Rasmussen (1/11, likely voters, 1/4 in parentheses):

Martha Coakley (D): 49 (50)

Scott Brown (R): 47 (41)

Joe Kennedy (L): 3 (NA)

Not sure: 2 (7)

(MoE: ±3%)

Rasmussen finds a tightening Senate race, with a two-point lead for Democratic AG Martha Coakley over Republican state Sen. Scott Brown, as undecideds seem to have broken in his favor over the last week (where Coakley had a nine-point lead). Barack Obama still has a 57% approval in this poll, so Coakley’s continuing to have trouble sealing the deal with Democrats and D-leaning indies.

Taegan Goddard is also teasing news of the latest DSCC internal poll; the one from last week had a 14-point edge, but allegedly the most recent one taken this week has a 5-point lead for Coakley instead. So, the increased DSCC and DNC involvement that we discussed earlier in the digest isn’t being done out of an abundance of caution, but out of real concern over a narrowing gap.

RaceTracker Wiki: MA-Sen

• CA-Sen, CA-Gov: There have been rumors about this before that didn’t pan out, but based on the amount of chatter out there, it’s seeming very likely all of a sudden: ex-Rep. Tom Campbell sounds poised to drop his gubernatorial bid (where he’s been polling well, but is way financially outgunned) and move over to the Senate race. He sounds likely to announce this on Thursday, seeing as how he has said he will be appearing at a Los Angeles County GOP event then, but “not as a candidate for Governor.” Weirdly, this could wind up helping Assemblyman Chuck DeVore in the Senate primary, as Campbell was one of three ostensible moderates (with no right-winger) in the Governor’s race, but now Campbell and Carly Fiorina will be splitting the moderate vote in the Senate primary, potentially letting ultra-conservative DeVore crash the gate.

• FL-Sen: Marco Rubio has been winning his fair share of county GOP straw polls lately, but this one was more eagerly awaited than most, because it’s Charlie Crist’s home county. Rubio continues his winning streak, winning the straw poll in moderate-leaning Pinellas County (home of St. Petersburg) by a 106-54 margin.

• IL-Sen: This seems like a good get for David Hoffman, as he seeks to make up some ground on Alexi Giannoulias in the Senate primary: he got the Dem primary endorsements of both Chicago’s major papers, the Tribune and Sun-Times (although getting the endorsement of the more conservative and anti-machine Tribune doesn’t seem odd for Hoffman, given his reformist message). On the GOP side, Rep. Mark Kirk got an endorsement from one of his fellow moderates from the state delegation, downstate Rep. Timothy Johnson.

• MA-Sen: If you were thinking, in the wake of a couple good polls in Massachusetts, that it was safe to unbuckle your seatbelt and resume walking around the cabin, guess again. Republican state Sen. Scott Brown, taking a page from the Paulists, used the one-day “moneybomb” technique to good effect, raking in $1.1 million and basically ensuring he’ll be able to stay on the air up until Election Day. Brown has yet another TV spot up on the air, in response to Coakley’s first negative ad; Brown‘s firing back with the ol’ “tsk, tsk on you for going negative” approach. Between the contradictory polls, Brown’s fundraising, and other signs of life (like a Boston Herald endorsement for Brown – although that’s not a surprise from the conservative Herald), the Beltway Dems have decided to leave nothing to chance, and are getting more involved, as the DNC is sending in some ground troops, and the DSCC is ponying up for $567K for more ad time for Coakley – meaning, in its own way, that the GOP already won a moral victory here by getting the DSCC to pry open its checkbook.

• NH-Sen: I don’t know if anyone really cares one lick about what former Vice-President Dan Quayle is up to these days, but he popped up long enough to endorse Ovide Lamontagne in the GOP Senate primary in New Hampshire. Meanwhile, wealthy businessman Bill Binnie is tapping his own personal money to get a head start on the ad wars in the NH primary, with an introductory bio spot.

• NV-Sen: For a while there, it was looking like Harry Reid was even starting to have some trouble within his caucus, as Russ Feingold publicly criticized Reid yesterday over his insensitive language regarding Barack Obama, wondering out loud if he should continue as Majority Leader. Feingold dialed it back a little today, though, saying that he supports Reid staying on it that role. With Chris Cillizza today joining many other pundits in wondering if the fork is ready to be stuck in Reid, there comes word (buried in a longer Politico story), via anonymous sources, of a “a whisper campaign in Nevada that it would be possible for him to step aside and find someone else who could win.”

• NY-Sen-B: Ex-Rep. Harold Ford Jr. is beating the Senate drum a little louder today, saying in a New York Post (interesting choice of venue) that he’s “strongly considering” the race. In an interview with Chris Mathews, he also had his version of the “Ich bin ein Berliner” moment, enunciating that “I am a New Yorker, I am a New Yorker.” (Although I believe, in the local dialect, that’s pronounced “Hey! I’m a fuggin’ New Yorker here already, now step off!”)

• MA-Gov (pdf): Hot on the heels of the MA-Gov poll from the Boston Globe comes another one from PPP, part of its MA-Sen sample. Their sample finds incumbent Dem Deval Patrick in slightly worse position than the Globe (with an awful 22/59 approval), although he’s still in the lead. Interestingly, this poll also sees the Republicans in much better shape than the Globe did, as independent candidate Tim Cahill slouches into third place here. Patrick leads GOPer Charlie Baker and Cahill 29-27-21, while in a Patrick/Cahill/Christy Mihos three-way, Cahill moves into second with a 28-25-21 outcome. (This certainly points to the composition difference between the PPP sample, which may have overweighted Republicans, and the Globe/UNH sample, which may have overweighted Democrats. The Senate special election results may give us a clue which of these MA-Gov polls is closer.) PPP also tested Democratic SoS William Galvin as a replacement for Patrick, finding little difference, with a 26-26-18 race among Galvin, Baker, and Cahill, and a 26-22-20 race among Galvin, Cahill, and Mihos.

• MN-Gov: The Republican field in the Minnesota governor’s race may actually be dwindling down into the single digits, as things sort themselves out. Former Auditor Pat Anderson is dropping her gubernatorial bid, and instead is looking at a return to her old job. She’ll be running against Democratic incumbent Rebecca Otto, who unseated Anderson in 2006.

• RI-Gov: Things are getting pretty dire for the Reupblicans in Rhode Island, where former Cranston mayor (and 2006 Senate primary candidate) Stephen Laffey decided for the second time that he isn’t going to run for Governor. With businessman Rory Smith’s dropout, the GOP still has nobody here, although salvation may be coming in the form of current Gov. Don Carcieri’s communications director, John Robitaille, who is filling the gap by filing as a candidate. (Robitaille’s only political experience is losing a state Rep. race in 2006.) Meanwhile, Josh Goodman has been wondering if independent candidate Lincoln Chafee, while a former Republican, might actually run to the left of the Democrat in this race (telegraphed by his statements on possible tax hikes). A local consultant tells Goodman that Chafee may in fact get labor backing on the race, perhaps depending on which Dem Chafee faces. (Chafee might get labor support if he’s against Treasurer Frank Caprio, although the more liberal AG Patrick Lynch would probably have a lock on labor support if he survives the Dem primary.)

• LA-02: The prospect is lessening for a free-for-all Democratic primary in New Orleans for what’s likely to be an easy race to defeat GOP incumbent Rep. Joe Cao. State Rep. Cedric Richmond seems to be locking down establishment support as a consensus candidate here, and that was underscored by an endorsement from former Sen. John Breaux. Fellow state Rep. Juan LaFonta is still in the primary, but state Rep. Karen Carter Peterson (who took Bill Jefferson to a runoff in 2006) is running for state Senate instead of LA-02, and none of Richmond’s 2008 primary opponents seem to be getting in the race.

• PA-06: After earlier vows that he wouldn’t get out the GOP primary in the 6th despite the re-entry of incumbent Rep. Jim Gerlach, yesterday state Rep. Curt Schroder saw the fundraising-related handwriting on the wall and got out of the race. With former Revenue Secretary Howard Cohen and Lower Merion Twp. Commissioner Scott Zelov already having stood down, that leaves only self-funder Steven Welch and several some-dudes in Gerlach’s way.  

• RI-01: Maybe he’s been comparing notes with Jim Traficant on how to restart your political career after spending several years in prison. Republican former Providence mayor Buddy Cianci, fresh off of four and a half years in jail over criminal acts while mayor, is now considering a challenge to Rep. Patrick Kennedy.

• VA-09: Despite having dodged a bullet with state Del. Terry Kilgore deciding against a run, Rep. Rick Boucher may still have to avoid some incoming fire in November. The state House’s majority leader, Morgan Griffith, said he’s “considering” the race and may get in if someone stronger doesn’t. (Since the only other person who’s probably stronger is state Sen. William Wampler Jr., and it doesn’t sound like he’ll run in the 9th, as he’s probably banking on a Republican takeover of the state Senate soon, in which case he’d become Finance chair, it may in fact fall to Griffith.) Griffith does have one slight problem: he doesn’t live in the 9th, although he’s apparently within walking distance of the district lines.

• FL-CFO: Florida Democrats finally found a CFO candidate to help round out their slate of candidates: former state Rep. Loranne Ausley, who decided on a CFO run and ended her state Senate bid. The bigger implication is that state Sen. Al Lawson – who’s flirted off and on with a CFO bid – is probably staying for good in the FL-02 primary now. (Interestingly, Ausley, like Lawson, hails from the Tallahassee area.)

• OH-Auditor: Buzz in Ohio is that incumbent Mary Taylor (the only statewide Republican right now) is going to drop a bid for another term as Auditor and run as John Kasich’s running mate for Lt. Governor instead. This probably strengthens Kasich’s bid against incumbent Dem Ted Strickland… but an open Auditor seat is also good news for the Dems, as Hamilton Co. Commissioner David Pepper was already running a strong race against Taylor. Remember that the Auditor is one of the seats on Ohio’s state legislative redistricting board, so an Auditor pickup would compensate there for a loss at Governor or SoS (but not both).

• MT-St. Sen.: The Missoulian has a very early look at prospects in the state legislature in Montana. Because of the open seat situation in the Senate, Democrats might have a shot at retaking that body (the GOP controls 27-23). Of the 25 seats up this year, 16 are held by Republicans and 9 by Democrats, with a total of 15 of the 25 being open seats.

• VA-St. Sen.: Two special elections are on tap for tonight, one of which is very interesting. The 37th, a swingy area in suburban Fairfax County, was left vacant by new Republican AG Ken Cuccinelli; it’s being contested by Democratic Del. Dave Marsden and Republican former Fairfax Co. School Board member Steve Hunt. There are echoes of the gubernatorial race here, as Marsden is running a moderate-enough campaign that he may be at risk of losing the base’s interest, while Hunt is trying to downplay controversial social conservative remarks from his past. Hunt has an internal poll showing him up, and Dem enthusiasm may still be down thanks to the post-Creigh Deeds hangover, so the GOP seems poised to eke this one out, helping them to keep holding the Dems to a narrow 21-19 edge in the Senate. The other race is in the solid-red 8th in Virginia Beach, where GOP businessman Jeff McWaters should have little problem beating Democratic Bill Fleming to replace Republican Ken Stolle, who just became Virginia Beach Sheriff.

• NRCC: The NRCC bumped up four more challengers in their “Young Guns” framework today, most prominently a move to “Contender” (the 2nd of three tiers) for Jim Renacci, challenging Rep. John Boccieri in OH-16. Also entering at the lowest level (“On the Radar”) are former FBI agent Mike Grimm, running in NY-13, state Sen. Dan Debicella, running in CT-04, and state Rep. John Loughlin, running in RI-01 against Rep. Patrick Kennedy. That last entry may seem like the longest of long shots; it may in fact be more of a deterrent by the NRCC to keep Buddy Cianci (see above) from running here, and the accompanying bad PR that would go with that.

• Redistricting: Martin Frost’s former CoS, Matt Angle, is the center of Democratic efforts to un-gerrymander Texas’s House map after the 2010 census. Roll Call looks in depth at how he’s built a complex fundraising network that’s primarily aimed at Democratic gains in the state House (where they are down only 77-73), so Dems can get a better share of the four seats Texas is expected to add.

• Grant money: People with a professional interest in studying Congress might want to apply for research grants available from the Dirksen Congressional Center. It sounds particularly oriented toward graduate students and fellows, but I’m sure some of SSP’s readership fits that bill.

Living in Scott Rasmussen’s world, as we do, it’s not every day that we get to see polls that don’t drip with utter doom ‘n’ gloom for Democrats. With that in mind, let’s take a look at PPP’s latest hit from North Carolina.

Public Policy Polling (1/9-11, likely voters):

Larry Kissell (D-inc): 54

Tim D’Annunzio (R): 38

Larry Kissell (D-inc): 55

Lou Huddleston (R): 37

Larry Kissell (D-inc): 53

Harold Johnson (R): 39

Larry Kissell (D-inc): 55

Hal Jordan (R): 39

Larry Kissell (D-inc): 53

Generic R: 39

(MoE: ±3.6%)

This is a district that has, more often than not in recent history, leaned Republican. Al Gore lost it by 46-54 in 2000, and Kerry by 45-54 in 2004. Obama finally changed that in 2008, winning the CD by 53-47. In a year with a GOP tilt, you’d expect there to be some significant Democratic drop-off from that margin, and PPP does indeed find a more GOP-friendly electorate: this sample split their votes by a 48-48 margin in the ’08 presidential race. Given the environment, I’d say that’s a level of decline that Kissell would be willing to deal with.

Granted, Kissell is up against some opponents with pretty scant name recognition, but his margin against “Generic R” and his 45-30 approval rating should give him some comfort. If the Republicans are going to take back the House, they’ll probably have to prioritize districts other than this one in order to get the job done.

RaceTracker Wiki: NC-08

Here’s the big news of the day: following shortly after some prodding on Friday from Barack Obama to run, Denver mayor John Hickenlooper appears to be ready to enter the Colorado Governor’s race for the Democrats.

“Hick is absolutely in,” said a political consultant who asked not to be named because they were not authorized to speak on the mayor’s behalf.

The sources said the announcement could come as early as this afternoon, as Hickenlooper wanted to enter the race before the opening of the Colorado Legislature Wednesday and in deference to Ritter’s State of the State address on Thursday.

The Denver Post’s article also cites Hickenlooper’s desire to “get out in front” of any announcement by former state House speaker Andrew Romanoff that he too might enter the now-open Governor’s race. The word yesterday was that Romanoff was “closer” to announcing than Hickenlooper, based on prodding from his own supporters to get out of his going-nowhere Senate primary bid against Michael Bennet. The question remains, now, though, whether Romanoff still gets in now that Hickenlooper got the drop on him… or if, as also rumored, Romanoff angles to get on board as Hickenlooper’s Lt. Governor? (That National Journal article also cites state Treasurer Cary Kennedy as a potential candidate, although that may have been more of a Plan B and doesn’t seem likely with Hickenlooper in now. Interstingly, it also said that Reps. Diana DeGette and Betsy Markey had considered it but were leaning against. The interest by DeGette, a long-time denizen of CO-01, shouldn’t be a surprise, but the interest of freshman Markey is… perhaps, sensing the difficulty of retaining CO-04, she’s casting about for an escape hatch.)

Also, yesterday, Democratic Rep. Ed Perlmutter said he wouldn’t run for Governor (perhaps he got a whiff of what was coming down the pike), and would stand for re-election in CO-07. On the GOP side in the 7th, things are definitely getting interesting in the primary between Aurora city councilor Ryan Frazier and former McCain campaign official Lang Sias. Frazier’s drop-down to CO-07 had initially seemed good for the GOP, but Sias (who has a lot of establishment backing) seemed to shake up the field. Now, Frazier’s wheeling out a big establishment endorsement of his own, from Virginia’s Rep. Eric Cantor.

UPDATE: Colorado’s GOP chair Dick Wadhams has already taken to calling Hickenlooper “Hickenritter” to handcuff him to the unpopular outgoing governor, but ColoradoPols has some nice quotes from Wadhams himself and ex-Rep. Bob Beauprez in which they publicly worried about Hickenlooper’s likely electoral dominance when it looked like he’d get appointed to the Senate vacancy that instead went to Bennet. Said Beauprez:

I’m guessing John Hickenlooper has name ID that rivals the governor’s, maybe exceeds the governor’s. I’m guessing that John Hickenlooper has 4:1 favorable/unfavorables statewide. There isn’t enough money in the world to peel that down to 1:1 – to where you could maybe beat him.

RaceTracker Wiki: CO-Gov | CO-07

Mason-Dixon for the Las Vegas Review-Journal (1/5-7, likely voters, 11/30-12/2 in parens):

Harry Reid (D-inc): 41 (42)

Danny Tarkanian (R): 49 (48)

Undecided: 10 (10)

Harry Reid (D-inc): 40 (41)

Sue Lowden (R): 50 (51)

Undecided: 10 (8)

Harry Reid (D-inc): 40 (NA)

Sharron Angle (R): 45 (NA)

Undecided: 15 (NA)

(MoE: ±4%)

Danny Tarkanian (R): 28 (24)

Sue Lowden (R): 26 (25)

Sharron Angle (R): 14 (13)

Mark Amodei (R): 1 (1)

Bill Parson (R): 0 (1)

Robin Titus (R): 0 (1)

Mike Wiley (R): 0 (1)

John Chachas (R): 0 (1)

Undecided: 32 (33)

(MoE: ±6%)

Purely numerically, things haven’t changed much in the Nevada Senate race, with only minor fluctuations in the general and primary (although that fluctuation does move Danny Tarkanian ahead of Sue Lowden). A new feature is a matchup between Harry Reid and right-wing ex-Assemblywoman Sharron Angle; even that turns up as a loss for Reid, although not by as big a margin.

These numbers, however, predate Harry Reid’s latest woes. The “stepping in it” of the title, of course, refers to allegations in the new book Game Change that Reid observed several years ago, in his best attempts to sound like a 19th-century linguistics professor, that Barack Obama lacked a “Negro dialect.” It looks like Reid may weather this particular storm — for instance, John Cornyn said that while he’d like Reid to resign, he doesn’t actually expect him to do so — but it can’t help when you’re in a difficult re-election fight if you have to put out fires like this and belabor talking points that reiterate that you’re staying on as majority leader. With stories and comments (Chuck Todd, Nate Silver) popping up more and more wondering if Reid has crossed the event horizon from which he can’t re-emerge from the black hole — much as Chris Dodd seemed to do last month — it’ll be interesting to watch his next series of moves.

The LVRJ reports gubernatorial numbers separately:

Jim Gibbons (R-inc): 23 (18)

Brian Sandoval (R): 39 (39)

Michael Montadon (R): 7 (6)

Undecided: 31 (37)

(MoE: ±6%)

Rory Reid (D): 31 (34)

Brian Sandoval (R): 53 (49)

Undecided: 16 (17)

Rory Reid (D): 43 (48)

Jim Gibbons (R-inc): 36 (34)

Undecided: 21 (18)

Rory Reid (D): 20 (24)

Brian Sandoval (R): 35 (32)

Oscar Goodman (I): 33 (35)

Undecided: 12 (9)

Rory Reid (D): 24 (25)

Jim Gibbons (R-inc): 21 (25)

Oscar Goodman (I): 41 (38)

Undecided: 14 (12)

(MoE: ±4%)

Things aren’t looking any better for Reid Jr., who seems to still be losing ground against Republican Brian Sandoval (although he still beats incumbent GOP governor Jim Gibbons in a two-way, perhaps the least popular man in a state chock-full of terribly unpopular politicians). Democratic Las Vegas mayor Oscar Goodman — who hasn’t made any official plans one way or another, but apparently would run as an independent if he ran — is competitive with Sandoval, although Sandoval noodges ahead in the three-way tossup.

RaceTracker Wiki: NV-Sen | NV-Gov

• Redistricting Contest: A reminder – if you haven’t sent in your .DRF.XML file to Jeff, please do so ASAP – jeffmd [at] swingstateproject [dot] com. Please be sure to include your SSP username and a link to your diary. Thanks! (D)

• AR-Sen: Alleged United States Senator Blanche Lincoln is whinging that actually doing her job in December cost her $300,000 in fundraising receipts. This is probably her way of saying her numbers will be lighter than expected this quarter. Why on earth would you go public with this, though? This is not exactly the kind of message you want to communicate to the public – or your opponents. (D)

• CA-Sen: A lot of Republicans seemed dismayed by Carla Fiorina’s suggestions a few months ago that she wasn’t going to be dipping into her personal money in order to fund her Senate bid – I mean, that was the whole point of her running, wasn’t it? At any rate, she’s just reversed course, with her latest finance report, which reveals that she loaned her campaign $2.5 million. Having burned through most of her outside donations, that leaves her with $2.7 million on hand.

• FL-Sen, FL-Gov: Charlie Crist’s message discipline seems to be gotten completely unglued, as he searches for the just-right pitch that’s moderate enough and yet conservative enough. Today, he’s acknowledging support for the stimulus package and “being nice” to Barack Obama, and not apologizing for either one. Meanwhile, there’s still that persistent rumor out there involving Crist bailing on the Senate race and going back to another term as Governor. That’s not happening if GOP AG Bill McCollum has anything to say about it; he says he won’t stand down for Crist.

• MA-Sen: Everyone’s still milling around waiting for that rumored close Boston Herald poll, but in the meantime, a new Democratic internal poll floated to the surface this morning, and it seems to give some credence to that Boston Globe/UNH poll that gave a solid 15-point margin to Democratic AG Martha Coakley. The internal, conducted by Mark Mellman’s firm, gives Coakley a 50-36 lead over Republican state Sen. Scott Brown, with Libertarian candidate Joe Kennedy (no relation to the Kennedy clan) pulling in a surprisingly-high 6 (which may be coming out of Brown’s share). If Brown has internals showing the race a dead heat like he claims, now would be the time for him to lay them on the table. Also today comes word that Barack Obama has no plans to campaign for Coakley, although I don’t know whether to interpret that as a sign of Democratic confidence, or of Obama not wanting to risk political capital on something that’s less than a slam dunk.

• ND-Sen: Gov. John Hoeven had said he needed a few weeks to get some stuff out of the way before saying anything official about the Senate race, but it looks like the stuff was more easily cleared away than anticipated: he’s now expected to announce his candidacy at an appearance at a GOP district convention in Bismarck tonight.  

• NY-Sen-B: Republican Rep. Peter King announced, for something like the third or fourth time, that he is no longer considering running for the Senate, and instead will run for another term in NY-03. Stay tuned for next month, when King will at some point remember that he hasn’t been on cable news for a while and will reveal that he’s considering a run for the Senate. Meanwhile, the political establishment is continuing to take seriously the possibility of a Harold Ford Jr. primary challenge to Kirsten Gillibrand, going all the way up to the White House, which today confirmed that it will back Gillibrand over Ford. Ford, meanwhile, is doing some serious remodeling of his image to better comport with New York codes: he’s now done a complete 180 on gay marriage, which he’s now for, and on abortion, where he claims that when he said he was pro-life, it was to “take back” the term from its right-wing appropriators. Finally, the Republicans will have to look elsewhere than ex-Rep. Susan Molinari for their nominee; after a brief flirtation, Molinari (who’s making big money consulting and probably doesn’t want the pay cut) just declined.

• UT-Sen: This should come as no surprise, but the NRSC, tasked with defending incumbents, confirmed that it’s supporting Bob Bennett in his re-election bid against several right-wing primary challengers. The Club for Growth has painted a bullseye on Bennett’s back, although they haven’t settled on which challenger to support.

• CO-Gov: Denver mayor John Hickenlooper hasn’t leaped as quickly into the Governor’s race (following the withdrawal of Bill Ritter and demurral of Ken Salazar) as many had expected; he’s saying he’ll make a decision within the next five days, so stay tuned. Former House speaker Andrew Romanoff, currently an invisible presence in the Senate primary, has also been consulting with Democratic officials about getting in, although it sounds like he’d do so only if Hickenlooper didn’t. Another rumor getting bandied about: Romanoff joining forces and running as Hickenlooper’s Lt. Gov. candidate; at any rate, it sounds like Romanoff is looking for an exit from the Senate race. Hickenlooper’s decision may get helped along by a certain Barack Obama, who apparently called Hickenlooper to encourage him to get into the race (Hickenlooper says that doesn’t change his decision, though).

• KS-Gov: Kansas Democrats are getting way, way down the totem pole as they look for a gubernatorial candidate, with Tom Wiggans’ recent withdrawal. Board of Regents chair Jill Docking, whose name frequently appears as Democrats’ Plan B in a variety of races, said she won’t run, and now the fickle finger seems to be pointing at Lawrence-area state Sen. Marci Francisco. (H/t Campaign Diaries.)

• MA-Gov: The Boston Globe/UNH poll of the Senate race also asked about 2010’s gubernatorial race, and it’s more confirmation for the apparent trend that Dem incumbent Deval Patrick seems bolstered by the presence of state Treasurer Tim Cahill’s independent bid (despite Patrick’s 39/50 favorables and Cahill’s 39/15). Rather than Cahill dominating the middle, as he may have expected, instead he just winds up splitting the anti-Patrick vote, leaving the race’s GOPers a distant third. A Patrick/Cahill/Charlie Baker ballot plays out 30-23-19, while Patrick/Cahill/Christy Mihos is a similar 32-23-19.

• CA-11: The GOP hasn’t quite found a top-tier candidate to take on Democratic Rep. Jerry McNerney, the only Golden State Dem who’s even remotely vulnerable. But they might get something of an upgrade with the newly-announced candidacy of David Harmer, the Republican attorney who acquitted himself fairly well in the special election last year in much bluer CA-10. He can bring residual name rec and fundraising connections to the race, and one of the race’s lesser lights, former San Jose city councilor Larry Pegram, is already moving to get out of the race. Still, Harmer doesn’t live in the district, and he exposes himself to the same carpetbagging charges he brought to his race against John Garamendi in the 10th.

• CA-19: Kevin McCarthy looks a little flaky after this whole incident: it was reported last Friday that the Bakersfield-area Republican was sticking with his earlier endorsement of state Sen. Jeff Denham in the 19th while admitting a bit of a man-crush on ex-Rep. Richard Pombo. But now the Fresno Bee is reporting that McCarthy has gone all the way, spurned Denham, and is now endorsing Pombo.

• HI-01: The local political establishment weighed in heavily on the side of state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa in the upcoming special election to replace resigning Rep. Neil Abercrombie. The decision of Sen. Daniel Akaka to endorse Hanabusa over his nemesis Ed Case should be no surprise, but this was accompanied by endorsements from the state’s other Senator, Daniel Inouye, and a variety of labor leaders as well. Case does have one endorsement which he’s touting in ads, though, from ex-Governor Ben Cayetano.

• NY-23: Doug Hoffman won’t have the GOP primary field to himself in the 23rd after all. He’ll face a fight with a fellow conservative, albeit more of a team player: Assemblyman Will Barclay, who passed on a run in the special election in the 23rd, says he’s begun exploring the general election race.

• OK-02: Rep. Dan Boren can always be counted on to say something douchey, and today’s no exception. He tells the Tulsa World (in an article titled “Boren: Democrats May Lose Congress”) that Dems are likely to lose seats in Congress, and that’s good news for Oklahoma and especially for him personally. “”In the 112th (Congress), I probably will have the most influence I have ever had, no matter who has the majority,” he says.

• TN-08: It remains to be seen how much of an impact this will have on the race to succeed retiring Dem Rep. John Tanner, but the Republican primary just shrunk by one: computer consultant Donn Janes has announced that he’s going to run instead as a Tea Party-aligned independent. (J)

• Mayors: That Rahm Emanuel-running-for-Chicago-mayor thing seemed to last a whole couple days. Emanuel yesterday praised Richard Daley and backed him for another term starting in 2011.

• Florida: For all the general black clouds hanging over the Democrats regarding 2010, there’s always a lot of nuts-and-bolts numbers that somehow still look favorable, such as party committee fundraising and registration numbers. In Florida, both are actually advantage Team Blue, as the state Democratic party is sitting on $2.6 million cash on hand, $1 million more than state Republicans. Democrats have also built up their registration advantage over Republicans in Florida, to a margin of more than 800,000.

• Tea Partiers: TPM has an interesting look at the civil war growing within the Tea Party movement, a microcosm of the larger civil war within the Republican party. Front and center today is the big teabaggers’ convention in Nashville (with Sarah Palin as keynoter), which is too expensive for many of the teabagging rank and file to attend, leading some to question whether there’s a usurpation of the movement by the Republicans’ Beltway professional class. Meanwhile, Think Progress has some new additions to its ongoing compendium of teabagger primary challenges to establishment GOPers.

SoonerPoll.com (1/2-5, likely voters):

Drew Edmondson (D): 39

Mary Fallin (R): 51

Jari Askins (D): 36

Mary Fallin (R): 52

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Primaries:

Drew Edmondson (D): 46

Jari Askins (D): 36

(MoE: ±5.4%)

Randy Brogdon (R): 16

Mary Fallin (R): 68

(MoE: ±6%)

These numbers are pretty close to the general picture we’ve seen so far: a Fallin internal from June had similar spreads, while PPP had Fallin up by spreads of 10 and 16 points. The interesting thing, though, is that Askins and Edmondson remain pretty well-liked; in fact, Edmondson’s favorable rating (51-31) is very close to Fallin’s (54-29). Askins is at a pretty decent 43-28. It almost makes you wonder if one of these two leading Democrats might consider running for re-election instead.

RaceTracker Wiki: OK-Gov

Edit: I just realized the deadline was of course Eastern standard time. Forgive the foolish Californian. At any rate, I did send my .drf.xml to Jeff in time, but even if I am too late this has been a lot of fun.

For my entry in New York redistricting contest, I decided to create a 27-1 map. I chose to eliminate Peter King and pack as many republicans as possible into Chris Lee’s 26th district.  

I expect all democrats to be reelected. Eliminating the old 3rd allowed me to move Nita Lowry’s district southwards, thereby opening up much of Westchester county to reinforce Hall and indirectly the other upstate districts. I aimed for 55% Obama (i.e. a PVI of D+2) for most of the vulnerable upstate districts. The most vulnerable incumbent is Bill Owens in the 23rd at 53% Obama. In general, I tried to keep incumbents in their main bases of support. Also, I was careful to make sure all incumbents’ homes were actually in their new districts.

I aimed for clean lines where possible; however, I had no compunction about obscene gerrymandering when necessary (e.g. Rochester). Some of the uglier districts where necessary to ensure VRA compliance (Nadia Velazquez’s). Also just for fun, I tried to keep all the NYC bridges within the same district.

All districts are within 1600 or about 0.2% of the average population and all but four are within 1000. Finally, I adjusted the district numbers to reflect the changes.

Now without further ado onto the districts.

Long Island

NY-01

Incumbent: Tim Bishop (D)

Population: 701,285

2008 Results: 54% Obama – 45% McCain

This district stays based in western Suffolk county including Bishop’s home in Southampton. I strengthened it from 51% Obama by grabbing some very blue parts of Islip in exchange for swingy parts of Brookhaven and solid red Smithtown.

NY-02

Incumbent: Steve Israel (D)

Population: 699,873

2008 Results: 54% Obama – 46% McCain

The 2nd stays based in western Suffolk county, including all of Israel’s home in Huntington. I had to weaken this district slightly to strengthen the 1st. I made up for this partly by sending a finger into true blue North Hempstead while moving GOP leaning parts of Babylon into McCarthy’s district.

NY-03

Incumbent: Carolyn McCarthy (D)

Population: 700,667

2008 Results: 56% Obama – 43% McCain

Formerly the 4th, this district takes in most of south eastern Nassau County, including most of McCarthy’s base in Hempstead.

NY-04

Incumbent: Gary Ackerman (D)

Population: 700,640

2008 Results: 55% Obama – 44% McCain

The remnants of Peter King’s district had to go somewhere, and this (formerly the 5th) is where much of it went. I moved the swingy parts of the old 3rd west of Hempstead here, while giving part of north Queens for balance. I also took in the blue parts of Glen Cove. This district drops a fair bit from its old D+12, but should stay blue.

New York City

Queens

NY-05

Incumbent: Gregory Meeks (D)

Population: 699,395

2008 Results: 74% Obama – 26% McCain

Formerly the 6th, this is probably my favorite district, simply because it royally screws Peter King. This stays based in southeast Queens, but stretches along the coast to take in the truly brutal parts of the old 3rd, including all of King’s hometown in Oyster Bay. At 50% African American, it stays VRA compliant and should be a cakewalk for Meeks.

NY-06

Incumbent: Anthony Weiner (D)

Population: 700,140

2008 Results: 61% Obama – 38% McCain

This district, formerly the 9th, is mostly unchanged. It is based in central and south western Queens, with a finger into republican parts of south Brooklyn.

NY-07

Incumbent: Joseph Crowley (D)

Population: 699,985

2008 Results: 72% Obama – 27% McCain

This district sheds its northern half in the Bronx, which instead goes to Nita Lowey. This is balanced out by the Queens part of Gary Ackerman’s old district.

Brooklyn

NY-08

Incumbent: Edolphus Townes (D)

Population: 700,681

2008 Results: 85% Obama – 15% McCain

Formerly the 10th, this district is still based eastern Brooklyn and still majority (56%) African American. I slightly extended the finger into south Brooklyn to take in some of the deep red areas.

NY-09

Incumbent: Nydia Velazquez (D)

Population: 700,803

2008 Results: 87% Obama – 12% McCain

Formerly the 12th, this VRA district continues to take in the majority Hispanic neighborhoods in northern Brooklyn, western Queens and lower Manhattan. In total the district is 51% Hispanic

NY-10

Incumbent: Yvette Clarke (D)

Population: 701,024

2008 Results: 86% Obama – 14% McCain

Formerly the 11th, this district stays deep blue with its 56% African American majority

NY-11

Incumbent: Michael McMahon (D)

Population: 699,849

2008 Results: 57% Obama – 43% McCain

Formerly the 13th, this district gets a big boost with the inclusion of the financial district and Batter Park in southern Manhattan. I also have a couple fingers into deep blue parts along the Brooklyn shore. The core of the district remains Staten Island however.

Manhattan

NY-12

Incumbent: Jerrold Nadler (D)

Population: 699,549

2008 Results: 71% Obama – 28% McCain

Formerly the 8th, this is probably the most gerrymandered district I have. As before it takes in most of the Lower West Side, wanders through lower Manhattan, the jumps across the Brooklyn Bridge to take in much of western Brooklyn

NY-13

Incumbent: Carolyn Maloney (D)

Population: 699,640

2008 Results: 80% Obama – 19% McCain

This districts stays based in eastern Manhatten then jumps accross the Queensboro Bridge and Long Expressway to take in north western Queens.

NY-14

Incumbent: Charlie Rangel (D)

Population: 701,118

2008 Results: 92% Obama – 7% McCain

Formerly the 15th, this district stays based in Harlem and the rest of northern Manhattan. At 44% Hispanic and 28% AA, this is still solidly majority minority.

Bronx

NY-15

Incumbent: Jose Serrano (D)

Population: 699,572

2008 Results: 95% Obama – 5% McCain

At 63% Hispanic, this is the Bronx area VRA district taking in the south west of the borough.

NY-16

Incumbent: Nita Lowey (D)

Population: 699,561

2008 Results: 67% Obama – 32% McCain

Formerly the 18th, this district stays based in New Rochelle, but moves to take in the Bronx parts of the 7th and red parts of Northern Nassau County.

NY-17

Incumbent: Eliot Engel (D)

Population: 699,626

2008 Results: 70% Obama – 29% McCain

This district stays based in the north west Bronx, then stretches along western Westchester to take in the blood red parts of Rockland county.

Upstate

NY-18

Incumbent: John Hall (D)

Population: 701,862

2008 Results: 58% Obama – 41% McCain

We now get to the second benefit of eliminating Peter King. Since a series of NYC districts moved south and west to fill in the old 3rd, I’m able to open up some bright blue parts of Westchester County. Hall’s district, formerly the 19th, now extends much further south, taking in White Plains, part of Yonkers, and Mount Vernon. For balance, I shed Orange county and south western Dutchess county.

NY-19

Incumbent: Maurice Hinchey (D)

Population: 700,165

2008 Results: 55% Obama – 44% McCain

Formerly the 22nd, this district gets the most radical redraw of any in the state. I shed the entire northern half of the district, using Binghamton and Ithaca to strengthen Acuri. Meanwhile, I extend the district south to take in Orange county and the blue parts of Rockland county. Most of Hinchey’s base in Ulster County is still in so she should still be able to hold onto it, but it will definitely won’t be cakewalk anymore.

NY-20

Incumbent: Scott Murphy (D)

Population: 700,715

2008 Results: 55% Obama – 44% McCain

The biggest change here is the addition of deep blue Troy and part of western Albany. Also I have added in Poughkeepsie and swingy parts of south western Dutchess County. I have given Washington county to the 23rd, along with a blue finger running down the west part of the district. This should be a little easier to hold.

NY-21

Incumbent: Paul Tonko (D)

Population: 700,770

2008 Results: 55% Obama – 43% McCain

This district is weakened slightly to help out Scott Murphy and to some extent Bill Owens. To make up for the loss of Troy and part of Albany I extend the district both north and south west. To the north I take in deep red Hamilton County along with GOP parts of Fulton, Saratoga, and Warren Counties. To the south west I take in swing parts of Greene and Sullivan Counties, red parts of Delaware county, and solid blue parts of north Ulster County.

NY-22

Incumbent: Mike Acuri (D)

Population: 700,450

2008 Results: 55% Obama – 44% McCain  

Formerly the 24th, this district gets a significant boost with the addition of Ithaca and Binghamton. I also shed the deep red area north of Rome. Finally to get sufficient population, I added in swingy Syracuse suburbs in south and western Onondaga County.

NY-23

Incumbent: Bill Owens (D)

Population: 701,668

2008 Results: 53% Obama – 45% McCain  

This remains our most vulnerable district in New York. Still I manage to make it a point bluer by shedding the deep red area north and west of Rome and extending the aforementioned finger down the eastern border.

NY-24

Incumbent: Eric Massa (D)

Population: 701,475

2008 Results: 55% Obama – 43% McCain  

Formerly the 29th, this district gets a significant boost from a large chunk of downtown Rochester. I also shed the deep red Western half of the district. Finally I sent out a finger going east to claim the rest of the swing parts of Maurice Hinchey’s old district

NY-25

Incumbent: Dan Maffei (D)

Population: 699,797

2008 Results: 55% Obama – 43% McCain  

This district also gets a bump from parts of Rochester. However, this is then canceled out by the very republican areas in and around northern Oneida County. The end result is a point more competitive, but Maffei should be able to hold it with his base in Syracuse

NY-26

Incumbent: Chris Lee (R)

Population: 700,240

2008 Results: 42% Obama – 57% McCain  

All the republicans in western New York had to go somewhere, so this is it. I added in the deep red western parts of Massa’s district along with any republican leaning areas in Erie and Chautauqa counties.  Meanwhile I moved in swing areas around Rochester or Buffalo into the 27th and 28th.

NY-27

Incumbent: Brian Higgins (D)

Population: 699,327

2008 Results: 57% Obama – 41% McCain  

This district is mostly unchanged, with a bit more of Higgins base in Buffalo. Should be an easy hold.

NY-28

Incumbent: Louise Slaughter (D)

Population: 699,260

2008 Results: 57% Obama – 41% McCain  

This district probably ties the 8th for most gerrymandered. Seriously, Congresswoman Slaughter please for all that is holy move to the other side of Rochester. As it is now this district is D+15. I wanted to share some of that wealth with Maffei and Massa. The result is a serious of fingers taking in all the swing or only lean blue suburbs of Rochester, with just the thinnest sliver running through the downtown area to connect her home. As before I then run along the shore of Lake Ontario to take in northern Buffalo. I realize this district is ugly, but then it already gets a bad rap as the “earmuffs.”

At any rate, that’s my crack at New York. I think that’s about as much as we can strengthen upstate without sacrificing one of our incumbents. If nothing else though, I am convinced we need to get rid of Peter King once and for all.

Full size maps are available at http://s862.photobucket.com/al…