Swing State Project

According to Chris Cillizza, earlier today Rep. Mark Kirk suddenly dropped out of the Illinois Senate race as quick as he got in. Apparently he didn’t take kindly to having to run in a primary and the withholding of his Illinois Republican House colleagues’ support:

Kirk’s decision, a blow to Senate Republicans’ chances in Illinois, came in the wake of Burris’ formal retirement this afternoon.

It also followed a meeting of the Illinois Republican congressional delegation on Thursday in which his colleagues refused to back Kirk in a primary against Illinois Republican Party Chairman Andy McKenna due, in large part, to his vote in favor of President Barack Obama’s climate change bill.

However, Cillizza posted a quick update, which indicates that the GOP may be forced to capitulate to Kirk’s little tantrum:

[T]here is an ongoing effort now to convince him to re-think that decision, according to several sources close to the discussions. Pressure is now being brought to bear on Andy McKenna, who, according to knowledgeable sources, had told Republicans insiders that he would not run if Kirk got into the race.

We’ll have to keep you posted.

UPDATE: Politico says McKenna will make his final decision this weekend about whether to stay in the race or not, and:

Rep. Judy Biggert (R-Ill.) spoke with Kirk this afternoon and he told her he was still planning on running, according to Kathleen Lydon, Biggert’s chief of staff.  Kirk had already scheduled July 20 as the date for his Senate kickoff announcement.

LATER UPDATE (James Hell): Kirk lays it all down pretty definitively to the Hotline here:

After much ‘Will he? Or won’t he?’ speculation this afternoon about GOP Rep. Mark Kirk’s desire to run for Senate in IL, Kirk said in an email to The Hotline that he was “still talking to Andy. We are trying to avoid a primary.”

The “Andy” he references is IL GOP Chair Andy McKenna, who has made serious signals in recent days of his intention to run. When asked if this means that he may ultimately forgo a run, Kirk replied: “I will run if Andy does not.”

RaceTracker: IL-Sen

• WI-Gov: Hot on the heels of changing Ohio to Lean Dem yesterday, today we’re downgrading the Wisconsin gubernatorial race to Lean Dem as well. We aren’t reacting to any one recent event (the only two polls so far have dramatically disparate results, but they average out to a tight race), but realized that we had no business keeping WI-Gov at Likely Dem if OH-Gov is going to be Lean Dem.

• CA-Sen: Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina seems to be moving toward running against Barbara Boxer after all, not taking formal steps but rubbing elbows with the right people. Here’s some ill-timed bad PR for her, though: Fiorina has been telling people that she’s now CEO of her own company (Carly Fiorina Enterprises) and her own foundation (Fiorina Foundation), but neither one has been registered with the proper state or federal authorities… which might lead some to question her vaunted business organization skills.

• IL-Sen: The Fix reports that alleged field-clearing heavyweight Rep. Mark Kirk may still face a contested GOP primary in the Senate race; state party chair Andy McKenna, recruited as the GOP’s Plan B, seems to be staying in for now, and the state’s Republican congressional delegation is staying, at least publicly, neutral. The flashpoint may be Kirk’s recent vote in favor of cap-and-trade.

• MO-Sen: In the “did he really just say that file?” Roy Blunt offers up a doozy: in a conservative talk radio interview, he said that maybe it would have been better if the federal government had never created Medicare, Medicaid, or VA health care, because it “distorts the marketplace.” Way to put the senior citizen vote in play there, Roy!

• NV-Sen: Off-the-record GOP consultants say that a John Ensign resignation may be “on the table” and that there are worries that there may still be even more undisclosed payments to the Hamptons floating around. If there are public calls for resignation from the other key GOPers in Nevada — Gov. Jim Gibbons, Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki, Rep. Dean Heller — it’s time to prepare the fork for sticking (of course, with two of those three in deep scandal of their own, there’s a certain pot/kettle thing going on).

• PA-Sen: Arlen Specter made his first aggressive moves against possible primary challenger Rep. Joe Sestak today, calling him a “flagrant hypocrite” for not being a Democrat until 2006. (Sestak was an Independent during his decades of military service, and switched to Dem once he was out of the service.) Hmmm… remind me again which year Arlen Specter became a Democrat? Meanwhile, on the GOP side, the NRSC just can’t help themselves from hiking the Appalachian Trail despite their efforts to fall back in love with Pat Toomey. They’ve been talking behind the scenes with state Sen. Jane Orie about running in the primary (although she’s almost as conservative as Toomey, so it’s not clear what benefit that would provide).

• AK-Gov: Guess who’s saying “thanks but no thanks” to the assistance offered by the divine Sarah Palin: the GOP candidates in the two very-close blue-state gubernatorial races this year, Chris Christie and Bob McDonnell. (On the other hand, Rick Perry, who needs to rally every wingnut he can get his hands on in order to win his primary in Texas, welcomes her.) The Hill also sniffs out a number of other candidates facing possibly tough races who’d like her to stay far, far away, including Reps. Lee Terry, Frank Wolf, Mike Castle, and Pete Hoekstra. (In his efforts to become World’s Most Tone-Deaf Man, Roy Blunt welcomes her help, though.) Finally, check out Peggy Noonan‘s authoritative takedown of Palin today; say what you will about the whole pure evil thing, the woman has a way with words.

• PA-Gov: With a lot of people looking at the Democratic field in the Governor’s race and asking “is that all there is?” a familiar face is considering the race: Montgomery Co. Commissioner (and former Rep. and 2004 Senate candidate) Joe Hoeffel. In his favor, he’d be the only elected official from the Philly area in the race (Tom Knox is from Philly, but has never held office).

• IL-10: With Rep. Mark Kirk kindly leaving an open seat for us, both the Daily Herald and Roll Call take a look at the developing fields in this race. On the Dem side, the leading contenders are state Sens. Michael Bond (already in the race) and Susan Garrett. Dan Seals, who lost in 2006 and 2008 to Kirk, is also considering a third try. The only GOPer in the race is Patricia Bird, but businessman Dick Green and state Rep. Elizabeth Coulson are likely contestants.

• NY-23: Don’t count out state Sen. Darrel Aubertine on becoming the Democratic candidate in NY-23, despite the ongoing craziness in the New York state Senate. Although the July 17 filing deadline is coming up and he hasn’t made any noise about it, Aubertine is still considering it and will have the requisite family sit-down about it once he has the time (which maybe he’ll have, now that the Senate is back to “normal”).

• VA-05: Rep. Tom Perriello has become the focus in the tug-of-war over cap-and-trade. A week after the NRCC made him the sole target of a TV attack ad for voting in favor, the League of Conservation Voters is running thank-you ads in his central Virginia district.

• Mayors: Louisiana Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu has options, but he ruled out a third run at New Orleans mayor, for which he’d been considered front-runner. A run for Governor in 2011 (or maybe not until the open seat in 2015) now seems likelier. This leaves city councilor Arnie Fielkow in the driver’s seat for the next mayoral election.

• Caucuses: This seems like an odd time for this to happen, in the middle of the fight over health care reform: the Congressional Progessive Caucus canned its executive director, Bill Goold, without much explanation.

Yes, I have created another Democratic gerrymander. I think the redistrictors in Arizona  must create competitive districts. I was able to create some competitive ones. My main objectives were to strengthen Gabrielle Giffords, Ann Kirkpatrick and Harry Mitchell. They are all Democrats elected to the U.S House in 2006 and 2008 in districts that McCain won in the single digits. Except maybe for Kirkpatrick, I probably strengthened those Democrats. I was able to weaken John Shadegg enough to attract strong competition. As for the other Republicans, I kept their district safely Republican while creating two new Republican districts. I had to do that because all those Republicans had to go somewhere. It is pretty difficult to aim for a 5-5 or 6-4 Democratic delegation in a state McCain won with 53% of the vote. Now here are the maps.

Northern Arizona

Southern Arizona

Phoenix area

Tucson area

District 1 Ann Kirkpatrick (D) Blue

I am sorry I could not strengthen Kirkpatrick much. The best I could do was to remove only a small slice of Conservative Yavapai County. Also, I wish I could include the Hopi Reservation to allow more Democrats but because of a rivalry with the Navajo, I am unable to put both tribes in the same districts. Except for taking out a bit of Yavapai County, the district pretty much remains the same. Since Kirkpatrick easily won here by 16 points, she should be safe enough. McCain probably won 53% of the vote here. Racial stats are 16% Hispanic, 21% Native American and 60% White. Status is Likely Democratic.

District 2 Trent Franks (R) Green

This district stays pretty much the same except I moved a bit of eastern Glendale and western Phoenix out of the district. I took in some White parts of Yuma County and a bit more of Coconino County which totals to about only 7,000 people. This district probably voted about 60% for McCain. Racial stats are 17% Hispanic and 73% White. Status is Safe Republican.

District 3 John Shadegg (R) Bright Purple

Shadegg should be in for a tough race with this map. I removed the more Conservative northern part of his district. Even though I slipped in part of the current Republican 2nd district, this should not alter the political leanings of this district enough. To weaken Shadegg tremendously, I added in parts of the heavily Hispanic 4th district. This increases the Hispanic population from 14% to 30%. In 2008, Shadegg said he wanted to retire and then retracted the statement. Such a shaky district would probably propel him to retire. With Shadegg gone, this district is a prime pickup for the Democrats. The redistricting panel will like it because it is competitive enough. Obama probably won 51% of the vote here and he certainly would have won more voters if McCain were not from Arizona. The racial stats are 30% Hispanic and 59% White. Status is Toss Up if Shadegg stays, Lean Democrat if he retires.

District 4 Ed Pastor (D) Red

I had to move this district into some Republican areas to strengthen Obama’s performance in other districts. I remember Michael Barone in the Almanac of American Politics 2006 said that Republicans can dominate because they win fast growing areas. Well Michael, did you know that the fastest growing Arizona district is the heavily Hispanic 4th? The growth of Hispanics has been useful in shoring up other districts. Still, Ed Pastor should be fine in this majority Hispanic district. Obama probably won 64% of the vote here. Racial stats are 6% African American, 58% Hispanic and 31% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 5 Harry Mitchell (D) Yellow

I removed most of northern Scottsdale from the district and part of Tempe. I substituted that by adding part of the current 4th district to boost the Hispanic population here. Mitchell is in his late 60’s and he may retire soon. This district should be safe for him or any other Democrat who represents it. Minorities should become the majority here in a few years. Obama probably won 54% of the vote here. Racial stats are 5% African American, 34% Hispanic and 53% White. Status is Likely Democrat if Mitchell retires, Safe Democrat while he represents it.

District 6 Jeff Flake (R) Teal

I kept Flake’s district pretty much the way it used to be. I removed all of Pinal County and kept the district centered on Mesa (just for trivia, Mesa is larger than Cleveland, OH but most people in the East have never heard of it.)  There are a few Hispanic neighborhoods in Mesa but they should not be nearly enough to offset the Republican majorities in the rest of the city. McCain probably won 60% of the vote here. Racial stats are 23% Hispanic and 68% White. Status is Safe Republican.

District 7 Raul Griljava (D) Gray

This district is about the same except I moved most of the Tucson area and substituted it with heavily Hispanic areas in Phoenix. I took out some Republican areas in Yuma as well as La Paz County. The Pinal County portion stays the same except I added a few Hispanic precincts. Since this district has a Hispanic majority, Griljava should not worry. Obama probably won 55% of the vote here. That should be safe enough. Racial stats are 5% African American, 5% Native American, 54% Hispanic and 34% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 8 Gabrielle Giffords (D) Purple

One of my priorities was to protect Giffords from a strong challenge even though she seems pretty safe in her district. To protect her, I removed every inch of Cochise County from this district and replaced it with almost all of Tucson and some Hispanic areas in Pinal County. With Republican battles for the 10th district over in Cochise County, Giffords should have no strong opponent. Obama probably won 54% of the vote here. Racial stats are 35% Hispanic and 55% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 9 No Incumbent (R) Light blue

If a Republican does not win here, I am shocked. I removed the whitest areas I could find from the 3rd and 5th districts and slipped in parts of the 6th district due to population growth. It would be great if someone could tell me about state legislators who might run here but former Congressman J.D Hayworth might take a run at this seat. I imagine there will be a big Republican battle for the seat but Democrats will have token opposition. McCain probably received 62% of the vote here. Racial stats are 12% Hispanic (the lowest amount for any of my districts) and 81% White (the highest for any of my districts.) Status is Safe Republican.

District 10 No Incumbent (R) Pink

This district basically takes in Republican parts of the old 8th, 7th and 1st districts. With the more Democratic areas in those districts, the 10th should stay heavily Republican. The only possible problem is growth of Hispanics but that should not be an issue for awhile. The competition in this district will be in the Republican primary. The candidates could be Randy Graf from the southern part of the district or someone from Maricopa/Pinal County. McCain probably won 59%-60% of the vote here. Racial stats are 22% Hispanic and 69% White. Status is Safe Republican.

Previous diaries:

Today: Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware

Summary:

Colorado has 7 representatives: 5 Democrats and 2 Republicans.  The only seat that might be in danger is Markey’s in CO-04

Connecticut has 5 representative, all Democrats

Delaware has 1 representative, a Republican, and its a potential gain for the Democrats.

Sources:

House vote in 2008 from WaPo

VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)

Race Tracker

Obama vote by CD from Swing State

National Atlas for maps

and my previous diaries.

District: CO-01

Location This oddly shaped district includes metro Denver, southern suburbs like Glendale, south to Sheridan and Cherry Hills Village, and northeast in a stair step pattern map

Cook PVI D+21

Representative Diana DeGette (D)

VoteView rank 93/447

First elected  1996

2008 margin 72-24 over George Lilly

2006 margin 80-20 (against a Green)

2004 margin 73-25

Obama margin 74-24

Bush margin 2004 31-68

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 30% Latino (49th place)

Assessment Safe

District: CO-02

Location Boulder, and points west, in the Rockies.  Also the exurbs of Denver map

Cook PVI  D +11

Representative Jared Polis

VoteView rank 187.5/447

First elected  2008

2008 margin 62-34 over Scott Starin

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin NA

Bush margin 2004 41-58

Current opponents Scott Starin is running again.

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Polis won easily in 2008, should be safe

District: CO-03

Location Western Colorado (bordering UT), and east along the southern edge (bordering NM), includes Durango and Pueblo and Aspen map

Cook PVI R + 5

Representative John Salazar (D) Not confirmed

VoteView rank 207/447

First elected  2004

2008 margin 61-39 over Wayne Wolf

2006 margin 62-37

2004 margin 51-47

Obama margin 47-50

Bush margin 2004 55-44

Current opponents Martin Beeson

Demographics Relatively rural (39%, 95th place) few Blacks (0.7%, 23rd least) or Asians (0.5%, rank NA) but 21.5% Latino (69th most)

Assessment This is a Republican district, but Salazar, a moderate Democrat, seems safe.  It’d be nice to have a more progressive rep, but better a blue dog than a red Repub.  

District: CO-04

Location Shaped like a backwards F, this is eastern CO (bordering KS and NE) and moves a bit west to Fort Collins (bordering WY) and the northwestern suburbs of Denver map

Cook PVI R + 6

Representative Betsey Markey (D) Not confirmed

VoteView rank NA

First elected  2008

2008 margin 56-44 over Marilyn Musgrave

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 49-50

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Current opponents  Two confirmed Republicans and a bunch of possibles (see Wiki

Demographics 23rd fewest Blacks (0.7%)

Assessment This is a Republican district; Musgrave was an awful person; even if Markey runs, it will probably be hard-fought.

District: CO-05

Location Central CO, including Colorado Springs map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative Doug Lamborn (R)

VoteView rank 439.5/447

First elected  2006

2008 margin 60-37 over Hal Bidlack

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 40-59

Bush margin 2004 66-33

Current opponents None declared.  Possible primary challenge

Demographics More veterans than all but 4 districts, and the 33rd most Republican district.

Assessment A long shot

District: CO-06

Location Exurbs of Denver, and a large area south and east of Denver map

Cook PVI R + 8

Representative Mike Coffman (R) Not confirmed

VoteView rank NA

First elected  2008

2008 margin 60-40 over Hank Eng

2006 margin 59-40

2004 margin 59-39

Obama margin 46-53

Bush margin 2004 60-39

Current opponents Two declared Democrats:

David Canter

and

John Flerlage

I don’t have a strong sense of either of them.

Assessment This is a Republican district; if Coffman runs, it’s a longshot.  Even if he does not, it will be tough.

District: CO-07

Location More of suburban Denver, and a long strip eastward map

Cook PVI D + 4

Representative Ed Perlmutter (D)

VoteView rank 203.5/447

First elected  2006

2008 margin 63-37 over John Lerew

2006 margin 55-42

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 59-40

Bush margin 2004 48-51

Current opponents Brian Campbell

Demographics Not unusual in what I track

Assessment Of the Democrats in CO, this is probably the  least safe, but the Republicans don’t even have a declared candidate

District: CT-01

Location Shaped like a backwards C, including Hartford and suburbs, running north to tha border of MA, and looping south and then west to almost form a circle map

Cook PVI D + 13

Representative John Larson (D) Not confirmed

VoteView rank 119.5

First elected  1998

2008 margin 71-26 over Joe Visconti

2006 margin 74-26

2004 margin 73-27

Obama margin 66-33

Bush margin 2004 39-60

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on things I track

Assessment Safe

District: CT-02

Location Eastern CT, bordering RI, MA and Long Island Sound, including Storrs and New London map

Cook PVI D + 6

Representative Joe Courtney (D)

VoteView rank 137/447

First elected  2006

2008 margin 65-32 over Sean Sullivan

2006 margin 83 votes

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 59-40

Bush margin 2004  44-54

Current opponents Matthew Daly and Daria Novak

Demographics 31st fewest people in poverty (5.8%)

Assessment One close race, one easy victory.  I won’t say “safe” but it looks good.  Novak’s website is like a joke (see the Wiki for a link), with no  issues and some pix of her at a tea party. Daly has a more professional website, but he’s a wingnut, not suited to the district.

District: CT-03

Location New Haven and areas around it map

Cook PVI D + 9

Representative Rosa DeLauro

VoteView rank 93/447

First elected  1990

2008 margin 77-20 over Bo Itshaky

2006 margin 76-22

2004 margin 72-25

Obama margin 63-36

Bush margin 2004 42-56

Current opponents Itshaky is running again.

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: CT-04

Location NYC suburbs – Stamford, Darien, Norwalk, Bridgeport, bordering NY and Long Island Sound map

Cook PVI D + 5

Representative Jim Himes (D)

VoteView rank NA

First elected  2008

2008 margin 51-48 over Chris Shays

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 60-40

Bush margin 2004 48-52

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 30th richest district (median income = $67K)

Assessment Himes won a close one over the incumbent Shays; how safe this is probably depends on the opponent.

District: CT-05

Location Western CT, bordering NY and MA, but going inland to New Britain and Meriden map

Cook PVI D + 2

Representative Chris Murphy (D)

VoteView rank 142/447

First elected  2006

2008 margin 59-39 over David Capiello

2006 margin 54-44

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 56-42

Bush margin 2004 49-49

Current opponents Justin Bernier

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Probably safe.

District: DE-AL

Location Delaware.  

Cook PVI D + 7

Representative Mike Castle (R) Not confirmed

VoteView rank 250/447

First elected  1992

2008 margin 61-38 over Karen Hartley Nagle

2006 margin 57-39

2004 margin 69-30

Obama margin 62-37

Bush margin 2004 46-53

Current opponents John Carney and Scott Spencer; neither website has much on the issues.

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Castle used to win more easily, and he’s getting older, and has been ill, and Delaware is more and more Democratic…. we have a shot!

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (7/6-8, likely voters, no trendlines):

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 44

John Kasich (R): 39

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±4%)

R2K is now the third straight pollster to peg Strickland in the mid-to-low 40s, apparently solving the OH-Gov polling mystery. This is not a pretty chart:

One important thing to note, though: R2K has Obama’s favorables at 59-35 in Ohio, while Quinnipiac pegs them at 49-44. R2K is probably the outlier, though, as the two firms show similar favorables for Strickland, and Q’s job approval numbers for Obama now match up with PPP’s.

As a result of this recent nosedive, the Swing State Project is changing its rating on OH-Gov from Likely Dem to Lean Dem. Of course, it’s early; if Strickland can pull out of this tailspin, then we’ll be ready to adjust our rating once again as needed.

R2K also looked at the Senate race:

Lee Fisher (D): 22

Jennifer Brunner (D): 17

Undecided: 61

(MoE: ±5%)

Lee Fisher (D): 42

Rob Portman (R): 35

Undecided: 23

Jennifer Brunner (D): 40

Rob Portman (R): 36

Undecided: 24

(MoE: ±4%)

These numbers are very similar to those shown by Quinnipiac and PPP.

RaceTracker: OH-Gov | OH-Sen

UT-Austin (6/11-22, GOP voters, 2/24-3/6 in parens):

Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): 27 (36)

Rick Perry (R-inc): 38 (30)

Leo Berman (R): 1

Other: 7 (11)

Undecided: 26 (24)

(MoE: ±5.2%)

This is the third poll we’ve seen of the Texas gubernatorial primary since May (Rasmussen gave Perry a four-point lead, but a Baselice internal for Perry had KBH ahead by seven), and they all point to what appears to be one hell of a battle ahead of us. Despite KBH’s broad popularity in the state, Perry is still posting competitive numbers, and he’s no pushover when it comes to fundraising, either; he ended June with $9 million in the bank after raising $4.2 million in the last nine days of the month (the first period of the year in which he could legally accept donations).

Of course, with this poll’s rather rotund margin of error and its elongated sampling period, take this one with as many grains of salt as you desire. Less useful are these numbers of the Democratic primary:

Kinky Friedman (D): 13

Leticia Van de Putte (D): 12

Tom Schieffer (D): 3

Mark Thompson (D): 2

Someone else: 14

Undecided: 62

(MoE: ±6%)

Yeah, that’s right: Kinky Effin’ Friedman is leading the Democratic pack at this point, just barely nosing non-candidate Leticia Van de Putte. (Although, I suppose that “Someone else” technically has the lead…) Not included in this poll is former Travis Co. DA Ronnie Earle, who recently filed papers for a statewide run. It’s unclear, though, if Earle is more interested in Governor or Attorney General.

UT also included a Senate special election question in this round, and they found Democrat John Sharp leading the pack with a whopping 10% of the vote, followed closely by a pack of seven other candidates. With 62% of the electorate undecided, I think we can sit on this one until the race becomes a bit more defined. Full results are available here.

RaceTracker: TX-Gov | TX-Sen

Public Policy Polling (7/7-8, registered voters):

R.T. Rybak (D): 43

Norm Coleman (R): 37

Mark Dayton (D): 41

Norm Coleman (R): 39

Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D): 34

Norm Coleman (R): 42

(MoE: ±2.5%)

Perhaps bolstered by the recent spate of reports that Norm Coleman (now in need of a new job) is considering running for Governor, PPP took a decidedly Coleman-centric approach in their first poll of next year’s Minnesota governor’s race. (Which is fine; they had to start somewhere, considering that there are at least 10 interested candidates on both the Democratic and Republican sides of the ledger, and they probably didn’t want to run a poll with 100 permutations.)

It looks like Norm Coleman may have done himself no favors by dragging out the aftermath of the Minnesota Senate race for so long. Coleman sports dreadful 38-52 favorables, and 54% of respondents say that his conduct during the post-election scrum made them less likely to vote for him (as opposed to 26% saying “more likely”). Coleman loses head-to-heads against popular Minneapolis mayor R.T. Rybak (who has 37-24 favorables) and even, by 2 points, against luckless former Senator Mark Dayton (who has 36-37 favorables). Coleman does manage to beat state House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (who has only 24-33 favorables). Of course, with such wide-open fields, it seems distinctly possible that none of the persons mentioned above will be around for the general election; I’m left wondering how these same Democrats would fare against a more generic Republican.

RaceTracker: MN-Gov

So says the Chicago Sun-Times:

Sneed has learned U.S. Sen. Roland Burris has decided NOT to seek election to the seat he fought the government to keep.

Sen. Burris is planning to announce his decision Friday by issuing a statement to the press. But he’s reportedly not planning to field any questions from the press.

The decision by Burris was based on his inability to raise campaign funds; campaign disclosures with the Federal Election Commission are expected to be filed next week…and he has reportedly only raised approximately $20,000

Presumably Burris is also seeking an early exit in order to spend more time with his mausoleum.

RaceTracker: IL-Sen

Man, this is turning into a crazy day:

Sen. John Ensign (R-Nev.) Thursday acknowledged that his family made nearly $100,000 in payments to family members of his former mistress after her husband, a longtime aide and personal friend, discovered the relationship.

Since Ensign admitted his affair with former campaign staffer Cynthia Hampton, he has repeatedly denied making payments to her, her husband, Doug, or other members of the family.

But in a statement released by his attorney Thursday afternoon, Ensign for the first time acknowledged that in April 2008, his family – backed by his father’s casino and land development empire – made a series of payments to both Hamptons and their children, totaling $96,000.

“In April 2008, Senator John Ensign’s parents each made gifts to Doug Hampton, Cindy Hampton, and two of their children in the form of a check totaling $96,000. Each gift was limited to $12,000. The payments were made as gifts, accepted as gifts and complied with tax rules governing gifts. After the Senator told his parents about the affair, his parents decided to make the gifts out of concern for the well-being of long-time family friends during a difficult time. The gifts are consistent with a pattern of generosity by the Ensign family to the Hamptons and others,” Ensign’s lawyer Paul Coggins said in a statement.

Pattern of generosity! I think Ensign needs to resign. It’s not just the payoffs, but the fact that he lied about them and tried to hide them.

Whoa whoa whoa:

The Senate deadlock may be over.

Rogue Democrat Pedro Espada Jr., who collaborated with Republicans in a June 8 coup that toppled Majority Leader Malcolm Smith, is returning to the fold, sources said.

That will give Democrats a 32-30 majority and, ostensibly, allow the Senate to convene and vote on crucial legislation, like mayoral control of city schools and a city sales tax hike.

Under the deal, Malcolm Smith will be the Senate president, several senators said.

Espada (D-Bronx) and Democratic conference leader John Sampson will serve as co-majority leaders, they said.

Jesus wow.

UPDATE: Espada is scum, the Senate leaders suck, this has been a huge mess & massive waste of money… but the one silver lining here is that Tom Golisano can seriously, seriously suck it.