NY-Gov: Obama Wants Paterson Gone; Paterson Ain’t Having Any of It

This is pretty remarkable:

President Obama and his political team is worried that Mr. Paterson cannot recover from his dismal political standing, and have signaled to him he should not run, two senior administration officials and a New York Democratic operative with direct knowledge of the situation said Saturday.

The move represents an extraordinary intervention into a state political race by the president, and is a delicate one, given that Mr. Paterson is one of only two African-American governors in the nation.

The decision to ask Mr. Paterson to step aside was proposed by political advisers to Mr. Obama, but approved by the president himself, one of the administration officials said.Top Democrats have grown increasingly worried that the governor’s unpopularity could drag down Democratic members of Congress in New York, as well as the Democratic-controlled Legislature, in next fall’s election.

But Paterson isn’t backing down in the face of what has to be unimaginable pressure:

“I have said time and time again that I am running for governor next year,” he said at the 40th annual African-American Day Parade.

This is now the second statewide race in New York this cycle where Obama’s tried to urge someone to drop out – remember, he personally phoned up Steve Israel and told him to back off a primary challenge to Kirsten Gillibrand. Yet even though I’m completely done with Paterson, this latest move makes me uncomfortable. For a sitting president to try to push an incumbent governor out of running for re-election seems like a bridge too far. So far as I know, even Dick Cheney didn’t try this (or at least, didn’t try this publicly) with loser GOP govs like Frank Murkowski (AK) and Ernie Feltcher (KY).

And where does it end? A lot of Democratic governors have crappy approval ratings these days, such as Deval Patrick, Jon Corzine and Bill Ritter. Obviously each race is different, but is everyone supposed to be on notice now? Is this what the 3 am phone call is going to turn out to be?

Don’t get me wrong – I’m firmly in the “Paterson should not run again” camp. I’m also not the kind of person to shed a tear about candidates who decide to drop out because they can’t hack it and then blame “the establishment.” But when the president gets involved, that just seems over-the-top to me, and in these particular circumstances, it seems completely unnecessary, too. If Andy Cuomo were to run, he’d obliterate Paterson, and, if need be, Rudy Giuliani as well. And our congressional candidates would have a very popular attorney general running for governor at the top of the ticket. So really, what’s going on here?

IA-Gov: New poll has mixed news for Culver, Branstad

The Sunday Des Moines Register published results from its latest Iowa poll. Selzer and Associates surveyed 803 Iowans between September 14 and 16 (click here and scroll down to read the questionnaire).  

50 percent of respondents approve of Democratic Governor Chet Culver’s performance, while 39 percent disapprove. The last Iowa poll for the Register, published in April, found Culver’s approval rating at 55 percent. Culver’s re-elect number continues to drop, which is a bit worrying. In this poll, only 28 percent of respondents said they would definitely vote to re-elect Culver, while 27 percent would consider an alternative and 21 percent would definitely vote for an alternative.

On the other hand, Culver’s approval numbers are still net positive, which isn’t bad given the state of the economy. The right direction/wrong track numbers in this poll are 48/41.

Survey USA has had Culver in net negative territory for most of the year, but it looks to me like that pollster has some kind of negative house effect. The only public polls showing Culver below 50 percent approval this year have been by Survey USA. The Register poll’s approval numbers for Senators Chuck Grassley and Tom Harkin are also more than 10 points above Survey USA’s comparable numbers.

The Register’s new poll may encourage former four-term Governor Terry Branstad to take the plunge, as it shows 70 percent of respondents approve of the job he did as governor. Branstad’s favorability rating is 59 percent, a bit higher than Culver’s 55 percent. Political columnist Kathie Obradovich suggested that these numbers should “incinerate” any doubts Branstad might have about getting back into politics.

I see the results somewhat differently. Today’s numbers are probably Branstad’s high water mark, since no one has campaigned against him for 15 years. Once he becomes a candidate, his real record, as opposed to the Draft Branstad PAC’s version, will get more scrutiny. Yet even today’s poll indicates that just 48 percent of all respondents think it would be a good idea for Branstad to run for governor again (36 percent thought it would be a bad idea).

Among Republicans, 60 percent thought Branstad should run. However, 26 percent of Republicans thought that would be a bad idea. Again, that’s before anyone seriously campaigns against him. I assume Branstad would win a GOP primary by a healthy margin, but he will have to fight for it, and a significant proportion of Republicans won’t welcome his return. Will he be able to count on disappointed party members to vote for him, or activists to volunteer for him next November? He’ll need help to overcome Iowa Democrats’ voter registration advantage, which Branstad never faced in any of his previous elections.

If I were Branstad, the most worrying sign in the Register’s poll would be something else Obradovich mentioned in her column on Sunday:

The former governor’s biggest problem comes from seniors, who are usually dependable voters. Among the 65-and-older set, nearly half think it’s a bad idea for Branstad to run again. Only about three in 10 said it’s a good idea.

It’s telling that Iowans who were adults during the entirety of Branstad’s tenure as governor, and are old enough to remember his predecessor Bob Ray, are the least likely to want Branstad back in politics. In contrast, various polls have indicated that Culver’s support is higher among over-50 Iowans than in the population as a whole. (I didn’t see the age breakdown for Culver’s numbers in this poll.)

Doubts about Branstad are likely to grow when the inevitable negative commercials hit the airwaves, focusing on the Mastercard governor’s two sets of books or his failure to deliver on some key promises made to Republicans.

No wonder longtime political observers like Des Moines Register columnist Marc Hansen and Civic Skinny’s unnamed source think it would be a mistake for Branstad to run for governor again.

Share any relevant thoughts in this thread.

VA-Gov: Two Polls Show Deeds Closing In, One Doesn’t

Three new polls have come out over the past few days of the Virginia gubernatorial race. Let’s run through all three, starting with the newest.

Taylor Nelson Sofres for the Washington Post (9/14-17, likely voters, 8/11-14 in parens):

Creigh Deeds (D): 47 (39)

Bob McDonnell (R): 51 (54)

Undecided: 2 (7)

(MoE: ±3.1%)

WaPo has more on where these new Deeds voters are coming from:

Following news coverage of the thesis, the poll offers fresh evidence the tactic might be working: The percentage of likely voters who see McDonnell as “too conservative” has jumped 10 points since the August poll and corresponds with a double-digit increase in the number seeing Deeds as “just about right” ideologically. The percentage of independent female voters seeing McDonnell as too conservative is now significantly higher than it had been.

In August, independent women favored McDonnell 59 to 31 percent; now they split 50 percent for Deeds to 47 percent for McDonnell. […]

In Northern Virginia, where statewide Democrats have been successful but Deeds was slow to win support, he now leads McDonnell, 57 to 40 percent, among likely voters. In the innermost Washington suburbs, Deeds leads 63 to 34 percent. A month ago, the two men were running about even in Northern Virginia.

Nearly half of likely voters, 46 percent, say they have heard a “great deal” or a “good amount” about the thesis, and among those who say it will affect their vote, the influence is broadly negative. Most, though, see the thesis as not having an impact, and very few — less than 1 percent — call the thesis the most important issue in the campaign.

However, GOP voters are still more pumped up about voting — 36% of McDonnell supporters are “very enthusiastic” about voting for their candidate, while only 22% of Deeds supporters feel the same way. That’s a higher score for both candidates than they received in last month’s poll, but McDonnell had the bigger gain.

Less optimistic is the latest Research 2000 poll for Daily Kos (9/14-16, likely voters, 8/3-5 in parens):

Creigh Deeds (D): 43 (43)

Bob McDonnell (R): 50 (51)

Undecided: 7 (6)

(MoE: ±4%)

The needle barely budged here despite McDonnell’s thesis blow-up. (Indeed, women prefer Deeds by only a three-point margin, which is barely changed from Deeds’ one-point lead in August.) Others are reading the needle a little differently.

Rasmussen, which hasn’t been earning too many accolades in the comments section lately, came in on Thursday with numbers that err on the side of TNS (9/16, likely voters, 8/10 in parens):

Creigh Deeds (D): 46 (41)

Bob McDonnell (R): 48 (49)

Undecided: 5 (7)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Florida, Part 5

By: Inoljt, http://thepolitikalblog.wordpr…

This is the last part of an analysis on the swing state Florida.

Miami-Dade County

Here is how John Kerry did in south Florida:

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Here is how Barack Obama performed:

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Broward and Palm Beach are marginally smaller, when compared to Obama’s performance. The big difference, however, is with Miami-Dade. Kerry won it by 6%; Obama won it by 16%.

There is no other place in Florida (and, perhaps, the country) like Miami-Dade. Palm Beach and Broward counties are retiree destinations; Miami is home to immigrants and refugees from all Latin America. More than 60% of the population is Latino – and only 3% of them come from Mexico. The Miami accent is unique compared with the nation. Local government is distinct from other counties in Florida.

One would expect Miami to be one of the most Democratic places in the nation, much like New York City or Chicago.

It is not.

Continued below the flip.

Obama won the five boroughs of New York City by 59%: a 4 to 1 margin. He won Cook County (Chicago) by 53%, with more than three-fourths of the vote. In contrast, Obama took 58% of Miami-Dade county – less than the amount by which he won New York City. The 2008 Democratic performance in Miami is comparable to their performance in cities such as Dallas (57% of the vote) and Sacramento (58% of the vote).

Much of this is due to the Cuban vote, the city’s largest demographic group. Refugees from Castro’s Cuba, staunchly anti-Communist, and faithful Republicans ever since the Bay of Pigs fiasco; Cubans vote as strongly Republican as Jews vote Democratic. In 2000, George W. Bush won about four out of five Cubans, helped by Cuban anger over Al Gore’s role in the Elian Gonzalez affair. In 2008 Obama won around 35% of their vote, based on exit polls. This was the best performance of a Democrat with Cubans in recent memory.

Their influence ensures that Miami remains a competitive, Democratic-leaning city. Democrats usually end up winning it, but their margins are severely cut. And occasionally it will turn up in the Republican column – as happened during the 2004 Senate race. There, Mel Martinez, a Bush ally, won Miami-Dade on his way to a one percent victory.

Photobucket

Democrats often hopefully comment that demographic shifts will slowly move Cubans leftward, as a new generation of Cubans, less concerned with Castro and communism, replaces their more militant elders. Perhaps. But that process will be the work of decades, not a single election cycle. For the moment the Cuban vote remains strongly Republican.

In 2008 the Democrats challenged two entrenched, Republican congressmen in south Florida: the Cuban Diaz-Balart brothers. The races were closely watched, so much that the New York Times Magazine aired an article dedicated to them. In the end, both Republicans won by margins larger than expected. Their continuing presence points to the steadfastness of the Cuban Republican vote.



Conclusion

Of the three most commonly cited swing states, Florida is the most conservative. The state can be divided into unique blocs, each of which has a distinct culture. The first, northern Florida, shares much/is part of the Deep South. Voting patterns reflect this. The populous I-4 corridor – Florida’s so-called swing-region – leans Republican, although Democrats perform well in Tampa Bay and Orlando. Finally, south Florida – diverse and populous – is the Democratic base, although the Cuban vote in Miami blunts their strength.

Whether Florida will remain this way is uncertain. Florida is an immense and diverse state. It is home to the Panhandle and Miami – two places opposite as night and day. Most every part of America can be found in the varied peoples that reside there. And certainly, it will continue to be an important swing state, sought after by both parties. Whoever ends up winning Florida is well on his or her way to becoming president.

Virginia House of Delegates Targets: Mid-September Edition

Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R
3rd (Bowling)

23rd (Valentine)

32nd (Poisson)

44th (open)

87th (Miller)
51st (Nichols)

52nd (open)

64th (Barlow)

67th (Caputo)

93rd (Hamilton)
6th (Crockett-Stark)

17th (open)

21st (Mathieson)

34th (Vanderhye)

42nd (Albo)

83rd (Bouchard)

86th (Rust)
7th (Nutter)

13rd (B. Marshall)

14th (D. Marshall)
58th (Bell)

73rd (O’Bannon)

82nd (Purkey)

94th (Oder)

Ratings changes since last time:

6th – moved to Tossup from Lean Republican (Pratt is running a spirited campaign; Crockett-Stark seems to be sleepwalking)

7th – moved to Lean Republican from Tossup (Deeds’ sagging poll numbers are not going to help Frank)

21st – moved to Tossup from Lean Democratic (Tough race in McDonnell’s home turf + embezzlement problem for Mathieson)

23rd – moved to Likely Democratic from Lean Democratic (huge cash advantage for Valentine)

26th – dropped from the list (Just doesn’t look like it’s there)

35th – dropped from the list (Keam is kicking Hyland’s butt money-wise)

50th – dropped from the list (Rishell’s campaign is terrible)

67th – moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic (Caputo underperforms)

93rd – moved to Lean Democratic (pickup) from Tossup (Hamilton scandal)

94th – moved to Likely Republican from Lean Republican (3-1 cash advantage for Oder)

Democratic Targets

6th: Anne Crockett-Stark vs. Carole Pratt (Bland, Giles, Pulaski, Tazewell, Wythe)

Anne Crockett-Stark picked up this seat in 2005, then failed to increase her margin much in 2007, winning 54-46 then 56-44. Challenger Carole Pratt was a last-minute fill-in, but her campaign is incredibly energetic, having more than doubled Crockett-Stark’s cash on hand and wrested the Virginia Education Association endorsement from her. The district is fairly Republican but is sympathetic to the right Democrat — Deeds only lost the district 55-45 in 2005, whereas Obama lost it 61-37.

7th: Dave Nutter vs. Peggy Frank (Montgomery, Pulaski, Radford)

Nutter won 53-47 over Peggy Frank in 2007, and she’s come back for a rematch. There hasn’t been much news out of this race, and it will probably come down to the margin at the top of the ticket; if Deeds wins or makes it close (he got 48% here in 2005), Frank will have a much higher chance of winning than if Deeds loses by a significant margin.

13th: Bob Marshall vs. John Bell (Loudoun, Prince William)

Bob Marshall is a far-right culture warrior in a rapidly-expanding exurban district (it has twice as many registered voters as most other House districts and narrowly voted for Obama last year after supporting Republicans in the past). He trounced Bruce Roemmelt in 2005 and 2007, but Air Force vet John Bell looks to be a stronger challenger, having outraised Marshall 2-1, although his high burn rate gives Marshall a slight cash advantage, and Marshall is very good at holding this seat without spending a lot of money.

14th: Danny Marshall vs. Seward Anderson (Danville, Henry, Pittsylvania)

Danny Marshall narrowly held off Adam Tomer in 2007 52-48, and faces another strong challenger this time, former Danville Mayor Seward Anderson. The problem for Anderson is winning enough of the vote in Pittsylvania; Marshall narrowly lost Danville last time but won an overwhelming 63% in Pittsylvania to hold on. The district is swingy, voting for Deeds, Kaine, and Obama while also voting for Allen and Bolling, and Allen was the only one to hit 54% in the district. Marshall has rocketed to a 2-1 cash on hand advantage over Anderson as of September, so Anderson has some ground to make up in the last two months of the campaign.

17th: open (William Fralin retiring); Bill Cleaveland vs. Gwen Mason (Botetourt, Roanoke County, Roanoke City)

This is an open seat, the only reason this seat is a target, as it’s a pretty solidly Republican district (although Kaine did get 47% there). Democrat Gwen Mason, a member of the Roanoke City Council, was able to sit back and accrue a war chest as five Republicans battled it out for the nomination, in which attorney Bill Cleaveland emerged as the Republican victor. Cleaveland doesn’t seem to have much of a base in the district — he lives in Botetourt, the smallest part of the district, although his practice is in the City of Roanoke. His post-primary fundraising is also sputtering, aside from a large infusion of cash from retiring Fralin.

42nd: Dave Albo vs. Greg Werkheiser (Fairfax)

Dave Albo is notorious for being the driving force (no pun intended) behind the incredibly-unpopular abusive driving fees that were passed in 2007 and summarily repealed the next year. Greg Werkheiser, Albo’s 2005 opponent who came within a few percent of beating Albo, is running again. Albo has realized the peril he’s in and pumped a bunch of PAC money into his account. There doesn’t seem to be a special interest around that he won’t take money from, and it’s given him a 2-1 cash advantage over Werkheiser.

52nd: open (Jeff Frederick retiring); Rafael Lopez vs. Luke Torian (Prince William)

Jeff Frederick, ostracized by his party, is retiring, so the Republican nominee is Rafael Lopez. Frederick’s wife Amy had filed for the Republican nomination but withdrew before the primary. Democrats chose pastor Luke Torian in the primary, who will likely cruise to victory in November. This district was won by Obama 63-36 — not fertile ground for a Republican hold in the best of circumstances.

58th: Robert Bell vs. Cynthia Neff (Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene, Orange)

Another masterful Republican gerrymander, this district is basically a New Jersey-shaped wedge around Charlottesville that has an ever-so-slight Republican lean. Bell faces a challenge from Cynthia Neff, a retired IBM executive, but get this — Bell has over $500,000 on hand. Not a typo, half a million dollars. I guess he’s been wanting to run statewide for a while. Neff is going to have to go a long way to make up for this financial disadvantage.

73rd: John O’Bannon vs. Thomas Shields (Henrico, Richmond City)

Suburban Richmond is home to John O’Bannon, who has $175,000 in the bank and is being challenged by college professor Thomas Shields. Shields has a lot of catching up to do to match O’Bannon’s fundraising. This is actually the first time a Democrat has bothered to run against O’Bannon, who succeeded Eric Cantor following his election to Congress in 2000. The district is one of many in the Commonwealth that is moving towards the center after being Republican-leaning for a while.

82nd: Bob Purkey vs. Peter Schmidt vs. John Parmele (Virginia Beach)

Purkey, a former Wall Street broker, sleepwalks through one campaign after another. His first serious opponent in years is Republican-turned-Democrat Peter Schmidt, who challenged Purkey in the Republican primary in 2005. Schmidt’s profile as a moderate former Republican could be a boon in his bid, but he will be fighting the heavy Republican lean in this district — 60-40 for both McDonnell in 2005 and McCain last year. Independent John Parmele, who lost 71-29 to Purkey in a two-way race in 2005, will be the third option on the ballot.

86th: Tom Rust vs. Stevens Miller (Fairfax, Loudoun)

Rust’s first serious challenge came in 2007, when he was held to 53% by Jay Donohue. The district has made a sharp left turn to the Democrats, voting 62% for Obama in 2008. Rust is being challenged this time by Loudoun County Supervisor Stevens Miller. Miller’s geographic location may help, as in 2007 Rust only narrowly won the Fairfax part of the district but dominated the Loudoun portion 55-45. If anything saves Rust, it’s his large cash on hand advantage over Miller.

93rd: Phil Hamilton vs. Robin Abbott (James City, Newport News)

Hamilton represents a Democratic district that has only gotten stronger in recent years, but hasn’t faced an opponent since 1995. Now he’s going up against attorney Robin Abbott. Like Albo, Hamilton has sensed danger and is suckling at the teat for PAC money. Hamilton has run into quite a bit of trouble about a job he was given by Old Dominion University that sprung from an appropriation he made for the school, particularly lying about not having any communication with them about it. He’s resisted calls to resign, but it seems that the wheels are coming off his campaign; donations continue to roll into his campaign, though, mostly from his fellow Republican Delegates. He retains a 2-1 cash advantage over Abbott, so he’s not going down without a fight, but it remains to be seen whether he will be able to buy his way out of the hole he’s dug himself into. I’m leaning towards “no”, personally.

94th: Glenn Oder vs. Gary West (Newport News)

Oder is yet another Republican in a slightly Republican-leaning district, although it was won by Obama last year. He hasn’t faced a Democrat since he defeated John Miller (now a State Senator) 54-46 when he was first elected to the House in 2001. This year he is challenged by attorney Gary West, who is running a spirited campaign but faces an uphill fight against the district’s Republican lean in the off-year; although it barely went for Kaine in 2005, it supported McDonnell by an 8-point margin. West’s fundraising has lagged; as of September he has only $22,000 in the bank compared to Oder’s $78,000.

Republican Targets

3rd: Dan Bowling vs. James Morefield (Buchanan, Russell, Tazewell)

This is a fairly swingy district that went 59-40 for McCain while supporting both Webb and Deeds in previous years. Bowling will find Deeds a boon at the top of the ticket, and his opponent, James Morefield, trails Bowling in fundraising (although Morefield is being propped up by in-kinds), but it’s still one to watch.

21st: Bobby Mathieson vs. Ron Villanueva (Virginia Beach)

Mathieson trounced incumbent Republican John Welch in 2007, but this time he faces Ron Villanueva, a member of the Virginia Beach City Council, who has twice been elected citywide. There is a small but significant Filipino community in Virginia Beach which Villanueva might be able to appeal to, and this is Bob McDonnell’s home turf, definitely a boon for any Republican running here. However, working against the Republicans is the fact that this is the most Democratic House district in the city (although still won by McDonnell in 2005), and Villanueva’s fundraising has lagged behind Mathieson’s so far. Mathieson may be hindered by the news in September that one of his campaign aides had embezzled campaign funds.

23rd: Shannon Valentine vs. Scott Garrett (Amherst, Lynchburg)

Valentine won the seat in a 2006 special election and was unopposed in 2007, but this year she will face Lynchburg City Councilman Scott Garrett, who won the June primary. Garrett apparently blew his wad in the primary — after spending $115,000 on a 54-46 primary win, he’s now seriously trailing Shannon Valentine in money. Valentine is sitting pretty with $225,000, whereas Garrett has only $32,000 on hand.

32nd: David Poisson vs. Tag Greason (Loudoun)

Poisson underperformed in 2007 after defeating Dick Black in 2005, but his 2009 opponent, Tag Greason, doesn’t seem to be up to the challenge, as Poisson holds a 3-1 cash advantage as of September. This is a swing district with a slight Democratic lean.

34th: Margi Vanderhye vs. Barbara Comstock (Fairfax)

When longtime incumbent Vince Callahan retired in 2007, this was considered an easy pickup. He was the last Republican from inside the beltway in the House of Delegates, and the district was won by every Democrat from John Kerry forward. However, Margi Vanderhye only managed a 3% victory. She’s being challenged by Barbara Comstock, a much more conservative Republican than the moderate Callahan. This race is one of the most expensive House races of 2009, with Comstock having raised over $300,000 and Vanderhye having raised $235,000; Vanderhye has been more judicious in her expenditures, though, and trails by only $158,000 to $132,000 cash on hand as of September.

44th: open (Kris Amundson retiring); Scott Surovell vs. Jay McConville vs. Glenda Gail Parker (Fairfax)

Admunson retired in late June, giving the Republicans a leg up with a decent fundraiser, Jay McConville, but the substitute candidate, Fairfax County Democratic party chair Scott Surovell, took no time catching up, raising $80,000 in eight days, and he remains ahead in the money race as of September. In addition, the district is pretty Democratic, which helps Surovell’s chances. The third candidate in the race is our favorite light rail-supporting perennial candidate, Glenda Gail Parker of the Indy Greens.

51st: Paul Nichols vs. Richard Anderson (Prince William)

Nichols picked up this seat from retiring Republican Michele McQuigg in 2007 against a pretty lame opponent, but similar to Vanderhye, only won by about 4%. He’s facing Richard Anderson in November. Nichols loaned himself $100k to get a leg up on Anderson; he’s since repaid half those loans and still remains far ahead of Anderson in cash on hand.

64th: Bill Barlow vs. Stan Clark vs. Albert Burckard Jr. (Franklin City, Isle of Wight, James City, Southampton, Surry, Williamsburg)

Barlow is a longtime incumbent who has been winning with shrinking margins over the years, from 65-32 in 1999 to just 54-45 in 2005, his last contested election. The Republicans have chosen Isle of Wight County Supervisor Stan Clark to face off against him, and Independent Green Albert Burckard Jr., who also ran in 2005, will also be on the ballot. Barlow is far ahead in money coming into the home stretch, but Clark may be able to cut into Barlow’s base in Isle of Wight.

67th: Chuck Caputo vs. Jim LeMunyon (Fairfax, Loudoun)

Chuck Caputo easily defeated wingnut Chris Craddock to win an open Republican seat in 2005, then nearly lost the seat in 2007, winning only 53-47 against Marc Cadin. Now he will face another challenge, this time from entrepreneur Jim LeMunyon. Caputo currently leads LeMunyon 2-1 in cash on hand (who has had to loan himself $20,000 to try to keep up), which, if 2007 is any indicator, is about what he needs to win again. However, he probably won’t be winning by a large margin.

83rd: Joe Bouchard vs. Chris Stolle (Virginia Beach)

Retired Navy Commander Joe Bouchard defeated Chris Stolle, brother of State Sen. Ken Stolle, by a mere 131 votes in 2007. Stolle has come back for a rematch, but can’t depend on his brother’s help this time, as Ken is busy running for Virginia Beach Sheriff. Stolle’s fundraising hasn’t been able to keep up with Bouchard, but working in his favor is that he’ll be running downticket from Bob McDonnell, who won the district by 10 points in 2005.

87th: Paula Miller vs. John Amiral (Norfolk)

Miller picked up Thelma Drake’s House of Delegates seat in a 2004 special election, winning by a 97-vote margin over Michael Ball. She won against Ball again in 2005, that time by a 50-38 margin, with Republican-running-as-Independent John Coggeshall picking up the remaining 12 percent. In 2007, she defeated retired Vice Admiral Hank Giffin by a 54-46 margin (and keep in mind, this district includes a lot of the area near Norfolk Naval Station). This may be her easiest fight yet, against another Navy vet, John Amiral, but her fundraising is pretty anemic so far. Although Obama cleaned up here in 2008, this is a swing district in off-years, and has enough recent high-end residential development to keep any Democrat wary.

One More to Watch

91st: Tom Gear vs. Gordon Helsel vs. Sam Eure (Hampton, Poquoson, York)

This won’t cause a change in the House of Delegates, but I thought it was an interesting race nonetheless. Gear is being challenged by Democrat Sam Eure (who has raised nearly no money and his last campaign was for York County Board of Superviors — he lost by 15 percent) and Republican-turned-Independent Gordon Helsel, the Mayor of Poquoson, who is outraising Gear by about 2-1. The district is about 50-50 split between Hampton and Poquoson/York, and each locality has their own candidate — Gear from Hampton, Helsel from Poquoson, and Eure from York. Gear, however, performed weakest in Hampton the last time he was opposed, against an independent in 2005. He only won Hampton 57-42, whereas he won Poquoson and York with over 60%. It will be interesting to see how this race plays out.

Dropped from the List

26th: Matt Lohr vs. Gene Hart (Harrisonburg, Rockingham)

Lohr was elected 54-46 in 2005 against Lowell Fulk (not to be confused with blogger Lowell Feld), and faced only an independent in 2007. Harrisonburg attorney Gene Hart is taking a swing at it this time. Though he seems to be running a spirited campaign, his fundraising just doesn’t look strong enough to make it a close race in a district that’s this tough — blood-red Rockingham County didn’t even go for Warner in 2008.

35th: open (Steve Shannon retiring); Mark Keam vs. James Hyland (Fairfax)

Steve Shannon, of course, is the Democratic nominee for Attorney General. Republican James Hyland, a former chair of the Fairfax County Republican Party who lost 60-40 to Shannon in 2005, had a clear path to the nomination; Democrats overwhelmingly chose Mark Keam, an attorney who worked on Barack Obama’s Virginia campaign, in the four-way primary. Keam is a fundraising machine, and will leave Hyland in the dust by November.

50th: Jackson Miller vs. Jeanette Rishell (Manassas, Manassas Park, Prince William)

Rishell has run for this seat twice before and lost twice, first 53-47 in a 2006 special election, then by 61-39 in 2007. This is a swing district, and Rishell is good at raising money, but that’s about it. Her campaign has been ineptly run, possibly since her campaign manager has been involved in a scandal and keeps making gaffes.

California State Legislature Race Ratings (2010)

Here are my SSP-style ratings for the California State Legislature in 2010. In the State Senate table, I listed all the districts, even-numbered, that are up, because there are only 20 of them, and as of now only 3 are somewhat competitive. In the State Assembly table, I listed only the districts that are or could be competitive since all 80 districts there are up. Open seats are in italics.

District details can be found at the 2010 California Race Tracker. Feel free to jump in and add any updates as you find them.

State Senate

Solid D Likely D Lean D Toss-Up Lean R Likely R Solid R
2 (Wiggins)
6 (Steinberg)
8 (Yee)
10 (Corbett)
20 (Yee)
22 (Cedillo)
24 (Romero)
26 (Price)
28 (Oropeza)
30 (R. Calderon)
32 (Negrete-McLeod)
40 (Ducheny)
16 (Florez)
34 (Correa)
12 (Denham)
4 (Aanestad)
14 (Cogdill)
18 (Ashburn)
36 (Hollingsworth)
38 (Wyland)

State Assembly

Likely D Lean D Toss-Up Lean R Likely R
31 (Arambula)
78 (Block)
15 (Buchanan)
80 (Perez)
5 (Niello)
10 (Huber)
30 (Gilmore)
36 (Knight)
26 (Berryhill)
33 (Blakeslee)
37 (A. Strickland)
63 (Emmerson)
65 (Cook)
68 (Tran)
72 (DuVall)
3 (Logue)
38 (Smyth)
59 (Adams)
64 (Nestande)
70 (DeVore)
74 (Garrick)
75 (Fletcher)

Below the flip are the Senate and Assembly districts’ Cook PVI’s, with the Board of Equalization and counties thrown in, just in case anyone is curious.

State Senate

District Incumbent PVI
SD-01
Cox
R+8.0
SD-02
Wiggins
D+15.4
SD-03
Leno
D+29.1
SD-04
Aanestad
R+10.1
SD-05
Wolk
D+7.4
SD-06
Steinberg
D+9.4
SD-07
DeSaulnier
D+13.2
SD-08
Yee
D+24.3
SD-09
Hancock
D+32.0
SD-10
Corbett
D+18.8
SD-11
Simitian
D+20.2
SD-12
Denham
D+2.3
SD-13
Alquist
D+19.2
SD-14
Cogdill
R+11.8
SD-15
Maldonado
D+5.2
SD-16
Florez
D+3.6
SD-17
Runner
R+6.0
SD-18
Ashburn
R+16.5
SD-19
T. Strickland
D+1.5
SD-20
Padilla
D+18.4
SD-21
Liu
D+15.6
SD-22
Cedillo
D+25.6
SD-23
Pavley
D+16.9
SD-24
Romero
D+16.4
SD-25
Wright
D+24.9
SD-26
Price
D+33.1
SD-27
A. Lowenthal
D+12.2
SD-28
Oropeza
D+13.8
SD-29
Huff
R+4.9
SD-30
R. Calderon
D+14.9
SD-31
Dutton
R+4.9
SD-32
Negrete-McLeod
D+13.1
SD-33
Walters
R+9.4
SD-34
Correa
D+1.5
SD-35
Harman
R+5.9
SD-36
Hollingsworth
R+12.4
SD-37
Benoit
R+4.9
SD-38
Wyland
R+6.2
SD-39
Kehoe
D+10.6
SD-40
Ducheny
D+6.9

State Assembly

District Incumbent PVI
AD-01
Chesbro
D+12.2
AD-02
Nielsen
R+14.9
AD-03
Logue
R+4.9
AD-04
Gaines
R+8.6
AD-05
Niello
R+4.0
AD-06
Huffman
D+23.0
AD-07
Evans
D+17.3
AD-08
Yamada
D+8.9
AD-09
Jones
D+19.1
AD-10
Huber
R+3.8
AD-11
Torlakson
D+16.4
AD-12
Ma
D+28.5
AD-13
Ammiano
D+36.0
AD-14
Skinner
D+31.6
AD-15
Buchanan
D+3.0
AD-16
Swanson
D+36.2
AD-17
Galgiani
D+4.0
AD-18
Hayashi
D+21.2
AD-19
Hill
D+20.5
AD-20
Torrico
D+17.5
AD-21
Ruskin
D+18.7
AD-22
Fong
D+19.1
AD-23
Coto
D+18.3
AD-24
Beall
D+14.5
AD-25
T. Berryhill
R+8.6
AD-26
B. Berryhill
R+4.5
AD-27
Monning
D+18.7
AD-28
Caballero
D+13.5
AD-29
Villines
R+10.2
AD-30
Gilmore
R+4.0
AD-31
Arambula
D+6.9
AD-32
Fuller
R+18.3
AD-33
Blakeslee
R+4.1
AD-34
Conway
R+13.7
AD-35
Nava
D+12.7
AD-36
Knight
R+6.6
AD-37
A. Strickland
R+3.1
AD-38
Smyth
R+3.0
AD-39
Fuentes
D+22.6
AD-40
Blumenfield
D+13.0
AD-41
Brownley
D+14.5
AD-42
Feuer
D+23.2
AD-43
Krekorian
D+16.5
AD-44
Portantino
D+13.4
AD-45
de León
D+29.0
AD-46
J. Pérez
D+31.7
AD-47
Bass
D+32.4
AD-48
Davis
D+37.0
AD-49
Eng
D+12.7
AD-50
De La Torre
D+23.2
AD-51
Bradford
D+27.9
AD-52
Hall
D+37.9
AD-53
Lieu
D+9.1
AD-54
B. Lowenthal
D+8.7
AD-55
Furutani
D+15.6
AD-56
Mendoza
D+8.0
AD-57
Hernandez
D+11.9
AD-58
C. Calderon
D+13.0
AD-59
Adams
R+7.1
AD-60
Hagman
R+8.3
AD-61
Torres
D+8.2
AD-62
Carter
D+16.0
AD-63
Emmerson
R+3.7
AD-64
Nestande
R+5.0
AD-65
Cook
R+7.4
AD-66
Jeffries
R+11.4
AD-67
Silva
R+7.2
AD-68
Tran
R+7.1
AD-69
Solorio
D+8.0
AD-70
DeVore
R+4.0
AD-71
Miller
R+10.9
AD-72
Vacant
R+7.2
AD-73
Harkey
R+7.8
AD-74
Garrick
R+4.3
AD-75
Fletcher
R+3.4
AD-76
Saldaña
D+12.3
AD-77
Anderson
R+11.4
AD-78
Block
D+5.1
AD-79
Salas
D+9.9
AD-80
M. Perez
D+5.1

Board of Equalization

District Incumbent PVI
BOE-01
Yee
D+19.1
BOE-02
Leonard
R+3.8
BOE-03
Steel
R+4.1
BOE-04
Shea
D+18.0

County 1996-2000 2000-2004 2004-2008
Alameda
D+18.8
D+24.0
D+26.3
Alpine
R+1.2
D+2.4
D+6.4
Amador
R+7.8
R+10.1
R+10.9
Butte
R+7.4
R+4.8
R+3.1
Calaveras
R+7.9
R+9.3
R+9.7
Colusa
R+15.3
R+16.8
R+14.4
Contra Costa
D+8.5
D+12.2
D+14.4
Del Norte
R+3.7
R+6.5
R+6.4
El Dorado
R+10.8
R+10.5
R+9.5
Fresno
R+6.0
R+6.0
R+4.8
Glenn
R+17.4
R+17.3
R+15.1
Humboldt
R+4.5
D+2.7
D+9.3
Imperial
D+5.6
D+4.6
D+6.7
Inyo
R+11.8
R+10.4
R+7.9
Kern
R+13.0
R+14.3
R+14.1
Kings
R+8.6
R+12.3
R+12.6
Lake
D+1.3
D+3.9
D+5.0
Lassen
R+2.8
R+7.0
R+20.1
Los Angeles
D+12.6
D+15.0
D+15.6
Madera
R+13.0
R+13.1
R+11.6
Marin
D+12.4
D+20.4
D+24.9
Mariposa
R+10.0
R+10.1
R+9.3
Mendocino
R+1.8
D+7.6
D+15.8
Merced
R+3.4
R+4.9
R+2.8
Modoc
R+18.4
R+23.1
R+21.8
Mono
R+5.0
R+1.9
D+1.8
Monterey
D+6.6
D+10.6
D+13.7
Napa
D+3.8
D+8.6
D+11.7
Nevada
R+2.9
R+4.8
R+2.1
Orange
R+9.5
R+8.5
R+6.8
Placer
R+11.7
R+11.7
R+10.4
Plumas
R+11.4
R+12.1
R+10.1
Riverside
R+4.2
R+5.3
R+4.9
Sacramento
D+0.7
D+1.1
D+3.3
San Benito
D+3.7
D+5.1
D+5.8
San Bernardino
R+2.8
R+2.7
R+2.7
San Diego
R+3.3
R+1.8
R+0.3
San Francisco
D+25.1
D+30.9
D+32.9
San Joaquin
R+2.0
R+1.8
R+0.6
San Luis Obispo
R+5.1
R+3.2
R+1.9
San Mateo
D+13.7
D+18.6
D+20.9
Santa Barbara
R+1.7
D+2.0
D+6.1
Santa Clara
D+10.0
D+14.0
D+16.1
Santa Cruz
D+10.2
D+18.9
D+24.6
Shasta
R+15.8
R+16.8
R+16.3
Sierra
R+13.2
R+14.5
R+13.0
Siskiyou
R+10.1
R+11.8
R+4.7
Solano
D+7.3
D+8.8
D+9.6
Sonoma
D+8.8
D+15.0
D+19.8
Stanislaus
R+3.9
R+6.2
R+5.6
Sutter
R+17.2
R+17.0
R+14.1
Tehama
R+12.7
R+15.7
R+15.3
Trinity
R+6.0
R+6.9
R+3.3
Tulare
R+12.8
R+13.9
R+13.3
Tuolumne
R+7.1
R+8.5
R+9.3
Ventura
R+2.7
R+0.4
D+0.8
Yolo
D+7.1
D+8.8
D+12.6
Yuba
R+12.0
R+14.7
R+13.4

NC-Sen: Burr Leads by 10 or More

Rasmussen (9/15, likely voters):

Elaine Marshall (D): 38

Richard Burr (R-inc): 48

Undecided: 11

Kenneth Lewis (D): 32

Richard Burr (R-inc): 48

Undecided: 14

Bob Etheridge (D): 34

Richard Burr (R-inc): 48

Undecided: 15

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Here’s another variation on the same theme we’ve been seeing out of North Carolina: Burr is still under 50, and his potential Democratic competitors are all starting in a similar position. PPP recently had Burr in the low 40s, and leading by similar margins. The major distinction is that PPP found that Etheridge started in the strongest position (41-34), compared to Marshall shining the brightest from the Dem field according to Rasmussen.

RaceTracker Wiki: NC-Sen

ME-Gov: Still Mostly a Question Mark

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/14-16, likely voters):

Elizabeth Mitchell (D): 34

Les Otten (R): 28

Undecided: 38

Elizabeth Mitchell (D): 35

Peter Mills (R): 15

Undecided: 50

Elizabeth Mitchell (D): 35

Matt Jacobson (R): 14

Undecided: 51

Michael Michaud (D): 33

Les Otten (R): 29

Undecided: 38

Michael Michaud (D): 34

Peter Mills (R): 15

Undecided: 51

Michael Michaud (D): 34

Matt Jacobson (R): 14

Undecided: 52

Steve Rowe (D): 30

Les Otten (R): 31

Undecided: 39

Steve Rowe (D): 31

Peter Mills (R): 15

Undecided: 54

Steve Rowe (D): 31

Matt Jacobson (R): 14

Undecided: 55

(MoE: ±4%)

Research 2000 polled Maine to get a sense of where the anti-gay marriage initiative on the statewide ballot in November stands. The poll finds the initiative passing (where “yes” = a vote against gay marriage), but by a narrow 48-46 margin. As one might expect, the younger you are, the likelier you are to support gay marriage (18-29s are 43 yes, 52 no, while 60+ are 55 yes, 38 no), but there’s also a big disparity between the two congressional districts in the state (the more cosmopolitan 1st is 45 yes, 50 no, while the backwoodsy 2nd is 51 yes, 42 no).

As a bonus, they also threw in the first look anyone has taken at the Maine governor’s race for 2010, a race that has been particularly slow to take shape and where nobody terribly well-known is running. The results aren’t what you would call conclusive, with ‘undecided’ winning every race, but show the Dems with a decent margin in every permutation, except for a Steve Rowe/Les Otten matchup.

The players here are:

• Elizabeth “Libby” Mitchell: Democratic state Senate president, former state House speaker, and loser of the 1984 U.S. Senate election to William Cohen (she got into the race in August, so quietly that we at SSP didn’t even notice; the 69-year-old Mitchell would be Maine’s first female governor)

• Mike Michaud, Democratic Representative in ME-02 (has been rumored to be interested, but has taken no steps to run)

• Steve Rowe, former two-term Democratic Attorney General and former state House speaker (is officially in the race)

• Les Otten, Republican former co-owner of Boston Red Sox and of American Ski Company (has formed exploratory committee)

• Peter Mills, Republican state Senator and loser of the 2006 GOP gubernatorial primary (is running)

• Matt Jacobson, Republican CEO of Maine & CO., a nonprofit that seeks to attract business to Maine and former president of St. Lawrence & Atlantic Railroad (is running)

RaceTracker Wiki: ME-Gov

Meaningless and Premature 2009-2010 Governor Predictions

Here are my sometimes arbitrary and always meaningless and premature picks for the 2009-2010 governor’s races.  I’m seeing 7 Republican pickups, 6 Democratic pickups, and 1 Independent pickup of a Republican seat in RI.  That would leave the governor distribution at 27D-22R-1I.  I’m expecting substantial economic recovery, but still a fairly anti-incumbent mood.

PARTY SWITCHES

1. WY-OPEN – Simpson (R) over Generic D by 36 – I can’t imagine Freudenthal suing for a third term, but why doesn’t he just say so already?  Otherwise, there is officially no hope.

2. KS-OPEN – Brownback (R) over Generic D by 33 – No significant D has stepped up.  We will be asking, “What’s the matter with Kansas” more than ever with Brownback in charge.

3. RI-OPEN – Chafee (I) over Lynch (D) by 10 and Trillo (R) by 28 – Chafee’s partyless brand will play well in an anti-incumbent year.

4. HI-OPEN – Abercrombie (D) over Aiona (R) by 14 – Kos poll looks solid for Dems.

5. CA-OPEN – Brown (D) over Whitman (R) by 12 – Whitman will not be able to pick up enough D’s to make it all that competitive against Brown.

6. OK-OPEN – Fallin (R) over Edmondson (D) by 10 – Tough times for D’s in OK.  PPP poll looks good for Fallin.

7. TN-OPEN – Wamp (R) over McWherter (D) by 9 – No polling, but D hold seems unlikely here given overall trends in the South.  No top-notch D candidate has emerged.

8. VT-OPEN – Racine (D) over Dubie (R) by 9 – Third party candidate likely holds the margin down for Dubie, but D should win.

9. VA-OPEN – McDonnell (R) over Deeds (D) by 8 – Video of Deeds dodging tax question is going around.  Pretty ugly stuff.

10. MN-OPEN – Rybak (D) over Haas (R) by 6 – Hope and expect that R.T. gets in.  Seems like the strongest candidate in the running.

11. MI-OPEN – Cox (R) over Cherry (D) by 4 – Economically strapped Michigan gives strong Republican candidate a chance in the Statehouse.

12. FL-OPEN – Sink (D) over McCollum (R) by 3 – Sink a good candidate for Florida.  Can win some of the panhandle/North Florida votes as well as traditional D areas.

13. CO-Ritter – McInnis (R) over Ritter (D) by 3 – Ritter pretty unpopular.  Colorado still conservative enough to elect McInnis statewide.

14. AZ-Brewer* – Goddard (D) over Martin (R) by 2 – Goddard a very strong, well-known D in Arizona.  Unpopular Brewer bows out or loses primary to State Treasurer Dean Martin.  Hope PPP polls here next week.  They were talking about it.

HOLDS

15. NJ-Corzine – Corzine (D) over Christie (R) by 1 – Christie numbers continue to go down, Daggett goes up.  Just enough for Corzine win.  See Franken v. Coleman.

16. PA-OPEN – Onorato (D) over Corbett (R) by 2 – Dogfight.  Hopefully Onorato can find strong runningmate from Philly.

17. MA-Patrick – Patrick (D) over Cahill (I) by 3 and Baker (R) by 18 – R has no chance here.  Battle is between Patrick and Cahill.  Hopefully, economy will improve enough for Patrick to hold on.  Plus Patrick has first rate operation with Plouffe.

18. SC-OPEN – McMaster (R) over Rex (D) by 5 – PPP polled this one 36-36.  Rex a strong candidate.  Republican lean carries McMaster to victory.  SC demographics slowly trending blue.

19. GA-OPEN – Oxendine (R) over Barnes (D) by 5 -Barnes a very strong candidate.  Again, Republican lean carries Oxendine.

20. WI-OPEN – Barrett (D) over Walker (R) by 7 – Superhero Barrett wins tough one through personal popularity in Milwaukee, which is also Walker’s base, and slight D lean of the state.

21. ME-OPEN – Mitchell (D) over Otten (R) by 8 – Wide open primaries on both sides.  Otten’s money carries him to nomination.  Senate President Mitchell is best candidate for D’s.

22. AL-OPEN – Byrne (R) over Davis (D) by 9 – Davis has a respectable showing, but comes up well short.  It’s still Alabama.

23. IA-Culver – Culver (D) over Vander Plaats (R) by 10 – Branstad chickens out or loses primary to winger Vander Plaats.  That’s the tougher part of the equation for Branstad given IA’s conservative Republican base.  Culver holds on easily over the winger.

24. IL-Quinn – Quinn (D) over Brady (R) by 11 – Second tier Republican field here.  Should not be much of a problem for Quinn.

25. OH-Strickland – Strickland (D) over Kasich (R) by 12 – Kasich is too conservative for Ohio.  Strickland has done about as well as he can in this strapped state.

26. SD-OPEN – Knudson (R) over Heidepriem (D) by 13 – Decent D challenger, but it won’t be a D year and the state leans R.

27. MD-O’Malley – O’Malley (D) over Hogan (R) by 18 – Ehrlich will not run.  Maryland has only gotten bluer, although O’Malley is not the most popular guy in the world.

28. NV-Gibbons* – Sandoval (R) over Reid (D) by 18 – What a wasted opportunity with Rory Reid.  DGA apparently expecting no primary.  For shame.  Somebody save us from the double Reid!

29. OR-OPEN – Kitzhaber (D) over Atkinson (R) by 19 – Nobody beats Kitzhaber here.  Great news that he is running.

30. NM-OPEN – Denish (D) over Martinez (R) by 20 – Denish polling strong against higher tier candidates – Pearce and Wilson – who aren’t running.  Should beat Martinez.

31. AK-Parnell – Parnell (R) over Berkowitz (D) by 21 – Don’t know why so many top Dems trying for this one, but there are only so many places to move up in Alaska.  Parnell popularity at 67-8 according to recent Hays poll.

32. CT-Rell – Rell (R) over Bysiewicz (D) by 24 – Decent challenger but Rell still too popular.

33. TX-Perry* – Hutchison (R) over Schieffer (D) by 26 – KBH narrowly beats Perry and crunches Schieffer by more than what Perry would have.

34. UT-Herbert – Herbert (R) over Generic D by 28 – No prominent D has stepped up.  Overwhelming R lean of the state prevails.

35. ID-Otter – Otter (R) over Generic D by 31 – No significant D has stepped up.  Otter probably not vulnerable if one did.

36. NH-Lynch – Lynch (D) over Generic R by 34 – Lynch cruises again.

37. NY-Paterson* – Cuomo (D) over Lazio (R) by 35 – Lazio humiliated out of politics.  What the hell is Paterson doing, by the way?  

38. AR-Beebe – Beebe (D) over Generic R by 37 – Beebe very, very popular in reddening state.

39. NE-Heineman – Heineman over Generic D by 41 – Smooth sailing for Heineman.