Swing State Project

“Dede Scozzafava, the GOP nominee in a key upcoming House special election, is running dangerously low on campaign cash, according to several GOP sources familiar with her spending and fundraising.”

Interestingly the article goes on to say that the RNC has sent only two staffers and hasn’t contributed a cent to the race. Owens is outspending her 12-1. Even Hoffman has spent more. The NRCC is trying to make up the difference but even they have been overtaken by the DCCC.

“Despite a recent poll showing the GOP nominee with a 7-point lead over Owens, the spending disparity has many Republicans downbeat about her prospects.”

I have to say I’m surprised at this. You would think the RNC would be flooding cash into the district to try and get a clean sweep of all the big races on November 3. Politico suggests they are concentrating on the gubernatorial races but that seems dubious at best. Maybe they just don’t want her to win. I know I don’t.

http://www.politico.com/news/s…

UPDATE

The Rothenberg Political Report moves the race from Pure Toss-Up to Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic.

http://rothenbergpoliticalrepo…

Here’s a surprise:

U.S. Rep. Robert Wexler, who represents Broward and Palm Beach counties, plans to resign from Congress.

He plans to announce his plans at a news conference Wednesday at 10 a.m. in Boca Raton.,

A Democratic source with knowledge of Wexler’s plans said he is likely to take a public policy job that deals with the Middle East.

Democrats shouldn’t have to worry about holding Wexler’s seat — Obama won Wexler’s CD by a 65-34 margin in 2008, and John Kerry earned a similar margin four years earlier, so the real race to watch will be the Democratic primary. The St. Pete Times has identified a few potential Wexler successors:

You can bet every state lawmaker and city/county commission in spitting distance would consider jumping in since in a special election, anything can happen. Plus, local officials can run for a federal office without having to resign their current job. The names already being dropped are state Sen. Jeremy Ring, State Sen. Ted Deutch, West Palm Beach Mayor Lois Frankel and former Broward County Commissioner Ben Graber.

RaceTracker Wiki: FL-19

• AZ-Sen: Does the persistent rumor of a J.D. Hayworth primary challenge to John McCain boil down to nothing more than a Hayworth grudge against former key McCain aide Mark Salter (and thus a way for Hayworth to keep yanking McCain’s chain)? That’s what the Arizona Republic is proposing, pointing to a 2005 dust-up between Hayworth and Salter over immigration reform. Hayworth, for his part, says that “spite” would never fuel a primary bid.

• IL-Sen: GOP Rep. Mark Kirk is touting an internal poll taken for him by Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies that has him beating Democratic state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias in a Senate head-to-head, 42-35. It also shows Kirk in strong shape in the primary, leading developer Patrick Hughes (who seems to be cornering the wingnut vote) 61-3.

• KY-Sen: The allegedly third tape (although nobody seems to remember what the second one was) involving Lt. Gov. and Senate candidate Dan Mongiardo trashing his boss (and one of his few endorsers), Gov. Steve Beshear, has surfaced. This time, Mongiardo says people he talks to want to “yell” about Beshear and says, “It’s like being married to a whore.” This time it popped up directly on YouTube instead of on a Rand Paul fan blog.

• NV-Sen: Markos has an interesting observation, that may give some comfort to the Reid boys as they face an onslaught of bad polls. Democrats now have a registration edge of nearly 100,000 in Nevada, and it’s growing: since February, Dems have added 4,860 while the GOP has added 1,549. In fact, this sad performance puts the GOP fourth, as both nonpartisan registration and the right-wing Independent American Party gained more new registrants.

• PA-Sen (pdf): One more poll from Dane & Associates via GrassrootsPA, and it gives narrow edges to both Arlen Specter and Joe Sestak over Republican ex-Rep. Pat Toomey in the 2010 Senate race (46-43 for Specter and 43-38 for Sestak). Worth noting: this is only the second poll (after that freaky Rasmussen poll in August) that shows Sestak performing better against Toomey than does Specter.

• TX-Sen, Gov: Kay Bailey Hutchison may be getting some cold feet about committing to a resignation date from the Senate. In response to questions on a conservative radio talk show, it’s sounding like she’s unlikely to resign her seat by year’s end. However, she also doesn’t sound like she’ll stay in her seat all the way through to the gubernatorial primary election in March, saying “that’s not what [she wants] to do.” (Although it’s understandable she may want to keep her day job if the whole being-governor thing doesn’t work out.)

• NJ-Gov: PPP has its poll of the New Jersey gubernatorial race out, and like everyone else these days, they’re seeing it as pure tossup. Chris Christie leads Jon Corzine 40-39, with 13 for independent Chris Daggett. (It’s right in line with today’s Pollster.com average of 41-40 for Christie.)That’s tremendous progress for Corzine, who was down 44-35-13 last month. Also, it’s worth noting that not only is Corzine dragging Christie down to his level but he’s actually starting to improve his own favorables; he’s up to 37/55, still terrible but better than last month’s 32/60. The race will still depend on getting unlikely Dem voters to turn out; the likely voter pool went for Obama by only 4% last year, way off from the actual 15% margin. One last tidbit: the poll asks Daggett voters their second choice, and Christie wins that one 48-34 (suggesting that Daggett does more damage to Christie, but that Christie’s best hope is to peel off some of the vacillating Daggett supporters).

• VA-Gov: Not much change in Virginia, where Rasmussen finds a 50-43 lead for Republican Bob McDonnell in that gubernatorial race. (This is right in line with today’s Pollster.com average of 51-43.) Two weeks ago, Rasmussen found that McD led Creigh Deeds 51-42.

• FL-08: This seems kind of surprising, given freshman Rep. Alan Grayson’s over-the-top invitations to rumble (or who knows… maybe being aggressive actually works to cow Republicans?). After a lot of public vacillating, it turns out that Republican former state Sen. Daniel Webster, considered the strongest contender to go up against Grayson, won’t run. Rich guys Jerry Pierce and Armando Gutierrez Jr. are in the race, but the establishmenet Plan D (with Webster, state House speaker Larry Cretul, and Orange Co. Mayor Rich Crotty out) seems likely to fall to state Rep. Stephen Precourt, who expressed interest but said he’d defer to Webster.

• NC-11: Looks like businessman Jeff Miller declined for a good reason yesterday, as the GOP nailed down a stronger-sounding competitor to go up against Rep. Heath Shuler in the R+6 11th. Greg Newman, the mayor of Hendersonville (pop. 10,000 in 2000) since 2005, says he’ll take on Shuler.

• SC-05: State Sen. Mick Mulvaney looks ready to launch his candidacy, most likely on the 17th at a GOP gathering in the district. He’ll take on 27-year incumbent and House Budget chair John Spratt.

• TN-St. House: There’s a small House special election in Tennessee tonight, with big stakes. HD 62, located in rural south central Tennessee (its major town is Shelbyville) was vacated by a Democrat, Curt Cobb, who resigned to take a better-paying job; Cobb’s brother Ty is facing off against Republican Pat Marsh. It’s GOP leaning territory, though (this is part of the 6th CD, which had a very sharp Democratic falloff in 2008). The stakes are high because the Democrats hold the chamber by a 1-vote margin, 50-49, thanks only to a power-sharing arrangement with renegade Republican Kent Williams who serves as the Speaker elected with Democratic votes. A Republican victory here could give control of the House back to the GOP, if they’re able to reorganize in midterm. If the Republicans can control the state House and pick up the governor’s office in 2010, they’ll control the resdistricting trifecta.

• Mayors: One other election on the docket in Tennessee tonight Thursday: Shelby Co. Mayor A.C. Wharton is looking likely to become the new mayor in Memphis. Polling has him leading Mayor Pro Tem Myron Lowery by a wide margin. (There are 25 candidates in the race, including professional wrestler Jerry Lawler.) The mayoral job was vacated, of course, by long-time mayor Willie Herenton, who after several abortive attempts to resign in the past is leaving to challenge Rep. Steve Cohen in a primary.

I know this is not very realistic but I decided to go for a 7-4 Democratic plan. Democrats should control at least the State House but it would unlikely if they had total control of everything. Most Republicans would probably like most of the plan except that I weaken Frank Wolf from the 10th district. He claims to be a moderate but he is actually a Conservative. My other main priority was to strengthen all the Democratic incumbents. On a different note, this is the first time in awhile I have asked you which state I should do next. Here are the maps:

Here is a link to the current Congressional map of Virginia: http://www.nationalatlas.gov/a…

1st District (Blue) Robert Whitman (R)

Even if Republicans do not like the plan, they should be happy about this district. I removed all of Prince William County which is trending Democratic quickly. I also removed the slivers of Hampton and Newport News because Obama easily won those two areas. I also removed Caroline, Essex and King and Queen Counties because Obama barely won those counties and I wanted to put them in the 5th district. The new counties in the district were Hanover (which McCain won by 19,000 votes,) Orange and New Kent. The latter two are Republican. Even though the district looks rural, it is mostly concentrated on fast growing Republican suburbs. Stafford and Spotsylvania counties might be marginal in the 2012 presidential election as minorities and voters from D.C move there. Whitman should be safe here in a district where McCain probably won 56% of the vote, up from 51% under the old plan. The demographics are 15% Black (down from 18%) and 76% White. Status is Safe Republican.

2nd District Glenn Nye (D) Green

Nye barely won and Obama barely won the old district too. Even though Nye is a blue dog, a strong Republican could easily unseat him, especially in a year like 2010. So I added all of Hampton and Newport News to the district. Those two cities voted for Obama by a combined 51,000 votes. I may have overprotected Nye by creating a grotesque gerrymander including Black neighborhoods in Virginia Beach and White neighborhoods in Norfolk. The parts of Norfolk I included may not be heavily Democratic. I did at least remove Republican parts of Virginia Beach. Anyway, the district becomes heavily Democratic while the 3rd district is still majority Black. The only problem is that 3rd district Congressman Bobby Scott’s home is in the district. Since the 3rd contains most of his old territory, he could just run there and be safe. Obama probably won 61% of the vote here. The demographics are 34% Black, 5% Hispanic and 54% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

3rd District Bobby Scott (D) Purple

The district changes a bit and no longer jumps over the river. It loses all of Hampton and Newport News while scooping up every Black precinct on the southern bank of the James River. Most of the new precincts are from the current 4th district. Also, the 3rd drops Republican New Kent County while extending an arm into Hopewell which leans Democratic and Petersburg where Obama won 89% of the vote. Besides these changes, I added a few more precincts in Richmond City and Henrico County. I also added some in Chesterfield County which had high Black turnout but McCain still won it. Basically, all the new additions came in here so I could strengthen the 4th district. With these small changes, Scott should be safe. Obama probably won 75% of the vote here. Demographics are 55% Black and 36% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

4th District Randy Forbes (R) Red

I mentioned this map would be a gerrymander. I definitely made this district convoluted even though it is nothing compared to (you can probably figure that out.) Still, I kept in most of Chesapeake where Forbes lives. Since the 3rd district and the 5th took away all the heavily Black precincts, I sent this district west to take away Republican areas in the 5th and 9th districts. The district has a long string along the Virginia/North Carolina border to a clump of Republican counties formerly in the 5th and 9th districts. I see no reason for Forbes to complain unless he wanted a more compact district. Since I reduced the Black population from 33% to 20%, Forbes should be safe. McCain probably won 59% of the vote here. Demographics are 20% Black and 72% White. Status is Safe Republican.

5th District Tom Perrillio (D) Yellow

First, I am sorry about this extremely convoluted gerrymander that should not be on this map. I do not see Republicans objecting to it because it helps shore up possibly endangered incumbents such as Whitman, Forbes and Cantor. The district’s new changes include a finger into the old 1st district to take some Democratic areas. The district then goes toward Richmond. The last major change was extending the district up to Rappahannock County which is 83% White but Democratic Senator Jim Webb still carried it in 2006. What is amazing is that Black percentage remains stagnant. The areas the district picks up such as Harrisonburg in the Shenandoah Valley are filled with white Democrats. Perrillio should face a major challenge in 2010 but if he survives, this plan will protect him. Obama probably won 54% of the vote here. Demographics are 23% Black and 69% White. Status is Likely Democrat.

6th District Bob Goodlatte (R) Teal

This district stays mostly the same in area. Goodlatte keeps the Shenandoah Valley and loses Democratic areas in it such as Harrisonburg and part of Roanoke. Just to shake him up, I took his home out but since this district contains most of his old territory, he would probably pick it. I gave him some Republican counties in the current 9th district. The biggest change I made was moving this district closer to D.C. I gave him most of Fauquier County which used to be in the 1st district. I even gave him a slice of Prince William County. D.C politicians might complain but Goodlatte will not. The area I gave him is pretty Republican. The only problem I see for him is that Deeds might take a run at this district if he loses the gubernatorial election. The 6th district contains most of his old State Senate district. He could run it close but would probably lose by about ten points because I do not see Republicans in the northern part of the district backing Deeds. I will give Deeds a better chance if he performs extremely well in rural areas during the gubernatorial election. In other cases, Goodlatte should be safe. McCain probably won 62% of the vote here. Demographics are 5% Black and 89% White, the whitest district in Virginia. Status is Likely Republican if Deeds runs, Safe Republican if Deeds does not.

7th district Eric Cantor (R) Gray

Unlike Goodlatte, Cantor keeps his home in his district but the rest of his territory is switched. I split his old territory with the 1st and 5th districts. Most of his new territory was Republican parts of the 4th and the 5th. The reason I took Republican areas away from the 4th was for population purposes. I know this is gerrymandered but as long as he has a safe district, Republicans and Cantor should not complain. McCain probably won 55% of the vote here. Demographics are 17% Black and 74% White. Status is Safe Republican.

8th District Jim Moran (D) Purple (in the north)

I kept most of Arlington and all of Alexandria in the district. The main changes I made were taking out the thin corridor that heads to Reston in northwestern Fairfax County. I sent Moran’s district to western Fairfax County to take in some territory that is mixed. Obama probably pulled even in the western part but Arlington and Alexandria should save Moran from any trouble. The close in suburbs should help make this district heavily Democratic. Obama probably won 65% of the vote here. Demographics are 10% Black, 16% Hispanic, 14% Asian and 55% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

9th District Rick Boucher (D) Light Blue

This district mostly remained unchanged after most redistricting. I decided to change that. I put some heavily Republican counties into the 6th district. The only spot of worry is that I slipped in Roanoke which votes Democratic but Goodlatte lives there. Again, I am assuming Goodlatte would not want to risk a run against Boucher when Goodlatte could easily win the 6th. The Republicans may field someone else but that candidate would have a poor chance of beating Boucher. McCain probably won 56% of the vote here, down from 59% in the old district. Demographics are 8% Black and 86% White. Status is Safe/Likely Democrat.

10th District Frank Wolf (R) Pink

His district is 69% White so it appears unchanged at a first glance from its current form. Wolf’s problem is that many of those white voters are Liberals. His old district contained many white voters from the Conservative Shenandoah Valley. I will admit I did not give him much new territory. I did, however take out all of the Shenandoah Valley. The only Conservative areas are Clarke County and part of Fauquier County. I kept most of his old territory in the district with all of Loudon County and northern Fairfax County. He is probably entrenched there. Still, he should lose because I added Vienna, Reston, Falls Church and about half of Arlington. Those areas combined probably gave Obama a combined 40,000 vote margin. Also knowing that Wolf’s old territory he keeps voted for Obama, Wolf is in trouble. Brian Moran, Jim Moran’s brother might run here as a comeback after his failed Gubernatorial primary run earlier this year. With his brother’s support, Brian Moran would crush Wolf in Fairfax County and that should offset anything from Loudon County. Obama probably won 58% of the vote here. Demographics are 6% Black, 10% Hispanic, 12% Asian and 69% White. Status is Likely/Lean Democrat, depending on the challengers.

11th District Gerry Connelly (D) Light Green

This district shrank in size like the 10th due to large population gains. I sent this district to the Alexandria border and kept it out of the Republican western Prince William County. I also added Manassas and the surrounding area which Obama won. I cut out central Fairfax County due to population constraints. Another change was adding Democratic parts of Stafford County which Obama may turn blue in 2012. Overall, this district now easily protects Connelly. Obama probably won 60% of the vote here. Demographics are 17% Black, 17% Hispanic, 9% Asian and 52% White. Status is Safe Democrat.  

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With the 2008 American Community Survey data finally available broken down by congressional district, last week I started out by looking at how districts’ population had changed between the 2000 census and the 2008 estimate. Today, I’m delving a little deeper, looking at how the racial composition of the districts has changed.

Let’s start with the districts where the change in non-Hispanic whites has been the greatest. I’m starting with the greatest percentage loss in white population — and unlike the other charts I’m creating today, I’m extending this one to 25 spots and including presidential election data, because, for our purposes, this may be the most interesting and important chart. Not coincidentally, the districts that had the biggest percentage drops in non-Hispanic white population from 2000-2008 also had some of the most profound electoral shifts from 2000-2008.

If you were to look at the drop in white population in terms of raw numbers, though, you’d get a very different impression. The 10 districts that had the biggest drops are predominantly the Rust Belt white-majority urban districts that were on the list of overall biggest population losses, starting with MI-12 (from 540,548 whites to 458,036), followed by PA-14, OH-10, NJ-09, IN-07, IL-03, GA-13, TN-09, PA-01, and CA-13. GA-13 is the exception here, where there’s some outright white flight going on in a fast-growing district, as Atlanta’s southern exurbs turn into black-majority terrain.

Now let’s take a look at the districts with the biggest white gain, in percentage terms (this time in more abbreviated form):

We’ve cracked open our lead strongbox once again…

AR-Sen:

     Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): $1.2M raised; $4.13M CoH

DE-Sen:

     Mike Castle (R): <$58K raised; $853K CoH

FL-Sen:

     Kendrick Meek (D): $800K raised

LA-Sen:

     Charlie Melancon (D): $750K raised

NV-Sen:

     John Chachas (R): $1.4M raised (“more than” $1M of which came from Chachas’ own pockets)

CA-03:

     Ami Bera (D): >$288K raised

MN-06:

     Taryl Clark (D): $308K raised; $270K CoH

     Maureen Reed (D): $130K raised; >$300K CoH

OH-12:

     Pat Tiberi (R): >$300K raised; >$900K CoH

PA-03:

     Paul Huber (R): $100K raised; $100K CoH

PA-06:

     Steven Welch (R): $500K CoH

SC-02:

     Joe Wilson (R-inc): $2.7M

FL-Gov:

     Bill McCollum (R): $853K raised

• CO-Sen: Here’s an amateur-level mistake from the Bennet campaign: electioneering in the Denver public schools (where Michael Bennet used to be Supernintendo before being appointed Senator). The campaign sent mailings to a school asking for the principal’s support and fliers were given to principals at a district workshop.

• FL-Sen: The Kendrick Meek campaign is touting its own fishy poll that says that Meek leads Charlie Crist… among voters who know both of them. The lead is 45-43 for Meek among those 25% of the sample who know who the heck Meek is. In the larger sample, Crist is up 47-31.

• KS-Sen: Kansas Senate news three digests in a row? I’m as surprised as you are. Anyway, retired advertising executive and journalist Charles Schollenberger confirmed that he will run for the Senate. With seemingly no Dems higher up the totem pole interested in the race, Schollenberger may wind up carrying the flag.

• NC-Sen: It’s not quite confirmed, but the rumor mill is churning up stories that youthful former state Senator and Iraq vet Cal Cunningham is moving to formally jump into the North Carolina Senate race. SoS Elaine Marshall is already in the Democratic primary field.

• PA-Sen: There’s an unexpected fourth Democratic participant in the Senate primary all of a sudden: Doris Smith-Ribner, a recently retired Commonwealth Court (which apparently is one of two intermediate appellate courts in Pennsylvania; don’t ask me why there are two) judge for two decades. Her presence could prove nettlesome to Rep. Joe Sestak, by eating a bit into his share of liberal anti-Arlen Specter votes in what’s likely to be a close primary. (“Fourth,” you say? State Rep. Bill Kortz is running too, and has been for many months.)

• AZ-Gov: He was probably seeing the same terrible polls that everyone else was, and ex-Governor Fife Symington decided to put the kibbosh on a gubernatorial comeback. Instead, Symington endorsed not the current Governor, Jan Brewer, but one of her minor opponents, former state GOP chair John Munger.

• CA-Gov: Meg Whitman scored a victory of sorts with the publication of a story titled “Meg Whitman’s voting record not as bad as originally portrayed.” It turns out she was registered at several points in California in the 1980s and 1990s, but there’s still no indication that she actually voted during this period.

Meanwhile, Whitman’s primary rival ex-Rep. Tom Campbell may get a big leg up: rumors persist that he may get picked as California’s new Lt. Governor (once John Garamendi gets elected to CA-10). I’d initially thought that was a way of scraping him out of the gubernatorial primary and giving him a door prize, but it could give him a higher profile and bully pulpit to compensate for his vast financial disadvantage as he stays in the race. Campbell was Arnold Schwarzenegger’s Finance Director for a while, and they operate in the same centrist space, so maybe Ahnold would do him the favor? (Of course, he’d still have to survive confirmation by the Dem-controlled legislature, who might be reluctant to promote Campbell, who they rightly see as the most dangerous general election opponent.)

• FL-Gov: It had seemed like state Sen. Paula Dockery, who threatened repeatedly during the spring to run in the GOP gubernatorial primary, had faded back into the woodwork. However, she’s front and center again today, saying that she’s “leaning toward” running and giving herself a three-week timeline (she put off the decision because of her husband’s surgery this summer). Another minor embarrassment for her primary opponent, AG Bill McCollum: the co-chair of his campaign, former state GOP chair Alex Cardenas, had to explain that, no, he didn’t actually host a fundraiser for Democratic rival Alex Sink. (It was hosted by Democratic partners in Cardenas’s lobbying firm.)

• NJ-Gov: Jon Corzine and Chris Christie have sufficiently reduced each other’s statures that the state’s largest newspaper, the Newark Star-Ledger, took what may be an unprecedented step, and endorsed the independent candidate in the race: Chris Daggett. I still can’t see this giving Daggett the momentum to break 20%, but more Daggett votes are good, as they seem to come mostly out of the Christie column. Meanwhile, Chris Christie got an endorsement he may not especially want in the blue state of New Jersey — from the Family Research Council (who also just endorsed Conservative Doug Hoffman over Republican Dede Scozzafava in the NY-23 special election). Also, Christie is living large after getting an endorsement that may carry more weight, from the New Jersey Restaurant Association.

• VA-Gov (pdf): There’s one new poll of VA-Gov to report today: Mason-Dixon, and they come in with a 48-40 edge for Bob McDonnell over Creigh Deeds, closely tracking today’s Pollster.com average of 51-43. The poll finds Deeds getting only 81% of the African-American vote (with 9% to McD), far too little, especially in combination with what PPP‘s Tom Jensen is seeing, as he teases that he’s projecting abysmal black turnout of 12% in the coming election. At any rate, Deeds is now touting his underdog status in fundraising e-mails, and is alluding to more possible visits from Barack Obama in the stretch run.

• FL-20: Here’s an understatement: Republican candidate Robert Lowry, hoping to defeat Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz in this D+13 district, conceded it was a “mistake” to shoot at a target labeled “DWS” while at a Southeast Republican Club gathering at a gun range.

• MN-06: As state Sen. Tarryl Clark seems to be building a fundraising and labor endorsement edge, her primary opponent for the Democratic nomination, Maureen Reed, says she won’t follow traditional decorum and abide by the DFL endorsement. Reed (a former member of the Independence Party) says she’ll keep open the option of taking the fight all the way to the primary, a reversal of her position from months earlier (although from before Clark got into the race and Elwyn Tinklenberg left). (UPDATE: The Reed campaign writes in to say that the Minnesota Public Radio story that underpins this story is incorrect and that Reed never stated whether or not she would abide by the DFL endorsement.)

• NC-11: One reddish southern district where the Republicans are still at square one on recruitment is the 11th. Businessman Jeff Miller said that he won’t challenge sophomore Dem Heath Shuler.

• NY-15: As ethics allegations take a toll against long-time Rep. Charlie Rangel, he’s getting a primary challenge… from his former campaign director. Vince Morgan, now a banker, says “it’s time for a change.”

• OH-17: Republicans may have found someone to run in the 17th against Rep. Tim Ryan: businessman and Air Force vet Bill Johnson, who’s now exploring the race and will decide in December. Ryan probably isn’t too worried, as he’s won most of his races with over 75%, in this D+12 district.

• PA-04: Pennsylvania Western District US Attorney Mary Buchanan is reportedly considering running as a Republican against Dem sophomore Jason Altmire. (Hopefully she isn’t violating the Hatch Act too much while she considers it.) Buchanan was one of the USAs who weren’t fired in the Bush-era purge (in fact, she allegedly helped consult on the list of those who were fired). State House minority whip Mike Turzai has been reputed to be the GOP’s desired recruit here, but Buchanan’s flack says that Turzai is focused on winning back GOP control of the state House in 2010 instead.

• PA-11: Attorney and hedge fund manager Chris Paige is the first Republican to take on Paul Kanjorski (or Corey O’Brien, if Kanjorski goes down in the Dem primary). Still no word on whether Hazleton mayor Lou Barletta is interested in yet another whack at the race.

• Supreme Courts (pdf): News from two different state supreme court races? Sure, why not. In Pennyslvania, there’s another Dane & Associates poll out, of a hotly contested 2010 race for a state supreme court seat; Democrat Jack Panella leads Republican Joan Orie Melvin 38-35. Also, in Texas, Democrat Bill Moody, who came close to winning a seat in 2006 (better than any other Dem statewide candidate that year), will try again in 2010, and he has an interesting new campaign gimmick: he’s going to tour the state in a big orange blimp.

For those keeping track of House incumbents without declared challengers, it’s time to cross IA-01 and IA-05 off your list.

I learned from Sioux City Journal columnist Bret Hayworth that a Democrat has already filed Federal Election Commission paperwork to run against Representative Steve King in Iowa’s fifth Congressional district:

Mike Denklau has eyed the possibility of running in the strong Republican district since early 2009, and after traveling western Iowa recently he decided to go all-in.

On Oct. 15, Denklau will announce his candidacy 55 weeks out from the election in stops here in Sioux City, Council Bluffs and Des Moines. Denklau will turn 27 next month – he was raised in Blue Grass near Davenport and graduated from the University of Iowa with majors in political science and finance. He worked in New York for two banking firms through June 2009, including Lehman Brothers, until moving to Council Bluffs recently.

Hayworth notes that it’s not clear whether Rob Hubler, King’s 2008 opponent, will run again. Although Democrats cannot realistically hope to defeat King in a district with a partisan voter index of R+9, an energetic challenger may help drive up Democratic turnout across the district. There will be several competitive state legislative races in the 32 counties that make up IA-05.

Meanwhile, Craig Robinson reports at The Iowa Republican that Rod Blum of Dubuque is ready to challenge Representative Bruce Braley in the first Congressional district.

Blum has strong eastern Iowa roots. He graduated from Dubuque Senior High School in 1973, earned a bachelor’s degree from Loras College (Finance) in 1977, and received a Masters in Business Administration from Dubuque University in 1989. In 1989, Blum was one of the initial employees of Dubuque-based Eagle Point Software. In just five years, Eagle Point Software went public on NASDAQ and had 325 employees. In 2000, Digital Canal was created as a result of a leveraged buyout of Eagle Point Software. Digital Canal is a leading provider of home building and structural engineering software. Blum was also named the Iowa Entrepreneur of the Year in 1994.

While Blum has never run for elected office before, he has been making his political views known in eastern Iowa since 2001 as the Dubuque Telegraph Herald’s conservative columnist. Blum’s writings for the Telegraph Herald will be helpful for a couple of reasons. First, having a regular column in the local newspaper helps build credibility and name ID. Secondly, writing a political column means that he has well thought out positions on many of the issues facing our country today, something many first time candidates lack.

He’ll need more than conservative ideology and name ID in the Dubuque area to unseat Braley. Robinson notes that Republican Jim Nussle represented IA-01 before the 2006 election, but Nussle’s position as chairman of a House budget subcommittee helped him hang on in a Democratic-leaning district. That’s different from a Republican challenger trying to swim against the tide in a district with a partisan voting index of D+5. Republicans currently hold only two House disticts with that much of a Democratic lean: Delaware’s at-large seat, which the GOP will lose when Mike Castle runs for U.S. Senate next year, and Louisiana’s second district, which was a fluke in 2008 because of the Democratic incumbent’s apparent corruption.

Braley is a rising star and effective legislator with a spot on the House Energy and Commerce Committee. He won re-election with more than 64 percent of the vote in 2008. Even if 2010 turns out to be a Republican year, Braley’s not losing in a district with 35,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans.

To my knowledge, Republican Tom Latham (IA-04) is Iowa’s only incumbent in Congress with no likely challenger yet. Steve Rathje and probably Mariannette Miller-Meeks will run against Dave Loebsack in IA-02, while Dave Funk and Pat Bertroche are challenging Leonard Boswell in IA-03. I don’t expect either of those districts to be competitive in 2010.