Swing State Project

Longtime SSP readers surely remember the brief flirtation of former New York Rangers superstar Mike Richter with a run against then-Rep. Chris Shays in Connecticut’s 4th District back in the early days of 2007. Serious SSP fans will also remember Richter’s name popping up earlier this year as a potential candidate for the 20th CD special election to replace Kirsten Gillibrand. Mike Richter is a name that simply won’t go away whenever it comes to suburan/exurban NYC political speculation.

Since Richter has some area bona fides (he went to high school in Lake Placid and owns a home in the Adirondack Mountains), we thought we’d check in with him to see if he’d have any interest in pursuing the Democratic nomination to succeed GOP Rep. John McHugh in the open seat race in the 23rd District. His response, via e-mail:

“I am flattered to be mentioned for the position but will not seek office at this time for family reasons.  I do hope to have an opportunity to be a public servant in the future, however.”

Someday, sports fans.

RaceTracker: NY-23

For a while today, this story seemed to be dying down; Gov. Mark Sanford had contacted his office and was just “hiking the Appalachian Trail” (except without his security detail, or any notice to his staff or his Lt. Governor). It’s now clear, however, that “hiking the Appalachian Trail” was just a weird metaphor for, well, something else. Sanford’s vehicle was located at the Atlanta Airport, which is 80 miles from the start of the trail.

On Tuesday, sources told News 4’s Nigel Robertson that a state vehicle is missing and was tracked down, not to the Appalachian Trail, but to the Hartsfield-Jackson Airport in Atlanta.

Sources told Robertson that a federal agent spotted Sanford in the airport boarding a plane. Robertson was told that the governor was not accompanied by security detail….

WYFF News 4 has not yet confirmed where the plane was going or how the governor got to the airport, but it is clear there are two very different stories.

News 4 called the governor’s office, and was told again by staffers that they stand by their original statement that the governor is hiking the Appalachian Trail. They did not want to comment on this story.

UPDATE: CNN thinks they’ve found Sanford’s car, but at the airport in Columbia, SC – not Atlanta.

RaceTracker: SC-Gov

It’s no secret that Senate Republicans have hungrily eyed Delaware’s at-large Rep. Mike Castle to pursue the state’s open Senate seat in 2010, and there’s no doubt that Castle would be a major force to be reckoned with should he enter the race. Susquehanna (not the most reputable GOP polling firm) released a poll in May showing Castle leading Democrat Beau Biden by a 55-34 margin, and the much more reputable Public Policy Polling gave Castle an 8-point edge over Biden, Jr. in March. Republican recruiters have been courting Castle heavily, and one local reporter is breathlessly claiming that a Castle candidacy is as good as gold.

The only problem? Castle sure doesn’t sound like a candidate… for anything:

Castle knows his likely opponent would be Biden’s son Beau, Delaware’s attorney general, now serving as a National Guard lawyer in Iraq.

The Biden dynasty draws national money. Meanwhile, says Castle, “my wife talks about beaches in Florida. I don’t know if I want to run for the House again, let alone for the four years of Biden’s term.”

But Castle’s the last proven vote-getter the Republicans have in the First State. If he steps down, Democrats could take both Senate and House posts. “That’s the quandary.”

It sounds to me like Castle is mulling the Senate race as a courtesy to his friends in Washington… but he clearly would rather be catching some rays with his wife. He says that he’ll deliver his final decision “by the end of summer”.

RaceTracker: DE-Sen | DE-AL

• CO-Sen: Mark Udall endorsed his fellow Senator Michael Bennet yesterday. Superficially, that’s completely unsurprising, but it’s an indicator that we’ve gotten to the point where it seems unlikely anyone else from the Democratic political establishment (former state House speaker Andrew Romanoff, for instance) might challenge the appointed Bennet in the primary.

• FL-Sen: I predicted yesterday that billionaire Tom Golisano’s interest in the Florida senate race wouldn’t last long, and now it doesn’t even seem to have ever existed. He let the Buffalo News know today that he’d never publicly expressed any interest, and that nobody (starting with Politics1, where the rumor started) ever called to ask him about it before launching the story.

• ME-Gov: After months of nothing happening in the Maine governor’s race, now we have two candidates. Democratic State Rep. Dawn Hill, who represents part of York County and owns a dog day care in her spare time, announced she’s in the race. She may be a long shot in the primary against former AG and former state House speaker Steve Rowe, who quietly filed his candidacy papers last week.

• FL-09: Our condolences to the family and friends of Phyllis Busansky, who died unexpectedly last night. She ran a solid race in FL-09 in 2006, and was elected Hillsborough County’s Supervisor of Elections in 2008.

• NC-08: With the NC GOP trying to recover the fumble on their attempts to recruit Carolina Panthers star Mike Minter to go up against freshman Rep. Larry Kissell, a new possibility has emerged: former state Rep. Mia White (who was Mia Morris while in the legislature). She’s been pretty far out of the loop lately, though… she has been living in Singapore, where she’s been American politics commentator for what she called their equivalent of CNN.

• NY-23: One more Republican has declared his interest in the open seat in the 23rd, who wasn’t on anybody’s watch list: veterinarian Gary Cooke. In a dairy-heavy district, Cooke seems primarily focused on farm issues.

• OR-04: Springfield mayor Diamond Joe Quimby Sid Leiken has already run into some trouble in his nascent campaign against Rep. Peter DeFazio: he’s the subject of a campaign finance complaint from Democrats. Leiken paid $2,000 to a company called P&G Marketing and Research for “surveys and polls,” but no such firm exists and the address is the same as his mother’s real estate business. While Leiken didn’t return calls on the matter, Leiken’s campaign manager said that he has receipts for all of the campaign’s expenditures… except for this one.

• PA-03: You know your campaign wasn’t meant to be, when the first mention your campaign gets in the press is your Facebook announcement that you’re dropping out of the campaign. The GOP’s lone challenger against freshman Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper, social studies teacher Brian Lasher, dropped out, leaving the GOP without a candidate, although businessman Steve Fisher is still thinking about it. Hard to fathom the GOP giving up without a fight in such a traditionally swingy district.

• Cal-St. Ass.: Fresno-area Assemblyman Juan Arambula left the Democratic caucus yesterday to become an independent, supposedly over budget issues (although water issues may be a major subtext). This tips the balance to a still comfortable 49-29-1 for the Democrats, but with Arambula gone they’re now five votes short of the 2/3s necessary to do anything useful with the budget. Arambula is term-limited out in 2010, so the fallout is contained.

• Demographics: Nate Silver has, as always, a fascinating graph as part of a piece on changing migration rates in the last few years. Migration from blue states to red states has slowed significantly in recent years, probably because of the economic slowdown. The plus side is that this may salvage a few Democratic House seats in 2010.

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (6/17-19, registered voters, 1/17-18 in parens):

Jennifer Brunner (D): 40 (34)

Rob Portman (R): 32 (42)

Undecided: 29 (24)

Lee Fisher (D): 41 (39)

Rob Portman (R): 32 (41)

Undecided: 27 (20)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

The trendlines are a little musty, but they look quite good for the Democrats, despite pretty mediocre favorable ratings (low thirties on either side of the equation for both Dems). Brunner’s faves are largely unchanged, but Fisher’s seen a bit of a slide. Portman’s favorables are also worse, though – 22-34 now, after a 28-23 reading in January. The samples are also a little different – it was 45D-35R-20I in the first poll, and 50D-35R-15I in this one.

Research 2000/Daily Kos will likely be in the field here soon. We will hopefully shed some light on the baffling OH-Gov polling disparities, and we’ll probably also test the Senate Dem primary.

RaceTracker: OH-Sen

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Ohio finds both potential Democratic candidates with solid leads in the race to replace retiring Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH).

Lee Fisher (D) leads Rob Portman (R), 41% to 32%, and Jennifer Brunner (D) has a similar 40% to 32% advantage over Portman.

http://www.publicpolicypolling…

In looking at the internals, both the Dems have an even net approve/disapprove (32/32 and 32/31 respectively), whereas Portman is underwater at 22/34.

Ohio looks like a solid top 3 pick-up for now…

Nevada Redistricting

According to the population estimates, I decided that Nevada would get a new congressional district even though it was hard hit by the foreclosure crisis. My goal was to create a new Democratic district while protecting newly elected Democrat Dina Titus in the 3rd Congressional district. I believe I succeeded  in packing most of the Republican areas into one district. I made the map with Dave’s Redistricting App which is really fantastic. My next map should be either Louisiana or New Jersey. Enough talk, here is the link to my maps: http://frogandturtle.blogspot….

District 1 Shelly Barkely (D) (Blue)

I gave Barkley a strong Democratic district containing much of Las Vegas and neighborhoods in North Las Vegas with high minority populations. Still, I believe I kept enough heavily Democratic areas out of the 1st to protect Titus and strengthen the 2nd. The district is still minority majority and I believe Barkley or any Democrat will have no trouble winning this district. It probably voted about 66% for Obama. The racial stats are 12% Black, 31% Hispanic, 8% Asian and 46% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 2 No Incumbent (Green)

This was the new district I created that I hope will vote Democratic. The current representative is Dean Heller and I put his home in Carson City outside of the district. I hope that will deter him from running here. Even though most of his district is here, it is the more Democratic parts. The district stretches from the northern border, through Reno, along the western border and finally goes to take in some Democratic neighborhoods in Clark County (Las Vegas.) I think 20% of the district is in Clark County and 60% is in Reno. This would almost ensure that if a Democrat is elected, he or she will be from Reno. Looking at the numbers, Obama won the northern part of the district by about 13,000 votes but I am not sure of his margin in the Clark County portion. I estimate that he still won about 53%-55% of the vote in this district. That percentage should be enough to elect a Democrat. The racial stats for this district are 3% Black, 24% Hispanic, 6% Asian and 64% White. Status is Lean Democrat.

District 3 Dina Titus (D) (Purple)

I definitely strengthened Dina Titus enough by giving her some precincts that were formerly in the 1st district and by taking out Republican parts of Henderson and the outer Las Vegas suburbs. I believe the district is too Democratic for Jon Porter. He will probably run for the Republican 4th district. Dina Titus should worry about nothing except that she might face a minority candidate in the primary. Whatever way it goes, this district is in Democratic hands for the foreseeable future. It probably voted around 61% for Obama. The racial stats are 10% Black, 31% Hispanic, 8% Asian and 49% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 4 Dean Heller (R) (Red)

This district is where I put most of the Republicans. It looks like it is centered in the “Cow Counties” or the counties outside of Clark and Reno Counties. Actually, it is based in Clark County and takes in Republican parts of Henderson. Even though I put Dean Heller’s home in the 4th district, I believe that Jon Porter or another Clark County Republican would run for this district. Dean Heller is a relatively new representative and he would definitely face trouble. Since most of the constituents live in Clark County, Heller will have to struggle to introduce himself to the people there. Still, I think it would be easy for a Clark County Republican to brand Heller as a Republican from the far corner of the state. Heller will probably lose but the district will most likely remain Republican. It probably voted about 56% to 59% for McCain. Racial stats are 4% Black, 18% Hispanic, 5% Asian and 70% White. Status is Safe Republican

Survey USA released a new batch of approval ratings for governors based on polls taken June 16. Iowa’s Chet Culver was at 42 percent approval and 51 percent disapproval. The previous SUSA poll in Iowa, taken in late April, found similar numbers for Culver: 42 percent approval and 50 percent disapproval.

CORRECTION: I did not realize that SUSA also conducted a poll in late May, which showed somewhat better numbers for Culver: 48 approve, 47 disapprove.

Probably this is just statistical noise, and Culver’s support is somewhere in the 40s. Alternatively, if you have some hypothesis that would explain why the governor’s support rose in May but dropped by mid-June, please post a comment.

Click here to see all of SUSA’s approval numbers for Culver since he became governor.

It would be nice if some other polling firm released a new Iowa survey soon.

Having noticed that Culver’s SUSA numbers bounced up last May and June after being in net negative territory from February through April 2008, I wondered whether a “legislative session effect” might have dragged him down from February through April of this year. Either that was not the case, or the weaker economy this year has prevented the governor from getting a post-session bounce.

Approval ratings in the low 40s are outside the comfort zone for an incumbent, but I wouldn’t hit the panic button yet. SUSA has tended to measure Culver’s support at lower levels than some other pollsters, and most governors have seen their approval ratings slip during the past year, presumably because of the economy and the fiscal problems affecting almost every state.

I couldn’t find any breakdown of Culver’s support among Democrats, Republicans and independents either at this site or on Survey USA’s site. If anyone has those numbers, please post a comment or send me an e-mail (desmoinesdem AT yahoo.com). I still think a large number of Democrats and independents who may not “approve” of Culver would choose him in a heartbeat over Chris Rants or Bob Vander Plaats, who are most committed to running for governor.

We’ll have a better idea of the governor’s re-election prospects when we see polling of head-to-head matchups with potential Republican challengers. Some of the Republicans considering this race would be stronger than others in terms of personal appeal or fundraising (though Culver will probably be able to outspend even the best GOP fundraisers).

Finally, keep in mind that despite ups and downs in the economy, Iowa hasn’t voted an incumbent governor out of office since 1962.

Share any thoughts about Culver’s chances or the GOP gubernatorial primary in this thread. Who has the potential to overcome Vander Plaats’ head start on campaigning? Can Rants reinvent himself as a likable politician? Who would benefit from a more crowded Republican field? Will the GOP primary be negative enough to do lasting damage to the eventual nominee?

Final note: Swing State Project currently considers the Iowa governor’s race to be safe D. I would rate it as likely D, and the Culver-skeptic contingent at Bleeding Heartland would probably argue for a lean D rating.

This piece in Roll Call mentions a couple of potential candidates on both sides to replace Charlie Melancon, who looks all but set to challenge Sen. David Vitter. It got James and me thinking: Why not take a look at all the state legislators whose districts are covered, either in whole or in part, by LA-03? So, after poring over maps and sifting through precinct results, we’ve come up with two lists – one for state senators, the other for state reps.

Note that some of these legislative districts are only partly within LA-03, and therefore some of these folks might not even live in the 3rd CD and/or may only represent a tiny slice of it. Interestingly, despite this area’s conservative bent, it’s represented by quite a few Democrats at the state level. This isn’t an uncommon phenomenon in many parts of the South (look at AL-05 in 2008, for instance), so hopefully this means we have something of a bench to look to here.

Of course, these lists don’t include countless other elected officials, prominent figures, and wealthy dudes who might make a run. But they are a good starting point – former state legislators make up over half of the House (PDF). So if you know anything about any of these folks, please let us know in comments.

RaceTracker: LA-03

 

Mo’ money, mo’ problems. Here are the May fundraising reports for the six major party committees (April numbers are here):

*Note: The NRSC’s receipts for the month of May include a $1 million transfer from the RNC.