Swing State Project

12:10 AM: All 176 of 176 precincts are reporting; John Garamendi and David Harmer advance to the general. The final tally is Garamendi at 26%, Harmer at 21%, DeSaulnier at 18%, Buchanan at 12%, and Woods at 8%.

11:40 PM: I think Representative Garamendi can start picking out his color of swearing-in tie. I did some more quick addition, adding up the percentage of all Dems and all Republicans. Democrats got 64% of the vote, Republicans 34%. That’s remarkably similar to the 2008 vote, where Obama got 65% and McCain got 33%. If there’s a wave of national discontent with Democrats, or a big shift in the electorate’s composition or levels of enthusiasm between the parties, we aren’t seeing it here in the 10th tonight.  

11:30 PM: I did my own round of addition again, as the counties are far outpacing the SoS. Based on the four counties, we’re up to 139 of 176 (82%) reporting, with Garamendi at 26%, Harmer at 20%, DeSaulnier at 17%, Buchanan at 12%, and Woods at 8%. 20 precincts are outstanding in Contra Costa, and 17 are left in Solano.

11:05 PM: While we wait for more updates, don’t forget there was also a special election in the basically safe seat of AD 51 in Los Angeles. With 100% in, it looks like we’ll be avoiding a general, as Democrat Steven Bradford broke 50%. He got 53%, to 19% for fellow Dem Gloria Gray and 17% for GOPer David Coffin.

10:55 PM: The SoS office is finally getting into the act. Their numbers are a pretty close match to ours: Garamendi at 27%, Harmer and DeSaulnier at 19%, Buchanan at 12%, and Woods at 7%. Remember, though, that these are California rules, so even if DeSaulnier somehow edged out Harmer in the all-party primary, Harmer still goes to the general because the top D and R advance.

10:30 PM: I broke out the ol’ abacus, so now we can have some districtwide totals (despite the SoS still not having any info). With 102 of 170 (60%) reporting, including another Contra Costa batch, Garamendi and Harmer are well in control. Garamendi has 22,345 (27%), Harmer at 16,064 (19%), DeSaulnier at 13,827 (17%), Buchanan at 9,955 (12%), and Woods at 6,870 (8%).

10:20 PM: Now we have Contra Costa and Alameda with some details. In Contra Costa, 28 of 97 are reporting. Garamendi leads at 14,459 (26%), followed by DeSaulnier not far behind (here’s where his Senate district is) at 11,743 (21%), then Harmer at 10,589 (19%) and Buchanan at 6,540 (12%). In Alameda, with 22 of 34 reporting, Garamendi leads at 2,423 (32%), Harmer at 1,565 (21%), and Buchanan at 1,060 (14%). (Use the KCBS site. Still nothing happening at the SoS office.)

10:15 PM (Crisitunity): Well, things are starting to happen. Solano County is half in (23 of 40), and Garamendi leads with 4,573 votes, 29%. Harmer is 2nd with 2,912: 19%, followed by Woods with 2,383 (15%) and Buchanan at 1,921 (12%). All of Sacramento County has reported but it’s only a sliver of the district (5 precincts out of 176 total). Garamendi dominated, winning 51% (with only 179 votes?!?).

Since Gov. Schwarzenegger has ordered the results held for the 10th District special election until 10pm Pacific (1am Eastern), it looks like us open seats fans will be burning the midnight oil tonight. But that does give you a bit of extra time to squeeze in a last-minute prediction…

RESULTS: CA SoS | KCBS

11:06PM: It’s over – Hanson wins! Congratulations! Final tally: 3,932 to 3,825. Burgmeier actually carried Wapello by four votes, but it wasn’t enough. Anyhow, this is great news… for John McCain!

10:55PM: Pass the dutchie ‘pon the lef’ han’ side… looks like our friends at the Wapello County Board of Elections are taking a bit of a ganja break.

10:38PM: The first two precincts in Wapello have come in, and they are looking good for Hanson – he leads there 339-178. Burgmeier would need to carry those last six precincts by an 18-point margin to eke out a win.

10:34PM: All of the outstanding precincts are in Wapello Co., which Obama won with 55% of the vote last fall.

10:33PM: Much closer now – 20 of 28 precincts, and Hanson’s lead is just 3,335 to 3,224.

10:22PM: Polls are closed in Iowa, and with a quarter of precincts reporting (all from Jefferson Co.), Dem Carl Hanson has a lead of 2,050 to 1,441.

---

James provided some background on both of tonight’s special elections in this earlier post. Polls close in Iowa at 10pm Eastern time, and in California at 11pm. UPDATE: Via folks in comments, Gov. Schwarzenegger has ordered that results be held until 10pm Pacific (1am Eastern) so that firefighters from the district who are fighting fires in Southern California can have extra time to vote.

Results: IA SoS | CA SoS

If you have other results links, please post `em in comments. Also, as always, you can use this thread to make predictions.

So far, the theoretically vulnerable Blanche Lincoln has been dogged by a whole pack of potential Republican challengers — but they’re more like a pack of prairie dogs than a pack of wolves, given their lack of name recognition, lack of fundraising, and propensity for racist gaffes, anti-semitic gaffes, and just generic ultra-right craziness. Unfortunately for Lincoln, she may face a somewhat smoother and more competent opponent: state Senator Gilbert Baker, who will soon enter the race according to Politico:

The Arkansas Senate picture will be getting a little more interesting: Republican state Sen. Gilbert Baker will be entering the race against Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.) today, according to two senior Republican sources.

Baker, after mulling over the race earlier this year, initially decided not to run. But after looking at polls showing Lincoln vulnerable and in the wake of a weak Republican field, he reconsidered and will be making a campaign announcement this afternoon.

Blanche Lincoln fares the worst against Baker among three GOPers polled by PPP several weeks ago (she loses 40-42 to Baker, despite his widely-unknown 7/15 favorable rating, mostly showing just how unenthused constituents are with Lincoln). Baker represents Little Rock’s northern suburbs, so he has a decent regional base to build from. He also benefits from connections from a stint as the state GOP chair, which may give him a fundraising edge.

One possible problem for Baker, though, is that some in the party view him as too moderate or at least accommodating with Democrats; Baker, for instance, is tight with Democratic state senate leader Bob Johnson, the same guy who was just talking about challenging Blanche Lincoln from the right in the Dem primary (Baker was the beneficiary of a fundraiser held by Johnson, and Baker apparently helped Johnson secure his Democratic leadership position). While that could drag him down in a primary, the hard-right end of the spectrum seems fractured among half a dozen Gong Show contestants, so, assuming he doesn’t start following everyone else’s lead and dropping too many racial slurs or F-bombs while on the campaign trail, he may have a good shot at being the nominee.

• MA-Sen: Now we know the dates for the special election to fill the seat left behind by Ted Kennedy. Deval Patrick set the dates as Dec. 8 for the primary (which will be the real focus in this dark blue state) and Jan. 19 for the general. Meanwhile, while many possible contenders are waiting to see what Joe Kennedy II does, it looks like AG Martha Coakley (who has been sizing up a Senate run for years) isn’t wasting any time. One of her representatives picked up filing papers today.

• FL-Sen: It shouldn’t be a surprise that Marco Rubio didn’t like Charlie Crist’s pick of George LeMieux as interim Senator, since approximately nobody liked it. Rubio takes to NRO to say he would have picked conservative Orlando-area state Sen. Dan Webster instead (who could still surface as a candidate in FL-08).

• IL-Sen: Cheryle Jackson, president of Chicago’s Urban League, hasn’t gotten much attention yet in the Democratic primary. However, she just got several noteworthy endorsements, from Rep. Bobby Rush and the Cook County Democratic Women Organization.

• NC-Sen: Maybe Rep. Bob Etheridge is moving toward a Senate run after all? He just launched a blistering salvo toward Richard Burr over health care reform in a DNC conference call today, attacking Burr’s “Patients Choice Act” counterproposal. Etheridge wouldn’t say anything about his intentions for 2010, though.

• NY-Sen-B: Somehow the New York Post got the ball rolling on the idea of an Eliot Spitzer comeback, either with a run for Comptroller or even Kirsten Gillibrand’s Senate seat. Spitzer quickly acted today to dispel the idea.

• SC-Sen: Democrats are back to the drawing board on a challenger for Jim DeMint. State Sen. Bradley Hutto had sounded very interested, but announced over the weekend that he won’t run. Lawyer and former Fritz Holling aide Ashley Cooper is about the only other credible name on tap.

• NJ-Gov: The police department of Lambertville, NJ – the town where Chris Christie got seemingly preferential treatment after he was pulled over for speeding back in 2005 – says that their director is “no longer returning media calls.” Sketchy, huh? Christie’s varying tales about what exactly happened at that stop aren’t helping him, either. He’s now claiming that his identity as US Attorney only came up during the incident because the tow-truck driver recognized him. Shah, right. (D)

• SC-Gov: Seems like Mark Sanford’s up to his 10th or 11th life already. After rumors that the legislature was ready to do a special session to impeach him, now the state GOP is saying it’s not ready to issue an ultimatum letter threatning impeachment (although they throw the door open to any lawmakers wanting to draft the legislation individually).

• MO-04: It’s not unusual for a challenger to have nice things he said about an incumbent thrown back in his face. But this is kind of an extreme case: GOP state Sen. Bill Stouffer, chasing 33-year Rep. Ike Skelton in the 4th, has not only called Skelton “an outstanding advocate for the people of west-central Missouri and the state as a whole” but said it while sponsoring legislation to name a bridge after Skelton.

• NY-19: Republican Assemblyman Greg Ball continues to impress, well, at least Pete Sessions; he just got named to the “On the Radar” part of the NRCC’s “Young Guns” program. He’s running against sophomore Rep. John Hall in this R+3 district.

• NY-23: Looks like Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman is gaining some traction, seeing as Republican nominee Dede Scozzafava has started attacking him in the press. This could bode well for Democrat Bill Owens – back in 2004, in a state Senate race in the same part of New York, Dem David Valesky snuck through with a narrow win after a Conservative candidate helped split the right-wing vote in the district. (D)

• WI-05: Best wishes for a speedy recovery for Wisconsin’s Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner, who has been diagnosed with treatable, early stage prostate cancer.

After months of speculation and predictions, it appears, according to multiple sources, that former Governor John Kitzhaber (D), creator of the Oregon Health Plan, will run for a third-term as Oregon governor in 2010 (The Constitution bars anyone from running for more than two CONSECUTIVE terms, legendary governor Tom McCall (R) tried to run for a third-term in a similar fashion but lost the 1978 Republican primary to future Governor Vic Atiyeh (the last Republican to hold the office).

Needless to say, this announcement has fundamentally changed the race for Oregon governor and instantly upped the ante.  My analysis is below.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/di…

One of several sources reporting Kitzhaber will join the race is Oregon’s top political reporter Jeff Mapes in this blog post: Kitzhaber nears gubernatorial announcement.

Quote:

Former Oregon Gov. John Kitzhaber appears poised to jump into the governor’s race.

The former two-term Democratic governor made several calls to top elected officials in Oregon on Monday and word swept through the state’s political community Tuesday that Kitzhaber planned to file paperwork launching his campaign within the next few hours.

The following post will briefly describe Kitzhaber’s record and analyze the impact his entry will have on the race.

Who is John Kitzhaber?

John Albert Kitzhaber is a 62-year old former emergency physician originally from Colfax, WA, although he grew up in Eugene and practiced in Roseburg (southern OR for those that don’t know).

In 1979 he ran and was elected to the Oregon House, serving one term before becoming an Oregon State Senator in 1981 and Senate President from 1985 to 1993.  In 1994, Kitzhaber was one of few Democrats nationwide who avoided the GOP tide as he narrowly won a first term as governor but was easily reelected four years later in 1998.  Upon leaving office in 2002, Kitzhaber worked on health care, founding the  Archimedes Movement in 2006 to help organize his health care reform efforts.

Kitzhaber is certainly best known as the creator of the Oregon Health Plan, Oregon’s medicaid plan made famous for its then-innovative approach to health care, based on the idea of prioritizing treatment so that the most critical treatments were funded first.  Although changed significantly since its creation in the early 1990s, this “prioritized procedures list” remains a key part of the plan to this day.

Kitzhaber’s other main accomplishment is the Oregon Salmon Plan, the hallmark of his second term, which successfully managed to maintain and in many cases increase salmon populations that were at the time collapsing.  Combined with his staunch refusal to sign any bills forwarded by the then-Republican controlled legislature that weakened the state’s environmental and land use policies, as well anything else (earning him the nickname “Dr. No” from critics), Kitzhaber became known as an environmental champion.

Impact on the Race:

Kitzhaber’s entry has profound impact on the race.  Here is how I would now rate it, assuming the announced candidates run on both sides.

Democratic Primary:

Main Candidates: Kitzhaber, Former SOS Bill Bradury, State Rep. Brian Clem (Salem).

Analysis: Kitzhaber should easily beat both these candidates.  Nothing against either of these fine public servants, whom I respect and may actually vote for but Kitzhaber is just way too well known and respected to lose the primary.

Rating: Leans/Likely Kitzhaber.

Republican Primary

Main Candidates: Former Pixelworks CEO Alan Alley, State Senator Jason Atkinson (Central Point, which is in Southern OR).

Analysis: Atkinson should win this race but it will be close.  Alley probably needs one more conservative candidate to jump in to split Atkinson’s support so that he can do what Ron Saxton did in 2006 and squeak through.  None has emerged as of yet.

Rating: Leans Atkinson.

General Election:

Assuming Kitzhaber (D) v. Atkinson (R).

Analysis: Jason Atkinson is another Republican who looks nice but is not the greatest politician in the world.  He is also WAY too conservative for many Oregon voters.  Given that Kitzhaber is not a “Portland candidate” (and trust me this matters), I don’t think Atkinson will be able to pull it out.  Still, it could be close so I’ll rate it that way for now.

Rating: Leans Kitzhaber.

Let me know what you think.

Quinnipiac (8/25-30, likely voters, 8/5-9 in parens):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 37 (40)

Chris Christie (R): 47 (46)

Chris Daggett (I): 9 (7)

(MoE: ±2.4%)

Fairleigh Dickinson (8/24-30, registered voters, 6/22-29 in parens):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 42 (39)

Chris Christie (R): 47 (45)

(MoE: ±4%)

Fairleigh Dickinson did not include Chris Daggett in their poll, but 1% of respondents volunteered his name. In any event, after seeing Christie suffering a prolonged stretch of bad press followed by a pair of polls showing Corzine inching back, these polls have to be considered as something of a disappointment for Corzine fans.

Nobody has really made any moves yet in the Oregon Governor’s race for 2010, as everyone who’s not ex-Governor John Kitzhaber seems to be waiting to see what he does. According to Willamette Week, we may have some answers soon:

WW has confirmed that former Gov. John Kitzhaber will file paperwork Tuesday to proceed with plans to run for governor in 2010. He has notified at least three state-wide officials of his plans.

Kitzhaber previously served as Oregon governor from 1995 to 2003.

No confirmation yet from the Oregonian‘s Jeff Mapes, Oregon’s go-to politial reporter, but he did report yesterday that Kitzhaber would be announcing something as early as this week, although it was unclear whether it would be yes or no. Now it’s sounding like yes. (UPDATE already: Now Mapes is saying yes, too.)

Kitzhaber’s early presence in the race would probably serve to drive out most significant competition, both Rep. Peter DeFazio in the primary and Rep. Greg Walden for the GOP — although there hasn’t been any indication that either one was making any hard plans to run. Kitzhaber polled well against all comers in June’s R2K poll of the race.

RaceTracker Wiki: OR-Gov

Previous diaries

Summary:

  SC has 6 reps: 4 Republicans and 2 Democrats

  SD has 1 rep: A Democrat

  TN has 9 reps: 4 Republicans and 5 Democrats

Possibly vulnerable:

  SC-01 (R)

Sources:

House vote in 2008 from AOL

VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)

Race Tracker

Obama vote by CD from Swing State

National Atlas for maps

and my previous diaries.

District: SC-01

Location Almost all of coastal SC, bordering NC and the Atlantic, including Charleston  map

Cook PVI R + 10

Representative Henry Brown (R)

VoteView  317

First elected 2000

2008 margin 52-48 over Linda Ketner

2006 margin 60-38

2004 margin 88-12 (vs. a Green)

Obama margin 42-56

Bush margin 2004 61-39

Current opponents A primary and then possibly Robert Dobbs(others are considering)

Demographics   17th most veterans (17.2%), 78th most Blacks (20.9%)

Assessment At least possible; 2008 was close

District: SC-02

Location Southern SC, stretching north to the middle of the state, bordering GA and the Atlantic, including Columbia  map

Cook PVI R + 9

Representative Joe Wilson (R)

VoteView  404

First elected 2001

2008 margin 54-46 over Robert Miller

2006 margin 63-37

2004 margin 65-33

Obama margin 45-54

Bush margin 2004 60-39

Current opponents Robert Miller is running again.

Demographics  70th most veterans (15.1%), 60th most Blacks (26.2%)

Assessment Might be possible, Miller wasn’t that far back in 2008. But not likely.

District: SC-03

Location Northwestern SC, bordering GA  map

Cook PVI R + 17

Representative Gresham Barrett (R) retiring to run for governor

VoteView  430

First elected NA

2008 margin NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 35-64

Bush margin 2004 66-34

Current opponents A bunch of Republicans are running; the only confirmed Democrat is Jane Dyer

Demographics  49th most rural (49.7%), 80th most Blacks (20.5%), 36th most Republican

Assessment Pretty sure to be Republican

District: SC-04

Location  Northern SC, bordering NC  map

Cook PVI R + 15

Representative Bob Inglis (R)

VoteView 402.5

First elected 2004

2008 margin 60-37 over Paul Corden

2006 margin 64-32

2004 margin 70-29

Obama margin 38-60

Bush margin 2004 65-34

Current opponents There is a big Republican primary, but no confirmed Democrat.

Demographics  Not unusual on what I track.

Assessment Long shot

District: SC-05

Location  map

Cook PVI R + 7

Representative John Spratt (D)

VoteView  198.5

First elected 1988

2008 margin 62-37 over Albert Spencer

2006 margin 57-43

2004 margin 63-37

Obama margin 46-53

Bush margin 2004 57-42

Current opponents None declared

Demographics   35h most rural (53.3%), 80th fewest Latinos (1.8%)

Assessment looks pretty safe

District: SC-06

Location  Southeastern quarter of SC, bordering the Atlantic, excluding Charleston map

Cook PVI D + 12

Representative James Clyburn (D)

VoteView 67

First elected 1992

2008 margin 68-32 over Nancy Harrelson

2006 margin 64-34

2004 margin 67-31

Obama margin 64-35

Bush margin 2004 39-61

Current opponents None declared

Demographics  40th most rural (52.0%), 17th lowest income (median = $29K) 66th fewest Whites (40.3%), 14th most Blacks (56.7%), 58th fewest Latinos (1.5%)

Assessment Safe

District: SD-01

Location The whole state map

Cook PVI R + 9

Representative Stephanine Herseth Sandlin (D)

VoteView  215

First elected 2004

2008 margin 68-32 over Chris Lien

2006 margin 69-29

2004 margin 53-46

Obama margin 45-53

Bush margin 2004 60-38

Current opponents Thad Wasson is the only confirmed Republican, others are considering

Demographics  58th most rural (48.1%), 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%), 51st fewest Latinos (1.4%), 66th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (mostly 8.1% Native Americans).

Assessment Safe

District: TN-01

Location Eastern TN, bordering VA and NC  map

Cook PVI R + 21

Representative Phil Roe (R)

VoteView  394.5

First elected 2006

2008 margin 72-25 over Rob Russell

2006 margin 61-37

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 29-70

Bush margin 2004 68-31

Current opponents None declared

Demographics  71st most rural (44.6%), 38th lowest income (median = $31K), 16th most White (95%), 83rd fewest Blacks (2.1%), 58th fewest Latinos (1.5%), 16th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: TN-02

Location Eastern TN, including Knoxville.  Borders NC  map

Cook PVI R + 16

Representative John Duncan (R)

VoteView  434

First elected 1988

2008 margin 69-27 over Doug Vandagriff

2006 margin 78-22

2004 margin 79-19

Obama margin 34-64

Bush margin 2004 64-35

Current opponents None declared

Demographics  73rd most White (90.1%), 41st fewest Latinos (1.3%), 40th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: TN-03

Location Shaped sort of like a barbell, running from the GA border in the south, then narrowing and running NE to the VA and KY borders, where it widens again map

Cook PVI R + 13

Representative Zach Wamp (R) Retiring to run for governor

VoteView  353.5

First elected 1994

2008 margin NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 37-62

Bush margin 2004 61-38

Current opponents Although there are lots of people considering running, the only confirmed Democrat is Paula Flowers

Demographics   67th fewest Latinos (1.3%)

Assessment Long shot

District: TN-04

Location  Shaped like a lopsided U, starting south of Nashville in the middle of the state, south to the AL border, east to the GA border, then north to the KY border map

Cook PVI R + 13

Representative Lincoln Davis (D)

VoteView  221

First elected 2002

2008 margin 59-38 over Monty Lankford

2006 margin 66-34

2004 margin 55-44

Obama margin 34-64

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Current opponents Monty Lankford

Demographics  4th most rural (67.9%), 46th lowest income (median = $32K), 48th most Whites (92.6%), 68th fewest Latinos (1.6%)

Assessment Safe

District: TN-05

Location Nashville and suburbs  map

Cook PVI D + 3

Representative Jim Cooper (D)

VoteView  197

First elected 2002

2008 margin 66-31 over Gerald Donovan

2006 margin 69-28

2004 margin 69-31

Obama margin 56-43

Bush margin 2004 48-52

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  68th most Blacks (23.4%)

Assessment Safe

District: TN-06

Location Central part of northern TN bordering KY  map

Cook PVI R + 13

Representative Bart Gordon (D)

VoteView  209

First elected 1984

2008 margin 74-26 over an independent

2006 margin 67-31

2004 margin 64-34

Obama margin 37-62

Bush margin 2004 60-40

Current opponents Dave Evans and Gary Mann are in a Republican primary.

Demographics  63rd most rural (46.8%)

Assessment Safe

District: TN-07

Location Another strange shaped district.  Most of it is in southwestern TN, bordering MS and AL, but it stretches north and east to the suburbs of Nashville, then north to the KY border  map

Cook PVI R + 18

Representative Marsha Blackburn (R)

VoteView  407.5

First elected 2002

2008 margin 69-31 over Randy Morris

2006 margin 66-32

2004 margin Unopposed

Obama margin  33-66

Bush margin 2004 66-33

Current opponents Gary Rabidoux

Demographics  95th most rural (39.0%), 28th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: TN-08

Location Northwestern TN, bordering AR, MO and KY  map

Cook PVI R + 6

Representative John Tanner (D)

VoteView  220

First elected 1988

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin 73-27

2004 margin 74-26

Obama margin 43-56

Bush margin 2004 53-47

Current opponents James Hart and Donn James in a Republican primary.

Demographics   36th most rural (53.0%), 64th lowest income (median = $33K), 38th most Blacks (22.3%), 67th fewest Latinos (1.6%)

Assessment Safe

District: TN-09

Location Memphis and suburbs, bordering AR and MS  map

Cook PVI D + 23

Representative Steve Cohen (D)

VoteView  142

First elected 2006

2008 margin No Republican

2006 margin 60-22

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 77-22

Bush margin 2004 30-70

Current opponents There is a primary, but no declared Republican running

Demographics  76th lowest income (median = $34K), 56th fewest Whites (34.9%), 10th most Blacks (59.5%), 38th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

Just a quick reminder to all of our readers that two competitive special elections will be held tonight. In California’s 10th CD, multiple candidates from all parties will face off for the right to succeed Ellen Tauscher in the House. While Tauscher’s seat has a D+11 PVI, the NRCC has signaled some interest in the race, lifting attorney David Harmer to “On The Radar” status in its recently-relaunched “Young Guns” program — so it’ll be interesting to see how big of a share the GOP vote is tomorrow. Recent polling suggests that Lt. Gov. John Garamendi (D) and Harmer are the favorites to advance to the next round of voting, so other Democrats, like state Sen. Mark DeSaulnier, will have to hope for a lopsided turnout effort in order to grab an upset.

Further down the ballot and a couple time zones away, there will also be an open state House seat up for grabs. It’s another Dem-held seat, with the vacancy created when Tom Vilsack tapped farmer and sitting Rep. John Whitaker to head the Farm Service Agency in Iowa. Democrats hold a plurality of the district’s voters in terms of registration, but the GOP is hoping to entice enough conservative Democrats over to their side — aided in part by a massive effort by the National Organization for Marriage to paint the election as a referendum on same-sex marriage. The Iowa Independent and Governing.com’s Ballot Box both have comprehensive summaries of the race, and the indefatigable desmoinesdem of Bleeding Heartland fame has all the latest dope on the race here and here.

As usual, we’ll have results links for you to follow as polls close, and will post occasional updates on the latest score as the votes are counted.