Swing State Project

From the Indy Star:

U.S. Rep. Steve Buyer will announce this morning he is not running for re-election.

Buyer will make his announcement at 11 a.m. at a news conference at University Hospital in Indianapolis. […]

Buyer has come under fire for a charitable scholarship organization he founded, The Frontier Foundation, which has raised money from groups and businesses with interests before the committees he serves on in Congress. The group has spent money on lavish golf outings, but so far has not given out any scholarships. Buyer has said he is waiting until the group had raised $1 million, in order to be self-sustaining.

This is at least a bit of a surprise to us — Buyer wasn’t on our open seat watch. Open seat fans shouldn’t expect too much fireworks from this race beyond the primary, though, as the district’s PVI is R+14. Bush won this district by 66-32 and 69-30 margins in 2000 and 2004, respectively, and McCain by 56-43 in ’08. That’s a pretty dramatic drop for the GOP, but they were up against the full onslaught of the Obama field campaign’s effort to squeeze out every possible Dem vote out in the Indianapolis ‘burbs.

(Hat-tip: Blue Indiana)

RaceTracker Wiki: IN-04

• AR-Sen: Despite the seemingly imminent entry of Rep. John Boozman into the GOP field in the Arkansas Senate race, soon-to-be-former-frontrunner state Sen. Gilbert Baker says he’s staying in the race. The alternative would be to run for Baker, who represents Little Rock suburbs, to run for the open seat in AR-02 instead – but there he’d face a tough primary against Beltway GOP favorite Tim Griffin, who’s already established a solid fundraising foothold. (Some of the seven dwarves in the GOP field, who seem concentrated in the state’s right-leaning northwest, may be interested in switching to Boozman’s open seat in AR-03, though.) And unbelievably, yet another Republican is interested in getting in the Senate race: former NFL player Jim Lindsey is readying for a bid. Lindsey is a real estate developer and former University of Arkansas trustee.

• AZ-Sen: Sarah Palin is still dancin’ with the one who brung her. She announced yesterday that she’ll appear on behalf of John McCain, who plucked her from near-obscurity and is now needs a favor of his own as he’s facing a primary challenge from the right from ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth. Needless to say, this provoked a lot of disappointment from her supporters among the teabagging set, who would prefer to see her stab McCain in the back and then field dress him.

• CO-Sen: With right-wingers filled with antipathy toward establishment choice ex-Lt. Gov. Jane Norton, there’s been a lot of casting about for an alternative. Weld County DA Ken Buck seems more and more like he’ll be that guy, as he’s been making common cause with the Paulists, who are now planning to pay for a statewide advertising campaign on Buck’s behalf. Meanwhile, on the Dem side, primary challenger Andrew Romanoff is trying to energize his sleepy campaign with a big hire – pollster Celinda Lake, whose previously sterling reputation got driven off a cliff with her handling of the Martha Coakley campaign.

• CT-Sen: There’s not much left to see for the 2010 race, but everyone’s thinking ahead to 2012, with the new rumor afoot that – with the Senate Kennedy-free for the first time in more than half a century – Ted Kennedy Jr. may run against Joe Lieberman in 2012. Lieberman himself is up to his usual asshattery, speculating out loud that he could conceive of becoming a Republican, and also saying that he might support Linda McMahon in the 2010 race… seeing as how Richard Blumenthal (tepidly) supported Lamont in the 2006 general while McMahon supported Lieberman. Apparently Lieberman learned his politics from watching the Godfather: it’s not business. Just personal. (Lieberman also seems to be a believer in leaving the cannoli, and taking the guns.)

• FL-Sen: In the wake of new polling showing him falling behind Marco Rubio in the GOP Senate primary, the questions are getting louder about whether Charlie Crist might consider running as an independent instead. He said no to that idea… but people are noticing he didn’t rule out switching parties altogether. With Crist appearing side-by-side with Barack Obama today in Florida (something he wouldn’t consider doing if he saw any hope in trying to compete with Rubio – who just got the endorsement of ur-conservative Steve Forbes — on conservative bona fides alone), could that actually be a consideration? If so, he’d need to switch parties by April 30.

• MA-Sen: There are a couple more retrospectives worth reading on Massachusetts, as people try to make sense of the mixed messages sent by exit polls (with one particularly intriguing tidbit: 52% of Scott Brown voters approved of Ted Kennedy’s performance). Mark Blumenthal also looks at the shift in polling over the last few weeks, wondering again about the differing results gotten by live interviewers vs. robocallers, while also pointing to questions of how much pollsters’ views of a race can actually change the overall momentum of the race (fundraising and perception-wise) and thus become a self-fulfilling prophecy. And get ready for the teabaggers’ week-long love affair to end very soon: Scott Brown (who apparently has some self-preservation instincts) just served notice on the GOP that he won’t always vote with them.

• ND-Sen: This isn’t going to make the teabaggers any happier: Gov. John Hoeven, now running for the Senate, joined the Democratic Party in 1996 (at a time when he was head of North Dakota’s state-owned bank), ditching them in 2000 for his gubernatorial run. With Hoeven already on their naughty list for his insufficiently anti-government stances, now he’s just going to get more wrath.

• NH-Sen: Former AG Kelly Ayotte is wielding an internal poll by the Tarrance Group that gives her a big edge in the GOP primary against her challengers. She leads Ovide Lamontagne, coming at her from the right, 43-11. Random rich guys Bill Binnie and Jim Bender clock in at 5 and 3 apiece. No general election numbers were released.

• NV-Sen: One more disastrous poll for Harry Reid, which came out from Research 2000 a few days ago. This poll closely echoed one from PPP a few weeks ago that tested alternative Democrats, and finds that only Las Vegas mayor Oscar Goodman beats the Republicans (while Rep. Shelly Berkley and SoS Ross Miller don’t fare much better than Reid). Unfortunately, this was all rendered moot a few days ago by Goodman’s announcement that he wasn’t going to run for either Governor or Senator. Reid loses 52-41 to Danny Tarkanian and 51-42 to Sue Lowden. Berkley loses 46-40 to Tarkanian and 45-40 to Lowden, while Miller loses 44-36 to Tarkanian and 43-37 to Lowden. Goodman beats Tarkanian 44-41 and Lowden 44-40. Rep. Dina Titus, facing a tough re-election of her own, doesn’t seem to think much of Reid’s chances anymore: she publicly said “Reid is done; he’s going to lose.”

• NY-Sen-B: One other Research 2000 poll to talk about: they looked at the Democratic primary in New York, and find about what everyone else has found. Kirsten Gillibrand leads ex-Rep. Harold Ford Jr. by a 41-27 margin (with 3 for Jonathan Tasini), looking solid but still with a ton of undecideds. This also exists merely at the level of rumor, but with the potential presence of Ford scrambling things for the ever-so-briefly-thought-to-be-safe Gillibrand, sources say that Democratic Rep. Steve Israel (who got dissuaded from a primary challenge) and Republican ex-Gov. George Pataki (who hasn’t sounded interested until now) are both giving the race a little more consideration.

• PA-Sen, PA-Gov (pdf): Franklin & Marshall’s previous polls in Pennsylvania have tended to have unusually high undecideds, suggesting that they don’t do any pushing of leaners at all – but this may have reached an all-time high with their new poll. Most notably, they find Allegeheny Co. Exec Dan Onorato completely dominating the Democratic gubernatorial primary… at 10% (more than doubling up on Jack Wagner, Joe Hoeffel, and Chris Doherty, all at 4)! They also find similarly low numbers in the Senate race, where Republican ex-Rep. Pat Toomey leads incumbent Dem Arlen Specter 45-31 and Rep. Joe Sestak 41-19 (?!?), and where Specter beats Sestak in the primary 30-13. (They didn’t do a general election poll in the Governor’s race, but find Republican AG Tom Corbett leading his remaining rival, state Rep. Sam Rohrer, 23-5 in the primary.)

• UT-Sen: The Mason-Dixon poll that gave us some (not so good) gubernatorial results also threw in some vague questions about the Senate race too. Incumbent Bob Bennett leads a Generic R in the primary, 46-27, and a Generic D 53-26 in the general. Nevertheless, Bennett drew yet another primary opponent, albeit someone seemingly of the Some Dude variety: local businessman Christopher Stout.

• WI-Sen: Wherever there’s a vacillating Republican needing convincing to get into a Senate race, there’s Rasmussen. (Whaddya wanna bet they have a Patty Murray/Dave Reichert poll in the field right now?) Contrary to PPP’s view of the race, Rasmussen finds ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson leading incumbent Dem Russ Feingold, 47-43. They find Feingold with a perplexingly low 47/48 approval.

• CT-Gov: Is ex-Rep. Chris Shays looking to get into the Governor’s race? Suddenly, it sounds like he’s at least thinking about it, saying he’d like to do it but not sure if it’s feasible. He’s currently in Washington as head of the Wartime Contracting Commission, meaning he’d need to re-establish his Connecticut residency, but given his long-time popularity in his district (which eventually got too blue for him to hold) he might have a leg up on the so-so GOPers already in the field.

• FL-Gov: Quinnipiac released the gubernatorial half of its Florida poll yesterday, finding that Republican AG Bill McCollum has a somewhat bigger lead on Democratic CFO Alex Sink, 41-31 (McCollum led 36-32 in October). Sink leads state Sen. Paula Dockery 35-29, but considering that McCollum leads Dockery 44-6 in the GOP primary, that configuration doesn’t seem likely.

• MI-Gov: Two guys who had been unlikely candidates for the Democratic nomination for Governor both announced they wouldn’t run. Rep. Bart Stupak is the big name to say “no,” which is good as far as the DCCC is concerned, as he’s needed to hold down the fort in his R+3 district. The other is Detroit Pistons head of basketball operations Joe Dumars, who probably realized he’d get pretty banged up out there without Bill Laimbeer to run interference for him. One other interesting rumor of who might run, though, is ex-Rep. Joe Schwarz, the GOP moderate who got bounced out in a 2006 Club for Growth-fueled primary by Tim Walberg. And get this… he’s talking about running as an independent. Could he actually peel off enough center-right votes for the Dems to salvage this race?

• NY-Gov: Research 2000’s New York poll also looked at the Democratic gubernatorial primary, finding AG Andrew Cuomo defeating incumbent David Paterson, 63-19. Paterson is laboring under 34/54 approvals. The GOP primary to see who gets flattened by Cuomo is looking pretty uneventful: Erie Co. Exec Chris Collins, who continued to express vague interest despite having gaffed his way out of contention several months ago, finally pulled the plug on his exploratory committee. That leaves ex-Rep. Rick Lazio as the only major GOPer in the race, to few people’s enthusiasm.

• TX-Gov: Looks like Gov. Rick Perry isn’t much of a fan of the librul media, or at least he realizes that his key demographics aren’t really the newspaper-reading types. He’s decided not to sit for editorial board interviews prior to their pre-primary endorsements.  

I want to thank everyone for voting on my January 25th diary.  I’ve received 28 votes (and counting), and without your help my current prediction model couldn’t have been created.  So thank you all for voting!

Results from my January 25th Diary as of January 28th, 2:15 pm EST:

Which past mid-term election is most similar to the 2010 mid-term election?

10 votes for 1982

9 votes for 1978

4 votes for 1966

2 votes for 1938

2 votes for 1994

1 vote for 1946

Interestingly, 1982 was the only mid-term election above where the sitting President was a Republican!  Not sure if this is significant, but would love to hear other opinions.

Creation of Tarheeman1993’s 2010 mid-term election model

I decided to base my formula on the results received from this survey.  Each vote gets treated in the same manner as the results for the respective past mid-term election.  At first glance, the model would look like:

2010 mid-term model predictor= (10/28)*(1982 mid-term election results) + (9/28)*(1978 mid-term election results) + (4/25)*(1966 mid-term election results) + (2/25)*(1938 mid-term election results) + (2/25)*(1994 mid-term election results) + (1/25)*1946 mid-term election results).

However, this in itself could be unreliable.  I first had to see what the weighted average of seats up for re-election that were held by the current President’s party before the mid-terms took place in each given year.  Note: except for 1982, the President in office for the respective year was a Democrat:

Seats up for re-election in past mid-term elections held by that President’s party on the given mid-term election:

Year      House          Senate

           Seats              Seats

1982        192               13  

1978        292               18

1966        295               20

1938        334               30

1994        258               22

1946        242               24

Using my model, the average # of seats can be computed as follows:

House avg=(10/28)*192 + (9/28)*292 +(4/28)*295+(2/28)*334 + (2/28)*258 + (1/28)*242=255.50 seats.  Currently the Dems will have 257 seats up for re-election, a difference of 1 1/2 seats!

Senate avg=(10/28)*13 + (9/28)*18 +(4/28)*20+(2/28)*30 + (2/28)*22 + (1/28)*24=17.86 seats.  Currently the Dems will have 18 seats up for re-election in the senate, a difference of .14 seats.

Since I was satisfied with the above results, I decided to look at the seats that were lost by the President’s party in each given mid-term election.  Here are the actual numbers of seats lost:

Year      House       Senate

           Seats           Seats

1982        27               0  

1978        15               3

1966        48               3

1938        72               7

1994        54               8

1946        55               12

Using my model, the average # of seats lost by the President’s party in the mid-term election (net) can be computed as follows:

House seats lost prediction=(10/28)*27 + (9/28)*15 +(4/28)*48 + (2/28)*72 + (2/28)*54 + (1/28)*55= 32.29 seats.  

Senate seats lost prediction=(10/28)*0 + (9/28)*3 +(4/28)*3 + (2/28)*7 + (2/28)*8 + (1/28)*12=2.89 seats.  

Obviously this model has flaws (specifically that I’m creating it and that I’m only asking fellow SSP members their opinion).  However, since the 2010 election is complex, I’m asking whether the end result, 32 seats lost in the House and 3 seats in the Senate is accurate.

Please vote on this survey and give me your feedback.  I’d appreciate it!

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (1/22-25, likely voters, no trendlines):

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 42

Mark Kirk (R): 34

Undecided: 24

Cheryle Jackson (D): 36

Mark Kirk (R): 38

Undecided: 26

David Hoffman (D): 36

Mark Kirk (R): 37

Undecided: 27

(MoE: ±3%)

Surprisingly nice numbers from PPP on the Senate general election, with Dem state treasurer Alexi Giannoulias putting up a sizable lead against Republican Rep. Mark Kirk, while Kirk barely beats the two other little-known Dems. Giannoulias has favorables of 31/19 (suggesting he’s been weathering the Broadway Bank brouhaha all right, although that may have gotten more amped up in the days since this sample was completed, reaching a climax with the consent order the Giannoulias family-owned bank signed with the FDIC on Tuesday) while Kirk is at 27/22. Jackson and Hoffman’s main problem, vis-a vis Kirk, seems to be their lower profiles, as their favorables are 16/17 and 16/11 respectively. One other amusing little tidbit: it may be good that Roland Burris isn’t attempting to stand for election; his approval is 14/60, the worst PPP has ever seen for a sitting Senator. (See also conspiracy‘s diary.)

PPP also has gubernatorial numbers from the same sample:

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 35

Jim Ryan (R): 42

Undecided: 24

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 36

Andy McKenna (R): 42

Undecided: 22

Dan Hynes (D): 40

Jim Ryan (R): 35

Undecided: 25

Dan Hynes (D): 38

Andy McKenna (R): 36

Undecided: 26

(MoE: ±3%)

It looks like Pat Quinn may have been fatally wounded by a combination of getting hammered by ads from both Democratic primary challenger Dan Hynes and potential Republican opponent Andy McKenna — as well as the general anti-incumbent tide these days — as his approvals have sunk to a dire 25/55. Quinn is also seen losing in November to both McKenna and Republican former AG Jim Ryan, while Hynes (the state’s Comptroller) squeaks by both of them, suggesting the problem here is Quinn more so than the Democratic brand. However, it’s looking likelier and likelier that Quinn doesn’t even make it out of the Democratic primary, as seen not only in PPP‘s previously reported primary numbers but also new primary numbers from Rasmussen (1/25, likely voters):

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 37

Dan Hynes (D): 43

Some other: 6

Not sure: 14

(MoE: ±6%)

I’d initially had my doubts about why Hynes would want to challenge a sitting Governor when there was an open Senate seat for the taking, but apparently he knew what he was doing — he knew what Quinn’s weaknesses were, how to hit them, and is peaking at the right time. I gotta wonder if Lisa Madigan is second-guessing herself these days for not wanting to take on Quinn when she had the chance.

UPDATE: Rasmussen also just came out with Democratic Senate primary numbers from the same sample, showing both of Giannoulias’s challengers topping the 20-percent mark.

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 31

David Hoffman (D): 23

Cheryle Jackson (D):  23

Some other: 9

Not sure: 24

(MoE: ±6%)

RaceTracker: IL-Sen | IL-Gov

Roxanne Conlin’s campaign for U.S. Senate released partial fundraising numbers yesterday, and they are impressive:

Total cash raised (Nov. 2 – Dec. 31):

$603,575.44

Cash on hand:

$502,832.84

Total individual donors:  1,649 (1,395 Iowans/85% Iowans)

Online supporters signed up:  Over 31,000

Donations $100 and under: 1,332

Donations $250 and under: 1,433

All of Conlin’s campaign contributions came from individual supporters, because she has pledged not to accept contributions from federal lobbyists or PACs. (I wouldn’t have advised her to take that stance, because there are PACs and lobbyists fighting for good things as well as those working against the public interest.) In any event, she has shown that she can raise enough money to staff and run a statewide campaign. Conlin is about a third of the way through a 99-county tour she began earlier this month.

I haven’t seen year-end fundraising numbers from Senator Chuck Grassley yet. At the end of the third quarter of 2009, he had more than $4.4 million cash on hand, so clearly he will still be way ahead in the money race. During the third quarter, when Grassley played a high-profile role in health care reform negotiations, he raised $864,622 total, of which $364,295 came from political action committees.

In other words, Conlin raised more from individual donors in two months than Grassley raised from individuals during the third quarter. That’s a strong pace, and it suggests a lot of Iowans are motivated to take the fight to Grassley. Conlin has already raised nearly five times as much as Democrat Art Small spent during his entire 2004 campaign against Iowa’s senior senator.

I don’t have new fundraising numbers from the other Democrats running against Grassley. Bob Krause raised $7,430 during the third quarter, ending with $3,493 on hand. Tom Fiegen raised $3,781 during the third quarter, ending with $519 on hand. I like many of the statements I’ve heard from Krause and Fiegen, but they have yet to show that they will be able to run a statewide campaign, and therefore appear to be extreme underdogs leading up to the Democratic primary in June. Neither Krause nor Fiegen seems likely to drop out of this race, however. On the contrary, Fiegen called on Conlin to quit the race last month, saying Republican attacks on her would divert attention from Grassley and the “needs of working families.” Yesterday Krause criticized one of Conlin’s tax credit proposals.

Grassley will be very tough to beat. His approval rating has fallen but is still above 50 percent, and he has set a goal of raising $9 million for this race. Even if Democrats don’t manage to defeat Grassley, giving him a spirited challenge is well worth the effort. Driving up turnout among Democrats whom Grassley has alienated can only help our candidates down-ticket.

UPDATE: Rasmussen conducted a one-day poll of this race on January 26. Grassley leads Conlin 59 to 31, Krause 59 to 26 and Fiegen 61 to 25 (margin of error 4.5 percent).

At last some good news! PPP finds State Treasurer and Democratic frontrunner Alexi Giannoulias leading GOP Congressman Mark Kirk 42-34.

http://publicpolicypolling.blo…

Interestingly, though Kirk edges indies 33-27, Alexi leads among moderates by 45-25. He also has slightly better favorables. I wonder if the airing of all the dirty laundry in the primary is helping get it out of the way.

Jackson and Hoffman trail but it is basically a statistical tie. Since Giannoulias has a clear lead in the recent primary polls this is probably academic.

For those of you who saw the State of the Union last night, you may remember Obama said he was heading to Florida today to talk about a high speed rail project that was starting today. Well, the addendum here is Gov. Crist, Republican candidate for US Senate, is appearing with The President at the ground breaking ceremony.

Crist took a political pounding for standing with Obama a year ago for promoting the stimulus project. It is now a year later and Crist is doing the same thing all over again. Crist has some political smarts, there would have to be a real reason for him making such a poor political move as he’s beginning to sink in his upcoming primary election. The New Republic is now asking openly if Crist is thinking about changing parties.

http://www.tnr.com/blog/jonath…

I went over to Crist’s website in mid-December (it has changed since then) and noticed there was not much in way of being a conservative with “Republican,” and “GOP” being nowhere to be found and “conservative” listed only once in reference to his fiscal policies (and really, who does NOT run as a “fiscal conservative” these days?).

There was also no issue page in December. There is one now and the issues listed seem rather . . . sensible. The only red flag I see, as a Democrat, is opposition to the Health Care reform bill.

So, what say the lot of ya? Is Crist about to bolt the GOP and join Team Blue?*

*I put my lot down in mid December and said he would join the Dems by Valentine’s Day, so I am a YES. May be a little later than Valentine’s Day, but I’m standing by my prediction.

Republicans didn’t seem to realize that Evan Bayh presented an attractive target until they pulled off their recent upset win in Massachusetts, but time is running out if they hope to find a more compelling name on the ballot than nutty ex-Rep. John Hostettler. With Mike Pence out of contention (and the rest of the state’s GOP House delegation being either deadwood or fuggin’ goofballs), it looks like Secretary of State Todd Rokita is next in the pecking order. And he’s considering it:

Indiana Secretary of State Todd Rokita (R) said Wednesday he is weighing a challenge to Sen. Evan Bayh (D).

“I continue to receive a lot of encouraging phone calls and emails from a diverse group of people,” Rokita said in a statement. “I certainly share Hoosiers’ concerns that we need real leadership in Washington – leadership that we simply aren’t getting today.”

Rokita’s statement also said he and his wife are preparing for the birth of their second son and that “we still think and pray about how we can best serve Indiana in the future – this great state that we love.”

He will have to make a decision quickly. The candidate filing deadline is Feb. 19, and Rokita would have to file a nomination petition signed by 4,500 registered voters, with at least 500 registered voters in each of the state’s nine Congressional districts.

The petitions are nothing — any halfway competent local organization could muster up 500 sigs per CD at the snap of its fingers, and I’m sure a statewide pol like Rokita could call in the chits needed to make it happen with ease. But Rokita will need to make up his mind quickly, lest the GOP be scrambling at the 11th hour to settle on a Plan C. (And you can bet that Hostettler has gotta be Plan Z.)

RaceTracker Wiki: IN-Sen

Looks like we may get our huckleberry:

Monday, after Beau Biden dropped his bomb on local and national Democrats who had been convinced he would run, [New Castle County Executive Chris] Coons started fielding calls from party luminaries, including Vice President Joe Biden and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, coaxing him to enter the race. Coons’ mother called to say she saw his name on MSNBC as a potential Senate hopeful.

The charm and pressure offensive appears to be paying dividends for the party that suddenly found itself with no candidate to run against Castle, one of the most popular politicians in Delaware history.

“I’m leaning toward running,” Coons said Tuesday, adding that he would announce his decision by early next week. “This all emerged very quickly.”

Rasmussen also has a poll out (1/25, likely voters, no trendlines):

Mike Castle (R): 56

Chris Coons (D): 27

Other: 5

Undecided: 13

(MoE: ±4.5%)

This is a far cry from R2K’s test in October, which showed Coons trailing by a much smaller 51-39 margin. A PPP poll from all the way back in March of 2009 had Castle up 56-21 over Coons in a hypothetical House race matchup, but I’d like to see something a lot fresher before coming to any conclusions.

(Hat-tip to Taegan on the Coons story.)