Swing State Project

This may be a long time coming but considering the shocking Bayh retirement and the circus show that is the re-introduction of Harold Ford Jr., and of course the long-term implosion of Senator Joe Lieberman, it seems as though the ideals of the “centrist” wing of the Democratic party aka the DLC are rapidly deteriorating.

DLC ideology and it’s popularity among the leadership of the Democratic party was all the rage in the 90s with the success of Bill Clinton who became the first two term elected Democratic president since FDR, albeit without winning a majority of the popular vote. But since his victories Democrats have see success electorally from a much more diverse group ideologically most prominently high-lighted by the election of President Obama and the Pelosi lead majority in Congress.

This is certainly not to say that moderate and conservative Democrats are completely irrelevant. The conservative Blue Dog Democratic caucus established their power in this Congress proving enormously important in close votes in the House. Yet the party apparatus seems to have shifted away from being run from purely a what’s best for the DLC approach, which is a radical departure from the Clinton/ Daschle/ Gephardt party of the 90s-2007.

What will this mean electorally for Democrats? Well that can be hard to say. Even a weakened centrist/conservative alliance among Democrats in the House and Senate can prove extremely important with the ridiculous necessity of overcoming the filibuster in the Senate and the propensity for defections among Democrats in the House both from the left and right.

However, in the crucial leadership roles, more progressive leaning elements in the Democratic Party are in a particularly attractive state for attracting more prominence in a situation where a powerful conservative faction like the DLC is in chaos. Even the Senate where conservative Democrats are given more power due to the nature of the body and the all-important filibuster “requirement” cracks may be emerging from the frustration over the slow pace and incremental approach of health care reform.

Signs of the importance of this move away from the DLC are becoming evident with a report today from CBS News that four Democratic Senators including two up for reelection in potentially competitive seats 2010 (Michael Bennett D-CO and Kirsten Gillibrand D-NY) are asking for reconciliation to be used to pass health care reform with a public option included. The two other Senators (Sherrod Brown D-OH and Jeff Merkely D-OR) are also notable for the progressive campaign platform both ran with in their defeats of Republican incumbents in 2006 and 2008 respectively.

Whether more Democrats running for reelection or competitive open seats will follow these Senators’ lead is unknown but if so it could point to a new emphasis on the part of vuluranble Democrats to run on a platform more supportive of progressive ideals rather than the mushy, centrist approach of their 1990s peers like Senator Bayh.  

The Swing State Project is changing its ratings on two Senate and two gubernatorial races. Our writeups for all of these are below. You can find our complete ratings here: Sen | Gov.

Senate races:

IN-Sen (Open): Safe D to Tossup

SSP was reluctant to change its rating on this race when Dan Coats announced, in part because he started off hedging about his intentions, and in part because the DSCC landed so many solid hits on him in such a short time, we could plausibly believe he might reconsider his decision to un-retire. Now, of course, we’re waiting for the dust to settle from Evan Bayh’s collossal retirement announcement. Dems have a good shot at retaining this seat, especially if they nominate someone like Rep. Brad Ellsworth. But until we know more about who either party’s nominees will be, the future is too hazy to rate this race as anything other than a Tossup. (D)

WA-Sen (Murray): Safe D to RTW

Optimistic Republicans seem to be reading a lot into Dino Rossi’s three words regarding this race: “Never say never.” (While ignoring the statement from the same article that he has “no plans to run for any office at this point.”) The two-time gubernatorial loser has disassembled the campaign apparatus he had in place between 2004 and 2008, and returned to the private sector – but who knows. With enough encouragement from the NRSC, and from folks like Rasmussen (who gave him a 2-point lead against Patty Murray), he might feel motivated to give it one last shot. Murray is a more likable and better-funded figure than Chris Gregoire (who beat Rossi twice), but with the possibility of a Rossi (or Rep. Dave Reichert, although that’s unlikely too) entry, we’ll need to keep one eye on this race. (C)

Gubernatorial races:

IA-Gov (Culver): Tossup to Lean R

Man, it’s hard out there for a gov. Chet Culver was looking pretty good for much of last year, especially since he faced a mostly third-tier crowd of wannabes. But along came former Gov. Terry Branstad looking for his old job back, which drastically changed the equation. Branstad’s long and somewhat rocky tenure doesn’t seem to have hurt him, but all-too-familiar economic woes seem to be pounding Culver, along with so many other incumbent governors. The polls have been especially unkind to him. If it were just Rasmussen showing him down big, we’d be slower on the trigger. But respected pollster Selzer & Co. has now pegged Culver at twenty points behind in two consecutive surveys. That’s brutal, deep hole, which makes this race Lean R. (D)

TX-Gov (Perry): Likely R to Lean R

Despite a national headwind that can only be described as atrocious, Democrats appear to have their best shot at winning back the Governor’s mansion in Texas in over a decade. A series of new polls have placed incumbent Gov. Rick Perry in the precarious position of facing a possible run-off after the state’s March 2nd primary. A run-off would tack on another five weeks to the primary process and would drain the GOP of even more resources. Meanwhile, former Houston Mayor Bill White has been raising money at a prodigious clip and trails Perry by only mid-single digits in many recent polls. There’s no question that Republicans still hold a clear edge in a state as red as this, but White has pushed this race into a more competitive stratum. (J)

• AR-Sen: Cue up that old Jim Hightower saying about how there’s nothing in the middle of the road but squashed armadillos. Blanche Lincoln, already facing strong GOP opposition, is getting hit with salvos from her left flank too. The Sierra Club is running radio ads against her, attacking her opposition to allowing the EPA to regulate carbon emissions.

• HI-Sen: In case there was any doubt, the 86-year-old Daniel Inouye confirmed that he’s running for re-election and a ninth (!) term; he’ll have his campaign’s official kickoff tonight. The GOP says it’s “too early” to discuss whether they’d field a candidate to go against him. Republican Gov. Linda Lingle hasn’t made a truly Shermanesque statement, but has said that she’s concentrating on her last year in office and not running for anything else.

• MD-Sen: There were brief waves of panic yesterday generated by a rumor (originating on a right-wing local blog, who claimed to have an impeccable source) that Barbara Mikulski, 73 years old and slowly recovering from a leg injury last year, was about to retire too. The rumors were quickly rebutted by staffers, though.

• NY-Sen-B: Kirsten Gillibrand got another endorsement from one of the many Democrats associated with a potential primary challenge against her: former NYC comptroller and mayoral candidate William Thompson.

• IL-Gov: It’s the final day of counting absentee and provisional ballots in the Illinois governor’s race today, but state Sen. Kirk Dillard (who trailed by 406 votes to state Sen. Bill Brady after Election Day in the GOP primary) says he won’t concede today regardless of the final number. He’ll wait at least until Feb. 23, when counties submit reports to the state Board of Elections.

• MI-Gov: A quick change of heart for former state Treasurer Bob Bowman, who opened up an exploratory committee to run for the Democratic gubernatorial nod last week. He pulled the plug instead, offering a cryptic explanation that he “just couldn’t commit at this time.” Bowman was probably a long-shot for the nomination, although his self-financing capability could make things interesting.

• OR-Gov (pdf): It looks like most of the action in the Oregon governor’s race is in the Democratic primary, and even there, it may not be shaping up to be an edge-of-your-seat affair. Ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber released an internal poll (by Fairbank Maslin Maullin & Metz) giving him a convincing lead in the primary over ex-SoS Bill Bradbury. Kitzhaber is at 55, with Bradbury at 21 (and self-funding Soloflex founder Jerry Wilson at 2). Both are extremely well-regarded by the Democratic electorate, with Kitzhaber at 69/16 and Bradbury at 54/13.

• TX-Gov: Too bad newspapers can’t vote, because polls show Kay Bailey Hutchison losing the GOP gubernatorial primary to Rick Perry by a wide margin among actual humans. However, she swept the endorsement derby over the last few days among the state’s major papers: the Dallas Morning News, the Houston Chronicle, and the Austin American-Statesman.

• FL-25: Democrats are leaning hard on Joe Garcia for another run in the 25th, now that it’s an open seat, and it seems to be working. Garcia, the former county Democratic chair and a current Energy Dept. official, came close to defeating Mario Diaz-Balart (who’s scurrying off to the open seat in the safer 21st); he’s been talking to the DCCC in the last few days and rounding up his previous staffers. On the GOP side, state Rep. David Rivera is already in and state Sen. Alex Diaz de la Portilla is certainly talking like a candidate, saying he’ll give Rivera “an old-fashioned ass-whooping.”

• IL-11: This isn’t the way to start your general election campaign off on the right foot. GOP nominee Adam Kinzinger, an Air Force vet, had to revise the military credentials section of his bio after a Facebook poster called attention to possible discrepancies in his record. Kinzinger, the NRCC’s favored candidate, left some feathers ruffled on the right en route to his easy primary victory.

• MI-03: A decent-sounding Democrat is stepping forward to run for the open seat left by Republican Vern Ehlers (where Barack Obama nearly won last year, although it’s a historically Republican area with a strong GOP bench). Attorney Patrick Miles is past president of the Grand Rapids bar association, and a Harvard Law classmate of Obama. On the GOP side, state Rep. Justin Amash, who declared his candidacy the day before Ehlers’ retirement announcement, got the endorsement of western Michigan’s biggest power broker: Amway guru and 2006 gubernatorial candidate Dick DeVos.

• MS-04: Rep. Gene Taylor has perhaps the reddest district held by any House Democrat, so it’s surprising that, with the general sense of a Republican-favorable year, no prominent GOPer has tried to surf the red tide against the usually-unassailable Taylor. A local elected official has finally stepped up, though: state Rep. Steven Palazzo.

• PA-06: One other internal poll, clearly intended to scare rich guy Steven Welch from burning any more of his money against Rep. Jim Gerlach in the GOP primary. Gerlach’s poll has Gerlach leading Welch by a head-spinning 71 to 6. Somehow I can’t imagine it’s really that bad, but Welch clearly has an uphill fight ahead of him.

• PA-12: There’s a little more clarity to the developing fields in the 12th, where two prominent potential candidates said no thanks. On the Democratic side, Jack Hanna, the state party’s southwest chair, passed. And this is a bit more of a surprise, on the GOP side: Diane Irey, a Washington County Commissioner who ran a medium-profile campaign against John Murtha in 2006 (but didn’t break 40%), decided not to run either; she’s endorsing Tim Burns, Some Dude already in the race who apparently has self-funding capacity (unlike 2008 candidate Bill Russell, who just has BMW Direct in his corner). Despite the district’s recent turn at the presidential level, this is one district where the disparity between the two parties’ benches may make the difference for the Dems.

• SD-AL: The GOP already has two decent challengers in the field in South Dakota, the state’s SoS, Chris Nelson, and state Rep. Blake Curd, who brings his own money with him. A third possible entrant seems likely now: state Rep. Kristi Noem, the assistant majority leader, says she’ll announce her candidacy soon. State Reps. in South Dakota have tiny constituencies, so name rec may be an issue – but more ominously, there are also rumors that term-limited Gov. Mike Rounds may be considering the race (although he sounded pretty disinterested when asked).

• LA-LG: SoS Jay Dardenne, who recently decided against a promotion to the Senate by challenging David Vitter in the GOP primary, now has another promotion in mind. He’d like to be elected Lt. Governor, now that that job is open (with Mitch Landrieu having departed to become New Orleans mayor). Gov. Bobby Jindal will appoint a temporary successor until the November election, but what Jindal would really like is to get rid of the whole LG position altogether (although he’ll need to get the legislature to cooperate on that idea, which doesn’t seem likely).

• NH-St. Sen.: There’s a special election tonight in the New Hampshire Senate, to fill the seat left behind by Republican Ted Gatsas, elected in November to become mayor of Manchester. Democratic state Rep. Jeff Goley faces Republican state Rep. David Boutin. The election gives Democrats the chance to push their edge in the Senate to 15-9, as well as just to make an assertive statement in New Hampshire, where they face tough retentions in both U.S. House races this year.

It’s been a bit since the Massachusetts election, in which unknown Republican Scott Brown emerged to upset the favored Democrat Martha Coakley in one of union’s deepest-blue states. Since then, Democrats have been recalibrating their strategy.

In a previous post, I outlined the results of how a tied election might look like. Let’s take a look at the prediction:

Now let’s see the actual results:

More below.

A clear pattern emerges: counties that the model forecast Ms. Coakley to win turned out more Democratic than expected, while counties that the model forecast Mr. Brown to win turned out more Republican than expected. The model, in predicting results, relied – incorrectly – on a uniform Republican shift from previous elections which Democrats won. The actual deviations indicate that Massachusetts shifted in a polarized manner: Democratic strongholds shifted Republican to a lesser extent than the state at large, independent areas shifted far more.

Here is a table of the results:

A number of outlets – especially us folks at swingstateproject – have gone even further, taking a look at the results by town. Here is the NYT:

The red areas constitute suburban Massachusetts, home to many of the white working-class Catholics that supported for Senator Hillary Clinton. These areas usually almost always vote Democratic, but they do so based off economic appeals rather than any innate liberalism (much like how West Virginia used to vote).

Republicans generally win Massachusetts by taking away suburban Massachusetts. Mr. Brown’s coalition replicated previous Republican victories:

Interestingly, President Barack Obama did relatively poorly in these suburbs – his performance was the worst since President Bill Clinton’s first run in ’92. He still won them, of course (Massachusetts, lest people forget, is a Democratic stronghold), but by less than previous Democratic candidates. In fact, Mr. Obama underperformed throughout the Northeast, which is something few people know.

The areas Ms. Coakley won generally constitute the “liberal Massachusetts” Republicans love to insult. They are college towns and generally well-off, liberal places.

On the other hand, a number of  towns do not fit these stereotypes. Minorities in Boston, for instance, are responsible for it being a Democratic stronghold (unfortunately for Ms. Coakley, they did not turn out). Much of the rural west, which supported Ms. Coakley by a wide margin, is very white and not that wealthy.

If there is any good news from this election for Massachusetts Democrats, it is that they now have this information. The data provided by Mr. Brown’s surprise victory should prove useful for redistricting, future campaigns, and even predicting the future of Massachusetts politics. Hopefully they will not be caught off guard a second time.

–Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

News that will make you sweat:

Restaurant owner Tamyra d’Ippolito (D) has enough signatures to make the ballot in the race to replace Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN), she told Hotline OnCall in a brief interview.

Reached at her home, d’Ippolito said she was on her way out the door to drop off more signatures at the county clerk’s office. D’Ippolito’s backers have until noon to submit 4,500 signatures, including 500 from each of the state’s 9 districts, to the appropriate county clerks.

“To my knowledge, yes we do. There’s people putting in signatures as we speak,” d’Ippolito said when asked if she has the signatures necessary to qualify for the ballot. “The answer is yes.” […]

GOPers, sensing an opportunity, have mobilized in some places to help d’Ippolito make the ballot. In a posting on her campaign website, d’Ippolito says she needs more signatures in the 8th CD, specifically in Terre Haute and Evansville.

Smart play by the GOP here — if they manage to get d’Ippolito on the ballot, they may move this race all the way over to Safe R. That is, unless the Democrats can manage to run a Charlie Wilson-style write-in campaign to get a more viable contender through the primary. In any event, it’s sounding increasingly likely that Brad Ellsworth is the guy that Democrats want on the ballot:

Meanwhile, Dems are increasingly looking to Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) as the candidate they want on the ballot to replace Bayh. House strategists are quietly beginning to prepare for his Senate bid, which means they will have to find another candidate to run in the competitive 8th district.

UPDATE: The Indiana Democratic Party says that d’Ippolito is off her nut:

In an interview with TPMDC, Indiana Democratic Party Chairman Dan Parker strongly denied that cafe owner Tamyra d’Ippolito has obtained the necessary ballot-petition signatures to appear on the ballot in the Dem primary for Senate — disputing d’Ippolito’s earlier claim to have to have obtained the 500 required in each of the state’s nine House districts.

“I am monitoring the situation with our boards of voter registration and our county clerks’ offices. Those are the places where petitions have to be submitted for certification,” said Parker. “They have to be certified in the counties and then brought to the Secretary of State’s office by Friday. As of this moment, other than Evan Bayh, there’s one candidate, who is a Democratic candidate [d’Ippolito], who has 22 signatures statewide.”

LATER UPDATE: Reid says that d’Ippolito has missed the ballot:

An official in Marion Co. (IN) tells Hotline OnCall d’Ippolito turned in just 3 signatures in the 7th CD, the district with the highest percentage of Dem voters. The noon deadline has passed, meaning d’Ippolito failed to meet the requirements to get on the ballot. She would have been required to submit 4,500 signatures, including at least 500 from each of the state’s 9 districts.

Thanks to everyone for particpating on my diaries regarding the 2010 mid-term elections.  I’d like to recap my House predictions for everyone:

My original hypothetical 2010 election model predicted that the Democrats would lose (net) 30-35 house seats.  SSP nation has provided me feedback that indicates that the Democrats would lose (net) 22-27 house seats.  Although there is not a lot of difference between the two set of numbers, I decided to adjust my predictions accordingly based on SSP particpants vast knowledge regarding elections.  As a result, I’ll alter my previous model and now predict that the Democrats will lose 28 house seats (net).

In part 5 of this series, SSP nation voted on how many Republican held seats will be gained by the Democrats.  The average is 4.5 seats.  I’ll round this number to 5, which means that I believe 33 seats will switch hands from the Democrats to the Republicans.

I want to start out with a baseline of 11 currently held Democratic seats that I think will switch hands.  I ask that everyone please submit what they believe are the 11 most vulnerable Democratic seats that the GOP could win.

Tarheeman’s list of the 11 most vulnerable Democratic seats, not in any particular order:

1.  LA-03

2.  TN-06

3.  AR-01

4.  AR-02

5.  TN-08

6.  ID-01

7.  MD-01

8.  VA-05

9.  KS-03

10. AL-02

11. MS-01

It’s important to note that only 3 of these seats are outside the South (ID-01, KS-03, and MD-01).  

If you do not believe that these seats do not belong in this group, please let me know (a) where you would rank them and (b) what seats should replace them on this list.  Based on your feedback, I’ll revise my list accordingly.

PA2010 has some big news out of departed Rep. John Murtha’s district:

Former state treasurer and auditor general Barbara Hafer said Monday that she will seek the House seat long held by the late Congressman John Murtha, making her the first Democrat to declare her candidacy in the wake of Murtha’s death last week. …

Almost from the moment Murtha died of complications from gallbladder surgery last week, Hafer was mentioned as a top-tier candidate for a Democratic Party eager to hold the 12th District seat. She will bring to the race a long record in elected office, as well as a possible measure of bipartisan appeal-she was a Republican for years before switching parties in 2003. …

Hafer served as a commissioner in Allegheny County in the 1980s, auditor general in the 1990s and treasurer from 1997-2005. She sought the GOP nomination for governor in 2002, but after party leaders coalesced behind then-Attorney General Mike Fisher, Hafer endorsed Democrat Ed Rendell, and switched parties the next year. She was also the Republican nominee for governor against Bob Casey in 1990.

Hafer was also talked about as a possible Dem contender against Rick Santorum – and alternative to Bob Casey – back in 2006, in part because of her pro-choice views. That, plus her GOP background, might not be the best of fits for this conservative, blue-collar district. As PA2010 notes, it remains to be seen whether Hafer will line up establishment support. I tend to doubt, though, that she can clear the field, given her pedigree. And there are a ton of potential candidates here (on both sides), which PA2010 covers in two lists. (Shira Toeplitz of CQ/Roll Call also takes a look at some names.)

Importantly, there won’t be a primary for the special election – nominees will be chosen by party committees. Dave Wasserman was quick to observe that this process caused serious problems for the GOP in both NY-20 and NY-23 last year. Similarly, an acrimonious nomination battle following Rep. Bud Shuster’s 2001 resignation in the very red PA-09, says Wasserman, led to an “unexpectedly close” special election result for Shuster’s son Bill (52-44).

Wasserman and Taniel both note that May 18th – the day of the special election – is also primary day, which almost certainly benefits the Dems. That’s because there are contested Democratic primaries for both Senate (the hot Specter vs. Sestak battle) and for governor (a multi-way race with no real front-runner), while Pat Toomey and Tom Corbett have those nominations all but sewn up for the GOP. There’s also another wrinkle here. Taniel:

Whoever the county chairs place on the general election ballot will not have first established their legitimacy through a primary vote, which means these anointed candidates could face challenges from other members of the party for the right to be the nominee on November’s regularly scheduled ballot. …

This could mean that whoever is nominated in the special election has to fight the opposing party’s candidate while at the same time battling opponents from his own party.

And it could mean that the winner of the special election might not be the same as the winner of his or her party’s nomination for the November general election. This phenomenon, while not unheard-of, has happened before – Neil Abercrombie, for instance, won a special but lost the November nomination on the same day. If one or more candidates on either side feels jilted by their party committee & vows to wage a serious primary challenge, perhaps we could see that sort of thing here, too.

• AZ-Sen: This is good news! For J.D. Hayworth! The right-wing anti-immigrant vote in the GOP primary isn’t going to be split. Minutemen co-founder Chris Simcox ended his bid and endorsed Hayworth, not having gotten much traction on the polling front even before Hayworth’s entry. In a close race, though, Simcox’s few percentage points could make all the difference for Hayworth. Bad news, for the GOP, though, is that Hayworth and John McCain are planning to go all Mutually Assured Destruction on each other in the primary, with Hayworth threatening that if McCain brings up Abramoff, he’ll bring up the Keating 5. Dems really need a marquee candidate here to be poised to seize the smoldering ruins.

• CO-Sen: Andrew Romanoff is rolling out more endorsements, as he seems to be finally getting his primary challenge to Michael Bennet into gear in the wake of recent polling showing him outperforming Bennet in the general election. He’s claiming the endorsement of more than two-thirds of the Democrats in the state House, including current majority leader Paul Weissman, as well as state Senate majority leader John Morse and former House speaker Ruben Valdez. Romanoff, of course, is a former House speaker himself, so he’s got an ‘in’ with the legislative types.

• NV-Sen: I wonder if this is the break that’ll save Harry Reid’s butt in November? (Especially if Sue Lowden winds up winning the GOP nomination, as she’s public enemy number 1 to the state’s Paulists.) The “Tea Party” has filed a “Certificate of Existence” (where can I get one of those, for whenever people doubt that I exist?) in Nevada, and will have its own candidate on the ballot in November. Jon Ashjian will reportedly be their candidate; the question still remains just how big a bite he takes out of the Republican column, though. In addition, there will also be a Reform Party candidate on the ballot and as many as five independents.

• NY-Sen-B: Mort Zuckerman? Really? Maybe he’s taking a page from friend Michael Bloomberg and realizing that, with enough money, any political office is within reach for a restless billionaire. The 72-year-old Daily News publisher and real estate baron is considering a race against Kirsten Gillibrand, although there’s no indication of which party label he’d use. He’s known as a Democrat, but it seems likely he’d pursue either an independent or Republican bid to avoid the Democratic primary (where Harold Ford Jr. already seems to be occupying the turf Zuckerman would need in order to win).

• CT-Gov: Here’s the top facepalm news of the day: Ned Lamont has hired a campaign manager as he officially kicks off his gubernatorial campaign, and he hired Joe Abbey, last seen… wait for it… helming Creigh Deeds’ campaign.

• FL-Gov: This doesn’t sound very promising either, as the St. Petersburg Times looks at the growing sense of torpor surrounding the Alex Sink campaign. Sink has had little trouble fundraising and a so-so GOP opponent, but operatives are starting to worry she’s walking a Martha Coakley-ish line on focusing on insider connections and with a lack of interest in mixing it up with voters or even developing a resonant message.

• PA-Gov: The GOP state party endorsements came with a lot less drama than the Democrats’, seeing as how they’ve had their candidates locked down for most of a year. AG Tom Corbett easily got the endorsement for governor over state Rep. Sam Rohrer, which was widely expected although it still piqued Rohrer’s handful of right-wing supporters. The most drama was actually for the #2 slot; Bucks County Commissioner Jim Cawley managed to win the Lt. Governor endorsement on the second ballot out of a crowded field. On the Democratic side, Philadelphia-based state Sen. Anthony Williams is still expressing some interest in the race, although he’s set a very high bar for entry for himself. He’s sitting $1 million already, and he says if he can get that figure up to $4 million in the next few weeks, he’ll jump in.

• TX-Gov (pdf): There’s yet another poll out of the Texas gubernatorial primaries, from a coalition of newspapers, most prominently the Austin American-Statesman. It’s right in line with the other polls out recently, with Rick Perry at 45, Kay Bailey Hutchison at 29, and Debra Medina at 7. (They don’t poll runoff matchups, or the Dem primary.) Houston mayor Bill White continues to make this a competitive race for the Dems in the general: he trails Perry 43-37, and Hutchison 42-34. Meanwhile, Debra Medina (who recently seemed to blunt any late momentum by revealing her truly kooky side) may have some good company, in the form of Democratic candidate Farouk Shami: he came out with some statements putting him in truther-curious territory as well. Shami is also about to announce the invention of a blow dryer that actually grows hair. (Why aim low, for merely Governor, if that’s true? If it’s really true, he’s about to become a trillionaire.)

• AZ-03: I’m not sure if this is the family name you really want, when running for office, but a new candidate is in the GOP field in the open seat race in the 3rd: Ben Quayle. The 33-year-old attorney, who hasn’t run for office before, is the son of former VP and frequent punchline Dan Quayle.

• FL-24: With the former CEO of the Ruth’s Chris Steakhouse chain, Craig Miller, planning to run in the 24th, Democrats are spotlighting his opposition to tougher laws on drunk driving. (As a restauranteur, he would have a financial interest in getting that extra drink into his guests.) “Once 0.08 becomes law, why not 0.05 or 0.02?” he asked in a 2000 interview.

• MA-10: The William Delahunt retirement rumors aren’t going away, and now Glenn Thrush points to a Delahunt-out/Joe Kennedy III-in/Delahunt-endorses-Kennedy master-plan in the works. Kennedy, a Barnstable County prosecuting attorney, isn’t the only Kennedy of his generation who’s a possible House candidate; Politico helpfully provides a scorecard of various other Kennedys who might run for higher office in the future. At any rate, even if Joe III doesn’t wind up in the next Congress, it’s likely Congress won’t stay Kennedy-free for very long.

• OK-05: There’s one less Oklahoma Republican in the primary for the open seat in dark-red OK-05. Corporation Commissioner Jeff Cloud cited non-life-threatening health concerns in dropping out of the race, although he plans to keep serving in his current job. Six different GOPers are in the field (perhaps most notably, former state Rep. Kevin Calvey), but no Dem has gotten in yet.

• PA-03: One other dropout from a crowded GOP field, this time for the right to take on Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper in the 3rd. Tom Trevorrow, an ophthalmologist who made a splashy entrance recently with a big serving of self-funding and some expensive consultant hires, ended his bid just as quickly, citing his father’s illness.

• RI-01: A couple big names have already gotten into the race to replace retiring Rep. Patrick Kennedy, the biggest possibly being Providence’s mayor David Cicilline (who surprised many by turning down a gubernatorial run this year). Cicilline would be the fourth openly-gay member of Congress, if elected. He’ll have to get past William Lynch in the primary, though; Lynch, the brother of AG and gubernatorial candidate Patrick Lynch, just resigned as the state’s Democratic party chair in order to run. Pretty much every prominent Democrat around is also listed as a possible candidate: Lt. Gov. Elizabeth Roberts (who also decided against a gubernatorial run), ex-Rep. Bob Weygand (of RI-02, who lost the 2000 Senate race to Lincoln Chafee), ex-LG Charles Fogarty, and even state Rep. Betsy Dennigan, who’s currently running a primary against Rep. James Langevin over in RI-02. (Rhode Island seems like Hawaii, where the boundaries between the two districts seem like they’re of little practical importance.) On the GOP side, state Rep. John Loughlin is already in, while former Cranston mayor and Senate candidate Steven Laffey and state party chair Giovanni Cicione are also mentioned.

• TN-08: Everyone has pretty well coalesced around state Sen. (and until recently, gubernatorial candidate) Roy Herron to try to hold retiring Rep. John Tanner’s seat. Democratic state Rep. Craig Fitzhugh just announced that he wouldn’t run, and in a somewhat encouraging sign, said that his own polling showed that he wouldn’t have trouble getting past the various Republicans seeking the seat in the R+3 (but historically Democratic) district. Instead, he didn’t see a way past Herron in the primary.

• VA-05: PPP has some follow-up on its previous general election poll of VA-05, looking at the GOP primary, which has the potential to be one of the biggest flashpoints in the establishment/teabagger schism. For now, chalk this one up to the establishment: state Sen. Robert Hurt leads at 22 (leading among both moderates and conservatives), with Albemarle Co. Commissioner Ken Boyd at 12. The various members of the teabagging rabble all poll in the low single digits. With 51% still undecided, though, this is still anyone’s game once the ad wars begin.

• CA-LG: So, Arnold Schwarzenegger dialed down his banana-republic dictator act from last week, deciding to resubmit Republican state Sen. Abel Maldonado for appointment as Lt. Governor, rather than deciding to swear him in despite not getting enough votes in the Assembly to confirm him. The legislature has another 90 days to decide what to do with him.

This is my first diary, so I hope it is well liked. Evan Bayh has now left us with a challenging job of finding a good replacement for him. Please don’t write off this seat just yet, we do have a good shot. So I will now present my list.

*Brad Ellsworth- Popular Congressman from Evansville, who was voted most attractive member of Congress, and who has thrived in a usual conservative district. He is my top choice, and I would love to see him do it.

*Baron Hill- He is my Congressman, and a damn good one at that. He ran statewide once against Coats and despite all odds came very close to beating him. He made a name for himself by walking across the state. The problem here is that he already has two random primary challengers so his seat would be easily one by Mike Sodrel.

*Joe Donnelley- A representative from Northern Indiana, who one in with the popular wave of other dems in 2006. He ran unsuccessfully for Attorney General in the nineties, loosing the primary.

*Tim Roemer- Former Congressman from South Bend who is now U.S. ambassador to India. He is popular among conservatives and in my view would be a good candidate.

*Jon Weinsapfel- Current popular Mayor of Evansville, who is known as a Washington outsider. Although he seems more interested in a gubernatorial bid in 2012.

*Joe Kernan- The former Governor, who took over when Frank O’bannon died. He was the former Mayor of South Bend. I think he enjoys retirement too much though.

*Joe Andrew- Former DNC chair, who was originally a candidate for Governor in 2004 before Kernan decided to run.

*Bart Peterson- Former Mayor of Indianapolis who was defeated in 2007. I am not from Indy but I don’t think he is that popular there.

*Jill Long Thompson- I hate to mention her but I will anyway. She is a former Congresswoman and undersecretary of Agriculture who had her butt handed to her by Mitch Daniels in 2008.

*Vi Simpson- State Senate minority leader who originally ran for Governor in 2004 before Kernan decided to enter.

*Jim Schellinger- A Indianapolis architect who barely lost the 2008 democratic primary to JLT.

*Joe Hogsett- I heard some people mention him. He is the former SoS. Although he served in the mid nineties.

*Patrick Bauer- The State house speaker who is not that popular, but hey who knows?

I could go on but these are the best I could think of off the top of my head. I really hope it helps. BTW, I HATE EVAN BAYH!!!!!

I would like to hear what you have to say. Who should take Bayh’s place?

Update

Cross Joe Kernan off the list, although I really didn’t think he would run anyway.

Another Update

Also cross Jonathan Weinzapfel off the list, I think he has his eyes on a gubernatorial run or a run for Congress if Ellsworth makes the plunge. Also it looks like Ellsworth is thinking it over at least, his office released the following statement. The Congressman says he will discuss the choice with his wife and family over the next few days before making a decision.        

http://tristatehomepage.com/co…

Sorry yet another update

Thomas McDermott, Jr., the mayor of Hammond and chairman of the Lake County Democratic Party will seek the nomination. Also Bart Peterson is out.