Swing State Project – Page 237 – Campaign and Election News

StephenCLE’s 2010 House Predictions – Part 4

Welcome to Part 4 of my 2010 baseline predictions for the house of representatives. In this section, we’ll head into the Deep South, which I’ve split up into two regions, the deep south Atlantic, consisting of South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida, and the deep south Gulf, which covers Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. Today we’ll cover the south Atlantic, and the south gulf will be covered in part 6.

National Recap so far –

Northeast – Rep +3 (rep gains NH-1, NY-24, NY-29)

Mid-Atlantic – Even (rep gains PA-11, MD-1; dem gains DE-1, PA-6)

Upper South – Rep +5 (rep gains VA-2, VA-5, TN-4, TN-6, TN-8)

The South Atlantic doesn’t look all that interesting, honestly, though by election day that might change. There aren’t any top tier races in Georgia or South Carolina, and thus far, the one hotbed of the region is in the central part of Florida thanks to some vulnerable incumbents. The good news for the Democrats in this region is that most of their seats are centered in urban areas, which might shelter them from the wrath of a rural republican “teabagger” uprising in 2010.

South Carolina-1 – Open/Republican – This district was the site of one of the most intriguing and surprising races of 2008, as Brown barely held on against the openly lesbian democratic challenger, Linda Ketner. That poor performance, combined with an upcoming primary challenger in Carroll Campbell Jr., caused him to bail. With the seat open, Campbell Jr is the favorite on the Republican side, barely, as the field is deep and his fundraising has been poor thus far at 121k. The Democratic side is also very unsettled, with no clear favorite, though it’s unfortunate that Ketner isn’t running again. Ultimately, with the environment being what it is, it’s hard to imagine the Dems picking this up, but it’s not impossible.

District PVI – R+10

Stephen’s Rating – Likely R

Prediction – Strong Rep Hold

South Carolina-2 – Joe Wilson/Republican – This is about as high profile a house race as you can have. Joe Wilson, the famed representative who yelled out that Barack Obama was a liar in front of the whole world, has received a lot of heat, and fame, for his outburst. His shout heard round the world also gave himself, and his Dem opponent Robert Miller, a ton of cash. Wilson currently has 2.3 million in cash on hand, while Miller has 1.7 million. This is going to be a war, and I have a feeling it’s going to be very ugly in nature. This district is conservative, and voted for McCain by 9 points, so I give an edge to Wilson to retain. If the environment wasn’t in the republicans’ favor Wilson would be in dire straits.

District PVI – R+9

Stephen’s Rating – Leans R

Prediction – Moderate Rep Hold

South Carolina-3 – Open/Republican – This is an intensely conservative seat, held currently by Gresham Barrett. As of now, the republican primary is a crowded affair, with state representative Rex Rice, state senators Shane Massey & Jeff Duncan, and businessman Richard Cash all vying for the chance to succeed Barrett. The likely Democratic candidate is Jane Dyer, who is fundraising close with the republican challengers. The problem for her is that this district is one of the most conservative in the nation, so a Dem pickup is extremely unlikely.

District PVI – R+17

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

South Carolina-4 – Bob Inglis/Republican – The big question here is whether or not Bob Inglis will survive a primary challenge. The Dems really should put forth a challenger in case he doesn’t, but so far they don’t have one.

District PVI – R+15

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

South Carolina-5 – John Spratt/Democrat – Spratt has been for a long time an entrenched House incumbent in the 5th, but this year it looks like he might get a fairly strong challenge. The Repubs have coalesced around state senator Mick Mulvaney, who is a freshman in that body. I don’t have any fundraising data on this race, but despite the enthusiasm around Mulvaney, it’s hard to imagine a young-un like him taking out a strong incumbent like Spratt, even in a slightly conservative district.

District PVI – R+7

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Strong Dem Hold

South Carolina-6 – James Clyburn/Democrat – This is the one democratic district in South Carolina, and Clyburn is fairly well entrenched here. It’s also a VRA district, making Republican takeover a very difficult proposition.

District PVI – D+12

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Georgia-1 – Jack Kingston/Republican – This southeastern Georgia district is very conservative, and favored McCain by 25% over Obama. It’s not really on the democratic radar screen for 2010.

District PVI – R+16

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Georgia-2 – Sanford Bishop/Democrat – This district, which comprises much of southwestern Georgia, is a rarity in the south in that it is a swing district. Most southern districts are either intensely democratic in the cities and intensely republican in the country. Bishop is currently heavily favored for re-election, but he is facing a republican challenger in Mike Keown. I shouldn’t think this challenge will amount to much, but seeing as this is the rural south, I can’t completely count out the republican.

District PVI – D+1

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Georgia-3 – Lynn Westmoreland/Republican – This district in west-central Georgia is crazy conservative and so is Westmoreland. A good match really.

District PVI – R+19

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Georgia-4 – Hank Johnson/Democrat – Heading into metro Atlanta now, this district comprises Atlanta’s east, covering most of Dekalb County. Johnson won’t be sweating over re-election as this district is very democratic.

District PVI – D+24

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Georgia-5 – John Lewis/Democrat – This district, which consists of central Atlanta, is probably the safest for Democrats in the entire south outside of South Florida. Lewis is safe.

District PVI – D+26

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Georgia-6 – Tom Price/Republican – The 6th district, which is centered north of the Atlanta metro area, is starting to turn in the Democratic direction, but it has a long way to go before it becomes competitive. Price is safe.

District PVI – R+19

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Georgia-7 – John Linder/Republican – The 7th district, which falls to the northeast and east of the Atlanta area, is also starting to take a democratic turn, but as with the neighboring 6th, it still has a long way to travel before a democrat can look to win here unless we find the next Bobby Bright or Gene Taylor.

District PVI – R+16

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Georgia-8 – Jim Marshall/Democrat – This is perhaps the one district in the state that, on paper, has a decent chance at turning over. This south-central Georgia district is fairly conservative in nature, but Marshall has voted fairly well in line with their political lean, defecting from the party on some key issues. That, and the fact that the Republican side has had some major recruiting woes here is keeping him in good shape. Businesswoman Angela Hicks is the favorite in the republican primary as several state senators the NRCC attempted to recruit have given her their blessing, but the field is deep, and she has not fundraised well at all to this point. Marshall’s fundraising has been fairly lackluster. It’s a tricky race because Marshall only won by 15% in 2008 (Obama got beat 56-43), so this race is almost guaranteed to be closer based on the political environment.

District PVI – R+10

Stephen’s Rating – Leans D

Prediction – Moderate Dem Hold

Georgia-9 – Open/Republican – Hey, here’s an open republican seat! Yay! Only problem is this pine tree covered part of north Georgia is the 4th most republican in the nation, voting 75-23 for McCain. On the bright side, if you like wingnut on wingnut warfare…this is the district for you.

District PVI – R+28

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Georgia-10 – Paul Broun/Republican – There’s actually a nice democratic vote center in the 10th, coming in the form of the college town of Athens. But it’s pretty much an island of blue in a sea of deep, deep red. Not much chance here.

District PVI – R+15

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Georgia-11 – Phil Gingrey/Republican – The 11th district contains much of northwestern Georgia rural country, with Rome as it’s major population center. And unfortunately, its not competitive in the least.

District PVI – R+20

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Georgia-12 – John Barrow/Democrat – This east Georgia district centered upon Augusta was re-drawn following a rare mid-decade redistricting, which stripped Athens out of the district in favor of more rural territory. Barrow survived a tough race in 2006 but romped to a 66-34 win in 2008 while Obama won the district by 9%. The Republicans appeared to have a good challenger here in army veteran and surgeon Wayne Mosley, but his dropping out has really left the NRCC in a hole. Now the primary is likely to be a divided and tough affair between a bunch of Some Guys. That’s not going to get it done against an entrenched incumbent like Barrow.

District PVI – D+1

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Georgia-13 – David Scott/Democrat – This is the newest district in the state, stretching over Atlanta’s western and southern suburbs. It’s fairly democratic in nature, and Scott is well entrenched. Not much chance of losing this one.

District PVI – D+15

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Florida-1 – Jeff Miller/Republican – We now move into Florida, a perennially key state, which begins a stretch of four big, swing states in a row for us. That’s notable, even though this western panhandle-based district isn’t, it’s solidly republican.

District PVI – R+21

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Florida-2 – Allen Boyd/Democrat – This is an odd district. It is a swing district trending quickly rightward, but has a democratic blue dog-ish representative. But instead of a strong republican challenge, it looks like Allen Boyd’s biggest trouble will be getting through a primary challenge from Al Lawson. Boyd has about a 10-1 cash on hand advantage, but if Lawson consolidates the sizeable black vote in the district he’s got a shot. The Republicans’ only chance is if Boyd is defeated in the primary, as their biggest challengers, William Sutherland and Carl Meece, have barely gotten their campaigns off the ground.

District PVI – R+6

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Strong Dem Hold

Florida-3 – Corrine Brown/Democrat – Along with NC-12, PA-12, and NY-28, this district is about as hideous a gerrymander as you’ll see on the national House map, stringing together the most democratic parts of Jacksonville, Gainesville, and Orlando. It’s meant to be a democratic vote sink with it’s purpose hiding behind the VRA. It’s safe for Brown at present, but god does it need to be re-designed in the 2010 redistricting.

District PVI – D+18

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Strong Dem Hold

Florida-4 – Ander Crenshaw/Republican – This north Florida district is very similar to the 1st district, rural, white, and very republican.

District PVI – R+17

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Florida-5 – Ginny Brown-Waite/Republican – Brown-Waite is one of the most popular politicians in the state of Florida, and is widely beloved in her district. The 2008 race was her closest election since her initial win in 2002, but she still won by 23%. It’s doubtful any democrat could take a run at her.

District PVI – R+9

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Florida-6 – Cliff Stearns/Republican – This is another hideously drawn district. Looking at the map it looks as though it is spooning with the neighboring 3rd. As you would expect, it is the yin to the 3rd’s yang, as it is a very republican district. In this environment it would be hard to imagine the Dems picking this one up.

District PVI – R+10

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Florida-7 – John Mica/Republican – This district comprises a lot of Florida’s northeastern coast between Jacksonville and Daytona Beach. Honestly I’m surprised that this district is not overwhelmingly republican, Obama only lost by 7% here in 2008. That being said, Mica won re-election by 24% in 2008, making it very difficult to believe that this seat will be in play this time around.

District PVI – R+7

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Florida-8 – Alan Grayson/Democrat – Finally! After 28 districts of boredom, we reach a competitive district, potentially one of the most competitive in the nation. The 8th is a gerrymandered (yup, what else is new) central Florida district that comprises a good portion of the Orlando metro area. It is a swing district that is trending leftward. Grayson is perhaps the biggest loudmouth in the democratic house caucus, famous for his “don’t get sick, die quickly” rant about republican health care agenda. Much like Joe Wilson last year and Michelle Bachmann in 2008, there’s big a large influx of money into this race, but luckily for Grayson, most of it has been on his side since the Republicans amazingly haven’t been able to find a candidate. Armando Gutierrez was the leading fundraiser on the R side but he dropped out earlier this month, leaving a wide open field paced by state representative Kurt Kelly and businessman Bruce Odonoghue. Florida’s late primary date isn’t going to give the Repubs much time to get behind their eventual candidate, either. There are some that think because of his bullish nature that generic R could beat Grayson and his 1.45 million cash on hand, but I don’t. Not in a city like Orlando that is trending bluer and bluer by the day.

District PVI – R+2

Stephen’s Rating – Leans D

Prediction – Moderate Dem Hold

Florida-9 – Gus Bilirakis/Republican – Another oddly shaped district, this one covers the area north of Tampa/St Petersburg, with Clearwater/Dunedin as it’s main population center. Even though Obama came with 5% of McCain in this pink-colored district, Bilirakis cruised to re-election by 25%. I think he’s in really good shape here.

District PVI – R+6

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Florida-10 – Bill Young/Republican – The longest-serving member of the Republican house caucus, Bill Young has routinely run up big margins in this Pinellas peninsula district (hey, a compact district in Florida, no way!). But with him being somewhat non-committal about running for re-election this cycle, this district has some life to it. The Democrats have also served notice by finding a very strong candidate in state senator Charlie Justice. Having not faced a real campaign in years, Young could struggle against the young and articulate Justice. The problem for Justice is that his fundraising hasn’t been good, only 212k raised thus far, but it does give him the money advantage this cycle over Young. Ultimately I think if Young runs he’ll probably win, but if he retires, the race moves to toss up or possibly even leans dem. For that reason I’ll stay the middle of those two outcomes for now.

District PVI – R+1

Stephen’s Rating – Leans R

Prediction – Moderate Rep Hold

Florida-11 – Kathy Castor/Democrat – Castor’s district is essentially a democratic vote sink in the Tampa/St Petersburg area, and while it’s not hugely democratic to the point where a republican can’t win, there isn’t much in the way of Republican opposition here to make this interesting.

District PVI – D+11

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Florida-12 – Open/Republican – This seat is open because of Adam Putnam running for Florida Agricultural Commissioner, and it’s a potential pickup opportunity for the democrats. This district is pink in color, but took a hard swing to the left in 2008, where McCain edged out Obama 50-49. The democrats also have a very solid candidate in Polk County elections supervisor Lori Edwards. The republicans counter with their own strong candidate, former state representative Dennis Ross. Currently, Ross leads the fundraising game 456k to 176k, so fundraising has been a problem for Edwards. That’s the one thing that gives the Repubs the edge. I have a feeling that this could be a much more hotly contested district than most pundits expect. FWIW, I do remember one poll earlier showing Edwards doing well.

District PVI – R+6

Stephen’s Rating – Leans R

Prediction – Moderate Rep Hold

Florida-13 – Vern Buchanan/Republican – Buchanan just barely held off Christine Jennings in 2006 by less than 400 votes to win an open seat election here. The outcome was disputed, and perhaps voters thought of Jennings as a sore loser, because he crushed her by 18% in the 2008 rematch. It appears that Buchanan has weathered the storm, because his only opposition is Bradenton city councilman James Golden. State representative Keith Fitzgerald is the democrats hoped-for #1 recruit but it appears that he is out.

District PVI – R+6

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Florida-14 – Connie Mack/Republican – This southwest Florida district, centered on Fort Myers, is a very conservative part of south Florida. Mack should be fine here.

District PVI – R+11

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Florida-15 – Bill Posey/Republican – Posey won the 15th district’s seat in a 2008 open seat race, winning by 12% over democratic candidate Stephen Blythe. That’s a big overperformance from the top of the ticket, where McCain struggled and barely beat Obama 51-48. Given this, the democrats would need a really strong candidate to have a shot, and honestly, they’ve had a bit of a recruiting failure here. Cape Canaveral councilwoman Shannon Roberts is all they’ve got.

District PVI – R+6

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Florida-16 – Tom Rooney/Republican – This seat is interesting because it has turned over the last two election cycles on account of representatives not being able to keep their pants on. So far, Rooney hasn’t had that problem, but it’ll be interesting to see how he fares against a non-scandalized combatant. The democrats were hoping for Dave Aronberg to run for this seat, but he decided to run for Attorney General instead, so Chris Craft is the nominee. Rooney so far has a huge advantage in fundraising, by a count of 733k to 102k. I’m not optimistic that this district is going to turn over.

District PVI – R+5

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Florida-17 – Open/Democrat – This seat is open as Kendrick Meek is running for the Senate. The 17th, which centers on downtown Miami, is the most Democratic district in Florida and one of the most liberal in the nation. The winner of the Dem primary will win the seat easily.

District PVI – D+34

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Florida-18 – Ileana Ros-Lehtinen/Republican – This district is the southernmost in the continental United States, stretching from south Miami to Key West. Ileana is one of three Cuban American republicans in south Florida, and she is very well entrenched, to the point where she defeated Annette Taddeo by 15% in 2008 while Obama was busy pulling a 51-48 upset over McCain here. Given that and the fact that she is generally well liked by most, I really don’t see her going down in 2010.

District PVI – R+3

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Florida-19 – Open/Democrat – There is a special election for this seat being held on April 13 because of Robert Wexler’s departure. Democrat Ted Deutsch is heavily favored to win over Republican Edward Lynch. I have to figure that there won’t be much activity in this seat in November unless somehow the Republican were to pull an upset, then the Dems would be chomping at the bit to get it back.

District PVI – D+15

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Florida-20Debbie Wasserman-Schulz/Democrat – This seat is very democratic in nature, and DWS is a very popular incumbent who went unopposed in 2008. Nothing to see here.

District PVI – D+13

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Florida-21Mario Diaz-Balart/Republican – I know that Diaz-Balart isn’t technically the incumbent here, his brother is, but with the recent seat switch in the works and Mario’s incumbency in the 25th, he might as well be. This is a once republican district turned into more of a swing-ish area, as McCain held on for a 51-49 win over Obama in 2008, but with only the relatively unknown William Sanchez in the race for the democrats, a pickup is extremely unlikely.

District PVI – R+5

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Florida-22 – Ron Klein/Democrat – This district, which is drawn as a republican vote sink in Palm Beach and Broward counties, was clearly drawn in the hopes of squeezing a republican representative out of a democratic zone. Ron Klein, the democratic incumbent, took out Allen West 54-45 in 2008, but West is seeking a rematch under a better political environment this time. He only underperformed McCain by a few points (Obama won 52-47) and he’s fundraising well at 1.22 million to Klein’s 1.4 million, so this is going to be a huge battleground. Everybody talks about FL-8 and Grayson and maybe FL-24 and Kosmas, but honestly, I think this race is flying way under the radar, and is actually the Repubs’ best chance at a pickup in the Sunshine State. It helps to actually have a candidate.

District PVI – D+1

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Weak Dem Hold

Florida-23 – Alcee Hastings/Democrat – This is the remainder of Palm Beach and other surrounding counties not taken in by FL-22. In other words, it’s hugely democratic. Nothing for Hastings to worry about.

District PVI – D+28

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Florida-24 – Suzanne Kosmas/Democrat – The 24th is a district centered around Daytona Beach, and should be a big republican target. But again, just like in the 8th and several other districts in the south with vulnerable democrats, they’ve had a very hard time on the recruiting front. In this case they have a divisive primary coming as well. Winter Park commissioner Karen Dieble and state representative Sandy Hood are the leaders among a very crowded primary field. Making things tougher on the Repubs is that Kosmas is on a fundraising tear, having received 1.1 million thus far. Unless one of the challengers can win and consolidate support and fundraising dollars quickly following Florida’s late primary date, I think Kosmas is in great shape for a retention.

District PVI – R+4

Stephen’s Rating – Leans D

Prediction – Moderate Dem Hold

Florida-25 – Open/Republican – Now this is an open seat! Mario Diaz-Balart’s announcement that he is moving over to the 21st has put this once republican, now more swing-ish seat into play. McCain edged Obama by 1% in the presidential vote in 2008, meaning that anything is possible. So far, it appears that state representative David Rivera and state senate majority leader Alex Diaz de la Portilla are the leading republican candidates. On the democratic side, state representative Luis Rivera is in, though most are waiting on two other possibilities, one being 2008 candidate Joe Garcia, who held Diaz-Balart to a 6% win in 2008, and the other being former Miami mayor Manny Diaz. Either one of them would be very strong, and would move this seat into the toss up category. With the primaries falling late in Florida, a lot will depend on who gets in and who triumphs in the parties’ respective primaries. One thing I do know however, is that CQ and Cook are both out of their minds keeping this one at Safe R. Seriously, what are they thinking?

District PVI – R+5

Stephen’s Rating – Leans R

Prediction – Moderate Rep Hold

Regional Recap – Well, not much of a recap here, because unlike the first three regions, right now, I don’t see any seats turning over on either side. So the combined total remains Republican +8 through four regions.

Next stop…The Eastern Great Lakes

Loading ...

IN-Sen, IN-08: Sources Say Ellsworth Will Run for Senate, Van Haaften for House

From the Evansville Courier & Press:

U.S. Rep. Brad Ellsworth will run for Senate, and state Rep. Trent Van Haaften will seek his seat in Congress, multiple Democratic sources said Thursday morning. […]

The Indiana Democratic Party’s 32-member central committee will determine Bayh’s replacement. Anthony Long, the party’s 8th Congressional District chairman, said he expected a Ellsworth’s decision this morning. No official announcement has been made.

Meanwhile, Butch Morgan, the 2nd District chairman who also helms the St. Joseph’s County Democratic Party, said bumping Ellsworth and Van Haaften up is the scenario he envisions.

Other Democratic sources close to Ellsworth and Van Haaften would not speak on the record, but confirmed that the two are working out the logistics of the situation now.

Howey Politics Indiana, the crew that broke the story about Dan Coats’ re-entry into the political arena, is also reporting the same thing — with an announcement by Ellsworth apparently set to come down sometime later today.

There’s no question that Ellsworth out-classes his Republican opposition in this race. Dan Coats has been proven to be a pretty flawed candidate — one of the very few GOP candidates that the DSCC has actually been able to land serious and solid hits against all cycle. It remains to be seen, however, whether those flaws will prove to be fatal in a year like this.

As for Van Haaften, he seems to be one of the more solid choices short of Evansville Mayor Jon Weinzapfel, who has already turned this race down. His bio is available here.

UPDATE: Rasmussen is quick to show up on the scene with a bucket of cold water:

IN-Sen (2/16-17, likely voters):

Brad Ellsworth (D): 32

Dan Coats (R): 46

Some other: 7

Not sure: 15

Brad Ellsworth (D): 27

John Hostettler (R): 46

Some other: 7

Not sure: 19

Brad Ellsworth (D): 30

Marlin Stutzman (R): 40

Some other: 9

Not sure: 21

Baron Hill (D): 32

Dan Coats (R): 48

Some other: 6

Not sure: 14

Baron Hill (D): 31

John Hostettler (R): 49

Some other: 5

Not sure: 15

Baron Hill (D): 33

Marlin Stutzman (R): 41

Some other: 7

Not sure: 19

(MoE: ±4.5%)

LATER UPDATE: In what’s probably a sign of increasing coalescence around Ellsworth, state Senate minority leader Vi Simpson, who’d been mentioned somewhere around #4 on the totem pole of potential replacements (behind Ellsworth, Baron Hill, and Jonathan Weinzapfel), has pulled her name from consideration.

RaceTracker Wiki: IN-Sen | IN-08

VT-Gov: New R2K Poll Points to a Tossup

Research 2000 for WCAX-TV (2/14-16, likely voters, no trend lines):

Deb Markowitz (D): 43

Brian Dubie (R): 41

Undecided: 16

Doug Racine (D): 38

Brian Dubie (R): 43

Undecided: 19

Peter Shumlin (D): 35

Brian Dubie (R): 45

Undecided: 20

Matt Dunne (D): 36

Brian Dubie (R): 44

Undecided: 20

Susan Bartlett (D): 30

Brian Dubie (R): 48

Undecided: 22

(MoE: ±5%)

On the surface, those are pretty encouraging numbers for Republican Brian Dubie, but bear in mind that a disproportionate amount of undecided voters in every one of the above match-ups come from the Democratic column. Dubie, the current Lt. Governor, is the strongest nominee that the GOP could cough up here, but there’s no doubt that he’s riding high on superior name recognition right now.

And, in case you need a scorecard:

Deb Markowitz: SoS (1999-Present)

Doug Racine: Lt. Governor (1997-2003), ’02 Gubernatorial nominee, state Senator (2007-Present)

Peter Shumlin: State Senator (1993-2003, 2007-Present), ’02 Lt-Gov nominee

Matt Dunne: State Representative (1993-1999), state Senator (2003-2007), ’06 Lt-Gov nominee

Susan Bartlett: State Senator (1993-Present)

(Hat-tip: Darth Jeff)

Possible replacement candidates for Hill and Ellsworth

Most speculation has indicated that both Brad Ellsworth and Baron Hill are the current frontrunners to take Evan Bayh’s place. I have compiled a list of the bench we have in both districts. I am from the ninth and know much more about it than I do about the eighth. If I left off any potential candidates please let me know.

8th

Of course the best candidate, Jon Weinzapfel, has already ruled the bid out. That really sucks, because he would sail through the election. However I suppose he wants to be Governor. Like I previously stated I don’t know a whole lot about the 8th but I did my best.

*Bob Deig- State senator from Evansville since 2006. He has a strong pro guns and life voting record similar to that of Ellsworth’s,

*Lindel Hume- He is a state senator from Princeton. He has served in the state senate since 1982 and was a member of the state house from 1974 until his election to the senate.

* Dale Grubb – He is a state representative that has served since 1988 and is currently Democratic Caucus Chair.

*Dennis Avery- He is a state rep from Evansville who has served since 1974.

*Trent Van Haaften- He is a state rep from Evansville, who is also a well respected lawyer that could possibly self finance.

* Anne Slaughter Andrew, Ambassador to Costa Rica, and wife of former the former DNC chair.

9th

The 9th is one that will probably be gerrymandered to death after the census, so this is more than likely Hill’s last term. So if we lose his district it is not the end of the world. Now as the district stands it is my view that neither Hill or Sodrel have ever been liked by the voters, so having a fresh democrat to take on Sodrel wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world.

*Doug England- Mayor of New Albany who I think would have the ability to self finance.

*Vi Simpson- She is the current Minority leader of the state senate from Bloomington. She is currently sitting on about $250,000. She is a known liberal, but she could still win.

*Mark Kruzman- He is the current mayor of Bloomington, and former state house majority leader.

*Paul Young- State Senator who was briefly a candidate for Governor last year, although he is up for re-election and might not want to risk it.

*Paul Robertson- The State house majority whip who has served in the house since 1978. He is an old teacher of mine. He is well loved in Harrison County, by both democrats and republicans.

*Theodore “Buck” Mathis- Well this one is me being kinda stupid, but I will put it anyway. Buck is the Harrison county commissioner who is about as good ol’ boy democrat as they come. He always wears overalls, has a large beard and drives a 30 year old truck. He is a farmer, and EVERYONE in Harrison, Crawford, and Floyd County knows who he is. The down side to a Buck candidacy is that he would not be able to self finance, and he probably doesn’t own a suite, and I am 100% serious on that one.

*Connie Sipes- State Senator from New Albany, who is retiring this year anyways. She is a former high school principal, and she is very popular in Floyd County.

*Gordan Ingle- He is a Corydon Indiana attorney who is loaded and well connected. If you want someone to self finance then he is your guy.

*John Mellencamp- This is just a pipe dream I thought up, but Mellencamp is an Indiana legend who is still living in Indiana. You can see him at IU games all of the time. I believe he owns property both in Seymour and Bloomington. There is NO WAY Mellencamp would lose, although there is also probably no way he would run either.

I will try to add more names if I think of them, and if you want to give me some ideas as well it would be great. I know my list in the eighth is especially weak.

I am not sure which district would be easier to defend, although neither will be a cake walk I promise you. What district do you think we have a better shot at?

Update

As GOPVOTER has pointed out, Hill has some non credible primary opposition. If Hill did run then I think someone would be able to run a write in campaign for the nomination.

Loading ...

We have a live body in KS-GOV

I got an e-mail from my former collegues at the KSDP today. Tom Holland (KS-St.Sen-03) is announcing for Gov. (Full Disclosure: I did work for his field campaign, as well as many others in 2008). Tom took down a very conservative Republican incumbent in a Republican district in a year when we broke even in the state senate (unless you count a successful primary of a conservadem in KS-05). Tom works hard on the campaign trail and is a bare-knuckles campaigner.

I got the following e-mail this morning:

Hey everyone, State Senator Tom Holland is going to be announcing his campaign for Governor tomorrow!

To establish momentum it’s important that Tom Holland has a big crowd at his announcement.

So, take a late lunch break and show that Kansans aren’t willing to simply give this election to Sam Brownback and his radical allies.

February, 17th, 2010 @ 1:00PM

Lowman Elementary School

1101 Southwest Garfield Avenue

Topeka, KS 66604-1349

Remarks will be delivered at 11th and Garfield b/t the school and the Shawnee Public Library parking lot.

Please pass the word to your friends, colleagues, interns, etc. Thanks, see you there!

Kenny Johnston

Executive Director

Kansas Democratic Party

www.kansasdems.org

785.234.0425 x 700

Rasmussen Reports, You Decide, Vol. 6

Awww, yeah… Scotty Ras is rollin’ West Coast-style. Laiiiiiiid-back…

CA-Sen (2/11, likely voters, 1/14 in parens):

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 46 (46)

Carly Fiorina (R): 42 (43)

Some other: 7 (3)

Not sure: 5 (8)

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 45 (46)

Tom Campbell (R): 41 (42)

Some other: 4 (3)

Not sure: 10 (9)

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 47 (46)

Chuck DeVore (R): 42 (40)

Some other: 6 (4)

Not sure: 5 (10)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

CA-Gov (2/15, likely voters, 1/19 in parens):

Jerry Brown (D): 43 (43)

Meg Whitman (R): 43 (39)

Some other: 6 (7)

Not sure: 8 (11)

Jerry Brown (D): 46 (45)

Steve Poizner (R): 34 (35)

Some other: 7 (9)

Not sure: 13 (11)

Dianne Feinstein (D): 45 (43)

Meg Whitman (R): 43 (42)

Some other: 2 (6)

Not sure: 9 (9)

Dianne Feinstein (D): 48 (43)

Steve Poizner (R): 36 (39)

Some other: 5 (8)

Not sure: 11 (10)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

WA-Sen (2/11, likely voters):

Patty Murray (D-inc): 46

Dino Rossi (R): 48

Some other: 1

Not sure: 5

Patty Murray (D-inc): 50

Don Benton (R): 38

Some other: 3

Not sure: 9

Patty Murray (D-inc): 49

Clint Didier (R): 34

Some other: 4

Not sure: 13

Patty Murray (D-inc): 48

Chris Widener (R): 33

Some other: 5

Not sure: 14

(MoE: ±4.5%)

OR-Sen (2/16, likely voters):

Ron Wyden (D): 49

Jim Huffman (R): 35

Some other: 7

Not sure: 9

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Each of these polls requires a little clarification. First, Dianne Feinstein announced today that, no, she isn’t running for Governor. (Maybe seeing her name polled over and over again by Rasmussen compelled her to act.) In Washington, Dino Rossi, who lost the 2004 and 2008 gubernatorial races and still has the fervent support of many tinfoil hat wearers who think he wuz robbed, has taken no steps toward becoming a candidate (although the GOP seems to be eager to hang their hats on the very small hook offered by his “Never say never” comment). The three GOPers in the race are state Senator Don Benton (who seems well-known as far as state Senators go, though kind of old news today — he lost WA-03 to Brian Baird when it was open in 1998), former NFL player and businessman Clint Didier, and Chris Widener, a Seattle motivational speaker who recently just patched up relations with his ailing dad and found love with Jennifer Aniston. (Oh, wait… that’s the movie I just saw on the airplane.)

In Oregon, today is probably the first day anyone has heard anything of Jim Huffman, who’s rumored to be interested in taking on Ron Wyden although he hasn’t filed yet. He’s a former dean (and still professor) at Lewis & Clark Law School; Blue Oregon has some nice background on his connections to the anti-tax and property rights crowds. Bear in mind that both Washington and Oregon are very polarized states, where a ham sandwich — nay, a pimento loaf sandwich with spoiled mayonnaise — is guaranteed 40% just for showing up with an “R” next to its name, so the numbers for the miscellaneous cast of characters in WA-Sen and OR-Sen should come as no surprise. (It’s the getting to 50%, or even 45% usually, that’s the problem for these states’ GOPers.)

SSP Daily Digest: 2/17

• AZ-Sen: Ex-Rep. and FreedomWorks honcho Dick Armey decided not to endorse in the Arizona Senate GOP primary, which may be good news! for John McCain, seeing as how Armey (currently trying to manage the herd of cats that are the teabaggers) lines up stylistically more with Hayworth. Armey apparently doesn’t think much of Hayworth at a personal level, though, as he followed up with a postscript referring to Hayworth’s “fairly short, undistinguished congressional career.” McCain did bag a few more endorsements from two guys who served with Hayworth in the House in the 90s: Jim Kolbe and Matt Salmon. McCain himself is off campaigning in support of Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire today, making a little clearer where the ideological fault lines lie in that primary.

• IL-Sen: The Alexi Giannoulias camp has released another internal poll from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, which has the Democratic state treasurer leading Republican Rep. Mark Kirk, 49-45. That margin is very consistent with GQR’s last couple polls prior to the primary, which would suggest that Giannoulias weathered the nasty primary all right (although, of course, it doesn’t jibe with how Rasmussen sees the race; they most recently gave Kirk a 46-40 lead).

• KY-Sen: Another internal poll, this one from Lt. Governor Dan Mongiardo, by way of Garin Hart Yang. It gives Mongo a mondo edge over AG Jack Conway in the Democratic Senate primary, 43-25. No numbers are given for the general election, though.

• NC-Sen (pdf): PPP’s release for their newest NC-Sen poll is titled “Same Old Story in Senate race,” and that pretty much sums it up. Richard Burr is still sitting on mediocre approvals and high unknowns (35/35), but thanks to the national environment and second-tier Democratic challengers, he’s still looking to survive in November. He leads SoS Elaine Marshall 43-33, ex-state Sen. Cal Cunningham 44-32, and attorney Kenneth Lewis 44-31. “Generic Democrat” loses to Burr 42-35 (which was 45-36 a month ago).

• AK-Gov: Here’s a bit of a surprise out of Alaska, where appointed Gov. Sean Parnell is somewhat lagging his most prominent GOP primary opponent, former state House speaker Ralph Samuels, on the fundraising front. Parnell still brought in a little more last year ($215K to Samuels’ $179K) but Samuels raised all of his money only in December, with a lot of Samuels’ money coming from in-state big-money real estate and mining interests. Former state House minority leader Ethan Berkowitz leads fundraising efforts in the three-candidate Democratic field.

• CA-Gov: I don’t know how many times Dianne Feinstein has said that she isn’t running for Governor, but she said it again yesterday. This time it seems to be truly official and she seems to be getting it to stick.

• IL-Gov: State Sen. Kirk Dillard seems to have closed the gap in the Illinois GOP primary, with the count of absentee and provisional ballots, but it’s not clear whether it’ll be enough to turn it around, or even enough to merit a recount. Dillard says he cut Bill Brady’s 420-vote margin “in half,” but he’d previously said he wouldn’t look into a recount unless he was within 100 votes. (You do the math.) There’s no recount required by law in Illinois regardless of the margin, so it’s up to Dillard.

• KS-Gov: State Sen. Tom Holland confirmed that he’s in the Kansas gubernatorial race, filling a glaring hole that has bedeviled Kansas Democrats for a year. He’ll still be a long shot against retiring Sen. Sam Brownback, but Holland has proven resilient in beating Republicans in the rural/exurban turf between Kansas City and Lawrence.

• NV-Gov: The Nevada Education Association (the teacher’s union) commissioned a poll, by Grove Insight, that focused mostly on policy questions but also asked about the gubernatorial race. In line with other pollsters, they find Democratic Clark Co. Commissioner Rory Reid trailing Republican former AG Brian Sandoval 44-35, but whomping Republican incumbent Gov. Jim Gibbons 49-33. Time for the Dems to start running pro-Gibbons ads?

• NY-Gov: This is way too meta, where a non-story becomes a story simply by virtue of its non-story-ness. Nevertheless, that promised scandal that was about to erupt about David Paterson has turned out to be pretty much a non-issue: it concerns his advisor (or body man, really) David Johnson, who it turns out has a nasty-sounding rap sheet from his distant past.

• RI-Gov: There’s a whole new centrist party in Rhode Island, the Moderate Party. And despite the fact that there’s already a prominent centrist independent running in the governor’s race (Lincoln Chafee), somehow the two aren’t getting together. Instead, the Moderate Party just announced it’s running its own centrist independent, party founder Kenneth Block. (Weirdly, he’s running instead of former US Attorney Robert Corrente, who’s becoming the new party chair in Block’s absence. Corrente might have the name rec to actually make an impression in the race.) If centrist state treasurer Frank Caprio winds up the Dem nominee, I have no idea how the votes will split — we’ll just have a whole buncha moderates trying to out-moderate each other.

• TX-Gov: Kay Bailey Hutchison has gotten the lion’s share of the establishment endorsements in the GOP gubernatorial primary in Texas, but Rick Perry landed a big name: former Gov. Bill Clements, who in 1978 was the first Republican elected governor since Reconstruction.

• AR-03: DeLay to run for the House again! Don’t worry, though, it sounds like The Hammer is sticking with Dancing with the Stars. Instead, it’s Gunner DeLay, a Republican former state Senator for Ft. Smith (which apparently puts him at a geographical disadvantage, as the district’s center of gravity is around Bentonville and Fayetteville). DeLay lost the 2006 AG race to Dem Dustin McDaniel, and lost the 2001 GOP primary in the AR-03 special election to now-Rep. John Boozman, finishing second.

• CA-33: As expected, term-limited state Assembly speaker Karen Bass just announced her candidacy to replace retiring Rep. Diane Watson in the dark-blue 33rd. She also secured Watson’s endorsement; between that and Bass’s prompt entry, the real question is whether anyone else even bothers contesting the race.

• NH-02: Maybe there’ll be two Basses in the next Congress? Republican ex-Rep. Charlie Bass made it official today, shedding the exploratory label and kicking off his campaign. Most people had been treating him as a candidate already, but he’d included some odd hedges when he announced his exploratory fund (saying it was just a place to stash old contributions) that seemed to leave him an out. With a recent UNH poll giving him the lead in the open seat race to reclaim his seat, he seems to feel confident enough to pull the trigger.

• NY-19: Ophthalmologist Nan Hayworth got a promotion in the NRCC’s Young Guns framework, moving up to the middle tier of “Contender.” However, the interesting story (buried at the bottom of the article) is that Hayworth, whose money seemed to drive Assemblyman Greg Ball out of the GOP primary, is getting a different more-conservative challenger: former Tuxedo Park mayor David McFadden, who’ll officially announce his candidacy on the 27th. Wall Street guy Neil DiCarlo is also already in the race, and Orange Co. GOP chair William DeProspo, who’s had some withering public statements about Hayworth’s qualifications, now is exploring the race as well. Cat fud, anyone?

• OH-02: Despite his celeb-reality status, former Apprentice contestant Surya Yalamanchili seems to be getting the local Democratic establishment to take him seriously. He just got the endorsement of the last two Democrats to lose close elections in this seat (which is deep-red, although Jean Schmidt’s continuing presence here makes it competitive): Vic Wulsin and Paul Hackett. He also got the endorsement of Cincinnati mayor Mark Mallory a few weeks ago. Looks like David Krikorian’s path to the nomination isn’t so certain anymore.

• PA-04: After people were starting to wonder what was with all the foot-dragging, former US Attorney (and, in that position, loyal Bushie) Mary Beth Buchanan officially entered the race for the GOP to go against Democratic Rep. Jason Altmire. She’d been a rumored candidate since October.

• PA-12: As was almost universally expected, it was decided to hold the special election to replace Rep. John Murtha on May 18, the same day as the primaries. Ed Rendell’s office justified this by saying it would cost an extra $600K to have it any other day, but this also bolsters Dem hopes here by having it on the same day as the hotly-contested Dem Senate and Governor primaries (and the barely-contested GOP primaries).

• RI-01: Two big names decided not to get into the Democratic field in the 1st (which already contains Providence mayor David Cicciline): most significantly, Lt. Governor Elizabeth Roberts, who says she’ll run for re-election instead. Secretary of State Ralph Mollis, who’d publicly considered a run, confirmed he won’t run either.

• SC-03: The Club for Growth weighed in in the GOP open seat primary in the R+17 3rd, where the choices are basically wingnut or super-wingnut. Apparently, state Rep. Jeff Duncan is the super-wingnut, as he got the endorsement over fellow state Rep. Rex Rice (who has Mike Huckabee’s endorsement, but is out because he apparently voted for a cigarette tax once).

• VA-05: How many teabaggers can they fit into the phone booth that is the GOP field in the 5th? Contractor Scott Schultz joined the quest to take on Rep. Tom Perriello, making him the 8th GOPer in the race.

• Election results: Democrats lost two legislative special elections last night, although neither one was on particularly favorable turf. While it was a hold for the Republicans rather than a GOP pickup (Dems still have a 14-10 Senate edge), the margin in New Hampshire’s SD-16 (a traditionally Republican area located in part of Manchester and its suburbs) may still leave NH Dems nervous. State Rep. David Boutin defeated Democratic state Rep. Jeff Goley 58-42. In Alabama’s HD-40, though, Republicans picked up a Dem-held open seat (in rural NE Alabama, which has been dark-red at the presidential level and blue at the state level for a long time but where the red is starting to trickle down downballot). Funeral home owner K.L. Brown defeated teacher Ricky Whaley 56-42. Dems still control the Alabama House (for now), 60-45.

IN-Sen: Ellsworth Sounds Likely, Weinzapfel Out

With Tamyra d’Ippolito’s literal 15 minutes of fame having lasted from about 9 to 9:15 yesterday morning, the question now turns to the vacant Senate slot and which Democrat might get selected by the state party to run in Evan Bayh’s stead. Rep. Brad Ellsworth is sounding very interested (pointing to helping more people by being one out of 100 rather than 435 — oh, Brad… so much to learn about how the Senate functions). He says he’ll make a decision about whether to seek the nod within the next week.

Evansville mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel quickly also appeared on everyone’s short list, but he almost as quickly removed his name from consideration. He also is uninterested in running in IN-08, in case Ellsworth’s attempt at a promotion opens up that seat. (Maybe we need Rahm Emanuel to call him up and ask him if he’s tired of being fucking mayor yet?) Weinzapfel’s interest in a 2012 gubernatorial bid is well-known, so it looks like he’s keeping his eyes on that prize — although if Bayh intends on a gubernatorial comeback, that could certainly interfere with Weinzapfel’s plans. (Hoosierdem has some other lesser names in his diary of other possible contenders who’ve said no.)

So, it looks like the party will be choosing between Ellsworth or fellow Rep. Baron Hill. Campaign Diaries does a side-by-side comparison of their voting records (and those of the other House Dems in the state), finding that both the Blue Dogs’ voting records leave a lot to be desired, although Hill (with votes for health care reform and against the FISA amendments) is somewhat better. A somewhat more progressive option that Taniel points to may be state Senate minority leader Vi Simpson, although it’s questionable how competitive she’d be in the general. One other name floating out there, that wouldn’t open up a competitive House seat, is businesswoman Bren Simon (although it’s unclear where she’d fall ideologically). Her late husband’s estate includes 300 shopping malls and the Indiana Pacers.

Whatever else you might think of Evan Bayh’s douchiness, you do have to give some credit for well-executed timing on his retirement announcement (I don’t know if he actually planned it that way or if he just melted down at precisely the right moment, but either way…). Republicans are fuming both at the national and state level, and John Cornyn is demanding that the filing deadline be extended. Wait, why would Cornyn want that deadline to be extended? That means he wants someone else to get in the race (a certain Mike Pence, perhaps)… does that mean he’s not confident in Dan Coats’ ability to prevail in November?

RaceTracker Wiki: IN-Sen

OH-Sen, OH-13: Ganley Switches to House Race

This is a weird bit of news, and one that’s bad news for the Democrats on two different fronts:

Wealthy car dealer Tom Ganley (R) is dropping out of the open-seat Ohio Senate race and will challenge Rep. Betty Sutton (D) in the 13th district instead, according to a source familiar with the decision.

The Ganley switch is a coup for Republicans because it gives former Rep. Rob Portman a clear path to the GOP Senate nomination and could put another Democratic-held House seat into play. A recent internal GOP poll showed Ganley leading Sutton by 3 points.

Ganley, as you might recall, was running in the GOP Senate primary against Rob Portman, to little avail. Ganley was polling in the single digits against Portman, and while he’d been reaching out to the local teabaggers in order to find a foothold, hadn’t seemed to pique any interest there. Still, Portman can now conserve all of his already-abundant cash for the general, while the Democrats continue to slug it out in their primary.

The 13th is certainly not what you’d think of as a typical Republican target; the blue-collar Akron-based district (held by Sherrod Brown prior to Betty Sutton) is D+5 and was won by Barack Obama by 15 points. That’s about the outer limit on what Republicans could hope to pick up, even under the most favorable of circumstances (and even then, probably only with a moderate, not with an aspiring teabagger). Ganley’s one ace in the hole that puts this race on the map is money: he can bring over the $1.3 million in his Senate account to the House race, which dwarfs Sutton’s $120K. However, it’s worth noting, that’s all his money (he gave himself $1.6 million during his Senate campaign and burned through some of that to run TV ads), so he might not be inclined to spend all of it.

If Ganley were to somehow win, that also raises the question of redistricting: with Ohio scheduled to lose at least one seat and maybe two, if this seat (already one of the most depopulated in the state) were occupied by a freshman, it’d probably be the first on the chopping block. Maybe not the best investment for Ganley.

RaceTracker Wiki: OH-Sen | OH-13

How Much More Pain?

When we began the cycle, SSP rated just four Dem-held Senate seats as potentially competitive, and none worse than “Lean D.” (And when Arlen Specter switched parties, his race started over at Likely D.) Now, we have ten blue seats up on the big board, with at least eight in serious jeopardy and only one (CT) trending our way.

The GOP has done a tremendous job expanding the playing field, though of course they’ve also benefitted from some retirements which they can’t exactly take responsibility for – though if they want credit for Evan Bayh being a total d-bag, I’m happy to give it to them. But my real question is, can they expand the playing field even further? Sadly, I think it’s possible. Let’s take a look at the races which SSP currently has slotted in our “Races to Watch” category:

Hawaii: This seat has been on the small chance that outgoing Republican Gov. Linda Lingle could challenge octogenarian Dan Inouye. She hasn’t taken any steps toward making the race, but she hasn’t ruled it out, either. Like most incumbent governors, though, Lingle is not as popular these days as she once was – a recent Mason-Dixon poll pegged her with 38-31 favorables. (An R2K survey from June had her at 51-43, down slightly from 53-41 in Dec. 2008.) Still, Lingle would make a strong challenger to Inouye, and could even inspire him to step down. Lingle is only 56, though, and may be waiting until 2012, when Hawaii’s other 85-year-old senator, Dan Akaka, may retire. But native son Barack Obama will be on the ballot that year, and the wind is at the GOP’s back now.

New York (B): Kirsten Gillibrand had been on the list because of the (now very unlikely) possibility that former Gov. George Pataki could challenge her. Pataki seems to prefer deluding himself into a presidential run, but even if the great Hungarian-American hope won’t make a go of it for the GOP, I’m feeling pretty mistrustful these days. Gillibrand is the opposite of Martha Coakley – she works her ass off. But could a potentially damaging primary against Harold Ford give some zillionaire Republican opening? With New York’s extremely late primary date, I wouldn’t want to rule it out. Still, unless Pataki has a change of heart, the GOP doesn’t even have a second-tier candidate here.

Washington: Patty Murray has been blessed by the lack of a strong challenger so far, though the GOP did recently get an upgrade here in the form of state Sen. Don Benton. As we noted in our recent rating change on this race, however, two much heavier-weight contenders may be reconsidering their earlier decisions not to get involved: Rep. Dave Reichert and two-time gubernatorial candidate Dino Rossi. Neither seem likely to make a move, but if either jumps in, it’s showtime.

Wisconsin: Former Gov. Tommy Thompson has been playing footsie here for some time now, but that’s not the only reason this seat is on our watch list. The quirky Russ Feingold has the potential to make this race a lot more interesting than we’d like. Though he won by twelve points in 2004, in 1998 (while observing some self-inflicted spending limits), Feingold eked out just a two-point win in what was otherwise a good Dem year. Wisconsin is a lot less blue than New York, and even a fairly anonymous GOPer could cause trouble here. It’s hard to get a read on Feingold’s favorables these days, since polling is scarce – they’re ugh if you want to believe Rasmussen, and pretty good if you don’t. Still, this race makes me nervous, especially since the state went for John Kerry by just four tenths of a percentage point – and Al Gore by just two tenths.

Fortunately, the rest of the list looks a lot better. Unfortunately, it’s really short:

Maryland: Thankfully, the recent rumors that Barbara Mikulski might retire turned out to bogus. And just as thankfully, the GOP has no one to tap here (which is why they are pinning their hopes on retread Bob Ehrlich in the gubernatorial race). Dems will have lots of strong candidates ready to go whenever Mikulski decides to call it quits.

New York (A): If Chuck Schumer winds up in anything remotely resembling a competitive race, just start drinking now.

Oregon: The Republicans mercifully have no bench here. Rep. Greg Walden, the state lone GOP House member, already said no to a race for the open governor’s mansion. I can’t imagine John Cornyn could get him into a race against Ron Wyden, and I don’t want to.

Vermont: Outgoing GOP Gov. Jim Douglas could theoretically force something of a contest with Pat Leahy. But a guy who doesn’t want to run for re-election as governor probably isn’t any more interested in taking on an incumbent in an otherwise very blue state – we hope.

Just to be sure, I’m not saying I think it’s likely the GOP can really expand the playing field – just that it’s possible. Already, though, the Republicans have done something pretty impressive: They’ve put themselves in a position where it’s even possible to imagine they could retake control of the Senate this fall. Given that Democrats held 60 seats for most of 2009 and still hold 59 today (as well as having the Vice Presidential buffer), that’s a chilling thought.

So this is as good a time as any to ask: How many Senate seats do you think the GOP will pick up in November?

Loading ...