Swing State Project

Once again I want to thank everyone for their insight on creating a 2010 mid-term election model.  I value both the positive feedback and the constructive criticism.  I need your input, so please do not hold back!  

Results

My previous model predicted that the Democrats would lose 3 seats in the Senate and 32 seats in the House.  I asked SSP nation to provide feedback, and here are the results:

72.73% voted that my model for the House is realistic.

36.37% voted my model for the Senate is realistic.

Analysis

When I first created this model, I felt that it was realistic that the Dems would lose 32 seats in the House, but I felt that losing 3 seats in the Senate was, should we say, optimistic.  After reviewing the comments from my previous diary, I thought that rdw72777 made a beautiful point that my model was probably skewed too much on data from the 1982 election.  After tinkering with the model, I felt that we should probably lose 4 or 5 seats in the Senate IF we could compare the 2010 mid-terms to historical data.

New Predictions

Based on the current mood of the United States, I predict the Democrats will lose 30-35 seats in the House and 4-5 seats in the Senate.  

Where will the Dems lose 4-5 (net) Senate seats?

This is where we have some fun.  Which seats will switch hands?  Here is in order the seats that I think will switch hands between parties (with aggregate tally (net) of seats changing hands):

(1)  ND.  I’d say the Republicans have a 95+% chance of winning this seat.  Republicans +1.

(2)  AR.  Democrats seem to be toxic to this state.  Boozman may be the next Arkansas Senator.  Republicans +2.

(3)  NV.  Seems like all incumbents, regardless of party, are in trouble.  Reid’s problems are magnified based on his stature and the current environment.  Republicans +3.

(4)  DE.  Coons has potential:  Castle is established.  Delaware is a blue state, but Castle has been around for a long time.  Leans Republican.  Republicans +4.

(5)  CO.  Bennet has not impressed Colorado to date.  He’s also not entrenched, and I think the Republicans smell blood.  Slight edge to the Republicans.  Republicans +5.

(6)  MO.  Blunt is not an attractive candidate while Carnahan has loads of potential.  The state is purple, with a bit more red than blue in the mix.  Slightest edge to the Democrats.  Republicans +4.

(7)  PA.  Sestak vs. Specter.  Sestak vs. Toomey.  Specter vs. Toomey.  This is a true political triangle.  If the Democratic nominee isn’t bloodied too bad from the primary, I see the Dems holding control.  If it’s a nasty primary, I see Toomey defeating either candidate.  Tossup at best.

(8)  OH.  Democrats had a great chance of picking this seat up IF the election was held 6-8 months ago.  Not the case now.  Tossup at best.

(9)  NH.  Ditto OH.  Tossup.

(10)  IL.  Kirk is the nominee, but I wonder if his support is somewhat thin.  His primary victory was unimpressive.  Alexi G. is a good candidate. Leans Dem.

(11)  KY.  If Paul is the nominee, I think the Dems could potentially pick up this seat.  However, KY seems somewhat toxic to the Dems.  Leans Republican.

(12)  IN.  Bayh doesn’t make many of us happy, but he appears popular in Indiana.  Coats is a retread, and I retreads have a history of underperforming the expectations of their party.  Leans Dem.

(13)  NC.  For those who actually who know about Burr, he is not well liked in North Carolina.  However, the Dems didn’t attract a great candidate like Roy Cooper.  Marshall would make a good candidate, but she’s not well known for someone who has been SoS for 13 years.  Leans/Likely Republican.

(14)  FL.  Rubio will most likely win the Republican nomination.  If the Dems have a chance of picking this seat up, their best bet is for Crist to pull a switcheroo.  It might happen.  At this point, Likely Republican.

I don’t see any other seat that’s really worth mentioning.  This might change if NY got a credible Republican to go head-to-head with Gillibrand.  Hasn’t happened yet.  I’m also keeping an eye out on Iowa.  Grassley’s popularity has waned from his previous high marks.

Stay tuned for my House predictions.  I value all input, no matter if it’s critical or positive, so please don’t hold back!  

• Election Results: With 99.1% of precincts reporting (97 remain, apparently mostly in Cook County), both sides of the governor’s race remain too close to call. Democratic incumbent Pat Quinn has declared victory, sitting on a 7,000 vote lead (50.4%-49.6%) and with the remaining precincts in Cook County likely to go his way, although Dan Hynes hasn’t conceded yet. On the GOP side, we’re looking most likely at a recount, as state Sen. Bill Brady leads fellow state Sen. Kirk Dillard currently by a 751-vote margin (20.3%-20.2%), as they both squeaked past the two presumed frontrunners, former state party chair Andy McKenna and former AG Jim Ryan. The fact that the remaining votes are from Cook County, however, may be poised to help the moderate suburbs-based Dillard, though, rather than the conservative downstate Brady, so this race seems likely to get even closer (Nate Silver actually projects a one-vote victory for Brady based on broader Cook County trends). Recount procedures make it sound like a protracted process – an initial vote tally won’t happen until March 5, and then the process “could take months to complete” – giving Quinn a big headstart on whoever the GOP victor turns out to be.

As expected, Alexi Giannoulias and Mark Kirk are the Senate nominees, although both won their races with somewhat underwhelming percentages (39% for Giannoulias, and 57% for Kirk, who could have been in more trouble had the teabagging right coalesced behind one person in particular). Conservatives did triumph over establishment candidates in several GOP House primaries, though, as Bob Dold! beat state Rep. Beth Coulson in the 10th, and state Sen. Randy Hultgren beat Ethan Hastert in the 14th.

In Florida, as expected, state Sen. Ted Deutch easily won the special election primary to succeed Rep. Robert Wexler, beating former Broward Co. Commissioner Ben Graber 86-15. It looks like he’ll face Republican Ed Lynch (the 2008 nominee), who defeated Joe Budd by only 46 votes (but with only 8,000 total GOP votes, that’s outside the margin for an automatic recount). And here’s a surprise out of Kentucky: Democrats picked up a state House seat in the dark-red HD 24, which was recently vacated when Republican Jimmy Higdon got promoted to the state Senate in another special election. Terry Mills won, 54-46, based on an overwhelming edge (89-11) on his home turf of Marion County, reminding us that, at the end of the day, all politics is local.

Finally, last night was caucus and straw poll night in Minnesota. Only 80% of precincts have reported yet – I guess they go to bed early in Minnesota – but the straw poll in the Democratic governor’s race points to only a lot of chaos at this point. Minneapolis mayor R.T. Rybak led with 21.8%, followed closely by state House speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher at 20.2%. However, “uncommitted” is a solid 3rd at 15%, there are five other candidates who managed to break 5% (John Marty, Tom Rukavina, Paul Thissen, Matt Entenza, and Tom Bakk), and ex-Sen. Mark Dayton doesn’t even seem to be bothering with the whole process, planning on going straight to the primary, so there’s not much clarity on how the field will shake out. The GOP field seems much more clear-cut, where former state House minority leader Marty Seifert beat state Rep. Tom Emmer 50-39, with the rest of the field in the low single digits.

• AZ-Sen: With the imminent entry of ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth into the Republican primary against John McCain, we’re already looking at dueling internal polls. McCain offers up a poll from POS, giving him a 59-30 lead over Hayworth. Hayworth has his own poll from McLaughlin, which, not surprisingly, shows him much closer, trailing 49-33.

• FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek, NASCAR dad? Meek plans to call attention to his campaign by shelling out to be the lead sponsor of Mike Wallace’s car in an upcoming race at Daytona.

• IN-Sen: With the surprising announcement by ex-Sen. Dan Coats last night that he’s interested in a comeback and would start seeking the signatures to qualify for the Indiana GOP nod, the oppo pretty much writes itself. For starters, Coats can’t even sign his own petition – he’s been a registered voter in Virginia for more than a decade, not Indiana. And what’s he been doing for much of that time? Lobbying… for King & Spalding, on behalf of nice people like the Carlyle Group and Bank of America. The Plum Line also points to Coats accusing Bill Clinton of “wagging the dog” when he started going after al-Qaeda in 1998, allegedly to distract the press from his peccadilloes… and we all know how that turned out.

• ND-Sen: Democrats have, well, somebody ready to go if ex-AG Heidi Heitkamp doesn’t get into the Senate race to replace retiring Byron Dorgan. State Sen. Tracy Potter, who represents Bismarck, will be announcing his candidacy on Friday. Other potential candidates seem to be holding back, waiting to see what Heitkamp does; she’s been strangely silent since initially expressing interest in the seat last month.

• NY-Sen-B: Quinnipiac’s first poll of the New York Senate race after the Harold Ford Jr. boomlet began finds, well, pretty much what everyone else has found: Kirsten Gillibrand beats him by a wide margin but doesn’t break 50%. Gillibrand beats 36-18, with Jonathan Tasini at 4. Quinnipiac also tests general election matchups against Republican port commissioner Bruce Blakeman (they don’t even bother testing ex-Gov. George Pataki, who doesn’t seem to be making any moves to get into the race). Gillibrand beats Blakeman 44-27, and Ford beats him 35-26. Gillibrand is slowly gaining some more name rec, up to a 42/28 approval. Blakeman may not have the GOP primary to himself, though, as a strange blast from the past is re-emerging to say he’s interested in the race: ex-Rep. Joseph DioGuardi. In case the name doesn’t ring a bell, DioGuardi served in the House representing Westchester County from 1984 to 1988, when he was defeated by Nita Lowey.

• NY-Gov: The same Quinnipiac sample looks at the governor’s race, finding huge approval gaps between Andrew Cuomo (54/16) and David Paterson (34/49). Cuomo wins the Democratic primary 55-23. Cuomo beats Rick Lazio 57-25, while Lazio manages to get past Paterson 40-39. There’s also one other bit of good news for Cuomo (who’s seemed gunshy about taking on Paterson, perhaps out of bad memories of his race against Carl McCall). The poll asked if his candidacy would be “racially divisive,” and respondents answered “no” by an 80-14 margin, including 73-22 among African-Americans. Marist (pdf) also just released the gubernatorial half of its recent Senate poll, finding generally similar numbers. Cuomo wins the primary 70-23. Cuomo beats Lazio 64-27, while Lazio edges Paterson 46-43.

• TN-Gov: Add one more candidate running for higher office who’s publicly copped to being birther-curious: Lt. Gov. (and GOP gubernatorial candidate) Ron Ramsey. Not having made much of an impression in terms of polling (where Rep. Zach Wamp has an edge) or fundraising (where Knoxville mayor Bill Haslam is cleaning up), this seems like the most attention Ramsey has gotten so far.

• TX-Gov: Here’s more evidence that the Texas GOP gubernatorial primary may be headed for a runoff: the new Rasmussen poll of the primary doesn’t have anyone coming even close to 50%. Incumbent Rick Perry leads at 44, with Kay Bailey Hutchison lagging at 29, and Paulist insurgent Debra Medina all the way up to 14 on the strength of some buzz coming out of her debate performances. KBH may be counting on a runoff as her only way left to salvage this race, but somehow it seems like, in a runoff, Medina votes are a lot likely to gravitate toward the secession-invoking Perry rather than consummate DC insider Hutchison. In the general, all three defeat Democratic ex-Houston mayor Bill White, although, as one would expect, KBH puts up the biggest margin: 49-36. Perry wins 48-39, while Medina wins by only 41-38.

• AR-02: One of the non-Tim Griffin candidates in the Republican field, David Meeks, dropped out of the race today, probably realizing he was in over his head with the kind of attention open seat races get. One other candidate, restaurant owner Scott Wallace remains, and he may well carry the teabagger flag against Beltway creature Griffin. Realizing the best way to win this is by painting Griffin as insider, the DCCC is turning their attention to Griffin’s past as GOP behind-the-scenes fixer, calling attention to his efforts at voter suppression. Over in the diaries, ARDem takes a look at the developing Dem field, which currently contains state House speaker Robbie Wills, liberal state Sen. Joyce Elliott, and retiring Vic Snyder’s chief of staff, David Boling. It won’t contain, however, Little Rock mayor Mike Stodola, or Public Service Commissioner Paul Suskie, who had seemed to be laying the groundwork for a run.

• CA-12, CA-AG: False alarm: Rep. Jackie Speier is staying put in the 12th District, where’s she been in place for only a couple years. Rumors that she was about to move over to the state AG’s race had many of the state legislators on the Peninsula angling to replace her.

• GA-04: In the wake of an internal from Rep. Hank Johnson showing him crushing his three opponents in the Dem primary in this solidly-blue district in Atlanta’s suburbs, one of those opponents got out of the way: DeKalb Co. Commissioner Lee May. May is an ally of former DeKalb Co. CEO Vernon Jones, so it’s possible that he’s getting out of the way primarily so that Jones can get a bigger share of the non-Johnson vote.

• MA-10: With the general sense that this is the most vulnerable district in Massachusetts (as seen with its votes in the Senate special election last month), Republicans are taking more of an interest in challenging Rep. William Delahunt in this usually-ignored seat. Former state treasurer Joe Malone is probably the biggest name to express interest, but at least one other credible contender, state Rep. Jeffrey Perry, is already announcing his candidacy. State Sen. Robert Hedlund is also expressing some interest.

• NJ-07: One big hole in the Dems’ recruitment schedule has been the 7th, narrowly won by freshman GOP Rep. Leonard Lance in 2008. They’ve managed to fill the gap with Ed Potosnak, who’s elevated slightly above Some Dude status by the full Rolodex he brings with him after working for a number of years as a Hill staffer for Rep. Mike Honda.

• PA-11: Lackawanna Co. Commissioner Corey O’Brien has a compelling argument for why he should win the primary in the 11th: he says Rep. Paul Kanjorski has “zero” chance of defeating Republican Lou Barletta in their third face-off, citing Kanjorski’s low approval ratings. O’Brien has been fundraising well ($180K last quarter, not far from Kanjo’s $237K) and recently hit the airwaves with a small cable buy for his first TV spot.

• CA-LG: Is San Francisco mayor (and gubernatorial race dropout) Gavin Newsom actually thinking about a run for the dead-end job that is California’s #2? Officially he’s not interested, but he hasn’t said no, and a new public poll from Tulchin gives him a big lead in a hypothetical LG primary, with Newsom at 33 against the two declared candidates: Los Angeles city councilor Janice Hahn at 17 and state Sen. Dean Florez at 15. Meanwhile, the state Senate this week takes up the issue of filling the current vacancy in the LG’s chair (vacated by now-Rep. John Garamendi); there’s actually talk of blocking Ahnold appointee state Sen. Abel Maldonado, despite that getting the moderate Republican Maldonado out of his seat would open up his Dem-leaning district for a takeover and help push the Dem edge in the Senate toward the magic 2/3s mark.

• CT-AG: The story of Susan Bysiewicz just gets stranger and stranger; she decided that rather than run for governor, she’d prefer to run for AG, but now the job’s current occupant, Richard Blumenthal, says that possibly she can’t. An AG opinion interprets state law requiring ten years of legal practice as unclear and urges a declaratory ruling on Bysiewicz’s case from a court. Bysiewicz, for her part, said she won’t seek the declaratory ruling and is simply plowing ahead with her AG campaign, although it’s possible one of the other candidates in the race might force the issue in the courts.

• Polltopia: The skepticism toward those SurveyUSA polls commissioned by Firedoglake continues to grow, this time from political science professor and frequent Pollster.com contributor Alan Abramowitz. His gravest concerns are with the leading questions in the issues portions of the poll on health care reform, but he also points to serious problems with the samples’ compositions that we were quick to flag. He observes that the samples deeply underrepresent younger votes, and that the youth subsets are so small that there’s no good way to “weight up” younger voters to a more proportionate level.

It’s on:

New Castle County Executive Chris Coons made it official today: He’s challenging Congressman Mike Castle for the open U.S. Senate seat long held by Vice President Joe Biden. […]

“People here in Delaware are hurting, and Congress has failed to deliver the change we voted for in 2008. I’m running to bring new energy and a new approach to Washington,” Coons said in a news release.

“Before I was elected in 2004, the county government was mired in scandal. I restored integrity and confidence in county government. I cut wasteful spending, helped businesses to create jobs, and made our communities safer. I want to take my strong track record of getting real results to the U.S. Senate because the people of Delaware deserve leadership that represents their values.”

Cross posted at Daily Kos

Ohio Daily Blog and the Cleveland Plain Dealer are reporting that Lt. Governor Lee Fisher has fired his campaign manager, Geri Prado, and replaced her with Jay Howser, who had worked on the campaigns of Chris Dodd (D-CT) and Mary Landrieu (D?-LA).  

The reason for the Fisher fizzle is no mystery.  Despite raising massive amounts of money and endorsements, Fisher has not caught fire with the electorate, especially the Democratic primary electorate.  With more than one poll showing Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, despite being at an enormous fundraising disadvantage, polling better in the general election against former Bush official Rob Portman, Fisher has seen his poll numbers slide slowly over time as people nationally began to realize that Jennifer Brunner’s grassroots campaign might prevail in the primary.

Fisher has also received numerous critical stories in the Washington Post over what it called a less than impressive campaign and his tapping dry his donor base has lead to a leveling off of his fundraising, the Fisher campaign is struggling to project the inevitable frontrunner status it declared in the fall.

Send a message to the DSCC, who threatened Brunner over her campaign, by donating to elect an authentic and genuine progressive to the cause.  Send a message that a Mary Landrieu-type candidate isn’t what’s needed in Ohio or the U.S. Senate.  Sign up to help Brunner with her grassroots phonebank!

Together we can win this race!

As others have commented, I had hoped that Judge Brunner would have run and held the Ohio SoS gig.

And, it is true that SOME GOPers would have been after her scalp. But I don’t give that much credence because her predecessor was just so UTTERLY incompetent that the GOP BoE members around the state secretly approved of Brunner’s performance.

And it’s more than just the ideological purists who have issues with Fisher. Although its been a few years, the last time that Lee ran statewide, to call his performance “lackluster” is being generous. He is going to have to REALLY amp up his game if he hopes to win the general.Now I see that he has fired his campaign manager. Hmmn…

And although Judge Brunner’s fundraising has been dismal, she still seems to poll pretty close to Fisher vs. the GOP candidates. And when you look at her $$, remember that ODP chair Chris Redfern and Rev. Ted have completely shut her out of “insider” money, and at this point, that’s all there is. The roots (net or otherwise) are BROKE and burned out.

Having met and chatted with Judge Brunner, I feel that her inspiration for the Senate run was Sherrod Brown. I just sense many similarities in approach and attitude.

Also, many very loyal Dems in Ohio are just sick and tired of ODP dictating statewide candidate anointing. Some of their picks have been dreadful and the results have been BAD. Going back over the last 20 years, they’ve made some REAL blunders.

It is possible that 2010 in Ohio is a disaster in the making. But, in the end, I think not.

1. Ted will hold serve. Ohioans loath voting against an incumbent, barring Coingate level scandal.

2. Even if we drop the SoS (which I grasp is a Bad Thing) we might steal the Auditor  which means reapportionment stays in our hands. (But which is apparently going to be WASTED on this gentleman’s agreement nonsense of “we lose one, they lose one.”)

3. State Legislative redistricting requires that we control (pick two) Governorship (probably retain), State House (maybe retain) or pick up the State Senate (no WAY in HELL)

4. I expect that Fisher will win the primary but he’ll struggle in the fall in a race that we SHOULD win more easily than how it’s gonna turn out. If Fisher loses either race, Redfern faces a coup d’etat and probably walks the plank.

Three paragraphs of original writing, well a picture’s worth a thousand words, right?

But in all seriousness, here are maps of the Democratic primary for both Governor and Senator.

For Governor (on left), green is for Hynes, Orange for Quinn. For Senator (on right), green is for Giannoulias, Orange for Hoffman. The color scale is slightly different for Senate, since it was a three-person race, Cheryle Jackson won exactly one county. (Too many colors is part of the reason I’m not attempting to do the Republican race at this point in the night.)

As you can see, Quinn won where it mattered: his slight margin in Cook County (especially 10% margin in the city of Chicago), is what’s pulling him across the finish line. Frankly, I think Hynes screwed up with his Harold Washington ad that enraged plenty of voters. (On the bright side, I had been considering voting GOP for governor, but now that the GOP nominee is Bill Brady, the Dem is getting my vote.)

Hynes won huge in Metro-East (Madison County by 27%, St. Clair by 5%), Springfield (Sangamon County by 24%) and Decatur (Macon County by 27%). Hynes also added to his margin in North Central Illinois, winning Peoria by 2%, Bloomington (McLean County by 3%), and LaSalle/Peru by 4%. Again, Quinn won where it matters – he didn’t get completely demolished in the collar surrounding Cook County, losing Will County by 10% but eking out wins in both Lake and DuPage. Quinn’s strongest county? Jo Daivess (and you say we’re not southern!) in the northwest corner of the state, Hynes’ was Fayette in the souther-center of the state.

For Senate, Giannoulias did extremely well downstate: that solid green represents Giannoulias at 60%+ in a 3-way race. Hoffman held his own in the population centers in Chicagoland, especially the more affluent ones, stomping out wins in Lake and DuPage. Giannoulias won the city of Chicago itself, while Hoffman squeezed out an edge in the Cook suburbs. Giannoulias’ solid margins downstate were probably too much to overcome without definitive wins in Chicago and bigger wins in the suburbs. Hoffman’s best county was Lake (49.4%), worst was Rock Island (only 18.2%). Giannoulias’ best was 63.3% in Monroe, worst was Clark, the exact reverse of Cheryle Jackson. Her 23.7% in Cook was pretty important to her strong showing though.

Lastly, of note, the collar counties’ voting powers were diluted today thanks to astronomic turnout (in comparison) in Cook County:

550,000 were cast in Cook for the Democratic primary compared to 905,000 votes for Blagojevich in 2002 (when he had a very generic Dem quality), a 60% turnout ratio compared to 2002 Democratic turnout.

34,000 votes were cast in Lake compared to 76,000 for Blago (a 44% ratio). The ratio in DuPage was 42%, 37% in Kane County, and 45% in Will County. I’m guessing the (relative) high turnout in Cook County is due to our willingness to vote out Todd Stroger (incidentally, whoo Toni Preckwinkle!).

Once we get precinct results and I make the requisite shapefiles, we can break down the city of Chicago and suburban Cook County to compare areas of strength. I’ll probably do maps for that for Governor, Senate, and Cook County Board President. Let me know what other maps you’d like…

2:00am: We’ve crossed the threshold into 99% of the vote reporting; Quinn’s lead over Hynes is 5,400, while it’s a little thinner for Brady, who’s up on Dillard by 1,484. Even if we hit 100% reporting at some point tonight, both sides may head to recounts.

1:15am: Still waiting on more numbers, but here’s an interesting bit of trivia: despite winning only 21% of the vote, it looks like Brady won 61 of the state’s 102 counties.

12:50am: Things are still stalled at 98% reporting in the governor’s race. Quinn’s up by about 5,000 on the Dem side, 50.3% to 49.7%. On the GOP side, it’s Brady has a 1,700 vote edge over Dillard, 20.6% to 20.4% (with McKenna in 3rd at 18.9%). Who would’ve ever thought Brady, who’d polled in fourth place for the most part, would pull it out? Looks like he consolidated the Downstate vote while everyone else tore each other apart in the Chicago metro area.

12:07am: It looks like Dillard should be able to pick up about 1,300 votes in the oustanding precincts (most of which are in Cook County). But that won’t be enough.

11:53pm: What a wild ride — with 97% in, Bill Brady is back up over Kirk Dillard by over 2100 votes. How many times did the lead for this race change hands tonight?

11:44pm: Over in IL-10, Julie Hamos has conceded to Dan Seals.

11:39pm: 96.3% in now, and Quinn has expanded his margin over the past few minutes to a bit under 5200 votes. With a lot of the outstanding precincts coming from Cook, Quinn looks like he’ll end up on top — but just barely. For the GOP, Dillard leads Brady by a cool grand.

11:30pm: Ethan Hastert has conceded to Randy Hultgren. Aaron Blake says Hastert has pledged to help Hultgren, unlike the helpful Oberweis/Lauzen debacle. Sigh.

11:25pm: The kids down at the SSP Labs Skunkworks have been furiously scribbling on the backs of envelopes. They tell us that if the remaining precincts follow existing trends, Quinn is likely to pick up about 2,000 more votes on Hynes.

11:20pm: 93.9% of the vote is now in, and Quinn leads by 0.6% (or 5,400 votes). The problem for Hynes is that half of the outstanding precincts are in Cook County — I’m not really sure if the outstanding votes downstate will give him enough juice to overcome that deficit.

11:10pm: With 93.1% now in, Quinn’s lead is now at 0.6%. For the GOP, Dillard has leap-frogged ahead of Brady by 2,200 votes.

11:07pm: Looks like Dan Seals has pulled out a squeaker in IL-10. With 99.2% of votes counted, he leads 22,267 to 21,605.

11:04pm: Note to Patrick Hughes and Adam Andrzejewski: The Illinois filing deadline for independent or third-party candidates is not until June 21st. You still have a second chance!

11:01pm: 91.3% of the vote is now in, and Quinn still leads by 0.8%. Note that the slightly Quinn-friendly DuPage County is now 86.5% in, and 8.3% of the vote is left uncounted in the more Quinn-friendly Cook.

10:56pm: For the GOP, Brady leads Dillard by about 3000 votes. (McKenna, in turn, trails Dillard by another 3000.)

10:54pm: With 87% in, Quinn’s lead over Hynes is down to 0.8%. DuPage is now half-in, and 9.6% of precincts are outstanding in the marginally Quinn-friendly Cook County.

10:53pm: Shira Toeplitz of Roll Call says that Hoffman has conceded.

10:51pm: Randy Hultgren seems to have this one sewn up – 54-46 lead with only 12% outstanding.

10:47pm: The Hill’s Aaron Blake says Beth Coulson has conceded IL-10 – Bob Dold! wins.

10:41pm: 82.6% of the vote is now in, and Quinn’s lead has been whittled down to 1.2%. For the GOP, Brady leads Dillard by almost 4000 votes.

10:36pm: With 81% of the vote in, Quinn holds stead at a 1.4% lead, but he’s only stemming the bleeding now that more votes are being counted in Cook (where just over 10% of the vote is outstanding). For the GOP, Brady now leads, and McKenna has slipped behind Dillard to third place. Plenty of time for that to flip around, though.

10:29pm: Photo finish? With 79% in, Quinn leads Hynes by 1.4%. For the GOP, McKenna, Brady, and Dillard are in a three-way race for the gube nod — the trio are separated by just 2000 votes.

10:23pm: They spark a fast joint in the 10th CD: Dan Seals is now up by almost 700 votes with just 2.5% remaining. And Randy Hultgren is now up 7 points.

10:22pm: Some more MN-Gov news: On the GOP side, Marty Seifert is cleaning up in the precinct caucuses, 55-34 over Tom Emmer. This will be hard for Emmer to claw his way back from… Seifert probably has to be seen as the favorite for the Republican nomination now.

10:20pm: 75% of the vote is now in, and Quinn’s lead inches down to 1.6%. And it looks like they’re taking a ganja break in IL-10.

10:17pm: 73% of the vote is now in, and Quinn leads Hynes by 1.8%. Alexi’s looking a lot more comfortable with a 4.2% lead.

10:12pm: More non-Illinois news: In Minnesota’s precinct-level caucuses, Margaret Anderson Kelliher and and RT Rybak have about 19% apiece. “Uncommitted” is in third with 14%.

10:08pm: 67% in, and Quinn’s lead has been cut down to 2.4%.

10:04pm: With 64% in (and 86% in Cook County), Quinn leads Hynes by 2.8%. Hynes is counting on the outstanding downstate votes to give him a win, but Quinn is also leading in the early DuPage county returns — and less than 10% of the vote has been counted there.

10:01pm: Sadly, in IL-03, Daniel Lipinski is winning his primary with about 77% of the vote. Not that anyone expected his unknown opponent to put up much of a fight. Still, Jorge Mujica is getting 22%… not much worse than the well-funded and somewhat-highly touted Mark Pera got in 2008 (26%).

9:56pm: It’s time for a new thread. Hultgren is up 52-48 over Hastert, with 40% reporting.

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RESULTS: Associated Press | Chicago Tribune | Sun-Times | Politico

Via Taegan Goddard comes some amazing, out-of-nowhere news:

Informed and reliable sources are telling Howey Politics Indiana that former U.S. Sen. Dan Coats will announce Wednesday he will challenge U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh.

The source, former aide Curt Smith of the Indiana Family Institute, said that Coats knows he has about two weeks to gather the 4,500 signatures – 500 per Congressional district – in two weeks.

Coats was up for re-election in 1998 when he decided to retire, citing the pressures of constant fundraising. Bayh went on that year to defeat former Fort Wayne Mayor Paul Helmke to reclaim his father’s Senate seat.

Coats was originally appointed to this seat when Dan Quayle was elected Vice President in 1988. (Coats was representing IN-04 at the time – Quayle’s old district.) He subsequently won a special election in 1990 for the final two years of Quayle’s term (beating Baron Hill, 54-46), and then won a full term in 1992 (defeating Joseph Hogsett by a much bigger 57-41 margin).

Coats is 66, but that’s not much older than the Senate median of 63. If this report is accurate and Coats does indeed jump in, this would count as a major get for Indiana Republicans.

9:57pm: Please join us in our new thread.

9:54pm: The Dem gov race is also tightening – Quinn is now up just 3.2% with 58% in.

9:53pm: Alexi’s lead is back down to 3.5% with 59% of the vote in – but is there any way for Hoffman to catch up?

9:50pm: IL-10 just got a lot tighter – Seals’ lead has shrunk to 48.1-46.5. But only 12% of precincts are left to count.

9:45pm: The GOP gov race is really, really tight. Andy McKenna is at 21.5, Kirk Dillard at 19.2, Jim Ryan at 17.2 and Bill Brady, also at 17.2 Adam Andrzejewski, the favorite of teabaggers and Lech Walesa, is all the way back in fifth place. My advice to him: Run as an independent this fall.

9:42pm: In non-Illinois news, Democrats have actually picked up an open seat in the Kentucky state House tonight, winning the seat that Republican Jimmy Higdon left behind after winning a special election to the state Senate. Nice score!

9:37pm: Quinn now leads by 4.6%, and Alexi by 4.3%.

9:35pm: Check out IL-14, where Randy Hultgren is ahead of Ethan Hastert by 51-49 with 9% in.

9:34pm: In IL-10, Seals now leads Hamos by 4.1% with 66% in. Bob Dold! leads by 9.

9:32pm: It looks like Alderman Toni Preckwinkle has won the Cook County Board Presidency.

9:31pm: Alexi is up by just 3.8% now, with 43% in. Quinn is up 5.

9:28pm: In the open-seat SoS Dem primary, it’s a dogfight between Miller and Krishnamoorthi – Miller is up 47-46.

9:25pm: In IL-10, Seals now leads Hamos by 5.3%, while Bob Dold! is cruising by over 8% with 54% in.

9:23pm: Quinn now leads by 5.6%, and Alexi is up by 4.2%. For the GOP, McKenna and Dillard are now both ahead of ex-AG Jim Ryan.

9:17pm: In IL-14, Ethan Hastert has a mere 51-49 lead over Randy Hultgren, with just 3% reporting. Brothers and sisters, let us all pray for a protracted, nasty recount.

9:15pm: In IL-11, Adam Kinzinger is cruising with 62% of the vote. Is that low? Is that high? You tell me.

9:13pm: In IL-08, Some Dude Joe Walsh leads the pack with 34% with about 42% of votes counted. The winner here gets the privilege of taking on Melissa Bean.

9:11pm: In IL-07, Danny Davis, who had vacillated between running for re-election and seeking the Cook County Board Presidency, is taking about two thirds of the vote. Not terrific for an incumbent, but the remainder is split between several candidates.

9:05pm: As for the gube race, Quinn leads Hynes by 6.8 points on the nose, while Alexi leads Hoffman by 4.5%. Hoffman has widened his lead in Lake County, but that’s more than offset by Giannoulias’ strong performance downstate. With almost 39% reporting in IL-10, Seals leads Hamos by 51.5-43.1. For the Republicans, Bob Dold! leads Coulson by about 10 points.

8:55pm: The thing is, it seems like most of the big names on tonight’s ballot call Chicago home… so it’s hard to say who, if anyone, ought to be cleaning up in the Windy City.

8:52pm: Dave Wasserman tweets that Hoffman is only up narrowly in Lake County, a place where he should have expected to do well, and suggests it’s a good sign for Alexi.

8:49pm: In IL-10, Dan Seals is up 51-44 over Julie Hamos with about 8% reporting. Bob Dold leads Elizabeth Coulson for the GOP nod, 38-30.

8:47pm: To no one’s surprise, Mark Kirk is running away with the GOP nomination. My advice to Patrick Hughes: Run as an independent this fall.

8:45pm: So with 16% of the vote in on the Dem side, Quinn has a narrow 53-47 lead. For the GOPers, Andy McKenna leads with 27%, while Ryan, Dillard and Andrzejewski are at 20, 19, and 17 respectively.

8:42pm: Politico has much quicker results. In the Senate race, it’s 37A-30H-26C, while Quinn is up 54-46 in the gov contest.

8:39pm: I don’t know why the AP is being so slow – Lake County has already counted a bunch of votes. FWIW, they have Hoffman and Hynes up.

8:27pm: Congrats to the folks in DeKalb County, who clock in with the first precinct (out of 11,215) of the night.

8:24pm: Pass the dutchie ‘pon the left hand side….

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Polls are now closed in Illinois, where we’ve got hot Democratic and Republican primaries up and down the ticket. (For a full review of the biggest races to watch, check out DavidNYC’s preview.) We’ll be using this thread to track the results as they come in.

RESULTS: Associated Press | Chicago Tribune | Sun-Times | Politico

While we’re sitting around waiting for polls to close in Illinois (closing time is 7 pm Central, meaning 8 pm Eastern and 5 pm Pacific), let’s turn the floor open to predictions for tonight. Can David Hoffman pull off the upset against Alexi Giannoulias in the Senate primary? Can Dan Hynes complete his late surge against Pat Quinn in the Democratic gubernatorial primary? Can any of the hapless Republicans in the gubernatorial primary crack 20% of the vote? What the heck is going to happen in the Cook County Board President race? To get your bearings on all these races and more (IL-08, IL-10, IL-11, IL-14), please check out DavidNYC‘s preview from this weekend.

Two other items of note tonight that you also might want to keep an eye on:

• There are also primaries in the special election in FL-19 to fill the vacancy left by Rep. Robert Wexler’s resignation, although they look devoid of drama. (Polls close at 8 pm Eastern.)

• Tonight is the first night of Minnesota’s byzantine party nominating process, starting with precinct-level caucusing. The process will wend its way through legislative district and county-level conventions, building its way up to statewide nominating conventions in April. Tonight’s caucus results, plus tonight’s informal straw polls in the governor’s race, should at least give some preliminary clues where we’re headed in Minnesota.