Swing State Project

How about Mike Pence? From the Politico:

House Republican Conference Chairman Mike Pence (R-Ind.) will speak with aides this afternoon to discuss whether to jump into the Indiana Senate race. […]

But aides are skeptical he’ll pull the trigger. There are concerns that he publicly passed on the opportunity to run last month, citing the GOP’s strong position in the House. Further, he’s considered among the strongest candidates for governor of Indiana in 2012.

Privately, aides to Pence say he was concerned about Bayh’s $13 million in the bank, but now Pence could be able to “walk into the seat,” according to an aide.

I find it hard to imagine Mike Pence actually doing this — the mechanics seem to be too difficult to pull off with the filing deadline so soon. That said, the rumors are swirling; we’re even hearing some chatter about Gov. Mitch Daniels plunging into the race.

For the Democrats, speculation seems to be centering on current Reps. Brad Ellsworth and Baron Hill, ex-Rep. Tim Roemer (the current Ambassador to India), and Evansville Mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel, who is viewed as one of the party’s leading candidates for the gubernatorial race in 2012. But of course, Democrats may need to make sure that the ballot is clear before getting the opportunity to hand the nomination over to any of these guys. (And, as it stands right now, that’s an open question.) Otherwise, we may be looking at a Charlie Wilson-style write-in campaign.

UPDATE (Crisitunity): So what about Tamyra d’Ippolito, college-town coffee shop owner and erstwhile Senate candidate? TPM contacted her camp and finds that she’s currently 1,000 votes short of the required 4,500, with a particular shortage in IN-08 (she needs at least 500 in each congressional district). Somehow, given the choice between running her or naming their own preferred candidate, I don’t think the party will get actively involved in the efforts to help her to get on the ballot in time. Neither does d’Ippolito: “So I have no idea what they will do, but they have not been cooperative so far,” d’Ippolito added. “It would be nice if they turned around and became cooperative, but I don’t know.”

UPDATE: It’s now sounding like Mike Pence won’t run, despite an hour or two of interest. Chris Cillizza tweets that Pence’s spokesman’s official statement is: “Mr. Pence has filed for re-election to the 6th Congressional District of Indiana.” Which apparently is code for “no.”

LATER UPDATE (James): d’Ippolito’s campaign manager has told Real Clear Politics that their chances of getting all the required signatures are “slim to none”, but that they won’t step aside if they somehow do.

YET ANOTHER UPDATE: Cross former Democratic Governor Joe Kernan off the list; he says he won’t run.

Unbelievable:

Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) will not seek a 3rd term in the Senate next year, according to a Dem source, handing Dems yet another setback as they struggle to salvage their damaged ship.

Bayh, elected statewide 5 times, will become the 5th Senate Dem not to seek another term. His decision to step aside , first reported by The Fix and confirmed to Hotline OnCall, creates an open seat in IN, a usually-red state that broke the mold in ’08 by voting narrowly for Pres. Obama. […]

Update: The filing deadline is tomorrow, not Friday, as we wrote earlier. Dem sources say Ellsworth is the candidate most likely to jump into the contest.

UPDATE: What a wiener:

“Two weeks ago, the Senate voted down a bipartisan commission to deal with one of the greatest threats facing our nation: our exploding deficits and debt. The measure would have passed, but seven members who had endorsed the idea instead voted ‘no’ for short-term political reasons,” he said. “Just last week, a major piece of legislation to create jobs – the public’s top priority – fell apart amid complaints from both the left and right. All of this and much more has led me to believe that there are better ways to serve my fellow citizens, my beloved state4 and our nation than continued service in Congress.”

Bayh needs to fork over all $13 million of his war chest over to the DSCC, stat.

UPDATE: With the filing deadline tomorrow, Democrats must submit 500 signatures per CD for their replacement candidate to qualify for the ballot. Not sure how Dems can swing this, or if there are any loopholes they can exploit to get someone else on the ballot.

LATER UPDATE: Just to clear up a bit of confusion — if you check out page 16 of this PDF, you’ll see that candidates first have to file a declaration of candidacy. The deadline to do that is tomorrow. Having done that, the candidate has to file their petitions by the 19th.

REPLACEMENT UPDATE: So here’s the deal: if no candidate files, the Indiana Democratic Party will get to select a replacement for Bayh by committee. However, Bayh does have a Democratic challenger right now: Tamyra d’Ippolito. Democrats are hoping that she won’t be able to gather enough signatures in time in order to make the ballot.

So says the Indianapolis Star:

Sen. Evan Bayh will not run for re-election, a decision that will shock Democrats and Republicans alike in Indiana.

In prepared remarks, Bayh, 54, cited excessive partisanship that makes progress on public policy difficult to achieve as the motivation for his decision.

“After all these years, my passion for service to my fellow citizens is undiminished, but my desire to do so in Congress has waned,” he said.

“My decision was not motivated by political concern,” he added. “Even in the current challenging environment, I am confident in my prospects for re-election.”

Among other things, Bayh cited the recent Senate vote against a bipartisan commission to deal with the deficit (which would likely have recommended big cuts in entitlements).

Do we have any bench in Indiana? I assume not.

Yet another blast of polls from America’s most annoyingly prolific pollster.

LA-Sen (2/10, likely voters, 1/14 in parens):

Charlie Melancon (D): 33 (35)

David Vitter (R-inc): 57 (53)

Other: 3 (4)

Undecided: 7 (8)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

MI-Gov (2/9, likely voters):

Alma Wheeler Smith (D): 29

Mike Bouchard (R): 42

Other: 8

Undecided: 20

Alma Wheeler Smith (D): 28

Peter Hoekstra (R): 44

Other: 8

Undecided: 20

Alma Wheeler Smith (D): 30

Mike Cox (R): 45

Other: 8

Undecided: 18

Andy Dillon (D): 32

Mike Bouchard (R): 40

Other: 10

Undecided: 18

Andy Dillon (D): 34

Peter Hoekstra (R): 41

Other: 10

Undecided: 15

Andy Dillon (D): 36

Mike Cox (R): 35

Other: 11

Undecided: 17

Virg Bernero (D): 31

Mike Bouchard (R): 40

Other: 9

Undecided: 20

Virg Bernero (D): 30

Peter Hoekstra (R): 43

Other: 7

Undecided: 19

Virg Bernero (D): 34

Mike Cox (R): 40

Other: 9

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±4.5%)

MO-Sen (2/10, likely voters, 1/19 in parens):

Robin Carnahan (D): 42 (43)

Roy Blunt (R): 49 (49)

Some other: 3 (3)

Not sure: 6 (5)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

ND-Sen (2/9-10, likely voters):

Tracy Potter (D): 17

John Hoeven (R): 71

Other: 4

Undecided: 8

Heidi Heitkamp (D): 29

John Hoeven (R): 65

Other: 1

Undecided: 5

(MoE: ±4.5%)

ND-AL (2/9-10, likely voters):

Earl Pomeroy (D-inc): 40

Rick Berg (R): 46

Other: 3

Undecided: 11

Earl Pomeroy (D-inc): 45

Kevin Cramer (R): 44

Other: 3

Undecided: 7

Earl Pomeroy (D-inc): 47

Paul Schaffner (R): 38

Other: 5

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±4.5%)

NH-Sen (2/10, likely voters, 1/12 in parens):

Paul Hodes (D): 39 (40)

Kelly Ayotte (R): 46 (49)

Other: 3 (3)

Not Sure: 13 (8)

Paul Hodes (D): 44 (45)

Ovide Lamontagne (R): 38 (38)

Other: 4 (6)

Not Sure: 13 (11)

Paul Hodes (D): 41 (43)

Bill Binnie (R): 42 (37)

Other: 3 (5)

Not Sure: 13 (15)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

PA-Gov (2/8, likely voters):

Jack Wagner (D): 28

Tom Corbett (R): 49

Other: 5

Undecided: 17

Joe Hoeffel (D): 29

Tom Corbett (R): 51

Other: 5

Undecided: 15

Dan Onorato (D): 26

Tom Corbett (R): 52

Other: 5

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±4.5%)

PA-Sen (2/8, likely voters, 1/18 in parens):

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 38 (40)

Pat Toomey (R): 47 (49)

Other: 5 (4)

Undecided: 10 (8)

Joe Sestak (D): 35 (35)

Pat Toomey (R): 43 (43)

Some other: 7 (6)

Not sure: 15 (16)

(MoE: ±3%)

Looks like Tea Party activists didn’t learn from NY-23

http://politicalwire.com/archi…

Political Wire says that they’ve registered as an official party for this November and will have a candidate. Further down in the comments thread of the Political Wire story, a comment says that Jon Ralston is reporting that their candidate will be Jon Ashjian. Apparently he is the president of a few companies in Las Vegas.

Does anything think a Tea Party candidate will gain traction in an election in Nevada? For some reason Nevada doesn’t strike me as Tea Party-land, but I could be wrong.

I think even if this guys only musters 1-2% of the vote it could be a huge difference. I’m giving Reid a 55-45 shot at being re-elected with a Tea Party candidate on this ballot.

What say you?

The latest Iowa poll by Selzer and Co. for the Des Moines Register finds Governor Chet Culver’s approval rating at a new low of 36 percent. Only 34 percent of respondents said Iowa is headed in the right direction, while 57 percent said the state is on the wrong track. The poll was in the field from January 31 to February 3 and surveyed 805 Iowa adults, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.

Culver’s approval rating fell to 36 percent, with 53 percent disapproving. The Des Moines Register’s Iowa poll from September had Culver in positive territory, with 50 percent approval and 39 percent disapproval. The Des Moines Register’s November poll had Culver with 40 percent approval and 49 percent disapproval.

The Des Moines Register noted that since September, Culver’s approval among Democrats has fallen from 72 percent to 57 percent, while Senator Tom Harkin’s approval among Democrats was measured at 77 percent in both polls.

The economic recession is probably a major factor in Culver’s slide. Although the state’s eight leading economic indicators were measured in positive territory in December 2009 (for the first time since April 2007), employment remains weak. Iowa’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 6.6 percent in December 2009, and Iowa Workforce Development found,

Compared to last December, the Iowa economy has lost 40,100 jobs. Manufacturing still leads all sectors in terms of losses, down 19,900 over the year. Trade and transportation and construction followed with losses of 7,900 and 7,700, respectively. Education and health services remained the most resilient sector, adding 2,600 jobs since December 2008.

The slow economy has caused state revenues to fall below projections, which prompted Culver to make a 10 percent across-the-board cut in current-year spending in October. Spending cuts are rarely popular with anyone.

Side note: I wondered last fall whether the scandal surrounding Iowa’s film tax credit, which broke in September, would hurt Culver. I was surprised to see that 61 percent of respondents in the Des Moines Register’s poll think the film tax credit is “good for the state.” The poll question didn’t mention how much the film tax credit has cost compared to the economic impact. I agree with economist Dave Swenson, who thinks the program was flawed from the start.

The latest Register survey also polled Culver against the four Republican challengers. The hypothetical match-ups come from a subset of 531 “likely voters,” producing a slightly higher margin of error: plus or minus 4.3 percent.

Former Governor Terry Branstad remains the strongest challenger, beating Culver 53 percent to 33 percent. Bob Vander Plaats leads Culver 43 percent to 40 percent. Strangely, Culver trailed Branstad and Vander Plaats by slightly larger margins in the Register’s November poll, even though his approval rating was a little higher then. Culver barely beats the other Republicans, who are less well known. He leads State Representative Chris Rants 41 percent to 37 percent and State Representative Rod Roberts 41 percent to 36 percent.

Needless to say, it’s never a good sign when an incumbent governor is below 40 percent approval and barely breaks 40 percent against any challenger. Culver needs to make up ground this year in order to be re-elected. The right direction/wrong track numbers show that voters under 35 were more likely than the overall population to think things are going in the right direction, but most of the electorate in November will be over 35.

Culver has chances to improve his standing this year. If the state’s leading economic indicators continue a positive trend, the job market may improve. Also, spending on infrastructure projects supported by the I-JOBS state bonding initiative will pick up in the spring and summer. So far nearly $600 million in I-JOBS money has been awarded, but only $20.7 million has been spent. As the projects take shape, more Iowans will be employed and more people will see the benefits to their communities.

On the political side, Branstad hasn’t received much scrutiny from the media yet, but when the gubernatorial campaign heats up, his accountability problem may become more apparent. A hard-fought Republican primary will exacerbate the rift between moderates and conservatives. Some conservatives have already vowed not to support Branstad if he is the GOP nominee. More focus on the inconsistencies between candidate Branstad and Governor Branstad may help Culver’s standing with Democrats and independents.

Share any relevant thoughts in this thread.

UPDATE: The Des Moines Register’s Kathie Obradovich says Culver may as well start shopping his resume around, but Iowa blogger John Deeth argues that Culver is not dead yet.

SECOND UPDATE: The latest poll commissioned by The Iowa Republican blog and the Republican Concordia group found Branstad leading Culver 57 percent to 29 percent and Vander Plaats leading Culver 43 percent to 39 percent. I don’t know much about the firm that conducted that poll, and I would put more stock in Selzer’s numbers for the Des Moines Register.

My campaign manager recently drafted a letter to discuss the electability of my candidacy. Recently, we had a strong showing at the gubernatorial caucuses, stunning the pundits who said we didn’t have a chance.

As the Chief Author of the Minnesota Health Plan, I’ve helped organize over 70 signers onto the bill, including several of my opponents in this primary race. If I have the opportunity to serve as Minnesota’s next Governor, I will push for real changes. That is my promise to you. We will see real change!

I look forward to hearing any questions, comments or concerns relating to the electability of my candidacy and addressing them directly.

I hope you will join us.

Sincerely,

John

—

John Marty

DFL Candidate for Governor

http://www.johnmarty.org  

Traveling around the state, our campaign has heard from countless people who believe in John Marty’s vision, they respect his values, they trust his integrity — they say he could become a truly great governor. However, some say he can’t win.  Some say he’s too nice.

   John is actually more electable than other candidates this year, and here’s why:

   Many independent and Independence Party voters believe that both major parties are controlled by corporate interests and special interest money. John has consistently rejected lobbyist and PAC money, and he has been recognized, time and time again, for his courage and independence in standing up to powerful interests. John is the candidate with the credibility to win over those independents.

   At a time when voters are increasingly cynical about politicians, John has earned a reputation of being trust-worthy and honest. Research has shown that candidates do best, not by appealing to the center, but by holding firm convictions that, while they may be less popular, show evidence of commitment and integrity. John is the candidate who can overcome that cynicism, and win the respect of voters who know he will do what he says.

   Many Green Party members are former DFLers who left the party because it has too often surrendered to political expedience. John is the candidate who has demonstrated the courage of his convictions and speaks to the values of the Green Party.

   Tens of thousands of low-income people who were inspired and came out to vote in 2008 are once again feeling that the political system doesn’t care about them. John’s promise of affordable health care for all, through his single-payer, Minnesota Health Plan can give them renewed hope. His commitment to ending poverty — through his legislation for affordable childcare, living wages, and fair taxes legislation — gives them a chance to see a brighter future ahead. John is the candidate who can inspire and re-engage disenchanted voters.

   So why do some DFLers say that John Marty cannot win? Because John ran for Governor in 1994 and lost by a large margin.

   In that race, John was challenging a popular incumbent governor. And in 1994, the beginning of the Gingrich “revolution,” Republicans saw landslide victories across the country; not a single Republican incumbent in any gubernatorial race or U.S. House or Senate race lost that November. Even so, it wasn’t a perfect campaign. John has acknowledged his mistakes — and learned from them. He is sixteen years older and wiser and has the confidence and experience to match his vision and courage.

   Times change, and in 2010, John Marty is the right person at the right time.

   In recent years, John has repeatedly shown his ability to appeal to independents and Republicans. Although his suburban senate district had a four point Republican edge according to the court redistricting panel,  John has won by large margins — over 62% last time — which means he picks up both independent and Republican votes. John has shown an ability to win — not by avoiding tough issues but through his bold vision and ethical leadership.

   On caucus night, John exceeded expectations, outperforming seven other gubernatorial candidates in the straw poll, without being a wealthy, self-financed candidate, without accepting a penny of special interest money, and without compromising his values.

   We need John to be the DFL candidate for Governor, and delegates around the state are joining forces to see that John receives the party endorsement in April.  Please join us!

   Warm regards,

   Taina Maki

   Campaign Manager

   P.S. Please visit our new website at: JohnMarty.org.

NYT:

Representative William Delahunt, Democrat of Massachusetts, was speaking by phone Friday about the decision of his colleague Patrick Kennedy not to seek re-election in Rhode Island. In doing so, Mr. Delahunt, who has yet to say whether he will seek re-election himself this year, might have signaled a hint about his own future.

“He went through a process that all of us in public life go through,” said Mr. Delahunt of Mr. Kennedy. “Honestly, I am going through that process myself.”

Mr. Delahunt, who has served in Congress since 1997, said he would announce whether he would seek re-election in March.

Delahunt, as you may know, occupies a district that Obama won by 55-44 in 2008, Kerry by 56-43 in ’04, and Gore by 54-39 in 2000. Yet Republicans view his seat as their ripest pick-up opportunity in the state after Scott Brown handily carried the district last month in the state’s special Senate election. Republicans actually have a bench to choose from here: ex-state Treasurer Joe Malone has begun polling for the race, and state Rep. Jeffrey Perry is already in.

For the Democrats, there has been some buzz about Joe Kennedy III swapping himself in, but that’s yet to be substantiated as anything more than idle chatter at this point.

RaceTracker Wiki: MA-10