 36-27. However, that’s gotten scrambled by the two random rich guys in the race, Bill Binnie and Jim Bender, spending money to introduce themselves, while Lamontagne has continued to languish in obscurity. Lamontagne seems to have been a receptacle for all anti-Ayotte votes, and they’re migrating elsewhere thanks to money (despite the fact that Binnie is pretty moderate and seems to be running to Ayotte’s left); as far as teabagger challenges go, Lamontagne seems to be headed in the Chuck DeVore/Patrick Hughes direction rather than that of Marco Rubio or Rand Paul.